Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Strategic competition is a persistent and long-term struggle that occurs between two or more adversaries seeking to pursue incompatible interests without necessarily engaging in armed conflict with each other."

- Joint Concept for Competing, 10 February 2023

“To accept tragedy means to know that things often go wrong, and often have unintended consequences. Young veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq know this better than much older policy types in Washington, who have never worn a uniform, or reported on a war. That is why the most emotionally sophisticated students I have ever encountered as a teacher have been at military war colleges."

- Robert D. Kaplan, The Tragic Mind – Fear, Fate, and the Burden of Power

"I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.

- Mark Twain

1. How U.S. friends and foes have responded to leaked Pentagon documents

2. N. Korea unresponsive to regular contact via inter-Korean liaison, military hotlines for 5th day

3. S. Korea voices 'strong' regret over N. Korea's refusal to answer daily calls

4. An interview with North Korea expert Dr. Chan Young Bang

5. Spies Do Not Distinguish Between Friend and Foe

6. ‘Facts about allegation of U.S. surveillance should be identified,’ S. Korean presidential office says

7. Opinion | South Korea’s Unhealthy Obsession With Japan

8. Cars Overtake Chips as Korea's Top Export

9. Amid Furor, Seoul Downplays Leaked Pentagon Documents

10. North can hit all of South, U.S. bases in Japan: Experts

11. South Korea to Probe Circumstances Around Reported Leak of Classified U.S. Documents

12. Indicting ex-presidents: It’s par for the course in South Korea

13. ‘Secret rooms’ in North Korean restaurants create a space to conduct illicit affairs

1. How U.S. friends and foes have responded to leaked Pentagon documents

I concur.

Excerpt:

“Frankly, the Koreans have played it with grace and subtlety,” said one senior official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

How U.S. friends and foes have responded to leaked Pentagon documents

By Miriam Berger and Dan Lamothe

April 10, 2023 at 6:03 p.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Miriam Berger · April 10, 2023

Washington’s appetite for intelligence on friends and adversaries alike is well known to foreign governments — and should they ever forget, periodic leaks of classified information serve to remind them.

But as always in espionage, the devil is in the details, an extraordinary range of which were revealed in a recent leak of apparent highly classified documents revealing the extent of U.S. spying. U.S. officials are scrambling to respond as governments take stock of the damage.

The Defense Department is working “around-the-clock” to determine the scope and scale of any leaked material, the impact its spread could have and how to mitigate future leaks, Chris Meagher, a Pentagon spokesman, said Monday.

In conversations with counterparts, defense officials and diplomats are on damage control duty. State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said Monday that U.S. officials “are engaging with allies and partners at high levels over this including to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence.”

In such instances in the past — including the WikiLeaks revelation a decade ago that Washington spied on the president of Brazil — foreign governments have expressed anger or irritation but continued working with Washington.

With the source and full extent of the recent leak still unknown, and the leaked information still to be verified, the ramifications could continue to develop.

The government of South Korea, a key U.S. ally, said over the weekend that it would discuss in a summit later this month “issues raised” by leaked memos detailing apparent U.S. spying on top officials in Seoul.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already navigating a growing rift with the Biden administration, issued a statement Sunday describing media reports about a memo detailing potential domestic meddling on the part of the Mossad intelligence agency as “mendacious and without any foundation whatsoever.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday called the revelations of U.S. espionage on other countries unsurprising. When asked about allegations of Russian involvement in the leaks, he said there was no need to comment, citing a “tendency to blame everything on Russia.”

What to know about the Pentagon leak

Dozens of highly classified U.S. military and intelligence documents have been leaked online, revealing a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine, as well as analysis and sensitive information on Russia and other countries — from classified sources. The leak has far-reaching implications for the United States and its allies. Here’s what we know.

Where did they come from?

The top-secret documents appear to be — at least partly — from the Pentagon. Many seem to have been prepared for Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other senior military officials, though hundreds of others may have had access. The files include reports from across the U.S. intelligence community, including from the CIA, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, FISA court warrants and more.

What do the leaked documents reveal about Ukraine?

The documents contain assessments of the progress of war in Ukraine, including precise battlefield tactical information. They reveal profound concerns about Ukraine’s readiness to withstand a Russian offensive, but also show the extent to which the United States has infiltrated the Russian military, allowing the administration to warn Ukraine about upcoming attacks.

What else do they show?

The files include summaries of human intelligence on high-level conversations between world leaders, as well as information about advanced satellite technology the United States uses to spy. They also include intelligence on both allies and adversaries, including Iran and North Korea, as well as Britain, Canada, South Korea and Israel.

Who leaked the documents?

We don’t know who leaked the documents or why, but the Justice Department has said it is investigating the leak. The documents initially appeared in early March on a now-shuttered Discord server; then several of the images were posted on Twitter. Some versions appear later to have been digitally manipulated to inflate Russian military strength.

What happens now?

In addition to the Justice Department investigation, officials in several countries said they were assessing the damage from the leaks.

1/6

End of carousel

The Justice Department said Friday that it was opening an investigation into the dozens of images leaked online, and later obtained by The Washington Post and other news outlets, appearing to show battlefield updates and assessments of Ukraine’s capabilities and worldwide intelligence briefings on a host of countries, along with other intelligence. The authenticity of these documents has not been confirmed.

Meagher on Monday characterized the leak as “photos of purported documents,” and said that he would not go into its validity.

Much of the leaked trove concerns Russia’s war in Ukraine, and details the extent of Washington’s apparent infiltration of Moscow’s military apparatus and foreknowledge of Russian plans.

Russia’s spy services likely face a scramble to figure out which networks or human sources have been compromised. “It’s basically leaky plumbing,” said Glenn Gerstell, former general counsel at the National Security Agency. “You want to find out where the hole is and plug it immediately.”

That will create more challenges for the NSA and other spy agencies whose mission is to obtain intelligence on foreign adversaries, he said. “And it gets more difficult if instead of plugging one particular leak, they decide to replace a big part of the entire plumbing system.”

Much of the information is tactical, and so its value diminishes over time, former intelligence officials noted. But that doesn’t mean there is no damage to sources and methods, especially in the near term, they said. And in the meantime, Russia can take advantage of what it learns to adjust its war plans.

The revelations, if verified, could endanger Ukraine’s access to intelligence, as both sides prepare for spring offenses. Publicly, however, Ukraine has cast doubt on the document’s authenticity.

“The aim of secret data ‘leaks’ is obvious: divert attention, cast doubts & mutual suspicions, sow discord,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Saturday on Twitter.

The leaks have so far elicited little or no public response from many European and NATO countries, perhaps in part because of the Easter holiday. Turkey — the subject of a memo among the leaked documents detailing efforts by the Wagner mercenary group to purchase arms from the NATO member — has not issued a public comment on the matter.

Canada’s national cryptologic agency, the Communications Security Establishment, said in a statement Monday that as a matter of policy, it would not comment, including on a document that appeared to describe the breach of a Canadian pipeline by a pro-Russian hacker group.

Canada is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network, which also includes the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. “We will continue to work hand in hand” with Five Eyes, Canadian Public Safety spokesperson Audrey Champoux said Monday, Reuters reported.

France on Saturday also declined to comment on the ramifications of the documents, though it denied information contained in a leaked memo saying that French soldiers were in Ukraine, the Guardian reported.

In a statement released Monday, Bulgaria’s Defense Ministry denied that it had held talks on donating MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, as one of the documents indicated.

The document of particular concern in Israel, labeled top secret, said that in February senior leaders of the Mossad external spy agency “advocated for Mossad officials and Israeli citizens to protest the new Israeli Government’s proposed judicial reforms, including several explicit calls to action that decried the Israeli Government, according to signals intelligence.”

The Mossad is forbidden from intervening in domestic matters and any meddling would be a major revelation.

“The Mossad and its serving senior personnel have not engaged in the issue of the demonstrations at all and are dedicated to the value of service to the state that has guided the Mossad since its founding,” Netanyahu said Sunday in a statement released in the name of the Mossad — a rare move.

Israeli media outlets reported that Netanyahu met Monday with Mossad Director David Barnea, who told the prime minister that the memo was based on a U.S. misinterpretation.

A South Korean presidential official, speaking to reporters Sunday, declined to confirm or deny any details suggesting U.S. spying on South Korea, Reuters reported. An undated document included in the leak detailed apparent internal discussions between top South Korean officials about U.S. pressure on Seoul to help supply Ukraine with weapons. South Korean law bars the government from providing weapons to countries at war.

Korean officials expressed concern, according to the unverified CIA document, that any weapons sold to the United States might be sent to Ukraine.

The Korean presidential official, speaking on the condition of anonymity per official protocol, told reporters that Seoul’s policies remained unchanged. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and President Biden are scheduled to meet April 26.

As Washington continues to search for the source of the leak, U.S. officials said the incident was not likely to have significant repercussions in its relationship with Seoul.

“Frankly, the Koreans have played it with grace and subtlety,” said one senior official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

Amanda Coletta in Toronto, Zeynep Karatas in Istanbul, Emily Rauhala in Brussels, and John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima in Washington contributed to this report.

The Washington Post · by Miriam Berger · April 10, 2023

2. N. Korea unresponsive to regular contact via inter-Korean liaison, military hotlines for 5th day

Are.we going to do this every day? Let's just stop calling and wait for them to initiate.

(LEAD) N. Korea unresponsive to regular contact via inter-Korean liaison, military hotlines for 5th day | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2023

(ATTN: RECASTS headline; UPDATES with latest info, minor edits throughout)

SEOUL, April 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea remained unresponsive to daily routine calls with South Korea through the inter-Korean liaison and military communication channels for the fifth straight day Tuesday, according to the Seoul government.

The North had not been responsive to both opening and closing routine calls from the South via the liaison line as of 5 p.m., the unification ministry said.

North Korea also did not respond to the South's regular calls via the militaries' East and West seas communication lines, according to the defense ministry.

Earlier in the day, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se issued a rare statement expressing "strong regret" over the North's "unilateral and irresponsible" move. The ministry said it is "putting weight" on the possibility of Pyongyang's "unilateral" suspension of the liaison communication channel.

This file photo, provided by the unification ministry, shows a South Korean liaison officer talking to his North Korean counterpart at the Seoul bureau of their joint liaison office on Oct. 4, 2021. After a two-month suspension, the two Koreas restored cross-border communication lines that Pyongyang suspended in protest of an annual combined military exercise of South Korea and the United States. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Friday's cutoff marked the first time the daily phone calls have gone unanswered since last October, when the North failed to respond to an opening call via the joint liaison hotline. Daily communications between the Koreas resumed later in the afternoon after the hourslong suspension.

The two Koreas have made two phone calls daily, at 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., as part of liaison communication to alleviate tensions on the peninsula.

In June 2020, the North cut off the inter-Korean hotline in protest of Seoul activists' leaflet campaigns critical of Pyongyang. The communication lines were restored in July the following year but were severed again for about two months a few weeks later in apparent protest against Seoul-Washington's military exercises.

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2023

3. S. Korea voices 'strong' regret over N. Korea's refusal to answer daily calls

But this is a good description of north Korea:

"The government expresses strong regret over the North's unilateral and irresponsible attitude. We strongly warn that this will only lead the North to isolate itself and face more difficult situations," Kwon said in a statement.

(LEAD) S. Korea voices 'strong' regret over N. Korea's refusal to answer daily calls | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · April 11, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; CHANGES photo)

By Kim Soo-yeon and Yi Wonju

SEOUL, April 11 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification minister voiced "strong" regret Tuesday over North Korea's refusal to answer daily calls via an inter-Korean liaison line and a military hotline, calling it a "unilateral and irresponsible" move.

Minister Kwon Young-se's message came as the North did not respond to regular phone calls through such inter-Korean communication channels for the fifth straight day without specifying any reasons.

"The government expresses strong regret over the North's unilateral and irresponsible attitude. We strongly warn that this will only lead the North to isolate itself and face more difficult situations," Kwon said in a statement.

The North's unresponsiveness raised speculation that the secretive regime may have intentionally cut off the liaison channel to protest joint military drills between South Korea and the United States or the release by the South of a report on the North's human rights violations.

The government issued a rare statement on the North in the name of the unification minister for the first time in about 10 years amid heightened tensions sparked by the North's weapons tests.

Presiding over a key party meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for more "practical and offensive" use of war deterrence, according to Pyongyang's state media.

"North Korea's move to raise tensions is not good for the Korean Peninsula as well as the North itself. We hope the North Korean leader Kim will make a wise decision," Kwon said.

This photo, taken April 11, 2023, shows Unification Minister Kwon Young-se speaking to reporters in Seoul about the government's statement on North Korea's refusal to answer daily phone calls with South Korea and its unauthorized use of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. (Yonhap)

The minister also "strongly" condemned the North's repeated unauthorized use of South Korean assets left behind at the Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North.

The North's state media have carried photos and aired video footage featuring what appears to be South Korean commuter buses operating in Pyongyang and Kaesong. The buses are presumed to be used to transport North Korean workers before the industrial complex was closed down in 2016.

Kwon said the North should be held accountable for its "unlawful" activity, as it has violated related inter-Korean agreements on the operation of the factory zone.

"The government will take all available measures, including legal actions, to make the North take responsibility for its unlawful activity, and closely cooperate with the international community," he said.

Kwon acknowledged "considerable limitations" in taking legal steps against the North but said the unification ministry is closely reviewing possible measures.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · April 11, 2023

4. An interview with North Korea expert Dr. Chan Young Bang

Some interesting analysis. I think his views on information and instability are useful. Not so sure about his prescription for denuclearization.

An interview with North Korea expert Dr. Chan Young Bang

Clamping down on the spread of information, punishing citizens consuming South Korean cultural products and so on, shows how desperate the regime actually is, Dr. Bang told Daily NK

By English Editor - 2023.04.11 3:48pm

dailynk.com

An image of now deceased President Kim Il Sung created by thousands of participants in the Arirang Mass Games. (David Stanley, Flickr, Creative Commons)

Daily NK recently conducted an email-based interview with Dr. Chan Young Bang, who is a former economic advisor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first president of Kazakhstan, and the Founder and President of KIMEP University and Principal Investigator at the DPRK Strategic Research Center. The interview focused on a range of issues confronting North Korea, including food shortages, trade with China, and prospects for economic reform. Dr. Bang’s latest book, Transition beyond denuclearization – A bold challenge for Kim Jong Un, was published by Palgrave Mcmillian in 2020.

Daily NK (DNK): North Korea is facing a myriad of challenges in 2023, including what some experts say is the worst food insecurity since the Arduous March and continued international sanctions that make it difficult to conduct imports of necessary goods. Starting several years ago, the country began setting up state-run food shops to improve the supply of food to ordinary people. Do you think a state-led solution, as opposed to a market-led solution, is the best way to resolve the food shortages?

Dr. Bang: The DPRK is currently facing serious shortages of food supplies, the worst since the Arduous March of the 1990s. To feed its population, according to statistics from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and South Korea’s Rural Development Administration, the country needs at least 5.95 million tons of grain each year. In 2022, estimates show that North Korea produced 4.51 million tons, creating a shortage of nearly 1.5 million tons. In other words, North Korea has enough grain to last nine months, not a day more.

In an attempt to address the food shortages, Kim Jong-un has set up state-run food shops, reflecting a false belief that the shortages are a consequence of a distribution issue, when the main issue resides in the low productivity of the agricultural sector for the past decade. Changing the way food is distributed around the country, from farmers to state-run food shops in Pyongyang, is merely an illusion. The regime is trying to delude and hide the fact that production is the main issue at hand.

There are four compelling reasons for this chronic low productivity. First, the country lacks the machinery and fertilizers necessary for farming; sanctions have depleted the foreign currency needed to import such necessities. Second, the state owns all the means of production and the inefficiency of state management suppresses productivity. Third, there are no material incentives for state-employed producers, only ideological coercion. Fourth, recent weather conditions – floods and storms – have severely damaged the agricultural sector.

The food shortages the DPRK is facing are a recurrent concern for the regime. At the 9th Congress of the Union of Agricultural Workers of Korea in January 2023, Kim Jong-un demanded that the farmers stop selling on the black market and accused them of showing “anti-socialist” tendencies.

A good example of poor responses of the regime to this critical issue concerns the production of rice. The state pays only one-third of the market price for rice, which pushes producers to sell their products in local markets, and a bare minimum to the state.

The situation has led to a trend witnessed in all socialist countries prior to their reforming or collapsing. In socialist Vietnam, private producers working 5% of the arable land area provided up to 75% of the food consumed in the country. In the DPRK, there has been a similar pattern with the proliferation of Sotoji, illegally operated private farms located in mountainous areas, which in 2007 produced 750,000 tons of grain, representing 20% of the total production.

Portraits of KIm Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. (Michael Day, Flickr, Creative Commons)

These issues illustrate the fundamental flaws of socialism, but the DPRK’s food shortage is being compounded by further issues. The country is under strict UN Security Council sanctions because of its nuclear weapons programme, preventing trade and forcing the regime to deplete its foreign currency reserves, thus hindering the import of food, agricultural products and fuel.

The chronic food shortages faced by the DPRK in the past decade are the result of a productivity issue, not an issue of distribution, an inherent defect of the socialist system. In order to solve the problem, the regime has no choice but to transform into a market socialist economy, allowing for privatization in the agricultural sector. The present system is faulty, inefficient and must be drastically changed.

DNK: The compound effects of the 2017 UNSC sanctions, the DPRK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian war in Ukraine have crippled the North Korean economy and precipitated a state of uncertainty for the regime. According to data from China Customs, North Korea has increased its trade with China over the past month. What would be the consequences of China engaging in further illicit trade with the DPRK?

Dr. Bang: The UNSC sanctions of 2017 have had a severe effect on DPRK exports of strategic items, including important commodities and products such as coal, iron, seafood, textiles and human resources. Under the sanctions, these items, all dependent on North Korean state enterprises, were banned from exportation, putting the country in a dire economic situation. This was exacerbated following the complete border shutdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

For the DPRK, illicit trade provides desperately needed revenue. As soon as the border reopens, it is likely that Pyongyang will try to extend illicit trade with companies in China, its main trading partner. However, there is no solid evidence that the Chinese central government is inciting illegal trading activities with the DPRK.

One of President Xi Jinping’s main objectives is to become a respected world leader and turn China into a preeminent superpower. Any illicit trade will lead to significant sanctions. Therefore, supporting illicit trade with North Korea has a prohibitively high cost for Beijing, considering that the U.S. is undertaking an economic containment policy against it. Such an action from the Chinese side would constitute a blatant breach of UNSC sanctions and serve as a pretext for the U.S. to galvanize its containment policy.

Additionally, it is difficult for the DPRK to hide its illegal trade because the U.S., South Korea, Japan and others are able to constantly surveil and monitor the waters around the country, negating the effectiveness of sailing ships under flags of other countries to hide their identity. The cost of illegal trade has skyrocketed for the DPRK. Smuggling with entrepreneurial merchants will not have a significant impact on North Korea’s economic well-being.

North Korea may see hope in the re-opening of its border, but there is no light at the end of the tunnel for Kim’s regime.

DNK: Some argue that South Korea’s economic development experience provides a roadmap for North Korea’s economic development. Based on your experience, do you believe South Korea’s experience is an apt guide for North Korean economic development? If unification, or at least a federal system were to be implemented between the two Koreas, would a South Korean-led economic development program be best suited for implementation in North Korea?

Dr. Bang: History reveals that, without exception, all former socialist countries which have achieved economic development have had to introduce market-oriented economic reforms. There are three different models of economic change which could be applied to the DPRK.

The first model is that which was followed by countries of the former Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union, such as Kazakhstan. These countries transformed into fully-fledged market economies and completely abandoned the socialist ideology. In this model, privatization on a large scale occurs and the mechanisms of the central planning and rationing system are dismantled. Without exception, countries which adopted this model have been able to break away from totalitarianism. Some have even embraced fully-fledged democracy.

A second model which the DPRK can adopt is that practiced by China and Vietnam: market socialism. While political control remains in the hands of the communist party, the class-struggle ideology has been abandoned, and central planning and the rationing system were dismantled. These countries partially privatized the means of production and abandoned totalitarianism in favor of authoritarianism, radically changing their economies and seeding rapid growth.

A statue of Kim Il Sung in North Korea. (Roman Harak, Creative Commons, Flickr)

The third model – unification with another state – has only been followed by one socialist country: the German Democratic Republic (or East Germany). When it comes to the DPRK, if such a step were to be taken, it would not result in a smooth transition. At this point, the absorption of North Korea by the South would be bloody, either leading to a full scale war or hostile takeover due to the collapse of the regime. It would create acute instability on the Peninsula and across Northeast Asia. Prior to any project of reunification, a currently impracticable path, the two Koreas must be able to narrow the gap between their people’s incomes as much as possible. More than 70 years have passed since the onset of the Korean War, which led to the divide. The two countries are at this point extremely different and there can be no stable and peaceful reunification as long as the economy of the South is 55 times larger than that of the North.

Under its current ruling ideology euphemistically referred to as Juche, or self-reliance, the DPRK can neither emulate nor adopt the South Korean model of development. South Korea, China and Vietnam have integrated with the global economy, and have thus experienced the benefits of technological transfer, acquisition of managerial knowhow and inducement of foreign investment. Isolated countries including the DPRK cannot develop without radical change because they can neither adopt the innovations of developed countries, nor induce foreign investment needed to modernize their economies.

To achieve rapid economic development, North Korea must implement radical political and then economic reform, away from its dysfunctional Juche based system (a so-called scientific and sublimated form of socialism), ending the hostile policy which is fundamental to Juche, and allowing for the creation of a market economy, special economic zones and other policies crucial to success.

Rather than following a path similar to that taken by the South in the 20th century, the DPRK should adopt a model of economic development inspired by the Chinese and Vietnamese approach, this being market socialism. North Korea has the potential to achieve the most rapid economic development of any country in history owing to its prime location, surrounded by prosperous neighbors, and highly strategic in terms of shipping routes. Additionally, the country has significant industry potential. Logistics, fisheries, tourism, and the IT industry show particular promise, and the labor force is both well-disciplined and low cost: a strong encouragement to investors from worldwide companies.

DNK: The Yoon administration has taken a harder stance toward North Korea than the previous Moon administration. What areas do you agree and disagree with in regards to the Yoon administration’s current stance on North Korea? Why do you think that South Korea should lead the Six-Party Talks for the denuclearization of the DPRK, as you stated in your latest article for the South China Morning Post?

Dr. Bang: If the Yoon government wishes to be effective in convincing North Korea to denuclearize, it should lead the Six-Party Talks held in collaboration with the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and the DPRK. President Yoon must lead these talks for four fundamental reasons.

Number one – the U.S. does not have any viable strategic plan to achieve denuclearization of the Peninsula. All denuclearization policies adopted by previous U.S. administrations have singularly failed.

Number two – the U.S.’s overriding policy objectives in the region differ from those of South Korea. For the U.S., denuclearization of the DPRK is an end unto itself, but for South Korea, the establishment of permanent peace and stability on a nuclear-free Peninsula is essential. Moreover, the DPRK’s nuclear weapons constitute a peripheral regional threat to the U.S., but are a life-and-death issue for South Korea.

Number three – to achieve denuclearization, it is important to understand what the nuclear weapons program means to the DPRK. It is a strategic asset, essential for the country’s survival. Therefore, to succeed, any denuclearization deal has to ensure North Korea a better chance of survival as a non-nuclear state. The offer must take the form of a package deal the DPRK cannot refuse, and President Yoon is the only actor able to make such an offer. A package deal has to incorporate a combination of “sticks” and “carrots”, so that if the DPRK continues its nuclear weapons program, it would pay a prohibitively high price and endure devastating punitive measures. However, should the DPRK dismantle its nuclear weapons, stakeholders must guarantee the country a genuine chance of survival.

Number four – denuclearization cannot be achieved without the active participation of China. China is the only country which can wield credible “sticks” against the DPRK. To secure Chinese support for the deal, denuclearization must be accompanied by the realization of permanent peace, stability, and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. Not only does the DPRK have to survive, it must also become economically prosperous, and needs to contribute positively to these aims. If a deal is to come to fruition, it will be contingent upon Chinese support; this means that once permanent peace and stability are established, U.S. ground troops must depart the Peninsula.

Students walking to classes at Kim Il Sung University (Kim Il Sung University website)

South Korea must be the largest provider of essential financial aid to the DPRK in the event of a deal being agreed upon because it stands to gain the most from North Korea’s development. Radical market-oriented economic reform, a peace treaty and denuclearization will not be enough for the DPRK to economically develop, so South Korea must provide monetary support which will enable 10% yearly growth. Unfortunately, the Yoon administration’s approach has so far been ineffective. The president’s so-called “bold and audacious initiative” exposed his limited understanding of what nuclear weapons mean to the DPRK. His approach was fiercely rejected: Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s powerful sister slammed Yoon’s offer, calling it the “height of absurdity” and stating that “no one barters their destiny for a corn cake.” President Yoon must change his approach if he is to succeed within the timeframe of his presidency.

DNK: North Korea has long clamped down on the spread of foreign information inside its country and even restricts the spread of internal information, such as the prices of basic commodities like rice and corn. In recent years, the country has clamped down further on the consumption and spread of South Korean films and movies and, just this year, passed a law targeting people who use or spread South Korean-style speech with various punishments, including the death penalty. How do you view these developments and what can be done to improve North Korea’s stance toward South Korea and South Korean culture?

Dr. Bang: In order to survive, the DPRK must be able to effectively control, and if necessary crack down on, the diffusion of unwanted information. It is crucial that the regime prevents the dissemination of information detrimental to its power. Kim wants to preserve the myth that he was able to establish a workers’ paradise: a country where there is no alienation, where all people have guaranteed jobs, where there is free medicine and food security, distributed according to people’s needs. These attributes are considered the most important safeguards for the regime. Such features are, of course, not present. Within this paradigm, South Korea is being depicted as a country of inequality, poverty and mass exploitation. If someone is found to have used South Korean words, or even wears a South Korean hairstyle, they will be punished for attempting to spread what the regime would characterize as capitalistic poison. However, once the myth disintegrates, the regime will collapse.

The situation has not always been as harsh as it is today. During South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s tenure, the DPRK’s stance on outside information appeared to be softening, but has since regressed. Under President Moon, the leadership in Seoul began to establish good rapport with Kim Jong-un and to engage positively in cultural exchange, paying particular attention to inter-Korean family reunions.

The situation is radically different under President Yoon Suk-yeol. Since his inauguration, the president has taken a more aggressive stance towards North Korea, openly criticizing the DPRK’s military provocations and threats.

In the end, the continuation of cultural activities between the two Koreas is contingent upon the internal situation of the DPRK. The more dire the situation in North Korea, the more the regime will close to any sort of interaction with the outside world. Clamping down on the spread of information, punishing citizens consuming South Korean cultural products and so on, shows how desperate the regime actually is.

As long as the DPRK holds on to its hostile ideology, this horrendous state of affairs will continue. To a country in a state of war, peace is the worst enemy. Little can be done to improve the situation while the DPRK holds on to its nuclear weapons, rather than trading them for a bright future.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

5. Spies Do Not Distinguish Between Friend and Foe

A good Oped from the Chosun Ilbo.

This is why an unnamed US official says the ROK government has handled this incident with grace and subtlety. Of course that is not the case for the opposition party, but that is to be expected.

Spies Do Not Distinguish Between Friend and Foe

english.chosun.com

April 11, 2023 13:45

Confidential U.S. documents that were leaked on social media last week raise strong suspicions that the CIA wiretapped South Korea and other allies. The cache includes sensitive conversations between high-ranking officials at the Office of National Security about the indirect supply of munitions to Ukraine. The presidential office was tight-lipped about the breach, saying the first priority is to assess the veracity of the latest revelations and raised suspicions that certain forces could be attempting to drive a rift between the U.S. and its allies. The government could check the veracity of the revelations simply by asking former presidential security chief Kim Sung-han, who is mentioned in the leaked documents and stepped down just a couple of weeks ago, if the conversations happened. If electronic eavesdropping did occur, then the government must take proper diplomatic steps to address the situation.

But it must remember that spying makes no distinction between friend and foe. That is an open secret in the intelligence community, and the U.S. is not alone when it comes to electronic eavesdropping. The so-called Five Eyes intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K. and the U.S. habitually spy on their allies, and South Korea also spies on other nations. This is a national security matter and has nothing to do with spying on individual citizens.

This is not the first time that the U.S. has been accused of widespread wiretapping. Edward Snowden, a former American computer intelligence consultant revealed in 2013 that the U.S. eavesdropped on the e-mails and phone calls of South Korea, Germany and other allies. Even then German Chancellor Angela Merkel's phone was bugged. This practice will continue as long as nations exist, and it would be foolish of a government to make too much of it.

The main opposition Minjoo Party's calls to summon the U.S. ambassador or blame the wiretaps on President Yoon Suk-yeol's decision to relocate the presidential office are silly and politically motivated. China, Russia and the U.S. probably eavesdropped on the government when the president came from the Minjoo Party. South Korea is an intelligence hotspot due to its proximity to North Korea and other powers. The practice will continue to exist, and it is unfortunately up to the government to try and avoid being wiretapped and strengthen its own intelligence capacities.

Read this article in Korean

english.chosun.com

6. ‘Facts about allegation of U.S. surveillance should be identified,’ S. Korean presidential office says

Grace and subtlety. The ROK is demonstrating it is a good ally. But it must be measured and cautious because it is going to have to deal with the political opposition.

‘Facts about allegation of U.S. surveillance should be identified,’ S. Korean presidential office says

donga.com

Posted April. 11, 2023 07:51,

Updated April. 11, 2023 07:51

‘Facts about allegation of U.S. surveillance should be identified,’ S. Korean presidential office says. April. 11, 2023 07:51. by Kwan-Seok Jang jks@donga.com.

The South Korean presidential office said on Monday that facts should be established first with regard to the allegation that a U.S. intelligence agency wiretapped discussions by senior members of the National Security Office of South Korea. “Once the two countries establish the facts, we will request adequate measures to the U.S.,” it said. The office added that some of the leaked materials from wiretapping could have been edited or fabricated. Its comments seem to try to minimize the unexpected allegation’s impact on the bilateral alliance two weeks before South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to the U.S. At the same time, the presidential office plans to strengthen internal security review and develop response measures. The allegation was mentioned during the chief secretary meeting presided by the president on Monday.

“The process of establishing the facts and requesting adequate measures will be conducted based on the trust relationship between South Korea and the U.S.,” said a member of the presidential office. However, he added that what was reported by the U.S. media is not a confirmed fact. “Establishing the facts is the priority as the U.S. Department of Defense also asked the Department of Justice to conduct an investigation,” he added. “It cannot be said that ‘a thief broke into a house’ without confirm‎ing if there was a thief and what he stole if there was one,” he also said. “As all countries in the world are engaged in espionage, there is no reason to say that we were robbed from the perspective of national interest.”

The National Security Office and the Presidential Security Service are reviewing measures to strengthen security. A member of the presidential office said on Monday that the Presidential Secretariat is cautious on the matter of security and will take further measures to strengthen security in the face of such an allegation.

Meanwhile, Kim Tae-hyo, the first deputy chief of the National Security Office, will visit the U.S. from Tuesday through Saturday to discuss final coordination for President Yoon’s state visit at the end of this month. Kim will discuss the allegation of wiretapping during his visit. Working-level members, including the director-general for North American countries of the Ministry Of Foreign Affairs, also left for Washington on Monday.

According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement on Sunday that highly classified documents seemed to be included and that they are checking the validity of the photographed documents.

한국어

donga.com

7. Opinion | South Korea’s Unhealthy Obsession With Japan

An Oped worth reading and reflecting on. It is not exclusive about the Japanese relationship but its relationship with China as well.

Opinion | South Korea’s Unhealthy Obsession With Japan

The New York Times · by Se-Woong Koo · April 10, 2023

Guest Essay

South Korea’s Unhealthy Obsession With Japan

April 10, 2023, 6:00 a.m. ET

Colleague students in Seoul bowing to a statue symbolizing Korean laborers forcibly sent abroad to Japan during a rally to oppose the visit to Japan by President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press

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Mr. Koo is a South Korean-born writer and journalist.

SEOUL — When I was a boy growing up in South Korea in the early 1990s, my mother gave me a 60-volume set of biographies. Half of them profiled eminent global figures — the Buddha, Abraham Lincoln, Marie Curie — the rest were Koreans, many of whom were renowned for one thing: resisting Japan.

I asked why there weren’t more Koreans worth remembering, perhaps for other reasons. “That’s what our history is about, I guess,” she replied. “Fighting Japan.”

For decades Koreans have been unable to move on from Japan’s 1910-45 colonization of the Korean Peninsula — its rapacious rule, the conscription of laborers and “comfort women” sex slaves. It’s been like a form of national brainwashing.

It’s time for South Koreans to let go of these unhealthy emotions. We share too much in common with Japan. We are both modern democracies, economic success stories and fellow U.S. allies. And there is a bigger threat looming over both of us: China.

In school we lionized people like Yi Sun-shin, a Korean admiral who helped repel a Japanese invasion more than four centuries ago, as if it happened yesterday. Japanese depredations were blamed for stifling national development. It didn’t help that Tokyo showed a lack of remorse with its history of using school textbooks that were seen in Korea as glossing over its wartime brutality and with visits by Japanese politicians to the Tokyo shrine where convicted war criminals are honored.

As in many post-colonial countries, our feelings were often conflicted. In the early 1990s, a South Korean book, whose title could be roughly translated as “Japan’s Got Nothing,” was published. A litany of Japan’s supposed national flaws, it was a best seller. Shortly after, another best seller came out: “Japan’s Got Something,” which took a more generous view.

President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, a conservative, realizes the need for a change. With one eye on China (and North Korea), he has been busy making nice with Japan. Last month his administration proposed a compromise resolution to a decades-old dispute over compensation for conscripted Korean laborers during World War II. (Rather than insisting that Japanese companies that used the laborers pay the compensation, a South Korean government-run fund would do it).

Mr. Yoon quickly followed up with a state visit to Japan — the first between the two countries in 12 years — where he tossed back a beer with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan.

My first trip abroad was to Japan in 1992. It seemed like everyone I knew wanted me to bring coveted Japanese goods back for them — Sony Walkmans and Toshiba rice cookers. But we were careful about speaking positively of Japan. South Korea’s political class has long thrived on anti-Japanese rhetoric, and any hint of admiration for Japan could have you labeled a traitor (I’m bracing for that as I write this).

In a cathartic release of resentment, the South Korean government in 1995 began demolishing Japan’s grand former colonial headquarters — a great architectural loss — that had dominated central Seoul. After the Japanese left, it became a government building and, later, a museum. I wandered through it as a child, enthralled at the wondrous exhibits of Korean history and art, and I couldn’t quite understand why it had to be leveled. But such vestiges of the colonial era had to be “eradicated,” we were told, as if they were cockroaches. Even now, the site of Japan’s embassy in Seoul has an under-siege air to it, with protests regularly held on the street out front as a statue of a young girl, representing “comfort women” victims, stares at the embassy.

However, fear of China, the powerful neighbor on our opposite side, is helping to break the anti-Japan spell.

China has exerted tremendous influence on Korea for more than 2,000 years, and for centuries was viewed by Korean intellectuals as the source of all that was civilized. We avidly embraced Chinese literary, cultural and philosophical traditions and used China’s writing system for much of our history. I was one of the admirers. My mother enrolled me as a child in private lessons on reading classical Chinese, which was considered the height of sophistication. The elegance of the texts moved me deeply.

Despite South Korean antipathy toward communism, and China’s entry into the Korean War on the side of North Korea, many of us looked to China with hope that it could use its influence to promote a peaceful reunification of North and South.

But North Korea is as belligerent as ever, and China is now viewed in the South as part of the problem, propping up its communist neighbor while doing little to prevent its acquisition of missile and nuclear technology. In 2016, in the name of countering the North Korean threat, South Korea agreed to let the United States deploy a missile-defense system on its soil. China reacted with rage, its government-run media calling for boycotts of South Korean products.

My fascination with China led me to bachelor’s and master’s degrees in Chinese studies. But my feelings began to sour when some of my Mandarin teachers, who were from China, insisted that Taiwan, a successful, progressive democracy, was a rogue province that must be brought under China’s control. Four years ago, I participated in a panel discussion on Chinese state television and was asked how East Asian countries could cooperate better. When I started to say that vastly different political systems remained a stumbling block, the Chinese host cut me off, apparently trying to stop me from criticizing Chinese authoritarianism.

South Koreans now have some of the world’s most negative views of China, according to surveys, citing the emergence of the coronavirus from Wuhan, repression by the Chinese Communist Party and air pollution that wafts eastward over our country. The gradual phasing out of Chinese characters since the 1970s in favor of a native Korean alphabet has made Chinese culture feel outdated. Many South Koreans fear that Beijing’s stated intention to “unify” with self-ruled Taiwan — militarily, if necessary — could drag us into a devastating regional conflict.

Still, Mr. Yoon has been vilified by his political opponents who, reverting to the same old playbook, denounce his outreach to Japan as “humiliating.” His already low approval ratings have dipped further.

But many South Koreans seem ready to move on. Even beyond their shared anxiety about China, South Korea and Japan are bound by their mutual fascination with each other’s culture and entertainment, such as K-pop, K-drama and Pokemon. Japan is wildly popular with Korean tourists, more Koreans are positive toward Japan than negative and most South Koreans favor better relations with Tokyo.

Swapping one boogeyman for another may not be healthy for the Korean national psyche, but perhaps that’s the fate of a country like ours, sandwiched between powerful neighbors. And for once, at least, I can agree with my politically conservative parents, who have come to share my distrust of China and affection for Japan.

I took my mother to Japan last month to see the cherry blossoms in bloom. Post-pandemic travel between the two countries has surged, and Korean tourists were everywhere. As we strolled along the Sumida River in Tokyo, its banks ablaze with the soft pink of cherry blossoms, she let out a contented sigh, turned to me and said, “This country is so beautiful and civilized.”

Se-Woong Koo is a South Korean-born writer and journalist.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

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The New York Times · by Se-Woong Koo · April 10, 2023

8. Cars Overtake Chips as Korea's Top Export

Cars Overtake Chips as Korea's Top Export

english.chosun.com

April 11, 2023 12:57

Cars have overtaken semiconductors for the first time in nine years to become the country's most profitable export although the overall trade balance remains in the red.

According to the Korea International Trade Association on Monday, cars posted a trade surplus of $7.92 billion in the first two months of this year, rising to $10.5 billion if automotive parts are included.

Semiconductors, which ranked at the top from 2017 to 2022, fell to eighth place with a surplus of $1.9 billion.

Korea's automobile trade surplus increased 37.2 percent on-year in January and February. Analysts said rising car prices at Hyundai and Kia, which account for 88 percent of Korea's total car exports, played a major role.

The average sales price of their cars surpassed W50 million for the first time last year and a strong U.S. dollar helped increase exports in money terms. The Korean auto giants sold more value-added vehicles like SUVs and hybrid and electric cars and Genesis premium cars.

Hyundai's fully revamped Kona SUV is displayed at the New York International Auto Show in Manhattan on April 5. /EPA-Yonhap

Another factor was improved performance in North America and Europe. Korea's car exports rose 22 percent in the first two months to 421,668 cars, soaring 41 percent in North America and 18 percent in the EU.

Hyundai-Kia took fourth place in car sales in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of last year to beat Stellantis. In the first quarter this year, their sales in North America rose another 18.5 percent on-year to 382,354 vehicles to rank fourth after GM, Toyota and Ford.

Although sales of Korean electric cars slowed after they were excluded from U.S. tax breaks, sales of compact SUVs and sedans increased 20 to 40 percent there, and U.S. sales of Genesis surged 17.5 percent.

Hyundai-Kia's sales in Europe rose 1.1 percent to 162,835 cars, and around 10,000 of those were electric.

GM Korea and Renault Korea, which export most of their cars, also fared well. GM Korea started manufacturing the Trax compact SUV at its Changwon plant in February, and it became hugely popular in North America, with exports totaling 20,000 vehicles until last month.

GM Korea's exports totaled 709,386 vehicles including the Trailblazer in the first quarter, which is 1.5 times more than a year ago.

Renault Korea is also boosting exports to Europe centering on the XM3 compact SUV. Shipments rose 14.5 percent on-year in the first quarter to 25,846 vehicles.

The outlook for this year remains bright as the supply crunch due to a shortage in automotive chips is being dealt with. Hyundai's global order backlog still hovers at around 600,000, although it has fallen from 1 million a year ago. But there are signs of slowdown in global demand amid interest rate hikes.

Electric Cars Prove Profitable for Korean Exporters

Car Exports Hit Record High

Korean Carmakers' Sales Edge up

Cars to Become Korea's 2nd-Biggest Exports Again

Electric Vehicle Exports Surge

Cars, Microchips Lead Export Surge

Korea Sees Sharp Rise in EV Exports

english.chosun.com

9. Amid Furor, Seoul Downplays Leaked Pentagon Documents

Some interesting information not only about South Korea but north Korea as well.

Excerpts:

One document said that the South Korean National Security Council in early March was grappling with a request from the United States to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine. Seoul has never confirmed such a request, although it said it was discussing selling 155-mm artillery shells to Washington on the condition that the U.S. military would be their “end user.” That stance was designed in part to prevent provoking Moscow, whose cooperation Seoul needs to contain an increasingly belligerent North Korea.

Another document showed senior presidential aides in Seoul concerned that President Biden would call Mr. Yoon to pressure him to ship ammunition to Ukraine or that the artillery shells South Korea was selling to the United States might end up in the war-torn country despite export controls. The aides also discussed the possibility of selling 330,000 artillery shells to Poland, with Warsaw “being called the end user” yet sending the ammunition on to Ukraine anyway.

...

A third document showed what looked like a timetable for 330,000 artillery shells in South Korea being airlifted to Ukraine or shipped from the South Korean port of Jinhae to the German port of Nordenham. It was unclear whether the timetable described a shipment already underway or just planned. The origin of the shells could indicate that the U.S. military was diverting its own stockpiles held in South Korea to Ukraine or that it was buying shells from South Korea to help replenish its own stockpiles.

...

The documents also said that North Korea had conducted checks on March 1 to prepare for an ICBM test flight. (The North launched an ICBM on March 16.) Another document said that the record-breaking number of intercontinental ballistic missile-class launchers North Korea showed during a military parade in February were “most likely carrying nonoperational systems.”

“The North paraded these nonoperational systems to portray a larger, more capable missile force than it possesses and to mitigate the risk of damage to its real missiles,” it said. Independent analysts have long said that the missiles North Korea shows during its parades were likely imitations.

The leaked document added that North Korea would probably be unable to outfit all of the paraded ICBM launchers with operational missiles capable of striking the continental United States during the next year “because of testing hurdles and resource constraints.”

Amid Furor, Seoul Downplays Leaked Pentagon Documents

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · April 11, 2023

As opposition lawmakers in South Korea accuse Washington of spying, President Yoon Suk Yeol has tried to minimize the significance of the breach.

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Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III speaking with Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup of South Korea during a joint new conference after a January meeting in Seoul.Credit...Pool photo by Jeon Heon-Kyun

April 11, 2023, 3:59 a.m. ET

SEOUL — South Korea downplayed on Tuesday the trove of highly classified Pentagon documents leaked through social media as the government of President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to deal with the fallout of what opposition lawmakers called a major security breach and possible violation of national sovereignty.

The leaked documents suggest that the United States has been spying on top national security officials in Mr. Yoon’s administration. Opposition lawmakers in Seoul accused Washington of “violating the sovereignty” of a key ally, calling the spying “a super-scale security breach.”

“If it is true that they have spied on us, it is a very disappointing act that undermines the South Korea-U.S. alliance, which is based on mutual trust,” Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, told foreign media reporters on Tuesday. If it was true, he added, Washington should also apologize to the South Korean people.

Mr. Yoon’s administration has insisted that the scandal would not and should not damage his country’s alliance with the United States. On Tuesday, his government appeared to minimize the leak, saying that Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and and his American counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, had agreed during a Tuesday morning phone call that “quite a few of the documents in question were fabricated.”

But South Korean officials would not discuss the information contained in the leaked documents or what exactly they considered to be fabricated. So far, the leaked documents obtained by The New York Times have contained three entries on South Korea.

More on U.S. Armed Forces

Stripping Confederate Ties: In the first of nine scheduled redesignations aimed at purging the symbols of the Confederacy from the military, Fort Pickett in Virginia became Fort Barfoot in honor of Col. Van Barfoot, a Medal of Honor recipient.
Feeding the War Machine: The Pentagon’s deliveries of weapons to help Ukraine hold off Russia have exposed a worrisome lack of production capacity in the United States that has its roots in the aftermath of the Cold War.
In Africa: With terrorists moving south across the Sahel and threatening the coastal states of West Africa, the focus of the Pentagon’s annual Flintlock exercise was on helping participants see their broader role in counterterrorist actions.

One document said that the South Korean National Security Council in early March was grappling with a request from the United States to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine. Seoul has never confirmed such a request, although it said it was discussing selling 155-mm artillery shells to Washington on the condition that the U.S. military would be their “end user.” That stance was designed in part to prevent provoking Moscow, whose cooperation Seoul needs to contain an increasingly belligerent North Korea.

A South Korean K9 howitzer in the Polish Navy port of Gdynia, in December.Credit...Michal Dyjuk/Associated Press

Another document showed senior presidential aides in Seoul concerned that President Biden would call Mr. Yoon to pressure him to ship ammunition to Ukraine or that the artillery shells South Korea was selling to the United States might end up in the war-torn country despite export controls. The aides also discussed the possibility of selling 330,000 artillery shells to Poland, with Warsaw “being called the end user” yet sending the ammunition on to Ukraine anyway.

When asked if the conversation captured in the documents was accurate, Kim Tae-hyo, a deputy national security adviser to Mr. Yoon, said “No” to reporters at the airport on Tuesday, according to the national news agency Yonhap. Mr. Kim was departing for Washington to prepare for Mr. Yoon’s summit with Mr. Biden on April 26.

Mr. Yoon’s office would not comment beyond Mr. Kim’s remark. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland has emerged as the biggest buyer of South Korean weapons, agreeing to purchase multibillion dollars’ worth of South Korean tanks, howitzers, missiles and aircraft.

A third document showed what looked like a timetable for 330,000 artillery shells in South Korea being airlifted to Ukraine or shipped from the South Korean port of Jinhae to the German port of Nordenham. It was unclear whether the timetable described a shipment already underway or just planned. The origin of the shells could indicate that the U.S. military was diverting its own stockpiles held in South Korea to Ukraine or that it was buying shells from South Korea to help replenish its own stockpiles.

Senior U.S. officials said the Federal Bureau of Investigation was working to determine the source of the leaks. The officials acknowledged that the documents appear to be legitimate intelligence and operational briefs compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, using reports from the government’s intelligence community, but that at least one had been modified from the original at some later point. The apparent authenticity of the documents, however, is not an indication of their accuracy.

Mr. Yoon’s office insisted on Tuesday that it had a strong system in place to thwart attempts at spying on its officials. It accused opposition lawmakers of spreading “fake, negative suspicions” in order to gin up votes.

“This is a self-damaging act against national interest that undermines the South Korea-U.S. alliance at a time of ceaseless provocations and nuclear threat from North Korea,” it said.

The documents also said that North Korea had conducted checks on March 1 to prepare for an ICBM test flight. (The North launched an ICBM on March 16.) Another document said that the record-breaking number of intercontinental ballistic missile-class launchers North Korea showed during a military parade in February were “most likely carrying nonoperational systems.”

“The North paraded these nonoperational systems to portray a larger, more capable missile force than it possesses and to mitigate the risk of damage to its real missiles,” it said. Independent analysts have long said that the missiles North Korea shows during its parades were likely imitations.

The leaked document added that North Korea would probably be unable to outfit all of the paraded ICBM launchers with operational missiles capable of striking the continental United States during the next year “because of testing hurdles and resource constraints.”

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · April 11, 2023

10. North can hit all of South, U.S. bases in Japan: Experts

Information we have long assessed.

Some useful graphics at the web site.

Monday

April 10, 2023

dictionary + A - A

North can hit all of South, U.S. bases in Japan: Experts

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/04/10/national/northKorea/korea-north-korea-missiles/20230410144722297.html?utm

A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency on March 20 showing a rocket launch during a tactical drill to bolster the country's war deterrence and nuclear counterattack capability at an undisclosed location in North Korea on March 18 and 19. [EPA/YONHAP]

North Korea has noticeably advanced its tactical nuclear weapons program to target not only the rest of the Korean Peninsula but also U.S. bases in the region, according to experts in Seoul.

“North Korea has developed a unique method of loading nuclear warheads onto missiles like loading bullets into a gun,” an analyst in Seoul said on condition of anonymity. “Because it cannot compete directly in nuclear power with existing nuclear superpowers such as the United States, China and Russia, the regime appears to have chosen the path of developing tactical nuclear weapons instead.”

North Korea currently appears to have at least eight types of missiles that can carry Hwasan-31 tactical nuclear warheads to target all of the Korean Peninsula or even U.S. bases in Japan.

These missiles, including the KN-23, a short-range ballistic missile considered the North Korean version of Russia's Iskander missile, and the Haeil, a nuclear-capable, unmanned underwater drone designed to attack by setting off large, radioactive tidal waves, were in a poster of missiles seen hanging behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as he examined a Hwasan-31 warhead in a photo released by North Korean state media on March 28.

Reports in South Korea estimate the Hwasan-31 to be 40 centimeters (15.7 inches) to 50 centimeters in diameter, 90 centimeters in length, 150 kilograms (330 pounds) to 200 kilograms in weight, and 4 to 7 kilotons in power.

While neither the U.S. nor South Korean government has confirmed whether North Korea has successfully miniaturized the Hwasan-31 tactical nuclear warhead so it can be mounted on a missile, many experts say the North has likely done so.

“It seems that the nuclear warhead was designed in the particular shape of a bullet to facilitate its mounting on the projectile,” said a government official on condition of anonymity.

Many short-range missiles developed by North Korea in recent years are capable of pull-up maneuvers and other countermeasures that make them harder to intercept.

The KN-23 is able to pull-up midway, while the KN-24 — also known as North Korea's version of the short-range ballistic missile ATACMS — is able to spray submunitions from the sky, allowing them to defeat South Korean or U.S. antimissile defense systems such as the Patriot Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) interceptor or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system, which intercept missiles in the final stage based on predicted trajectories.

Similar problems apply for the KN-25, which can be launched multiple times from a super-large multiple-launch rocket system.

The mix of conventional warheads and tactical nuclear warheads by the North could pose further challenges to the South’s defense strategies, some experts say.

"Given the short depth of the Korean Peninsula, we barely have time to intercept a missile,” said Lee Chun-geun, senior research fellow at Science and Technology Policy Institute. “It will be difficult to intercept a missile mounted with a tactical nuclear warhead."

Kwon Yong-soo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs (KIMA) and a former professor at Korea National Defense University, said that North Korea didn’t simply re-invent the Iskander, but made sure that its “evasion maneuver performance has been improved significantly.”

Several experts in South Korea including Park Yong-han at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses released a report in January estimating that North Korea aims to possess as many as 300 nuclear warheads long-term, which, if achieved, would put North Korea on par with China.

During his visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute last month, North Korean leader Kim also ordered production of weapons-grade nuclear material to accelerate the production of powerful nuclear weapons.

The South Korean general public is well aware of the North’s recent rhetoric and actions related to nuclear weapons, with as many as 76.6 percent of South Koreans surveyed by the Chey Institute in January calling for the South to develop its own nuclear weapons to counter the nuclear threat from the North.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]

11. South Korea to Probe Circumstances Around Reported Leak of Classified U.S. Documents

I wonder if the resignations of these officials had to do with the Ukraine ammunition situation.

Excerpts:

The two former South Korean officials cited in the documents—Yi Mun-hui, then-secretary for foreign affairs at the National Security Council, and Kim Sung-han, then-national security adviser—discussed concerns in the National Security Council that President Biden would call Mr. Yoon directly before Seoul had a “clear position” on supplying the ammunition, the documents said.

Messrs. Yi and Kim stepped down from their posts at the end of March, and South Korea hasn’t publicly offered an explanation for their departures. Asked whether the government had confirmed the discussion between the two former officials or investigated them over the matter, the official from the presidential office said the government doesn’t customarily confirm details of diplomatic and intelligence issues, without elaborating further. Messrs. Yi and Kim couldn’t be reached for comment on Monday.

South Korea to Probe Circumstances Around Reported Leak of Classified U.S. Documents

Seoul could ask the U.S. ‘to take reasonable measures’ if reports of the leak are confirmed

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-to-probe-circumstances-around-reported-leak-of-classified-u-s-documents-281aa7c8?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1

SEOUL—A South Korean official said the government was investigating the circumstances around a leak of highly classified U.S. documents that appeared to show intelligence based on intercepted communications of U.S. allies, including discussions among Seoul officials about concerns over selling ammunition to the U.S. that could end up in Ukraine.

South Korea’s first priority was to establish the facts, an official from the country’s presidential office said on Monday, adding that the reports of the intelligence leak hadn’t been confirmed. Once that is done, South Korea “plans to request, if necessary, the U.S. to take reasonable measures,” the official said.

The official said the process would be “based on the relationship of trust established between the two countries.” Other U.S. allies have been affected by the leak, including Israel, France and the U.K., and South Korea would “look into how other countries are responding” to the matter, the official said.

The U.S. is seeking to assess the damage from the intelligence breach after dozens of images of purportedly classified U.S. documents began circulating online. A State Department spokesman declined Monday to comment on the validity of the documents. He said the U.S. was engaging at high levels with allies and partners over the recent intelligence leak to reassure them of Washington’s commitment to safeguarding intelligence and to the security of their partnerships.

The Wall Street Journal hasn’t been able to independently verify the authenticity of the documents, but they contain enough detail to give them credibility.

On Tuesday, the official from the presidential office said the defense ministers from the U.S. and South Korea agreed that a significant number of the documents were forged, without offering further details. The official also dismissed the possibility that another country could eavesdrop on officials in the South Korean presidential office, saying the security was ironclad.

The documents, viewed by the Journal, include purported details of a conversation that took place on March 1 between top aides to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in which they discuss a sale of ammunition to the U.S. and concerns about it violating the country’s policy against providing lethal aid if the U.S. wasn’t the end user.

A Ukrainian serviceman in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine last month.

PHOTO: STRINGER/REUTERS

South Korea, one of the world’s fastest-growing arms manufacturers, has come under pressure from Western officials to supply weapons directly to Ukraine. The country signed its largest-ever arms export deal last year, agreeing to supply tanks and jet fighters to Poland. Last month, South Korea said it had approved the exports of components that were part of Krab howitzers made in Poland, though noting that its policy against providing lethal aid to Kyiv hadn’t changed.

The two former South Korean officials cited in the documents—Yi Mun-hui, then-secretary for foreign affairs at the National Security Council, and Kim Sung-han, then-national security adviser—discussed concerns in the National Security Council that President Biden would call Mr. Yoon directly before Seoul had a “clear position” on supplying the ammunition, the documents said.

U.S. Weapons Pledge to Ukraine Exposes Cracks in Defense Supply Chain

Indicting ex-presidents: It’s par for the course in South Korea

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

SEOUL, South Korea — Americans have been transfixed in recent weeks by the spectacle of the indictment of former President Donald Trump — the first time in nearly 250 years that a former leader of the U.S. as a sovereign country has been charged with criminal activity, let alone 34 felonies.

Although pro- and anti-Trumpers pondered the implications of a precedent shattered, the brouhaha compelled a Korean-American academic to pose this question on social media: Has the student, South Korea, overtaken the master, the U.S., in the practice of democracy?

Despite an astonishing political revolution in recent decades that has provided a bedrock for the country’s economic surge, perhaps no other democracy is as keen on putting former presidents in the dock. Despite South Korea’s free elections, free press and strong judicial system, its former leaders have routinely been imprisoned, sentenced to death and even killed themselves amid judicial probes.

Is it a healthy sign that no man or woman is above the law? Or is it a sign of still-pervasive political corruption and a system that seems to promote legal action against the once high and mighty? With Mr. Trump’s case dominating the headlines, South Koreans seem divided.

“There are two contending theories,” said Moon Chung-in, an academic who has advised three administrations in Seoul. “One is that these are political prosecutions, and the other is that there is no exception to the rule of law.”

“I would say the jury is still out,” said Shin Hee-seok, a legal analyst at the Transitional Justice Working Group. “Having experienced all these ex-presidents either getting arrested or killing himself, there is a risk that once you start turning to prosecutors or investigators, it has a tendency to create dangerous precedents.”

Dangerous, indeed. Being a South Korean president is one of Asia’s riskiest professions.

The worst job in politics?

Consider the record.

South Korea was founded in 1948. Its first president, Syngman Rhee, was driven into exile in Hawaii in 1960 after police gunned down student demonstrators. Subsequently, President Park Chung-hee, who seized power in a coup, ruled harshly while engineering the country’s “economic miracle” but was spared that humiliation. He was assassinated by his intelligence chief in 1978.

Chun Doo-hwan, another former general who seized power and was blamed for the killings of more than 200 pro-democracy protesters in 1980, was sentenced to death after he left office. His successor and right-hand man, former Gen. Roh Tae-woo — the first democratically elected president after the military juntas — got a life sentence after stepping down for his participation in past coups and for human rights abuses.

The next two presidents, Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung, escaped the slammer — but their sons were imprisoned for corruption. The next former president, liberal Roh Moo-hyun, killed himself in 2009 amid probes into alleged familial corruption.

The two subsequent presidents, conservatives Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, were both imprisoned for corruption. Ms. Park’s successor, the liberal Moon Jae-in, under whose term Mr. Lee and Ms. Park were sentenced, remains free.

When Mr. Lee was imprisoned in 2018 on charges of embezzling roughly $22 million, American Enterprise Institute scholar Olivia Schieber observed: “Half of all living former South Korean presidents are now in prison.”

This may appear like just deserts from the public gallery, but none of the condemned presidents served a full sentence. All received political pardons, usually for the sake of “national unity.” Even the widely despised Chun escaped the hangman.

It’s a similar pattern for leading South Korean business figures. Many have been convicted of white-collar crimes but released early, usually with judges citing their importance to the economy.

Fair justice or political vengeance?

South Korean political analysts say legal prosecution has historically been used as a political bludgeon.

“The office of the president has quite a profound influence over the prosecutor’s office,” said Mr. Moon, the former presidential adviser. “The direction of investigations is influenced by the presidential office.”

Some argue that the legal woes of former presidents represent nothing other than political payback by the opposition party after it assumes office. Because of the close ties between politicians and business leaders, it is typically not hard to build a corruption case.

“The entire [presidential] MO is to use the corruption of the other side — of which there is some — to justify your own rule and elevate yourself,” said Michael Breen, the Seoul-based author of “The New Koreans.”

Even so, Mr. Breen sees one upside.

“The only progress that Koreans would feel is that they are no longer afraid of their leaders,” he said. “But they are not able to adjust to having honored and respected ex-presidents.”

Critics say another downside of the South Korean experience is the empowerment of overambitious prosecutors. Trump supporters in the U.S. have echoed that criticism.

“A lot of prosecutors in South Korea see it as micro-heroism if they indict ministers or a president,” said Mr. Moon. “They have big egos and want to leave a historical record — ‘I indicted such and such a person’ — and that is a bad habit.”

AEI’s Ms. Schieber said the serial prosecutions of presidents are not healthy. “Rather, they reveal how tenuous South Korea’s hold on democracy really is,” she said.

Making things worse, the critics say, is that the endless string of pardons for high-profile criminals generates even more popular cynicism about the political process.

“You see so many of them getting out of jail early, so there is a double standard,” said Mr. Shin, who is affiliated with the law department of Seoul’s elite Yonsei University. “I wonder if all of this does not create some level of cynicism about the political and judicial systems.”

Mr. Breen warns Americans against letting political partisanship infiltrate judicial practice.

“I am not saying that Trump is not guilty, but the glee with which it is being received — ‘At last we have got him, and the details don’t really matter’ — while those who are crying foul are all supporters, gives you a sense of what is going on here.”

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

13. ‘Secret rooms’ in North Korean restaurants create a space to conduct illicit affairs

north Korean illicit activities.

‘Secret rooms’ in North Korean restaurants create a space to conduct illicit affairs

The back rooms bring in extra cash to help struggling business owners meet state-set earnings quotas

By Chang Gyu Ahn for RFA Korean

2023.04.1

rfa.org

In North Korea, couples involved in illicit romantic or business affairs who need private places away from prying eyes don’t have many options.

So restaurant and karaoke bar owners have created “secret rooms” – usually in the back of their establishments – where so-called “8.3 couples” can pay extra for privacy, which brings in extra cash, sources in the country say.

The slang for secret or adulterous couples comes from a government directive issued back on August 3, 1984 that encouraged factories to earn extra money beyond their state-set profit quotas by reusing waste materials. It has come to refer to anyone who does extra work on the side.

Such private rooms are not new in North Korea; authorities had shut down most of them in past crackdowns to stamp out “anti-socialist” behavior.

But they are now re-emerging, probably because many eateries and related outfits are struggling to make money three-years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which included a lengthy shutdown that restricted travel and trade has crippled the economy, the sources told Radio Free Asia.

In the northeastern coastal city of Chongjin, even the most popular restaurants have secret rooms because the managers are worried they won’t meet their government-mandated quotas, a resident there said on condition of anonymity so as not to get in trouble.

“The secret room is usually located in the corner of the dining room, a table placed in a dressing room, or a room previously used to store food materials,” she said.

“Restaurant staff will quietly escort 8.3 couples – men and women who appear to be in a romantic relationship – to the secret room,” she said. “After the food is served, the server does not enter the secret room unless the customer asks.”

Loaded male patrons

Such privacy does come at a price, reflected in the more expensive menu items. Most of the clientele are rich North Korean men – a somewhat rare breed in the country – who can afford to spend more, she said.

“Men who come in with a young woman are usually loaded, so they will seek out more expensive food than regular customers and drink lots of beer and other beverages,” she said. “The restaurants offer the secret rooms to attract these kinds of customers who can spend more.”

The eastern coastal city of Sinpo has many restaurants running secret rooms, a source there who recently visited one with a female business partner said.

“I experienced it myself when I went to a restaurant in Sinpo last week,” he said. “The server directed us to a room in the back. It was a small room with only one table, but no one was coming in and out. So, it was good to talk about business and secrets.”

He thought the food prices were a bit expensive, but “didn’t want to argue so I could save face in front of the woman I was with,” he said. “On the way out, I saw the server guiding another young man and woman into the secret room.”

Chong Eun-joo, a former restaurant worker who lived in North Hamgyong Province until 2019 and resettled in South Korea, said her former workplace had two secret rooms.

“We guided men and women who seemed to be in a relationship or were 8.3 couples into the secret rooms,” she said. “You can tell when you see an 8.3 couple.”

“We charged 2,000 won [about 24 U.S. cents] more per item on the menu,” she said, explaining that it represented about a 10% price increase. “There were many cases where customers who used the room once came back again.”

Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Written in English by Eugene Whong. Edited by Malcolm Foster.

rfa.org

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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