Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"There should promptly be established, under the cover of the National Security Council Secretariat, a directorate of political warfare operations to be known as the Consultative (or Evaluation) Board of the National Security Council."

– George Kennan

"Be the kind of person that you want people to think you are."

– Socretes

"The President is merely the most important among a large number of public servants. He should be supported or opposed exactly to the degree which is warranted by his good conduct or bad conduct, his efficiency or inefficiency in rendering loyal, able, and disinterested service to the Nation as a whole. Therefore it is absolutely necessary that there should be full liberty to tell the truth about his acts, and this means that it is exactly necessary to blame him when he does wrong as to praise him when he does right. Any other attitude in an American citizen is both base and servile. To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him than about any one else."

– Theodore Roosevelt

1. With North Korea trip, sanctioned Putin copies ‘Kim family playbook’

2. A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation

3. The Significance of the Putin-Kim Summit

4. Putin vows trade, security with North Korea beyond reach of West

5. U.S. Foreign Policy Wanders Aimlessly

6. Putin praises North Korea for Ukraine support ahead of visit to Pyongyang

7. Putin set to arrive in N. Korea in rare trip amid deepening concerns about military cooperation

8. U.S. calls deepening N.K.-Russia ties trend of 'great concern' ahead of Putin's Pyongyang visit

9. Putin's N.K. trip raises security uncertainties, dims N.K. dialogue prospects

10. Putin vows to develop settlement system with N. Korea not controlled by West

11. N. Korean soldiers briefly cross border for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks

12. Russia could become North Korea's next treaty ally

13. Defense minister discusses arms cooperation with Romanian presidential official

14. Supporting South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Aspirations

15. Putin to arrive in North Korea, with new treaty in focus

16. Washington, Seoul sound alarm over Putin’s visit to Pyongyang

17. Putin, in North Korea, Seeks Arms for Ukraine War

18. North Korea Has Lost ‘Many’ Troops to Mines in DMZ, South Says

1. With North Korea trip, sanctioned Putin copies ‘Kim family playbook’

For the next few days it will be the Kim-Putin show all day and almost all of the time.

We need to recognize their strategy, deeply understand the strategy, and then expose their strategy in order to inoculate the press, policy makers, pundits,and the public so that they do not fall prey to Putin and Kim's strategy. And lastly we need to attack the strategy with a superior political warfare strategy (the use of all elements of national power short of war to achieve strategic objectives) relying on a sound , comprehensive, and well-orchestrated information campaign.

Kim and Putin do not need a meeting to continue their actual and potential mutual support. They could conclude all their agreements via video teleconference and negotiators.

But they need a Kim-Putin show for their own political warfare purposes.

First they want to appear stronger than they really are. They want us to fear the axis of aggressors or the axis of dictators. The major foreign policy/national security objective may be to make the international community afraid of their (phoney) individual and combined strength. Crudely, they want the world to fear them, to make us afraid. They want us to believe that Putin will provide advanced military capabilities to support Kim's nuclear and missile developments.

Second, by "making us afraid" they want to generate threatening rhetoric from the international community and the US in particular, that they can use for their real problem, internal domestic instability and potential threats. They require the perception of external threats to justify the sacrifice and suffering of their people as they prioritize their own personal security and their military developments over the welfare of the people.

For both Russia and (especially) north Korea we need to observe for indicators of internal instability. Kim Jong Un in particular is under immense internal stress because of his failed promises to the Korean people in the north (e.g., that nuclear weapons would bring them peace and prosperity) and his failed policies (specifically the crack downs on markets, movement, and information).

The international community must not fall into their trap. It must not respond by demonstrating fear. On the other hand it must not play down the threats. Leaders must clearly explain the strategy and what Putin and Kim are doing and why. This is exposing the strategy by doing so it inoculates the people against the strategy and undermines the legitimacy of the strategy.

Lastly the ROK, the US, the EU, and other like minded countries and international organizations must attack the strategy. One of the ways to do so is to execute an information campaign to expose these strategies to the Russians and the Korean people in the north. It is to be consistent in calling out the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. It is to be consistent with sustained support to Ukraine and the ROK and ROK/US Alliance. In short it is imperative that no one backs down to the threats or shows fear in the face of threats.

With North Korea trip, sanctioned Putin copies ‘Kim family playbook’

Kremlin confirms Pyongyang visit as military, economic ties deepen

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

By - The Washington Times - Monday, June 17, 2024

SEOUL, South Korea — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day visit for talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, confirmed in both capitals Monday, will likely accelerate arms and technology exchanges as ties between the two U.S. adversaries deepen.

The bigger takeaway from Mr. Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang in nearly a quarter century may be hard-earned lessons about anti-Western resilience.

“At the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a friendly state visit to [North Korea] on June 18-19,” Russia’s official news agency TASS confirmed. Mr. Putin, who has rarely traveled abroad since launching his invasion of Ukraine nearly 2½ years ago, will also visit Vietnam this week before returning to the Kremlin.

Though Russian officials did not detail Mr. Putin’s agenda in Pyongyang, the capital of one of the world’s most opaque states, the visit had been widely signaled.

Mr. Kim, who also rarely ventures abroad, traveled to a satellite launch base in the Russian Far East for talks with Mr. Putin in September. A reciprocal visit was widely expected. Cooperation between the two heavily sanctioned, anti-Western states has accelerated, and Mr. Putin is expected to receive a warm welcome and a possible parade in his honor in the North Korean capital.

With Russia and North Korea facing an imposing array of international economic sanctions, Pyongyang has stepped up to support Mr. Putin’s military campaign in Ukraine.

South Korea says as many as 3 million shells and tactical rockets have been transferred from North Korea to Russia, fueling Moscow’s grinding advance in recent months in Ukraine. In return, Russia is thought to have been assisting North Korea with satellite launch technologies as Pyongyang struggles to get military spy satellites into orbit.

With North Korea perennially short of oil and food, Russia is widely expected to barter those commodities for more arms and munitions and perhaps for North Korean labor to help rebuild captured Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Russia may also be seeking naval access to North Korea’s northeastern port of Rason. That access would disperse its Pacific Fleet from its main base at Vladivostok.

Changing attitudes

Mr. Putin last visited North Korea in July 2000, months after his presidential inauguration. He held talks with Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, who died in 2011.

Analysts who once thought that millennial Russia would not get too close to the highly toxic North Korea are changing their minds as the war in Ukraine drags on, Russian-Western animosity grows and Moscow reaches out to a fellow pariah.

“I cannot rule out that the Russian government might one day like to go back to the embrace of the civilized world,” said Andrei Lankov, an academic who studies North Korea at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “But even if that is the case, I don’t think it really influences their attitude toward North Korea.”

Mr. Putin may even be looking to North Korea, often described as a pariah state, for pointers on how to survive politically in the face of a hostile U.S. and international pressure.

“Putin is using the Kim family playbook. The only difference is Kim’s regime is based on dynastic rule and hereditary power succession, while Putin is ruling as a collective leadership of former KGB operatives,” said Leonid Petrov, a Russian-born North Korea watcher and a fellow at Australian National University.

Tightening internal controls in Russia are starting to resemble Mr. Kim’s repressive regime, analysts say, including the engineered reelection campaign that secured Mr. Putin another six-year lease on power in the Kremlin.

“There is no political opposition in Russia anymore, like North Korea, and the border is being more controlled in, I think, preparation for a complete shutdown if Putin prepares another mobilization,” Mr. Petrov said. “Political, economic and personal freedoms are being curtailed in Russia, not to the extent they are in North Korea, but significantly more than just a few years ago.”

Soviet citizens once looked down on impoverished, isolated North Korea, but attitudes are in flux as their heirs face circumstances similar to those that North Koreans have endured for decades.

“When I lived in the USSR, North Korea was mocked as being the poorest country of the communist bloc, completely unfree and super reclusive,” Mr. Petrov said. “These days, the attitude is more positive. It stood up against U.S. ‘imperialism,’ which Putin’s Russia has decided to repeat.”

Modern North Korea is also symbolic of the hard-core, militaristic days of the Soviet Union that many in Russia hope to recapture.

“Russians are nostalgic about the USSR, and North Korea is [reminiscent] of what older Russians experienced in their formative years, so the general attitude toward North Korea is more and more positive,” Mr. Petrov said. “North Korea did not care about international sanctions, and that is what Russia is trying to do now. They see the Kim Jong-un dictatorship as strong leadership.”

In Vietnam, Mr. Putin plans to meet with Gen. Nguyen Phu Trong, secretary general of the Vietnamese Communist Party, President To Lam, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man. The two sides will discuss “a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Vietnam in the trade and economy, scientific and technology, and humanitarian fields,” the Kremlin said.

The U.S., which has cultivated Vietnam as a security and trade partner in recent years, has criticized the upcoming meeting.

“As Russia continues to seek international support to sustain its illegal and brutal war against Ukraine, we reiterate that no country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalize his atrocities,” a U.S. Embassy spokesperson in Hanoi told The Associated Press.

The warmer ties between the Kim and Putin regimes undercut Western policies of isolation and sanctions.

“North Korea never traded with the West, and Russia used to, but both sides surprisingly quickly found ways to go their separate paths,” said Mr. Lankov. “Our leverage now is ‘blah blah blah’ leverage.”

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

Click to Read More and View Comments

Click to Hide

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

2. A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation

We must show no fear of the axis of aggressors/dictators. We must understand they are facing internal threats that require them to generate fear in us so we can provide the perceived external threat they require for their own survival.

A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation

https://www.csis.org/analysis/threat-no-other-russia-north-korea-military-cooperation

Victor Cha

Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair

Commentary by Victor Cha

Published June 17, 2024

The summit meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War. This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland. Amid front-burner issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the administration relegates this problem to the back burner at its own peril.

What started out as a small arms sale by North Korea to the Wagner Group in November 2022 has recently been acknowledged by Secretary of State Antony Blinken as a “matter of deep concern” over the North’s provision of 5 million rounds of ammunition and scores of ballistic missiles. As the summit suggested, Kim is likely to fuel Russian war stocks indefinitely. Of pressing concern, however, is what Putin is giving in return. It is highly unlikely that Kim would have feted Putin so lavishly only for the promise of food and fuel. That may have been the gift when Kim visited Russia in September 2023, direly needed at the time as his country was just emerging from a three-plus year Covid lockdown. But Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines laid down a significant marker in March 2024 when she said Moscow may be dropping long-held nonproliferation norms in its dealings with North Korea.

Kim wants advanced telemetry, nuclear submarine technology, military satellite wares, and advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. Putin needs Kim’s weapons to make up for a monthly munitions shortfall of 50,000 rounds (even if Russia is producing ammunition at full capacity) in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine. A gaggle of Russian scientists were in North Korea prior to this month’s military satellite launch. Kim has also been expressing satisfaction with his nuclear submarine plans, which is a very bad sign. This aspect of the relationship not only destabilizes security on the peninsula and in Asia; it also heightens the direct threat posed by North Korea to the homeland. ICBMs with advanced countermeasure technology, overhead reconnaissance capabilities, and nuclear submarines would allow Kim to target the entirety of the United States with a nuclear force that Washington would have difficulty taking out in a preemptive first strike.

In fairness, the Biden administration has called out the problem. It has declassified satellite imagery and other intelligence, providing glimpses of these ties. Biden has advanced an unprecedented battery of new defense exercises with Japan and South Korea that enhances deterrence and makes the three allies stronger. Nonetheless, Kim is on pace to conduct more military provocations this election year than ever before (surpassing 2022’s record of 48 provocations).

It is on the diplomatic front where fault can be found. Biden is on autopilot when it comes to North Korea, recycling talking points on denuclearization circa the Obama administration. Most experts think North Korea has at least 50 nuclear bombs now. Pyongyang has spurned over 20 private attempts by the administration to restart talks. It has even thrown letters back in the face of engagement-oriented U.S. diplomats.

The administration should shelve denuclearization and prioritize policies to disrupt the arms trade between Russia and North Korea.

This is not an easy task. First, the routes used to transport North Korean arms to Russia run deep in the latter’s territory, making military interceptions of munitions cargo, whether by boat or rail, dangerously escalatory; Biden does not need a third war on his watch. Second, Russia’s veto in March 2024 to reauthorize a UN watchdog body on North Korean proliferation is aimed at dismantling the entire UN sanctions regime toward Pyongyang.

Nonetheless, the toolkit is not completely bare. The United States should mobilize Europeans at G7 and NATO conferences this summer to apply economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang. While the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, most European governments do, and North Korea has traditionally seen Europe as its gateway to the West. As a first step, actions like those taken at the G7 summit last week against Russian and North Korean financial assets should be expanded in the name of disrupting the weapons trade.

Biden should capitalize on Beijing’s unhappiness with the closer ties between its traditional junior partner and Putin. If Putin is modernizing Kim’s nuclear arsenal, that will only create a greater U.S. military presence in China’s neighborhood and potentially even a nuclear domino effect in the region, starting with South Korea. China is still the economic lifeline for the North and it can join in sanctions against any companies supporting the weapons trade.

Finally, the United States should launch a major human rights and information penetration campaign. It should enlist Europe in this effort given the death and human suffering of Ukrainians caused by lethal North Korean support of Russia. North Korea’s deploying of trash balloons to the South in the past weeks in retaliation for South Korean loudspeakers blasting K-pop music at the border and NGOs dropping bibles into the North shows how sensitive the regime is to its people being exposed to the outside world. The Kim regime is more afraid of BTS than U.S.-South Korean military exercises. U.S. policy desperately needs to try something new and should leverage this fact.

Putin and Kim may feel that they have a match made in heaven. The former is getting what he needs for the war while complicating Biden’s security policies in Asia. The latter, with Russian sustenance, is able to wait out Biden while advancing and modernizing their nuclear force. Biden should take the offensive. While these recommended half measures will not solve the problem, they are better than the administration sitting on its hands while doling out stale talking points.

Dr. Victor Cha served as director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council and U.S. deputy head of delegation for the Six Party talks. He is senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., and distinguished university professor and professor of government at Georgetown University.

3. The Significance of the Putin-Kim Summit

Excerpts:

The best the United States can do in response is to strengthen the nascent U.S.-Japan-South Korea relationship as a counterweight and deterrent to the growing China-Russia-North Korea axis. As I noted in the May Foreign Affairs article, “The Coming North Korean Crisis,” much has already been done, but more can still be done to strengthen the trilateral alliance, including enhanced cooperation on communication, data transfer, the exchange of intelligence, missile defense, and more robust military exercises.

Unfortunately, all indications are that the dual threats from Russia and North Korea—now increasingly intertwined--will only continue to grow.

The Significance of the Putin-Kim Summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2024 visit to North Korea, his first since 2000, signifies the ongoing strengthening of bilateral ties. Whether this is a short-term expedience or the start of a true security alliance remains to be seen.

Blog Post by Sue Mi Terry

June 17, 2024 9:12 pm (EST)

https://www.csis.org/analysis/threat-no-other-russia-north-korea-military-cooperation

cfr.org ·

With Russian President Vladmir Putin visiting Pyongyang on Tuesday for a summit with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un, concerns are growing that the current rekindling of a military relationship between North Korea and Russia could lead to a deeper, mutually beneficial trade in weapons and technology. Today’s visit is the second time Putin and Kim will be meeting each other in less than a year (the two leaders last met in September in the Russian Far East), and this marks Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000, when he met with Kim Jong Un’s father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il.

The key question is: Will Russia share its sensitive military technology with North Korea in return for North Korea shipping artillery shells and munitions (more than seven thousand containers of military supplies so far) to aid Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine? The answer to that question turns on whether the Russia-North Korea relationship is only a temporary marriage of convenience—or indicative of a deeper, more long-term alliance, akin to the relationship between the two countries during the Cold War?

Opinion is divided on this crucial question among Korea watchers, and the Tuesday summit could help to provide some answers. If the Russia-North Korea relationship is only a temporary, wartime expedience, then Putin may think twice about providing North Korea with the means to substantially upgrade its already formidable weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program by transferring some of Russia’s most secret technologies. If it is a more lasting alliance, however, Putin may be more forthcoming with Russian military technology, no matter how many UN resolutions he violates with such transfers. And if that is the case, Russia could turbo-charge the threat that North Korea poses not only to South Korea but also to the United States and Japan.

Indeed, Russia may already have provided a preview of what its assistance could do for North Korea. Pyongyang had been having trouble with missile launches due to a lack of advanced technologies, but after two failed attempts to launch a military satellite into orbit in May and August 2023, it finally succeeded in November, only two months after the last Kim-Putin summit. It is still unknown whether Russia provided technology that enabled the North Korean launch—there may not have been enough time for that—but at the very least it is likely that Russia provided analysis on previous failures and suggested ways that North Korea could fix the problems in the next launch. Russian assistance with space launch vehicles would aid the North’s intercontinental ballistic missile program; the technologies for lofting satellites and missiles are similar. Russia could also aid the North with its submarine and nascent submarine-launched ballistic missile programs, areas in which Russia has significant experience and expertise.

Much depends on what happens in Ukraine. If the war continues for years to come, that will increase Russia’s dependence on North Korea for munitions production and make Putin more willing to share sensitive technologies. But if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia may have less need for North Korea. If that were to happen, Russia—whether ruled by Putin or a successor—may seek to repair relations with the West; it would find dealing with Western economic partners a lot more lucrative than dealing with an impoverished pariah state like North Korea.

Unfortunately, the United States has extremely limited leverage to affect the Kim-Putin decision-making. The United States and its allies could, and should, ramp up sanctions on both countries, but they already face substantial Western sanctions, and it has not deterred them from continuing with the invasion of Ukraine (in Russia’s case) and an illegal WMD program (in North Korea’s case). Indeed, it makes sense for these two rogue states—which are so isolated internationally—to work together, in particular because both have close relationships with China. (China, however, may not be happy to see its client state, North Korea, drawing so close to Moscow, thereby lessening Beijing’s leverage on Kim. That may give Beijing and Washington some overlapping interests in limiting the Russia-North Korea relationship.)

The best the United States can do in response is to strengthen the nascent U.S.-Japan-South Korea relationship as a counterweight and deterrent to the growing China-Russia-North Korea axis. As I noted in the May Foreign Affairs article, “The Coming North Korean Crisis,” much has already been done, but more can still be done to strengthen the trilateral alliance, including enhanced cooperation on communication, data transfer, the exchange of intelligence, missile defense, and more robust military exercises.

Unfortunately, all indications are that the dual threats from Russia and North Korea—now increasingly intertwined--will only continue to grow.

cfr.org ·

4. Putin vows trade, security with North Korea beyond reach of West

Kim and Putin are enjoying all the press.

Putin vows trade, security with North Korea beyond reach of West

By Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith

June 18, 20243:48 AM EDTUpdated 2 hours ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-vows-take-north-korea-ties-higher-level-2024-06-17/?utm

0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%

SEOUL, June 18 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin promised to build trade and security systems with North Korea that are not controlled by the West as he heads to Pyongyang on Tuesday for the first time in 24 years, seeking partners to boost Russia's military in its war against Ukraine.

Putin pledged his unwavering support in a letter published by North Korean state media on Tuesday ahead of his planned visit to the country.

In the letter, printed in North Korea's Rodong Sinmun, the ruling Workers' Party mouthpiece, the Russian president said the two countries have developed good relationsand partnerships over the past 70 years based on equality, mutual respect and trust.

"We will develop alternative mechanisms of trade and mutual settlements that are not controlled by the West, and jointly resist illegitimate unilateral restrictions," Putin wrote. "And at the same time – we will build an architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia."

He thanked North Korea for supporting what Russia calls its special military operation in Ukraine, and vowed support for Pyongyang's efforts to defend its interests despite what he called "U.S. pressure, blackmail and military threats".

North Korean state media also published articles praising Russia and supporting its operations in Ukraine, calling them a "sacred war of all Russian citizens".

"The Korean people will always be on the side of the Russian government and people, extending full support and solidarity to their struggle to defend the national sovereignty and security interests," KCNA said in a commentary.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller repeated charges on Monday that North Korea had supplied "dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions to Russia" for use in Ukraine.

He said the United States had seen Putin "get incredibly desperate over the past few months" and look to Iran and North Korea to make up for equipment lost on the battlefield.

Moscow and Pyongyang have denied arms transfers.

Russia has promised cooperation with North Korea on a range of humanitarian, economic, trade, and military areas and has blocked efforts at the United Nations Security Council to monitor and impose new sanctions on Pyongyang.

PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT

The article was published a day after the two countries announced that Putin would visit North Korea for the first time in 24 years for two days starting on Tuesday.

Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said Russia and North Korea may sign a partnership agreement during the visit that would include security issues.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un visit the Vostochny Сosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, September 13, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

He said the deal would not be directed against any other country, but would "outline prospects for further cooperation, and will be signed taking into account what has happened between our countries in recent years - in the field of international politics, in the field of economics ... including, of course, taking into account security issues."

Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the ministers for natural resources, health, and transport, the heads of the Russian space agency and its railways, and Putin's point man for energy, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, will be part of the delegation.

The visit will include one-on-one discussions between the two leaders, as well as a gala concert, state reception, honour guards, document signings, and a statement to the media, Assistant to the Head of State Yuri Ushakov told reporters, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

Ahead of the visit North Korea appears to have been making preparations for a possible military parade in downtown Pyongyang, commercial satellite imagery showed.

DIVIDED SECURITY COUNCIL

The summit presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War, said Victor Cha, a former U.S. national security official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland," he wrote in a report on Monday.

He called on Washington to work with Europe and other partners to increase economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang, engage with China, and launch a major human rights and information campaign to flood the reclusive North with outside media.

Formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions for its ballistic missile and nuclear programs since 2006, and those measures have been strengthened over the years.

For the past several years the Security Council has been divided over how to deal with Pyongyang. Russia and China say more sanctions will not help and want such measures to be eased. They proposed some sanctions be lifted in December 2019, but have never put their draft resolution to a vote.

In May 2022, the pair vetoed a U.S.-led push to impose more U.N. sanctions on North Korea over its renewed ballistic missile launches. Russia then vetoed in March this year the renewal of a panel of experts monitoring enforcement of U.N. sanctions.

China and Russia say joint military drills by the United States and South Korea provoke Pyongyang, while Washington accuses Beijing and Moscow of emboldening North Korea by shielding it from more sanctions.

After North Korea, Putin will visit Vietnam on June 19-20.

(This story has been refiled to say 'Russia's', not 'country's', in paragraph 1)

Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here.

Reporting by Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith; Additional reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne and Michelle Nichols in New York; Editing by Rosalba O'Brien, Sandra Maler and Gerry Doyle

5. U.S. Foreign Policy Wanders Aimlessly

Adopting a two war strategy (HERE) might end the aimless wandering.

The headline editor did not think north Korea was important enough to add to the subtitle, deeming it a lesser power like Venezuela (based on Dr. Mead's analysis - with which I disagree. We minimize the north Korean threat to our peril, especially since it provides significant support to Russia and Iran).)

U.S. Foreign Policy Wanders Aimlessly

Washington assumes erroneously that China, Russia and Iran want ‘stability.’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-wanders-aimlessly-through-the-world-biden-g7-china-russia-iran-07965c8f?utm_medium=social

By Walter Russell Mead

June 17, 2024 5:14 pm ET

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Stansstad, Switzerland, June 16. PHOTO: ALESSANDRO DELLA VALLE/REUTERS

Rome

Giorgia Meloni was the winner of last week’s Group of Seven meeting. Whether giving French President Emmanuel Macron the stink eye or stitching up a deal to increase Italy’s clout in the European Union, the Italian prime minister had a good summit. Once stigmatized as a neofascist from the fringes of Europe’s hard right, Ms. Meloni has firmly entrenched herself at the center of European politics. She has become a role model for figures like Marine Le Pen in France, and the European Union seems to be moving in Ms. Meloni’s direction on issues like migration and climate change.

Joe Biden, by contrast, is struggling. While administration supporters denounced what they called a cropped and misleading video of a befuddled-looking president wandering across the lawn, the image aptly depicted the state of an American foreign policy that has largely lost its way.

The problem isn’t lack of activity. If frequent-flyer miles could be redeemed for Nobel Peace Prizes, Team Biden would have a fistful of medals. But that isn’t where we are. In the Middle East, Europe and the Far East, the U.S. and its friends are less secure than they were in January 2021. Great-power conflict is closer today than at any time in decades.

The heart of the problem is conceptual. Team Biden was slow to grasp the connections between the challenges it faces, and slower still to draw the appropriate conclusions. For too long they ignored the steadily growing elements of common strategy and purpose among major revisionist powers like China, Russia and Iran and lesser powers like North Korea and Venezuela.

The merits of the American-led world system were so obvious to Team Biden that they assumed other countries mostly agreed with us about how the world should work. “Stability,” they believed, is an interest almost everybody shares. When a crisis erupts—in the shoals off the Philippines, in the Red Sea, on Israel’s northern border, on the ground in Ukraine—the Biden hands instinctively rushed to “stabilize the situation,” offering “off-ramps,” “de-escalating,” and generally trying to smooth things over.

Unfortunately, this approach is badly out of date. China, Russia and Iran don’t have a common set of positive goals or values, but they have a common interest in undermining the U.S.-led world system. Rather than seeing crises as common problems demanding common action to restore stability, they see crises as opportunities to weaken American power.

In former times, China might have wanted America to succeed in its efforts to stabilize the Middle East and keep the Red Sea open. After all, China likes low oil prices and doesn’t want shipping disrupted in sea lanes that matter for its trade. That is still true, but China’s interest in hastening the decline of American power trumps its interest in Middle East stability. Rather than helping Team Biden calm the Middle East, Beijing looks to exploit regional tensions to weaken Washington’s position.

Similarly, 15 years ago the U.S. could count on our common strategic interest with Russia in avoiding a nuclear breakout in Iran and a nuclear buildup in North Korea. No more. The Kremlin no doubt still views the Iranian leaders with deep suspicion and the North Koreans with contempt, but empowering North Korea and Iran is a price Russia is willing to pay if the result is to make life harder for the U.S.

What unites the revisionists is their sense that America, overstretched and internally divided, is ready to be rolled. They believe that the best way to degrade and ultimately break America’s power is to create more instability and crisis in more places so that our resources and our will are overtaxed, and we fumble and stumble as the tide of history turns against us.

Conventional crisis management won’t solve this problem. American foreign policy must shift out of the managerial, reactive mode and become more proactive. The revisionist powers need to spend less time planning how to discomfit America and more time worrying about what the U.S. has planned for them.

The Middle East offers one option to change the momentum. Iran, racing toward nuclear weapons but not yet in possession of them, is overextended and the weakest of the major revisionist powers. Teaching Iran that supporting the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah is poor strategy would do more to stabilize the Middle East than 100 painfully negotiated Security Council resolutions about Gaza. It would also instill some healthy caution into the calculations of Moscow and Beijing.

There are other options, but time is running short. Unless the administration changes its approach, the image of Mr. Biden wandering aimlessly, doctored or not, will define his presidency.

WSJ Opinion: Roger Wicker Sounds the Alarm on Fading U.S. Defenses

1:42

Paused

0:00

4:25

Review and Outlook: Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, is pushing much higher defense spending to meet the growing threats from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Image: Mc2 Evan Mueller/US Navy/Zuma Press

Appeared in the June 18, 2024, print edition as 'U.S. Foreign Policy Wanders Aimlessly'.

6. Putin praises North Korea for Ukraine support ahead of visit to Pyongyang

This could be a love fest. Kim is certainly pleased with this rhetoric.

Putin praises North Korea for Ukraine support ahead of visit to Pyongyang

Russian leader will have talks with Kim Jong-un with shared aim of expanding security and economic cooperation

The Guardian · by Andrew Roth · June 18, 2024

Vladimir Putin has praised North Korea for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, as he travels to Pyongyang to seek continued military support from one of the world’s most isolated nations.

In his first visit to North Korea since 2000, Putin will meet Kim Jong-un for one-on-one talks in Pyongyang as the two leaders pledge to expand their security and economic cooperation in defiance of western sanctions against both countries.

Putin is expected to arrive in North Korea late on Tuesday, Agence France-Presse reported, with a large entourage of government ministers and advisers, including those responsible for the Russian military and weapons procurement. They include his new defence minister, Andrey Belousov, and Denis Manturov, his top deputy prime minister overseeing the defence sector.

In an article written for Korea’s Central News Agency on Tuesday, Putin praised North Korea for “firmly supporting” Moscow’s war in Ukraine, writing that he plans to lift relations with Pyongyang to a higher level.

US and South Korea sound warning amid reports Putin is headed to North Korea

“The program is very full,” said Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. “A considerable amount of time will be dedicated to informal contacts between the leaders, as these negotiations … will contain the most important and most sensitive questions.”

It is a rare trip abroad for Putin, who has limited his international travel to friendly countries since he launched the full-scale invasion and became the subject of an international criminal court arrest warrant for the mass deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.

North Korea has supplied Russia with millions of rounds of Soviet-era artillery munitions as a crucial lifeline to prop up the Russian military campaign in Ukraine. The US secretary of defence, Lloyd Austin, last month told lawmakers that the supplies of munitions and missiles, as well as Iranian drones, had helped the Russian military “get back up on their feet”.

North Korea has also provided Russia with ballistic missiles and electronic equipment used in the war effort.

In return, Russia is believed to have provided aid to North Korea’s satellite programme, as well as other arms, economic aid and diplomatic support. Kim visited Russia’s far east last year, meeting Putin in Vladivostok during a trip where he visited a factory producing modern fighter jets and the Vostochny cosmodrome.

The White House said on Monday that Washington is apprehensive over closer ties between Russia and North Korea.

“We’re not concerned about the trip [by Putin],” national security council spokesperson, John Kirby, told reporters Monday. “What we are concerned about is the deepening relationship between these two countries.”

Kirby said the worry was not just that “North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to hit Ukrainian targets, but because there could be some reciprocity here that could affect security on the Korean peninsula”.

Citing a Kremlin aide, Russian agencies said Monday the two leaders will sign “important documents” during the visit.

This may include a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” which will outline future cooperation and deal with “security issues”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov was quoted as saying by state-run Russian news agencies.

But experts said that in reality, any new agreements would be focused on boosting the two countries’ defence cooperation.

“Moscow and Pyongyang want to leverage the perception that their ties are long term and increasingly integrated regarding defence,” Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, told the Yonhap new agency.

“They may also suggest this relationship is comprehensive. Certainly both countries are facing serious economic dilemmas. But regardless of the words used, current relations will focus on defence cooperation.”

South Korean defence minister Shin Wonsik said in an interview with Bloomberg News that Seoul had identified at least 10,000 shipping containers suspected to be containing artillery ammunition and other weapons sent from North Korea to Russia.

Those containers could contain as much as 4.8m shells, Shin said. EU countries have struggled to meet the goal of supplying 1m artillery shells to Ukraine over the past year, sending just half of that amount.

“Putin is expected to seek closer security cooperation with North Korea, especially military supplies such as artillery shells that are necessary to seize a chance to win,” Shin told Bloomberg News.

The Guardian · by Andrew Roth · June 18, 2024

7. Putin set to arrive in N. Korea in rare trip amid deepening concerns about military cooperation

(LEAD) Putin set to arrive in N. Korea in rare trip amid deepening concerns about military cooperation | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · June 18, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES with TASS report in para 7)

By Kim Soo-yeon

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin was set to make his first visit to North Korea in 24 years Tuesday for talks with leader Kim Jong-un in a highly symbolic trip showing off their ever-tightening relations amid deepening concerns about military cooperation.

Putin will "pay a state visit" to North Korea for a two-day trip at the invitation of the North's leader, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported in a one-sentence dispatch Monday. The Kremlin made a similar announcement.

It will mark Putin's first trip to North Korea since July 2000, when he met with former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, the late father of the current leader. It also comes nine months after Kim traveled to Russia's Far East in September last year for a summit with Putin.

Since then, the two nations have been bolstering military ties and expanding the scope of cooperation in various fields, with the North supplying Russia with ammunition for its war in Ukraine in exchange for aid and suspected technological assistance for its space program.

Putin will arrive in Pyongyang on Tuesday evening and sign "important" documents with the North's leader Wednesday, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov was quoted as telling reporters by Russia's news agency TASS.

"Several documents will be signed ... and this can be said about a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty," Ushakov said, adding that if it is signed, it would "outline prospects for further cooperation" between the two nations.

Later Tuesday, Russia's TASS news agency reported that Putin ordered the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with North Korea. It did not provide further details.

This file photo, carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows its leader Kim Jong-un (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin holding a summit at Russia's Vostochny spaceport the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Experts said Putin's trip will likely pave the way for deeper military cooperation between the two nations beyond arms transactions at a time when North Korea and Russia are voicing their solidarity against the United States.

Pyongyang is accused of providing weapons and munitions to Russia for use in Moscow's war in Ukraine in return for Russia's suspected technical assistance in the development of North Korea's spy satellite program and economic assistance.

Analysts said Kim and Putin may adopt a joint declaration that calls for both sides to elevate the level of military, security and economic cooperation but saw a low possibility of them clinching a treaty akin to a military alliance.

North Korea and the former Soviet Union signed a treaty of friendship and mutual assistance in 1961, when the North's national founder Kim Il-sung visited Moscow.

The treaty included a provision for the so-called automatic military intervention, under which if one side is under an armed attack, the other provides military troops and other aid without hesitation.

But the deal was scrapped in 1996 after the Soviet Union established diplomatic ties with South Korea in 1990 and collapsed the following year.

In 2000, North Korea and Russia signed a new treaty of bilateral cooperation, but it did not contain such a provision, though it stated that both sides "immediately make contacts" in case one of them faces a crisis of being invaded.

Experts said North Korea and Russia are expected to highlight cooperation in the economic sector, as their arms deals and military cooperation constitute a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions banning Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

In an article contributed Tuesday to the Rodong Sinmun, the North's main newspaper, Putin said Russia has a plan to build trade and settlement systems with North Korea that will not be controlled by Western countries.

He also said the two nations will pump up exchanges and cooperation in such areas as education, tourism and culture.

Experts said Russia is not expected to transfer sensitive weapons technology to North Korea, such as a nuclear-powered submarine, in return for Pyongyang's arms supplies.

"What Russia could give the most to North Korea would be to assist its space development program, such as with satellites," Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said.

In late May, North Korea's attempt to launch a military spy satellite ended in failure as a satellite-carrying rocket exploded right after liftoff. In November last year, North Korea successfully placed a spy satellite into orbit, and it has a plan to launch three more such satellites in 2024.

The issue of North Korea's dispatch of its workers abroad could also be discussed at the upcoming summit, experts said. The North has a desperate need to earn foreign currency due to international sanctions, while Russia has been facing a labor shortage amid its war with Ukraine.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (C) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) meeting at Russia's Vostochny spaceport the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · June 18, 2024

8. U.S. calls deepening N.K.-Russia ties trend of 'great concern' ahead of Putin's Pyongyang visit

Concerned. Of course. Afraid? Absolutely not.

(2nd LD) U.S. calls deepening N.K.-Russia ties trend of 'great concern' ahead of Putin's Pyongyang visit | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 18, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS press briefing in paras 6-8)

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, June 17 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. State Department spokesperson on Monday described deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia as a trend of "great concern," after the North said Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Pyongyang this week.

The North's Korean Central News Agency announced Putin's plan to pay a state visit to Pyongyang from Tuesday to Wednesday amid concerns that he and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will seek to cement the bilateral military partnership with security implications on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.

"We are aware of reports that President Putin will visit Pyongyang soon," the spokesperson said in response to a question from Yonhap News Agency.

"Deepening military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is a trend that should be of great concern to anyone interested in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, upholding the global non-proliferation regime, and supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and independence against Russia's brutal invasion," the official added.

DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Matthew Miller, the spokesperson for the department, repeated the stance during a press briefing.

"We have seen over the past few months the DPRK unlawfully transfer dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions to aid Russia's war effort," he said. "We have seen those munitions show up on the battlefield in Ukraine. We know that they are using DPRK ammunition to threaten Ukraine and kill Ukrainians. So, we will continue to make clear our concerns."

He also renewed calls for Russia to respect all U.N. Security Council resolutions regarding nonproliferation.

During a separate press briefing, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby expressed concerns about the security implications of military transactions between Moscow and Pyongyang on the Korean Peninsula.

"We are not concerned about (Putin's) trip. What we are concerned about is the deepening relationship between these two countries not just because of the impact that it is going to have on the Ukrainian people because North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to hit Ukrainian targets," he said.

"But because there could be some reciprocity here that could affect security on the Korean Peninsula. Now, we haven't seen the parameters of all that right now ... Certainly, we haven't see it come to fruition but we are certainly going to be watching that very closely," he added.

Seoul, Washington and other countries have carefully watched developments in bilateral military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow due to their broad security implications.

Washington has revealed that Pyongyang has shipped over 10,000 containers of munitions or munition-related materials to Russia since September, in addition to its missile shipments.

In return, the North has been seeking assistance from Moscow, including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles and ballistic missile production equipment, according to U.S. officials.

Putin's visit to the North will mark his first trip to the North in 24 years. He last visited the reclusive country in July 2000, when leader Kim's late father, Kim Jong-il, was in power.

This Sept. 14, 2023, file image, taken from Korean Central Television footage, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 18, 2024

9. Putin's N.K. trip raises security uncertainties, dims N.K. dialogue prospects

Dialogue prospects would remain dim even if this meeting was not taking place due to Kim's strategy.

(LEAD) (News Focus) Putin's N.K. trip raises security uncertainties, dims N.K. dialogue prospects | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 18, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS more expert remarks in paras 15-16; CHANGES photo)

By Song Sang-ho and Kim Dong-hyun

WASHINGTON, June 17 (Yonhap) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin's imminent trip to North Korea is likely to heighten security uncertainties from their burgeoning military cooperation, and lessen Pyongyang's already dwindling appetite for diplomacy with South Korea and the United States, analysts said Monday.

Russia's news agency TASS reported that Putin will visit Pyongyang on Tuesday and Wednesday for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which will likely produce a treaty on a "comprehensive strategic partnership." His Asia swing also includes a trip to Vietnam.

Putin's upcoming visit comes amid deepening concerns that military transactions between Pyongyang and Moscow would help prop up Russia's protracted war of attrition in Ukraine and undermine security on the Korean Peninsula in the absence of meaningful engagement between the U.S. and the North.

Analysts said that Seoul, Washington and other partners should step up concerted efforts to keep identifying U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolution violations by Russia and the North, and disrupt and publicize their transactions banned under the resolutions.

"The timing right after the Group of Seven (summit in Italy) is Putin's answer, showing his presence in Asia and his ability to complicate Biden's security picture not just in Europe but in East and Southeast Asia," Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

"This will make it very unlikely for North Korea to reengage with (U.S. President) Biden before the election. Instead, they will ramp up testing and exercises as they always do in U.S. election years," he added.

This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (L) shaking hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting at Russia's Vostochny spaceport the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution)

The signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty is expected to be a key event during Putin's first trip to the North since 2000.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's aide for foreign affairs, said that it will replace the "fundamental" documents -- the 1961 Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance, the 2000 Treaty of Friendship and Good Neighborly Cooperation, and the Moscow and Pyongyang Declarations of 2000 and 2001, according to TASS.

"This treaty, if signed, is needed amid the profound evolution of the geopolitical situation in the world and in the region as well as qualitative changes in our bilateral relation in recent time," Ushakov was quoted as saying.

"Naturally, it will respect all the basic principles of international law. It will not have a confrontational character and will not be aimed against any countries."

Though it would be called a "comprehensive" document, observers said the crux of it would be the two countries' defense cooperation.

"Moscow and Pyongyang want to leverage the perception that their ties are long term and increasingly integrated regarding defense," Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, said.

"They may also suggest this relationship is comprehensive. Certainly both countries are facing serious economic dilemmas. But regardless of the words used, current relations will focus on defense cooperation."

But Cronin predicted that an alliance with security guarantees is unlikely to result from the summit between Kim and Putin.

The scholar described the upcoming summit between Kim and Putin as "two strongmen with weak economies basking in the limelight as leaders to swap military technology and subvert the U.S. led-order."

"Putin wants to show he is able to fight in Ukraine indefinitely and to impose costs on the U.S. if he (Putin) can tip the military balance a bit more in Asia, where the U.S. is watching China," he said. "He hopes to persuade American decision makers to end support for Ukraine's defense. But this is unlikely to work the way Putin intends."

Putin's upcoming visit has generated much attention to what Pyongyang and Moscow each would get from the summit. Pyongyang has long been thirsty for high-end military technology to advance its nuclear, missile, satellite and nuclear-powered submarine programs, with Moscow bent on ensuring a steady supply of weapons for its war in Ukraine.

"During this visit of Putin, North Korea will likely promise, for example, to provide Russia with continuing supplies of artillery, guided rockets for multiple rocket launchers, and short-range missiles to support Russia's operations in Ukraine," Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., said.

"And it will ask for Russia to provide a variety of advanced technologies to improve these kinds of systems and the munitions that they carry. That would include enhanced guidance, the potential for missiles carrying multiple independent warheads, and enhanced nuclear weapon technology."

He also said that Pyongyang could even seek "nuclear umbrella" support from Russia, though Kim's desire to be "self-reliant" may prevent him from going too far in this direction.

"North Korea will want a substantial flow of Russian oil and food products along with hard currency payments," he added.

These bilateral transactions have been carefully watched by Seoul and Washington as they can have an adverse effect on security on the Korean Peninsula and the battleground situation in Ukraine.

Pyongyang is known to have provided Russia with a large number of munitions, in addition to dozens of ballistic missiles, for use in Ukraine. Observers believe Russia's battlefield use of those weapons might have given Pyongyang technical insights to help improve its weapons programs.

"What we are concerned about is the deepening relationship between these two countries not just because of the impact that it is going to have on the Ukrainian people because North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to hit Ukrainian targets," White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told a press briefing.

Pyongyang's investment in renewed cooperation with Moscow has apparently paid tangible dividends.

In March, Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution that would have extended the mandate of an expert panel tasked with monitoring the enforcement of anti-Pyongyang sanctions. The panel's mandate expired in April, dealing a setback to global sanctions enforcement efforts.

Russia delivered more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea in March alone, with its shipments having already pushed Pyongyang's imports above an annual UNSC-mandated cap. Reports have also said that North Korean workers, a source of foreign currency, have gained employment in Russia despite UNSC restrictions.

With Russia providing such aid, North Korea's need for the resumption of dialogue with Washington or Seoul may further diminish, analysts said, particularly when U.S. President Joe Biden are his predecessor, Donald Trump, are set to face off against each other in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

This photo, released by the Associated Press, shows President Joe Biden (R) and former President Donald Trump (L). (Yonhap)

"I think that's absolutely true since Moscow is providing the basic economic needs they want but in addition, if they engaged with U.S., they then hear about how things were in South Korea," Bennett said.

"So engaging with the Russians means that it prevents some of the outside information they don't want into the North. So it's kind of a double benefit for North Korea to be able to get those things not from the U.S. or South Korea."

Some observers said that should the war in Ukraine wind down, cooperation between the North and Russia may weaken.

"It would lose its impetus. But then I don't assume the war is about to end soon," Cronin said.

Growing ties between the North and Russia have raised questions over China's calculus in the geopolitical dynamics.

Bennett brought attention to North Korea's diplomacy decades ago that appeared to be aimed at maximizing its interests between Moscow and Beijing.

"We have to remember from the 1970s and 1980s that North Korea never got too close to either China or Russia. Instead, Kim's grandfather, Kim Il-sung, played Russia and China off against each other, exploiting every opportunity to get goods and services from each country," he said.

"So the United States should be talking about that kind of North Korean exploitation and how both China and Russia are falling victim to continued North Korean manipulation."

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 18, 2024

10. Putin vows to develop settlement system with N. Korea not controlled by West

(2nd LD) Putin vows to develop settlement system with N. Korea not controlled by West | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 18, 2024

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES with more details from para 13; ADDS photo)

By Kim Soo-yeon

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed Tuesday to build an alternative settlement system with North Korea that will not be controlled by Western countries, as Moscow and Pyongyang seek to upgrade bilateral ties to a higher level.

Putin made the remark in an article contributed to the Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's main newspaper, as he was set to make his first visit to North Korea in 24 years Tuesday for talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

"We are firmly convinced that we will put bilateral cooperation onto a higher level with our joint efforts," Putin said.

He said Russia and North Korea will develop alternative systems for trade and mutual settlements not strained by Western countries and jointly oppose their "illegitimate" restrictive measures.

Putin appears to indicate that Russia and North Korea, both under international sanctions, could develop trade and settlement schemes that will not be affected by the U.S. dollar-based international financial system.

He also said Russia is planning to build an "equal and indivisible" security structure in Eurasia. He did not disclose other details.

Russia will ramp up exchanges and cooperation with North Korea in such areas as education, tourism and culture, Putin said.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin is expected to sign "important" documents with the North's leader Wednesday that will likely include a treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership, according to Russia's TASS news agency.

Putin also extended his appreciation to North Korea for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and voiced his support for North Koreans' struggle to defend their sovereignty against "the cunning, dangerous and aggressive enemy."

"We highly appreciate that the DPRK is firmly supporting the special military operations of Russia being conducted in Ukraine, expressing solidarity with us on major international issues and maintaining the common line and stand at the U.N.," Putin said.

Putin's two-day trip is a reciprocal visit after Kim traveled to Russia's Far East in September last year for the summit with Putin.

It will mark Putin's first trip to North Korea since July 2000, when he met with former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, the late father of the current leader.

North Korea's newspaper also issued a welcoming message for Putin in its editorial piece, saying that his trip will pave the way for the two nations to upgrade their friendly ties to a "new high level."

South Korea's unification ministry said Putin's trip to North Korea has a similar pattern to Chinese President Xi Jinping's 2019 state visit to Pyongyang.

Putin has also become the second foreign leader who has written a contribution published by the Rodong Sinmun ahead of his visit to North Korea after Xi, a ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

"If there is progress, Russia appears to intend to strengthen the status of the ruble in the dollar-centered international financial system," the official said when asked about Putin's remarks on alternative schemes for trade and settlements.

North Korea and Russia held a meeting of a joint economic committee in June 2014 in Vladivostok, where the two sides agreed to use the Russian currency of ruble in their mutual trade.

But there has been little progress over the issue as North Korea prefers the U.S. dollar, while Russia's trade with Pyongyang has remained small, according to sources.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meeting at Russia's Vostochny spaceport the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 18, 2024

11. N. Korean soldiers briefly cross border for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks

Probing? Baiting for a trap? Or poor patrol leadership and they were lost?

(LEAD) N. Korean soldiers briefly cross border for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 18, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS details in paras 3, 6-7, photo)

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- North Korean soldiers working in the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas briefly crossed into the South again Tuesday before returning to their side after the South fired warning shots, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

It marked the North's second border violation in less than two weeks after a similar incident on June 9.

The JCS said around 20 to 30 North Korean soldiers carrying work tools crossed the Military Demarcation Line within the DMZ in the central section of the border at around 8:30 a.m., according to the JCS.

This photo, provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on June 18, 2024, shows North Korean soldiers erecting a wall near the border area. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The South Korean military conducted warning broadcasts and fired warning shots, prompting the North Korean soldiers to return to their side of the border, the JCS said, adding that there was no unusual activity after the warning shots.

A JCS official said the incident appears to be accidental.

The border violation came as North Korea has been deploying hundreds of troops in front-line areas since April to conduct an array of activities, such as planting mines, erecting walls and building roads for military operations.

"These activities appear to be measures to strengthen internal control of the North Korean military and residents and fend off their attempts to cross the border," the JCS said.

This June 7, 2024, file photo taken from South Korea's Gyeonggi Province shows a North Korean guard post within the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas. (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 18, 2024

12. Russia could become North Korea's next treaty ally

That would make north Korea have one more ally than China. :-)

Russia could become North Korea's next treaty ally

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · June 17, 2024

ByChina News Reporter

✓ Link copied to clipboard!

Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to North Korea, set to begin on Tuesday, could pave the way for an agreement that elevates the neighbors' military partnership, according to South Korean intelligence.

Russia and North Korea on Monday confirmed Putin would be arriving on Tuesday for his two-day trip in a widely anticipated visit since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un invited the Russian president during a trip to Russia in September.

Seoul believes the bilateral relationship, which has strengthened since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, could be set to deepen. "There is a possibility that the cooperation between North Korea and Russia could become something close to the 1961 model," South Korea's Yonhap News Agency quoted one intelligence official as saying.

The official was referring to the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance signed in 1961 by North Korea and the then-Soviet Union, which committed both states to each other's defense in the event of an attack.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 left China, which had signed a similar 1961 treaty with North Korea, as that country's sole remaining defense treaty ally. The new round of treaties Moscow signed with Pyongyang in 2000 did not include a defense provision.

Such a pact could further complicate the security environment in East Asia, where South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. are deepening military cooperation on the Kim regime.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Far East Russian region of Amur on September 13, 2023. Putin is... Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Far East Russian region of Amur on September 13, 2023. Putin is set to arrive in North Korea June 18 for a two-day visit at Kim's invitation. Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images

"We will continue to monitor the situation and thoroughly analyze the results of Putin's visit," South Korean National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin said in a Yonhap News TV interview Sunday.

"Our response, which will be calibrated and firm, will be based on a comprehensive assessment of whether this amounts to rhetoric or something more, and to what extent any such rhetoric might go," Chang said, adding his country has warned Russia not to "go beyond a certain point."

The Russian foreign ministry and South Korean embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to written requests for comment.

The U.S., South Korea, and other countries have expressed concern over the countries' growing ties.

North Korea is believed to have helped replenish Russian stocks of ammunition as its forces continue their offensive in Ukraine.

North Korean missiles have reportedly been found in Ukraine after being fired by Russian forces, and satellites have captured images of Russian ships taking on cargo at North Korean ports.

Washington and Seoul suspect that in return, Russia has provided North Korea with technology that could benefit its military and surveillance satellite programs.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, South Korea's defense minister Shin Won-sik said his country has detected at least 10,000 shipping containers being transferred from North Korea to Russia, enough to hold nearly 5 million artillery shells.

Shin said he and his Japanese and U.S. counterparts would soon sign an agreement to formalize their defense coordination on North Korea.

"We condemn in the strongest possible terms the increasing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including North Korea's export and Russia's procurement of North Korean ballistic missiles in direct violation of relevant UNSCRs (United Nations Security Council resolutions), as well as Russia's use of these missiles against Ukraine," said the joint statement that emerged from the Group of Seven leaders' meeting last week in Apulia, Italy.

The leaders also expressed concern over Russia's potential transfers of nuclear or ballistic missile technology, calling on Pyongyang to abandon these programs and criticizing the Kim regime for prioritizing these over his people's welfare.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest in decades over North Korea's nuclear weapons program, recent monthlong series of missile tests, and spy satellites sent up by both Koreas since last fall.

The North has also withdrawn from dialogue with the South, changing its constitution to label Seoul an enemy and purging symbols and organizations associated with a future reunification. Further straining tensions, both sides have suspended a 2018 treaty to reduce tensions along the Demilitarized Zone separating the restive neighbors.

Though an armistice in 1953 ended three years of open hostilities, the Koreas are technically still at war, having not signed a peace treaty.

About the writer

Micah McCartney

Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian security issues, and cross-strait ties between China and Taiwan. Send tips or suggestions to Micah at m.mccartney@newsweek.com.

Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ...

To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · June 17, 2024

13. Defense minister discusses arms cooperation with Romanian presidential official

A partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.

Defense minister discusses arms cooperation with Romanian presidential official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · June 18, 2024

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik on Tuesday met with a Romanian presidential official in Romania and discussed expanding bilateral defense and arms cooperation, Shin's office said.

Shin held talks with Ion Oprisor, Romania's presidential adviser on national security, during his visit to the East European country to bolster strategic partnership in the defense area, the defense ministry said.

Oprisor expressed hope for deepening ties in defense and the arms industry, noting Romania plays a significant role on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's eastern flank, according to the ministry.

Shin is currently on a weeklong trip to Romania and Poland to boost Seoul's bid to secure more arms export deals.

Romania has shown interest in Korean weapons systems, such as K9 self-propelled howitzers, Redback infantry fighting vehicles and K2 tanks.

In April, President Yoon Suk Yeol and his Romanian counterpart, Klaus Iohannis, held a summit in Seoul and agreed to boost cooperation in defense and nuclear energy.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (L) shakes his hands with Romania's presidential adviser on national security Ion Oprisor during his visit to the East European nation in this photo provided by Shin's office on June 18, 2024. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · June 18, 2024

14. Supporting South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Aspirations

Conclusion:

Supporting South Korea’s nuclear submarine aspirations aligns with the strategic interests of the United States, reinforcing the U.S.-ROK alliance and contributing to regional stability. The operational advantages of SSNs, combined with the potential for enhanced military cooperation and burden sharing, present a compelling case for U.S. support. Furthermore, integrating South Korea’s capabilities with broader initiatives like AUKUS can foster a more cohesive and resilient regional security architecture. By addressing technological, non-proliferation, diplomatic, and economic challenges through strategic cooperation and transparent communication, the U.S. and South Korea can navigate the path toward a strengthened and more secure alliance in the Indo-Pacific region.

Supporting South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Aspirations

By Jihoon Yu

June 18, 2024

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/06/18/supporting_south_koreas_nuclear_submarine_aspirations_1038725.html?mc_cid=7dc3e77b78&mc_eid=70bf478f36

Supporting South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Aspirations: A Strategic Imperative for the U.S.

The geopolitical landscape of East Asia is increasingly characterized by rising tensions, particularly due to the assertive posture of North Korea and China. Amid this dynamic, South Korea’s ambition to develop a nuclear-powered submarine (SSN) capability has garnered significant attention. The United States' support for this aspiration can be understood through a confluence of strategic, operational, and diplomatic factors that underscore the mutual benefits for the U.S.-ROK alliance and regional stability.

Strategic and Operational Benefits of SSNs

Nuclear-powered submarines offer several strategic and operational advantages over their conventional counterparts. These include extended underwater endurance, higher speeds, and enhanced stealth capabilities. Such features are crucial for South Korea’s defense posture for several reasons. First, SSNs can remain submerged for prolonged periods without surfacing, providing a persistent presence in contested waters. This endurance is vital for surveillance, intelligence gathering, and maintaining a deterrent posture against adversaries like North Korea and China. Second, with higher speeds, SSNs can quickly reposition in response to emerging threats or crises. This agility allows for more dynamic and flexible military operations, enhancing South Korea’s ability to protect its maritime interests and respond to potential provocations. Third, the stealth capabilities of SSNs make them less detectable by enemy forces. This survivability ensures that South Korea can maintain a credible second-strike capability, a critical component of deterrence in a region where missile threats are prevalent. Finally, SSNs can serve as force multipliers, supporting a variety of missions including anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASuW), and special operations. Their versatility enhances the overall operational effectiveness of South Korea’s navy.

Strengthening the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Supporting South Korea’s SSN aspirations can significantly bolster the U.S.-ROK alliance, promoting greater cohesion and interoperability. By enabling South Korea to field a more capable and survivable submarine force, the U.S. enhances the overall deterrence posture of the alliance. A robust ROK submarine capability complicates adversaries’ strategic calculations, contributing to regional stability. Moreover, collaborating on SSN development allows for the exchange of advanced naval technologies and operational tactics. This knowledge transfer not only improves South Korea’s capabilities but also fosters deeper military-to-military ties and operational synergy between U.S. and ROK forces. Additionally, by supporting South Korea’s advanced military capabilities, the U.S. can promote a more balanced distribution of defense responsibilities within the alliance. This burden-sharing approach can lead to more sustainable and resilient security arrangements. Lastly, U.S. support for South Korea’s SSN program sends a strong message of commitment to regional allies and adversaries alike. It underscores the U.S. dedication to upholding the security of its allies in the face of evolving threats.

Contributions to Regional Stability and Relations with AUKUS

South Korea’s SSN program also has broader implications for regional stability and can complement initiatives like the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) security pact. The introduction of South Korean SSNs adds a significant strategic counterbalance to the growing naval capabilities of China and the persistent threat from North Korea. This balance is crucial for maintaining a stable security environment in the Indo-Pacific region. The AUKUS pact, which includes a significant focus on enhancing submarine capabilities, particularly SSNs, can be synergistic with South Korea’s aspirations. Coordinated efforts and shared technological advancements among AUKUS members and South Korea can lead to a more integrated and formidable regional security architecture. Furthermore, supporting South Korea’s SSN program can foster greater multilateral security cooperation. By encouraging collaboration and interoperability among regional allies, the U.S. can strengthen collective security mechanisms, contributing to a more robust regional security framework.

Obstacles and Strategies to Overcome Them

Despite the clear benefits, several obstacles could hinder South Korea’s pursuit of SSNs. Addressing these challenges requires a strategic approach. Developing SSNs involves significant technological and industrial challenges, including nuclear reactor design, miniaturization, and integration. To overcome these, South Korea can leverage technological cooperation and knowledge transfer from experienced partners like the U.S. and AUKUS members. Moreover, SSN development must align with international non-proliferation norms and treaties. South Korea can address these concerns by ensuring transparency in its program and adhering to stringent safeguards to prevent nuclear proliferation. Additionally, the development of nuclear-powered submarines can trigger political and diplomatic sensitivities, particularly with neighboring countries. To mitigate this, South Korea should engage in proactive diplomacy, clearly communicating its defensive intentions and commitment to regional stability. Finally, the financial burden of developing and maintaining SSNs is substantial. South Korea can manage these costs through phased development, international partnerships, and leveraging dual-use technologies that benefit both military and civilian sectors.

Conclusion

Supporting South Korea’s nuclear submarine aspirations aligns with the strategic interests of the United States, reinforcing the U.S.-ROK alliance and contributing to regional stability. The operational advantages of SSNs, combined with the potential for enhanced military cooperation and burden sharing, present a compelling case for U.S. support. Furthermore, integrating South Korea’s capabilities with broader initiatives like AUKUS can foster a more cohesive and resilient regional security architecture. By addressing technological, non-proliferation, diplomatic, and economic challenges through strategic cooperation and transparent communication, the U.S. and South Korea can navigate the path toward a strengthened and more secure alliance in the Indo-Pacific region.

Jihoon Yu is a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. Jihoon was the member of Task Force for South Korea’s light aircraft carrier project and Jangbogo-III submarine project. He is the main author of the ROK Navy’s Navy Vision 2045. His area of expertise includes the ROK-US alliance, the ROK-Europe security cooperation, national security, maritime security, and maritime strategy. He earned his MA in National Security Affairs from the US Naval Postgraduate School and PhD in Political Science from Syracuse University.

15. Putin to arrive in North Korea, with new treaty in focus

Putin to arrive in North Korea, with new treaty in focus

June 18, 2024 6:53 AM

By William Gallo

voanews.com · June 18, 2024

Seoul, South Korea —

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to arrive Tuesday in North Korea, where he is expected to sign a treaty outlining Moscow's expanded cooperation with Pyongyang, according to Russian state media.

Putin has decided to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his two-day visit, reported the Russian news agency TASS.

The report provided no details of the document, though earlier the agency quoted a Putin foreign policy aide as saying it would likely cover defense matters.

Earlier Tuesday, Putin vowed to work with North Korea to counter sanctions as both countries expand their "many-sided partnership," according to a letter published in North Korean state media.

In the letter, Putin said the two countries would develop trade mechanisms "not controlled by the West" and would "jointly oppose illegitimate unilateral restrictions."

Russia is a long-time supporter of North Korea. Though ties have sometimes been rocky, both countries recently found more reasons to work together, especially following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. officials say North Korea has provided Russia with 11,000 containers of munitions, as well as ballistic missiles, for use in the Ukraine battlefield. Both North Korea and Russia deny such weapons deals even though a growing number of independent observers have documented North Korean weapons being used against Ukrainian forces.

"Moscow and Pyongyang will likely continue to deny violations of international law but have notably shifted from hiding their illicit activities to flaunting their cooperation," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

Defense ties

U.S. officials have expressed concerns that Russia may provide advanced weapons or other help related to North Korea's nuclear program.

Such worries intensified last September when Kim inspected numerous advanced Russian weapons while touring several military sites in eastern Russia, including a modern space launch facility.

Though North Korea's latest satellite launches showed signs of Russian assistance, analysts debate how far defense cooperation would go, noting that Russia does not often share its most advanced military technology.

"These states do not share durable alliance institutions and values; they are only weakly bound together by resistance to the enforcement of international laws and norms," said Easley.

Treaty history

Analysts will closely parse the language of any new treaty signed by Putin and Kim.

Russia currently has comprehensive strategic partnerships with countries including Vietnam, Mongolia, and some Central Asian nations.

While such documents form the basis for Russia's "highest type of interstate relations," they do not amount to alliance treaties, observed former Russian diplomat Georgy Toloraya.

"I don't think that this treaty would include a clause which directly calls for military assistance, but it will certainly give room to imagine a situation where this could be provided," he said in an interview with VOA.

In 1961, North Korea and the Soviet Union signed a friendship and mutual assistance treaty that included a provision for automatic military intervention in emergencies.

That deal was abolished after the Soviet Union's collapse. The two countries signed a new treaty in 2000, but it focused on economic rather than military matters.

According to Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, the treaty being negotiated by Kim and Putin would replace all other bilateral treaties.

Obstacles

If Putin's letter is any indication, his visit will also likely focus on expanding economic ties, including by ramping up exchanges related to education, culture, and tourism.

However, this plan faces obstacles due to United Nations Security Council resolutions that prohibit a wide range of economic engagement with North Korea.

While Russia says it no longer supports U.N. sanctions on North Korea, it has not formally announced that it will stop observing them.

Instead, Russia may search for what it sees as loopholes that facilitate cooperation even in areas that are subject to U.N. sanctions, such as North Korean laborers earning income abroad.

For instance, North Korean IT specialists could work remotely from their home country without technically receiving income abroad, said Toloraya, a former member of the U.N. Panel of Experts, which was meant to monitor enforcement of the North Korea sanctions.

Russia earlier this year effectively abolished the U.N. panel – one of its boldest steps to unilaterally degrade the U.N. sanctions regime it once supported.

What North Korea wants

For Kim, Putin's visit is meant to provide a boost in domestic legitimacy, especially amid North Korea's increasingly public frictions with its main economic backer China, said Kim Gunn, who earlier this year stepped down as South Korea's top nuclear envoy.

"North Koreans feel nervous about that, because their economy is 99% dependent on China," said Kim, who is now a member of South Korea's National Assembly. "Kim Jong Un's answer is to say, 'Don't worry, we still have Russia."

In the lawmaker's view, Kim Jong Un also likely hopes that Putin's visit will give him leverage with Chinese President Xi Jinping, creating a situation where both Russia and China vie for North Korea's favor.

But, Kim Gunn added, the new Russia-North Korea relationship is likely a "marriage of convenience," rather than a restoration of Soviet-era ties.

"Russia is not the former Soviet Union," he said. "And Russia is at war in Ukraine – they are pouring all their energy into this war. There's not so much room for Russia to do anything with North Korea."

voanews.com · June 18, 2024

16. Washington, Seoul sound alarm over Putin’s visit to Pyongyang

Washington, Seoul sound alarm over Putin’s visit to Pyongyang

June 17, 2024 8:23 PM

By Christy Lee

voanews.com · June 17, 2024

washington —

Washington and Seoul have expressed alarm about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to Pyongyang, while Beijing says it has no intention of interfering with the cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

Putin will pay a state visit to North Korea on Tuesday and Wednesday, the North's official KCNA news agency announced on Monday. His trip to Pyongyang will be followed by a two-day state visit to Vietnam, where discussions will touch on trade and economic cooperation, the Kremlin said Monday.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry said it opposes Moscow and Pyongyang deepening their military cooperation through Putin’s trip to the country.

“All cooperation and exchanges between Russia and North Korea will need to abide by relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions and contribute toward the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula,” a spokesperson told VOA’s Korean Service on Monday.

Putin’s visit to the country, the first in 24 years, comes amid increased military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

North Korea has transferred approximately 10,000 containers that could hold nearly 5 million artillery shells to Russia to fight against Ukraine, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said in an interview with Bloomberg News on Friday.

All arms exports and imports by North Korea are sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council.

Both Pyongyang and Moscow have denied any arms dealings between them.

Putin’s trip to Pyongyang is expected to increase military cooperation that officially kicked off when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Russia in September 2023. Kim invited Putin to Pyongyang during his visit to Russia.

“We discourage any government from receiving President Putin,” a State Department spokesperson told VOA’s Korean Service on June 12.

“If he is able to travel freely, it could normalize Russia’s blatant violations of international law and inadvertently send the message that atrocities can be committed in Ukraine and elsewhere with impunity,” the spokesperson said.

Deepening cooperation between Russia and North Korea poses concern for the Korean Peninsula as well as for Ukraine as it defends its “freedom and independence against Russia’s brutal war,” the spokesperson added.

After the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023 for Russia’s alleged war crimes in Ukraine since its unprovoked invasion of the country in February 2022, Putin is limited in his international travels to allied countries.

Since his new presidential term began in May, Putin has visited Belarus, China and Uzbekistan.

In the meantime, Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA on Thursday that “China has no intention [of] interfer[ing] with the exchange and cooperation between two sovereign countries.”

He said, “Both DPRK and Russia are China’s friendly neighbors.” North Korea’s official name is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

China and Russia, both veto-wielding permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, have supported North Korea at council meetings held in the past several years by opposing new U.S.-led resolutions condemning North Korea’s ballistic missile launches banned by the U.N.

In March, Moscow vetoed a resolution granting the annual extension of a U.N. panel of experts that monitors sanctions on North Korea while Beijing abstained.

Michael Kimmage, who served on the U.S. State Department’s Policy Planning staff on Russia and Ukraine from 2014 to 2016, said, “Putin wishes to forge a long-term relationship with North Korea, and this would be reflected” in his visit to Pyongyang.

“Not only does North Korea supply Russia with weaponry to use in its war against Ukraine, but a more radical North Korea will pin the resources of Russia’s archenemy, the United States, in East Asia, helping to create a third zone of difficulty for Washington, in addition to Europe and the Middle East,” Kimmage said.

Kimmage, currently the chair at Catholic University of America’s history department, added that Russia’s other partner, China, may not want Pyongyang to be more provocative and may not be pleased with deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Earlier this month, Putin threatened to arm the West’s adversaries with long-range missiles that could target the West in response to NATO members, including the U.S., allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to target inside Russia.

Evans Revere, a former U.S. State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea, said Putin’s meeting with Kim in Pyongyang “could reveal the details of Russian support for North Korea.”

“Pyongyang is reportedly interested in missile guidance, engine and fuel technologies, avionics upgrades for its aircraft and assistance with its nuclear program,” he said.

Revere added, “Russia has a significant strategic and tactical interest in complicating the security calculus of the United States and its allies in Northeast Asia. Putin’s visit will soon demonstrate how far Moscow is prepared to go in pursuing that interest.”

VOA’s Soyoung Ahn contributed to this report.

voanews.com · June 17, 2024

17. Putin, in North Korea, Seeks Arms for Ukraine War

Putin, in North Korea, Seeks Arms for Ukraine War

A mendicant’s trip by Russian leader, caught in the thick of Ukraine war that shows no sign of abating

https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/putin-north-korea-seeks-arms-ukraine-war?utm

JUN 18, 2024

By: Shim Jae Hoon

Look up there, Kim. While I get my hand on your wallet. Photo from AP

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s gala June 18 visit to North Korea marks a major new departure in their bilateral relations, at a time of worsening global tensions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin is revisiting his Cold War ally as fresh tensions are running high on the divided Korean peninsula itself. Putin had to come hat-in-hand looking for massive new arms support to fight the protracted war in Europe, and North Korea as the only supplier of conventional arms is eager to oblige, hoping it can open the way for survival of its moribund economy.

The Russian leader arrived in Pyongyang for an overnight state visit to the wildly cheering welcome of hundreds of thousands of North Koreans filling the city, full of Stalinesque architecture. The visit was scheduled to include one-on-one discussions between the two leaders, as well as a gala concert, state reception, honor guards, document signings, and a statement to the media, Assistant to the Head of State Yuri Ushakov told reporters, according to Russia's Interfax news agency. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is determined to show that Pyongyang remains capable of offering a helping hand, even though Moscow breezily ignored its impoverished Cold War ally by opening ties with South Korea following the collapse of the Soviet system.

Although reports from Moscow indicated that Putin in Pyongyang might sign some kind of protocol or agreement underlining a bilateral security deal, analysts in Seoul speculated that this accord would by no means be a repeat of a full-blown mutual assistance agreement setting out Russia's automatic involvement in case of new war on the peninsula, such as the one which existed during the cold war, It probably could be a document setting out arms supply to Russia's war in Ukraine. Times have changed, and neither Moscow nor Pyongyang could afford another mutual assistance accord that automatically leads to war, the analysts said.

It was Putin’s second visit to Pyongyang in a quarter century, a new shot of life for their relations since Kim’s visit to the Russian Far East last September to inspect the Vostochny Cosmodrom, Russia’s main satellite launch point. Putin eagerly guided his guest at the facility, pointing out Russia’s capability in launching rockets and satellites. In exchange for helping Russia with conventional arms, Putin was ready to help with Kim’s ambition to launch a spy satellite of his own.

Although Victor Cha, a former U.S. national security official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote that the summit presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War, and predicted that "This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland," that seems farfetched. The north is already a military logistics lifeline for a Russia desperate to replace its depleted artillery and armored vehicles stocks that have been eaten up by the combat in Ukraine.

Indeed, Russia remains impressed with North Korea’s capability in conventional arms, especially in long range artillery and armored vehicles. Since the agreement to provide conventional arms to help Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow helped Kim to successfully launch a spy satellite earlier this year, and in exchange received more than 3.5 million 152mm artillery shells. According to South Korean analysts, Russia as of last February had received more than 3,000 containers filled with these shells. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller put the number of containers of munitions to Russia Far more, at 11,000.

Russia remains impressed by Kim’s ability to provide supplies in time, although some of the shells have been found to be defective, failing to ignite on firing, according to Ukrainian forces fighting at the front. One South Korean specialist has said that at least 20 percent of North Korean shells were duds, failing to explode.

It was thus a mendicant’s trip – Russia, caught in the thick of war it launched in Ukraine more than two years ago, appears desperately seeking help from its erstwhile client state North Korea. In turn for Kim’s help, Putin appears ready to consider responding to Kim’s own shopping list, reportedly containing five major areas of high-tech weapons system such as spy satellites, new-generation fighter jets, nuclear submarines, and hypersonic missiles. Kim last year submitted his own shopping list during the meeting with Putin at Vostochny Cosmodrom in Amur, not too far from the border with North Korea.

It is unknown if the deal was fully sealed, but shortly after Kim’s return from meeting with Putin, Kim was able to launch his first spy satellite. But given North Korea’s history of acquiring missile and nuclear technology through underground trade and espionage, Russia remains cautious in handing over some of its technology in view of North Korea’s past practice of illegally commercializing some Russian technology for sale to third world clients.

In addition to defense collaboration, Kim is said to be eager to strike a deal with Moscow on sending tens of thousands of North Korean workers to Russia as construction and factory workers as a source of foreign exchange earnings. With its labor force slowly declining, Russian industries and the farming sector are said to be in dire need of more workers. Thousands of North Korean workers are already in Russia’s far eastern region, logging and doing construction work. Some of them are also in China’s northeast manning factories and doing menial jobs that Chinese workers shun. Officials in Seoul believe Kim wants to increase the number of North Korean workers in China and Russia by as many as 100,000.

Just how much Putin remains ready to help Pyongyang in strategic areas remains in doubt, however, as both sides must stay watchful of China’s response. The fact that China not only shares a long border with the North, but exercises considerable power as the main source of food and energy aid to the Pyongyang regime, limits Kim’s strategic choice and collaboration with Moscow. Although China recently stayed out of the recent European peace confab on Ukraine, it placed its own independent strategic interests on matters concerning Asia. For instance, although Beijing has kept a distance on the Ukrainian War, it recently chose an independent course rather than follow Russia’s line on regional issues, a good example of this being its abstention on the UN Security Council resolution extending sanctions on the Pyongyang regime, which Moscow opposed.

Similarly, China has recently returned to trilateral summit talks with Japan and South Korea after a four-and-a-half-year absence. In his talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, China’s Premier Li Qiang reiterated China’s continuing policy of expanding trade with these Asian export giants. China is also taking a different stance regarding the situation on the peninsula. On the heels of its recent return to the trilateral summit, Beijing has informed Seoul that it will resume annual two-plus-two talks with South Korea on bilateral relations. Thus Beijing will shortly be sending its deputy foreign minister and deputy defense minister to Seoul for annual binational consultations. Beijing clearly is opting for stability, not confrontation.

While Europe is concerned over Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine, North Korea’s strengthening missile capability with Putin’s help keeps Seoul and Tokyo exercised, especially with North Korea aggravating tensions across the Demilitarized Zone in recent weeks by sending balloons packed with trash, as Asia Sentinel reported on June 6. Tensions have also risen across the 155-mile demilitarized zone with North Korean troops continually approaching the military demarcation line, apparently to plant more mines. In retaliation, Seoul has suspended an agreement on limiting the scale of military exercises near the demarcation line.

On the eve of Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, South Korean officials served notice to Kremlin diplomats “not to cross the line” on the reported transfer of missile technology. “We have told Russians to be careful not to go over certain limit” in their missile deals with the Pyongyang regime, a senior security official told a background briefing. The message was clear: South Korea does possess certain leverage in trade and investment that Russia in this time of tension should not ignore.

18. North Korea Has Lost ‘Many’ Troops to Mines in DMZ, South Says

Hmmm... I cannot recall ever seeing north Korean casualty estimates from mines in the DMZ. But we know South Korean and US soldiers have been victims of mines.

North Korea Has Lost ‘Many’ Troops to Mines in DMZ, South Says

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 18, 2024

North Korean soldiers have been sent into the mine-strewn buffer zone to do construction work since November, the South Korean military said on Tuesday.

Listen to this article · 3:53 min Learn more

South Korea’s Defense Ministry says this image, which it released on Tuesday, shows North Korean soldiers working near the countries’ border.

Reporting from Seoul

June 18, 2024, 4:18 a.m. ET

A number of North Korean soldiers have been killed or injured by land mines in the Demilitarized Zone that divides the Koreas since late last year, when the North began sending them into the buffer zone to do construction work, the South Korean military said on Tuesday.

The work has been underway since November, when North Korea suspended a 2018 agreement with the South to cease all hostile activity around the DMZ, the South’s military said. It said the troops had been sent into the North’s half of the 2.5-mile-wide buffer zone for work that included rebuilding military guard posts that the North demolished under that deal.

The North had pressed on with the work despite “many deaths and injuries” caused by several land mine explosions, the South’s military said, without providing further details.

The South’s military mentioned the casualties as it announced that a group of North Korean soldiers had briefly entered South Korean territory on Tuesday, crossing the military demarcation line that is the official border within the DMZ. It was the second such incident this month; about 20 soldiers did so on June 9, some carrying small arms and others only construction tools, the military said.

On both occasions, the soldiers retreated after the South fired warning shots, according to the military, which said it considered the intrusions unintentional. The border line is not always clearly visible; there are markers at intervals, but some are missing because of floods or a lack of maintenance, and the line is particularly easy to miss in the summer when vegetation is thick, officials say.

But the episodes added to a sense of tension that has grown between the Koreas in recent weeks, with North Korea using balloons to dump trash on the South and South Korea retaliating by briefly using loudspeakers to blare propaganda into the North.

The DMZ was created as a buffer between the countries’ two armies after a truce halted the Korean War in 1953. It is heavily strewed with mines, many of them dating to the war. Both Koreas have often lost civilians and soldiers to the mines there.

During the Cold War, both sides used loudspeakers and balloons to send propaganda across the border, but they agreed to de-escalate such activity after the first inter-Korean summit meeting in 2000.

In recent years, however, North Korean defectors living in the South have been using balloons to send leaflets into the North that are sharply critical of its leader, Kim Jong-un, and his government. That has infuriated Pyongyang, which cited the balloons as a factor when it blew up a building on its territory where officials from both Koreas used to meet.

South Korea later banned sending propaganda balloons into the North. But its Constitutional Court struck the ban down, and the defectors resumed their balloon campaign in recent weeks. In response, North Korea began sending hundreds of its own balloons, carrying not propaganda literature but common trash like cigarette butts and compost.

The North’s recent activities at the border are part of a broader policy of confrontation with South Korea and its American allies since 2019, when the personal diplomacy between Mr. Kim and then-President Donald J. Trump broke down. Since then, Mr. Kim has renounced all dialogue with Seoul and Washington and doubled down on building more nuclear missiles, threatening to use them against the South should war break out again in Korea. In recent years, he has deepened ties with Russia, a Cold War-era ally.

The South’s military said the North Korean construction work within the DMZ — which has included building new tank traps and planting fresh land mines — could also be an attempt to keep his soldiers and other North Koreans from fleeing to South Korea through the buffer zone.

Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 18, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

Company Name | Website