Quotes of the day:
"It is not numbers or strength that bring the victories in war. No, it is when one side goes against the enemy with the gods' gift of a stronger morale that their adversaries, as a rule, cannot withstand them."
- Xenophon
"War is what happens when language fails."
- Margaret Atwood
"The chief reason warfare is still with us is neither a secret death-wish of the human species, nor an irrepressible instinct of aggression, nor, finally and more plausibly, the serious economic and social dangers inherent in disarmament, but the simple fact that no substitute for this final arbiter in international affairs has yet appeared on the political scene."
-Nannah Arendt
1. NEW HRNK REPORT HIGHLIGHTS THE TRANSMISSION OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION ALONG THE (NORTH) KOREAN PEOPLE’S ARMY (KPA)’S CHAIN OF COMMAND AS WELL AS THE SURREPTITIOUS CONSUMPTION OF INFORMATION FROM THE OUTSIDE WORLD
2. North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Are Here to Stay
3. Kim Jong Un hints he might use nukes as more than deterrent
4. Nuclear arms not just a deterrent, says Kim
5. Kim Jong Un Underlines North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities in Military Parade
6. U.S. objective remains complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula: State Dept.
7. See the weapons on display during North Korea’s latest parade
8. N. Korea uses footage of young women caught wearing “capitalist” clothing in lectures
9. North Korea’s new sub missile aims for US mainland
10. N. Korea poses serious threat to peace, nonproliferation regime: DoD spokesperson
11. Ex-president Park coming to Yoon's inauguration
12. Putting strained relations back on track
13. Self-destructive behavior - Allies should thwart North's threat to use nukes
14. North Korea struggling to secure 'advanced' nuclear technology: expert
15. North Korean state media airs footage of military parade
16. North Korea lowers threshold for nuclear use: experts
17. Ramstein meeting gives birth to global 'contact group' to support Ukraine
1. NEW HRNK REPORT HIGHLIGHTS THE TRANSMISSION OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION ALONG THE (NORTH) KOREAN PEOPLE’S ARMY (KPA)’S CHAIN OF COMMAND AS WELL AS THE SURREPTITIOUS CONSUMPTION OF INFORMATION FROM THE OUTSIDE WORLD
This report is a must read for all PSYOP professionals who are focused on north Korea and anyone with responsibility for conducting strategic influence through information advantage.
It is essential for understanding how the north Korean People's Army communicates information to its soldiers throughout the "chain of control" (chain of command) but it is also essential for helping to develop and design the information and influence activities campaign that we must implement.
George Hutchinson, the author, during his presentation at the report launch, explained the nKPA soldier receives about 10,000 hours of indoctrination. One escapee said that given 10,000 hours of indoctrination any lie can be turned into a truth.
This is really important because now we have scholarly work to cite that confirms so much of our anecdotal evidence.
So much to talk about based on this report, We need a strategic influence campaign that is compresheivesive, holistic, and aggressive. We have an opportunity with the new President in the South.
I hope we can take advantage of this opportunity.
The 116 page report can be downloaded here.
NEW HRNK REPORT HIGHLIGHTS THE TRANSMISSION OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION ALONG THE (NORTH) KOREAN PEOPLE’S ARMY (KPA)’S CHAIN OF COMMAND AS WELL AS THE SURREPTITIOUS CONSUMPTION OF INFORMATION FROM THE OUTSIDE WORLD
WASHINGTON, APRIL 26, 2022. The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) releases today a comprehensive study scrutinizing the circulation of information within the KPA. George Hutchinson’s Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA is the second of three installments in a multi-year HRNK project to examine North Korea’s information environment.
Since the humanitarian crisis of the 1990s, more information from the outside world has been entering North Korea, following the informal markets and supply lines established from the Sino-North Korean border to the capital city of Pyongyang. The North Korean regime has been cracking down on such information and has been suppressing those accessing it, especially since early 2020, under the pretext of COVID prevention.
Understanding how KPA soldiers receive their information is needed to prepare information campaigns while taking into account all possible contingencies. The report examines official propaganda and indoctrination delivered to North Korean soldiers, all along the chain of control and command. The report also examines the media vehicles and content that reach North Korean soldiers, in particular those forward-deployed south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line, who constitute 70 to 80 percent of the KPA.
Author George Hutchinson assures readers that “Army of the Indoctrinated contains insights, findings, and recommendations based on research and in-depth interviews with former KPA soldiers that explain how information is processed and consumed in the KPA.” According to Hutchinson, “the report provides analysts, strategists and other policy practitioners an important piece to the puzzle of North Korea’s information environment vital for the development of contingency planning.”
HRNK Director of Operations and Research Raymond Ha states: “As the international community contends with the serious security concerns posed by North Korea’s ever-advancing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, it is more important than ever to grasp the day-to-day lives of the men and women who make up the KPA. To anticipate how they may react in a range of potential contingencies, it is first necessary to assess what they can and cannot perceive, based on the official and unofficial information they have at their disposal. Army of the Indoctrinated makes a vital contribution in this regard.”
North Korean escapee and HRNK Social Media Associate Doohyun Kim points out: “This report describes in great detail information circulation in North Korea, which is completely isolated from the outside, especially the information circulation and command system of the North Korean military. Through this report, you can learn the way North Korean soldiers consume outside information even under the strict control of the North Korean government, and the quantity and quality of information accessible between classes differ greatly.”
According to HRNK Executive Director Greg Scarlatoiu, “lack of access to vital information about both domestic and international developments can spell disaster in case of a Korean peninsula contingency.” Scarlatoiu adds: “The report provides material needed to understand the human rights situation of KPA soldiers, in particular their access to information. The report also helps prepare for armed conflict and/or regime collapse, to avoid catastrophe induced by lack of information, but also to sustain internal resistance, if needed, to provide lines of emergency communication outside regime control, and to prepare for complex humanitarian emergencies.”
2. North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Are Here to Stay
Excerpts:
Kim largely reiterated North Korea’s nuclear declaratory policy in a speech at the parade. “The fundamental mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war,” Kim said, adding that “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission.”
This language is largely consistent with older North Korean declaratory statements concerning the role and possible use of nuclear weapons. North Korea has always reserved the right to use nuclear weapons first to blunt an invading force even as it asserts that it possesses nuclear weapons primarily to deter such an invasion in the first place.
The big picture here is that North Korea is keeping things crystal clear about its broader intentions: at any and all costs, it will sustain its military capabilities and nuclear deterrent. Parades like this one help convey that message both internally and externally.
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Are Here to Stay
North Korean military parades used to be somewhat of a novelty, but that appears to have changed in recent years. This parade marked the fourth in the last two years, coming on the heels of similar celebrations in October 2020, January 2021, and September 2021. In his first five years in power, Kim oversaw just three military parades. After declaring his nuclear deterrent “complete” in November 2017, Kim observed three more parades.
The intensification of the tempo of military parades also comes at a time when Kim has been open about North Korea’s internal difficulties: he openly lamented the failure of his economic agenda in October 2020, just ten months after North Korea declared the then-novel coronavirus “epidemic” in China a threat to its national survival.
But despite this apparent reckoning with the country’s economic difficulties, which include disappointing harvests and possible famine-line conditions in North Korea’s more remote regions, there’s no backing down from celebrating the self-reliant national defense industry. Not only has Kim held four military parades during this difficult time, but he has overseen a return to large-scale weapons testing and even an inaugural defense exposition in Pyongyang, which took place last October.
Internally, this emphasis on the national defense industry placates important stakeholders, including the military. Men like Jang Chang Ha, Jon Il Ho, Kim Jong Sik—North Korea’s well-known “missile men”—and, more importantly, Vice Marshal Pak Jong Chon have been granted tremendous prominence. At the defense exposition last year, these men were featured in massive photographs alongside Kim Jong Un himself.
For the North Korean people—particularly the civilians in Pyongyang who attend these parades—these repeated demonstrations of military might serve to emphasize that their sacrifices have not been for naught, as perverse as that may seem to outsiders who might see these displays as a sign of Kim’s disregard for his people’s welfare.
The big picture here is that North Korea is far from backing down from investing in its military and nuclear capabilities more broadly. The hardware shown at the parade was largely familiar, including the Hwasong-17 heavy intercontinental-range ballistic missile and new hypersonic weapons tested in the last several months. With the exception of a new solid-propellant missile that may be a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, there was little new in the way of hardware.
Several systems that were flight-tested for the first time since the last parade were included. A new maneuverable reentry vehicle-capable medium-range ballistic missile, first tested in January, was paraded. The parade also included the first appearance of the new short-range submarine-launched ballistic missile that was tested last October. Alongside these systems, North Korea also showed off the Hwasong-8 hypersonic glide vehicle, which was tested in September 2021.
The new solid-propellant missile is interesting since it is the third of its type to be shown at a parade without having seen any flight testing. North Korea previously paraded the Pukguksong-4 in October 2020 and the Pukguksong-5 in January 2021, but neither has been flight-tested. The newly paraded missile appears to be slightly longer, which would make it perhaps the longest-range solid-fuel missile known to exist in North Korea today. We should expect to see these missiles tested in due time. Kim has emphasized an interest in developing solid-fuel ICBMs as part of his ongoing 8th Party Congress modernization agenda.
Kim largely reiterated North Korea’s nuclear declaratory policy in a speech at the parade. “The fundamental mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war,” Kim said, adding that “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission.”
This language is largely consistent with older North Korean declaratory statements concerning the role and possible use of nuclear weapons. North Korea has always reserved the right to use nuclear weapons first to blunt an invading force even as it asserts that it possesses nuclear weapons primarily to deter such an invasion in the first place.
The big picture here is that North Korea is keeping things crystal clear about its broader intentions: at any and all costs, it will sustain its military capabilities and nuclear deterrent. Parades like this one help convey that message both internally and externally.
Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on the Asia-Pacific region, his research interests range from nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, emerging technologies, and U.S. extended deterrence. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea (Hurst Publishers/Oxford University Press, 2020).
A widely published writer, Panda’s work has appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Diplomat, the Atlantic, the New Republic, the South China Morning Post, War on the Rocks, Politico, and the National Interest. Panda has also published in scholarly journals, including Survival, the Washington Quarterly, and India Review, and has contributed to the IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment and Strategic Survey. He is editor-at-large at the Diplomat, where he hosts the Asia Geopolitics podcast, and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks.
3. Kim Jong Un hints he might use nukes as more than deterrent
The buried lede: possible problems within the north Korean People's Army. We need to be observing for the indicators. Will there be a breakdown among the three military chains of control (traditional military chain, politico chain, and security chain).
Excerpts:
The General Political Bureau of the People’s Army used the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the KPRA’s founding to issue a directive to soldiers that they have the responsibility of “protecting the system as the military of the supreme leader,” a military source in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service Monday on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
But the source said that there was discontent brewing among the troops.
“The soldiers and even military officials criticize their leaders for designating them as a ‘spearhead’ for protection of the [current political system], without treating them accordingly. … [The order] emphasizes protecting the system but does not say anything about improving the military supply situation, so many soldiers scoff at the directive,” the military source said.
In North Pyongan province, in the northwest, another military source told RFA the directive included instructions to boost troop morale.
“The [recent] test firings of strategic and tactical weapons … induced the morale of the soldiers which has fallen due to hard training and a poor military supply system. It says that we can respond to any type of war,” the second source said.
“Officials and soldiers reacted that they feel that this propaganda, touting them as the strongest military in the world, is absurd. They question how…, saying they are just workers in military uniforms who are unable to eat enough food.”
Kim Jong Un hints he might use nukes as more than deterrent
The North Korean leader used the army’s 90th anniversary to trumpet the strength of his forces.
By RFA’s Korean Service
2022.04.26
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Monday vowed to boost his nuclear weapons program and said the weapons could be used “in any situations of warfare” as he observed a massive military parade that showed off Pyongyang’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), state media reported.
Kim Jong Un emphasized the need to strengthen the North Korea’s military capabilities, with an emphasis on nuclear development, in a speech before the parade that analysts in Seoul and Washington said were troubling.
“In particular, the nuclear forces, the symbol of our national strength and the core of our military power, should be strengthened in terms of both quality and scale, so that they can perform nuclear combat capabilities in any situations of warfare, according to purposes and missions of different operations and by various means,” the state-run Korea Central News Agency reported him as saying.
The event commemorated the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army (KPRA), which under the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, waged guerilla attacks against the Japanese army in and around the Korean peninsula. The elder Kim is Kim Jong Un’s grandfather.
Pyongyang has been actively testing short and long-range missiles to display its military power, with a more conservative administration about to take over the government in South Korea and talks with the U.S. over denuclearization stalled.
Officials in Washington and Seoul have said that activity at North Korea’s nuclear testing site may indicate that Pyongyang is preparing to resume tests there.
Kim said in the speech that the purpose of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal is to deter attacks, but also suggested that the weapons could be used for other purposes.
“Our nukes can never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent even at a time when a situation we are not desirous of at all is created on this land,” Kim said. “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission.”
The parade included the country’s largest known ICBM, the Hwasong-17, which Pyongyang claims to have successfully tested last month. South Korean officials have said that the Hwasong-17 exploded prematurely during the test and North Korea tested a less-advanced missile a few days later, claiming it was the Hwasong-17.
State media made a point of showing Kim shaking hands with military officials as the Hwasong-17 rolled by them.
People at a train station in Seoul, South Korea watch a TV screen showing a news program reporting about North Korea's military parade, Tuesday, April 26, 2022. Photo: AP
De-escalation urged
Officials in South Korea urged the North to stop raising tensions on the peninsula.
“The South Korean government, above all else, urges North Korea to immediately stop any actions that cause tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the region,” South Korea’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Choi Young-sam said.
The presidential transition committee for South Korean President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol, who will assume office on May 10, said in a statement that close cooperation with the U.S. was necessary to deter North Korean threats.
South Korean analysts said that Kim’s words signified a significant shift regarding North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
“North Korea’s supreme leader has explicitly stated that [nuclear weapons] are no longer a means of self-defense, but they are now for attack,” Kwak Gil Sup of Kookmin University in Seoul told RFA’s Korean Service.
This increases the likelihood that North Korea would attempt to use nuclear weapons to resolve crises, Cho Han Bum of the Seoul-based Korea Institute of National Unification told RFA.
“By significantly expanding the scope of the use of nuclear weapons, it is possible to use nuclear weapons in such attempts as regime crises, internal crises and regime changes,” said Cho.
Analysts in the U.S. meanwhile expressed doubts that the Hwasong-17 in the parade was real, but agreed that Kim Jong Un’s comments about his nuclear ambitions were troubling.
“What we see in the parade may only be a mockup, [and] may not be a real missile, either,” David Maxwell, a former Army officer and now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told RFA.
“I think it's safe to say that Kim Jong Un is trying to show us advanced military capabilities, which on the one hand support his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy to raise tensions to make threats. And they use these provocations to gain political and economic concessions,” Maxwell said.
Bruce W. Bennett, a counterproliferation expert at the RAND Corporation, told RFA that Kim Jong Un’s comments about nuclear weapons were “worrisome.”
“He's trying to be scary and make it look like he's capable. And then he says, ‘Hey, guys, bother me, and I'll use nuclear weapons.’ You know, it's a threat,” he said. “And especially given that he's facing internal instability, [it] does make us wonder where things are going on the peninsula.”
People at a train station in Seoul, South Korea watch a TV screen showing a news program reporting about North Korea's military parade, Tuesday, April 26, 2022. Photo: AP
The General Political Bureau of the People’s Army used the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the KPRA’s founding to issue a directive to soldiers that they have the responsibility of “protecting the system as the military of the supreme leader,” a military source in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service Monday on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
But the source said that there was discontent brewing among the troops.
“The soldiers and even military officials criticize their leaders for designating them as a ‘spearhead’ for protection of the [current political system], without treating them accordingly. … [The order] emphasizes protecting the system but does not say anything about improving the military supply situation, so many soldiers scoff at the directive,” the military source said.
In North Pyongan province, in the northwest, another military source told RFA the directive included instructions to boost troop morale.
“The [recent] test firings of strategic and tactical weapons … induced the morale of the soldiers which has fallen due to hard training and a poor military supply system. It says that we can respond to any type of war,” the second source said.
“Officials and soldiers reacted that they feel that this propaganda, touting them as the strongest military in the world, is absurd. They question how…, saying they are just workers in military uniforms who are unable to eat enough food.”
Translated by Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
4. Nuclear arms not just a deterrent, says Kim
Strategy without geography is like ... insert some kind of metaphor here. The bottomline is strategists cannot do strategy without an appreciation for geography.
Excerpts:
But overall, Pinkston does not believe that the balance of power has or will significantly change. His reasoning is based more on geography than strategy.
“The Koreas don’t have the strategic depth or the landmass of Russia, China or the US,” he said. “Once the nuclear threshold has been crossed, North Korea does not have the strategic depth to absorb many nuclear strikes.”
As a result, he said, assured destruction remains viable.
“The North Koreans are not jihadists or suicide bombers, they are rationalists. Look how long they have survived,” Pinkston said. “What is critical [for South Korea and its allies] is having the capability, and demonstrating the resolve, to deliver unacceptable punishment.”
Nuclear arms not just a deterrent, says Kim
North Korean leader’s statement at a military parade reveals new and broader parameters for the use of nuclear weapons
SEOUL – In the jittery new, post-Ukraine invasion world, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has stated openly that his nuclear arsenal is no longer simply a deterrent.
Speaking at a late-night military parade on Monday night, he said his nuclear force “can never be confined to a single mission.”
Kim added, according to excerpts of his speech carried in state media: “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear force will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected mission.”
Colossal strategic ambiguity is baked into the phrase “the fundamental interests of our state.” But what is clear is that Kim’s nuclear force has widened its previous doctrinal parameters.
Kim’s candid announcement should not surprise North Korea watchers. It had been pre-signaled as early as 2021 and by a range of weapons tests this year.
The statement follows 13 tests of varied delivery systems this year. They include missile types appropriate for delivering nuclear warheads to battlefields, rather than the huge, and photogenic, intercontinental ballistic missiles that heft strategic nuclear warheads into the atmosphere.
North Korea’s leader also made clear his intent to continue developing his nuclear arsenal – an intention widely repeated in headlines. But that is classic, often-repeated Kim-talk.
Conversely, Kim’s statement on the expanded role of his nuclear force overturns years of conventional wisdom.
A North Korean ballistic missile. Photo: WikiCommons
Emerging offensive stance
Ever since 2006, when North Korea first tested a nuclear device, the broad understanding among analysts and observers has been that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal exists to deter an Iraq- or Afghanistan-style attack by nuclear-armed US forces.
Some say the possession of nuclear arms also gives North Korea a stronger voice in its dealings with China. But the bottom line is that they underwrite the North Korean state and the Kim regime.
Of late, cracks have appeared in this long-held belief.
As previously reported in Asia Times, North Korea has been gradually shifting toward weapons of use, rather than weapons of non-use. And this year, it has likely taken note of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent practice.
Putin has verbally ring-fenced his conventional invasion of Ukraine by threatening nuclear retaliation against any outside states which dare to intervene.
Could that strategy be replicated on the Korean Peninsula? That is unknown. But while Kim is talking a good game, it is not clear that he has the capabilities in place to put it into practice. At least, not yet.
Kim has not tested a nuclear device since 2017. And all devices tested so far have ignited the kind of kilotonnes required for city-shattering strategic weapons.
But at a 2021 Party Congress, Kim announced a vast new list of weapons, including tactical nuclear arms. Such weapons, with smaller yields, are designed for use on the battlefield, often not simply to destroy, but to deny an area to an enemy. It is known as “grid square removal.”
“We are talking a small nuclear weapon that is useful for military targets, missile bases, but also assembly areas, airfields and harbors,” Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general, told Asia Times.
Ominously for South Korea’s defense, US forces would require that kind of facility to reinforce the peninsula if hostilities broke out.
Now reports are circulating about new tunneling at North Korea’s underground nuclear test site at Punggye-ri. This activity could suggest an upcoming test.
Even before Kim’s announcement on Tuesday, there was little doubt he was developing tactical atomic arms.
In January, Kim tested a hypersonic missile, a weapon US and South Korean missile defenses cannot counter. That would be an appropriate delivery vehicle for a tactical nuke.
In April, Kim personally attended the test of a “new-type tactical guided weapon” that could upgrade “efficiency in the operation of tactical nukes,” the North’s official media reported.
Still, if Pyongyang is to expand its nuclear forces from the strategic to the tactical level, it will require significant organization. Artillery units, rather than simply strategic rocket forces, will have to gain access to atomic weapon stockpiles, undertake new training and be incorporated in command-and-control nets.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un points to a device with the characteristic two-hemisphere peanut shape of a fusion bomb in an image released by North Korean state media in 2017. Officials in Pyongyang said the object was a hydrogen bomb. Photo: Korean Central News Agency / AGU
Will Seoul go critical?
No tactical nuclear weapon has yet been used in war. In fact, there are multiple unknowns.
“Nobody has been able to demonstrate the utility of nuclear weapons for compellence as opposed to deterrence,” said Daniel Pinkston, a US Air Force veteran and a professor of international relations at the Seoul-based Troy University.
“If you deter, you are maintaining the status quo. If you compel, you are changing the status quo.”
The ongoing arming by North Korea may add punch to the arguments of those South Koreans who are pushing to go critical.
“The only logical answer from the South Korean perspective is to have [US] nukes based on the peninsula, or for South Korea to have its own nuclear weapons,” Chun said. “That is where we are headed, in my view.”
Given the shakiness of the global non-proliferation regime, if Seoul goes down that path, pushback could be minimal.
Like-minded nations are unlikely to take South Korea to task if it arms itself with nuclear weapons, one analyst told Seoul-based correspondents on Tuesday at a press conference on EU-South Korea relations.
“Frankly, I don’t see any appetite to go tough on South Korea if they say, ‘We are going to develop nuclear weapons,’” said Ramon Pacheo Pardo, who teaches at the Brussels School of Governance and at King’s College London.
“And the same with Japan and Taiwan. I don’t see the EU doing anything other than a statement of official condemnation.”
Right-wing President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol speaks to foreign reporters in Seoul after winning a bitterly fought election. Photo: Asia Times / Andrew Salmon
A change of direction?
Ongoing weapons testing by North Korea, and the imminent arrival in office of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration – which is conservative and more hawkish than the liberal Moon Jae-in administration, which made peaceful cross-border engagement a standout policy – could also accelerate alliance-building in the region.
Yoon, who takes power on May 10, has repeatedly said he wants to patch up ever-frayed relations with Japan. On Tuesday (April 26), high-profile members of his transition team were greeted in Tokyo by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
While details of that meeting are still scarce, Northeast Asia security was almost certainly an agenda item.
But overall, Pinkston does not believe that the balance of power has or will significantly change. His reasoning is based more on geography than strategy.
“The Koreas don’t have the strategic depth or the landmass of Russia, China or the US,” he said. “Once the nuclear threshold has been crossed, North Korea does not have the strategic depth to absorb many nuclear strikes.”
As a result, he said, assured destruction remains viable.
“The North Koreans are not jihadists or suicide bombers, they are rationalists. Look how long they have survived,” Pinkston said. “What is critical [for South Korea and its allies] is having the capability, and demonstrating the resolve, to deliver unacceptable punishment.”
Follow Andrew Salmon on Twitter: @Andrewcsalmon
5. Kim Jong Un Underlines North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities in Military Parade
north Korea wants to be a revolutionary nuclear power.
Will there be an Asian arms race?
Excerpts:
Based on Pyongyang’s five-year military modernization plan, there will likely be no room to restore the stalled nuclear talks or inter-Korean dialogue. In his speech, Kim also ordered his military to be “a powerful army equipped with highly advanced military technology.”
The arms race on the Korean Peninsula looks set to intensify in coming years after Yoon Suk-yeol, the president-elect of South Korea, takes office. South Korea-U.S. joint military drills are ongoing at the moment; North Korea will likely respond to them by testing advanced missiles in coming weeks.
Kim Jong Un Underlines North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities in Military Parade
North Korea held a military parade to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army on Monday.
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North Korea held a military parade on April 25 to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the North’s state media, reported. North Korea was expected to hold a military parade at noon on Monday, but based on KCNA’s reports the parade was held at night.
Kim Jong Un, the North’s supreme leader, made a speech at the event and firmly showed off his strong will to bolster the country’s nuclear capabilities. He also ordered his officials to develop the country’s defense science and munitions industry in order to deploy “actual combat cutting-edge military hardware of new generations” to increase Pyongyang’s military power.
“In particular, the nuclear forces, the symbol of our national strength and the core of our military power, should be strengthened in terms of both quality and scale, so that they can perform nuclear combat capabilities in any situations of warfare, according to purposes and missions of different operations and by various means,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying.
To justify the country’s nuclear armament and missile tests, Kim said that his nuclear weapons are for self-defense, not to target any countries. Kim also conveyed this stance during the inter-Korean summit meetings and nuclear talks with the United States in 2018 and 2019, which sought to remove the devastating economic sanctions in exchange for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, the nuclear talks stalled due to Washington and Pyongyang’s different views on the specific steps and extent of the denuclearization process. Since then, North Korea has readopted its old school policy against Seoul and Washington: raising the ante on the negotiating table by testing its missiles without answering their offers of dialogue.
Kim expanded the boundary of self-defense – and the circumstances for using his nuclear weapons – in yesterday’s speech, showing his clear and strong will to keep building up his nuclear weapons as a countermeasure against the threats of North Korea’s adversaries.
“The fundamental mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war, but our nukes can never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent even at a time when a situation we are not desirous of at all is created on this land,” Kim said. “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission.”
Kim’s remarks may hint at an upcoming nuclear test. Based on published satellite images of North Korea’s nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, experts say Pyongyang has been restoring the site. Kim has already crossed the red line by testing a North Korean ICBM last month. Pyongyang’s next steps will likely involve either sending a reconnaissance satellite into orbit in a disguised space rocket launch to test its new ICBM system or conducting tests of other advanced ballistic missiles, such as solid fuel ballistic missiles or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
In the military parade, the Hwasong-17, the larger and improved version of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, was shown off along with other ballistic missiles. Experts are now analyzing the advanced missile weapons that were showcased in yesterday’s event.
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Based on Pyongyang’s five-year military modernization plan, there will likely be no room to restore the stalled nuclear talks or inter-Korean dialogue. In his speech, Kim also ordered his military to be “a powerful army equipped with highly advanced military technology.”
The arms race on the Korean Peninsula looks set to intensify in coming years after Yoon Suk-yeol, the president-elect of South Korea, takes office. South Korea-U.S. joint military drills are ongoing at the moment; North Korea will likely respond to them by testing advanced missiles in coming weeks.
CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR
Mitch Shin
Mitch Shin is Chief Koreas Correspondent for The Diplomat and a non-resident Research Fellow of the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), Stockholm Korea Center.
6. U.S. objective remains complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula: State Dept.
We will not deviate from this objective.
But just to reiterate:
Bottom Line: the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
(LEAD) U.S. objective remains complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from state department spokesperson, minor changes throughout; CHANGES headline, lead; RESTRUCTURES; ADDS photo)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 26 (Yonhap) -- The United States' objective remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, a state department spokesperson said Tuesday, despite North Korea's pledge to further strengthen its nuclear capabilities.
Ned Price also reiterated the U.S. holds no hostility toward the North, urging the reclusive country to return to dialogue.
"Our goal remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,:" the department press secretary said in a press briefing.
The remarks come after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said his country will work to strengthen its nuclear capabilities at the "fastest possible speed."
Kim made the remarks during a massive military parade held in Pyongyang on Monday (Seoul time) where the North showcased a wide range of weapons of mass destruction, including a new "giant" intercontinental ballistic missile, known as the Hwasong-17.
"We are aware of what he (Kim) said. It reiterates our assessment that the DPRK constitutes a threat to international peace and security and to the global nonproliferation regime," Price said.
His view was echoed by a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), who said the U.S. will adopt an approach that works while dealing with North Korea.
"The DoD and U.S. government will assess the threat North Korea poses and adopt an approach that works in close coordination with allies and partners to address it," the department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an emailed response to questions regarding the North Korean leaders' remarks.
The state department has consistently vowed to engage with North Korea in diplomacy and dialogue since the Joe Biden administration took office in January 2021.
Pyongyang, however, remains unresponsive to all U.S. overtures while avoiding denuclearization talks with the U.S. since late 2019.
Price reaffirmed U.S. commitment to engage with North Korea.
"We harbor no hostile intent toward the DPRK. We do remain open to engaging in diplomacy and dialogue with the DPRK with an aim of achieving progress towards that overall objective," he told the press briefing.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The U.S. will still continue to hold North Korea accountable for its recent provocations, according to Price.
"But we also have an obligation to address the recent provocations that we have seen from the DPRK, including its two recent ICBM launches," he said.
"We have an obligation to enforce the U.N. Security Council resolutions that are in place. Those are obligations that we'll continue to work on very closely with our allies in the region, with our partners in the region and with our allies and partners at the U.N.," added Price.
He also reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea and other U.S. allies.
"We have a vital interest together with our allies and partners around the world but especially those in the Indo-Pacific to deter the DPRK, to defend against its provocations or its use of force, to limit the reach of its most dangerous weapons programs, and above all, to keep safe American people in the region, our deployed forces and our allies, Japan and the ROK," he said, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
(END)
7. See the weapons on display during North Korea’s latest parade
I like the troops marching in their ghillie suits.
See the weapons on display during North Korea’s latest parade
Image 1 of 12
Kim Jong Un North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, delivers a speech during a military parade to mark the 90th anniversary of North Korea's Army at the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, on April 25, 2022. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons and threatened to use them if provoked in a speech he delivered at a military parade that featured powerful missiles capable of targeting the country’s rivals, state media reported Tuesday.
Kim’s remarks suggest he will continue provocative weapons tests in a pressure campaign aimed at wresting concessions from the United States and its allies. The parade Monday night marked the 90th anniversary of North Korea’s Army — the backbone of the Kim family’s authoritarian rule — and was held as the country’s economy is battered by pandemic-related difficulties, its own mismanagement, and punishing, American-led sanctions.
State television showed Kim, dressed in a white military ceremonial coat, smiling and waving from a balcony with his wife, Ri Sol Ju, and top deputies in response to roaring cheers from thousands of troops and spectators. Fireworks lit up the night sky, and illuminated drones formed the country’s flag.
“[We] will continue to take measures for further developing the nuclear forces of our state at the fastest possible speed,” Kim told the troops and crowd gathered at a plaza in the capital, Pyongyang.
He said North Korea could proactively use its nuclear weapons when threatened by attacks and called for his nuclear forces to be fully prepared to go “in motion at any time.”
“The fundamental mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war, but our nukes can never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent even at a time when a situation we are not desirous of at all is created on this land,” Kim said. “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission,” which would leave any invading force “perished,” he said.
The parade featured thousands of goose-stepping troops and several of North Korea’s most powerful missiles. Some of the intercontinental ballistic missiles could put the U.S. homeland well within range, and a variety of shorter-range solid-fuel missiles pose a growing threat to South Korea and Japan.
North Korea has described some of the short-range missiles as “tactical” battlefield systems, which experts say suggests a threat to arm them with small nuclear devices and use them during conventional warfare to overcome the stronger conventional forces of its neighbors and the United States. The U.S. stations about 80,000 soldiers in South Korea and Japan.
One of the weapons showcased at the brightly illuminated Kim Il Sung Square, named after Kim’s late grandfather and state founder, was North Korea’s biggest and newest ICBM, the Hwasong-17.
North Korea claimed to have test-fired that missile successfully last month, but South Korea concluded the launch was of the smaller Hwasong-15 and that a launch of the Hwasong-17 had failed. Whichever weapon it was, the launch on March 24 was North Korea’s first full-range ICBM flight test in more than four years and flew longer and higher than any other missile North Korea has previously launched.
The official Korean Central News Agency said spectators at the parade raised loud cheers when they saw the Hwasong-17, which it said showed “the absolute power of Juche (self-reliance), Korea and the strategic position of our republic to the world.”
Other weapons rolled out at the parade included what appeared to be a hypersonic missile North Korea first tested in 2021 and a new type of ballistic missile designed to be fired from submarines, an ability North Korea has been pursuing for years.
North Korea often commemorates key state anniversaries by mobilizing huge crowds to boost internal unity. Tuesday’s KCNA dispatch praised Kim for accomplishing “the historic great cause of completing the nuclear forces by making a long journey of patriotic devotion with a death-defying will” to make his people free of war.
Kim has been reviving nuclear brinkmanship aimed at forcing the United States to accept North Korea as a nuclear power and to remove crippling economic sanctions, exploiting a favorable environment to push forward its weapons program as the U.N. Security Council remains divided over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have been stalled since 2019 because of disagreements over a potential easing of U.S.-led sanctions in exchange for North Korean disarmament steps. Kim has stuck to his goals of simultaneously developing nuclear weapons and the country’s dismal economy in the face of international pressure and has shown no willingness to fully surrender a nuclear arsenal he sees as his biggest guarantee of survival.
Kim’s comments about the possible use of nuclear weapons and his decision to attend the parade in a military coat, rather than his regular suit and tie, signal a tough approach toward South Korea’s incoming conservative government, which may take a harder line toward Pyongyang than current liberal President Moon Jae-in, according to analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at South Korea’s Sejong Institute.
Calls by Kim for his people to brace for long-term confrontation with “imperialists” show he has no immediate plan to re-engage in denuclearization talks with the United States as he monitors the geopolitical fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war and the rivalry between the U.S. and China, Cheong said.
South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk Yeol, who takes office on May 10, has accused Moon of seeking engagement with North Korea while ignoring a gathering North Korean threat. He has vowed to strengthen South Korea’s defenses in conjunction with its alliance with the U.S., including enhancing preemptive strike capabilities.
“North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles have become a serious and realistic threat four our country and acquiring an ability to deter [the North’s threat] is an urgent task,” Yoon’s office said in a statement.
North Korea has conducted 13 rounds of weapons tests this year. There are also signs North Korea is rebuilding tunnels at a nuclear testing ground that was last active in 2017, possibly in preparation for exploding a nuclear device.
In 2017, North Korea claimed to have acquired the ability to launch nuclear strikes on the U.S. mainland after a torrid run of nuclear and missile tests. It halted such high-profile tests before entering its now-dormant diplomacy with the United States.
Kim’s aggressive military push could also be motivated by domestic politics since he doesn’t otherwise have significant accomplishments to show to his people as he marks a decade in power. He failed to win badly needed sanctions relief from his talks with then-President Donald Trump, and the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed further shocks to the country’s broken economy, forcing him to acknowledge last year that North Korea was facing its " worst-ever situation.”
8. N. Korea uses footage of young women caught wearing “capitalist” clothing in lectures
Regime priorities.
Even clothes are a threat to the regime. Another indicator that the regime fears the Korean people in the north more than it fears the US military.
N. Korea uses footage of young women caught wearing “capitalist” clothing in lectures
Most of the women in the footage are in their 20s and 30s and were forcibly filmed for wearing tight pants or dying their hair
A woman in her 20s forcibly filmed for wearing foreign styles of clothing. (Daily NK)
North Korean authorities have filmed women caught up in crackdowns on “capitalist” fashion and are using the footage in lectures for people in North Hamgyong Province, Daily NK has learned.
Through a source in the country, Daily NK confirmed that the Socialist Patriotic Youth League has recently been using the footage for lectures in Chongjin.
According to the source, the video-based lectures started in early April. At the lectures, the authorities are stressing that wearing one’s clothing and hair in the “North Korean style” plays an important role in establishing a socialist lifestyle.
Basically, the authorities are emphasizing that they will thoroughly crack down on improper dress and hairstyles, labeling them “anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior.”
Meanwhile, Rodong Sinmun reported on Sunday that the party’s consistent position has been the “thorough establishment of socialist lifestyles in all sectors of social life.” The paper also repeated that wearing one’s clothing and hair in the North Korean way plays an important role in establishing a socialist lifestyle.
However, the issue is that young people recently busted by Socialist Patriotic Youth League enforcement teams on the streets of Chongjin appear in the video.
Most of them were women in their 20s and 30s and were forcibly filmed for wearing tight pants or dying their hair. All were regarded as “capitalist delinquents.” In the video, the women are even described as having “indecent clothes” and “impure ideology.”
The video again reveals the country’s propaganda focus that one’s clothing reflects not only one’s appearance but also one’s ideological, spiritual, and cultural “level.”
The lectures reportedly include the statement that adhering to “uniform” fashion is “directly connected to the future of the motherland.” Through such statements, the authorities appear to be aiming to quiet the progressive spirit and creativity of young people while preventing them from growing “ideologically disaffected” through exposure to foreign cultures.
The source said it remains to be seen whether this sort of propaganda will have its intended effect. The authorities have conducted lectures with videos such as this every year since 2018, yet they appear to have had little impact.
The source also said that the fact individual organizations are deploying enforcement teams to engage in crackdowns on top of the activities of a national organization — the “unified command on non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior,” or “Unified Command 82” — suggests these crackdowns are not effective.
In fact, the source said that the authorities have recently been bolstering their struggle against anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior, but more and more young people are wearing their clothes and hair based on what they see in “capitalist movies.” Because of this, the government has put the Socialist Patriotic Youth League on high alert, conducting lectures and workshops to ideologically train young people.
He further reported that young people busted by Socialist Patriotic Youth League enforcers are being dragged before city and county branches of the league where they must write “self-criticism letters,” pledging not to repeat their mistake before being released.
However, young people swept up in the crackdowns continue to flout the norms, subtly dressing and wearing their hair in ways that fly under the fashion police’s radar, he added.
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
9. North Korea’s new sub missile aims for US mainland
But does the regime really have the submarine capabilities both to reach the US or to provide even a rudimentary second strike capability?
North Korea’s new sub missile aims for US mainland
Newly unveiled submarine-launched ballistic missile flexes Pyongyang’s undersea second-strike nuclear capabilities
In another bombastic display of military might, North Korea unveiled a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) during a military parade on April 25, the Korean People’s Army’s (KPA) 90th founding anniversary.
The new SLBM is slightly larger than the Pukguksung-5, which was first revealed in a military parade in January. Analysts believe that the new missile has additional combustion components for a longer range, an enlarged warhead section to carry multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and is theoretically capable of hitting the US mainland.
The new missile is likely intended to be launched from North Korea’s new 3000-ton submarines currently under construction at Sinpo shipyard.
After displaying an array of missiles and other weapons during the parade, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a speech on the country’s new nuclear doctrine, which envisions lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use. However, the leader did not identify his regime’s core interests and stated that North Korea intends to expand the scope of nuclear weapons use.
The speech highlights the evolution of North Korea’s nuclear doctrine. North Korea’s nuclear weapons under Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il were primarily meant to deter an invasion from the US and its allies. This meant preserving the status quo by preventing a pre-emptive attack through assured retaliation and preventing a renewed Korean War using the threat of nuclear escalation.
However, Kim Jong Un has expanded the role of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal not only as a deterrent against invasion, but also to increase its international stature, preserve its freedom of action against South Korea, and maintain its strategic independence.
Unlike his predecessors, Kim Jong Un has taken a revisionist approach to North Korea’s nuclear doctrine, which aims to break the status quo on the Korean Peninsula and in the larger Asia-Pacific region.
Under a revisionist nuclear doctrine, North Korea may seek to gain recognition as a full-fledged nuclear power capable of threatening the US. That threat would break the strategic logic of America’s extended deterrence, which is the cornerstone concept of the US alliance network in the Pacific.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the launch of a missile in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency. Photo: KCNA
North Korea may also use the threat of nuclear escalation to provide strategic cover for low-intensity operations against South Korea without risking retaliation from the US. Such operations were seen in 2002 at the Battle of Yeongpeong and in the 2010 sinking of the ROKS Cheonan.
In both cases, South Korea’s retaliation was limited and the US did not intervene on behalf of its ally.
Nuclear weapons also help North Korea to maintain its strategic independence. While China is North Korea’s longstanding ally since the Korean War, in recent years it has grown critical of the Kim regime and has supported UN sanctions aimed at curbing North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
North Korea may thus now think that the strategic independence its nuclear arsenal provides is far more valuable than whatever protection China can give.
North Korea’s new nuclear flex comes amid shifting political winds south of the border. New hardline South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has already vowed to develop a “super-gap” between the North and South’s military capabilities and strengthen South Korea’s alliance with the US.
South Korea’s Commission on Presidential Transition condemned North Korea’s recent missile display, saying in a statement that “it has been proved through the military parade that North Korea has been actually immersing itself in developing means to threaten peace, not only on the Korean Peninsula, but also in Northeast Asia and the world, while insisting on peace and dialogue outwardly for the past five years.”
The SLBM missile display is the latest of North Korea’s provocative gestures following a spate of missile tests in previous months. These successive missile tests have forced Yoon to reconsider the redeployment of strategic US assets such as aircraft carriers, submarines and bombers in South Korea.
North Korea may be seeking to improve the survivability of its nuclear arsenal by opting for a submarine-based delivery system given its lack of strategic depth and in sight of its adversaries’ capabilities. The Korean Peninsula is relatively small, which negates many of the advantages of a land-based nuclear arsenal.
That means North Korea has very limited strategic depth to hide its land-based nuclear weapons from attack, as US and South Korean warplanes can easily overfly the entirety of the peninsula in short order. Both the US and South Korea have recently fielded weapons that could take out North Korea’s underground land-based nuclear arsenal, such as bunker-blasting cruise missiles and smart bombs.
South Korean troops loading a J-DAM guided bomb onto an F-15K jet fighter during a military exercise to mark the first anniversary of North Korea’s deadly shelling attack on a border island that left four South Koreans dead. Photo: AFP / Republic Of Korea Air Force
Submarines may be considered the ultimate in second-strike nuclear capability, as they are extremely difficult to locate and hit once submerged A submarine nuclear weapon launch is practically unstoppable given their stealth capabilities and lack of effective defenses against ballistic missile threats.
Still, it is not clear whether North Korea has mastered the technologies and procedures necessary to maintain a submarine-based nuclear deterrent.
While North Korea can be expected to pursue launch tests from time to time to play up the deterrent value of its nuclear arsenal, it is not clear whether it has mastered the procedures to complete a successful launch cycle, nor the technologies and resources necessary to maintain a nuclear deterrent at sea.
North Korea might thus be playing on the strategic ambiguity of its submarine nuclear deterrent as a so-called threat-in-being, given its possibly limited launch systems resources and technical know-how.
While North Korea’s real capabilities to maintain a submarine-based nuclear deterrent may be questionable, their symbolic and political value is not for a regime obsessed with its survival. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and massive military send a message to international audiences that the Kim dynasty is firmly in charge and acts as an indicator of regime stability.
The country’s military serves to intimidate any kind of dissent or criticism against the Kim regime, given the scale of its organization and reputation for brutality against dissenters and defectors.
North Korea’s frequent military parades, with its latest weapons on public display, also feed into the national narrative in which national self-sufficiency, anti-Western sentiment and wartime victimization of the North Korean people against US imperialism are key themes.
Nuclear weapons are a tangible element of these themes that are pervasively present in North Korea’s nationalistic and bellicose propaganda, which remain embedded in almost all spheres of public life.
10. N. Korea poses serious threat to peace, nonproliferation regime: DoD spokesperson
Yes it does.
Hmmmm.... recommend the PAO check this statement. I think the South Korean government has done pretty well improvising the lives of the Korean people in the South and probably no longer needs help from the US government.. Afterall, South Korea is the only country in the world to go from a major aid recipient to a major door nation which could only occur when the lives of the Korean people in the South reached the standards of an advanced developed country as a major economic power with the 10h largest economy in the world..
Now if we mean improving the lives of the people of the north and South through peace, stability, and unification then I can agree with that.
Excerpt:
"We will focus on reducing the threat to the United States and our allies, as well as improving the lives of the North and South Korean people," said the official. "We remain committed to the denuclearization of North Korea."
N. Korea poses serious threat to peace, nonproliferation regime: DoD spokesperson | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 26 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose a serious threat to the peace and security of the United States and its allies while also undermining the international nonproliferation regime, a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) spokesperson said Tuesday.
The Pentagon official also said the U.S. will adopt an approach that will work in dealing with North Korea.
"North Korea's unlawful nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its willingness to proliferate advanced technology constitute a serious threat to international peace and security and undermine the global nonproliferation regime," the spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an emailed response to questions regarding North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's comments on nuclear capabilities.
Kim, during a massive military parade held in Pyongyang on Monday (Seoul time), said his country will continue to strengthen its nuclear capabilities with the "fastest possible speed."
"The DoD and U.S. government will assess the threat North Korea poses and adopt an approach that works in close coordination with allies and partners to address it," the department spokesperson said.
The state department has consistently vowed to engage with North Korea in diplomacy and dialogue since the Joe Biden administration took office in January 2021.
Pyongyang, however, remains unresponsive to all U.S. overtures while avoiding denuclearization talks with the U.S. since late 2019.
A state department spokesperson declined to comment on Kim's remarks when inquired by Yonhap.
The defense department spokesperson reaffirmed the U.S.' commitment to the defense of South Korea.
"We will focus on reducing the threat to the United States and our allies, as well as improving the lives of the North and South Korean people," said the official. "We remain committed to the denuclearization of North Korea."
(END)
11. Ex-president Park coming to Yoon's inauguration
I do not envy the protocol personnel who will have to seat the former president and the outgoing president.
Wednesday
April 27, 2022
Ex-president Park coming to Yoon's inauguration
The presidential inauguration preparatory committee chief Park Joo-sun delivers President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's invitation to the May 10 inauguration ceremony to former President Park Geun-hye (left) at her home in Daegu on Tuesday in this photo provided by the committee. [YONHAP]
Former President Park Geun-hye will attend President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s inauguration on May 10.
The inauguration preparatory committee said Wednesday that its chief, Park Joo-sun, visited the former president at her home in Daegu the previous day and delivered a handwritten letter from Yoon and an invitation to the inauguration. Yoo Yeong-ha, former president Park's lawyer and aide, attended the 20-minute meeting.
“I believe I should congratulate the new government on its start,” the former president was quoted as saying.
“Although it is burdensome to travel more than three hours in my current health condition, I will make sure I can endure it through exercise and rehabilitation,” Park added, according to the committee.
As a result, outgoing President Moon Jae-in and former President Park are expected to meet at the inauguration.
Park was impeached in December 2016 and removed from office in March 2017 over an influence-peddling scandal involving her confidante Choi Soon-sil, after which Moon was voted into office. She was convicted of corruption and abuse of power and sentenced to a total of 22 years in prison.
Park received a special pardon from Moon last December due to deteriorating health and was formally released on New Year's Eve, though she remained hospitalized in Seoul. She was released from the hospital late last month.
Moon recently said he will attend the inauguration.
In a final press conference at the Nokjiwon presidential garden in the Blue House in central Seoul Monday, Moon said he planned to leave the Blue House at the end of the workday on May 9, spend the night elsewhere, attend Yoon's inauguration the following day and head to his newly constructed retirement home in Pyeongsan Village in Yangsan, South Gyeongsang, immediately afterward.
The inauguration preparation committee is also discussing ways to invite former presidents’ wives and other relatives to the ceremony. Kim Yoon-ok, wife of former President Lee Myung-bak is being considered for an invitation. Lee is not being invited because he is in prison for embezzlement and bribery.
Lawyer Roh Jae-hun, son of the late President Roh Tae-woo and member of the presidential transition team's Committee on National Unity, and Kim In-kyu, grandson of the late President Kim Young-sam, may also be invited. Kim In-kyu is a staffer on the transition team.
The preparatory committee plans to announce invitations to former presidents’ relatives next week.
Regarding the invitation given Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, preparatory committee chief Park Joo-sun said in a press conference Wednesday that they “haven’t yet received any response.”
Yoon Suk-yeol’s special delegation met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday and delivered a personal letter from Korea's president-elect.
12. Putting strained relations back on track
This could be good for US national security policy. Recall that trilateral (ROK-Japan-US) cooperation is one of the ten lines of effort in the INDOPACIFIC Strategy action plan.
Tuesday
April 26, 2022
Putting strained relations back on track
Nam Jeong-ho
The author is a columnist of the JoongAng Ilbo.
Takeo Kawamura, chairman of the Japan-Korea Parliamentarians’ Union, is a political heavyweight who was a member of the House of Representatives for three decades in Japan and served as the chief cabinet secretary. On April 12, he met with Chang Je-won, chief of staff of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, and made a noteworthy comment. Regarding Korea-Japan relations, strained over various issues including Korea’s demand for compensation for wartime forced labor victims, Kawamura said, “Japan will do what it can, instead of just asking Korea to untie the knot.”
That may sound like typical diplomatic rhetoric, but considering the recent history of Korea-Japan relations, his comment is significant. After the Supreme Court’s ruling in October 2018 that Japan must compensate Korean victims of wartime forced labor, Tokyo gave a consistent response to Seoul’s request to improve bilateral times. Tokyo maintained that Korea must present a solution acceptable to Japan. It held Korea fully responsible for the diplomatic stalemate and pressured Korea to resolve it. Now, Japan said it is willing to work on it. So, this is a major change. Furthermore, Kawamura reportedly told Chang that Korea elected a candidate whom Japan preferred as president.
President-elect Yoon’s delegation is visiting Japan. The delegation will meet with top Japanese leaders, including Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, and discuss ways to improve Korea-Japan relations and North Korean nuclear issues. Many topics will be discussed but the most important issue will be whether Prime Minister Kishida will attend Yoon’s inauguration on May 10.
In the past, Japan’s prime minister attended inauguration ceremonies of presidents Roh Tae-woo, Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak, so Kishida’s visit should be considered positively. But it is not an easy issue due to the years of disputes over wartime forced labor and sexual slavery victims, as well as Japan’s claim over the Dokdo islets in its Diplomatic Bluebook. Furthermore, there is little possibility that Kishida will make a visit opposed by hard-line right-wing politicians ahead of House of Councillors elections in June.
But we must not give up on improving bilateral ties just because Kishida does not attend the inauguration. It is the most critical task for our diplomats. Japan’s help is critical for Korea’s diplomatic activities in the international community. Joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) among Australia, India, Japan and the United States is an example. Joining the group is not easy without Japan’s support. Moreover, Korea-Japan-U.S. cooperation becomes more important than ever to counter North Korea’s nuclear threats, and worsened relations with Japan are a serious headache. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fueling concerns as a new cold war is apparently emerging.
Of course, there are many obstacles on the path to improving Korea-Japan relations. In addition to the forced labor, comfort women and history textbook issues, the territorial dispute over Dokdo also remains. Korea’s strategic mistake was its unconditional pressure on Japan to win concessions on all issues.
Such a strategy is destined to backfire. A former Korean ambassador to Japan talked about his solution to the Dokdo dispute and it was realistic. “Not responding to Japan’s claim is the best,” he said. “Japan’s Foreign Ministry, of course, will issue a statement each year that Takeshima is its territory.” He said Japan will do so, because it will create a basis to argue Japan’s territorial right in any future trial.
“But when we don’t respond for decades, the day will eventually come that Tokyo will stop claiming its right over Dokdo,” he assured. When the territorial dispute withers away, Dokdo will naturally be Korea’s territory.
The comfort women issue is different. As it is a human rights issue, a universal topic, we must raise our voice when Japan attempts to distort history. The issue of forced labor requires secret negotiations between the two governments. In other words, a strategic approach to each issue is necessary. Without such a fine-tuned strategy, Korea-Japan relations will never recover.
13. Self-destructive behavior - Allies should thwart North's threat to use nukes
Excerpts:
The United States also said the North's nuclear and missile programs were a serious threat to regional and international security. "We will focus on reducing the threat to the U.S. and our allies, as well as improving the lives of the North and South Korean people," Marty Meiners, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement.
It is high time for South Korea and the U.S. to cement their alliance to cope effectively with the growing threats from North Korea. We hope President-elect Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden will reconfirm the bilateral alliance and strengthen it further during their summit scheduled for next month. The two allies should double down on enhancing deterrence against the North.
Self-destructive behavior
Allies should thwart North's threat to use nukes
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has declared his resolve to ramp up his country's nuclear capabilities and use such weapons for other purposes beyond war deterrence. "Though the basic mission of the nuclear forces is to deter war, we must carry out the second mission if any forces attempt to infringe on the fundamental interests of the state," Kim was quoted as saying by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) Tuesday.
Kim made the statement during a huge military parade to mark the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (KPRA) Monday night. The event showcased tanks, ammunitions, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), in the North's apparent bid to beef up its internal solidarity and flex its military muscle to the outside world.
Worse still, Kim's remarks indicated the possible "first use" of nuclear weapons in a major shift of the North's military tactics, posing a threat that could heighten tension on the Korean Peninsula. They are in stark contrast to his expression of hopes for better ties with the South in a letter he sent to President Moon Jae-in last Thursday. Kim should realize that his threat of using nuclear arms is nothing but self-destructive behavior.
North Korea has been escalating its nuclear threats since the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party held in January 2021, during which Kim ordered the buildup of the nuclear arsenal including short-range and tactical nuclear missiles. Kim vowed to continue fully upgrading the nuclear arsenal at a fast speed, indicating the possibility of launching another ICBM and even a seventh nuclear test. Kim's remark came apparently in response to President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's reference to "preemptive attacks." Russia's threat of using nuclear weapons in its war with Ukraine seems to have also emboldened Kim to flaunt his nuclear arsenal.
In a timely and proper manner Tuesday, Yoon's transition committee pledged to beef up South Korea's alliance with the United States and tackle the North's threats by using the "three-axis system" consisting of air missile defense, preemptive strike and massive retaliation plans. It also vowed to develop state-of-the-art military technologies and an advanced weapons system.
The United States also said the North's nuclear and missile programs were a serious threat to regional and international security. "We will focus on reducing the threat to the U.S. and our allies, as well as improving the lives of the North and South Korean people," Marty Meiners, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement.
It is high time for South Korea and the U.S. to cement their alliance to cope effectively with the growing threats from North Korea. We hope President-elect Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden will reconfirm the bilateral alliance and strengthen it further during their summit scheduled for next month. The two allies should double down on enhancing deterrence against the North.
14. North Korea struggling to secure 'advanced' nuclear technology: expert
Excerpts:
The assessment by Lee Sang-min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, came a day after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed in public to speed up the development of the North's nuclear capabilities and even threatened to use nuclear weapons if "any forces try to violate the fundamental interests" of his country.
"Assuming that its ultimate goal is to load warheads on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), there is no evidence that North Korea has reached such a goal," Lee said at a conference in Seoul.
It seems that the North is struggling in securing advanced technology, such as the miniaturization of nuclear warheads and atmospheric re-entry capabilities for ballistic missiles, he said, adding that the secretive regime's nuclear development so far has been mainly based on relatively simple technology.
North Korea struggling to secure 'advanced' nuclear technology: expert
North Korea's military test-fires a surface-to-surface tactical guided missile from an unknown location in North Korea, Jan. 27. North Korea appears to still have a long way to go before achieving what it desires, especially the technology to miniaturize warheads. Yonhap
Despite its stated push for a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, North Korea appears to still have a long way to go before achieving what it desires, especially the technology to miniaturize warheads, according to an expert here at a state-run institute, Wednesday.
The assessment by Lee Sang-min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, came a day after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed in public to speed up the development of the North's nuclear capabilities and even threatened to use nuclear weapons if "any forces try to violate the fundamental interests" of his country.
"Assuming that its ultimate goal is to load warheads on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), there is no evidence that North Korea has reached such a goal," Lee said at a conference in Seoul.
It seems that the North is struggling in securing advanced technology, such as the miniaturization of nuclear warheads and atmospheric re-entry capabilities for ballistic missiles, he said, adding that the secretive regime's nuclear development so far has been mainly based on relatively simple technology.
He evaluated that Pyongyang currently does not appear to have mastered the technology to load a nuclear warhead onto its Hwasong-15 ICBM and strike a target precisely amid reports of a single test-launch.
Kim Bo-mi, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, also said the Hwasong-15 seems to have a low level of target accuracy, for now.
During a military parade Monday, the North showcased its ICBMs, including the Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17, a "monster" missile that it claimed to have test-fired last month. (Yonhap)
15. North Korean state media airs footage of military parade
Key point: "highly edited."
What do they want to show us and what messages are they trying to send to us (as well as the domestic audience in north Korea)?
North Korean state media airs footage of military parade
Military aircraft performing a flyover during a military parade held to celebrate the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (KPRA), at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, Monday, in this photo released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Tuesday. EPA-Yonhap
North Korean state television began broadcasting footage of a military parade on Tuesday, opening with shots of skydivers landing in Pyongyang's Kim Il-sung square, and army trucks lined up in the streets.
The official KCTV's famous anchor Ri Chun-hi announced the start of the program, which will show edited footage of a parade to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army.
Highly edited footage showed thousands of uniformed soldiers marching into the square, some in full battle dress and carrying their weapons as if entering combat.
"This is really a new presentation," Jeongmin Kim, the lead correspondent of Seoul-based specialist site NK News said in a live stream commentary on the parade broadcast on YouTube.
She said the state media footage combined video of the parade with what appeared to be pre-recorded segments.
Until 2017, North Korea broadcast military parades live, but after what South Korea's Yonhap news agency said was a glitch with a vehicle, they switched to delayed, edited broadcasts.
North Korea recently released a heavily-edited video of what it claimed was a successful test of its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, although Seoul and US officials later said it was actually a test of a less advanced missile.
North Korea stages military parades to mark important holidays and events, often featuring thousands of goose-stepping troops followed by a cavalcade of armored vehicles and tanks and culminating with the key missiles Pyongyang wants to display.
Observers closely monitor these events for clues on North Korea's latest weapons development. (AFP)
16. North Korea lowers threshold for nuclear use: experts
A number of varied assessments are coming out in the press.
North Korea lowers threshold for nuclear use: experts
A photo by the North's official Korean Central News Agency shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, presiding over a military parade to celebrate the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, Monday. Yonhap
Pyongyang unveils state-of-the-art weapons at military parade
By Kang Seung-woo
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's commemorative speech at a recent military parade is raising fears that the totalitarian state's nuclear strategy is shifting toward using nuclear weapons for offensive purposes, not just for a retaliatory strike.
On Monday night, Pyongyang staged a military showcase on the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (KPRA), during which Kim said his nuclear forces "will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission" if any forces try to violate the "fundamental interests" of his country.
Kim's unexpected remarks ― a sign of a change in the country's nuclear doctrine ― have prompted diplomatic observers to worry that the threshold for the use of the North's nuclear weapons has been lowered.
Traditionally, North Korea's nuclear policy had been that it could respond to a nuclear attack with a retaliatory strike against the attacker.
"With regard to the ambiguous 'fundamental interests' (that Kim referred to), they could include taking issue with its human rights violations or imposing sanctions on the country ― things that have nothing to do with a military confrontation ― possibly allowing North Korea to use nuclear weapons for offensive purposes as well as retaliation," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
Kim's remarks came some three weeks after his sister, Kim Yo-jong, also threatened to use nuclear weapons if South Korea begins a military confrontation with its northern neighbor ― a response to President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's reference to the need, during the election campaign, to carry out a preemptive strike in the event that the North appears ready to fire a nuclear-tipped missile at the South.
"Kim said that he could order the use of nuclear weapons to protect the 'fundamental interests' of North Korea. This sounds like an elastic term that Pyongyang can adjust the meaning of according to the situation, similar to how it blames the diplomatic deadlock on the 'hostile policies' of other countries," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
"Such an ambiguous and potentially escalatory nuclear doctrine should not only worry Seoul, Tokyo and Washington but Beijing as well."
Rep. Tae Yong-ho of the main opposition People Power Party, a North Korean-defector-turned-South Korean politician, claimed that Kim's threatening message was aimed at pressuring the South Korean and U.S. governments to shift their goal for North Korea from denuclearization to arms control.
"It is already being said ― even among conservative U.S. think tanks ― that the U.S. government should first focus on stopping North Korea from developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)," Park said.
"However, if the U.S. partially lifts sanctions on North Korea in return for freezing its nuclear and missile programs, the game would be over because North Korea has an economy specialized in sanctions, so if it receives some sanctions relief, then there is no reason to give up its nuclear weapons."
KN-18 missiles are displayed during a military parade in Kim Il Sung Square, Pyongyang, Monday. Yonhap
In response, the U.S. State Department said, Tuesday (local time), that its objective remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Meanwhile, the military parade showcased a display of its state-of-the-art road-mobile ICBMs, including the new giant ICBM known as the Hwasong-17, that it claims to have successfully launched on March 24, although the South Korean and U.S. authorities believe it was an older Hwasong-15.
North Korea also unveiled a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which has a larger warhead and length than the current Pukguksung-5, along with a mini-SLBM that the country said it test-launched last October.
Additionally, hypersonic missiles and new tactical guided weapons were displayed in the parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang.
17. Ramstein meeting gives birth to global 'contact group' to support Ukraine
As a colleague wrote when he flagged this for me: Better than the QUAD? And China will surely take notice of this.
Note Korea and Japan.
Excerpt:
Organizers said over 40 countries were attending and a scan of the meeting room showed countries mainly from Europe but also beyond, including Israel, Australia, Kenya and Tunisia, with representatives from South Korea and Japan attending virtually. All EU and NATO members were among the participants.
Ramstein meeting gives birth to global 'contact group' to support Ukraine
euractiv.com · by Alexandra Brzozowski | EURACTIV.com · April 27, 2022
Washington on Tuesday (26 April) said it would hold talks on a roughly monthly basis in Germany with allies inside and outside NATO to coordinate bolstering Ukraine’s defence capabilities as it battles Russia’s invasion.
The talks, hosted at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, were aimed to assess the current Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine and how to ensure a continuous flow of security assistance for Ukraine, including how to secure Ukraine’s long-term security and how it will defend itself after the war.
Organizers said over 40 countries were attending and a scan of the meeting room showed countries mainly from Europe but also beyond, including Israel, Australia, Kenya and Tunisia, with representatives from South Korea and Japan attending virtually. All EU and NATO members were among the participants.
The meeting marks a turning point in the consultation between Western allies which has taken the turn into an indirect military coalition.
Ukraine also reportedly gave information about its defence needs, calling for everything from artillery, drones and tanks to anti-ship missiles and combat aircraft.
“We need weapons. Modern weapons. A large number of modern heavy weapons,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted after the talks.
Speaking after the meeting, Austin told reporters that the forum would continue as a monthly “contact group” that would discuss Ukraine’s defence needs, which was rated as a sign that Kyiv is expected to face a lengthy military engagement with Russia.
“We do want to make it harder for Russia to threaten its neighbours and make it less able to do that,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.
The talks secured pledges from allies to sustain aid to Ukraine’s military throughout this next phase of the war and for the long term, including from Germany, who for the first time, announced the delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
“We decided yesterday that Germany will facilitate the delivery of Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine,” German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said at Ramstein.
Germany has also reached out to Eastern Europeans with the pledge to ensure that military stock gaps of Eastern European countries, who supply their Soviet equipment to Ukraine, will be replaced with NATO-standard equipment.
(Edited by Georgi Gotev)
euractiv.com · by Alexandra Brzozowski | EURACTIV.com · April 27, 2022
