Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"In all history there is no war which was not hatched by the governments, the governments alone, independent of the interests of the people, to whom war is always pernicious even when successful."
- Leo Tolstoy

"No pessimist ever discovered the secrets of the stars, or sailed to an uncharted land, or opened a new heaven to the human spirit." 
- Helen Keller

"By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."
- Confucius

1.​ S. Korea, China hold high-level phone talks on N. Korea, bilateral ties​
2. Canada says Chinese warplanes harassed its patrol aircraft on N.Korea sanctions mission
3. S. Korea to scrutinize N. Korea's message from upcoming party meeting
4. Growing security threat from North Korea: Korea Herald
5. N. Korea's new suspected COVID-19 cases under 100,000 for 3rd day
6. North Korea: The mystery of its Covid outbreak
7. Is this the stupidest thing the UN has ever done?
8. Blinken highlights need to work with China on global issues including N. Korea
9. NATO invites Yoon Suk-yeol as it looks beyond Europe
10. Cybersecurity emerges as top priority
11. North Korea’s virus outbreak ‘getting worse, not better,’ WHO says
12. Warning over NK nuke threat after Kim Jong-un's crypto hackers target US
13. Whither Korea?
14. Ruling party wins resounding victory in local elections
15. Yoon likely to visit Spain for first overseas trip
16. Yoon's agenda gets boost from ruling party's sweeping triumph in local elections






1. S. Korea, China hold high-level phone talks on N. Korea, bilateral ties

Excerpt:

In response, Yang expressed concerns about the growing uncertainties on the Korean Peninsula and affirmed China's role in promoting inter-Korean relations to reach a diplomatic solution to that end, it added.

S. Korea, China hold high-level phone talks on N. Korea, bilateral ties | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · June 2, 2022
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and China held high-level phone talks Thursday, during which the two sides discussed bilateral ties and the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, the presidential office said.
South Korea's National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han and Yang Jiechi, China's top diplomat, exchanged opinions on the bilateral relations under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which took office last month.
They positively reviewed the brisk consultations at the high-level and agreed to expand "substantive cooperation" between the two nations, the presidential office said.
Kim said North Korea's nuclear and missile program poses a risk to regional peace and stability, and called on China to play "an active, constructive role" in persuading Pyongyang to refrain from further provocations and return to dialogue, according to the office.
In response, Yang expressed concerns about the growing uncertainties on the Korean Peninsula and affirmed China's role in promoting inter-Korean relations to reach a diplomatic solution to that end, it added.
The two also agreed to meet in person at a mutually convenient time and place to deepen and widen the bilateral relations.
Their phone talks came amid concerns over North Korea's preparation for its seventh nuclear test and uncertainties over the Seoul-Beijing ties, as the conservative Yoon administration has made clear it will place top diplomatic policy priority on bolstering the alliance with the United States.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · June 2, 2022



2. Canada says Chinese warplanes harassed its patrol aircraft on N.Korea sanctions mission


China is complicit in helping north Korea to evade sanctions. And it is important that we have an allied coalition approach to the sanctions evasion effort. It is not all about the US trying to prevent sanctions evasion.

Canada says Chinese warplanes harassed its patrol aircraft on N.Korea sanctions mission
Reuters · by Josh Smith
SEOUL, June 2 (Reuters) - Canada's military has accused Chinese warplanes of harassing its patrol aircraft as they monitor North Korea sanction evasions, sometimes forcing Canadian planes to divert from their flight paths.
On several occasions from April 26 to May 26, aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) approached a Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CP-140 Aurora long-range patrol aircraft, the Canadian Armed Forces said in a statement on Wednesday.
"In these interactions, PLAAF aircraft did not adhere to international air safety norms," the statement said. "These interactions are unprofessional and/or put the safety of our RCAF personnel at risk."
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In some instances, the Canadian aircrew felt so at risk that they had to quickly change their flight path to avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft, the statement added.
Beijing has yet to comment on the allegations.
Such interactions are of concern and of increasing frequency, the Canadian military said, noting that the missions occur during United Nations-approved operations to implement sanctions on North Korea.
The Canadian aircraft were part of Ottawa's "Operation NEON", which sees military ships, aircraft and personnel deployed to identify suspected sanctions evasions at sea, including ship-to-ship transfers of fuel and other supplies banned by United Nations Security Council resolutions.
China, which says it has enforced the UNSC sanctions, joined Russia in last week in vetoing a U.S.-led proposal for new sanctions on North Korea over its increasing missile tests.
“Under current circumstances, ramping up sanctions won’t help solve the problem,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a briefing on Wednesday.
China and Russia's air forces conducted a joint aerial patrol last week over the Sea of Japan, East China Sea and the Western Pacific, the first such exercise since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
Reuters · by Josh Smith




3. S. Korea to scrutinize N. Korea's message from upcoming party meeting


​Let's compare it to the outcome of the 8th Party Congress in 2021.

My assessment from that meeting:

Political Warfare
Subversion, coercion, extortion
“Blackmail diplomacy” – the use of tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions
Example: Kim Yo-jong threats in June – ROK anti-leaflet law in December
Negotiate to set conditions - not to denuclearize
Set Conditions for unification (domination to complete the revolution)
Split ROK/US alliance
Reduce/weaken defense of the South
Exploit regional powers (e.g, China and Russia)
Economics by Juche ideology – the paradox of “reform”
Illicit activities to generate funds for regime
Deny human rights to ensure regime survival
Continue to exploit COVID threat to suppress dissent and crack down on 400+ markets and foreign currency use
Priority to military and nuclear programs

For deterrence or domination?

S. Korea to scrutinize N. Korea's message from upcoming party meeting | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2022
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will keep close tabs on a key ruling party meeting in North Korea expected to kick off within the coming days for any possible messages directed at Seoul or Washington, a unification ministry official said Thursday.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency has reported that the country plans to convene the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Party Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party in "the first third of June" to make an interim review of state policies for 2022 and to decide on a "series of important issues." The exact date remains unannounced.
"It is likely that North Korea will discuss issues on inter-Korean and external relations as well as the COVID-19 situation," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
He pointed out that the North had organized sectional workshops to discuss relations with the South and the United States at the previous plenary session in December last year.
"We will pay close attention to the results of the midterm review that the North is expected to announce at the plenary session and its direction on domestic and external policies," the official said.
The reclusive Kim Jong-un regime's plan for the session has drawn keen attention from the outside world as it may provide a clue to details of the local virus crisis and foreign policy line amid stalled nuclear talks with the United States.
The central committee serves as the party's highest organ of power between party congresses and usually holds a plenary meeting once a year to discuss party reshuffles and other key issues.
North Korea has held 11 plenary central committee sessions since Kim took power in late 2011.

julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2022




4. Growing security threat from North Korea: Korea Herald

An important critique of the UN Security Council and Chinese and Russian decision.

Excerpt:

It is the first time in 15 years that a UN Security Council member has used a veto to stop the council from fulfilling its responsibility to hold North Korea accountable for its unlawful act. Russia and China hadn't blocked any of the nine previous UN Security Council votes on North Korea sanctions made since 2006 when the North conducted its first atomic bomb test.


Growing security threat from North Korea: Korea Herald
By Hermes Auto The Straits Times3 min

People watch a news broadcast with footage of a North Korean missile test, at a railway station in Seoul on May 25, 2022. PHOTO: AFP
SEOUL (THE KOREA HERALD/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - The United Nations Security Council on Thursday (May 25) took a vote on its resolution to strengthen sanctions on North Korea for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile a day earlier, but the resolution fell through due to opposition from Russia and China.
The 13 other members of the Security Council voted to adopt the resolution, but the two permanent members vetoed it. A resolution needs nine "yes" votes and no vetoes by five permanent members to be adopted by the council.
It is the first time in 15 years that a UN Security Council member has used a veto to stop the council from fulfilling its responsibility to hold North Korea accountable for its unlawful act. Russia and China hadn't blocked any of the nine previous UN Security Council votes on North Korea sanctions made since 2006 when the North conducted its first atomic bomb test.
The latest vetoed resolution was based on the trigger clause of the UN resolution No. 2397. The UN Security Council passed the automatic sanctions clause in December 2017 that if North Korea conducts a further nuclear test or fires an ICBM, the council will take action to further restrict petroleum exports to North Korea. At that time, China and Russia consented, too.
But then, the two countries disregarded the UN Security Council agreement. They did not comply with the clause that they agreed on. China effectively looked on as South Korea was coming under North Korea's growing nuclear threats, and even retaliated the South economically for deploying a self-defensive Terminal High Altitude Area Defence to fend off North Korea's missiles.
Meanwhile, Beijing calls South Korea an inseparable neighbour and a cooperative partner. Its attitude is contradictory. In March, the UN Security Council discussed sanctions against North Korea, but failed to issue even a statement condemning North Korea's ICBM launch due to opposition from China and Russia.
Whenever North Korea faced a crisis, China opened the back door for the North and Russia defended it. The two countries urged restraint and cool-headedness from related countries and blamed the US. A day before North Korea's latest ICBM launch, multiple Russian and Chinese warplanes entered South Korea's air defence identification zone without notice.
North Korea imports important materials of atomic bombs and ballistic missiles mostly from China. It also has many Russian-made weapons. If China and Russia had complied faithfully with UN Security Council resolutions, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il could not have expected a "perfection of his country's nuclear deterrence."
China and Russia use North Korea and its nuclear threat as a card in their confrontation with the United States. Probably Kim knows this well. Their protection emboldens him to flout UN resolutions without reservation. As a consequence, North Korea succeeded in developing intercontinental missiles that can strike the US. Its seventh nuclear test has become a matter of time.
Proper functions of the UN Security Council regarding North Korea are collapsing due to vetoes by China and Russia. If the two countries keep using their status as permanent members of the council to side with the North, it would be virtually impossible to expect the UN to resolve the North's nuclear problem through sanctions.
Internationally, confrontation is tense between authoritarian and democratic camps. The United States is increasing pressure on China and Russia in Europe and Asia. North Korea seeks to make the Korean Peninsula the flash-point of the "new Cold War" under the protection of China and Russia.
North Korea, China and Russia all are countries unreserved in threatening their neighbours by force. In the era of the new Cold War, they share the same interests and will get closer to one another.
South Korea has entered an emergency situation where threat to its security is growing. It must secure deterrence quickly against North Korea's nuclear weapons and strengthen not only the US alliance but also its solidarity with the liberal democratic camp.
  • The Korea Herald is a member of The Straits Times media partner Asia News Network, an alliance of 23 news media organisations.



5. N. Korea's new suspected COVID-19 cases under 100,000 for 3rd day



(LEAD) N. Korea's new suspected COVID-19 cases under 100,000 for 3rd day | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · June 2, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more information from 4th para; ADDS photo, byline)
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korea reported over 96,000 new fever cases Thursday, with the daily tally remaining under 100,000 for the third consecutive day.
More than 96,610 people showed symptoms of fever over a 24-hour period until 6 p.m. the previous day, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, citing data from the state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters. It provided no further information regarding additional deaths.
The total number of fever cases since late April came to over 3.83 million as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, of which more than 3.66 million have recovered and at least 165,390 are being treated, it added.
The country's daily fever tally has been on a downward trend after peaking at over 392,920 on May 15. The daily count has been under 100,000 since Monday, after logging over 100,710 on Sunday.

The North remained vigilant against the spread of the virus, with the KCNA carrying an article that introduced the country's efforts to "intensify" its nationwide antivirus campaign.
"The emergency epidemic prevention sectors in different parts of the country concentrate their efforts on turning their regions into epidemic-safe zones," the KCNA said in an English-language article.
It added the country's northern Ryanggang Province and the western city of Nampho have increased the production of anti-epidemic supplies, while a "blockade" in coastal areas against the spread of the virus is "further intensified."
On May 12, North Korea disclosed its first COVID-19 case after claiming to be coronavirus-free for over two years and announced a shift to the "maximum emergency" virus control system.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · June 2, 2022



6. North Korea: The mystery of its Covid outbreak


It's a mystery. None of us can really know what is going on in Pyongyang and throughout the north. But we can assess things through the lens of our understanding of the nature, objectives,and strategy of the Kim family regime. And of course our access to people inside north Korea can help us understand what is happening. This contact and communication capability should lead us to a conclusion that we can get information into and out of north Korea.

But we should always keep in mind that the Korean people in the north are suffering because of the deliberate policy decisions Kim has made. First is the prioritization of the development of nuclear weapons, missiles, and advanced militaries over the welfare of the Korean people in the north. The second is Kim's exploitation of the COVID paradox. While trying to mitigate the effects of COVID he is using COVID to implement draconian population and resources control measures to further oppress the Korean people and prevent any resistance.

Kim Jong-un is responsible for the suffering.



North Korea: The mystery of its Covid outbreak
BBC · by Menu
By Jean Mackenzie, Hosu Lee & Reality Check team
BBC News
Published
1 hour ago
North Korean poster asks: "Comrade, are you keeping to the emergency virus prevention rules?"
It's been three weeks since North Korea announced its first ever Covid case. The government claims to have the outbreak under control, but the details remain a mystery.
The BBC has pieced together information, through conversations with people who have managed to contact those living in North Korea, and by using publicly available resources.
Voices inside North Korea
Kim Hwang-sun was sitting alone in his kitchen in Seoul when his phone rang. It was a Chinese broker with the news he'd been waiting for. His family could talk.
It has been 10 years since Hwang-sun escaped North Korea alone. His two children, grandchildren and his 85-year-old mother are all still there, and he's given up hope of ever getting them out.
These secret phone calls are the only communication he has with them. He knows not to ask too much in case they're being listened to. He keeps his conversations short, never more than five minutes.
Two days earlier, North Korea had announced its first coronavirus case.
Data released by the government, in an unprecedented move, indicates the virus spread quickly to every province in the country.
"They told me that very many people are sick with a fever," says Hwang-sun. "I got the sense it was really bad. They said everyone is walking around asking anyone they meet for medicine. Everyone is looking for something to reduce their fever, but no-one can find anything."
He didn't dare ask how many people were dying. If they were overheard talking about deaths, it could be seen as criticising the government, and he fears his family might be killed.
So far, about 15% of the population has become ill with a "fever" according to the official data. A lack of testing means this is how cases are described.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has acknowledged the shortage of medicine, ordering the army to distribute their stockpiles.
Image source, KCTV
Image caption,
The army has been mobilised to distribute its stockpile of medicines in pictures shown on North Korean TV
Hospitals and pharmacies in North Korea haven't had any medicine for years, says Hwang-sun. Doctors write a prescription, and it is up to the patient to find what they need and buy it, either from someone selling directly from their house, or from a local market.
"If you need anaesthetic for an operation, you have to go to the market to get it and bring it back to the hospital," he says. "But now even the market-sellers don't have anything".
"The government is telling us to boil pine leaves and drink the mixture instead," his family told him. State news reports have also advised gargling salt water to relieve symptoms.
Image source, KCTV
Image caption,
North Korean state TV has broadcast images of well-stocked pharmacies, but people have spoken of an acute lack of medicine
"This is what happens when they have no medicine. They shift to traditional medicine," says Dr Nagi Shafik, who has worked for Unicef in North Korea's villages since 2001. When he was last there, in 2019, medicine was already short. "There was some, but very, very little," he says.
Almost all medicine is imported from China and the last two years of border closures have choked off this supply.
Sokeel Park, from the organisation Liberty in North Korea, helps escapees from the North settle in the South. Those who have spoken to family back home have told him there has been a run on medicine. "What little was left has been bought up, pushing prices sky-high," he says.
A national lockdown
The government ordered a national lockdown on the day the outbreak was announced. It prompted concern that people, unable to get food, would starve. At least some, however, appear to have been able to leave their homes to work and to farm.
Image source, NK News
Image caption,
Photo taken on 16 May appears to show North Koreans out planting rice in the North Hwanghae Province
Pictures taken across the border in South Korea by the monitoring website NK News show agricultural workers in the fields in the days after the lockdown was imposed.
However, in places with high rates of infection, including the capital Pyongyang, people are reported to have been confined to their homes.
Image source, Reuters
Image caption,
Empty street scene in Pyongyang on 23 May
Lee Sang-yong runs the Daily NK, a Seoul-based website, and has a network of sources inside North Korea. In the town of Hyesan on the Chinese border, he says people were not allowed to leave their homes for 10 days in May. When the lockdown was lifted, according to his source, more than a dozen people were found collapsed in their homes, weakened from a lack of food.

So far, just 70 deaths have been officially reported. This would put North Korea's Covid fatality rate at 0.002% - the lowest in the world.
"For a country with a poor healthcare system, where no-one is vaccinated, these numbers don't make sense," says Martyn Williams, who has been tracking the data for the analysis platform 38 North.
He points out another oddity. Deaths peaked while cases were still rising. "We know with Covid-19 that deaths tend to follow infections by two to three weeks. So, we know these figures are incorrect, but we don't know why."
He explains that as well as misreporting at a national level, local health officials may not want to admit how many people have died, for fear of being punished.
International help
Over the past week, the number of reported new cases has dropped, with an editorial in the country's state newspaper claiming the authorities have "suppressed and controlled the spread of the virus".
Unicef says that their local staff have now returned to their Pyongyang office after being released from lockdown.
In a briefing by the World Health Organization on Wednesday, emergency health official Dr Mike Ryan said he feared the situation was "getting worse, not better". He said North Korea had not given them access to its data, making it "very difficult to provide a proper analysis to the world". He also said they had offered multiple times to send vaccines and assistance.
Instead, North Korea appears to be quietly relying on its neighbour China to pull it through.

Chinese customs data shows that North Korean imports from China doubled from March to April.
Although imports have been steadily increasing this year after a two-year border closure, in the last few months there has been a sudden increase in imported medical supplies.
In April, North Korea imported 1,000 'ventilators' from China - the first batch since the pandemic began, according to Chinese customs data.
The term 'ventilator' in the Chinese data may also refer to other, smaller types of oxygen treatment machines.
From January to April, North Korea also bought more than nine million face masks. None were registered in the Chinese customs data over the previous two years. There's also been an increase in medicines and vaccines imported.

According to a South Korean government official, the North sent three cargo planes to China to pick up aid on 17 May.
Satellite images from 24 May show three Air Koryo (the state-owned national airline of North Korea) cargo planes at Pyongyang airport which match the dimensions of three planes seen at the Shenyang airport in China a few days earlier.

Separately, a source we spoke to said a large shipment of medical supplies had arrived by sea at Nampo port, south of Pyongyang, on 13 May.
We've obtained satellite imagery for 15 May. It reveals the presence of a large number of ships in the port area. Identifying where they came from and what they were carrying has, however, not been possible - as many of them have had their navigation trackers switched off.

Seoul resident Kim Hwang-sun hasn't heard anything from his family in the North since that first phone call.
Since the outbreak, he says it has become much harder to reach them. The phone signals are frequently jammed and when he does occasionally get through, he often gets cut off. His friends are experiencing the same thing.
He's so wracked with worry about what might have happened to his 85-year-old mother in the days since they spoke, that yesterday he climbed to the top of his local mountain and prayed for her. This is all he can do. Like the rest of the world, he is in the dark and unable to help.
Names have been changed to protect sources

Related Topics
BBC · by Menu

7. Is this the stupidest thing the UN has ever done?

Sigh...

Is this the stupidest thing the UN has ever done?
americanmilitarynews.com · by Ryan Morgan · June 1, 2022
Last week, North Korea assumed control as the chair of the United Nations Conference on Disarmament, the U.N. forum for negotiating multilateral disarmament efforts across the globe. It’s the latest in a string of questionable moves the U.N. has taken in putting nation officials in contradictory positions.
North Korea officially took over the U.N. disarmament conference on Monday, according to NK News. The U.N. move quickly drew criticism from nongovernmental organizations that noted North Korea’s major nuclear weapons development efforts in recent months.
In March, North Korea conducted its first full intercontinental ballistic missile test in over four years. North Korea also conducted a ballistic missile test just days before President Joe Biden visited neighboring South Korea.
“North Korea has just taken over as chair of the Conference on Disarmament here at the United Nations in Geneva,” tweeted United Nations Watch executive director Hillel Neuer. “This is not a joke. When they preside at tomorrow’s meeting, our coalition of 40 UN-accredited NGOs is calling on all democracies to walk out.”
Having the North Korean regime of Kim Jong-un preside over global nuclear weapons disarmament will be like putting a serial rapist in charge of a women’s shelter.

Our appeal for countries to walk out, signed by 40 civil society groups worldwide: https://t.co/NQeSiyfcOh /2
— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) May 30, 2022
“Having the North Korean regime of Kim Jong-un preside over global nuclear weapons disarmament will be like putting a serial rapist in charge of a women’s shelter,” Neuer added.
Neuer also circulated an appeal for countries to walk out of the U.N. disarmament conference. “Our appeal for countries to walk out, signed by 40 civil society groups worldwide.”
“This is a country that threatens to attack other UN member states with missiles, and that commits atrocities against its own people,” Neuer added in the statement. “Torture and starvation are routine in North Korean political prison camps where an estimated 100,000 people are held in what is one of the world’s most dire human-rights situations.”
According to U.N. Watch, North Korea will lead the disarmament conference from May 30 until June 24. While North Korea will only control the disarmament forum for about four weeks, it will have presiding authority over multiple arms control discussions, including the discussion topics of “Cessation of the nuclear arms race and nuclear disarmament” and “Prevention of nuclear war, including all related matters.”
The U.N. has faced criticism for other controversial picks to lead major initiatives.
In April 2020, the U.N. appointed Jiang Duan, the minister at the Chinese Mission in Geneva, to represent the Asia-Pacific Group (APG) on the U.N. Human Rights Council’s Consultative Group. Some groups have criticized the U.N. for giving China expanded powers on human rights panels despite carrying out human rights abuses against their minority Uyghur population.
In May 2020, the U.N. also named Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s wife Peng Liyuan as a World Health Organization Goodwill Ambassador. Peng had been photographed in a Chinese military uniform singing for Chinese troops at Tiananmen Square in 1989 after they violently dispersed protestors in an event known as the Tiananmen Square Massacre.
The U.N. also named Chinese television anchor James Chau as a goodwill ambassador. Neuer noted Chau had broadcasted the Chinese government’s forced confession of captured British national, Peter Humphrey, who was made to confess to stealing the data of Chinese citizens.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley has also criticized the U.N. Human Rights Council for including “murderers, dictators and thieves.”

americanmilitarynews.com · by Ryan Morgan · June 1, 2022


8. Blinken highlights need to work with China on global issues including N. Korea

But do Chinese leaders believe they need to work with us?

Sometimes I think we would be better served to just ignore China and if they want to cooperate on north Korea and global issues to allow them to come to us. We should not ever be "courting" China. We need to get on with business and China can either join us and be part of solutions or they can continue to be part of the problem. I think in terms of north Korea they are demonstrating that they are part of the problem (e.g., complicit in sanctions evasion activities, military advances, cyber, and human rights abuses).

Blinken highlights need to work with China on global issues including N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 2, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, June 1 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday urged China to work with the U.S. and the rest of the international community insisting that China can play a major role when it comes to global issues such as climate change and North Korea.
His remarks come less than a week after China and Russia blocked a U.S.-proposed U.N. Security Council resolution seeking to impose fresh U.N. sanctions on North Korea for its recent missile provocations.
"China has a tremendous ability to use its power, its influence to productive events," the top U.S. diplomat said in a virtual event marking the 100th anniversary of the establishment of Foreign Affairs Magazine.
Blinken noted China could be a "major player" in bringing the COVID-19 pandemic to an end by helping build a "more agile global health security system that includes better real time exchange of information."
"And these are some of the other issues. Obviously non-proliferation when it comes to North Korea, when it comes to Iran, China has a major role to play." he added.

Beijing and Moscow vetoed the U.S.-proposed U.N. Security Council resolution on North Korea on Thursday, effectively blocking the resolution supported by all 13 other members of the 15-member council, arguing it would only increase tension in the region and that the U.S. should instead engage with Pyongyang.
North Korea has fired nearly two dozen ballistic missiles in 17 rounds of missile tests this year.
Washington has consistently made it clear to Pyongyang that it remains committed to dialogue without preconditions, but the North remains unresponsive to U.S. overtures.
Blinken said the U.S. will continue to work with its allies to create an environment that encourages China to act.
"We can't decide for China," he said. "We can't compel it to do X, Y,or Z. It's going to make its own decisions."
"What we can do is shape the environment in which it makes those decisions, and that's what the strategy that we put forward is all about, particularly when it comes to aligning with allies and partners," he added.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 2, 2022


9. NATO invites Yoon Suk-yeol as it looks beyond Europe

Another example of President Yoon leading the ROK to "step up" as he said in his Foriegn Affairs article.

Thursday
June 2, 2022

NATO invites Yoon Suk-yeol as it looks beyond Europe

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the State Department in Washington on Wednesday. [AP/YONHAP]
 
President Yoon Suk-yeol is expected to attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Spain from June 29 to 30 as the North American and European-centered military alliance expands its focus by defining China's military rise as a new threat.  
 
The invitation to U.S.-friendly leaders of the Indo-Pacific region, including Yoon, came after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was time for NATO to adopt a new strategic concept at a joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the State Department in Washington on Wednesday.

 
“The alliance will adopt a new strategic concept, the first one since 2010, to make sure that we’re ready to meet the challenges of today and the challenges that we anticipate for tomorrow,” Blinken said, adding that such threats include “the People’s Republic of China’s rapid militarization, its no-limits friendship with Russia and efforts to weaken the rules-based international order that is the foundation for peace and security around the world.”
 
Blinken’s comments were echoed by Stoltenberg, who said NATO must “prepare for an age of increased strategic competition with authoritarian powers like Russia and China,” and that such steps include “working even more closely with our partners in the Asia-Pacific and other like-minded partners around the world.”
 
Under the administration of former President Moon Jae-in, South Korea attempted to maintain a balance in relations with China, its largest trading partner and a country it believes can influence nuclear-armed North Korea, and the United States, the country’s closest diplomatic and security ally.
 
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, however, Seoul has faced pressure from Washington to align more closely with it.
 
In a May 9 call with senior defense officials of its allies, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin Lloyd pressed for more weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
 
A Korean military source who asked not to be named said the administration of former President Moon Jae-in was very negative about the U.S. proposal, but the United States expects "a more forward-looking position" from the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.
 
Seoul has thus far resisted entreaties from the Washington to deliver lethal arms to Kyiv, sending only non-lethal military and humanitarian aid, such as bulletproof helmets, medical supplies and blankets.
 
Seoul could be drawn into deeper security entanglements as relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate.
 
At the Beijing Winter Olympics this year, China declared an “unlimited friendship” with Russia. 
 
At the centennial celebration of the Foreign Affairs magazine on June 1, Blinken expressed doubts that the United States could influence China to change the trajectory of its foreign policy.
 
“We can’t rely on Beijing to change its own trajectory,” Blinken said, saying Washington “is focused on three things: invest, align, compete” — referring to the need for the United States to invest in its own economy, cooperate closely with allies and compete with China.
 
Particularly relevant for Korea is Blinken’s emphasis of aligning “with our allies and partners,” whose collective weight the U.S. state secretary described as having “a much greater impact than any of our countries acting alone.
 
“It’s one thing when the United States takes it on alone, as 20, 25 percent of world GDP,” Blinken said of the country’s share of global economic output. “It’s another when we’re aligned with partners and allies, and maybe it’s 50 or 60 of world GDP.”
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]



10. Cybersecurity emerges as top priority

A global threat but also one from north Korea and the regional revisionist powers.

Excerpts:

North Korea, in particular, is pressing ahead with a state-led cyberpower offensive. By connecting with Russia, China and Iran, the country has developed cyber strength that could threaten the entire world. In 2016, for instance, the North Korean General Bureau of Reconnaissance hacked the South Korean military intranet for the first time. After finding the connection point between the South Korean military intranet and the internet, North Korea created a sophisticated malware to infect 3,200 computers at once. As the attack was not detected by our military control system, a large amount of military secrets were stolen.

We must not overlook the fact that even today, North Korea is waiting for a decisive moment after establishing a covert access route by finding vulnerable points in our core infrastructure. In peacetime, North Korea makes a few jabs to test South Korea’s response readiness by hacking major defense agencies. But in wartime, it may destroy South Korea’s core infrastructure, including electricity infrastructure, with a powerful straight punch.

North Korea and China would have watched Russia’s cyber warfare closely and reassessed the value. Israel has recognized the importance of cybersecurity early on and reflected cyber warfare in the 5-year Gideon plan, investing three-years of budget at once. The United States constantly invests on the “modernization of core military capabilities,” which includes cyber warfare, out of the judgement that conventional weapons cannot win future wars.

Thursday
June 2, 2022

Cybersecurity emerges as top priority

Song Jong-seok

The author is a professor of cyber security at Yeungnam University College.


June 3 is the 100th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war has resulted in nearly 10,000 casualties and has left the country in devastation. Here, the invisible power of cyber warfare is noteworthy.

Following the invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, Russia launched cyber attacks. Even before the Russian army invaded Ukrainian territory, major government ministries of Ukraine, including the foreign and defense ministries, and large state-run banks suffered DDoS and malware attacks multiple times. It is estimated that the Russian forces could advance to the vicinity of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv only in 30 hours after the start of the war with the help of its cyber warfare early on.

In the wake of the Russian attack, the Ukrainian government system was attacked followed by the leaks overnight of personal information of Ukrainian citizens, such as passport information. Russia has since initiated meticulous cyberattacks to disable Ukraine’s satellite and broadband networks.

Russia’s attack on the electricity and nuclear energy system helped disturb Ukraine’s military operation command and control. As a result, President Volodymyr Zelensky and the people had a tough time getting ready to fight back in the initial stages of the war.

Why do countries around the world invest in the cyber arms race today? That’s because cyberattacks can hit the virtual environment connected to real world and maximize the social disruption and psychological shock that can be achieved through physical warfare.
 

 
North Korea, in particular, is pressing ahead with a state-led cyberpower offensive. By connecting with Russia, China and Iran, the country has developed cyber strength that could threaten the entire world. In 2016, for instance, the North Korean General Bureau of Reconnaissance hacked the South Korean military intranet for the first time. After finding the connection point between the South Korean military intranet and the internet, North Korea created a sophisticated malware to infect 3,200 computers at once. As the attack was not detected by our military control system, a large amount of military secrets were stolen.

We must not overlook the fact that even today, North Korea is waiting for a decisive moment after establishing a covert access route by finding vulnerable points in our core infrastructure. In peacetime, North Korea makes a few jabs to test South Korea’s response readiness by hacking major defense agencies. But in wartime, it may destroy South Korea’s core infrastructure, including electricity infrastructure, with a powerful straight punch.

North Korea and China would have watched Russia’s cyber warfare closely and reassessed the value. Israel has recognized the importance of cybersecurity early on and reflected cyber warfare in the 5-year Gideon plan, investing three-years of budget at once. The United States constantly invests on the “modernization of core military capabilities,” which includes cyber warfare, out of the judgement that conventional weapons cannot win future wars.

Since cyberspace became a new battlefield for digital hegemony, cyber strength has become a key weapon for countries. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration must recognize cyber warfare as a core part of the country’s military strength in future wars.

If a nuclear war has been the biggest concern so far, we must pay attention to cyber warfare that can be implemented immediately in wartime or peacetime, as it has the destructive power comparable to natural disasters.

Through state-led innovative efforts, South Korea must convert cyber warfare skills into military capabilities before the enemy does so. Regional cyber training centers should be built to train cyber manpower who can work in the field, not to mention the construction of a national cyber defense framework like “cyberdome.”

Furthermore, AI cyber weapons that can automatically identify vulnerabilities in cybersecurity should be developed.

Since North Korea uses civilian computers and IoT devices as botnets to attack, measures to augment cyber defense in our civilian sector should be taken. The new government also must conduct a combined drill among the civilian, government and military sectors at the national level. Victory in war is not guaranteed.

We must be thoroughly prepared to win.
Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.

11. North Korea’s virus outbreak ‘getting worse, not better,’ WHO says

Kim is exploiting his announcement of the COVID outbreak for two reasons. - to pressure us for sanctions relief - we will not accept aid unless you lift sanctions (seems crazy to us but he may be using the suffering of the Korean people in the north to support his blackmail diplomacy. He is not directly demanding sanctions relief but he is likely trying to influence those voices in the international community who blame the US and are voicing their support for sanctions relief as a humanitarian measure. The second purpose for the announcements of the outbreak to paint a false and propaganda picture of regime competence - low death rates and rapid recovery - to enhance the legitimacy of the regime but showing its supposed competence.

North Korea’s virus outbreak ‘getting worse, not better,’ WHO says
A top official appealed to North Korean authorities for more information about the outbreak, saying, “We have real issues in getting access to the raw data.”
NBC News · by The Associated Press · June 2, 2022
LONDON — A top official at the World Health Organization said the U.N. health agency assumes the coronavirus outbreak in North Korea is “getting worse, not better,” despite the secretive country’s recent claims that it is slowing down.
At a news briefing on Wednesday, WHO’s emergencies chief Dr. Mike Ryan appealed to North Korean authorities for more information about the virus outbreak there, saying, “We have real issues in getting access to the raw data and to the actual situation on the ground.”
Download the NBC News app for breaking news and politics
He said WHO has not received any privileged information about the epidemic — unlike in typical outbreaks when countries may share more sensitive data with the organization so it can evaluate the public health risks for the global community.
“It is very, very difficult to provide a proper analysis to the world when we don’t have access to the necessary data,” he said.
WHO has previously voiced concerns about the impact of the virus in North Korea’s population, which is believed to be largely unvaccinated and whose fragile health systems could struggle to deal with a surge in cases prompted by the highly infectious omicron and its subvariants.
Ryan said WHO had offered technical assistance and supplies to North Korean officials multiple times, including offering Covid-19 vaccines on at least three separate occasions.
Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and other top officials discussed revising stringent anti-epidemic restrictions, state media reported, as they maintained a widely disputed claim that the country’s first virus outbreak is slowing.
The discussion at the North’s Politburo meeting on Sunday suggested it would soon relax a set of draconian curbs imposed after its admission of the omicron outbreak last month out of concern about its food and economic situations.
North Korea’s claims to have controlled the outbreak without widespread vaccination, lockdowns or drugs have been met with widespread disbelief, particularly its insistence that only dozens have died among many millions infected — a far lower death rate than seen anywhere else in the world.
The North Korean government has said there are about 3.7 million people with fever or suspected Covid-19. But it disclosed few details about the severity of illness or how many people have recovered, frustrating public health experts’ attempt to understand the extent of the outbreak.
“We really would appeal for a more open approach so we can come to the assistance of the people of (North Korea), because right now we are not in a position to make an adequate risk assessment of the situation on the ground,” Ryan said.
He said WHO was working with neighboring countries like China and South Korea to ascertain more about what might be happening in North Korea, saying that the epidemic there could potentially have global implications.
WHO’s criticism of North Korea’s failure to provide more information about its virus outbreak stands in contrast to the U.N. health agency’s failure to publicly fault China in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.
In early 2020, WHO’s chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus repeatedly praised China publicly for its speedy response to the emergence of the coronavirus, even as WHO scientists privately grumbled about China’s delayed information-sharing and stalled sharing of the genetic sequence for Covid-19.
NBC News · by The Associated Press · June 2, 2022

12.  Warning over NK nuke threat after Kim Jong-un's crypto hackers target US





Warning over NK nuke threat after Kim Jong-un's crypto hackers target US

KIM'S GOING BALLISTIC Warning over escalating North Korea nuke & chemical weapons threat after Kim Jong-un’s army of crypto hackers target US
The Sun · by Chris Bradford · June 1, 2022
NORTH Korea will continue expanding its nuclear weapons program as state-sponsored cryptocurrency hackers ramp up their activities against the US, an expert warns.
Geopolitical expert Brandon J Weichert told The Sun that Pyongyang represents a perennial threat to world stability.
Kim Jong-un's army of elite hackers stole around $400million in digital assets last year, security experts claimCredit: AFP
North Korea targets cryptocurrency platforms in a bid to evade UN sanctions so it can continue funding its nuclear weapons program (picture of the Hwasong Pho-17 missile)Credit: AFP
It is widely reported that North Korean cybercriminals target cryptocurrency platforms in a bid to evade UN sanctions so it can fund its ambitious nuclear weapons program.
Experts at the Arms Control Association believe Pyongyang has up to 50 nukes, 250-500kg of highly enriched uranium, and between 20 and 40kg of plutonium.
In 2021, Kim Jong-un's elite army of 7,000 hackers stole around $400million in digital assets and blockchain experts at Chainalysis said the regime launched at least seven attacks on crypto platforms.
The dictator's cyber soldiers rival the CIA in their expertise and wreak chaos as "the world's biggest bank robbers", experts say.
The regime's tech wizards are trained to steal billions around the globe — which the tyrant uses to spend on weapons.
Weichert believes hackers will ramp up their criminal activities particularly if tensions between the West and North Korea intensify, and politicians refuse to engage with Kim.
During his tour of Asia, Joe Biden was asked if he had a message for the dictator. The commander-in-chief replied, "Hello. Period".
He said: “The more North Korea believes the US will not deal with Pyongyang outside of making threats, the more likely Pyongyang is to engage in revanchist and aggressive behavior."
He branded Pyongyang a “significant destabilizer” to the regional order and a threat to the world.
A UN report from February, which was obtained by Reuters, revealed that cyberattacks on cryptocurrency assets are an “important revenue source” for the Asian nation.
State-sponsored hackers were behind a $620million heist that targeted the Axie Infinity game.
Players can earn cryptocurrency via gameplay or trading their avatars.
FBI investigators alleged state-sponsored hackers the Lazarus Group and APT-38 were behind the attack.
The Lazarus Group was accused of being linked to the attack on Sony Pictures in 2014.
North Korea has vehemently denied allegations that they were behind such attacks.
But, John Bambenek, a principal threat hunter at the security firm Netenrich, said thefts are a “national security” interest for Pyongyang.
'GRAVE THREAT'
In 2019, UN officials claimed that Pyongyang had generated at least $2billion for its weapons of mass destruction program.
Officials in Washington have warned that it will try to intensify sanctions against North Korea if a nuclear weapon is tested.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: “First of all we need to enforce the sanctions that we have already (the) authority to enforce.
“And we certainly, as we attempted in the last resolution, will push for additional sanctions.”
Washington forced a UN Security Council vote on May 26 after US and South Korean officials said Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The rogue state fired two missiles into the sea just last week.
It came just days after South Korea and US leaders agreed to scale-up joint military drills and deployment of American weapons.
Biden vowed to use the “full range of US defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities” as he tried to deter Pyongyang.
Biden and Yoon Seok-youl branded North Korea’s nuclear initiative a “grave threat” to stability on the Korean peninsula, Asia, and the world.
North Korea resumed testing intercontinental ballistic missiles earlier this year, but has not tested a nuclear bomb since 2017.
Earlier in May, three ballistic missiles were fired by North Korea off its east coast into the sea.
The country is currently battling a Covid outbreak after fever infections exploded.
More than 3.7million people have shown fever symptoms in total.
But, security experts fear Kim's inner circle could ramp up their weapons tests in a bid to divert attention away from the health crisis.
Cyber thefts are a 'national security interest' for Pyongyang, experts say (stock image of hacker)Credit: Getty

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The Sun · by Chris Bradford · June 1, 2022


13. Whither Korea?

Deterrence is in the eye of the beholder. South Korea's military is sufficient for deterrence from our perspective. But is Kim Jong-un deterred? Even if the ROK developed its own nuclear weapons, would that deter Kim Jong-un? I doubt it.

Doug Bandow's proposals are a pathway to conflict.

​Conclusion:

Northeast Asia appears to have entered a new world. The North is using missile tests not so much to prod America as to negotiate, to create a deadly deterrent targeting America. Complaining about Pyongyang’s behavior is no solution. Washington needs to change its approach to both North and South Korea to emphasize the interests of the American people.


,
Whither Korea?
While North Korea tests, China and Russia provide cover. How should the United States respond?
​J​UNE 2, 2022​ ​
12:01 AM
The American Conservative · by Doug Bandow
Last week, North Korea launched three ballistic missiles. One followed an unusual trajectory that administration officials believe may have included a re-entry vehicle. Another was an ICBM, North Korea’s sixth such shot this year. In all, the North has conducted 16 tests of 23 ballistic missiles of various ranges in 2022.
A joint statement issued Friday noted that the United States, Republic of Korea, and Japan were deeply concerned “about the May 25 DPRK launches of an intercontinental ballistic missile and shorter-range ballistic missiles.” Alas, the allies’ disapproval is unlikely to bother North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un.
The allies pointed out that “Each of these launches violated multiple UNSC resolutions and posed a grave threat to the region and the international community.” These sentiments are similarly unlikely to impact Pyongyang’s decision-making. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea might note that the five permanent members of the Security Council pay little attention to United Nations dictates because they are able to veto resolutions they don’t like. As for threatening other nations, that’s why the North is building missiles.
The U.S. proposed imposing new U.N. sanctions on the North, barring oil and tobacco exports to the DPRK. The former was to cripple the North Korean economy, while the latter presumably was intended to inconvenience Kim, a heavy smoker. However, both China and Russia vetoed the proposal, the first time since 2006 they blocked a new sanctions measure. The Chinese U.N. ambassador complained about the “negative effects and escalation of confrontation.” Russia’s U.N. ambassador “stressed the ineffectiveness and the inhumanity of further strengthening the sanctions pressure on Pyongyang.” Unstated but more important than the statements were the governments’ estrangement from Washington.
America’s U.N. ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield complained that the Security Council’s “restraint and silence has not eliminated or even reduced the threat. If anything, DPRK has been emboldened.” But the same could be said about imposing sanctions. Kim accelerated missile and nuclear developments in the 2010s even as sanctions were added and generally enforced by the People’s Republic of China. Moreover, the North Korean regime has survived more than two years of what amounted to self-sanctions, with the border sealed and enforced by guards with shoot-to-kill orders.
In any case, with China and Russia, which both backed a series of increasingly tough U.N. sanctions against the DPRK leading up to 2017, now sharply at odds with Washington, the sanctions policy is a dead end. Beijing has always been inclined to value stability over denuclearization, lest the North implode and potentially trigger massive waves of refugees, regime collapse, violent conflict, loose nuclear weapons, and regional instability. (Imagine how U.S. officials would respond to a similar situation in Mexico.) Today, China and Russia may view the North’s increasing armament as a potential geopolitical weapon against America. Neither country has complained about Pyongyang’s resumption of ICBM tests. The bet is that North Korea’s two big neighbors also would overlook a nuclear test.
Sanctions advocates usually respond to failure by asserting that the penalties were just not tough enough. Ratchet up pressure another notch and the target is sure to break! Then the lion will lie down with the lamb, a rousing round of Kumbaya will fill the air, and, in the case of North Korea, Kim will abandon his nukes.
Unfortunately, economic penalties have become Washington’s go-to policy not because they work, but because policymakers have no better idea for dealing with intractable problems. For instance, the U.S. government has punished the Cuban people for more than six decades and responded to successive failures—Fidel Castro’s remaining in power and becoming a global symbol of resistance to American imperialism—by imposing new sanctions. After he died, his brother Raúl took over and remains influential despite formally retiring. And the embargo continues.
In both Venezuela and Syria, the Trump administration decided to starve already-starving people to promote regime change, apparently operating under the assumption that both Nicolas Maduro and Bashar al-Assad would be moved by the plight of their people and quit. U.S. Ambassador Jim Jeffrey was cruel but honest when he admitted his objective was to turn Syria, which had been ravaged by years of civil war, into a “quagmire” for Russia by preventing desperate Syrians from rebuilding. Unfortunately, neither Maduro nor Assad have headed for the exits. The Communist Party still runs Cuba and has intensified its repression of the Cuban people. The living standard of Syrians, not Assad, have plummeted.
Similar results emerged from the more limited penalties imposed on Russia after its 2014 seizure of Crimea, and those on China for its behavior in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Moreover, recall the effects of sanctions on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which then-U.N. Ambassador Madeleine Albright coldly justified as being “worth it” despite causing mass death while failing to force political change. In each of these cases, sanctions worked only in the sense of hurting the helpless. They were a complete failure in achieving their professed political ends. Governments rarely sacrifice political interests viewed as essential in response to foreign economic pressure.
The Biden administration needs to rethink its approach to the North. Increasing sanctions won’t bring Pyongyang to heel. China and Russia are more likely to obstruct than aid Washington against the North. The Biden administration has spent more than a year politely inviting Kim to talk without result. After the failure of the Hanoi summit, the DPRK contemptuously rejected Seoul’s diplomatic overtures. That policy is likely to continue, as newly inaugurated South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has insisted that it is up to North Korea whether the two countries resume bilateral talks.
Finally, the North’s abundant missile and nuclear arsenal—the DPRK is thought to possess enough nuclear material to produce perhaps two or three score bombs—makes, or should make, proposals for preventive war unthinkable. Even a half-dozen retaliatory strikes on, say, Seoul, Busan, Incheon, Daegu in the Republic of Korea, Guam, and Tokyo, would be devastating.
The U.S. and ROK appear to have settled on the alternative of taking “new and additional steps” to reinforce deterrence, whatever those steps might be. Yoon explained, “Every day we are seeing North Korea advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and President Biden and I share grave concerns—it is something that merits our utmost attention.”
No doubt, if the DPRK continues its present course, enhancing deterrence makes sense. However, the vital question is: Who should do the enhancing?
The elephant in the room is that the North threatens America only because America is threatening the North. Kim does not waste his time fulminating against Europe, or India, or Australia, or Latin America, or Africa. The North Korean regime has never indicated any interest in turning their cities into lakes of fire. These lands are of no interest to the DPRK, at least in terms of security.
Pyongyang threatens the U.S. because the former is afraid that Washington might intervene, whether preemptively or defensively alongside the South, a la 1950. Kim’s objective is to keep America out. And he is close to achieving this objective, since the U.S. has no answer to his build-up of nuclear weapons and missiles.
America’s vast military edge already deters the North from aggression against the U.S. Since Kim has no interest in leaving this world atop a radioactive funeral pyre, he won’t launch a first strike. However, if he attains a credible ability to hit the U.S. mainland—the evident objective of developing ballistic missiles—he will have established a significant deterrent against American intervention. U.S. officials may blather on about the inviolability of the alliance, but what president would risk the loss of American cities to defend the ROK?
Imagine the outbreak of conventional conflict on the peninsula (the specific circumstances wouldn’t much matter) with allied forces advancing on Pyongyang. Then, imagine that the Kim government warned the U.S. that unless it withdrew south of the DMZ, it would send nukes. That would mean the end of North Korea, but if Washington was bent on regime change anyway, why shouldn’t the North threaten to play the nuclear card? Would the president order a continued advance, betting that the DPRK was bluffing? Would he or she play geopolitical chicken with potentially millions of American lives at stake?
No president should be forced into such a position. Ensuring that never happens requires the U.S. to change its policy. First, Washington needs to tell Kim that it is willing to shift to arms control, that is, offering sanctions relief for verifiable limitations on the North’s nuclear development. Achieving agreement won’t be easy, but virtually no one in Washington believes that the DPRK’s leader is going to give up his nuclear arsenal. Seeking the impossible risks losing the feasible.
Second, the Biden administration needs to begin shifting responsibility for deterring the North to the ROK. South Korea’s economy is 50 or so times larger than North Korea’s. The South’s population is twice as large. Seoul possesses a vast technological edge, as well as an impressive international network of allies, friends, and partners. The ROK should do whatever is necessary to defend itself, which could include building nuclear weapons.
Indeed, the latter possibility could offer powerful negotiating leverage—not only with Pyongyang, but also Beijing and Moscow. China and Russia undoubtedly believe they benefit from the North’s ability to threaten the South and discomfit the U.S. However, the possibility of the DPRK provoking Seoul to become an independent nuclear power with Japan possibly to follow, would offer both China and Russia reason to try to reign in the North’s ambitions.
The outcome of such an approach would be unpredictable, and could be messy. However, it would allow Washington to back away, eliminating the greatest risk of a North Korean nuclear attack on America. And protecting the U.S., its people, territory, liberties, and prosperity, should be the priority of policymakers. With the status quo growing ever more dangerous, a change in policy is essential.
Northeast Asia appears to have entered a new world. The North is using missile tests not so much to prod America as to negotiate, to create a deadly deterrent targeting America. Complaining about Pyongyang’s behavior is no solution. Washington needs to change its approach to both North and South Korea to emphasize the interests of the American people.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.
The American Conservative · by Doug Bandow

14.  Ruling party wins resounding victory in local elections

Is this a mandate for President Yoon?

Ruling party wins resounding victory in local elections | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · June 2, 2022
(ATTN: RECAPS previous story; UPDATES with DP winning Gyeonggi governorship)
By Joo Kyung-don and Kim Na-young
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- The ruling People Power Party (PPP) clinched a resounding victory in Wednesday's local elections, giving the newly inaugurated government of President Yoon Suk-yeol an added mandate to push forward with its agenda.
The PPP won 12 out of 17 key races for big city mayors and provincial governors, including Seoul, while the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) won only five key races, including three in its stronghold of the Jeolla provinces.
The biggest battleground was Gyeonggi Province where the DP candidate, Kim Dong-yeon, came from behind to beat his PPP rival, Kim Eun-hye, by 0.14 percentage point, with 99.67 percent of the vote counted as of 7:20 a.m.
In Seoul, current Mayor Oh Se-hoon was reelected, while PPP's Yoo Jeong-bok won the race for Incheon mayor.
The PPP also took the governorships of both Chungcheong provinces, both Gyeongsang provinces, Gangwon Province, and the mayorships of the central cities of Sejong and Daejeon, as well as the southeastern cities of Daegu, Ulsan and Busan.
"I think that we have completed the real change of the government by winning the local elections after the presidential election victory," PPP floor leader Kweon Seong-dong said. "We will work harder to realize the will of the people with a humble attitude."
PPP Chairman Lee Jun-seok also expressed thanks to the people.
"We are deeply grateful for all the support the people have given us," Lee said. "More than anything else, we are grateful that we were given a chance to take over a considerable part of regional administration following the presidential election victory."
The DP won only five races -- the mayorship of Gwangju and the governorships of Gyeonggi, both Jeolla provinces and Jeju.
"I think we received our second punishment after the presidential election," said DP interim chief Park Ji-hyun. "The results were worse than we thought."
The elections took place less than a month after President Yoon Suk-yeol took office. The results, when finalized, are expected to significantly strengthen the mandate of the new government as it pushes its agenda in its first year.

Up for grabs in this year's local elections were positions for 17 metropolitan mayors and provincial governorships, 226 lower-level administrative leadership positions, as well as 872 seats in provincial and metropolitan councils, with 2,988 being in lower-level local councils.
Also at stake were seven National Assembly seats in parliamentary by-elections.
The DP's former presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung was elected to the National Assembly representing Incheon's Gyeyang-B district. Lee was also the chief of the DP's campaign for local elections.
Despite his own victory, Lee was far from celebratory.
"I will humbly accept the stern rebuke the people have given us," Lee said of the party's defeat during a TV interview at his election office. "I will do my best to regain people's confidence and receive love from people again."
In another by-election, Ahn Cheol-soo of the PPP, who withdrew from the presidential race to endorse Yoon, secured the seat representing the Bundang-A district of Seongnam, just south of Seoul, after beating Kim Byoung-gwan of the DP.

The results show that the PPP succeeded in riding the momentum from March's presidential election victory.
Yoon's successful summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and firm response to recent North Korean provocations are believed to have helped the PPP make its case with voters, especially those seeking the more stabilized operations of the Yoon administration.
The PPP's victory will also help the Yoon administration's agenda, though the DP still holds a majority in the National Assembly.
For the DP, the results dealt a big blow to recover from their presidential election defeat and expand its power across the nation to keep the Yoon government in check.
The defeat comes after the DP reeled from a recent internal feud, which was sparked by the DP co-interim chief Park Ji-hyun's call for a sweeping reform of the party, and a sexual misconduct case involving one of its lawmakers.

In the runup to Wednesday's elections, the PPP and the DP have been wrangling over various issues, from an extra budget bill to support pandemic-hit small merchants to a proposal for merging Seoul's Gimpo International Airport with Incheon International Airport.
Tentative turnout for this year's local elections was tallied at 50.9 percent, the second-lowest ever for local elections, as 22.5 million of 44.3 million eligible voters cast ballots, according to the National Election Commission (NEC).
Despite registering a record early voting turnout of 20.62 percent, the final turnout came in far lower than the 60.2 percent logged in the 2018 local elections.

kdon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · June 2, 2022

​15. Yoon likely to visit Spain for first overseas trip


​For a NATO summit.

Yoon likely to visit Spain for first overseas trip | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 2, 2022
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol is likely to visit Spain later this month to attend a NATO summit in what would be his first overseas trip as president, officials said Thursday.
Yoon is considering attending the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Madrid on June 29 and 30.
"An advance team consisting of protocol and security service officials is currently on location where the NATO summit will be held," an official at the presidential office told Yonhap News Agency.
If Yoon travels to Spain, it would be his first overseas trip since taking office on May 10.

Though South Korea is not a NATO member, Yoon could use his participation in the summit to demonstrate solidarity with the United States and European nations in their opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Yoon's attendance will also likely underscore his administration's commitment to strengthening ties with Washington in the wake of his summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Seoul on May 21.
An official at the presidential National Security Office said Yoon's attendance has not been finalized, as there are several factors that need to be considered, such as which other countries are participating.
No other countries are currently under consideration as part of Yoon's first trip overseas, the official added.
The NATO summit could set the stage for a series of bilateral and multilateral meetings for Yoon, including a possible summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and a trilateral summit with Kishida and Biden.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 2, 2022


​16. Yoon's agenda gets boost from ruling party's sweeping triumph in local elections




Boost or mandate?

(News Focus) Yoon's agenda gets boost from ruling party's sweeping triumph in local elections | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · June 2, 2022
By Kim Deok-hyun
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- The ruling People Power Party's landslide victory in local elections is expected to give significant momentum to President Yoon Suk-yeol's policy drive in his first year, while pushing the political center of gravity in local governments to the conservatives.
Yoon's PPP swept up at least 12 out of 17 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial posts contested, while the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) won only four key races, three of which were in stronghold Jeolla provinces, with about 77 percent of the vote counted.
The PPP was also leading, albeit by a razor-thin margin, in the biggest battleground province of Gyeonggi. Should the PPP candidate, Kim Eun-hye, beat her DP rival, Kim Dong-yeon, she will be the first female provincial governor in South Korean history.
In Seoul, current Mayor Oh Se-hoon was reelected, while PPP's Yoo Jeong-bok won the race for Incheon mayorship. Should the PPP takes the Gyeonggi governorship, it would be the first time in 16 years for the conservative party to win all three key races in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon.
"We are deeply grateful for all the support the people have given us," PPP Chairman Lee Jun-seok said. "More than anything else, we are grateful that we were given a chance to take over a considerable part of regional administration following the presidential election victory."

The conservative PPP's sweeping triumph also marked a dramatic shift of power in local municipalities. In the 2018 local elections. the liberal DP swept 14 out of 17 posts.
Also at stake in Wednesday's elections were seven National Assembly seats in by-elections.
The DP's former presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung was elected to the National Assembly representing Incheon's Gyeyang-B district. Lee was also the chief of the DP's campaign for local elections.
Despite his own victory, Lee was far from celebratory.
"I will humbly accept the stern rebuke the people have given us," Lee said of the party's defeat during a TV interview at his election office. "I will do my best to regain people's confidence and receive love from people again."
Voter turnout was tentatively tallied at 50.9 percent, the second-lowest ever for local elections, according to the National Election Commission.
The elections are widely seen as an extended contest between the two main parties as they were held just 22 days after the Yoon government was inaugurated and less than three months after the presidential election in March, when the DP defeated by a razor-thin margin.
With the PPP winning the local elections, it is expected to speed up policies of the Yoon government, including housing supply issues, corporate deregulations and a tougher stance on North Korea.
"In the nationwide elections, public sentiment has again given a great boost," said an official at Yoon's office, calling the victory a "clear opportunity to gain momentum in state affairs."
The PPP had been expected to win the elections because they were held after Yoon made some diplomatic and economic achievements.
Yoon, who has vowed to strengthen alliance with the United States, held summit talks with visiting U.S. President Joe Biden on May 21, marking the earliest-ever South Korea-U.S. summit following a South Korean president's inauguration. Yoon also vowed to have a firmer and stronger response to any North Korean provocations.
On the economic front, just three days before the elections, the National Assembly approved the largest-ever extra budget to help small merchants hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Polls have shown Yoon's popularity had been on the rise.
In a Realmeter nationwide poll of 2,516 people aged 18 or older, conducted on May 23-27, 54.1 percent said Yoon did a good job, up 2 percentage points from a week earlier. In contrast, 37.7 percent said Yoon did not do a good job, down 2.9 percentage points from a week earlier.

Unlike the PPP, the DP's leadership has been in disarray since the presidential election defeat and has garnered criticisms for railroading a controversial bill that will reduce and ultimately abolish the prosecution's investigative powers.
The DP was also mired with internal feud, which was sparked by DP co-interim chief Park Ji-hyun's call for sweeping party reforms.
"Instead of showing a humble attitude after losing the presidential election, the DP has shown an attitude of enlightening people. This increased unfavorable view towards the DP," Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University in Seoul, said.
The election results showed that voters opted for the stabilized operations of the Yoon administration, while calling for change in the DP, which holds a majority in the National Assembly, political observers said.
In parliamentary by-elections held simultaneously, former presidential candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Lee of the DP grabbed National Assembly seats.
Ahn of the PPP, who withdrew from the presidential race to endorse Yoon, is likely to declare his bid for the party's leadership, while Lee is expected to face resistance from the party as the DP suffered crushing defeat in local elections.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · June 2, 2022




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