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Quotes of the Day:
"As far as we can discern, the sole purpose of human existence is to kindle a light of meaning in the darkness of mere being."
– Carl Jung
"Education costs money. But then so does ignorance."
– Sir Claus Moser
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows."
- Epictetus
1. HRNK report sheds light on human rights abuse of N. Korean nuclear scientists
2. U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launches as UNSC resolution violation
3.VOA: [Washington Talk] The best deterrent is 'hitting the starting point'... When executing ‘Remove Command’
4. N. Korea slams U.S. over redesignation as uncooperative country in counterterrorism efforts
5. Top U.S. negotiator for defense cost sharing talks arrives in Seoul
6. Yoon vows to advance freedom, welfare to uphold spirit of 1980 pro-democracy uprising
7. Kim Jong Un guides tactical missile test with ‘autonomous navigation’
8. U.S. expert says N. Korea might ignore Trump if he returns to White House
9. [Column] US troop withdrawal from Korea could be the Acheson Line all over
10. Satellite imagery shows screen installed around important statues in Pyongyang
11. How Trump could push Japan, S Korea to go nuclear
1.HRNK report sheds light on human rights abuse of N. Korean nuclear scientists
Robert Collins' seminar report can be downloaded here: https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/STTB_web.pdf
HRNK report sheds light on human rights abuse of N. Korean nuclear scientists | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 18, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 17 (Yonhap) -- South Korean and U.S. officials have stressed the need to address an "inextricable" link between North Korea's human rights and security issues, claiming Pyongyang's repressive political climate has led it to divert its scarce resources to its weapons programs without public pushback.
The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), a U.S.-based nongovernmental institute, issued a report Friday to further substantiate the claim as it sheds light on how the reclusive regime has utilized its nuclear scientists and engineers to maintain and advance its sprawling nuclear program.
Casting the North's nuclear science personnel as "slaves to the bomb," the report delves into the human rights context of the North's nuclear program -- an aspect eclipsed in part by North Korean media highlighting the ostensible loyalty and devotions of the regime's scientists and related workers. Robert Collins, a senior HRNK advisor, authored it.
"Along with our South Korean counterparts, we've been very outspoken over the past few years in our belief that the DPRK human rights issues and the DPRK security issues are inextricably linked," U.S. Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues Julie Turner said at a HRNK event on the report's publication.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"It's the DPRK's repressive political climate that allows the government to divert such a large share of its budget and resources to weapons without comment from the population, which continues to suffer from severe economic hardships and malnutrition," she added.
U.S. Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues Julie Turner speaks about a report on the human rights situation of North Korean nuclear scientists released by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), a U.S.-based nongovernmental institute, during an event in Washington on May 17, 2024. (Yonhap)
The report focuses on the predicament of the North's nuclear scientists, engineers and workers who work at nuclear laboratories, uranium mines, nuclear testing sites and other related installations. Citing a 2010 estimate, it put the total number of the North's nuclear-related personnel at 6,000.
It underscores that the nuclear workers are compelled "from grade school until the end of their lives" to serve the regime's nuclear program "in any way they are directed."
"This includes studying nuclear program-related subjects, living where they are told, marrying who they are told, eating what they are provided, confessing weekly to their shortcomings relative to regime ideology and workplace performance, working in unsafe conditions," it said.
It also debunks the speculation that nuclear scientists and engineers hold a prestigious place in North Korean society due to their skills and contributions.
"That is not the case," it said. "As such, the treatment of Kim's 'slaves to the bomb' reflects the rigid structure of the North Korean regime and constitutes violations of international human rights law."
Meanwhile, Turner underscored the United States' commitment to addressing human rights concerns, including about the North's labor practices involving workers at home and abroad, through sanctions, import restrictions, business advisories and other tools.
"We will shine a light on the DPRK source of labor practices both within its borders and among the workers it sends abroad to labor in mining, logging, seafood processing, information technology and other industries," she said.
This photo shows the cover of a report on the human rights situation of North Korean nuclear scientists released by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), a U.S.-based nongovernmental institute. (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 18, 2024
2. U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launches as UNSC resolution violation
I will give the unnamed official the benefit of the doubt and assume Yonhap just did not report the official's entire remarks. As I mentioned at the HRNK event for Robert Collins' "Slaves to the Bomb report," every time we have to address north Korea's nuclear and missile threats we need to include a human rights statement along the lines of the Korean people in the north are suffering terribly because Kim Jong Un prioritizes the development advanced weapons over the welfare of people. We should use this statistic. In 2022 the regime wasted $615 million on missile tests while the World Food Program the north needed $415 in food aid to make up the shortfalls. Every time we only talk about north Korean nuclear weapons and missiles we reinforce regime legitimacy because the Propaganda and Agitation Department will exploit those statement to demonstrate the world fears Kim Jong Un with nuclear weapons. But when we focus on human rights we undermine regime legitimacy. And we know that Kim Jong Un is sensitive to human rights criticism - he recently responded to the human rights abuses in the fishing industry by authorizing 30 minute lunch breaks for workers. Not much of an accommodation but it does show the regime is pressured by human rights and feels it must respond.
U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launches as UNSC resolution violation | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 18, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 18 (Yonhap) -- The United States on Saturday condemned North Korea's ballistic missile launches this week as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, stressing its close coordination with allies and partners to address Pyongyang's "dangerous" provocations.
On Saturday, the North's state media reported that Pyongyang conducted a test-fire of a tactical ballistic missile equipped with a new "autonomous" navigation system Friday, in yet another sign of its push to sharpen its weapons capabilities.
"The United States condemns the DPRK's May 17 ballistic missile launches," a State Department spokesperson said in response to a question from Yonhap News Agency. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"Like all other DPRK ballistic missile launches in recent years, these launches violated multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions, and posed a threat to regional and international peace and security," the official added.
The spokesperson reaffirmed that Washington harbors no "hostile" intent toward the North.
"We continue to consult closely with the Republic of Korea, Japan, and other allies and partners about how to best engage the DPRK, deter aggression, and coordinate international responses to the DPRK's ongoing and dangerous provocations," the official said.
The South Korean military said Friday that it detected the North's firing of several short-range ballistic missiles from the eastern coastal city of Wonsan. The missiles flew about 300 kilometers and landed in the East Sea, it said.
The latest launches came after South Korea and the U.S. staged combined aerial drills involving advanced stealth jets Thursday in an apparent show of airpower against evolving North Korean military threats.
The State Department in Washington, D.C. (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 18, 2024
3. [Washington Talk] The best deterrent is 'hitting the starting point'... When executing ‘Remove Command’
VOA's Eunjung Cho hosts the Honorable Mary Beth Long and me for this week's Washington Talk for broadcast into Pyongyang. Target audience is the north Korean regime and elite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G1Zg_JvsUM&t=160
[Washington Talk] The best deterrent is 'hitting the starting point'... When executing ‘Remove Command’
4,108 views Premiered 4 hours ago #WashingtonTalk #VOA #ChinaRussiaSummit
It has been suggested that if North Korea provokes, a zero-point strike, including the removal of its command, should be carried out. The argument is that since the helpless response has encouraged further provocations, Kim Jong-un's will must be broken through firm physical punishment. Host: Eun-Jeong Cho / Interview: Mary Beth Long (former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs), David Maxwell (Vice President of the Asia-Pacific Strategic Center)
4. N. Korea slams U.S. over redesignation as uncooperative country in counterterrorism efforts
Excerpts:
"The DPRK and the U.S. are definitely in hostile relations, and it can be said there exists no field of cooperation between the DPRK and the U.S.," said Kwon in an English-language statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
N. Korea slams U.S. over redesignation as uncooperative country in counterterrorism efforts | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 18, 2024
SEOUL, May 18 (Yonhap) -- North Korea denounced the United States on Saturday over its recent redesignation as a country not cooperating fully with U.S. counterterrorism efforts, insisting that no area in which the two countries can cooperate exists.
Kwon Jong-gun, director-general of the department of U.S. affairs at the North's foreign ministry, issued the criticism after the United States kept the North on its list of countries not fully cooperating with its counterterrorism efforts earlier this week.
"The DPRK and the U.S. are definitely in hostile relations, and it can be said there exists no field of cooperation between the DPRK and the U.S.," said Kwon in an English-language statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Kwon accused the U.S. anti-terrorist efforts of being aimed at interfering with the internal affairs of other countries, claiming that such efforts give rise to various terrorist groups, according to the KCNA.
"We remind the U.S. once again that we have neither intention nor interest in cooperation with the U.S. in its 'efforts against terrorism' exclusively used as a tool for interference and aggression on other sovereign states," Kwon said.
On Wednesday, the U.S. State Department kept North Korea, Iran, Syria and Venezuela on its annual list of countries not fully cooperating with its counterterrorism efforts. North Korea has been on the list since 1997.
This undated file photo, provided by Yonhap News TV, shows Kwon Jong-gun, director-general of the department of U.S. affairs at North Korea's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 18, 2024
4. Top U.S. negotiator for defense cost sharing talks arrives in Seoul
Will getting this done by December ensure the agreement remains in place if there is a new administration.
Top U.S. negotiator for defense cost sharing talks arrives in Seoul | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · May 18, 2024
By Kim Seung-yeon
SEOUL, May 18 (Yonhap) -- The top U.S. negotiator for defense cost sharing talks with South Korea arrived here Saturday, ahead of a new round of negotiations set for next week.
The arrival of the delegation, led by Linda Specht, lead negotiator for security agreements at the U.S. State Department, came as the allies are set to hold their second round of talks on determining how much Seoul should shoulder for the upkeep of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
"This is really about the importance of our alliance, our relationships as two countries and the support we give one another," Specht told reporters upon arriving at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul.
"I'm looking forward to a good set of talks," she said.
The talks will take place in Seoul from Tuesday through Thursday, between Specht and her South Korean counterpart, Lee Tae-woo, the chief negotiator from Seoul's foreign ministry.
Linda Specht (front), chief U.S. negotiator for defense cost sharing with South Korea, arrives at Incheon International Airport in Incheon, west of Seoul, on May 18, 2024. (Yonhap)
Seoul and Washington launched the negotiations in Hawaii last month, at an earlier time than planned, amid a view that South Korea seeks to strike a new deal sooner to avoid the risk of facing tough bargaining from the United States for a big increase in its share if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.
The two sides had grueling negotiations for the latest deal, known as the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), as Washington under Trump's presidency had demanded more than a fivefold increase in Seoul's payment to US$5 billion.
The negotiations had hit a deadlock, placing South Koreans working for the U.S. military here under a temporary furlough amid the absence of an agreement.
The current 11th SMA was signed soon after the launch of the Joe Biden administration. Under the six-year deal, due to expire at the end of 2025, South Korea agreed to raise the payment by 13.9 percent from 2019 to $1.03 billion for 2021.
Seoul has called for a new deal to come at a "reasonable level" to ensure the conditions for the "stable stationing of the USFK and to strengthen the allies' combined defense posture."
Washington has said it seeks to pursue "a fair and equitable" outcome in the talks, as most of Seoul's contributions in the SMA are expended in South Korea's domestic economy, representing a "powerful investment" in the bilateral alliance.
Since 1991, Seoul has partially shouldered costs under the SMA for Korean USFK workers; the construction of military installations, such as barracks, and training, educational, operational and communications facilities; and other logistical support.
elly@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · May 18, 2024
5. Yoon vows to advance freedom, welfare to uphold spirit of 1980 pro-democracy uprising
(LEAD) Yoon vows to advance freedom, welfare to uphold spirit of 1980 pro-democracy uprising | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 18, 2024
(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead, photo; UPDATES with Yoon's remarks throughout)
SEOUL, May 18 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed Saturday to advance the freedom and welfare of the people as a way to uphold the spirit of the 1980 pro-democracy uprising in the southwestern city of Gwangju.
Yoon made the remark during a ceremony marking the 44th anniversary of the Gwangju Democratization Movement in the city located 267 kilometers south of Seoul. The ceremony was attended by some 2,500 people, including lawmakers from the rival parties and families of the victims.
"The entire people of South Korea heading into a happy, prosperous and hopeful future is the way to correctly inherit the May spirit in this era, and the path to truly honor the sacrifice and tears of Gwangju," Yoon said during the ceremony at the May 18th National Cemetery.
He said while political freedom in South Korea has increased since the movement, there remain many people without economic freedom.
"We must quickly grow the economy, restore the ladder of social mobility, and raise the level of freedom and welfare enjoyed by the people," he said.
"By fairly sharing the fruits of growth and more closely protecting the socially weak, we must open an 'age centered on the ordinary person and the middle class' where everyone is happy."
It marked Yoon's third straight attendance at the anniversary ceremony since taking office in May 2022.
On May 18, 1980, demonstrators, including students, protested against the then ruling junta led by Chun Doo-hwan, who seized power in a military coup the previous year. The military conducted a bloody crackdown on them, leaving hundreds dead.
President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a ceremony marking the 44th anniversary of the Gwangju Democratization Movement in Gwangju, 267 kilometers south of Seoul, on May 18, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 18, 2024
6. Kim Jong Un guides tactical missile test with ‘autonomous navigation’
Autonomous guidance could be anything to include guidance by gravity. Maybe it is just a FROG (free rocket over ground). Accuracy is defined in relation to the target. It could be just like me as the most accurate parachutist in the world - I never miss earth.
NEWS
Kim Jong Un guides tactical missile test with ‘autonomous navigation’
North Korean leader also visits another defense factory, warns enemies ‘not to play with fire’
https://www.nknews.org/2024/05/kim-jong-un-guides-tactical-missile-test-with-autonomous-navigation/
Jeongmin Kim May 18, 2024
North Korea tests a tactical ballistic missile system with "autonomous navigation" capabilities | Image: Rodong Sinmun (May 18, 2024)
North Korea tested a tactical ballistic missile system off its east coast with an “autonomous navigation system” on Friday, party daily Rodong Sinmun reported Saturday.
This follows a report from the South Korean military on Friday that it detected several “flying objects presumed to be short-range ballistic missiles” traveling 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the Wonsan area.
Leader Kim Jong Un was on hand to verify “the accuracy and reliability of the autonomous navigation system,” the Rodong article stated, while also describing the launch as part of “regular activities of the DPRK Missile Administration and its affiliated defense science institutes for the rapid technological development of weapon systems.”
Kim reportedly expressed “great satisfaction over the military strategic value” of the test and the successful integration of the autonomous navigation system.
State media released photos of the launch, but did not specify the number of missiles fired or the duration of their flight.
Kim Jong Un visits defense industrial complex | Image: Rodong Sinmun (May 18, 2024)
1
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3
MUNITIONS FACTORY VISIT
On Saturday, the Rodong Sinmun also reported that Kim Jong Un recently visited a defense industrial complex on an unspecified date to inspect on-site weaponry.
The North Korean leader, according to the Rodong report on Saturday, asserted that nuclear deterrence, which may seem intangible to enemies, must be demonstrated strongly to deter them from aggression, emphasizing the critical role of nuclear weapons.
“We cannot but more strictly acknowledge the necessity of bolstering nuclear war deterrent to cope with the security environment of the country created due to the enemies’ reckless military confrontation moves, which have become more undisguised and desperately developed recently,” Kim was quoted as saying.
”Enemies would be afraid of and dare not to play with fire only when they witness the nuclear combat posture of our state which is hard for them to feel actually,” Kim reportedly added.
He also expressed satisfaction with the first half of 2024’s weapons production results at the munitions factory and was optimistic about meeting this year’s production targets, noting significant progress and updates to the weapons, though specific details were not provided.
A panoramic view of the defense industrial complex | Image: Rodong Sinmun (May 18, 2024)
North Korea’s missile launch on Friday and the report on Kim’s munitions factory came a day after China and Russia reiterated their support for the DPRK.
At a rare summit in Beijing, Chinese and Russian leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin articulated opposition to U.S. and allied military “intimidation” against North Korea in a joint statement.
Amid ongoing evidence of arms deals between Moscow and Pyongyang, the Saturday reports about Kim’s munitions factory visit and missile test guidance come a day after the leader’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong claimed that DPRK weapons development is not for export.
The country has “no intention to export our military technical capabilities to any country or open them to the public,” she said in a statement.
On Friday, state media also railed against a recent U.S.-ROK aerial exercise, with the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) issuing a commentary stating that the drill shows the “hostile nature” of the two countries.
In a separate statement, North Korean state media had also warned against the allies’ large-scale Ulchi Freedom Shield joint drills set for August, warning that Seoul and Washington could face a “catastrophic aftermath” if they carry it out, calling it a nuclear exercise.
Edited by Arius Derr
7. North Korea's Kim seeks to shore up nuclear force, oversees missile test, KCNA says
At the expense of the Korean people in the north.
North Korea's Kim seeks to shore up nuclear force, oversees missile test, KCNA says
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-oversaw-missile-test-with-new-guidance-system-kcna-says-2024-05-17/
By Joyce Lee
May 17, 20246:20 PM EDTUpdated 18 hours ago
Item 1 of 3 A missile is launched, as North Korea conducted a test firing of a tactical ballistic missile on Friday, state media KCNA said on Saturday, at an unknown location in North Korea, in a handout picture obtained by Reuters on May 18, 2024. KCNA via REUTERS
[1/3]A missile is launched, as North Korea conducted a test firing of a tactical ballistic missile on Friday, state media KCNA said on Saturday, at an unknown location in North Korea, in a handout picture obtained by Reuters on May 18, 2024. KCNA via REUTERS Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SEOUL, May 18 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered accelerated production to strengthen the country's nuclear force more rapidly, on the same day he oversaw a test of tactical ballistic missiles with new guidance system, state media KCNA said on Saturday.
While visiting an arms factory on Friday, Kim made the production order "to cope with ...the enemies' reckless military confrontation" and bolster nuclear war deterrence, KCNA said.
This way, the enemy would be afraid of North Korea's nuclear combat posture, Kim added.
North Korea fired a number of short-range ballistic missiles towards the sea off its east coast on Friday, South Korea's military had said. Kim expressed satisfaction with the successful missile test featuring an autonomous navigation system, KCNA said.
Friday's launches came a day after the U.S. and South Korea conducted joint drills with stealth fighter jets simulating air combat.
Coming soon: Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here.
Reporting by Joyce Lee; Editing by Leslie Adler, Deepa Babington and Cynthia Osterman
8. U.S. expert says N. Korea might ignore Trump if he returns to White House
U.S. expert says N. Korea might ignore Trump if he returns to White House | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 18, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may not be "eager" to engage with former U.S. President Donald Trump if he wins the White House in the Nov. 5 election, a U.S. expert has said, noting Pyongyang has already been "burnt" by Trump.
Ralph Cossa, president emeritus at the Pacific Forum, made the forecast in a recent piece for The National Interest, an international affairs magazine, suspecting Pyongyang will be more interested in "what kind of damage a second Trump administration will do to relations between South Korea and the United States.
"Having been burnt once or twice already by Trump, Kim Jong-un is not going to be eager to try again. In truth, Kim Jong-un has already gotten what he most wanted from Trump: international legitimacy," Cossa wrote.
"Why risk getting the rug pulled out from under him again, just for another photo op? Kim certainly understands the prospects of getting unrestricted aid from Trump 2 at this point are slim to none," he added.
With Russia now supporting North Korea, Kim has made it clear he is no longer interested in dialogue with either Washington, Seoul or Tokyo, he said.
"A change in administration in Washington is not likely to change this," he said.
This photo, taken on June 30, 2019, shows then U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meeting at the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom. (Yonhap)
His remarks came amid speculation that Trump could consider another round of personal diplomacy with Kim, which led to three in-person meetings with the North Korean leader during his presidency, including their first-ever summit in Singapore in 2018.
Cossa pointed out that chances are "pretty slim" that Beijing or Moscow would apply pressure to Kim to resume negotiations with Washington or Seoul.
"Both see the value in keeping the North Korean threat alive, as one struggles with Ukraine and the other continues to apply pressure on Taiwan," he said.
He also noted that there is little chance that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will change his "get-tough" policy toward the North.
"I suspect that Pyongyang (and Beijing and Moscow) will be more interested in seeing what kind of damage a second Trump administration will do to U.S.-ROK relations than how it will impact U.S.-DPRK relations," he said.
ROK and DPRK stand for the official names of South Korea and North Korea, the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, respectively.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 18, 2024
9. [Column] US troop withdrawal from Korea could be the Acheson Line all over
Hankyoreh is a progressive leaning newspaper that has been critical of the alliance.
[Column] US troop withdrawal from Korea could be the Acheson Line all over
Posted on : 2024-05-16 17:00 KST Modified on : 2024-05-16 17:00 KST
https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/english_editorials/1140836?utm
A withdrawal of US troops from Korea would be an erasure of the “collateral” that guarantees Washington’s defense of Seoul
President Yoon Suk-yeol (right) sings “American Pie” at a state dinner hosted in his honor at the White House in April 2023, as US President Joe Biden cheers him on. (Yonhap)
By Gil Yun-hyung, editorial writer
Even now, just thinking about that time makes me think I’m going to jolt out of bed in the middle of the night.
On May 5, 2006, villagers gathered in the fields of Daechuri and Doduri surrounding Pyeongtaek, where the expansion of Camp Humphreys was set to take place, banding together to protest the base’s construction. The government dispatched 11,500 police officers from 110 squadrons and over 2,800 troops from two battalions of the Capital Corps’ 700th Commando Regiment.
The first clash between local farmers and residents and government troops and police occurred at the main gate to the US base, which was in front of the main entrance of the now-defunct Daechuri Elementary School. The ferocity of government forces sent the local farmers, workers and students retreating into the elementary school, where they held out for several hours before being dragged out in a bloody, chaotic struggle. That is how the Korean government secured the land that now hosts the largest US overseas military base, Camp Humphreys.
I was so shocked by the incident that for a while, I couldn’t even look in Pyeongtaek’s direction. As time passed, however, I was forced to face the grave realities of the security situation involving the Korean Peninsula and East Asia. In the face of these realities, my perspective gradually changed. When considering South Korea’s national security, and the importance of the deterrence provided by the US military in this role, the “costs” of stationing US troops on South Korean soil are unavoidable and necessary. This change of heart caused me to lose many friends I’d made during the Pyeongtaek resistance days.
So, what is the deterrence offered by US Forces Korea? In a book of interviews by Japanese journalist Tsuyoshi Sunohara, “Japan-US alliance vs. China-North Korea” (2010), Joseph Nye Jr., a professor emeritus at Harvard University, offers an interesting answer. Nye served as the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs under the Bill Clinton administration. He argued that when it comes to US extended deterrence, the best guarantee of the US’ ability to protect Japan in a nuclear event isn’t nuclear weapons but the presence of US troops in Japan.
The truth is, one country claiming that it is willing to absorb a nuclear attack in order to protect another country is not believable from a simple common-sense perspective. It’s asking us to believe an obvious lie. On this note, let me share an anecdote.
At the Paris summit on June 2, 1961, French President Charles de Gaulle asked US President John F. Kennedy if the US would protect France in the event of a Soviet nuclear attack. A young Kennedy gave the textbook answer of “Yes.” Having lived through World War II and the Nazi occupation, de Gaulle asked which targets the US would attack in the event of a Soviet offensive. He pressed even further to see if Kennedy was willing to say the US would sacrifice Washington and New York to save Paris. Naturally, Kennedy could not answer such a question, which was an admission that there was no reason to prevent France from obtaining nuclear weapons.
On that note, would the US be willing to sacrifice Washington and New York to save Seoul? Naturally, the diplomatic answer is “Yes.” In the Washington Declaration adopted on April 26, 2023, the White House stated, “President Biden highlighted the US commitment to extend deterrence to the ROK is backed by the full range of US capabilities, including nuclear.”
Anybody who believes this lie in full is a fool, but South Korea has failed to question US leaders as de Gaulle pressed Kennedy in Paris. That’s because Seoul has “collateral” in the form of US troops stationed on its soil. When it comes down to it, in the event of an attack on South Korean soil, the only practical reason for Washington to act defensively and offensively is not the fate of Korea but that of its soldiers stationed at Camp Humphreys.
The same goes for an attack on Japan. It will be the fate of US soldiers and their families stationed at the American bases in Yokosuka and Okinawa that will determine whether or not Washington acts. If a Chinese or North Korean nuclear strike wipes out tens of thousands of Americans, then Washington will surely live up to its promise of a “swift, overwhelming and decisive response.” In that respect, the 28,500 US troops at Camp Humphreys are a form of collateral that guarantees the defense of Korea — collateral of blood.
As the US presidential election approaches, Trump is already hinting at the potential for a pullout of US troops. But this goes beyond simply asking Korea to cough up more in defense costs. People like Elbridge Colby are questioning the necessity of the US-South Korea alliance itself.
While it’s unlikely that this position will gain ground in the majority of Washington, who knows what will happen? A withdrawal of US troops from Korea would be an erasure of the “collateral” that guarantees Washington’s defense of Seoul. It would be a rehash of the Acheson Line that excluded Korea from the US military umbrella but included Japan. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol should lose sleep at the very thought.
Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]
10. Satellite imagery shows screen installed around important statues in Pyongyang
Yes, Kim Jong Jong Un must use scarce resources to ensure he and the regime are worshipped.
This reminded me of something I sent out a few years ago to describe revolutionary and resistance leaders. Afterall north Korea considers itself a revolutionary country (per its constitution) and Kim Jong Un himself is described as a leader of the revolution. We should consider the characteristics described below and figure out how to exploit them (as well as defend against them because those are the characteristics that could lead to miscalculation because narcissistic leaders have few or no guardrails).
Last evening in our class on “Unconventional Warfare for Policy Makers and Strategists we were discussing leadership in underground resistance movements and insurgencies. In our reading from “Human Factors Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies” was this passage on evaluating one type of leader found in underground revolutionary resistance movements (i.e., narcissism). The entire publication can be accessed at this link. http://www.soc.mil/ARIS/HumanFactorsS.pdf
I thought it would be interesting to compare this passage with the current political climate and authoritarian (and narcissistic )leaders we see around the world). And if you would like to read about the personality trait after narcissism please go to the link above (spoiler alert: it is paranoia)
P. 98-99 …. Egocentricity is a normal component in infantile development; however, as a child develops into adolescence he or she is supposed to become less self-absorbed and more cognizant of others. Narcissism is a psychoanalytic theory that holds that primary narcissism (or self-love) in the form of grandiose self does not diminish as the individual develops and expands his or her social network. If this fails to occur, regardless of reason, the grandiose self-image can result in individuals who are sociopathic, arrogant, and devoid of compassion for others. Some leaders demonstrate a marked desire for admiration and attention, a hallmark of narcissism. Their chosen methods of violence are often spectacular and attention grabbing, suggesting a more narcissistic clinical presentation. There are also those who exhibit a narcissistic leadership style although they probably do not meet the clinical criteria for an Axis II disorder. In fact, this leadership style is heavily represented in the military, industry, and academia. Characteristics of the narcissistic leadership style include a vulnerability to biased information processing that results in an overestimation of their own strength and an underestimation of their adversary’s, a grandiose and self-serving disposition, a lack of tolerance for competition, difficulty relying on experts, and a desire for sycophantic subordinates. Often displaying superficial arrogance over profound personal insecurity, they actively seek admiration, are vulnerable to insults, slights, and attacks, and are prone to rage. Key observables that indicate this style are the leader’s sensitivity to criticism, surrounding themselves with sycophants, and overvaluation of his chances of success and an underestimation of the strength of an opponent.
Satellite imagery shows screen installed around important statues in Pyongyang - Daily NK English
Workers are upgrading an automated system that lowers the statues into a protective tunnel underground during periods of crisis
By Seulkee Jang - May 17, 2024
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · May 17, 2024
Statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang. (Yonhap)
A screen has been erected around the statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il located in front of the Korean Revolution Museum, on Mansu Hill, in Pyongyang.
Daily NK’s review of satellite images taken by Maxar on May 3 found that a white screen has been set up around the statues of the North Korean founder and his son. The screen was not visible in a satellite image taken on Apr. 28 but had been installed by the time another satellite image was taken on May 3.
On Apr. 15 — the Day of the Sun, North Korea’s most important holiday celebrating the birthday of Kim Il Sung — Rodong Sinmun ran an article titled “On a Meaningful Day of the Sun,” which reported that high-ranking officials from the Workers’ Party of Korea, the government and the military including Kim Tok-hun, Choi Ryong-hae and Ri Pyong-chol had placed floral baskets before the Mansu Hill statues. The same issue of the newspaper printed a photograph of several hundred officials standing in front of the statues.
Then on Apr. 26, Rodong Sinmun reported that members of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) had laid flowers before the Mansu Hill statues to mark the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army (KPRA).
Given those reports, the statues were likely not covered with the white screen until after KPRA Foundation Day on Apr. 25.
A satellite image taken on Apr. 9, before the Day of the Sun (Apr. 15), does not show any unusual objects around the statues on Mansu Hill, while a satellite image taken on Apr. 28 shows cranes and rebars around the statues. That suggests that something happened after KPRA Foundation Day.
A satellite image taken on May 3 shows that a white screen has been erected around the statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on Mansu Hill in Pyongyang. In a satellite image taken on Apr. 28, the bronze statues looked white, while cranes were set up to the side of the statues and rebar-like objects were lying on the plaza in front of them. Satellite Imagery=WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 (©2024 Maxar, U.S.G. Plus)
“A screen was installed around the Mansu Hill statues. That took place after the celebration of the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army,” a source in Pyongyang told Daily NK on Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity.
According to the source, the Mansudae Art Studio department in charge of repairing and restoring statues of North Korean leaders is currently repairing the Mansu Hill statues after being ordered to do so by the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea in mid-April.
The statue repair work includes upgrading lightning rods, clearing away bird droppings and other debris, cleaning the statues, repairing any discoloration, polishing the plating and redoing the coating.
The repair work on the statues is being handled in shifts by a total of 80 people from the North Korean leadership statues repair and restoration department at Mansudae Art Studio, the Mansu Hill statues maintenance office, and the repair and restoration department at the Korean Revolution Museum.
“It’s not clear when the repairs and restoration of the statues will be completed. The statues are so massive that the timeframe will likely depend on how the work goes,” the source said.
The statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on Mansu Hill are 23 meters tall. They are believed to be the largest of some 40,000 statues of the father and son scattered throughout North Korea.
Apart from the Mansudae Art Studio’s restoration work on the statues, workers are also upgrading an automated system that is supposed to lower the statues into a protective tunnel underground during periods of crisis.
“An automated elevator is installed that can take the Mansu Hill statues down to an underground tunnel at the press of a button in the event of an emergency. The tunnel machinery is being replaced with modernized equipment. That work is being executed by mechanics with the Supreme Leader’s security team in charge of managing the tunnel underneath the statues,” the source said.
Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · May 17, 2024
11. How Trump could push Japan, S Korea to go nuclear
If Korea and Japan perceive a reduction in the US commitment to extended deterrence they will have to make the calculation in their self interest as to whether they should develop their own nuclear weapons. This still raises a lot of questions for time and how they will be used as a deterrent. Will they have any deterrent effect on Kim Jong Un or CHina? What will be their concept of employment to ensure deterrence? WIll they have a first use policy? etc., etc.
How Trump could push Japan, S Korea to go nuclear
Japanese and Korean foreign policy elites have good reason to fear a Trump 2.0 presidency would soften America’s commitment to their security
asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider
Will a Donald Trump return to the White House lead to a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia, beginning in South Korea and leading to Japan and even possibly to Taiwan? Of all the consequences of a Trump victory, this is the one that is least discussed openly in Tokyo. But behind closed doors, there is serious talk about this dark future.
The Japanese pronunciation of the former president’s surname is Toranpu. I recently had an extended stay in Japan, during which the number one topic raised in my conversations with Japanese policymakers was moshi-tora – “What if Trump?” – the catchphrase for pondering Japan’s fate if Trump returns to the White House.
Many dangers loomed in the minds of Japan’s foreign policy elite, including:
- a de facto surrender to Russia in the Ukraine war, emboldening China and even North Korea;
- imposition of a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, or even broader tariffs targeting Japan and Europe;
- demands that Japan, and other allies, pay massive amounts to the US to keep American forces stationed abroad.
All of those “America First” moves are perfectly plausible, even likely, given Trump’s past actions and current proclamations. Still, Japanese policymakers claimed to be confident that they could somehow manage Trump, following the model of Shinzo Abe – flatter him, pay him off and cultivate ties with his advisors.
Tora is not only a shortened version of the Trump name as it’s pronounced in Japanese, Toranpu. A homonym, also an abbreviation, gained fame when it was used in the title of the 1970 movie ‘Tora! Tora! Tora!’ That was the code used in 1941 to signal the commencement of the ‘lightning attack’ – totsugeki raigeki – on Pearl Harbor. Photo: Wikipedia
“As during the first Trump presidency, if we have a good understanding in advance with the defense and national security team without Trump, that will help,” a former senior Japanese foreign ministry official told me.
The Japanese government will move quickly to press the US on the importance of American bases in Japan, believing that Trump’s focus on a confrontation with China will depend in part on keeping the security alliance intact.
Even if he seeks to withdraw forces from Japan, he won’t withdraw all, perhaps just 30-40%, a senior foreign policy expert who advises current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in a private conversation.
Across the Tsushima Strait, South Korean officials also insist that a Trump return to power can somehow be managed without endangering the alliance on which their security depends. But there are also deep worries that Trump will move quickly to withdraw US forces based in Korea, triggered by Seoul’s failure to yield to unreachable demands for payments.
These fears were reinvigorated by the comments Trump made in a recent extended interview with Time Magazine about his plans for a second term.
“We have 40,000 troops [in South Korea], and in a somewhat precarious position,” Trump said, overstating the actual level of forces (28,500) while restating his demand that the Koreans “step up and pay.”
This is not just a gangster-like extortion of protection money. “Why would we defend somebody?” he told Time. “We’re talking about a very wealthy country.”
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in his recent press conference following his party’s defeat in the National Assembly elections, artfully avoided comment on Trump’s remarks. He expressed confidence in the ongoing strength of the alliance relationship.
But Trump’s plans for his second term regarding US forces were set long ago, during his first presidential experiment. Former Trump national security advisor John Bolton in his memoir provided detailed accounts of “Trump’s relentless desire to withdraw US military assets from the Korean Peninsula” accompanied by the former president’s unquenched thirst for – and firm belief that he could make – a grand peace deal with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
“I feared Trump’s ultimate threat – withdrawing our troops from any country not paying what he deemed to be an adequate amount – was real in South Korea’s case,” Bolton wrote after leaving office.
Former Trump Defense Secretary Mark Esper offers his own account of his repeated, and partially successful, efforts to block Trump from withdrawing troops. As he wrote:
“I became very uneasy when Trump talked about the need to pull all US forces completely out of Korea,” Esper wrote.
The former defense secretary recounted how he and then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggested to Trump that he make that a second-term priority.
“This placated him,” Esper wrote. “Trump responded with ‘Yeah, yeah, second term,’ as a Cheshire Cat smile came across his face.”
Former Trump defense official Eldridge Colby, widely considered a candidate for a senior position in a second administration, has been giving interviews making it clear that this game plan still is intact.
Colby told the Yonhap news agency in an interview published on May 7 that the US had to give priority to confronting China and that North Korea was primarily a problem for South Korea to deal with.
Elbridge Colby. Photo: Screenshot / Facebook
“South Korea is going to have to take primary, essentially overwhelming responsibility for its own self-defense against North Korea because we don’t have a military that can fight North Korea and then be ready to fight China,” Colby said.
“The fundamental fact is that North Korea is not a primary threat to the US. It would not be rational to lose multiple American cities to just deal with North Korea. That’s a different calculation for South Korea.”
Colby, echoing remarks made previously by Trump, indicated that the US should accept, if not support, the nuclear option for South Korea, especially since the US would no longer offer its nuclear umbrella.
“It would be self-defeating and foolish for us to simultaneously not provide South Korea with a viable defense umbrella and then threaten to sanction it when it decides with us to take measures that provide for security in the face of a tremendous nuclear buildup by North Korea and China,” he told Yonhap.
What will South Korea do if Trump follows through on his plans? The answer is now provided in an important study just published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
Entitled “Breaking Bad: South Korea’s Nuclear Option,” and authored by a former national security official and distinguished Korea expert Victor Cha, the study is based on a detailed poll of over 1,000 strategic elites in South Korea, conducted between January and March of this year.
On the good news side, the poll offers a clear refutation of the rather superficial idea, based on somewhat faulty polling, that more than two-thirds of Koreans favor the nuclear option.
As the study shows, those polls ask a simple question, yes or no, about support for the nuclear option. The polls never ask if Koreans would support such a path if it meant endangering the alliance with the US or would lead to South Korea’s international condemnation.
Cha’s poll goes further with elites who are better informed about the consequences of going nuclear and finds that two-thirds do not favor nuclearization, mainly because of the potential international reaction and damage to the US alliance. The opposition to the nuclear option is non-partisan, embraced by both conservative and progressive elites.
There was a very different response, however, when the poll asked elites about how they would respond to a return to the America First policy – a shift in which the US would denigrate its allies and decouple, specifically withdrawing American ground troops.
In that case, more than half of those who favored the non-nuclear option would now support nuclear weapons development. They would favor an autonomous nuclear capability over the option of sharing nuclear weapons with the US, by a two-to-one margin.
“Any way you look at it, if Trump wins and he is decoupling, you are going to get this huge shift in elite opinion to go nuclear, and a public already in that camp,” Cha told this writer. “It means it could happen very quickly. You wouldn’t have to have a national discussion and build public opinion.”
There is a historical parallel to the present moment. In the early 1970s, in response to the US withdrawal of one of two infantry divisions from South Korea and the defeat in the Vietnam War, the South Korean government of Park Chung-hee ordered a secret program to develop nuclear weapons.
President Gerald R. Ford and South Korean “President for Life” Park Chung-hee at the arrival ceremony for Ford in Seoul on November 22, 1974. Before Ford’s visit, US intelligence had been learning about South Korea’s secret nuclear program. Photo: Gerald R Ford Library
It was uncovered by American intelligence, though policymakers in Washington were initially skeptical about how serious it might be. In the end, only tough American pressure, including blocking the sale of French and Canadian nuclear technology, halted the program.
What would it mean for Japan if South Korea went nuclear? Every Japanese foreign policy maker that this writer spoke to rejected, rather emphatically, the idea that Japan would or could develop nuclear weapons as a response to Trump’s return to power.
A senior figure at the conservative daily newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun did not hesitate to reject the nuclear option, regarding it as not only politically impossible but antithetical to postwar Japanese policy.
But that conviction weakened when asked about how Japan might respond if South Korea headed down that road. “If South Korea has nuclear weapons, Japan will surely have them,” the prime minister’s advisor, who had recently returned from a visit to Korea, told me.
Another senior foreign policy maker, who has served as an advisor to both Abe and Kishida, as well as to the Democratic Party of Japan, went even further. Japan, he told me in a private conversation, should develop nuclear weapons in a joint program with South Korea.
Given the two countries’ history, that is a radical idea, if not a politically impossible option. However, as he pointed out, it does have both strategic and technical logic. Both Japan and South Korea will face even more immediate threats from China, North Korea and Russia in a second Trump administration, and will no longer be able to rely on the US for extended deterrence.
Technically, while South Korea can move faster politically, Japan has the fissile material already in storage – the plutonium stockpile from reprocessed spent fuel – as well as a potential long-range delivery system in its H-2 and H-3 rockets.
“We have to face the sheer reality of who is leading the US,” the former senior Foreign Ministry official concluded. “We cannot change that.”
asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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