Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Compassion is the antitoxin of the soul: where there is compassion even the most poisonous impulses remain relatively harmless."

– Eric Hoffer

"Because power corrupts, society's demands for moral authority and character increase as the importance of the position increases."

– John Adams

"The sole and basic source of our strength is the solidarity of workers, peasants and the intelligentsia, the solidarity of the nation, the solidarity of people who seek to live in dignity, truth, and in harmony with their conscience."

– Lech Walesa

Apologies for the abridged version today. I only have a short layover in Istanbul and theThe wiFi was spotty on the flight her and I am not sure what service we will on the flight to Ulaanbaatar.

1. Is There A Famine In North Korea?

2. Behind Shuttered Borders: A view into North Korea’s COVID-19 experiences

3. North Korea’s Pandemic ‘Miracle’ Was a Deadly Lie, Report Says

4. Iran's North Korea Nuclear Connection-Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr./Talkline with Zev Brenner

5. Lee, Ishiba to bolster cooperation with U.S. to cope with geopolitical crises, including N. Korea

6. S. Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint air drills in 1st 3-way exercise under Lee gov't

7. S. Korea voices concerns over N. Korea's reported plan to send military construction workers to Russia

8. Military to conduct border firing drills as planned despite loudspeaker campaign pause

9. The liberal-democratic ephemera that was South Korea

10. North Korea-China trade jumps to $230M in May, bringing yearly total to over $1B

11. Lee Jae-myung spotlights North Korean issues in G7 talks with Ishiba, Carney

12. In a quiet diplomatic move, India appoints ambassador to North Korea after 4 years

1. Is There A Famine In North Korea?

Thank you to the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea for publishing this seminal work from Andrew Natsios and his team at the Bush School at Texas A&M.

The 152 page report can be accessed here: https://www.hrnk.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IS-THERE-A-FAMINE-IN-NORTH-KOREA.pdf

Andrew Natsios was the Assistant Administrator to USAID before the Arduous March (Famine) in north Korea and the USAID Administrator just after it. As we were planning for the potential collapse of the Kim family regime in the 1990s the work of USAID was incredibly important. They mapped the entire infrastructure of north Korea so that we had practical information that helped us plan. He published "The Great Famine" in 1991 at the US Institute for Peace.

You can read about Bob Gersony's work for Andrew Natsios in Robert Kapaln's book, The Good American: The Epic Life of Bob Gersony

Bob Gersony’s North Korea–China Mission

Gersony traveled to the China–North Korea frontier to interview refugee populations forcibly fleeing North Korea. His goal was to determine whether U.S. food aid was reaching starving civilians—but he discovered it was being captured by military and police forces instead.

In a 2004 oral history, Andrew Natsios recalled that he had asked Gersony to conduct assessments in multiple conflict zones—including at the China–North Korea border .

As confirmed in a 2003 Senate hearing, Natsios stated that although Gersony provided valuable insights on North Korea via interviews, no formal report was ever drafted—the findings remained verbal and weren't published

In Summary

What happened: Gersony interviewed refugees on the China–North Korea border to assess whether U.S. food aid reached North Korean civilians.

Commissioned by: Andrew Natsios, who valued Gersony’s field-based, candid reporting.

Findings: Food aid was being seized by North Korean military/police, not reaching famine victims; no formal written report was published—only verbal feedback.

Impact: This primary-source intelligence helped shape humanitarian aid policy and highlights the authoritarian regime’s appropriation of aid.

I expect this report will be valuable to all those who study north Korea.

Is There A Famine In North Korea?

June 17, 2025

North Korea has long experienced cycles of food insecurity. Most famously, from 1994 to 1998 North Korea suffered a famine that is estimated to have killed up to 3 million people. After the collapse of the country’s public distribution system (PDS) for food rations in the 1990s, food insecurity has continued to be a chronic issue for North Koreans. Beginning in 2020, the central government’s COVID-19 restrictions severely restricted North Koreans’ most important coping mechanisms for food insecurity, implementing lockdowns and further restrictions on market activity. In 2022, the UN publication “The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World” reported that 40% of North Koreans were malnourished. With poor harvests, higher food prices, border closures from the COVID-19 pandemic, and restrictive government policies, evidence suggests that North Korean food insecurity has been at its worst since the 1990’s famine.

The inaccessibility of robust data in North Korea requires the use of diverse research methods to determine the extent of the current food insecurity. Consequently, this report utilizes various approaches examining the time period between the years of 2018-2024. Sources include open- source reporting, mapping and Geographic Information System (GIS) data, and international trade data. The report also uses the famine theories of both Amartya Sen and Thomas Malthus, in addition to the practice-informed writings of Frederick Cuny.

Research into North Korea will always lack the exact data that would allow for complete certainty. However, by examining the social, economic, agricultural, and political aspects of the current North Korean food situation, this report ultimately provides a holistic picture of the acute food insecurity faced by the North Korean people.

2. Behind Shuttered Borders: A view into North Korea’s COVID-19 experiences

The full 26 page report can be downloaded here: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2025-06/250617_Cha_Shuttered_Borders.pdf?VersionId=kP6196GgANw4JjvB7xturjhXggxa4Tii

Note that Robert Collins' comprehensive report of 108 pages was published by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea on 9 June, 2025: CORONAVIRUS AND NORTH KOREAN HUMAN RIGHTS: Regime Response and Future Instability Scenarios. it can be accessed in PDF here: https://www.hrnk.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/CORONAVIRUS-AND-NORTH-KOREAN-HUMAN-RIGHTS-Regime-Response-and-Future-Accountability-Scenarios-1.pdf

Note that Bob's report was funded on the proverbial shoestring and could only be produced because of Bob's extensive network of Koreans from the north and their contacts inside north Korea (and because he speaks the north Korean dialects fluently). If only HRNK could be funded on the same level as the prominent think tanks with their rich donors and benefactors. I am hoping that the current Trump administration will fund HRNK as it did in the first Trump administration. It provided approximately $800,000. The Obama administration provided just over $1 million over 8 years and we received zero dollars from the Biden administration (yet Biden's State Department benefited from all HRNK research and reports for its periodic review of human rights).

Behind Shuttered Borders: A view into North Korea’s COVID-19 experiences

Report by Victor Cha, Katrin Fraser Katz, and Seiyeon Ji

Published June 17, 2025

https://www.csis.org/analysis/behind-shuttered-borders

Available Downloads

This joint report was originally published by the George W. Bush Institute on June 17, 2025.

This report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in cooperation with the George W. Bush Institute, is to our knowledge the first published review of human rights abuses inside North Korea associated with the Covid-19 global pandemic. Between January 2020 and August 2023, the regime imposed one of the world’s most extreme lockdowns—sealing its borders and halting all exchanges related to trade, tourism, diplomacy, and humanitarian aid, and enforcing rigid internal travel restrictions—under the guise of “anti-epidemic” measures. With no independent reporting possible during this period, the regime claimed a flawless record, denying any Covid-19 cases for the first two years and reporting only 74 deaths when it finally acknowledged an outbreak in May 2022.

This report is based on the voices of 100 ordinary North Korean residents amplified through micro-surveys conducted in the second half of 2023, just as the country’s lockdown restrictions and border controls were lifted. While the report’s findings should not be interpreted as a complete representation of views in North Korea, they still provide rare insights into the lived experiences of ordinary North Koreans and expose key patterns of government culpability and negligence in managing the pandemic. Drawing on these findings, the authors discuss policy implications and offer recommendations for governments and international organizations seeking to improve the welfare of the North Korean people.

This report was made possible by generous support to CSIS and the George W. Bush Institute.

3. North Korea’s Pandemic ‘Miracle’ Was a Deadly Lie, Report Says

I wonder what reports the reporter is referring to. I cann find either of them cited in this article.

North Korea’s Pandemic ‘Miracle’ Was a Deadly Lie, Report Says

Officials drastically understated outbreaks and deaths, depriving citizens of help, two U.S. research groups report, citing interviews with people inside North Korea.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/world/asia/hfo-north-korea-pandemic-lie.html

Listen to this article · 5:21 min Learn more

Share full article
21

A photograph released by North Korean state media showed a worker disinfecting a vehicle while a civilian had his temperature checked as a precaution against the coronavirus in Pyongyang, North Korea, in 2020.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press

By Choe Sang-Hun

Reporting from Seoul

June 17, 2025,

7:10 a.m. ET

North Korea has long claimed that it defeated the Covid-19 pandemic without vaccines, losing only 74 lives in what it called “a miracle unprecedented in the world’s public health history.” But a report released on Tuesday said the government lied and left many of its people to die without proper health care or access to outside help.

As the pandemic raged, the already woeful economic and public health conditions of ordinary North Koreans rapidly worsened as a result of their government’s efforts, especially in the first two years, to deny that the virus was spreading, according to a report compiled by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and the George W. Bush Institute. Pyongyang’s repeated rejections of international help and its draconian crackdown on the movement of people made their suffering worse, the report said.

The authors said their report was based on rare interviews with 100 people inside isolated North Korea — conducted by an outside intermediary that engaged them in “casual, in-person conversations.” Their findings provide a rare glimpse into the scale of human distress inside the country during the pandemic. One woman interviewed for the report said that there were so many deaths in nursing homes in the winter of 2020 that “there weren’t enough coffins.”

“Deaths and suffering due to suspected Covid-19 cases were widespread in North Korea starting in 2020,” well before it reported its first outbreak in May 2022, the report said.

“The government’s negligence was nothing short of abominable,” it noted.

Citizens had virtually no access to vaccines, no antiviral medications, and minimal supply of personal protective equipment, although they had been available globally for more than a year, the report said. Nearly 90 of the 100 interviewees said they had not been tested for Covid. Nearly 40 reported not having received a vaccine during the pandemic. And 92 said they suspected that they or people they knew had been infected, though there was no way to be sure.

Local health officials misreported Covid deaths and diagnoses because of fear of punishment for not aligning with the government’s claim that there were no cases, it said. So did citizens, because reporting that they were sick did not bring help from the government but rather forced detention or even collective lockdowns, either of which would have worsened already-acute food shortages.

“This resulted in a doubling of misinformation whereby the government and citizenry each lied to the other, creating further spread of the pandemic,” the report said.

Image

A photograph released by North Korean state media showed North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, wearing a face mask amid the Covid-19 pandemic, while inspecting a pharmacy in 2022.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Reuters

When the virus began spreading globally in early 2020, North Korea shut its borders and ordered troops to shoot to kill anyone trying to cross them. It reported “zero cases” of the virus until it admitted to an outbreak in May 2022. But three months after that, North Korean state media declared a “brilliant victory” in “exterminating” the virus, thanking its leader, Kim Jong-un, for “his death-defying will for the people’s happiness and well-being.”

Some nations like China helped contain infections, at least initially, by closing borders and enforcing lockdowns, as North Korea tried to. But experts outside North Korea have long cast doubt on the North’s pandemic-beating claims, in part because it lacked testing kits and laboratories to accurately track a major outbreak. They have warned that the pandemic provided Mr. Kim with excuses to tighten surveillance and control on his people even as his pandemic-related crackdown was bound to worsen the scarcity of food and medicine.

The report by the U.S. research groups said that the interviews took place in the second half of 2023 through “an organization that has a successful track record of managing discrete and careful questionnaires in North Korea.” Several nongovernmental groups, some of them run by defectors from the North, gather information through informants inside North Korea.

The interviewees’ accounts could not be independently verified in the famously closed-off country, but the assessment that the North’s government shirked its responsibility echoed findings in a human rights report published by the South Korean government last year.

That report, based on the accounts of recent North Korean defectors, said that when North Korea began vaccinating pockets of its population starting in June 2022, health officials told them to thank Mr. Kim’s generosity because they said the vaccine “cost as much as a cow.”

Mr. Kim’s regime sought to use the pandemic as political propaganda, the report by the two U.S. research institutes also indicated. Interviewees reported that state media reports often emphasized how bad outbreaks were in other countries, while claiming that North Korea was safe thanks to Mr. Kim’s leadership. After finally admitting to an outbreak, North Korea accused South Korea of spreading the virus across the border.

More than one-third of the 100 interviewees still believed that South Korea sent the virus to their country, the report said.

Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea.

4. Iran's North Korea Nuclear Connection-Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr./Talkline with Zev Brenner

35 minute podcast worth listening to as Dr. Bruce Bechtol describes north Korean support to Iran - or as I like to think CRInK cooperation, collaboration, collusion.

Iran's North Korea Nuclear Connection-Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr./Talkline with Zev Brenner

https://youtu.be/NmfkNmBol0g

views

Streamed live 3 hours ago

America's leading Jewish program with newsmaker guests and celebrity interviews. www.talklinenetwork.com 212-769-1925

5. Lee, Ishiba to bolster cooperation with U.S. to cope with geopolitical crises, including N. Korea

Some good news.

(2nd LD) Lee, Ishiba to bolster cooperation with U.S. to cope with geopolitical crises, including N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · June 18, 2025

(ATTN: UPDATES with presidential office's statement, photo; CHANGES headline)

By Kim Eun-jung

KANANASKIS, Canada, June 17 (Yonhap) -- President Lee Jae Myung and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba agreed to bolster three-way cooperation with the United States to respond to geopolitical crises, including North Korea, as they held their first summit on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Canada, Lee's office said.

During the 30-minute summit, Lee and Ishiba exchanged opinions on ways to maintain regional peace and stability and agreed that the two countries should seek closer cooperation, according to Lee's office.

"They agreed to further develop trilateral cooperation among the Republic of Korea, the United States and Japan to respond to various regional geopolitical crises, including the North Korean issue, and to deepen bilateral cooperation between the Republic of Korea and Japan," the office said in a statement, referring to South Korea by its official name.

The leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to resuming shuttle diplomacy and advancing related discussions between their respective governments, it noted.

Lee also told Ishiba that South Korea and Japan should foster future-oriented cooperation amid challenges in global trade.

Lee called Japan an "inseparable" nation that shares the same front yard with South Korea, expressing hopes the two nations can advance their bilateral ties in a future-oriented manner.

"As challenges in the international trade environment and global affairs continue to grow, I believe close and complementary partners like the Republic of Korea and Japan can greatly benefit from cooperating in many areas," Lee told Ishiba, according to Lee's office.

President Lee Jae Myung (R) shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during their talks held on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 17, 2025. (Yonhap)

South Korea and Japan are among the world's major exporters most affected by U.S. President Donald Trump's steep trade tariffs on vehicles, auto parts, steel and aluminum, as well as country-specific tariffs. Both governments are engaged in negotiations to mitigate the potential economic fallout.

Ishiba also stressed the importance of the bilateral relations amid mounting geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and expressed hope that cooperation would be boosted at all levels to mark the 60th anniversary of normalizing the diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Ahead of his trip, Lee delivered a video message to an event commemorating the anniversary, during which he called for the nations to work together for a better future.

President Lee Jae Myung (R) holds a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 17, 2025. (Yonhap)

Lee, who has pledged pragmatic diplomacy, has signaled a shift from his previously more critical stance on Japan, aiming to sustain the positive momentum in bilateral relations that significantly improved under the previous conservative administration.

He has pledged to pursue a "two-track" approach, promoting forward-looking cooperation while addressing historical issues separately, particularly those stemming from Japan's 1910–45 colonial rule.

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · June 18, 2025

6.S. Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint air drills in 1st 3-way exercise under Lee gov't

Excellent - we must sustain trilateral cooperation. Recall Xi's "three no's" to Moon Jae In in 2017 - No more THAAD, no integrated missile defense, and no trilateral alliance.

(LEAD) S. Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint air drills in 1st 3-way exercise under Lee gov't | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 18, 2025

(ATTN: ADDS details, byline; CHANGES photo)

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea, the United States and Japan held combined air drills Wednesday in an effort to strengthen their trilateral security cooperation against North Korean threats, the South's Air Force said.

It marked the first joint air exercise among the three countries since President Lee Jae Myung took office earlier this month. The three countries last conducted joint air drills, involving two U.S. B-1B bombers, on Jan. 15.

Wednesday's air exercise, which took place in waters off the southern island of Jeju, involved two South Korean F-15K fighter jets, six U.S. F-16 fighters and two Japanese F-2 fighters, according to the Air Force.

"The drills were conducted to bolster South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation to deter North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats and maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region," it said.

The Air Force said it plans to continue to conduct such trilateral drills on the back of a firm South Korea-U.S. alliance.

The latest exercise came a day after Russia said North Korea has promised to send thousands of military construction workers and sappers to the western Russian region of Kursk to help reconstruction efforts amid their deepening military alignment.

A South Korean F-15K fighter jet departs from an air base in Daegu on June 18, 2025, in this photo provided by the Air Force. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 18, 2025

7. S. Korea voices concerns over N. Korea's reported plan to send military construction workers to Russia

Of course this is what north Korea does. They have military engineers and construction workers throughout the Middle East and Africa. This should not be a surprise. They have been doing this kind of work for decades. We just choose to ignore it.

S. Korea voices concerns over N. Korea's reported plan to send military construction workers to Russia | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · June 18, 2025

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea voiced concerns Wednesday following reports that North Korea is planning to send thousands of military construction workers to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine.

Russian media reports said Tuesday that the North will send 5,000 military construction workers and 1,000 sappers to Russia's Kursk region, in another possible sign of their deepening military alignment.

"It's an issue of concern. We do not support (the North's troop deployment)," a presidential official told reporters when asked about the reported deployment plan in Calgary, Canada, where President Lee Jae Myung was attending the Group of Seven summit.

The foreign ministry in Seoul also voiced deep concern, urging Pyongyang to stop such actions immediately.

"We express deep concern over the continuing illegal cooperation between North Korea and Russia," a ministry official said. "We urge the North to stop such actions immediately."

"The accepting and hiring of North Korean workers abroad is a clear violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. Cooperation between North Korea and Russia must fully comply with UNSC resolutions and international law, and should not pose a threat to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula or around the world," the official added.

The announcement came as Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited the North Korean capital on a special mission from Russian President Vladimir Putin and held talks with Kim earlier in the day, as the two countries prepare to mark the first anniversary of their mutual defense treaty.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) meets with Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang on June 17, 2025, in this file photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · June 18, 2025

8. Military to conduct border firing drills as planned despite loudspeaker campaign pause

Hopefully the Lee Administration will not try to revert to the Comprehensive Military agreement of 2018. This training is very necessary to sustain frontline forces readiness.

Military to conduct border firing drills as planned despite loudspeaker campaign pause | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 18, 2025

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- The military was set to conduct artillery drills near the border with North Korea this week, officials said, in what would mark the first such exercise under the Lee Jae Myung government that has suspended loudspeaker broadcasts against North Korea along the border.

Under the plan, units under the Army's 7th Division will conduct drills involving self-propelled howitzers at a front-line range located in Hwacheon, about 90 kilometers northeast of the capital, Wednesday and Thursday, according to the military.

The drills come amid speculations that the government could cease such border drills under Lee's pledge to seek peace and stability in the border area.

As part of his election pledges, Lee vowed to restore a now-scrapped inter-Korean military reduction pact and halt leafleting and loudspeaker campaigns in the area.

The military suspended propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea along the heavily fortified border last week. Pyongyang halted its broadcasts of loud noise targeting the South in response.

This file photo, provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Feb. 19, 2025, shows the Marine Corps conducting maritime firing drills on western border islands. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

South Korea fully suspended the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement in June last year in the wake of North Korea's trash balloon campaigns and attempts to disrupt GPS signals near border islands.

The move enabled the military to resume drills to bolster front-line defenses. Previously, artillery and naval drills, as well as regiment-level field maneuvers, were banned due to land and maritime buffer zones set up in the area. No-fly zones had also been designated near the border to prevent accidental aircraft clashes.

The military has since conducted a number of ground and maritime artillery drills in the border area, with the Marine Corps also expected to hold its quarterly live-fire drills on the western border islands later this month.

In a June 12 press briefing, the defense ministry said the military has not yet received any order on a possible change in border drills.

"There is planned training this month ... there are no changes so far," ministry spokesperson Jeon Ha-kyou said.

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 18, 2025

9. The liberal-democratic ephemera that was South Korea

I do not think I have read such a negative assessment about South Korea, not even from Gordon Chang, Tara O, and Grant Newsham (though they have.a lot of negative things to say).

But I am not ready to give up on Korea. I remain bullish and I beleive South Korea's democracy will remain strong in the long run

Excerpts:

It is tempting to believe the alliance can ride out these storms—that shared interests will trump domestic shifts. But interests alone are not enough to sustain an alliance built on the rhetoric of shared values. The widening gap between official narrative and on-the-ground reality corrodes trust, both within Korea and between the two governments.

Washington will continue to ignore the decay of Korean liberal democracy. It’s important to remember, democracy never was a priority. An increasingly transactional relationship will be the result.

The illusion of South Korea as a liberal-democratic beacon has served its purpose. It justified decades of alliance investment and comforted American elites. Clinging to it is getting more difficult.

The time to re-imagine Korea—clear-eyed, unsentimental, and attuned to its evolving political realities—is now. Otherwise, when the fall comes, it will take Washington by surprise—and it will be too late to adjust.

Junotane Korea

Gift a subscription

Commentary

The liberal-democratic ephemera that was South Korea

https://www.junotane.com/p/the-liberal-democratic-ephemera-that-was-korea?utm

The illusion of South Korea as a liberal-democratic beacon justified decades of alliance investment. Clinging to it (or even democracy in America) is getting more difficult.

Jun 17, 2025

∙ Paid

As the Trump Administration sends in troops against the wishes of the Governor of California to quell riots and near-daily ICE raids rock American cities, it’s hardly becoming to point out challenges to democracy anywhere else in the world - let alone South Korea.

After all, common knowledge has it that an authoritarian takeover was avoided by the power of the people, the president was impeached, and the presumptive protest leader became president. South Korea lived up to its reputation.

For years, South Korea has been marketed in Washington as a liberal-democratic beacon in East Asia—a dependable ally, a model democracy, a society committed to human rights and rule of law.

This flattering narrative has become an article of faith across the American political spectrum. Hawks and doves alike point to Korea as proof that economic development leads to democratic governance - and sustained strategic alignment with the U.S. is the natural outcome.

What if this image was just an illusion seen through liberal-democratic tinted glasses? What if beneath the surface, South Korea was far from the liberal-democratic beacon in East Asia taken for granted? What if America never cared about South Korea’s democracy in the first place?

South Korea’s politics are highly polarized. Both accuse the other of seeking authoritarian rule. The scary thing is, both may be right.

Beneath the surface, South Korea is entering a period of creeping illiberalism and deepening polarization. The country’s democratic institutions still function on paper—elections are held, courts issue rulings, a free press technically exists. Why, they even worked to overcome the imposition of martial law! Still, their substance is eroding.

Political combat has come to dominate every institution. The National Assembly is a bitterly partisan theater; the prosecutorial system is weaponized against opponents, no matter which party holds power; press freedom is increasingly constrained by political pressure, regulatory threats, and lawsuits. Both major parties contribute to this decay.

The new administration of President Lee Jae-myung, which swept to power on a populist-nationalist and democratic wave, is already pursuing measures that will shrink civic space and concentrate executive power. One of Lee’s first moves was to appoint a lawyer who served as his defense counsel in recent trials for appointment to the Constitutional Court - his team immediately dismissed the notion that there was a conflict of interest. Not exactly a strong democratic reformist start.

The Korean right, sidelined for now, did much the same when it held office. No side offers a credible vision for restoring liberal pluralism; both view politics as a zero-sum struggle for control. Yet American policymakers seem almost willfully blind.

The U.S. government’s Korea policy remains locked in Cold War logic: so long as Korea hosts U.S. forces, buys U.S. weapons, and aligns rhetorically against China, its domestic trajectory is treated as a secondary concern. The Biden administration, seeking stability amid global turmoil, largely looked the other way as Korea’s democratic culture frayed. Now, as the Trump administration returns and pushes for even more transactional alliance terms, that blindness will only deepen.

Trump’s team sees Korea first and foremost as a burden-sharer, a potential pocketbook ally in an increasingly mercantile foreign policy. If Korea raises defense spending and supports Taiwan contingencies, Trump will ignore creeping illiberalism. If it resists U.S. demands, the alliance will be threatened on bluntly economic grounds, not over democracy. Either way, the liberal-democratic veneer Washington clings to is irrelevant to the real drivers of U.S.–Korea relations.

The American left, meanwhile, is trapped in its own wishful narrative. Many U.S. progressives remain attached to an outdated view of South Korea as an emerging Nordic model—a socially advanced, human-rights-friendly democracy with a vibrant civil society. They continue to mythologize Lee Jae-myung as a principled progressive, blind to the authoritarian tendencies in his political machine. They overlook the Korean left’s growing embrace of nationalism, censorship, and anti-pluralist rhetoric. The assumption that “left” equals “liberal” is a dangerous category error—but one that remains entrenched in U.S. discourse.

What neither side in America seems to grasp is that Korea’s political system is fragmenting. The country’s social contract is under immense strain. Demographic collapse, generational divides, and economic insecurity are fueling radicalization across the spectrum. The right is going further right, and the left, further left. Younger Koreans are abandoning establishment parties and flirting with extremes.

Online spaces, once vibrant forums for dissent, are being corralled by social media algorithms and hardly controlled by regulatory regimes justified in the name of civility but clearly serving political ends. Civil society organizations are either co-opted or marginalized. The space for genuine pluralism is shrinking fast.

“You’re a foreigner and don’t understand Korea” and “You’re forgetting the vibrant democratic protest culture.” The first is half true, the second is completely false.

I am a foreigner. There’s always a gap in understanding of Korea between a foreigner and a Korean. It does not always lead to misunderstanding and sometimes allows greater insight—particularly in political and strategic analysis when cultural frames are removed.

The vibrant democratic protest culture—it’s a myth. From the outside, it seems to be inherited from the democracy movement of the 1980s and sparks images of brave individuals fighting an authoritarian government. In reality, it is today, a highly organized, firmly controlled political tool, manipulated and directed in a hierarchic structure.

Now, there will not be an immediate, dramatic authoritarian turn. Korea will not suddenly become North Korea. But it is sliding toward a brittle, illiberal democracy—a system where electoral competition persists but real checks and balances wither; where dissent is tolerated only within tightly policed bounds; where media serve political masters; and where the rule of law bends to partisan needs.

By the time Washington notices, it will be way too late. The machinery of alliance management—the Pentagon, the State Department, think tanks—remains narrowly focused on strategic and military cooperation. The underlying assumptions of “shared values” will endure in official speeches long after they cease to reflect reality.

When the façade finally cracks—perhaps amid a political purge, a media crackdown, or a manufactured national security crisis—the shock in Washington will be palpable. Just like Yoon’s attempt at martial law, the surprise will result in silence, and then muted responses.

Analysts will feign surprise. Editorial pages will wring their hands. But the warning signs are visible now to anyone willing to look.

The geopolitical consequences will be serious. A brittle, illiberal Korea will be a less reliable ally—not because it will tilt toward China (although it may), but because its domestic politics will grow inward-looking and unstable. U.S. demands, especially under Trump’s confrontational style, will provoke nationalist backlash. Coordination on regional strategy will become harder. The U.S.–Korea alliance will be held hostage to Korea’s internal political swings in ways Washington is unprepared to manage.

It is tempting to believe the alliance can ride out these storms—that shared interests will trump domestic shifts. But interests alone are not enough to sustain an alliance built on the rhetoric of shared values. The widening gap between official narrative and on-the-ground reality corrodes trust, both within Korea and between the two governments.

Washington will continue to ignore the decay of Korean liberal democracy. It’s important to remember, democracy never was a priority. An increasingly transactional relationship will be the result.

The illusion of South Korea as a liberal-democratic beacon has served its purpose. It justified decades of alliance investment and comforted American elites. Clinging to it is getting more difficult.

The time to re-imagine Korea—clear-eyed, unsentimental, and attuned to its evolving political realities—is now. Otherwise, when the fall comes, it will take Washington by surprise—and it will be too late to adjust.

10. North Korea-China trade jumps to $230M in May, bringing yearly total to over $1B

CRInK cooperation, collaboration, and collusion is everywhere.

And Kim JongUn gets richer and the Korean people in the north suffer more.

North Korea-China trade jumps to $230M in May, bringing yearly total to over $1B

Official data underscores strong growth this year despite speculation about strained ties due to DPRK support for Russia

https://www.nknews.org/2025/06/north-korea-china-trade-jumps-to-230m-in-may-bringing-yearly-total-to-over-1b/

Dave Yin June 18, 2025

The 13th Pyongyang Autumn International Trade fair in North Korea | Image: NK News (Oct. 12, 2017)

North Korea’s trade with China jumped 26.8% year-on-year in May to $230 million, new customs data shows, continuing a trend of strong growth in 2025 and holding steady amid speculation surrounding a strained relationship.

The total trade volume last month marked a 3.5% increase from $222.1 million in April but was still shy of the March figure of $238.2 million, according to official data from China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) released Wednesday.

Notably, trade from January to the end of May this year totalled $1.03 billion, a 22.8% increase from the same period last year, which had seen a slight decrease from the same period in 2023.

Trade in May in particular was significantly higher than the same month in 2023 and 2024, which saw $189.6 million and $181.3 million, respectively.

The increase was fueled primarily by DPRK imports from China. North Korea received $193.6 million in goods from China, while it exported only $36.4 million to its largest trading partner. Both figures marked increases from April, though imports saw stronger growth at 3.9%.

Some analysts have suggested that relations between China and North Korea have been strained of late as a result of Pyongyang’s expanding support for Russia’s war in Ukraine — something they say China disapproves of.

On Tuesday, top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu arrived in Pyongyang for the second time this month for talks with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un, announcing that North Korea would deploy 6,000 military construction workers.

The latest deployment comes in addition to the some 12,000 North Korean troops already dispatched to fight in the Kursk region since last October and the DPRK’s shipment of large volumes of weapons to Moscow.

However, other experts say that North Korean-China trade is unaffected, and that any double-digit year-on-year trade growth would be a sign of a strong economic relationship.

Chinese customs authorities are expected to release more detailed line-item data about trade with the DPRK in the coming days, which should offer additional insights into what goods dominated bilateral exchange in May.

Anton Sokolin contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Bryan Betts

11. Lee Jae-myung spotlights North Korean issues in G7 talks with Ishiba, Carney

Glad to see the threat front and center.

Lee Jae-myung spotlights North Korean issues in G7 talks with Ishiba, Carney

South Korean president agrees to strengthen trilateral cooperation with Tokyo in first meeting with Japanese counterpart

https://www.nknews.org/2025/06/lee-jae-myung-spotlights-north-korean-issues-in-g7-talks-with-ishiba-carney/

Jooheon Kim June 18, 2025

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung (right) holds talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Alberta. | Image: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (June 17, 2025)

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung continued to use his visit to Canada for the G7 summit to spotlight security concerns about North Korea on Tuesday, holding talks with leaders from Japan, Canada and other countries.

In his first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the two leaders agreed to strengthen trilateral cooperation with the U.S. to respond to regional geopolitical challenges like the “North Korea issue,” according to Seoul’s presidential office.

The two leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to resuming “shuttle diplomacy,” referring to the practice of regularly visiting each other’s countries, and agreed to advance intergovernmental talks to facilitate this process.

The meeting was noteworthy for demonstrating Lee’s willingness to push forward military cooperation with Japan that began under his conservative predecessor, something that he pledged to do during his recent presidential campaign. This marks a departure from past progressive presidents, who generally shunned such cooperation and emphasized the need to resolve historical disputes with Tokyo.

During the previous Yoon administration, the leaders of the U.S., South Korea and Japan reached a deal at Camp David under which Seoul and Tokyo would share real-time data on North Korean missiles and participate in trilateral military drills. The three countries have since held multiple exercises around the Korean Peninsula featuring U.S. strategic assets like nuclear bombers and aircraft carriers in a bid to deter DPRK aggression.

Also on Tuesday, President Lee met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of the G7 in Alberta, and the two sides agreed to work to “ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and resolve the North Korean nuclear issue,” while sharing views on developments in Ukraine and the Middle East, according to the ROK presidential office,

Lee reportedly expressed his hope to strengthen security and defense ties with Canada, and Carney emphasized the importance of close collaboration on regional and global security.

During Lee’s meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the two leaders agreed to accelerate talks on upgrading the ROK-U.K. Free Trade Agreement (FTA), while agreeing to cooperate on the North Korean nuclear issue, according to Seoul.

The South Korean president also held talks with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where they expressed mutual support for a “free and sovereign Ukraine” and “tough sanctions” against Russia, according to Von der Leyen.

Other leaders whom Lee met with included the presidents of Mexico, Brazil and India. Lee expressed his intention to advance cooperation in the defense industry during the meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but Seoul’s readouts made no mention of North Korea or security-related issues in his meetings with the other two leaders.

But Lee was unable to hold talks with U.S. President Donald Trump after he returned to the U.S. early on Monday, skipping a planned evening session with world leaders.

This was a setback for Lee, who had hoped to discuss urgent trade issues like U.S. tariffs. The two leaders briefly spoke by phone after Lee’s election at the beginning of the month, agreeing to meet soon to strengthen the U.S.-ROK alliance.

Edited by Bryan Betts

12. In a quiet diplomatic move, India appoints ambassador to North Korea after 4 years

I will ask my Indian colleagues about this in Ulaanbaatar this week.

In a quiet diplomatic move, India appoints ambassador to North Korea after 4 years

firstpost.com · June 18, 2025

Aliawati Longkumer has been appointed as India’s next ambassador to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (also known as North Korea).

Longkumer is currently the Charge d’affaires of the Embassy of India in Asuncion, Paraguay. He is expected to take up the assignment as the next Ambassador of India to North Korea shortly.

“Aliawati Longkumer (YOA : 2008), presently Charge d’affaires a.i. Embassy of India, Asuncion, Paraguay, has been appointed as the next Ambassador of India to Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. He is expected to take up the assignment shortly,” the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in a statement on Monday.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD

As per the MEA, relations between India and North Korea have been generally characterised by friendship, cooperation and understanding. The consular relations with North Korea were set up in March 1962.

According to the MEA, the Consulate General of India in North Korea was established in 1968, with the diplomatic relations between the two countries at Embassy level established on 10 December 1973.

As per the MEA, after the 1950-1953 Korean War, the United Nations had formed a nine-member Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission under the Chairmanship of India. The Commission’s role in the exchange of POWs under the Chairmanship of Major General K S Thimayya was highly appreciated. Regular and meaningful exchange of views on bilateral issues of mutual interest and concern are conducted through the mechanism of Foreign Office Consultations (FOC).

MEA in a previous statement had noted that India urged North Korea to restrain from nuclear and ballistic missile tests so as to ease tensions on the Korean peninsula. India supports all efforts to bring about peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy.

Previously, India welcomed the inter-Korean Summit meeting held at Panmunjom on April 27 2018 and in Pyongyang in September 2018.India also welcomed the historic summit held on 12 June 2018 in Singapore and on 27-28 February in Hanoi between US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un, and hoped that such engagement would help in reducing tensions and pave the way for lasting peace and reconciliation in the Korean Peninsula.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD

(This is an agency copy. Except for the headline, the copy has not been edited by Firstpost staff.)