Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:


"Not even a mighty warrior can break a frail arrow when it is multiplied and supported by its fellows. As long as you brothers support one another and render assistance to one another, your enemies can never gain the victory over you. But if you fall away from each other your enemy can break you like frail arrows, one at a time."
- Genghis Khan

"People are like dirt. They can either nourish you and help you grow as a person or they can stunt your growth and make you wilt and die." 
- Plato

"What we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." 
- Werner Heisenberg



1. Blinken says he urged China to encourage N. Korea to act responsibly

2. Starvation turned young North Koreans into the 'Jangmadang Generation'. Outside Kim Jong Un's brutal reign, they're thriving    

3. Cabinet approves establishment of new drone command

4. A tripartite summit must be held shortly

5. Korea-US alliance serves as 'compass for freedom'

6. S. Korea should start mending China ties soon: experts

7.  S. Korea-US alliance should open new chapter for next 70 years, experts say

8. SOCKOR Change of Command June 2023 | SOF News

9. Korea, US urged to expand space cooperation into commercial sector

10. Mounting national debt erodes S. Korea's competitiveness: report

11. S. Korea crafts aggressive posture against potential NK drone infiltrations: source




1. Blinken says he urged China to encourage N. Korea to act responsibly


​I wonder if Xi's response was, we will be happy to do that when you end your hostile policy toward the north and lift sanctions, end extended deterrence and withdraw US troops.​ He probably stopped at hostile policy and did not enumerate the rest.


(LEAD) Blinken says he urged China to encourage N. Korea to act responsibly | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 19, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with reports of press release from state department in last 3 paras)

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, June 19 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called on China to use its influence on Pyongyang to stop the reclusive country from making further provocations, he said Monday, amid anticipation that North Korea may soon launch a space rocket in violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.

Blinken insisted China is in a "unique" position to encourage North Korea to act responsibly.


U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is seen speaking during a press conference after his meetings with his Chinese counterparts in Beijing on June 19, 2023, in this captured image. (Yonhap)

"We also spoke about North Korea's increasingly reckless actions and rhetoric," Blinken said of his ongoing visit to Beijing.

"All members of the international community have an interest in encouraging the DPRK to act responsibly, to stop launching missiles, to start engaging on its nuclear program," the top U.S. diplomat told a press conference, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

His remarks follow a failed attempt by North Korea late last month to launch a space launch vehicle carrying what it claimed to be a military reconnaissance satellite.

The U.S. has declared the attempted launch a violation of multiple UNSC resolutions that prohibit North Korea from acquiring or using any ballistic missile technology.

Pyongyang, however, said it will continue to launch space launch vehicles until it succeeds, indicating a potential second launch in the near future.

Blinken highlighted China's influence over Pyongyang.

"China is in a unique position to press Pyongyang to engage in dialogue and to end its dangerous behavior," he told the press conference.

Later, the state department reiterated that the secretary expressed concerns over a range of global issues, including the threat posed by North Korea.

"The two sides discussed a range of global and regional security issues, including Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the DPRK's provocative actions, and U.S. concerns with PRC intelligence activities in Cuba," it said of Blinken's meetings with his Chinese counterparts in a press release. PRC stands for the People's Republic of China.

"The secretary made clear that the United States will work with its allies and partners to advance our vision for a world that is free, open and upholds the rules-based international order," it added.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)


en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 19, 2023



2. Starvation turned young North Koreans into the 'Jangmadang Generation'. Outside Kim Jong Un's brutal reign, they're thriving


A threat to Kim Jong Un. This is why he has been using the "COVID paradox" to go after market activity. While this activity is portrayed in a positive light (and it is a good thing for those undertaking these activities (until Kim cracks down) what we should really understand is that things are very bad inside north Korea for the Korean people and we need to be ready for what might come next.


Starvation turned young North Koreans into the 'Jangmadang Generation'. Outside Kim Jong Un's brutal reign, they're thriving

ABC.net.au · by North Asia correspondent James Oaten and Sookyoung Lee in Seoul · June 19, 2023

Ju Chan Yang fled one of the world's most oppressive and isolated regimes a decade ago when she was just a teenager.

Her escape from North Korea and the dictatorship of the Kim family followed years of starvation and doing all she could to survive.

From 1994 to 1998, the country experienced one of the worst famines in living memory.

It worsened after a flood in August 1995 destroyed rice crops, bringing the state's brittle agricultural system crashing down with it.

Millions died of starvation during a period commonly referred to as "the Arduous March".

"In North Korea, life was a challenge," Ms Ju said.

"It was a life-and-death challenge."

Amid this catastrophe, the so-called Jangmadang markets emerged, an underground system where people would trade whatever goods they could muster to get by.

The free-trading hubs were a drastic shift in a country that heavily relied on central planning.

Workers were paid in rations, not cash, and profits were not only unheard of, but also illegal.

Sokeel Park — the director of Liberty in North Korea, which produced a documentary on the topic — said older generations struggled to adapt to the new system.

Kim Jong Un compares economic woes to 1990s famine

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un compares his country's severe economic difficulties to a 1990s famine that laid waste to the isolated society.


Read more

Younger generations fared better.

"The North Korean economy was one of the most demonetised, the most tightly controlled, government planned economies of the 20th century," he said.

"People were working in factories or government-assigned workplaces. Receiving rations is a fairly simple life.

"But with the famine of the 1990s, that government control system and government provision system broke down, and it meant that North Korean people had to fend for themselves."

Those who grew up during this time and have since escaped have found the skills they used to survive rather helpful to thrive in capitalist South Korea.

They have been dubbed the "Jangmadang Generation" in a nod to the markets that taught them how to be entrepreneurial in the face of oppression.

North Korea's millennial defectors are thriving

It's the lunchtime rush at a restaurant just outside the South Korean capital, Seoul, and Ms Ju is scurrying from the kitchen to tables as she serves dishes to hungry customers.

The restaurant, which serves North Korean food and employs North Korean staff, is part of a broader wellness centre the 31-year-old operates.

There's a cafe and various spa treatments available, including acupuncture.

Ms Ju has a side hustle selling jewellery. She also plans to grow her own seasonal vegetables to use in her restaurant.

It's a far cry from the life she once had just across the border.

When the famine struck when she was growing up, Ms Ju's family moved to the North Korean countryside to forage for vegetables and grow whatever food they could.


Ms Ju's family moved to the North Korean countryside to forage for vegetables when the famine hit in the 1990s.(ABC News: James Oaten)

"Still, the hunger persisted," she said.

She first learnt the ways of the Jangmadang from her mother, who sold tofu, alcohol and a type of candy called "corn taffy".

Ms Ju watched carefully as money traded hands, noting important lessons about how to get ahead despite the oppressive environment.

"I grew up helping with those things while my mum worked hard," she said.

While they were making enough to get by, the family knew they had to escape North Korea to live a better life.

But fleeing as an entire family unit was not only too expensive, but also too obvious.

Survival skills lay foundation for business success

Ms Ju's father was the first one to make the dangerous trip across the border to China in 2008, followed by her mother and younger brother a year later.

At 17, she was left behind and had to survive on her own until she and her family could save up enough money for her to leave.

She started by sorting through leftover soybeans at a nearby factory and selling them at the markets, before she was able to built up enough money to start selling candy.

Through this business she was able to earn higher profits.

"I had to survive. I was able to earn enough to not starve to death. Besides that, it was also fun to make money," she said.

After 12 months alone, she made the daring escape across the border into China, using money her dad has sent over from South Korea to bribe a soldier.

"A border guard soldier helped me when I crossed the Tumen River," Ms Ju said.

"He could have arrested me and shot me."

Ms Ju believes her entrepreneurial spirit was forged during the years she spent working at the Jangmadang markets.

"I think life in North Korea has become a good foundation for me," she said.

"In South Korea, people seem to live in a fear of breaking a stable life or safe job. I like to be adventurous and try new things, and I think it's all because of my past.

Ms Ju said she is not afraid to start new things, and always tries to think positively.

"Even if I fail, I can think 'Ah, it was fun,'" she said.

It's an outlook that other members of the Jangmadang Generation share.

Park Yo Sep was in third grade when the famine struck, and forced him to grow up quickly.

In order to keep his family alive, his dad gave him their entire savings, which he used to buy mushrooms and sell to Chinese soldiers across the border.


Every morning, Park Yo Sep goes to the market to buy fresh produce.(ABC News: James Oaten)

He fled North Korea when he was 17, and worked various jobs, including as a shepherd and bar waiter, as he made his way to a refugee camp in Thailand.

Now, at 41, Mr Park owns two cafes in South Korea, and is looking at making an outdoor adventure business for high-school students.

For him, being part of the Jangmadang Generation means "independence from government".

"A lot of people went to the mountains, and get some vegetables or food, and sell to the markets," he said.

"Some people sold their rice to the markets and [traded] with each other. That's how people survived.

"Those who did not do business passed away."

In the North, 'it's worse than before'

The threat of starvation never left the people of North Korea, but for the last few years, the country has been in the grips of its worst food shortage since the infamous famine of the 1990s.

North Korea, despite being dubbed the "hermit kingdom", still relies on trade to keep its people fed, including wheat from China.

But during the pandemic, North Korea shut its borders to keep the virus out.

It ultimately failed to keep COVID-19 at bay, and further exacerbated the state's hunger crisis.

The extreme measures introduced at the time also meant that even the little unofficial trade that emerged in the 1990s was no longer possible.

"Now, it's worse than before," Ms Ju said.

Rather than focus its dwindling resources on economic reform, which experts say the regime desperately needs, leader Kim Jong Un has spent big to carry out a record number of missile tests.


Mr Kim has stepped up North Korea's missile tests in the last few years.(AP: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service)

Mr Sokeel said the North Korean regime's tighter control over the population meant it was harder to ascertain what was happening in the country.

He said what makes this period unique and, in some ways, even more difficult than previous periods of intense hardship in North Korea is that there wasn't just food scarcity.

The economy was also in a very bad state and at the same time, the North Korean government's control and repression increased with the pandemic, he added.

"It's really making it a lot more difficult for North Korean people to fend for themselves," he said.

War games return to the Korean peninsula

North Korea has fired off a record number of ballistic missiles in the past 18 months, but the threats are being met by an emboldened South Korea, which is muscling up and strengthening alliances old and new.


Read more

The tough border controls also mean the number of defectors able to flee the regime has dried up.

Only 34 defectors reached South Korea in the first quarter of this year, according to South Korea's unification ministry, compared to more than 1,000 a year in the years before the pandemic.

Recent satellite pictures show China is expanding three facilities suspected to be used to detain captured North Korean defectors, according to reporting from online publisher NK News.

But even escaping to the South does not mean the hardships are over.

Even in the South, defectors face problems

Discrimination against North Koreans and a lack of opportunity for defectors can be so severe defectors have contemplated returning home. Some have followed through.

The cable TV talk show Kim Jong Un's regime watches in fear

South Korean television shows are increasingly finding their way across the border into the North. One show in particular carries a message Kim Jong Un wants to stamp out.


Read more

Despite government and non-government programs to assist defectors, some slip through the cracks.

In 2019, a North Korean mother and her six-year-old son starved to death in their apartment in Seoul.

The pair were only discovered when a serviceman inspecting the gas metre noticed a bad smell.

While the Jangmadang Generation have become renowned for their resilience, the older generations can find it extremely difficult.

"When North Koreans leave North Korea, it's not like other people leaving other countries," Mr Park said.

"They almost always completely lose all of the relationships they've been building up in their life, all of their school friends, work friends, family, or their community.

"They come to South Korea, and they can't be in contact over the phone, sending letters, or those kinds of things that we would expect to be able to do."

Mr Park has had to battle loneliness in the South, as his parents and extended family remain back in the North.

But despite the many challenges of adapting to the capitalist South, he says his life experiences have given him "grit".

"When you start a new business, you kind of become an orchestral conductor, you have to do everything by yourself," he said.

"[The North Korean experience] made me not give up … to go forward and not settle down."


Sokeel Park said North Koreans had to fend for themselves during the 1990s famine.(ABC News: James Oaten)

ABC.net.au · by North Asia correspondent James Oaten and Sookyoung Lee in Seoul · June 19, 2023


3. Cabinet approves establishment of new drone command


Tuesday

June 20, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Cabinet approves establishment of new drone command

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/06/20/national/defense/Korea-North-Korea-drone/20230620174151268.html


Prime Minister Han Duck-soo speaks at a Cabinet meeting at the Central Government Complex in Jongno District, central Seoul, on Tuesday, where a bill establishing a new drone operations command was approved. [YONHAP]

 

South Korea's Cabinet on Tuesday approved the establishment of a drone operations command in September to counter potential North Korean unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) infiltrations.

 

South Korean military officials have said the new command will operate under an aggressive counter-drone doctrine that would see the South send 10 or more UAVs to Pyongyang for every North Korean drone that enters the South.

 

At Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, where the bill establishing the drone command was approved, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo called on the military to make full preparations for a successful launch of the new command so that it can respond “effectively and overwhelmingly” to future drone-based incursions.



 

The new drone operations command forms part of South Korean defensive measures adopted in response to the incursion of five North Korean drones that crossed the inter-Korean border in December last year.

 

One of the North Korean drones is believed to have infiltrated a no-fly zone over the presidential office in central Seoul. 

 

The prime minister noted that “the North used unmanned aerial vehicles to trespass on our airspace” and that “even now, [North Korean] provocations that threaten peace and security on the Korean Peninsula have not ceased.”

 

He asked the Defense Ministry and the Joint Chiefs of Staff to “make every effort to ensure the launch of the new drone command goes smoothly so that it can perfectly execute its duties from the beginning.”

 

According to an anonymous military official cited by Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean military “has internally determined to send 10 or more drones to Pyongyang and have them fly over key targets there for [every] one drone North Korea sends into Seoul airspace.”

 

While Defense Ministry spokesman Jeon Ha-kyu declined to specify the new command’s internal doctrine, he emphasized that South Korea’s military will undertake countermeasures in the event of another North Korean drone infiltration to exercise its “right to self-defense.”

 

The military plans to acquire 100 small UAVs with a flight range that can cover the whole of the North by the end of this month, according to the source cited by Yonhap.

 

Each of the drones will be equipped with a GPS-based navigational instrument, a flight guidance system and an automated information deletion program if it crashes within North Korea.

 

The military is also believed to have already purchased drones for longer-term reconnaissance operations.

 

According to the Defense Ministry, the new drone command will be charged with carrying out a wide variety of missions, including surveillance, reconnaissance and potential strike operations, psychological and electromagnetic warfare, as well as future drone development over the course of operations. 

 

The North Korean drone incursions in December revealed the limitations of the South’s aerial defenses and detection systems against the North’s small UAVs, which were able to evade interception despite South Korean efforts to shoot them down.

 

They also raised concerns that the North would be able to carry out strike operations against key facilities in the South in the event of hostilities.

 

In response, South Korea has moved to implement countermeasures against drone infiltration attempts, such as regular air defense exercises and procuring systems that jam drone signals.

 


BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]




4. A tripartite summit must be held shortly


Tripartite: ROK-Japan and China.


Tuesday

June 20, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

A tripartite summit must be held shortly

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/06/20/opinion/columns/Korea-Japan-China/20230620193952791.html




Bek Bum-hym

The author is a deputysecretary-general of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat.


The Korea-Japan-China Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS) held an event at the Cheonggye Plaza in downtown Seoul on May 30. TCS is an intergovernmental organization established in Seoul in 2011 to promote lasting peace, mutual prosperity and cultural commonality among the three countries. The highlight of the event, attended by many Seoulites and tourists who visited the venue that day, was the naming of the crested ibis, chosen as the symbol of cooperation among the three countries.


The bird was given the name “Yeonwu” in Korean through a vote by the people of Korea, Japan and China. It means “bridging friendship” among the three countries. The birds could be easily seen anywhere in Korea, but they became extinct in 1979 due to the destruction of the ecosystem following the Korean War and industrialization. The situation in Japan was not much different from that in Korea. The birds were last seen in Japan in 1993.




Fortunately, a few wild ibises survived in Hanzhong, Shaanxi Province of China. The crested ibises found near Upo wetland in Changnyeong, South Gyeongsang are descendants of the birds donated by China in 2008 and 2013. In 1999, Japan also succeeded in artificially breeding the birds in an island in Niigata Prefecture by using the crested ibises donated by China.


Despite their differences, Korea, Japan and China are countries that import and process raw materials, including energy, and then export them overseas. The three countries are experiencing sharply-declining birthrates and rapid-aging societies. The three have to find their own way of survival amid complex crises caused by strategic competition between the U.S. and China, the Ukraine war and climate changes. All three are in a situation like a small boat sailing in a dark stormy sea.


The Korea-Japan-China summit, which served as a diplomatic compass for the three, has not been held since the 2019 meeting in Chengdu, China. Coupled with the Covid-19 pandemic, the worsening international situation from strategic contest between America and China has obstructed the trilateral summit from being held.


Why should the trilateral summit be resumed? First, it will help overcome the aftermaths brought about by the reduction in people-to-people exchanges caused by the pandemic. It will be of great help in resolving the restrictions on people-to-people exchanges directly related to international business and easing public sentiments against the other country.


Second, the trilateral summit will help the economies of the three countries regain their vitalities by maintaining value chains and supply chains the decoupling of supply chains. All three economies have lost their vitalities due to the pandemic, strategic competition between the U.S. and China, and the deceasing labor and purchasing powers from low birthrates. Korea has been recording a trade deficit for 15 consecutive months and a decline in economic growth.


Third, the trilateral summit will be a great opportunity to discuss issues such as regional security, environment and climate change. There are many pending issues on which the leaders of the three countries need to put together their wisdom, such as the security issues on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and energy supply and demand.


Fourth, strengthening trilateral cooperation through the summit will play a key role in promoting peace and stability in East Asia and the West Pacific region.


As we can see from the case of the crested ibises, Korea, Japan and China — which share the Korean Strait and the Yellow Sea — must overcome crises together, become stimulant for one another, and maintain and develop peace. The three countries must expel the ghost of nationalism from their minds. For the sake of the three countries’ future, their people must deep their understanding of one another with an open mind.


Korea is currently standing at a crossroads for its survival as a nation, as it suffers its ultralow birthrate of 0.78 and intensified deglobalization. The two crises are like a ticking time bomb that can destroy Korea at any moment. First, it needs to improve and strengthen relations with neighbors Japan and China. To resolve the fundamental security and economic issues facing the three countries, the trilateral summit must take place as soon as possible.


Korea is the host of the upcoming summit. Only when the three countries’ leaders put their heads together and have serious discussions can they resolve the problems that have accumulated so far and move forward together.


Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.



5. Korea-US alliance serves as 'compass for freedom'


I like "compass for freedom."  


This is space focused.


Excerpts;


The improvement in bilateral relations has been especially noticeable in the area of defense, Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul said.

"The two countries have been working together to reinforce extended deterrence since the Korea-U.S. summit in May last year, which produced results with the Washington Declaration in April this year," Shin said in his keynote speech, in reference to the bilateral agreement that opened their communication channel regarding the use of Washington's nuclear arsenal against potential threats to Seoul.

He said the cooperation is now expanding into space, which has become increasingly critical for future technologies.


Korea-US alliance serves as 'compass for freedom'

The Korea Times · by 2023-06-20 16:51 | Foreign Affairs · June 20, 2023

Panelists engage in discussions during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation," at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

Forged in war 70 years ago, deep ties expand into space

By Jung Min-ho


Forged in battle seven decades ago to protect the values of freedom and democracy, the Korea-U.S. alliance today seeks to set an example of liberty and peace for countries that support the same principles, top-level government officials in Seoul said Tuesday.


What began as a military treaty has strengthened and expanded into a wide scope of sectors, ranging from the environment to space, as the two countries celebrate the 70th anniversary of their special partnership and bond this year.


At the 2023 Korea Times Forum, themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation," policymakers and experts from different fields shared their views on how the alliance has not just survived, but thrived despite major challenges over the past decades. They also noted the potential geopolitical risks that are poised to test the alliance further in the coming years.


Second Vice Foreign Minister Lee Do-hoon speaks during his keynote speech at the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation" at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul


Reiterating that vision, laid out by President Yoon Suk Yeol in front of the U.S. Congress in April, Second Vice Foreign Minister Lee Do-hoon said that Korea, along with the U.S., will play a role as a "compass for freedom" in spreading the vision to other countries.


"The value that gave birth to the Korea-U.S. alliance 70 years ago still binds them firmly," he said during his keynote speech for the forum at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul. "Our alliance will lead the way for the free world and grow into a righteous one that will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the world."


Lee said the alliance has been successful, because it is based on shared values rather than short-term economic interests.


"The power of the Korea-U.S. alliance stems from our key shared values: freedom, human rights and the rule of law," he said. "If (the two countries) sought transactional, convenient benefits, it would have been impossible to develop the alliance into what it is today."


Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul speaks during his keynote speech at the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation" at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul


The improvement in bilateral relations has been especially noticeable in the area of defense, Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul said.


"The two countries have been working together to reinforce extended deterrence since the Korea-U.S. summit in May last year, which produced results with the Washington Declaration in April this year," Shin said in his keynote speech, in reference to the bilateral agreement that opened their communication channel regarding the use of Washington's nuclear arsenal against potential threats to Seoul.


He said the cooperation is now expanding into space, which has become increasingly critical for future technologies.


"Korea and the U.S. will continue to strengthen security ties in space," he said. "It would be the crucial component of their renewed 70-year alliance in the economy as well as security."


Lee Young-hoon, senior pastor at Yoido Full Gospel Church, speaks during his speech at the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation" at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk


The alliance of the two countries may have started as a result of the 1950-53 Korean War, but personal relationships among citizens began far earlier with American missionaries, who built schools and hospitals here to spread the gospel, Yoido Full Gospel Church Senior Pastor Lee Young-hoon said.


"The seeds of the gospel were the cornerstones of the alliance," he said.

Yet the rapidly shifting geopolitical situation, where the Washington-Beijing competition for hegemony continues to intensify, presents new challenges to that partnership, said Seung Myung-ho, chairman of The Korea Times and its sister publication, The Hankook Ilbo.


Seung Myung-ho, second from left, chairman of The Korea Times and its sister publication, The Hankook Ilbo, smiles as he speaks with Second Vice Foreign Minister Lee Do-hoon at the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation" at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul


In the first session, moderated by Go Myong-hyun, a senior researcher of the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, experts discussed how the Sino-U.S. rivalry and risk factors, such as armed conflict over Taiwan between the two superpowers, could test the alliance.


In the following session, moderated by Park Si-soo, SpaceNews Asia correspondent and CEO of Spaceradar, the panelists talked about the potential that space exploration offers to the two countries' relationship.


Some 100 figures, including foreign ambassadors and diplomats in Korea, CEOs and other heads of companies and financial groups, attended the forum.



The Korea Times · by 2023-06-20 16:51 | Foreign Affairs · June 20, 2023



6. S. Korea should start mending China ties soon: experts


Will China pledge to cease economic warfare against the ROK?


S. Korea should start mending China ties soon: experts

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · June 20, 2023

As the US and China have agreed to stabilize their escalating rivalry in talks that have partially calmed growing worries over a full-on confrontation between the two superpowers, efforts should be made for South Korea to repair ties with China as soon as possible, preferably by the end of the year, experts said Tuesday.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands on a more stable relationship during a rare visit by a top American diplomat, the first in five years. The two-day trip that ended Monday, however, has not led to major breakthroughs on a long list of disputes ranging from trade to security -- a divide that has forced other countries to pick sides.

For South Korea, security and trade implications involving Washington and Beijing -- Seoul’s biggest ally and trading partner, respectively -- are something the current Yoon administration wants resolved through policy meant to focus on backing a US-led coalition that often faces pushback from China.

In the last two weeks, Seoul-Beijing ties soured further, with the two countries having called in each other’s top envoy in a tit-for-tat spat over the Chinese ambassador’s public warning against Korea on making a “wrong bet” on China losing out to the US.

Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said Seoul should now see to efforts to mend ties with Beijing, all the while working with Washington, because the two Asian neighbors “could advance common interests.” South Korea and the US have long worked on denuclearizing North Korea.

“Such disarmament is something that China is interested in as well,” Kang said, stressing Seoul could better communicate to Beijing that a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula prompted by closer Seoul-Washington ties works to its advantage in the end. China denounces a three-way US-led coalition of South Korea and Japan that is putting checks on Pyongyang.

Another approach the Yoon administration could try to restore ties, Kang added, is toning down its rhetoric over Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island China says could be taken over by force if necessary. Yoon has said he opposes any unilateral attempts to change the status quo on the island by force.

“That was a textbook answer,” Kang said, referring to any international peace efforts that would not condone any change by coercion. South Korea still respects one China policy so Beijing has nothing to hold against Seoul, according to Kang.

Chung Jae-hung, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute, said he sees the need for better Seoul-Beijing ties, adding however such change would come at cost because the Yoon administration would have to potentially walk back on its policy leaning on the US.

“The US and China are in a fight on all fronts, so what’s politically disagreeable is also economically (disagreeable),” Chung said of potential preconditions that China could demand of Korea in order to mend ties.

The Taiwan issue is such a divisive political topic Beijing wants Seoul to back down on, according to Chung.

“But I don’t think the Yoon administration would go for that,” Chung said, referring to Yoon’s national security adviser’s remarks earlier this month that the government is seeking “equal footing” on its ties with China. Cho Tae-yong, the security chief, suggested Seoul would not give in to Beijing’s demands as easily as the previous administration.

But other analysts said China could positively respond to Korea’s outreach, because for Beijing now, economic concerns are greater than political considerations.

“The recent US-China talks are a demonstration of two powers coming together for some sign of economic stability, despite the lingering political differences,” said Choo Jae-woo, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Kyung Hee University.



By Choi Si-young (siyoungchoi@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · June 20, 2023



7. S. Korea-US alliance should open new chapter for next 70 years, experts say



I did not participate in this conference so perhaps it was discussed. But this article makes no mention of the critical strategic aim for the alliance going forward and that is the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. John Delury asks , where are we going? It should be onward toward unification.


Especially after both presidents said that they want a free and peaceful unified Korea, why won't the pundits, and policymakers, press, and the public recognize that?


S. Korea-US alliance should open new chapter for next 70 years, experts say

The Korea Times · June 20, 2023

Panelists engage in discussion during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation," at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. From left are Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Lee Geun, professor of international politics at Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, and Chun In-bum, former South Korean Army Lt. general and ex-commander of the Special Warfare Command. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk 


Fence-mending between Washington, Beijing puts Seoul in awkward position

By Lee Hyo-jin


Formed with the signing of the mutual defense treaty in 1953, the primary goal of the South Korea-U.S. alliance was to protect Seoul from possible North Korean attacks. Over the past 70 years, the bilateral ties have expanded to various areas including trade, technology and culture.


But with the international order becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable, experts called for more efforts from both sides and clear mutual goals to maintain the ironclad alliance throughout the next 70 decades.


Chun In-bum, former South Korean Army Lt. general and former commander of the Special Warfare Command, saw that Seoul should be more "open and honest" in its relations with Washington.


"We're on a strong path and everything is great ... (But) just because we have a great relationship with the U.S. now, it doesn't mean that we're going to have a great relationship in the next 70 years," he said during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation," Tuesday.


In order to maintain the ironclad alliance, he advised South Korea to be more "open and honest about its opinions," based on the idea that the Asian nation is a unique ally to the U.S. bringing a special value.


"The alliance has a very strong history built up for 70 years with a clear purpose, or a raison d'etre, which is 1950," said John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, referring to the 1950-53 Korean War. "The beginning of this relationship was to ensure that the war never happens again."


In that sense, he pointed out that the peaceful mood between the two Koreas as witnessed in 2018 during the previous Moon Jae-in government was destabilizing for the South Korea-U.S. alliance.​

"I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic, but I do think that there are some big questions looming, like, 'We are going together, but to where exactly, and will the raison d'etre be sufficient to support it decade after decade?'"


Lee Geun, a professor of international politics at Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, hoped the bilateral relationship might expand to multilateral or trilateral levels, which would enable South Korea to forge stronger partnerships with like-minded allies.


Meanwhile, the experts consider the latest agreement between U.S. and China that could stabilize the intensifying rivalry as potentially posing uncertainties to South Korea's foreign policy on China. Since the conservative Yoon Suk Yeol​ ​ administration took office, Seoul has been closely aligning with Washington, to the displeasure of Beijing.


Delury said the recent visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping may "change the weather" in formal relationships between the two nations, at least for a while. The U.S.-China dynamics may now move in multiple directions simultaneously, giving confusing signals to the international community.


"Countries like (South) Korea, if they don't get the timing right, can suddenly be caught sticking their neck out. I think that's actually happening a little bit right now," he said.


Panelists pose during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation," at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk 


Lingering questions over US nuclear pledge


Among the agendas of the discussion was the Washington Declaration signed by Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden in April. Under the agreement, the U.S. pledged to offer stronger extended deterrence and South Korea reaffirmed its stance as a non-nuclear state.


"I think there's no doubt about the capability of the U.S. But the issue is whether it has the willingness or resolve (to execute a nuclear deterrent)," Chun said.

"In plain terms, will the U.S. be willing to sacrifice New York or Washington, D.C. for Seoul? I personally think 'yes.' In fact, the U.S. has no choice. If they do not respond forcefully, their credibility will be shot."​

On the other hand, Lee said that South Korea should "go nuclear" to obtain a stronger and independent defense posture, but only if several conditions are met.


"I am not saying that we should go nuclear immediately," he said, adding such a move would trigger economic sanctions from the international community and worsened relations with Washington. "But one of my biggest concerns is the failure of U.S. extended deterrence on the Taiwan Strait. In the case of a failure there, many (South) Koreans and strategists would not trust the extended deterrence, especially about the U.S.' resolve to use its nuclear weapons."


Also, given that there is no democratic country in Asia with its own nuclear weapon, a nuclear-armed South Korea may be able to provide extended deterrence to its (democratic) Asian allies, Lee added.

The Korea Times · June 20, 2023


8. SOCKOR Change of Command June 2023 | SOF News



SOCKOR Change of Command June 2023 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 20, 2023


Brig. Gen. Derek Lipson replaced Maj. Gen. Michael Martin as the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command – Korea (SOCKOR) during a change-of-command ceremony at Camp Humphreys, South Korea on June 12, 2023.

The position is a dual-hat role, as both commander of SOCKOR and the United Nations Command Special Operations Component (UNCSOC). Senior members of the U.S. and South Korean military and governments attended the event. The U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict, Christopher Maier, was in attendence.

Martin took command of SOCKOR on June 23, 2021. Prior to that he was the Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) Director of Operations. Martin began his career as an enlisted Airman in 1985 serving as an Electronic Warfare Technician. After his first enlistment he left the Air Force to attend college and join ROTC. Upon graduation in 1992 from Texas A&M University he received his commission in the Air Force. He began his career in the Combat Control field. He has spent his career in special operations, the air staff, and has had numerous combat deployments. Martin is moving on to be the J3, Director of Operations at U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Florida.


Photo: Major General Martin, SOCKOR commander, hosts senior RoK Officers at Osan Air Base in March 2023. This meeting took place during Exercise Teak Knife.

Lipson was previously assigned as the deputy commanding general support for the 1st Special Forces Command (Airborne) at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. He started his career in the Army in 1990 as a Infantry Platoon Leader. In 1993 he began his long career in Special Forces. Lipson has had numerous overseas and combat deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other locations around the world.


Maps by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

**********

Video – SOCKOR CoC Ceremony, Defense Now, YouTube, June 13, 2023, 43 minutes. https://www.dvidshub.net/video/886523/sockor-change-command

Biography – Major General Michael E. Martin, U.S. Air Force

Biography – Brigadier General Derek N. Lipson, U.S. Army

Top photo: Image by Special Operations Command Korea, June 12, 2023. Posted on SOCKOR Twitter account.


sof.news · by SOF News · June 20, 2023


9. Korea, US urged to expand space cooperation into commercial sector


Korea, US urged to expand space cooperation into commercial sector

The Korea Times · June 20, 2023

Park Si-soo, left, CEO of Spaceradar, a local space market intelligence provider, speaks during the 2023 Korea Times Forum's second session discussing space cooperation between Korea and the United States, at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. The participants include Space Policy Research Center research fellow Shin Sang-woo, second from left, and Chung-Ang University political science and international relations professor Lee Seung-joo. From left on the screen are Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) associate fellow Makena Young and NASA's international program specialist Peyton Blackstock, who joined the session online. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul By Baek Byung-yeul


Korea and the United States should strengthen not only military and scientific cooperation in the space industry, but also commerce cooperation in launch vehicles, satellites, semiconductors and tourism, as the combination of the U.S.' advanced technology and Korea's strong production capabilities can create synergy in the rapidly emerging industry, experts said during the 2023 Korea Times Forum, Tuesday.


The Korea Times held a forum in central Seoul under the theme "Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation" to explore ways for the two allies to bolster cooperation in security and space. The second session of the forum highlighted their growing cooperation in the emerging space sector as the two nations celebrate the 70th anniversary of their alliance this year.


Moderated by Park Si-soo, CEO of Spaceradar, a local space market intelligence provider, the participating experts in the discussion session included Space Policy Research Center research fellow Shin Sang-woo and professor Lee Seung-joo of the department of political science and international relations at Chung-Ang University. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) associate fellow Makena Young and NASA international program specialist Peyton Blackstock joined the discussion session via videoconferencing.


At the session, experts said it was notable that President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden used the phrase "strengthening U.S.-ROK commercial space cooperation" in their joint statement in Washington, D.C., in April.


While the two countries have a long history of military cooperation, their cooperation in space began only in the 1990s, and has been primarily about scientific exploration.


In recent years, however, the two countries have been expanding their cooperation in the space sector. In 2021, Korea joined the U.S.-led Artemis Accords on the exploration and use of the moon, Mars and beyond, and the U.S. lifted restrictions on Korea's missile launch range and solid fuel use, opening the door to space rocket launches. In addition, the Danuri lunar orbiter, which settled into lunar orbit last year, is observing the shadowed region of the moon with NASA's ShadowCam equipment.


The experts said that the series of cooperation demonstrates that the two countries have a mutually beneficial relationship in the space sector. In particular, they said that despite the U.S. having a clear technological advantage over Korea in the space sector, the continued expansion of cooperation with Korea shows that the U.S. cannot sustain this ecosystem alone, but must expand partnerships with various countries ― including Korea ― in the space industry, which is set to grow tremendously in size in the coming years.


"It is my understanding that the phrase commercial space cooperation is used in a reciprocal sense. I think not only Korea but also the U.S. wants commercial cooperation in space. This is because both countries want to work together to expand into overseas markets," Shin said.


"From a Korean perspective, for instance, U.S. export regulations allow Korean companies to import critical components made in the U.S. to build satellites more quickly, but there have been many delays due to regulations. Korea would like to strengthen commercial cooperation with the U.S. to strengthen this aspect and increase exports to overseas markets."


Young said the commercial applications of the space industry could extend beyond satellites and space tourism to semiconductors.


"There are more ways to be involved in the space sector for industry not only satellites as there are increasing China's semiconductors smaller parts. Korea has a very innovative workforce that is has strong technology backgrounds, and that can really be called upon to be integrated into space capabilities as well. The U.S. tourism space sector is very strong, and it's one of our strengths as a nation and I think that other countries do that and we would like to help develop other countries' industries as well," Young said.


NASA's international program specialist Peyton Blackstock, joins the 2023 Korea Times Forum's second session online, which discusses space cooperation between Korea and the United States, held at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul 


Mentioning that "the commercial space economy is booming," Blackstock said that the "U.S. and Korea have a 70-year history of working together and learning from each other, and commercial space is just another sector in which we will continue to use."


Lee Seung-joo, a Chung-Ang University professor, said as we witnessed in the war between Russia and Ukraine, where commercial satellites are utilized for military applications, increased cooperation in the commercial sectors of the two nations means increased cooperation in the military and scientific sectors as well.


"The U.S. can't do it all on its own, which is why we're increasing partnerships like the Artemis Accords. There are over 3,800 companies in the Artemis program. It's not just traditional space companies, but a lot of non-traditional space companies as well. This is a huge opportunity for Korean companies," the professor said.

The Korea Times · June 20, 2023


10. Mounting national debt erodes S. Korea's competitiveness: report



Mounting national debt erodes S. Korea's competitiveness: report

Deteriorating fiscal health pulls down national competitiveness ranking to 28th

koreaherald.com · by Im Eun-byel · June 20, 2023

South Korea's global competitiveness ranking fell by one notch this year, as the country suffers from an expanding fiscal deficit, a report showed Tuesday.

Korea ranked 28th in terms of global competitiveness among 64 countries surveyed, according to the 2023 report by the International Institute for Management Development.

Korea’s ranking in government efficiency came down to No. 38 this year, moving two places down from 2022.

The Switzerland-based international institution has released the annual report since 1989, evaluating competitiveness of each nation based on its economic achievements, infrastructure, and government and corporate efficiency.

The criteria evaluate the fiscal sustainability, efficiency of tax policies and more.

Under the government efficiency criteria, Korea’s ranking for public finance moved down eight rungs to No. 40, dragged down by the slip in performance in the government budget balance to GDP ratio, total general government debt to GDP ratio and the real growth of total general government debt.

According to the Finance Ministry, the national debt-to-GDP ratio climbed from 37.6 percent in 2019, 43.6 percent in 2020, 46.9 percent in 2021 and to 49.6 percent in 2022.

The country's fiscal shortfall has been increasing at a fast clip. The government expects the fiscal deficit to reach 58.2 trillion won ($45.4 billion) this year.

“Worsening fiscal balance and growth of national debt affected the evaluation,” an official from the Finance Ministry explained at a press briefing for the report held Monday.

“As the government has decided to suppress the rate of increase of the national budget at the most, this will be improved in the future,” the official said.

The report delivered some good news. In terms of economic achievements, Korea saw its ranking move up eight places to No. 14, the highest ever. The previous record was set at No. 15 in 2015.

Under the economic achievements criteria, apart from the evaluation on international trade falling 12 spots to 42nd place due to slow exports, all other areas showed improvement.

Korea's ranking for economic achievements moved up largely due to stabilized prices and a favorable labor market. Inflation in Korea has cooled down, with its consumer prices increasing by 3.3 percent on-year in May, nearing the Bank of Korea’s target rate set at 2 percent.

Korea also maintained its spot at 33rd for corporate efficiency and at 16th in infrastructure.

“The foremost agenda is to improve government efficiency which led to the drop in national competitiveness,” the Finance Ministry official said.

“We will work for sound fiscal management through the legislation of fiscal rules and renovation of the public sector, increasing the efficiency of the government.”

Meanwhile, Denmark topped the list this year, maintaining the top spot from last year. Ireland moved up to second place, followed by Switzerland, Singapore and the Netherlands.

Among the 14 nations in Asia and the Pacific, Korea ranked seventh this year, down one notch from a year earlier. China came in at 21st, while Japan marked 35th.



By Im Eun-byel (silverstar@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Im Eun-byel · June 20, 2023

11. S. Korea crafts aggressive posture against potential NK drone infiltrations: source



S. Korea crafts aggressive posture against potential NK drone infiltrations: source

The Korea Times · June 20, 2023

Combined Joint Live-Fire Exercise at the Seungjin Fire Training Field in Pocheon is seen in this June 15 photo. Yonhap


The South Korean military has adopted an aggressive counter-drone operational principle, under which a single North Korean drone infiltration would prompt it to send 10 or more unmanned aerial vehicles into Pyongyang, a source said Tuesday.


The measure is part of Seoul's efforts to beef up air defenses after five North Korean drones intruded across the inter-Korean border in December last year, with one of them having penetrated a no-fly zone close to Seoul's presidential office.


The Cabinet approved a plan Tuesday to establish a drone operations command in September, in a culmination of counter-drone efforts.


"The military's internal determination is to send 10 or more drones to Pyongyang and have them fly over key targets there if North Korea sends one drone over the skies of Seoul," the source said on condition of anonymity.


Jeon Ha-kyu, spokesperson for the defense ministry, declined to specify the operational principle, but reiterated Seoul's position that it will take countermeasures in case of another drone infiltration in light of its "right to self-defense."


The military plans to secure 100 small drones, which can cover the whole of North Korea for reconnaissance operations, by the end of this month. It is also known to have procured drones suited for long-duration reconnaissance operations.

The small drone is said to be equipped with cutting-edge systems, including a GPS device, an inertial guidance system and a program designed to burn data storage if it crashes in North Korea.


The envisioned drone command is tasked with a wide range of missions, including surveillance, reconnaissance and strike operations, and psychological and electromagnetic warfare, as well as the operational development of drone assets, according to the plan.


The North's drone incursions in December sounded an alarm for policymakers, as unmanned vehicles could carry lethal weapons targeting key facilities in the South.

To address those concerns, South Korea has pushed for a series of measures, such as holding regular air defense drills and securing drone jamming guns and other assets. (Yonhap)



The Korea Times · June 20, 2023


​11. S. Korea crafts aggressive posture against potential NK drone infiltrations: source



S. Korea crafts aggressive posture against potential NK drone infiltrations: source

The Korea Times · June 20, 2023

Combined Joint Live-Fire Exercise at the Seungjin Fire Training Field in Pocheon is seen in this June 15 photo. Yonhap


The South Korean military has adopted an aggressive counter-drone operational principle, under which a single North Korean drone infiltration would prompt it to send 10 or more unmanned aerial vehicles into Pyongyang, a source said Tuesday.


The measure is part of Seoul's efforts to beef up air defenses after five North Korean drones intruded across the inter-Korean border in December last year, with one of them having penetrated a no-fly zone close to Seoul's presidential office.


The Cabinet approved a plan Tuesday to establish a drone operations command in September, in a culmination of counter-drone efforts.


"The military's internal determination is to send 10 or more drones to Pyongyang and have them fly over key targets there if North Korea sends one drone over the skies of Seoul," the source said on condition of anonymity.


Jeon Ha-kyu, spokesperson for the defense ministry, declined to specify the operational principle, but reiterated Seoul's position that it will take countermeasures in case of another drone infiltration in light of its "right to self-defense."


The military plans to secure 100 small drones, which can cover the whole of North Korea for reconnaissance operations, by the end of this month. It is also known to have procured drones suited for long-duration reconnaissance operations.

The small drone is said to be equipped with cutting-edge systems, including a GPS device, an inertial guidance system and a program designed to burn data storage if it crashes in North Korea.


The envisioned drone command is tasked with a wide range of missions, including surveillance, reconnaissance and strike operations, and psychological and electromagnetic warfare, as well as the operational development of drone assets, according to the plan.


The North's drone incursions in December sounded an alarm for policymakers, as unmanned vehicles could carry lethal weapons targeting key facilities in the South.

To address those concerns, South Korea has pushed for a series of measures, such as holding regular air defense drills and securing drone jamming guns and other assets. (Yonhap)



The Korea Times · June 20, 2023




De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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