Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners
 
 

Quotes of the Day:


“The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.”
– Selwyn Duke



“All the brains in the world are powerless against the sort of stupidity that is in fashion.”
– Jean de La Fontaine

"Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited, whereas imagination embraces the entire world, stimulating progress, giving birth to evolution.”
– Albert Einstein




1. N. Korea in 'strongest strategic position' in decades: U.S. intel report

2. Foreign ministry voices concerns over China's establishment of no-sail zone in overlapping waters

3. DP's Lee leads PPP's Kim 46.6 pct to 37.6 pct: poll

4. PPP's Kim meets with ex-President Park, asks for support ahead of election

5. North Korea’s Black Knights and Dark Network

6. Trump should reorient US policy toward stable coexistence with North Korea

7. S intelligence warns North Korea in ‘strongest strategic position in decades’

8. North Korea launches probe into warship accident as officials face scrutiny

9. N. Korea's naval mishap reveals both ambition and limitations

10. N. Korea's west coast wheat and barley crops face severe stunting crisis

11. U.S. plans troop cut, challenges await South Korea

12. Presidential race tightens as conservatives close gap on frontrunner Lee Jae-myung

13. Four candidates clash over how to address aging society, trade blows over political stances

14. RFA's investigative report on North Korean workers in Senegal wins New York Festivals Silver Medal

15. North Korea’s crude oil supply temporarily stabilizes… Is it because of Russian troops dispatched?

16. Optimizing U.S. and Allied Forces for Deterrence and Defense Throughout Indo-Pacom: From Korea to Australia and Everywhere in Between




1. N. Korea in 'strongest strategic position' in decades: U.S. intel report


We examined this report in March​ when it was released. Some news organizations recently reprised it so there is new reporting on it.


One of the key aspects of the report is the section on "Adversarial Cooperation."  We must understand and address this threat by taking a holistic view of these multiple threet that are collaborating and colluding.


ADVERSARIAL COOPERATION 
Cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea has been growing more rapidly in recent years, reinforcing threats from each of them individually while also posing new challenges to U.S. strength and power globally. These primarily bilateral relationships, largely in security and defense fields, have strengthened their individual and collective capabilities to threaten and harm the United States, as well as improved their resilience against U.S. and Western efforts to constrain or deter their activities. Russia’s war in Ukraine has accelerated these ties, but the trend is likely to continue regardless of the war’s outcome. This alignment increases the chances of U.S. tensions or conflict with any one of these adversaries drawing in another. China is critical to this alignment and its global significance, given the PRC’s particularly ambitious goals, and powerful capabilities and influence in the world. (Page 29)
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf




N. Korea in 'strongest strategic position' in decades: U.S. intel report | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 24, 2025

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, May 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea stands in its "strongest strategic position" in decades, a U.S. intelligence report showed Friday, as the recalcitrant regime has been doubling down on its pursuit of advanced weapons that can threaten U.S. forces and allies in Northeast Asia, and the U.S. mainland.

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) under the U.S. Department of Defense offered the analysis in the "2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment" that covered a wide range of security challenges from North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, and other state and non-state actors.

The assessment came amid deepening concerns over North Korea's evolving nuclear and ballistic missile threats and its military alignment with Russia based on the two countries' "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty signed in June last year.

"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is increasingly confident in his international political legitimacy and regime security," the DIA said in the report.

"North Korea is in its strongest strategic position in decades, possessing the military means to hold at risk U.S. forces and U.S. allies in Northeast Asia while continuing to improve its capability to threaten the U.S. homeland," it added.

The report noted that in return for support for its war against Ukraine, Russia has been expanding its sharing of space, nuclear and missile applicable technology, expertise and materials to North Korea, China and Iran, which it said will enable advancements in the three countries' weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs during the "next three to five years."

"North Korea continues to illicitly procure items for its missile program that it cannot produce domestically, often in cooperation with Chinese and Russian nationals," the agency said.

"Similarly, North Korea almost certainly will continue marketing and proliferating ballistic missile systems and related technology to other countries of concern, as demonstrated by its provision of missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine."


This file photo, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 31, 2024, shows the North staging a drill to launch the Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missile off its west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The agency pointed out that Pyongyang continues to support its nuclear weapons program and increase its nuclear weapons stockpile by producing plutonium and highly enriched uranium.

"North Korea has restored its nuclear test site and is now postured to conduct a seventh nuclear test at a time of its choosing," it said.

The DIA assessed that Pyongyang "probably" has a biological warfare program and "almost certainly" has a chemical warfare program with the capability to produce nerve, blister, blood and choking agents.

It described the North's Special Operations Force (SOF) as "highly trained," "well equipped" and capable of infiltrating into South Korea.

"North Korea's SOF deployment to Russia will enable North Korea to use lessons learned from that experience for future combat training," it said.

Portraying the North as one of the world's most militarized nations, the agency said the reclusive country has more than 1 million active duty personnel and more than 7 million reserve and paramilitary personnel.


North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) visits a flight group under the Guards 1st Air Division of the Korean People's Army on May 15, 2025, to inspect anti-air combat and air raid drills, in this file photo released by the Korean Central News Agency two days later. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

On the space front, the agency assessed that the North's ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles (SLVs) could be used as a "very basic" anti-satellite platform to target U.S. and partner satellites in a conflict.

"Additionally, North Korea has received an offer from Russia to assist its space program, including SLVs, satellites and training," it said.

The report also delved into growing cooperation among America's competitors and potential adversaries, including collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang.

"North Korea almost certainly is receiving reciprocal military cooperation from Moscow -- including SA-22 surface-to-air missile systems and electronic warfare equipment -- for providing soldiers and materiel to support Russia's war against Ukraine," it said.

The DIA forecast that leaders in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang will strengthen their nations' ties in their drive to undermine the influence of the U.S. and its allies.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 24, 2025




2. Foreign ministry voices concerns over China's establishment of no-sail zone in overlapping waters


​China is a threat to South Korea.



Foreign ministry voices concerns over China's establishment of no-sail zone in overlapping waters | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · May 24, 2025

SEOUL, May 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has expressed concerns to China over its designation of a "no-sail zone" in overlapping waters in the Yellow Sea, the foreign ministry said Saturday.

In a text message to reporters, an official at the ministry cited the Joint Chiefs of Staff and explained that both countries are allowed to conduct military drills in the Provisional Maritime Zone (PMZ), an area where the exclusive economic zones of the two countries overlap.

"However, China's establishment of a no-sail zone within the PMZ that excessively restricts freedom of navigation raises concerns," the official added, emphasizing that such concerns have been conveyed to Beijing through diplomatic channels.

The ministry said it is closely coordinating with the defense ministry and other relevant agencies to determine whether China's action is consistent with international maritime law.

"The government will continue to actively respond in close cooperation with related ministries to ensure that our legitimate rights and interests are not violated," he said.

Earlier this week, U.S. magazine Newsweek reported that the Chinese government declared a no-sail zone in the disputed waters of the Yellow Sea, following its unilateral installation of steel structures on the western side of the PMZ.


This file photo, released by Rep. Um Tae-young of the People Power Party on April 24, 2025, shows a structure unilaterally installed by China in 2024 in the Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · May 24, 2025



3. DP's Lee leads PPP's Kim 46.6 pct to 37.6 pct: poll


DP's Lee leads PPP's Kim 46.6 pct to 37.6 pct: poll | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · May 24, 2025

SEOUL, May 24 (Yonhap) -- Democratic Party (DP) presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung maintained a big lead among contenders for the June 3 election, a survey showed Saturday.

In a Realmeter survey conducted on 1,009 adults from Thursday to Friday, Lee led the poll with 46.6 percent, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous poll.

Support for his People Power Party (PPP) rival Kim Moon-soo also dropped 1 percentage point to 37.6 percent, while Lee Jun-seok of the minor New Reform Party came in third with 10.4 percent, up 1 percentage point.

In a hypothetical two-way contest, the DP's Lee garnered 51.1 percent, trailed by Kim with 43.9 percent. In a similar scenario against Lee Jun-seok, Lee Jae-myung led with 48.9 percent versus 37 percent for the New Reform Party candidate.

The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.


This combined file photo taken May 16, 2025, shows the presidential candidates of South Korea's major political parties -- (from L to R) Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party, Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the minor conservative New Reform Party -- making stump speeches in the southwestern city of Iksan; Suwon, near Seoul; and the central city of Cheonan, respectively, ahead of the June 3 presidential election. (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · May 24, 2025



4. PPP's Kim meets with ex-President Park, asks for support ahead of election


Help or hurt?

(2nd LD) PPP's Kim meets with ex-President Park, asks for support ahead of election | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · May 24, 2025

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead as meeting takes place; ADDS more info in paras 2-5, new photo)

SEOUL, May 24 (Yonhap) -- People Power Party (PPP) presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo paid a courtesy visit to former President Park Geun-hye on Saturday and asked for her support for the upcoming presidential election, officials said.

Kim met Park at her residence in the southeastern city of Daegu while campaigning in the region, which is a PPP stronghold.

It was Kim's first meeting with Park since he secured the nomination earlier this month.

During the meeting, Park emphasized the importance of "putting the past behind and uniting as one to win the election, despite the many challenges the party has faced," PPP spokesperson Shin Dong-wook told reporters.

Kim responded that, though the party primaries were tough, he is now fully focused on working hard to win the election and expressed hope for Park's support.


People Power Party (PPP) presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo (L) holds hands with former President Park Geun-hye ahead of their meeting at Park's residence in the southeastern city of Daegu on May 24, 2025, in this photo provided by his party. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Prior to the meeting, Kim visited the birthplace of Park's father, former President Park Chung-hee, in Gumi, about 200 kilometers southeast of Seoul.

"Former President Park Chung-hee laid the foundation for the prosperity we enjoy today," Kim said.

He also emphasized that the honor of former President Park Geun-hye "must be fully restored," noting her removal from office in 2017 over a corruption and influence-peddling scandal.

While campaigning in the region, Kim bowed to the public and apologized for "the many shortcomings of both myself and our party," referencing such issues as the imposition of martial law and economic hardship under former President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Yoon was impeached last month for declaring martial law in December, an act that ultimately led to the upcoming presidential election on June 3.


Kim Moon-soo (C), the presidential candidate of the conservative People Power Party, bows deeply to voters during a campaign stop at a park in the southeastern city of Andong on May 24, 2025, ahead of the June 3 presidential election. (Yonhap)


Kim Moon-soo (R, front), the presidential candidate of the conservative People Power Party, visits the birthplace of former President Park Chung-hee, in the southeastern city of Gumi on May 24, 2025. (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · May 24, 2025


5. North Korea’s Black Knights and Dark Network


​This is for the hard core expert researchers. The 191 page report can be downloaded at this link:  https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3400/RRA3413-1/RAND_RRA3413-1.pdf


North Korea’s Black Knights and Dark Network

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3413-1.html

Towards the Disruption and Typology of DPRK Sanctions Evasion Networks

King Mallory, Jesse Geneson, Alvin Moon, Nicolas M. Robles, James Syme, Weian Andrew Xie

ResearchPublished May 1, 2025



In this report, RAND researchers examine the utility of complex network analytical techniques in improving the targeting and disruption of sanctions evasion networks, using North Korea as a case study. They provide a comprehensive, empirically based picture of the entire North Korean sanctions evasion network and suggest ways to strengthen sanctions on North Korea and other future international sanctions regimes.

Note: Researchers published code developed during this project to GitHub:


6. Trump should reorient US policy toward stable coexistence with North Korea


​I of course agree with my good friend Frank Aum that our denuclearization efforts have failed and we need a new strategy. But we disagree on the way forward. I do not think peaceful co-existence is possible. Seeking peaceful co-existence is a win for Kim's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies, which will cause him to double down on them while he continues to seek the conditions that will allow him to dominate the entire peninsula. I think the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (U-ROK)



Trump should reorient US policy toward stable coexistence with North Korea

The status quo of denuclearization through pressure has failed to cow Pyongyang, whose nukes now pose unacceptable risks

https://www.nknews.org/2025/05/trump-should-reorient-us-policy-toward-stable-coexistence-with-north-korea/

Frank Aum May 21, 2025


Images: Trump White House, ROK military and KCNA, edited by NK News

Editor’s note: The following article is an opinion piece by Frank Aum, formerly the senior expert on Northeast Asia at the United States Institute of Peace. Views expressed in opinion articles are exclusively the author’s own and do not represent those of NK News.

The U.S. has reached a critical juncture in how it deals with North Korea. The current approach — focused on using pressure and deterrence to change Pyongyang’s behavior — has not only failed but has also made the situation more dangerous. 

In a new report published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, my colleague Ankit Panda and I argue that Washington must now pursue a fundamentally different strategy: one centered on stable coexistence with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

Far from compromising U.S. security, this approach would address the unacceptable risks of the status quo by emphasizing improved relations with the DPRK, while reducing deterrence and defense requirements for the Korean Peninsula.

THE FAILURE OF ‘DENUCLEARIZATION THROUGH PRESSURE’

Over the last 15 years, U.S. policy has operated under the assumption that North Korea could be coerced into giving up its nuclear weapons through a mix of isolation and sanctions, or at least contained through deterrence. The theory was that Pyongyang would eventually cave to diplomatic, military and economic pressure. 

But this theory has proven misguided. Rather than being cowed, North Korea has responded with defiance and initiative — developing increasingly sophisticated weapons, strengthening its alliances with malign actors and withdrawing further from international norms. Periods of U.S.-led pressure campaigns against North Korea (2012-2018; 2022-present) strongly correlate with dramatic increases in DPRK ballistic missile tests.

The U.S. now faces a “dangerous coexistence” with North Korea. Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal — estimated to contain enough fissile material for up to 90 nuclear weapons — is paired with an aggressive nuclear doctrine that favors preemptive use. Moreover, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that Pyongyang will not relinquish its nuclear arsenal. 

Despite this, U.S. policy still clings to the unattainable goal of denuclearization, creating a contradiction between strategic analysis and diplomatic objectives. This disconnect fosters policy incoherence and heightens the risk of miscalculation and conflict. 

With the absence of any communication or crisis management mechanisms between Washington and Pyongyang since 2019, the risk of a conventional conflict escalating into nuclear war is unacceptably high. Meanwhile, North Korea has forged stronger ties with Russia, sending troops and weapons to support the war in Ukraine. 

These developments underscore that North Korea is no longer just a regional threat; it is a destabilizing global actor.

Engagement with North Korea, on the other hand, has shown better results. Periods of active diplomacy, such as during the 1990s Agreed Framework era, the 2011-2012 Leap Day deal negotiations or the 2018-2019 Trump-Kim dialogue, corresponded with significantly lower levels of provocative North Korean behavior.

When the U.S. engaged North Korea, both sides were able to reduce tensions, achieve mutual gains and open space for further dialogue — even if these benefits could not be sustained in the long-run due to political short-sightedness.

Kim Jong Un inspects a tactical nuclear warhead in 2023. | Image: KCTV

WHY STABLE COEXISTENCE?

Given these realities, the U.S. must embrace stable coexistence as its new guiding principle. This approach does not mean legitimizing or accepting North Korea’s nuclear status in formal terms, nor does it abandon the long-term goal of denuclearization. 

Rather, it prioritizes near-term risk reduction, conflict prevention and improved bilateral relations. 

Stable coexistence is pragmatic. It aligns U.S. strategy with the empirical reality that North Korea is not giving up its weapons soon, and it offers a path to de-escalate tensions without undermining our alliances or deterrence posture. 

Perhaps most important at the moment, a stable coexistence strategy is consistent with President Trump’s stated intention to “get along” with and “have relations with” North Korea.

The new policy would be grounded in several core principles:

  • Risk reduction: The U.S. must take proactive steps to reduce military tensions and the likelihood of war on the Korean Peninsula.
  • Diplomatic engagement: Improved relations and sustained communication at multiple levels — military, governmental and civil society — can help lower tensions and open the door to gradual progress and trust-building.
  • Alliance coordination: U.S. strategy must be fully coordinated with South Korea and Japan, ensuring strategic alignment and a coordinated defense posture even amid policy shifts.
  • Deemphasizing denuclearization: While still a long-term aspiration, denuclearization should no longer be the main metric of success in North Korea policy. Prioritizing it has consistently backfired.

CONCRETE STEPS

The U.S. would implement the new framework in phases, starting with unilateral confidence-building measures. 

These could include reaching out directly to Kim Jong Un to resume summit diplomacy, suspending U.S. strategic asset deployments to the Korean Peninsula, reducing the scale and scope of joint military exercises with South Korea, announcing an end to the Korean War through a political declaration, and lifting the U.S. ban on travel to North Korea.

Critically, these actions would not compromise U.S. or allied security. Rather, they serve as diplomatic signals that invite reciprocity from Pyongyang — something North Korea has historically responded to when offered in good faith.

The U.S. must also manage the nuclear deterrence relationship with the DPRK more responsibly. 

Just as it does with Russia and China, the U.S. could pursue:

  • a moratorium on left-of-launch cyber operations that threaten North Korea’s command and control, potentially triggering early nuclear use;
  • greater ambiguity in declaratory policy about potential U.S. actions against North Korea, which are provocative and may be hard to realize; and
  • a freeze on missile defense expansions that can exacerbate costly arms-racing.

These measures reflect mature deterrence thinking — not weakness.

The USS Boxer visits Busan | Image: ROK navy (Aug. 28, 2024)

REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

A shift toward stable coexistence would also serve broader U.S. geopolitical interests. It could mitigate North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia and reduce the demands on U.S. military resources in the Indo-Pacific — freeing up assets for competition with China. 

Domestically, it would create a more sustainable policy framework amid budgetary and political constraints.

South Korea’s stance will be pivotal. While Seoul has often been aligned with U.S. thinking on North Korea, its policies fluctuate with political leadership. The U.S. must encourage a bipartisan and enduring commitment to stable coexistence in both Washington and Seoul. 

Furthermore, maintaining South Korea’s commitment to nonproliferation requires demonstrating that engagement — not escalation — is the best path to security. Historical trends show that reduced tensions coincide with lower South Korean public support for indigenous nuclear armament.

It’s time to confront the truth: North Korea is a nuclear state, and continued reliance on pressure and deterrence alone only deepens the crisis. A policy rooted in stable coexistence offers a path forward that is both realistic and aligned with American interests.



7. US intelligence warns North Korea in ‘strongest strategic position in decades’


​I guess it took some time for some news organizations to get around to reading this report. But the report is useful and important because it provides a baseline for reporting. I think we should applaud the US intelligence community for providing an unclassified version that we can all refer to.




US intelligence warns North Korea in ‘strongest strategic position in decades’

New Defense Intelligence Agency report highlights expanding missile arsenal, WMD programs and deepening Russia ties

https://www.nknews.org/2025/05/us-intelligence-warns-north-korea-in-strongest-strategic-position-in-decades/

Shreyas Reddy May 23, 2025


North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects a nuclear warhead that can fit onto short-range missiles | Image: Rodong Sinmun (March 28, 2023)

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has issued a stark new assessment warning that North Korea is in its “strongest strategic position in decades,” with leader Kim Jong Un displaying growing confidence in his regime’s international legitimacy and security.

In its “2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment” report presented to the House of Representatives’ Armed Services Subcommittee on May 11 and published online this week, the DIA assessed that the DPRK now possesses military capabilities that can “hold at risk U.S. forces and U.S. allies in Northeast Asia” while posing a growing threat to the American homeland.

The report’s dire warning about this escalating threat builds on the agency’s report last year that warned of Pyongyang “maturing the capability to threaten the U.S. homeland with increasingly sophisticated weapons,” underscoring North Korea’s ongoing military evolution.

The DIA’s assessment that the DPRK poses a bigger threat than ever stands in stark contrast to Washington’s apparent deprioritization of North Korean security issues in recent months, with President Donald Trump’s administration seemingly focusing on countering China while leaving other global threats to U.S. allies.

However, the new report suggests some parts of the U.S. intelligence apparatus remain wary of North Korea’s accelerating military development since the failed Hanoi Summit between Trump and Kim in 2019.

At the core of this growing threat is an expanding arsenal of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and cruise missiles under the command of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Strategic Force, including the Hwasong-19 — Pyongyang’s largest-ever solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile — tested last year.

North Korea has also bolstered its short-range threats and conducted its “largest-ever salvo launch” last year by simultaneously firing 18 short-range ballistic missiles, the DIA added.

“These efforts signal continued progress toward North Korea’s stated defense modernization goal of improving its deterrence threat against the United States,” the report stated. “To this goal, North Korea has developed new ballistic missile systems intended to enable strikes against U.S. targets in the region and the continental United States.”

To support its sanctioned missile program, North Korea continues to “illicitly procure” items that it cannot produce domestically, often in cooperation with Chinese and Russian nationals, according to the DIA. The report added that Pyongyang will also continue selling ballistic missiles and related technology to other countries, as evidenced by its weapons supplies to Russia.

The agency also warned that North Korea continues to advance its weapons of mass destruction program and increase its nuclear stockpile by producing plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and stands ready to carry out its seventh nuclear test at any time after restoring its test site at Punggye-ri.

This escalating nuclear development aligns with Kim’s 2021 pledge prioritizing the development of tactical nuclear weapons, ranging from “smaller and lighter nuclear weapons” to “ultra-large nuclear warheads,” that can strike adversaries in different parts of the world.

The Hwasong-19, North Korea’s largest-ever solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile | Image: KCNA (Nov. 1, 2024)

MULTI-DOMAIN WARFARE

Alongside strengthening capabilities allowing North Korea to mount “a prolonged defense” of its territory, the regime also continues its biological warfare programs and almost certainly possesses chemical weapons “with the capability to produce nerve, blister, blood and choking agents,” according to the DIA.

In addition, the DPRK has made significant progress in advancing its asymmetric warfare capabilities in space and cyberspace.

The DIA highlighted North Korea’s successful launch of a domestically produced satellite launch vehicle (SLV) in Nov. 2023, which succeeded in putting the country’s first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit. 

However, the report did not directly mention two previous failures in 2023 or the catastrophic first-stage SLV explosion during a subsequent launch last May, when Pyongyang attempted to switch to an alternate fuel system that appeared similar to what Russian rockets use.

Pointing to Pyongyang’s threats to destroy American spy satellites if the U.S. “tries to violate the legitimate territory” of its satellite program, the DIA suggested North Korea may use ballistic missiles and SLVs as a “very basic anti-satellite platform” to target U.S. and partner satellites in a conflict.

The report also warned of the threat posed by Pyongyang’s advancing offensive cyber operations as it ramps up criminal activities such as cryptocurrency theft, ransomware, cyberespionage and “hacking-for-hire,” although the last of these is not a tactic typically associated with North Korean cybercriminals.

To enhance their operations, North Korean threat actors also collaborate with foreign criminals to advance Pyongyang’s cyber-related objectives, the DIA added. 

Meanwhile, the country also boasts a formidable military with more than 1 million active duty personnel and more than 7 million reserve and paramilitary personnel, according to the DIA. In particular, the KPA Special Operations Force presents a potent threat and is “capable of infiltrating into South Korea.”

However, the agency added that the cash-strapped country’s lack of resources has slowed efforts to upgrade their outdated conventional forces, exacerbated by a “poorly constructed industrial system and infrastructure deteriorating.” 

To improve its military capabilities, North Korea is increasingly turning to Russia and other countries looking to “undermine the influence of the United States and its allies,” according to the DIA.

The report stated that North Korea’s deployment of special forces troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine will allow the KPA to learn lessons about modern warfare and use that experience for future combat training, 

In return, Pyongyang is almost certainly receiving reciprocal military support from Moscow in the form of weapons such as SA-22 surface-to-air missile systems and electronic warfare equipment, the DIA stated. The agency also highlighted Russia’s offer to assist North Korea with its space program, including SLV and satellite development and training.

The report largely focused on the growing DPRK-Russia cooperation, but also noted that China will continue to block U.S.-led efforts to sanction Pyongyang, while harboring strong security concerns of its own regarding its nuclear neighbor.

Edited by Alannah Hill



8. North Korea launches probe into warship accident as officials face scrutiny


​Heads. Will. Roll.



North Korea launches probe into warship accident as officials face scrutiny

State media confirms damage, flooding to destroyer after failed launch as shipyard manager is summoned for investigation

https://www.nknews.org/2025/05/north-korea-launches-probe-into-warship-accident-as-officials-face-scrutiny/

Shreyas Reddy May 23, 2025


A 5,000-ton-class North Korean warship at Nampho in April and the aftermath of the failed launch on May 21 | Images: KCNA (April 26, 2025) and Planet Labs (May 23, 2025), edited by NK News

North Korea has launched an investigation into the “serious accident” that derailed the launch of a new warship this week, according to state media, signaling a likely effort to scapegoat lower-level officials in response to Kim Jong Un’s fury over the high-profile failure. 

The accident investigation group comprising “a public prosecutors organ and relevant experts” began a full-scale investigation into the accident that took place during the launch ceremony at Chongjin Shipyard on Wednesday, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Friday.

The team reportedly conducted underwater and internal inspections and concluded that there were no holes at the bottom of the naval destroyer, but it found that the starboard (right-hand side) of the hull was scratched and “a certain amount of seawater” had flowed into the vessel’s stern section.

According to KCNA, the experts assessed that it may take two or three days to rebalance the warship by pumping seawater from the flooded chamber and detaching the bow from the slipway used to move the vessel to the water, and roughly 10 days to restore the warship’s damaged side.

The report did not touch upon possible issues with the use of a side-launch method off Chongjin Shipyard’s pier, a technique the DPRK is not known to have used for warships previously.

The investigation comes after the botched launch of the new 5,000-ton-class destroyer at the eastern port of Chongjin, with state media initially reporting that the ship’s hull was damaged when the stern launching ramp “detached prematurely and ran aground.”

In its report on Thursday, the party-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun blamed “inexperienced command and operational carelessness during the launch” for the “grave” accident. The North Korean leader condemned the failed launch, which he was present for, as a “criminal act” that must be punished.

Based on the investigators’ report, the ruling party’s Central Military Commission (CMC) assessed that the destroyer did not suffer severe damage and will not lead to “economic loss,” but stressed that the accident must be treated as a “serious matter” to uncover the causes and hold those responsible to account.

“No matter how good the state of the warship is, the fact that the accident is an unpardonable criminal act remains unchanged, and those responsible for it can never evade their responsibility for the crime,” the commission said.

The CMC reportedly instructed the investigation group to uncover the accident’s cause in order to “deal a telling blow to incautiousness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricist attitude” that led to the high-profile failure.

Law enforcement authorities have since started “restraining and investigating those who are clearly responsible for the accident,” according to KCNA, and summoned Chongjin Shipyard’s manager Hong Kil Ho on Thursday.

State media’s explicit identification of Hong as a subject of the investigation suggests that he may be used as a scapegoat for the failure that angered the leader, while shifting blame away from the DPRK’s top leadership.

Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University and director of Korea Risk Group, previously told NK News that the very public reporting of the accident and Kim’s displeasure signaled harsh consequences for those deemed responsible.

“It probably means North Korea is going to lose some of its best naval engineers,” he said.

The failed launch would have been particularly embarrassing for Kim as he has pursued an ambitious modernization of North Korea’s antiquated navy in recent years. Following the accident he ordered officials and engineers to restore the warship before a ruling party plenum in late June.


The damaged warship and part of Chongjin Shipyard’s dock covered in blue tarpaulin on May 23 | Image: Planet Labs (May 23, 2025), edited by NK News

1

2

Since Thursday, satellite images have shown the vessel lying in the water on its side while still partially connected to the shipyard’s quay. The ship appears to be covered in several blue tarpaulin sheets, while numerous small boats swarm around it to carry out repairs in line with the leader’s directive.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor at Tokyo International University’s Institute for International Strategy, told NK News the tarpaulin’s use is likely aimed at preventing outsiders from obtaining sensitive information.

“Much of it is to cover details that could give away specs of the ship and equipment installed, such as what the ship is capable of and also any hints that could be used to detect and track it,” he said.

He added that satellite images show the tarpaulin extending beyond the ship, suggesting North Korean authorities may also be trying to cover up operations and equipment along the dock.

Anton Sokolin contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Alannah Hill



9. N. Korea's naval mishap reveals both ambition and limitations


​A good description. Kim's ambitions are greater than his abilities.  


We should exploit that in our information campaign (if we had one).



N. Korea's naval mishap reveals both ambition and limitations - Daily NK English

Troubling for regional security is what this destroyer program represents in North Korea's broader strategic calculus

By English Language Editor -

May 23, 2025

dailynk.com · by English Language Editor · May 23, 2025

North Korea’s public acknowledgment of a catastrophic destroyer launch failure this week offers a rare glimpse into both the regime’s naval ambitions and its technological limitations. When Kim Jong Un’s second 5,000-ton destroyer became unbalanced and punctured during its launch at Chongjin port, the regime made an unusual decision to broadcast the embarrassing setback rather than bury it in secrecy. This transparency, however reluctant, signals that Kim views naval modernization as such a critical priority that even public failures cannot derail the broader narrative of military advancement.

The incident itself speaks to deeper structural problems within North Korea’s defense industrial complex. Kim’s harsh criticism of officials for “absolute carelessness” and “unscientific empiricism” suggests systemic issues beyond a simple mechanical malfunction. The rushed timeline and workers’ apparent unfamiliarity with large warship construction point to a military-industrial sector struggling to match its leader’s ambitious timeline with actual technical capabilities. This gap between aspiration and execution has plagued North Korean weapons programs for decades, though recent Russian assistance appears to be narrowing it.

More troubling for regional security is what this destroyer program represents in North Korea’s broader strategic calculus. These vessels, designed to carry nuclear-capable missiles, fundamentally alter the peninsula’s naval balance and extend Pyongyang’s strike capabilities far beyond traditional boundaries. Even accounting for construction setbacks, North Korea’s willingness to invest heavily in blue-water naval capabilities demonstrates Kim’s determination to project power beyond the Korean Peninsula and challenge U.S. military dominance in Northeast Asian waters.

The timing of this naval push, coinciding with deepening North Korea-Russia military cooperation and escalating regional tensions, demands serious attention from policymakers in Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo. While the destroyer’s dramatic launch failure provides momentary satisfaction to critics of Kim’s military buildup, the underlying trajectory remains unchanged. North Korea’s naval modernization program, setbacks notwithstanding, represents a long-term strategic challenge that will require sustained international coordination to address effectively.

dailynk.com · by English Language Editor · May 23, 2025


10. N. Korea's west coast wheat and barley crops face severe stunting crisis



​Failure of the Kim family regime's agriculture and economic policies due to prioritization of procuring advanced military capabilities, to include nuclear weapons and missiles over the welfare of the people.


N. Korea's west coast wheat and barley crops face severe stunting crisis - Daily NK English

To boost wheat and barley production, authorities need to develop improved varieties and provide access to trenchless subsurface drainage technology and other advanced techniques

By Jo Hyon, PhD, Kyungnam University - May 23, 2025

dailynk.com · by Jo Hyon, PhD, Kyungnam University · May 23, 2025

In this photo published in May 2022, North Korean farm workers are seen watering a field. (Rodong Sinmun - News1)

Wheat and barley crops growing on North Korea’s west coast are severely stunted.

A source in South Pyongan province told Daily NK that winter wheat and barley crops in South Pyongan, North Pyongan, South Hwanghae and North Hwanghae provinces were discussed at a recent Cabinet Agricultural Commission meeting. Officials warned during the meeting that farms would struggle to meet this year’s production targets.

The stunted growth stems from delayed planting last year and unusually cold weather in February.

Farms practicing double-cropping—planting rice and corn in spring and wheat and barley in fall—must complete their wheat and barley work by November 20 at the latest. However, after a late harvest in October and November, west coast resources were tied up in threshing operations, preventing many farms from planting wheat and barley seeds until December.

Three months later, farms in South Pyongan’s Pyongwon, Sukchon, Mundok and Kaechon counties, as well as North Hwanghae’s Sariwon, Pongsan and Sohung counties, should be green with flourishing wheat plants at this time of year. Instead, these farms look as barren as desert.

“Since most workers and all the oxen and farming equipment were tied up with threshing, we barely managed to get to sowing until December. Poor weather has slowed growth, and we’re worried we won’t meet the schedule for this year’s rice transplanting,” said one local farmer.

The four west coast provinces account for 70% of North Korea’s wheat and barley cultivation. Average February temperatures in the two breadbasket regions were 1.5 and 0.7 degrees Celsius respectively—nearly five degrees lower than the previous year’s 6.4 and 4.6 degrees.

Wheat plants typically form tillers in mid-February as winter ends and the ground thaws. This year’s tillering was hampered by the unusually low temperatures.

Compared to wheat planted at the normal time (early, mid- or late November), wheat and barley planted late in December have essentially failed to form any tillers.

“Last year’s wheat crop was poor due to unusually high temperatures, and we’re already worried this year’s harvest will be meager as well,” said a local farm manager.

What options exist to overcome these challenges?

First, the Workers’ Party of Korea and its agricultural bureaucrats must stop interfering with farming schedules and grant farms greater autonomy.

If farmers are forced to harvest wheat and barley early to comply with rice transplanting schedules demanded by authorities, both the quantity and quality of wheat and barley will suffer.

The regime currently forces farms to stick to rigid rice transplanting schedules. Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach, crops should be allowed to mature according to regional conditions, even if this takes longer than expected.

To boost wheat and barley production, authorities need to develop improved varieties and provide access to trenchless subsurface drainage technology and other advanced techniques.

Second, the regime must establish meaningful income protections that leverage market mechanisms to raise grain prices and stabilize farmers’ incomes.

Climate change-related disasters have reduced farm output, shrinking food supplies and cutting farmers’ income. The resulting economic downturn has severely damaged North Korean society overall.

A key weakness of North Korea’s top-down management system is its inability to respond adequately to farm income fluctuations. This is why autonomous management must be adopted.

The regime should give farmers authority to run their own operations instead of binding them to municipal and county management committees that impose party policy mechanically. Farmers should be empowered to make decisions about their farms, while management committees provide technical and material support.

Most importantly, party and government officials at both central and regional levels must stop meddling in agriculture when they lack field expertise.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Jo Hyon, PhD, Kyungnam University · May 23, 2025


11. U.S. plans troop cut, challenges await South Korea


​The key US national security interest in Northeast Asia is preventing/deterring war on the Korean peninsula. US troops significantly contribute to that deterrence. The question is what level of flexibility and agility can we obtain from US forces on the Korean peninsula while deterring Kim Jong Un's aggression. We cannot simply count the number of troops to determine deterrence. We must look at all our strategic challenges in the region holistically. And I think if we do that we will strengthen deterrence in the entire region.


We have to continue to evolve and optimize our force presence. We must not be afraid of change. And we must never interpet change to mean a reduction in commitment. Frankly some officials need a lesson in communication. There is some residual Rumsfeld among some US officials today - they look down on the ROK/US alliance, view it is a distraction and would rather wash their hands of it because they fail to grasp the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. And they fail to recognize or accept that what happens on the Korean peninsula will have huge effects on the US homeland. Nor do they understand and respect that South Korea really does own the burden of their defense. Instead they are stuck in the old paradigm of the US as the big brother, and Korea as the junior partner.


On the other hand, Koreans must not fear change to US force posture. It cannot give the perception that it is counting on the US to come to the rescue and save Korea. What Korea must do is also take a hoslic view of the region and determine how it can support deterrence and defense throughout the pacific region (as in the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty) and how it can work with allies to improve mutual deterrence eof command and linked threats.


There are opportunities here if we jettison "old think" and evolve the alliance based on the foundation of our alliance which is our shared values, trust, and mutual respect.



U.S. plans troop cut, challenges await South Korea

Posted May. 24, 2025 07:20,   

Updated May. 24, 2025 07:20

https://www.donga.com/en/article/all/20250524/5621002/1


The Wall Street Journal reported May 22 that the U.S. Department of Defense is considering relocating approximately 4,500 of the 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea to other Indo-Pacific locations, including Guam. The plan is part of an unofficial reassessment of U.S. policy toward North Korea and has not yet been presented to President Trump. The South Korean government said any changes to U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) require mutual consultation, and no discussions have occurred between the two countries.


The proposed troop reduction is seen as one of the key “Trump risks” emerging during his second term. During his first administration, President Trump used the threat of USFK withdrawal as leverage to pressure South Korea for increased defense cost sharing, calling the country a “money machine.” The plan appears linked to his evolving North Korea policy and could serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Kim Jong Un.


The Pentagon is developing a new National Defense Strategy prioritizing homeland defense and deterring China. As U.S. forces are repositioned across the Indo-Pacific with a focus on countering China, adjusting USFK troop levels may be a relatively minor issue given the shifting security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula. Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense for policy and reportedly involved in drafting the strategy, has emphasized the central role of South Korean forces in countering North Korean threats. The U.S. may therefore press Seoul to allow greater “strategic flexibility” for USFK, enabling deployments beyond Peninsula-focused operations.


With South Korea’s new government set to take office 10 days after the presidential election, trade talks with the U.S., including tariff adjustments, are expected to begin immediately. Observers anticipate a comprehensive negotiation format, with Trump potentially linking national security issues such as troop reductions, strategic flexibility, and defense burden sharing. Meanwhile, North Korea, having advanced its nuclear and missile programs, is modernizing its conventional forces with Russian support. The incoming administration will need to be fully prepared to safeguard the military and economic alliance with the U.S. while deterring North Korean provocations.



12. Presidential race tightens as conservatives close gap on frontrunner Lee Jae-myung


​Is 11 days enough time to close the gap?


Graphics at the link.



Presidential race tightens as conservatives close gap on frontrunner Lee Jae-myung

Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok's combined support nears frontrunner's in polls, fueling calls for conservative unity with 11 days to go

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/05/23/KQRI44C43BA6ZEP65MBDB7BOIU/

By Kim Seung-jae,

Cho Baek-keun,

Kim Seo-young

Published 2025.05.23. 16:30




From left, Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo, and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok. /Nam Kang-ho, Kim Ji-ho, Yonhap

With just 11 days remaining until South Korea’s presidential election on June 3, conservative candidates Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the minor Reform Party are narrowing the gap with Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung. Recent polls show their combined support approaching Lee’s, intensifying pressure within the conservative bloc to unite behind a single candidate. However, Lee Jun-seok reaffirmed his intention to stay in the race. On May 22, he said, “I will win this election under the name of Lee Jun-seok and the Reform Party.”

Lee Jae-myung’s support had hovered around 50% but recently dipped to the mid-40s. Analysts suggest the decline may stem from a shift in campaign strategy. “After crossing 50%, he seemed to prioritize a safe, low-risk approach rather than driving the agenda,” one expert said.


Graphics by Rhee Choul-won

A joint survey released on May 22 by Gallup Korea and the Korea Association of Regional Newspapers showed Kim Moon-soo at 34% and Lee Jun-seok at 11%, bringing their combined support to 45%, just one point behind Lee Jae-myung, who stood at 46%. Another nationwide poll conducted by Embrain Public, KSTAT Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research reported similar results, with Kim at 32%, Lee Jun-seok at 10%, and Lee Jae-myung again at 46%, putting the conservatives within a margin of error of 3.1%p. Compared to the previous week’s results from the same survey with Lee Jae-myung at 49%, Kim at 27%, and Lee Jun-seok at 7%, Lee’s support has dipped slightly while both conservative candidates have gained ground.

Yoon Tae-gon, head of political analysis at consultancy Moa, said Lee Jae-myung is still viewed by many as a strong but risky candidate. “He had been gaining ground with moderate conservatives by projecting stability, but that progress seems to have been undermined by the recent controversy over his ‘120 won coffee’ remark,” Yoon said.

Lee Taek-soo, CEO of polling firm Realmeter, noted that Kim Moon-soo is gaining traction as he consolidates the conservative base. “Since former President Yoon Suk-yeol left the party, and with endorsements from former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and campaign support from former Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon, Kim has been able to rally core conservatives and attract some unaffiliated voters,” he said.

While the People Power Party is focusing on unifying with Lee Jun-seok, polls indicate that a single conservative candidate may not outperform the current three-way race. Analysts cite strong mutual dislike between Kim and Lee Jun-seok’s core supporters as a major obstacle. This friction suggests that merging behind one candidate could lead to voter attrition.

In a three-way poll conducted by Research and Research and Channel A on May 19–20, Kim polled at 35.4% and Lee Jun-seok at 9.9%, totaling 45.3%. Lee Jae-myung stood at 46.1%, keeping the race within the margin of error. However, in head-to-head matchups, Lee Jae-myung led Kim 48.9% to 39.5%, and Lee Jun-seok 47.2% to 31.3%, both outside the margin of error.

A polling expert said, “According to the NBS survey, about 70% of voters in their 60s and 70s, who support Kim Moon-soo, view Lee Jun-seok negatively. Likewise, nearly 70% of voters in their 20s and 30s, Lee’s main base, have a negative view of Kim. That’s why a unified candidacy wouldn’t fully bring their supporters together.” A political source added, “The key isn’t just merging to win. What matters is whether they can come up with a unification plan that feels meaningful and resonates with supporters.”


Graphics by Rhee Choul-won

South Korea presidential election

Lee Jae-myung

Kim Moon-soo

Lee Jun-seok





13. Four candidates clash over how to address aging society, trade blows over political stances



​You do not get photos like these in US debates and presidential elections.



Four candidates clash over how to address aging society, trade blows over political stances

koreaherald.com · by Yoon Min-sik, Jung Min-kyung · May 23, 2025

Health benefits, pension funds headline presidential debate over social issues

Presidential candidates pose for a photo ahead of their second TV debate at the KBS Studio in Seoul on Friday. From left: Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, Kwon Young-kook of the Democratic Labor Party and Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party. (Yonhap)

Four leading candidates in the upcoming June 3 presidential election fiercely clashed over social issues in their second televised debate, Friday from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., discussing ways to overcome political conflicts within society, resolving energy issues and how to procure funding for the national health insurance and pension programs.

Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party and Kwon Young-kook of the Democratic Labor Party were asked how they would address factional divides within Korean society, which have deepened in light of the political turmoil following Yoon Suk Yeol's December imposition of martial law and his subsequent impeachment and removal from the presidency.

Top two candidates play blame game

Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo, the top two presidential candidates, locked horns as they jockeyed to blame each other and the actions of their respective parties as major reasons behind the country’s widening social divide.

“We must respect our opponents and attempt to talk to them, acknowledge them and compromise, but we try to eliminate them,” Lee of the liberal Democratic Party said, saying such attempts to “eliminate” opponents constitute the main cause of the social divide. “The most extreme form of this is the latest insurrection and martial law case.”

Lee said that failure is reflected in former President Yoon’s “insurrection case” tied to his failed Dec. 3 martial law bid. Lee said that overcoming the current political turmoil stemming from martial law and “bringing strict judgment” to those involved in the insurrection case would be “the most important solution” to patch the social divide.

Kim, meanwhile, pointed to lying and corruption ― taking an apparent jab at Lee who is facing five different trials ― as catalysts fueling the growing divide.

Presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung (left) of the Democratic Party of Korea and Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party prepare for their second TV debate at the KBS Studio in Seoul on Friday. (Yonhap)

Kim attacked Lee by referring to charges of election law violations, while stressing that "corrupted” elements must be eliminated for social unification.

“For us to truly achieve social unification, the fraudsters must be gone. Shouldn’t there be no corrupted person in order for us (to achieve) unity among the people?” Kim said at the debate.

Kim lambasted Lee and the Democratic Party for summoning the Supreme Court chief to a parliamentary hearing after the top court on May 1 overturned a lower court’s acquittal of Lee on charges of an election law violation.

Earlier this month, the National Assembly’s Legislation and Judiciary Committee, led by the Democratic Party, summoned Chief Justice Jo Hee-de to appear at a parliamentary hearing to explain the court’s handling of the case. However, the Supreme Court submitted a statement saying it would be difficult for Jo and other justices to attend "for various reasons."

“After the Supreme Court sent back the case (to a lower) court, believing Lee is guilty after lying and violating the election law, he has been trying to do as he pleases with the Supreme Court, such as summoning the chief justice to a hearing, attempting to impeach (the chief justice) and appointing 100 top justices,” Kim said.

The Seoul High Court had acquitted Lee of lying as a presidential candidate during the 2022 presidential election campaign, which the Supreme Court overturned and sent back. The appeals court has since postponed the first hearing of Lee’s retrial on election law violation charges until after the June 3 presidential election.

South Korea's widening social divide has been characterized by growing income inequality, gender conflicts and political polarization.

Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party, the youngest presidential candidate in the country's history, stressed that replacing the old generation with the new in the politics is the most important step forward. Criticizing the Democratic Party candidate for what he called instigation over his past comment over coffee's production cost being 120 won (9 cents), he said the previous generation in Korean politics is dividing society based on social class and generation.

Kwon Young-kook, meanwhile, said that fair distribution of wealth is crucial to unity within society. He vowed to work for the rights of 13 million workers in unstable jobs getting paid low wages, to enact a comprehensive anti-discrimination act and to eradicate conspiracy theories of election rigging claimed by supporters of Yoon and what he called "far-right powers."

New Reform Party's Lee criticizes lack of funding plans

The minor conservative candidate Lee ferociously attacked Lee Jae-myung, the clear front-runner of the presidential race so far, as he accused the liberal candidate of populist welfare policies without viable plans to acquire the necessary budget. He said that Lee's plan to expand nursing programs for senior citizens would require an additional 15 trillion won and that Lee's plan to regulate excessive benefits could only cover some 2 trillion or 3 trillion won.

Front-runner Lee said that 15 trillion won was just a claim made by Lee Jun-seok, and that he would push for the plan in a feasible range.

When Lee Jae-myung threw the question back to Lee Jun-seok and asked how he would address this issue, Lee said he would cut down on benefits for medical treatments without scientifically proven effects.

Concerning pension reforms, the Democratic Party's Lee said the New Reform Party candidate's pledge for two separate tracks for older and younger workers would cost 609 trillion won, accusing him of continuing to stoke divide along lines of generation and gender.

The younger Lee retorted that the current plan without such a division would force most of the younger generation to lose at least 30 million won per person, in terms of their benefits compared to the subscription fee they have to pay.

The two candidates also clashed on the energy issue, as Democratic Party candidate stressed the importance of renewable energy, but the New Reform Party candidate labeled the previous liberal administration's nuclear phase-out policy under ex-President Moon Jae-in as "unscientific energy policies."

He accused the liberal candidate of lacking faith in Korea's nuclear power plants, to which the latter Lee denied and said he simply acknowledged safety risks. The Democratic Party's Lee vowed to increase the percentage of renewable energy, solar power, wind power and pumped-storage hydroelectricity to cover energy needs.

From left: Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party and Kwon Young-kook of the Democratic Labor Party (Yonhap)

Kim, Lee Jun-seok align on energy, pension reform

While the New Reform Party’s Lee clashed with the front-runner on numerous issues, he offered similar views to People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo on energy policy and pension reforms at Friday’s debate.

Kim stressed the importance of further utilizing nuclear power as the country’s main source of energy.

“Because the previous Moon Jae-in administration pushed policies focused on the phase-out of nuclear power, the nuclear ecosystem here has collapsed,” Kim said. “This led to damages amounting to trillions of won.”

Kim said nuclear energy is essential for supporting the expansion of high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence as it would provide a “cheap and stable” source of energy for such industries. A system to generate renewable energy should be pursued in tandem, he added.

Lee of the New Reform Party also criticized the liberal bloc’s stance in pushing for the phasing out of nuclear power, calling for “reasonable climate policies based on science and common sense and aligned with the global standards."

On the issue of national pension reform, the two conservative candidates pledged to prioritize “alleviating the burden on the future generation” while pursuing change.

“The latest pension reform has a problem and was met by backlash from young Koreans (mostly in their 20s and 30s) ― I plan to immediately launch a second reform (when I’m elected),” Kim said.

Lee Jun-seok called the latest pension reform ― the first structural change implemented by the government in 18 years ― “fake.”

“It’s a fake reform that changed only the numbers and did not touch on the structure,” Lee criticized, adding that the new system places a long-term financial burden on young Koreans, while older generations “get more.”


minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com

mkjung@heraldcorp.com


koreaherald.com · by Yoon Min-sik, Jung Min-kyung · May 23, 2025



14. RFA's investigative report on North Korean workers in Senegal wins New York Festivals Silver Medal


​Congratulations to 3 outstanding journalists. It is a shame America is treating award winning journalists the way it is.


This is a Google translation of an RFA report.


Here is the message I received from them when I wrote to congratulate them. This is so sad and frustrating.


Furloughed Staff Email 

More

to me


*********************************

Thank you for your email. I am currently on furlough and will be unable to monitor or respond to emails until the furlough has ended. If your matter is urgent, please contact WeAreRFA@rfa.org or 1 (202) 530-4900.

*********************************



RFA's investigative report on North Korean workers in Senegal wins New York Festivals Silver Medal

RFA Staff

2025.05.22

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in-focus/2025/05/22/north-korea-senegal-workers-rfa-nyf/


From left, Jeongmin Noh, Jaewoo Park, and Hyungjun Yoo of Radio Free Asia (RFA), who won silver at the 2025 New York Festival. (RFA)


Radio Free Asia (RFA) Korean language service has won the world-renowned '2025 New York Festival Radio Award.'


The New York Festivals announced that the investigative report “North Korean Workers Stranded in Senegal,” planned and produced by Korean service reporters Noh Jeong-min, Park Jae-woo, and Yu Hyeong-jun, won the Silver Award.


This work, which took a year from planning to reporting and broadcasting, sheds light on the reality of exploitation of North Korean workers who worked illegally in Senegal, Africa, despite UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea.



In particular, the three reporters succeeded in making contact with a North Korean worker working undercover in Dakar, the capital of Senegal, in May of last year, and uncovered important clues about the lives of North Korean workers overseas. They were evaluated as accurately exposing the reality that, as the North Korean authorities have banned the return of overseas workers due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they are living in isolation locally, and under surveillance and control, they are paying 80% of their income to the Kim Jong-un regime.


In addition, the North Korean worker whom the reporting team met was separated from his wife and children for over six years against his will, and whether he could return home depended on the approval of the North Korean authorities, providing a glimpse into the reality of human rights violations.




The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2375 in 2017, which prohibited member states from hiring North Korean workers and specified that all workers must be repatriated by December 2019.


The New York Festival, which began in 1957, evaluates and awards creativity and expertise in TV, radio, and advertising every year, and this year, many famous media outlets from around the world, including the Washington Post, NPR, Bloomberg, Netflix in the U.S., and the BBC in the U.K., participated.



15. North Korea’s crude oil supply temporarily stabilizes… Is it because of Russian troops dispatched?




​This is a Google translation of an RFA report.



North Korea’s crude oil supply temporarily stabilizes… Is it because of Russian troops dispatched?

Seoul-Ahn Chang-gyu xallsl@rfa.org

2025.05.22

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in-focus/2025/05/22/north-korea-fuel-supply-temporary-stability/

A gas station attendant fills a taxi with gasoline at a gas station in Pyongyang in July 2017. (AFP)



Anchor: Recently, there is news that a lot of crude oil has been released into North Korea. The authorities have also supplied oil for rice planting equipment to major farms in preparation for the spring farming season. Reporter Ahn Chang-gyu reports from inside North Korea.


Since the economic crisis, North Korea has suffered from a shortage of crude oil that is no less than a food shortage. In the absence of crude oil, charcoal-powered cars powered by gas produced by burning wood have long since appeared, and tractors and farm machinery have often not been able to operate properly even during the farming season.


Recently, news has been delivered that a lot of crude oil has been released into North Korea.


A source from North Pyongan Province (who requested anonymity for personal safety reasons) reported on the 19th, “This year, rice planting started late, but the proportion of rice seedlings planted by machines (transplanters) is high, so the planting is progressing quickly.”


“The authorities have supplied some of the oil needed to plant rice seedlings to farms that had good harvests last year for this year’s harvest,” the source explained. “As a result, there are definitely more machines moving around the fields to plant rice seedlings than in previous years.”


He said, “Every spring, the work of plowing the fields and transporting fertilizer had to be done by tractors in order to properly prepare for farming. In order to finish planting rice seedlings in season, they had to be planted by machines, not by hand. However, there was always a shortage of oil, which was a struggle.”


The source said, “Every year, the biggest concern for farm managers, including foremen, was how to secure the necessary oil for rice planting,” and “This year, the government has partially guaranteed oil, which has caused great concern for farm managers.”


He added, “If we use a lot of tractors and rice planting machines, we can finish transplanting rice seedlings quickly with less support effort (manpower).”


In North Korea, farms can easily solve the labor shortage by receiving a lot of support from urban workers, students, etc. in the spring and fall. However, since the state takes the crops harvested in proportion to the amount of work they did, some farms are trying to receive less support in order to increase the farmers’ share, according to the source.


In May 2022, farmers are planting rice seedlings using a rice transplanter at Cheongsan Cooperative Farm in Gangseo-gu, Nampo-si.

Farmers use rice transplanters to plant rice seedlings at Cheongsan Cooperative Farm in Gangseo-gu, Nampo-si, May 2022. (AFP)



​16.  Optimizing U.S. and Allied Forces for Deterrence and Defense Throughout Indo-Pacom: From Korea to Australia and Everywhere in Between


Opinion / Perspective| The Latest

Optimizing U.S. and Allied Forces for Deterrence and Defense Throughout Indo-Pacom: From Korea to Australia and Everywhere in Between

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/05/24/us-allies-deterrence-indo-pacific/

by David Maxwell

 

|

 

05.24.2025 at 06:00am


We are at a critical inflection point in the Indo-Pacific. As China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea, (collectively and informally named the “CRInK,”) expand their influence and strategic cooperation, malign activities, and threats to peace and stability. The United States and its allies must respond with agility, unity, and resolve. The core question is not just how many American troops are in a specific location, but whether U.S. forces are organized, trained, equipped, and postured in a way that deters adversaries, reassures allies, and ensures mutual defense across the entire region, from the Korean Peninsula to Australia and beyond.

Recent reports, such as the Wall Street Journal’s coverage of potential U.S. troop reductions in South Korea, have triggered concern and confusion among policymakers, the public, and our allies. Although the Pentagon immediately denied the report and reinforced support for the alliance, the underlying issue is strategic: How do we optimize U.S. and allied forces to meet current and emerging threats in the Indo-Pacific?

The Imperative of Strategic Synchronization

For the first time in decades, we have strategic alignment among the Indo-PACOM Commander, the Commander of the United Nations Command, the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea. These commanders recognize that the threats from China, North Korea, and their partners cannot be addressed in isolation. Taiwan and Korea are not separate challenges. They are connected potential conflict areas in a broader strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific theater. Any review of U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific must be holistic, theater-informed, and synchronized with our treaty allies in South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines foremost among them.

This review cannot and must not be driven solely from the Pentagon. It must begin with assessments and recommendations from those closest to the threats, the theater experts who understand regional dynamics and alliance requirements. Top-down directives that ignore local insight risk repeating past mistakes, undermining deterrence, and weakening trust among partners.

Beyond Troop Numbers: Metrics of Commitment

Unfortunately, public discourse often reduces alliance commitment to a single, misleading metric: the number of U.S. troops in-country. This narrow lens not only distorts reality but also risks damaging alliance cohesion. Technology, capabilities, operational doctrine, and campaign plans, not troop numbers, must guide force posture. Modern deterrence is about capability, credibility, and will, and not just physical presence.

Whether forces are stationed in CONUS, Guam, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Hawaii, Alaska, or Australia, what matters most is that they are positioned to contribute to theater-wide deterrence, rapid response, and the mutual defense of allies. Repositioning forces to increase survivability, flexibility, and strategic agility is not abandonment, it is adaptation to a dynamic threat environment.

Every movement of troops must be understood in context: Is it part of a broader strategy to increase deterrence options across the first and second island chains? Is it enhancing our ability to support allies under threat? Is it building resilience and sustainability for long-term competition and conflict?

The CRInK Strategy and the “Silk Web” of Alliances

The CRInK powers recognize the United States’ asymmetric advantage: our global network of alliances and partnerships. Their collective strategy seeks to weaken that “silk web” by exploiting fissures in allied trust, spreading disinformation, and provoking fear that the U.S. will prioritize one ally or region over another. Pundits, policy makers, and the press inadvertently support their efforts when they focus myopically on troops numbers and whether those number indicate commitment or abandonment. If we appear to prioritize Taiwan over Korea, or vice versa, adversaries win.

To counter this, U.S. and allied leaders must reinforce two messages to their publics:

  1. Strategic Resolve: The U.S. and allies will fulfill all their treaty obligations across the Indo-Pacific. Period.
  2. Strategic Reassurance: Deterrence is a shared mission, and it requires shared sacrifice, coordination, and integration of U.S. and allied forces.

It is not the sole responsibility of the U.S. to bear the burden of deterrence. Allied militaries must also optimize their own force structures, modernize capabilities, and deepen interoperability with U.S. forces. The question is not only how the U.S. stations troops, but how all allies contribute to the collective defense architecture. Every country first and foremost owns its own defense burden. Therefore, there must be “burden owning” to have burden sharing.

Organize, Train, Equip, Station, Optimize

We must answer these four strategic questions:

  1. How do we organize U.S. and allied forces across the Indo-Pacific to provide a deterrence architecture that is integrated and synchronized?
  2. How do we train together, multilaterally and bilaterally, to ensure readiness for high-end conflict across domains and geographies?
  3. How do we equip our forces with interoperable systems, resilient C4ISR, and the platforms needed to fight and win in a contested environment?
  4. How do we station forces smartly, balancing forward presence, mobility, survivability, and strategic agility?

Answers to these questions cannot come solely from Washington. They must emerge from sustained dialogue between theater commands, allied militaries, and civilian leaders. The objective is not just deterrence by denial, but deterrence by integration: integrating U.S. and allied forces into a credible, combined defense posture that signals unwavering resolve.

Toward a Unified Defense Posture

The way ahead requires new structures and concepts. Some concepts for possible consideration:

  • Combined Multi-Domain Task Forces positioned across the region. (e.g., build the first one in Korea initially and then in each allied country)
  • Shared logistics networks and prepositioned stocks to reduce response time.
  • Interoperable C2 systems to allow real-time coordination among allies.
  • A Joint Arsenal of Democracy, exemplified by a JAROKUS (Japan-ROK-U.S.) shipbuilding consortium.
  • Integrated exercises such as Talisman Sabre, Yama Sakura, Balikatan, and Freedom Shield and others that simulate real-world, combined response to regional crises.

Strategic Agility Platforms

It is time to break the calcified concepts of overseas basing. Each ally provides unique operational basing capabilities. Each should be viewed as a ‘strategic agility platform” that can serve multiple purposes such as a training location, a deployment platform, an intermediate staging base, and a base for permanently assigned forces. The Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base complex can serve as a model for this. This takes particular advantage of the largest overseas U.S. military base. Forces at Camp Humphreys/Osan would serve as a deterrent force that is dual apportioned to multiple contingencies across the spectrum of conflict thus providing the US and allies strategic agility.

U.S. Forces Korea’s mission would remain nearly the same as a subunified command assigned to INDOPACOM, and a supporting command and force provider to the warfighting headquarters, the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command. Since it is already headquartered at a strategic agility platform its mission would expand as a force provider and intermediate staging base for other contingencies as required. Its comparative advantage as a proven force provider would make it a theater force multiplier while contributing to deterrence on the Korean peninsula.

Key to this concept is a robust integrated missile defense capability to defend these locations. This needs to be a high priority for US and alliance planning and development.

This could be an opportunity for building a 21st-century version of Churchill and Eisenhower’s vision of a “grand alliance,” but adapted from World War II to the Indo-Pacific battlespace and anchored in mutual defense treaties to address both great power politics and multiple potential conflicts.

Conclusion: Allies Always

We must resist being trapped by headlines and simplistic narratives. U.S. commitment to Korea or Australia, to Japan or Taiwan or the Philippines, cannot be measured in troop numbers alone. It must be measured in capability, responsiveness, and alliance cohesion.

The bottom line is we need the right U.S. and allied force with the right capabilities, in the right locations, at the right time to provide the U.S. and the leaders of the silk web alliance architecture the ability to seize the initiative and create dilemmas for our adversaries across the spectrum of conflict in the gray zone and during multiple contingencies.

We must communicate clearly: Every decision we make is in service of regional deterrence, mutual defense, and strategic agility. As the security environment evolves, so must our posture. But we evolve with our allies, not apart from them.

Let us remember: America First, Allies Always. Because in this era of great power competition, our alliances are not just our values—they are our most vital strategic and asymmetric advantage.

Tags: Deterrence, INDO-PACIFIC, INDOPACOM, strategic deterrence, US Foreign Policy

About The Author


  • David Maxwell
  • David Maxwell is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 30 years in the Asia Pacific region (primarily Korea, Japan, and the Philippines) as a practitioner, specializing in Northeast Asian Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Vice President of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy. He commanded the Joint Special Operations Task Force Philippines during the war on terrorism and is the former J5 and Chief of Staff of the Special Operations Command Korea, and G3 of the US Army Special Operations Command. Following retirement, he was the Associate Director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. He is a member of the board of directors of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea and the OSS Society, on the board of advisers of Spirit of America, and is a contributing editor to Small Wars Journal.








De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
 
 
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


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