Quotes of the Day:

"Let no man imagine that he has no influence. Whoever he may be, and wherever he may be placed, the man who thinks becomes a light and a power." 

– Henry George

"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be. The functionaries of every government have propensities to command at will the liberty and property of their constituents. There is no safe deposit for these but with the people themselves; nor can they be safe with them without information. Where the press is free, and every man able to read, all is safe." 

– Thomas Jefferson

"Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't." 

– Margaret Thatcher

1. U.S. watchful for N. Korea's 'gray zone' activities shy of attack: Washington official

2. N.K. leader guides firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers

3. Russian cultural delegation visits N. Korea amid deepening ties

4. Relations between Japan and South Korea are blossoming

5. South Korea To 'Junk' US SM-2 Missiles; Will Go Indigenous For Next-Gen KDDX Destroyers To Check North

6. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Implementation of the large-scale restructuring of trading companies (1)　Called “anti-socialist hotbeds,” government forces ‘bases’ of trading companies to close down and consolidate

7. COVID symptoms kill 5 North Korean children, schools and daycares shuttered

8. Seoul outranks Tokyo and London as the 16th most expensive city in the world

9. Two opposing views of “North Korean Defectors’ Day” in North Korea

10. Online searches for Kim Ju Ae spike after N. Korean news uses special honorifics

11. Behind N. Korea’s lockdown of Kaesong in July 2020

12. Presidential election in Taiwan: its implications for Seoul

13. North's Kim threatens to destroy Seoul during multiple rocket launch drill

14. Combatant commanders head to Capitol Hill to face budget questions

15. N. Korea resumes provocations in 33 days

1. U.S. watchful for N. Korea's 'gray zone' activities shy of attack: Washington official

It is good to see the north and its operations in the gray zone acknowledged. The essence of operations in the gray zone is political and irregular warfare.

Regarding interim steps to denuclearization. I can only accept such arms control talks (which Kim will assess as a success for his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies because it will leave him with nuclear weapons) if we are willing to initiate a superior political warfare strategy that is based on human rights, information and influence activities, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

At this link is my syllabus for my seminar on the DPRK and the Gray Zone.  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wPYthuKNShGmZ0wvQSUQRp9WIc3fiFkB/view?usp=sharing

Happy to discuss with anyone who is interested.

Here is the agenda for my seminar.

1. Appreciate the Context

• Gray Zone

• National Security Environment

• north Korea’s Role in the World

• Uncertainty and Complexity

• The “Big 5” Challenges

• COVID Paradox (to crush resistance)

• Biden Administration Policy

• Strategic Context

• North versus South Korea

• Uncertainty and Complexity

• The Implosion-Explosion Paradox

2. Understand the Problem

• Challenges

• KFR nature, objectives, and strategy

• Threats

• Contingencies

3. Develop an Approach

• ROK/U.S. Alliance vision(s)

• Paths to Unification

• Contingencies

• Response to Provocations

• Civil Society Contributions

• SOF Scenarios associated with north Korea

• WMD

• Global illicit activities

• Support to internal resistance

• Information and Influence activities

U.S. watchful for N. Korea's 'gray zone' activities shy of attack: Washington official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · March 19, 2024

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, March 18 (Yonhap) -- The United States remains "always watchful" for the possibility of North Korea conducting "gray zone" activities short of a major attack, a U.S. diplomat said Monday, restating Washington sees no signs of the recalcitrant regime preparing for a near-term attack.

U.S. Senior Official for North Korea Jung Pak made the remarks amid concerns that Pyongyang could undertake major provocations ahead of South Korea's parliamentary elections next month and the U.S. presidential election in November.

"I don't think we are on the precipice of war. We don't see any signals or evidence of a near-term attack. I also don't think it's in (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-un's interest to launch a war," she said during an online forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"But of course, we are always watchful for anything below that -- the gray zone activities," she added.

Pak stressed that the North will "manufacture a reason for provocative actions to fit their political needs or their technical needs."

This photo, taken on March 13, 2024, shows U.S. Senior Official for North Korea Jung Pak speaking during a retirement celebration for her predecessor, Sung Kim, in Washington. (Yonhap)

Referring to the North's high-stakes defense projects unveiled at a key ruling party congress in early 2021, Pak noted that Pyongyang has a "to-do-list" when it comes to its weapons tests.

"They've also, since January of 2021, said that they are going to do a whole series of tests and develop new technologies," she said. "Hypersonic system is one ... the underwater nuclear vehicles, the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile system, the military reconnaissance satellite."

The U.S. is "incredibly concerned" about all of these developments, she stressed.

What has also been worrisome is the North's hostile rhetoric that has accompanied missile and other weapons tests, Pak said.

"Kim Jong-un, since late last year, has talked about reunification out of the question now that South Korea is their primary enemy, which is different from their longstanding policy of reunification at some point," she said.

Despite the North's provocative acts, the U.S. envoy highlighted the need to engage in diplomacy with the regime,

"We always call for dialogue with the DPRK," she said, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"We've reached out privately, publicly, through third parties to try to generate some sort of diplomacy with the DPRK because we think that's the only way that we get peace and security on the Korean Peninsula," she said.

Touching on U.S. officials' recent mention of "interim" steps toward the North's denuclearization, Pak reiterated that Joe Biden administration's policy remains unchanged.

Pak and Mira Rapp-Hooper, the U.S. National Security Council senior director for East Asia and Oceania, have signaled the possibility of Washington considering interim steps for a path toward denuclearization. Their remarks were construed as a sign of Washington being more willing to be flexible in its approach to the North's nuclear conundrum.

"The policy hasn't changed. Our goal is complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," she said. "We want dialogue, and there are lots of valuable discussions that we can have with the DPRK, including on risk reduction to reduce the risk of miscalculation or inadvertent escalation."

Commenting on the North's arms transfers to Russia, Pak said that Pyongyang is "not doing this for free."

"They are almost certainly looking for things like fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, ballistic missile technologies and other technologies or armored vehicles," she said.

"This is a pretty fraught moment, from my perspective, in terms of nonproliferation, what it means for actual war fighting, and what North Korea might be learning about their weapons systems because Russia is actually using it on the battlefield," she added.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · March 19, 2024

2. N.K. leader guides firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers

Super large multiple rocket launchers to hit the "fat target" (as Kim Jong Un called it in 2017) of Camp Humphreys.

As soon as Rumsfeld announced in 2004 that we would move from Yongsan to Camp Humphreys specifically saying doing so was to move US forces out of harm's way in that they would be out of artillery range in Seoul, the nKPA embarked on a program to develop capabilities to target it.

(2nd LD) N.K. leader guides firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · March 19, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS S. Korean military's remarks in paras 9-11)

By Kim Soo-yeon and Chae Yun-hwan

SEOUL, March 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has guided firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers and called for perfecting readiness to collapse the capital of the enemy with the "core striking means," state media said Tuesday.

On the previous day, Kim oversaw the "salvo" drills of artillery units in the country's western region using the 600mm multiple launch rocket system, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The South Korean military said Monday it detected the firing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles from areas near Pyongyang and they flew about 300 kilometers toward the East Sea. Experts said they might be the KN-25 super-large multiple rocket launcher.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 19, 2024, shows the North's firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Calling a super-large multiple rocket launcher one of "the core striking means" of its military, Kim said the weapon system has an important role in the country's war preparations, the KCNA said.

"He said that it is necessary to further impress upon the enemies that if an armed conflict and a war break out, they can never avoid disastrous consequences," the report said.

"The destructive offensive means possessed by our army should more thoroughly fulfill their missions to block and suppress the possibility of war with the constant perfect preparedness to collapse the capital of the enemy and the structure of its military forces," Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA, apparently referring to Seoul.

North Korea also conducted a test simulating the midair detonation of a shell of such a weapon system at a preset altitude above the target, it added.

The North's super-large multiple rocket launch system is classified as a short-range missile that could put the entire South Korean territory within range. Pyongyang has claimed a tactical nuclear warhead could be mounted on such a weapon.

Photos carried by the KCNA showed six missiles being launched simultaneously, but the South Korean military said it assesses that the North staged even more launches.

"(The photos) appear to show the first simultaneous launches, and (we) assess that there were more launches afterward," Lt. Col. Lee Chang-hyun, a spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a briefing.

Lee said South Korea and the United States are continuing to track the North's weapons development activities, noting that they are assessing the state media report while leaving various possibilities open.

The provocation came as South Korea and the U.S. wrapped up the 11-day annual Freedom Shield exercise Thursday.

It marked North Korea's second ballistic missile launch this year since Jan. 14, when it test-fired a solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile carrying a hypersonic warhead.

North Korea refrained from conducting missile tests during the joint military drills by Seoul and Washington. Instead, its leader Kim Jong-un guided military training involving artillery and tank units as well as paratroopers.

The North's latest missile launch was also timed with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Seoul. Blinken arrived in South Korea on Sunday to attend the third Summit of Democracy hosted by South Korea, a U.S.-led multinational gathering formed to boost solidarity and shared values among democratic countries.

In January, the North's leader called for revising the country's constitution to define South Korea as its "primary foe" and codify a commitment to subjugate the South Korean territory in the event of war.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 19, 2024, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (C) guiding a "salvo" drill involving super-large multiple rocket launchers the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 19, 2024, shows the North holding a salvo drill involving super-large multiple rocket launchers the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · March 19, 2024

3. Russian cultural delegation visits N. Korea amid deepening ties

(LEAD) Russian cultural delegation visits N. Korea amid deepening ties | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · March 19, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS details, remarks in paras 4-5, 12-13)

SEOUL, March 19 (Yonhap) -- A Russian delegation led by Moscow's vice culture minister has arrived in Pyongyang, state media said Tuesday, as the two nations have been strengthening their ties following a rare summit of their leaders in September.

The delegation led by Russia's Vice Culture Minister Andrei Maluishev arrived in the North the previous day on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of a bilateral agreement on economic and cultural cooperation, the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

The delegation included members of an art troupe for the Primorsky branch of the Mariinsky Theatre in Vladivostok.

Russian media outlets earlier reported that the visiting troupe will put on ballet performances of the "Sleeping Beauty" and "Firebird" at the Mansudae Art Theater in Pyongyang.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watched a ballet, "Sleeping Beauty," at a theater in Vladivostok in September following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny spaceport in Russia's Far East.

A Russian cultural delegation led by Moscow's Vice Culture Minister Andrei Maluishev arrives in Pyongyang on March 18, 2024, in this photo carried by the Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Separately, the KCNA said a delegation led by Oleg Kozhemyako, the governor of Russia's far eastern region of Primorsky Krai that borders North Korea, arrived in Pyongyang the previous day.

It marked Kozhemyako's second visit to Pyongyang since December when he met with North Korean Premier Kim Tok-hun amid speculation that North Korea was seeking to send workers to Russia to earn much-needed hard currency.

On Feb. 5, around 300 people presumed to be North Korean workers arrived at a train station near Vladivostok, Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the state-funded Korea Institute for National Unification, has said, citing an unidentified source in Russia.

The overseas dispatch of North Korean workers is banned under United Nations Security Council resolutions imposed due to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

All member states of the U.N. were required to repatriate any North Koreans earning income in their jurisdiction by the end of 2019.

North Korea and Russia have been deepening cooperation in a wide range of areas following the summit between Kim and Putin in September.

An official at Seoul's unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs said that while bilateral exchanges are taking place in an array of areas, it is unlikely that such a level of cooperation will be sustained.

"There is a high possibility that the vibrant relationship between North Korea and Russia may be a temporary one, stemming from the war in Ukraine," the official told reporters.

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · March 19, 2024

4. Relations between Japan and South Korea are blossoming

For as long as both countries have leaders who are willing to prioritize national security and national prosperity while managing the historical issues. 

Relations between Japan and South Korea are blossoming

But how long can the good times last?

Mar 18th 2024|seoul and tokyo

The Economist

MOTOMIYA YURI, the heroine of “Eye Love You”, a hit television series in East Asia, is a Japanese woman with the power to read minds. Her gift makes romance hard, so she gives up on love—until she meets Yoon Tae-oh, a hunky South Korean who becomes an intern at her chocolate company. He thinks in Korean, rendering Ms Motomiya’s mind-reading moot; the two begin a torrid affair. The show is the first Japanese prime-time love story to feature a Korean actor as the lead. Since its launch in January, it has amassed legions of fans in both countries.

“Eye Love You” echoes developments off screen. Since Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea’s president, took office in 2022, relations between the two neighbours and American allies have blossomed. The question is whether the good times can last. The legacy of Japan’s colonisation of Korea between 1910 and 1945 haunts the budding romance. And political changes in both countries this year could upset its development. Kishida Fumio, Japan’s prime minister, had considered a visit to South Korea this week to meet Mr Yoon (and to watch Ohtani Shohei, a Japanese baseball star, play in Seoul). A looming parliamentary election in South Korea and a continuing financial scandal in Japan made that difficult. How the relationship evolves will have big implications for the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

The rapprochement began after Mr Yoon’s election. Under his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, ties had frayed amid recriminations over past Japanese atrocities. A particular bugbear was two decisions in 2018 by South Korea’s Supreme Court, which ordered Japanese companies to compensate Koreans forced to work in their wartime factories, as well as their surviving relatives; Japan considers the matter settled by a treaty signed and payments made in 1965. With liquidation of the Japanese assets looming, Mr Yoon created a foundation to compensate the plaintiffs, using funds from South Korean firms that benefited from normalised relations. The plan was unpopular with the public, but Mr Yoon persevered.

Mr Yoon travelled to Tokyo on March 16th last year, the first official visit between the two countries in more than a decade. Mr Kishida went to Seoul two months later and paid his respects at a national cemetery where Korean independence fighters are interred. The two leaders have held five more summits since, including a landmark meeting with Joe Biden, America’s president, at Camp David last summer. Security co-operation has deepened. The three nations have conducted large-scale joint drills at sea and in the air. When North Korea launches missiles, they now share data in real time.

Commercial activity and mutual exchanges are reviving. Last summer South Korea was put back on Japan’s “whitelist”, which speeds up exports, having been taken off it in 2019. In December the two nations struck a currency swap deal, nearly eight years after their last one had expired. Business leaders in both countries are sounding optimistic notes.

Public opinion appears to be shifting, at least compared to the antagonism during Mr Moon’s administration. In a joint survey conducted in late 2023 by Genron, a Japanese think-tank, and the East Asia Institute (EAI), a South Korean one, 37% of Japanese held positive views of South Korea, up from 26% in 2020. The share of those with negative views dropped from 46% to 33% over the same period; for the first time since the survey began in 2013, more Japanese had positive views of South Korea than had negative ones. Among South Korean respondents, the share of those with negative views of Japan has fallen, from 72% in 2020 to 53% last year; 29% held a positive view, up from 12% in 2020.

image: The Economist

Yet much wariness remains. Security co-operation is still conducted via America. Japanese investment into South Korea was $1.3bn last year, a far cry from nearly $4.5bn in 2012. South Korean views of Japan actually worsened slightly between 2022 and 2023 (see chart). Many South Koreans feel Japan has not done enough to atone for the past and that Mr Yoon is giving it a free pass. Proponents of the relationship believe Mr Kishida has been too cautious about seizing the opportunity that Mr Yoon represents.

Japanese worry that Mr Yoon’s successor may overturn his policies, much as Mr Moon did with a deal made in 2015 to settle issues related to “comfort women”, as Koreans and others forced into brothels for the benefit of Japanese soldiers during the second world war were euphemistically called. The foundation that Mr Yoon tasked with settling the forced-labour cases lacks funding and faces its own challenges in court. There may yet be “serious snags in the final path to the end,” says Shin Kak-soo, a lawyer and former South Korean ambassador to Japan.

Domestic political change also threatens to knock the relationship off course. Mr Yoon’s hold over his own party will wane as the end of his term, in 2027, draws closer (South Korean leaders are limited to one term in office). It may seep away even sooner if his party fails to recapture a majority in April’s parliamentary elections. His opponents, who enjoy stirring anti-Japanese sentiment, will criticise his policy either way. Mr Kishida’s standing at home is shaky—he may not survive elections for the leadership of Japan’s ruling party in September. His successor may prove more wary of taking risks on relations with South Korea. And if Donald Trump is elected president in America in November, he is unlikely to pressure his allies to get along as much as Mr Biden has.

Nonetheless, there are good reasons to believe the current relationship will endure. Mr Yoon has personally committed himself to Japan in a way few South Korean leaders have. His childhood experience of the country, where he briefly lived while his father was a visiting scholar, predisposed him to have “good feelings” toward Japan, says one former senior South Korean official.

Two larger structural forces are also at work. First is generational change. While the struggle against Japanese colonialism remains a pillar of South Korean identity, the bitter history generates less passion among today’s youth, who only learn about it through textbooks, says Lim Eun-jung of Kongju National University. The latest eai survey suggests that age is among the most important variables affecting South Koreans’ favourable views of Japan. The highest-rated film in South Korea these days is “Exhuma”, a supernatural horror with seeming anti-Japanese overtones—a message lost on many young viewers. “I didn’t even think about anti-Japanese sentiments,” says Kim Do-hoon, a 23-year-old fan. “My blood isn’t boiling from anger.”

Second is geopolitical change. Faced with an assertive China, a threatening North Korea and a disruptive Russia, the two East Asian democracies have ever more strategic incentives to get along. Doing so also helps strengthen both countries’ alliances with America. Even in South Korean opposition circles, “the stance on Japan is changing little-by-little, and the main reason is the strategic environment,” says Wi Sung-lac, a former diplomat and adviser to progressive politicians. As the governments look ahead to next year, which will mark the 60th anniversary of their formal relations, the “scope and depth” of their cooperation is “wider than ever”, says a senior Japanese official. It will be an opportune occasion for the two to renew their vows. ■

The Economist

5. South Korea To 'Junk' US SM-2 Missiles; Will Go Indigenous For Next-Gen KDDX Destroyers To Check North

South Korea To 'Junk' US SM-2 Missiles; Will Go Indigenous For Next-Gen KDDX Destroyers To Check North

eurasiantimes.com · by Parth Satam · March 17, 2024

Amid North Korean missile and drone threats, South Korea is developing an indigenous ship-based air defense system for its upcoming home-built Korean Destroyer Next Generation (KDDX). The missile is also envisaged to replace the US-origin Standard Missile-2 (SM-2) that South Korea uses.

Taiwan’s F-16V vs China’s J-20: We Hold “Absolute Air Superiority” Over PLAAF With Quality Weapons: Taipei

The country’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) announced signing a $249 million deal with South Korean defense and aerospace major LIG Nex1. Seoul plans to have 90 percent of the missile’s components be indigenous.

However, reports said the new missile is largely an analog of the SM-2.

Home-Built, Mass-Produced System Before North Korean Swarms

This techno-industrial goal can also be inferred to have a tactical reason for retaining the capability to mass manufacture the missile and replenish stocks in the event of a prolonged war with North Korea.

That lesson, too, stems from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, where both Kyiv and Tel Aviv rapidly deplete their surface-to-air missiles (SAM) to Russia’s Geran-2 drones or Hamas’s cheap rockets.

Ukraine’s US and European-made Patriot PAC-3, Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile (NASAMS), IRIST-T, or the SAMP/T have come from America’s, Germany’s, and France’s armories. Ukraine, too, had flagged this issue before NATO, calling for a steady supply of anti-air missiles.

New Missile For New Warship

The KDDX itself is a “locally developed combat system equipped with locally produced guided weapons,” being a “smaller Korean version of the US Aegis destroyer.” The planned “naval surface-to-air missile-II is an innovative weapon system (that is expected) to boast precision guidance and search capabilities,” reported PulseNews.

Graphic illustration of South Korea’s Ship-to-Air Missile-II intercepting a North Korean anti-ship cruise missile and a fighter aircraft. Source: DAPA

“Replacing the US Standard Missile 2 currently in operation, the new surface-to-air missile is dubbed as type II due to its close operational objectives and concept to the SM-2 missile,” the report added.

LIG Nex1’s “extensive expertise in precision-guided weapons” explains its choice as the “prime contractor for the new surface-to-air missile system.” The project’s design and development phase will run “through 2030.”

DAPA “emphasized” that the military’s acquisition of an “upgraded air defense system against North Korean air threats will strengthen the independent capabilities of local defense enterprises in the research and development of precision-guided weapons.”

Missile’s Capabilities

An illustrated graphic of the Ship-to-Air Missile-II (SAM-II) operational concept shows the missile being flung in a ‘cold-launch’ mode from what can only be vertical launch silo (VLS) cells, with the booster falling off. Thus qualifying as a two-stage projectile, the missile is shown intercepting an incoming North Korean missile at a lower altitude while the latter is in a sea-skimming mode.

It also strikes a fighter-bomber, what appears to be a Russian-origin MiG-29.

Overhead satellites are depicted as linked to the missile, implying the SAM-II will receive guidance and course updates from space-based assets.

In December 2023, South Korea launched its first spy satellite on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from the Vandenberg US Space Force Base in California.

SAM-II. Source: DAPA

However, reports describe it as a “reconnaissance satellite” meant to “monitor nuclear-armed North Korea,” suggesting it might predominantly have optical systems and not high-bandwidth communication or Position Navigation Timing (PNT) transponders that can guide missiles.

The KDDX will also be equipped with a ballistic missile interception system. This involves adapting and developing the naval version of “L-SAM,” a long-range surface-to-air guided weapon, too “being developed with domestic technology.” “Thus, the KDDX will be equipped with new Korean versions of medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missiles capable of intercepting ballistic missiles,” said NavalNews.

Standard Missile-2 (SM-2)

The Raytheon-developed SM-2, meanwhile, is designed to shoot down aircraft and anti-ship missiles at a range of 167 km. It is also used by the Australian and Japanese navies. In December 2019, the State Department approved the sale of 94 SM-2s to South Korea for $314 million.

South Korea possibly uses the SM-2 Medium Range (MR) Block I (SM-2MR Block I), also known as the RIM-66 Standard MR. This is because the other SM-2 variant is the SM-2 Block IV (RIM-156A), used to intercept ballistic missiles in their terminal phase. This is a completely different category of threat, not the North Korean cruise missiles and jets that the new South Korean missile or the SM-2 are meant to tackle.

Developed in the 1970s, the SM-2MR introduced inertial and command mid-course guidance. The missile’s autopilot is programmed to fly the most efficient path to the target and can receive course corrections from the ground.

Target illumination for semi-active homing is needed only for a few seconds in the terminal phase of the interception. This capability enables the Aegis combat system and the New Threat Upgrade (NTU) equipped vessels to time share illumination radars, greatly increasing the number of targets that can be engaged at one time.

North Korean Missile Tests

On February 15, North Korea tested the Padasuri-6 “surface-to-sea missile.” “Multiple” missiles were fired that “hit their intended targets after flying over the East Sea (or Sea of Japan) for 1,400 seconds.” The missile, seen in an official photo by KCNA, exhibited sufficient sophistication in design and fundamental technical concepts.

North Korea’s Padasuri-6 anti-ship cruise missile during its launch on February 15. Source: KCNA

It showed a disposable booster stage in the tail-end, an underbelly intake, and a small module protruding under the chin. This could possibly come into play during the terminal stage while honing in on a target.

On February 2, it tested another unidentified series of “cruise” and “new land-to-air missiles” off its west coast in a “barrage of launches.” One official photo showed the missile taking off vertically and then hitting a land target on a coast while approaching it horizontally. It is not clear if the launch and target engagement/destruction photos belong to the same missile.

eurasiantimes.com · by Parth Satam · March 17, 2024

6.  ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Implementation of the large-scale restructuring of trading companies (1)　Called “anti-socialist hotbeds,” government forces ‘bases’ of trading companies to close down and consolidate

Wil Kim Jong Un cut off his nose to spite his face? Is he going to forgo the funds from these "trading bases" in favor of further oppressing the people and repressing resistance?

The COVID paradox continues. Defend against COVID but use those defensive measures to protect Kim Jong Un from the people and their potential resistance.

＜Inside N. Korea＞ Implementation of the large-scale restructuring of trading companies (1)　Called “anti-socialist hotbeds,” government forces ‘bases’ of trading companies to close down and consolidate

asiapress.org

(FILE PHOTO) Women selling Chinese-made cosmetics in a market. The products are imported, authorized for sale by the government, and then wholesaled by trading companies. The women are shopkeepers with stalls about 80 centimeters wide. Photo taken in August 2013 at Hyesan Market, Yanggang Province (ASIAPRESS)

North Korean authorities have begun a major consolidation of organizations affiliated with trading companies. Since the late 1990s, a number of so-called "foreign currency earning bases" (hereinafter referred to as "bases"), which are responsible for the production and management of export goods, have been created under the umbrella of power institutions and trading companies, and their closure and consolidation has been ongoing since late last year. The political reason given for this restructuring is that the bases are becoming hotbeds of "anti-socialist behavior." The following report is based on information from several reporting partners in the northern region of the DPRK. This is part one of a two-part report. (ISHIMARU Jiro / KANG Ji-won)

◆ Trading companies were organizations with special privileges created by powerful institutions

North Korea's trading companies, many of which were established under the umbrella of the Workers' Party, military, government agencies, and police, are headquartered in Pyongyang, with branches and logistics centers in provincial cities.

The trading companies mainly exported underground resources, fisheries resources, primary products such as herbal medicines, dried wild plants and fruits, and "manufactured" goods such as wigs and eyelashes to China. They also imported general consumer goods, food, vehicles and machinery parts from China and sold and distributed them in the country, earning profits and making payments to higher authorities.

The types and quantities of goods exported were allocated to each trading company by the central government through the “waku” system (the word is believed to be of Japanese origin). Imports from China were imported by trading companies at their own discretion to meet domestic demand and distributed around the country in collaboration with the "donju" (the DPRK’s wealthy entrepreneurial class).

Since 2019, trading companies have been subject to increased governmental controls. The authority of the Cabinet's Ministry of External Economic Relations was greatly strengthened, while the discretion of each trading company was reduced. With the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in January 2020, borders were closed and trade volumes plummeted. Only a limited number of items authorized by the Ministry of External Economic Relations could be imported and exported to China from Nampo on the west coast.

Under the pretext of preventing the spread of COVID, North Korea's trade activities quickly shifted to a state-led system.

Trends in trade between North Korea and China. Figures compiled based on data from the General Administration of Customs of China. (ASIAPRESS)

◆ Government forces consolidation of “bases,” which are key to trading companies in the provinces

Here, an explanation about “bases” is needed. Bases are the center of production and export of "contract manufactured" goods that are produced to earn foreign currency. It is the smallest unit in North Korea's foreign currency earning system.

As mentioned above, many Chinese medicinal ingredients, wild vegetables, and marine products were exported to China (marine products were banned under the 2017 UN Security Council sanctions). These resources were gathered by ordinary people from the wilderness and the sea. The organizations that produce or purchase and manage these resources are called "bases.” The bases became the center for distributing imported goods from China to various parts of the country.

North Korea-China trade has been recovering rapidly since the easing of quarantine controls in 2023. Kim Jong-un's regime has shown no signs of loosening its control over trading companies, and is instead pushing hard for the consolidation of these bases.

Why? A reporting partner in North Hamgyong Province who is a member of the Workers' Party told us the following explanation, based on what he heard from the central government:

"According to officials, the people have suffered greatly because the trading companies have been taking advantage of them by distributing food and local supplies at high prices. Now the trading company is a hotbed of anti-socialist behavior. (The consolidation effort) is aimed at preventing them from becoming just a money-making organization."

We conducted an interview with the reporting partner about the status of the reorganization and integration of trading companies.

Monthly trade volume between North Korea and China in 2023. Figures compiled based on data from the General Administration of Customs of China. (ASIAPRESS)

◆ Even organizations affiliated with military-run trading companies are being closed down

-- When did the consolidation of trading companies begin?

Orders to investigate trading companies were issued in late November last year. In North Hamgyong Province, several bases have been dismantled since January this year, and workers have been dispersed to other factories and enterprises by the labor department of the people’s committee (local government).

-- Please provide specific examples.

For example, the bases of the Dongyang Company, a shoe factory, and the Geumeunsan Company in Hyesan were dissolved. The leaders who managed the bases and the workers who worked there were assigned to general factories.

*The Geumeunsan Company was a trading company under the General Department of Military Mobilization, headquartered in Pyongyang. It was involved in the importation of crude oil, domestic sales of condensed milk, and the food industry. The Dongyang Company is military-affiliated and is part of the Supreme Guard Command, but there is little clarity on what it does.

-- What did these bases do?

Originally, they were sending goods from China to other parts of the country, or purchasing medicinal herbs and wild vegetables for export to China, but this was stopped during the pandemic. So, to make money, the employees of the bases went into various businesses such as restaurant management. They were able to do this because the bases had business licenses.

◆ Domestic distribution activities criticized as being the source of “anti-socialist activity”

-- These are harsh measures.

What was particularly problematic was that they were making money by distributing domestic products and resources, including food. This is the root of anti-socialism (according to the authorities). The companies are also conducting their own thorough investigations. They are investigating what the base employees did when they went to work and what kind of business they engaged in. A lot of corruption has been uncovered.

-- The companies’ domestic distribution activities would appear to have taken a hit.

The trading companies did not have fixed sales licenses and were selling to individuals and merchants. Now, distribution to individuals (civilians) has been completely banned. In the past, if you had the money, you could do whatever you wanted, but now you can only do what the state decides and approves. Trading companies are only allowed to distribute through state-owned distribution networks.

-- Will the loss of the bases hinder North Korea’s export activities?

Many bases of well-financed trading companies have been abolished. Many people are worried about whether the government will be able to handle things (acquiring resources). (To be continued in the next installment)

※ ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)

asiapress.org

7. COVID symptoms kill 5 North Korean children, schools and daycares shuttered

COVID (and the Korean people in the north) remain a threat to the regime.

COVID symptoms kill 5 North Korean children, schools and daycares shuttered

Ryanggang province enacts mask mandate and advises children to stay home for 10 days.

By Kim Jieun for RFA Korean

2024.03.18

rfa.org

At least five North Korean children have died as a resurgence of a respiratory disease believed to be COVID-19 has caused authorities to enact quarantine procedures in Ryanggang province, residents told Radio Free Asia.

Residents living in the central northern province, which borders China, will have to wear masks and children will be confined to their homes, as schools and daycare centers have been temporarily shuttered. Sources said they were not sure if the lockdown applied outside of Ryanggang province.

“In early March, children showing symptoms of coronavirus died one after another in Paegam county,” a resident of the province, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told RFA Korean. “The provincial party committee took emergency quarantine measures through the quarantine center.”

According to the resident, quarantine workers that went house-to-house informed residents that three children in Paegam county died along with two more in nearby Kapsan county after exhibiting coronavirus-like symptoms. Another Ryanggang resident confirmed how the news was spread.

‘Fever cases’

Residents, however, say they believe the situation could be much worse than reported, the first resident said.

For the first two-and-a-half years of the pandemic, North Korea claimed outwardly to be completely “virus free,” but in April 2022, Pyongyang admitted the virus had spread to all areas of the country and declared a state of “maximum emergency” the following month.

During the entirety of the emergency, the government kept an official tally of “fever cases,” but its official total on global COVID-19 case tracking websites remained at or near zero. Experts said it was likely that cases could not be confirmed due to a lack of reliable testing capacity.

Prior to the emergency, when patients in North Korean hospitals with COVID symptoms died, the hospital would quickly cremate the bodies so that they could not be tested for the disease, then attributed the deaths to other causes.

Though authorities acknowledge that five children have died, residents think that the response points to many more casualties, as daycare centers, kindergartens and schools will be closed for a 10-day period, and everyone will be required to wear masks or face punishment, the resident said.

He said that the quarantine center in the city of Hyesan ordered all children to be kept at home as much as possible because they are at greater risk than adults.

“Some are complaining about how children are supposed to be kept indoors when the adults have to do whatever it takes to make a living and find food,” the resident said. “On the other hand, some others agree that the temporary school closure is the best option in the absence of medicine.”

The quarantine center also promoted personal hygiene practices when it went house-to-house, the second Ryanggang resident told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“The quarantine workers warned of the seriousness of the situation and they also shared the news that several children infected with the coronavirus had died in Paegam and Kapsan counties,” she said. “There are many patients around me who are coughing and suffering from high fevers, similar to coronavirus symptoms.”

The second resident said things were just as bad now as they were during the pandemic.

At that time, the border with China was closed and trade had been suspended, so there were shortages of everything. Additionally, lockdowns at home meant that people could not go out to earn money to support themselves.

“There is no money now, just like during the big outbreak,” she said. “And even if you have money it is difficult to get medicine.”

Translated by Claire S. Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong.

rfa.org

8. Seoul outranks Tokyo and London as the 16th most expensive city in the world

Seoul outranks Tokyo and London as the 16th most expensive city in the world

https://www.chosun.com/english/travel-food-en/2024/03/19/7CGTUBT2LNBEHBGQNKIQ42M3WM/

South Korea’s capital: cost of living is rising while quality of life lags behind

By Song Hye-jin,

Lee Jae-eun

Published 2024.03.19. 11:26

Updated 2024.03.19. 11:35

Illustration by Kim Sung gyu / Chosunilbo

Seoul was the 16th most expensive city for international employees last year, according to a report by global consulting firm Mercer. Regarding overall quality of life, Seoul ranked 81st out of 241 cities.

Based on a survey of expatriates around the world, the annual Mercer Cost of Living Ranking revealed that the cost of living in Seoul was more expensive than London and Tokyo, which ranked 17th and 19th, respectively. The comprehensive cost of living in Seoul, including housing, transportation, food, and clothing, has risen steeply over the years, surpassing that of many global cities worldwide. Notably, Tokyo ranked third, and Seoul was 11th on the list in 2020, but the depreciation of the yen combined with Seoul’s relative price hikes has positioned Seoul above Tokyo in the short span of three years.

Hong Kong topped the list as the most expensive city, followed by Singapore. “Two of the most expensive cities for international assignees to live in were located in Asia,” Mercer said. Four cities in the top ten ranking were in Switzerland. New York ranked sixth, followed by Copenhagen in ninth place. Lost Angeles (11th), Shanghai (12th) and Beijing (13th) followed suit.

At 16th place, Seoul is now one of the most expensive cities, considering that cities ranked higher on the list, such as Hongkong, Singapore, New York, and Copenhagen, have always been notorious for high living costs. Seoul surpasses Tokyo (19th), London (17th), Dubai (18th), Boston (21st), Chicago (24th), Vienna (25th), Helsinki (34th), and Paris (35th) in terms of living expenses.

The significant increase in Seoul’s cost of living can be partly attributed to price hikes in daily essentials such as butter, one of the most common purchases among expatriates. Butter prices in Seoul surged 26% last year, higher than the global average price rise of 23.8%. This specific example underscores the broader trend of rising living costs in the city.

Mercer also released a quality of life index that assesses cities based on the living conditions for expatriate employees and their families stationed abroad. Seoul ranked 81st out of 241 cities. Mercer explains that the ranking considers various factors, including the cost of consumer goods, economic conditions, housing stability, access to healthcare, the political and social climate, public services and transportation, recreation, social and cultural amenities, and the natural environment.

“Cost is not the only factor that influences how attractive a location is to employees and corporations: an equally important factor is the overall quality of life that a city offers,” Mercer stated.

9. Two opposing views of “North Korean Defectors’ Day” in North Korea

​Too much information from the South may cause some of the elite not to escape. They may learn that the free market economy can be cruel and not everyone gets rich or lives a comfortable life.

Two opposing views of “North Korean Defectors’ Day” in North Korea

While they are aware of their country's false propaganda about South Korea, party officials are not willing to risk defection if they are not guaranteed a comfortable life in the South

By Seulkee Jang - March 19, 2024

dailynk.com

Two opposing views of “North Korean Defectors’ Day” in North Korea - Daily NK English

A view of Panmunjom from the South Korean side of the border. (Wikimedia Commons)

News of South Korea’s establishment of a “North Korean Defectors’ Day” has spread to North Korea. North Korean authorities have made no official comment or criticism on the matter, presumably because they believe the news itself could cause social unrest.

A resident of an area bordering China interviewed by Daily NK earlier this month expressed criticism of the situation in North Korea and admiration for South Korean society after hearing the news. “We are treated worse than animals here, but people who have gone to South Korea receive care and support in an incomparably better environment. I can only admire their good fortune.”

The individual further said that he “regrets not leaving for South Korea while I still could” and that “the next time the opportunity arises, I’m absolutely determined to take the risk and go.”

However, a North Korean party official with a strong sense of loyalty to the government had the exact opposite reaction, demonstrating a clear difference in perspective between party officials and ordinary people.

The official told Daily NK: “Isn’t holding an anniversary for those who left the country because of their anti-revolutionary ideology a suppression scheme against the DPRK aimed at destabilizing our society?”

He went on to say that “it makes no sense to set an anniversary for people who are not even independence fighters. Besides, the party recently announced that the reunification of the north and the south is impossible and ordered us not to think of South Koreans as the same people. If the public finds out that South Korea has put forward such a policy, it will become a dangerous ideological weapon to increase their admiration for South Korea.”

In fact, many North Koreans have reacted negatively to the decision at the party’s plenary meeting late last year to reframe inter-Korean relations as “hostile bilateral relations” and to remove all references to reunification and the concept of one people.

The party official, for his part, insisted that he was “loyal to the party.”

He told Daily NK that “I know many loyal and high-ranking party officials, and I’m one of them. But I don’t think the concept of ethnicity is something that can disappear in an instant from a single directive. It’s definitely not because I’m an anti-revolutionary that I think this way. But even people who are loyal to the party think that it will be difficult to completely erase the concepts of ethnicity and reunification, as well as the clear historical facts that show that Koreans are one people with nothing but one set of orders. That’s why I think [Kim Jong Un’s] orders were not the best idea.”

The resident of the border region, meanwhile, expressed concern that inter-Korean relations might become more tense because of the North Korean government’s proclamation of “hostile bilateral relations.”

“If inter-Korean relations deteriorate, the authorities will intensify their crackdown, and we will have to tighten our belts for the sake of military strength,” he said. “I hope that at least inter-Korean relations won’t get worse than they are now.”

He added: “There are too many people starving. If possible, it would be great if relations with South Korea improved so that the South could give us aid in the form of food and other necessities.”

Different views on life in South Korea as a defector

Daily NK asked both people about how North Koreans perceive South Korean society and the lives of North Korean defectors within it.

“All the party officials know very well that South Korea is a free country where you can earn as much money as you work. The government is trying to scare the public by collecting only the bad cases and lecturing the people, but no party official believes such propaganda,” the party official said. “Everyone knows that South Korea will provide you with a home and some money, but for party officials there is no real need to leave if we can’t live as comfortably as we do here.”

In other words, party officials are fully aware that the North Korean authorities are spreading false propaganda, but they are not willing to risk defection if they are not guaranteed a comfortable life in South Korea.

The ordinary citizen, however, had a different view: “Defector families are the object of envy here. I would like to go to South Korea and travel as much as I want, wear what I want, and watch the movies I want without fearing for my safety.”

Translated by Annie Eun Jung Kim. Edited by Robert Lauler. 

Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Seulkee Jang

Seulkee Jang is one of Daily NK’s full-time reporters and covers North Korean economic and diplomatic issues, including workers dispatched abroad. Jang has a M.A. in Sociology from University of North Korean Studies and a B.A. in Sociology from Yonsei University. She can be reached at skjang(at)uni-media.net.

MORE STORIES

Behind N. Korea’s lockdown of Kaesong in July 2020

March 19, 2024

Online searches for Kim Ju Ae spike after N. Korean news…

March 19, 2024

dailynk.com

10. Online searches for Kim Ju Ae spike after N. Korean news uses special honorifics

Does this make the regime, and specifically Kim Ju Ae, feel good?

Online searches for Kim Ju Ae spike after N. Korean news uses special honorifics

On a monthly basis, the keyword “Kim Ju Ae” gets as many as 30,000 searches worldwide

By Rochelle Leonor - March 19, 2024

dailynk.com

Online searches for Kim Ju Ae spike after N. Korean news uses special honorifics - Daily NK English

Online searches for “Kim Ju Ae” spiked after Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s most prominent newspaper, recently published an article about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attending the commissioning ceremony of a greenhouse farm in Pyongyang with his daughter.

The article had a photo showing that he was accompanied by his daughter Kim Ju Ae. Although the article did not explicitly mention her name, Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju Ae were referred to as “great persons of guidance” as they toured the farm. The article stated, “The great persons of guidance, together with cadres of the Party, the government and the military, went round the farm.”

This marks the first time that Kim Ju Ae was referred to with such special honorifics, further fueling speculations that she may be the heir apparent to the North Korean throne.

The latest news about Kim Ju Ae has sparked interest online. A basic Google Trends search showed that worldwide searches on Kim Ju Ae spiked on Mar. 16 after the news came out.

Worldwide searches of “Kim Ju Ae” from March 11 to March 18, 2024. A spike occurred from March 16 to March 17. (Google Trends)

Searches on Kim Ju Ae from South Korea also spiked on Mar. 16 and 17 with South Korean media releasing articles about this latest development.

Google Trends analyzes the popularity of various search queries in Google Search. This free tool also allows any user to compare search volumes of any keyword over time. It is commonly used by digital marketing practitioners and web content writers.

On a monthly basis, the keyword “Kim Ju Ae” gets as many as 30,000 searches worldwide. This number is based on data from different SEO online checkers, such as Singapore-based startup Ahrefs and Denmark-based SEO company SearchVolume.

Since the first public appearance of Kim Ju Ae in November 2022, speculations have abounded about her possible future role in the North Korean leadership. She has been seen accompanying her father to missile launches and other military-related events. 

Edited by Robert Lauler. 

Rochelle Leonor

Rochelle Leonor is one of Daily NK’s volunteers. She is a digital marketer by profession and is currently taking her MA in Asian Studies (Northeast Asia-Korea) from the University of the Philippines.

MORE STORIES

Two opposing views of “North Korean Defectors’ Day” in North Korea

March 19, 2024

Behind N. Korea’s lockdown of Kaesong in July 2020

March 19, 2024

dailynk.com

11. Behind N. Korea’s lockdown of Kaesong in July 2020

A rather sensational report. I have seen no other reporting along these lines. 

I am not sure how a mass defection from Kaseong would have occurred. But one of the many contingencies we postulated by the regime when faced with internal instability was to march many thousands South to the DMZ to press the ROK to accept them and provide aid to the north.

Behind N. Korea’s lockdown of Kaesong in July 2020

If North Korea hadn't provided emergency supplies and rushed the regime's No. 2 to the city, a mass defection might have occurred

By Kim Jeong Yoon - March 19, 2024

dailynk.com

Behind N. Korea’s lockdown of Kaesong in July 2020 - Daily NK English

On July 30, 2020, Choe Ryong Hae, chairman of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly, visited Kaesong to inspect emergency epidemic prevention efforts, Rodong Sinmun reported. (Rodong Sinmun-News1)

In July 2020, Kaesong was put on lockdown when a North Korean defector crossed the inter-Korean border amid the COVID pandemic.

According to media reports, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered a complete lockdown of the city, including a ban on inter-district and inter-regional travel, immediately after receiving a report of the incident on July 24. The next day, the Politburo of the Central Committee held an emergency meeting and declared a state of emergency in Kaesong.

All Kaesong residents had to isolate themselves at home. Emergency quarantine teams – the only people allowed to travel freely in the city at that time – earned illegal cash or cigarettes by delivering needed supplies to families or passing messages between households.

A few days after Kaesong was suddenly sealed off, people from food-insecure families, the elderly and infirm, and those living alone began collapsing from anemia and hunger. At the same time, a handful of suspected cases of COVID-19 appeared.

The nervous Kaesong Party Committee sent an emergency proposal directly to Kim Jong Un. The proposal said that Kaesong residents were suffering and their livelihoods were being jeopardized by the sudden early lockdown imposed after the defector’s illegal return to the city and by the appearance of suspected cases of COVID-19.

The Kaesong Party Committee’s proposal called for preparations for a “special situation” because Kaesong is a border town on the inter-Korean border. This meant that the government should take into account the possibility that Kaesong residents might make an “extreme choice” – defection to the South – if pushed to the brink.

North Korea’s leadership hurriedly reacts

Aware of the seriousness of the situation, the North Korean authorities quickly sent supplies to Kaesong at the request of the city’s party committee. The authorities also sent Choe Ryong Hae, the country’s number two official, to the city. Choe inspected quarantine checkpoints around the city, checked the delivery of supplies and held talks with quarantine officials on the spot.

He ordered the quarantine officials to carry out disinfection and quarantine activities strictly “in accordance with epidemiological requirements” and in line with the “intensive and continuous efforts to ensure supplies such as food and medicine required by the situation of Kaesong residents” in accordance with the party and state measures.

One Kaesong resident recalled the sense of extreme urgency at the time. “When the authorities announced that a defector had returned from the South, people whispered that if it was so easy to return to the North, it must be easy to defect to the South,” he said. “Thank God they gave us some supplies. Otherwise, with South Korea so close, we might all have decided to defect to the South.”

In other words, if the North Korean authorities had tightened the blockade without taking measures such as providing emergency supplies and rushing Choe Ryong Hae to the city to check on things, an unthinkable mass defection might have occurred.

“Even now, if you ask Kaesong residents what was the most difficult time during the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, they would answer that it was when the defector returned from the South and the city was suddenly put under lockdown, with authorities closing markets, banning travel and even preventing people from drawing water from public faucets or wells outside their villages,” the Kaesong resident said.

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler. 

Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Kim Jeong Yoon

Kim is a journalist who writes the series “North Korea’s Secret Stories” for Daily NK.

MORE STORIES

dailynk.com

12. Presidential election in Taiwan: its implications for Seoul

Conclusion:

We often talk about the importance of heeding “Gray Rhinos” and “Black Swans” ahead of us. Conflict in the strait, were it to happen, will definitely belong to such categories of events for South Korea in view of its security and economic implications. There are ample reasons why we must join efforts to maintain peace and stability along the strait.

Presidential election in Taiwan: its implications for Seoul

The Korea Times · March 19, 2024

By Ahn Ho-young

Ahn Ho-young

An important election was held in Taiwan in Janaury. Lai Ching-te was elected as the new president. His candidacy was the subject of intense negative campaigning by China, while the United States supported him. His election is worried to lead to aggravated military and economic pressures by China, raising tension in Northeast Asia and bringing a negative impact upon the Republic of Korea. I recently participated in a debate on the election with a group of scholars and former diplomats who have long followed China-related issues. I wish to share some of the highlights of the debate.

The first issue that attracted my attention was Lai’s position on the inter-strait relations between China and Taiwan. Lai used to be the leader of the so-called New Tide Faction in his Democratic Progressive Party, strongly supporting Taiwan’s independence. However, after he was appointed as a candidate, he made hard efforts to dilute his past position on the issue. In a nutshell, he tried hard to say that his position on independence is not too different from that of President Tsai Ing-wen’s, which is understood as pro-status quo.

Such efforts of Lai must be closely observed by Beijing and Washington. Washington supports such change in Lai’s position because it would help to reduce tension in the inter-strait relations. On the other hand, the relations would continue to remain tense and could lead to armed conflict for many reasons: Almost 80 percent of people in Taiwan identify themselves as “Taiwanese” in recent opinion polls; Chinese President Xi Jinping’s intense fixation on unification with Taiwan, even through military means; and the difficulty in predicting Donald Trump’s Taiwan-related actions were he to be elected as U.S. president again.

Another important issue was the possibility of heightened Chinese military pressure on Taiwan. When U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China put up an unprecedentedly large military exercise around Taiwan. Since then, China has willfully crossed the median line in the strait and routinely held greater military activity around Taiwan. China is also strengthening diplomatic isolation of Taiwan and gray zone tactics like shifting the flight path of its commercial flights further east. On top of all these actions, would China raise the tension higher, for example, by imposing a naval blockade around Taiwan?

A large number of participants thought that China would stop short of that for many reasons: both Beijing and Washington are now trying to stabilize the bilateral relations between the two; Lai is cautiously lowering his pro-independence posture; and China cannot afford higher instability in the strait, when it has to focus on economic difficulties at home.

At the same time, many participants were of the view that Seoul must prepare for a possible military conflict in the strait. It will not be an option for South Korea to engage directly because, were a conflict to flare up in the strait, there will be a high likelihood of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula as well. However, since there’s a high chance that the U.S. will be engaged in case of a military conflict in the strait, Korea should think and prepare about how to help with the U.S. efforts.

The third set of issues discussed was the possibility of China’s increased economic pressure. China openly supported the Nationalist Party’s candidate for president, and took measures not consistent with the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with Taiwan. China, for example, suspended tariff concessions to a large number of products imported from Taiwan. Would China take additional measures, like raising tariffs for semiconductors from Taiwan? Such a measure would be far more painful for Taiwan than tariffs on agricultural products. However, the chance of such a measure was not deemed high when TSMC provides more than 50 percent of system semiconductors for the world market.

In this connection, it was noted that Lai has often expressed a wish to strengthen economic relations with South Korea, especially in efforts to secure a supply chain in the increasingly fragmented world market. A large number of participants were of the view that South Korea and Taiwan should further strengthen economic cooperation, including in the semiconductor sector. Several of them took note of the fact that South Korea’s Guideline on Exchanges and Cooperation with Taiwan was last amended in 1998 and needs to be reviewed, recognizing the political and economic changes in the past several decades.

We often talk about the importance of heeding “Gray Rhinos” and “Black Swans” ahead of us. Conflict in the strait, were it to happen, will definitely belong to such categories of events for South Korea in view of its security and economic implications. There are ample reasons why we must join efforts to maintain peace and stability along the strait.

Ahn Ho-young is chair professor at the Kyungnam University. He served as ambassador to the U.S. and vice foreign minister.

The Korea Times · March 19, 2024

13. North's Kim threatens to destroy Seoul during multiple rocket launch drill

How many times has the regime said it would turn Seoul into a sea of fire and made other such threats. I recall dating back to at least the 1990s such phrases were used but the regime has been consistent in its threats to the ROK and Seoul for seven plus decades. This is not new.

Tuesday

March 19, 2024

 dictionary + A - A 

Published: 19 Mar. 2024, 15:09

North's Kim threatens to destroy Seoul during multiple rocket launch drill

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-03-19/national/northKorea/Norths-Kim-threatens-to-destroy-Seoul-during-multiple-rocket-launch-drill/2005880

In this photo released by Pyongyang's state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Tuesday, six missiles are fired from multiple launch rocket systems during a drill that took place at an unspecified location the previous day. [YONHAP]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called on his regime's military to be prepared to destroy Seoul as he oversaw a drill involving multiple rocket launchers, according to Pyongyang's state media on Tuesday.  

According to the North’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim made the remarks during a drill by artillery units in the country’s western region using 600-millimeter multiple launch rocket systems on Monday. 

The specifications detailed in the KCNA report appeared to match those of the KN-25, which the North officially describes as a “super-large caliber” multiple launch rocket system, but is classified by the U.S. as a short-range ballistic missile system due to its larger size and greater range compared to traditional rocket artillery.

The KCNA also reported that Monday’s launches included a midair detonation of a warhead launched from the same system at a designated altitude above a target. 

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that day it detected several short-range ballistic missile launches from the vicinity of Pyongyang. 

Related Article

North welcomes Blinken with short-range missile test

North’s Kim calls South Korea ‘main enemy’

The KCNA quoted Kim as calling the multiple launch rocket system one of “the core striking means” of the regime’s military and that the drill was intended “to further impress upon our enemies that they cannot avoid disastrous consequences if war breaks out.”

The KN-25 is one of several missile systems that the North has previously claimed is capable of delivering tactical nuclear weapons. 

Reports on the February 2023 military parade by the North’s state media referred to the KN-25 and other missile systems on display as critical assets deployed by the regime’s “tactical nuclear weapons operation units.”

In comments that appeared to suggest Seoul would be the North’s primary target in an armed conflict, Kim also said the drill involving his regime’s “destructive offensive means” would enable the North Korean military to “thoroughly fulfill their missions to block and suppress the possibility of war with their constant perfect preparedness to collapse the capital of the enemy and its military organization.”

In January, Kim called South Korea his regime’s “unchanging primary enemy” and called for a constitutional revision defining it as such.

While photos released by the KCNA showed six missiles being launched simultaneously, the JCS said Tuesday it believes the North likely launched more missiles afterward.

“The photos appear to show the first simultaneous launches, and we assess that there were more launches later,” JCS spokesman Lt. Col. Lee Chang-hyun said at a press briefing.

The previous day, the JCS issued a statement that “strongly condemned” the missile launches, calling them “a clear provocation that imperils peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”

The latest launches punctuated a month of relative inactivity in weapons testing by the North, which launched cruise missiles on five separate occasions earlier this year.

The launches occurred the same day that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in South Korea to attend the Summit for Democracy and four days after South Korea and the United States concluded their annual Freedom Shield joint exercise.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

​14. Combatant commanders head to Capitol Hill to face budget questions

Combatant commanders head to Capitol Hill to face budget questions

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · March 18, 2024

Key defense leaders will testify on Capitol Hill this week on the White House’s fiscal 2025 budget request, even as the fiscal 2024 military appropriations plan still needs to be completed.

Seven combatant commanders are scheduled to appear at hearings on Wednesday and Thursday, with all expecting to face questions about their respective sections of the budget ask. Lawmakers hope to have work on that spending plan done ahead of Oct. 1, the start of the new fiscal year.

But the House and Senate also need to finalize a partial government funding plan — including the Department of Defense’s appropriations — for fiscal 2024. Most federal agencies have been operating on short-term budget plans for the last five months, but lawmakers hope to pass a full-year plan by the end of this week.

If they fail to adopt those plans by Friday, it could trigger a partial government shutdown, one which could halt military paychecks for several weeks and furlough tens of thousands of Defense Department civilian employees.

Tuesday, March 19

House Foreign Affairs — 1 p.m. — 2172 Rayburn

Afghanistan Withdrawal

Former Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and former head of U.S. Central Command Gen. Kenneth McKenzie Jr. will testify on decisions leading up to the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan in 2021.

Wednesday, March 20

Senate Foreign Relations — 9:30 a.m. — Capitol S-116

Nominations

The committee will consider several pending nominations, including Michael Sfraga to be Ambassador at Large for Arctic Affairs.

House Armed Services — 10 a.m. — 2118 Rayburn

Indo-Pacific Region

Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and Gen. Paul LaCamera, head of U.S. Forces Korea, will testify on current challenges and the fiscal 2025 budget request.

House Homeland Security — 10 a.m. — 310 Cannon

Iran

Outside experts will testify on the security threat posed by Iran.

House Foreign Affairs — 10:15 a.m. — 2172 Rayburn

Pakistan

State Department officials will testify on the future of democracy in Pakistan.

House Veterans' Affairs — 10:30 a.m. — 360 Cannon

Pending Legislation

The subcommittee on economic opportunity will consider several pending bills.

House Appropriations — 10:30 a.m. — 2362-A Rayburn

Military Quality of Life

Senior enlisted leaders from each of the services will testify on potential military quality of life changes in the fiscal 2025 budget request.

House Foreign Affairs — 12 p.m. — 2172 Rayburn

Pending Legislation

The committee will consider several pending bills.

House Veterans' Affairs — 1 p.m. — 360 Cannon

VA Disability Claims

Department officials will testify on disability claim case appeals and potential improvements to the system.

Senate Armed Services — 2 p.m. — 222 Russell

Defense Acquisition Systems

Members of the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution Reform Commission will present their findings to the committee.

House Armed Services — 3:30 p.m. — 2118 Rayburn

Special Operations Forces

Gen. Bryan Fenton, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, and Christopher Maier, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, will testify on current challenges and the fiscal 2025 budget request.

Thursday, March 21

Senate Foreign Relations — 9:30 a.m. — Capitol S-116

Pending Business

The committee will consider several pending bills and nominations.

House Foreign Affairs — 10 a.m. — 2172 Rayburn

Chinese Military Technology

State and Commerce Department officials will testify on Chinese military use of American technology.

House Armed Services — 10 a.m. — 2118 Rayburn

Middle East/North Africa

Gen. Michael Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael Langley, head of U.S. Africa Command, and Gen. Paul LaCamera, head of U.S. Forces Korea will testify on current challenges and the fiscal 2025 budget request.

Senate Foreign Relations — 10:30 a.m. — 419 Dirksen

U.S. Anti-Corruption Strategy

State Department officials will testify on anti-corruption strategies and challenges in foreign countries.

House Veterans' Affairs — 11 a.m. — 360 Cannon

Toxic Exposures Fund

Department officials will testify on toxic exposure disability claims and how the Toxic Exposures Fund is handled in the White House’s fiscal 2025 budget request.

House Veterans' Affairs — 2 p.m. — 360 Cannon

Pending Legislation

The subcommittee on health will consider several pending bills.

House Armed Services — 3:30 p.m. — 2212 Rayburn

Strategic Forces Posture

Members will hear testimony from Gen. Anthony Cotton, head of U.S. Strategic Command; Gen. Stephen Whiting, head of U.S. Space Command; and Gen. Gregory Guillot, head of U.S. Northern Command on strategic forces posture for fiscal year 2025.

House Veterans' Affairs — 4:30 p.m. — 360 Cannon

Pending Legislation

The subcommittee on oversight will consider several pending bills.

Friday, March 22

House Armed Services — 9 a.m. — 2118 Rayburn

Military Technology and Artificial Intelligence

John Sherman, Chief Information Officer for the Department of Defense, and Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, director of the Defense Information Systems Agency, will testify on military priorities for digital modernization, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.

About Leo Shane III

Leo covers Congress, Veterans Affairs and the White House for Military Times. He has covered Washington, D.C. since 2004, focusing on military personnel and veterans policies. His work has earned numerous honors, including a 2009 Polk award, a 2010 National Headliner Award, the IAVA Leadership in Journalism award and the VFW News Media award.

​15. N. Korea resumes provocations in 33 days

We must not forget that these missile launches could be "commercials" to help sell its weapons.

Excerpt:

The possibility that North Korea was showing off the performance of the missiles with the aim of exporting them to Russia was also raised. The provocation might have been motivated by achieving sales of other KN missiles to Russia, following the North Korean KN-23, whose performance at the battle was proven during the Ukrainian war. “North Korea is expected to raise the level of its provocations by launching additional missiles and military reconnaissance satellites with the key political events coming up next month, including the birthday of Kim Il Sung on April 15 and Korean People's Army Foundation Day on April 26,” said a military source.

N. Korea resumes provocations in 33 days

donga.com

Posted March. 19, 2024 07:31,

Updated March. 19, 2024 07:31

N. Korea resumes provocations in 33 days. March. 19, 2024 07:31. by Sang-Ho Yun ysh1005@donga.com.

North Korea launched short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), which are suspected to be KN-25, into the East Sea on Monday. This is the country’s second ballistic missile provocation this year since the launch of a hypersonic solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile in January. The launch of ballistic missiles is in violation of the U.N. Security Council’s resolutions. When it comes to its missile provocation, it has been about one month since the North launched a surface-to-ship cruise missile, Badasuri-6, on February 14.

According to the South Korean military, three SRBMs were launched from Pyongyang to the East Sea between 7:44 a.m. and 8:22 a.m. on Monday. The missiles traveled over 300 kilometers with a peak altitude of 50 kilometers before falling near Alsom island in Kilju, North Hamgyong Province. If they had been launched toward the South, they would’ve reached key military bases of South Korea, including the base of the F-35A stealth fighter, a key strategic weapon of South Korea’s kill chain against the North, and Gyeryongdae in South Chungcheong Province where the headquarters of military services are located. Given the flight characteristics and other data, they are believed to be KN-25. The South Korean military first announced that they were launched from Sangwon, North Hwanghae Province, and later corrected to near Pyongyang. The Sangwon missile base and Pyongyang International Airport are about 50 kilometers apart.

The military is monitoring the movements, which indicates further provocations. “North Korea had resumed its ‘provocation mode’ before the April general elections in South Korea after staying quiet during the Freedom Shield combined exercise between South Korea and the U.S.,” said a military source. Some say that the missiles were launched in consideration of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to South Korea. The missiles were launched two hours before the opening of the democracy summit, which was held in Seoul with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and the Secretary of State in presence.

The possibility that North Korea was showing off the performance of the missiles with the aim of exporting them to Russia was also raised. The provocation might have been motivated by achieving sales of other KN missiles to Russia, following the North Korean KN-23, whose performance at the battle was proven during the Ukrainian war. “North Korea is expected to raise the level of its provocations by launching additional missiles and military reconnaissance satellites with the key political events coming up next month, including the birthday of Kim Il Sung on April 15 and Korean People's Army Foundation Day on April 26,” said a military source.

한국어

donga.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com