Quotes of the Day:
The Unknowable Unknown
Before it begins, genocide is not easy to wrap one's mind around. A genocidal regimes intent to destroy a group is so hideous and the scale of its atrocities so enormous that outsiders who know enough to forecast brutality can rarely bring themselves to imagine genocide. This was true of many of the diplomats, journalists, and European Jews who observed Hitler throughout the 1930s, and it was certainly true of diplomats, journalists, and Cambodians who speculated about the Khmer Rouge before they seized power. The omens of imminent, mass violence were omnipresent but largely dismissed.
– Samantha Power
“War is an ill thing, as I surely know. But 'twould be an ill world for weaponless dreamers if evil men were not now and then slain.”
― Rudyard Kipling
"Justice is conscience, not a personal conscience but the conscience of the whole of humanity. Those who clearly recognize the voice of their own conscience usually recognize also the voice of justice."
– Alexander Solzhenitsyn
1. Policy Experts Call for Strengthening U.S.-ROK Alliance and Korean Reunification 'End Goal' for Regional Security and Development
2. President-elect Yoon mourns passing of U.S. Korean War veteran
3. Yoon Seok-yeol’s rise from rebel prosecutor to president
4. South Korea, Japan need 'strong mediator' to work out differences, says former US ambassador
5. U.S.' approval rating jumps to 59 pct in S. Korea: poll
6. U.S. supports inter-Korean cooperation to create stability: State Dept.
7. North Korea nuclear test may be imminent as Kim amps up pressure
8. Biden to visit South Korea and Japan
9. Analysis: North Korea could ‘go small’ with tactical nukes
10. Departing South Korean Leader Exchanges Farewell Letters With Kim Jong-un
11. Koreans may be about to lose a year from their age. Here’s why
12. South Korea’s Supreme Court Issues Landmark Ruling on Gay Sex
1. Policy Experts Call for Strengthening U.S.-ROK Alliance and Korean Reunification 'End Goal' for Regional Security and Development
Policy Experts Call for Strengthening U.S.-ROK Alliance and Korean Reunification 'End Goal' for Regional Security and Development
Timely International Forum on One Korea convened by Global Peace Foundation, One Korea Foundation, Action for Korea United, and the Alliance for Korea United USA
WASHINGTON and SEOUL, South Korea, April 22, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Leading Korea experts in the United States and South Korea said the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the next president of South Korea, North Korea's reactivation of missile tests, and Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine underscored the need for a strong and credible international security architecture, a recommitment to the U.S.-ROK alliance, and robust support for a free and unified Korea as the ultimate solution for Northeast Asia regional peace and development.
At a U.S. Congressional-ROK National Assembly Roundtable, leaders expressed support for the incoming administration and guarded hopes for advances in the complex process of reunification. Six distinguished members of the Republic of Korea’s National Assembly urged China to support peace and create space for cooperation between the two Koreas, at the same time strengthening a multilateral security framework among allies who share the noble values of liberal democracy.
Policy Experts Call for Strengthening U.S.-ROK Alliance and Korean Reunification 'End Goal' for Regional Security
U.S. Congressional leaders, ROK National Assembly members, Korea experts, North Korean defectors, and U.S. and ROK military leaders expressed support for the incoming administration and guarded hopes for advances in the complex process of reunification during an April 21 virtual forum.
General Vincent Brooks, former commander of the combined Korean and United States forces in the Republic of Korea, called for a strong posture by the ROK – U.S. alliance. "North Korea, China and Russia will seek to weaken the linkage between South Korea and the United States," Gen. Brooks told the forum. "They will do that by creating issues on matters that should otherwise be resolved [and]putting pressure on matters of security, matters of economy, matters of policy."
Col. David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the president-elect must recognize that "the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve the Korean people and ROK and U.S. interests is the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, free market economics and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea."
Six distinguished members of the Republic of Korea's National Assembly urged China to support peace and create space for cooperation between the two Koreas, at the same time strengthening a multilateral security framework among allies who share the noble values of liberal democracy.
"Emerging and never-before-seen threats and challenges require even closer cooperation and more sustained partnership to ensure shared prosperity and security in the years and decades ahead," said U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks (NY), chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. "This effort includes taking steps to deepen our trilateral cooperation with Japan, enhance plurilateral cooperation to keep the Indo-Pacific free, open, and inclusive, and strive towards the denuclearization of North Korea and a free and unified Korean Peninsula."
Global Peace Foundation (GPF) Founder and Chairman Dr. Hyun Jin P. Moon condemned Russia's unprovoked war in Ukraine and the toll of destruction and human suffering, while praising the courage and determination of the Ukrainian people and resolute international response.
"The Ukrainian crisis is a rude awakening that should be a catalyst for a bold new approach and clear strategic thinking across the Korean peninsula," the GPF chairman said. "That should begin with the people of South Korea who enjoy freedom but have become indifferent."
"A unified Korea that upholds fundamental human rights and values should become the clearly stated and actively pursued policy of ROK's new Yoon administration, as well as the U.S., allies, and the United Nations. This would provide a clear end goal for Korea policy and a framework for all negotiations with North Korea."
The forum was convened both virtually and in-person in Seoul, Korea.
The election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the next president of South Korea, North Korea’s reactivation of missile tests, and Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine underscored the need for a strong and credible international security architecture, a recommitment to the U.S.-ROK alliance, and robust support for a free and unified Korea as the ultimate solution peace and security in Northeast Asia. U.S. and ROK military leaders, Korea experts, policy advisers convened at an April 22 international forum.
Korea experts Dr. Ho-Young Ahn, Dr. Edwin Feulner, and Dr. Hyun Jin Preston Moon deliver remarks at an international forum calling for the strengthening of the U.S.-ROK Alliance and a re-examination of the approach and commitment of the ROK, U.S., and the global community to form a unified Korea that upholds fundamental human rights and values. "The Ukrainian crisis is a rude awakening that should be a catalyst for a bold new approach and clear strategic thinking across the Korean peninsula."
Cision
SOURCE Global Peace Foundation
2. President-elect Yoon mourns passing of U.S. Korean War veteran
Thank you President-elect Yoon for recognizing and honoring a great American and a great supporter of the ROK/US alliance.
President-elect Yoon mourns passing of U.S. Korean War veteran | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol on Friday commemorated the work of a late U.S. Korean War veteran for his service to both South Korea and the U.S. and to their alliance.
Yoon also expressed his "deepest respect" to Col. William Weber, who died on April 9 at the age of 96.
"He devoted his life to ensuring the world not to forget the significance of the Korean War and promoting humanity of Korean War veterans as president of the Korean War Veterans Memorial Foundation," Yoon said of Weber in a letter read on his behalf at the funeral of the Korean War veteran.
"Thanks to Col. Weber's dedication, the Wall of Remembrance featuring names of those soldiers who gave their lives in the Korean War is under construction in Washington D.C. and is close to completion," Yoon noted.
The Korean War Veterans Memorial in Washington was initially dedicated in 1995. The ongoing work is to put up a wall with the names of 36,574 American service personel, as well as some 7,200 Koreans that served as Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army (KATUSA), who died in the 1950-53 war.
"The noble courage and sacrifice of Col. Weber, with the Remembrance Wall, will live forever in the hearts of the Korean people," Yoon said.
"I would like to express my deepest respect to Col. Weber, and to share the sorrow with you and your bereaved families," he added.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Yoon Seok-yeol’s rise from rebel prosecutor to president
Interesting domestic political analysis.
But I want to highlight the comment about critics saying the President-elect is implementing a hostile policy (or saying he has a hostile position). It is important that we all understand and continue to emphasize that it is Kim Jong-un wo has the hostile policy that seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula. People on both sides of the political spectrum need to recognize and understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. This is an important task for the new Yoon administration.
Excerpts:
Some critics argue that Moon and the president-elect are pursuing hostile positions to reinforce their support bases ahead of the 1 June local elections. Faced with multiple national challenges — including soaring inflation due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, South Korea’s deadly Omicron wave with record high new infections and deaths and North Korea’s test-firing of an advanced ICBM — both sides need to work together. Yoon, in particular, cannot realise his key commitments, including the reorganisation of the government, without the support of the now opposition DP, which holds 172 seats in the 300-member National Assembly.
Bipartisan cooperation is crucial for Yoon to advance South Korean democracy, especially in overcoming gender inequality. Many citizens have shown concern about Yoon’s anti-feminist platform which he espoused during his campaign.
The June 2022 local election will be the first test of Yoon’s leadership. It will provide a litmus test for how successful his administration will be in promoting inclusive politics and well considered policies based on public consensus, fairness and justice.
Yoon Seok-yeol’s rise from rebel prosecutor to president | East Asia Forum
Author: Hyung-A Kim, ANU
South Korea’s fiercely contested presidential election on 9 March resulted in a win for former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol of the conservative opposition People Power Party (PPP). Yoon will become the next president after claiming victory with a razor-thin margin of 0.73 per cent, or 247,077 votes, over his rival Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party (DP).
For the first time in South Korean history, a political novice has won the presidential election, dragging the PPP out of the political wilderness. The victory comes five years after the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye of the PPP’s predecessor party who was ousted by the Candlelight Revolution of 2016–17.
Yoon has neither experience in the National Assembly nor any proven governing skills. He has been embroiled in many scandals involving his family members. Some conservatives also revile Yoon as a culprit for his role in indicting former conservative presidents Park and Lee Myung-bak, causing Park’s impeachment before she and Lee were jailed. Park was pardoned in December 2021.
But Yoon became a public and opposition idol when, as prosecutor general, he investigated former justice minister Cho Kuk’s alleged corruption. Yoon’s clash with Cho’s successor, former justice minister Choo Mi-ae, over judicial authority ultimately led him to resign and run for presidential office.
Yoon’s election, just 370 days after his resignation as prosecutor general, is inseparable from his proven record as a rebel prosecutor.
The eldest son of a relatively well-off family of academics in Seoul, Yoon passed the state bar exam on his 10th attempt at the age of 31 in 1991, after sitting nine times for the yearly bar exam since studying law at Seoul National University.
Yoon became popularly known as a rebel prosecutor after he made a bombshell disclosure in October 2013. During a National Assembly examination Yoon claimed that he had been pressured to stop investigating the alleged role of the National Intelligence Service during the 2012 presidential election in manipulating public opinion through online and social media to support Park. Following his disclosure, Yoon became a man in exile, for nearly three consecutive years from March 2014, having been demoted to less important regional branch offices, including Yeoju, Daejon and Daegu.
Yoon’s moment came when President Moon Jae-in, on taking office in 2017, handpicked him as chief prosecutor at the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office. He led Moon’s signature ‘clean-up deep-rooted evils’ reform that resulted in jailing conservative ruling elites, including Park and Lee.
Yoon became ‘the most in-demand politician’ after his abrupt resignation as prosecutor general in March 2021. By then, he was regarded by many South Koreans as a defender of the rule of law and public interest, having investigated corruption cases involving President Moon’s close allies, most notably the Cho Kuk scandal. In this context, Moon has been the greatest contributor to Yoon’s unlikely election win.
For Yoon’s supporters, his presidential election is a triumph for South Korean democracy, showing South Korean voters’ willingness to punish Moon and his party’s poor performance. To them, the Moon administration weakened South Korean democracy by monopolising state affairs and the National Assembly, which led to voter backlash.
Yoon’s narrow margin also means that nearly the same share of the electorate voted for Yoon’s DP opponent, showing the sharp split in South Korean society. The president-elect’s most urgent task now is to unite South Korean society and people, disillusioned by sky-rocketing housing prices, widening income and gender inequality and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Moon and Yoon held a long-awaited first official meeting on 28 March after a 19-day delay. At the meeting the outgoing and incoming presidents agreed to cooperate for the smooth transition of power despite Moon’s initial concern about a potential ‘security vacuum’ over Yoon’s plan to relocate the presidential office, the Blue House. Yoon also promised that he would continue the Moon administration’s successful policies and improve poor ones.
But a public clash broke out shortly afterwards. Moon criticised the relocation of the Blue House to the Ministry of National Defense building, where Yoon wants to hold his inauguration on 10 May. Meanwhile, Yoon called out Moon’s so-called ‘parachute appointments’ of pro-government people to major posts in public institutions before his term expires.
Some critics argue that Moon and the president-elect are pursuing hostile positions to reinforce their support bases ahead of the 1 June local elections. Faced with multiple national challenges — including soaring inflation due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, South Korea’s deadly Omicron wave with record high new infections and deaths and North Korea’s test-firing of an advanced ICBM — both sides need to work together. Yoon, in particular, cannot realise his key commitments, including the reorganisation of the government, without the support of the now opposition DP, which holds 172 seats in the 300-member National Assembly.
Bipartisan cooperation is crucial for Yoon to advance South Korean democracy, especially in overcoming gender inequality. Many citizens have shown concern about Yoon’s anti-feminist platform which he espoused during his campaign.
The June 2022 local election will be the first test of Yoon’s leadership. It will provide a litmus test for how successful his administration will be in promoting inclusive politics and well considered policies based on public consensus, fairness and justice.
Hyung-A Kim is Associate Professor of Korean Politics and History at the School of Culture, History and Language, The Australian National University.
4. South Korea, Japan need 'strong mediator' to work out differences, says former US ambassador
Recall that this is a major line of effort in what are 10 lines of effort in our Indo-Pacific strategy. (It is No. 7 in the action plan here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf) though they are not in numbered priority - all 10 are important). I cannot recall another major strategy document that places such a high priority on improving trilateral cooperation despite long knowing and realizing how important this is - we have often made statements about this but again I do not recall it so clearly articulated and prioritized in a major strategy document.
South Korea, Japan need 'strong mediator' to work out differences, says former US ambassador
Harry Harris, a retired admiral who led U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Pacific Fleet, served as U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 2018 to 2020. (Benjamin Parsons/U.S. Army)
A healthy alliance between South Korea, Japan and the United States is “crucial” to Asia's stability, former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris said Thursday.
But, he added, Seoul and Tokyo need a third-party mediator like Washington to help them work out their differences.
"Since World War II, the network of U.S. alliances and partnerships has been at the core of a stable Indo-Pacific,” Harris said during a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Hudson Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. “Relationships matter and alliances matter.”
To address North Korea’s provocations and ensure stability in the region, South Korea and Japan must put aside the “bad history” between them, he said.
Historical divisions often mar relations between two of the region’s most powerful and successful democracies.
For decades, the two countries have bickered over ownership of a cluster of small islands in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea. The islands, which Seoul and Tokyo call Dokdo and Takeshima, respectively, have prompted the two nations to create government websites dedicated to their claims.
When then-South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited the islands in 2012, Japan’s government recalled its ambassador in Seoul and described the visit as "unacceptable.”
South Korea and Japan also argue over whether Japanese troops forced Korean women into prostitution during World War II and what reparations those “comfort women” are due.
Harris said it is crucial that the two countries and the U.S. “work together to enhance security cooperation and preserve the international rules-based order.”
“The reality is that no important security or economic issue in the region can be addressed without South Korea’s and Japan’s active involvement,” he said.
But, Harris said, he believes Tokyo and Seoul are “unable to work out their differences by themselves” and that they need a mediator, like the U.S., or a “strong, common existential threat,” such as North Korea or China.
Harris, a retired admiral who also led U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Pacific Fleet, represented U.S. interests in South Korea from 2018 to 2020.
Growth between the two countries plateaued during Harris’ tenure. Then-President Donald Trump demanded that Seoul pay more for stationing of U.S. troops in the country and South Korean President Moon Jae-in undertook a passive approach to diplomacy with North Korea.
Despite several groundbreaking summits between Trump, Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, diplomatic progress between the three countries stalled and have now regressed to sharp rhetoric and more weapons tests from Pyongyang.
President Joe Biden is expected to visit South Korea and meet with President-elect Yoon Seok-youl in May, according to multiple news reports. Yoon, a member of the conservative party, is scheduled to take office May 10 and has signaled closer ties with Japan and the U.S. at the expense of relations with North Korea.
Harris said he was optimistic about Yoon’s stated outreach to Japan: “The stakes are too high to take any other course.”
5. U.S.' approval rating jumps to 59 pct in S. Korea: poll
No one should ever become over confident or complacent because of these statistics. It takes work to sustain the strength of the alliance.
U.S.' approval rating jumps to 59 pct in S. Korea: poll | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 22 (Yonhap) -- The United States' approval rating in South Korea jumped at one of the steepest rates among Asian countries in 2021, a poll showed Friday.
The approval rating of U.S. leadership in South Korea climbed to 59 percent last year from 30 percent a year earlier, according to Gallup.
The increase marks the second highest among 33 Asian countries where the poll was conducted between April 2021 and January 2022.
"Ratings of U.S. leadership showed substantial improvement in 13 Asian countries and territories in 2021, including South Korea, where ratings increased 29 percentage points," Gallup said on its website.
The median approval of U.S. leadership in Asia was 41 percent.
The approval rate for U.S. leadership in Laos increased from 4 percent in 2020 to 34 percent last year, representing the sharpest rate increase among nations surveyed. The highest approval rating for U.S. leadership was in the Philippines at 71 percent, a traditionally strong U.S. ally in the region, said Gallup.
The relationship between South Korea and the U.S., despite their seven-decades old alliance, soured under former U.S. President Donald Trump who had threatened to pull U.S. troops out of South Korea unless Seoul sharply increased its burden sharing to maintain some 28,500 U.S. service members stationed on the peninsula.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
6. U.S. supports inter-Korean cooperation to create stability: State Dept.
Yes, we should support inter-Korean engagement. But we should be under no illusion that even with such engagement, it will lead Kim Jong-un to change and become a responsible member of the international community.
If Kim fails to do so (which I believe he will fail) then this engagement allows for better people to people contact, to gain better understanding of conditions in north Korea, and provide a conduit for information to get to the Korean people in the north. Even if the main purpose for engagement fails there are many other benefits we can gain from such engagement. We just cannot be deterred by the criticism that will come because of Kim Jong-un's failure to change.
U.S. supports inter-Korean cooperation to create stability: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 22 (Yonhap) -- The United States supports inter-Korean cooperation that can help create more stability on the Korean Peninsula, a state department spokesperson said Friday.
The remarks by Jalina Porter, principal deputy spokesperson for the state department, come after North Korea said its leader Kim Jong-un recently exchanged personal letters with South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
"I don't have a comment on the exchange of letters," Porter said in a telephonic press briefing when asked to comment on the exchange of letters between the leaders of the divided Koreas.
"But what I can say is that we strongly support inter-Korean cooperation and believe that it can play an important role in creating a more stable environment on the Korean Peninsula," she added.
Kim and Moon held three summit meetings in 2018 and 2019, but Pyongyang has avoided denuclearization talks with South Korea and the U.S. since late 2019.
The North has also remained unresponsive to any overtures from the Joe Biden administration since it took office in January 2021, department spokesperson Ned Price said Thursday.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
7. North Korea nuclear test may be imminent as Kim amps up pressure
An underground test is one thing - a "launch" is quite another. I think the headline editor may have overstepped or "over interpreted" the article.
Important commentary from Bruce Bechtol and Bruce Klingner.
North Korea nuclear test may be imminent as Kim amps up pressure
Launch could pose fresh headache for Biden amid Ukraine crisis
Subscriber-only
North Korea will test a nuclear weapon before the end of the year and may do so as soon as next week, according to U.S. national security analysts, who say Pyongyang is increasingly eager to put pressure on President Biden after more than a year of watching his administration’s foreign policy moves.
A nuclear test by Pyongyang would shake up the regional and global security landscape while South Korea is preparing to swear in a hawkish president and the U.S. and its top allies are consumed with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s last nuclear test, in 2017, sparked intense brinkmanship that eventually resulted in a pair of high-stakes summits with President Trump. Mr. Kim appears eager to set Seoul on edge as it goes through its first leadership transition in five years.
Incoming South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative whose inauguration is scheduled for May 10, has vowed to coordinate more closely and robustly with the United States and be less conciliatory than President Moon Jae-in toward Pyongyang. Park Jin, tapped to be foreign minister under Mr. Yoon, said the Moon administration’s policy of engagement and rapprochement with Pyongyang, while well-intentioned, had reached its limit.
“The current appeasement policies cannot stop North Korea from escalating tensions, and it is time to make practical changes to North Korea policies,” Mr. Park told reporters this week.
As Seoul undergoes a political shift, the Kim regime has carried out increasingly powerful ballistic missile tests while ignoring calls from the Biden administration for a return to diplomatic talks that broke down in 2019.
Adding to South Korea’s alarm, North Korea said Sunday that it had successfully tested a missile that could hit Seoul from the front lines with a smaller, “tactical” nuclear warhead. Even with a more limited range than an intercontinental ballistic missile, the weapon could prove more of a threat to South Korea.
The quickened pace of the tests, including one of an ICBM in late March, is Mr. Kim’s way of “trying to get some kind of movement out of the U.S. and the South Koreans,” said Bruce Bechtol, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer who teaches at Angelo State University in Texas.
“I’m convinced that the next thing is going to be a nuclear test,” Mr. Bechtol told The Washington Times. He said Pyongyang’s wave of provocations is similar to the multiple ballistic and ICBM launches in 2017 and its sixth and largest nuclear test, detonating a hydrogen bomb underground, in an early challenge to the Trump administration.
“They want to test Biden now that he’s been in office for a year,” he said. “They want to put some pressure on him, so the next thing they need to show off is their nuclear program, and they’ll probably do that by carrying out a nuke test with a higher yield than what they tested in 2017.”
The 2017 test carried an explosive yield in excess of 100 kilotons TNT equivalent, a dramatic increase from the less than 25 kiloton yield of tests in 2013 and 2016.
“Kim Jong-un and his inner circle want to be able to say that whatever they test going forward has a higher yield than the 2017 test, which had a lot higher yield than any previous test they had carried out,” Mr. Bechtol said. “They want to make a splash to get people in the U.S. and Seoul saying, ‘Gosh, what do we do now?’ That is what the North Koreans do to get us back to talks on terms they want. They believe that carrying out such a test might get us to ease sanctions in exchange for rejoining talks.”
As for the timing of a nuclear test, Mr. Bechtol speculated that the North will wait until after Mr. Yoon is inaugurated on May 10. “I think that will happen by the end of this year,” he said.
North Korea watchers have been especially on edge since mid-March, when reports emerged that satellite imagery had picked up signs of construction at Punggye-ri for the first time since the Kim regime claimed to have shuttered the nuclear test site in 2018.
The regime carried out all six of its nuclear tests from 2006 to 2017 in underground tunnels beneath a mountain at Punggye-ri. North Korean officials invited a small clutch of foreign journalists to watch as explosives were used to destroy the entrances to Punggye-ri’s tunnels in a show of goodwill ahead of the first Trump-Kim summit in Singapore in 2018.
Mr. Kim signaled at the time that he would halt ICBM and nuclear tests while participating in diplomatic talks. After the Singapore summit and a subsequent Trump-Kim meeting in Hanoi failed to result in major sanctions relief or a denuclearization deal, the Kim regime began ramping up testing of short-range missiles in 2019.
By the end of 2019, North Korean state media reported that Mr. Kim no longer felt bound by the self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests.
Getting ready
More recent events indicate that Pyongyang has “clearly broken the ICBM portion of the moratorium, and satellite imagery now shows they are doing excavation work on Punggye-ri,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA Korea deputy division chief.
“They’re working on the test site in such a way that indicates that they’re preparing to carry out a nuclear test,” Mr. Klingner, a senior fellow with The Heritage Foundation, told The Times.
Although the timing of a major test is unclear, Mr. Klingner predicted it could be as soon as the April 25 anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army, the North Korean military. He said Pyongyang is showing signs that it is preparing to hold a military parade for the anniversary.
“They may also do another ICBM test on the 25th and or a nuclear test,” Mr. Klingner said. “Whether it’s April 25th or not remains to be seen, and it could be a small or large nuclear test.”
North Korea has been conducting a flurry of missile tests, including one Sunday of a projectile that North Korean state media claimed was a new type of tactical guided weapon designed to boost Pyongyang’s nuclear targeting capabilities.
Launches late last month triggered debate among U.S. and South Korean officials over precisely what missiles the North Koreans had tested, although analysts generally agreed that one of the tests, on March 24, marked the Kim regime’s most powerful ICBM test to date.
The regime claimed via state media to have tested an Hwasong-17, a massive missile first revealed at a 2020 military parade. However, U.S. and South Korean analysts have since said the March 24 test was likely an upgraded version of the less powerful Hwasong-15, which North Korea first tested in 2017.
The Biden administration has responded with caution. The White House dispatched North Korea special envoy Sung Kim this week to meet with his South Korean counterpart and show a unified front in condemning the North’s provocations.
Appearing in Seoul on Monday, Mr. Kim said the U.S. and South Korea are aligned on the need for a strong response to the missile tests but remain open to dialogue with the Kim regime.
“We agreed on the need for a strong response to the destabilizing behavior we have seen,” Mr. Kim told reporters. “We also agreed on the need to maintain the strongest possible joint deterrent capability on the peninsula.”
Mr. Klingner said the Biden administration should take action now by enforcing sanctions authorized against North Korea, including hundreds of North Korean entities, as well as several Chinese banks that U.S. officials suspect have helped Pyongyang evade sanctions.
Previous administrations, including the Trump administration, have stopped short of fully enforcing the sanctions, Mr. Klingner said. Full enforcement, he said, would “make it more difficult for North Korea to make progress on its missile and nuclear programs and could work to inspire them back into diplomacy.”
Given the closed nature of the North Korean regime and the central role of its weapons programs in national security policy, “there really is no way to deter them from doing another test.”
“They clearly have shown for decades that they’re determined to have nuclear and missile programs,” Mr. Klingner said, and “there’s much more pessimism across the community of Korea watchers right now that we can do things to prevent North Korea’s further development of these programs.”
8. Biden to visit South Korea and Japan
Maybe the President will announce a high level mediator during this trip as recommended by Admiral/Ambassador Harris.
Biden to visit South Korea and Japan
Axios · by Hans Nichols · April 22, 2022
President Biden is finalizing plans to visit South Korea and then Japan in late May, letting him show support for two crucial allies amid increasingly hostile behavior from North Korea, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: The trip is a reminder the Biden administration — and the world — face security threats beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It also shows how the president is returning to a more robust travel schedule as the White House eases many of its pandemic protocols.
- North Korea has conducted more than dozen weapons tests this year, including last month’s test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.
- By visiting South Korea shortly after a new pro-alliance president is inaugurated, Biden is signaling his support for the new government — and its more confrontational approach to North Korea leader Kim Jong-un.
- The Japan portion of the trip, which has been scheduled longer, will allow Biden to reaffirm the importance of Japan on a range of global issues and highlight the strength the trilateral alliance.
What they're saying: The National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the travel plans or reasons behind them.
Between the lines: The president promised to ramp up his travel earlier this year and has visited both Iowa and New Hampshire during the past two weeks.
- He traveled on Thursday to Portland, Oregon, and Seattle to promote the bipartisan infrastructure law.
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He also was hosting the first two on-the-road fundraisers of his presidency while in the Pacific Northwest.
The big picture: Supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia is still occupying the majority of the administration’s foreign policy bandwidth.
- But Asian partners and allies, who've helped impose export controls on technology transfers to Russia, play a key role.
- Officials also want to prepare allies for a protracted conflict with Russia. Biden will need their help in weaning the world off of Russia’s energy.
With the European Union reducing its imports of Russian oil and natural gas, Japan and South Korea have already diverted some of their supplies to Europe.
- That was easier to do this year with a mild Asia winter and sanctions against Russia starting in late February, but surviving next year’s full winter will force some difficult burden sharing.
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Japan and South Korea, two of the world's biggest liquified natural gas importers, may have to share the global LNG supply with Europe.
Driving the news: Biden has long been planning a Japan visit, in part for a summit with the leaders of the so-called “Quad."
That security group includes the U.S., Japan, Australia and India.
- Adding a South Korea stop will help bolster the new president, Yoon Suk-yeol. He won a narrow victory by taking a tougher stance on North Korea than the previous president. He also promised to rebuild relations with the U.S.
- Yoon will be inaugurated on May 10.
- Strengthening the trilateral relationship between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea is also crucial to the administration’s plan to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Go deeper: A U.S. delegation is traveling this week to the Solomon Islands, a South Pacific archipelago with fewer than 700,000 inhabitants.
- A key battleground in World War II, it's unexpectedly become ground zero for current U.S.-China competition.
Axios · by Hans Nichols · April 22, 2022
9. Analysis: North Korea could ‘go small’ with tactical nukes
As one of my many mentors says (though in a slightly different context): "Go early, go small, go local, go long.” I think in war the regime will go early with nukes. I think they could go small (or just enough to damage SPODs. and APODS to prevent reinforcement), go local (on the Korean peninsula and Japan), and go long (the long term objective is to dominate the Korean peninsula under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State).
Analysis: North Korea could ‘go small’ with tactical nukes
- Summary
- N.Korea seen as preparing for possible nuclear test
- Recent missile launch showed first official tactical nuke system
- Tactical nuclear weapons raise risks on peninsula - analysts
- North may already have warheads to fit on some small missiles
SEOUL, April 22 (Reuters) - If North Korea resumes nuclear testing, it could include development of smaller “tactical” warheads meant for battlefield use and designed to fit on short-range missiles such as the one tested last weekend, analysts said.
South Korean and U.S. officials say there are signs that North Korea is seeking to resume operations in an underground tunnel at its Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which was officially shuttered in 2018.
On Saturday, the North test-fired a new, short-range missile that state media said was for "enhancing the efficiency in the operation of tactical nukes," marking the first time North Korea has linked a specific system to tactical nuclear weapons.
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Analysts say putting small warheads on short-range missiles could represent a dangerous change in the way North Korea deploys and plans to use nuclear weapons. It means Pyongyang can field more of them, and instead of threatening a few cities to deter an attack, could use them against a wide range of military targets in the South.
"North Korea doesn't need to test to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, but it looks like we should expect to see a seventh and perhaps more lower-yield nuclear tests as they go about developing these weapons," said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
North Korea’s previous six nuclear tests saw it detonate progressively larger weapons; the final one was viewed as likely to be a thermonuclear weapon.
"They don’t need to demonstrate that they have a nuclear warhead, but this time they could be demonstrating that they have one small enough to put on a relatively small missile," said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean army general. "It significantly increases the dangers on the Korean peninsula and increasingly the capabilities of the North Koreans."
The weekend missile test, its importance highlighted by the personal presence of leader Kim Jong Un, underscored recent warnings by the North that in a war, it would use nuclear weapons to wipe out the South’s military.
Concerns over North Korea's recent tests, including what it claims are "hypersonic missiles", have prompted incoming South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to advocate boosting the South's military deterrent, and to enable possible preemptive strikes if an attack is imminent.
There is no universally accepted definition of what a tactical nuclear weapon is, but the term often refers to systems, including land-based missiles for battlefield use with a range of less than 500 km (300 miles).
Their yield, or explosion size, is often smaller than other types of nuclear weapons, although physically smaller warheads can have relatively large yields.
In the depths of the Cold War, both the U.S. and Soviet Union saw tactical nuclear weapons as a means of stopping otherwise catastrophic battlefield advances by their enemies. Because they are less destructive than the larger weapons meant for strategic use, some analysts say there is a risk that leaders might be too willing to launch them.
As early as 2017, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that North Korea could miniaturise nuclear weapons for all of its delivery systems, from short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Kim Jong Un in January 2021 touted the country's ability to assemble small nuclear warheads and listed making “nuclear weapons smaller and lighter for more tactical uses” as a core strategic task.
Panda said his research showed that the North has several options, including “gun-type” warheads of the sort used in the Little Boy bomb in 1945, and the plutonium-based linear implosion bomb, which has been used for especially small nuclear weapons such as the U.S. W48 artillery shell.
But gun-type weapons use too much highly enriched uranium fuel, and the plutonium-based linear implosion bombs are complex and use too much plutonium. That means North Korea is likely to stick with the standard spherical implosion fission bomb it has already developed.
The warheads already showcased by North Korea appear to be small enough to fit on some of its recently tested KN-23 or KN-24 SRBMs, Panda said, though analysts say it is unclear whether those systems are meant to be nuclear capable.
The Saturday test showed that they have ambitions for even smaller warheads, he said.
"I'd suspect they'd look to test these first as they may opt for a more exotic warhead design to accommodate smaller dimensions," Panda said.
Such tests could be accompanied by a “show-and-tell” element where Kim visits the Nuclear Weapons Institute and inspects a mocked-up tactical nuclear warhead, he added.
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Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
10. Departing South Korean Leader Exchanges Farewell Letters With Kim Jong-un
More analysis and background.
Departing South Korean Leader Exchanges Farewell Letters With Kim Jong-un
President Moon Jae-in, who is barred from seeking re-election after his five-year term, and the North’s leader had warm parting words amid a diplomatic stalemate.
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The North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea holding hands at the border line between their two countries, in 2018.Credit...Korea Summit Press Pool, via Associated Press
By
April 22, 2022, 12:39 a.m. ET
SEOUL — South Korea’s departing president, Moon Jae-in, exchanged farewell letters with North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, both governments announced on Friday, capping a checkered relationship filled with highs and lows and currently locked in a diplomatic stalemate.
Mr. Moon, 69, who is barred by law from seeking re-election, will step down on May 10 after a single five-year term. In his letter sent Wednesday, he urged Mr. Kim to use “dialogue to overcome the era of confrontation” on the divided Korean Peninsula, according to Mr. Moon’s spokeswoman, Park Kyung-mee.
The South Korean president asked Mr. Kim to resume dialogue with the United States to try to end the cycle of tensions caused by North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and missile launches, which have led to international sanctions.
“There were moments of regret and memories of overwhelming emotions,” Mr. Moon wrote in the letter of his relationship with Mr. Kim. “But I believe that holding our hands together, we have taken a sure step toward changing the fate of the Korean Peninsula.”
Mr. Moon said that he would soon return to “life as an ordinary citizen,” but that his heart will be dedicated to efforts to build peace between the two Koreas.
North Korea’s First ICBM Firing Since 2017
On March 24, North Korea launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017, marking the end of a self-imposed moratorium.
Mr. Kim, 38, who will most likely rule North Korea until his death barring a coup or other forced removal, and whose government has harshly criticized the South Korean government, had some warm parting words for Mr. Moon, nevertheless.
“Kim Jong-un appreciated the pains and effort taken by Moon Jae-in for the great cause of the nation until the last days of his term of office,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency reported on Friday, referring to the letter Mr. Kim sent in response. “The exchange of the personal letters between the top leaders of the North and the South is an expression of their deep trust.”
The Koreas are still technically at war since the fighting between the two sides ended in 1953 not with a formal peace treaty but in a truce. When Mr. Moon took office in 2017, the Korean Peninsula looked as if it were edging toward a renewed war. North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb and launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. President Donald J. Trump threatened to rain “fire and fury” on the North. The two leaders exchanged personal insults like “little Rocket Man” and “U.S. dotard.”
President Donald J. Trump and Mr. Kim meeting for the first time in Singapore, in June 2018.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
But Mr. Moon and Mr. Kim introduced a rare détente when they met three times in 2018, hugging each other and vowing to build peace and reconciliation on the peninsula. Mr. Moon regularly called for dialogue and improving inter-Korean relations. He saw his political stock rise when he mediated the unprecedented made-for-TV summit between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump in Singapore in 2018.
The leaders signed a document in which Mr. Trump promised “security guarantees” for North Korea and Mr. Kim committed to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
Mr. Moon had his own moments of glory, as well: He stood in the May Day Stadium in Pyongyang in 2018, becoming the first South Korean leader to address a North Korean audience. He and Mr. Kim raised their locked hands atop Mount Paektu, which Koreans consider their nation’s sacred birthplace.
But the euphoria didn’t last long.
The devil has always been in the details when it comes to negotiating how to implement any deal with North Korea. Mr. Moon’s painstaking work to mediate between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump started fraying after their second summit, held in Hanoi in 2019, collapsed without the leaders sorting out the details on how to carry out the Singapore agreement.
The Significance of North Korea’s Missile Tests
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U.N. resolutions. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula started rising in 2017, when North Korea tested three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducted a nuclear test. The United Nations imposed sanctions, and Pyongyang stopped testing nuclear and long-range missiles for a time.
An escalation. North Korea started a new round of testing in September after a six-month hiatus. It has since completed several tests, including the firing of multiple intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, that violated the 2017 U.N. resolutions.
Mr. Trump left office without the removal of any North Korean nuclear warheads. Mr. Moon later said that Mr. Trump “beat around the bush and failed to pull it through.”
Since then, Mr. Kim has resumed a barrage of weapons tests, including one involving an intercontinental ballistic missile last month. His government has vented its frustration at South Korea, calling Mr. Moon’s government “officious,” an “idiot” and a “feared mongrel dog.” The North even blew up a joint inter-Korean liaison office that Mr. Moon had considered one of his key legacies.
Mr. Moon and his wife, Kim Jung-sook, right, standing with Mr. Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, on Mount Paektu in North Korea in September in 2018.Credit...Pyongyang Press Corps Pool, via Associated Press
In South Korea’s polarized society, Mr. Moon’s critics called him a naïve pacifist who bet too much on Mr. Kim’s unproven commitment to denuclearization. But Mr. Moon had die-hard supporters for his approach. His approval ratings hovered around 44 percent this month, an usually high record for a departing South Korean leader, according to surveys.
Even so, Mr. Moon’s trademark policy of seeking dialogue and exchanges with North Korea is in jeopardy after the candidate of his liberal Democratic Party lost the March 9 election by a razor-thin margin to Yoon Suk-yeol, who championed a more hawkish stance on North Korea during the campaign.
In his letter, Mr. Kim appeared to send a vaguely worded message to Mr. Yoon, the incoming president of South Korea. Mr. Kim said that “inter-Korean relations would improve and develop as desired and anticipated by the nation if the north and the south make tireless efforts with hope,” the North Korean news agency said.
Mr. Yoon’s office did not immediately comment publicly on Mr. Kim’s remarks.
During the campaign, Mr. Yoon said he was open to dialogue with North Korea. But like past conservative South Korean leaders, he also emphasized the importance of enforcing sanctions against the North as a tool to pressure North Korea to return to the negotiating table.
11. Koreans may be about to lose a year from their age. Here’s why
A little more background for those unfamiliar with the age conventions in Korea.
Koreans may be about to lose a year from their age. Here’s why
today.com · by Chrissy Callahan · April 21, 2022
Koreans might not be sure how many candles to put on their next birthday cake if the incoming president's plan goes into effect.
Earlier this week, South Korea President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's team spoke out about plans to remove the country's "Korean age" system, Yonhap News Agency reported.
In the U.S. and many countries around the world, people turn one year older on their birthday and aren't considered to be 1 year old until a whole year has passed since their birth. In South Korea, however, there are three different systems in use to determine someone's age, so depending on which system is being used, you could be one of three different ages.
- Korean age system: People are considered 1 year old at birth (since they have technically been developing for nine months of pregnancy), and their age gains another year every New Year's Day. For instance, if you were born in December 2020, you'd be a 3-year-old right now.
- International birthday system: You turn a year older on the date of your birth every year. Anyone born in December 2020 would be a 1-year-old now (or technically, 16 months old).
- New Year birthday system: You are considered 0 years old when you’re born and add a year to your age on New Year's Day. So a baby born in December 2020 would be a 2-year-old now since they've been alive for two New Year's Day celebrations.
While other countries have stopped using multiple aging systems and adopted the international aging system over the years, Korea has continued to use its traditional age system and the others, Sohn told TODAY.
With so many competing systems in place, it’s not surprising that the incoming president wants to simplify things. But there’s also some legal motivation behind the change.
In a recent press briefing, Rep. Lee Yong-ho, a member of the transition team, explained that the plan is to get rid of the three separate systems and use only the international birthday system.
“Due to the different calculations of legal and social age, we have experienced unnecessary social and economic costs from persistent confusion and disputes over calculating age when receiving social, welfare and other administrative services or signing or interpreting various contracts,” he said.
During his campaign, Yoon spoke about his plans for a unified age system. The hope is to put the plan into action this year, get it passed before the end of 2023 and have the change implemented in phases.
While explaining the various age systems, Sohn told TODAY that Korea has already been mostly using the international system in legal matters.
“The traditional (Korean age) system didn’t really intervene much. It might’ve caused some confusion when people asked how old you are in social conversations; however, I don’t think it was a major confusion,” the historian said.
Sohn said she imagines that the Korean government is keen on "maximizing efficiency" and officially getting rid of the multiple aging systems on paper so there's no room for confusion legally.
Culturally, however, the Korean age and New Year age systems have created a sense of “communal celebration,” Sohn said. That's because everyone has traditionally turned one year older together on New Year's Day.
In Korea, the idea of "friendship" is also rooted in age.
"The term 'friends' means you're in the same age group. (You) become one big communal group," Sohn explained. "Even if you’re born two months apart, you’re the same age. The proposed change is probably going to disintegrate the sense of 'friendship' in the cultural sense."
However, Sohn believes that over time, younger generations will embrace the standardized international aging system and that it might create a renewed sense of time and community in its own way.
today.com · by Chrissy Callahan · April 21, 2022
12. South Korea’s Supreme Court Issues Landmark Ruling on Gay Sex
Rule of law.
South Korea’s Supreme Court Issues Landmark Ruling on Gay Sex
The court said that the military should not punish consensual sex acts that had taken place in a nonmilitary setting.
South Korean Marines patrolling on Yeonpyeong Island, South Korea, in 2020.Credit...Kim In-Chul/Yonhap, via Associated Press
By
April 21, 2022, 9:46 a.m. ET
SEOUL — The Supreme Court of South Korea issued a landmark ruling against the military’s decades-old ban on homosexual activities on Thursday, striking down guilty verdicts for two male soldiers who were indicted on a charge of having consensual sex while off their base.
South Korea’s Military Criminal Act calls for up to two years in prison for “anal intercourse or other indecent acts.” Until now, soldiers engaged in such activities had been punished under that law regardless of whether there was mutual consent or where the conduct took place. Rights groups have long condemned the law, saying it permits a “witch hunt” against gay soldiers.
In its ruling on Thursday, the Supreme Court said that the law should not apply to consensual sex away from a military setting.
The two accused men, a first lieutenant and a master sergeant, were indicted on charges of breaking the military code after they were found to have had sex in a private house during off-duty hours in 2016. Lower military courts sentenced the lieutenant to four months in jail and the sergeant to three months; the sentences were suspended.
Punishing the two soldiers for this violated “their sexual autonomy” and “the constitutionally guaranteed right to equality and human dignity, as well as their right to pursue happiness,” the top court said on Thursday, sending the case back to a lower military court.
Human rights groups hailed the verdict, calling it “a major step forward” or “a huge victory” for the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex people.
“This groundbreaking decision is an important triumph in the fight against discrimination faced by L.G.B.T.I. people in South Korea,” said Boram Jang, Amnesty International’s East Asia researcher, in an emailed statement. “The criminalization of consensual same-sex sexual acts in South Korea’s military has long been a shocking violation of human rights, but today’s ruling should pave the way for military personnel to freely live their lives without the threat of prosecution.”
Lim Tae-hoon, head of the Seoul-based Center for Military Human Rights Korea, urged the country’s Constitutional Court to follow up by ruling the military code that outlaws gay sex unconstitutional. The court has ruled the law constitutional three times since 2002 and it is deliberating on the question for a fourth time.
The South Korean military did not immediately comment on Thursday’s ruling. In the past it has said that it was not discriminating against gay soldiers. But it said it wanted to root out illegal homosexual activities and protect morale and discipline among soldiers.
Rights groups have long lamented what they called the “archaic and discriminatory” military code and a pervasive stigmatization faced by L.G.B.T.I. people in the country in general and in the military in particular. The two soldiers were among a score of gay soldiers rounded up in 2017 on the suspicion of having same-sex relationships.
Last year, a transgender woman who had been expelled by the military after her gender-reassignment surgery killed herself while campaigning to be reinstated.
South Korea maintains a 620,000-strong military as a bulwark against North Korea, with which it remains technically at war.
The 1950-53 Korean War was halted in a truce, not a peace treaty. South Korea operates a conscription system, which obliges all eligible men to serve about 20 months.
In South Korea, same-sex marriage is not recognized and the rights of sexual minorities are a largely taboo and politically unpopular subject. In recent years, powerful right-wing Christian groups have intensified a campaign against homosexuality, scuttling a bill that would have given sexual minorities the same protections as other minority groups.
They have argued that sex among gay soldiers would spread AIDS in the South Korean military and undermine its readiness to fight North Korea.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
