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Quotes of the Day:
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves."
- Lao Tzu
“When you hate, you generate a reciprocal hate. When individuals hate each other, the harm is finite; but when great groups of nations hate each other, the harm may be infinite and absolute. Do not fall back upon the thought that those whom you hate deserve to be hated. I do not know whether anybody deserves to be hated, but I do know that hatred of those whom we believe to be evil is not what will redeem mankind.”
- Bertrand Russell, Human Society in Ethics and Politics
"Good, better, best. Never let it rest. 'Til your good is better and your better is best."
- St. Jerome
1. Thousands of North Koreans march in anti-US rallies as country marks Korean War anniversary
2. N. Korea warns Korean Peninsula close to 'brink of nuclear war'
3. Defector group sends propaganda leaflets to N. Korea on Korean War anniversary
4. S. Korea approves plan to upgrade K9 howitzers
5. Nuclear envoys of S. Korea, U.S. call for China's 'constructive role' over N. Korea's nuke issue
6. S Korea inching toward long-term THAAD deployment
7. N. Korea caught preparing military parade next month
8. North Korea plagued by worst famine, wary of impact
9. Wagner mutiny may have killed North Korea's dream project
10. Why the full deployment of THAAD in Korea is smart
11. Yoon mulling replacing unification, industry ministers: source
12. Women to serve on Korean submarines from 2024
1. Thousands of North Koreans march in anti-US rallies as country marks Korean War anniversary
Thousands of North Koreans march in anti-US rallies as country marks Korean War anniversary
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · June 26, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Tens of thousands of North Koreans marched in anti-U.S. rallies over the weekend, pledging “merciless” revenge against “U.S. imperialists,” as the country marked the 73rd anniversary of the start of the Korean War, state media said Monday.
More than 120,000 people participated in Sunday’s mass rallies in the nation’s capital, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
While the 1950-53 conflict was triggered by a North Korean surprise attack, the demonstrators mobilized in Pyongyang promoted their government’s version of events and accused the United States of provoking the war and leaving Koreans with “wounds ... that can never be healed.”
Meanwhile in South Korea, a North Korean defector-turned-activist said he flew balloons carrying some 200,000 anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets and COVID-19 medical supplies across the border Sunday night, continuing his yearslong campaigns that have often triggered angry responses from the North.
Photos sent by Park Sang-hak showed a placard with a picture of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and a message that highlighted how his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, was responsible for starting the Korean War. The North has not commented on Park’s latest ballooning stint.
North Korea is extremely sensitive about any outside attempt to undermine Kim’s leadership and weaken his absolute control over the country’s 26 million people.
At the rallies Sunday, North Koreans also expressed pride in Kim’s expanding nuclear weapons and missile programs, insisting their country now has the “strongest absolute weapon to punish the U.S. imperialists and the war deterrence for self-defense which no enemy dare provoke.”
Photos published by the North’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper showed a stadium packed with likely tens of thousands of people in COVID-19 masks, raising their fists in the air and holding signs that read: “Let’s eradicate U.S. imperialist invaders” and “The entire U.S. mainland is within our striking range.”
The rallies came amid heightened tensions in the region, as the pace of North Korean weapons demonstrations and the United States’ joint military exercises with South Korea have both intensified in a cycle of tit-for-tat.
In their latest telephone discussion over North Korea, the U.S. and South Korean nuclear envoys accused Pyongyang of distorting history by repeating old claims that the United States caused the Korean War, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said.
The South Korean official, Kim Gunn, and President Joe Biden’s special representative for North Korea, Sung Kim, also noted how Pyongyang in likewise manner was blaming Washington and its Asian allies for recent tensions triggered by its intensified weapons tests and verbal threats of nuclear conflict. They vowed tighter diplomatic and security cooperation between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo to cope with the threat, the South Korean ministry said.
Since the start of 2022, North Korea has test-fired around 100 missiles of various ranges as Kim attempts to display a dual ability to conduct nuclear strikes on both the U.S. mainland and South Korea. The North is also speeding up efforts to launch its first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit, following a failed first attempt in May.
There are signs that North Korea is planning a huge military parade in Pyongyang where it would likely showcase its new military hardware.
Recent commercial satellite images have shown troop and vehicle movements and the building of structures suggestive of preparations for a parade, likely for the July 27 anniversary of the Korean War armistice agreement.
Lee Sung Joon, a spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a briefing that the South’s military was closely analyzing the North’s presumed parade preparations but did not provide specific details.
At a military parade in February, Kim and his daughter took center stage and his military rolled out what appeared to be a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, which was likely the same system the country flight-tested for the first time in April. If perfected, the weapon would give Kim a more mobile and harder-to-detect weapon to target the continental United States.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · June 26, 2023
2. N. Korea warns Korean Peninsula close to 'brink of nuclear war'
An essential part of the Kim family regime strategy: blackmail diplomacy. I wonder if the statement below is a response to the newly released US National Intelligence Estimate that assesses the regime's most likely course of action is to use nuclear weapons for coercion.
· Imperative: Align assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime:
o Political warfare to subvert the ROK and split the ROK/US Alliance.
o Blackmail diplomacy - the use of threats, increased tensions , and provocations to coerce political and economic concessions.
o Development of advanced warfighting capabilities to support political warfare and blackmail diplomacy and prepare to unify the peninsula by force.
o Understand KJU fears the people more than the ROK/US CFC
N. Korea warns Korean Peninsula close to 'brink of nuclear war' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · June 26, 2023
SEOUL, June 26 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's foreign ministry on Monday accused Seoul and Washington of pushing tensions to "the brink of a nuclear war" akin to the 1950-53 Korean War, saying it will continue to bolster its self-defensive capabilities.
In a research report released by the foreign ministry's Institute for American Studies, North Korea likened the current military tensions in the region to the night before the outbreak of the Korean War as it slammed the United States and South Korea for their "delusional anti-communist military confrontation" and "rhetorical threats."
"Such bellicose moves of the U.S. have pushed the military tensions on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia already plunged into an extremely unstable situation closer to the brink of a nuclear war," the ministry said in the English-language report released by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
The North argued that the U.S. is "resorting to the worrying hostile acts of wantonly encroaching upon the sovereignty and security" of the North more persistently this year than ever before and has reached a threshold that can no longer be tolerated.
It then warned that a war on the peninsula would "rapidly expand into a world war and a thermonuclear war unprecedented in the world," causing "the most catastrophic and irreversible consequences" to peace and security in the region and the rest of the world.
Pyongyang will continue to further accelerate its efforts to bolster "its self-defensive capabilities for safeguarding its sovereignty" unless the U.S. withdraws its "anachronistic hostile policy" and persistent military threat against the North, the report said.
North Korea fires a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile from the Sunan area in Pyongyang, in this file photo released by the Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 19, 2022, a day after the launch. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
julesyi@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · June 26, 2023
3. Defector group sends propaganda leaflets to N. Korea on Korean War anniversary
Rather than attack Kim Jong Un with insults I recommend that escapees send in massive amounts of copies of the north Korean constitution to illustrate the contradictions of the regime that cannot be explained away.
These excerpts of the Constitution should be highlighted with questions of why doesn't the regime ensure the Korean people have these rights protected?
Article 65.
Citizens enjoy equal rights in all spheres of State and public activity.
Article 66.
All citizens who have reached the age of 17 have the right to elect and to be elected, irrespective of sex, race, occupation, length of residence, property status, education, party affiliation, political views or religious belief. Citizens serving in the armed forces also have the right to elect and to be elected. A person who has been disenfranchised by a Court decision and a person legally certified insane do not have the right to elect or to be elected.
Article 67.
Citizens are guaranteed freedom of speech, the press, assembly, demonstration and association. The State shall guarantee the conditions for the free activities of democratic political parties and social organizations.
Article 68.
Citizens have freedom of religious belief. This right is granted through the approval of the construction of religious buildings and the holding of religious ceremonies. Religion must not be used as a pretext for drawing in foreign forces or for harming the State or social order.
Article 69.
Citizens are entitled to submit complaints and petitions. The State shall investigate and deal with complaints and petitions impartially as stipulated by law.
Article 70.
Citizens have the right to work. All able-bodied citizens may choose occupations in accordance with their wishes and skills and are provided with stable jobs and working conditions. Citizens work according to their abilities and are paid in accordance with the quantity and quality of their work.
Article 71.
Citizens have the right to relaxation. This right is ensured by the establishment of working hours, and the provision of holidays, paid leave, accommodation at health resorts and holiday homes at State expense and by a growing network of cultural facilities.
Article 72.
Citizens are entitled to free medical care, and all persons who are no longer able to work because of old age, illness or physical disability, and seniors and minors who have no means of support are all entitled to material assistance. This right is ensured by free medical care, an expanding network of hospitals, sanatoria and other medical institutions, State social insurance and other social security systems.
Article 73.
Citizens have the right to education. This right is ensured by an advanced educational system and by the educational measures enacted by the State for the benefit of the people.
Article 74.
Citizens are free to engage in scientific, literary and artistic pursuits. The State shall grant benefits to inventors and innovators. Copyrights, inventions and patents shall be protected by law.
Article 75.
Citizens have freedom of residence and travel.
Article 76.
Revolutionary fighters, the families of revolutionary and patriotic martyrs, the families of soldiers of the People’s Army and soldiers disabled on duty enjoy the special protection of the State and society.
Article 77.
Women are accorded equal social status and rights with men. The State shall afford special protection to mothers and children by providing maternity leave, reduced working hours for mothers with several children, a wide network of maternity hospitals, creches and kindergartens, and other measures. The State shall provide all conditions for women to play their full roles in society.
Article 78.
Marriage and the family shall be protected by the State. The State pays great attention to consolidating the family, the basic unit of social life.
Article 79.
Citizens are guaranteed inviolability of the person and the home, and privacy of correspondence. No citizen can be placed under control or arrest nor can a citizen’s home be searched without a legal warrant.
Article 80.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea shall grant the right of asylum to foreign nationals persecuted for struggling for peace and democracy, national independence and socialism or for the freedom of scientific and cultural pursuits.
Article 81.
Citizens shall firmly safeguard the political and ideological unity and solidarity of the people. Citizens shall cherish their organization and collective and work devotedly for the good of society and the people.
Article 82.
Citizens shall strictly observe the laws of the State and the socialist standards of life and defend their honour and dignity as citizens of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Article 83.
Work is the noble duty and honour of a citizen. Citizens shall willingly and conscientiously participate in work and strictly observe labour discipline and working hours.
Article 84.
Citizens shall take good care of the property of the State and social, cooperative organizations, combat all forms of misappropriation and waste and manage the nation’s economy diligently as the masters. The property of the State and social, cooperative organizations is inviolable.
Article 85.
Citizens shall constantly increase their revolutionary vigilance and devotedly fight for the security of the State.
Article 86.
National defence is the supreme duty and honour of citizens. Citizens shall defend the country and serve in the armed forces as required by law.
Defector group sends propaganda leaflets to N. Korea on Korean War anniversary | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 26, 2023
SEOUL, June 26 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean defectors' group said Monday it has sent anti-Pyongyang leaflets and medicine by balloons to the North, as they marked the 73rd anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War.
Park Sang-hak, head of the Fighters for a Free North Korea (FFNK), told Yonhap News Agency that the organization sent 20 balloons carrying some 200,000 leaflets, 10,000 face masks, Tylenol pills and booklets from Gimpo, west of Seoul, at 10 p.m. on Sunday.
Sunday marked the 73rd anniversary of the Korean War that broke out on June 25, 1950, when tank-led North Korean troops invaded South Korea. The United States and 20 other allied countries fought on the side of South Korea under the U.N. flag.
According to Park, the giant balloons carried placards denouncing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that read "My grandfather (Kim Il-sung) attacked the South 73 years ago, when should I?" referring to the founder of the recalcitrant regime.
The FFNK previously sent balloons carrying similar goods across the border last month and in October last year although such acts are banned in South Korea under a law that was legislated during the previous administration to help reduce tensions in the border regions.
In 2020, Seoul's unification ministry revoked the operation permit for the FFNK, citing concerns over the safety of border town residents and tension on the Korean peninsula.
The group filed a complaint protesting the decision, in which the Supreme Court ordered a lower court to review the legality of the revocation in April.
This photo, provided by the Fighters for a Free North Korea on June 26, 2023, shows a placard condemning North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attached to one of the balloons the anti-Pyongyang group sent to North Korea the previous day. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · June 26, 2023
4. S. Korea approves plan to upgrade K9 howitzers
S. Korea approves plan to upgrade K9 howitzers | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · June 26, 2023
SEOUL, June 26 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's defense authorities on Monday endorsed a plan to upgrade the homegrown K9 self-propelled howitzer to bolster its strike capabilities, the state arms procurement agency said.
The Defense Project Promotion Committee gave the nod to the 2.36 trillion-won (US$1.81 billion) basic plan for the second upgrade project of the K9 scheduled to run through 2027, according to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA).
The "Block-I" upgrade project seeks to automate the ammunition loading process of the K9's main gun to reinforce its swift strike capabilities and enhance combat efficiency, it said.
DAPA added that the automation is expected to reduce the number of personnel required to operate the self-propelled howitzer and improve the crew members' safety.
The K9 has served as a key artillery asset for the Army and the Marine Corps since it was first delivered to the military in 1999.
This file photo, taken Aug. 4, 2022, shows a K9 self-propelled howitzer firing a shell during an exercise at a training field in Paju, 37 kilometers north of Seoul. (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · June 26, 2023
5. Nuclear envoys of S. Korea, U.S. call for China's 'constructive role' over N. Korea's nuke issue
The only thing China wants at the moment is to sustain the status quo so there is no war or regime collapse on the peninsula. But the status quo includes creating dilemmas of the ROK/US alliance.
Nuclear envoys of S. Korea, U.S. call for China's 'constructive role' over N. Korea's nuke issue | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · June 26, 2023
SEOUL, June 26 (Yonhap) -- The top nuclear envoys of South Korea and the United States held phone talks Monday to discuss North Korea's denuclearization and the outcome of Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent visit to China, Seoul's foreign ministry said.
Kim Gunn, South Korea's special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, and his U.S. counterpart, Sung Kim, agreed to cooperate closely in communicating with Beijing over the North's nuclear issue, according to the ministry.
The two envoys agreed the recent U.S.-China meeting served as an "important opportunity to reaffirm" that North Korea's denuclearization was in the common interests among the international community and vowed to continue urging China to play a "constructive role" in the nuclear issue.
During his visit to China earlier this month, Blinken met Chinese President Xi Jinping and agreed to work toward stabilizing their ties so that it "does not veer into conflict."
The nuclear envoys discussed ways to step up cooperation to block North Korea's nuclear and missile program financing through cryptocurrency theft and overseas workers.
The two sides also criticized North Korea's attempt to "distort history" by claiming the 1950-53 Korean War was "a war of aggression provoked by the U.S.," warning such propaganda moves will only backfire.
Earlier in the day, North Korea accused Seoul and Washington of pushing current tensions on the peninsula to "the brink of a nuclear war," likening it to the Korean War.
In this file photo, South Korea's chief nuclear negotiator, Kim Gunn (R), and his U.S. counterpart, Sung Kim, pose for a photo prior to their talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons at the foreign ministry in Seoul on April 6, 2023. (Yonhap)
julesyi@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · June 26, 2023
6. S Korea inching toward long-term THAAD deployment
Again, will China initiate economic warfare against the ROK as it did in 2017?
S Korea inching toward long-term THAAD deployment
US missile defense system’s presence in S Korea has riled China in the past as a potential spying threat to its nuclear deterrent
asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · June 23, 2023
South Korea is edging closer to the long-term deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system, a controversial move that threatens to stoke tensions with China and North Korea.
This month, Jane’s reported that South Korea’s Ministry of Environment (MOE) had completed an environmental impact assessment (EIA) of the US Army’s THAAD temporarily deployed at Seongju, 215 kilometers southeast of Seoul.
“As the MOE and the MND have completed the environmental impact assessment of Seongju base in cooperation, we will closely cooperate with the US to faithfully reflect the consultation opinions and proceed with the project,” said the MND in a statement cited by Janes.
THAAD’s deployment in South Korea generated considerable controversy in 2017, with then-president Moon Jae-in accusing the MND of failing to report the system’s arrival in the country. There were also domestic complaints of a lack of an EIA assessment and backlash from locals fearing high electromagnetic wave (EMW) exposure.
Meanwhile, China complained that the system could neutralize its nuclear deterrent and responded with a series of measures to punish Seoul. Tourism dropped by about 40% and many Korean consumer goods and cultural products were boycotted inside China
Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance notes that each THAAD battery includes a launcher, interceptors, radar and fire control unit. The source mentions that the highly-mobile truck-mounted launcher can carry eight hit-to-kill interceptor missiles with 200-kilometer ranges.
It also says that the system’s Army Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance () radar can search, track and discriminate objects up to 1,000 kilometers away and provide tracking data to the interceptor missiles, with the fire control unit integrating all system elements.
The Institute of Security and Development policy notes that one of THAAD’s main characteristics is its transportability, which makes it easy to reposition the system.
A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor (R) is seen in Seongju, South Korea, April 26, 2017. Photo: Lee Jong-hyeon / News1
The source mentions that feature gives THAAD flexibility to respond to changing threats, unlike the Aegis and Patriot missile systems, both of which have limited mobility.
It also says that THAAD can intercept both exo- and endo-atmospheric threats at a regional level, unlike Aegis, which can only intercept exo-atmospheric targets, and Patriot, which can only hit endo-atmospheric threats at point defense ranges.
However, THAAD also has its limitations. Asia Times noted in December 2022 that North Korea has been practicing highly-lofted trajectory missile launches to increase the chance of penetrating missile defenses such as THAAD.
Such launches result in a high terminal velocity for ballistic missiles, undermining the effectiveness of missile defenses. However, that launch significantly reduces the missile’s range, as most of its fuel is spent on reaching a high angle instead of covering great distances.
In such an attack, missile defense radars lose track of the target when the latter reaches its apex, then regain track of the hostile missile too late for interceptors to destroy. Also, as interceptor missiles fly against gravity, it is harder to catch up, correct course and hit the constantly-accelerating target at the right angle.
Adam Taylor notes in a 2017 Washington Post article that THAAD may be of limited use against North Korea as it could not take down the latter’s numerous short-range tactical ballistic missiles (SRBM) and artillery rounds that do not reach such high altitudes.
Instead, Taylor says that THAAD’s radar capabilities may be the reason behind its 2017 deployment to South Korea. He says that THAAD’s sophisticated radar could be used to track China’s missile systems, potentially giving the US an edge over China in a future conflict.
Li Bin notes in a 2016 Carnegie Endowment for Regional Peace article that THAAD’s AN/TPY-2 radar can undermine China’s nuclear deterrent by collecting essential data on Chinese nuclear warheads that the US could not acquire from other sources.
Bin mentions a missile warhead is usually cone-shaped and has a very smooth surface on the front and sides, reducing its frontal radar cross-section.
However, he says that’s not the case for the rear of missile warheads, with uneven surfaces giving that part a much larger radar cross-section.
Bin notes that the THAAD system to be deployed in South Korea could be in an exceptional position to view the back of Chinese nuclear warheads. He mentions two scenarios where THAAD can be used to gather intelligence on China’s missile arsenal.
First, Bin says that THAAD can gather intelligence on China’s missiles when the latter conducts flight tests in northeast China to develop missile defense countermeasures. He notes that intelligence gleaned by THAAD could be used to differentiate between decoys and actual warheads.
Second, Bin says that THAAD could track incoming Chinese ballistic missiles fired from Central China at a very early stage and relay their trajectory to the US national missile defense system. He mentions that would give the US more time and potential attempts to intercept an incoming Chinese nuclear warhead.
Such scenarios, Bin says, may force China to change the target points of its missile tests in the East China Sea, sparking threat perceptions in South Korea, which neither party desires. Apart from the East China Sea, China may use the South China Sea as an alternative launch area for missile tests and secondary strikes.
Asia Times reported in November 2022 that China had fielded its new JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with a 10,000-kilometer range on its Type 094 nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), giving it the capability to hit the US from protected bastions in the South China Sea.
China’s JL-3 nuclear missile has a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, putting the US within closer range. Photo: Twitter / Handout / SCMP
Previously, China’s SSBNs with the older JL-2 missile with a range of just 7,200 kilometers needed to travel into the waters west of Hawaii to launch their SLBMs, passing chokepoints such as the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel, making them vulnerable to US and allied anti-submarine forces.
In addition, Asia Times reported in April 2023 that China is now maintaining round-the-clock SSBN patrols in the South China Sea, ensuring a second strike capability against the US.
JL-3-armed Type 094 SSBNs are now operating from Hainan to the South China Sea, showing China’s rapid improvement in logistics, command and control, and weapons to maintain a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.
That development also indicates that China is deploying its SSBNs similar to established nuclear powers such as the US, UK, France and Russia.
Related
asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · June 23, 2023
7. N. Korea caught preparing military parade next month
Caught? Are parades sanctioned? (note the sarcasm meant to accompany that question).
N. Korea caught preparing military parade next month
donga.com
Posted June. 26, 2023 07:56,
Updated June. 26, 2023 07:56
N. Korea caught preparing military parade next month. June. 26, 2023 07:56. by Na-Ri Shin journari@donga.com.
A series of evidence has been found that North Korea is preparing to hold a military parade and relaunch a reconnaissance satellite on the occasion of July 27, which the regime claims is the Day of Victory – the day when the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed in 1953.
U.S.-based station Radio Free Asia reported on Saturday that satellite images taken the day earlier show a newly installed fence of 100 meters in width and length each and logistics around Kim Il-sung Square. Previously, tents were found set up in the square in preparations for the 75th anniversary of the Korean People's Army on Feb. 8. However, they were only a third of the fence newly set up in the square, it reported, quoting satellite imaging experts as saying that works are aimed at hiding preparations for a military parade or related structures.
It is expected that the likely military parade will be upgraded to be of a larger scale to cover up a failed reconnaissance satellite launched on May 31. Also, Pyongyang seemingly feels under pressure to expedite the relaunch of a satellite and celebrate the 70th anniversary of their Day of Victory as it may need to strengthen internal bonds at a time when residents voice increasing complaints amid the worsening food crisis and due to other issues.
The South Korean military keeps a close eye on Pyongyang's possible attempts to launch another reconnaissance satellite prior to the Day of Victory as it has been found that maintenance works are being done to improve asphalt paving in Sohae Satellite Launching Station located in Dongchang Ri, Cheolsan Gun, North Pyongyang Province. In the labor party's 8th plenary meeting presided over by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un starting from June 16 for three days, he ordered that the causes of the failed launch should be thoroughly analyzed to learn a lesson and successfully launch a satellite for military reconnaissance in the near future. Related moves have since then been captured.
“If it can be analyzed technologically why a stage-two propellant failed to be fired in the launch on May 31, the regime will likely carry out an engine firing test to try another launch before the Day of Victory," said a military source. It is said that putting together a projectile and a satellite in a mobile assembly building in the station does not take long as it has long been practiced skillfully. The United States also pays close attention to the launch station in Dongchang Ri with its Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint, a reconnaissance aircraft, deployed up to the military demarcation line (MDL) last Friday to collect signs of missile firing across North Korea.
한국어
donga.com
8. North Korea plagued by worst famine, wary of impact
Regime collapse will occur when the party can no longer govern from the center (Pyongyang) and the loss of coherency and support of the military. The rise in crime by soldiers against civilians may be an indicator of the loss of coherency of the military, breakdowns of the chain of control as well as the inability of the regime to fully support military units. We need to observe the growing indicators of internal instability that may threaten the regime and we need to ensure our contingency plans are in order.
Also, because of the COVID crackdown the regime has had a severe impact on market activity (particularly the closing of the border with China). It is the growth of some 400 markets following the great famine of 1994-1996 and the Arduous March that has provided the population a measure of resilience and a safety valve and relief mechanism due to the family of the public distribution system. In addition, it was the Sunshine policy of 1997-2007 that helped bail out the regime with funds. But that cannot happen now both because the South KOrea leadership is opposed to it and sanctions prohibit those kinds of funds transfers. Conditions could be growing more dire now than they were in the 1990s.
I am not predicting collapse because the regime and the people have demonstrated great resilience. But if there is collapse it will be catastrophic and unlike anything we have seen in recent decades. Will we be prepared for it?
North Korea plagued by worst famine, wary of impact
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, second from left, checks crops in a rice paddy in North Hwanghae Province after the September 2020 floods. Korea Times file
Violent crimes committed by soldiers against civilians increase amid deaths due to worsening starvation, says defector
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Dozens of North Korean soldiers were embroiled recently in a violent dispute with health authorities in the reclusive state, according to a defector.
Citing a source, Lee Ae-ran, an expert in North Korean cuisine, who became the first defector to earn a doctoral degree in the South, said that the deadly clash occurred as the soldiers took collective action against North Korean authorities, which is a rare occurrence in the totalitarian state.
According to Lee, the soldiers arrived in Pyongyang early to prepare for a military parade scheduled for July 27 to mark the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement that halted fighting in the Korean War.
"Some of them had the flu and were separated from other soldiers for social distancing purposes. After they recovered, the soldiers were ordered to go back to their units against their will," she told The Korea Times in a telephone interview, Friday. "All of the soldiers who participate in the military parade are supposed to get special gifts from Kim Jong-un. The soldiers were upset when they were kicked out and headed directly to the health authorities to confront their decision to send them back to their military units."
Security personnel guarding the health authorities deterred the rebellious soldiers triggering a clash, which led to some soldiers getting killed.
"In North Korea, challenging the authorities is an unthinkable act," Lee said.
"Collective action, committed by soldiers in particular, is deemed as a serious threat to the regime, because soldiers are the ones who are allowed to be armed. The North Korean regime took the case very seriously because of that."
Lee said she recently heard numerous accounts of violence involving soldiers, including cases of sexual assault on civilians and theft, adding that North Korean residents have been increasingly anxious of such troops, who locals refer to as bandits. She added that what is happening there reminds her of a sequence of ominous events that had occurred in the North before the great famine in the 1990s.
Among other things, Lee said a food shortage was a critical factor that pushed the soldiers to become violent and rebellious.
"When people are starving, isn't it natural for them to become unruly and harbor resentment toward the government?" she asked.
Her testimony about the violent confrontation involving the soldiers comes as North Korea suffers from an extreme food shortage.
Tim Peters, a Seoul-based American humanitarian activist, said North Korea has been going through severe food shortages since COVID-19.
"My contacts in North Korea confirmed the food situation as very dire, and has been so through the years of the pandemic," he told The Korea Times.
North Korea has gone through chronic crop shortages for decades.
But this time, activists who are familiar with the North said that the food situation is more severe than in the past. Some said North Korea is experiencing the worst famine since its foundation in 1948.
Peters said COVID-19 dealt a big blow to the impoverished North as an extended border lockdown, which has been in place since May 2020, blocked trade with China.
On top of the pandemic, he added that North Korea's systemic inefficiencies due to its top-down management of the agricultural sector and the development of weapons of mass destruction are also among other reasons causing the worsening food situation in the North.
He said poor people are suffering the most.
"Food shortages to the most vulnerable in the North have been exacerbated by rising food prices that further puts vital food out of the reach of those who need it desperately," he said.
North Korea holds a large gathering in Pyongyang on Sunday to commemorate the 73rd anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. According to North Korea's state media, some 120,000 people participated in the event, which was held as a rise in starvation grips the North. Yonhap
Deaths due to starvation are increasing in the North and even in its capital, according to media reports. Previously, Pyongyang was thought to be a relatively affluent part of the country.
In a report to the U.N. Human Rights Council, Elizabeth Salmon, the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in North Korea, said that about 40 percent of North Koreans are malnourished because of food shortages.
Seo Jae-pyeong, president of the Seoul-based non-profit group, Association for North Korean defectors, said that the food situation in the North is even worse than the Arduous March period in the mid-1990s when a great famine killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Despite the dire food situation, Seo said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is still in control.
"There has been no sign of social unrest whatsoever, because the society is tightly controlled by the Kim regime," he said. "Even though people died of starvation, their neighbors or families kept their mouths shut about the cause of their deaths because they are not allowed to speak to others about it. Those who breached this rule are sent to prison camps."
The North Korean regime fabricated the causes of their deaths and told residents that they died because of fever, pneumonia or other diseases, according to Seo.
The great famine of the mid-1990s created drastic social changes in the North, such as the introduction of certain capitalist elements. Markets popped up across the totalitarian country as hungry residents became determined to make a living by selling products smuggled in from China.
It remains to be seen how the latest famine will affect North Korean society. But Lee said that the famine might lead to social unrest or political chaos in the North.
"These days, people are different. North Koreans are no longer obedient to the regime," she said.
Seo, however, remained cautious about discussing repercussions caused by the famine, such as a groundswell of protest against the North Korean leader.
"This is not the first time North Korea was hit hard by food shortages," he said.
The famine occurred at a time when rumors about the North Korean leader's health are rampant.
Based on an estimate, the National Intelligence Service said that Kim is believed to weigh around 140 kilograms.
He is also believed to be suffering from a cardiac-related disease and diabetes. In addition, Kim is rumored to have a kidney problem. At the same time, his children are still too young to ascend to power.
If Kim was to be unable to rule as the nation battles the famine, few know how a possible leadership vacuum could impact the North.
Citizens walk on a street in front of Pyongyang Railway Station in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 21. AP-Yonhap
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
9. Wagner mutiny may have killed North Korea's dream project
Putin will not likely have time for Kim. Kim was hoping for greater Russian support.
Wagner mutiny may have killed North Korea's dream project
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, welcomes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for talks in Vladivostok, Russia, in this, April 25, 2019 photo. The Wagner Group's recent rebellion may have killed North Korea's dream project in Russia, an expert said Monday. AP-Yonhap
Expert says Pyongyang's hopes of taking advantage of Moscow ties now look dim
By Jung Min-ho
When Russia's military forces took control of Luhansk and Donetsk, two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, North Korea seized an opportunity, becoming only the second state after Syria to recognize their independence in a move to back Moscow.
Then followed the news that the North was offering 100,000 soldiers to help stabilize the regions and that it was supplying munitions to the Kremlin through the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary group with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
All this suggests that North Korea was keen to take advantage of the war. First, by selling Russia weapons during the conflict and then by taking part in its reconstruction. That plan may now have been seriously ― perhaps fatally ― disrupted after Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, initiated an open military rebellion, an analyst told The Korea Times, Monday.
"It is very possible that North Korea made several deals with the group. The cancellations of the deals would cause immediate damage to the regime," said Cho Han-bum, an expert on Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank.
But to North Korea, more serious damage from Prigozhin's one-day revolt that began Friday night has been inflicted on its long-term diplomatic strategy regarding Russia, its critical ally that can offer far more than money, he noted.
Wagner Group mercenaries pull out of the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to base, in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday. Reuters-Yonhap
"North Korea's best-case scenario was probably Russia achieving a partial win in the war, which would allow it to strengthen its ties with Russia through reconstruction projects that might take years to finish. In exchange, North Korea could gain food, energy, weapons technology and Russia's diplomatic support," Cho said. "But the Wagner mutiny has spoiled those efforts."
Many experts believe the insurrection has revealed cracks in Putin's hold on power and could have a significant impact on the ongoing war. Cho agrees. He reckons that the Wagner Group has lost Putin's trust and will eventually be disbanded and punished thus weakening Russia's chances of victory in the war in the process.
"The Wagner Group has tens of thousands of mercenaries in Ukraine, where it has played a role in the war. Even with their support, Russia is badly struggling. If Moscow decides to get rid of them, which it will, it will be its loss. In addition, Russia will need more military resources to safely manage all the repercussions of the mutiny. All this may well lead Putin to seek a ceasefire," he said. "And that's not the scenario the North was banking on."
Apparently shocked by the uprising of Putin's close confidant, Pyongyang on Sunday offered its full support to the Russian government.
Speaking at a meeting with the Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora, Vice Foreign Minister Im Chon-il expressed his "firm belief that the recent armed rebellion in Russia would be successfully put down" and said it will "strongly support any option and decision by the Russian leadership," according to North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
10. Why the full deployment of THAAD in Korea is smart
Why the full deployment of THAAD in Korea is smart
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
By Deauwand Myers
So many things. Let us first discuss the proposed deployment of American THAAD missiles in Korea. Lockheed Martin, the defense contractor who manufactures the missile defense system for America and many other countries, is not too shy to brag about its system, describing it in its white papers and online in breathy accolades: "The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) is a highly effective, combat-proven defense against short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missile threats. THAAD is the only U.S. system designed to intercept targets outside and inside the atmosphere." Statistically, the system has a nearly 100 percent success rate in lethal interception of ballistic missiles.
The Korea Times and other news organizations wonder if the deployment of such a system to operational status would bring ire from North Korea and China. My answer is twofold, "Yes." And "who cares?"
Let's then discuss the Chinese Communist Party. It is, for all intents and purposes, a fascist, criminal enterprise masquerading as a legitimate government. President Xi is the first Chinese president to bend the Chinese Parliament so much to his will that he now can ostensibly be president for life. I must say, his political acumen at home is brutal, ruthless and effective. He even had his name added to China's so-called constitution as Xi being the "core of the party." He is serving an unprecedented third term. He has direct control over all new security agencies. He modernized the military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), at an exceedingly brisk rate, especially for a country with so much bureaucratic red tape and governmental graft. He silenced his perceived political enemies by accusing them of graft and having them jailed or disappeared with very little dissent.
(This last one, only having yes men and sycophants at the governing table, is always the downfall of undemocratic nations. Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union and now Russia, to name a few, are proof of why not curating a diverse group of experts to help make major decisions is just hubris and shortsighted).
However, this president-turned-dictator is unsophisticated in geopolitics. Building illegal, militarized man-made islands in the South China Sea and claiming all of it for China is outlandish. This belief that China can dictate how other countries conduct their military affairs upon sovereign nations is just puerile, childish and self-defeating. President Xi's obfuscation about the coronavirus infuriated everyone, and most probably led to millions of more hospitalizations and deaths around the world. Had China been more upfront in the information they had on the virus; their own citizens may have suffered less. China should have just used the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines, which are way more effective than China's own vaccine. Stealing of military and intellectual property by Chinese intelligence is also rampant. The bullying of Taiwan into joining China when we saw what they did to Hong Kong, again, outlandish.
China protests any military engagement with the United States, Australia, France, Taiwan and of course, Korea. Why? Both Korea and Japan are protected by the United States nuclear umbrella, which trumps good missile defense systems any day by a mile.
Further, Korea's defense needs are very different from China's. North Korea has a burgeoning missile system capable of doing serious damage to Seoul, one of the largest cities in the world, and a capital at that. On the other hand, China is an ally of North Korea and supports North Korea through illicit trade and defense aid. The CCP has no worries about a surprise missile attack coming from North Korea and the brutal Kim Regime.
Now, of course, China has important cultural and economic ties to Korea. However, trade cannot overrule sound defenses for the Korean nation from an unpredictable, violent and impoverished nation with nuclear warheads.
North Korea and China whine every time military collaboration goes on with democratic countries. Both countries complain when military exercises take place between say Korea, Japan and the United States, or when new submarine development is happening in Australia.
Just as with trade, China and North Korea must abide by international norms of trade and military exchange. The problem is they do not, not even a little bit.
No serious country should take the complaints of these two pariah nations as anything other than bluster and blunder. North Korea cannot and would not survive another war. With Japan, Korea, America and others clearly ready to militarily and diplomatically engage should China try to take Taiwan by force, the outcome could be similar to what Russia's Putin is witnessing now, loss, bloodshed, no diplomatic friends and shockingly, an attempted coup.
Korea should and will install THAAD. It is the smart move to make.
Deauwand Myers (deauwand@hotmail.com) holds a master's degree in English literature and literary theory, and is an English professor outside of Seoul.
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
11. Yoon mulling replacing unification, industry ministers: source
The new unification policy is supposed to be released either on August 15th or in September in conjunction with the UN General Assembly meeting.
We just met with Kim Young Ho and the advisory committee two weeks ago. I was impressed. They are very serious about unification planning.
Kim Young-ho, a professor at Sungshin Women's University and the chief of an advisory committee designed to lay out a new vision on unification, is being considered as the most likely successor to Unification Minister Kwon Young-se.
Kwon, a longtime politician, reportedly voiced his willingness to return to the ruling party in a bid to run for next year's general elections.
Yoon mulling replacing unification, industry ministers: source
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a speech at a special exhibition marking the 70th anniversary of the Korea-U.S. alliance at the National Museum of Korean Contemporary History in central Seoul, Sunday. Yonhap
President Yoon Suk Yeol is weighing replacing the unification and industry ministers in a small-scale Cabinet reshuffle, a source at the presidential office said Monday.
The source told Yonhap News Agency that Yoon is mulling replacing the chiefs of the unification and industry ministries, but uncertainty still remains due to unspecified "variables."
Kim Young-ho, a professor at Sungshin Women's University and the chief of an advisory committee designed to lay out a new vision on unification, is being considered as the most likely successor to Unification Minister Kwon Young-se.
Kwon, a longtime politician, reportedly voiced his willingness to return to the ruling party in a bid to run for next year's general elections.
Bang Moon-kyu, minister of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, is reportedly deemed as a potential successor to Industry Minister Lee Chang-yang.
Yoon has been also weighing a sweeping reshuffle in vice ministers to give a boost to key state projects in his administration's second year in office. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · June 26, 2023
12. Women to serve on Korean submarines from 2024
Women to serve on Korean submarines from 2024
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · June 26, 2023
South Korea's Navy will deploy women officers aboard 3,000-ton submarines for the first time starting next year, breaking the longstanding glass ceiling within the country's military after 31 years since the Navy commissioned its first-ever Jang Bogo submarine in 1993.
Seven non-commissioned female officers were selected earlier this month out of a pool of 22 applicants to serve on submarines, the Navy announced Monday.
The Navy had initially planned to select four non-commissioned female officers as submarine crew members. But, due to the significant number of applicants, the Navy decided to increase the number of selections.
Last month, the Navy also chose two commissioned female officers for submarine missions from three candidates. The officers are both graduates of the Naval Academy and currently hold the rank of captain. Notably, one of the officers underwent midshipman training at the United States Naval Academy after being selected for a commissioned education course.
The selected nine female naval officers will undergo training at the 909th Training and Education Squadron under the South Korean Navy's Submarine Force Command until early next year. Upon successfully completing training and the necessary qualifications, they will officially begin their roles as submarine crew members starting next year.
The South Korean Navy initiated a review process in 2014 to consider the inclusion of female naval officers in submarine missions.
However, the working conditions inside the submarines deployed at that time posed challenges and were not suitable for accommodating female officers. Even male sailors faced various inconveniences as a result of the compact size and limited internal space of the 1200-ton and 1800-ton submarines that were deployed at the time.
The Navy subsequently had a shift in policy and decided to integrate female sailors on submarines in July 2022. This decision was mainly prompted by the commissioning of the Dosan Ahn Chang-ho, a 3000-ton homegrown submarine, in August 2021.
The new 3,000-ton submarines have been specifically designed with segregated living quarters to accommodate female officers, ensuring their inclusion and providing suitable living conditions on board.
The selected female naval officers will serve on two 3,000-ton submarines, the Dosan An Chang-ho and An Mu.
In a statement issued in July 2022, the Navy said that the decision to allow women to serve on submarines was driven by the need to address manpower shortages resulting from reduced military resources.
The integration also aims to provide equal opportunities to capable women soldiers. The Navy's permission grants South Korean female military officers the opportunity to serve in all combat capacities, with the exception of some specific special operations missions.
South Korea has become the 14th country in the world to permit women to serve on submarines. The other 13 countries include Argentina, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom.
By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · June 26, 2023
13.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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