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Quotes of the Day:
“Not ignorance, but ignorance of ignorance, is the death of knowledge.”
- Alfred North Whitehead
“Your role as a leader is to bring out the best in others, even when they know more than you.”
- Dr. Wanda Wallace
Characteristics of the American Way of War (1 of 13)
1. Apolitical. Americans are wont to regard war and peace as sharply distinct conditions. The U.S. military has a long history of waging war for the goal of victory, paying scant regard to the consequences of the course of its operations for the character of the peace that will follow. Civilian policymakers have been the ones primarily at fault. In war after war they have tended to neglect the Clausewitzian dictum that war is about, and only about, its political purposes. Characteristically, though certainly not invariably, U.S. military efforts have not been suitably cashed in the coin of political advantage. The traditional American separation of politics and the conduct of war is a lethal weakness when dealing with irregular enemies. Irregular conflict requires a unity of effort by all the instruments of grand strategy, and it must be guided by a unified high command. In that high command, the political authority has to be paramount. As a general rule, there can be no military solution to the challenge posed by irregulars. The principal task of the soldier is to provide the security without which decisive political progress is impossible.
- Colin Gray, 2006
1. Are We Prepared for a North Korean Nuclear Attack?
2. The Taiwan Strait and the ROK–U.S. Alliance
3. Stressing the Alliance: The United States and the ROK in a Conflict with China over Taiwan
4. Statement from President Joe Biden on Japan-ROK Announcement
5. North Korean missiles continue to cause tension
6. Lawmakers furious over misspelt names on Korean war memorial
7. Bring your own gas masks to biochemical weapons drills, North Korea tells citizens
8. Yoon's visit to Japan this month under strong consideration
9. N. Korea warns of 'overwhelming' actions against U.S.-S. Korea military drills
10. 'Troubling' signs of activity at N. Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear testing site IAEA chief
11. Top U.S. general may visit Seoul later this month: Source
12. Opposition Must Reflect on Its Own History with Japan
13. N.K. leader's first child is son: Seoul's spy agency
14. Kim Jong Un could be presenting daughter as successor as he 'seeks to portray family as being like British monarchy'
15. Shooting down our ICBMs would be an act of war: North
16. Yoon to set off on back-to-back Japan, US tours
1. Are We Prepared for a North Korean Nuclear Attack?
I bet you were not expecting this conclusion based on the title:
Conclusion:
The long-term solution to the Korean crisis is internal regime change and reunification under a government that resembles present-day South Korea. Yet, no one knows how long this process could take given the ruthless effectiveness of the DPRK’s totalitarian regime. In the interim, having a robust spectrum of defense capabilities, suitable for a range of scenarios, is critical given the rapidly evolving threat environment.
Just as an aside this is the abstract from my 2004 thesis at the National War College. (the alliance is in better shape today than it was nearly 20 years ago) Change must come from within. I have been thinking about this for some time.
ABSTRACT
This paper has as its thesis five propositions that will be discussed in detail:
- US and ROK policies are in turmoil, are not coherent, and not synchronized. There is no long term approach to the “Korea Question.”
- The ROK-US alliance is eroding rapidly due to actions by both governments and their respective populations.
- North Korea will continue to execute its strategy to protect its vital national interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime (KFR) and any strategy devised must take this into account.
- To achieve a lasting peace on the peninsula, a combined ROK-US strategy that seeks to achieve a mutually agreed upon and acceptable end state must be developed and executed in an orchestrated and cooperative approach.
- Divergent ROK and US policies must be made compatible (e.g., Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine policy - and now the Roh Moo Hyun administration’s Peace and Prosperity policy - versus those in the US who want to focus on Regime Change). Instead of causing regime change externally the ROK and US strategy must be to prepare for a post Kim Family Regime era that arises from internal regime change while at the same time managing the crises as they occur, identifying and exploiting opportunities as they arise, and preparing for the potential conflict that a post-KFR peninsula may trigger.
This paper proposes a long term ROK-US combined security strategy to work toward resolution of the “Korea question”: Comprehensive Engagement with Strength: Partner and Prosper. It establishes a long term end state toward which all efforts will focus. It provides a framework that allows management of the current and future crises while simultaneously allowing the ROK and US to identify opportunities stemming from current and future emerging crises that will support achievement of the long term end state. .
Key Points:
- Ensure that an effective defensive capability remains in place until the “Korea Question” is resolved
- Method for developing a combined strategy
(1) Consultations at the political and military level between the ROKG and USG.
(2) Increased high level contacts.
(3) Establishment of a combined planning group (Korea Strategy Group (KSG)) with permanent NSC level members that meet on a rotating basis in Washington and Seoul.
- Repair the alliance: This will take a concerted effort by the President and senior US leadership. Must come to agreement on the divergent ROK and US policies (sunshine policy versus regime change). They are not mutually exclusive if you do not use the Iraq/Afghanistan models for regime change.
- Proposed mutually acceptable strategic end state: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.
This end state implies regime change. But it must come from within. Most importantly while the US desires regime change it has not prepared for it. Fundamental to the strategy is that near term crises must be managed (and exploited for possible opportunities) while it prepares the foundation for a post Kim Family Regime era.
From: "Beyond the Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for the Korean Peninsula"
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B513_sp6wSItQldmdVZ4cWFudWM/view?usp=sharing&resourcekey=0-KR5LR-AJfuIC8qPAHnPNGw
Are We Prepared for a North Korean Nuclear Attack?
Pyongyang’s recent missile tests demonstrate that Washington must do more to modernize American missile defenses.
by Richard Weitz
The National Interest · by Richard Weitz · March 6, 2023
Since President Joe Biden assumed office in January 2021, North Korea has ended its provocation pause and test-launched more missiles than ever, aiming to perfect its means of attacking the United States and its allies with nuclear weapons. The United States and its partners have strived to parry these threats through enhanced diplomacy, sanctions, deterrence, and a combination of offensive and defensive military capabilities.
Reaching New Heights
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has resumed testing its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which are designed to deliver a nuclear warhead against the United States. On February 18, the DPRK simulated a short-notice launch of its Hwasong-15 ICBM, rehearsing how to initiate nuclear strikes before the United States and its allies fully mobilize their defenses. The missile flew deep into outer space, more than a dozen times higher than the International Space Station. It could have landed anywhere in the United States if launched on a flatter trajectory.
This test is further evidence that the DPRK missile arsenal is increasing in quantity and improving in quality. Since it began its “turbocharged testing spree” last year, the North launched more nuclear-capable missiles than in any previous year. Many of these launches displayed innovative techniques and technologies intended to negate existing U.S. and allied defenses, such as using many missiles concurrently to overwhelm defenders, launching missiles from rail-mobile and submarine-based platforms, and employing hypersonic glide technologies that enable the warhead’s reentry vehicle to maneuver while descending on a target.
At the same time, the DPRK’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has declared his country’s nuclear status to be “irreversible.” Furthermore, the DPRK adopted a new law that may authorize DPRK field commanders to launch preemptive nuclear strikes and automatic retaliatory attacks if Kim is de-capitated. Additional enhancements to the DPRK missile arsenal are coming. In December 2022, Kim called for an “exponential” augmentation in the country’s weaponry, including serial manufacture of tactical nuclear weapons, reconnaissance satellites to assist with long-range missile strikes, and ICBMs intended for rapid counterstrikes against U.S. targets. Having resumed fissile material production, the DPRK might have several hundred nuclear-armed missiles by the end of this decade.
Missile Motives
Pyongyang pursues nuclear-armed missiles for power, prestige, and profits. The missiles aim to deter and, if necessary, defeat the United States and its allies, boost the North’s status and global attention, distract foreign and domestic observers from the DPRK’s economic and political flaws, and enhance the North’s leverage for extracting money and other Western concessions.
In peacetime, the North can leverage its missiles to coerce concessions from the United States and its allies. In a conflict, they provide the DPRK with a shield behind which to wage aggressive regional wars. Following the Russian playbook in Ukraine, Pyongyang’s policymakers might aspire to attack another country and then brandish its nuclear arsenal to deter a U.S. military response. American officials have acknowledged that possibility could weaken Washington’s extended deterrence guarantees to protect its Asian allies like Japan and South Korea. The DPRK wants these countries to doubt U.S. pledges to protect them—inducing them to appease rather than resist the North’s demands.
Fruitlessly Unconstrained
Three decades of negotiations, sanctions, and military countermeasures have failed to induce North Korea to relinquish its nuclear weapons aspirations. Past efforts to convince North Koreans that they would be more secure without nuclear weapons, offering the DPRK security assurances and confidence-building measures, or dangling visions of wealth and international acceptance have all proved insufficiently enticing. The DPRK has dismissed the Biden administration’s offers to resume direct talks despite proposals for “calibrated” diplomatic measures to decrease tensions with the North, dispel misperceptions that the United States threatens the DPRK, and facilitate North Korea’s return to compliance with its nuclear obligations.
The many sanctions adopted by the international community have restricted DPRK imports and exports, contributed to the isolation of the DPRK leadership, and constrained the North’s financial resources, but they have not halted the North’s missile development programs. Beijing and Moscow no longer enforce many existing sanctions and refuse to adopt new ones. Chinese and Russian leaders see DPRK provocations as mischievously helpful for distracting the United States from focusing on Beijing and Moscow.
Spurring Proliferation
The credibility of U.S. pledges to defend South Korea and Japan with all possible means, including U.S. nuclear weapons, was weakening even before the DPRK’s recent provocations. For several years, opinion polls indicate that most South Koreans want to acquire their own nuclear weapons or induce Washington to return U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea. Some Japanese leaders have also more openly discussed their country’s nuclear weapons options in recent years. These views plausibly reflect the belief that the North will never abandon its nuclear weapons while the United States might prove unwilling to use its nuclear forces against North Korea if the DPRK could retaliate with nuclear strikes against U.S. territory.
U.S. officials and analysts have discouraged allies from pursuing nuclear weapons for fears of legitimizing the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal, spurring further nuclear proliferation, promoting regional arms races, and decreasing crisis stability. By seeking nuclear weapons, Japan and South Korea would antagonize the United States and other governments, demean their countries’ lofty international reputations, expose themselves to economic sanctions, and intensify first-strike incentives in a crisis. Instead, the United States has assisted its allies to enhance their missile defenses, damage limitation, and other non-nuclear capabilities.
Furthermore, the Biden administration made bolstering the credibility of U.S. extended security guarantees to these Asian partners one of the highest priorities of the recently completed U.S. Nuclear Posture and Missile Defense Reviews. The first review explicitly warns that the United States will destroy the DPRK regime should it use nuclear weapons: “Any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its Allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime.” The need to reassure allies like South Korea and Japan, which rely on U.S. nuclear weapons for defense against major non-nuclear as well as nuclear attacks, was a major factor leading the Biden administration to reject proposals to adopt a “sole-purpose” or “no-first-use” declaratory doctrine. Such a declaration would have committed the administration to employ nuclear weapons only after an aggressor country had used them against the United States.
Opportunities for Defense
Yet, there is no attractive offensive military option available to the United States. Even with U.S. nuclear forces, a limited preemptive strike may not destroy all DPRK weapons of mass destruction, which are widely dispersed in concealed and hardened facilities. A U.S. first strike could easily precipitate a conventional war on the Korean Peninsula even more destructive than the one seen in Ukraine. The United States and other defenders will attempt to disrupt North Korea’s missiles through cyber attacks, electronic warfare, and other non-kinetic means, but DPRK designers have enhanced their missiles from such vulnerabilities.
The Biden administration’s Missile Defense Review, therefore, insists that “the United States will also continue to stay ahead of North Korean missile threats to the homeland through a comprehensive missile defeat approach, complemented by the credible threat of direct cost imposition through nuclear and non-nuclear means.” These words echo those of the Trump administration’s Missile Defense Review, which affirmed that the United States would “continually improve [U.S.] defensive capabilities as needed to stay ahead of North Korean missile threats if they continue to grow, while also taking steps to preclude an arms race with China or Russia.” Following the most recent DPRK missile test, U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, released a statement affirming that “Protecting the U.S. homeland must be paramount as we develop our 2024 budget, and this includes fully-funding homeland missile defense assets.” Even imperfect missile defenses can help deter and defeat attacks by complicating a potential missile aggressor’s certainty of success. They can also reassure allies that they do not need nuclear weapons or to appease those who are threatening them.
The foundation of the U.S. homeland defense against DPRK missiles is the fleet of Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) in Alaska and California that underpin the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense architecture over North America. These multi-stage solid-fueled rocket boosters are equipped with an unarmed Exo-Atmospheric Kill Vehicle, that collides with a target in outer space, obliterating it with kinetic energy. Presently only a few dozen interceptors protect the continental United States from incoming ICBMs. Unfortunately, the United States rushed these GBIs into service in the early 2000s and has not yet comprehensively renewed them. Instead, they have received only patched upgrades and infrequent tests. At this point, the potential for further upgrading the original GBIs is limited given their decades-old technology, calling into question their efficacy of dealing with the North’s rapidly expanding capabilities.
The United States is, therefore, developing a Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) to provide a more reliable kill vehicle to address the expanding North Korean missile threat. Though an entirely new system built from the ground up, the NGI technology maturation plan aims for an evolutionary rather than revolutionary increase in capabilities. Its improved command, control, communications, and sensor capabilities will increase the system’s reliability. The NGI’s larger payload can carry more than one kill vehicle on each interceptor. Its greater propulsion than the GBI will bring the kill vehicles faster to their interception points, giving warfighters makers more time to make decisions, more opportunities to address complex threats, and more assured means of discriminating between decoys and genuine targets. With planned deployment by 2028, the NGI’s modularity and preplanned upgrades will enable the United States to address subsequent threats more rapidly and confidently.
The Missile Defense Agency, responsible for overseeing the systems requirements and design review for the interceptors, has admirably promoted competition between two contracting teams to accelerate the delivery timeline, drive down costs, and limit technical risk. Meeting this performance metric will require testing the GBI frequently in demanding scenarios, independently and in combination with other elements to enhance performance. For some of these enablers, it might be prudent for the Agency to accept more risks with technology development programs, such as those intended to thwart emerging threats like hypersonic missiles. The planned upgrades to the existing network of sensors, command-and-control nodes, cyber defenses, and other critical support systems will also make the current GBI fleet more effective, pending the eventual deployment of the NGI. Extending the NGI competition through a prototype fly-off would further ensure the fielding of the most capable interceptor.
To construct a multi-layered defense architecture against the DPRK’s ICBM-class targets that protects Hawaii and Guam as well as the Continental United States, the Pentagon will need to integrate the NGIs with regional missile defenses. In the Indo-Pacific region, these include the Aegis-equipped Standard Missile interceptors deployed on ships along with the land-based Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems. Besides protecting U.S. deployed forces and allies, these regional missile defenses can provide important warning and tracking data of ICBMs launched from North Korea toward the United States. The potential effectiveness of such local systems has been evident in Ukraine, where even less advanced regional missile defenses have worked well in blunting the Russian missile onslaught. A comprehensive global defense architecture could also help protect the United States and its allies and forces from missiles launched by other countries.
The long-term solution to the Korean crisis is internal regime change and reunification under a government that resembles present-day South Korea. Yet, no one knows how long this process could take given the ruthless effectiveness of the DPRK’s totalitarian regime. In the interim, having a robust spectrum of defense capabilities, suitable for a range of scenarios, is critical given the rapidly evolving threat environment.
Richard Weitz is the director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
The National Interest · by Richard Weitz · March 6, 2023
2. The Taiwan Strait and the ROK–U.S. Alliance
One of the friction points in the alliance.
Download the 12 page paper in PDF at this link: https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/landing/article.kci?arti_id=ART002937741#none
Conclusion from the paper:
Considerations for the Cooperation between the United States and the Republic of Korea
As discussed above, if the United States and China clash over the Taiwan Strait, the ROK’s policy options will be extremely limited. The ROK has its own security agenda, primarily deterring the aggression of North Korea on the Peninsula. If the situation in the Taiwan Strait develops into a war, then it will hardly be controlled. Thus, it is important for the allies to work closely together to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula. It is also essential to keep track of the bilateral relations between China and the DPRK. If Kim Jong-un decides to start a war on the Peninsula in the midst of a contingency, it will be an all-out war that could possibly develop into a nuclear war.
The bottom line is that both the United States and China do not want simultaneous wars in two different theaters that would greatly change the security landscape of the Indo–Pacific region. Paradoxically, this may lead to a claim that neither the United States nor China wants a war over Taiwan. However, to firmly maintain its values of peace and prosperity in the region followed by its global reputation, the Biden administration has no other options than deterring Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait under a contingency.
This article explained the ROK’s role during the Taiwan Strait Crisis in accordance with three scenarios introduced in the volume, Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan. While the ROK’s policy options seem limited due to its own security agenda on the Peninsula, there may be ways the allies can cooperate under such contingencies. The problem, however, is that such decisions will have to be made promptly in a dynamic situation. While making an effort to maintain the status quo of the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula to maintain peace and prosperity of the Indo–Pacific region, the allies will also have to prepare for contingencies that may occur.
The Taiwan Strait and the ROK–U.S. Alliance
https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/landing/article.kci?arti_id=ART002937741#none
The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
약어 : KJDA
2023, vol.35, no.1, pp.153 - 164
DOI : 10.22883/kjda.2023.35.1.008
발행기관 : 한국국방연구원
연구분야 : 정치외교학
Copyright © 한국국방연구원
이수훈1 , 이중구2
1한국국방연구원
2한국국방연구원
인용한 논문 수 : - 서지 간략 보기
초록
The ROK–U.S. alliance is an Indo–Pacific alliance. The first sentence of the ROK Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo–Pacific Region states “The Republic of Korea is an Indo–Pacific Nation.” The U.S. Indo–Pacific Strategy begins by stating, “The United States is an Indo–Pacific power.” In their first summit meeting, President Yoon and President Biden agreed to develop ROK–U.S. into a global comprehensive strategic alliance. Moreover, the two leaders emphasized that preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is a significant component of security and prosperity for the Indo–Pacific region. If China attacks Taiwan, the United States would probably send forces to protect Taiwan. This research discusses ROK’s possible policy options and the issues that should be considered under the circumstances. Put simply, ROK’s policy options will be limited due to its security situation on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, it would be critical for the allies to discuss and prepare for the contingencies that may appear in the Taiwan Strait.
키워드
U.S.–China competition, the Taiwan Strait, high-intensity conflict scenario, ROK–U.S. alliance, Indo–Pacific region
3. Stressing the Alliance: The United States and the ROK in a Conflict with China over Taiwan
Download the article at this link: https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/landing/article.kci?arti_id=ART002937736#none
Conclusion:
The Indo–Pacific region would look very different in the aftermath of a U.S.– China military conflict over Taiwan. Politics, economics, and security will all work differently in a post-war environment, not least because U.S.–China relations are likely to be permanently altered. The precise nature of that future world will depend on the specifics of the duration, damage, and outcome of a military conflict. The best solution is to ensure that such a war never takes place through diplomacy and effective deterrence. South Korea can play a useful role in that process, including by highlighting the high costs of China attempting to resolve the Taiwan issue by force.
A U.S.–China conflict over Taiwan would be a high-intensity conflict with huge stakes for the United States and for the future U.S. presence in the Indo–Pacific. Given these stakes, and the likelihood that the conflict would be hard-fought with significant casualties and losses on all sides, the United States is likely to find itself in a difficult military position. The United States is highly likely to seek at least some of the kinds of support from the ROK described in this paper. In such circumstances, Washington is likely to be less deferential to ROK interests and political concerns than in a peacetime environment.
Even if the outcome of a U.S.–China conflict is relatively favorable for the United States (given the high costs, it is difficult to speak of anyone “winning” such a conflict), there will be a post–war reckoning for South Korea and for the U.S.–ROK alliance. South Korean behavior and support will be critically examined, and this analysis will take place in a politicized and nationalistic United States. The future of U.S.–ROK relations and the long-term fate of the U.S.–ROK alliance will likely depend on U.S. perceptions about whether South Korea did enough to help when the United States needed that help the most.
Stressing the Alliance: The United States and the ROK in a Conflict with China over Taiwan
https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/landing/article.kci?arti_id=ART002937736
The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
약어 : KJDA
2023, vol.35, no.1, pp.141 - 152
DOI : 10.22883/kjda.2023.35.1.007
발행기관 : 한국국방연구원
연구분야 : 정치외교학
Copyright © 한국국방연구원
Phillip C. Saunders1
1INSS, NDU
인용한 논문 수 : - 서지 간략 보기
초록
United States and Republic of Korea (ROK) leaders have tried to manage their respective approaches to China to avoid creating problems in bilateral relations and in the U.S.–ROK alliance. U.S. policymakers have been careful not to place Seoul in the position of having to choose between Washington and Beijing. However, a U.S. military conflict with China would bring differences in U.S. and ROK interests to the fore and force South Korean leaders to make tough choices in response to U.S. requests for diplomatic, economic, and military support. This paper considers what types of diplomatic and economic support the United States might expect from the ROK in the event of a U.S.–China conflict over Taiwan. It then examines potential U.S. requests for military support from the ROK in three scenarios: 1) a PRC joint firestrike campaign intended to inflict sufficient damage to compel Taiwan to negotiate its political status with Beijing; 2) a PRC joint blockade intended to inflict sufficient damage to Taiwan’s economy to compel negotiations; and 3) a joint island landing campaign intended to seize Taiwan and bring it under PRC control. Each involves a different type of military conflict, a different projected duration, and different military demands.
키워드
U.S.–China competition, Taiwan, ROK–U.S. alliance, military conflict
4. Statement from President Joe Biden on Japan-ROK Announcement
Statement from President Joe Biden on Japan-ROK Announcement | The White House
whitehouse.gov · by The White House · March 6, 2023
Today’s announcements between the Republic of Korea and Japan mark a groundbreaking new chapter of cooperation and partnership between two of the United States’ closest allies. With two historic foreign ministerial statements, President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida are taking a critical step to forge a future for the Korean and Japanese people that is safer, more secure, and more prosperous.
The United States will continue to support the leaders of Japan and the Republic of Korea as they take steps to translate this new understanding into enduring progress. When fully realized, their steps will help us to uphold and advance our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.
As we move ahead, I look forward to continuing to strengthen and enhance the trilateral ties between the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the United States. As today’s announcements remind us, our countries are stronger—and the world is safer and more prosperous—when we stand together.
###
whitehouse.gov · by The White House · March 6, 2023
5. North Korean missiles continue to cause tension
I remember serving with Lt Gen "Fig" Leaf when he was a Colonel and the Deputy J3 of USFK in Korea back in the 1990s.
Few people are making an assessment like this. I think most people put north Korea as number 4 in the 4 list of 4 major threats : China, Russia, Iran and a distant 4th.... north Korea.
He also makes an important point that is often overlooked by us but is never forgotten by the regime in the north: We devoted north Korean infrastructure with air power during the Korean war.
Excerpt:
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan Leaf, who formerly served as deputy commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific and lives in Honolulu, said tensions on the Korean Peninsula are "a case that's far more likely to lead to conflict than U.S.-Russia or U.S.-China, certainly in the short term," and that "the fact that we're putting much more time and certainly money into the China case and the Russia-Ukraine case tells us that there's very little appreciation for how genuinely serious this threat is."
...
Leaf said North Korea analysis is often treated "like debate society or a board game, and they speculate — and even wager — on will the country collapse, will the North pop out a new nuclear weapon, will they show a new missile at parades. … Whatever we've been doing, and especially this speculating about missile tests, is part of focusing on the wrong things."
Leaf notes that the Korean War, which began in 1951 when Soviet-backed North Korea invaded the American-backed South, never officially ended. The bloody war ultimately drew in the Chinese military and killed nearly 5 million people before an armistice agreement brought an end to the fighting, but no formal peace agreement has ever been signed. An enduring standoff — punctuated occasionally by violent skirmishes — has persisted ever since.
"It sounds silly, but we haven't talked with the North Koreans about the war," said Leaf. "They're kind of still pissed about the fact that we destroyed 80% of the structures in their country during the stalemate bombing from '51 to '53. I think that's understandable. And we're kind of pissed off about the atrocities and all the provocations and everything else since — also understandable — (but) we won't get past it if we don't begin a formal process of reconciliation."
North Korean missiles continue to cause tension
Stars and Stripes · by Kevin Knodell · March 6, 2023
North Korea held a parade marking the 75th anniversary of its army’s founding on Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2023, in Pyongyang, where it showcased roughly 15 intercontinental ballistic missiles. (KCNA)
(Tribune News Service) — South Korean and American officials are expecting North Korea to continue missile launches — and potentially a seventh nuclear test — amid a tense regional standoff.
In late February, Kim Yo Jong, the prominent sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said North Korea would turn the Pacific Ocean into a "firing range" in response to joint naval exercises among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan off the Korean Peninsula.
The threat comes after a historic year of missile tests. In 2022, North Korea launched 95 ballistic and other missiles — more than any previous year — even as it faces harsh sanctions.
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan Leaf, who formerly served as deputy commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific and lives in Honolulu, said tensions on the Korean Peninsula are "a case that's far more likely to lead to conflict than U.S.-Russia or U.S.-China, certainly in the short term," and that "the fact that we're putting much more time and certainly money into the China case and the Russia-Ukraine case tells us that there's very little appreciation for how genuinely serious this threat is."
On Feb. 18 North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile — or ICBM — that traveled 615 miles at a "lofted angle" before plunging into the sea just west of Japan. In response, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan held joint naval exercises in the area using ships with anti-missile systems. Once they left, North Korea fired two more ICBMs on Feb. 20, and four days later fired four strategic cruise missiles off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.
Moon Chung-in, who served as an adviser to former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and has participated in talks with North Korean officials, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that he thinks Pyongyang is "very likely to undertake a nuclear test unless there is a major breakthrough for dialogue and negotiation."
North Korea detonated its first nuclear warhead in 2006 and has conducted six tests, most recently in 2017. Throughout much of 2022 there was widespread discussion among policymakers and analysts on when North Korea would conduct its seventh nuclear test, with broad consensus that it would happen sometime before the end of the year. It never came.
But even without a nuclear test, the North's arsenal and capabilities have continued to expand.
"The North needs to undertake the nuclear test either to operationalize the use of its tactical nuclear weapons or to enhance its ICBM/strategic warhead capabilities," Moon said. "I personally believe that Pyongyang is most likely to test tactical nuclear weapons rather than strategic nuclear warheads for ICBM because the former is relatively easy and less threatening to the U.S."
In Hawaii, missile defense has been a hot-button issue since 2018 when a false missile alert amid heightened tension between U.S. and North Korean leaders terrified Hawaii residents. After a North Korean ballistic missile test on Oct. 3 flew an estimated 2,850 miles — soaring over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean — the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency tweeted that “authorities in Japan alerted the public and advised they take shelter. At this time NO threat to Hawai’i is anticipated.”
Moon said North Korea has developed short-range ballistic missiles aimed at South Korea, midrange ballistic missiles at Japan, intermediate-range ballistic missiles aimed at Guam and ICBMs for the U.S. mainland. But he added that when it comes to ICBMs, "the North has not fully shown its mastery of re-entry, accuracy, and stability … thus, I personally believe that Pyongyang cannot pose any immediate threats to the U.S., including Hawaii."
However, South Korean intelligence officials think the North could be planning to test-fire ICBMS on a lower, longer trajectory.
"ICBMs have not been launched at a normal angle so far, but North Korea has all the capabilities and seems to be preparing a timeline to boost the pressure effect on the United States," Yoo Sang-bum, a member of the South Korean parliamentary intelligence committee, told reporters in February after a briefing with South Korea's National Intelligence Service.
Diplomats, analysts and policymakers often struggle to read the North Korean government, which tightly controls the flow of information into and out of one the world's most isolated countries.
Kim Yo Jong has become a source of fascination among academics and journalists. She has become an increasingly visible figure, and there has been speculation that she might wield considerable power in her brother's government. But Moon said while she plays an important role in the regime's messaging, he doesn't think that she actually plays a significant role in policymaking.
"She is now playing the role of mouthpiece of North Korean leadership," said Moon. "She belongs to the Baekdu bloodline, and, thus, she personifies Kim Jong Un. Her remarks carry the weight of Kim Jong Un, but she is not Kim Jong Un. … I think an analogy of 'good cop and bad cop' can be applied here. Kim Jong Un is a good cop, whereas Kim Yo Jong is portrayed as a hardline bad cop."
Leaf said North Korea analysis is often treated "like debate society or a board game, and they speculate — and even wager — on will the country collapse, will the North pop out a new nuclear weapon, will they show a new missile at parades. … Whatever we've been doing, and especially this speculating about missile tests, is part of focusing on the wrong things."
Leaf notes that the Korean War, which began in 1951 when Soviet-backed North Korea invaded the American-backed South, never officially ended. The bloody war ultimately drew in the Chinese military and killed nearly 5 million people before an armistice agreement brought an end to the fighting, but no formal peace agreement has ever been signed. An enduring standoff — punctuated occasionally by violent skirmishes — has persisted ever since.
"It sounds silly, but we haven't talked with the North Koreans about the war," said Leaf. "They're kind of still pissed about the fact that we destroyed 80% of the structures in their country during the stalemate bombing from '51 to '53. I think that's understandable. And we're kind of pissed off about the atrocities and all the provocations and everything else since — also understandable — (but) we won't get past it if we don't begin a formal process of reconciliation."
North Korea has pursued its nuclear program in spite of international sanctions by the United Nations. Almost all trade with North Korea is illegal until Pyongyang agrees to stop tests and give up its nuclear ambitions. Reports have emerged of severe food shortages in the country, and North Korean state media recently reported that Kim Jong Un had vowed to increase grain production.
Those in favor of sanctions argue that while they contribute to the suffering of everyday North Korean citizens, they're necessary to force Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions. But North Korean hackers have managed to steal funds from countries around the world, and the North Korean government has gotten involved in counterfeiting and other black-market enterprises to keep money flowing to Pyongyang's missile program.
"If sanctions were working, they wouldn't be able to expend so much on so many missiles," said Leaf. "That's kind of simple math."
Moon said he thinks North Korean officials are telling the truth when they say launches are a response to American military maneuvers in the Korean Peninsula and argued that "if the U.S. scales down its joint military exercises and training with the ROK forces as well as refrains from deploying its strategic weapons over the Korean Peninsula, there is a good chance that Pyongyang will respond by showing a self-restraining behavior in its military posture and that even it might return to dialogue with the U.S. … Positive reinforcement, rather than negative reinforcement, has always proven to be very effective in dealing with North Korea."
Leaf said the North Korean regime has been a difficult government to work with — it has a history of violating agreements and continues to have one of the worst human rights records of any country. But he argued that policymakers need to emphasize diplomacy and dialogue regardless.
"I've got experience — direct experience — in wars. You have to be aggressive to win," said Leaf. "You got to be even more aggressive to make peace. That may sound contradictory, but we have to make peace a priority. … I don't mean a peaceful situation; I'm saying a formal state of not being at war, an end-of-war agreement. And I don't care how bitter that tastes or how difficult the negotiations are. It has to be done or we're not getting anywhere substantive."
(c)2023 The Honolulu Star-Advertiser
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Stars and Stripes · by Kevin Knodell · March 6, 2023
6. Lawmakers furious over misspelt names on Korean war memorial
Sure mistakes were made. Our poor record keeping, especially with "difficult" names is one cause. But as an aside no taxpayer dollars went to funding the memorial. Congress did not appropriate any money for it.
Excerpts:
At issue are official DoD records used by memorial officials in the new work. Advocates say most of the mistakes carved into the site are still incorrectly listed on online resources from the Departments of Defense and Interior.
The memorial work was paid for through private donations, not public funds. But lawmakers said because of the high-profile nature of the mistakes, finding a way to fix them is in the public’s interest.
Lawmakers furious over misspelt names on Korean war memorial
militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · March 6, 2023
House and Senate lawmakers are demanding answers on how hundreds of service members’ names were misspelled or mixed-up on stone markers at the Korean War Veterans Memorial despite warnings from advocates about the potential for mistakes years ago.
“Errors of this magnitude should not have made it past the initial blueprints, much less carved into stone, and certainly not erected and unveiled to the public,” a bipartisan group of key congressional leaders wrote in a March 3 letter to Defense Department leaders.
“We find these errors deeply concerning and write to seek accountability on how the Remembrance Wall’s glaring flaws went unnoticed until post-construction,” the lawmakers wrote.
In spring 2021, ahead of plans to unveil a new remembrance wall at the memorial featuring the names of more than 36,000 Americans who died in support of the war, members of the Korean War Project warned of numerous discrepancies in the National Archives and Records Administration list officials planned to use to complete the project.
RELATED
Thousands of name errors possible in new Korean War remembrance wall, advocates fear
Data errors mean that there could be hundreds of mistakes included on the planned Wall of Remembrance at the Korean War Veterans Memorial in the nation's capital.
In particular, the advocacy group warned that numerous Native American, Asian-American, Hawaiian, and Latino troops had their names misspelled, transposed or otherwise listed incorrectly.
But memorial officials went ahead with the $22 million project despite the concerns. The stone wall addition to the existing memorial was unveiled in July 2022. Earlier this year, the Korean War Project reported at least 1,015 spelling mistakes among the stone etchings, and the names of 245 individuals who were not killed in the conflict but had their names included anyway.
Congress is now launching a formal investigation into how and why the mistakes happened, and what it might cost to fix them.
Signers of last week’s letter include House Committee on Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala.; Senate Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.; and the top two lawmakers on the House Natural Resources Committee, Chairman Bruce Westerman, R-Ark., and Ranking Member Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz.
“We find it unfortunate that what should have been a touching tribute for bereaved family members and a grateful nation has turned into an embarrassing gaffe,” the group wrote. “We must take the necessary steps to correct the issue, find the communication and research flaws that caused the errors, and ensure such errors are never repeated.”
At issue are official DoD records used by memorial officials in the new work. Advocates say most of the mistakes carved into the site are still incorrectly listed on online resources from the Departments of Defense and Interior.
RELATED
Remains of two soldiers killed in Korean War identified
Two soldiers who were killed during the Korean War have been accounted for, according to the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency.
By Jessica Edwards
The memorial work was paid for through private donations, not public funds. But lawmakers said because of the high-profile nature of the mistakes, finding a way to fix them is in the public’s interest.
The committees involved have requested that defense leaders submit plans for “a revised and accurate list of names for inclusion in the Korean War Veterans Memorial Wall of Remembrance” by March 23. The committees are also considering public hearings on the issue.
Officials with the Korean War Memorial Foundation have said they will work with Park Service staff to make corrections to the remembrance wall if DoD officials determine that their lists were incomplete or inaccurate.
About Leo Shane III
Leo covers Congress, Veterans Affairs and the White House for Military Times. He has covered Washington, D.C. since 2004, focusing on military personnel and veterans policies. His work has earned numerous honors, including a 2009 Polk award, a 2010 National Headliner Award, the IAVA Leadership in Journalism award and the VFW News Media award.
7. Bring your own gas masks to biochemical weapons drills, North Korea tells citizens
But the regime must sustain the perceived external threat to justify the suffering and sacrifice of the Korean people to ensure Kim Jong Un remains in power.
Excerpts:
Privately, residents complained that the whole training was absurd, especially because they were told to provide their own rudimentary protection equipment, cobbled together from cloth masks, goggles or safety glasses, and a small amount of alum, a decontaminant. The source said complete kits could be bought in local markets for about U.S.$1.50 – a rather large sum for North Koreans.
“How can they be preparing for biochemical warfare when none of the equipment is provided by the state, and the people are told to prepare their own protection equipment?” the source said. “Where else can you find this kind of stupid training?”
Every person involved in the training must come prepared with the protective equipment, though families are permitted to bring only one kit that they will share, according to the source.
Bring your own gas masks to biochemical weapons drills, North Korea tells citizens
‘Where else can you find this kind of stupid training?’
By Ji Eun Kim for RFA Korean
2023.03.06
rfa.org
North Korea last week conducted nationwide civil defense drills, forcing residents to march long distances to drill sites, and requiring that they prepare personal emergency kits, including gas masks, to protect themselves against potential U.S.-launched biochemical weapons attacks, sources in the country told Radio Free Asia.
During the five-day drill that ended March 3, residents had to show up every day early morning at a training site as far as 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) away, a source in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
The source said that people had difficulty moving between their villages and the training site on foot, and the 2-hour-long training consisted of entering a mine tunnel and locating an evacuation point.
Privately, residents complained that the whole training was absurd, especially because they were told to provide their own rudimentary protection equipment, cobbled together from cloth masks, goggles or safety glasses, and a small amount of alum, a decontaminant. The source said complete kits could be bought in local markets for about U.S.$1.50 – a rather large sum for North Koreans.
“How can they be preparing for biochemical warfare when none of the equipment is provided by the state, and the people are told to prepare their own protection equipment?” the source said. “Where else can you find this kind of stupid training?”
Every person involved in the training must come prepared with the protective equipment, though families are permitted to bring only one kit that they will share, according to the source.
People who have trouble making ends meet are unhappy that they had to spend money on protective gear that will not work in a real wartime situation, a source from the northwestern province of North Pyongan told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.
“They say that it is to prepare for a biochemical attack by the world's most powerful country, the United States. But they are just claiming that 50 grams of alum, in addition to useless masks and protective glasses, is protection from biochemical warfare,” the second source said. “Residents responded that [the training] is ridiculous.”
The United States is one of 193 states that are party to the Chemical Weapons Convention, signed in 1993 and entered into force in 1997, which outlaws the production, storing or use of chemical weapons.
According to a May 2022 U.S. Department of Defense report, Washington is on track to completely dismantle its stockpile of chemical weapons by the treaty deadline of Sept. 30, 2023.
North Korea, meanwhile, is one of three states that is not party to the convention.
The second source said that many residents complained that they had to walk long distances to and from training every day in the cold, and that the training has no wartime application–the government merely wants to scare residents into being obedient.
“Authorities are spreading fear among residents by talking about U.S. biochemical weapons attacks,” the second source said. ”However the people know that the United States is equipped with the world’s most advanced weaponry, and has no reason to engage [us] in biochemical warfare.”
Translated by Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong. Edited by Malcolm Foster.
rfa.org
8. Yoon's visit to Japan this month under strong consideration
Yoon's visit to Japan this month under strong consideration | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · March 7, 2023
SEOUL, March 7 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol could visit Japan this month for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida following Seoul's decision to compensate wartime forced labor victims without Japanese firms' involvement, the presidential office said Tuesday.
The visit is under strong consideration, the office said, making it the first time in four years detailed discussions are taking place over a South Korean president's visit to Japan.
Kyodo News and other Japanese media outlets have reported Yoon could visit the neighboring country on March 16-17.
The trip would come on the heels of Seoul's decision to compensate Korean victims of Japan's wartime forced labor through a foundation supported by donations from South Korean businesses, not the Japanese firms accused of forced labor.
The announcement of the plan Monday was seen as a show of Seoul's strong commitment to improving badly frayed relations with Japan in the face of growing security threats posed by North Korea and China.
Yoon is also expected to visit Washington next month on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the South Korea-U.S. alliance.
If both visits materialize, they could help bolster Yoon's push to strengthen trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan to tackle regional and global challenges.
The possibility has also been raised that the three countries' leaders could sit down for talks during a Group of Seven summit slated for May in Hiroshima, Japan, if South Korea is invited as a guest.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pose for a photo prior to their talks in New York, in this file photo taken Sept. 21, 2022, as they meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. (Yonhap)
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · March 7, 2023
9. N. Korea warns of 'overwhelming' actions against U.S.-S. Korea military drills
The bad cop is at it again.
(LEAD) N. Korea warns of 'overwhelming' actions against U.S.-S. Korea military drills | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · March 7, 2023
(ATTN: TRIMS headline; UPDATES throughout with more details; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, March 7 (Yonhap) -- Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, warned Tuesday the North is ready to take "overwhelming" actions against military activities by the United States and South Korea, as its rivals are staging joint military drills involving American strategic assets.
Kim also said the North will regard any U.S. attempt to intercept a missile that it will fire as a "clear declaration of war" against the reclusive nation, according to the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"We are always on standby to take appropriate, quick and overwhelming action at any time according to our judgment," Kim said in an English-language statement carried by the state-run media, adding that the North is keeping close tabs on "restless military moves" by Seoul and Washington.
This undated image, captured from footage of North Korea's state-run Korean Central Television, shows Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
South Korea and the U.S. conducted combined air drills Monday, involving at least one U.S. nuclear-capable B-52H strategic bomber, in the wake of Friday's similar drills mobilizing a U.S. B-1B bomber.
The allies also plan to stage the Freedom Shield (FS) exercise, a computer-simulated command post training, from March 13-23 in a bid to bolster deterrence against the North's nuclear and missile threats.
Kim also took issue with a news report about the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. A local newspaper reported Monday that Adm. John Aquilino warned if the North fires an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) toward the Pacific, the U.S. will immediately intercept it.
"It will be regarded as a clear declaration of war against the DPRK, in case such military response as interception takes place against our tests of strategic weapons that are conducted without being detrimental to the security of neighboring countries in the open waters and air which do not belong to the U.S. jurisdiction," she said.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Kim has recently threatened that the North could use the Pacific as its "firing range" in response to joint military drills by the U.S. and the South. Some observers said the North may fire an ICBM on a standard trajectory toward the Pacific Ocean.
In a separate statement, the North's foreign ministry renewed its call for the U.S. to halt its combined military exercises with the South, warning that a "violent physical conflict" could occur on the Korean Peninsula.
"The international community should ... send a clear signal to the U.S. and South Korea to stop the war drills at once," the unnamed chief of the ministry's foreign news section said.
Youtube
https://youtu.be/CoCC0GTHN8M
This file photo, provided by the U.S. Central Command on Nov. 11, 2022, shows a U.S. B-52H strategic bomber. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · March 7, 2023
10. 'Troubling' signs of activity at N. Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear testing site IAEA chief
I think we have been speculating for the last year or so that a 7th nuclear test is imminent.
'Troubling' signs of activity at N. Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear testing site IAEA chief | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 7, 2023
SEOUL, March 7 (Yonhap) -- The chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Tuesday "deeply troubling" signs of activity are continuously being detected at North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear testing site.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), made the remarks amid speculation that the North appears to be preparing for what would be its first nuclear test since 2017.
"The Nuclear Test Site at Punggye-ri remains prepared to support a nuclear test, and we continue to see indications of activity near Adit 3 of the Test Site," he said in a statement to the board of governors. "The reopening of the nuclear test site is deeply troubling."
He noted that the road to the former Adit 4 entrance has been rebuilt, though the agency has not observed any indications of excavation.
The secretive North also appears to be operating the 5-megawatt reactor and the reported centrifuge enrichment facility at the Yongbyon nuclear site, Grossi said.
"There were indications of possible tests of the light water reactor (LWR) cooling system in late September and early October, and changes to the LWR's cooling water outlet channel in October," he added.
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi speaks during a joint interview with South Korean reporters at the Seoul foreign ministry, in this file photo taken Dec. 16, 2022. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 7, 2023
11. Top U.S. general may visit Seoul later this month: Source
I wonder if he will visit Camp Greaves where he commanded the 1-506th Infantry back in the 1990s. I bet he would be surprised to see how it has been transformed into a DMZ education center and quasi museum (my old company HQ is now a display of a typical US military building).
Tuesday
March 7, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Top U.S. general may visit Seoul later this month: Source
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/03/07/national/defense/Joint-Chiefs-of-Staff-General-Mark-A-Milley-CJCS/20230307100549892.html
Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum, second from left, his U.S. and Japanese counterparts pose for a photo after trilateral talks in Washington on Oct. 20, 2022. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]
Korean and U.S. military authorities are in consultations on a possible visit to Seoul by U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Mark A. Milley later this month, an informed source said Tuesday.
If agreed, he is likely to visit the country after the allies conclude their combined Freedom Shield exercise set to take place from next Monday through Feb. 23, according to the source. The general previously visited Seoul in December 2021.
Ahead of a trip to Seoul, Milley is expected to visit Japan on a regional swing likely to highlight the importance of America's trilateral security cooperation with the two core Asian allies.
Milley's term as the JCS chief is set to end this fall.
Yonhap
12. Opposition Must Reflect on Its Own History with Japan
Conclusion:
Cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo is more necessary than ever amid North Korea's growing nuclear threat and Chinese assertiveness in the region. The Minjoo Party must take a good hard look at the 1998 declaration and its own history instead of throwing obstacles in the way of the proposal.
Opposition Must Reflect on Its Own History with Japan
english.chosun.com
March 07, 2023 13:16
Former President Kim Dae-jung visited Japan in 1998. The Japanese government was nervous that he might mention his kidnapping in Tokyo by the South Korean Central Intelligence Agency when he was a political dissident attending a conference in 1973. But in a speech at the Diet, Kim thanked Japan for helping him during his years of persecution and expressed gratitude to his Japanese teacher during Japan's occupation of Korea. "Japan needs true courage to squarely face the past… and South Korea needs to correctly evaluate Japan's changing attitude and find hope in future possibilities," Kim said. Then-Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi in turn pledged to treat Kim like an "older brother" and voiced "deep remorse and heartfelt apology" for Japan's actions during the colonial occupation.
Both leaders vowed to establish "future-oriented" relations and forge a new partnership for the 21st century based on democracy and a free market economy, cooperating in the areas of politics, security, economy and culture. But bilateral relations froze again after South Korea's Supreme Court in 2018 ordered Japanese companies to compensate South Korean victims of forced labor, even though the standing policy since the Roh Moo-hyun administration had been to exclude the issue from discussion about historic wrongs with Japan.
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration on Monday proposed a plan to have South Korean businesses that benefited from reparations under the 1965 normalization treaty with Japan to compensate 15 victims of forced labor. The Japanese government has welcomed the proposal and pledged to uphold the 1998 joint declaration. Japanese businesses will contribute to a separate fund being created to support young people in both countries.
The main opposition Minjoo Party has denounced the plan as "a humiliating agreement that only benefits Japan and hides its responsibility" for the crime. Minjoo Party leader Lee Jae-myung said the proposal is "a historic mistake." But both Kim and Roh were from the same party that is now resorting to denying its own past to take swipes at the president. Former President Moon Jae-in, too, played a part in Roh's decision concluding that it would be difficult to seek compensation from Japan after the two countries signed the 1965 treaty. But as soon as Moon came to power, the Minjoo Party scrapped an agreement the Park Geun-hye administration had signed with Japan to compensate South Korean victims of sex slavery during World War II, and over the next five years, Moon fomented anti-Japanese sentiment for political gain. Yet when it needed Japan’s help with North Korea toward the end of Moon's term, his administration simply denied scrapping the agreement. Moon Hee-sang, a Minjoo politician and speaker of the National Assembly during the Moon Jae-in administration, even made a similar proposal to the one now being floated, namely to form a collaborative fund involving the governments of South Korea and Japan as well as private businesses to compensate victims of forced labor.
Cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo is more necessary than ever amid North Korea's growing nuclear threat and Chinese assertiveness in the region. The Minjoo Party must take a good hard look at the 1998 declaration and its own history instead of throwing obstacles in the way of the proposal.
Read this article in Korean
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
13. N.K. leader's first child is son: Seoul's spy agency
Has this been confirmed by Dennis Rodman who should be used for vetting all first family information. (note sarcasm)
(LEAD) N.K. leader's first child is son: Seoul's spy agency | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · March 7, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with spy agency's notice, details)
SEOUL, March 7 (Yonhap) -- The first child of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is a son, while the gender of his third child has not been confirmed, South Korea's spy agency National Intelligence Service (NIS) was quoted as saying Tuesday.
The NIS also briefed the parliamentary intelligence committee that the North is expected to conduct large-scale military exercises in March and April that could possibly include the firing of a newly developed solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), according to Rep. Yun Kun-young of the main opposition Democratic Party.
"We do not have detailed evidence that his first child is a son. But we are convinced that the first child is certainly a son based on intelligence that has been shared with an external intelligence agency," Rep. Yoo Sang-beom of the ruling People Power Party quoted the NIS as saying.
Yoo said rumors that his son has physical and mental issues have not been confirmed.
Last year, Kim revealed his apparent second child, Ju-ae, a daughter, for the first time in photos showing them attending the test-firing of an ICBM. She has since been shown accompanying leader Kim to various events and meetings, spurring speculation she might be being groomed as his successor.
But Kim's first and third children have never been seen in public.
In a text message sent to reporters, the NIS later said it is in the process of verifying intelligence that Kim's first child is a son.
On Ju-ae, Yoo said she has not enrolled in any official academic organization so far and has been educated at home.
She enjoys hobbies such as horseback riding, swimming and skiing, and Kim is especially satisfied with her horseback riding skills, according to intelligence, Yoo said.
The lawmaker said the NIS has not yet detected orders by the North Korean authorities forcing people named Ju-ae to change their names as reported in some media outlets.
In regard to North Korea's possible large-scale military exercises, Yun said there are chances the North may deploy reconnaissance satellites in April in line with Kim's instruction.
The lawmaker said the possibility of Pyongyang test launching an ICBM to fly at a normal trajectory cannot be ruled out considering technological demand and recent warnings issued by Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's sister.
On Tuesday, she warned the North is ready to take "overwhelming" actions against military activities by the Washington and Seoul, as its rivals are staging joint military drills involving American strategic assets.
The NIS also reported the North is believed to be short of about 800,000 tons of rice annually, but the number of people starved to death is not at a level that poses a threat to the regime, according to the lawmakers.
National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun attends a parliamentary intelligence committee meeting in Seoul on March 7, 2023. (Pool photo)
nyway@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · March 7, 2023
14. Kim Jong Un could be presenting daughter as successor as he 'seeks to portray family as being like British monarchy'
Maybe Kim Jong un has been watching too much of the BBC and BRITBOX.
And of course it could be that Kim likes to keep us guessing and see what reactions he can generate in the outside world by his antics... er...I mean reactions.
Kim Jong Un could be presenting daughter as successor as he 'seeks to portray family as being like British monarchy'
Though many will question whether a patriarchal country such as North Korea can have a female leader, Jean H Lee, a journalist who reported from inside the country for nine years, points out that there are several women already in high office in the secretive state.
Tom Gillespie
News reporter @TomGillespie1
Monday 6 March 2023 13:08, UK
Sky News
Kim Jong Un may be appearing with his daughter in public to present her as a potential successor as he seeks to portray his family as being a dynasty like the British Royal Family, an expert on the secretive country has said.
Jean H Lee, who set up the Associated Press news agency's first bureau in North Korea, made the remarks weeks after the dictator made his sixth public appearance with his daughter Kim Ju Ae.
The girl is believed to be around 10-years-old and Ms Lee said there has been a "theme" to the events she has been attending as they tend to involve "weapons and missiles".
Ms Lee, who reported from inside North Korea from 2008 to 2017, said the most striking images of Kim Ju Ae are from when she attended a military banquet to mark the 75th anniversary of the country's army in February.
"When you look at these pictures she's front and centre. She is there. It's like this tableau of father, mother, daughter. And I think what people noticed, of course, first and foremost was, 'oh my gosh, he's presenting his daughter'. What does that mean?", she told the latest episode of the Sky News Daily podcast.
Image: Kim Jong Un talks with his daughter Kim Ju Ae at the banquet to mark the army's 75th anniversary
Ms Lee said it reminded her of when the dictator's grandfather presented his wife and young son, Kim Jong Un's father Kim Jong Il, at the military parade on the same day 75 years earlier.
Though many will question whether it is possible for a patriarchal country such as North Korea to have a female leader, Ms Lee highlights there are a number of women working in high office in the secretive country.
North Korea's foreign minister Choe Son Hui, is a woman and Mr Kim's sister Kim Yo Jong is one of his top foreign policy officials.
"We've had female rulers in societies at times where many women had no rights. Queen Victoria, for example," Ms Lee added.
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"But I do think one thing about North Korea that's very interesting is that women do take on leadership roles. It's a communist or it's a socialist country."
Image: Mr Kim with his daughter Kim Ju Ae and his wife Ri Sol Ju at the banquet
Kim may want to portray his family as 'being like the British royals'
On a potential future role for Kim Ju Ae, Ms Lee said: "She's very young and we know so little about what's happening inside North Korea to say that this is a succession process, but I do think that we know that it's a cultivation of the Kim family, monarchy and dynasty."
"I'm sure there is in some part a strategy of trying to portray themselves, kind of like the Royal Family in the United Kingdom."
Image: People lay flowers in front of the statues of former North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in the North Korean capital
'Lots of reasons to be nervous'
Meanwhile, James Fretwell, an analyst at the North Korean news monitoring service NK News, told the Sky News Daily podcast there are "lots of good reasons to be nervous" as Mr Kim's military carries out weapons tests.
Mr Fretwell said the "main reason" North Korea wants nuclear weapons is to prevent the United States or South Korea from thinking they can attack and get rid of Kim Jong Un's regime.
However, he said North Korea may also want to use nuclear weapons to build up its military to invade South Korea and unify the peninsula.
"Now, that might seem like a crazy idea, but when we look at what capabilities North Korea is focusing on now it seems it has conducted a lot of long-range missile tests.
"It also seems to be moving towards tactical nuclear weapons."
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1:36
Kim Jong Un's daughter appears at parade
What is it like living and working in North Korea?
Ms Lee, who is Korean-American and now works as a Korean expert at the Wilson Institute in Washington, stressed that the people in North Korea are "not as robotic as they may seem" and many are the "most opinionated people I know".
"Some are super funny, an incredible sense of humour, really affectionate. These are the kinds of relationships I had."
Mr Fretwell said he looks a lot at North Korean state media, reads all of their newspapers and watches all of their television.
"Even though it is propaganda, you can get some useful insights from that TV footage. It's not the best way of trying to report on the country. And North Korea is extremely secret by its very nature."
Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts
Sky News
15. Shooting down our ICBMs would be an act of war: North
Wouldn't firing an ICBM at the US be THE act of war? Doesn't Kim have any operational law personnel on his staff?
I think we are fortunate that we have governments in Seoul and Washington who will not back down in the face of this kind of rhetoric. It is normal. It has been happening for 7 decades. But every time the regime acts out I feel like many people seem to believe that somehow this time it is different or thay act like this is the first time hearing this.
Remember that the counter to provocation is ensuring Kim Jong Un does not achieve the effects he desires from the provocation. And that includes exposing the intent of the provocation and and the strategy behind it.
Tuesday
March 7, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Shooting down our ICBMs would be an act of war: North
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/03/07/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-Kim-Yojong/20230307153954377.html
A U.S. B-52 Stratofortress long-range bomber flies at the front of a formation with South Korean KF-15 Slam Eagle strike fighters (above) and F-16K Fighting Falcon fighters (below) in the skies above the West Sea on Monday. [DEFENSE MINISTRY]
The sister of North Korea’s leader said that any move by the United States to intercept the regime’s missiles would be considered “a declaration of war,” Pyongyang’s state media reported Tuesday.
The statement by Kim Yo-jong referred to a South Korean media report that said the United States plans to shoot down Pyongyang’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) if they are launched into the Pacific Ocean.
While the North has previously launched missiles over Japan — most recently in October last year — the regime typically fires them on lofted trajectories so they avoid neighboring countries.
The majority of missiles fired by North Korea in the past year have landed in the East Sea.
But in her statement, Kim said, “The Pacific Ocean does not belong to the dominion of the United States or Japan,” making it clear that the North sees missile launches into international waters farther away as fair game.
Last month, Kim also issued a statement saying that the frequency of North Korean launches into the Pacific will depend on the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula.
Kim warned that the regime would watch upcoming large-scale joint exercises by South Korea and the United States and could choose to respond forcefully.
“We keep our eye on the restless military moves by the U.S. forces and the South Korean puppet military and are always on standby to take appropriate, quick and overwhelming action at any time according to our judgment,” she said.
South Korea and the United States are gearing up to conduct large-scale joint military exercises later this month.
The allies started their four-day crisis management training exercise on Monday, which is to be followed by the 11-day Freedom Shield main command post exercise and the concurrent Warrior Shield field training exercise beginning March 13.
Freedom Shield is a computer-simulated training exercise aimed at strengthening the allied defense and response capabilities, while Warrior Shield will entail amphibious landing drills.
The allies also conducted a joint air force drill on Monday, which South Korea's Defense Ministry called a show of force against the North’s nuclear and missile threats.
The Defense Ministry said that a U.S. B-52 Stratofortress long-range bomber joined South Korean F-16K Fighting Falcon fighters and KF-15 Slam Eagle strike fighters for the drill, which took place in the skies above the Korean Peninsula.
The B-52, capable of flying at high altitudes at subsonic speeds and dropping nuclear weapons, is considered the backbone of the U.S. bomber plane force.
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry called the flyover of the US B-52 bomber “a reckless military provocation” that pushes tensions on the peninsula “deeper into the bottomless quagmire” in a separate statement carried by the KCNA Tuesday.
In the statement, an unnamed chief of the ministry’s foreign news office said the regime could make “no guarantee that there will be no violent physical conflict” if joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises continue.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
16. Yoon to set off on back-to-back Japan, US tours
Yoon to set off on back-to-back Japan, US tours
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · March 7, 2023
President Yoon Suk Yeol is set to meet with his Japanese and US counterparts as early as next week and next month, respectively, as the South Korean leader seeks stronger three-way ties he says are required to counter global challenges, the biggest of which involves containing North Korea.
For a summit with Japan, Yoon’s office has yet to reveal the exact date, saying it was “closely looking at options.” Japanese news agency Kyodo News said the meeting will take place Thursday next week for two days, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Such a summit between the two leaders, which last took place in 2011, would shift Seoul’s focus from seeing Tokyo as a neighbor with which to clear historical disputes to a “partner to work with.” Yoon publicly embraced Japan in a key public address a week before rolling out a compromise deal Monday, aiming to end a dispute over offering restitution to Koreans forced to work for Japanese companies during Japan’s 1910-45 rule of the peninsula.
Under the arrangement, Korean companies that benefited from a 1965 bilateral agreement normalizing Seoul-Tokyo ties will compensate the victims while Japanese firms held liable for damages by a 2018 Korean court decision potentially pay into a separate scholarship fund meant to bolster ties. Embracing the deal, Tokyo reaffirmed an apology for colonial rule made in the 1998 Korea-Japan declaration, signed by then-Korean President Kim Dae-jung and former Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.
Yoon reiterated Tuesday that the compromise was for the “good of both countries,” though critics say it leaves out a formal, specific apology for forced labor and direct compensation by the Japanese. But Japan is “no more an aggressor but a partner” sharing universal values with Korea as they find cooperation in security and economy, Yoon stressed. Japan is part of a three-way US-led military coalition on North Korea’s denuclearization and maintains key trade ties with South Korea.
Yoon added that closer Seoul-Tokyo ties are crucial to the world, since they help protect “freedom, peace and prosperity.” The policy goals have guided the Yoon government since last December, when it revealed its signature foreign policy, the Indo-Pacific strategy. It involves expanding Korea’s outside ties alongside the US.
To facilitate that, Yoon is eyeing an April summit with US President Joe Biden in Washington, and a trilateral May gathering with Yoon’s Japanese counterpart on the sidelines of a Group of Seven meeting in Hiroshima, Japan. Yoon’s national security adviser Kim Sung-han is in Washington for a five-day trip that started Sunday to iron out any last-minute details.
Kim has yet to brief the key topics to discuss, but disarming North Korea and projecting South Korea’s global influence to match its elevated status alongside the US are considered top priorities. Efforts to address the latest US rules on foreign-made electric vehicles and chips are underway as well, Yoon’s officials say. US allies say the rules are discriminatory because foreign EV makers not eligible for US subsidies and chipmakers could forfeit profits after receiving subsidies.
By Choi Si-young (siyoungchoi@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · March 7, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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