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Quotes of the Day:
"No one is going to give you the education you need to overthrow them. Nobody is going to teach you your true history, teach you your true heroes, if they know that that knowledge will help set you free."
– Assata Shakur
"Self education is, I firmly believe, the only education there is.”
– Isaac Asimov
“A slave is one who waits for someone to come and free him.”
– Ezra Pound
1. SASC: Open/Closed: To receive testimony on the posture of United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2026 and the Future Years Defense Program
2. INDOPACOM CO Paparo Outlines Risk of Western Pacific Conflict
3. US Commander in India(INDOPACOM): “If US Forces in Korea are reduced, there is a high possibility of North Korea invading”
4. US Forces Korea commander defends troop levels amid talk of cuts
5. Seoul Prefers Investment, Not Confrontation On Tariff War
6. Top General Says North Korea Continuing Weapons Development, Becoming More Isolated
7. U.S. military leaders negative about USFK troop reduction
8. Trump says U.S. may buy 'top-of-the-line' ships from 'close' countries
9. U.S. shows willingness to handle tariff talks smoothly with S. Korea: trade minister
10. South Korea establishes ties with Syria, a longstanding North Korea ally
11. Yoon continues to wield influence on party, election
12. “Single Guardianship System Centered on Choe Ryong-hae Could Cause ‘North Korean Regime Instability’”
1. SASC: Open/Closed: To receive testimony on the posture of United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2026 and the Future Years Defense Program
The 2 hour + hearing is at this link: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-receive-testimony-on-the-posture-of-united-states-indo-pacific-command-and-united-states-forces-korea-in-review-of-the-defense-authorization-request-for-fiscal-year-2026-and-the-future-years-defense-program
I recommend anyone with an interest in INDOPACOM security to take the time to watch it. It was very informative and worth the time.
ADM Paparo's statement can be downloaded there: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/testimony_of_adm_paparo.pdf
GEN Brunson's statement can be downloaded here: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/testimony_of_gen_brunson.pdf
There is alot to parse from their testimony. I will make 6 points:
1. The most significant overall comment I have is how complementary the two commanders were in their reamkars. By that I mean Admiral Paparo spoke very expertly about the Korean situation. General Brunson emphasized more than once the contributions US forces and the alliance can make outside of theKTO and off the peninsula. He really showed that he is nested with Admiral Paparo's planning.
2. Both Commanders stated their opposition to any reduction of US forces in Korea. General Brunson was asked point blank if Congress should continue to include the 28,500 floor in the NDAA and he answered yes. I wonder how this will go over with the political appointees in the administration to include the SECDEF and the new USD(P). Admiral Paparo stated that withdrawal of US forces from Korea will surely lead to conflict.
3. Kim Jong Un's intent. I think General Brunson was caught off guard by one senator's question or he misheard the question. This was in regard to Kim's new strategic view of the South as the main enemy and that he no longer seeks (peaceful) unification. The question was if that is the case does that mean that Kim no longer seeks to attack the South. General Brunson discussed the conventional intelligence perspective and those of some pundits who think Kim is isolating himself even more north of the DMZ and in fact does not seek war any more and that he has accepted that there are two separate Koreas and that he only has a military and nuclear weapons to deter an attack from the South. . This was a missed opportunity to explain that Kim has not at all given up his quest to dominate the entire peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State as the only path to long term regime survival. Admiral Papero stepped in and stated that Kim remains a threat to the South and is continuing to prepare to use force to achieve his objectives.
4. This is a statement from the written testimony: "Contrary to predictions of collapse due to food shortages, the DPRK is more stable than ever, bolstered by substantial resources generated through new revenue streams." While it is very true that Kim has new revenue streams from cyber enable economic warfare and Putin renting the nKPA forces and buying north Korean ammunition and weapons, echoing the "anti-collapists misinformed rhetoric that there are those who predict regime collapse because of food shortages is not just wrong it is dangerous. Internal instability and the conditions of regime collapse could certainly lead to war. But those who understand the causes of regime collapse know it will not be caused by food shortages. It will be because the Party/regime can no longer govern all the northern territory from Pyongyang,combined with the loss of coherency and support of the military. But the most dangerous statement is that the DPRK is more stable than ever. Either this was not reviewed by the intelligence community and if the intelligence community provided this assessment, then we are certainly in trouble. The indicators and warnings of threats to the regime and the potential for resistance and subsequent internal instability are blinking red and the danger is growing. The DPRK is not more stable than ever.
5. A comment was made about information and knowledge of the outside world in the north. It was said that only the elite have knowledge of the outside world and the Korean people in the north are isolated and do not receive any significant information. I think it would be useful for leaders in Korea and Hawaii to meet with escapees from the north and gain an understanding of how they are getting information from the outside and the impact it is having on the Korean people. This would have been the perfect opportunity to emphasise the importance of VOA and RFA but instead 1980s perspectives on isolation and information were provided.
6. Lastly, (and another of my biases). In both written statements there were no references to Special Operations, MISO or PSYOP or influence operations in general. However both were asked about Special Operations in Korea and throughout INDOPACOM by more than one senator.
Open/Closed: To receive testimony on the posture of United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2026 and the Future Years Defense Program | United States Senate Committee on Armed Services
Witnesses
- Admiral Samuel J. Paparo Jr., USN
- Commander, United States Indo-Pacific Command
- Download Testimony
- General Xavier T. Brunson, USA
- Commander, United Nations Command/ Combined Forces Command/ United States Forces Korea
- Download Testimony
2. INDOPACOM CO Paparo Outlines Risk of Western Pacific Conflict
These are the first two commanders who really appear to take a holistic approach to the strategic and operational problems we face in the INDOPACIFIC rather than stovepipe them. They acknowledge the interrelationship and interconnectedness of our strategic challenges which I think is the only way to overcome the strategic dilemmas. And not only do these commanders take a joint and combined approach but a whole of government approach as well.
Excerpts:
Gen. Xavier Brunson, top commander in Korea, said Tokyo and Seoul would examine that option if the U.S. military commitment to the peninsula and Northeast Asia and Taiwan were scaled back.
Paparo added, “with the loss of the force on the Korean Peninsula, there’s a higher probability that he (North Korea) would invade.” Cutting the force significantly below the 28,000 authorized “would reduce our ability to prevail” there.
Seoul makes “significant contributions beyond the Korean peninsula” to Indo-Pacific security, he said.
Brunson in his opening statement, said if large cuts were made deterring North Korea aggression and holding back Russia and China in the region “becomes problematic.”
“They are a critical portion of helping the INDOPACOM command see, sense and understand in the North and to deter a great many adversaries,” Brunson said in answer to a question.
...
Paparo also noted that the Trump administration’s decision to scale back or eliminate USAID would benefit China.
“I continue to advocate for it,” he said. Otherwise, Beijing “would seize” the opportunity to win more influence by responding to natural disasters and humanitarian crises.
INDOPACOM CO Paparo Outlines Risk of Western Pacific Conflict - USNI News
news.usni.org · by John Grady · April 10, 2025
Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, delivers a keynote speech during the Vietnam War Veterans Day ceremony at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific in Honolulu, March 28, 2025. US Navy Photo
War in the Western Pacific would shatter global economies, run the risk of spreading nuclear conflict and leave half a million “deaths of despair” in its wake, the senior American commander in the Indo-Pacific told the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday.
When asked why Americans should care about Taiwan’s future, Adm. Samuel Paparo said closing the waterway separating it from China, one of the world’s major trading channels, could be more devastating than the Great Depression in the 1930s globally. It would also expose the United States’ dependence on Taipei for semiconductor production, essential to modernizing and growing the domestic economy.
Chinese aggressive military actions toward the self-governing island have increased by 300 percent. As he has noted in the past, these are “not exercises but rehearsals” for a possible forcible takeover.
War in the region Paparo said, could produce “a 25 percent reduction in GDP [gross domestic product] in Asia, an effect of 10 to 12 per GDP reduction in the United States of America, unemployment spiking at 7 to 10 percent” above normal levels “and 500,000 excess deaths of despair.”
Even a successful American intervention “would halve that impact, so still a grave result” and “a lot of human misery.”
The tenuous nature of alliances and partnerships would also be at stake, he warned. “Some of the states” in the Indo-Pacific “would submit … to China’s long-range goal of setting the rules of the world.”
Others, who “would never submit” to Chinese threats, could embark on their own nuclear weapons programs, escalating the risks in any conflict. Paparo and Army Gen. Xavier Brunson, top commander in Korea, said Tokyo and Seoul would examine that option if the U.S. military commitment to the peninsula and Northeast Asia and Taiwan were scaled back.
Paparo added, “with the loss of the force on the Korean Peninsula, there’s a higher probability that he (North Korea) would invade.” Cutting the force significantly below the 28,000 authorized “would reduce our ability to prevail” there.
Seoul makes “significant contributions beyond the Korean peninsula” to Indo-Pacific security, he said.
Brunson in his opening statement, said if large cuts were made deterring North Korea aggression and holding back Russia and China in the region “becomes problematic.”
“They are a critical portion of helping the INDOPACOM command see, sense and understand in the North and to deter a great many adversaries,” Brunson said in answer to a question.
“[North Korean leader Kim Jong Un]’s intentions could shift with the wind and he’s built a military that is designed to impose tremendous costs directly on South Korea,” Paparo said. “It’s very important we maintain that deterrent posture.”
Looking at ways to bolster Indo-Pacific security, Paparo said the command could use more counter C5R [Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance] capability in cyber, space and counter-space and long-range fires and effects that endanger an adversary’s platforms and systems.
“Sustainment is what won the Second World War,” he said. “You can’t AI [artificial intelligence] your way out of material deficiency.” He pointed the committee’s attention to shipbuilding lags in delivery and construction, labor shortages, the need for the command to have a diversified tanker fleet and having “the lift capability we can order in harm’s way.”
Paparo said the command “is moving in that direction” of using unmanned systems “in bringing smaller payloads” to smaller, more dispersed forces.
On the larger question of the state of the Navy’s amphibious fleet, he added it is “under-resourced and not ready enough.” Those 32 ships carry Marines, their equipment and aircraft.
In its December finding, the GAO wrote, “the Navy must maintain a fleet of 31 operational ships to meet these needs. But half of the fleet is in poor condition and some ships have been unavailable for years at a time. To save money, the Navy proposed early retirement for some ships and cancelled critical maintenance on them. But the Navy is still relying on these ships—which haven’t been well-maintained—while it waits for new ones to be built.”
At this week’s Sea-Air-Space symposium, the Navy announced a pilot program aimed at improving amphibious ship readiness that will kick off this year.
As USNI News reported, under the program, the Navy will complete the proposed maintenance package 500 days before the start of the so-called “signature availability” and award the contract 360 days before the overhaul begins, Vice Adm. Brendan McLane, commander of Naval Surface Force, said.
The hope is that knowing what the work package is more than one year in advance and having more time to plan the availability will drive down the number of delay days on the amphibious ship maintenance.
The Navy’s target is to have 80 percent of its surface fleet, submarines and aircraft ready for deployment to an immediate crisis.
Paparo also noted that the Trump administration’s decision to scale back or eliminate USAID would benefit China.
“I continue to advocate for it,” he said. Otherwise, Beijing “would seize” the opportunity to win more influence by responding to natural disasters and humanitarian crises.
Related
news.usni.org · by John Grady · April 10, 2025
3. US Commander in India(INDOPACOM): “If US Forces in Korea are reduced, there is a high possibility of North Korea invading”
This is a Google translation of an RFA report (which required the headline edit from India to INDOPACOM)
US Commander in India(INDOPACOM): “If US Forces in Korea are reduced, there is a high possibility of North Korea invading”
https://www.rfa.org/korean/in-focus/2025/04/10/north-korea-united-states-forces/
WASHINGTON-Kim Ji-soo kimjis@rfa.org
2025.04.10
Admiral Samuel Purparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, speaks during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on the 10th. (Capture from Senate Armed Services Committee hearing video)
Admiral Samuel Purparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, speaks during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on the 10th. (Capture from Senate Armed Services Committee hearing video)
Anchor: At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing held in Washington D.C. on the 10th, US Indo-Pacific Command Commander Samuel Purfaro predicted that if US forces in Korea withdraw or are reduced, the possibility of North Korea invading the South will increase. US Forces Korea Commander Brunson, who also appeared as a witness that day, also expressed a negative stance on reducing US forces in Korea. This is reporter Kim Ji-soo reporting.
Admiral Samuel Purparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the 10th that North Korea is more likely to invade if the Korean Peninsula has lost military power, that is, if U.S. forces stationed in Korea are no longer on the peninsula.
When asked about drastically reducing the US military presence on the Korean Peninsula, he emphasized that “it would essentially reduce our ability to overwhelm the enemy.”
[Commander Perfaro] Our ability to win a conflict will be diminished.
In his opening remarks, Commander Perparo expressed concern that “North Korea’s development of advanced nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles poses a direct threat to the U.S. homeland and its allies, and is deepening cooperation with Russia.”
He also assessed that “as military cooperation between Russia and China expands, its complexity is growing, and the cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia has established the Pacific Fleet of China and Russia as a growing business.”
Commander of US Forces Korea Xavier Brunson, who also appeared as a witness that day, then expressed his negative stance on reducing the number of US troops stationed in Korea.
When asked about the US military strategy on the Korean Peninsula, Commander of US Forces Korea General Brunson said, “Reducing troops could be a problem.”
[Commander Brunson] The drawdown could be problematic. We have the potential to make Russia pay in the East Sea, the potential to make China pay in the West Sea, and the deterrence against North Korea that is working now.
He explained, “USFK plays an important role and has played the same role for over 75 years.”
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General Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, speaks during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on the 10th.
Commander of US Forces Korea Xavier Brunson speaks at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C. on the 10th. (Capture from Senate Armed Services Committee hearing video)
Brunson: “North Korean Soldiers Deployed to Russia Ideologically Influenced”
On that day, Commander Brunson pointed out that “North Korea is building a sustained nuclear weapons program and has a modernized military force of more than 1.3 million troops equipped with Russian-made equipment.”
“North Korea’s cyber threats are becoming increasingly sophisticated, as evidenced by the recent theft of approximately $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency,” he said.
However, when asked about the issue, he dismissed the concerns, saying, “One of the things North Korea is gaining from its talks with Russia is the ability to evade sanctions, and (cryptocurrency) theft is just part of that ability.”
Again, in response to a question about North Korean citizens’ access to information, Commander Brunson said, “If you look at the troops that are sent to Ukraine, the troops that are fighting are tied to that regime and are completely steeped in its ideology,” adding, “I think only the elite in North Korea know what’s going on there.”
Meanwhile, at the executive order signing ceremony on the 9th, when asked whether he had any plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops stationed overseas, President Trump responded, “It depends,” and said, “We pay for our military in Europe, but we don’t get much in return. The same goes for Korea.”
Editor Park Jae-woo
4. US Forces Korea commander defends troop levels amid talk of cuts
I thought both commanders did a good job on this by living up to their requirement to provide Congress with their frank and objective views. I expect if there is an order for cuts both commanders will speak truth to power.
US Forces Korea commander defends troop levels amid talk of cuts
Defense News · by Leo Shane III · April 10, 2025
One day after President Donald Trump suggested he might reduce the U.S. military footprint in South Korea, the head of U.S. Forces Korea testified that current troop levels are needed for pressing missions and challenges in the Pacific region.
“The troops that we have in the Republic of Korea are responsible wholly for preserving peace on the peninsula and in the region,” Army Gen. Xavier Brunson, who also serves as head of Combined Forces Command, told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
“They are a critical component to ballistic missile defense in the region. They are critical to helping Indo-Pacific Command see, sense and understand threats to the north and to deter a great many adversaries.”
Currently, roughly 28,500 U.S. military personnel are stationed in South Korea, working with both regional military partners and United Nations countries. The Defense Department has had at least 25,000 American troops deployed continuously there since the early 1950s.
RELATED
Top general recommends US maintain current troop levels in Europe
The commander's comments come amid concerns from Congress that the Pentagon is considering reducing the number of U.S. troops on the continent.
But Trump and his advisers have questioned the value of the long-term presence of American military forces at a number of overseas locations. During an Oval Office ceremony on Wednesday, Trump was asked about reducing the number of American troops stationed in Europe, and injected Korea into his answer.
“We pay for U.S. military in Europe, and we don’t get reimbursed by much. South Korea, too,” he said. “It will be one of the things that we discuss that is unrelated to trade, but we’ll make it part of the trade conversation. It would be nice to wrap it all up together.”
At the start of Thursday’s hearing, Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Jack Reed, D-R.I., noted “there are rumors that the Defense department will direct a reduction of U.S. presence in South Korea, or retask these forces to focus on the threat from China” instead of North Korea.
Brunson did not address any of the force level change discussions directly, but said that from a military strategy standpoint, “we need to remember there is diplomacy and defense on the Korean Peninsula currently.”
He urged “strategic clarity” with any changes in force posture in the region, to ensure allies and adversaries understand America’s commitment to stability in the region.
Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told lawmakers at the hearing that the forces stationed in Korea benefit not only that country but also numerous other allies in the region.
“They make significant contributions outside the Korean peninsula, including in their participation in multilateral exercises,” he said.
Defense Department officials have not announced any formal plans to begin force reductions or significant posture changes in the region. Trump did not provide any additional details on when a review of troop levels in Europe or the Pacific may begin.
About Leo Shane III
Leo covers Congress, Veterans Affairs and the White House for Military Times. He has covered Washington, D.C. since 2004, focusing on military personnel and veterans policies. His work has earned numerous honors, including a 2009 Polk award, a 2010 National Headliner Award, the IAVA Leadership in Journalism award and the VFW News Media award.
5. Seoul Prefers Investment, Not Confrontation On Tariff War
Pragmatism in Seoul. But will the administration give them credit for this position and actions?
Recall that in 2023 South Korea was the leading country of foreign direct investment in the US and it likely will be for 2024 when the statistics are released.
Excerpts:
The South Korean business community has enough experience mobilizing capital and technological know-how to undertake industrial shipbuilding projects, according to a local business analyst close to a giant conglomerate. One official with Han’s office has been quoted as saying South Korea hopes to participate in the US$44-billion Alaskan LNG extraction project and building a 1,287-kilometer pipeline to transport cooled liquid gas to South Korea.
South Korea’s Hanhwa group is already moving into the defense industry sector, producing tanks and howitzers for Ukraine, including setting up military industrial plants in Poland.
With these business-oriented perspectives, Seoul appears unlikely to cooperate with China and Japan in forging a trilateral free-trade bloc that would resist negative impacts from Trump’s controversial tariffs. The trilateral meeting of top trade ministers that met in Seoul last month was held for the first time in five years, triggering suspicions that it could develop into an anti-tariff alliance among East Asia’s biggest exporters.
The meeting in Seoul stressed the need for creating a free-trade zone involving the three Asian trading giants, but it appeared more rhetorical than concrete. Although the top trade officials from the three countries vowed the need for promoting a free trade regime, the trio was locked into too many conflicting political interests to give them enough incentive to make it an anti-Trump trade alliance.
Seoul Prefers Investment, Not Confrontation On Tariff War
Steel mills, pipelines auto factories to employ Americans
https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/south-korea-prefers-investment-not-confrontation-tariff-war?utm
Apr 11, 2025
∙ Paid
By: Shim Jae Hoon
Han, in the hot seat, gets on the phone. Photo from Yonhap
US President Donald Trump’s chaotic, ever-shifting tariff war couldn’t have come at a worse moment for South Korea, which is in the middle of a crisis stemming from ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol’s illegal martial law declaration, resulting in his impeachment. It is a crisis that Seoul hopes to at least partly ameliorate via US-bound Korean investment, which has been increasing sharply as trade tensions have grown. Korean companies have invested US$114 billion in the US over the past three years, creating tens of thousands of American jobs.
But the administration of Acting President Han Duck Soo, a veteran technocrat with ample experience dealing with economic and diplomatic tussles with Washington, is responding to the crisis with equanimity, with a trade delegation already in Washington talking with US officials. Han’s expert handling of the situation has won so much admiration that President Donald Trump, in his phone conversation with Han, couldn’t resist asking if he would be running for the next presidential election in Seoul.
Seoul’s export surplus with the US has grown year by year, with cars, semiconductors, and electronic goods claiming the bulk of shipments. Merchandise exports to the US last year rose to US$127.8 billion, with the trade surplus running to US$55.7 billion. Over the past few decades, Seoul’s shipments of cars, electronic goods, chips, and industrial components have climbed to the status of leading products destined for the US markets. Cars claimed nearly half of exports, while Korean-invested companies in Mexico are also becoming a major staging point for South Korean cars and other electronic goods.
In his late-night telephone talks with Han on April 8, Trump described surpluses from Korea as “tremendous and unsustainable.” It was Donald Trump’s typical hyperbole but Seoul officials have found it increasingly difficult to justify the mounting surpluses, although at the same time, there is no doubt that South Korea is also defensively becoming a massive importer of US goods, especially farm goods, under the free trade deal signed with Washington. South Korea, for example, has shot up as the biggest US beef importer, with farm imports virtually decimating Korea’s agricultural sector.
That Seoul’s trade with China is steadily moving back to the US is a reflection of growing political tension. In 2024, South Korea's exports to China reached around US$133 billion, making China the largest destination for South Korean trade goods. The total value of US goods imports from Korea was US$131.5 billion.
Another area of contention has been the Trump administration’s pressure for increased burden-sharing on the cost of maintaining the 28,500 US ground troops in South Korea. President Trump has demanded a nine-fold increase in the burden-sharing cost, from about US$1.2 billion this year to a whopping US$10 billion beginning next year. Insisting that South Korea is what he called a “money machine,” Trump is demanding that a whopping increase for the upkeep of US troops.
The linkage of trade surplus with defense cost-sharing is not limited to South Korea. Japan has also come under growing pressure to increase its share of US military upkeep, with US forces in Japan numbering 55,000 sprawled all over Japan. Like Han, Japan’s Premier Ishiba has expressed hope of covering the 24 percent tariff increase with more investments rather than a higher burden-sharing cost. Similarly, Seoul hopes to replace the 25 percent tariffs with more capital investments.
Seoul, unofficially, is offering a massive scale of investment over the next few years to offset its trade surplus. For example, Kia Motor Group has pledged a US$22 billion investment to expand and upgrade its auto plants in several US states. In his telephone talks with Trump on the night of April 8, Han also expressed readiness to invest in Alaska’s LNG (liquefied natural gas) extraction and pipeline project. In the last few decades, South Korea has been a major importer of LNG energy from the Middle East, and Seoul is prepared to join in the extensive acquisition of these energy resources.
In his telephone talks with Trump, Han is also said to have mentioned a potential area of cooperation in the US shipbuilding market. Seoul’s business community regards the US shipbuilding sector as having great potential for capital and technology cooperation. Some Korean shipbuilding giants, such as Hyundai, are already involved in maintenance, repair, and overhauling (MRO) of American military and merchant marine vessels. In order to boost US naval power, the Congress has revised the relevant laws to make it possible for foreign shipbuilders, especially from Korea, to build and maintain more US naval ships in the US. For this purpose, South Korean companies are looking to acquire shipyards in the US.
Acting President Han, a Harvard-trained economist, is in favor of deepening the US-South Korean economic alliance through more investments and business collaboration, rather than allowing tariff disputes to sour bilateral political relations. “We want realistic cooperative relations through investments rather than getting bogged down in political disputes over high tariffs,” one of Han’s officials has been quoted as saying.
The South Korean business community has enough experience mobilizing capital and technological know-how to undertake industrial shipbuilding projects, according to a local business analyst close to a giant conglomerate. One official with Han’s office has been quoted as saying South Korea hopes to participate in the US$44-billion Alaskan LNG extraction project and building a 1,287-kilometer pipeline to transport cooled liquid gas to South Korea.
South Korea’s Hanhwa group is already moving into the defense industry sector, producing tanks and howitzers for Ukraine, including setting up military industrial plants in Poland.
With these business-oriented perspectives, Seoul appears unlikely to cooperate with China and Japan in forging a trilateral free-trade bloc that would resist negative impacts from Trump’s controversial tariffs. The trilateral meeting of top trade ministers that met in Seoul last month was held for the first time in five years, triggering suspicions that it could develop into an anti-tariff alliance among East Asia’s biggest exporters.
The meeting in Seoul stressed the need for creating a free-trade zone involving the three Asian trading giants, but it appeared more rhetorical than concrete. Although the top trade officials from the three countries vowed the need for promoting a free trade regime, the trio was locked into too many conflicting political interests to give them enough incentive to make it an anti-Trump trade alliance.
6. Top General Says North Korea Continuing Weapons Development, Becoming More Isolated
I have to strongly and partially disagree with the General.
While he is stating facts I have to challenge the interpretation and assessment.
Yes the regime is seeking greater isolation to protect itself (yes it uses sovereignty but it is only concerned with the survival of the Kim family regime and not survival of the nation-state and it is certainly not concerned with the welfare of the Korean people). Yes, Kim has stated that he has given up on "peaceful unification." But this should not lead to the conclusion that its military with its developing advanced capabilities and nuclear weapons is purely for defense and for the protection of its sovereignty. That frankly is a restatement of the north themes and messages from the Propaganda and Agitation Department. They want us to believe that it is only concerned with defense and because of that its nuclear weapons and 4th largest Army in the world is justified and required. The proper assessment is that the regime has not given up on domination of the Korean peninsula. It is not actually accepting "two Koreas." Accepting that belief is very dangerous.
The Korean people in the north know very well their plight. All you have to do is read the reporting of Radio Free Asia from its sources inside north Korea as well as interview with escapees. We can also assess that the extreme crackdowns on everything from foreign currency to market activities to the attempted control of all information are indications of the growing threat of information that provides knowledge of the outside. Kim sees the threats and is doing everything he can to defend against them (e.g, increased ideological training in every aspect of society from the party to the schools to the military).
This is why Kim Jong Un is working so hard to "externalize" the threats. He uses the perceived threat of invasion from the South as justification for the suffering and sacrifice of the Korean people. The increased threats and provocations are not only in support of the experimental political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies they are required to keep the population in check and prevent resistance to the regime. When Kim increases these activities it is likely in response tot h3e threats to him that he sees but that are difficult for us to discern from the outside.
I could go on.
I recommend the General and his staff (and anyone interested in the Korean situation) read the work of Robert Collins to understand the internal instability challenge and the indicators of instability.
Pattern of Collapse in North Korea
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2024/04/11/pattern-collapse-north-korea/
And of course one of the important reasons we need to be concerned with internal instability and threats to the regime is that conditions that lead to internal instability and regime collapse could lead to Kim 's decision to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force as the only path remaining to ensure regime survival.
I would also commend the reports at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) for an understanding of the conditions inside north Korea.
Excerpts:
Additionally, Brunson said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's leadership has shifted from a focus on the reunification of the Korean peninsula to declaring a position of sovereignty.
"This change is evidenced by the hardening of [North Korea's] southern border, the rejection of reunification discussions, and the destruction of unification monuments and buildings," he said.
When asked whether everyday North Koreans are cognizant of the oppression by the current regime under Kim, Bruson said that — based on recent observances in Ukraine — he doesn't believe so.
"I would fully answer that by looking at the forces [North Korea] sent to Ukraine ... [They are] absolutely, dyed-in-the-wool ideologues who are tied to — and believe in — that regime that exists there," Brunson said, adding he doesn't believe most North Koreans are aware of the situation due to the government's strict control on outside communications.
Top General Says North Korea Continuing Weapons Development, Becoming More Isolated
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4152129/top-general-says-north-korea-continuing-weapons-development-becoming-more-isola/
April 10, 2025 | By Matthew Olay, DOD News |
During a Senate Armed Services Committee posture hearing today in Washington, U.S. Forces Korea's commander testified that North Korea is continuing to develop its weapons program while growing more isolated.
Army Gen. Xavier T. Brunson told the committee that, in 2024, North Korea launched 47 ballistic missiles while focusing on advancing its cruise missile and hypersonic glide vehicle research and development programs.
"In the coming year, we expect [North Korea] to further develop hypersonic and multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicle capabilities to complete [their government's] goals," Brunson testified.
He also said North Korea is continuing to build its nuclear weapons program and that the country boasts a 1.3-million-man military force that is being equipped, modernized and augmented by Russia.
Many of those munitions and troops have been exported to Russia over the past year and a half, which demonstrates North Korea's ability to provide external support to other countries while advancing domestic capabilities at home, Brunson added.
He said North Korea also poses an increasingly sophisticated cyberthreat and recently stole approximately $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency.
Additionally, Brunson said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's leadership has shifted from a focus on the reunification of the Korean peninsula to declaring a position of sovereignty.
"This change is evidenced by the hardening of [North Korea's] southern border, the rejection of reunification discussions, and the destruction of unification monuments and buildings," he said.
When asked whether everyday North Koreans are cognizant of the oppression by the current regime under Kim, Bruson said that — based on recent observances in Ukraine — he doesn't believe so.
"I would fully answer that by looking at the forces [North Korea] sent to Ukraine ... [They are] absolutely, dyed-in-the-wool ideologues who are tied to — and believe in — that regime that exists there," Brunson said, adding he doesn't believe most North Koreans are aware of the situation due to the government's strict control on outside communications.
Brunson said that it would be unwise to reduce the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula in the face of North Korea continuing to develop its conventional and nuclear weapons programs.
Reducing the force would be problematic, Brunson told lawmakers, noting that what U.S. Forces Korea provides "is the potential to impose cost in the East Sea to Russia, the potential to impose cost in the West Sea to China, and to continue to deter against North Korea as it currently stands."
He said his focus is now on the capabilities necessary to prepare for, deter and then prevail in conflict, should it occur.
7. U.S. military leaders negative about USFK troop reduction
When we read and listen to the testimony of these senior leaders www should recall their confirmation hearings and what they pledge to do. That is to provide their frank assessments to Congress when asked regardless of administration policy. Both General Brunson and Admiral Paparo are living up to that pledge here.
I would love to be a fly on the wall for their conversations with the new USD(P). The question is will their decades of professional experience and knowledge be able to help them educate Mr. Colby regarding the strategic realities as they understand them.
(LEAD) U.S. military leaders negative about USFK troop reduction | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · April 11, 2025
(ATTN: ADDS more remarks in paras 12-16)
By Song Sang-ho and Cho Joon-hyung
WASHINGTON, April 10 (Yonhap) -- U.S. military leaders in the Indo-Pacific presented negative views about the idea of a U.S. troop reduction in South Korea on Thursday, amid lingering concerns that the Trump administration could seek a troop cut or realignment to focus more on threats from China.
During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo Jr. warned the withdrawal or reduction of American troops from South Korea would raise a "higher" likelihood of a North Korean invasion, while U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson said a troop reduction would be "problematic."
As U.S. President Donald Trump is charging ahead with his "America First" agenda, speculation has persisted that his administration could look to curtail overseas military involvement and call for allies to take greater responsibilities for their own security.
"With the loss of the force on the Korean Peninsula, there's a higher probability that he (North Korea) would invade," Paparo said.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo Jr. speaks during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing at the Capitol in Washington on April 10, 2025 in this photo captured from the committee's website. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
In response to a question regarding whether a significant reduction of the U.S. military presence in Korea is good or bad, the admiral said, "Inherently, it would reduce our ability to prevail in conflict."
USFK Commander Brunson, who also leads South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command and U.N. Command, also struck a negative note.
"To reduce the force becomes problematic ... But what we do provide there, sir, is the potential to impose cost in the East Sea to Russia, the potential to impose costs in the West Sea to China, and to continue to deter against North Korea, as it currently stands," Brunson said.
"I'm trying to focus right now on the capabilities necessary to do all those things that we might participate routinely in the campaign ..., which is to prepare, deter and then prevail in conflict should it come. But the forces in Korea play an important role. In over 75 years, they've done the same."
U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson speaks during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing at the Capitol in Washington on April 10, 2025 in this photo captured from the committee's website. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
His remarks suggested that the role of USFK is crucial in not only deterring North Korean threats, but also keeping China and Russia in check.
In his written statement, Brunson highlighted the geographically important location of South Korea.
"The ROK sits at the heart of Northeast Asia, which remains a critical region among great powers and regional actors," he said. ROK is short for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.
In his opening remarks, the USFK commander pointed out that the return on America's investment of its troops in South Korea is "not measured only in dollars, but in terms of access, forward-basing, enduring partnerships and deterrence" -- a mention that apparently underscores the importance of the U.S.' alliance with South Korea.
His remarks came a day after Trump said that the United States has not been "reimbursed" sufficiently for its defense support for South Korea and European allies, hinting that the U.S. will make defense cost-sharing a part of negotiations for a "package" deal with allies and partners over trade and other matters.
The general also thanked South Koreans for their support for the alliance
"I'd also like to thank the Korean people right now for their continued resilience through challenges and hard times," he said.
"I'd like to thank them for their dedication to our alliance, and I'd also like to thank them for their continued provision of an environment that allows us to build, sustain and retain the readiness that we develop on the peninsula."
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · April 11, 2025
8. Trump says U.S. may buy 'top-of-the-line' ships from 'close' countries
We need a JAROKUS (Japan, ROK, US) shipbuilding consortium.
(LEAD) Trump says U.S. may buy 'top-of-the-line' ships from 'close' countries | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · April 11, 2025
(ATTN: ADDS photo, more info in paras 7-8)
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, April 10 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that the United States may purchase advanced ships from "close" countries, as he reaffirmed his commitment to rebuilding America's shipbuilding industry.
Trump made the remarks during a Cabinet meeting as the shipbuilding industry has emerged as a key area of cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. amid concerns that China's shipbuilding capacity has overwhelmingly grown compared with that of the U.S.
"We are going to be rebuilding our shipbuilding business. We may order ... would have to go to Congress for this, but we may buy some ships from other countries that we're close to and that do great jobs with ships, but we're going to start the process of rebuilding," Trump said.
"We don't really essentially build ships anymore, which is ridiculous. It's going to be a very big business for us in the not-too-distant future, but in the meantime, we have countries that do very well at building ships, and we'll be dealing with those countries, and we may be ordering top-of-the-line ships from those countries," he added.
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) responds to a question from the news media during a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington on April 10, 2025, in this photo released by EPA. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
Trump made the remarks after National Security Adviser Mike Waltz noted that Chinese shipyards received 1,700 shipbuilding orders last year, whereas American shipyards got only five.
"Under your leadership, like so many other industries, we are going to revitalize and make shipbuilding and maritime (industry) great again," Waltz said.
Meanwhile, South Korea's Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyun-dong met Ian Bennitt, senior director for maritime and industrial capacity at the White House, to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral shipbuilding cooperation, according to Cho's office.
During a phone call Tuesday, Trump and South Korea's acting President Han Duck-soo discussed cooperation in the shipbuilding industry.
South Korea's Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyun-dong (R) meets Ian Bennitt, senior director for maritime and industrial capacity, at the White House in Washington on April 10, 2025, in this photo released by Cho's office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · April 11, 2025
9. U.S. shows willingness to handle tariff talks smoothly with S. Korea: trade minister
An optimistic assessment that I hope is accurate for the sake of the ROK/US alliance.
U.S. shows willingness to handle tariff talks smoothly with S. Korea: trade minister | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · April 11, 2025
INCHEON, April 11 (Yonhap) -- The United States has expressed a willingness to handle the tariff negotiations with South Korea and Japan as smoothly as possible, Seoul's Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo said Friday, describing the U.S.' openness as a key outcome of his visit to Washington.
"We held various discussions aimed at ensuring smooth trade relations with the Trump administration," Cheong told reporters at Incheon International Airport upon returning from his two-day visit to Washington.
Cheong's trip marked the first of its kind by a senior South Korean trade official since the Donald Trump administration announced country-by-country reciprocal tariffs, including 25 percent duties for South Korea, that took effect this week.
Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo speaks to reporters at Incheon International Airport, about 35 kilometers west of Seoul, on April 11, 2025, as he returned from a trip to Washington, D.C., for tariff negotiations with the United States. (Yonhap)
During his stay in Washington, Cheong met with U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer and other key officials to discuss the tariff issue.
"The biggest achievement of the visit was establishing a framework for item-by-item negotiations, particularly concerning steel and automobiles," Cheong said, adding that Washington showed a willingness to reach an agreement with both Seoul and Tokyo in an "amicable" manner.
He also emphasized the importance of identifying the appropriate U.S. agency as Seoul's main negotiation counterpart.
"Determining which U.S. agency would be our dialogue partner was crucial," he said, noting that Greer will primarily lead the negotiations on behalf of Washington.
Cheong added that he thoroughly conveyed South Korea's position on the issue of reciprocal tariffs.
"Greer actively listened to our stance, and shared the U.S. perspective and expectations for South Korea," he said, describing the nature of the talks.
On Wednesday (U.S. time), President Donald Trump imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, saying that negotiations with countries requesting meetings over tariff issues would begin "immediately."
At the same time, he warned China against retaliatory measures, raising tariffs against China to 125 percent.
In retaliation, China announced plans to raise tariffs on all U.S. goods from 84 percent to as much as 125 percent starting Saturday.
Regarding concerns that a potential U.S.-China trade conflict could negatively impact South Korean businesses, Cheong said the government would work closely with local companies to find optimal response strategies.
"We will actively seek support measures through close consultation with affected businesses," he said.
khj@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · April 11, 2025
10. South Korea establishes ties with Syria, a longstanding North Korea ally
South Korea is gaining influence on the Go/Baduk board by placing another "stone" to contest territorial influence with north Korea.
South Korea establishes ties with Syria, a longstanding North Korea ally
Move following Assad’s fall ends a decades-long diplomatic freeze and undercuts DPRK’s position in Middle East
https://www.nknews.org/2025/04/south-korea-establishes-ties-with-syria-a-longstanding-north-korea-ally/
Jooheon Kim April 11, 2025
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul shakes hands with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus on April 10, 2025. | Image: Ministry of Foreign Affairs
South Korea formally established relations with Syria on Thursday, marking the end of a decades-long diplomatic freeze stemming from Damascus’ long-time alliance with North Korea.
ROK Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and his Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani signed the joint communique establishing ties during a meeting in Damascus, according to Seoul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The breakthrough comes amid a dramatic shift in Syria’s political landscape following the ouster of longtime ruler Bashar Assad by rebel forces in December, depriving Pyongyang of a key ally in the region.
The normalization also comes after Seoul established formal ties with Cuba last year, a move that undercut North Korea’s relationship with another longstanding ally.
“Pyongyang is becoming increasingly isolated on the international stage, while Seoul continues to expand its diplomatic reach. We saw this trend last year with Cuba, and now Syria — both traditional North Korean allies — moving to engage with South Korea,” Lee Sang-hyun, a senior research fellow at Sejong Institute, told NK News.
“From North Korea’s perspective, this signals a shrinking sphere of influence and reinforces the perception that South Korea is outpacing it diplomatically.”
Still, Lee said Pyongyang is unlikely to respond forcefully to ROK-Syrian ties given its longstanding relationship with Damascus.
Cho emphasized during this week’s meeting in Damascus that Syria’s stability and prosperity are vital not only to regional peace in the Middle East but also to global security. He offered to share South Korea’s development expertise to support Syria’s rebuilding efforts and emergency aid, while raising the possibility of ROK companies participating in future reconstruction projects.
Al-Shaibani welcomed South Korea’s overture and expressed hope for Seoul’s support in easing international sanctions on Syria and proposed dialogue on ROK contributions to reconstruction.
Cho later met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, congratulating Damascus on the formation of a new inclusive government. He also underscored the importance of Syria meeting international expectations, including eliminating chemical weapons and maintaining a firm stance against extremism.
Al-Sharaa, who assumed leadership after leading the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faction in toppling Assad in December, described South Korea’s support as crucial to Syria’s rebuilding from the over decade-long civil war that left much of the country in ruins.
This week’s agreement follows a South Korean delegation’s visit to Syria in February to gauge the new leadership’s intentions, seeking to capitalize on the collapse of the Assad regime.
The Assad regime had maintained close ties with Pyongyang since 1966, with Syria serving as a pillar of DPRK policy in the Middle East. Their friendship saw North Korea provide military and other support to Damascus over the years, including reportedly supplying chemical weapons and helping build a nuclear reactor.
The two countries appear to have had an implicit agreement that North Korea would not establish diplomatic relations with Israel and that Syria would not do so with South Korea.
But the current state of North Korea-Syria ties remains unclear following Assad’s fall. The DPRK Embassy rushed to evacuate personnel from Damascus after rebels captured the city, and state media has yet to acknowledge Assad’s ouster.
After Thursday’s joint communique, South Korea now maintains official ties with all U.N. member states except for the DPRK. Including non-member entities such as the Holy See, Niue and the Cook Islands, Seoul has diplomatic ties with 194 countries.
Edited by Bryan Betts
11. Yoon continues to wield influence on party, election
Yoon continues to wield influence on party, election
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/politics/20250411/yoon-continues-to-wield-influence-on-party-election
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Former President Yoon Suk Yeol raises his fist as he is surrounded by supporters gathered near the presidential residence in Seoul, Friday. Yoon left the residence after his five-year term was cut short by impeachment. Yonhap
By Jung Min-ho
- Published Apr 11, 2025 4:33 pm KST
- Updated Apr 11, 2025 6:05 pm KST
Ousted leader leaves presidential office
Impeachment has ended the three-year presidency of Yoon Suk Yeol ― but not his political ambition ― as he continues to meet conservative political figures and send indirect messages targeting his supporters.
Criticism and concerns are rising that the former president, who left the presidential residence on Friday evening to return to his civilian life, is expected to continue to interfere in the upcoming snap election ― by playing the role of a “regent” instead of remaining low-profile after his martial law declaration pitched the country into political turmoil.
"I will find a new path for the country and the people as a citizen," Yoon said through his lawyer as he left the residence. "I will do everything in my power to build the free and prosperous Korea that I and many people have dreamed of together."
He then expressed his gratitude for those who had supported him during his political crisis, initiated by his decision to impose a martial law decree, which eventually led to his ouster. Before heading to his private home in southern Seoul, he got off the car and shook hands with and even hugged some of the supporters gathered there to meet him.
He also thanked his former staff, including former chief of staff Chung Jin-suk, telling them that he was "sorry" that he could not finish what was supposed to be a five-year term.
Former President Yoon Suk Yeol embraces a young supporter as he leaves the presidential residence in Seoul, Friday. Yonhap
In the days that followed the Constitutional Court’s ruling that removed him from office, Yoon met several PPP members. They included the party's interim leader Rep. Kwon Young-se, floor leader Rep. Kweon Seong-dong and Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun, as well as Rep. Na Kyung-won and North Gyeongsang Province Gov. Lee Cheol-woo, who have both announced their bid for the presidency.
He even met Jeon Han-gil, a history instructor-turned-YouTuber who led pro-Yoon rallies before the former president's ouster.
Yoon also spoke on the phone with Kim Moon-soo, who served as his labor minister, on the day Kim announced his resignation to join the presidential race.
Few believe that Yoon will stop these efforts after leaving the presidential residence.
There are signs he will continue to wield his influence over the future of the People Power Party (PPP), including the primary for determining its presidential candidate, as he told one of his loyalists that he will try his best to “help our party win” in the upcoming presidential race.
However, while some PPP members seek Yoon's influence, many others also worry that these activities by the impeached, disgraced leader could destroy any remaining chance for the conservative party to win the June 3 election.
For the PPP, Yoon's activity would be detrimental, said Lee Jun-han, a politics professor at Incheon National University.
“They [potential presidential contenders] would want to meet Yoon because they think it would boost their chances of winning the primary. But eventually, its candidate will have to win the election, which will be difficult without enough support from moderates,” Lee told The Korea Times.
Some Yoon supporters are even calling for him to run again, even though it is legally impossible and polls show that his influence is limited to a small portion of voters nationwide.
According to a joint survey released Thursday by four pollsters, only 28 percent of the respondents said they did not agree with the Constitutional Court verdict that ousted Yoon.
Half of the respondents said the PPP should expel Yoon from the party and cut ties with him, while 16 percent said it should continue to support him.
In its primary, the PPP plans to narrow the number of contenders to four, which will be determined based on the result of its surveys in which only those who identify themselves as conservative can participate. The surveys are scheduled to be conducted between April 21 and 22.
After that, the contenders will face off in a television debate on April 26 before a vote by party members (50 percent) and another general public poll (50 percent) between April 27 and 28. If one candidate secures 50 percent of support, he or she will become the nominee the next day; otherwise, the top two will have to face off again. The process will be complete by May 3.
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Jung Min-ho
Jung Min-ho has worked as a staff writer at The Korea Times since 2012, mostly covering social and political issues. He currently belongs to the Politics & City Desk where he covers topics such as health, labor and human rights. Prior to joining the team, he was responsible for covering North Korea and sports. His article about a biosecurity breach of Middle East respiratory syndrome won him an award from the Korea Science Journalists Association in 2016. He is also the co-author of the book, "Medical Pioneers of Korea" (2019). He served as the head of the international relations committee at the Journalists Association of Korea from 2021 to 2023.
12. “Single Guardianship System Centered on Choe Ryong-hae Could Cause ‘North Korean Regime Instability’”
I cannot emphasize this enough. We must be observant for the indicators of resistance and internal instability and their effects on the regime.
This is a Google translation of an RFA report.
Excerpts:
“Kim Jong-un must be aware of the possibility of Choe Ryong-hae’s threat”
Ahn Chan-il, the first North Korean defector to receive a doctorate and director of the World Center for North Korean Studies, also agreed in a phone call with Radio Free Asia on the 11th that Choe Ryong-hae's power base could become an element of instability in the North Korean regime in the future.
Regarding General Secretary Kim Jong-un's position, Chairman Ahn estimated that General Secretary Kim is also aware of the possibility of Choe Ryong-hae threatening the regime and is keeping him in check to a certain extent.
[Chairman Ahn Chan-il of the World North Korea Research Center] If Choe Ryong-hae steps forward, he will be unrivaled in terms of cohesion and elite mobilization. He is a fearful figure for Kim Jong-un, and among the elites, there is probably no one who only looks at Choe Ryong-hae and pays attention to others.
“Single Guardianship System Centered on Choe Ryong-hae Could Cause ‘North Korean Regime Instability’”
Seoul-Handohyeong hando@rfa.org
2025.04.11
https://www.rfa.org/korean/in-focus/2025/04/11/choeryonghae-north-instability-kimjongun-power/
Appearance of Choe Ryong-hae, President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea. (Yonhap)
Anchor: The National Assembly Research Service of South Korea said that the single guardianship system centered around Supreme People's Assembly Presidium President Choe Ryong-hae could potentially cause instability in the North Korean regime in the future. Reporter Han Do-hyung reports from Seoul.
The report titled 'Changes in the power structure within the North Korean elite and implications, focusing on the control of the official organization by Choe Ryong-hae's unofficial organization' was published on the 10th by the National Assembly Research Service (NRS).
Lee Seung-yeol, a legislative research officer at the National Assembly who wrote the report, said that the ruling elite's single guardianship system centered on Supreme People's Assembly Presidium President Choe Ryong-hae could have a significant impact on the stability of the North Korean Kim Jong-un regime in the future in the absence of a competing elite.
The legislative researcher analyzed that around the 6th plenary session of the 8th Central Committee in December 2022, Choe Ryong-hae established a single guardianship system for the ruling elite, and the role of his rival, Cho Yong-won, head of the Organization and Guidance Department and secretary of the organization, was significantly reduced.
According to the legislative researcher's analysis, Choe Ryong Hae was granted the authority to formally organize the so-called unofficial organization that appoints his associates to official positions in October 2017, when General Secretary Kim Jong Un appointed Choe Ryong Hae as the head of the Organization and Guidance Department at the 2nd Plenary Session of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea.
From this time on, Choe Ryong Hae was granted the authority to formalize an unofficial organization that was unprecedented except for Jang Song Thaek, and like Jang Song Thaek, he began appointing his close associates to key positions in the party, government, and military based on their direct connections.
The legislative researcher said that the informal organization's formal reorganization was largely completed between the 2nd Plenary Session of the 7th Central Committee in October 2017, when Choe Ryong-hae was appointed as the head of the Organization and Guidance Department, and the 1st Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly in April 2019.
It was also interpreted that since the ruling elite's single guardianship system centered around Choe Ryong-hae was completed in December 2022, the competitive structure within the elite has disappeared, and large-scale purges through power struggles are no longer reported.
The legislative researcher said that Choe Ryong-hae is currently restraining himself from public activities as much as possible and supporting General Secretary Kim Jong-un's ruling actions with an invisible hand, which is a contrast to Jang Song-thaek's past behavior of showing off and seeking to monopolize more economic power.
The legislative researcher stated that the completion of the ruling elite single-guardianship system centered on Choe Ryong-hae has paradoxically limited the ruling principle of the North Korean leader system, namely control through checks and surveillance, while effectively neutralizing competition among the elites in North Korea.
In doing so, it was diagnosed that whether the legitimacy of General Secretary Kim Jong-un and the executive power of Choe Ryong-hae would continue stably would be one of the key variables that would determine the future of the North Korean regime.
In a phone call with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 11th, the legislative researcher said that although Choe Ryong-hae established a single guardianship system through competition, General Secretary Kim Jong-un also tolerated this, and assessed that General Secretary Kim's know-how in exercising power lags behind Kim Jong-il's.
[Lee Seung-yeol, Legislative Research Officer, National Assembly Research Service] It’s been fine so far, but in the future, it’s likely to become a significant factor of instability, a significant obstacle to Kim Jong-un’s ability to operate the leadership system. The person who actually tolerated this expansion was Kim Jong-un. We have to assume that his know-how in operating power is quite lacking.
Choe Ryong-hae bows his head and shakes the hand of General Secretary Kim Jong-un at the Supreme People's Assembly in April 2019. (Yonhap)
“Kim Jong-un must be aware of the possibility of Choe Ryong-hae’s threat”
Ahn Chan-il, the first North Korean defector to receive a doctorate and director of the World Center for North Korean Studies, also agreed in a phone call with Radio Free Asia on the 11th that Choe Ryong-hae's power base could become an element of instability in the North Korean regime in the future.
Regarding General Secretary Kim Jong-un's position, Chairman Ahn estimated that General Secretary Kim is also aware of the possibility of Choe Ryong-hae threatening the regime and is keeping him in check to a certain extent.
[Chairman Ahn Chan-il of the World North Korea Research Center] If Choe Ryong-hae steps forward, he will be unrivaled in terms of cohesion and elite mobilization. He is a fearful figure for Kim Jong-un, and among the elites, there is probably no one who only looks at Choe Ryong-hae and pays attention to others.
This is Han Do-hyung from RFA Free Asia Broadcasting in Seoul.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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