Quotes of the Day:

"The opinion of 10,000 men is of no value if none of them knows anything about the subject."

- Marcus Aurelius

"More is lost by indecision than wrong decision."

- Marcus Tullius Cicero

"Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted."

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

1.  Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: May - Korea

2. U.S.-South Korea pact risks a more aggressive North Korea

3. Samsung Is a Case Study in How Manufacturers Leave China

4. Deterrence, reassurance, and can kicking: The Washington Declaration

5. South Korea, US set to start largest-ever live-fire military drills

6. [ANALYSIS] Why Yoon is final piece in Washington-Seoul-Tokyo jigsaw

7. Yoon-Kishida summit to discuss national security, high-tech industries

8. China’s exports to North surge close to 2019 levels

9. N. Korea steps up criticism of S. Korea-U.S. deterrence plan

10. No Wonder Korea's Birthrate Is So Low

11. U.S. working with S. Korea, Japan to address N. Korea's human rights violations

12. N. Korean security agency commends agents for misinformation operation in China

13. North Korea orders citizens to read 10,000 pages of propaganda this year

14. Washington signals support for South Korean chipmakers in US battle with China

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: May - Korea

KOREA

https://www.fdd.org/policy-tracker/2023/05/03/biden-administration-foreign-policy-tracker-may/#Korea

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

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North Korea conducted a single missile provocation in April, testing a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time. Dubbed the Hwasong-18, the missile is assessed to be capable of reaching the continental United States.

ROK and U.S. forces continued to conduct combined military exercises to ensure readiness. These included naval and Marine maneuvers, a 12-day air exercise, and trilateral missile defense cooperation with Japan.

On April 25-26, President Biden hosted South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol for a state visit to honor the 70th anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance. They signed the Washington Declaration, which aims to enhance U.S. extended deterrence of North Korea, including through the periodic deployment of a U.S. ballistic missile submarine to Pusan. The Washington Declaration also establishes a bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group and pledges that Seoul will remain non-nuclear. However, some conservatives in South Korea are criticizing the agreement because they want South Korea to develop a nuclear deterrent of its own.

During a joint press conference, Biden reinforced extended deterrence by reaffirming the U.S. policy that North Korean nuclear use against the United States or its allies would spell the end of the Kim regime. In addition to the declaration, Biden and Yoon signed a Joint Statement that heralded their “Global Comprehensive Strategic Alliance.” They also inked 23 memorandums of understanding on technology cooperation. Finally, Yoon gave a very well-received address to a joint session of Congress, in which he emphasized the alliance’s regional and global role and the danger authoritarian regimes pose to democracy.

2. U.S.-South Korea pact risks a more aggressive North Korea

Soo Kim is one of the few analysts who put the blame solely where it belongs: on Kim Jong Un and the Kim family regimes.

Excerpts:

Similarly, Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst and policy practice area lead at LMI Consulting, highlighted that North Korea has long been set on a path of aggression and weapons development. "Extended deterrence or not, Kim is set on pursuing the path he carved out for his country's nuclear development," she says.

"So long as Kim continues to conduct weapons tests and threatens the security of the region," Soo Kim said, "tensions will remain."

U.S.-South Korea pact risks a more aggressive North Korea

Pyongyang has lashed out at deal to deploy U.S. strategic assets to East Asia

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/U.S.-South-Korea-pact-risks-a-more-aggressive-North-Korea

GABRIELA BERNAL, Contributing writer

May 2, 2023 14:43 JST

SEOUL -- After South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden reached a landmark agreement at their recent summit, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korea's leader, said the two had "reconfirmed the hostility of the rulers and military warmongers of Washington and Seoul towards our country."

She also warned that the deal, called the Washington Declaration, "will only result in making peace and security of Northeast Asia and the world be exposed to more serious danger."

At the summit, Biden and Yoon issued a statement outlining the Nuclear Consultative Group, a new channel through which the two sides are to discuss the possible use of U.S. nuclear weapons to protect South Korea from the danger posed by North Korea.

Behind the deal is growing trepidation in South Korea about its neighbor's growing nuclear arsenal. There also had been rumblings from Yoon and other politicians about the South possibly developing its own nuclear weapons.

In Washington, Yoon agreed to refrain from moves to establish a nuclear program and said the agreement paves the way for South Korea and the U.S. to "achieve peace through the superiority of overwhelming forces and not a false peace based on the goodwill of the other side."

Seoul and Washington say their agreement will help the allies share information on nuclear and strategic weapon plans in response to North Korea's provocations and to conduct regular consultations on joint military operations. The leaders also announced that the deployment of U.S. strategic assets to South Korea "will be made constantly and routinely."

Yoon and Biden celebrated their agreement as a deepening of their countries' alliance. Since returning home, Yoon's approval rating has increased by 1.9 percentage points.

However, in the near term, the agreement could have the effect of creating more regional tensions, as attempting to strengthen extended deterrence by deploying more heavy weaponry to the Korean Peninsula risks further antagonizing Pyongyang, analysts say.

John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, argues that the Washington Declaration "makes no effort to initiate a process of tension reduction with North Korea." To the contrary, Delury says the declaration is "not going to make any progress for peace since that's not even on the list of goals."

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (left) and U.S. President Joe Biden exit the Oval Office on their way to hold a joint news conference at the White House in Washington on April 26. © Reuters

Biden called the declaration "a prudent step to reinforce extended deterrence" and warned that a nuclear attack by North Korea against the U.S. or its allies would be "unacceptable" and would "result in the end" of that regime.

Jenny Town, director of the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center in the U.S., says that the North Koreans will use this declaration "to further justify their choices on development of weapons of mass destruction and try to boost domestic support for further development on this track despite a difficult economic situation."

As to what actions the world can expect from North Korea in the coming weeks or months, Town mentions "further demonstrations of intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities, work to prepare for and/or launch a reconnaissance satellite, further testing of the Experimental Light Water Reactor as a way to increase nuclear material production long term, and likely some kind of operational/missile deployment drills in the short term."

Kim Yo Jong also hinted at a backlash, saying that North Korea's exercise of self-defense will become stronger in response to military actions taken by the U.S. and South Korea.

Nevertheless, Delury cautions against seeing North Korea's next moves as tied directly to the Biden-Yoon agreement. "Not everything in the coming weeks and months will be a reaction to the summit since the summit and the Washington Declaration are more expressions of a process that has clearly been underway [for some time]," adding that current U.S. and South Korean policies are "helping to keep North Korea on its current course."

Similarly, Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst and policy practice area lead at LMI Consulting, highlighted that North Korea has long been set on a path of aggression and weapons development. "Extended deterrence or not, Kim is set on pursuing the path he carved out for his country's nuclear development," she says.

"So long as Kim continues to conduct weapons tests and threatens the security of the region," Soo Kim said, "tensions will remain."

3. Samsung Is a Case Study in How Manufacturers Leave China

Samsung Is a Case Study in How Manufacturers Leave China

Company still has significant operations in China but its smartphone manufacturing business pulled up stakes years ago

By Jacky WongFollow

May 3, 2023 9:17 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/samsung-is-a-case-study-in-how-manufacturers-leave-china-5dcb2dcf?page=1

“De-risking” is the latest buzzword describing Western governments’ strategy toward China. While it sounds less ambitious than “decoupling,” the basic idea is similar: reducing reliance on China for manufacturing, especially for key technological goods.

Driven by both geopolitics and commercial needs, the trend seems likely to pick up further steam: Even Apple AAPL -0.65%decrease; red down pointing triangle, the most visible beneficiary of the “made in China” phenomenon in the tech space, is starting to push its suppliers more aggressively toward India and other alternatives. But the practicalities of even a partial move away from China-based manufacturing are daunting.

Luckily there is at least one conspicuous example of a major high-technology company that has successfully relocated large parts of its production apparatus: Samsung Electronics SSNHZ 0.00%increase; green up pointing triangle, the global electronics giant and Apple’s smartphone rival.

Samsung still has significant operations in China, including for its crucial memory chip business. But from a head-count perspective, it has been edging away from China for years. The company had over 60,000 employees in China in 2013 according to its 2014 Sustainability Report, but that number had fallen to less than 18,000 by 2021. Samsung closed its last smartphone factory there in 2019.

Lower labor costs in other Asian countries are a big draw. But geopolitics was probably also an important factor. In 2016 and 2017 Beijing and Seoul became embroiled in a major diplomatic spat over South Korea’s plan to host a high-tech U.S. missile defense radar system. In an early preview of the coercive economic tactics that China has employed against a widening range of countries in recent years, Beijing effectively forced the sale of Korean conglomerate Lotte Group’s China supermarket business and curtailed tourist visits to Korea.

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The $53 billion Chips Act seeks to end the U.S.’s reliance on foreign-made semiconductors, especially those used by the Pentagon. It’s the latest example of the federal government using its cash to remake an industry it sees as crucial to national security.

One result is that as Apple and other big manufacturers increasingly scope out Vietnam and India, Samsung is already there in spades—which could add up to a significant competitive advantage given the difficulties of replicating China’s scale abroad. Vietnam, for example, has a population of around 100 million. But China’s Guangdong province alone has over 125 million.

Samsung is now Vietnam’s largest foreign investor. It accounted for nearly a fifth of the country’s total exports last year. The company has also invested big in India: the country accounts for around 20% to 30% of Samsung’s smartphone production, according to Morgan Stanley.

The fact that the world’s largest smartphone maker has managed to ditch China may offer some comfort for other companies looking to “de-risk.” But Samsung’s success was also related to market factors that could be hard for Apple, for example, to replicate. Samsung’s smartphone market share in China was battered in the mid-2010s: Strong competition from Chinese companies such as Xiaomi that make comparable Android smartphones with affordable prices was one major reason.

On the other hand, Samsung is the top-selling brand in India and Southeast Asia—meaning it can produce and sell a big chunk of its output in the same places. Apple, with its high prices and premium focus, could struggle to achieve that, especially in price-conscious India.

Another issue for both Apple and Samsung is that even if the final assembly of gadgets is moved outside of China, manufacturers will still depend on many suppliers there. During the height of the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak in China, Samsung also found itself scrambling to secure suddenly-scarce Chinese components. Chinese suppliers have moved rapidly up the value chain in recent years and now make many high-tech electronic components, too.

Samsung’s success in relocating its smartphone business is instructive—but it also had a major first mover advantage and a product mix suitable to lower income Asian nations. Others will now try to follow in its footsteps, at least in part. But for Apple and many other top manufacturers, China will loom large in the global supply chain for a long time.

Write to Jacky Wong at jacky.wong@wsj.com

Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the May 4, 2023, print edition as 'Samsung Is a Case Study in How to Leave China'.

4. Deterrence, reassurance, and can kicking: The Washington Declaration

An incorrect diagnosis of the disease and a prescription for failure (and conflict)

The problem is not nuclear weapons. The problem is the Kim family regime's rule over north Korea. The prescription is not arms control negotiation. That will cause Kim to assess his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies a success and will not lead to any kind of agreement that will protect the ROK and US. It will more likely lead to conflict. We need a strategy that is not based on arms control but instead on solving the "Korea question."

Excerpts:

The Washington Declaration treats a symptom but not the underlying disease. Without constraints on North Korea’s nuclear program, Kim Jong-un will continue to expand his arsenal, which, in turn, will undermine credibility in U.S. extended deterrence commitments and prompt South Korea to seek more reassurances. Staying stuck on the treadmill of constant reassurances would be familiar to the U.S., but it is not a good use of U.S. power over the long term.

Instead of trying to fill the bottomless pit of reassuring South Korea, the U.S. should back down from its unrealistic expectation of denuclearizing North Korea and instead attempt to restrain Kim’s nuclear arsenal via arms control. This would be a difficult process, to be sure, but without a course correction the Washington Declaration will only kick the can of reassurance down the road until the next crisis of confidence in U.S. extended deterrence commitments.

Deterrence, reassurance, and can kicking: The Washington Declaration

BY ERIC GOMEZ, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 04/30/23 7:00 PM ET

The Hill · by Sharon Udasin · April 30, 2023

On April 26, the United States and South Korea marked the 70th anniversary of their alliance by announcing the Washington Declaration, which opens a new chapter in the alliance’s approach to extended deterrence. South Korea expressed its “full confidence” in U.S. commitments and reaffirmed that it will not pursue its own nuclear weapons in exchange for greater high-level participation in U.S. nuclear planning to respond to North Korea.

The Washington Declaration never mentions the word “reassurance,” but the policies it sets forth are much better understood as reassurance measures rather than deterrence measures. Moreover, the new declaration will do nothing to resolve the underlying forces that prompted its creation in the first place.

The phrase “extended deterrence” describes the U.S. using its nuclear arsenal to prevent attacks against its allies. Extended deterrence has an important nonproliferation component as well, as the protection offered by U.S. nuclear weapons is supposed to dissuade allies from acquiring their own nuclear weapons. On the modern-day Korean peninsula, U.S. extended deterrence is primarily geared toward preventing a North Korean attack, nuclear or conventional, against South Korea.

A perennial challenge to U.S. extended deterrence commitments is the credibility problem. When the U.S. extends its nuclear umbrella it is making a promise to use its nuclear weapons to protect territory that is not its own.

That is a very bold claim to make, especially when the threatening country—in this case North Korea—can threaten U.S. territory with nuclear attack. Allies understandably fear that if push came to shove, the U.S. may not make good on its promises since its territory is not at stake. Reassuring allies that the U.S. will live up to its commitments is thus an important part of extended deterrence, and arguably more difficult than deterring the adversary.

The dynamics on the Korean peninsula leading up to the Washington Declaration illustrate how reassurance is difficult even if deterrence is easy. Preventing a North Korean attack against South Korea should be straightforward. The U.S. and South Korea field large and very capable militaries, and the U.S. has a massive advantage over North Korea in nuclear forces. Pyongyang knows that it is in a much weaker position, that it cannot hope to survive against a concerted effort to destroy it, and it has leaned heavily into a nuclear strategy that emphasizes going first and going quickly if it detected an imminent attack.

In January 2021, North Korea held a major meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party in which Kim Jong-un set forth a plan to add new types of capabilities to the country’s nuclear arsenal. The next year saw a worsening spiral of tension on the peninsula. North Korea started testing more missiles, Seoul and Washington restarted large-scale military exercises that were previously halted to incentivize diplomacy, and Pyongyang responded with even more missile activity. In January 2023, South Korea’s president Yoon Suk-yeol said continued North Korean provocations could prompt Seoul to acquire nuclear weapons or push the U.S. to strengthen its extended deterrence commitment.

The Washington Declaration is an attempt to satiate South Korea’s desire for stronger reassurances from the U.S. and put recent calls for a South Korean nuclear weapon to rest. It will probably work, but the question is for how long.

The declaration mentions displays of U.S. “strategic assets” such as an upcoming port visit of a ballistic missile submarine to South Korea. These displays are likely to prompt a strong North Korean reaction based on the North’s recent behavior of reacting to joint U.S.-South Korea military drills with their own missile exercises. The consultative procedures established in the Washington Declaration might prevent a tit-for-tat escalation in tensions that forces Seoul to seek even more reassurances, but it is not a foregone conclusion.

How to end Texas’s dismantling of the administrative state To compete with China, the US must embrace multilateral diplomacy

The Washington Declaration treats a symptom but not the underlying disease. Without constraints on North Korea’s nuclear program, Kim Jong-un will continue to expand his arsenal, which, in turn, will undermine credibility in U.S. extended deterrence commitments and prompt South Korea to seek more reassurances. Staying stuck on the treadmill of constant reassurances would be familiar to the U.S., but it is not a good use of U.S. power over the long term.

Instead of trying to fill the bottomless pit of reassuring South Korea, the U.S. should back down from its unrealistic expectation of denuclearizing North Korea and instead attempt to restrain Kim’s nuclear arsenal via arms control. This would be a difficult process, to be sure, but without a course correction the Washington Declaration will only kick the can of reassurance down the road until the next crisis of confidence in U.S. extended deterrence commitments.

Eric Gomez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute.

The Hill · by Sharon Udasin · April 30, 2023

5. South Korea, US set to start largest-ever live-fire military drills

As an aside in the 1980s 2d Division conducted a time on target indirect fire attack from artillery to mortars. We participated with our 4.2 inch mortar platoon along with every indirect fire weapons system of the entire division.

South Korea, US set to start largest-ever live-fire military drills

The Korea Times · May 4, 2023

U.S. soldiers from the 2nd Infantry Division participate in the 2023 Best Squad competition at Camp Casey in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. South Korea and the U.S. plan to conduct their largest-ever live-fire exercises for three weeks starting May 25. Yonhap

By Jung Min-ho

South Korea and the United States will conduct their largest-ever live-fire military exercises for three weeks starting May 25, according to military officials, Thursday.

A diverse range of weapons systems, such as fighter jets, AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, multiple rocket launchers and K2 Black Panther tanks, are expected to be mobilized for the drills that will continue until June 15 at the Seungjin Fire Training Field in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province.

Speaking to reporters at a briefing, an official at the Ministry of National Defense said the drills are aimed at improving the allies' interoperability and readiness against intensifying security threats from North Korea.

"Marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of [South Korea's] armed forces and the 70th anniversary of the South Korea-U.S. alliance … The size [of the exercises] will likely be the largest ever," the official said.

In addition to firing drills, the militaries of the two countries have been planning scenario-based training exercises, including how to operate loitering munitions, also known as suicide drones, in the initial phases of a potential armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

"Under a scenario of North Korea making a provocation, South Korea and the U.S. will show how to finish their mission with their overwhelming capabilities in the shortest possible time while keeping the number of casualties to a minimum," another official said.

The ministry plans to invite government officials, members of the National Assembly's defense committee and representatives of major defense companies to the event.

The Joint Firing Destruction Drills have been conducted 11 times since 1977. Former President Park Geun-hye watched them in person at the training facility on Aug. 28, 2015, amid rising military tensions following North Korea's threat to destroy South Korea's loudspeakers set up near the inter-Korean border.

Tensions have been building again over the past week since President Yoon Suk Yeol and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden announced the Washington Declaration, in which the two vowed to strengthen cooperation against North Korea's nuclear threats. In a rare direct warning to the regime, Biden said a nuclear attack on his country or its allies would immediately be met with a response that will end the long reign of the Kim family in the North.

North Korea denounced what was agreed during the Yoon-Biden summit in Washington, including the launch of the first official communication channel between Seoul and Washington over the use of U.S. nuclear weapons involving the Korean Peninsula.

In its latest condemnation, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said Thursday that the whole country had been "enraged with the will to destruct the enemies." It also blamed South Korea and the U.S. for carrying out joint exercises and vowed to continue to develop its nuclear weapons. Previously, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, threatened to take "more decisive" action against the allies.

But there have been no North Korean weapons tests since. Asked about the border situation, an official at the defense ministry said there were no notable signs.

The Korea Times · May 4, 2023

6. [ANALYSIS] Why Yoon is final piece in Washington-Seoul-Tokyo jigsaw

​Obviously domestic politics if President Yoon's foreign policy weakness.​

[ANALYSIS] Why Yoon is final piece in Washington-Seoul-Tokyo jigsaw

The Korea Times · May 4, 2023

File images of, from left, U.S. President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are displayed during a news program on a screen at Seoul Station, April 27. AP-Yonhap

Yoon needs to raise approval rating to sustain coordination on N. Korea, China and Indo-Pacific initiatives

By Kim Yoo-chul

South Korea has clearly shifted the political focus of its regional strategy to supporting "strategic clarity" from "strategic ambiguity." The key question now is what the deliverables will be from the policy transition and how the incumbent Yoon Suk Yeol administration will solidify its alignment with the rules-based international order.

Given Washington's focus on prioritizing President Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific strategy, the U.S. has been playing the role of facilitator in terms of improving Seoul-Tokyo relations to the greatest extent possible, as its alliances with South Korea and Japan are surely two of the most critical relationships in the world.

Within that context, from the U.S. standpoint, Seoul-Tokyo relations should not be dragged down by historical disputes, because maintaining a solid Washington-Tokyo-Seoul relationship would advance mutual interests in keeping the Indo-Pacific region free and open.

From left are Korea Society Policy Director Jonathan Corrado, Council on Foreign Relations' U.S.-South Korea Policy Program Director Scott A. Snyder and American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Zack Cooper. Courtesy of Corrado, Snyder, Cooper

Despite heavy domestic backlash, Yoon was the first to offer South Korea's decision to drop a demand that Japanese firms compensate South Korean victims of Japan's wartime forced labor. Plus, Seoul will establish a government-backed foundation with private companies making their financial contribution.

It remains uncertain whether Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will set Tokyo's position regarding the possibility of the Japanese companies' participation in the soon-to-be-established foundation during his two-day working visit to Seoul from May 7. Multiple opinion polls showed about 60 percent of South Koreans oppose Yoon's plan.

As the U.S. and South Korea celebrate the 70th anniversary of their alliance and 2023 also marks the first full year under the Joe Biden administration in Washington and the Yoon Suk Yeol administration in Seoul, Biden wanted to signal the final transition from an earlier period of relations under former presidents Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in, during which bilateral rifts and geopolitical uncertainty shook the foundations of the alliance to a degree not seen in decades.

From South Korea's standpoint, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, North Korea's evolving nuclear threats and China's military assertiveness in Northeast Asia ― particularly the ongoing pressure on Taiwan ― raised worries that the U.S. responding to China's military aggression against Taiwan could occupy Washington's resources, promoting North Korea to use that chance to possibly attack Seoul.

"South Korea's consideration of nuclear options is Seoul's message to Washington hoping to get the U.S.' firm security assurances. This was a key prerequisite for the Yoon administration before acting and taking political risks when it comes to the improvement of Seoul-Tokyo ties," a senior aide who handled Seoul's East Asian policies under Moon, the former president, told The Korea Times.

"As Washington views President Yoon as the final piece in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo jigsaw, Biden has to show his full appreciation of Yoon's intent to take huge political risks in resolving historical disputes between Seoul and Tokyo by offering a set of controversial measures to Japan."

In this photo provided by the South Korean defense ministry, from top left, U.S. FA-18, F-35B, F-16 fighter jets, KC-135 tanker, and Republic of Korea Air Force F-15K, KF-16 and F-35A fighter jets fly over South Korea during a joint air drill, April 21. AP-Yonhap

Jonathan Corrado, a policy director at the New York-based nonpartisan think tank, Korea Society, assessed that the Washington Declaration is not intended to provide security reassurances, because he views it will genuinely give South Korea "more insight and input" into the thinking around the use of nuclear weapons.

"The U.S. could involve South Korea more in the strategic decision-making process around potential nuclear use and it seems like there will be special attention paid to increased coordination on extended deterrence during the summit. South Korea's independent acquisition of a nuclear deterrent is unlikely to affect Kim Jong-un's strategic calculus in the short term," Corrado said, adding that the development of South Korea's own independent nuclear arsenal could strain Washington-Seoul relations by stoking concerns about unintended escalation.

"South Korea should consider the downsides of nuclearization that some experts have pointed to, including damage to the global nonproliferation regime, a potential hit to South Korea's civilian nuclear industry, and the tremendous?costs of developing nuclear weapons. The way to address North Korea's threat is through strengthening alliance capabilities, information sharing, consultation and tabletop exercises," the director said.

Need to secure solid public support

Now, Yoon and his administration are pressured to improve public perceptions of its foreign policy agenda, because when it comes to South Korea's relations with the U.S., Japan, China and North Korea, it's fair to say that there is a high degree of domestic political polarization.

Maintaining a high approval rating, therefore, matters the most as Yoon and his administration's foreign policies are normally affected by South Korean public opinion, according to Scott A. Snyder, a director of the U.S.-South Korea Policy Program at the New York-headquartered Council on Foreign Relations.

A low approval rating is not always a key constraint in terms of a state leader's ability to move forward with foreign policy initiatives. But if Yoon's job approval rating remains continuously low, it could make his administration much more cautious in managing and even handling key diplomatic challenges that are domestically sensitive.

Yoon's approval rating has stagnated to the upper 20-percent and low 30-percent range since he was elected a year ago.

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a meeting at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, March 16. Reuters-Yonhap

"Washington officials want to avoid a high degree of domestic political polarization regarding South Koreans' growing request to go nuclear. The Washington Declaration is aimed at addressing South Korean concerns about extended deterrence. But because both ruling and opposition parties will have to go into election mode, which will happen April 10 next year, if Yoon fails to increase his approval rating, then this will affect the results of next year's scheduled election and it's also possible for Yoon to turn toward hawkish in nuclear options to avoid political paralysis," the aide said.

A 2022 poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs showed that more than 70 percent of South Koreans support the idea of their country possessing its own nuclear weapons.

The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has 169 seats, followed by the ruling People Power Party (PPP) with 115 seats in the National Assembly. The DPK's popularity rating stood at around 35 percent, followed by the PPP between 31 percent and 33 percent, multiple poll results showed.

"You are grappling with the costs of independent nuclear acquisition. I believe the White House has indicated the two presidents intend to deepen joint nuclear planning for extended deterrence purposes and that the U.S. is offering its strongest statement in support of nuclear extended deterrence for South Korea and that South Korea is reiterating its commitment to uphold the NPT. We shall see whether this works," Snyder said. The NPT stands for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former U.S. official at the White House National Security Council, said the launch of the Nuclear Consultative Group is aimed primarily at dispelling South Koreans' concerns about the U.S.' level of security guarantee.

"Of course, Tokyo might seek similar assurances from Washington, but I think U.S. leaders will see these two issues as largely separate. Although of course it is easier for the United States to provide these assurances when its allies are getting along," he said.

Cooper stressed it does not make sense for Seoul to pursue a "nuclear sharing" deal seen as in NATO, as some NATO members actually have their own nuclear weapons. "The two arrangements are necessarily quite different, but the logic is similar since both are efforts by the U.S. to bolster confidence in extended deterrence after an adversary gains a secure second strike capabilities," he said.

The Korea Times · May 4, 2023

7. Yoon-Kishida summit to discuss national security, high-tech industries

Yoon-Kishida summit to discuss national security, high-tech industries | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · May 4, 2023

SEOUL, May 4 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are expected to discuss national security, high-tech industries and other issues of common concern during an upcoming summit, but it is unlikely for them to adopt a joint declaration, officials said Thursday.

Kishida is scheduled to arrive in Seoul on Sunday for a two-day working visit, marking the first bilateral visit by a Japanese leader since October 2011, as the two sides have been working to repair relations strained over issues stemming from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule.

"Prime Minister Kishida's visit is meaningful in marking the full-scale resumption of shuttle diplomacy," presidential spokesperson Lee Do-woon told reporters, referring to regular mutual visits by the two countries' leaders.

Resuming shuttle diplomacy was one of the agreements reached by Yoon and Kishida during their summit in Tokyo in March, following the Yoon administration's decision to compensate Korean victims of Japan's wartime forced labor without contributions from Japanese firms.

On Sunday, the two leaders plan to hold a small-group summit meeting and then an expanded summit before holding a joint press conference. Topics for their talks will include national security, high-tech industries, science and technology and cooperation in culture and youth sectors, Lee said.

But they are unlikely to issue a joint declaration after summit talks.

"There will be a joint press conference, but it is difficult to say any declaration will be coming (out of the summit)," an official said on condition of anonymity. "This is an issue that should be decided through consultations and summit talks."

Later Sunday, Yoon plans to host a dinner for Kishida that will also be joined by their wives. The Japanese TV network FNN reported earlier Thursday that the dinner is likely to take place at Yoon's official residence in Hannam-dong in central Seoul.

The Yoon-Kishida summit will come only days after Yoon held a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington last week and agreed on measures to strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to defend South Korea with all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

Lee Do-woon, a presidential spokesman, speaks during a press conference on May, 4 2023, on a planned summit between President Yoon Suk Yeol and visiting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · May 4, 2023

8. China’s exports to North surge close to 2019 levels

Thursday

May 4, 2023

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China’s exports to North surge close to 2019 levels

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/05/04/national/northKorea/korea-north-korea-china/20230504190404297.html

A freight train departing from China’s Dandong headed for North Korea’s Sinuiju on Sept. 26, 2022. [YONHAP]

Chinese exports to North Korea appear to be recovering to pre-pandemic levels.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs analyzed by the JoongAng Ilbo, the amount of rice and nitrogen fertilizers exported to the North from January to March this year has already exceeded the total export volume of those items in 2022.

China exported 29.16 million tons of rice to the North in the first three months of 2023, much more than the 23.89 million tons of rice it sent to the regime in 2022.

In the same period, China exported 7.02 million tons of ammonium sulfate, a material used in nitrogen fertilizers, more than the 7 million tons that China sent last year.

The total amount of trade between the two neighboring countries also seems to be approaching the levels of 2019 before Covid-19 spread.

From January to March, China’s total export to the North was $438.42 million, about 96.4 percent of the $454.92 million tallied in the first quarter of 2019.

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, exports jumped by 154 percent.

China’s total imports from the North during the same period, according to the Chinese customs agency, was $47.43 million, roughly 86.9 percent of the $54.59 million measured from January to March 2019.

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, imports increased by 102 percent.

Data showed China normally sold grains and fertilizers to the North, while the North mainly exported wigs, silicon and tungsten.

China’s largest export item was rice and cereal products, which amounted to $34.02 million in the first three months of this year.

The second largest was fertilizer materials such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, which amounted to $25.58 million. The third largest was processed wig materials, with a value of $22.64 million in exports.

North Korea mainly sold wigs and eyelash products, amounting to $17.98 million. Those were followed by silicon iron with $7.64 million, tungsten with $5.85 million and electricity with $4.84 million.

While North Korea recorded a trade deficit of nearly $1.4 billion with China during the pandemic from 2020 to 2022, serious imbalances were still seen earlier this year.

In the first quarter of 2023, the deficit reached about $39 million, more than half of last year’s $75.965 million.

Trade between the two countries, which has only been conducted by freight trains between China’s Dandong and North Korea’s Sinuiju, could soon expand into freight trucks.

The Voice of America reported Wednesday that satellite photos from Planet Labs, a U.S. satellite data company, showed busy activity at Dandong’s customs marshaling yard since the end of April. 

BY SHIN KYUNG-JIN [lee.sungeun@joongang.co.kr]

9. N. Korea steps up criticism of S. Korea-U.S. deterrence plan

I heard someone comment at an event yesterday that north Korea not only paid close attention to the summit but that it has more belief in the Washington Declaration than critics in South Korea and the US. This could be an indicator of how seriously the regime is taking the declaration.

(LEAD) N. Korea steps up criticism of S. Korea-U.S. deterrence plan | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · May 4, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS unification ministry official's remarks from para 7)

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, May 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korean workers and members of social groups have joined the North's criticism of a recent summit agreement between South Korea and the United States on strengthening U.S. extended deterrence, according to state media Thursday.

The working class and trade union members held a protest in the border city of Kaesong the previous day, saying that the whole country was "enraged with the will to destruct the enemies," according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The KCNA said participants slammed Seoul and Washington over their joint military drills and the deployment of strategic assets, saying that the recent "nuclear war scheme" laid bare to the world who is threatening peace and safety on the Korean Peninsula and the region.

In a separate dispatch, the KCNA reported that ranking members of the Socialist Women's Union of Korea and women workers held a meeting the previous day and "sternly pledged their determination for revenge."

The state media also reported slogans and propaganda material denouncing Seoul and Washington and encouraging people to take revenge against them were displayed across the country.

A throng of North Korean youths holds a protest rally at the Youth Park Open-Air Theatre in Pyongyang on March 22, 2023, over ongoing joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States on the Korean Peninsula, in this file photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The reports are the latest in Pyongyang's escalating criticism of Seoul and Washington following an agreement by President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden last week to strengthen Washington's extended deterrence against the North's threats.

In particular, the KCNA reported Wednesday that North Korean youths held a rally where participants burned an effigy depicting the "invaders and provocateurs," apparently referring to Yoon and Biden.

South Korea's unification ministry voiced regret over the report, saying the North "went too far."

"It is very regrettable that an action of criticism that goes too far, like the burning ceremony, was announced through official media," a ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

He said Pyongyang may have strongly denounced the outcome of the latest summit in a bid to tighten its reins over the North Korean public by highlighting external threats.

The North has yet to release photos of the purported burning ceremony, spawning speculation that the North may have only reported the event for means of propaganda without actually holding it.

"It is difficult to assess at this stage whether North Korea is attempting to control the extent of its expression of dissatisfaction or there are other factors to be considered," the ministry official said.

Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of the North's leader Kim Jong-un, issued the North's first response to the Yoon-Biden summit Saturday, warning Pyongyang could take "more decisive" action to deal with the change in the security environment.

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · May 4, 2023

10. No Wonder Korea's Birthrate Is So Low

No Wonder Korea's Birthrate Is So Low

english.chosun.com

May 04, 2023 13:06

Korea is the most expensive place to raise a child, according to a recent study by Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute. It costs 7.79 times per-capita GDP to bring up a child in Korea until the age of 18 or W365 million (US$1=W1,338).

China ranks second at 6.9 times per capita GDP, followed by Germany at 3.64 times and France at 2.24 times. In other words, it costs two to three times more to raise a child in Korea than in advanced countries. The high cost of course frightens couples off having kids. China is also plagued by the high cost of bringing up children, but Korea faces the biggest problem. China's total fertility rate still stood at 1.1 children last year, but the rate was only 0.78 in Korea.

Much of the blame must go to education costs. Last year, Koreans spent a staggering W26 trillion on private crammers for schoolkids, or W524,000 a month per child. Spending on private crammers had in fact declined from W21.6 trillion in 2009 to W17.8 trillion in 2015 thanks to more after-school classes in public schools and supplementary lessons on EBS TV. But it began to rise again during the Moon Jae-in administration.

Parents turn to private crammers when public education fails them, but there is also a pernicious knock-on effect when crammers prey on their anxieties and price classes into the stratosphere, while parents compete to keep up with the Joneses. Still, it is difficult to understand why taxes collected to support public schools increased from W32 trillion in 2010 to W75 trillion this year even as the school population declined by around 2 million since 2012. Per-capita tax for that purpose rose from W4.4 million to W14.26 million. If regional offices of education spend that much money on public schools, why are they not getting any better?

The government has frittered away W280 trillion to tackle the low birthrate since 2006 to no effect. Budget spending to deal with the low birthrate and improving education is clearly not going where it needs to. The first task is to identify the real problems before pouring more tax money down this bottomless pit.

Read this article in Korean

• Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com

english.chosun.com

11. U.S. working with S. Korea, Japan to address N. Korea's human rights violations

​At an event yesterday I heard comments again that focusing on human rights will prevent an agreement on denuclearization and will be considered a threat by Kim Jong Un and will prevent any kind of positive engagement. In addition to the moral imperative of human rights, north Korea's demand for normalization of relations can never be met without an end to the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. No international corporation accountable to shareholders pr the law in the US (or accountable to their home nation's laws) can invest in north Korea as long as north Korea continues to abuse human rights.

U.S. working with S. Korea, Japan to address N. Korea's human rights violations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 4, 2023

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Yonhap) -- The United States is working closely with South Korea and Japan to address human rights violations committed by North Korea, including the abduction of foreign nationals, a state department spokesperson said Wednesday.

The remarks came as Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman was set to meet with a group of Japanese officials and representatives of the Association of Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea.

State department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel is seen answering questions during a daily press briefing at the department in Washington on May 3, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

"The entirety of this department, including Deputy Secretary Sherman, continue to be deeply concerned about the human rights atrocities and violations that the DPRK partakes in, including the arbitrary detention and kidnapping of citizens," state department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told a daily press briefing.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

"And so this is something that we will continue to work in close concert with our allies and partners. Especially in the Indo-Pacific region, (we) continue to work closely with the Republic of Korea and Japan itself," added Patel, referring to South Korea by its formal name.

In February, the state department said Pyongyang remained one of only three countries to be designated a "state sponsor of terrorism" by the U.S. in 2021, partly citing the longstanding issue of Japanese nationals believed to have been abducted by the country in the 1970s and 1980s.

The state department had noted only five such abductees have been repatriated to Japan since 2002.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 4, 2023

12. N. Korean security agency commends agents for misinformation operation in China

"Ideological investigations." Those two words illustrate all that is wrong with the Kim family regime but it also explains how the regime survives. It is one of the many measures and techniques to prevent resistance to the rule of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts;

Additionally, the Ministry of State Security highly praised the operation, saying it was carried out in precise compliance with the ministry’s counter-espionage guidelines related to confusing state enemies through the use of fake materials and misinformation.

“The ministry ordered ideological investigations of the agents and informants based on their achievements in China and to replace agents who failed to achieve results,” the reporting partner said. “Some officials will likely be recalled.”

In short, the Ministry of State Security ordered preparations to be made to prevent agents and informants in China who failed to achieve results from disobeying recall orders or disappearing.

N. Korean security agency commends agents for misinformation operation in China

Agents and informants who failed to achieve results look set to be recalled

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2023.05.04 4:00pm

dailynk.com

CCTV camera in Jilin Province on the China-North Korea border. Image: Daily NK

The Ministry of State Security recently praised officials who successfully acquired funds for the agency through an operation involving the spread of false information in China, Daily NK has learned.

On Tuesday, a reporting partner in North Korea told Daily NK that the ministry recently conducted an operation to raise funds and expose leakers of information that involved spreading false information to informants working in China.

The ministry handed down commendations and rewards to those who produced outstanding results during the operation.

“[The operation] involved releasing information as bait, tracking down the people who leaked the fake information, and then tracing the path that the leaked information took,” the reporting partner said, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “The awards and commendations were given out to the counter-espionage officials in the border areas and security and informants in China who rendered a great service to the agency by generating revenue through sales of the fake documents during the operation.”

Depending on the degree of the accomplishment, the Ministry of State Security awarded first-class special promotions, Orders of the National Flag (2nd class, 3rd class), or posthumous medals for military service, along with gifts of rice and cooking oil.

Additionally, the Ministry of State Security highly praised the operation, saying it was carried out in precise compliance with the ministry’s counter-espionage guidelines related to confusing state enemies through the use of fake materials and misinformation.

“The ministry ordered ideological investigations of the agents and informants based on their achievements in China and to replace agents who failed to achieve results,” the reporting partner said. “Some officials will likely be recalled.”

In short, the Ministry of State Security ordered preparations to be made to prevent agents and informants in China who failed to achieve results from disobeying recall orders or disappearing.

“Security agents and intelligence officials based in China who have been engaged in surveilling defectors or disinformation activities have relationships with brokers and Chinese traders. The ministry has sent down orders to closely monitor anyone who makes frequent contact with brokers or Chinese traders and to immediately report them as a spy if it becomes clear they have crossed over to the enemy’s side.”

Moreover, the ministry ordered that potential escape routes be identified in advance and reported up the line given that people trying to escape could come under arrest by the Chinese police, the reporting partner said.

“Security agents and informants working undercover in China have participated in or are well aware of government-led sting operations, arrests, abductions, and detentions. I understand that the ministry has ordered that it is alright for these people to be shot on sight if they try to make a run for it.”

Translated by Rose Adams. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of reporting partners who live inside North Korea and China. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

13. North Korea orders citizens to read 10,000 pages of propaganda this year

I cannot make this stuff up.

North Korea orders citizens to read 10,000 pages of propaganda this year

americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · May 3, 2023

This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission.

North Korea is ordering citizens to read 10,000 pages of propaganda this year to foster loyalty among the populace – and combat “reactionary” South Korean popular culture – but sources told Radio Free Asia that the people know that the government wants to brainwash them.

The 10,000-page reading campaign is a rehash of a 1960s policy enacted by leader Kim Jong Un’s father and predecessor Kim Jong Il, who at that time was a high-ranking government official when his father Kim Il Sung ruled the country.

Sources said that the 2023 reading campaign is also meant to counter South Korean movies, TV shows and music smuggled into the country on memory sticks and other devices.

Authorities have imposed punishments, including public executions, for distributing or watching South Korean media, which is derided by the ruling Korean Workers’ Party as examples of “reactionary thought and culture.”

Factory workers in South Pyongan province, north of Pyongyang, were told to focus on texts like Kim Jong Un’s speeches and transcripts of party plenary meetings, a source in the province told Radio Free Asia on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“They have to write down what they read everyday and present it to the party organization at the end of the year,” he said, adding that the 10,000-page reading campaign is the government’s strategy to re-arm the people with socialist ideology.

“The workers are all saying that the books in North Korea are nothing but propaganda that our great leader is the best, so we are not interested in reading them,” said the source. “If the books were as fun to read as South Korean movies are to watch, wouldn’t we be reading them all night long?”

In North Pyongan province, members of the Socialist Women’s Union were told to read the published works of the current or previous leaders, or novels with a socialist message, a source there told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“The purpose of the 10,000-page reading campaign is not to simply achieve the exact number of pages, but to build up mental nourishment to prepare oneself politically and ideologically,” she explained.

The people were told to read at least 30 pages every day and to keep personal reading journals, summarizing the key feelings and thoughts from what they read. The journals are to be reviewed by the party organization at the end of the year.

The campaign is meant to “eradicate the reactionary thought and culture remaining in the minds of residents and young people, and to rearm the residents with the party’s ideology,” she said. “But who wants to read ten thousand pages of a North Korean book that’s all about praising the leader?”

americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · May 3, 2023

14. Washington signals support for South Korean chipmakers in US battle with China

Good.

Washington signals support for South Korean chipmakers in US battle with China

Financial Times · by Christian Davies · May 3, 2023

Washington has signalled to South Korea’s leading chip companies that it will extend permission for them to send US chipmaking tools to China, a concession to an ally that is key to curbing Beijing’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors.

The Biden administration in October gave Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two of the world’s leading producers of memory chips, a one-year reprieve from export controls designed to reduce China’s ability to develop high-end chips.

Four people familiar with the situation said the US had now sent a clear message that the Korean producers would be given another waiver for their plants in China for at least another year.

Since Washington imposed the export controls last year, US and South Korean officials have held intensive talks about how, and under what conditions, the chipmakers could continue to operate in China. Samsung and SK Hynix rely on US tools for part of their operations in China.

It remains unclear exactly what mechanism the US will use to allow them to continue to transfer American tools to China. One option would be to provide the companies with an open-ended “verified end use” certification, which would remove the need to seek repeated authorisation.

Even with the waiver, South Korean chipmakers will not be able to import extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines required to produce the world’s most advanced memory chips.

The decision on the waiver, which has not been formally approved by the Biden administration, underscores the difficulties the US faces as it tries to enlist countries such as South Korea, Japan and the Netherlands — whose equipment makers are all-important in the global chip supply chain — to slow China’s drive to secure advanced semiconductors, while not harming allies’ economic interests.

President Joe Biden last week rejected criticism that his China-related export controls were hurting South Korea. “It’s creating jobs in South Korea, and not just with SK [Group] but . . . with Samsung,” Biden said at a joint press conference with South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol, who was making a four-day state visit to Washington. “It’s a win-win.”

An effective extension of the one-year waiver, in addition to other measures under discussion, would help the Korean companies maintain their technological edge over their Chinese competitors, according to several people familiar with the discussions. That would help address concerns that disruption to their Chinese operations would benefit their Chinese competitors.

“If the waiver is not extended, it would disrupt their chip production in China,” said Kim Yang-paeng, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Industrial Economics & Trade. “For example, if chipmaking equipment breaks down, they need to replace some parts, but this will not be possible if they can’t renew the waiver.”

Recommended

The semiconductor industry accounts for about 20 per cent of South Korea’s exports. Samsung’s semiconductor business recorded a $3.4bn loss on Thursday last week, amid a sharp downturn in the global memory chip sector.

The FT reported last year that Samsung and SK Hynix were re-evaluating their investments in China as a result of the US Chips and Science Act, which offers billions of dollars in subsidies to chipmakers in exchange for commitments not to expand their facilities in China.

Korean officials have chafed at several of Washington’s demands. The FT recently reported that the White House had asked South Korea to urge its chipmakers not to fill any market gap in China if Beijing banned US competitor Micron from selling chips there. Beijing is conducting a national security review of the Idaho-based memory chipmaker.

The US commerce department and Samsung Electronics declined to comment. SK Hynix said in a statement: “Given that the talks between the US and the Korean government are still ongoing, we are not in a position to comment.”

Additional reporting by Song Jung-a in Seoul

Financial Times · by Christian Davies · May 3, 2023

15.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com