Quotes of the Day:
"It is the repeated performance of just and temperate actions that produces virtue."
- Aristotle
"Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them."
- William Shakespeare
"To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
1. Work at North's airport suggests major missile launch
2. Another ICBM test may be in near future, source says
3. Yoon to hold one-on-one meeting with Moon for 'heart-to-heart' discussion
4. Top security advisers of U.S., China meet over N. Korea, Russia
5. S. Korea to provide non-lethal military, medical supplies to Ukraine
6. Moon sets out to self-award the Grand order of Mugunghwa
7. US gov't raises alarm for financial institutions against business with North Korea
8. President-elect Yoon faces limited choices over North Korea
9. Why Ukraine matters to South Korea
10. Limiting presidential powers
11. Ex-vice foreign minister to lead foreign affairs on Yoon’s transition team
12. Large-scale military drills and THAAD are back on the table in South Korea
13. How North Korea Views the Ukraine Crisis
14. U.S. carrier displays air power over Yellow Sea as North Korea may be set to test long-range missile
15. Why Kim Jong Un Wants the World to See New ICBM Tests as Satellite Technology
16. Young Voters Split Along Gender Lines in Presidential Election
1. Work at North's airport suggests major missile launch
The regime is showing us what they want us to see. What conclusion do they want us to draw from this?
Tuesday
March 15, 2022
Work at North's airport suggests major missile launch
Two photographs of Sunan Airport near Pyongyang taken on March 6, left, and March 11 by the earth observation satellite Sentinel-2A show that North Korea has been installing concrete strips between runways in preparation for a potential missile launch. [NEWS1]
Satellite imagery of an airfield near Pyongyang suggests North Korea could be preparing another major missile launch, following two recent ballistic missile tests that South Korea and the United States said were experimental launches for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system.
The observation comes as U.S. and Chinese diplomats met in Rome to discuss the regime’s missile launches, in addition to discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan.
A South Korean intelligence source told the JoongAng Ilbo Sunday that Seoul had detected signs that the North was gearing up to launch additional missiles from Sunan Airport, which was captured in the satellite photographs.
Analysis of the runway shows that the North has been laying down concrete surfaces since March 5, with the area covered expanding and later decreasing in what analysts say could be an attempt to disguise the launch location.
According to Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, in an interview with Voice of America on Monday, the concrete strips recently spotted via satellite were likely aimed at reinforcing the surface of the runway to prevent damage caused by the weight of a transporter erector launcher (TEL) and engine ignition, as well as to ensure the missile trajectory was not compromised by a faulty launch surface.
“This is an extraordinarily heavy TEL, if it's fully fueled. How often do you put a strip of concrete in between runways or taxiways?” Bennett said. “When the engine cuts in, it's putting tremendous pressure on the surface underneath the missile. And if it gets up on some dirt road or something, they're risking that the missile will wind up taking off on a bad trajectory.”
Observations of the North’s possible launch preparations came as U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Chinese official Yang Jiechi in Rome, Italy to discuss a range of issues in U.S.-China relations.
While much of the seven-hour meeting, described as “intense,” focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pair also discussed North Korea, according to a senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“Obviously, we have serious concerns about the recent escalatory actions that we have seen from the DPRK,” the official said in a telephonic press briefing, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
“[Sullivan] was clear with Director Yang not only about those concerns, but also about the steps that we believe are necessary in this moment and the work that we hope to be able to engage with China on,” the official added.
Yang is a Chinese Community Party Politburo member and director of the office of the foreign affairs commission.
Two of North Korea’s recent missile tests — on Feb. 27 and March 5 — were touted by the regime as satellite development tests.
They were later said by Washington and Seoul to have been experimental launches for a new ICBM. Washington placed fresh sanctions Friday on two Russian individuals and three entities for enabling North Korea's weapons program.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
2. Another ICBM test may be in near future, source says
Tuesday
March 15, 2022
Another ICBM test may be in near future, source says
Satellite image of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Korea taken on March 4 shows recent activities. The image was provided by Arms Control Wonk. [NEWS1]
Pyongyang may be planning more intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests for as early as sometime this week, according to a source.
“We have detected signs that North Korea will launch additional missiles in the vicinity of Pyongyang Sunan Airport, where it recently launched [an ICBM],” a senior-ranking government official told the JoongAng Ilbo on Sunday. “They are preparing for a launch that can happen any minute, and South Korean and U.S. authorities are monitoring the possibility of a launch that can happen as early as sometime this week.”
Among its flurry of weapons tests this year, with seven in January alone, two tests — on Feb. 27 and March 5 — were touted by the regime as satellite development tests.
They were later confirmed by Washington and Seoul to have been experimental launches for a new ICBM. Washington placed fresh sanctions Friday on two Russian individuals and three entities for enabling North Korea's weapons program.
Under successive United Nations Security Council resolutions, the North is prohibited from conducting tests of ballistic missile technology. Satellite launches are also prohibited as they employ the same technology.
North Korea had agreed to a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and longer range missile testing in late 2017. The regime in January, however, suggested an end to the moratorium.
The North’s resumption of weapons tests has been coupled with activities at its major nuclear test site.
Activities believed to be the restoration of part of a tunnel that was blown up at the North's Punggye-ri nuclear test site have been detected recently, according to the Ministry of National Defense.
Punggye-ri in North Hamgyong Province is the site of six nuclear tests from 2006 to 2017.
“Recently, at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Korea, an unknown activity presumed to be the restoration of part of a tunnel that was blown up on May 24, 2018, was identified,” the ministry told a group of reporters on Friday. “The authorities of the Republic of Korea and the United States are closely monitoring related activities in close cooperation.”
Satellite images released last week by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies showed signs of construction of new buildings and repairs of existing buildings at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.
North Korea demolished its Punggye-ri nuclear test site in May 2018 in the presence of reporters from South Korea, China, Russia, Britain and the United States.
The demolition of the nuclear testing site was seen as a show of North Korea’s sincerity toward denuclearization as it planned the first summit between then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which took place in June 2018.
But questions were raised by experts including those at the UN on whether the site’s tunnels stood intact.
The test site has four main tunnels, one of which was the site for the North’s first nuclear test in 2006, and another the site for the other five through 2017.
It was the other two main tunnels’ entrances that were destroyed in May 2018. Whether the tunnels themselves were destroyed could not be confirmed visibly.
Joseph Bermudez, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, told Radio Free Asia on Friday that it may take just “three to six months” to rebuild the tunnels at the site, had their destructions in 2018 been only partial.
According to military sources, the tunnels at the site spread out horizontally for some hundreds of meters, before rounding in a curve at the end, like a fish-hook. The shape is intended to ensure the shock of a nuclear test stays within the tunnel.
Tectonic shocks have been unavoidable, however, and five earthquakes, including a 2.1-degree quake on March 4, took place within the last four weeks at North Hamgyong Province, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration.
BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
3. Yoon to hold one-on-one meeting with Moon for 'heart-to-heart' discussion
It is interesting that President-elect Yoon will be asking President Moon to pardon former President Lee.
(LEAD) Yoon to hold one-on-one meeting with Moon for 'heart-to-heart' discussion | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details, quotes)
By Kim Deok-hyun
SEOUL, March 15 (Yonhap) -- President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol will hold a one-on-one lunch meeting with President Moon Jae-in on Wednesday with no aides in attendance for a "heart-to-heart" discussion, his spokesperson said.
Yoon plans to use the meeting to ask for a special pardon for imprisoned former President Lee Myung-bak, spokesperson Kim Eun-hye told reporters during a press briefing. Lee has been serving a 17-year prison term for embezzlement and bribery.
"The meeting will serve as an occasion where they can hold a heart-to-heart discussion," she said. "President-elect Yoon has long thought that he would ask for a pardon for former President Lee Myung-bak, and we hope this meeting will serve as a chance for national unity and reconciliation."
Wednesday's meeting will mark their first since June 2020, when Yoon was prosecutor general.
A range of issues are expected to be on the table, including the presidential transition, coronavirus responses and North Korea.
Cheong Wa Dae also said that Moon and Yoon will hold the luncheon meeting without aides in attendance.
The meeting comes a week after Yoon of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) won a tight election by a razor-thin margin. Yoon's election was partly viewed as a referendum on the liberal Moon Jae-in administration.
Yoon served as a top prosecutor under the Moon administration, but their relationship took a downturn when the prosecution under Yoon launched a corruption investigation into Cho Kuk, one of Moon's closest aides and his pick for justice minister.
Yoon joined the PPP last year and became the conservative party's presidential candidate.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
4.Top security advisers of U.S., China meet over N. Korea, Russia
Now that was quite a meeting. I wonder if Mr Sullivan has read Admiral C. Turner Joy's book, How Communists Negotiate.
Excerpt:
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the meeting was "intense" and seven-hours long.
(LEAD) Top security advisers of U.S., China meet over N. Korea, Russia | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from White House Press Secretary Psaki, additional information in paras 8-13; ADDS photo)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, March 14 (Yonhap) -- U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met Monday with China's Yang Jiechi to discuss various current issues, including North Korea, a senior U.S. official said.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the meeting was "intense" and seven-hours long.
"Obviously, we have serious concerns about the recent escalatory actions that we have seen from the DPRK," the official said in a telephonic press briefing, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"The national security advisor was clear with Director Yang not only about those concerns, but also about the steps that we believe are necessary in this moment and the work that we hope to be able to engage with China on," added the official.
The White House said the Sullivan-Yang meeting was held in Rome, Italy, mainly to discuss Russia's ongoing aggression on Ukraine. Yang is a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Community Party and director of the office of the foreign affairs commission.
The U.S. said Thursday that North Korea's two missile launches, staged Feb. 27 and March 5 (Seoul time), were aimed at testing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system, also noting the recalcitrant country may conduct a full-fledged ICBM test in the future.
North Korea conducted nine rounds of missile tests since the start of the year, including seven in January that marked the largest number of missile launches it conducted in any single month.
White House spokesperson Jen Psaki noted the North's recent tests did not involve any "fanfare" unlike dozens of missile tests it had conducted in the past.
"We have seen North Korea escalate its testing in different periods over the last four presidents. And this time, North Korea had these tests unlike the fanfare over past tests, but I don't have anything to predict in terms of the future," she said when asked if a North Korean ICBM test was imminent.
Psaki, however, highlighted the U.S. making a rare revelation of its intelligence.
"What I can tell you is that, as you know, last week we proactively decided to reveal information publicly about recent tests and share it with allies and partners, as well as Congress," she said.
North Korea has claimed its two missile tests on Feb. 27 and March 5 had been aimed at developing a reconnaissance satellite.
Pyongyang has often disguised its ICBM tests as satellite launches in the past, and U.S. officials have noted it may again try to disguise its future tests as "space launches."
U.S. Special Representative for the DPRK Sung Kim earlier called on China to condemn North Korea's missile provocations and help bring North Korea back to the dialogue table.
The senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Sullivan and Yang have agreed to continue their discussions, "building on recent discussions between our special representative Sung Kim and the Chinese special representative Liu Xiaoming in order to further discuss specific ways that the United States and China may be able to press the DPRK on a different path."
Pyongyang has avoided denuclearization talks since late 2019. It also remains unresponsive to recent U.S. overtures.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. S. Korea to provide non-lethal military, medical supplies to Ukraine
Come on South Korea. Step up. You are a military power, so provide lethal military assistance. And agree to the request from Ukraine to provide Cyber support.That will pay off for South Korea as well as it will improve South Korean cyber capabilities to deal with north Korea too.
S. Korea to provide non-lethal military, medical supplies to Ukraine | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, March 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea announced Tuesday it has decided to provide Ukraine with non-lethal military supplies, such as bulletproof helmets and blankets, as well as medical items.
Seoul's planned logistics support package worth 1 billion won (US$804,181) consists of about 20 items, including tents, meals, ready-to-eat (MREs), bedspreads and first-aid kits, the defense ministry said in response to Kyiv's repeated calls for support to help repel Russia's attack.
"As for details including how to ship them and other specific issues, (related) consultations are under way," Boo Seung-chan, the ministry's spokesperson, told a regular press briefing.
The ministry said last week that it sees "limits" in offering lethal arms to Ukraine in an apparent rejection of the country's request for weapons support.
Ukraine has requested humanitarian and military support, reportedly including rifles, anti-tank missiles and other weapons, from a number of other countries, as it is staging a desperate fight against the invading Russia.
Last month, Ukraine's top envoy in Seoul, Dmytro Ponomarenko, made a specific call for South Korea to help strengthen his country's cybersecurity capabilities.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
6. Moon sets out to self-award the Grand order of Mugunghwa
???? Awarding an award to yourself?
Moon sets out to self-award the Grand order of Mugunghwa
Posted March. 15, 2022 08:01,
Updated March. 15, 2022 08:01
Moon sets out to self-award the Grand order of Mugunghwa. March. 15, 2022 08:01. 4g1@donga.com,tree624@donga.com.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in is known to be preparing to award himself and his wife the Grand Order of Mugunghwa, the highest order awarded by the government of Korea, triggering controversy over the justification of the award amidst accelerating number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as high cost of up to 68 million won per award.
According to government sources on Monday, the Ministry of Interior and Safety made two sets of the Grand Order of Mugunghwa last year. “The sets had been created in September by the Korea Minting and Security Printing Corporation. We will take steps for the awarding, tabling the agenda at the Cabinet Meeting, after we receive contact from the Blue House. Korean commendation laws stipulate that the award is the highest order awarded by the Government of Korea, which can be awarded to the spouse of the President, head, and spouse of head of an allied country.
It is known that it takes 68.24 million won in production costs for the award, which is made up of gold, silver, rubies, and amethysts. A total of 136.47 million won of budget was spent to create two sets.
Production costs of the same award given to former President Lee Myung-bak in 2013 was around 50 million won, but production costs rose 40% due to higher gold prices. Former President Park Geun-hye received the award, which cost around 40 million won due to smaller size as awards for female recipients were designed smaller back then. Changes were made to the law in 2016, applying the same size and specifications for women and men recipients, resulting in 50% higher production costs for President Moon and the First Lady compared to other former recipients. Production costs of the award had been subject to controversy, amounting to 40 times higher than the Order of Merit for National Foundation, which was awarded to patriot An Jung-gun and costs 1.72 million won in production.
There has been continued public controversy over the significance of the award, given that the award can be received by incumbent presidents. Up until former President Kim Dae-jung, the award was given upon inauguration, which was changed by former President Roh Moo-hyun when he changed it to the end of term saying that the award would be given in recognition of five years of serving public service. Former President Lee Mount-bak had also decided to self-award the recognition at the end of his term.
7. US gov't raises alarm for financial institutions against business with North Korea
US gov't raises alarm for financial institutions against business with North Korea
A North Korean flag flies on a mast at the Permanent Mission of North Korea in Geneva, Oct., 2014. The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday advised its financial institutions to be cautious about doing business involving North Korea. Reuters-Yonhap
The U.S. Treasury Department has advised the country's financial institutions to be cautious about doing business involving North Korea, citing a recent decision of an intergovernmental body tasked with combating money laundering and terrorism financing, the department's website showed Tuesday.
The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) kept North Korea and Iran on the list of "high-risk jurisdictions" in the March 4 move, according to the department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.
"With respect to the FATF-identified High-Risk Jurisdictions Subject to a Call for Action, specifically, counter-measures, financial institutions must comply with the extensive U.S. restrictions and prohibitions against opening or maintaining any correspondent accounts, directly or indirectly, for North Korean or Iranian financial institutions," it stated.
North Korea has been categorized as a "high-risk jurisdiction" by the FATF since 2011. (Yonhap)
8. President-elect Yoon faces limited choices over North Korea
He faces what a former senior US official once said to me. What he learned about north Korea policy is that every idea that can be tried in regards to negotiating with north Korea has been tried. The ideas can only be repackaged but there is nothing new under the sun.
President-elect Yoon faces limited choices over North Korea
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol speaks during a media conference at the National Assembly in Seoul, March 10. After winning a bitterly contested presidential election, Yoon will enter office facing a quickly growing North Korean nuclear threat ― and with few easy choices ahead to deal with it. AP-Yonhap
After winning a bitterly contested presidential election, South Korean conservative Yoon Suk-yeol will enter office facing a quickly growing North Korean nuclear threat ― and with few easy choices ahead to deal with it.
A former prosecutor with no foreign policy experience who kickstarted his political career nine months ago, Yoon will face a turbulent moment in global affairs and the decades-old standoff with the North, over which many experts see Seoul as having lost leverage under the policies of outgoing President Moon Jae-in.
It appears Yoon will be tested quickly, possibly even before he starts his presidency in May. North Korea often attempts to rattle new administrations in Washington or Seoul with major weapons demonstrations and has been signaling a resumption of long-range missile tests this year.
Yoon, who narrowly beat out his liberal ruling party rival in last week's election, has rejected pursuing ''talks for talks' sake'' and vowed to be sterner with Pyongyang, as the North's accelerating weapons tests in 2022 show a renewed strategy of brinkmanship to pressure Washington and Seoul into giving it badly needed relief from economic sanctions.
But despite Yoon's desire to do something different from the dovish government of Moon, there's no ''silver bullet'' policy his administration could adopt for dealing with North Korea, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha Womans University.
Improved ''inter-Korean relations'' will largely depend on the willingness of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to engage with diplomacy and negotiate sanctions relief for denuclearization steps, he said.
''Such willingness is unlikely to materialize until coronavirus risks decrease and domestic economic pressures increase,'' he explained.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri, North Korea, in this undated photo provided by the North Korean government, March 11. AP-Yonhap
North Korea has conducted nine missile launches in 2022 alone, with signs of more to come. State media said Friday that Kim Jong-un instructed officials to expand a satellite launch facility to fire a variety of rockets. His comments followed a pair of missile firings in recent weeks that the U.S. and South Korean militaries linked with the development of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system that could be tested at full range soon.
South Korea's military has also detected signs that the North is possibly restoring previously detonated tunnels at a nuclear testing ground that was last active in 2017.
North Korea's stubborn efforts to cement itself as a nuclear power and win economic benefits from a position of strength may present daunting challenges for Yoon. Amid a deepening freeze in nuclear negotiations with Washington and pandemic border closures, North Korea has clearly stated it has no intentions to include Seoul in discussions about its nuclear weapons program, which Kim sees as his strongest guarantee of survival.
Although Yoon plans to restore South Korea's leverage by bolstering its alliance with the U.S., North Korea seems further down the priority list for Washington, which is preoccupied with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and an intensifying rivalry with China.
Yoon, surrounded by foreign policy advisers who have served under Seoul's previous conservative governments, has called for maintaining sanctions and pressure until the North takes meaningful steps to wind down its weapons program.
He has vowed the resumption of major U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which were suspended or significantly downsized in recent years to make room for diplomacy with North Korea.
He also wants additional deployments of an advanced U.S. anti-missile system, called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, to better protect the capital Seoul from North Korean missile threats, a move that would infuriate both Pyongyang and Beijing. He plans to further bolster South Korea's defense by pursuing pre-emptive strike capabilities to deter North Korean attacks.
U.S. and South Korean army soldiers pose on a floating bridge on the Hantan River after a crossing operation, part of an annual joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States in Yeoncheon, south of the demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas, in this Dec. 10, 2015, file photo. AP-Yonhap
However, the Biden administration may not be able to support all of Yoon's demands and could seek a more assertive role from South Korea in the alliance that goes beyond responding to North Korea.
Washington may call for Yoon's government to take a stronger stance toward China, South Korea's biggest trading partner, or possibly to participate in a newly launched security partnership between the United States, Australia and Britain, according to Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha.
In the face of looming foreign policy dilemmas with China, North Korea and the U.S., Yoon will also have to navigate domestic political challenges as the National Assembly will still be controlled by the country's liberal party.
''South Korea has reached a point where it has to make a choice one way or another and be willing to pay the price for that choice,'' Park said. ''South Korea just can't afford to put everything on the line and strengthen its alliance with Washington unconditionally to confront Beijing.''
North Korea will be much less hesitant in its attempts to ''tame'' Yoon's upcoming government with a long-range rocket test, said analyst Kim Yeol-soo at South Korea's Korea Institute for Military Affairs. After taking office, Yoon will likely respond to serious North Korean provocations by staging joint military exercises with the U.S., which the North condemn as invasion rehearsals. That would make a swift resumption of diplomacy unlikely.
''If they fire a rocket, there will be no talks for at least six months,'' said Kim.
Moon, a son of North Korean war refugees, was credited for calming war fears triggered by North Korean nuclear and ICBM tests in 2017. He used the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics as an opening to set up summits with Kim and then lobbied hard for Kim's first meeting with then-U.S. President Donald Trump in June that year.
The diplomacy derailed after the second Kim-Trump meeting in 2019, when the Americans rejected North Korea's demand for a major release of U.S.-led sanctions against the North in exchange for a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
Kim has since vowed to strengthen his nuclear forces in the face of ''gangster-like'' U.S. pressure and rapidly expanded his arsenal of nuclear-capable short-range missiles threatening South Korea. The North also severed all cooperation with the South while expressing anger over Seoul's inability to wrest concessions from Washington on its behalf. The North blew up an empty inter-Korean liaison office in 2020 to demonstrate its displeasure.
The Moon government's largely muted response to North Korea's short-range missile tests and belligerent behavior since 2019 damaged Seoul's leverage with Pyongyang by eliminating a sense of reciprocity, Park said.
''South Korea's influence over North Korea is now very limited,'' Park said. ''North Korea wants to be recognized as a nuclear power foremost and believes all of its other problems will be taken care of from there. Inter-Korean relations are not a priority.'' (AP)
9. Why Ukraine matters to South Korea
The bottomline in these excerpts: South Korea must step up (as the President-elect Yoon wrote in his Foreign Affairs article last month).
Excerpts:
Korea needs to be steadfast in its opposition to aggression and condemn these crimes against humanity under any circumstances. Korea must be clear-minded in its analysis of the various factors influencing military decisions on the ground and how they affect the broader strategic considerations mentioned above.
Korea must be vigilant in its preparation for what its neighbors might be emboldened to do in case they learned the wrong lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Korea must also step up its diplomatic efforts to expand the common ground between major powers to reduce misunderstanding.
In the Northeast Asia region, there are high stakes for Korea in helping the U.S. and China manage their growing competition responsibly and in a peaceful manner. It is imperative that the South Korean President-elect make it a priority to review Korea's policy in light of these urgent and serious strategic implications from Ukraine upon taking office.
The need for cool-headed analysis is all the greater as polarized domestic politics has long muddled public discourse on what constitutes Korea's core national interests. South Korea must do everything it can to make sure it does not become another Ukraine. It requires our unity.
Why Ukraine matters to South Korea
By Kim Won-soo
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an outright affront to the international norm of non-aggression. It is wreaking humanitarian havoc on a scale never seen in Europe since the end of World War II. Its impact on the global economy is devastating as Russia and Ukraine are major players in global fuel and food supply chains. Following the invasion, oil prices are spiking and food supplies to those in need in the developing world are at risk.
There is no doubt that the longer the invasion lasts, the more serious the humanitarian and other socio-economic consequences will be. South Koreans are watching the volatile situation in Ukraine with a great deal of concern mostly for economic and humanitarian reasons.
South Korean media has primarily highlighted those aspects of the invasion while largely disregarding the strategic side. This approach, however, is mistaken because the greatest impact will likely be felt on the strategic side. Here are three strategic considerations that require South Korea's attention.
Firstly, the invasion reflects the strategic tectonic shifts occurring along the fault lines between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China, Russia and their allies on the other. The fault lines are now drawn in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, the South/East China Seas and the Korean Peninsula. This phenomenon is akin to the ideological confrontation of the Cold War era.
While many in the West believe the rise of China is to blame, the bigger culprit would be the restructuring of U.S. overseas commitments. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is a prime example. Those with an irredentist agenda on the fault lines may be tempted to change the status quo forcefully by exploiting the perceived power vacuum left by the retreating United States. This is why South Korea ― a country surrounded by powerful neighbors embroiled in intense territorial disputes ― must pay close attention to the developments in Ukraine.
Secondly, the Russian invasion raises the specter of a nuclear war, which has long been considered a taboo given how destructive nuclear weapons are. The invasion represents the first ever attempt by a nuclear power to alter the status quo by force, making threats of nuclear retaliation against any intervening power.
Russia is using the nuclear threat to deter any country from providing Ukraine with conventional military support. Without the protection of extended nuclear deterrence by a formal ally, Ukraine has fallen prey to brazen nuclear blackmail. South Korea, as a nuclear umbrella state, must learn the lesson and redouble its efforts to uphold the credibility of allied nuclear protection.
Last but not least, the invasion is the first serious stress test for the Biden administration's pivot to Asia. Before and after the invasion, Washington was quick to reassure the partners in Asia of its security commitments. It reaffirmed that the United States remained willing and ready to handle a two-front contingency.
But when it comes to demonstrating how robust one's commitment really is, actions speak louder than words. Extra effort is needed to prevent miscalculation and explore the space for diplomacy to narrow down the scope for misunderstanding. Unless Washington shows its resolve through action, those on the other side may miscalculate and embark on a risky venture.
These strategic undercurrents will continue to play out, but there are uncertainties as well. First of all, it is uncertain how the situation will evolve on the ground in Ukraine, although it is unlikely that President Putin will change course anytime soon. Therefore, it depends in large part on how determined the Ukrainian people are in opposing one of the top military powers of the world. It will also depend on how much the world can chip in diplomatically to help mediate the way-out. The type and extent of support provided by the U.S. and Europe will be crucial.
Regardless, one thing is clear. The developments in Ukraine will be closely watched by the major powers on both sides as well as the players along the fault lines. As one of the fault line states, South Korea cannot afford to remain an idle bystander to the Ukraine crisis. Korea should be clear in its solidarity with the Ukrainian people who are showing incredible courage to put up a seemingly unwinnable fight against a Goliath.
Korea needs to be steadfast in its opposition to aggression and condemn these crimes against humanity under any circumstances. Korea must be clear-minded in its analysis of the various factors influencing military decisions on the ground and how they affect the broader strategic considerations mentioned above.
Korea must be vigilant in its preparation for what its neighbors might be emboldened to do in case they learned the wrong lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Korea must also step up its diplomatic efforts to expand the common ground between major powers to reduce misunderstanding.
In the Northeast Asia region, there are high stakes for Korea in helping the U.S. and China manage their growing competition responsibly and in a peaceful manner. It is imperative that the South Korean President-elect make it a priority to review Korea's policy in light of these urgent and serious strategic implications from Ukraine upon taking office.
The need for cool-headed analysis is all the greater as polarized domestic politics has long muddled public discourse on what constitutes Korea's core national interests. South Korea must do everything it can to make sure it does not become another Ukraine. It requires our unity.
Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and high representative for disarmament. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Taejae Academy (Future Consensus Institute) and the chair professor of Kyung Hee University.
10. Limiting presidential powers
South Korean domestic politics.
Excerpt:
Abolishing the office is part of Yoon's campaign commitment to restrict the "unlimited" presidential authority and prevent the abuse of power by the head of state. It demonstrates the President-elect's strong determination to do away with the bad legacies of the emperor-like president as seen in his predecessors including former President Park Geun-hye, who was impeached and ousted for corruption and influence-peddling. We welcome such a move as it is designed to fulfill Yoon's pledge to restore fairness, justice, rule of law and democracy.
Limiting presidential powers
Yoon should restore democracy as promised
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has reaffirmed his plan to eliminate the office of the senior presidential secretary for civil affairs. The office has been used to "control political opponents and conduct clandestine probes into civilians under the excuse of verifying personnel," Yoon said during a meeting with Ahn Cheol-soo, chairman of the presidential transition committee, Monday. He stressed the need to terminate the bad legacy of former presidents.
The office has been in charge of looking into possible corruption involving the president's relatives and high-ranking officials and vetting Cabinet nominees. It has also been overseeing law enforcement agencies such as the prosecution and police, the National Intelligence Service, the Board of Audit and Inspection, and the National Tax Service. However, the presidential office has been criticized for wielding excessive power arbitrarily without being checked by any government agency.
Abolishing the office is part of Yoon's campaign commitment to restrict the "unlimited" presidential authority and prevent the abuse of power by the head of state. It demonstrates the President-elect's strong determination to do away with the bad legacies of the emperor-like president as seen in his predecessors including former President Park Geun-hye, who was impeached and ousted for corruption and influence-peddling. We welcome such a move as it is designed to fulfill Yoon's pledge to restore fairness, justice, rule of law and democracy.
Yoon has also vowed to appoint a special inspector charged with preventing corruption involving the president's family members and relatives as well as ranking officials. The post was introduced in 2014 under the Park administration, but has been left vacant since September 2016 under the Moon Jae-in government. The opposition People Power Party has called on Moon to fill the post to dig into alleged irregularities surrounding the presidential office.
Yoon is expected to carry out a sweeping overhaul of the government's structure with a focus on turning the presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae into a smaller and less powerful institution. For this, he has reaffirmed his campaign promise to relocate the presidential office to the Seoul Government Complex in Gwanghwamun, central Seoul.
We urge the transition committee to work out detailed measures to implement Yoon's promises in good faith. Yet, what is worrisome is that the prosecution will likely gain more authority in the process of restructuring government organizations. Yoon, a former prosecutor general, has already pledged to rid the justice minister of the right to command the prosecution for specific investigations. He has also vowed to reform the newly created Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) to limit its investigative rights.
This raises concerns over the possible concentration of law enforcement power on the prosecution, to the extent of the nation being called the "Republic of Prosecutors." The transition committee needs to prepare measures to strike a balance between the roles of the prosecution and the police. We hope the incoming administration will strengthen the rule of law in a balanced way so that the country can become a mature democracy.
11. Ex-vice foreign minister to lead foreign affairs on Yoon’s transition team
I think we all know Kim Sung-han from the many conferences Korea watchers attend. Note his relationship to the President-elect. I expect he will be the Minister of Foreign Affairs or National Security Advisor.
Excerpts:
Former vice foreign minister Kim Sung-han was appointed to lead the foreign affairs and security subcommittee,
Kim served as the second vice foreign minister in 2012 to 2013, and is a renowned international politics professor, currently teaching at Korea University.
Kim has been Yoon’s foreign policy mentor, and is known to be his longtime friend who went to the same elementary school as Yoon.
Other members of the subcommittee announced are Kim Tae-hyo, a political science and diplomacy professor at Sungkyunkwan University and Lee Jong-sup, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Ex-vice foreign minister to lead foreign affairs on Yoon’s transition team
President-elect Yoon travels to east coast cities hit by wildfire for encouragement
Published : Mar 15, 2022 - 14:45 Updated : Mar 15, 2022 - 15:05
From left: Former vice foreign minister Kim Sung-han, Kim Tae-hyo, a political science and diplomacy professor at Sungkyunkwan University and Lee Jong-sup, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (Yonhap)
More members of the presidential transition committee for president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol were announced Tuesday, including a former vice foreign minister and a former vice speaker among others.
In a press briefing, Yoon’s spokesperson Kim Eun-hye released some of the names of the chiefs and members for the three subcommittees --foreign policy and national security, economy, and politics and judiciary administration.
Former vice foreign minister Kim Sung-han was appointed to lead the foreign affairs and security subcommittee,
Kim served as the second vice foreign minister in 2012 to 2013, and is a renowned international politics professor, currently teaching at Korea University.
Kim has been Yoon’s foreign policy mentor, and is known to be his longtime friend who went to the same elementary school as Yoon.
Other members of the subcommittee announced are Kim Tae-hyo, a political science and diplomacy professor at Sungkyunkwan University and Lee Jong-sup, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
For the economy subcommittee, former vice finance minister Choi Sang-mok, who served in the post from 2016 to 2017, was appointed as the chief. The other two members are Kim So-young, an economics professor at Seoul National University and Shin Sung-hwan, a finance professor at Hongik University.
In the subcommittee in charge of politics and judiciary administration, a former lawmaker Yoo Sang-beom and Rep. Lee Yong-ho were tapped.
The personnel appointment list also includes former National Assembly vice speaker Park Joo-sun, who would be in charge of the preparation for Yoon’s inauguration ceremony.
According to the spokesperson, all personnel appointments are aligned to the principle stated to pursue meritocracy over all other factors, such as gender and region of origin.
As for the vetting process, the spokeperson said Yoon plans for his presidential office to only recommend personnel, and share the inspection job of the potential high-ranking officials and Cabinent members to other agencies -- such as the police or the prosecution -- with impartiality.
“In the United States, the FBI and other state entities take charge of it (personnel vetting), and we will also take that as reference,” Kim added.
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol greets with the residents who have been displaced from their homes due to a wildfire, in Uljin, North Gyeongsang Province on Tuesday. (Yonhap)
Meanwhile, President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol traveled to cities in the east coastal mountain areas where wildfire damaged facilities and displaced hundreds from their homes on Tuesday.
Yoon visited Uljin in North Gyengsang Province, where the country’s most devastating wildfire on record has displaced some 400 people from their homes.
There, he was briefed on the situation and recovery efforts by the Korea Forest Service and Uljin County governor. He also met with residents diplaced by the blaze.
They also talked about the fire around Donghae in Gangwon Province in north Uljin, which was started as an arson attack meant to cause severe damage.
Listening to requests from residents, Yoon said it is important for the government to make efforts to rebuild lost facilities and to aid fast recovery. He also promised to resume with the government’s plan to construct two nuclear reactors, Shin-Hanul No. 3 and 4 in Uljin, which would invigorate the regional economy and create jobs.
The Uljin blaze, which started on March 4 in the east coastal mountain areas, was only put out about 213 hours after it first broke out, marking the longest time ever since related data had been compiled in 1986. No casualties were reported, but some 643 facilities, including 319 homes, have been reported to have been damaged.
12. Large-scale military drills and THAAD are back on the table in South Korea
Large-scale military drills and THAAD are back on the table in South Korea
A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile defense system is pictured at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, Oct. 26, 2017. (Adan Cazarez/U.S. Air Force)
CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — Large-scale military drills with American troops and a U.S.-made missile defense system will be back on the table when South Korea’s new president is inaugurated in May.
President-elect Yoon Suk Yeol and the conservative People Power Party released a statement of their goals for his five-year presidency on Feb. 25. In the document, Yoon and the party called for a “strong national security and defense” bolstered by an ironclad South Korea-U.S. alliance.
Yoon’s policy plans specifically call for the restoration of “broken trust” in the alliance. South Korea President Moon Jae-in’s tenure has been marked by some unease during Donald Trump’s presidency, some of which was predicated on Trump’s claims of trade inequities between the United States and South Korea.
Trump, in private talks with advisers and closed-door speeches, threatened to withdraw some of the 28,500 U.S. troops from South Korea, citing an unequal cost-sharing agreement to station those forces in the country, according to multiple news reports and a White House memoir written by former national security adviser John Bolton.
Under the Trump and Moon administrations in 2018, the U.S. and South Korean militaries began conducting smaller computer simulations in lieu of large field exercises. The two leaders suspended the joint drills and described them as costly and detrimental to lowering tensions with North Korea.
South Korean president-elect Yoon Suk Yeol attends a campaign event in Seoul, South Korea, March 10, 2022. (People Power Party)
North Korea denounces the U.S.-South Korean military exercises and in articles published in its state-run newspaper describes them as “hostile” behavior.
Previous field exercises included around 11,500 U.S. troops and 290,000 South Korean troops operating from land, air and sea.
Yoon’s policy plan assures that his administration will “rebuild” the military partnership that would “normally conduct theater-level command post exercises and field training exercises.”
Yoon’s plans also appear to undercut Moon’s unwillingness to deploy an additional U.S.-manufactured missile defense system in the country. The $800 million Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, was deployed to South Korea in 2017 as a defensive measure against North Korean missiles.
The THAAD battery’s deployment prompted China to retaliate financially against South Korea, which resulted in an estimated $7 billion loss to the economy, according to South Korean lawmakers.
The president-elect’s plans call for “deploying additional THAAD units” to supplement South Korea’s missile defense system and to “normalize” those units’ readiness.
“Securing deterrence against the North Korean threat is a matter of sovereignty, and Seoul should remain open to additional deployments of THAAD in proportion to North Korea’s growing missile threat,” Yoon wrote in an opinion column published Feb. 8 in Foreign Affairs magazine.
Yoon, a former chief prosecutor, defeated ruling Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung by 0.73 percentage points, or around 247,000 votes, in South Korea’s presidential election on March 9. Yoon takes office on May 10.
Stars and Stripes reporter Yoo Kyong Chang contributed to this report.
13. How North Korea Views the Ukraine Crisis
I think it hardens the regime's resolve to never give up nuclear weapons.
Conclusion:
Both North and South Korea will also be paying attention to how the Ukraine crisis unfolds with respect to nuclear escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s placing of his nuclear forces on high alert – “special duty combat regime” – over a week ago highlights, for the North, the value of nuclear weapons for deterrent and posturing purposes. Yet the Russian invasion of Ukraine also underscores, for South Korea, the rapid pace at which conflict can escalate. As global eyes focus on Ukraine, it is likely that North Korea’s nuclear and missile aspirations would have continued, notwithstanding the invasion. Yet even if sanctions are imposed on North Korea, Pyongyang’s ability to evade them has hitherto not abated its quest for the recognized status of a nuclear power – which it believes it already has gained – and which only look set to continue over the course of the year.
How North Korea Views the Ukraine Crisis
Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed North Korea’s strategic calculus?
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“The Ukraine situation is never irrelevant to us.” With global attention focused on Europe, “there is a possibility that North Korea will conduct strategic provocations.” These were the words of the now South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, nearly three weeks before South Koreans took to the voting booths to elect a successor to Moon Jae-in.
Yoon’s message, an unusually potent remark from a then-presidential candidate, was clear. Not only will South Korea be paying attention to the ever-rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine, but so will North Korea. Yet to what extent will the Ukraine crisis have a direct impact on North Korea’s own foreign policy behavior, its actions toward the United States, and its attitudes toward its own missile and nuclear development? Moreover, with the recent spate of missile launches from North Korea, what might be its broader foreign policy objectives in 2022?
Global Crisis and Attention: When the Time Is Right
Earlier this year, as Pyongyang conducted seven rounds of missile testing in the month of January alone, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hastily remarked that North Korea was “trying to get attention,” asserting that Pyongyang has “done that in the past. They’ll probably continue to do that.” It was a far from well-timed response, let alone an accurate portrayal of North Korea’s complete motivations. We all know that Pyongyang does not simply want “attention”; rather, it seeks to extract political and economic concessions from its age-old adversary of the United States, its allies, and the broader international community, with the overarching goal of international recognition as a nuclear power.
One means by which the North has – historically – sought to leverage gaining political and economic concessions is by conducting provocations, with the hope that the international community will then listen, if not acquiesce, to Pyongyang’s wishes. The tit-for-tat exchange of provocative rhetoric between former U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – not least the infamous words of “fire and fury” – immediately come to mind.
Yet at a time when the international community remains focused on Eastern Europe, bellicose North Korean behavior is likely to have two impacts, neither of which offers any real concrete advances to Pyongyang’s broader foreign policy desires. First, of course, conducting missile tests of greater scope and sophistication will allow the North to continue buying time. With global attention directed to Eastern Europe, the likelihood that the international community will enforce further multilateral or bilateral sanctions on North Korea, if it continues missile tests, remains low. That said, should a further nuclear test be conducted – the last of which took place in 2017 – the international response may be markedly more potent. Second, and relatedly, however, this window of opportunity is small. Even if Pyongyang does not suffer the costs of sanctions, it is not gaining much, if anything, from the international community, at present.
Pyongyang’s Foreign Policy Priorities
Kim Jong Un’s speech to the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) in December 2021 made minimal mention of North Korea’s foreign policy priorities for the coming year, in contrast to his addresses – and New Year’s Addresses – of previous years. There was no explicit mention of the United States, nor lengthy focus on inter-Korean relations, for instance. That was a surprise, as these issues continue to remain significant for North Korea’s policy calculations.
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That said, Pyongyang’s stance toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, somewhat predictably supporting its former Cold War patron, has become increasingly vociferous with time, even if explicit commentary from state media on this issue has been far from regular. When the North does engage in rhetoric in this vein – most prominently blaming the United States as being the “root cause” of the Ukrainian crisis – such actions suggest that the Kim regime is taking a well-tried-and-tested leaf out of North Korea’s foreign policy playbook. It will use any criticism of the United States, such as from Russia, to further its portrayal of Washington as a belligerent actor, against which the North has every right to continue its military build-up.
Recent missile tests, while not a direct response to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, suggest a continuation of Pyongyang’s increasingly voracious pursuit of further missile – and potentially even nuclear – development this year, as demonstrated in January. North Korea claims that it conducted tests of “reconnaissance satellites” on February 26 and March 4. Yet a recent statement from the U.S. Department of Defense said that these tests crucially involved a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system, even if they “did not demonstrate ICBM range.”
The revelation of the Hwasong-17, arguably the world’s largest road-mobile liquid-fuel ICBM, on October 10, 2020 is firmly engrained in the minds of analysts and politicians alike, and raises the question of whether such technology could be used for subsequent tests. Indeed, Kim’s recent visit to the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground points to the likelihood of further missile tests, couched as part of North Korea’s satellite program, in the near future. In the usual euphemistic language, Kim made clear how further “satellite” launches would take place; the likelihood of Pyongyang disguising an ICBM launch as a “satellite” launch is high.
A Hawk in Seoul
How the international community will respond to North Korea’s actions, beyond rhetorical condemnation and imposition of sanctions remains unclear. On March 12, the United States imposed sanctions targeting North Korean individuals based in Russia, and Russian firms, responsible for supporting North Korean missile sales.
Yoon, the outspoken South Korean president-elect, has underscored his opposition to a South Korean foreign policy that is “tailored mostly to improving relations with North Korea,” alluding to the approach pursued by the Moon Jae-in administration over the past five years.
Even with a new South Korean president in office, inertia in South Korea’s policies toward North Korea, as I have argued previously, remains a likely possibility. Yet, the Ukraine crisis also affects South Korea’s foreign policy priorities more broadly. That South Korea has recently halted transactions with Russia’s central bank, and pledged to restrict exports to Russia, may seem a decisive move, but of note, Seoul only engaged in such sanctions following initial steps taken by the European Union and United States.
Both North and South Korea will also be paying attention to how the Ukraine crisis unfolds with respect to nuclear escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s placing of his nuclear forces on high alert – “special duty combat regime” – over a week ago highlights, for the North, the value of nuclear weapons for deterrent and posturing purposes. Yet the Russian invasion of Ukraine also underscores, for South Korea, the rapid pace at which conflict can escalate. As global eyes focus on Ukraine, it is likely that North Korea’s nuclear and missile aspirations would have continued, notwithstanding the invasion. Yet even if sanctions are imposed on North Korea, Pyongyang’s ability to evade them has hitherto not abated its quest for the recognized status of a nuclear power – which it believes it already has gained – and which only look set to continue over the course of the year.
14. U.S. carrier displays air power over Yellow Sea as North Korea may be set to test long-range missile
I cannot recall the last time a US carrier was in the West Sea (yellow sea). We can walk and chew gum at the same time despite what is going on around the world.
U.S. carrier displays air power over Yellow Sea as North Korea may be set to test long-range missile
SEOUL, March 15 (Reuters) - The USS Abraham Lincoln aicraft carrier led military exercises in the Yellow Sea, and air defence artillery at Osan air base intensified drills, U.S. forces in Asia said on Tuesday amid signs of an imminent North Korean long-range missile test.
Tension on the Korean Peninsula has been growing amid speculation North Korea could test its largest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at full range as soon as this week, after threatening to break a self-imposed 2017 moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear testing. read more
In a demonstration of air power in international airspace on Tuesday, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) mobilised fighter jets from the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group along with other regionally based Air Force planes.
U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) also said that in response to North Korea's recent missile tests its air defence artillery brigade at Osan air base had increased the intensity of its certification exercise to demonstrate its capabilities.
"DPRK's significant increase in its missile testing activity undermines peace, security and destabilises the Northeast Asia region," USFK said, using the acronym of North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"While this type of training is routinely conducted by U.S. Patriot batteries ... its increased intensity of its certification underscores the seriousness USFK takes against the DPRK's recent missile launch behaviour," USFK said.
On Friday, Washington and Seoul said in a rare joint announcement that North Korea had used its largest-ever ICBM in two recent launches. Pyongyang said the launches were conducted as preparations for a satellite launch. read more
Those launches did not demonstrate the missile's full range, and analysts said the North might have used only one stage of the missile or adjusted its fuel volume to fly at lower altitudes.
The missile system, the Hwasong-17, was unveiled at a military parade in 2020 and reappeared at a defence exhibition in October 2021. read more
"The ICBM launches by DPRK are a brazen violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions - as well as its international commitments - and pose a threat to regional neighbours and the international community," INDOPACOM said in a statement.
A spokesman for South Korea's defence ministry said it was also closely monitoring North Korea's movements and maintaining a robust combined readiness posture with the U.S. military.
Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Tom Hogue & Simon Cameron-Moore
15. Why Kim Jong Un Wants the World to See New ICBM Tests as Satellite Technology
The regime has always said satellite launches are for peaceful means. But the recent statements say they are for reconnaissance against the South and the US are indications of the regime's hostile policies.
So where is the Hwasong 16?
The North’s new ICBM, the Hwasong-17, was first unveiled at an October 2020 military parade. Rolling through downtown Pyongyang, the mammoth-size missile was the largest of its kind ever seen in the world, weapons experts believe. It may be sizable enough to fit five warheads inside, they say. It made a second public appearance at a defense expo attended by Mr. Kim last year.
Excerpts:
Both a military satellite and a more menacing ICBM were mentioned in a speech Mr. Kim delivered just over a year ago that detailed the country’s five-year strategic weapons policy.
The 38-year-old dictator promised “precise reconnaissance” with the satellite. He wanted the country’s next ICBM to surpass the Hwasong-15, which has an estimated range of 8,100 miles, and has shown a potential to hit anywhere in the U.S. after the 2017 launch. The next-generation version should travel more than 1,200 miles farther and be able to carry multiple warheads, Mr. Kim said.
Other pursuits on Mr. Kim’s weapons list, such as hypersonic technology and submarine-launched missiles, have already been tested in recent months.
“The element of surprise is occasionally useful, but what we’ve got with North Korea is really a case of Chekhov’s gun,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We’re now likely entering the act where that ICBM, the proverbial ‘gun,’ goes off.”
Why Kim Jong Un Wants the World to See New ICBM Tests as Satellite Technology
North Korea contends recent launches are surveillance satellites, while Washington and Seoul see them as test runs for long-range weaponry
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin
The Kim Jong Un regime, which currently has no space-based surveillance tools, covets military satellites that can spy on its enemies. North Korea has previously been accused of using the development of space technology as a guise for weapons development, and Mr. Kim has made no secret about his desire to develop a more powerful ICBM.
The U.S. and South Korea last week issued a warning that the Kim regime’s two most-recent launches had tested components of a new ICBM system. In the future, Pyongyang could try cloaking a full-range ICBM launch as a satellite test, Washington and Seoul said.
The suspected deception would bring some advantage to Pyongyang. By casting it as normal behavior pursuing satellite technology, the Kim regime could potentially gain early insights into how a brand-new ICBM system performs without the risk of drawing international blowback—especially from its main allies in China and Russia.
It is a different world today. But North Korea’s nuclear tests or ICBM launches in the past were deemed major enough provocations by Beijing and Moscow that they agreed to extra sanctions at the United Nations Security Council.
The joint Washington-Seoul disclosures, however, aren’t likely to dissuade the North, security experts say.
Mr. Kim recently toured the country’s satellite-launch facility and vowed that further tests were coming. Another launch could occur as early as this week, South Korean media reported on Monday, citing Washington and Seoul assessments.
“Nothing we say or do is going to affect Pyongyang’s game plan,” said Evans Revere, a former senior State Department official who follows Korean affairs at the Brookings Institution. “The most important thing to do now is to ramp up the diplomatic, economic, and military pressure and ensure that North Korea pays a major price for its actions.”
Kim Jong Un ordered upgrades to accommodate ‘large carrier rockets,’ during a recent visit to North Korea’s Sohae satellite-launch station, according to state media.
Photo: /Associated Press
Pyongyang has unleashed nine weapons tests this year alone, including the self-described satellite efforts. It has threatened a return to major provocations and appears to have begun restoring its main nuclear-test site, Seoul’s military says, a facility that the North had demolished four years ago as a goodwill gesture for denuclearization.
North Korea hasn’t launched a full-length ICBM or conducted a nuclear test in more than four years.
The joint Seoul-Washington ICBM disclosure came just hours after South Korea elected a new conservative president, Yoon Suk-yeol, who promises to take a harder line on the Kim regime’s weapons tests and human-rights violations. Under left-leaning President Moon Jae-in, whose five-year term ends in May, Seoul has given priority to engagement with Pyongyang and been hesitant to refer to the Kim regime’s missile tests as provocations.
Mr. Yoon’s victory means South Korea will align more with the Biden administration’s approach to North Korea disarmament, one that leaves open the door to diplomacy but also wields a firmer hand around Pyongyang’s misbehavior and seeks greater coordination with Japan, said Kim Young-jun, a professor at the Korea National Defense University in Seoul.
“Releasing this kind of ICBM information helps build the perception that North Korea is a bad guy,” said Mr. Kim, who advises the South Korean government on national security issues. “The Biden administration may recognize that with Yoon as president it is time to draw the line, with North Korea on the enemy side, not as a partner for negotiation.”
Top nuclear envoys for the U.S., South Korea and Japan spoke by phone Monday about the Kim regime’s ICBM-related tests. Sung Kim, the Biden administration’s special representative for North Korea, emphasized that the U.S. “will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and our allies,” according to a State Department spokesman.
North Korea’s official state media has yet to respond to the ICBM assessment. But one of the Kim regime’s propaganda mouthpieces on Sunday blasted South Korea for going into a “paranoiac convulsion.” Many countries launch military satellites, said Uriminzokkiri, a Pyongyang state-run website that releases propaganda targeting South Koreans.
“A crazy dog sees everything as a switch,” Uriminzokkiri said.
Pyongyang’s prior satellite launches were condemned by the U.N. Security Council, which saw them as ballistic-missile tests that helped improve the country’s nuclear program.
In a recent visit to North Korea’s Sohae satellite-launch station, Mr. Kim urged for upgrades to accommodate “large carrier rockets,” including expanding the test site for ground engines and adding extra fueling facilities, according to state media. Sohae should become “a starting line for space conquest for the future,” Mr. Kim was quoted as saying.
Both a satellite blasted into space or a weapon roaring halfway around the world need similarly powerful engines and bodies, weapons experts say. The controls used to point a camera at the Earth are close in nature to those required to aim multiple warheads on an ICBM, they say.
Forgoing imagery that is often aimed at boosting domestic morale, North Korea didn’t publish launch photos from the tests, which occurred on Feb. 27 and March 5 local time. They each reached altitudes of around 350 miles—or a fraction of the 2,800 miles flown by the Hwasong-15 ICBM that the North launched more than four years ago.
Even so, with a partial test Pyongyang can confirm capabilities or gather data should it be using the new ICBM system—a gradual approach it had taken before with previous generations of missiles, like with the Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14, said Scott LaFoy, a ballistic-missile and nuclear-weapons specialist at Exiger Federal Solutions, a risk-management firm.
“Longer is much harder, and more can go wrong,” Mr. LaFoy said. “Especially when a weapon is new, baby steps are important.”
The North’s new ICBM, the Hwasong-17, was first unveiled at an October 2020 military parade. Rolling through downtown Pyongyang, the mammoth-size missile was the largest of its kind ever seen in the world, weapons experts believe. It may be sizable enough to fit five warheads inside, they say. It made a second public appearance at a defense expo attended by Mr. Kim last year.
Both a military satellite and a more menacing ICBM were mentioned in a speech Mr. Kim delivered just over a year ago that detailed the country’s five-year strategic weapons policy.
The 38-year-old dictator promised “precise reconnaissance” with the satellite. He wanted the country’s next ICBM to surpass the Hwasong-15, which has an estimated range of 8,100 miles, and has shown a potential to hit anywhere in the U.S. after the 2017 launch. The next-generation version should travel more than 1,200 miles farther and be able to carry multiple warheads, Mr. Kim said.
Other pursuits on Mr. Kim’s weapons list, such as hypersonic technology and submarine-launched missiles, have already been tested in recent months.
“The element of surprise is occasionally useful, but what we’ve got with North Korea is really a case of Chekhov’s gun,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We’re now likely entering the act where that ICBM, the proverbial ‘gun,’ goes off.”
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin
16. Young Voters Split Along Gender Lines in Presidential Election
Excerpt:
"In past elections, voters split along region or generation. But in this presidential campaign, the candidates also used gender conflict to try to get votes," she said. "And now, even though the election is over, I worry that the issue is not going to be solved, that it's only going to worsen."
Young Voters Split Along Gender Lines in Presidential Election
Support for president-elect Yoon Seok-youl seems to have split younger voters along gender lines. Some 58.7 percent of men in their 20s voted for Yoon but 58 percent of women in the age group voted for his ruling-party rival Lee Jae-myung in the presidential election last week.
Throughout the campaign, both candidates targeted young supporters who face pressing issues such as unemployment, skyrocketing housing prices, and rising inequality. They were seen as critical swing voters in the neck-and-neck race.
But instead of these issues, gender politics emerged as a flashpoint, with both candidates making campaign promises that were seen as targeting young men, and it was the People Power Party's policies that resonated more.
In the midst of economic stagnation, some young men say they feel left behind, especially since military service remains compulsory for men only. Unemployment among men in their 20s is much higher than for women, and girls are now more likely to be accepted at university.
"On YouTube and online communities that men are exposed to, people talk about how men are treated unequally, how the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family is not doing its job and wasting money, how laws are created in favor of women," said one male voter in his 20s. "I think those kinds of sentiments are shared by many young men."
These young men found representation in Yoon's pledge to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, for example. A survey in January found that 64 percent of men support the ministry's abolition, compared to 40 percent of women.
"The communities I'm part of, young men in their 20s, every time we'd talk about something related to politics, they mostly went for the PPP," the voter continued.
Yoon also suggested throughout the campaign that gender inequality is not in fact a problem in Korea, claiming in the last presidential debate that structural sexism no longer exists. The day before the election, the Washington Post published an interview in which Yoon identified as a feminist, but after a backlash he retracted the statement, blaming it on an "administrative error" in his written responses.
While some young men did not see Yoon as a perfect candidate, they saw a vote for him as a way to express their dissatisfaction with the establishment. "This is a judgment of Koreans who feel very frustrated with the policies of the current administration," said another male voter in his 20s. "We want a change of government."
Young women, on the other hand, said they leaned toward Lee not so much out of his policies but out of disappointment with the PPP.
One young woman said she was frustrated with the "explicit anti-feminism" espoused by Yoon and other members of the party such as PPP party leader Lee Jun-seok. "As a woman in my 20s, gender was a really important issue that swayed my vote, but I didn't talk about it with many people," she said. "I hesitated to express my support for Lee, especially to my friends who were male -- I was afraid they would think I'm this radical feminist that supports a party just for identity reasons."
Many young women said they believe that gender inequality is still an important issue in Korea, which has the biggest gender pay gap in the OECD and the worst "glass ceiling index" in the Economist rankings published recently. And while young women are more likely to be employed than their male counterparts, they also have a higher workforce dropout rate in their 30s and 40s.
"In Korea in the 21st century, there is still discrimination against women," said one young woman. "We are not at a point where we can abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family."
In the final stretch of his campaign, Lee pivoted his strategy to appeal more to young women. On March 3, in response to Yoon's comment about structural sexism, Lee wrote on Facebook, "I will tackle the systematic gender discrimination in society and provide a better life for women."
He also hosted a rally for women with speakers such as Park Ji-hyun, a young activist fighting online sex crimes, and promoted pledges such as strengthening protections for victims of sexual violence.
But these moves may have come too late. As both candidates tried to appeal to young men throughout the election, some young women were left feeling unheard. "I think the candidates were more geared towards attracting young men than women," said Lee Su-jin, who is in her 20s.
"Five years ago, President Moon Jae-in said, 'I am a feminist president, I will be a feminist president, so women should vote for me,'" said another. "This year it was the opposite."
Some were drawn to the minor Justice Party's Sim Sang-jung, a labor and women's rights activist. The largest portion of Sim's 800,000 votes -- more votes than the 260,000 votes that separated Yoon and Lee -- was women in their 20s. "She is the only one who talked about women's issues seriously," said one female voter.
"Sim's campaign was beautiful. I know she couldn't win. But if more people voted for her, that could show Koreans that there are more people supporting her," said Lee So-jeong, who is in her 30s. "Do I have to vote for a president for the next five years or for the next generation?"
In the end, Yoon won by less than one percentage point, the tightest margin in Korea's history. Many see Yoon's victory as a referendum on the Moon administration, especially its failure to control runaway housing prices and youth unemployment, rather than a ringing endorsement of the conservatives.
Surveys showed that the economy and housing were the top two issues for this year's voters, and voters were attracted by Yoon's promises to deregulate the economy and build 2.5 million new homes. "As many people say, we had to choose a lesser evil," said a woman in her 20s. "I think people in their 20s have lost hope that the Minjoo Party can lead the country to a better economy."
One young woman who was frustrated by Yoon's comments on gender said she is nonetheless hopeful about his economic policies. "I'm not satisfied with how the Minjoo Party has run the country for the last five years," she said. "The previous conservative administrations' economic policies were alright, and I'm expecting that the PPP will run the economy better."
After the close-fought race exposed deep divisions along gender and generational lines, she worries these will only deepen in the wake of the election.
"In past elections, voters split along region or generation. But in this presidential campaign, the candidates also used gender conflict to try to get votes," she said. "And now, even though the election is over, I worry that the issue is not going to be solved, that it's only going to worsen."
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
