|
USS Rafael Peralta conducts Jeju, Republic of Korea Port Visit
Quotes of the Day:
"I cannot help fearing that men may reach a point where they look on every new theory a danger, every innovation as a toilsome trouble, every social advance as a first step toward revolution, and that they may absolutely refuse to move at all."
- Alexis de Tocqueville
“I have lived a thousand lives and I have loved a thousand loves. I’ve walked distant worlds and seen the end of time. Because I read.”
- George R.R. Martin
"Success is peace of mind which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you did your best to become the best you are capable of becoming."
- John Wooden
1. North Korea’s food shortage is about to take a deadly turn for the worse, experts say
2. Starving North Korean parents increasingly abandoning children at orphanages
3. Gasoline and diesel prices in North Korea have increased by at least two-fold in the past year.
4. South Korea, US Announce Largest Military Exercises in 5 Years
5. N. Korea renews vow to bolster nuclear arsenal
6. S. Korea's military to introduce 'Kill Web' concept to counter N. Korea's missile, nuke threats
7. China as 'honest broker'
8. No shortcuts on road to reunification
9. Today in History: 1994 North Korean Nuclear Crisis
10. Military ups readiness against possible NK provocations ahead of joint drills with US
11. South Korea, U.S. shirk North Korea's threats of "counteractions," carry on planning for joint war games
12. USS Rafael Peralta conducts Jeju, Republic of Korea Port Visit
1. North Korea’s food shortage is about to take a deadly turn for the worse, experts say
I know I am a broken record but these indicators bear watching. We need to be ready for the full range of contingencies from war to regime collapse. Conditions could be much worse than the Arduous March of 1994-96.
North Korea’s food shortage is about to take a deadly turn for the worse, experts say
Analysis by Paula Hancocks, CNN
Updated 8:47 PM EST, Fri March 3, 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/03/asia/north-korea-hunger-famine-food-shortages-intl-hnk
Concerns about North Korea’s chronic food shortages are growing, with multiple sources suggesting this week that deaths due to starvation are likely.
Some experts say the country has hit its worst point since a 1990s famine known as the “Arduous March” caused mass starvation and killed hundreds of thousands of people, or an estimated 3-5% of what was then a 20 million-strong population.
Trade data, satellite images and assessments by the United Nations and South Korean authorities all suggest the food supply has now “dipped below the amount needed to satisfy minimum human needs,” according to Lucas Rengifo-Keller, a research analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Even if food was distributed equally – something close to inconceivable in North Korea where the elite and military take priority – Rengifo-Keller said “you would have hunger-related deaths.”
South Korean officials agree with that assessment, with Seoul announcing recently that it believes deaths from starvation are occurring in some areas of the country. Though producing solid evidence to back up those claims is made difficult by the country’s isolation, few experts doubt its assessment.
Even before the Covid pandemic, nearly half of the North Korean population was undernourished, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Three years of closed borders and isolation can only have made matters worse.
In a sign of just how desperate the situation has become, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a four-day Workers’ Party meeting this week to discuss a revamp of the country’s agricultural sector, calling for a “fundamental transformation” in farming and state economic plans and a need to strengthen state control of farming.
North Korean trucks loaded with sacks of maize wait for clearance at the Chinese border in 1997, during the famine period known as the "Arduous March."
Anu Nousiainen/AFP/Getty Images/FILE
But various experts say Pyongyang has only itself to blame for the problems. During the pandemic, Pyongyang ramped up its isolationist tendencies, erecting a second layer of fencing along 300 kilometers of its border with China and squeezing what little cross border trade it had access to.
And in the past year it has spent precious resources carrying out a record number of missile tests.
“There’s been shoot on sight orders (at the border) that were put in place in August 2020 … a blockade on travel and trade, which has included what very limited official trade (there was before),” said Lina Yoon, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch.
During 2022, China officially exported nearly 56 million kilograms of wheat or maslin flour and 53,280 kg of cereals in grain/flakes form to North Korea, according to Chinese customs data.
But Pyongyang’s clampdown has strangled off unofficial trade, which as Yoon points out is “one of the main lifelines of the markets inside North Korea where ordinary North Koreans buy products.”
Cases in which people smuggle Chinese products into the country, with a bribe to a border guard to look the other way, have been next to non-existent since the borders closed.
Various experts say the root problem is years of economic mismanagement and that Kim’s efforts to ramp up state control further will only make things worse.
“The North Korean borders need to open and they need to restart trade and they need to bring these things in for agriculture to improve and they need food to feed the people. But right now they are prioritizing isolation, they are prioritizing repression,” Yoon said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un addresses the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on February 26, 2023.
KCNA/Reuters
But as Rengifo-Keller pointed out, it is not in Kim’s interest to allow the unofficial trade of the past to re-emerge in this dynastically ruled country. “The regime does not want a flourishing entrepreneurial class that can threaten its power.”
Then there are the missile tests Kim remains obsessed with and his constant refusals of offers of aid from his neighbor.
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin told CNN in an interview last week that “the only way that North Korea can get out of this trouble is to come back to the dialogue table and accept our humanitarian offer to the North and make a better choice for the future.”
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo told CNN Thursday said the situation “is worsening, our intelligence shows, because it’s clear that their policies are changing… the chairman (Kim Jong Un) would like to put a lot of pressure to make it state dictated, you know, supply of food to their people, which will not function.”
Seoul’s Ministry of Unification was quick to point out Pyongyang continues to focus on its missile and nuclear program rather than feeding its own people.
A visitor looks over the border between South and North Korea from the Unification Observation Post in Paju, South Korea.
Ahn Young-joon/AP
In a briefing last month, vice spokesperson Lee Hyo-jung said, “according to local and international research institutions, if North Korea had used the expense of the missiles it launched last year on food supplies, it would have been enough to purchase over one million tons of food, believed to be more than enough to cover North Korea’s annual food shortage.”
Seoul’s rural development agency believes North Korea’s crop production last year was 4% lower than the year before, suffering flooding and adverse weather.
Rengifo-Keller fears the culmination of these effects coupled with the regime’s “misguided approach to economic policy” could have a disastrous impact on the already suffering population.
“This is a chronically malnourished population for decades, high rates of stunting and all signals point to a deteriorating situation, so it certainly wouldn’t take much to push the country into famine.”
CNN · by Paula Hancocks · March 3, 2023
2. Starving North Korean parents increasingly abandoning children at orphanages
Desperate actions based on misinformation (that orphanages receive international food aid).
Can any of us imagine this level of suffering and desperation in our lives?
Excerpts:
Most families in North Korea must run side businesses because salaries for government-assigned jobs are not enough to live on. A large portion of side businesses involve buying imported goods in one location, then selling them at a higher price in another.
...
The resulting lack of income has meant that many have had to decrease their food intake, including families with children.
“As more and more residents abandon their young children at the orphanage, the city authorities are taking pictures of the babies' faces and handing them over to the local safety departments to find the parents and send the babies back to their families,” the second source said.
Residents are however critical of the authorities, saying that they are not doing enough to solve the problem of people’s livelihoods to the point that people are willing to abandon their children.
Starving North Korean parents increasingly abandoning children at orphanages
Desperate acts driven partly by belief that orphanages have international food aid.
By Hyemin Son for RFA Korean
2023.03.02
rfa.org
North Korean orphanages are growing as starving parents drop off their children in the middle of the night in hopes that the kids, at least, will be able to eat, sources in the country told Radio Free Asia.
The acts of desperation are founded in part by the belief that orphanages receive supplies of food and medicine donated by the international community, despite Pyongyang’s restrictive COVID policies.
“On the morning of [Feb. 27], an employee of the orphanage in Pukchang county found a 2-year-old girl lying at the front door of the orphanage,” a resident of the county in South Pyongan province, north of Pyongyang, told RFA’s Korean Service.
“Women who are starving to death are secretly leaving their children … at night or in the early morning, and then they disappear with no trace,” said the source. “[They know] that the international community has been sending things like food, oil, and clothing to the orphanages over the years, so the kids will at least not starve.”
North Korea has suffered from chronic food shortages since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The food situation was made worse by the coronavirus pandemic, when North Korea and China closed their border and suspended all trade.
Although rail freight has resumed, the food shortages are still worse than they were pre-pandemic.
Dwindling foreign aid
Foreign aid has declined. North Korea received about U.S.$40 million per year in aid between 2016 and 2020 according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ Financial Tracking Service.
But COVID-19 policies that rejected outside help meant that aid decreased sharply to $14 million in 2021 and further decreased to a mere $2.3 million in 2022.
While it is not known how much of the aid was going to orphanages each year, it is reasonable to assume that they are receiving less than they were pre-pandemic.
Pukchang county, which has a population of about 140,000 people has thus seen the small orphanage’s numbers swell to about 110 children, according to the source.
Two orphanages in the same province, in the city of Sunchon, have seen babies appear on their doorsteps almost every week, a source there told RFA.
“In the Ryonpo neighborhood where I live, they turned a company’s recreation center into an orphanage back in 2012,” the second source said. “A few days ago, there was a 3-year-old boy found crying on their doorstep.”
The source said that a ban on local travel due to COVID-19 restrictions still in place has limited many people’s ability to earn money.
Most families in North Korea must run side businesses because salaries for government-assigned jobs are not enough to live on. A large portion of side businesses involve buying imported goods in one location, then selling them at a higher price in another.
‘Taking photos of babies’ faces’
The resulting lack of income has meant that many have had to decrease their food intake, including families with children.
“As more and more residents abandon their young children at the orphanage, the city authorities are taking pictures of the babies' faces and handing them over to the local safety departments to find the parents and send the babies back to their families,” the second source said.
Residents are however critical of the authorities, saying that they are not doing enough to solve the problem of people’s livelihoods to the point that people are willing to abandon their children.
Data on the number of orphaned children in North Korea is unclear, but the South Korea-based North Korean Refugees Human Rights Association estimated in 2020 that as many as 40,000 North Korean orphans had escaped the country and were living in China.
For those still in North Korea, life as an orphan is often spent performing forced labor for the state. RFA reported in November that many orphans were among a workforce of young people who state media said had “volunteered” to work in coal mines and rural farms.
The U.S. State Department accused North Korea of “the worst forms of child labor” in its report on human rights practices in the country for 2020.
Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Written in English by Eugene Whong. Edited by Malcolm Foster.
rfa.org
3. Gasoline and diesel prices in North Korea have increased by at least two-fold in the past year.
A graphic is at the link: https://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/2023/03/society-economy/dageki/
＜Inside N. Korea＞Gasoline and diesel prices in North Korea have increased by at least two-fold in the past year. Why are prices increasing in North Korea when they are falling in other countries?
asiapress.org
(FILE PHOTO) Soldiers repairing a broken-down vehicle that runs on burning charcoal. Most of these vehicles are used for transport by the military. Taken by JANG Jong-gil on the outskirts of Pyongyang in September 2008. (ASIAPRESS)
North Korean gasoline and diesel prices continue their march upwards. Compared to January of last year, gasoline has almost doubled in price, while diesel has increased by almost three-fold (by 2.7 times to be exact). The dramatic rise in international fuel prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is ending, so why are fuel prices continuing to increase in North Korea? (KANG Ji-won)
◆ The Kim Jong-un regime heavily controls fuel supplies
Fuel in North Korea is expensive, even compared to Japan or South Korea. For example, one liter of gasoline in South Korea purchased with cash cost KRW 1,580 as of late February, while diesel cost around KRW 1,560. In North Korea, one liter of gasoline cost KRW 1,820, while diesel cost KRW 1,615.
The international price of fuel rose steadily worldwide due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; however, it began falling in June of last year. South Korean gasoline prices, for example, have fallen by KRW 558.
Why, then, are North Korea’s market prices for fuel still rising? A reporting partner in the northern part of the country told ASIAPRESS that “it is because the authorities have drastically limited the amount (of fuel) circulating in the market,” further explaining that:
“Supplies of fuel are under state control, but state-run fuel supply depots have sold fuel into markets, allowing anyone to buy it. There has also been a lot of corruption in the military and other government agencies, with people siphoning off fuel (where they can). As a result, it’s now become difficult to buy fuel at fuel supply depots. They don’t sell the fuel unless you have haengpyo, which are used by government agencies and enterprises.”
Haengpyo are akin to checks and are used by organizations to pay for goods or services.
Trends in gasoline and diesel prices in North Korea based on surveys conducted by ASIAPRESS.
◆ North Korea’s crisis in transporting strategic goods such as coal and fertilizer
In accordance with UN Security Council sanctions that were intensified in 2017, North Korea is allowed to import 90% less refined petroleum products than in 2016, for a total of 500,000 barrels per year.
To add to existing difficulties, the COVID-19 pandemic led to even more troubles for North Korea’s economy. The Kim Jong-un regime was forced to suppress private sales of fuel to ensure that enough of the valuable commodity was available for use by key organizations in the country.
In regards to this, the reporting partner told ASIAPRESS that “people who want to buy refined petroleum products with cash must rely more than ever on haengpyo purchased by agencies, and that’s the reason why (fuel) prices have risen.”
The rising cost of refined petroleum products creates major issues for the economy. Government agencies, state-run firms, and farms are suffering severe difficulties in transporting needed materials such as coal and fertilizer due to rising fuel costs.
For example, many collective farms in the country are promising a percentage of the fertilizer in advance to the people transporting it as a way to cover fuel costs needed to move the fertilizer in the first place. What this means, however, is that farms have less fertilizer to use in the fields.
※ ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.
asiapress.org
4. South Korea, US Announce Largest Military Exercises in 5 Years
A return to sustained deterrence and defense. And I think in the coming months and years we will actually reach a new level of readiness that will be superior to 2017.
South Korea, US Announce Largest Military Exercises in 5 Years
The South Korean and U.S. militaries are preparing to conduct two exercises: Freedom Shield, a computer-simulated training, and Warrior Shield FTX, large-scale joint field training.
thediplomat.com · by Hyung-jin Kim · March 4, 2023
Advertisement
The South Korean and U.S. militaries announced Friday they will hold their biggest joint field exercises in five years later this month, as the United States flew a long-range B-1B bomber to the Korean Peninsula in a show of force against North Korea.
The North has threatened to take “unprecedently” strong action against such exercises. It’s likely that it will respond to the upcoming training with missile tests because it views it as an invasion rehearsal.
In a joint news conference, the South Korean and U.S. militaries said they will conduct the Freedom Shield exercise, a computer-simulated command post training, from March 13 to 23 to strengthen their defense and response capabilities, and separate large-scale joint field training exercises called Warrior Shield FTX.
Col. Isaac L. Taylor, a spokesperson for the U.S. military, said the field training will include a combined amphibious drill and that their size would return to the scale of the allies’ earlier biggest springtime field exercises, called Foal Eagle.
The two countries last conducted Foal Eagle in 2018. They then canceled or downsized some combined drills to support now-stalled diplomacy with North Korea and guard against the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, however, the two countries have been expanding their joint military exercises in the face of an evolving North Korean nuclear threat.
Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.
Friday’s deployment of a U.S. B-1B was the aircraft’s first such flyover in joint aerial training with South Korean warplanes since February 19. North Korea is highly sensitive to the deployment of B-1Bs, which are capable of carrying a large conventional weapons payload. It responded to the previous flights of multiple B-1Bs by test-launching two short-range missiles the next day.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the use of a B-1B demonstrated the U.S. determination and ability to use the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its allies.
North Korea test-fired more than 70 missiles last year, the most ever in a single year, and several more this year. Many of the missiles were nuclear-capable weapons designed to strike the U.S. mainland and South Korea.
Advertisement
North Korea has also threatened to use its nuclear weapons preemptively in potential conflicts with the United States and South Korea. The U.S. military has warned it that the use of nuclear weapons “will result in the end of that regime.”
In January, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States would also increase its deployment of advanced weapons such as fighter jets and bombers to the Korean Peninsula.
Last month, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry warned that the U.S. and South Korea would face “unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions” if they carry out planned military drills this year that the North regards as “preparations for an aggression war.”
Later, senior North Korean Foreign Ministry official Kwon Jong Gun said the only way to reduce military tensions on the Korean Peninsula is for the United States to reverse its plans to deploy strategic assets in South Korea and halt joint drills with the South. He said if the United States continues its “hostile and provocative practices” against North Korea, it can be regarded as a declaration of war.
North Korea has previously issued similar rhetoric in times of animosity with the United States and South Korea.
Hyung-jin Kim
Hyung-jin Kim reported for the Associated Press from Seoul, South Korea.
thediplomat.com · by Hyung-jin Kim · March 4, 2023
5. N. Korea renews vow to bolster nuclear arsenal
N. Korea renews vow to bolster nuclear arsenal
The Korea Times · March 4, 2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a meeting of the Central Committee of the country's ruling Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, Jan. 20, 2022, in this photo provided by the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency the following day. YonhapNorth Korea on Saturday renewed its pledge to bolster its nuclear arsenal, claiming its own nuclear deterrence would ensure balance of power in the region.
The North's foreign ministry also criticized the United States for leading to the collapse of international arms control systems.
"Nuclear deterrence ensures a balance of power in the region and a strong physical security to prevent the outbreak of a new war," the North's ministry said in a commentary.
North Korea claimed that unilateral arms buildup of the U.S. and its allies is increasing the risk of armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
The North's statement came as South Korea and the U.S. announced they will carry out joint military exercises this month to strengthen the allies' defensive posture.
The joint drill, called Freedom Shield exercise, is scheduled to take place from March 13-23 without a break, marking the longest-ever edition of their joint computer-simulation command post exercise.
It is to proceed concurrently with the new large-scale field training exercise, called "Warrior Shield," in line with the allies' push to reinforce training programs and enhance their "realism." (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · March 4, 2023
6. S. Korea's military to introduce 'Kill Web' concept to counter N. Korea's missile, nuke threats
Kill Web. WIll the name catch on?
The ROK is really trying hard to innovate to develop the best ways to defend the ROK. There should be no doubt the ROK is committed to its defense.
A useful explanation here:
The Kill Chain is a pillar of the country's three-pronged deterrence system, which also includes the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation, an operational plan to incapacitate the North Korean leadership in a major conflict, and the Korea Air and Missile Defense system.
"The Kill Chain concept is to proceed in a single direction," the official told reporters. "But the Kill Web, like a spider's web, entails frequent mission adjustments to ensure the operational effectiveness."
The official stressed that the Kill Web concept will be used to implement the Kill Chain system "more effectively" rather than replacing it.
In the defense innovation plan, the ministry said it would develop integrated "all-domain" operations capitalizing on AI and other new technologies to ensure that the country's military is capable of "winning a war with minimum casualties in the shortest span of time."
The plan also includes the development of an AI-based vigilance concept using both manned and unmanned equipment to defend major military bases, including front-line guard posts and coastal and seaborne units.
S. Korea's military to introduce 'Kill Web' concept to counter N. Korea's missile, nuke threats
The Korea Times · March 3, 2023
A surveillance drone is deployed during military drills in Paju, northwest of Seoul, Jan. 13. Yonhap
South Korea's military will bring in a more effective operational concept with the aim of neutralizing threats from North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile systems even from a prelaunch stage, the defense ministry said Friday.
The ministry unveiled the scheme to introduce the "Kill Web" concept as part of a basic plan for Defense Innovation 4.0, an initiative by the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to harness cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), to build a smarter and sturdier military.
The Kill Web refers to a multilayered yet integrated apparatus that employs cyberoperations, electronic warfare tactics and other means to disrupt and negate the enemy's move to fire a missile even before its launch, according to a ministry official on condition of anonymity.
Whereas the current Kill Chain preemptive strike system is designed to conduct a contingency mission in a linear, sequential process, the Kill Web is a flexible approach that enables field officers to make adjustments on their initial target decisions to optimize strike operations.
The Kill Chain is a pillar of the country's three-pronged deterrence system, which also includes the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation, an operational plan to incapacitate the North Korean leadership in a major conflict, and the Korea Air and Missile Defense system.
"The Kill Chain concept is to proceed in a single direction," the official told reporters. "But the Kill Web, like a spider's web, entails frequent mission adjustments to ensure the operational effectiveness."
The official stressed that the Kill Web concept will be used to implement the Kill Chain system "more effectively" rather than replacing it.
In the defense innovation plan, the ministry said it would develop integrated "all-domain" operations capitalizing on AI and other new technologies to ensure that the country's military is capable of "winning a war with minimum casualties in the shortest span of time."
The plan also includes the development of an AI-based vigilance concept using both manned and unmanned equipment to defend major military bases, including front-line guard posts and coastal and seaborne units.
Meanwhile, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup called for the military to "completely" change itself to achieve the goal of becoming a strong combat-ready force during a meeting of top military commanders, according to his office.
At the meeting, the ministry outlined a series of key tasks, such as establishing the operation of combat mission-focused units and strengthening realistic training based on scenarios of enemy provocations.
Under the tasks, the ministry seeks to create a training ground that would allow live-fire drills in all weather conditions, as well as to improve working conditions of entry-level officers by increasing their wages. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · March 3, 2023
7. China as 'honest broker'
Excerpts:
By hosting six-party talks, China was able to assert its authority over both Koreas, as in the era of the 500-year Yi dynasty when Korean kings paid obeisance to Chinese rulers. While keeping North Korea on life support, China also emerged as South Korea's biggest trading partner. South Korean leaders are reluctant to offend China despite the South's historic alliance with the United States. President Yoon Suk Yeol may advocate intensified joint exercises with the Americans, but he would not want to join in defending Taiwan, the island province to whose freedom the Americans are committed against a Chinese attack.
As host of talks on Ukraine, China would be in quite a different position. Looking for commercial opportunities, the Chinese could turn the talks into a device for penetrating the regions surrounding Ukraine both commercially and diplomatically. China, importing oil and natural gas from Russia, could strike great deals with the Russians, who would want in effect to bribe the Chinese into almost openly pro-Russian "neutrality." The Chinese would also hope to expand commercial contacts throughout eastern Europe even as Putin sought to fulfill his vision of a Russian empire matching that of the former Soviet Union.
Just as important, by encouraging if not moderating talks on Ukraine, the Chinese could play western European nations, banded together in NATO, led by the Americans, against the Russians. The job of honest broker would give the Chinese an upper hand where now they are secondary if not marginal players.
China as 'honest broker'
The Korea Times · March 2, 2023
By Donald Kirk
WASHINGTON ― We don't have to be told how disappointing the Chinese as moderators or hosts in negotiations are. The failure of the six-party talks on North Korea, run by China from 2003 to 2007, should be enough to convince anyone that talks hosted by Beijing will go nowhere.
Now the Chinese are intimating that they would make a great choice to run talks for settling the war in Ukraine. Remembering the failure of the six-party talks years ago, we can be sure China as moderator of Ukraine talks would guarantee disappointment at best, betrayal at worst.
The Chinese, to be sure, did not openly say they should play a major role in negotiations for a deal on Ukraine. Rather, in a 12-point proposal put out by Beijing, China offered to play a "constructive" role in bringing about the end of the war. That suggestion signaled China's dream of appearing as an honest broker, the peacemaker, bringing about a ceasefire in a conflict that has already taken at least 100,000 lives.
Chinese intervention in the quest for an end to the war would serve no purpose other than to project China as a player in a region in which the Chinese have had little or no influence. China, as moderator, would be sure to tilt the talks in favor of Russia despite China's claims of neutrality. Pointedly, China's proposal for ending the war says nothing about the need for Russian forces to withdraw from territory they've already overrun.
The best that may be said for Beijing's proposal is that it would seem quite difficult for China to sell weapons to the Russians while pretending to want to negotiate a solution. Here too, however, we cannot be sure the Chinese are not using their proposal as a cover for making a deal with the Russians. China would not have to sell basic weapons to Russia to keep Putin happy. He would gladly accept machinery for Russia's arms industry. High-tech equipment would be useful.
The Chinese record as moderator of six-party talks on Korea should provide a warning. While hosting talks on getting North Korea to give up its nuclear program, China made sure to keep supplying the North with virtually all its oil while shipping products needed to enable the North to arm and equip its military establishment of 1.2 million troops. Nor did China persuade North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader, Kim Jong-un, to put his nuclear program on hold. The talks ended soon after North Korea conducted its first underground nuclear test in October 2006.
By hosting six-party talks, China was able to assert its authority over both Koreas, as in the era of the 500-year Yi dynasty when Korean kings paid obeisance to Chinese rulers. While keeping North Korea on life support, China also emerged as South Korea's biggest trading partner. South Korean leaders are reluctant to offend China despite the South's historic alliance with the United States. President Yoon Suk Yeol may advocate intensified joint exercises with the Americans, but he would not want to join in defending Taiwan, the island province to whose freedom the Americans are committed against a Chinese attack.
As host of talks on Ukraine, China would be in quite a different position. Looking for commercial opportunities, the Chinese could turn the talks into a device for penetrating the regions surrounding Ukraine both commercially and diplomatically. China, importing oil and natural gas from Russia, could strike great deals with the Russians, who would want in effect to bribe the Chinese into almost openly pro-Russian "neutrality." The Chinese would also hope to expand commercial contacts throughout eastern Europe even as Putin sought to fulfill his vision of a Russian empire matching that of the former Soviet Union.
Just as important, by encouraging if not moderating talks on Ukraine, the Chinese could play western European nations, banded together in NATO, led by the Americans, against the Russians. The job of honest broker would give the Chinese an upper hand where now they are secondary if not marginal players.
Nor would China's President Xi Jinping mind if the war drags on and on, bogging the Americans down, and distracting them from challenging Chinese claims to the South China Sea as well as Taiwan. China would support Russia's aims, guaranteeing no loss of territory in a deal that would leave Ukraine substantially weaker than before the Russian invasion.
The Russians, with the Chinese looking on, could consolidate their gains and go on to wage another war. As "honest broker," the Chinese could be sure the Russians would reward them handsomely for playing a role that cost them nothing.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) writes from Washington as well as Seoul.
The Korea Times · March 2, 2023
8. No shortcuts on road to reunification
This is a very useful OpEd that outlines many of the arguments against unification, most of which I strongly disagree with.
But he makes some very important points that do apply to unification and is advice worth heeding by all those who do seek unification.
Key excerpts:
In order to even imagine reunification happening, one must first presuppose that the North's regime, led by Kim Jong-un, will collapse. The possible scenarios in which the regime collapses could be external military aggression, total economic breakdown, the sudden death of Kim or a massive anti-regime uprising by the North Korean people. But all of these are currently unlikely. (DSM comment: But they are possible and we must plan for them)
More fundamentally, the reunification of the Korean Peninsula will be possible only when the will of the North Korean people (through the right to self-determination under international law) establishes its desire for unification with the South. If they do not want to reunify with South Korea, the South's desire to do so will be irrelevant. Furthermore, South Korea's constitution pursues liberal democracy and a market economy. If the North Korean people want unification only under a communist or socialist regime, this is a formula that South Korea cannot accept. (DSM Comment: per discussion with escapees most in the north want unification with the South, but this is also the fundamental rationale for a sophisticated information and influence campaign to prepare the korean people in the north for unification).
Thus if South Korea truly desires reunification, it must take a long-term approach to win the support of the North Korean people, so that they will genuinely welcome a unification process with the South that entails an eventual alignment of their political and economic systems. (DSM Comment: again justification for an information and influence activities campaign).
If South Korea is truly a liberal democracy, it is more important to secure consistency in improving human rights in North Korea regardless of conservative and liberal party interests, instead of calling for an impossibly swift unification. Reunification cannot be achieved suddenly, and should not be pursued abruptly. (DSM Comment: This is why we need to human rights upfront approach).
No shortcuts on road to reunification
The Korea Times · March 2, 2023
By Park Jung-won
"Reunification can happen suddenly, so only when we are prepared can we realize it," South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said while attending a policy briefing from the unification ministry on Jan. 27. His remarks caused a big stir for suggesting the possibility of the imminent collapse of the current North Korean regime. In fact, it is not unusual to hear presidents from a conservative party say that unification can occur like lightning.
Former President Lee Myung-bak said in June 2011, "Unification might come in the dead of night like a thief." Former President Park Geun-hye in January 2014 used the direct expression that "unification is a jackpot." It is highly irresponsible for such political leaders to say that unification can come suddenly, like winning the lottery, because it can mislead the general public. Such a rapid reunion of the two Koreas is not possible, either logistically or legally.
In order to even imagine reunification happening, one must first presuppose that the North's regime, led by Kim Jong-un, will collapse. The possible scenarios in which the regime collapses could be external military aggression, total economic breakdown, the sudden death of Kim or a massive anti-regime uprising by the North Korean people. But all of these are currently unlikely.
In the past, the U.S. has reviewed scenarios for a preemptive attack on North Korea, such as a surgical operation on its nuclear facilities or a "decapitation strike" on its leader. However, it is hard to imagine such a U.S. attack on North Korea now, at a time when President Joe Biden opposes unilateral changes to the status quo and is wary of an increasingly powerful China. North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons capable of reaching the U.S. mainland also makes such risky operations virtually inconceivable.
It is reported that the current economic situation in North Korea is precarious, but the collapse of the regime due solely to economic problems is not possible. A society as tightly controlled as North Korea's is unlikely to collapse easily. And there is little chance that Kim Jong-un, who is only 39, will die suddenly. Rather, a domino effect involving the confluence of many unpredictable events, like what happened in Europe when the Eastern Bloc imploded in the early 1990s, could create the greatest chance for the downfall of the North's political regime. Internal instability in China, North Korea's blood ally, for instance, would certainly make the regime's hold on power less assured. But economic difficulties alone are unlikely to cause it to collapse.
Even if Kim's regime were to collapse, it would not automatically mean the reunification of the two Koreas. New power groups, such as remnants of the North's armed forces, could emerge, and even if there were a destabilizing internal power struggle, South Korea's ability to intervene militarily would be limited. Could South Korean troops enter North Korea and clean up the anarchy? North Korea is a member of the United Nations and enjoys statehood recognized by the international community.
Aside from the fact that the South Korean Constitution binds it to pursuing reunification peacefully, if it were to occupy North Korea by force, it would be a clear violation of international law. It might be possible to make a claim that North Korean territory belongs to the South with reference to South Korea's constitutional territoriality clause, but it would be difficult to garner international support for this claim. In addition, China, which has a military alliance treaty with North Korea, might actively intervene in such an emergency to protect its interests. South Korea would be unable to counter such a great power on its own.
More fundamentally, the reunification of the Korean Peninsula will be possible only when the will of the North Korean people (through the right to self-determination under international law) establishes its desire for unification with the South. If they do not want to reunify with South Korea, the South's desire to do so will be irrelevant. Furthermore, South Korea's constitution pursues liberal democracy and a market economy. If the North Korean people want unification only under a communist or socialist regime, this is a formula that South Korea cannot accept.
Thus if South Korea truly desires reunification, it must take a long-term approach to win the support of the North Korean people, so that they will genuinely welcome a unification process with the South that entails an eventual alignment of their political and economic systems.
In South Korea's politics of inter-Korean relations, policies have fluctuated according to "camp logic" with each transition of party power. Inter-Korean relations have only served as a political tool for each party's domestic political interests rather than towards any true pursuit of reunification.
The conservative side says that if Kim's regime collapses, South Korea's free, democratic system will quickly absorb and reunify with North Korea, whereas the progressive side says that a permanent peace will be established on the Korean Peninsula if Kim's regime security is guaranteed by the U.S., ignoring the fact that the North's nuclear weapons target South Korea. Neither side's narrative is rooted in reality.
If South Korea is truly a liberal democracy, it is more important to secure consistency in improving human rights in North Korea regardless of conservative and liberal party interests, instead of calling for an impossibly swift unification. Reunification cannot be achieved suddenly, and should not be pursued abruptly.
Park Jung-won (park_jungwon@hotmail.com), Ph.D. in law from the London School of Economics (LSE), is a professor of international law at Dankook University.
The Korea Times · March 2, 2023
9. Today in History: 1994 North Korean Nuclear Crisis
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the North Korea crisis of 1994 was a clear demonstration of the dangers of naïve foreign policy and the need for strong, rational leadership in international affairs. It showed that appeasement and negotiations with rogue regimes only embolden them and put national security at risk.
The crisis also highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong military and a commitment to deterrence. The successful deployment of military assets to the region and the threat of force played a critical role in bringing North Korea to the negotiating table.
Furthermore, the crisis revealed the failures of previous administrations, particularly the Clinton administration's failed approach of offering concessions and aid in exchange for empty promises. The lesson learned is that rogue states must be held accountable for their actions and words, and any concessions must be based on verifiable actions and not mere rhetoric.
It is important to understand that the North Korea crisis was not an isolated incident, and similar challenges will continue to arise in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain a strong military, advance the cause of democracy and human rights, and support our allies in the region.
In summary, the North Korea crisis of 1994 served as a wake-up call for the United States and the international community to the dangers of rogue regimes and the need for a sensible approach to foreign policy. As William F. Buckley famously said, "National security is not about politics. It's about survival."
Today in History: 1994 North Korean Nuclear Crisis
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/today-history-1994-north-korean-nuclear-crisis-indo-pacific-affairs%3FtrackingId=1R9FT4gWMpgoJUGvnvVaRQ%253D%253D/?trackingId=1R9FT4gWMpgoJUGvnvVaRQ%3D%3D
Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs
5,782 followers
Following
March 3, 2023
by Achala Gunasekara-Rockwell, PhD
Abstract
This article provides an overview of the 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis, which marked the first major international crisis over the development of nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War. The article discusses the causes of the crisis, including North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons as a means of ensuring its own security and international prestige. It also examines the consequences of the crisis, including the isolation of North Korea from much of the international community and the shift in US policy toward engagement with the country. The article concludes by discussing the key lessons learned from the crisis, including the importance of diplomacy and international cooperation in addressing nuclear proliferation, and the need for greater efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries.
Introduction
The 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis was an alarming moment in the global history of nuclear proliferation, as it marked the first major international crisis over the development of nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War. The crisis was caused by North Korea's reckless and dangerous decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in March 1993 and its relentless efforts to build nuclear weapons, which posed a significant threat to global peace and stability. North Korea's actions were not only a direct challenge to the United States and its allies, but also to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is responsible for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
This crisis demonstrated the failure of the international community's efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and highlighted the need for a more robust and effective response to this threat. It also showed that rogue regimes like North Korea must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, as they pose a grave danger to global security. The United States and its allies must remain vigilant and ready to take decisive action to prevent nuclear proliferation and safeguard global peace and security. The 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis serves as a stark reminder of the grave consequences that can arise from ignoring the threat of nuclear proliferation.
Causes of the Crisis
The 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis was a direct result of the failed policies of the Clinton administration, which emboldened the rogue regime to pursue nuclear weapons. The decision by North Korea to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1993 was a predictable outcome of the Clinton administration's policy of appeasement toward the communist regime.
The Clinton administration pursued a misguided policy of engagement with North Korea, which included providing the regime with fuel aid and diplomatic recognition, without any real concessions in return. This policy only served to legitimize the oppressive regime and allowed it to continue its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) failed to take strong enough action to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. The IAEA's weak response to North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT sent a message that the international community was not willing to take a strong stand against nuclear proliferation.
In addition, the failure of the Clinton administration to take action against North Korea's violations of the NPT only further emboldened the regime. The administration's lack of resolve and weak response to North Korea's actions set a dangerous precedent that other rogue regimes could follow.
Taken together, these factors led North Korea to pursue nuclear weapons in earnest in the early 1990s. However, more rational minds believe that North Korea should have focused on improving its economy, rather than developing nuclear weapons to secure aid. Nuclear weapons are a tool of aggression that can destabilize the region and pose a threat to global security. The resulting crisis highlighted the dangers of nuclear proliferation and underscored the need for international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries. It also demonstrated the importance of diplomacy and international cooperation in addressing the challenge of nuclear proliferation, a lesson that remains as relevant today as it was in 1994.
Consequences of the Crisis
The 1994 North Korea crisis had significant consequences, not just for the region but for global security as well. The Clinton administration's decision to engage with North Korea was a grave mistake, as it only emboldened the rogue state and legitimized its nuclear ambitions. Many experts warned at the time that appeasement would only lead to more aggression and instability, and unfortunately, those warnings were proven true.
The Agreed Framework, which was signed between the United States and North Korea in 1994, was a deeply flawed deal that only served to delay the inevitable. The North Koreans promised to freeze their nuclear program in exchange for aid and energy supplies, but they never intended to keep their word. They used the time bought by the agreement to develop their nuclear weapons and ballistic missile capabilities, which only became more sophisticated in the years that followed.
The crisis also exposed the weakness of the Clinton administration's foreign policy, which was based on naive assumptions about the nature of the North Korean regime. Some experts argued that the only way to deal with a rogue state like North Korea was through a policy of containment and deterrence, not appeasement. The Clinton administration's efforts to engage with Pyongyang only served to embolden its leaders and increase the threat to regional and global security.
The consequences of the crisis are still being felt today, with North Korea remaining one of the world's most dangerous regimes. Its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities pose a direct threat to the United States and its allies in the region. More pragmatic policy wonks have long argued that the only way to deal with North Korea is through a combination of economic sanctions, military deterrence, and diplomatic isolation. The failure of the Agreed Framework and the subsequent rise of North Korea as a nuclear power have only reinforced that position.
Lessons Learned
The 1994 North Korea crisis was a stark reminder of the dangers posed by rogue states armed with weapons of mass destruction. The crisis served as a wake-up call to the United States and its allies about the urgent need for a strong and effective policy to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
One of the lessons that we can learn from this crisis is that appeasement and negotiation with rogue states are not effective means of resolving these kinds of situations. North Korea was able to develop nuclear weapons despite multiple rounds of negotiations and concessions from the United States and its allies. This demonstrates that rogue states are not interested in diplomacy and will use any opportunity to advance their nuclear capabilities.
Another important lesson is that the United States must maintain a strong and credible military posture to deter rogue states from pursuing nuclear weapons. During the crisis, North Korea was emboldened by the perception of weakness in US policy and military readiness. As a result, the United States and its allies were forced to make significant concessions to North Korea to avoid a military confrontation.
Finally, the crisis underscores the importance of international cooperation and the need for a coordinated effort to prevent nuclear proliferation. The United States cannot prevent the spread of nuclear weapons alone, and a multilateral approach is necessary to effectively address the threat posed by rogue states.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the North Korea crisis of 1994 was a clear demonstration of the dangers of naïve foreign policy and the need for strong, rational leadership in international affairs. It showed that appeasement and negotiations with rogue regimes only embolden them and put national security at risk.
The crisis also highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong military and a commitment to deterrence. The successful deployment of military assets to the region and the threat of force played a critical role in bringing North Korea to the negotiating table.
Furthermore, the crisis revealed the failures of previous administrations, particularly the Clinton administration's failed approach of offering concessions and aid in exchange for empty promises. The lesson learned is that rogue states must be held accountable for their actions and words, and any concessions must be based on verifiable actions and not mere rhetoric.
It is important to understand that the North Korea crisis was not an isolated incident, and similar challenges will continue to arise in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain a strong military, advance the cause of democracy and human rights, and support our allies in the region.
In summary, the North Korea crisis of 1994 served as a wake-up call for the United States and the international community to the dangers of rogue regimes and the need for a sensible approach to foreign policy. As William F. Buckley famously said, "National security is not about politics. It's about survival."
For more information on North Korea, see the following JIPA productions:
Indo-Pacific Affairs Podcast - Episode 11: Interview with Hyun-seung Lee
North Korean defector Hyun Seung Lee sits for an interview with Captain Shaquille James and Lt Col Sze Miller.
---
Indo-Pacific Affairs Podcast - Episode 6: Interview with David Maxwell
1st Lieutenant Shaquille H. James, USAF, and Lt Col Sze Miller, USAF, interview retired Army colonel David Maxwell, a world-renowned subject-matter expert regarding the Korean peninsula.
---
Indo-Pacific Visions - Episode 2: Interview with Dr. Hyun Ji Rim
Dr. Vandana Bhatia interviews Dr. Hyunji Rimon the topic of Korean geopolitics.
---
"North Korea: Nuclear Threat or Security Problem?," by Stephen J. Blank, Ph.D.
The negotiation process on North Korean nuclearization is stalemated and no change seems likely anytime soon. This stalemate demonstrates the failure of the US policy, a very dangerous situation particularly in view of the absence of any viable American strategic approach to the issue, the ensuing divisions among allies, and lack of a coherent approach to North Korea. Continuing the policy of strategic patience, which would be Washington’s default position if no further progress occurs, is doomed to fail. Therefore, the United States must simultaneously enhance alliance cohesion while pursuing a credible negotiating proposal. This article lays out the reasons why that stance is needed now and is becoming more urgent. Such strategic approach can lead to better negotiated outcomes that would not only bring about denuclearization and North Korean security but also promote a new, more stable, equilibrium in Northeast Asia.
---
"The Potential of Korean Unification and a Unified Korean Armed Forces: A Cultural Interpretation," by Col Michael Edmonston, PhD, USAF
This article examines the prospect of Korean unification and the possibility of a future unified Korean Armed Forces through the lens of culture. Korea provides an interesting subject for cultural study for a few reasons. First, the desires of South and North Koreans suggest that unification, while presently unfeasible, is likely at some point in the future. Second, how to ensure peaceful unification in Korea is a looming strategic question whose answer depends at least partly on whether the cultures of the two Korean states can be reconciled. The dynamics of inter-Korean relations regarding unification suggest the manner of the event’s unfolding is far from decided. Depending on the course of Korea’s unification, there are lessons historical unification cases can offer regarding the military outcome—both what is most likely and what should happen—to maintain peace and stability on the peninsula and in the region. Third, US commitment to stability on the Korean Peninsula demands that the United States take some responsibility for what happens to the militaries of both sides if Korea unifies. Consequently, recommendations for American foreign and military support follow speculation on the possible military outcomes of a Korean unification.
---
"The State as a Transnational Criminal Organization: A North Korea Case Study," by Maj Brian Hill, USAF
Throughout history, many states have tolerated, sponsored, or even partnered with transnational criminal organizations, but the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands out as a nation where the government itself is the criminal organization, directly conducting drug trafficking, counterfeiting, money laundering, and other criminal enterprises. These activities have direct destabilizing effects and contribute to the DPRK’s ability to circumvent sanctions and fund its illicit nuclear weapons program. Moreover, this condition of the state as the criminal organization poses a unique challenge to the international community, requiring a different approach for analyzing and combating the problem. This article explores this phenomenon with a brief historical review of state involvement in transnational crime, then brings together multiple previous analyses to provide a more comprehensive examination of the DPRK as a distinctive case study. It concludes by offering recommendations for further examination and action to counter this destabilizing force that undermines economies and strains national and international security structures.
10. Military ups readiness against possible NK provocations ahead of joint drills with US
All alliance policy and strategy must be built on a foundation of deterrence and defense against north Korea.
Military ups readiness against possible NK provocations ahead of joint drills with US
The Korea Times · March 4, 2023
Col. Lee Sung-jun, right, spokesperson of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, and U.S. Forces Korea spokesperson Col. Isaac L. Taylor address a joint press conference on combined military drills at the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul, March 3. Yonhap
South Korea's military has increased its readiness level against possible North Korean provocations ahead of the combined springtime military exercise with the United States set to begin later this month, sources said Saturday.
The military is prepared to fire artillery shots into "buffer zones" in the North as a countermeasure if Pyongyang violates the 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement by firing into the South's buffer zones first, a military source told Yonhap News Agency on the condition of anonymity.
The tension reduction pact, also dubbed the Sept. 19 agreement, calls for halting all hostile military activity between the two Koreas. It was signed after a 2018 summit between then President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un.
The remarks came ahead of the Freedom Shield exercise, scheduled to take place from March 13 to 23, amid Pyongyang's continuing military provocations.
The North has violated the Sept. 19 agreement by firing artillery shots into maritime "buffer zones" between the Koreas on 13 occasions last year and firing a missile past the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea in November.
At that time, Seoul's military stopped at responding to the provocations beyond joint military drills without equivalent countermeasures.
But late last year, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup told the National Assembly the military will take offensive measures if needed, saying South Korea should not be the only one complying with the agreement.
He made these comments after North Korean drones intruded across the inter-Korean border, Dec. 26, prompting Seoul to send its own unmanned vehicles into the North in a corresponding step.
Observers say North Korea is expected to strongly protest to this year's joint military drill as it includes the new large-scale field training exercise in line with the allies' push to reinforce training programs and enhance their "realism."
Pyongyang has warned that Seoul and Washington would face "unprecedentedly" strong counteractions should they press ahead with this year's plans for the combined drill, which it has decried as preparations for a war of aggression. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · March 4, 2023
11. South Korea, U.S. shirk North Korea's threats of "counteractions," carry on planning for joint war games
Never, ever back down in the face of north Korean threats.
South Korea, U.S. shirk North Korea's threats of "counteractions," carry on planning for joint war games
CBS News
Seoul, South Korea — The South Korean and U.S. militaries said Friday they'll go ahead with large-scale annual military drills later this month despite North Korea's threats to take "unprecedently" strong action against such training. It's likely that North Korea will respond to the upcoming South Korean-U.S. exercises with yet more provocative missile tests and belligerent rhetoric because it views them as an invasion rehearsal.
In a joint press conference, the South Korean and U.S. militaries said they will conduct the Freedom Shield exercise, a computer-simulated command post training, from March 13-23 to strengthen their defense and response capabilities.
They said the training would focus on North Korean aggression, lessons learned from recent conflicts and the changing security environment.
"The Korea-U.S. alliance will prepare for the FS (Freedom Shield) training while maintaining a firm readiness against potential provocations by the North Korean military," said Col. Lee Sung Jun, a spokesperson at the South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Lee said the allies would respond to possible North Korean provocations with "an overwhelming capability."
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's daughter, Ju Ae, makes series of public appearances 02:48
During the exercises, the allies will also conduct a number of large-scale joint field training, called Warrior Shield FTX, to improve their operation execution capabilities, said Col. Isaac L. Taylor, a spokesperson for the U.S. military. He said the field trainings will include a combined amphibious drill.
"The Warrior Shield FTX stands for the ROK-U.S. alliance's capability and resolution to ensure a combined defense posture to defend the ROK," Taylor said, using South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.
South Korea and the United States have been expanding their military exercises in the face of evolving North Korean nuclear threats. Emboldened by its advancing nuclear arsenal, North Korea test-fired more than 70 missiles last year, the most ever for a single year, and several more this year. Many of the missiles tested were nuclear-capable weapons designed to strike the U.S. mainland and South Korea.
North Korea has also threatened to use its nuclear weapons preemptively in potential conflicts with the United States and South Korea. The U.S. military has warned the North that the use of nuclear weapons "will result in the end of that regime."
North Korea military parade displays record number of missiles 02:34
While North Korea has demonstrated the capacity of several of its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to reach the U.S. mainland, there's still debate over whether it has a functioning nuclear-tipped ICBM, as some experts say the North hasn't mastered a way to protect warheads from the severe conditions of atmospheric reentry. The North says it has acquired such a technology.
In January, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. would increase its deployment of advanced weapons, such as fighter jets and bombers, to the Korean Peninsula.
In a photo provided by the South Korean Defense Ministry, a U.S. Air Force B-1B bomber, top, flies in formation with South Korean Air Force KF-16 fighters over the South Korea Peninsula during a joint air drill, March 3, 2023. South Korea Defense Ministry/AP
Last month, North Korea's Foreign Ministry warned the U.S. and South Korea would face "unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions" if they carry out their planned military drills this year that the North regards as "preparations for an aggression war."
Later, Senior North Korean Foreign Ministry official Kwon Jong Gun said that the only way to reduce military tensions on the Korean Peninsula is for the United States to withdraw its plans to deploy strategic assets in South Korea and halt joint drills with its Asian ally. He said if the United States continues its "hostile and provocative practices" against North Korea, that can be regarded as a declaration of war against it.
North Korea has previously issued similar rhetoric in times of animosities with the United States and South Korea.
12. USS Rafael Peralta conducts Jeju, Republic of Korea Port Visit
USS Rafael Peralta conducts Jeju, Republic of Korea Port Visit
cpf.navy.mil
03 March 2023
From Lt. Cmdr. Joe Keiley, Commander, Task Force 71 Public Affairs
JEJU, Republic of Korea – The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) departed Jeju, Republic of Korea following a scheduled port visit March 3.
Download
More Details
JEJU, Republic of Korea (Feb. 27, 2023) – Sailors from the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), man the rails as the ship makes a scheduled port visit to Jeju, Republic of Korea, Feb. 27. Rafael Peralta is assigned to Commander, Task Force 71/Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 15, the Navy’s largest forward-deployed DESRON and the U.S. 7th Fleet’s principal surface force. (U.S. Navy photo by Ensign Mahmoud Abusaid)
230227-N-GA722-1004
Rafael Peralta’s visit underscores the strategic importance of Republic of Korea to an enduring free and open Indo-Pacific by enabling presence, assured access, and defense to the global commons. Visits with the Republic of Korea allows the U.S. Navy to strengthen relationships with like-minded Allies and improve interoperability between the two countries.
More Details
JEJU, Republic of Korea (Feb. 27, 2023) – Cmdr. Charles Cooper, commanding officer, USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) greets Republic of Korea (ROK) Armed Forces members during a scheduled port visit to Jeju, Republic of Korea, Feb. 27. Rafael Peralta is assigned to Commander, Task Force 71/Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 15, the Navy’s largest forward-deployed DESRON and the U.S. 7th Fleet’s principal surface force. (U.S. Navy photo by Ensign Mahmoud Abusaid)
“I am grateful for the opportunity to further enhance our country’s relationship with the Republic of Korea. We are committed to strengthening our bonds with the people and armed forces here. These relationships, at the Sailor-to-Sailor level, ensure our forces can operate together effectively and maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said, Cmdr. Charles Cooper, commanding officer, USS Rafael Peralta.
The Republic of Korea-U.S. Alliance, including naval cooperation, is strong and has a long history of deterring aggression on the Korean Peninsula. It is one of the most successful alliances in modern history. It has enjoyed unparalleled success in preserving the terms of the Armistice Agreement, promoting democracy, and providing security for the citizens of the Republic of Korea and Northeast Asia.
“Our surface forces serve as a visible symbol of the commitment we have to our longstanding relationship, and this ship visit comes at great time, during the 70th anniversary of our Alliance,” said Capt. Walt Mainor, commander, Task Force 71/Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 15. “The ROK-U.S. Alliance is critical to security and stability in this region and this crew performed in outstanding fashion during this visit in service of our shared maritime values.”
More Details
More Details
Rafael Peralta is operating as part of Commander, Task Force 71, U.S. 7th Fleet’s principal surface force. CTF 71 is responsible for the readiness, tactical and administrative responsibilities for forward-deployed Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers as well as any surface unit conducting independent operations in the region.
7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy's largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with Allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
| 
