Quotes of the Day:
"Wars of necessity are essentially unavoidable. They involve the most important national interests, a lack of promising alternatives to the use of force, and a certain and considerable price to be paid if the status quo is allowed to stand. Examples include World War II and the Korean War."
- Richard N. Haass
"The happiness of your life depends upon the quality of your thoughts: therefore, guard accordingly, and take care that you entertain no notions unsuitable to virtue and reasonable nature."
- Marcus Aurelius
"He who has a why to live can bear almost any how."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
1. N. Korean leader vows to 'preemptively' contain nuclear threats by hostile forces
2. North Korea’s Next Nuclear Test: How Big Could It Be?
3. FM nominee reaffirms push for hotline among two Koreas, U.S. for dialogue anytime
4. Kim Jong-un has started to make nuclear threats. Did he learn this from Putin’s strategy of escalation? What he’s protecting as his people starve...(ISHIMARU Jiro)
5. North Koreans wait 17 hours for compulsory viewing of Pyongyang military parade
6. China halts freight train traffic with North Korea
7. Defectors Pepper North Korea With Photos of South’s Incoming President
8. Kim Jong Un could use nuclear arsenal to dominate Korean peninsula, warn experts
9. Opinion | Kim Jong Un is adopting Putin’s Ukraine playbook
10. Int'l Rights Groups Call for Abolishment of Anti-Pyongyang Leaflet Ban
11. South Korea's new president steps into a geopolitical minefield
12. The Democratic Party’s Prosecution Reform Bill in Korea Resembles Socialist China’s Public Security System
13. Perpetrator of South Korea’s ‘Bitcoin-gate’ untraceable
14. Police say anti-US military activist vandalized Douglas MacArthur statue in South Korea
1. N. Korean leader vows to 'preemptively' contain nuclear threats by hostile forces
Yes we should take Kim at his word on this. However, these words are also in support of his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.
This is likely a threat to our deployment of "strategic assets" in the region. We must not react to this by halting routine deployments. It is imperative that we continue to demonstrate strength and resolve in the face of regime rhetoric.
(4th LD) N. Korean leader vows to 'preemptively' contain nuclear threats by hostile forces | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS photo)
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, April 30 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stressed the need to bolster the country's military power to "preemptively and thoroughly contain" nuclear threats from hostile forces, according to Pyongyang's state media Saturday.
He met with top military commanders who organized a massive street parade in Pyongyang earlier this week, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
Kim was quoted as calling on his military commanders to maintain the "absolute superiority" of the armed forces and constantly develop in order to "preemptively and thoroughly contain and frustrate all dangerous attempts and threatening moves, including ever-escalating nuclear threats from hostile forces, if necessary."
He emphasized that the "tremendous offensive power and the overwhelming military muscle" that can't be beaten is the "lifeline" for security guarantee in the current world where a force clashes with another fiercely and strength is needed to preserve "dignity, rights and interests," the KCNA added.
Kim also called on the military leaders to "boldly open up a new stage of development" of the armed forces during the meeting held at the office building of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee in Pyongyang.
He then had a photo session with them including Pak Jong-chon, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the WPK, and Defense Minister Ri Yong-gil.
The KCNA did not specify the date of the event. However, it usually carries reports on Kim's public activities a day later.
The parade was held in the North's capital Monday to celebrate the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (KPRA), during which strategic weapons including the Hwangsong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) were showcased.
At the parade, Kim vowed to further strengthen his regime's nuclear capabilities and warned any forces that seek to violate the "fundamental interests" of the North will be met with the country's nuclear forces.
(END)
2. North Korea’s Next Nuclear Test: How Big Could It Be?
I also wonder about the geology around the test site. We have seen reports of a number of earthquakes in recent years. Have the 6 previous nuclear tests had an effect?Will another test make the area unstable?
We should also consider how these test preparation in support Kim's recent statement on premetove use. While I am sure the north continues to improve its weapons systems, these activities also support and reinforce the regime's political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.
Imagery at the link below.
North Korea’s Next Nuclear Test: How Big Could It Be?
As North Korea continues to excavate a new portal (entrance) approximately 50 meters east of the original (now demolished) South Portal, there is wide speculation that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test soon. Based on the terrain, geology, topography, and suspected tunnel schematics, the two drifts at this southern tunnel complex are estimated to be capable of containing explosions around 50 to 120 kilotons, respectively.
Certainly, yield limit estimates do not mean the North Koreans will test to the maximum available capacity or tell us what specifically they may be planning to do next. But it does indicate that this tunnel complex, as depicted in the North Korean schematic map, is incapable of containing explosions the size of the 2017 test. Nonetheless, if Kim Jong Un is working to fully weaponize and proof test North Korea’s tactical nuclear warheads or other battlefield weapons, reaccessing and restoring the depicted tunnels to working conditions would likely be more than sufficient.
Calculating Yield Estimates for the Tunnel No. 3 Complex
The Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site is comprised of four separate tunnel systems, identified respectively as the East Portal (sometimes referred to as Tunnel No. 1), the North Portal (Tunnel No. 2), the South Portal (Tunnel No. 3) and the West Portal (Tunnel No. 4). Of these four portals, the East Portal was used in 2006 and evidently abandoned shortly after that single use due to contamination. The five subsequent tests were conducted from the North Portal. No tests have yet been conducted at the South Portal, where excavation activity ended in late 2013, or in the West Portal, where excavation activity began in 2017. In May 2018, the North, South and West Portals were all explosively sealed, as witnessed by foreign journalists.
Figure 1. North Korean produced overview schematic of the four portals at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site with projected tunnel layouts (overlain on Google Earth).
Image: Google Earth, annotation by 38 North. Map courtesy of Sky News. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Since March 2022, the North Koreans have been excavating a new portal (entrance) approximately 50 meters east of the original (now demolished) South Portal.[1] This has led to wide speculation that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test soon. It also raises key questions about what the effective yield limitations are for conducting a nuclear test via this south tunnel complex and what purpose another test would serve, especially given the success of the previous six tests, including the 2017 test under Mt. Mantap that had an effective yield of roughly 250 kilotons of TNT.
In 2017, prior to that last test, David Coblentz and Frank V. Pabian published an article on 38 North that estimated the test tunnels at the North Portal (Tunnel No. 2) had the capacity to contain underground explosions up to 282 kilotons. That assessment turned out to be quite accurate; the tunnel was able to contain a 250-kiloton blast with no radiation leaks yet detected. The estimate took into account the geologic makeup and terrain of Mt. Mantap, as well as the estimated tunnel length and independently derived schematics. The amount of spoil that had been displaced at the North Portal over the years and the seismically determined epicenters of previous tests for that complex provided a sense of the likely tunnel design and length. From that information, Coblentz and Pabian estimated the longest tunnel could have ended under the highest point of Mt. Mantap, providing an overburden of roughly 800 meters. They wrote:
When we apply the parameters found for Mt. Mantap (which provides 800 meters of overlying rock for a tunnel beginning at the North Portal), to published nominal scaled depth of burial formulae (approximated by the equation: Depth=122(yield in kT)1/3, where depth is measured in meters and yield in kilotons (kT)), then such a depth would allow containment of an underground nuclear explosive event having a yield of up to 282 kilotons.
Using this formula, we can estimate the yield limits of the southern tunnel complex. The geology is assessed to be similar to what is found under Mt. Mantap (Tokureido diorite or Jurassic-age granite). Terrain profiles can be derived from the rough tunnel schematics previously displayed by North Korea, which are reasonably close to our own previously published tunnel projections. Given the known topography of the area and the amount of spoil that was displaced during the original tunnel excavations, it is possible to derive a maximum depth of burial for each of the two tunnel drifts that were shown on the North Korean test tunnel schematic map.
Based on the above nominal scaled depth of burial formula, this means that for the longer tunnel (drift #1, see Figure 2), where the maximum available overburden is about 600 meters, safe containment should be possible for up to roughly 120 kilotons.
Figure 2. Terrain profile of purported South Tunnel projection, drift #1.
Image: Google Earth, annotation by 38 North. Map courtesy of Sky News. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
In the shorter tunnel section (drift #2, see Figure 3), the maximum available overburden is about 450 meters, which would provide a capability to safely test up to around 50 kilotons. Although, in each case, the potential test yields are significantly less than what was possible at the North Portal, they are still large enough to handle a wide range of fully weaponized nuclear weapons tests, especially tactical nuclear warheads (some of which might range 10-15 kilotons or less). Previous nuclear testing was more likely for the purposes of proving designs and yield-to-mass calculations verification.
Figure 3. Terrain profile of purported South Tunnel projection, drift #2.
Image: Google Earth, annotation by 38 North. Map courtesy of Sky News. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 4 shows how it would be possible to reaccess these two tunnel drifts via a parallel by-pass tunnel, one kilometer long, from the newly excavated portal (assuming that the south tunnel was actually damaged to the extent shown in the schematic with three separate detonations). It should be noted, though, that the amount of tunneling required could be significantly less if the tunnels were laid out as we had originally assessed versus what the North Korean schematic showed. Alternatively, it is also possible that not much of the original tunnel was destroyed beyond the original South Portal (despite what was shown on the schematic map), which would then require a much shorter by-pass tunnel. In either case, the amount of time needed to prepare for another underground nuclear test would also be significantly reduced.
Figure 4. Possible by-pass tunnel layout from the new South Portal to access undamaged tunnel sections.
Image: Google Earth, annotation by 38 North. Map courtesy of Sky News. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Certainly, estimates of yield limits do not mean the North Koreans will test to the maximum available capacity or tell us what specifically they may be planning to do next. But it does indicate that this tunnel complex, as depicted in the North Korean schematic map, is incapable of containing explosions the size of the 2017 test. Nonetheless, if Kim Jong Un is working to fully weaponize and proof test North Korea’s tactical nuclear warheads or other battlefield weapons, reaccessing and restoring the depicted tunnels to working conditions would likely be more than sufficient.
We should also point out, however, that if additional tunneling were to be conducted in a more westwardly direction, then the North Koreans could achieve a similar maximum overburden as was previously available under Mt. Mantap. A hypothetical drift #3 (see Figure 4) could be extended under the high volcanic plateau, providing a maximum available overburden of about 800 meters, which would provide a capability to safely test up to around 282 kilotons. Additional tunneling would be required, though, and probably observable over time.
Figure 5. North Korean displayed nuclear test tunnel schematic map of Punggye-ri.
Image: Google Earth, annotation by 38 North. Map courtesy of Sky News. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
- [1]
For latest imagery and analysis, see Peter Makowsky, Olli Heinonen, and Jack Liu, “Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Work Continues to Restore Tunnel No. 3,” 38 North, April 28, 2022, https://www.38north.org/2022/04/punggye-ri-nuclear-test-site-work-continues-to-restore-tunnel-no-3/; and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Victor Cha, and Jennifer Jun, “Punggye-ri Update: Construction and Volleyball,” CSIS Beyond Parallel, April 28, 2022, https://beyondparallel.csis.org/punggye-ri-update-construction-and-volleyball/.
3. FM nominee reaffirms push for hotline among two Koreas, U.S. for dialogue anytime
If I were king for a day, I would gift a Samsung phone to every diplomat from north Korea at every meeting, Track 1 or 1.5, And for a real "hotline" I recommend President-elect Yoon gift a Samsung phone to Kim Jong-un. I would also have front line South Korean soldiers who patrol the DMZ leave visible caches of Samsung phones in all the areas patrolled by north Korean troops. I would leave messages with the phones as a gift from the ROK 5th Corps Commander in the Chorwon to the north Korean 5th Corps Commander across the DMZ. (and I would do the same for all the north Korean frontline corps (4,2,5,1). If we could eventually establish some direct frontline communication that could be very valuable during heightened tensions, uncertainty, and contingencies. I would also beef up the cell phone infrastructure in the DMZ area to expand cell phone coverage as far north as possible.
FM nominee reaffirms push for hotline among two Koreas, U.S. for dialogue anytime | Yonhap News Agency
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, April 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's incoming administration will strive to establish a system for the two Koreas and the United States to have dialogue anytime through a liaison office at the truce village of Panmunjom or Washington, D.C., the nominee to become Seoul's top diplomat said Saturday.
In a written report to lawmakers ahead of his confirmation hearing, Park Jin pointed out that the three nations are "core parties concerned" with Korean Peninsula security issues.
Setting up such a liaison office was one of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's campaign pledges, and Park reaffirmed a commitment to implementing it
"The new government will always leave the door open for unconditional dialogue involving North Korea and make efforts to resume denuclearization talks under close coordination with the U.S.," Park said.
He reaffirmed a vision for achieving lasting peace and security on the peninsula through the complete and verifiable denuclearization of North Korea.
On whether the North is willing to denuclearize itself, Park said he thinks it currently has no intention to realize denuclearization on its own.
"Regardless of whether or not North Korea has the willingness to denuclearize, the right policy direction is to create conditions in which the North cannot but denuclearize and to make them realize that their nuclear weapons go against their own interests," he said.
Park also pledged to address North Korea's human rights issue in a serious manner, saying the incoming government takes the matter seriously.
He said it would take the initiative on the annual United Nations resolutions condemning the North's human rights abuse, unlike the outgoing liberal Moon Jae-in administration accused by conservative critics of having taken a tepid stance on the issue.
(END)
4. Kim Jong-un has started to make nuclear threats. Did he learn this from Putin’s strategy of escalation? What he’s protecting as his people starve...(ISHIMARU Jiro)
Although the timing seems more than continental - Putin and his aides make threats, Kim is making threats, I actually think Kim has long been out in front on making threats (how many times has the regime said it would turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire?). Sure he may be exploiting Putin's actions but this is just another effort as part of KJU's political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.
Kim Jong-un has started to make nuclear threats. Did he learn this from Putin’s strategy of escalation? What he’s protecting as his people starve...(ISHIMARU Jiro)
Photo (Rodong Sinmun)
Kim Jong-un visited Vladivostok in Russia’s Far Eastern Region by train in April 2019. It was the first and only time Kim met with Russian leader Vladmir Putin.
Putin is a frightening dictator. Over the past 60 days, the world has felt this down to the bone.
To achieve his aims to create a Greater Russia, Russian President Vladmir Putin has moved forward with his ambition to occupy the sovereign nation of Ukraine under ridiculous pretenses and is perpetrating great harm against the Russian people as well. The world has been shaken up because of a self-righteous, cold-hearted dictator with strong intentions. There is no remaining democracy or free press to suppress or place a check on Putin’s recklessness.
While watching the situation in Ukraine, I immediately thought of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. From January to April 29, the country has conducted 11 missile launches. On April 25, a massive military parade was held in Pyongyang.
I watched the two hour and 19-minute video released by Korean Central TV of the military parade. The footage showed fireworks bursting in the night sky and fighter jets flying by. While the regime must have spent an enormous amount of funds on the event, I thought of something more serious than just all the waste of money: Kim Jong-un is a frightening dictator who does not hesitate to spend huge amounts of cash despite his country’s economic difficulties.
North Korea's COVID-19 prevention measures has created a severe economic downturn in the country due to the closure of its borders and heavy restrictions on movement. The Kim Jong-un regime is facing its worst humanitarian crisis in the past 10 years, with disadvantaged people dying of starvation in the country’s provincial cities. Despite this, Kim spends all his time showing off his authority and what he has achieved, along with the country’s weaponry.
Around the time that Putin’s war began, I received inquiries from several Japanese-Koreans. They had suddenly received long-distance calls from their relatives in North Korea.
They told me, “They (Our relatives) are living in hell. They’re asking for money. Is there any way to send some to them?”
Economic sanctions prevent people in Japan from using banks to send money to North Korea; however, it is possible to send a one-time payment of 100,000 yen (around 770 dollars) through insured mail for humanitarian reasons. In the past, whenever someone from Chongryon (The General Association of Korean Residents in Japan) came around there were many people who asked for ways to send money to North Korea.
Now, the North Korean government is not allowing anyone, including their own nationals, to return to the country as part of efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It is no longer possible to send letters to the country, either. While one could use underground brokers to send money into the DPRK in the past, it is so difficult to travel domestically in North Korea due to travel restrictions that brokers can’t make it to the Chinese border to collect the funds anymore. I simply had to tell the Japanese-Koreans who asked for help, “It’s regretable, but I believe that sending money into the country is impossible until the COVID-19 situation eases up.”
During his speech at the military parade, Kim Jong-un made an important statement in regards to the country’s nuclear weapons. While repeating his claim that the country’s nuclear weapons are for preventing war, he signaled that the country could mount a preemptive attack, saying: “If any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear forces will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission.”
I think that Kim is imitating Putin in this regard. When the Russian leader invaded Ukraine, he mentioned the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Security experts believe that Putin’s aim was to prevent the US and NATO from sending troops into the country.
Rather than learning that Ukraine suffered an invasion because it lacked nuclear weapons, Kim may have drawn the lesson that nuclear threats can prevent intervention by the US.
North Korea has long argued that its nuclear and missile development is for its own self-defense. The country’s repeated tests of ballistic missiles, however, is clearly over-the-top and aggressive. The regime is trying to protect the rule of the Kim family while its people starve.
North Korea proclaims itself to have a monolithic leadership system and does not have democracy nor any opposition to speak of that could serve as a counterweight to Kim Jong-un's actions. I am constantly worried about the fact that such a dictator places so much attention on improving the country’s nuclear and missile arsenal.
5. North Koreans wait 17 hours for compulsory viewing of Pyongyang military parade
Force loyalty. The subtitle is important.
If I were advising a strategic influence campaign I would be showing the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine - showing all the similar Soviet based equipment that is similar to the north's begin destroyed by an Army of a democratic country and by a people who are free and esek to defend their freedom. I would try to have the target audience draw the conclusion that the nKPA would suffer the similar fate against the ROK and the ROK/US Alliance. The foundation for belief seems to already be there among the population.
North Koreans wait 17 hours for compulsory viewing of Pyongyang military parade
Citizens scoff at the government’s claim that North Korea is the world’s premier military power.
By Hyemin Son, Jeong Yeon Park, and Myungchul Lee
2022.04.29
Residents of Pyongyang who were forced to participate in a parade to mark the founding of North Korea’s army this week waited for nearly an entire day before the event began, disrupting their work and leaving them exhausted, sources said Friday.
On the evening of April 25, Pyongyang commemorated the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army – the predecessor to the Korean People’s Army, formed when the country was founded in 1948 – with an extravagant military parade, classified as a “No. 1 event” because it was presided over by the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un.
A city official told RFA’s Korean Service that tens of thousands of residents were forced to assemble well in advance of the event showcasing North Korea’s most advanced military equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, and the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, which Pyongyang claims to have successfully tested last month.
“From the dawn on the 25th, about 100,000 Pyongyang citizens waited at Kim Il Sung Square for 17 hours to make the military parade possible,” said the official, noting that the start of the event was not made public until just before it began.
“They were all totally exhausted,” he added.
Sources told RFA that North Koreans have tried to avoid “parade duty” ever since Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011. The government has taken action to make sure parades are not sparsely attended, forcing them to practice watching or marching in the parade in the two months leading up to the actual event.
“Now the number of participants are assigned to each neighborhood watch unit and they are forcibly mobilized,” the official said.
“Pyongyang citizens mobilized for the event are complaining that their livelihoods are being disrupted as they were not able to do business during the two-month military parade practice period. There are many residents who think that it is better to pay $30.00 per month to drop out of practice so they can work instead.”
Those marching in the parade also sacrifice much for the highly publicized propaganda event.
“The authorities conducted a two-month training session for middle school students selected for the balloon group, but during this period, the children’s grades are bound to drop,” the official said.
Security for the event meant that certain people were kept away from the parade, even those who might have enjoyed watching it, a Pyongyang resident told RFA.
“On the day of the event, the members of No.1 event department checked the list of general citizens who were not eligible to participate in the military parade by their residence. General citizens, such as elderly and younger children, who were excluded from participating in the event, gathered in a certain place by residence until the end of the parade and their movement was restricted,” the resident said.
“Security agents with heavy firearms were stationed on the rooftop of an apartment building around the square, and strict security was maintained until the event was over… I don’t know what they are afraid of,” the resident said.
Citizens participating in the parade were instructed to wear black clothes to avoid being detected by satellites until just before the start of the ceremony,” the official said.
Sources said that authorities even blocked all mobile communications to ensure leader Kim Jong Un’s security, without providing details about the perceived threat.
“At the order of the Supreme Guard Command escorting the leadership, the operation of the mobile phone base station in Pyongyang was stopped, and mobile phone calls from and to Pyongyang citizens were blocked,” a second Pyongyang resident told RFA.
“Until now, whenever any No.1 events are held in Pyongyang, the event participants gathered at Kim Il Sung Square are inspected with metal detectors by members of the Ministry of State Security and are banned from possessing watches and mobile phones. It is the first time that the operation of the mobile phone base station has been stopped and the use of mobile phones in Pyongyang has been completely blocked,” he said.
Everyone involved in the parade was so unhappy about being selected to participate, including the soldiers, a stark contrast to the military parades of yesteryear when Kim Jong Un’s father and grandfather ruled the country, the first Pyongyang resident said.
“During the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il eras, soldiers who participated in military parades were given considerable benefits such as commendations, 15 days of vacation, and gifts like televisions for their homes,” the first Pyongyang resident said.
“However, after Kim Jong Un came to power, the soldiers who participate in military parades are immediately returned to their military camp without any compensation.”
New weapons
Despite the fanfare, North Koreans said that the parade did little to improve morale.
North Korea showcased its most advanced military equipment during the parade, including its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, which it claims to have successfully tested last month.
To drive the point home, authorities forced residents to attend two-hour lecture sessions to educate them about the weapons that appeared in the parade, a resident of the northwestern province of North Pyongan told RFA.
“The purpose of this intensive lecture is to promote North Korea’s military power as the world’s strongest by showing off strategic and tactical weapons that appeared at the parade, and to calm the dissatisfaction of the people who are tired of living difficulties due to sanctions and the coronavirus,” he said.
The North Korean economy is still suffering from a pandemic caused two-year trade ban with China, as well as international nuclear sanctions.
“Residents mobilized for the lecture were skeptical about the speaker’s statement that we are standing tall as the world’s most powerful military power,” the North Pyongan resident said.
The lecture also promised an end to North Korea’s economic misery, a resident of the city of Chongjin in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA.
“Residents did not hide their disappointment, saying that no one believed the authorities’ propaganda.”
Translated by Leejin J. Chung Written in English by Eugene Whong.
6. China halts freight train traffic with North Korea
Just when you thought economic engagement would return.
China halts freight train traffic with North Korea
BEIJING (AP) — China says it halted railroad freight traffic with North Korea as it deals with the spread of COVID-19 in the border town of Dandong.
The countries had reopened trade between Dandong and North Korea’s Sinuiju in January following a two-year pause while the North imposed one of the world’s most restrictive pandemic border closures despite the strain on its broken economy.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Friday the decision to suspend the freight services was taken “in light of the current epidemic situation in Dandong,” but he gave no other details.
The Dandong city government on Monday ordered all residents to swiftly return home and stay there to stem the spread of the virus. It said the government would make strenuous efforts to ensure the daily needs of residents but made no mention of links with North Korea and did not say when the lockdown would be lifted.
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While many countries are dropping restrictions and trying to live with the virus, China has been sticking to a “zero-COVID” approach, which requires mass testing and lockdowns and keeping its international borders largely shut.
North Korea’s decision to tentatively reopen-cross border trade with China, its main ally and economic lifeline, possibly reflected a growing urgency in its need for outside relief.
North Korea still claims to have a perfect record in keeping out COVID-19 from its territory — a claim widely doubted. But the closure of its border to nearly all trade and visitors for two years further shocked an economy already damaged by decades of mismanagement and crippling U.S.-led sanctions over its nuclear weapons and missile program.
Experts say the North would have focused on importing fertilizers to boost food production, factory goods to spur dismal industrial production, and construction materials to support ambitious development projects that leader Kim Jong Un touts as major accomplishments.
The North has been accelerating its weapons tests in recent months, including its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017 in March, as it revives brinkmanship to pressure the United States to accept it as a nuclear power and remove sanctions. South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which deals with inter-Korean affairs, didn’t immediately provide more details on the suspension of freight traffic between North Korea and China.
7. Defectors Pepper North Korea With Photos of South’s Incoming President
Let me reprise my comments from a few days ago because this is important information:
For those who think leaflets or balloon launches are anachronistic and obsolete I would call your attention to the important report just written by George Hutchinson and published by HRNK which describes the importance of leaflets, especially in the frontline areas.
"Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA"
George Hutchinson Apr 26, 2022
Excerpts:Pages 79-80:
Several interviewees also stressed the importance of distributing leaflets to !ont-line
areas along the DMZ. It is notable that both interviewees who are quoted below are relatively
recent escapees.
Leaflets [would be most effective]. I spent a few months interacting with soldiers who served in these #ont-line
areas and escaped North Korea across the DMZ. These soldiers had an extremely weak commitment to revolutionary
ideology. Because of leaflets, they had an admiration for South Korea instead. These leaflets are extremely powerful.
(Served until 2012)
Paper leaflets are very important. 70% to 80% of the KPA is forward deployed along the 38th parallel. In the
event of a war, it is these soldiers who would lead the attack. A soldier who has seen even one leaflet may not
completely trust its contents, but they will begin to question, ever so slightly, what they know. This is critical. Then,
once they see first-hand the realities of South Korea, their thoughts will be transformed. Because soldiers are
subjected only to ideology about Kim Jong-un in the military, these leaflets have a meaningful impact.
(Served until 2019)
One interviewee agreed about the importance of leaflets but added that the leaflet balloons
could also address more immediate material needs.
Paper leaflets are, of course, important with respect to soldiers in the #ont-line areas. However, many of the
soldiers who are currently serving in the military were born during the Arduous March. It may be more effective to
send over snacks and food items than paper leaflets.
(Interview 7)
Defectors Pepper North Korea With Photos of South’s Incoming President
The group was resuming the practice of sending antiregime leaflets in defiance of a contentious law passed under outgoing President Moon Jae-in
Apr. 28, 2022 7:33 am ET
SEOUL—Balloons carried a million leaflets, small books, USB drives and pictures of South Korea’s incoming president into North Korea this week, as a group of defectors challenged a South Korean law that has barred such activity since last year.
The effort marked the first time antiregime leaflets had been sent into North Korea since April 2021, a few months after a contentious law was passed under President Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for engagement with Pyongyang. The leader of the group, Fighters for Free North Korea, is now on trial after being charged under the law.
The 20 large balloons sent into the North on Monday and Tuesday carried pictures of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol—a conservative who is expected to take a tougher line on Pyongyang and its human-rights record—as well as USB drives with information about South Korea’s economic and cultural development.
“A great nation where a prosecutor has become the leader. South Korea’s 12th President Yoon Suk-yeol,” read the leaflets, which were sent from Gimpo, a city west of Seoul.
Plastic bags containing anti-Pyongyang leaflets.
PHOTO: YONHAP/SHUTTERSTOCK
Pyongyang has lashed out at Seoul in the past for allowing the leaflets to cross the border. The law South Korea adopted to stop the practice, which was passed in 2020 and came into effect in March last year, has been criticized for curbing free speech in an effort to improve ties with the North. Violators face up to three years in prison if convicted.
Park Sang-hak, the head of Fighters for Free North Korea, said the group resumed the leafleting campaign this week after halting activities for a year during a police investigation and court trial for sending balloons across the border. Mr. Park’s trial hasn’t yet finished.
The group sent photos of South Korea’s incoming president to show North Koreans that South Korea has had 12 democratically elected presidents as opposed to Pyongyang’s father-to-son successions, Mr. Park said. “Thousands of North Koreans have crossed the border to find freedom in a country that holds democratic elections, and that will come as a shock to North Koreans who see our leaflets,” he said.
Last year, a group of United Nations’ special rapporteurs voiced concerns about the law. The ban on sending leaflets across the inter-Korean border could hurt legitimate activities of nongovernmental organizations in Seoul and restrict the right to freedom of expression, they said. The law also drew widespread condemnation from human-rights activists and U.S. lawmakers. Human Rights Watch called the ban a misguided strategy by South Korea to win North Korea’s favor.
North Korea Says Nuclear Weapons Aren’t Just for Self-Defense
North Korea Says Nuclear Weapons Aren’t Just for Self-Defense
Play video: North Korea Says Nuclear Weapons Aren’t Just for Self-Defense
Kim Jong Un pledged to ramp up North Korea’s nuclear program at a military parade featuring long-range missiles. The dictator said nuclear weapons aren’t just for self-defense and could be used against nations threatening Pyongyang’s interests. Photo: KCNA/Reuters
Defectors in South Korea have for decades sent anti-North Korean leaflets over the border, usually by balloons or in bottles on border rivers. They have sent rice, medicine, money and USB drives containing South Korean news and dramas. Mr. Moon’s administration said the leaflets provoked North Korea and endangered people living near the border.
But officials of the incoming Yoon administration have taken a different stance. Kwon Young-se, Mr. Yoon’s nominee for Unification Minister, called the anti-leaflet law “constitutionally problematic” this month, naming it among the policies from the previous administration that Mr. Yoon may seek to drop.
The Unification Ministry declined to comment on the debate over the law but said South Korean authorities are looking into where and when the leaflets were distributed.
Mr. Yoon has vowed to strengthen the country’s defense posture against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats and has argued for maintaining international sanctions until the country has completely dismantled its nuclear-weapons program. He also pledged to renew emphasis on human rights in North Korea and revamp the settlement support system for North Korean defectors to expand assistance and professional training.
Mr. Moon faced criticism during his term for attempting to appease North Korea by restricting activities by defector groups and activists. Police launched investigations into activist groups and conducted office inspections. Since 2019, the South Korean government has declined to co-sponsor a U.N. resolution condemning North Korea’s human-rights violations. The Moon administration has been involved in a number of human-rights controversies, including the unprecedented decision to forcibly repatriate two North Koreans who wanted to defect.
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Tensions have been rising on the Korean Peninsula as Pyongyang started this year with a spree of weapons tests, including its first full-range intercontinental ballistic missile launch in more than four years. Washington officials have said the prospect of a nuclear test can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, Mr. Yoon has said he supports a pre-emptive strike against North Korea if necessary.
But last week, Mr. Kim and Mr. Moon exchanged personal letters as the South Korean President’s five-year term ends next month. Mr. Moon urged the North Korean leader to resume talks with the U.S. and the next South Korean government. Mr. Kim responded by saying inter-Korean relations would improve if both countries made “tireless efforts.”
Conservative lawmakers have proposed a bill to reverse the anti-leaflet law, which will gain more support as Mr. Yoon takes office, according to Ji Seong-ho, a defector-turned-lawmaker.
“The distribution of antiregime leaflets is the least we can do to guarantee the North Korean people’s right to know,” Mr. Ji said.
Appeared in the April 29, 2022, print edition as 'Defectors Rain Leaflets on North Korea, Defying Seoul’s Ban'.
8. Kim Jong Un could use nuclear arsenal to dominate Korean peninsula, warn experts
Most of these experts are correct and I especially concur with the headline. I would just add the word "try" as in "Kim Jong Un could use nuclear arsenal to TRY to dominate Korean peninsula, warn experts."
Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now at the Rand Corporation think-tank, said: “North Korea will of course keep the US in mind as it continues to make advancements in its nuclear and missile capabilities.
“But, more than anything, the regime’s development of tactical nuclear weapons bears the potential to threaten South Korea.”
Kim Jong Un could use nuclear arsenal to dominate Korean peninsula, warn experts
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un may harbour ambitions to use his nuclear weapons programme to assert control over the entire Korean peninsula, experts have warned.
Andrei Lankov, one of the world’s pre-eminent scholars on North Korea, said the Kim regime’s nuclear arsenal, which is growing in scale and sophistication despite strict international sanctions, had superseded its defensive needs.
“The North Korean nuclear programme was initially purely defensive. They were afraid, correctly, that without nuclear weapons they would be invaded,” said Lankov, who is a professor of history at Kookmin University in Seoul.
“But now it is clearly overkill from a defensive point of view. They don’t really need intercontinental ballistic missiles and they don’t really need a thermonuclear device. This leads me strongly to suspect that their ultimate dream is to assert their control over South Korea.”
Kim Jong Un has long sought to associate himself in the minds of North Koreans with his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, who died in 1994 just as the country he had ruled with an iron fist descended into a brutal famine that killed millions.
Kim Il Sung was a former guerrilla fighter who was described by one contemporary as resembling “a fat delivery boy from a neighbourhood Chinese food stall”, according to The Great Successor, a book on Kim Jong Un by Anna Fifield. The elder Kim was installed as North Korea’s ruler by the Soviets in 1948 and in 1950 launched a disastrous invasion against the South.
Kim Il Sung, the current dictator’s grandfather, launched a disastrous invasion against South Korea more than 70 years ago © Universal History Archive/Getty Images
The conflict ended in stalemate three years later, after US-led UN forces and Mao Zedong’s China intervened in support of the South and North, respectively.
With his nuclear weapons programme developing apace, some North Korea watchers worry that the younger Kim hopes to succeed where the “Father Generalissimo” failed: to wrest control of the entire Korean peninsula.
At a military parade in Pyongyang on Monday, Kim Jong Un said that North Korea’s nuclear weapons had a “secondary mission” beyond the “primary mission” of preventing war.
According to North Korean state news agency KCNA, Kim said that “our nuclear [programme] cannot be tied to this one mission of war prevention”. If North Korea’s “fundamental interests” were infringed, he added, “our nuclear forces cannot but go ahead with their secondary mission”.
Lankov said that rather than seeking to invade or occupy South Korea, a more realistic scenario would be the dictator using nuclear blackmail to deter US intervention while coercing South Korean leaders.
“When the situation is favourable, for example when the US is completely distracted by some crisis, or the tenant of the White House is weak or eccentric or Donald Trump the Second, the North Koreans would provoke a crisis, deploy their ICBMs, and keep the Americans out by forcing them to choose between sacrificing San Francisco or Seoul,” said Lankov.
“They could then use their tactical weapons to obliterate the significant conventional superiority of the South Korean forces, and install an ambassador in Seoul with veto power over any South Korean policy they do not like,” he added, likening Kim’s ambitions to Vladimir Putin’s “demilitarisation and denazification” strategy in Ukraine.
“Will it happen? Probably not. Is it their dream? Yes, I think it is.”
Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies think-tank in Seoul, said that the regime had probably noted western reluctance to confront Russia militarily over its invasion of Ukraine.
“Many people assume that North Korea is looking at the war from the perspective of Ukraine, as a country that could be invaded if it does not have nuclear weapons,” said Go.
“But Pyongyang sees things from the perspective of Russia, which is showing how the mere threat of nuclear use can grant the attacker a strategic advantage.”
Go added: “Its nuclear weapons programme cannot be solely defensive when it has hundreds of nuclear warheads and is continuously looking to diversify its means of delivery.”
Kim Jong Un appreciates that ‘the mere threat of nuclear use can grant the attacker a strategic advantage’ © Korean Central News Agency/AFP/Getty Images
North Korea has flaunted an array of increasingly sophisticated weapons in recent months, including a manoeuvrable “hypersonic glide vehicle” and a “monster” ICBM potentially capable of striking the US mainland.
This month, it tested a new type of short-range missile that state media said was the first to boast a tactical nuclear weapons delivery role.
Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister and a high-ranking regime official, recently spelt out a scenario in which North Korea inflicted “extermination” on South Korean forces poised to launch a pre-emptive strike.
“I do think there is a possibility that Kim Jong Un could still pursue the unification of the two Koreas,” said Jeon Kyung-joo, a researcher at South Korea’s state-funded Korea Institute for Defence Analyses.
“He is young enough to have long-term goals, and North Korea’s weapons development is more than sufficient for regime survival.”
Analysts stressed that the most likely path to war on the peninsula remained brinkmanship and miscommunication, rather than an attempt by Kim to succeed where his grandfather failed.
Ankit Panda, a nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that North Korea’s nuclear programme “has actually enhanced its confidence in its ability to coexist alongside South Korea”.
He warned that Pyongyang’s progress in developing tactical nuclear weapons “would lower the already low threshold for nuclear use on the peninsula, and make future bouts of brinkmanship with the US and South Korea all the more dangerous”.
Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now at the Rand Corporation think-tank, said: “North Korea will of course keep the US in mind as it continues to make advancements in its nuclear and missile capabilities.
“But, more than anything, the regime’s development of tactical nuclear weapons bears the potential to threaten South Korea.”
While accepting that the likelihood of a North Korean move to assert control over the peninsula remained remote, Lankov warned policymakers not to exclude it.
“The scenario I have outlined has moved in recent years from the realm of the impossible to the realm of the very unlikely,” said Lankov. “That is a big difference.”
9. Opinion | Kim Jong Un is adopting Putin’s Ukraine playbook
Perhaps. Unless you have not been paying attention. Kim Jong-un is continuing to execute the Kim family regime playbook that is 7 decades old.
Conclusion:
The best way to deter all dictators who menace their democratic neighbors is to make sure that Putin fails in Ukraine so that leaders in Pyongyang or Beijing don’t follow suit. But Kim’s increasingly aggressive actions and statements can’t be ignored. And the West can’t assume the pre-Ukraine rules of risk and deterrence apply to a post-Ukraine world.
Opinion | Kim Jong Un is adopting Putin’s Ukraine playbook
Columnist
April 28, 2022 at 10:56 a.m. EDT
After two years of self-imposed pandemic-related isolation, a megalomaniacal, totalitarian dictator is threatening to attack his democratic neighbor while rattling his nuclear saber at the West. Three months ago, this would have perfectly described Russian President Vladimir Putin. Today, it also fits North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
It’s no coincidence that Kim is becoming more aggressive in his actions and statements since Putin brazenly attacked Ukraine. As Putin rewrites the geopolitical textbooks on risk, deterrence, escalation and nuclear brinkmanship, his pupil Kim is clearly taking notes. While Washington is focused, understandably, on the crisis in Europe, Kim is upping the ante in East Asia.
“It seems that North Korea’s strategy has changed,” Andrei Lankov, professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, told me. “When they started their nuclear program decades ago, they thought about deterrence and self-defense. Now they are working on a program which will one day make conquest possible — conquest of the South, of course.”
He and other experienced Korea-watchers are sounding an alarm because they see Kim mimicking Putin’s Ukraine strategy in two important ways: moving toward an offensive conventional military posture and altering the country’s nuclear doctrine to dissuade the West from interfering in a potential conflict with South Korea. This doesn’t mean Kim is necessarily going to attack South Korea. But it does mean the risk of Kim making that reckless move is increasing, said Lankov.
North Korea is also changing what it says about how and when it might use nuclear weapons against its enemies, especially in South Korea. This month, Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong threatened to use nuclear weapons to “annihilate” South Korea in any armed confrontation. This week, Kim himself declared that North Korea’s nuclear forces had a “secondary mission” beyond deterring war, which many interpret to mean for offensive purposes.
The Biden administration is practicing a rehash of the Obama administration’s “strategic patience,” which amounts to waiting for North Korea to come to the negotiating table. But the countries around North Korea do not have the luxury of waiting for the next crisis to break out. The incoming South Korean government is promising to take a harder line with Pyongyang and bolster South Korea’s defenses. Japan’s prime minister recently declared that Tokyo and Seoul have “no time to waste” in improving their long-troubled ties.
The Biden administration rhetorically supports better trilateral cooperation and condemns Kim’s belligerence — but what new approaches will President Biden actually bring to the region when he visits Tokyo and Seoul next month?
Considering that North Korea is quickly altering the military balance of power in its favor, the United States must respond to Japanese and South Korean requests for deeper military cooperation. But that’s not enough. The truth is, if Kim is willing to take the risk of military retaliation, military hardware alone won’t be able to stop him.
One lesson of Putin’s war on Ukraine should be that only firm defensive alliances with clear commitments can keep aggressive dictators at bay. Perhaps there is an appetite in East Asia for a NATO-type military alliance (likely including Australia) that would convince Kim that South Korea is not a country he can attack with impunity.
Of course, South Korea hosts more than 28,000 U.S. troops and is a formal U.S. ally, unlike Ukraine. But after President Donald Trump’s talk of bringing the troops home and Biden’s pullout of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, Kim could draw the same conclusion that Putin did — that the United States no longer has the resolve to defend democracies far from its borders. .
In addition to bolstering alliances and deterrence, the United States should also actively pursue diplomacy with Pyongyang, said Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He said the Biden administration should push for a limited deal that freezes North Korea’s nuclear program in place, in exchange for limited sanctions relief, while leaving denuclearization for a later date.
“The problem is, if we defer to him and let him create the crisis, now we’re reacting,” O’Hanlon said. “We should not make the same mistakes with Kim Jong Un that we made with Putin.”
The best way to deter all dictators who menace their democratic neighbors is to make sure that Putin fails in Ukraine so that leaders in Pyongyang or Beijing don’t follow suit. But Kim’s increasingly aggressive actions and statements can’t be ignored. And the West can’t assume the pre-Ukraine rules of risk and deterrence apply to a post-Ukraine world.
10. Int'l Rights Groups Call for Abolishment of Anti-Pyongyang Leaflet Ban
I hope Yoon can convince the General Assembly to repeal the law. I also hope the current court case that is being heard will result in a ruling that this law is unconstitutional which would make the difficult work of getting a repal unnecessary.
Int'l Rights Groups Call for Abolishment of Anti-Pyongyang Leaflet Ban
Written: 2022-04-29 14:18:31 / Updated: 2022-04-29 14:52:00
Photo : YONHAP News
International human rights groups called on the South Korean government to lift its domestic ban on sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets after a local defector group claimed to have recently sent such propaganda materials across the inter-Korean border, thereby breaching current legislation.
Speaking to Voice of America(VOA) on Friday, John Sifton, the Asia Advocacy Director at Human Rights Watch, said the law is a violation of freedom of expression and added that if it can not be repealed, it must at least be limited.
Accusing Seoul of being hostile toward non-governmental organizations working on North Korea human rights issues, Sifton said the ban is counterproductive, stressing that Pyongyang needs to face more pressure on its human rights record, not less.
North Korea Freedom Coalition(NKFC) chairperson Suzanne Scholte told VOA that the ban goes against the South Korean constitution, as well as the country's obligation under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
Greg Scarlatoiu, the executive director of the Washington-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, predicted that the law will be abolished under the incoming Yoon Suk Yeol administration.
Depending on changes in the South Korean parliament and the involvement of the Constitutional Court, Scarlatoiu added that even if the law remains on the books, enforcement will eventually cease.
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Editor's Pick
11. South Korea's new president steps into a geopolitical minefield
While Yoon may be a political and foreign policy neophyte, he has chosen some very good people to manage the nationals security and foreign policy efforts. But Northeast Asia is always a proverbial mindfield with so many complex issues.
South Korea's new president steps into a geopolitical minefield | Opinion
Newsweek · by Daniel R. DePetris · April 29, 2022
On May 10, Moon Jae-in will step down as South Korea's president after a five-year term. The man who will replace him, conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, will enter office with a large to-do list waiting for him, the most pressing of which is unifying a highly divided South Korean population, lowering high living costs across the country and ensuring South Korea's economy continues to grow after a 4 percent increase in 2021—the highest spurt in more than a decade.
Yoon is a largely unknown commodity. If people have heard of his name, it's probably due to his career as a prosecutor, during which he helped convict former South Korean Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye on bribery charges. Yoon is a political novice; his very first political campaign was this year's presidential race, a contest he won by less than a percentage point. So it's only natural if countries around the world are a bit curious about how Yoon will run his government or deal with any number of foreign policy issues that await him.
If there is any clarity about Yoon's foreign policy, it can perhaps be summarized as "look at what Moon did and do the opposite." The new conservative government, which will be inaugurated in roughly two weeks, aims to distance itself from many of its predecessor's policies, particularly on North Korea, China and Japan.
Whereas the outgoing Moon administration sought to improve ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un through joint economic endeavors, letter writing and several leader-to-leader summits (during one of those meetings, Moon rode with Kim in an open-top car through the streets of Pyongyang, waving to a large crowd of jubilant North Koreans), Yoon has made it abundantly clear that the summitry days are over. While Yoon has kept the option of diplomacy open, he is in no hurry to mend fences with the North, let alone sign a peace declaration with the Kim dynasty. In an April 24 interview with The Wall Street Journal, Yoon said he was willing to boost the amount of humanitarian aid to North Korea and help Pyongyang attract foreign investment, but only if Kim took the first step toward disarming his nuclear weapons program. Just in case the North viewed him as too overly eager for a negotiation, the South Korean president-elect also discussed the need to strengthening South Korea's military in order to deter, and if necessary preempt, a hypothetical North Korean attack.
On China, Yoon is straddling somewhere between a hawkish South Korean nationalist and a pragmatic technocrat. During the campaign, he wrote an article condemning the Moon government's approach to Beijing, which he called so docile and wimpish that it jeopardized South Korea's national interest. Yoon was referring to Moon's "three no's" policy, designed to accommodate China after a year of hostile relations spurred by Seoul's decision to accept a U.S.-supplied THAAD missile defense system on its territory (the "three no's" included "no additional THAAD deployment, no participation in the U.S.' missile defense network and no establishment of a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan"). The decision put South Korea-China relations into a downward tailspin and prompted Beijing to curtail the China-based activities of a large South Korean retail conglomerate—costing Seoul $7.5 billion in revenue losses. The economic pain was enough of a jolt for Moon, who offered concessions to stabilize the relationship. But for Yoon, the concessions themselves were nothing short of humiliating.
South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol speaks during a news conference. Kim Hong-Ji - Pool/Getty Images
South Korea and Japan are Washington's strongest allies in East Asia. Yet relations between those two allies are in the dumpster, having nosedived after years of mutual antagonism on everything from Tokyo's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean Peninsula, a dicey 2018 military altercation in the Sea of Japan and trade issues. One of the incoming Yoon administration's foremost priorities is to introduce some normality to the South Korea-Japan relationship. Yoon spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shortly after his election victory, and a personal delegation organized by Yoon traveled to Tokyo this week to meet with senior Japanese officials, where both sides expressed an interest in moving on from their years-long rough patch.
Will any of Yoon's policies stick? Or more to the point, will Yoon actually stick with them? Promising things on the campaign trail is one thing, but actually delivering on those promises is something else entirely. The world looks a lot different in the presidential suite than it does on the stump or even in the prosecutor's office. President-elect Yoon may have more trouble than most making the transition because many of his policy proposals will be complicated by the world he's going to inherit.
For instance, how does he intend to redouble the U.S.-South Korea military alliance and increase engagement with the Quad group without undermining his goal of a mutually-respectful dialogue with China, South Korea's largest trading partner? How can he revitalize South Korea-Japan ties when the politics in both countries are exceedingly hawkish against any form of compromise? Karl Friedhoff, an Asia expert at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs observed, "No one [in South Korea] wants to be cast as pro-Japan." Is it possible for Yoon to recommence talks with North Korea and de-escalate the situation on the Korean Peninsula when his entire policy toward Pyongyang depends on Kim waking up one morning and doing the improbable—giving up the North's nuclear warheads? And how does the incoming government expect to balance relations between the United States, its main security ally, and China, Asia's biggest power?
All of these questions will be answered in due time. If Yoon Suk-yeol successfully navigates the turbulent waters of geopolitics in Asia, then he could be remembered as one of South Korea's most transformative presidents. If he doesn't, then Yoon will be just the latest politician unable to compete with his own aspiring rhetoric.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist at Newsweek.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Newsweek · by Daniel R. DePetris · April 29, 2022
12. The Democratic Party’s Prosecution Reform Bill in Korea Resembles Socialist China’s Public Security System
Ouch. This must not stand.
The Democratic Party’s Prosecution Reform Bill in Korea Resembles Socialist China’s Public Security System - OKN
The article was originally published by New Daily and translated by OKN Correspondent.
The Democratic Party of Korea(DP) unilaterally passed a bill that would completely strip away the South Korean prosecution’s investigative powers through a parliamentary committee on early Wednesday morning. The prosecution pointed out that the bill is aimed at following the “Chinese public security system,” but politicians and the media are not listening.
The Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office’s District Attorney Lee Jung-soo and 1st to 4th deputy district attorneys held a press conference on April 26 where they pointed out the problems with the settled proposal regarding the prosecution reform bill agreed by the ruling and opposition parties. They appealed to them to block the enactment of the bill.
Among them, Kim Tae-hoon, the 4th deputy district attorney, drew attention with his explanation. Kim pointed out, “If the investigative powers are removed [from the prosecution] as outlined in the settled proposal, it will be difficult to check the police.” He added that “it is similar to the system that China and other past communist states aimed to pursue.”
“In most countries that have a civil law system such as Germany, France, and Austria, the prosecution directs police investigations and has standardized supervisory authority,” Kim said.
In the prosecution’s internal network called “E-Pros,” comments have been made that the reform bill to completely abolish the prosecution’s investigative powers is similar to the law on China’s public security.
On April 21, Lee Jae-yeon, a prosecutor at the Western District Office of the Daegu District Prosecutors’ Office, wrote a piece titled, “Global Standard Chinese Criminal Procedure Act and Reform Bill,” pointing out the similarity between the controversial Korean reform bill and Chinese law.
“There was a familiar part while looking at the recently proposed revisions to the Criminal Procedure Act and the Prosecutors’ Office Act,” Lee said. He then pointed out Article 19 of China’s Criminal Procedure Law, which states that except for certain cases stipulated by the law, the public security office (under the Ministry of Public Security) is in charge of criminal investigations.
Lee argued that it is similar to the ruling party’s prosecution reform bill, which deprived the prosecution of the right to investigate and limited the scope of the prosecution’s investigations to crimes committed by the police and other civil servants. “Did they refer to this [the Chinese law] as a global standard?” Lee asked. “In fact, even China states that there are cases that need the prosecution’s investigation. Which country’s law states that the prosecution can only have the authority to indict but no authority to investigate?”
On April 13, Shin Heon-seop, a prosecutor at the Seoul Southern District Prosecutors’ Office inquired on E-Pros, “Where is the ‘advanced country’ stated in the ‘advanced prosecution system’ that the DP says?”
Shin, who pointed out that the bill itself is unconstitutional, said, “I ran into a fundamental question of what the advanced prosecution system is to deprive the prosecution of the right to investigate and give the police uncontrolled power.” He then explained the cases of each country.
Shin explained that in the United States, not only federal prosecutors but also local prosecutors have the right to investigate and control judicial police, and there is no other advanced country where the prosecution does not have the right to investigate.
“Then the only country left is China, a so-called ‘economically advanced country.’ I thought that this socialist country’s criminal law system could not have been referenced by a liberal democracy,” Shin said. Shin argued that the current reform bill reminds him of the Chinese prosecution, which only has the nominal power to indict but has no control over the Chinese public security office’s investigations which only the Communist Party can control.
Others in political circles are raising similar points. Kim Woong, a former prosecutor and current lawmaker from the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), wrote on his Facebook on April 16 that the Chinese public security system is the model for the DP’s bill to completely abolish the prosecution’s investigative powers.
“Looking at the DP’s reform bill, some say that it is a strange law that does not exist in the world, but this is different from the truth,” Kim said. “The DP’s bill has a clear model. It is [based on] China’s public security system.”
According to Kim, China’s prosecution does what the public security office tells it to do. If the public security office asks for a warrant, the prosecution will issue a warrant. If the public security office asks for an indictment, the prosecution will indict, Kim said. If China’s prosecution fails to indict someone after the public security office transferred the case for an indictment, the prosecution has to send a report to the public security office explaining the reason. Kim argued that this shows that the public security office is technically above the prosecution in China.
“The bill means asking for warrants on police orders and prosecuting on police orders, which is the relationship between the Chinese public security office and the Chinese prosecution,” Kim said. “The bill to completely abolish the prosecution’s investigative powers is completely the same.”
“During Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution, China attacked and got rid of the prosecution by saying that they were influenced by capitalism when prosecutors called for criminal justice and protection of human rights while the government was trying to purge Mao’s opposition,” Kim argued. “The Chinese Communist Party later created the people’s prosecutors’ office [Supreme People’s Procuratorate] by arguing that it should be the people that prosecute people directly.”
Kim also introduced the police’s argument that he heard at a debate on the adjustment of investigative powers between the prosecution and police in the past. “When I said at the 2019 investigative rights settlement debate that ‘the adjustment bill is plagiarism of China’s public security law,’ the police proudly insisted that ‘China’s criminal procedure law is more advanced than our law.’”
“However, Hong Kong citizens risked their lives to protest for democracy because they opposed being subject to China’s criminal justice system,” he said. “But we are now trying to adopt the Chinese public security system ourselves.”
Kim then argued that the separation of investigative and prosecution rights, which the Moon Jae-in administration and the DP have promoted over the past five years, follows the Chinese public security system.
“The systems brought in during the adjustment of the country’s first investigation rights, requests for supplementary investigation, the right to terminate investigations, and the deprivation of investigative command are all copied from the Chinese public security system,” Kim said. “Furthermore, the article related to the supplementary investigation request copied the provisions of the Chinese law apart for one letter. The Chinese Communist Party protected its one-party dictatorship with its public security system.”
Kim is not the only one making this claim. The JoongAng Ilbo newspaper published an article on the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), on June 10, 2019. At that time, the newspaper cited comments made by Yoon Woong-gul, head of the Jeonju District Prosecutor’s Office.
“It is wrong to choose a way to undermine the prosecution’s essential function by copying the Chinese system, which has taken a different path from the Western advanced system,” Yoon wrote on the “E-Pros” forum at that time.
“China’s National Audit Office is similar to Korea’s CIO that is being pushed,” Yoon said. “The media assesses that the Chinese National Audit Office is contributing to the consolidation of power and long-term rule of its leader by efficiently eliminating political opponents in the name of corruption.”
Yoon added that the “reform of the judicial system should be carried out by comparing it with other countries’ judicial systems, but I am very concerned that South Korea is currently leaning toward political logic.” He argued that “not looking at advanced foreign systems is like covering your eyes and ears.”
Author
13. Perpetrator of South Korea’s ‘Bitcoin-gate’ untraceable
The Korean military and government is going to have to conduct a lot of training and institute stronger procedures to defend against these espionage operations via social media. This is a major compromise.
Perpetrator of South Korea’s ‘Bitcoin-gate’ untraceable
A North Korean hacker at the heart of the espionage scandal engulfing South Korea may have covered his/her tracks, thanks to a loophole in the country’s recently-introduced ‘Travel Rule,’ Forkast learns.
An active-duty military officer in the South Korean Army and a digital asset exchange executive leaked confidential information to an agent working for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in exchange for Bitcoin, Seoul alleges.
The alleged incident occurred earlier this year in January.
The first known case of a South Korean military officer assisting North Korea in its attempts to undermine the country using social networking and cryptocurrencies is likely to impact the hard-earned legitimacy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were starting to have with governments and regulatory agencies around the world.
It is further likely to taint the sector even as onerous know-your-customer norms and anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing norms stifle innovation and speed of development.
Bitcoin Gate
The 29-year-old Army Captain photographed and leaked military secrets with a burner phone. He turned to the device after the quality of pictures from a wrist watch with a hidden camera was deemed to be too poor. The watch was allegedly procured by the 38-year-old crypto exchange CEO.
Left: Hidden wristwatch camera, Right: ‘Poison Tap’ | Image: Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office
The army officer received about 48 million South Korean won (about US$38,000) in Bitcoin while the crypto executive received about US$600,000 in crypto from the North Korean hacker via a foreign crypto exchange, the prosecutor’s office.
The affair started when the Army Captain, saddled with debts due to a gambling addiction, met the hacker on a social network in 2020.
Forkast learns that the North Korean hacker instructed the crypto executive to install a hacking device named the ‘Poison Tap.’
The software would have granted the hacker, and North Korea in turn, access to the Korean Joint Command and Control System (KJCCS), South Korea’s super-critical internal military network. The compromised army captain had the security clearance to log into the system, Forkast learns.
The national defense ministry says that if the hack was successful, it would have seriously undermined South Korea’s national security.
The two Koreas have never officially ended their 73-year war, maintaining standing armies on the ‘38th parallel,’ the popular name given to 38 degree North latitude in East Asia that demarcates the two countries.
“But the defense ministry was able to seize the attack preemptively,” the ministry official told Forkast.
However the development offers a glimpse into the increasingly sophisticated means at the disposal of the North Korea regime in its attempts to use cryptocurrencies to earn money through illegitimate means as well as undermine the security of its foes and rivals.
American agencies attributed the US$620 million hack on Axie Infinity’s Ronin blockchain to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. An unreleased United Nations document cited by media alleged that the stolen funds are being used to fund the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Cloak of anonymity
While the Seoul Central District Prosecutor’s Office has successfully booked the military officer and the crypto executive jointly with the police agency and the Ministry of National Defense, Forkast learns that the North Korean hacker behind this national security-threatening scheme has covered his/her tracks.
“There’s still no progress in tracking the North Korean agent,” a representative of the Ministry of National Defense told Forkast. “It’s because the agent and the two defendants communicated on Telegram, and transacted in Bitcoin.”
“Telegram does not really cooperate with the investigation, it guarantees full anonymity and privacy,” said Hwang Suk-jin, professor of information security at Dongguk University.
“And since the funds were delivered in Bitcoin, [the investigation] needs to track the digital wallets to see where the money originated from, and how it’s been circulated,” Hwang told Forkast. “But South Korea’s Travel Rule mandate does not trace transactions between individual wallets.”
The rule requires South Korean exchanges to collect a sender and receiver’s personal information for all transactions over one million Korean won (US$794.28). But this rule does not apply to peer-to-peer trades.
A police agency official told Forkast that the joint investigation with the prosecutors and the Defense Security Support Command (DSSC) will continue.
Notwithstanding that, experts believe the incident will only make know-your-customer (KYC) norms more onerous for cryptocurrency firms, even as South Korean banks were trying to be more directly involved in the sector.
Jisu Park, chief executive officer at blockchain security firm Sooho.io told Forkast that there are inevitable loopholes that can enable bad actors in any transactions, whether it be crypto or fiat.
“However, we’re seeing a positive path among regulators to impose more stringent AML/KYC requirements on exchanges, and even on wallets as they institute their own financial products,” Park said.
14. Police say anti-US military activist vandalized Douglas MacArthur statue in South Korea
Despite the high level of Korean support for the alliance there are some radicals in Korea.
Police say anti-US military activist vandalized Douglas MacArthur statue in South Korea
A man writes “Deport U.S. troops” with spray paint near a statue of Gen. Douglas MacArthur at Freedom Park in Incheon, South Korea, Thursday, April 28, 2022. The image is from a video posted to Facebook by Peace Agreement Movement Headquarters, an anti-U.S. military group. (Facebook)
CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — South Korean police arrested a man Thursday suspected of defacing a bronze statue of the late General of the Army Douglas MacArthur in Incheon.
Detectives from the Incheon Jungbu station took a 60-year-old Korean man into custody following a 2:50 a.m. disturbance call at Freedom Park, an Incheon police official told Stars and Stripes by phone on Thursday. Police did not identify the man but said he belongs to an activist group called the Peace Agreement Movement Headquarters.
The group describes itself on its website as a peaceful organization that opposes the deployment of American troops in South Korea and their joint military exercises.
The man is suspected of destroying public property by writing “Deport U.S. troops” in red paint at the base of MacArthur’s statue located at the park, the police official said.
The man is also accused of chiseling a nearby inscription honoring MacArthur’s place in South Korea’s history, as well as defacing MacArthur’s face on a separate memorial with red paint.
South Korean government officials customarily speak to the media on condition of anonymity.
The man has a history of run-ins with law enforcement, according to the police official, who said an investigation is underway. He did not say if any charges were filed against the man.
A man stands alongside the defaced statue of Gen. Douglas MacArthur at Freedom Park in Incheon, South Korea, Thursday, April 28, 2021. The image is from a video posted to Facebook by Peace Agreement Movement Headquarters, an anti-U.S. military group. (Facebook)
Videos and photos posted Thursday on the group’s Facebook page showed an unidentified man using a hammer and red spray-paint to deface the memorials. A caption to the posts said the man acted “with a sense of loyalty derived from the only wish for the independence and unification of the fatherland.”
The group “makes a strong demand for the abolishment of [U.S.-South Korean] war games for an aggressive war on North Korea,” the post said.
The 10-foot-tall statue of MacArthur was erected in 1957 and has since been the source of ire for protesters. In 2018, a 61-year-old pastor was arrested and charged for setting the statue on fire, according to a Yonhap News Agency report.
MacArthur commanded the U.S.-led United Nations forces during the 1950-53 Korean War, and before that, Allied forces in the Pacific in World War II.
While his military achievements are reflected in his numerous awards, including a Medal of Honor for his campaign in the Philippines against Japanese forces, he is widely acknowledged in South Korean history for orchestrating an amphibious assault against North Korean forces in Incheon.
On Sept. 15, 1950, MacArthur oversaw Operation Chromite, a risky amphibious landing at the Incheon seawall behind North Korean lines. The successful landing proved to be the stepping point for retaking Seoul, the capital city, roughly two weeks later.
According to the South Korean Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs website, the statue of MacArthur was erected in Freedom Park because it commands the view of the site of the Incheon landing.”
Stars and Stripes reporter Yoo Kyong Chang contributed to this report.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
