Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the day:


“There is no good in anything until it is finished.”
- Genghis Khan

"The genius of the United States is not best or most in its executives or legislatures, nor in its ambassadors or authors or colleges, or churches, or parlors, nor even in its newspapers or inventors, but always most in the common people."
- Walt Whitman

"The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me." 
- Ayn Rand





1. NORTH KOREA: SCENARIOS FOR LEVERAGING NUCLEAR WEAPONS THROUGH 2030

2. N. Korea most likely to use nuclear weapons as means of coercion: U.S. intelligence report

3. China’s facial recognition technology hinders North Korean escapees

4. S. Korean rights watchdog head urges China to stop repatriation of N.K. defectors

5. S. Korea blocks access to N. Korean propaganda channels on YouTube

6. Yoon says S. Korea, Vietnam will strengthen cooperation on N. Korea, trade

7. 'Washington Declaration' a step in right direction for Korea-US alliance: Rep. Bera

8. Parliamentary foreign affairs committee chairman meets with U.S. House counterpart

9. Gov't to seek real-time information from Japan on Fukushima release

10. ​​N.Korea Reopens Remote Border with China

11. Is North Korea’s propagandist-in-chief also its dictator-in-waiting?







1. NORTH KOREA: SCENARIOS FOR LEVERAGING NUCLEAR WEAPONS THROUGH 2030


The four page (2 with the informaiton) declassified document can be downloaded here: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIC-Declassified-NIE-North-Korea-Scenarios-For-Leveraging-Nuclear-Weapons-June2023.pdf


This is from the January 2023 National Intelligence Estimate. I do not recall any part of an NIE on north Korea being declassified. I think it is very important that we consider this when developing and assessing policy and strategy toward north Korea.


I wonder how Kim will assess this when he reads it.


See the chart for a useful overview.


There is a Key Takeaway and three Key Judgements.


I think this report is in line with my long time assessment that Kim Jong Un is pursuing a three fold strategy: Political warfare to subvert South Korea and the ROK/US alliance; a blackmail diplomacy strategy that uses increased tensions, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions; and the pursuit of advanced warfighting capabilities (nuclear and missile) to support political warfare and blackmail diplomacy and if conditions are right seek to use force to unify the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure survival of the regime.


It is very important to assess the key judgements on offensive and defensive use of nuclear weapons. Note the low likelihood of use. Please study the report. We need to ensure we are conducting a superior political warfare strategy.  


This assessment supports a new strategy to counter north Korea: a human rights upfront approach, an information campaign, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. https://nipp.org/information_series/robert-joseph-robert-collins-joseph-detrani-nicholas-eberstadt-olivia-enos-david-maxwell-and-greg-scarlatoiu-national-strategy-for-countering-north-korea-no-545-january-23-2023/


NORTH KOREA: SCENARIOS FOR LEVERAGING NUCLEAR WEAPONS THROUGH 2030

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2023/item/2392-north-korea-scenarios-for-leveraging-nuclear-weapons-through-2030

Thursday, 22 June 2023 08:27


As part of our ongoing transparency efforts to enhance public understanding of the Intelligence Community’s (IC) work and to provide insights on national security issues, ODNI today is releasing this declassified IC report dated January 2023.

 

Download the report here.

 

About the National Intelligence Council:

 

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) plays a central role in coordinating intelligence products and is responsible for leading analysis across the IC to inform immediate and long-term policy deliberations. National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) serve as the principal subject matter experts to the DNI and national security decision makers on all aspects of analysis related to their regional and functional roles.

Published in Reports and Publications 2023































































2. N. Korea most likely to use nuclear weapons as means of coercion: U.S. intelligence report


Here is Yonhap's report on the NIE excerpt. This features comments from the National Intelligence Officer, Sydney Seiler.


N. Korea most likely to use nuclear weapons as means of coercion: U.S. intelligence report | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 23, 2023

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea will likely use its nuclear weapons to coerce political concessions from South Korea and its allies, a U.S. intelligence report said Thursday.

The office of the director of national intelligence (DNI) noted that Pyongyang may also employ non-nuclear, non-lethal attacks to advance its goals in the future, believing that its nuclear weapons will deter counter offensives.

"We assess that through 2030, Kim Jong-un most likely will continue to pursue a strategy of coercion, potentially including non-nuclear lethal attacks, aimed at advancing the North's goals of intimidating its neighbors, extracting concessions, and bolstering the regime's military credentials domestically," said the report, titled "National Intelligence Estimate" (NIE) on North Korea.


Sydney Seiler (L), National Intelligence Officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council, is seen speaking during a seminar hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies on June 22, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

The report, dated January 2023, was released Thursday as part of the DNI's transparency efforts, according to Sydney Seiler, National Intelligence Officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council.

"Kim, who has relied largely on non-lethal coercive measures throughout his rule, probably will employ targeted diplomatic and covert actions and may use limited military force to raise tensions as a means to press key foreign governments into adopting positions favorable to his objectives, confident that his growing nuclear capabilities will deter any unacceptable retaliation or consequence," the report added.

North Korea has launched nearly 100 ballistic missiles since the start of last year, firing an unprecedented 69 ballistic missiles in 2022 that marked the new annual record of ballistic missiles fired.

Seiler noted the U.S. intelligence community (IC) assessed three different scenarios where the North Korean leader may decide to use nuclear weapons for coercive, offensive or defensive purposes.

"The IC assesses that this offensive strategy seeking to seize territory, achieve political dominance over the peninsula and achieve these objectives that would include the use of nuclear weapons will be much less likely, much less likely than the strategy of coercion," he said while speaking at a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

"Defensive like the offense was seen to be very unlikely, compared to the coercive scenario," he added.

Seiler noted the main driver for North Korea's coercive strategy is its confidence that coercion will yield political, economic and military benefits while it also believes that the resulting escalation of tension will be "manageable."

"So you look at provocations over the history of North Korea. one thing that we see often is that these provocations tend not to escalate out of control like one normally would think," he told the meeting.

"We might even see periods of lessening of tensions on the peninsula. But again, we felt very unlikely that Kim would forego the very coercive options that his nuclear arsenal has provided," added Seiler.


The captured image shows the National Intelligence Estimate on North Korea released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on June 22, 2023. (Yonhap)

On whether Pyongyang may give up its nuclear weapons entirely, the U.S. intelligence official argued that it is unlikely to do so at least until it has achieved its goals.

"What I haven't mentioned one of the drivers here is incredible cost, incredible investment. Will Kim be looking at a return on investment? Why is he spending the amount of money that he is spending on missiles and nuclear weapons or North Korea doing this over the course of three decades in the absence of an imminent existential threat?" said Seiler.

"The NIE considered three scenarios of how Pyongyang could perceive value and the purpose of a growing nuclear arsenal through 2030. We assess that the coercive path is probably the most likely going forward, that Kim will most likely employ a variety of coercive methods and threats of aggression to see progress toward achieving his national security policies," he added.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 23, 2023

3.China’s facial recognition technology hinders North Korean escapees


As we know the Chinese are complicit in north Korean human rights abuses. This may be another technique that allows them to.


Excerpts:


While face of nearly every Chinese resident is registered in a government database, North Koreans escapees are not, and turn up nothing when scanned, Seo Jae-pyoung, head of the Association of the North Korean Defectors, a support group based in South Korea, told RFA’s Korean Service.
When the face does not match a profile, the police are quick to check on the person to determine why, he said.
While it's difficult to know for sure if the software has led to North Korean refugees getting captured in China, it has clearly raised the risks and costs for those trying to escape, those familiar with the situation say.

China’s facial recognition technology hinders North Korean escapees

With cameras at every train station, avoiding detection is almost impossible, experts say.

By Cheon Soram for RFA Korean

2023.06.22

rfa.org

Facial recognition technology in China is increasing the risk that North Korean escapees in China will be caught, and raising the prices charged by smugglers who assist them, sources who work closely with escapees told Radio Free Asia.

Most North Koreans who escape do so by crossing the northern border into China. But facial recognition systems there are spreading – with cameras installed on street corners and train stations – and used by Chinese police to keep track of the population on the streets.

While face of nearly every Chinese resident is registered in a government database, North Koreans escapees are not, and turn up nothing when scanned, Seo Jae-pyoung, head of the Association of the North Korean Defectors, a support group based in South Korea, told RFA’s Korean Service.

When the face does not match a profile, the police are quick to check on the person to determine why, he said.

While it's difficult to know for sure if the software has led to North Korean refugees getting captured in China, it has clearly raised the risks and costs for those trying to escape, those familiar with the situation say.

In March, the surveillance software appeared to be a key factor in the capture of five or six North Korean refugees and a local broker helping them move within China, Seo said. They were caught by Chinese police near the northeastern city of Dalian.

“It seems that those North Korean escapees were already tracked down,” he said. “It is highly likely that they were caught because they were unaware of the dangers of facial recognition technology and tracking.”

Seo said that artificial intelligence-based facial recognition technology has increased the risks facing North Koreans who want to escape. Typically, they travel discreetly through China all the way to Southeast Asia, where they take a flight to Seoul.

Sharp decrease

This may be one reason that the number of North Koreans who successfully reach the South are down, experts say.

Between 2001 and 2019 more than 1,000 North Koreans arrived in the South each year, reaching a peak of 2,914 in 2009. But this dropped to 229 in 2020 and then to the double digits in 2021 and 2022, data from the South Korean Ministry of Unification showed.

Much of the rapid decline is due to the COVID-19 pandemic, during which North Korea and China closed the entirety of the 1,350-kilometer (840-mile) Sino-Korean border, but experts say that facial recognition tech is also responsible.

The issue was raised before a U.S. Congressional hearing this month.

“The AI-based facial recognition program has made the North Korean refugees’ internal movement by public transportation within China almost impossible while the authorities have been using surveillance technology to monitor and intercept the escapees attempting to flee China,” Ethan Hee-Seok Shin, a legal analyst at the South Korea-based Transitional Justice Working Group, told the Congressional-Executive Commission on China on June 13.

A man walks past surveillance cameras in Beijing, Nov. 23 2021. Credit: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

The technology is spreading fear among escapees in China, Hanna Song, director of international cooperation at the South Korea-based Database Center for North Korean Human Rights, told the same hearing.

“China’s increasing use of emerging technology is being used as a tool of repression that affects the most vulnerable groups including North Korean refugees,” she said. “Many North Koreans spoke about how the advanced surveillance capabilities, such as facial recognition and biometric systems, are used to monitor and track the movements of those in China.”

There are no statistics on North Korean refugees caught or arrested as a result of facial recognition technology in China. Experts have explained that it is not easy to identify North Koreans because there are many foreigners who are not registered in China's surveillance system.

But sources told RFA that facial recognition likely has a role in the arrests of such refugees in China.

“Most of the North Korean escapees being arrested now [in China] can be attributed to facial recognition cameras,” Chun Ki-won, a reverend with the Durihana Mission, an organization that carries out rescue operations for escapees, told RFA.

Kim Sung-eun of the Caleb Mission, another group that assists escapees in China, said personnel from his organization were arrested with a group of escapees because of facial recognition technology.

“Some of our people got caught too, before COVID-19,” said Kim. “There is a facial recognition machine in front of the train station. They passed it and sat on the train and they were caught right away.”

All the escapees were forcibly repatriated to North Korea, he said.

A demonstration of face-recognize technology is displayed on Chinese State-owned surveillance equipment manufacturer Hikvision’s screen at Security China 2018 in Beijing, China, Oct. 23, 2018. Credit: Ng Han Guan/AP

Several officials of South Korea-based organizations told RFA that they believe facial recognition technology is having a great impact on escaped North Koreans.

“Cameras installed throughout China and artificial intelligence facial recognition technology have made it difficult for North Korean refugees to move, and awareness of fleeing North Koreans [in China] is growing,” said Ko Yonghwan, a former North Korean diplomat who is currently a non-resident senior researcher at Korean Institute for Military Affairs.

Because the technology is so advanced, China would even be able to surveil escapees at North Korea’s request, said Choo Jaewoo, a professor at the department of Chinese language and literature at Seoul’s Kyung Hee University.

“If North Korea requests tracking of a specific person and China accepts it, the risk of being caught by facial recognition technology could be much greater," said Choo.

Higher costs

The surveillance software has increased the risk facing brokers, prompting them to raise their prices.

Before facial recognition technology was so prevalent, it cost about US$2,000 per refugee to get through China with the help of a broker, but now it costs $10,000 to $15,000, said Kim from the Caleb Mission.

“It wasn't easy before, but the reality is that using the train station or bus stop has become more difficult,” said Ji Chul-ho, head of the Emergency Rescue team at Now Action & Unity for Human rights, a South Korean organization that helps North Korean escapees.

“It is a reality that it is difficult to use most [public transportation] these days,” he said. “As a result, the cost of rescue is higher than in the past, as it is necessary to move using the broker’s vehicle and to more carefully arrange [escape] plans.”

Prior to the advent of facial recognition technology, escapees could at least see police coming and try to avoid them, or hide when they hear sirens, Ji said.

“Now we are exposed to more invisible and unaware fears,” he said. “It is a serious problem.”

Translated by Leejin J. Chung. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

rfa.org





4. S. Korean rights watchdog head urges China to stop repatriation of N.K. defectors


S. Korean rights watchdog head urges China to stop repatriation of N.K. defectors | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Cheong-mo · June 23, 2023

SEOUL, June 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's human rights watchdog chief on Friday urged China not to send North Korean defectors back to their homeland, citing reports that about 2,000 North Koreans held in China face imminent repatriation.

Song Doo-hwan, chairperson of the National Human Rights Commission of Korea, issued a statement saying the human rights of North Koreans can be seriously infringed upon if they are repatriated and that the Chinese government should comply with the United Nations' recommendation.

"Despite the U.N. recommendation to stop the forced repatriation of North Korean defectors in China, there are reports that the forced repatriation of about 2,000 North Korean defectors held in Chinese detention facilities is imminent," Song said in the statement.

He also asked the South Korean government to make every effort to ensure that North Korean defectors in China are not sent to the North against their will and receive appropriate human rights protection.


Song Doo-hwan, chairperson of the National Human Rights Commission of Korea (Yonhap)

ycm@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Cheong-mo · June 23, 2023



5. S. Korea blocks access to N. Korean propaganda channels on YouTube


This is an absolute mistake by the ROK government. It is also a missed opportunity. We need to execute an information campaign and the ROK must maintain the moral high ground by not blocking access to north Korean content and sites. First, this propaganda is not going to influence any significant number of people. No one in the ROK government should fear that these kinds of sites are going to undermine the ROK in any way. In fact blocking the sites is going to make young people want to seek them out more. Blocking these sites actually undermines the legitimacy of the ROK government in a far worse way than north Korean propaganda. If allowed to watch these sites, Koreans in the South will watch these sites and either satirize them or quickly tire of the boring propaganda.


Second, these sites offer the ROK government the chance to "attack" the regime's strategy. Recognize the regime's strategy, understand it, EXPOSE it, and attack it with superior information. By doing so the ROK government can actually inoculate the ROK public against the propaganda. Rather than ban propaganda, take the opportunity to inoculate the people.


S. Korea blocks access to N. Korean propaganda channels on YouTube | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 23, 2023

SEOUL, June 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has blocked local access to three YouTube channels, presumably run by North Korea for propaganda purposes, upon request by Seoul's spy agency, amid concerns over the North's psychological warfare against the South, officials said Friday.

As of 2:00 p.m., the three YouTube channels -- the Sally Parks SongA Channel, Olivia Natasha- YuMi Space DPRK daily and New DPRK -- are not accessible from South Korea, with a message on the platform showing that they are "not available."

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) has requested the Korea Communications Standards Commission, the country's internet censorship body, block access to those channels on concerns that they target the South Korean audience, according to officials at the commission.

"North Korea has been running such YouTube channels as part of its psychological warfare against South Korea. It is our job to respond to the North's psychological campaign," an NIS official said.


This undated screenshot image shows Olivia Natasha- YuMi Space DPRK daily, presumed to be a North Korean propaganda channel on YouTube. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

While the video-streaming platform YouTube has a record of blocking channels run by Uriminzokkiri, the North's propaganda outlet, the latest case involving a request by the spy agency is considered unusual.

The blocked channels, which feature young North Korean women and children as key narrators, were seen as the North's attempt to shift away from its traditional propaganda method to a more engaging style targeting the wider global audience.

The Sally Parks SongA Channel, for instance, features daily vlogs by an 11-year-old girl named Song-a, who introduces herself as an elementary school student in Pyongyang who loves to read the fantasy fiction "Harry Potter" series.

Despite the attempt to casually portray everyday life in the North, observers have raised the view that the YouTube channels are part of a carefully orchestrated propaganda scheme in a country where access to the internet and overseas content is restricted.

The North's propaganda outlets use various social media platforms, including Instagram and Twitter, to propagandize its regime.


S. Korea blocks people's access to N. Korean propaganda channels on YouTube

Youtube

https://youtu.be/ATf0y-3bJoc

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 23, 2023





6. Yoon says S. Korea, Vietnam will strengthen cooperation on N. Korea, trade


(3rd LD) Yoon says S. Korea, Vietnam will strengthen cooperation on N. Korea, trade | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · June 23, 2023

(ATTN: CLARIFIES headline, lead)

By Lee Haye-ah

HANOI, June 23 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol said Friday that South Korea and Vietnam will strengthen cooperation against North Korea's nuclear threat while expanding economic ties to increase bilateral trade.

Yoon, who is on a three-day state visit to Vietnam, made the remark after a summit with Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong at the presidential palace in Hanoi, saying he also agreed to provide the Southeast Asian nation with US$4 billion in soft loans by 2030 as part of official development assistance.

"North Korea's nuclear and missile programs are the most urgent security threat in the region," Yoon said during a joint press briefing with Thuong. "South Korea and Vietnam will strengthen coordination both at the ASEAN level and bilaterally to draw a united response from the international community."

ASEAN stands for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which comprises 10 countries, including Vietnam.


South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) poses for a photo with his Vietnamese counterpart, Vo Van Thuong, during their talks at the presidential palace in Hanoi on June 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

Yoon said the two countries will hold annual foreign ministerial talks and expand defense industry cooperation based on the strengthened political confidence between the sides.

South Korea's Coast Guard and Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security also signed a memorandum of understanding under which South Korea will help strengthen Vietnam's maritime security capabilities.

"South Korea and Vietnam have built a close and mutually beneficial cooperative relationship over the past 30 years," Yoon said. "Last year, we elevated the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Today, President Thuong and I discussed ways to further strengthen our cooperation in a way that is commensurate with the elevated bilateral relationship and to contribute to freedom, peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region."


South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attends a joint press conference with Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong following their talks at the presidential palace in Hanoi on June 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

Under the aim of increasing bilateral trade to US$150 billion by 2030, the two sides agreed to establish an Electronic Origin Data Exchange System, which will allow businesses to submit online proof of origin of export and import items to qualify for preferential duties under the two countries' free trade agreement.

Recognizing the large potential for cooperation on developing Vietnam's abundant rare earth elements, the two sides also agreed to set up a center exclusively handling critical mineral supply chains, and to look further for areas of cooperation in liquefied natural gas development, hydrogen energy production, smart cities and climate change response.

The summit also led to an agreement to further promote exchanges between the two countries' peoples by increasing support for Korean language education in Vietnam and expanding scholarships for Vietnamese students in South Korea.

Yoon said South Korea will continue to expand development assistance to Vietnam by raising the cap on aid provided through the Economic Development Cooperation Fund from $1.5 billion in 2016-2023 to $2 billion in 2024-2030.

Under a new deal, South Korea will also provide an additional $2 billion through the Economic Development Promotion Facility by 2030.


Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong attends a joint press conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol following their talks at the presidential palace in Hanoi on June 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

"Vietnam is a key cooperation state in implementing our Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative for freedom, peace and prosperity," Yoon said. "We will communicate and cooperate more closely with Vietnam, which is a key partner for the development of South Korea-ASEAN relations and South Korea-Mekong cooperation."

The two countries signed 17 agreements and documents on the occasion of the summit, including an action plan for the implementation of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established last year, an agreement allowing the use of international driver's licenses in each other's countries and a memorandum of understanding outlining rules for the issuance of employment permits to Vietnamese workers in South Korea.

Thuong welcomed the agreements and said Vietnam is paying close attention to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

"We are ready to contribute to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said.


South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (2nd from L) and his wife, Kim Keon Hee (L), pose for a photo with Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong (2nd from R) and his wife, Phan Thi Thanh Tam, during their meeting at the presidential palace in Hanoi on June 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · June 23, 2023




7. 'Washington Declaration' a step in right direction for Korea-US alliance: Rep. Bera


This is absolutely the right time and necessary. Every policy and strategy that we can devise against north Korea must be built ​on the rock solid foundation of deterrence.



'Washington Declaration' a step in right direction for Korea-US alliance: Rep. Bera | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 23, 2023

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Yonhap) -- The recently signed Washington Declaration on U.S. extended deterrence is a step in the right direction to address the nuclear threat posed by North Korea, a U.S. lawmaker said Thursday.

Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) also insisted that the bilateral agreement between the allies is a step that will help enhance their joint deterrence while respecting the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

"Do I think the Washington Declaration aligns all concerns now, that do I think it is a step in the right direction? Certain it is," the congressman said when asked about the declaration issued by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden during Yoon's state visit to the U.S. in late April.


Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) is seen speaking during a seminar hosted by the Washington-based Wilson Center and Seoul-based East Asia Foundation in Washington on June 22, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

The U.S. lawmaker was speaking at a seminar jointly hosted by the Wilson Center, a nonpartisan, independent think tank based in Washington, and the East Asia Foundation. a nonprofit organization based in Seoul.

The Washington Declaration came in the wake of a growing call in South Korea to arm itself with its own nuclear weapons against North Korea's evolving nuclear threat.

The U.S. reaffirmed its strong commitment to extended deterrence, which refers to its commitment to help defend South Korea using all its military, including nuclear, capabilities, while agreeing to launch a new Nuclear Consultative Group, which the allies said will allow South Korean input into how or even when the U.S. should consider using its nuclear capabilities against threats facing South Korea.

Seoul, in return, reaffirmed its commitment to the NPT.

Bera noted Seoul understands "the risk of setting a nuclear arms race off in East Asia."

"I think we all share a healthy concern, obviously, of what North Korea is doing, but also the nuclear proliferation that we are seeing in the PRC right now," he told the seminar, referring to China by its official name, the People's Republic of China.

Rep. Choi Hyung-du of South Korea's ruling People Power Party underscored the need to strike a balance between Seoul's need to enhance nuclear deterrence and prevent a potential nuclear arms race.

"We have the NPT regime, and the U.S. interest to maintain nuclear deterrence is fully understood. So we perhaps need to strike a balance by finding an alternative that look similar to what is being offered to NATO where more active assurance of nuclear deterrence is being offered to the European partners," he told the seminar through an interpreter.

He, however, noted that it was still not fully settled that the Washington Declaration was "the possible best conclusion that our two countries could reach."

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 23, 2023


8. Parliamentary foreign affairs committee chairman meets with U.S. House counterpart


Parliamentary foreign affairs committee chairman meets with U.S. House counterpart | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Jae-eun · June 23, 2023

SEOUL, June 23 (Yonhap) -- The chairman of South Korea's parliamentary foreign affairs committee has met with his U.S. House counterpart in Washington, and discussed the alliance between the two countries and other pending issues, the National Assembly said Friday.

Rep. Kim Tae-ho of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) said during the meeting with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) on Thursday that the bilateral alliance was qualitatively strengthened thanks to the "Washington Declaration" adopted at an April summit between President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden.

McCaul said it was very positive that Yoon considers relations with the United States a priority.

Kim also said the two countries should continue to strengthen relations as they share universal values, such as freedom, democracy and human rights, and asked for McCaul's attention to the Inflation Reduction Act and other U.S. legislation feared to negatively affect South Korea, the National Assembly said.

Also attending the meeting were Reps. Lee Jae-jung of the main opposition Democratic Party and Choi Hyung-du of the ruling PPP, and U.S. House Rep. Young Kim.


Rep. Kim Tae-ho (second from left), chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, smiles during a meeting with Congressman Michael McCaul in Washington on June 22, 2023 (local time). (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

fairydust@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Jae-eun · June 23, 2023



9. Gov't to seek real-time information from Japan on Fukushima release



Gov't to seek real-time information from Japan on Fukushima release | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · June 23, 2023

By Kim Han-joo

SEOUL, June 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will seek to get real-time information from Japan on the planned release of contaminated water from the crippled Fukushima plant, a senior official announced Friday.

Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, made the remark during a daily briefing on the Fukushima issue, saying that discussions will be conducted with parties involved, including the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co.

"The most important thing for us is to confirm and monitor whether Tokyo Electric Power can adhere to the discharge standards and ensure that the facilities and equipment are operating effectively," Park said. "Through bilateral discussions with Japan, we will explore ways for release-related information to be shared in real time."

Furthermore, Park said the Japan Atomic Energy Agency recently published the results of the water level analysis for the K4 tanks on its website. These tanks store water treated through the custom purification system known as ALPS before it is discharged into the ocean.

"The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety is currently reviewing the outcome of the analysis," Park added.

In response to heightened public concern, the Seoul government launched a daily press briefing last week to keep the public updated on the release of contaminated water from the plant planned for this summer.


Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, speaks during a daily briefing at the government complex in Seoul on June 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · June 23, 2023


10. ​​N.Korea Reopens Remote Border with China


This is the first report I have seen. Is it premature?

​​N.Korea Reopens Remote Border with China

english.chosun.com

June 23, 2023 13:44

North Korea has reopened the border between remote Musan in North Hamgyong Province and China's Nanping after sealing it at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.


The reopening sparks fears that some 2,000 North Korean defectors who have been detained in China might be repatriated through the border.


Freight trains carrying daily necessities started going into North Korea from China through customs in Nanping and Musan on Tuesday, sources said. Some cargo trains from the North also went to China.


A satellite image from October 2022 shows expansion work at a detention camp in Helong, China. /Courtesy of NK News


The North and China already reopened customs houses in Sinuiju and Dandong across the Apnok River in March.


It is baffling that the remote border in the rugged mountain area is being reopened instead of more accessible crossings between Hyesan and Changbai, Wongjog-ri and Hunchun or Onsong and Tumen.


But a source said, "Nanping is ideal for repatriating defectors to North Korea secretly because of its bad accessibility. You can't see when North Korean defectors are packed in buses before being sent back to the North" from a detention camp in Helong nearby.


Human rights activists here say Helong's detention facility has been expanded significantly. Satellite images show that a new fence and a new building have been built where only a sentry post stood in 2019. That suggests an estimated 2,000 North Korean defectors who were caught in China during lockdown could be repatriated.


But another possibility is that the North simply wants to resume exports of iron ore to China from one of Asia's largest iron strip mines in Musan.


N.Korea-China Trade Grinds to Halt

Seoul Says N.Korea, China Reopen Freight Train Traffic


N.Korean Train Spotted in China

N.Korea's Borders Still Tightly Closed

  • Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com

english.chosun.com



11.  Is North Korea’s propagandist-in-chief also its dictator-in-waiting?


I am really looking forward to reading this book.


Is North Korea’s propagandist-in-chief also its dictator-in-waiting?

The Economist

Jun 22nd 2023

The Sister. By Sung-Yoon Lee. Macmillan; 304 pages; £15. To be published in America by PublicAffairs in September; $30

Communists are fond of vitriol. Karl Marx called Jeremy Bentham, the father of utilitarianism, the “insipid, pedantic, leather-tongued oracle of the ordinary bourgeois intelligence of the 19th century”. Vladimir Lenin said that Georgi Plekhanov, a Russian philosopher, had “set a new record in the noble sport of substituting sophistry for dialectics”, a brutal put-down in the lexicon of Marxist jargon.

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Now there is a new champion of unhinged execration. Whether reviling the “stinky breath emanating from [the] bawling traps” of South Korean missile experts, or telling their president, Yoon Suk-yeol, to “shut his mouth, rather than talking nonsense”, Kim Yo Jong has a barbed tongue befitting the sister of Kim Jong Un, dictator of nominally socialist North Korea. Yet as Sung-Yoon Lee argues in “The Sister”, behind the snark is a woman of immense power: an influence over her nuke-wielding brother and, possibly, his successor.

Ms Kim came to the world’s attention in 2018 during the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, when she became the first member of North Korea’s ruling family to visit the South since the Korean war. Now she is almost as prominent a symbol of North Korean despotism as the brother she often accompanies. As head of the propaganda operation, her sardonic wit has animated North Korea’s invective for a decade. Her willingness to say vile things to wind up America and South Korea positions her, in Mr Lee’s words, as “Even Worse Cop” to Mr Kim’s “Bad Cop”.

The opacity of North Korea means that Mr Lee’s claims are often plausible rather than proven. Advanced in an exuberant prose style, they sometimes outstrip the evidence. Forensic scrutiny of greetings and handwriting in guestbooks smacks of over-interpretation, though readers fond of sartorial analysis may enjoy the detailed record of Ms Kim’s fashion choices.

As for his speculation on whether she might succeed her brother: though a fun parlour game for North Korea-watchers, such predictions should not be taken too seriously. As the author recalls, Fujimoto Kenji—the Kim family’s sushi chef until he fled in 2001—may have been the only person outside North Korea to be on the record as having foreseen Kim Jong Un’s ascent.

Still, marshalling what is known about Ms Kim—a woman of such mystery that the North Korean state has never confirmed that she actually is Mr Kim’s sister—is worthwhile. Mr Lee’s book is not just a profile of a central figure in what is arguably the world’s most brutal dictatorship, but also of her clan. By showing how the family operates, “The Sister” offers insights into the workings of the only hereditary monarchy to style itself as communist; a regime willing to let millions starve while it spends billions on weapons.

Above all, it shows how Ms Kim and her brother learned the art of diplomacy from their father, Kim Jong Il. The book chronicles the senior Kim’s use of kidnapping and missile tests as overtures to negotiations with America and South Korea. His children dutifully copied these tactics at the summits that followed the Olympics. For now, the younger Mr Kim is fixated on military development, but history suggests he will one day want to talk. Those across the table would do well to have studied the family’s approach to bargaining and be adept at decoding its propaganda. ■

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This article appeared in the Culture section of the print edition under the headline "Granddaughter of the revolution"


From the June 24th 2023 edition

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The Economist




De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com



De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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