Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

And now that you don't have to be perfect, you can be good.

- John Steinbeck “East of Eden”

"... We believe in free speech and free press. In fact, we are in thorough accord with the principle of democracy, equal opportunity, sound economic policies, free intercourse with the nations of the world, making conditions of life of the entire people most favorable for unlimited development.

We believe in liberty of action in all matters, provided such actions or utterances do not interfere with the rights of other people or conflict with the laws and interests of the nation.

Let us pledge our solemn word to carry out these cardinal points to the best of our ability, as long as there is life remaining within us."

AIMS AND ASPIRATIONS OF THE KOREANS [CONCLUDING STATEMENT OF THE FIRST KOREAN CONGRESS]

- Drafted by Yu Il-han (柳一韓; 유일한), April 14, 15,16 (Philadelphia, 1919)

"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile."

- Roger Staubach

1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

2. No survivors found after plane that flew over DC and led to fighter jet scramble crashes in Virginia

3. Sonic boom heard across D.C. region caused by military flight, Md. officials say

4. Florida Businessman Says ‘Entire Family’ Was on Crashed Plane Behind D.C. Chaos

5. Navy SEAL training commander speaks out after scathing report on ‘shattering’ candidate death

6. Marines release specs for high-tech next-gen combat utility uniform

7. Exclusive: Ukraine has cultivated sabotage agents inside Russia and is giving them drones to stage attacks, sources say

8. Chinese Next-Generation Psychological Warfare

9. Fleet’s material condition keeps getting worse, new INSURV report says

10. Marines Will Restructure Infantry Battalions by September

11. Special Operations News Update - June 5, 2023 | SOF News

12. Army Seeks Bomb-Carrying Drones Like Ukraine’s

13. We Argued About Admitting Ukraine to NATO in 2008. Now We Agree on It.

14. Taiwan’s Imported Wolf Warriors – OpEd

15. Blinken says no Ukraine cease-fire without Russia’s withdrawal

16. World's spy chiefs meet in secret conclave in Singapore

17. US defense secretary discusses upgrading ties with India to counter China

18. United States-Japan-Australia Trilateral Defense Ministers' Meeting (TDMM) 2023 Joint Statement

19. Secretary Austin Concludes India Visit

20. Pentagon draws ire of lawmakers over war crimes evidence sharing

21. An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine

22. EXPLAINED: Russia Claims to Have Repelled ‘Large-Scale Ukrainian Offensive’, Rumors of Counteroffensive Swirl

23. Ditching USD is an escape from sanctions and aggression

24. BRICS Raging Against the Dollar Is an Exercise in Futility

25. Did Shangri-La give birth to a new Quad?

26. US in an ill-conceived turn to neo-mercantilism

27. A Strait Too Far: How a Deliberate Campaigning Approach in the Pacific Can Make Beijing Think Twice

28. Li Shangfu: War with US would be unbearable disaster, says China defence minister

1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Maps/graphics/citations: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4-2023

Key Takeaways

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs).
The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids.
The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership.
Russian forces again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles on June 4 making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in southwestern Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
Ukrainian and Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and Marinka.
Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) submitted a draft government decree that will no longer require an individual’s presence at an enlistment office for military registration.
Russian officials continue to use rest and rehabilitation schemes to deport Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 4, 2023

Jun 4, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros,

and Fredrick W. Kagan

June 4, 2023, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:30pm ET on June 4. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement. Geolocated footage published on June 4 shows LSR and RDK personnel advancing towards Novaya Tavolzhanka (3.5km from the Ukrainian border).[1] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed that there was fighting within Novaya Tavolzhanka, although the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Western Military District and the Russian Border Guard Service struck a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group near the settlement, forcing them to withdraw.[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that a sabotage and reconnaissance group of 20 personnel entered Novaya Tavolzhanka without armored vehicles.[3] Wall Street Journal Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Yarsoslav Trofimov reported that the pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters remain in Novaya Tavolzhanka as of 1700 (Moscow Standard Time).[4]

Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs). The LSR and RDK addressed a video to Gladkov purporting to show RDK and LSR fighters with two Russian POWs whom they said they captured near Novaya Tavolzhanka. The RDK and LSR demanded that Gladkov arrive at the temple in Novaya Tavolzhanka by 1700 (Moscow Standard Time) to negotiate for the release of the POWs.[5] Gladkov stated that he was ready to meet with the RDK and LSR fighters at the Shebekino checkpoint to negotiate the exchange of the POWs.[6] Gladkov later reportedly refused to meet with the RDK and LSR fighters because he believed that the Russian POWs were already dead.[7] The RDK and LSR released a subsequent video showing themselves with 12 Russian POWs, criticizing Gladkov for lacking courage, and stating that they would send the POWs to Ukraine.[8]

The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids. The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the MoD and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids. ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have disproportionately responded to the limited raids into Russian territory in an effort to assuage growing Russian anxiety about the war in Ukraine while also supporting ongoing information operations that aim to present the war as existential to Russia.[9] Russian responses have primarily centered on informational effects, and there is no indication that the Russian leadership has set a wider policy for preventing further limited raids into Russian border oblasts. It is also not clear if Russian authorities are orchestrating the evacuation response to this activity. An RDK fighter claimed on June 4 that Belgorod Oblast authorities have not organized the announced evacuation measures in the Shebekino area and that Russian citizens have largely fled of their own accord, leaving many settlements in a semi-abandoned state.[10] Gladkov claimed that 4,000 residents from the area are currently staying at temporary accommodation centers in connection with evacuation efforts, however.[11] Ukrainian Advisor to the Internal Affairs Minister Anton Herashchenko stated on June 4 that the RDK and LSR activity has prompted Russian leaders to divert significant forces to stop border incursions, although ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have done so.

The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize the MoD on June 3 and 4, specifically calling out the lack of response from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Colonel General Alexander Lapin, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valeriy Gerasimov.[12] Prigozhin offered to negotiate the release of POWs held by the RDK and LSR if Russian authorities failed to do so, and responded to criticism of his offer by sarcastically stating that Russia has a problem with people who have “balls.”[13] Other ultranationalist milbloggers responded to the latest raid by criticizing Gladkov for being willing to negotiate with the RDK and LSR, and Russian authorities for failing to consistently inform the public about the situation in Belgorod Oblast.[14] A prominent milblogger used the raid in Belgorod Oblast to criticize the MoD for not funding Belgorod territorial defense volunteer formations and for not considering the volunteers as actual combatants.[15] Former Russian officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin argued that the Kremlin cannot do anything about the situation in Belgorod Oblast without engaging in a costly diversion of resources that would likely end in an attritional operation reminiscent of Bakhmut.[16]

Russian forces again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles on June 4, marking the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched five Shahed-136/131 drones from Bryansk Oblast and six Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from six strategic Tu-95 bombers in the Caspian Sea in the early morning of June 4.[17] Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Shahed drones and four cruise missiles. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that two Russian missiles struck an active Ukrainian airfield near Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast.[18] Ihnat added that two Shahed drones struck unspecified infrastructure in Sumy Oblast.[19] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all drones and missiles that targeted Kyiv.[20]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in southwestern Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that the Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city. Prigozhin claimed that some unspecified reports suggest that Ukrainian forces established observation posts in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.[21] Prigozhin recommended that the Russian forces in Bakhmut take action if these reports are true. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar and other Ukrainian officials have continuously reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut since May 20, when Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces seized the entirety of the city.[22]

Key Takeaways

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs).
The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids.
The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership.
Russian forces again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles on June 4 making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in southwestern Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
Ukrainian and Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and Marinka.
Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) submitted a draft government decree that will no longer require an individual’s presence at an enlistment office for military registration.
Russian officials continue to use rest and rehabilitation schemes to deport Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
Activities in Russian-occupied areas

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces reportedly conducted an unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force northeast of Kharkiv City on June 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group conducted an unsuccessful attempt to penetrate through Ukrainian defenses near Zelene (34km northeast of Kharkiv City.[23]

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and are reinforcing their troops along the Luhansk-Kharkiv frontline.[24] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces are attempting to restart their offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske and Kuzemivka (16km northwest of Svatove), Makiivka (23km northwest of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (13km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (27km south of Kreminna).[25] Syrskyi added that Russian forces are reinforcing their positions with “Storm Z” assault units that are staffed with convicts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces deployed a group of 500 convicts to reinforce an unspecified element operating in Kharkiv Oblast, and that the Ukrainian forces injured almost 100 of these convicts with artillery fire.[26]

Ukrainian and Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupyansk-Svatove line on June 4. Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced 400 meters in an unspecified area in the Svatove direction and liberated a significant area of the Ivanivskyi forest.[27] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces crossed the Oskil River and seized Novomlynsk (21km northeast of Kupyansk) but noted the absence of photo or video evidence for this claimed advance.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Novoselivske, while the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Berestove (20km northwest of Svatove), Andriivka (14km west of Svatove), and Novoselivske.[29]

Russian forces continued offensive operations south of Kreminna on June 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Bilohorivka and Spirne.[30] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in combat along the R-66 highway near Kreminna.[31]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut on June 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Ivanivske and Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut).[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Ivanivske direction and that Ukrainian forces conducted assault operations near Zaliznyanske (9km northwest of Bakhmut).[33] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Wagner forces continue to withdraw from Bakhmut and that regular Russian airborne (VDV) forces are replacing them.[34] Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported that the loss ratios of losses of Russian forces to Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut was 7.5 : 1.[35]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on June 4. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Opytne (3km southwest of Avdiivka) and Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka).[36] Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces entered Vodyane, while some Russian milbloggers refuted this claim.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations near Avdiivka.[38]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Marinka on June 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled all Russian ground attacks near Marinka.[39] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Chechen “Akhmat” Special Forces (Spetsnaz) continue offensive operations in the Marinka direction.[40] A Russian milblogger claimed that Akhmat units and elements of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Army Corps) with artillery support from the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) conducted assault operations in Marinka while Ukrainian forces attempted to counterattack in Marinka.[41]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in southern Donetsk Oblast on June 4. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Pavlivka (2km southwest of Vuhledar) and Mykilske (3km southeast of Vuhledar).[42] Another milblogger characterized the Ukrainian attacks near Pavlivka and Mykilske as unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations.[43]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4.[44] Geolocated footage posted on June 4 shows that mechanized Ukrainian forces made limited advances northeast of Rivnopil.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked in the direction of Pryyutne (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Makariivka (within 4km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and captured Novodarivka (14km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Neskuchne (2km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[46] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces broke through the first line of Russian defenses and advanced 500 meters to three kilometers in this area.[47] There is no visual evidence for these reports as of this writing. The language of these reports suggests that Russian forces also lost their positions in Levadne (18km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), although it is unclear if this is a recent development or occurred on an earlier date. Footage posted on June 2 shows artillery elements of a Ukrainian artillery brigade conducting fire missions against Russian positions near Staromaiorske, about 7km south and 7km southeast of Neskuchne and Rivnopil, respectively.[48] Some milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted limited counterattacks near Mala Tokmachka (28km southeast of Hulyaipole), and that Russian forces conducted airstrikes against attacking Ukrainian forces near Hulyaipole.[49] Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian “Vostok” volunteer battalion and elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) successfully defended against further Ukrainian advances.[50] Russian sources largely claimed that the Ukrainian localized counterattacks were reconnaissance-in-force operations.[51]

Ukrainian forces continued to target frontline and rear areas in southern Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian missiles targeting Berdyansk and Melitopol on June 3.[52] Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces struck additional areas in Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4: near Melitopol, northeast of Melitopol near Chernihivka, and near the frontline near Verbove and Polohy.[53] Crimean Occupation Head Sergey Aksyonov claimed that Russian air defenses and electronic warfare systems destroyed or disabled nine Ukrainian UAVs targeting Dzhankoi, Crimea on June 3.[54]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Russian MoD submitted a draft government decree that will no longer require an individual’s presence at an enlistment office for military registration. The draft decree states that Russian officials will be able to register citizens for military service “without the personal appearance of citizens in the military [recruitment office] on the basis of information contained in the state information resource, other state information systems and information resources.”[55] Russian citizens will reportedly receive notifications of registration and deregistration in their personal accounts on the Russian State Services Portal.[56] The Russian State Duma adopted a bill on Aprill 11 approving the creation of a digital unified register of Russian citizens eligible for military service.[57] ISW assessed that the Kremlin advocated for the digital register in order to use tools of digital authoritarianism to improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses and crack down on Russian draft dodgers, and this new draft government decree is likely a part of this effort.[58]

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian servicemembers continue to desert their positions in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 4 that roughly 40 Russian servicemembers near Svatove, Luhansk Oblast left their combat positions and deserted.[59] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces dispatched two helicopters and a Rosgvardia unit to look for the deserters.[60]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian officials continue to use rest and rehabilitation schemes to deport Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia. Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official Rodion Miroshnik stated on June 4 that the “Helping Ours” volunteer organization has sent 103 people, 67 children and 36 mothers, from occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to the Klyazma sanatorium in Moscow Oblast.[61] Miroshnik stated that “Helping Ours” reached a new agreement with the Russian Federal Medical and Biological Agency to send another 162 people, primarily children ages five to 13, to the Klyazma sanatorium by the end of 2023.[62] A Russian news aggregator reported on June 3 that children’s health camps in Bryansk Oblast will receive 750 children from Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast and that 90 children from the settlement will arrive in Bryansk Oblast in June.[63]

Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine is extraordinarily unlikely).

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine.

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

2. No survivors found after plane that flew over DC and led to fighter jet scramble crashes in Virginia

What a strange incident. We heard the sonic boom yesterday.

No survivors found after plane that flew over DC and led to fighter jet scramble crashes in Virginia

AP · by MICHAEL BALSAMO and ASHLEY THOMAS · June 4, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — A wayward and unresponsive business plane that flew over the nation’s capital Sunday afternoon caused the military to scramble a fighter jet before the plane crashed in Virginia, officials said. The fighter jet caused a loud sonic boom that was heard across the capital region.

Hours later, police said rescuers had reached the site of the plane crash in a rural part of the Shenandoah Valley and that no survivors were found.

The Federal Aviation Administration says the Cessna Citation took off from Elizabethtown, Tennessee, on Sunday and was headed for Long Island’s MacArthur Airport. Inexplicably, the plane turned around over New York’s Long Island and flew a straight path down over D.C. before it crashed over mountainous terrain near Montebello, Virginia, around 3:30 p.m.

It was not immediately clear why the plane was nonresponsive, why it crashed or how many people were on board. The plane flew directly over the nation’s capital, though it was technically flying above some of the most heavily restricted airspace in the nation.

A U.S. official confirmed to The Associated Press that the military jet had scrambled to respond to the small plane, which wasn’t responding to radio transmissions and later crashed. The official was not authorized to publicly discuss details of the military operation and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Flight tracking sites showed the jet suffered a rapid spiraling descent, dropping at one point at a rate of more than 30,000 feet per minute before crashing in the St. Mary’s Wilderness.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command later said in a statement that the F-16 was authorized to travel at supersonic speeds, which caused a sonic boom that was heard in Washington and parts of Virginia and Maryland.

“During this event, the NORAD aircraft also used flares – which may have been visible to the public – in an attempt to draw attention from the pilot,” the statement said. “Flares are employed with highest regard for safety of the intercepted aircraft and people on the ground. Flares burn out quickly and completely and there is no danger to the people on the ground when dispensed.”

Virginia State Police said officers were notified of the potential crash shortly before 4 p.m. and rescuers reached the crash site by foot around four hours later. No survivors were found, police said.

The plane that crashed was registered to Encore Motors of Melbourne Inc, which is based in Florida. John Rumpel, who runs the company, told The New York Times that his daughter, 2-year-old granddaughter, her nanny and the pilot were aboard the plane. They were returning to their home in East Hampton, on Long Island, after visiting his house in North Carolina, he said.

Rumpel, a pilot, told the newspaper he didn’t have much information from authorities but hoped his family didn’t suffer and suggested the plane could’ve lost pressurization.

“I don’t think they’ve found the wreckage yet,” Rumpel told the newspaper. “It descended at 20,000 feet a minute, and nobody could survive a crash from that speed.”

A woman who identified herself as Barbara Rumpel, listed as the president of the company, said she had no comment Sunday when reached by The Associated Press.

The episode brought back memories of the 1999 crash of a Learjet that lost cabin pressure and flew aimlessly across the country with professional golfer Payne Stewart aboard. The jet crashed in a South Dakota pasture and six people died.

President Joe Biden was playing golf at Joint Base Andrews around the time the fighter jet took off. Anthony Guglielmi, spokesperson for the U.S. Secret Service, said the incident had no impact on the president’s movements Sunday. Biden was playing golf at the Maryland military base with his brother in the afternoon.

A White House official said the president had been briefed on the crash and that the sound of the scrambling aircraft was faint at Joint Base Andrews.

___

Associated Press writers Chris Megerian and Zeke Miller in Washington and Christopher Weber in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

AP · by MICHAEL BALSAMO and ASHLEY THOMAS · June 4, 2023

3. Sonic boom heard across D.C. region caused by military flight, Md. officials say

Again, strange:

Data from flight tracking service Flightradar24 shows a plane matching the Citation’s description and flight path reaching Long Island before turning around. The plane flew directly over Washington before the data ends near Staunton, Va.

Sonic boom heard across D.C. region caused by military flight, Md. officials say

The Washington Post · by Katie Shepherd · June 4, 2023

An authorized Defense Department plane caused a sonic boom heard across the D.C. region Sunday afternoon, officials in Maryland said.

The sonic boom was related to an incident involving a Cessna that crashed in Virginia, three people with knowledge of the situation said. Two of them said the Cessna was unresponsive when hailed by authorities.

The loud, explosive sound startled residents across the District, Maryland and Virginia around 3:10 p.m. For nearly an hour, it was unclear what had made the noise. On social media, people from areas as far-flung as Springfield, Va., and Bowie, Md., reported hearing the boom and feeling the accompanying vibrations that shook houses and left people searching for the source of the sound.

Officials from Annapolis and Bowie both said on Twitter that it was caused by a Defense Department flight.

“The loud boom that was heard across the DMV area was caused by an authorized DOD flight. This flight caused a sonic boom. That is all the information available at this time,” according to a statement by the Annapolis Office of Emergency Management.

Officials in Bowie said they “confirmed that the loud boom heard in Bowie was a sonic boom from a plane out of Joint Base Andrews.”

A media representative for Joint Base Andrews could not say what caused the boom but suggested the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) would know. NORAD did not immediately respond to calls and an email.

The Federal Aviation Administration said in a statement that a Cessna Citation jet crashed near Montebello, Va., around 3:30 p.m. Sunday.

The aircraft had taken off from Elizabethton Municipal Airport in Elizabethton, Tenn., and was bound for Long Island MacArthur Airport in New York, the FAA said.

The FAA said the National Transportation Safety Board would lead the investigation into the crash. The board did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Data from flight tracking service Flightradar24 shows a plane matching the Citation’s description and flight path reaching Long Island before turning around. The plane flew directly over Washington before the data ends near Staunton, Va.

The Washington Post · by Katie Shepherd · June 4, 2023

4. Florida Businessman Says ‘Entire Family’ Was on Crashed Plane Behind D.C. Chaos

Seems like a strange comment. His wife was not on the plane, only his daughter and grandchild (plus a nanny). Do they have no other family members? What about their son-in-law (assuming they have one).

I can hear the conspiracy theories taking shape already based on this information:

Both Barbara and her husband, prominent business people in Florida, have donated to a medley of Republican candidates for federal office over the past few years, including hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to former President Donald Trump and his political organization, according to Federal Election Commission records viewed by The Daily Beast.

The couple donated a combined $250,000 to the Trump Victory PAC in 2020 alone. Then, just two years later, Barbara made a number of donations to controversial candidates, including $2,900 to Georgia Senate hopeful Herschel Walker and $500 to Florida congressional candidate Laura Loomer, a far-right influencer known for making anti-Muslim statements.

Barbara also has direct ties to the Trump Administration. She was listed as a co-chair for a firearm-rights campaign organization supporting the former president’s 2016 run, called the “Second Amendment Coalition for Trump-Pence.”

A longtime National Rifle Committee member, Barbara has also been on the NRA’s Women’s Leadership Council since 2002 and spent more than six years as an executive committee member, according to her LinkedIn profile.

The couple committed their commercial real estate portfolio to a trust benefitting the organization, according to a statement they published on the NRA website.

“We want to leave a legacy that will help preserve this country as we know it and as it is meant to be,” Barbara wrote at the time.

Florida Businessman Says ‘Entire Family’ Was on Crashed Plane Behind D.C. Chaos

TRAGEDY AT 10,000 FEET

John Rumpel, a prominent Florida businessman, told The Washington Post his “entire family” was on the plane when it crashed—including his daughter, a grandchild and her nanny.

Erik Uebelacker

Breaking News Intern

Updated Jun. 05, 2023 3:26AM ET / Published Jun. 04, 2023 9:52PM ET

The Daily Beast · June 5, 2023

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty

A Florida businessman and prominent political donor identified himself as the owner of a Cessna passenger aircraft that sparked panic as it flew into restricted U.S. airspace over Washington, D.C. Sunday—before crashing into the Virginia wilderness, according to a report.

The aircraft, which authorities said was piloted by a person who lost consciousness, prompted an aerial chase with Pentagon jets, which caused a sonic boom heard across the D.C. area, officials said.

According to federal aviation records, the plane was registered to Encore Motors of Melbourne, a Florida-based company owned by John and Barbara Rumpel, though neither were on board at the time of the crash.

In a brief interview with The Washington Post, John Rumpel confirmed he was the owner of Encore and said his “entire family” was on the plane at the time, including his daughter, a grandchild and her nanny.

“We know nothing about the crash,” he said. “We are talking to the FAA now. … I’ve got to keep the line clear.”

When reached by The Daily Beast, Barbara Rumpel, who is listed as the president of Encore Motors in Melbourne, declined to comment.

Both Barbara and her husband, prominent business people in Florida, have donated to a medley of Republican candidates for federal office over the past few years, including hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to former President Donald Trump and his political organization, according to Federal Election Commission records viewed by The Daily Beast.

The couple donated a combined $250,000 to the Trump Victory PAC in 2020 alone. Then, just two years later, Barbara made a number of donations to controversial candidates, including $2,900 to Georgia Senate hopeful Herschel Walker and $500 to Florida congressional candidate Laura Loomer, a far-right influencer known for making anti-Muslim statements.

Barbara also has direct ties to the Trump Administration. She was listed as a co-chair for a firearm-rights campaign organization supporting the former president’s 2016 run, called the “Second Amendment Coalition for Trump-Pence.”

A longtime National Rifle Committee member, Barbara has also been on the NRA’s Women’s Leadership Council since 2002 and spent more than six years as an executive committee member, according to her LinkedIn profile.

The couple committed their commercial real estate portfolio to a trust benefitting the organization, according to a statement they published on the NRA website.

“We want to leave a legacy that will help preserve this country as we know it and as it is meant to be,” Barbara wrote at the time.

The Sunday flight began when the aircraft, a Cessna Citation, took off on a flight from Tennessee to Long Island, New York, the FAA said in a statement to The Daily Beast.

The flight failed to attract attention until it entered into restricted airspace near the U.S. Capitol, prompting a rapid response from the Pentagon. At least one F-16 was scrambled and quickly went supersonic, causing the boom that shocked residents across the region.

“The civilian aircraft was intercepted at approximately 3:20 p.m.,” the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said shortly after the incident.

One of the Pentagon pilots saw the operator of the Cessna had “passed out,” a U.S. official told ABC News—a narrative which was later confirmed by both the U.S. Capitol Police and NORAD.

Shortly after being intercepted, the plane crashed in the Virginia wilderness.

It remains unclear what caused the pilot’s unconsciousness, though both the FAA and NTSB are investigating the crash.

It was unclear if there were any survivors.

The Daily Beast · June 5, 2023

5. Navy SEAL training commander speaks out after scathing report on ‘shattering’ candidate death

A tragic event that hopefully we will learn from. But I think the Captain makes a very important point about leadership and the next generation.

[but] I’ve reinforced this throughout my entire time as as commanding officer: It’s on us as leaders to adjust to the next generation,” Geary said. “It’s not enough to say ‘You have to be like us and we expect you to perform like we did.’

This important comment goes way beyond this tragic incident and SEAL training. I think it can be traced to many of the issues in the military today, from recruiting to diversity, etc. We need to adapt to the upcoming generations. Those who pine for the good old days or blame the young generation for our ills should take a hard look in the mirror and ask if they are still suited for leadership in today's military. I think the young generation(s) are just as tough as we thought we were in our younger days. But they have different world views that are not necessarily in synch with the fantasy of our good old days.

Excerpts:

Now, in the wake of a highly critical Navy investigation into Mullen’s death, the SEAL officer faces scrutiny from the Navy, Congress and the press, and plans to retire from the service without adding a star to his uniform.

“You’re grieving the death of a dream every day,” said Geary, who is speaking out for the first time since Mullen’s tragic death. “I know by coming forward with the press on this one, I’m committing a cultural faux pas that will put me out of graces with my community, but I have to … I am laying down my career for my cadre of candidates to be their voice and defend them because no one else is.”

....

“Capt. Geary maintained a view that the high attrition was caused, among other reasons, by the current generation having less mental resilience, or being less tough,” said the report, which was unsealed last week.

The career SEAL officer vehemently denied the allegation to The Post, stating on multiple occasions that he would never say such a thing and that such an opinion would be the antithesis of his personal leadership philosophy.

“One of the things that was misstated in that report was this notion that I somehow blamed the next generation for being mentally weak, which is what resulted in the attrition,” Geary said. “Those were not my words. I never said that. Those closest to me in my command would say I never said that.”

“That’s flippant and irresponsible and just not true.”

To the contrary, Geary said he knew the next generation of SEALs were tough, giving multiple anecdotes throughout his two-hour interview with The Post and criticizing those who say young people are weak.

“It’s very easy to say, ‘Well, damn the next generation’ and make fun of them … [but] I’ve reinforced this throughout my entire time as as commanding officer: It’s on us as leaders to adjust to the next generation,” Geary said. “It’s not enough to say ‘You have to be like us and we expect you to perform like we did.’

Navy SEAL training commander speaks out after scathing report on ‘shattering’ candidate death

New York Post · by Caitlin Doornbos · June 4, 2023

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Decorated Navy SEAL killed in free-fall parachute training accident

WASHINGTON – Navy Capt. Brad Geary was on the path to becoming an admiral on Feb. 4, 2022, when he got “earth-shattering” news: one of his Navy SEAL candidates was found unresponsive hours after completing the training program’s “Hell Week.”

Seaman Kyle Mullen, 24, had just pushed himself through the most physically intense period in the SEALs’ famously arduous boot camp when fellow candidates discovered him in his room, blue in the face.

Medics would later pronounce him dead at a hospital.

“I’ll never be able to take that weight off my shoulders,” Geary said in an exclusive interview with The Post this week. “I’ve lost many teammates in my career, unfortunately. Too many. But this was the first one under my command.”

Three months before Mullen’s death, Geary had traveled to Washington, DC to accept the Navy’s top honor for “inspirational leadership,” the Vice Adm. James Bond Stockdale Award.

Now, in the wake of a highly critical Navy investigation into Mullen’s death, the SEAL officer faces scrutiny from the Navy, Congress and the press, and plans to retire from the service without adding a star to his uniform.

“You’re grieving the death of a dream every day,” said Geary, who is speaking out for the first time since Mullen’s tragic death. “I know by coming forward with the press on this one, I’m committing a cultural faux pas that will put me out of graces with my community, but I have to … I am laying down my career for my cadre of candidates to be their voice and defend them because no one else is.”

Tough enough

An autopsy report revealed Mullen died of a combination of pneumonia and swimming-induced pulmonary edema – a condition common in SEAL candidates, who experience fluid buildup in the lungs after prolonged exposure to frigid waters.

But Mullen had powered through in the middle of winter, enduring a five-and-a-half day stretch in which SEAL candidates are allowed just four hours of sleep each night, run a total of more than 200 miles, swim in the frigid ocean and complete other physical training for more than 20 hours per day.

Navy investigators swarmed Geary’s command following Mullen’s death.

The captain says he laid his concerns about a rising number of SEAL candidates dropping out of the training program he took over in 2020 and his efforts to conduct a study to identify the cause.

Kyle Mullen, 24, was found unresponsive after completing Navy SEAL’s “Hell Week.”

Facebook/Regina Knaup Mullen

Consulting with experts and academics, Geary found a multitude of reasons for rising dropout rates – including the coronavirus pandemic and “generational shifts” – but he said his concerns were ignored when brought to Navy leadership.

“Nobody really wanted to hear our message until after Kyle Mullen died,” he told The Post. “We beat that drum incessantly and it really did not resonate.”

Geary also made a number of changes to the program to prevent attrition, such as mandating six hours of sleep before Hell Week and eliminating heavy rucksacks from runs in early training phases.

Fall from grace

But the investigation placed the heaviest blame on Geary and his staff, alleging the latter abused the Special Forces hopefuls while the captain looked the other way.

It also claimed that his leadership fostered an environment where seeking medical attention was discouraged, young SEAL trainers grew extreme in their practices and the voices of retired SEALs brought in as advisers were silenced.

Geary denied the allegations, saying he was “disappointed” with the results of the investigation, defending his team against accusations of wrongdoing.

After Mullen’s death, Navy Capt. Brad Geary was depicted as a barbarian, out-of-touch leader whose cadre of trainers pushed SEAL candidates too hard.

Chief of Naval Operations

“Our cadre deserved to be trusted and the American people deserve to know that they can trust the SEAL community, and it’s frustrating to me that [the report] unjustly undermines that trust,” he said.

His attorney, Jason Wareham, criticized the Navy investigation, alleging it was mishandled from the start and “perpetuates the Navy’s narrative to wrongfully discredit my client through twisted quotes, misconstructions and mishandling of evidence that has existed since the start.”

For example, the Army coroner failed to test Mullen for certain performance-enhancing drugs, despite knowing some, including human growth hormone and testosterone, were found with syringes in his car after he died, according to the report.

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday presents Cmdr. Bradley Geary the USO Special Salute Award during the USO’s 38th Annual Awards Dinner on March 10, 2020.

Chief of Naval Operations

Geary received an official letter of reprimand after the Navy investigation, but was allowed to continue his service in the military.

However, the letter is likely a career-killer, as his name has been sullied throughout the course of the investigation.

“I genuinely love everyone that is entrusted to my care as a leader, and as the commanding officer of [the SEAL training program,] I loved my candidates,” Geary told The Post. “I loved Kyle Mullen; I grieved his loss and still do. I will carry that weight with me forever.”

A mother’s pain

But Geary’s fate is just fine with the late sailor’s mother, Regina Mullen.

If anything, she told The Post she’d like to see Geary, who still serves in the Navy but no longer leads the training program, fired for what she claimed was his role in her son’s death.

“I said, ‘You are a murderer. You murdered him,'” she said of her conversation with Geary in the wake of her son’s death, she told The Post. “I think he feels bad, but everybody feels bad when you’re caught.”

Regina Mullen went on to suggest that no one should go through the elite special forces training course.

“You are a murderer. You murdered him,” Kyle Mullen’s mother Regina told Geary.

Rachel Wisniewski

A registered nurse, she said her son would not have died if he had been given proper medical care when showing signs of respiratory distress.

“If you’re sick, you’re weak – that’s what they were like promoting and cultivating,” she said. “I don’t even know that you need the SEALs [in the military.]”

From the beginning, Regina wanted accountability for the command and worried the Navy would float the drugs found in Kyle’s car as the cause of his death.

She said this week that she told the service to write that there was no evidence that PEDs caused her son’s death in a press release, a request that was honored.

A photo of Kyle Mullen as a baby in his mother’s photo album.

Rachel Wisniewski

At the very least, Regina Mullen said, the command’s medics who conducted the mandatory post-Hell Week medical check on her son should have caught his debilitating condition and been ordered to monitor him.

“They should have never let that medical team go home,” she told The Post. “They saw my son swallowing, spitting up blood – it was visible by the eye … That’s disgusting. It was abuse of power.”

After her son’s death, Regina Mullen worked with Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), who wrote legislation aimed at improving medical care and oversight of high-stress military training programs.

“When I first met Regina, she made it clear that no other parent should ever have to endure her pain,” Smith said in a statement last week after he and Regina met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). “She has made incredible strides in her goal to ensure these young men are as healthy as possible and have access to a world-class medical monitoring capability.”

Regina Mullen wears her son’s fatigues.

Rachel Wisniewski

Independent investigation

The bereaved mother is now pushing Congress to direct the Pentagon’s internal watchdog to investigate the case after advocating for the command investigation that alleged Geary and his team were at fault in Kyle’s death.

She’s also spoken to media outlets calling for accountability for the officers.

“The safety of the men, that’s their primary responsibility,” she told The Post on Friday.

Marines release specs for high-tech next-gen combat utility uniform

marinecorpstimes.com · by Hope Hodge Seck · June 2, 2023

The Marines took a major step forward in acquiring a combat utility uniform that builds in fire resistance, minimizes visibility and adds comfort, releasing a highly anticipated solicitation in May that lists the must-have features and requirements for the new garments.

The solicitation for the next-gen Marine Corps combat utility uniform, or MCCUU, was published May 12, giving interested companies a month to submit a proposal and fabric sample for a uniform that will keep the Corps’ distinctive Marine camouflage pattern, but incorporate new tech and better fabric.

The Corps’ interest in a new utility uniform was first made public in 2021, when it signaled interest in garments that would incorporate the durability of the standard uniform with the fire protection of the flame-resistant organizational gear, or FROG, uniform.

The move would create substantial cost savings, Military.com reported at the time. The service currently pays $89 for the regular utility uniform and $184 for the flame-resistant organizational gear.

Camouflage combat utility uniforms OK’d for Pentagon Marines

Marines already have been milling around the food court and strolling the hallways of the Pentagon in their cammies.

At the time, Marine Corps Systems Command officials said it wanted to pay no more than $105.60 per next-gen Marine combat utility uniform. The newly released solicitation limits uniform costs to $22 per yard, or about $110 apiece.

According to the solicitation, the flame-resistant properties of the next-gen uniform will include either no-melt, no-drip technology ― which protect the wearer from injury when the fabric is exposed to flame ― or self-extinguishing capabilities, which mean the fabric will stop burning once a fire source is removed.

The original flame-resistant organizational gear uniform, procured following a 2006 urgent need statement amid a preponderance of combat-related burn injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan, includes a shirt, trousers and balaclava face guard. The current version features no-melt, no-drip fabric and can withstand temperatures of up to 230 degrees Fahrenheit.

Separately, the new uniform will build in an increasingly valuable tactical feature: signature management. The Marines’ patented MARPAT camouflage, highly effective for concealment under the naked eye, emits a glow under short-wave infrared optics.

The U.S. military has been working since at least 2012 to develop materials, from special fabrics to dyes, that neutralize this compromising effect.

Today, multispectral camouflage technology, like the “camoshield” developed by SSZ Camouflage and Schoeller Textil AG, aims to reduce or eliminate the glow effect by bringing down the worn uniform’s surface temperature.

The Marine Corps remains secretive about its specifications and requirements for signature reduction. The solicitation states that interested contractors must complete a nondisclosure agreement even to receive the spec list.

However, it’s clear this does represent an all-new feature for Marine cammies.

“The current MCCUU offers no [flame-resistant] capability or signature management beyond the visual spectrum,” Marine Corps Systems Command spokeswoman Morgan Blackstock told Marine Corps Times in an email.

Beyond the added technology features, the uniform will feature improvements in “breathability, comfort and durability,” according to solicitation documents.

It will remain lightweight at no more than 7.5 ounces per yard, and be required to air-dry in 85 minutes or less. It must pass high air permeability thresholds to ensure the fabric breathes, and have built in moisture management or water-repellent fabric technologies that will make it like cutting-edge athletic gear.

In light of past Marine complaints about uniform trousers that ripped along the seams, the next-gen uniforms must also pass a stringent battery of requirements ensuring they can withstand tearing under pressure. Manufacturers also must prove that the fabric won’t pill or degrade after repeated wash cycles.

Like the current utility uniform, the next-gen combat utility uniform also will be treated with insect repellent, offering bite protection of up to 96%.

Marine Corps Systems Command officials declined to provide information about when Marines would have the chance to evaluate new uniform items or the timeline for fielding, saying these things were predecisional. The solicitation provides some answers, however.

Up to six purchase orders will be awarded to buy fabric featuring various flame-resistant qualities, documents state. Systems Command will then down-select, buying up to 700 yards apiece from selected vendors to assemble uniforms for test and evaluation.

“The experimental MCCUUs shall be tested for several months in a Field User Evaluation (FUE) in a hot/humid/wet environment in early 2024 to establish suitability and acceptability in the operational environment with concurrent lab testing,” documents state.

A final decision about which uniform to acquire will be made sometime in fiscal year 2025. No information has been released yet about fielding dates.

Ultimately, according to the solicitation, the Marine Corps plans to buy via the Defense Logistics Agency, about 270,000 next-gen blouses and trousers ― roughly 1,350,000 yards of fabric.

About Hope Hodge Seck

Hope Hodge Seck is an award-winning investigative and enterprise reporter covering the U.S. military and national defense. The former managing editor of Military.com, her work has also appeared in the Washington Post, Politico Magazine, USA Today and Popular Mechanics.

7. Exclusive: Ukraine has cultivated sabotage agents inside Russia and is giving them drones to stage attacks, sources say

Unconventional warfare: "activities to enable an insurgency or resistance to coerce,disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power..."

Not to claim "whataboutism" but the Russians have been doing this in Ukraine and other former Soviet states for some time.

Exclusive: Ukraine has cultivated sabotage agents inside Russia and is giving them drones to stage attacks, sources say | CNN Politics

CNN · by Natasha Bertrand,Zachary Cohen,Kylie Atwood · June 5, 2023

Washington CNN —

Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia working to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian targets and has begun providing them with drones to stage attacks, multiple people familiar with US intelligence on the matter told CNN.

US officials believe these pro-Ukrainian agents inside Russia carried out a drone attack that targeted the Kremlin in early May by launching drones from within Russia rather than flying them from Ukraine into Moscow.

It is not clear whether other drone attacks carried out in recent days – including one targeting a residential neighborhood near Moscow and another strike on oil refineries in southern Russia – were also launched from inside Russia or conducted by this network of pro-Ukrainian operatives.

But US officials believe that Ukraine has developed sabotage cells inside Russia made up of a mix of pro-Ukrainian sympathizers and operatives well-trained in this kind of warfare. Ukraine is believed to have provided them with Ukrainian-made drones, and two US officials told CNN there is no evidence that any of the drone strikes have been conducted using US-provided drones.

Officials could not say conclusively how Ukraine has managed to get the drones behind enemy lines, but two of the sources told CNN that it has established well-practiced smuggling routes that could be used to send drones or drone components into Russia where they could then be assembled.

‘Cash works wonders’

A European intelligence official noted that the Russian-Ukrainian border is vast and very difficult to control, making it ripe for smuggling – something the official said the Ukrainians have been doing for the better part of the decade that they’ve been at war with pro-Russian forces.

“You also have to consider that this is a peripheral area of Russia,” the official said. “Survival is everyone’s problem, so cash works wonders.”

A drone explodes in an intense burst of light near the dome of the Kremlin in Moscow, in this image taken from video obtained by Reuters May 3, 2023.

Ostorozhno Novosti/Reuters

Who exactly is controlling these assets is also murky, the sources told CNN, though US officials believe that elements within Ukraine’s intelligence community are involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set general parameters for what his intelligence and security services are allowed to do, two of the sources said, but not every operation requires his sign-off.

Asked for comment, a spokesperson for the head of the Ukrainian Security Service suggested to CNN that the mysterious explosions and drone strikes inside Russia would continue.

“We will comment on instances of ‘cotton’ only after our victory,” he said. Quoting the head of the Security Service, Vasyl Malyuk, the spokesperson added that regardless, “‘cotton’ has been burning, is burning, and will continue burning.”

“Cotton” is a slang-word that Ukrainians use to mean explosions, usually in Russia or Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. Its origins date back to the early weeks of the war and stem from the fact that the Russian word for a “pop” is very similar to the Ukrainian word for cotton.

‘A culmination of months of effort’

There has been a steady drumbeat of mysterious fires and explosions inside Russia over the last year, targeting oil and fuel depots, railways, military enlistment offices, warehouses and pipelines. But officials have noticed an uptick in these attacks on Russian soil in recent weeks, beginning with the attack on the Kremlin building. It appears to be “a culmination of months of effort” by the Ukrainians to set up the infrastructure for such sabotage, said one of the sources familiar with the intelligence.

“There has been for months now a pretty consistent push by some in Ukraine to be more aggressive,” this person said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of US intelligence. “And there has certainly been some willingness at senior levels. The challenge has always been their ability to do it.”

A specialist inspects the damaged facade of an apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023.

Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has consistently proposed some of the most brazen plans for operations against Russia and values symbolic acts, US officials told CNN.

Classified Pentagon documents leaked online earlier this year revealed that the CIA urged Budanov to “postpone” attacks on Russia on the anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine, according to the Washington Post. Budanov agreed to the CIA’s request, the classified documents reportedly said. But drones were spotted near Moscow on February 28, just days after the one-year anniversary of the war.

Another leaked US intelligence report obtained by CNN, which is sourced to signals intelligence, says that Zelensky in late February “suggested striking Russian deployment locations in Russia’s Rostov Oblast” using drones, since Ukraine does not have long-range weapons capable of reaching that far.

It is not clear whether that plan moved forward, but oil facilities in Rostov Oblast have caught on fire after being hit by suspected drones several times over the last year – attacks Russia is now investigating and has blamed on “criminal actions by the Armed formations of Ukraine.”

“All I will comment on is that we’ve been killing Russians,” Budanov told Yahoo News last month when asked about the car bomb attack that killed the daughter of a prominent Russian political figure in Moscow’s suburbs last year. The US intelligence community assessed that that operation was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government.

“And we will keep killing Russians anywhere on the face of this world until the complete victory of Ukraine,” Budanov added.

A savvy military strategy

Publicly, senior US officials have condemned the strikes inside Russia, warning of the potential for an escalation of the war. But speaking privately to CNN, US and western officials said that they believe the cross-border attacks are a smart military strategy that could divert Russian resources to protecting its own territory, as Ukraine gears up for a major counteroffensive.

On Tuesday, the UK’s Foreign Secretary told reporters that Ukraine has “the right to project force beyond its borders to undermine Russia’s ability to project force into Ukraine itself. Legitimate military targets beyond its own borders are internationally recognized as being part of a nation’s self-defense…We should recognize that.”

French Vice Admiral Nicolas Vaujour, chief of operations of the Joint Staff, told CNN on Friday that the attacks inside Russia are merely “part of war” and offer an opportunity to send a message to Russia’s population.

“There is a war there and it could concern you [the Russian public] in the future,” Vaujour said of the attacks. “And so it’s a good way for Ukrainians to address a message not only to Vladimir Putin, but to the Russian population,” he added.

Regarding the attacks, he said that it wasn’t “forbidden” for Ukraine to think about that.

Ukrainian officials, moreover, have said privately that they plan to continue the attacks inside Russia because it is a good distraction tactic that is forcing Russia to be concerned with its own security at home, according to a US source who has spoken to Ukrainian officials in recent days.

In an intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defense said that attacks by pro-Ukrainian partisan groups and drone strikes in the border region of Belgorod have forced Russia to deploy “the full range of military firepower on its own territory.”

“Russian commanders now face an acute dilemma,” the update said, “of whether to strength defences in Russia’s border regions or reinforce their lines in occupied Ukraine.”

CNN’s Jennifer Hansler, Alex Marquardt and Oren Liebermann contributed to this report.

CNN · by Natasha Bertrand,Zachary Cohen,Kylie Atwood · June 5, 2023

8. Chinese Next-Generation Psychological Warfare

The 224 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA800/RRA853-1/RAND_RRA853-1.pdf

Chinese Next-Generation Psychological Warfare

The Military Applications of Emerging Technologies and Implications for the United States

by Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA853-1.html

China views psychological warfare, centered on the manipulation of information to influence adversary decisionmaking and behavior, as one of several key components of modern warfare. The U.S. military's increased focus on China and preparations for a potential U.S.-China conflict mean that it is important to understand how Chinese psychological warfare capabilities may evolve and what they would mean for Chinese strategic behavior in a crisis or conflict. The author explores Chinese military thinking about next-generation psychological warfare. China is interested in both advanced computing, such as big data, and brain science for their potential military applications to improve future psychological warfare capabilities.

Leveraging a wide array of Chinese-language primary-source materials, the author provides an overview of Chinese thinking on psychological warfare, key capabilities, and related operational concepts that the Chinese military is pursuing and presents a hypothetical case study to illustrate how these capabilities, if realized, may be applied to a future U.S.-China contingency. One high-risk future scenario is if the Chinese military and broader leadership believes that these emerging technologies enable Beijing to predict or otherwise influence adversary decisionmaking. This could lead Beijing to have misplaced confidence in its ability to deter adversaries from fighting or coerce them to not fight at all.

Research Questions

How does China think about future psychological warfare and the cognitive domain? What are some emerging operational concepts?
What emerging technologies are the Chinese military interested in leveraging for next-generation psychological warfare? Is there any evidence of tangible Chinse efforts to actually develop these capabilities?
What shortcomings do Chinese military psychological warfare researchers identify that might hinder desired progress?
How might Chinese psychological warfare capabilities evolve, and what would they mean for Chinese strategic behavior in a crisis or conflict?
How could Chinese capabilities affect U.S.-China dynamics over peacetime competition, crisis, and conflict?

Key Findings

Chinese military thinking on psychological warfare is much more diverse than previously understood

Although there are areas of general agreement (the objectives of psychological warfare), there is clearly debate over various operational concepts.

The People's Liberation Army psychological warfare community has discussed a variety of technologies that it envisions leveraging for future operations

These include advanced computing, especially big data and information processing; brain science, especially brain imaging; and legacy proposals that remain of interest, including sonic weapons, laser weapons, subliminal messaging, and holograms.
There is strong evidence the Chinese military has developed and employed information manipulation capabilities and laser weapons already, although it is unclear whether these have been specifically intended as psychological warfare.

There are three alternative futures that illustrate potential trends and the long-term outlook for Chinese psychological warfare

The first is an embrace of information manipulation as a leading edge of national power.
The second is a bold new direction for warfare, centered on a Chinese military embrace of emerging technology for predicting or otherwise shaping adversary decisionmaking.
The third is a failure of imagination, causing a continuation of the status quo for Chinese military capabilities.

The real-world impact of next-generation psychological warfare capabilities may be even less important than Beijing's assumption about whether they will work as intended, or, once employment begins, even its perception that they are working as intended

This raises the risk that once China realizes that its psychological warfare efforts are not having the intended effect, such as the adversary taking a different course of action, Beijing might respond in unpredictable ways.

Recommendations

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should pay special attention to indications that the Chinese military is becoming more interested in predicting or influencing adversary decisionmaking.
DoD should continue to improve its understanding of Chinese psychological warfare theory (doctrine) and development of new capabilities across the research and development process.
DoD should better understand China's psychological warfare workforce.
DoD should better understand Chinese psychological warfare operations and training.
DoD should pay special attention to how Beijing is applying military-civil fusion toward psychological warfare.
DoD should better understand Chinese concerns about adversary psychological warfare for defense.
DoD should consider how to protect its troops from Chinese psychological warfare (nonlethal) weapons.
DoD should consider how to protect its troops from Chinese information collection and information manipulation.
DoD should consider dialogue with China, specifically the Chinese military, on the implications of new technology for warfare and the acceptable scope of conflict.
The U.S. intelligence community should pay special attention to an increase in intelligence deception from China.

Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Overview of Chinese Psychological Warfare
Chapter Three
People's Liberation Army Views of the Cognitive Domain
Chapter Four
Chinese Military Research on Next-Generation Psychological Warfare
Chapter Five
Gauging People's Liberation Army Interest and Potential Challenges
Chapter Six
Applied Case Study
Chapter Seven
Implications for the United States

9. Fleet’s material condition keeps getting worse, new INSURV report says

And what if we have to fight tonight?

Fleet’s material condition keeps getting worse, new INSURV report says

navytimes.com · by Geoff Ziezulewicz · June 2, 2023

The Navy fleet’s overall material condition declined slightly in fiscal 2022, “resuming a slight but steady negative trend” that has occurred since fiscal 2017, according to the Navy’s annual Board of Inspection and Survey, or INSURV, report released by the Navy on Friday.

The report notes that the negative trend “is more notable” due to changes in INSURV calculations that adhere more closely to Joint Fleet Maintenance Manual metrics.

INSURV also removed major system demonstration and administrative program scores from the INSURV Figure of Merit, or IFOM, calculations.

“The updated IFOM calculation generates a more focused measure of overall material condition,” the report states.

Go here to read the full INSURV report that was sent to Congress.

The board changed its ship inspection waiver policy in FY20, requiring vessels to be inspected every three years or be considered overdue.

At the end of FY22, roughly 44 percent of vessels were overdue for inspection, according to the report.

The report also warns that INSURV does not have enough people to inspect every ship every three years, and notes that it had to lean on Regional Maintenance Center technicians to serve as inspectors.

Surface ship readiness continues to struggle, US Navy inspections show

Surface ship maintenance continued its slide in 2020, according to a new annual report from the Board of Inspection and Survey.

By David B. Larter

“INSURV does not possess sufficient funded billets to perform all inspection elements, especially the most specialized, specific technical requirements,” the report states.

The report found that the material condition of surface ships, submarines and aircraft carriers “all declined slightly from FY 2021,” but that the largest year-to-year drop occurred in the Military Sealift Command Fleet.

“Overall, several functional areas and subsystems remain degraded or show declining trends, indicative of areas where material readiness is stressed,” the report states.

INSURV conducted 80 material inspections of in-service vessels in FY22, a 72 percent increase in total inspections compared to the six-year average, the report states.

Inspectors also conducted 23 trials of new-construction ships, along with eight surveys.

Of those, the Virginia-class submarine, Independence-class littoral combat ship, Spearhead-class expeditionary fast transport, ship-to-shore connector, yard tug and barracks barge programs performed well on trials.

“The remaining programs experienced significant deviations from OPNAV trial requirements, missed key program milestones, or had declining trial performance during the fiscal year,” according to the report.

INSURV conducts a range of inspections of ships already in the fleet and those being introduced to the fleet in order to ensure they will be able to meet their mission, the report states. The office also conducts surveys on ships at the end of their service lives when required.

INSURV scores ships based on the “weighted average of the material condition of equipment in functional areas” that are generally aligned along roughly 156 systems and about 551 sub-systems.

A chart from the Navy's annual Board of Inspection and Survey report shows the six-year trend for surface functional area scores and the total number of ships inspected each year. (Navy)

The surface fleet showed “a slightly decreasing trend” in the average IFOM score, and the scores for FY22 were below the six-year average.

All told, INSURV evaluated 14 functional areas as degraded in the surface fleet ships it assessed.

The submarine community “showed a slight decline from FY 2021 and was just below the 6-year average,” according to the report. Two functional areas were evaluated as degraded in the FY22 assessment.

A chart from the Navy's annual Board of Inspection and Survey report shows the six-year trend for submarine functional area scores and the total number of boats inspected each year. (Navy)

INSURV notes that carrier data “has been difficult to trend due to the small samples sizes that result when a population of ten to eleven CVNs was historically inspected an average of once every five to six years.”

To increase the sample size and make the trends more relevant, INSURV expanded the overall trend time period to 12 years and grouped the carriers into multi-year periods, according to the report.

The carrier scores “remained consistent with FY 2021 result and equaled the 6-year average,” the report states.

Eleven functional areas were evaluated as degraded.

A chart from the Navy's annual Board of Inspection and Survey report details the condition of carriers. INSURV expanded the overall time period of the trend (12 years) and grouped the CVNs into multi-year periods. (Navy)

The scoring averages for the Military Sealift Command fleet were lower in FY22 than the six-year average, according to the report.

“FY 2022 scores and trends indicate nearly all functional areas experience a decline over previous years,” the report states, noting a “precipitous drop” in IFOM scores for that fleet.

A chart from the Navy's annual Board of Inspection and Survey report shows the five-year trend for Military Sealift Command functional area scores and the total number of ships inspected each year. (Navy)

About Geoff Ziezulewicz

Geoff is a senior staff reporter for Military Times, focusing on the Navy. He covered Iraq and Afghanistan extensively and was most recently a reporter at the Chicago Tribune. He welcomes any and all kinds of tips at geoffz@militarytimes.com.

10. Marines Will Restructure Infantry Battalions by September

Marines Will Restructure Infantry Battalions by September

The changes are informed by the service’s Infantry Battalion Experiment, part of Force Design 2030.

BY CAITLIN M. KENNEY

STAFF REPORTER, DEFENSE ONE

JUNE 5, 2023 05:18 AM ET

defenseone.com · by Caitlin M. Kenney

The Marine Corps will reconfigure all of its infantry battalions and shrink them from roughly 900 to just over 800 Marines by this fall as part of the service’s ongoing Force Design modernization effort.

The units will also have more medical and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as loitering munitions—changes that came out of the service’s Infantry Battalion Experiment as it prepares for future conflicts. The changes were announced Monday as part of the service's Force Design Annual Update.

The Marines in 2020 began the Infantry Battalion Experiment, or IBX, to see if they could rework infantry battalions to be smaller while at the same time having Marines trained to use a variety of weapons in a distributed environment. Commandant Gen. David Berger has said Force Design 2030 was necessary to get the force ready for potential operations in the Pacific and elsewhere.

The service used three existing battalions to test a variety of configurations, including one with just 735 Marines. During Phase I of the experimentation, which included 13 “live-force experiments” in different locations—they realized that was too small.

“We essentially broke the battalion. I mean, those are my words,” Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, the deputy commandant for Combat Development and Integration, told reporters Friday ahead of the update’s release. “But that's what we wanted, right? So we found our far left, left lateral limit, right? And then we came back. So we—the commandant made the decision to bring the infantry battalion number back up to 811.”

The Force Design update released Monday directs the deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs to “implement the 811 Marine battalion structure across all active and reserve component infantry units” by September 1.

This is the third and final update to the plan under Berger, who is retiring this summer. Berger has faced criticism from retired Marine leaders for some of the modernization effort’s major changes, but has also received support in Congress for the overhaul.

Despite critics saying that “we don’t listen,” Heckl said Berger “didn’t even balk” at the recommendation given by senior commanders to increase the size of the battalions from the proposed 735 level.

“This is what Marines do better than anybody,” he said. “We're small enough that we can be agile, and quick, and make changes quickly and efficiently. And that’s exactly what is happening here.”

The 811 number means battalions will be able to keep an entire 81-mm mortar section, instead of cutting it in half as would have been required with the 735 number, said Brig. Gen Kyle Ellison, the commander of the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab.

“The 81-mm mortar is an all-weather capable fire support asset for the battalion,” Ellison said. “Based on experimentation, what we determined was … some of our autonomous systems and loitering munitions that we're going to bring to bear here in the future aren’t all-weather. And so how do you create that complement of systems that enable us to maintain a combined-arms capable force at the battalion level?”

The redesigned battalions will also have a scout platoon that does “multidomain reconnaissance at the battalion level, being able to sense and make sense forward on a distributed battlefield,” a capability commanders currently do not have, Ellison said. Battalions will also have electronic warfare capabilities and loitering munitions at the company level, and more medical capabilities at the company and battalion level.

“We're going to be encountering a level—if we go to combat—a level of combat casualty care requirements that we haven't seen since World War II,” he said. “How are we going to keep faith with our people and be able to take care of them and evacuate them in a contested environment?”

The Marines settled on an 811-Marine battalion size last year, but also decided to keep experimenting and do a second phase of IBX, which Ellison calls the “decisive phase.” This phase is currently underway, focused on just 3rd Battalion, 4th Marines, based at Marine Corps Base Twentynine Palms in California.

The second phase “will be characterized by further refinements following a series of experiments at the company and battalion levels. These experiments will primarily focus on C5ISRT, sustainment, sensing, and lethality,” according to the new Force Design update. C5ISRT is command, control, computing, communications, cyber, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting.

Third Battalion, 4th Marines returned from deployment in April, and over 18 months, as it prepares for the next one, the unit will be manned, trained, and equipped based on how the Marine Corps envisions future infantry battalions, “so we can assess it and build that body of evidence to make sure we found the sweet spot with our experimentation and our equipment,” Ellison said. The Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, which is leading the experimentation effort, will work with the unit through their training and deployment, he said.

“So we’re going to experiment with them in every clime and place, to include the jungles of Okinawa, Japan, and in the Pacific,” he said. “So it's about an 18 month experimentation timeline, but we'll recommend decisions as we learn. We're not going to wait to make decisions, there’s second- and third-order effects to every decision we make. And part of our responsibility is to inform Lt. Gen. Heckl of decisions that can be made early that help us anticipate later decisions or enable alternatives across the rest of the force.”

defenseone.com · by Caitlin M. Kenney

11. Special Operations News Update - June 5, 2023 | SOF News

Special Operations News Update - June 5, 2023 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 5, 2023

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world.

Photo / Image: Marines jump from a KC-130J Super Hercules during parachute drills over Okinawa, Japan, May 16, 2023. Photo by Marine Corps Cpl. Michael Taggart.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

SOF News

MG Bargewell Dedication. On May 20, 2023, a park dedication ceremony was held on Armed Forces Day dedicating Delta Park in Hoquiam, Washington to Major General Eldon Bargewell, a retired Special Forces officer now deceased. https://eldonbargewell.org/

Fallen ARSOF Remembered. The names of 1,242 fallen Army Special Operations warriors are etched on the Memorial Wall at the U.S. Army Special Operations Command headquaters at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. USASOC honored their legacy during a Gold Star Memorial Ceremony held on May 25, 2023. “Fallen warriors of Army Special Operations honored, remembered”, U.S. Army, March 26, 2023.

Former SOF Intel Officer Jailed. A retired lieutenant colonel, Robert Birchum, who worked in various intelligence positions with the Joint Special Operations Command, U.S. Special Operations Command, and other intel organizations has been sentenced to three years imprisonment for removing more than 300 classified files or documents from authorized locations and storing them in his home. “Retired Air Force officer gets 3 years for having classified documents”, Air Force Times, June 2, 2023.

Army to Cut SOF by 10%? Lawmakers and Army officials have discussed cuts through the decade’s end, including cutting force strength of Green Berets and PSYOP. “Army Mulls 10-20% Cut to Special Operations Forces”, Defense One, May 22, 2023.

CA Officer Assignment. Brig. Gen. Andree G. Carter, deputy commanding general, U.S. Army Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, will be assigned as the commander, 350th Civil Affairs Command, Pensacola, Florida.

SF Officer Assignment. Brig. Gen. Lawrence G. Ferguson, deputy commanding general (Operations), 1st Special Forces Command (Airborne), Fort Bragg, North Carolina, is assigned as commanding general, 1st Special Forces Command (Airborne), Fort Bragg, North Carolina.

193rd SOW and ACE. Agile Combat Employment or ACE is a concept that the 193rd Special Operations Wing is incorporating into its training program. The wing is exploring expansion of its course offerings at Fort Indiantown Gap in Pennsylvania. Read more in “Wing eyes Regional Training Site as location for national Agile Combat Employment instruction”, 193rd SOW, June 2, 2023.

1952 Society. The Green Beret Foundation has established the 1952 Society; a mechanism that provides an opportunity for people to take part in a tiered donation system that provides vital support and assistance to U.S. Army Special Forces Soldiers, their families, caregivers, and survivors. https://greenberetfoundation.org/society/

SFA Caribbean Cruise. The Special Forces Association is planning on holding their 2024 SFA Annual Convention aboard a cruise ship for five days in October 2024. The ship sails from Tampa, Florida and will visit a few ports before returning. Events are planned before and after the cruise voyage in Tampa – golf, motorcycle ride, etc. Registration Site – https://sfali.org/cruise-pre-registration-page/

MARSOC and Global Health Engagement. One key mission of the Marine Forces Special Operations Command is Foreign Internal Defense (FID). The basic concept is to place a Marine Special Operations Company (MSOC) in a country, work with local partner forces to exchange ideas and practices, and help increase their ability to working independently to increase national security. A piece of that concept is the improvement of the public health of both the local populous and the partner nation’s military – implementing something called Global Health Engagement or GHE. “MARSOC, SOCOM and the influence of Global Health Engagement”, DVIDS, March 21, 2023.

Emerald Warrior and Video Gaming. All five U.S. Special Operations Command components took part in a video game component of a special operations exercise in May 2023. The USSOCOM initiative allowed the SOF components to exercise a problem set using a distributed mission operation (DMO) network. “AFSOC used video game – – like simulation training, adds realistic, world-wide value”, AFSOC, May 24, 2023.

Sky Warden Delivery Announced. USSOCOM will begin accepting delivery of a modified crop-duster as the platform selected for its Armed Overwatch mission. “Get Ready for Sky Warden: First Delivery Set for October”, Air and Space Forces, May 22, 2023.

AFSOC Air Advisor Conference. Key members from across the Security Force Assistance and Air Advisor enterprise gathered for a summit on 23-25 May, 2023 at Hurlburt Field. “AFSOC hosts Security Forces Assistance Air Advisor Summit”, AFSOC, May 31, 2023.

USASOAC Tests ‘Air-Launched Effects”. The US Army Special Operations Aviation Command took part in a the third iteration of the Experimental Demonstration Gateway Exercise (EDGE 23) in Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona testing ways it could best deploy ‘launched effects’. Essentially . . . small drones shot out of something else . . . mid-flight from a Gray Eagle UAW or MH-60M Black Hawk. “Army special ops put “launched effects” prototype through its paces at EDGE 23″, Breaking Defense, May 25, 2023.

Death of SEAL Candidate. A 198-page report dated March 24, 2023, by the U.S. Navy’s Naval Education and Training Command points to systemic failures in the medical staff at BUD/S as contributing to the death of a SEAL candidate in February 2022. “Report Finds Inadequate Medical Oversight Led to 2022 SEAL Candidate’s Death”, SANDBOXX, May 30, 2023. See also “Navy SEAL training plagued by problems, investigation finds after death of sailor”, Los Angeles Times, May 26, 2023.

Fallen Warriors Remembered by Project 33. Members of the armed services are honored by a foundation established to pay tribute to those who lost their lives in America’s wars. “Project 33 leads effort to teach Americans about lives of the fallen”, Military Families Magazine, May 21, 2023.

GB Foundation VP / COO Announcement. Francis Arias has been promoted to the role of Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Green Beret Foundation. She recently served as Director of Operations for the Foundation. The Foundation provides U.S. Army Special Forces Soldiers and their families with emergency, immediate and ongoing support. (PR Newswire, May 24, 2023).

26th MEU and NSW Conduct Exercise TRIDENT 23-4. The Maritime Special Purpose Force (MSPF) of the 26tyh Marine Expeditionary Unit integrated with East Coast-based Naval Special Warfare operators to exercise direct-action SOF raid training and advanced training focused on Military Assisted Departure (MAD) and Non-combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) during May 2023. (DVIDS, May 31, 2023)

SLIC Lectures at NAVSCIATTS. The Naval Small Craft Instruction and Technical Training School, a security cooperation schoolhouse operating under the U.S. Special Operations Command, is holding a 4-week long Stratetic Leaders International Course (SLIC) at its headquarters in at Stennis Space Center in South Mississippi. “NAVSCIATTS holds opening SLIC lectures for Semester 23-4 iteration”, DVIDS, June 1, 2023.

FBNC Now Fort Liberty. A big chunk of Airborne and Special Forces heritage has gone away as the long-time name of Fort Bragg has now been struck from the history books. (Military.com, June 2, 2023).

International SOF

Turkish SF to Kosovo. Turkish SOF will be part of a peacekeeping mission. A commando battalion from the 65th Mechanized Infantry Brigade will deploy to be part of NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) to help address the ongoing unrest in the northern region of the Balkan country. “Turkish Defense Ministry sending special forces to Kosovo at NATO’s request”, Turkish Minute, June 3, 2023.

Italian SOF Mini-Sub Revealed. A previously unreported Italian special operations mini-submarine has been seen for the first time. The remarkable thing about the AE-90 Submarine, believed to have been designed and employed as early as the 1990s, is that it has been retired from use. “Previously Unreported Italian Special Forces AE-90 Submarine Seen For First Time”, Covert Shores, June 2, 2023.

UK SF Busy Around the World. According to a report by a research group called the Action On Armed Violence (AVAO) UK special forces have conducted secret operations in 19 countries over the past twelve years. These operations include hostage rescues, exfiltration, training, and protection. The AOAV has historically highlighted the need for more public oversight on UK special forces operations. (AOAV, May 22, 2023).

Somali SF Complete Uganda Training. A group of Special Forces attached to the Somali National Army (SNA) has completed special training at Uganda’s 206 Commando Brigade Training Centre. “Somali Special Forces Complete Commando Training in Uganda”, All Africa, May 22, 2023.

Australia SOF and War Crimes. Three Australian newspapers were sued by Australia’s most-decorated living soldier over a series of articles in 2018 which he says defamed him. At the center of the trial was the personal life of Ben Roberts-Smith, a former member of the Special Air Service (SAS), and allegations of war crimes committed by Australian forces. “Ben Roberts-Smith: How decorated soldier’s defamation case has rocked Australia”, BBC News, June 1, 2023. See also “US warned it might suspend ties with Australian special forces oveer war crime allegations”, The Guardian, May 31, 2023.

SOF History

USAJFKSWCS. On June 1, 1983, the US Army Institute for Military Assistance (USAIMA) was renamed the US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School.

Jedburghs. On June 4, 1944, Jedburgh teams parachuted into France to link up with French resistance. One member of these teams was Lucien Stervinou, a French man who joined up with the French resistance forces based in England while France was occupied by the Germans.

June 6, 1944. D-day; the Allies stormed the beaches of Normandy, France to establish beachheads and then drive into the interior of France during World War II.

Sudan Conflict and Evac of Foreign Nationals

Irish Evac Effort. Operation Piccolo was a rescue mission to evacuate Irish citizens from Sudan as hostilities broke out between warring factions in April 2023. An Emergency Civil Assistance Team (ECAT) was formed up that would remove more than 250 Irish people from Sudan. Some members of the ECAT were from the Army Ranger Wing; a SOF organization that also assisted in the Kabul non-combatant evacuation operation of August 2021. Read more on this topic in “Inside the military and diplomatic mission to evacuate Irish citizens from Sudan”, The Journal, May 28, 2023.

Update on the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), ceasefire, humanitarian crisis, and evacuation of foreign nationals. (archived)

https://www.national-security.info/country/sudan/sudan-neo.html

Commentary

NSW and Fleet Tactics. Lieutenent Commander Kenneth Walls, an active-duty naval officer, argues that naval special warfare can contribute much to the fight at sea. However, he believes that the tactical integration of NSW into the functions and counterfunctions of scouting, command and control, and firepower is underdeveloped. He believes that the NSW community and the Navy need to improve their understanding of each other to ensure that NSW can effectively contribute to fleet-level operations against peer threats in the maritime environment. “Fleet Tactics & Special Warfare”, Proceedings, June 2023.

Europe and Irregular Warfare. The term irregular warfare means many things to different people. It is an elusive concept across the United States government as well as among US allies and partners. This is especially true of our European partners. The Irregular Warfare Center (IWC) recently completed a study of how European institutions conceptionalize irregular warfare. Read more on this in “Divided by a Common Language: How Europe Views Irregular Warfare”, IW Initiative, May 31, 2023.

National Security

Border Crisis. Several states are sending troops to the southern border to assist in providing security due to the massive amounts of migrants attempting to cross into the United States. Arkansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Florida, and West Virginia are among those states sending troops.

Congressional Testimony on GPC. Dr. Jonathan Schroden of CNA testitied before the Senate Armed Services Committee on May 17, 2023 on how special operations forces can contribute to strategic competion with Russia and China. His testimony highlighted a variety of areas where SOF can contribute – to include intelligence operations, information sharing, foreign internal defense, and information operations.

Preparing for War in the Arctic. Climate change and geopolitics are reshaping the High North’s strategic landscape – from the military balance of power to the quest for oil, gas, and mineral resources. SOF and the 11th Airborne Division are ramping up their cold weather training. “Hiding an Army at the Top of the World”, Bloomberg, June 4, 2023.

Chinese PSYOP. A report by RAND Corporation provides information on the psychological warfare capabilities of the Chinese military and some of its emerging operational concepts. China views the manipulation of information to influence adversary decisionmaking and behavior as a key component of modern warfare. Chinese Next–Generation Psychological Warfare, RAND, June 2023, PDF, 224 pages. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA853-1.html

Arrow Security & Training, LLC is a corporate sponsor of SOF News. AST offers a wide range of training and instruction courses and programs to include language and cultural services, training, role playing, and software and simulation. https://arrowsecuritytraining.com/

Afghanistan

Controlling the Skies Over Kabul – August 2021. On August 13, 2021, four Marines from the Marine Air Control Group -28 Detachment of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) flew to Kabul to help manage the chaotic situation at Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). With little sleep, the Marines were handling more numerous flights per day – and providing updated information to several U.S. agencies as well as many foreign militaries. “How Marines brought order to the skies during the Kabul airlift”, Military Times, May 30, 2023.

Movie Review – Kandahar. Gerard Butler is cast in an action-thriller set in Afghanistan at the time of the U.S. withdrawal from that country in August 2021. Butler plays an undercover special ops CIA operative stationed in Afghanistan when his identity is leaked by a Pentagon informant. Journal & Topics, June 2, 2023. https://www.journal-topics.com/articles/movie-review-kandahar/

Africa

EU in Niger. The European Union has established a diplomatic and military presence in Niger to assist that country and other regional countries in the containment of violent jihadism. In February 2022 the European Union Military Partnership Mission or EUMPM was established with the ami to strengthen the military capacities of the Nigerien Armed Forces. Read more in “EU operations in Niger”, Grey Dynamics, June 1, 2023.

Upcoming Events

June 21-22, 2023

Warrior East

ADS

August 5, 2023. Perdido Key, Florida

Deep Dive 2023 Combat Diver Reunion

CDF

August 12, 2023

11th Special Forces Group Reunion

Fort Meade, MD

December 8, 2023

Winter Cruise

Combat Diver Association

SOF News welcomes the submission of articles for publication. If it is related to special operations, current conflicts, national security, or defense then we are interested.

Books, Pubs, and Reports

Proceedings. The June 2023 issue by the U.S. Naval Institute has been posted online. This issue is focused on Information Warfare (IW) and artificial intelligence (AI). https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/june

Sentinel. The June 2023 issue is now available online. Some great articles about Special Forces in Indochina. https://www.specialforces78.com/chapter-78-newsletter-for-june-2023/

CRS Report – Defense Primer: Naval Forces. The Congressional Research Service has updated its brief on U.S. Naval Forces; providing a description of the strategy, ship types, size of Navy, force-level goals, and more. Updated May 25, 2023, CRS IF10486, PDF, 3 pages.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10486

CRS Report – Defense Primer: Strategic Nuclear Forces. The Congressional Research Service has updated its brief on U.S. nuclear forces; describing the triad: ICBMs, heavy bombers, and SLBMs. Updated May 19, 2023, CRS IF10519, PDF, 3 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10519

Podcasts, Videos, and Movies

Video – Counterintelligence and SOF in the Gray Zone. Colonel (Ret) Christopher Costa is interviewed about how the new eara of counterintelligence must shift focus from the counterrorism era to strategic competion and for greater SOF participation in developing aggressive, innovative, and proactive counterintelligence responses to China, Russia, Iran and other foreign intelligence entities. Think JSOU, Joint Special Operations University, April 28, 2023, YouTube, 1 1/2 hour.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZkhxtv8ZME

Video – Emerald Warrior. This exercise is the largest joint special operations event involving U.S. Special Operations Command forces training to respond to various threats across the spectrum of conflict. DVIDS, May 31, 2023, 2 minutes. https://www.dvidshub.net/video/885051/emerald-warrior-final-video

Podcast – The Team Sergeant. The wealth of knowledge and experience of the Special Forces NCOs seemed to have declined as the Vietnam era veterans retired. Tom Kelly discusses his new book about leadership and how to be a team sergeant (18Z) in today’s Special Forces Regiment. https://pinelander.podbean.com/e/episode-073-team-sergeant-handbook-may-19-2023/

Movie Trailer – Mission Impossible 7 Dead Reakoning. Another American action spy film starring Tom Cruise will soon be in the theaters. Looks to be a good one, check out the trailer. (YouTube, May 2023)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIusD7uLX90

Movie Trailer – Hidden Strike. Two ex-special forces soldiers, John Cena and Jackie Chan, must escort a group of civilians along Baghdad’s “highway of death” to the safety of the Green Zone. (YouTube, May 30, 2023). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_jEicE6KyQ

Podcasts

SOFCAST. United States Special Operations Command

https://linktr.ee/sofcast

The Pinelander. Blacksmith Publishing

https://www.thepinelander.com/

The Indigenous Approach. 1st Special Forces Command

https://open.spotify.com/show/3n3I7g9LSmd143GYCy7pPA

Irregular Warfare Podcast. Modern War Institute at West Point

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/irregular-warfare-podcast/id1514636385

SOF News is not a ‘money making’ enterprise; but we do have administrative, operating, and publishing expenses. Individuals and businesses provide the funds to defray these expenses. Their contributions are deeply appreciated. Learn how you can support SOF News.

sof.news · by SOF News · June 5, 2023

12. Army Seeks Bomb-Carrying Drones Like Ukraine’s

Excerpts:

According to the new solicitation, the drones would be used by soldiers in mechanized units—from the squad to “potentially” the brigade level—and would need at least a 500-gram payload. The possible targets include enemy soldiers and vehicles.

Ukrainians and Russians have frequently used commercial drones to attack each other.

At one drone-training center Defense One toured in Ukraine, volunteers rigged a photography drone to drop bombs by using the drone’s camera flash to activate a light-sensitive switch.

Both sides also pack explosives onto first-person-view drones—originally designed for racing and designed to go very fast—turning them into suicide drones. K-2, commander of a battalion within Ukraine’s 54th brigade, told Defense One he has special units in charge of operating those drones.

Army Seeks Bomb-Carrying Drones Like Ukraine’s

Average U.S. soldiers could pilot lethal quadcopters—if they are ever fielded.

defenseone.com · by Sam Skove

The U.S. Army wants to develop bomb-carrying drones similar to the jury-rigged commercial drones widely used in Ukraine, according to a service solicitation to industry.

The proposal-submission solicitation notes the drones’ utility to infantry, suggesting that lethal drones may one day be a common tool in the average infantry platoon’s kit.

U.S. Army Special Operations Command already operates a variety of smaller drones, most prominently the Switchblade suicide drone.

The wider Army, however, only operates the Skydio X2D unarmed reconnaissance drone at the small-unit level, according to the early-May posting by the Army Applications Laboratory. Skydio won a five-year fixed-price contract from the Army in early 2022, valued at $20 million per year.

Developing small, lethal drones is “vital for Army future combat operations,” the lab wrote in its call for submissions. Created in 2018 under Army Futures Command, the lab identifies commercial tools of potential use to soldiers.

The solicitation says drones must come from the Defense Department’s vetted list. Known as the Blue UAS list, it includes a mix of quad-copters—similar to the DJI Mavic 3 that is widely used in Ukraine—and winged drones. The proposal specifically disallows WingtraOne, a 4-foot winged drone, but does not say why.

The solicitation also says soldiers must be able to drop munitions using the drones’ controller—and that suppliers should eventually integrate this feature into “ATEK.”

The Army Applications Laboratory did not respond to questions about “ATEK” by publication time, but it may be a reference to ATAK, an Air Force-designed Android app used for live video feeds and geospatial mapping, among other things.

The solicitation says the drone’s munitions must also be more deadly than a M67 fragmentation grenade. The Army’s Combat Capabilities Development Command is already working on dropping M67 grenades from the Skydio X2D, according to the request, mimicking widely used tactics in Ukraine.

Such drones could be useful for harassing an adversary, with particularly deadly results if the enemy is caught unawares. “Whenever you can get a cheap kill, you should go for the cheap kill,” said Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation.

The unmanned systems could also be armed with an anti-tank warhead, potentially replacing costlier systems like the Javelin missile, Boston added.

Fielding such cheap drones would also help Army units get in more hands-on training and mean that soldiers wouldn’t run out of them in a firefight, Boston said.

The solicitation follows a December request by the Army Application Laboratory that drone companies explain how their systems could be used as loitering munitions. That posting said the Army was researching the effort because of drones’ use in the war in Ukraine.

According to the new solicitation, the drones would be used by soldiers in mechanized units—from the squad to “potentially” the brigade level—and would need at least a 500-gram payload. The possible targets include enemy soldiers and vehicles.

Ukrainians and Russians have frequently used commercial drones to attack each other.

At one drone-training center Defense One toured in Ukraine, volunteers rigged a photography drone to drop bombs by using the drone’s camera flash to activate a light-sensitive switch.

Both sides also pack explosives onto first-person-view drones—originally designed for racing and designed to go very fast—turning them into suicide drones. K-2, commander of a battalion within Ukraine’s 54th brigade, told Defense One he has special units in charge of operating those drones.

defenseone.com · by Sam Skove

13. We Argued About Admitting Ukraine to NATO in 2008. Now We Agree on It.

Excerpts:

In that case, Europe, the United States, and other friends of Ukraine should commit to supplying Ukraine with defense training, intelligence, and equipment — and to building its domestic defense industry — so that Ukraine can both deter any resumed Russian attack and defend itself against such an attack should deterrence fail. The model here is the U.S. commitment to Israel—a “qualitative military edge” and “the ability to defend itself by itself.” This, as in the case of Israel, would fall short of any commitment to put troops on the ground to help defend Ukraine.

In parallel, NATO must enhance its own defense capabilities to deter further Russian adventurism in Ukraine or elsewhere — and the Europeans in particular need not just to expand their defense budgets -for Germany this means that it should finally implement its commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense—but create real military capability that will deter Russia and defeat it if deterrence fails. This is crucial to maintaining peace in Europe. Freedom has to be better equipped than tyranny!

While refraining from offering a NATO membership track to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008, NATO offered Putin’s Russia a path for cooperation with NATO on the basis of the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997. Putin rejected this opportunity and chose the path of aggression.. Vladimir Putin bears personal responsibility for this war and for the death of thousands of Ukrainians, for the suffering of millions more, and for the economic hardship and uncertainty that has affected the whole world. His vision of empire must be stopped in Ukraine.

We Argued About Admitting Ukraine to NATO in 2008. Now We Agree on It.

By STEPHEN HADLEY and CHRISTOPH HEUSGEN

JUNE 3, 2023

defenseone.com · by Stephen Hadley

Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg (L) and President Volodymyr Zelenskyi (R) during a meeting on April 20, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Andriy Zhyhaylo / Obozrevatel / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

The authors—longtime senior U.S. and German national-security figures—describe how they concluded that alliance membership is a necessary step.

June 3, 2023 08:00 AM ET

We were at opposing ends at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008 when we disagreed on whether Ukraine was ready for membership. As a result, Ukraine was not offered a so-called Membership Action Plan. After 2008, and until President Putin’s 2014 attack on Ukraine, NATO never reverted to seriously discussing the vaguely expressed perspective at Bucharest that Ukraine would one day become a NATO member. The upcoming NATO summit at Vilnius is the right moment to make this perspective concrete. We agree now that NATO should establish a path that will help bring Ukraine closer to membership and pave the way for Ukraine to join NATO once Russia’s war against Ukraine has been successfully repelled.

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, we had some sympathy for the idea that Ukraine could be a bridge between Russia and the West—with economic relations with both the EU and Russia’s Eurasian Union, and a military posture that threatened no one, along the line of the former Finnish model. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 destroyed that idea, especially for Ukrainians. With its aggression, Russia brought about the very things that it later saw as compromising its security interests. It put NATO enlargement back on the agenda. And only then did NATO infrastructure start to move closer to Russia as a means of deterrence against further Russian military adventurism in Europe.

The last hope for Ukraine to become a bridge between East and West was reflected in the Minsk agreements but implementation foundered over Russian recalcitrance. It is wrong to claim that both sides were equally responsible for not implementing Minsk. It was Moscow that didn’t adhere to the ceasefire in the first place. It was Russia that didn’t withdraw its heavy weapons and its mercenaries from the occupied regions. It was Russia that did not allow the free movement of the OSCE observers. No wonder that the Rada in Kyiv—Ukraine’s parliament—was reluctant to adopt changes to the Ukrainian Constitution.

With its re-invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it became clear that Putin’s real agenda was to extinguish Ukrainian sovereignty and end its existence as an independent nation, incorporating it into a restored Russian empire that would include what Putin calls “historical Russian lands” embracing Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, the Baltic States, parts of Poland—and much more.

Putin’s imperialist vision threatens peace in Europe. And Ukraine is central to this vision — without Ukraine, there can be no restored Russian empire. For Russia and Russians themselves, a positive future is more likely if Putin’s imperialist ambitions fail.

The success of the projected Ukrainian counteroffensive is critical in thwarting this vision and forcing Putin to stand down from his invasion of Ukraine. If this leads to a peace negotiation, it could present Ukraine with the prospect of painful concession of Ukrainian territory to Russia. This would reward Putin’s invasion. And a Russian breach of the agreement and a resumption of its aggression at some future date cannot be ruled out given its poor record of respecting agreements.

To impose a strategic cost on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and to help deter any future resumption of the war, Ukrainian membership in NATO (as well as membership in the EU) should clearly be pursued in parallel with any negotiated agreement. Before its actual accession, Ukraine will have work to do to ready itself for membership including by further improving its governance and fighting corruption. The security guarantees of NATO membership will be crucial to attract investment and finance Ukraine recovery after the war. Vilnius will be the right moment to demonstrate transatlantic unity in this respect.

If the war ends without an agreement and in a stalemate—a “frozen” conflict with a “hot” line of control—NATO membership for Ukraine would have to remain on hold to prevent involving NATO in a direct conflict with Russia, risking a nuclear war.

In that case, Europe, the United States, and other friends of Ukraine should commit to supplying Ukraine with defense training, intelligence, and equipment — and to building its domestic defense industry — so that Ukraine can both deter any resumed Russian attack and defend itself against such an attack should deterrence fail. The model here is the U.S. commitment to Israel—a “qualitative military edge” and “the ability to defend itself by itself.” This, as in the case of Israel, would fall short of any commitment to put troops on the ground to help defend Ukraine.

In parallel, NATO must enhance its own defense capabilities to deter further Russian adventurism in Ukraine or elsewhere — and the Europeans in particular need not just to expand their defense budgets -for Germany this means that it should finally implement its commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense—but create real military capability that will deter Russia and defeat it if deterrence fails. This is crucial to maintaining peace in Europe. Freedom has to be better equipped than tyranny!

While refraining from offering a NATO membership track to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008, NATO offered Putin’s Russia a path for cooperation with NATO on the basis of the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997. Putin rejected this opportunity and chose the path of aggression.. Vladimir Putin bears personal responsibility for this war and for the death of thousands of Ukrainians, for the suffering of millions more, and for the economic hardship and uncertainty that has affected the whole world. His vision of empire must be stopped in Ukraine.

14. Taiwan’s Imported Wolf Warriors – OpEd

Excerpts:

Lee revealed that the foundation has spent millions in taxpayers’ money to have high-profile anti-China politicians visit Taiwan. To him, this has threatened the stability of the Taiwan Straits, and ordinary Taiwanese are very unhappy about it (https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSLNYDjLx/).

Liz Truss is not the only highly paid “wolf warrior” visiting Taipei.

An entire pack of wolves has appeared especially from the West to ‘protect’ Taiwanese from the new Yellow Peril associated with the rise of China and its challenge to western hegemony and dominance of the world order.

Taiwan’s imported wolf warriors – genus canis lupus occidentalis and canis lupus lupus primarily – have 4 distinct characteristics. They favour China as their prey, are seen as discredited politicians, and require large sums of money and other perks to leave their home territories to hunt elsewhere. Unlike their canine counterparts, these ‘political animals’ prefer to work alone so as to maximise the returns.

The importing paymaster, Prospect Foundation, is a think tank based in Taiwan. Established in 1997, its mission according to a wikipedia post, is to analyse the Cross-Taiwan-Strait relations and international politics and economy and provide suggestions of policies for Taiwan government.

Taiwan’s Imported Wolf Warriors – OpEd

eurasiareview.com · by Lim Teck Ghee · June 5, 2023

China’s State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu shared with a world audience what can be considered as the country’s definitive Taiwan policy position going forward. Speaking at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on 5 June he emphasised that the “one-China principle has become the consensus of the international community and the basic norm governing international relations” and that “any attempt to fudge and hollow out the one-China principle is absurd and dangerous.”

He also reiterated that China is willing to strive for peaceful reunification “with utmost sincerity” but will not renounce the use of force to “safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

Further he identified the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities’ attempts to seek independence and external forces’ interference in China’s internal affairs as the root cause of tensions across the Taiwan Straits.

A recent social media expose by Taiwanese journalist Andy Lee helps to identify some of the external forces. According to his Tik Tok presentation, “Taipeh journalist reveals truth about Liz Truss’s Taiwan trip”, Taiwan’s “Prospect Foundation” can be seen as the godfather behind the trip of UK’s shortest-serving and discredited prime minister, Liz Truss, to Taiwan.

Lee revealed that the foundation has spent millions in taxpayers’ money to have high-profile anti-China politicians visit Taiwan. To him, this has threatened the stability of the Taiwan Straits, and ordinary Taiwanese are very unhappy about it (https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSLNYDjLx/).

Liz Truss is not the only highly paid “wolf warrior” visiting Taipei.

An entire pack of wolves has appeared especially from the West to ‘protect’ Taiwanese from the new Yellow Peril associated with the rise of China and its challenge to western hegemony and dominance of the world order.

Taiwan’s imported wolf warriors – genus canis lupus occidentalis and canis lupus lupus primarily – have 4 distinct characteristics. They favour China as their prey, are seen as discredited politicians, and require large sums of money and other perks to leave their home territories to hunt elsewhere. Unlike their canine counterparts, these ‘political animals’ prefer to work alone so as to maximise the returns.

The importing paymaster, Prospect Foundation, is a think tank based in Taiwan. Established in 1997, its mission according to a wikipedia post, is to analyse the Cross-Taiwan-Strait relations and international politics and economy and provide suggestions of policies for Taiwan government.

Although some of the foundation’s financial resources are spent on collaborative activities with other regional think tanks, a considerable portion is used to bring prominent anti-China politicians to enjoy photo opportunities with the Taiwanese president and to deliver speeches and participate in events aimed at condemning China and furthering the case for the West to confront and bring down China.

How much money and perks is paid by the foundation to import foreign wolves to support the current Taiwanese government in its bid to seek independence from China and retain power in the country by villifying China is not public knowledge.

What is a fact is that these imported wolf warriors do not come cheap.

How much was Truss paid

Liz Truss has not provided information on how much she was paid for her private trip to Taiwan. According to the British newspaper Mirror, the former prime minister was paid £65,751.62 to attend a conference in India for just four hours on top of paid hotel, flights and expenses ( https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-earns-16500-per-29784243) This figure is twice the annual average salary in Britain! That engagement is one of the many speaking gigs Truss has been taking.

It is very likely that she was paid a much higher fee for her Taiwan trip – perhaps tens of million Taiwanese dollars. This is because the more fierce the attacks against China, the higher the fees that will be paid to the wolf warrior.

In Liz Truss case, she has called on ‘free’ nations to commit themselves to a ‘free’ Taiwan and to back it up with concrete measures. Specifically she called for an “economic Nato” to tackle Beijing. As a prominent war wolf, Truss has no scruples in advocating both military and non military policies with the latter aimed at damaging or destroying the economic livelihoods of ordinary people to ‘defend’ her version of ‘democracy and the world order’.

Described by Li Guanjie, a research fellow at the Shanghai International Studies University, as a “washed-out, second-rate politician”, Liz Truss, unfortunately for Prospect Foundation, has little credibility even in Britain’s anti China media.

She was most recently headlined as trying to avoid paying for US $15,000 worth of personal expenses incurred when she was foreign secretary in 2021. These expenses include bath robes which went missing and for which she has been criticised for being an accessory to grubbiness and greed.

An op-ed in the Global Times following her visit said the “provocative plan against China” was “somewhat ‘fashionable’ in the circles of obsolete politicians in the US and the West”. The opinion article submitted that Ms Truss has a “bad personal image in the UK” and described her visit to Taiwan as “egregious”. “It is not only a brutal interference in China’s internal affairs, but also digging holes for the UK. She can be called London’s ‘bad teammate’.”

Other Prominent Western Wolf Warriors

Other prominent wolf warriors have included former Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, and a relative newcomer to the anti China wolf pack, and US House speaker Nancy Pelosi. Their fees paid to them by Prospect Foundation and other Taiwanese sources is unknown.

Pelosi’s trip was an official one and is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer over US90 million in security costs alone.

In return for what has been described by critics as an opportunistic, unhelpful and war mongering visit, Pelosi was given Taiwan’s highest honour, The Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen who presented Pelosi with the award described her as “one of Taiwan’s most devoted friends” and treated her to lunch at the presidential palace with top Taiwanese tech executives. According to a Facebook post by the Taiwanese leader, they had “Pelosi’s favourite dark chocolate ice cream” for dessert. Tsai is probably expecting no less than the US Presidential Medal of Freedom for buttering up Pelosi and hitching Taiwan to the US wagon.

Tsai and Pelosi also shared a meal with Morris Chang, the founder and chairman of Taiwan’s biggest semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC, and “exchanged views on deepening Taiwan-U.S. relations,” Tsai said.

Perhaps Pelosi may have shared her apertif opinion during that conversation about plans that the US may have to destroy TSMC should reunification of China and Taiwan take place.

Prospect Foundation’s More Constructive Mission

Rather than spending Taiwanese taxpayers money on imported wolf warriors from the US, Britain, Australia and other US allies, Prospect Foundation should deploy its considerable resources in helping bring about the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with China. This more worthwhile objective to be explored with think tanks, and other key stakeholders from China and Southeast Asian nations, would also be much less expensive.

eurasiareview.com · by Lim Teck Ghee · June 5, 2023

15. Blinken says no Ukraine cease-fire without Russia’s withdrawal

Blinken says no Ukraine cease-fire without Russia’s withdrawal

militarytimes.com · by Susie Blann and Matthew Lee, Associated Press · June 2, 2023

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says there can be no cease-fire in the war in Ukraine unless it is part of a “just and lasting” peace deal that includes Russia’s military withdrawal. Blinken said Friday that “a ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place” and enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin to “rest, rearm, and re-attack” would not be “a just and lasting peace.” In a speech during a visit to Finland, Blinken said that Russia must also pay for part of Ukraine’s reconstruction and be held accountable for its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February last year.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday that a cease-fire in the war in Ukraine could not be declared unless it was part of a “just and lasting” peace deal that included Russia’s military withdrawal.

Blinken said that “a cease-fire that simply freezes current lines in place” and allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin “to consolidate control over the territory he has seized, and rest, rearm, and reattack — that is not a just and lasting peace.”

Russia must also pay a share of Ukraine’s reconstruction and be held accountable for launching its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, Blinken said in a speech during a visit to Finland, which recently joined NATO and shares a long border with Russia.

Allowing Moscow to keep the one-fifth of Ukrainian territory it had occupied would send the wrong message to Russia and to “other would-be aggressors around the world,” according to Blinken.

Russia, however, wants any talks to address Ukraine’s request to join NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed for the country’s membership in the Western military alliance that the Kremlin sees as a threat.

“Naturally, this (issue) will be one of the main irritants and potential problems for many, many years to come,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday.

Blinken said Washington was ready to support peace efforts by other countries, including recent overtures from China and Brazil. But any peace agreement must uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.

The United States is a leading Western ally and supplier of arms to Kyiv to help it push back against the Kremlin’s forces.

China, which says it is neutral and wants to serve as a mediator but has supported Moscow politically, on Friday urged countries to stop sending weapons to Ukraine.

In Kyiv, air defenses shot down more than 30 Russian cruise missiles and drones Friday in Moscow’s sixth air attack in six days, local officials said.

The Ukrainian capital was simultaneously attacked from different directions by Iranian-made Shahed drones and cruise missiles from the Caspian region, senior Kyiv official Serhii Popko wrote on Telegram.

A 68-year-old man and an 11-year-old child were wounded in the attack, with private houses, outbuildings and cars sustaining damage from falling debris, according to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office.

A recent spate of attacks on the capital has put strain on residents and tested the strength of Ukraine’s air defenses while Kyiv officials plot what they say is an upcoming counteroffensive to push back the Kremlin’s forces 15 months after their full-scale invasion. Kyiv was the target of drone and missile attacks on 17 days last month, including daylight attacks.

Moscow’s strategy could backfire, however, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

The air campaign aims to “degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but ... the Russian prioritization of Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions,” it said in an assessment late Thursday.

Ukrainian air defenses intercepted all 15 cruise missiles and 21 attack drones targeted at Kyiv on Thursday night, Ukraine’s chief of staff, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said.

Ukraine’s presidential office said Friday that at least four civilians were killed and 42 wounded over the previous 24 hours.

The Moscow-appointed governor of Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk province, Denis Pushilin, claimed Friday that three people had been killed and four wounded, including a 3-year-old-girl, by Ukrainian strikes on the region.

The previous day, Ukraine said a 9-year-old and her mother were killed in Kyiv by a Russian pre-dawn missile barrage.

Meanwhile, border regions of Russia once again came under fire from Ukraine. Recent cross-border raids have also rattled those regions of Russia and put the Kremlin on guard.

That could be a Ukrainian strategy to disperse Russian forces before a counteroffensive begins.

“Russian commanders now face an acute dilemma of whether to (strengthen) defenses in Russia’s border regions or reinforce their lines in occupied Ukraine,” the U.K. Ministry of Defense said Friday.

Air defense systems shot down “several Ukrainian drones” overnight Thursday in Russia’s southern Kursk region, which borders Ukraine, regional Gov. Roman Starovoit wrote on Telegram.

In the neighboring Bryansk region, which also borders Ukraine, regional Gov. Alexander Bogomaz said that Ukrainian forces shelled two villages on Friday morning. No casualties were reported.

Two drones also attacked energy facilities in Russia’s western Smolensk region, which borders Belarus, in the early hours of Friday, officials said.

___

Matthew Lee reported from Oslo, Norway. Karl Ritter contributed to this report from Stockholm.