"Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of Warre, where every man is Enemy to every man; the same is consequent to the time, wherein men live without other security, than what their own strength, and their own invention shall furnish them withall. In such condition, there is no place for Industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain; and consequently no Culture of the Earth; no Navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by Sea; no commodious Building; no Instruments of moving, and removing such things as require much force; no Knowledge of the face of the Earth; no account of Time; no Arts; no Letters; no Society; and which is worst of all, continuall feare, and danger of violent death; And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short."

- Thomas Hobbes

"They are constantly trying to drive us into a corner because we have an independent position, because we maintain it and because we tell it like it is and don't engage in hypocrisy. But there is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our Western partners have crossed the line, playing the bear and acting irresponsibly and unprofessionally."

-- Vladimir Putin

I would never want Ukraine to be a piece on the map, on the chessboard of big global players, so that someone could toss us around, use us as cover, as part of some bargain.

-Volodymyr Zelensky

• Russian forces are unlikely to launch offensive operations to encircle Kyiv larger than the scattered Russian attacks observed northwest of Kyiv targeting Irpin on March 14 and Guta-Mezhyhirska on March 15 within the coming week but may launch further tactical attacks.
• Russian forces continued to assault Mariupol from the east and west.
• Russian forces did not conduct major offensive operations toward northeastern Kyiv in the past 24 hours.
• Russian forces attempting to encircle Kharkiv continue to face supply shortages, particularly regarding ammunition.
• The Russian military falsely claimed to have captured the entirety of Kherson Oblast on March 15 but did not conduct any major operations toward either Zaporizhya or Mykolayiv.
• Russia is unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious operation against Odesa until Russian forces secure a ground line of communication to the city, but Russian Naval Infantry retain the capability to conduct a landing along the Black Sea coast.

• Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
• Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
• Supporting effort 2—Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast; and
• Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.

• Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks;
• The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report that there is a high probability of Russian provocations aimed at involving Belarus in the war in Ukraine, though ISW continues to assess that Belarus is unlikely to open a new line of advance into Ukraine;
• Ukrainian counterattacks and operations by Territorial Defense Forces in northeastern Ukraine threaten Russia’s exposed line of communicating, requiring Russia to redeploy forces away from the offensive toward eastern Kyiv;
• Company and battalion-level attacks northwest of Kyiv likely represent the largest scale of offensive operations that Russian forces can currently undertake to complete the encirclement of the city;
• Russian troops may drive on Zaporizhya City itself within the next 48-72 hours, likely attempting to block it on both banks of the Dnipro River and set conditions for subsequent operations after Russian forces take Mariupol, which they are currently besieging.

“The general of a large army may be defeated, but you cannot defeat the mind of a peasant.” Confucius, 551-478, B.C.

"We thought that the dispatch of American forces to any of these threatened areas would, in fact, be self-defeating. The idea of strategic bombing as a weapon against communist infiltration and subversion would have been strange to us. What seemed to us desirable was to stimulate and encourage the rise of indigenous political resistance to communist pressures in the threatened countries. We believed that unless the people and governments of those countries operating through their own political systems, could be induced to pick up the great burden of this load, success was not likely. For us to attempt to carry that burden would have effects — such as the paralysis of local initiative and responsibility, or the negative impact which a great foreign presence inevitably has on the natives of a country — which would tend to defeat the purpose of the undertaking." 

-George Kennan, 1967

"Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas." 

- Joseph Stalin

The first prominent figure to talk about it publicly was James Mattis, the retired Marine Corps general and former U.S. defense secretary. He used the term in a 2005 speech, though he didn't go into detail.

Townsend acknowledged that he had indeed submitted a recommendation regarding Somalia to his superiors — but categorically refused to characterize what it contained, noting they were “still considering that advice, and I’d like to give them space to make that decision.”

Putin’s public humiliation of his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, seems superficially unwise given his dependence on their protection. While nowhere near the lethal implications of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s televised purge of his immediate entourage, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s alienating cabinet hirings and firings ultimately led to her political ouster. Insulting an individual may have multiple purposes, but it generally leads to revenge, either by the individual, or their faction, fearing a loss of resources. Benjamin Valentino has argued convincingly of the critical ability of individual leaders to dominate policy and change resulting from accidents of history. Just as history may have changed had Winston Churchill been killed rather than injured in a New York City car accident in 1931, more than anything, the War in Ukraine is entirely the result of the imagination of Putin and its continued prosecution, dependent on his survival.

• Summary
• About 20,000 flee Mariupol in private cars-Ukraine
• Hundreds of thousands still trapped in city
• UK says Russian forces struggling to make progress
• Ukraine president says peace talks more 'realistic'
• U.S. President Biden to meet NATO leaders

• Ukrainian presidential aid Mykhailo Podolyak, a member of the peace talks delegation, tweeted that "fundamental contradictions" remained as peace talks with Russian officials were expected to continue Wednesday. "But there is certainly room for compromise," he added.
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it's too early to say how negotiations were progressing, but "in the current situation the very fact that [negotiations] are continuing is probably positive," per Reuters.

• "It's a truth and it must be recognised," he added. "I am glad that our people are beginning to understand this and rely on themselves and on our partners who assist us."

• Fresh attacks were also reported in Mariupol, where local officials said Russian forces had seized a hospital and took some 500 people hostage.
• But Zelensky said during his address that despite Russia's military bombardment, its forces had failed to break through.

• A U.S. Defense official told AP that Russian forces were about nine miles outside Kyiv and their long-range missiles were striking civilian targets in the capital "with increasing frequency." But Putin's ground forces were "making little to no progress around the country."

• "Russian forces have remained largely tied to Ukraine’s road network and have demonstrated a reluctance to conduct off-road manoeuvre. The destruction of bridges by Ukrainian forces has also played a key role in stalling Russia’s advance," the defense ministry added.
• "Russia's continued failure to gain control of the air has drastically limited their ability to effectively use air manoeuvre, further limiting their options" in the face of Ukrainian resistance, according to the statement.

• The Kremlin "is redeploying forces from as far afield as its Eastern Military District, Pacific Fleet and Armenia. It is also increasingly seeking to exploit irregular sources such as Private Military Companies, Syrian and other mercenaries," the update added.
• "Russia will likely attempt to use these forces to hold captured territory and free up its combat power to renew stalled offensive operations."

• Axios explains Ukraine
• The latest on the Russia-Ukraine crisis

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 1, 2022

— Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) February 26, 2022

I enjoy acting as a filter – as that wind to push the sails in the right direction

• China has steadily ramped up its aggression toward Taiwan in recent years.
• Beijing is rapidly building a military capable of invading Taiwan, but it would still be challenged by such an operation.
• Chinese strategists have been studied how other countries carried out similar operations, and two US and British conflicts stand out.

The combination of an unconstrained and nationalist autocrat who harbors an increasingly bleak view of the external environment makes for a potentially volatile period ahead. China’s position in global affairs is far more consequential today than it was during the Mao era. The international environment in which Xi attempts to steer Chinese interests is also significantly different from what it was in the 1960s and 1970s. Without the relative predictability of Cold War–era bipolarity, competition today is more complicated and harder to navigate. To compensate, the United States and its allies must prioritize direct communication with Xi to ensure that alternative ideas puncture his leadership bubble. It will also be critical for the leaders of like-minded countries to convey consistent messages during their own separate interactions with China’s leadership. After all, it is one thing for Xi to dismiss Washington as stuck in a “Cold War mentality” but another to ignore a broad coalition of democratic allies. Over the past four decades, China has repeatedly shown that it can change course before it courts disaster. The question now is whether it can do so again under Xi.

Xi is not Putin, and China is not Russia, but it would be unwise to ignore the growing parallels.

Xi’s outlook on China’s security environment in the coming decade is increasingly pessimistic.