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Quotes of the Day:
"No political theory is adequate unless it is applicable to children as well as to men and women...The two principles of justice and liberty...will not give much guidance as regards education."
– Bertrand Russell
The day knowledge was preferred to wisdom and mere usefulness to beauty. . . . Only a moral revolution -- not a social or a political revolution -- only a moral revolution would lead man back to his lost truth.
– Simone de Beauvoir
“The old terms must be invented with new meaning and given new explanations. Liberty, equality, and fraternity are no longer what they were in the days of the late-lamented guillotine. This is what the politicians will not understand; and that is why I hate them. They want only their own special revolutions- external revolutions, political revolutions, etc. But that is only dabbling. What is really needed is a revolution of the human spirit.”
– Henrik Ibsen
1. Are Russia and North Korea planning an ‘October surprise’ that aids Trump?
2. Can the U.S. Defend South Korea and Taiwan Simultaneously?
3. Ex-U.S. diplomat notes Trump's apparent distrust toward N. Korean leader in FP interview
4. Austin to attend trilateral talks with South Korean, Japanese counterparts in Singapore: Pentagon
5. Trade, not N. Korea nukes, on agenda for talks between China, South Korea and Japan
6. S. Korea completes development of L-SAM defense system
7. U.S. girding for possibility of N. Korea taking most provocative military actions in decade near election: NBC
8. Seoul to host series of summit meetings with Beijing and Tokyo
9. N. Korea to convene key party meeting next month
10. Korea-Japan-China summit Monday could be ‘turning point’ to normalized ties in Northeast Asia
11. [Wang Son-taek] Limits and chances from the limitless alliance (China- Russia)
12. Debate over S. Korea's nuclear option resurfaces amid NK's continuing threats
1. Are Russia and North Korea planning an ‘October surprise’ that aids Trump?
Let's think this through. What action could Russia and north Korea take that would help Trump? There is no operation that north Korea has conducted since 1953 that would likely impact a presidential election. So if seventy years of provocations will likely not have any effect what "new" provocation is required to be able to affect the election?
What "provocative military action" will be sufficient to change the outcome of the election?
Is a north Korean nuclear test an election changer? I doubt it.
And for those who think Russia and north Korea want to help Trump get elected please provide the analysis as to what RUssia and north Korea are going to do with a second Trump presidency. How do they expect to exploit him for their gains? How will his presidency support their objectives?
Are Russia and North Korea planning an ‘October surprise’ that aids Trump?
U.S. officials are bracing for Pyongyang to take military actions close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at the urging of Vladimir Putin.
NBC News · by Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee
WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.
U.S. officials are also bracing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging, the officials said.
The timing, they said, could be designed to create turmoil in yet another part of the world as Americans decide whether to send President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump back to the White House.
“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said.
The first test firing of the North Korean Hwasongpho-16B, a new type of intermediate-range fueled ballistic missile, on April 2.KCNA / AFP - Getty Images file
U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help elect Trump. The Biden administration had tense relations with Russia, which collapsed after it invaded Ukraine in 2022.
After the publication of this story, Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesman, said “the only ‘October surprise’ will be the look of shock” among reporters when Trump wins re-election.
With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials expect them to solidify a new deal to expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang.
“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”
A burgeoning alliance
U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.
Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile.
In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine, based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials said Pyongyang was most likely exaggerating its capabilities. They said the submarine still needed additional technology before it could deploy or launch a nuclear-armed missile.
Despite repeatedly offering to begin talks without any conditions, the U.S. has had no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years, the officials said. The administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but it did not respond.
A Russian artillery unit fires a D-30 howitzer toward Ukrainian positions on Jan. 26, 2023.RIA Novosti / Sputnik via AP
U.S. officials said they do not have an entirely clear understanding of the types of technology Russia is supplying North Korea. Unlike weapons transfers that can be physically tracked, sharing of military technology is not as easily detected.
“The higher-end Russia technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.
U.S. officials cautioned that the North Korean ammunition is most likely old and unreliable. But North Korea sent the artillery at a time when Ukraine was struggling with stockpiles and had to ration ammunition, so the influx gave Russia an advantage on the battlefield.
The officials said that in exchange for the ammunition it is providing Moscow, North Korea wants Russia to provide it with ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technologies.
In recent months North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and other incremental advances that together have made its missile program more reliable, U.S. officials warn.
Pyongyang has long sought a long-range ballistic missile able to fly thousands of miles and then re-enter the atmosphere with the payload intact. U.S. officials warn that Russia could now be helping it achieve the final steps. A nuclear-capable missile with survivable re-entry vehicles would present a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems.
U.S. officials also said there has been increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear test facilities, which could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published in April by Beyond Parallel, a project examining the Korean Peninsula at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.
The group said that “both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel.”
The Biden administration has been expecting a nuclear test from North Korea for some time. The U.S. recently prepared contingency plans for how to respond if Kim takes aggressive actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea or shells South Korea’s border islands, which he has not done since 2010.
“We are going to be ready and prepared,” the senior administration official said, noting the administration’s coordination with South Korea and Japan.
U.S. officials said they are also concerned that Moscow could help North Korea with its domestic manufacturing of weapons and even create a defense industrial base partnership.
An 'October surprise'?
Whether or not Putin encourages Kim to take provocative actions designed to create a so-called October surprise in the U.S. presidential election, a second senior administration official said Russia might hesitate to such a step. The official said China, which has also grown closer to Russia and helped Putin wage his war in Ukraine, typically does not want instability in the region.
Still, U.S. officials concede there is much about the Russia-North Korea alliance — and where it could go from here — that they do not know. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region would come after two wars have broken out since Biden took office: one in Ukraine and the other between Israel and Hamas.
Trump has argued that both wars are a result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened were he in office. Biden White House officials vehemently dispute that claim.
The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim represents a major shift from when Russia worked with the U.S. in the past to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to give Pyongyang cover to evade sanctions enforcement measures intended to constrain its nuclear program.
“This is an enormous shift,” the second senior administration official said.
NBC News · by Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee
2. Can the U.S. Defend South Korea and Taiwan Simultaneously?
I think this is fundamentally the wrong question but it is indicative of how we Americans think. It is all about us and what we can and will do. But Dr. Bennett does recognize the importance of allies and enhancing their cooperation but I really want to highlight the headline the headline editor used and how that illustrates our America only thinking.
Taiwan and Korea together may be the ultimate wicked (military) problem of the 21st Century. Given the combination of both the tyranny of distance (US distance from the combat theaters) and the tyranny of proximity (distance [proximity] of the threats [China and north Korea] to the objectives [Taiwan and South Korea]) it may be impossible for the US alone to defend both.
The proper question may be can the US AND its allies defend Taiwan and South Korea?
Now let's think through how China and north Korea interpret this article and what opportunities they see and might exploit? Does this give them confidence?
And then ask the ultimate questions: How can we prevent war in Taiwan and on the Korean peninsula?
Can the U.S. Defend South Korea and Taiwan Simultaneously?
The U.S. currently lacks the military capability to defend South Korea, Taiwan, and other allies simultaneously. To ensure security in Northeast Asia, the U.S. needs to increase its military investments and enhance allied cooperation.
nationalinterest.org
Can the U.S. Defend South Korea and Taiwan Simultaneously? | The National Interest
May 24, 2024 Topic: Security Region: Americas Blog Brand: The Buzz
The U.S. currently lacks the military capability to defend South Korea, Taiwan, and other allies simultaneously. To ensure security in Northeast Asia, the U.S. needs to increase its military investments and enhance allied cooperation.
by Bruce W. Bennett Follow @bwbennett on Twitter L
Summary: The U.S. currently lacks the military capability to defend South Korea, Taiwan, and other allies simultaneously. To ensure security in Northeast Asia, the U.S. needs to increase its military investments and enhance allied cooperation.
-This includes augmenting both conventional and nuclear forces and developing a clear strategy to deter adversaries.
-The U.S. has shifted from building forces capable of defending two theaters simultaneously, relying instead on strategic ambiguity.
-However, growing threats from adversaries like China and North Korea necessitate a return to more robust military preparations and enhanced alliances.
-South Korea, in particular, needs to bolster its military capabilities, including improved reserve training and air force dispersal strategies.
The United States right now lacks the military capabilities needed to defend South Korea, Taiwan, and other allies all at the same time. Defending its allies and partners in Northeast Asia will require greater U.S. military investment and greater allied cooperation.
The Urgent Need for Enhanced U.S. Military Investment in Northeast Asia
The United States should significantly augment both the quantity and quality of its conventional and nuclear forces, both at home and in the region. It must also enhance its commitments and strategies for dealing with foreign challenges, convincing adversary leaders that they will not find U.S. and allied gaps to exploit.
In recent decades, the United States has abandoned building military forces, supplies, and logistics capable of defending even two theaters simultaneously – doing so is viewed as just too expensive. Washington bet on strategic ambiguity to deter adversaries while maintaining significant but limited military capabilities. In the post-Cold War era, where no major adversary posed a serious threat to the United States, that approach worked well enough, and it allowed the U.S. to moderate its military expenditures.
But times have changed. Declared adversaries of the United States are pursuing substantial military capability enhancements. Meanwhile, the United States is struggling to maintain existing military capabilities in bulk. For example, the United States deferred nuclear force modernization for several decades despite adversary modernization programs. The planned U.S. modernization program reduces the number of U.S. strategic nuclear weapons. A recent bipartisan congressional commission found the program inadequate.
To meet its global security requirements, the current U.S. administration has been quite clear that it needs global allies and partners. This is especially true relative to Chinese threats, against which the United States requires allied assistance in both military and economic terms. But the U.S. will not have the needed allies and partners unless it also commits to their national security.
Some U.S. voices are turning away from allies and partners. For example, some feel that the United States should substantially reduce its security commitments to South Korea and give Seoul the responsibility for maintaining its security against North Korea. But doing so could well convince the South Koreans to not support the United States in dealing with China, and that would not be in the U.S. interest. Alliances are designed to achieve mutual security, not just U.S. security.
To manage growing adversary threats, the United States and its allies and partners each need to significantly enhance their own military capabilities, then work closely together to integrate those capabilities. While it might be tempting to defer military improvements because of the financial cost, like the United States did before World War II, in future conflicts the U.S. is unlikely to have the kind of recovery period it had in the early years of World War II to rebuild its military capabilities and industrial base. It may have no recovery period at all.
Some U.S. adversaries appear to be searching for U.S. and allied capability gaps. Thus in 2024 North Korea has claimed successful hypersonic missile tests; it hopes these missiles will overcome U.S. missile defenses. Fortunately, the United States already has some Patriot capability against such threats, while the U.S. and Japan have agreed to develop interceptors to counter hypersonic glide vehicles. But these capabilities will not be cheap.
In June 2023 the United States released a National Intelligence Estimate extract that suggests North Korea is most likely to use its nuclear weapons for coercive purposes. Washington faced a similar concern in the 1970s. It worried that the Soviet Union might employ limited nuclear attacks against the United States, with the Soviets hoping their nuclear capabilities could deter a massive U.S. retaliation. In response, the United States developed limited nuclear options (LNOs) that allowed a U.S. president to respond proportionally to any Soviet limited nuclear attack while imposing unacceptable costs on the Soviet Union. Threatened LNO abilities helped deter such Soviet attacks.
The United States once again needs a declaratory nuclear doctrine and strategy that includes LNOs.
On the South Korean side, its biennial Defense White Paper has for decades argued that to defend South Korea, the United States would provide 690,000 troops and 2,000 aircraft, among other resources. This has been an exaggeration for many years. But it helped South Korea feel comfortable reducing its army from 560,000 active duty personnel to 365,000 in 2022. That number has fallen further since then, the result of both unfavorable demographics and of political decisions to reduce the amount of time draftees must serve.
While South Korea’s army has a large number of reserve personnel, almost all of those reserves train no more than three days a year. That is not nearly enough to develop the unit cohesion needed for most military operations – including stabilization of North Korea, should South Korea-led unification ever become a reality.
Expanding the active-duty manpower of the South Korean army is neither demographically nor politically feasible. Thus, as I have argued before, the Republic of Korea Army needs a two-track reserve system: one track as done currently, and another where reserve soldiers are trained more like U.S. Army reserve personnel. American reserves train one weekend a month and two weeks each summer, or roughly 10 times the current annual level of South Korean army reserves.
Reservists would be allowed to choose their track, with those selecting the second track receiving a government scholarship that covers their college tuition even through graduate school. These reservists could then be trained to join active-duty army units when mobilized, substantially augmenting those forces.
South Korea’s Defense Reform 2020 plan, adopted in 2005, sought a turn to technology to deal with anticipated reductions in South Korean military manpower. It planned a total defense budget of 621 trillion won between 2006 and 2020 to cover all defense costs. Yet by 2020 the Ministry of National Defense had received only 522 trillion won, about 100 trillion won short of the plan. And because manpower costs actually increased, much of the reduction came out of South Korean military acquisition, significantly reducing the tradeoff between planned technology and manpower.
Many of South Korea’s limited military technology advances have favored the Republic of Korea Air Force – the U.S. F-35 and the Korean KF-21 fighter aircraft are examples. This approach made sense in confronting North Korea, allowing airpower to offset ground force reductions. But the growing North Korean nuclear threat makes much of that capability vulnerable, because it is largely located at a small number of airfields. Indeed, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been very clear that those airfields would be targets for nuclear weapons in future conflicts.
To counter this threat, South Korea’s air force needs to disperse at least some of its combat aircraft to civilian airfields even in peacetime, increasing the locations that a surprise North Korean nuclear attack would have to neutralize. It could man these dispersal airfields primarily with ROK Air Force reserve personnel who serve more days each year, like in the second-track army reserve proposed above. Highway landing strips could also be developed around both its main combat air bases and these dispersal air bases, as was done with the Swedish BAS 90 program during the Cold War. This would provide even greater air force resilience in a conflict.
The enhanced defense programs suggested here would cost money. But in a world where adversaries are increasing their military capabilities and presenting greater threats, the deterrence required for peace demands advanced, credible U.S. and allied capabilities. Abandoning the security of some U.S. allies to make up for inadequate U.S. and allied military investments is a dangerous, short-sighted approach.
About the Author: Dr. Bruce W. Bennett
Bruce W. Bennett is a senior international/defense researcher at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution. He works primarily on research topics such as strategy, force planning, and counterproliferation within the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center.
All images are Creative Commons.
November 21, 2023
by Maya Carlin
nationalinterest.org
3. Ex-U.S. diplomat notes Trump's apparent distrust toward N. Korean leader in FP interview
Sigh...
Excerpt:
"That f---er would knife me in the stomach if he had the chance," Trump was reportedly quoted by Sondland as saying in response to his question about Trump's view on Kim.
The expletive-laced answer appears to indicate Trump's distrust toward the reclusive leader.
On the campaign trail earlier this year, Trump underscored his close ties with the reclusive leader, saying America was "safe" then.
The referenced quote was the opening paragraph of a very long interview with Sonderland in Foreign Policy magazine this week at this link: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/23/gordon-sondland-interview-trump-ukraine-russia/
From that article there is only the opening quote and one other paragraph mentioning Kim/north Korea. Here are the actual quotes in FP Magazine:
Gordon Sondland recalls a time when he was in a car with Donald Trump. Sondland asked the then-U.S. president what he really thought of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
“‘OK, Mr. President, cut the bullshit. What do you think of Kim?’” Sondland says he asked Trump. “And he goes, ‘That fucker would knife me in the stomach if he had the chance.’”
...
Sondland’s point about Trump’s comments on Kim was that Trump has a tendency to lavish praise on strongmen in public—be it the North Korean leader or Russian President Vladimir Putin—but in the end, the former president knows the stakes of the game and has a sober realpolitik approach to national security. “He does not like Putin at all. At all,” Sondland said. “And while he compliments Putin publicly, he does it because it’s a contrarian strategy.”
Ex-U.S. diplomat notes Trump's apparent distrust toward N. Korean leader in FP interview | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 25, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 24 (Yonhap) -- Former President Donald Trump viewed North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as someone who would "knife" him in the stomach if there was a chance to do so, a former U.S. diplomat said in a media interview released this week.
In a recent interview with Foreign Policy, Gordon Sondland, who served as Trump's top envoy to the European Union from 2018-2020, made the revelation, drawing a stark contrast with the former president's repeated claim that he "got along very well" with Kim.
"That f---er would knife me in the stomach if he had the chance," Trump was reportedly quoted by Sondland as saying in response to his question about Trump's view on Kim.
The expletive-laced answer appears to indicate Trump's distrust toward the reclusive leader.
On the campaign trail earlier this year, Trump underscored his close ties with the reclusive leader, saying America was "safe" then.
During a meeting with supporters in 2018, Trump even said that he and Kim "fell in love," while boasting that Kim wrote him "beautiful letters."
With Trump seeking to return to the White House in the Nov. 5 election, observers raised expectations that he could leverage his vaunted ties with Kim to create an opening for the resumption of diplomacy with the recalcitrant regime.
Under his personal diplomacy toward the North, Trump had in-person meetings with Kim during his term, including their landmark first summit in Singapore in June 2018.
This AFP photo shows then U.S. President Donald Trump (R) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after signing a joint statement at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 25, 2024
4. Austin to attend trilateral talks with South Korean, Japanese counterparts in Singapore: Pentagon
Austin to attend trilateral talks with South Korean, Japanese counterparts in Singapore: Pentagon | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 25, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 24 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will attend a trilateral meeting with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts on the margins of an annual security forum in Singapore slated to begin next week, the Pentagon said Friday.
Austin will attend the Shangri-La Dialogue set to take place from May 31-June 2, during which he will join the three-way meeting with the Asian allies, and bilateral meetings with China's Minister of National Defense Adm. Dong Jun and other counterparts, according to the Department of Defense.
His trip comes as tensions persisted in the region over China's military exercises encircling Taiwan this week and apparent signs of North Korea preparing to launch another military reconnaissance satellite, as well as Russia's prolonged war in Ukraine.
At the security forum, Austin plans to deliver plenary remarks. He is also set to meet Singapore's new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and other senior Singaporean officials and convene a multilateral meeting with his counterparts from Southeast Asia, according to the department.
"Secretary Austin's tenth trip to the Indo-Pacific comes as the Department of Defense continues to strengthen U.S. relationships with allies and partners in support of a shared regional vision for peace, stability, and deterrence," the department said in a release.
In Cambodia, the secretary will meet with senior officials following his 2022 visit to Phnom Penh for a regional gathering of defense ministers.
Austin will conclude his trip in France, where he will mark the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings in 1944 during World War II.
This file photo, released by the Associated Press, shows Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin attending a hearing of the Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Defense on Capital Hill in Washington on May 8, 2024. (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 25, 2024
5. Trade, not N. Korea nukes, on agenda for talks between China, South Korea and Japan
No surprise.
Trade, not N. Korea nukes, on agenda for talks between China, South Korea and Japan
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/trade-not-n-korea-nukes-on-agenda-for-china-s-korea-japan-talks
A TV news segment in Seoul featuring (from left) South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang on May 23. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
UPDATED MAY 25, 2024, 06:24 PM
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SEOUL – South Korea, Japan and China will likely skip tricky geopolitics and tackle trade, supply chain stability and visa-free tourism instead as they convene in Seoul for their first summit in five years.
President Yoon Suk-yeol will meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the South Korean capital on May 27, with a slew of bilateral meetings the day before.
Despite North Korea conducting ever-more advanced weapons tests and China staging military drills around Taiwan, experts expect the summit to ignore security issues and seek common ground for easy diplomatic wins.
It will be important for all sides to show “they are committed to maintaining the momentum for cooperation”, Asan Institute for Policy Studies research fellow Lee Dong-gyu told AFP.
The problem is that “the political positions of the three countries differ significantly”, he said, pointing to increasingly close ties that Seoul and Tokyo have with China’s arch-rival Washington.
The three countries have starkly “divergent stances” on key issues, including Pyongyang’s nuclear threats and growing ties with Russia, making it almost impossible to form a consensus, Dr Lee said.
As a result, and to ensure the trilateral meeting is a success, “these topics would not be addressed and they would rather vaguely talk about and emphasise the cooperation of the three countries”, he said.
‘Squeezing out’ cooperation
Mr Yoon, who took office in 2022, has sought to bury the historical hatchet with former colonial power Japan in the face of rising threats from the nuclear-armed North.
China, North Korea’s largest trading partner and a key diplomatic ally, has previously resisted condemning Pyongyang for weapons testing, instead criticising joint US-South Korea military drills.
It is likely that Beijing will once again resist pressure from Tokyo and Seoul to do more to rein in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, experts say.
“Nothing substantial will come out of the summit in terms of security,” Mr Daisuke Kawai, deputy director of the University of Tokyo’s economic security research programme, told AFP.
But the thaw in Seoul-Tokyo ties has left China “increasingly viewing the two governments as united in their measures against Beijing”, he said, and a key motivation for the meeting will be to “soften that dynamic and tension”.
Seoul and Tokyo are “worried about a further escalation of military tensions in East Asia, especially with a Taiwan crisis in mind”, he said, meaning their relationship with Beijing will be crucial.
So the leaders will seek topics they can all agree on, such as cooperation on regional disaster response and boosting trade, Mr Kawai said.
Japan and China are also “especially keen” to resume visa-free travel, he said, and are “squeezing out possible ways to cooperate”.
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Difficult to resolve
An official from Seoul’s presidential office said North Korea-related issues “are difficult to resolve cleanly and quickly in a short time”, so the summit will focus more on economic cooperation.
“A joint declaration is currently being discussed,” he said, adding that Seoul will try to include security issues “to a certain extent”.
Mr Kishida’s administration has long been eager for a top-level meeting with Mr Kim, something Pyongyang has rebuffed due largely to tensions over the kidnapping of Japanese people in the 1970s and 1980s.
There is unlikely to be a breakthrough on the issue even if Tokyo brings it up, said Dr Kang Jun-young, a Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
“China is focused on maintaining its diplomatic relationship with North Korea and is likely to argue that the abductee issue is a bilateral problem,” Dr Kang said.
One area where Seoul and Tokyo may find themselves at odds is a business dispute over ownership of popular messaging app Line, developed by South Korea’s Naver and which is now under pressure from Tokyo to sell its controlling share in Japan.
“This issue, arguably more so than historical issues, has sparked a rise in anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korea,” Dr Kim Dae-jong, a professor of business administration at Sejong University in Seoul, told AFP.
Being tough on Line ownership might help Mr Kishida at home but “it could be detrimental in the long run if relations with South Korea – a key ally of the United States and a popular tourist destination for Japanese people – deteriorate”, he said. AFP
6. S. Korea completes development of L-SAM defense system
S. Korea completes development of L-SAM defense system | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 25, 2024
SEOUL, May 25 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has completed development of the homegrown Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM) system, the state arms procurement agency said Saturday, marking a major step in efforts to bolster the military's air defense capabilities.
The L-SAM, which is designed to shoot down incoming targets at altitudes of 50-60 kilometers, was recently assessed as combat-suitable as it met the military's technical requirements, according to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA).
With the completion of its development, the L-SAM is expected to begin production next year and be deployed for operations by 2028.
Once deployed, the L-SAM is expected to play a key role in the country's multilayered missile shield, called the Korea Air and Missile Defense.
The military currently operates the homegrown Medium-range Surface-to-Air Missile system and the U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability-3 system to intercept incoming missiles at lower altitudes than the L-SAM.
For targets at higher altitudes, the country has so far relied on the U.S. Forces Korea's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system that can defend against upper-tier threats at altitudes of 40-150 km.
The military is currently developing a Block-II version of the L-SAM designed to intercept targets at altitudes higher than the current one.
This undated file photo, provided by the defense ministry, shows an interception test of the Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile system. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 25, 2024
7. U.S. girding for possibility of N. Korea taking most provocative military actions in decade near election: NBC
We will probably see more of this speculation in the coming months.
U.S. girding for possibility of N. Korea taking most provocative military actions in decade near election: NBC | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 25, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 24 (Yonhap) -- U.S. officials are bracing for North Korea to potentially take its "most provocative" military action in a decade ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, possibly at the urging of Russian President Vladimir Putin, NBC News reported Friday.
Citing six senior U.S. officials, the broadcaster also said that the United States has contingency plans to respond in the event of Pyongyang taking aggressive action in the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas, or shelling South Korean border islands -- belligerence unseen since 2010.
"We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It's just a matter of how escalatory it is," a U.S. intelligence official was quoted by NBC News as saying.
It said that the U.S. officials believe the timing of the North's provocation could be designed to "create turmoil in yet another part of the world," as the presidential race is set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The prediction on the possible election-year provocations came as Putin is preparing for a visit to Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
This Sept. 14, 2023, image, taken from Korean Central Television footage, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang has come under international scrutiny as the North has provided Russia with munitions and missiles for use in Ukraine with Pyongyang thought to have received some forms of assistance in return.
U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing the North with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in return for Pyongyang's arms transfers, NBC News said, citing the officials.
"Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile," the report said.
Concerns have abounded in Seoul as well over the possibility of Pyongyang's saber-rattling. Some observers highlighted the plausibility of the North conducting high-intensity provocations similar to the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in 2010 or the shelling of the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong in the same year.
The broadcaster cited one senior U.S. official as saying, "We are going to be ready and prepared."
Another official said that Russia might hesitate to encourage the North to take actions designed to create an "October surprise" before the U.S. election, as China, a key partner for Russia, typically does not want regional instability.
Seoul, Washington and Tokyo have been paying close attention to the growing partnership among North Korea, Russia and China due to its security implications on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 25, 2024
8. Seoul to host series of summit meetings with Beijing and Tokyo
Seoul to host series of summit meetings with Beijing and Tokyo
donga.com
Posted May. 24, 2024 07:59,
Updated May. 24, 2024 07:59
Seoul to host series of summit meetings with Beijing and Tokyo. May. 24, 2024 07:59. by Kwan-Seok Jang jks@donga.com.
South Korea, China, and Japan will convene a series of high-level meetings in Seoul from May 26-27. The summit aims to restore trilateral cooperation and institutionalize regular meetings among the three nations, culminating in a joint declaration. This marks the first trilateral summit since December 2019 in Chengdu, China, a span of four years and five months. The global community is closely watching the scope of cooperation the three countries will propose amid heightened global competition, including the U.S.-China tariff war.
On Sunday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is scheduled to meet separately with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the Presidential Office in Yongsan. This visit by Premier Li, a close associate of Chinese President Xi Jinping, marks his first trip to South Korea since his appointment in March last year. Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Seoul is his first in a year.
The trilateral summit on Monday will produce a joint statement encompassing six key areas of cooperation: economic and trade collaboration, science and technology and digital transformation, human exchanges, sustainable development through climate change response, public health and aging population challenges, and disaster and safety management. “This summit will create future-oriented and practical cooperation momentum whose benefits can be felt by the peoples of all three countries,” said Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director of the National Security Office. “The joint declaration represents a consolidated commitment to cooperation from the three leaders.”
한국어
donga.com
9. N. Korea to convene key party meeting next month
N. Korea to convene key party meeting next month | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 25, 2024
SEOUL, May 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has decided to convene a key ruling party meeting next month to review progress in its ongoing projects for the first half of the year, state media reported Saturday.
The North's leader Kim Jong-un led a politburo meeting of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) on Friday, which decided to convene a plenary meeting of the party's central committee late next month, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"Kim Jong-un referred to the necessity to convene the Tenth Plenary Meeting of the Eighth WPK Central Committee, which will conduct an interim review of the work in the first half of this year," the KCNA said in an English-language dispatch.
Kim also called for the need to discuss and decide a series of "important" issues to implement the tasks decided at the eighth plenary meeting of the central committee last December, it said.
During the year-end session, the North's leader called for a "fundamental change" in dealing with South Korea, describing inter-Korean relations as one between "two hostile countries."
The politburo meeting also discussed other "important" issues in state affairs and the WPK, as well as received a report from the General Staff of the Korean People's Army on the recent military situation, according to the KCNA.
"The meeting advanced the immediate military action tasks for the DPRK armed forces to creditably defend the national sovereignty, security and interests, and underlined the need to responsibly carry them out," it said. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The meeting took place as the South's military said Friday it has detected apparent signs of the North making preparations to launch a military spy satellite at its launch site in the northwestern coast.
The North has vowed to launch three more spy satellites this year, after successfully placing its first one into orbit last November.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a politburo meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea on May 24, 2024, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 25, 2024
10. Korea-Japan-China summit Monday could be ‘turning point’ to normalized ties in Northeast Asia
Overly optimistic?
Thursday
May 23, 2024
Updated: 24 May. 2024, 11:08
Korea-Japan-China summit Monday could be ‘turning point’ to normalized ties in Northeast Asia
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-05-23/national/diplomacy/KoreaChinaJapan-summit-Monday-could-be-turning-point-to-normalized-ties-in-Northeast-Asia/2053494
Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo speaks on a trilateral summit bringing together the leaders of Korea, Japan and China over Sunday and Monday during a briefing at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul Thursday. [NEWS1]
South Korea, Japan and China will hold a long-stalled trilateral summit in Seoul on Monday, a meeting expected to serve as a stepping stone towards normalization of relations between the three Northeast Asian neighbors.
President Yoon Suk Yeol will host the three-way meeting, the first of its kind in four years and five months, inviting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang to the country for a two-day visit from Sunday, the presidential office announced Thursday. Korea is the current rotating chair.
"This summit will serve as a turning point for Korea, Japan and China to fully restore and normalize our trilateral cooperative system," Kim Tae-hyo, principal deputy national security adviser, said in a press briefing at the Yongsan presidential office.
"It will provide an opportunity to secure the momentum for future-oriented and practical cooperation that will enable the people of the three countries to feel tangible benefits."
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The summit, the ninth of its kind, will address six areas of cooperation: economy and trade; sustainable development and climate response; health and an aging society; science and technology in the age of digital transformation; disaster and safety management; and people-to-people exchanges.
The leaders are expected to issue a joint declaration afterwards to demonstrate their intent to pursue such cooperation. This statement is expected to lead discussions in lower-level consultative bodies and future cooperative projects among the three countries.
On Sunday afternoon, Yoon will hold separate bilateral talks with Li and Kishida at the Yongsan presidential office.
Later that evening, Yoon is scheduled to host an official welcome dinner for the three countries' delegations, including 80 business figures.
Yoon, Li and Kishida will hold a summit Monday morning. Later that day, they will attend and speak at a business forum involving the three countries.
The trilateral summit between the Northeast Asian countries, first launched in December 2008, was last held in Chengdu in December 2019, when China was the chair. The meeting, however, went on hiatus due to the Covid-19 pandemic and strained relations between Seoul and Tokyo over historical and trade issues.
The gathering comes as Seoul and Tokyo have normalized bilateral relations and aligned more closely with Washington in the past two years amid intensifying Sino-U.S. competition and Pyongyang's increased nuclear and missile threats.
The strengthened trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan was exemplified through the Camp David summit in August last year, juxtaposed to China, Russia and North Korea's stronger bonds in recent times.
The upcoming Seoul-Beijing-Tokyo summit is expected to provide an opportunity for the neighbors to seek cooperation in shared sectors, such as the economy, trade and health.
"Our government's ultimate goal for trilateral cooperation is to create an environment where the people of our three countries can trust each other, actively interact and work in healthy and safe environments," Kim said, stressing that promoting the economic development of all three countries lends way to improving such quality of life.
The Korea-China-Japan summit is also expected to be a venue to discuss ways to expand the scope of three-way cooperation to include tackling wider regional and global issues they can agree on.
This could include working together in the UN Security Council "to respond to complex global crises and contribute to peace and prosperity in the international community," Kim said.
It is unclear whether the leaders will discuss the matter of suspected arms transactions between North Korea and Russia, said a presidential official, noting that it will be difficult for Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing to come to an agreement on issues involving Pyongyang's denuclearization "in a short period of time."
In his bilateral talks with Li, Yoon is expected to discuss "regional and global issues, including the situation on the Korean Peninsula," according to Kim, as well as promoting strategic communication, expanding economic and trade cooperation, creating a favorable investment environment in China, expanding people-to-people and cultural exchanges, and discuss regional and global issues, including the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
This will be Li's first visit to Korea since taking office in March 2023. The Chinese premier traditionally attends the summit rather than the president.
Yoon's talks with Kishida will mark their first bilateral summit this year, after a series of meetings last year following the revival of bilateral shuttle diplomacy between the two countries' leaders in March 2023 as relations normalized.
He plans to exchange opinions with Kishida "on ways to promote substantive cooperation between the two countries," such as the situation on the Korean Peninsula, trilateral cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, and regional and global cooperation, including in the Indo-Pacific region, Kim said.
Yoon continues a flurry of diplomatic events in Seoul this month, following Korea's general election in April.
Last week, Yoon held a bilateral summit with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet in Seoul. He also co-hosted a virtual leader's session of the AI Seoul Summit alongside British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday.
Next week, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will make a state visit to Seoul on Tuesday and Wednesday.
His two-day trip will mark the first state visit to the country by a UAE president.
The two leaders are expected to discuss ways to strengthen cooperation in various sectors, including economic investment, energy, the defense industry and advanced technologies.
In January last year, Yoon made a state visit to the UAE, becoming the first foreign leader to do so since President Mohamed was inaugurated in May 2022.
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
11. [Wang Son-taek] Limits and chances from the limitless alliance (China- Russia)
[Wang Son-taek] Limits and chances from the limitless alliance
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · May 22, 2024
By Korea Herald
Published : May 23, 2024 - 05:30
Last week, the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing was held amid global attention. The summit became famous because it could serve as the starting point for changing the current international order, namely the unipolar order with the United States as the hegemon, into a multipolar order with China and Russia sharing the same status and power as the United States.
During the summit, the two leaders declared the beginning of a new era and shared an impressive hug while criticizing the US' hegemonic behavior. However, according to the meeting results, no specific action plan has been made regarding the change in the international order. The prevailing assessment showed considerable limitations, considering the two nations boasted an alliance with "no limits."
It might be a disappointing result from the camp against the US, but it is a relief for the other side. However, the US and its Western allies must analyze the diplomatic strategies of China and Russia that emerged through the talks. Fortunately, President Xi and Putin have relatively clearly exposed the direction and significant guidelines of their diplomatic strategy at the talks, helping the Western camp establish future diplomatic responses.
The most important part of the diplomatic strategy that Xi Jinping exposed is that he does not participate in the initiative to construct a new Cold War structure. Russia has been seen as actively considering organizing an anti-US alliance with North Korea to challenge the US hegemony directly. The anti-US solidarity is a diplomatic initiative that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been actively pursuing in recent years. Since Putin met with Kim in September last year, he has been making bold moves to provide support to North Korea. However, Xi has never signaled that he agrees with the proposal.
In the joint statement signed with Putin, Xi included that the two countries neither sought to form an alliance nor target a third country. He clearly confirmed that he would not agree with the idea of making another world against the US-led community. China's position is the same as that shown over the past few years. China is indeed under pressure from the US as it competes strategically with the US, and it has serious complaints about this. Nevertheless, China's departure from the US-led order would result in a loss far bigger than a profit, given the level of China's national development. The fact that Putin did not visit North Korea after finishing the China itinerary is also believed to reflect the position of Xi. When visiting North Korea, he has no choice but to emphasize anti-US solidarity, which has been burdensome to exclude China.
During his visit to China, Putin did not hide his fawning attitude toward Xi to the extent that he was criticized for being obsequious in receiving China's economic, diplomatic and military support. This shows that the financial and military difficulties caused by the war against Ukraine are pretty severe.
President Xi Jinping's second diplomatic strategy direction is unique because it contradicts the first guideline. China will continue to cooperate economically with Russia, which has decisively deviated from the US-led order. While China does not challenge the US-led order on its own, it has indirectly contributed to undermining it by supporting Russia. In the same vein, China continues its role as a background sponsor for North Korea, which is directly challenging the US-led order.
China has serious complaints about North Korea's blatant disregard for China's opposition to some of its moves, such as its nuclear weapons development program. However, since North Korea is playing a role in disrupting the US-led order, and it is in China's interest, China also supports North Korea.
Xi's third strategy direction is maintaining strategic competition with the United States for the time being. In the short term, China would refrain from provocative actions that include the meaning of a hegemonic war with the United States. Still, it will reject US hegemony and interference in the long run after raising its national power to a target level.
Xi will probably stay in defensive mode until time and conditions are advantageous, such as a politically meaningful period or the level of national power buildup. For instance, China would try to secure military strength to occupy Taiwan by 2027, achieve a nominal per capita income of $20,000 by 2035, and secure military posture to win an all-out war with the United States by 2049. In that case, China will go beyond strategic competition with the US after 2027 or 2035 and may show a form of hegemonic competition by 2049.
The scenario in which China will ultimately challenge the US for hegemony is very inconvenient. However, just because he made a scenario, there is no guarantee that it will be accomplished 100 percent as Xi wants. It is important to remember that China has not developed as much as Xi has wanted over the past 12 years because it has used its national strategy in a different direction from the development flow of the world community. China's remarkable growth for more than 30 years since the respected leader Deng Xiaoping took power was due to its active participation in the development trend of the international community.
The good news is that President Xi would rather avoid the scenario of directly challenging the US within 2027 or 2035. The US and Western countries will have ample opportunity to persuade and entice China to become a partner country that respects democratic order and liberal norms. If China rejects the order and norms the West demands within that period, the Western camp may engage in deft sabotage to disrupt its economic development. Of course, the best scenario is to upgrade the world order and norms in a way that partially reflects China's demands and to actively incorporate China into the new order.
Wang Son-taek
Wang Son-taek is an adjunct professor at Sogang University. He is a former diplomatic correspondent at YTN and a former research associate at Yeosijae. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · May 22, 2024
12. Debate over S. Korea's nuclear option resurfaces amid NK's continuing threats
Let the genie fully out of the bottle. Let everyone go nuclear. (or even help everyone) (note sarcasm)
Excerpts:
According to a poll conducted from Dec. 15 to Jan. 10 by Gallup Korea and commissioned by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies, about 73 percent of respondents said South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons. Nine out of 10 respondents thought it would be impossible to denuclearize North Korea.
Some observers outside the country have also made comments suggesting that Seoul should consider developing its own nuclear arsenal in response to Pyongyang's nuclear weapons.
Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, said in a recent interview with Yonhap News Agency that he wouldn't rule out South Korea's nuclear armament, noting that the U.S. wouldn't protect South Korea from a North Korean nuclear attack if that meant "losing multiple American cities."
Adrian Lewis, a professor of military history at the University of Kansas, told the Chosun Ilbo that South Korea should consider developing its own nuclear weapons program as it is important for maintaining security on the Korean Peninsula.
The experts said South Korea needs to take a "step-by-step" approach to pursue nuclear weapons for self-defense
."The U.S. would strongly oppose nuclear-armed South Korea because it sends a very bad message to neighboring countries. It might prompt Japan and Taiwan to join the nuclear arms race in the Asia-Pacific region," Kwak said. "However, South Korea should take a stepwise approach, from revisiting issues like uranium enrichment and repossessing and revising the Korea-U.S. Nuclear Energy Agreement to possessing nuclear weapons."
Debate over S. Korea's nuclear option resurfaces amid NK's continuing threats
The Korea Times · May 25, 2024
President Yoon Suk Yeol and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden shake hands during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, in this April 26, 2023 photo. EPA-Yonhap
Experts say Seoul needs to take 'step-by-step' approach for self defense
By Kwak Yeon-soo
The debate over South Korea's nuclear option is resurfacing in the face of North Korea advancing its nuclear and missile programs. Some politicians and academics are becoming more vocal about their belief that South Korea should possess nuclear weapons for self-defense.
Those who support Seoul's nuclear option say the United States' extended deterrence may weaken as Pyongyang's nuclear and missile capabilities become more sophisticated.
In April last year, South Korea and the U.S. signed the Washington Declaration, which highlights Washington's enhanced commitment to its extended deterrence offered to Seoul against Pyongyang's evolving nuclear threats. Both agreed to form a Nuclear Consultative Group, through which the two sides will discuss nuclear and strategic planning in response to North Korea's possible attack.
However, South Korea cannot rely on security promises from the U.S. in perpetuity because the Washington Declaration is a mere agreement between President Yoon and President Biden, Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy at the Sejong Institute, noted.
"It may no longer be effective if the U.S. president changes. Also, a declaration doesn't have a legally binding effect," Cheong said.
He added that the U.S. is more concerned about restraining China than North Korea, and thus, South Korea should not depend entirely on the U.S. extended deterrence.
"Relying on the goodwill of the U.S. president in the face of North Korea's blatant nuclear threats is dangerous," he said.
According to Cheong, U.S. public opinion has steadily turned against defending South Korea. According to a poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in September 2023, only 50 percent of respondents favored using U.S. troops to defend South Korea in the event of an invasion, down from 63 percent in 2021 and 55 percent last year.
Kwak Gil-sup, the president of One Korea Center and adjunct professor at Kookmin University's Unification and Convergence Program, said South Korea should seriously consider building its own nuclear weapons in time as the North's threats of using tactical nuclear weapons are becoming increasingly explicit.
"We should prepare for the post-Biden era. It's too late to start discussing South Korea's nuclear option if Trump is re-elected," Kwak said.
He noted that Yoon has made considerable progress in seeking extended deterrence against North Korea, but South Korea needs to gain further nuclear assurances from the U.S. or otherwise consider its own nuclear option.
"The U.S. has opposed the idea of South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons because of its commitment (to the Non-Proliferation Treaty) and the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons," Kwak said.
"However, situations change. North Korea has put us in a more dangerous place since last year when the Camp David summit took place and missile capabilities became more advanced. So we should not settle for the way things are right now, but seek further nuclear assurances from allies and acquire nuclear weapons."
A photo released by the North Korean Central News Agency shows missiles launched during a simulated nuclear counterattack drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea, April 22. EPA-Yonhap
Earlier this month, Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun of the ruling People Power Party joined the discussion, saying that South Korea should independently seek nuclear armament in the possibility of Donald Trump winning another term.
"If Trump is re-elected, the U.S. policy on North Korea might change from eliminating the North's nuclear weapons to managing them by preventing nuclear proliferation," he wrote on Facebook, May 2. "In the sake of right to minimum self-defense, it's time for us to consider possessing nuclear weapons in dealing with North Korea's nuclear capability."
South Korea's public sentiment in several opinion polls has been leaning toward the country possessing its own weapons program.
According to a poll conducted from Dec. 15 to Jan. 10 by Gallup Korea and commissioned by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies, about 73 percent of respondents said South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons. Nine out of 10 respondents thought it would be impossible to denuclearize North Korea.
Some observers outside the country have also made comments suggesting that Seoul should consider developing its own nuclear arsenal in response to Pyongyang's nuclear weapons.
Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, said in a recent interview with Yonhap News Agency that he wouldn't rule out South Korea's nuclear armament, noting that the U.S. wouldn't protect South Korea from a North Korean nuclear attack if that meant "losing multiple American cities."
Adrian Lewis, a professor of military history at the University of Kansas, told the Chosun Ilbo that South Korea should consider developing its own nuclear weapons program as it is important for maintaining security on the Korean Peninsula.
The experts said South Korea needs to take a "step-by-step" approach to pursue nuclear weapons for self-defense.
"The U.S. would strongly oppose nuclear-armed South Korea because it sends a very bad message to neighboring countries. It might prompt Japan and Taiwan to join the nuclear arms race in the Asia-Pacific region," Kwak said. "However, South Korea should take a stepwise approach, from revisiting issues like uranium enrichment and repossessing and revising the Korea-U.S. Nuclear Energy Agreement to possessing nuclear weapons."
The Korea Times · May 25, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
| 
