Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:


1. "We'll start the war from right here."
--Brigadier General Theodore Roosevelt Jr., son of the former president, who landed with his troops in the wrong place on Utah Beach


2. "If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt, it is mine alone."
--General Dwight Eisenhower, future president, in a draft of remarks he'd made in case the invasion was a failure


3. "Hitler made only one big mistake when he built his Atlantic Wall. He forgot to put a roof on it."
--World War II U.S. paratrooper aphorism



1. South Korea and Japan Cement Bilateral Security Ties

2. US flies long-range B-1B bomber over Korean Peninsula in first live munitions drop in 7 years

3. South Korea ramps up DMZ security

4. South Korean group floats anti-North balloons over the border

5. Are We Anti-Kids? A Deep Dive Into South Korea's Plummeting Fertility Rate

6. Yoon says S. Korea will never overlook N. Korea's 'despicable' provocations

7. Defector group sends leaflets to Pyongyang; no signs of N.K. provocation detected

8. South Korea preps new antimissile weaponry to counter North’s arsenal

9. Hanwha begins fighter jet engine development, aiming for world's 7th self-sufficient nation

10. Putin 'highly appreciates' S. Korea's position not to directly supply weapons to Ukraine

11. Effectiveness of anti-NK leaflets called into question

12. Scrapped military agreement (Korea)

13. Hamas Has Reinvented Underground Warfare





1. South Korea and Japan Cement Bilateral Security Ties


I do not think we can stress the significance of this enough.

South Korea and Japan Cement Bilateral Security Ties

https://www.csis.org/analysis/south-korea-and-japan-cement-bilateral-security-ties

csis.org · by Commentary by Christopher B. Johnstone and Victor Cha Published June 4, 2024



Photo: CAROLINE CHIA/POOL/AFP/Getty Images

Remote Visualization

Almost unnoticed in the Western press, on June 1, 2024, South Korean defense minister Shin Won-sik and Japanese defense minister Kihara Minoru reached an agreement on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to normalize bilateral defense ties, which have been essentially on ice since 2018. Despite the usual focus on U.S.-China relations at the Shangri-La Dialogue, and the meeting between U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart, this announcement was easily the most significant outcome from the event.

In December 2018, tensions flared up between Japan and South Korea after an incident between the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) and the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN). Japan claimed that a South Korean naval destroyer had directed its fire-control radar at an MSDF patrol aircraft conducting a surveillance operation near the Korean Peninsula in the East Sea/Sea of Japan. The ROK Ministry of Defense denied Japan’s allegation, saying that it was not operating the fire-control radar but rather was tracking a distressed North Korean fishing boat at that time. Instead, the South Korean side accused the Japanese aircraft of making a dangerous low flyover of its navy vessel.

Despite the overall progress in Japan-ROK ties since last year, and the remarkable trilateral summit at Camp David last August, this issue has remained unresolved, and bilateral defense ties have remained frozen—until the meeting in Singapore. The subject of intense, quiet negotiations for months, the agreement is a breakthrough that further reinforces the new era in bilateral ties and the prospect that the improvement may prove to be lasting. In it, the two governments agreed to resume defense exchanges, including a regular dialogue at the vice minister level and high-level engagements between the SDF and the ROK military.

The deal between Seoul and Tokyo is significant for several reasons. First, it signals the growing strategic convergence between Tokyo and Seoul, in ways that go far beyond a common response to the North Korean threat—which has long been the primary basis for security cooperation between the two countries. The joint statement issued after the meeting includes this remarkable line: “The ministers shared the view that bilateral security cooperation between the ROK and Japan benefits the shared values and common strategic interests of the two countries, and is the foundation of Japan-ROK-U.S. security cooperation. It not only serves to deter the threat from North Korea but is indispensable to realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific” (authors’ translation). This language is the closest the two governments have come to a joint security declaration—a significant statement of common values and common purpose.

Second, the agreement affirms that the deepening networks of security cooperation across the region are organic—and not simply an artifact of U.S. policy. At a time when political uncertainty in the United States clouds the future of U.S. engagement in the region, Japan and South Korea have sent a powerful message that like-minded partners are coming together to uphold a rules-based liberal order—a “new convergence” around shared principles, as Secretary of Defense Austin put it in his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June.

Third, the deal established a framework that will create rules of engagement and reduce the risk of future mishaps between the two militaries, which often operate in close proximity to one another. Specifically, the two defense ministers agreed to improve radio communication procedures between naval vessels and aircraft to avert any misunderstanding about their intent when two countries have an unplanned encounter at sea. In addition, both sides agreed to adhere to the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a set of guidelines established by key countries in the region in 2014.

Fourth, the agreement came just six days after the China-Japan-ROK trilateral summit on May 26–27. The juxtaposition of these two events clearly shows that while the China-Japan-ROK trilateral summit called for lofty cooperation goals like a trilateral free trade agreement—which is unlikely anytime soon—cooperation among Japan, South Korea, and the United States is achieving concrete and practical outcomes at an accelerating pace.

Even as the defense ministers met in Singapore, bilateral and trilateral ties were advancing on other fronts. On May 31, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell hosted his Japanese and South Korean counterparts for an intimate retreat in rural Virginia, where they discussed a wide range of issues. Plans are afoot for another leaders’ meeting, perhaps on the margins of the NATO summit in Washington in July.

Finally, the defense agreement at Shangri-La and the trilateral meetings last week manifest a continued political commitment by both Japanese and South Korean leaders to stay the course despite domestic unpopularity at home. Neither Kishida nor Yoon win much praise for these policies, the latter having suffered a major midterm election defeat in April and the former on the ropes in the national polls. But the two leaders are pursuing policies in the national interest, which is the definition of leadership.

Events over the last year do not erase the long history of challenges in Japan–South Korea relations. Difficult issues remain, and different leaders in both countries could choose to reverse these gains in the pursuit of short-term political ends. But the strategic foundation for cooperation between the two countries has arguably never been broader or deeper, and each new agreement, each new step forward, raises the cost to future leaders of regression.

Christopher Johnstone is senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Victor Cha is senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at CSIS.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

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Christopher B. Johnstone

Senior Adviser and Japan Chair

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Victor Cha

Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair

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csis.org · by Commentary by Christopher B. Johnstone and Victor Cha Published June 4, 2024



2. US flies long-range B-1B bomber over Korean Peninsula in first live munitions drop in 7 years


Here is CNN's slightly hyperbolic video report on the training:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/world/video/us-south-korea-live-munitions-exercise-north-korea-trash-balloons-ripley-digvid-ebof


​Excerpt:


The B-1B carries the “largest conventional payload of both guided and unguided weapons in the US Air Force inventory and can rapidly deliver massive quantities of precision and non-precision weapons against any adversary, anywhere in the world, at any time,” the US military said.


This includes every inch of north Korea.


Nut people are worried about escalation and if Kim is preparing for sholtiles and war. The best way to stop the vicious ​provocation cycle is to not allow Kim Jong Un to get away with his dangerous hostile actions. There must be a decisive self-defense response if north Korea ​conducts kinetic attacks​ of any area or anything in South Korea. Kim Jong Un is smart enough to know that he cannot continue to attack in the face of a superior enemy and one that is willing to respond. Kim Jong Un does not want to escalate because his action will have brought the ROK/US alliance forces to a higher state of readiness which takes away his element of surprise and his freedom of action because allied forces will be on alert to respond. But he will continue to push the envelope to try to determine if and where there is a red line. Although I do not recommend declaring a red line, by initiating a decisive response to kinetic action Kim will determine that that is as far as he can go. Although of perhaps limited intelligence Kim Jong Un is likely smart enough to know that you never attack strength and again this is why so much of his strategy is about trying to weaken the ROK/US alliance.


US flies long-range B-1B bomber over Korean Peninsula in first live munitions drop in 7 years | CNN Politics

CNN · by Oren Liebermann, Gawon Bae · June 5, 2024


In this photo provided by the South Korea Defense Ministry, US Air Force B-1B bomber, left, and South Korean fighter jets F-15K fly over the Korean Peninsula during the joint aerial drills between South Korea and the United States on June 5.

South Korea Defense Ministry/AP

CNN —

The United States flew a B-1B bomber over the Korean Peninsula on Wednesday in the first live munitions drop over South Korea in seven years as part of joint air exercises between the two countries, the US and South Korea said Wednesday.

As part of the exercise, the US B-1B Lancer and two South Korean F-15K Eagles dropped precision 500-pound JDAMs (joint direct attack munitions), simultaneously striking multiple targets, the US said. The American bomber then flew with advanced South Korean F-35A and KF-16 fighter jets, as well as US fighters and tankers.

“This training showcases the incredible capabilities of our combined forces to simultaneously strike multiple targets in a contested environment,” said Lt. Gen. David Iverson, US Force Korea deputy commander and Seventh Air Force commander.

The exercise comes amid heightened tensions with North Korea after it sent hundreds of balloons carrying trash across the border to the South in recent days. North Korean leader ‘s sister and senior official Kim Yo Jong said the balloon were “strictly a responsive act” to South Korea’s years-long practice of sending balloons with anti-North Korea leaflets the other way.

The joint training on Wednesday marked the first time the B-1B has conducted “a live munitions drop” on the Korean Peninsula since 2017 to demonstrate its capability to “precisely strike deep target,” South Korea’s defense ministry said.

The B-1B carries the “largest conventional payload of both guided and unguided weapons in the US Air Force inventory and can rapidly deliver massive quantities of precision and non-precision weapons against any adversary, anywhere in the world, at any time,” the US military said.

CNN · by Oren Liebermann, Gawon Bae · June 5, 2024



3. South Korea ramps up DMZ security


Now would be a time to integrate US infantry troops on the DMZ with Korean forces.


My recommendation here: Revitalizing America's North Korea Policy

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/revitalizing-americas-north-korea-policy-207642

Return U.S. Troops to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)

North Korea has withdrawn from the Comprehensive Military Agreement of 2018 and is rebuilding the guard posts that it removed.

Until 1991, U.S. Army infantrymen conducted combat patrolling in an American sector surrounding the Joint Security Area. In 2024, the U.S. military should return to combat patrolling, but this time, it should support ROK forces throughout the entire DMZ. This will reduce stress on ROK forces, increase interoperability between ROK and U.S. forces, demonstrate commitment to the defense of the ROK, and improve morale by conducting missions that bring them eye to eye with the enemy. Rotating infantry battalions will conduct pre-mission training in the United States, spend three months preparing to conduct combat patrols on the DMZ, complete a three-month rotation with ROK forces, then three months of large-scale unit training, and then rotate back to the Homeland.



South Korea ramps up DMZ security

Newsweek · by John Feng · June 4, 2024

ByContributing Editor, Asia

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South Korea says all military activities are to resume near its heavily fortified border with the North after it fully suspended from a previous agreement over Pyongyang's "continuous provocations."

The decision was formalized on Tuesday by President Yoon Suk Yeol, after his cabinet in Seoul sought a meaningful response to North Korea's launching of hundreds to thousands of balloons carrying trash and propaganda across the border and its electronic attacks at the maritime boundary in their western seas.

"All responsibility for causing this situation lies with the North Korean regime," the South's Defense Ministry said, according to the Yonhap news agency. It vowed to take "all possible measures" to protect the country's citizens.

The inter-Korean pact, meant to reduce long-running tensions near the de facto border, known as the Military Demarcation Line, was signed in 2018 by Yoon's predecessor, then-President Moon Jae-in, during a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. North Korea's embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.

Among the understandings reached that September were no-fly zones near the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), in addition to the dismantling of guard posts and the removal of land mines. It also restricted military exercises in the area, creating a larger buffer zone to reduce the chance of accidental clashes.

In a series of escalations last fall, South Korea responded to the North's spy satellite launch by partially suspending the agreement to allow the resumption of reconnaissance flights near the DMZ.

North Korea then quit the 2018 pact altogether, and this week's events seemingly bringing to a close the fragile peace process of 2018 to 2019.

It is likely to raise the stakes on the Korean Peninsula for the United States, Seoul's longtime treaty ally, and for China, Pyongyang's neighbor and only formal defense treaty partner.

"As Kim Jong Un recently declared South Korea the North's 'principal enemy' and has formally abandoned hopes for peaceful unification, Yoon Suk Yeol surely sees no sense in adhering to an agreement that only ties Seoul's hands as regards defensive military exercises near the border," Sean King, senior vice president of the Park Strategies consultancy in New York, told Newsweek.

"Yoon's all in on Washington and Tokyo and has little to no patience for Pyongyang. South Korea flies leaflets over the border while the North sends poop. That about says it all," King said.


A North Korean soldier stands guard on the north side while U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visits the south side of the Panmunjom truce village on April 16 in the Korean Demilitarized... A North Korean soldier stands guard on the north side while U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visits the south side of the Panmunjom truce village on April 16 in the Korean Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas. South Korea says all military activities are to resume near its heavily fortified border with the North. JUNG YEON-JE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

"North Korea's continuous provocations not only greatly threaten the lives and safety of our people, but also seriously undermine peace on the Korean Peninsula," South Korea's Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said on Thursday. He referred also to last week's barrage of ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, which both Koreas call the East Sea.

Seoul's decision to suspend the 2018 agreement "enables us to take more sufficient and immediate action against North Korea's provocations," Yonhap quoted Han as saying. The South would consider returning to the pact only when "mutual trust between the South and the North is restored," he said.

Reached by Newsweek, the Pentagon declined to comment on South Korea's suspension of the inter-Korean agreement.

A spokesperson said: "The U.S. commitment to the alliance is ironclad. We have made this clear both through words and actions."



4. South Korean group floats anti-North balloons over the border


If you would like to contribute to this effort please go to the Defense Forum Foundation to make contributions for specific items to be sent to the Korean people in the north at this link: https://defenseforumfoundation.org/operation-truth/gift-catalog/gift-catalog.html?utm


South Korean group floats anti-North balloons over the border

They ignored the North’s warnings it would send more trash-filled balloons in response to such campaigns.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/skorea-balloons-06062024010039.html

By Taejun Kang for RFA

2024.06.06

Taipei, Taiwan


Park Sang-hak, a North Korean defector and leader of an anti-North Korea civic group, prepares to release a balloon containing leaflets denouncing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, near the demilitarized zone in Paju, South Korea, April 29, 2016.

 Reuters

South Korean activists flew large balloons carrying propaganda leaflets towards North Korea on Thursday, a few days after the North threatened to send more trash-filled balloons across the border in response to such campaigns.

The group, Fighters for a Free North Korea, led by North Korean defector Park Sang-hak, said it floated 10 balloons tied to 200,000 anti-Pyongyang leaflets, USB sticks with K-pop songs and South Korean television dramas, and one-dollar U.S. bills, from a border town.

“We sent the truth and love, medicines, one-dollar bills and songs. But a barbaric Kim Jong Un sent us filth and garbage and he hasn’t made a word of apology over that,” Park said in a statement, referring to North Korea’s leader and balloons the North sent over the South last week. 

“Our group, the Fighters for Free North Korea, will keep sending our leaflets, which are the letters of truth and freedom for our beloved North Korean compatriots.”

The group’s new balloon flights followed a South Korean announcement that it will resume all border military activities for the first time in more than five years, ending a 2018 inter-Korean military pact in response to the North sending trash-bearing balloons to South Korea and its jamming of GPS signals.

The South’s suspension of the pact could mean a resumption of South Korean propaganda broadcasts, blasted through giant speakers on the border into North Korea.

North Korea sent waves of trash-filled balloons into the South from last Thursday to Sunday in what it said was a tit-for-tat campaign against South Korean activists who sent balloons carrying propaganda material denouncing the North’s regime.

Separately, the North staged GPS jamming attacks in waters near South Korea’s northwestern border islands for the fifth straight day on Sunday.

The Fighters for Free North Korea last month sent 300,000 leaflets and 2,000 USBs containing K-pop music videos to the North suspended from 20 big balloons.

The balloons from the south infuriate the North and have long been another source of tension between the two Koreas, which are still technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

On Sunday, North Korea said it would temporarily suspend its cross-border balloon campaign, though it also threatened to resume it if anti-Pyongyang leaflets were sent from South Korea.

Edited by Mike Firn.


5. Are We Anti-Kids? A Deep Dive Into South Korea's Plummeting Fertility Rate


A national security issue for Korea.

Are We Anti-Kids? A Deep Dive Into South Korea's Plummeting Fertility Rate

worldcrunch.com · by Yu Meixia · June 5, 2024

SEOUL — A café owner served Minkyung a persimmon cake stuffed with soft cheese, a seasonal Korean favorite. The 40-year-old is a regular at the café, where she comes for the quietness and warm atmosphere. "Boss, have you ever heard of someone having a lot of kids to get government money?," Minkyung asks the owner and his wife behind the counter.

In 2023, South Korea's fertility rate fell to 0.72, well below one child per family, among the world’s lowest, and an all-time low for the industrialized Asian nation. To stimulate births, the government has increased subsidies for parents, but the decline persists.

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Her answer distills the thoughts of many Korean women — it's not children per se they resist, it's "having children."

Minkyung puts it this way: "With a child, there's a change of priorities in your life and a certain level of sacrifice … and I'm not sure that's acceptable for me."

Lower incomes, extreme life stress, and unaffordable housing have made low birth rates a common phenomenon in many developed countries.

But the change has been particularly drastic in South Korea. In just 60 years, from 1960 to 2020, South Korea's fertility rate has plummeted from 6 to 0.8. “In Korea," Minkyung noted, "you go shopping on the street and you won't see any little kids at all."

While the South Korean government was nervous and invested heavily in subsidies to boost births it was, unable to slow the decline. In March 2023, President Yoon Seok-yul declared that the low fertility rate was a crucial issue for the country and that he wanted to find out why the stimulus policy was failing.

Scholars and demographers have been alarmed by the changes in South Korea. The Center for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington estimates that South Korea's population will halve to 26.8 million people in the year 2100.

No kids zone

Minkyung moved to the Los Angeles in 2010 for her master's degree, and five years later returned to her home country, where she now works as a video artist whose work centers around the themes of female identity and desire.

Talking about children, Minkyung remembers her African dance teacher sharing about life back home. The teacher talked about how in the local villages, everyone knows each other, and the children live their lives freely among each other. If parents were not available to watch their children, the neighbors would take the children out to play.

Negative attitudes toward children have increased.

But in Korea, it's the opposite. Some of her friends who have had children tell her that they are afraid to take their young children out at all, sending them to daycare centers and hiding them in separate, isolated spaces in a building because the parents feel unsupported by society.

"There is definitely a culture in Korea where children are not welcome in society," she said.

In 2012, a restaurant customer accidentally scalded a child, the mother criticized the restaurant on the Internet, and the restaurant owner was later fined. But the public blamed the incident on the mother's failure to watch over her child. Since then, negative attitudes toward children have increased — restaurants and other public places have set up "no kids zones," where children are literally not allowed to enter.

Waiting for the metro in Seoul

Jason Oh

Social exclusion

Although the National Human Rights Commission of Korea ruled in 2017 that no kids zones violated the right to equality, the phenomenon has not stopped. In 2022, a poll by the Korea Research Center showed that 73% of respondents supported the establishment of no kids zones. According to estimates by the think tank Je Institute, there are about 500 no kids zones in South Korea.

"It's very difficult to have a social life with children, and you become an object of hate," Li Jiaxian, a 32-year-old sex education lecturer who visits elementary and middle schools from time to time to teach gender lessons to students.

On NATE, a South Korean online discussion forum, one female college student posted a message: "I hate children so much," which received thousands of likes.

What women really need is maternity leave and the right not to be fired from their jobs after giving birth.

Today's society puts limits on children, but mothers endure the same fate. Li Jiaxian says that the "no kids zone" is also a "no mother zone," prohibiting not only children, but also mothers who are exhausted from taking care of their children and want to take a break.

In May 2023, Yong Hye-in, a 33-year-old South Korean legislator, brought her two-year-old son to the National Assembly to speak about her commitment to repealing no-mother zones. Two years earlier, she had just given birth to a baby and was suffering from postpartum depression. When she tried to go to a coffee shop with her family to take a break, she was refused entry.

Workplace stress

Because of their children, South Korean mothers need to accept certain corners of society where they are unwelcome, while also being bound by older social norms and family expectations.

Still what really worries young mothers is that childbearing will be a burden on them in the labor market, notes Kim Hye-mi, a 29-year-old politician. Not having children? "It feels like air," Kim says with a light nod of her head. Over the past decade or so, the government has spent a lot of money subsidizing women to have and raise children, "But what women really need is maternity leave and the right not to be fired from their jobs after giving birth."

On April 9, Statistics Korea released data showing that the number of women in the workplace reached 9,976,000 in 2023, a record high since the statistics were compiled. However, the gender pay gap in Korea is still as high as 31.2%, ranking first among OECD member countries for the 26th consecutive year and 2.6 times higher than the average of 12.1%.

Graduating in Seoul, South Korea

Stephanie Hau

Juggling work and family

Women's fear of losing their jobs begins the moment they are interviewed. Kim Hye-mi said that even now, women are still being asked "Do you plan to have children?" and "Do you plan to go abroad?".

Although Korean law states that if a female employee is fired for being married and pregnant, the employer can face five years in prison or a fine of up to 36 million won ($26,460) in fines. But Kim Hye-mi points out that even when women who have been discriminated against have filed complaints with the Human Rights Commission or even the courts, they still haven't received a fair verdict. In 2017, four executives at KB Kookmin Bank, one of South Korea's top three banks, were charged with violating the Equal Employment Act for deliberately changing the scores of 112 female applicants to a lower score — but in the end, they were only fined $4,500 by the court.

Li Jiaxian pointed out that society is putting the responsibility of care only on mothers, who have to manage the pulls of both the family and workplace.

"How is it possible for women to juggle work and family at the same time when they only have one body?" Kim Hye-mi asks.

As a result, South Korean women's labor force participation rate peaks at nearly 80% between the ages of 25 and 29, but drops after 30. Men, on the other hand, have had a labor participation rate of over 90% from age 30 until age 54. It is worth noting that Korean women between the ages of 25 and 34 are the most educated cohort among OECD countries, but in the end, between the workplace and the family, they find it impossible to juggle the two, so they give up childbearing.

Maternity leave reform

Increasingly, South Korean women are choosing to remain single, and more than half of South Korean women under the age of 40 are single, according to 2021 data from Statistics Korea. For the first time ever, there are more single people than married people.

The same is true for men. 50.8 percent of Korean men under the age of 40 are single, and when asked why they don't want to get married, many say it's for economic reasons — to buy a house in Seoul, one of the world's most expensive real estate markets, a man must work for 18.5 years without spending any money, according to the Korea Economic Research Institute.

The childcare subsidy of $700 a month is very low, with the cost of childcare alone close to $1,000.

For Martin, 37, who works for a large corporation in South Korea, buying a home and raising a child is also a difficult task. He earns $5,700 a month and his wife earns $3,400, for a total monthly income of $9,100. "It's not a small income, but it's a tough situation with a baby," Martin said.

He calculates that he has to pay a monthly installment of $3,600 to buy a house in Seoul, and the childcare subsidy of $700 a month is very low, with the cost of childcare alone is close to $1,000.

South Korea needs a clear set of fertility policy measures, experts say, from maternity leave to workplace support, to an educational support system for women returning to work.

Japan, whose fertility rate is also lower than 1.4, provides a wealth of policy support to balance women's work and childcare, and offers public resources such as free state nurseries, after-school care, and preschool education.

Kim Hye-mi stresses that a society in which no children are born is an unsustainable society, and she believes that government officials should focus on policies that have a real impact on women.

However, even if South Korea achieves 100% of its fertility policy objectives, it may not be able to overcome the trend of low fertility rates in the short term. From economic development to social norms to gender inequality, the current low fertility rate is a result of various structural factors that have accumulated over the years. Even with comprehensive policy reforms, it will be difficult for South Korea's fertility rate to recover to the level of more than 30 years ago in the short term.

worldcrunch.com · by Yu Meixia · June 5, 2024


6. Yoon says S. Korea will never overlook N. Korea's 'despicable' provocations


(LEAD) Yoon says S. Korea will never overlook N. Korea's 'despicable' provocations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · June 6, 2024

(ATTN: CHANGES headline; UPDATES with more info in last 10 paras, photo)

By Kim Eun-jung and Yi Wonju

SEOUL, June 6 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol said Thursday South Korea will not sit idle against North Korea's "despicable" provocations and vowed to protect people through robust military readiness and a strong alliance with the United States.

Yoon made the remark during a Memorial Day speech at Seoul National Cemetery amid high tensions after South Korea fully suspended a 2018 inter-Korean tension reduction pact in response to the North's sending of balloons filled with trash across the border last week.

"North Korea -- after firing artillery shells into the West Sea and launching missiles -- recently carried out a despicable provocation that would make any normal country ashamed of itself," Yoon said. "The government will never overlook the threat from North Korea."

To deter the North Korean threats, Yoon vowed to bolster the alliance with the U.S. and enhance cooperation with the international community.

"We will maintain an ironclad readiness posture and respond to provocations resolutely and overwhelmingly," Yoon said. "Building upon the more robust ROK-U.S. alliance and cooperation with the international community, we will firmly safeguard our people's freedom and safety."


President Yoon Suk Yeol (2nd from L) and first lady Kim Keon-hee (3rd from L) salute the national flag during a commemorative event for Memorial Day at the Seoul National Cemetery on June 6, 2024. (Yonhap)

Yoon criticized the North Korean regime for refusing to "accept the progress of history" and instead remaining on a "backward path, threatening our lives."

"The Republic of Korea has now become the brightest country in the world, while the land north of the Military Demarcation Line remains the darkest in the world," he said.

Referring to North Koreans as "our compatriots" living just "around 50 kilometers away from here," he noted their suffering from starvation with their freedom and human rights brutally deprived.

He stressed that "we will only be able to restore the North Korean people's freedom and human rights" by becoming a stronger country.

"Peace is maintained through strength, not through submission," he said.

Since last week, Pyongyang has sent nearly 1,000 balloons carrying trash to the South in what it called a "tit-for-tat" action against anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaigns by activists in Seoul.

It also attempted to jam GPS signals near the western sea border.

After the South Korean government on Sunday warned of "unendurable" measures, including resuming loudspeaker broadcasting, the North said it will temporarily halt dropping balloons across the border.

Yoon also vowed to take better care of the nation's heroes, saying the country will take full responsibility for the bereaved families no matter what happens.

Specifically, he announced plans to innovate welfare services for the patriots and veterans by improving medical care and expanding rehabilitation support.


President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a Memorial Day speech at Seoul National Cemetery in Seoul on June 6, 2024. (Yonhap)

ejkim@yna.co.kr

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · June 6, 2024


7. Defector group sends leaflets to Pyongyang; no signs of N.K. provocation detected




(LEAD) Defector group sends leaflets to Pyongyang; no signs of N.K. provocation detected | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr


Yi Wonju

North Korea 14:15 June 06, 2024


(ATTN: RECASTS headline; ADDS more info in paras 3-5)

SEOUL, June 6 (Yonhap) — A North Korean defectors’ group said Thursday it has sent about 10 large plastic balloons carrying propaganda leaflets against the North Korean regime across the border, raising concerns Pyongyang could resume sending trash-filled balloons.

Filled with 200,000 flyers criticizing the regime, dollar bills and USB sticks loaded with K-pop and trot music, the balloons were floated from Pocheon, north of Seoul, early Thursday, according to Park Sang-hak, head of the Fighters for a Free North Korea (FFNK).

A military source confirmed that some of these balloons have flown into the North but said no signs of retaliatory action were detected yet from the North Korean side, including any launch of ballistic missiles or release of balloons loaded with trash.

The military is also closely monitoring the North for signs of provocations, a Joint Chiefs of Staff official said.

A unification ministry official said the ministry is maintaining close communication with the relevant agencies and “doing its best to manage the situation.”

Since last week, Pyongyang has sent nearly 1,000 balloons carrying trash to the South in what it called a “tit-for-tat” action against such anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaigns.

After the South Korean government on Sunday warned of “unendurable” measures, including resuming loudspeaker broadcasting, the North said it will temporarily halt dropping balloons across the border.

North Korea, however, also warned it will send “a hundred times the amount of toilet paper and filth” of what the South sends, raising concerns the reclusive country could start the waste-filled campaign again.

The FFNK has sent balloons carrying similar goods across the border although such acts are banned in South Korea under a law that was legislated during the previous administration to help reduce tensions in the border regions.

This image by Yonhap News Agency shows trash-filled balloons sent by North Korea into the South. (Yonhap)

This image, provided by Fighters for a Free North Korea on June 6, 2024, shows Park Sang-hak, head of the Fighters for a Free North Korea, before he floats balloons filled with flyers criticizing the regime, dollar bills and USB sticks loaded with music. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

Keywords

#NK leaflet #defector group


(LEAD) Defector group sends leaflets to Pyongyang; no signs of N.K. provocation detected



en.yna.co.kr


8. South Korea preps new antimissile weaponry to counter North’s arsenal


South Korea preps new antimissile weaponry to counter North’s arsenal

Defense News · by Gordon Arthur · June 5, 2024

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — Threatened by Pyongyang’s burgeoning stocks and varieties of ballistic missiles and rockets, South Korea is moving forward with a key class of interceptor weaponry.

Defense officials have completed development of the long-range L-SAM air defense system, moving on to the more advanced L-SAM-II.

Late last month, Korea’s Defense Acquisition and Program Administration, or DAPA, announced it was wrapping up development of the L-SAM. After contractor LIG Nex1 began work on the program in 2014, officials now deem the technology suitable for combat.

“The L-SAM research and development project is currently being finalized, with the goal of completing system development at the end of this year,” a DAPA statement reads. This paves the way for production to commence ahead of fielding “in the late 2020s,” according to the agency.

A terminal-stage, upper-tier defense system, the L-SAM system is meant to to intercept targets at altitudes of 31-37 miles (50-60km). Fired from a truck-and-trailer launcher, it utilizes two missile types to shoot down aircraft and ballistic missiles, respectively.

RELATED


South Korean military paves way for robotic vehicles in its ranks

Defense companies Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Aerospace are jockeying for position in what promises to become a milestone acquisition program.

The new capability will play a key role in the Korea Air and Missile Defense protective umbrella that currently relies on the shorter-range M-SAM system, the U.S.-made Patriot suite and the U.S. Army’s Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), with the latter deployed in Korea since 2017.

Meanwhile, a next-generation weapon capable of knocking out aerial targets even higher and farther away is already in the works. A meeting by the Defense Acquisition Program Promotion Committee on May 29 approved a basic development plan for the L-SAM-II. Given the risk posed by North Korean Kim Jong-un’s missile programs, Seoul has accelerated its completion deadline by two years, to 2032.

Following feasibility studies approved last year, the L-SAM-II’s development will now receive a 1 trillion-won budget, or around $730 million.

The enhanced missile “uses a high-altitude interceptor with an increased interception altitude compared to the existing L-SAM,” the agency explained.

The L-SAM-II’s enhanced range – some three times that of its predecessor, at around 93 miles (150km) – will enhance South Korean multilayered air defenses. The L-SAM-II will boast two missile types – a high-altitude interceptor, and a glide-phase interceptor optimized to intercept hypersonic glide vehicles.

At the same May 29 meeting, DAPA approved development of M-SAM Block III medium-range air defense missiles, with interceptors and radar upgraded to counter hypersonic threats.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already ordered the M-SAM Block II under $3.2 billion and $3.5 billion contracts, respectively, opening the Middle East market for prospective L-SAM deals as well.

The sales underscore the M-SAM’s popularity, placing it alongside K9 artillery pieces as being among South Korea’s most successful defense products for export.

South Korea hopes to attain cumulative defense sales of $20 billion this year.

About Gordon Arthur

Gordon Arthur is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. After a 20-year stint working in Hong Kong, he now resides in New Zealand. He has attended military exercises and defense exhibitions in about 20 countries around the Asia-Pacific region.


9. Hanwha begins fighter jet engine development, aiming for world's 7th self-sufficient nation


Hanwha begins fighter jet engine development, aiming for world's 7th self-sufficient nation

https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2024/06/06/M6M5NF6JBNEPFERTHRSE5T44RQ/

By Kim Ja-ah,

Kim Mi-geon

Published 2024.06.06. 09:06

Updated 2024.06.06. 13:30




The new aircraft engine being developed by Hanwha Aerospace is expected to be used in the KF-21, South Korea's first domestically-produced fighter jet, which is scheduled to be deployed by the ROKAF in 2026, according to the Financial Times. The photo shows the KF-21 flying in formation with a Phantom. /Courtesy of Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF)

Major international media outlets like the Financial Times and Reuters are highlighting the development of South Korea’s only aircraft engine manufacturer, Hanwha Aerospace, as it moves into developing cutting-edge fighter jet engines after exporting successful self-propelled artillery. Major Western corporations currently dominate the majority of the aviation engine market; should Hanwha be successful, this will lead to the production of the first aircraft engine made in South Korea.

The Financial Times reported on June. 2. (local time) that “Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defense company, has partnered with the government to develop fighter jet engines. The objective of this endeavor is to improve the defense value chain in Korea and enhance self-sufficient military capabilities.”

The report added that Hanwha Aerospace aims to finish developing cutting-edge engines by 2036, describing the company as a major parts supplier for the dominators of the global aircraft engine market: General Electric, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce. The Financial Times also noted that these engines are expected to be used in upgraded versions of the country’s first homegrown fighter jet, the KF-21, which Korea Aerospace Industries plans to mass produce in the second half of 2026.

Hanwha Aerospace is the only business in South Korea that has the capacity to collaborate on the development of aviation engines with major international corporations like P&W through RRSP (Risk & Revenue Sharing Partnership). Few businesses, including Germany’s MTU and Japan’s IHI, have similar alliances with global corporations.

Meanwhile, only six nations are currently able to manufacture the engines needed for the newest fighter jets: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, Ukraine, and China.

“Before it is too late, we should develop our own aircraft engines for both economic and long-term national security reasons,” said Lee Kwang-min, head of aero systems at Hanwha Aerospace, in an interview with the Financial Times. “We must consider self-reliant defense and economic benefits.” He added, “It is highly doubtful that we can catch up to industry leaders, but if we don’t even try, we will never be successful.”



10. Putin 'highly appreciates' S. Korea's position not to directly supply weapons to Ukraine


Putin 'highly appreciates' S. Korea's position not to directly supply weapons to Ukraine | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by CHANG JAE SUN · June 6, 2024

MOSCOW, June 6 (Yonhap) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he highly appreciates South Korea's position not to directly supply weapons to Ukraine, and that Moscow is ready to restore relations with Seoul.


This photo provided by TASS shows Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with top executives of the world's leading foreign media groups on the sidelines of the 2024 St Petersburg International Economic Forum at the Lakhta Centre on June 5. (Yonhap)

Putin made the remark during a meeting with representatives of leading international news agencies, including Yonhap News Agency, which was held on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

The remark drew attention in that Putin, who began his fifth term as president last month, showed a positive attitude toward South Korea and openly talked about the possibility of improving relations with Seoul.

Relations between the two countries have chilled since Seoul joined a U.S.-led move to impose sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has since labeled South Korea as one of the unfriendly nations.

"Just like in our relations with Italy, we do not see any Russophobic stance when working with the South Korean government. Neither are there any weapons supplies to the conflict zone. We highly appreciate that," Putin said.

Putin also said he is aware that the United States is approaching South Korea to look for weapons to send to Ukraine and he is watching the situation closely.

"Today, unfortunately, certain problems have been created in many areas of our cooperation, which is a pity ... But this is not our choice. It is the choice of the Korean leadership. The channel is open on our side, and we are ready," he said.

Putin also said that Moscow expects its relations with Seoul will preserve, at least partially, to be restored to the previous depth in the future, according to Russia's Sputnik news agency.

On North Korea, Putin reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening relations with Pyongyang.

"As for relations with North Korea ... our neighbors, we will develop relations, whether someone likes it or not," he said.

Relations between Pyongyang and Moscow have significantly strengthened since September's summit between Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Putin has been considering paying a reciprocal visit to the North.

Putin said the North Korean nuclear issue will be resolved when Pyongyang is no longer threatened.

"They are being threatened, and they respond. Without threats, I think, the nuclear issue will gradually be resolved. But they are facing threats all the time. What else can they do?" Putin said, according to TASS news agency.

Wednesday's meeting with international news agencies, organized by TASS, took place for the first time since 2021, when the meeting was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Representatives of 16 international news agencies took part in the meeting, including Park Sang-hyun, executive director of digital media at Yonhap News Agency. Other news agencies included the Associated Press, AFP, Reuters, Germany's DPA, Japan's Kyodo, China's Xinhua and Iran's IRNA.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by CHANG JAE SUN · June 6, 2024



11. Effectiveness of anti-NK leaflets called into question


I recommend George Hutchinson's work to see the effectiveness of leaflets.


Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA

George Hutchinson

Apr 26, 2022

https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Hutchinson_KPA_web_0426.pdf

We should not fear sending information to the north. Anyone who uses north Korean threats to oppose sending information into the north is actually supporting Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy - either deliberately or as a "useful idiot."


Effectiveness of anti-NK leaflets called into question

The Korea Times · June 6, 2024

Park Sang-hak, head of the Fighters for a Free North Korea, an activist group, poses before floating balloons filled with flyers criticizing North Korea, cash and USB drives loaded with K-pop music in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. Yonhap

Experts concerned about burgeoning leaflet war

By Kwak Yeon-soo

An activist group in South Korea said Thursday it had floated around 10 large balloons toward North Korea, prompting some experts to question the effectiveness of anti-North Korea propaganda leaflets.

The Fighters for a Free North Korea (FFNK), an activist group led by North Korean defector Park Sang-hak, said the balloons sent across the border were filled with 200,000 leaflets criticizing the reclusive country, cash and USB drives loaded with K-pop and trot music.

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, said anti-Pyongyang leaflets are not effective at all in bringing about change in North Korea.

“Although leafleting can provoke anger from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and authorities, it cannot change the mindsets of North Korean citizens and make them revolt against the reclusive regime,” Yang said.

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy at the Sejong Institute, said the impact of sending propaganda flyers to North Korea is limited.

“There are several North Korean defectors who say that the leaflets affected their decision to flee the country, but those cases are extremely rare. If the activists are truly concerned about North Korean citizens and want to help improve their human rights conditions, they should consider sending radios, not flyers with provocative content about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his wife,” Cheong said.

Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said though leafleting can be an effective means of helping North Koreans see the truth in a reclusive country, activist groups should refrain from sending propaganda leaflets in public.

“I don’t think the FFNK’s intentions are pure. They are attention seekers who are trying to raise money,” Cho said. “If they fly the balloons publicly, North Korean soldiers are dispatched to areas where the leaflets fall and they collect those, preventing people from coming in contact with the leaflets.”

North Korean soldiers are seen building a strongpoint in the Demilitarized Zone in this photo taken from a South Korean observation tower in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Tuesday. Yonhap

Experts believe sending propaganda leaflets will only enrage North Korea and result in worsening cross-border relations.

“The North will probably resume sending trash balloons like it warned it will to send ‘a hundred times the amount’ of what the South sends. It’s going to blame the South for worsening inter-Korean relations and justify its actions to come,” Yang said.

Cheong said Pyongyang will react strongly against Seoul.

“I think Kim Yo-jong will issue a statement soon. They could be contemplating on how to respond to the activist group’s actions” he said.

South Korea fully suspended the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement on Tuesday as a countermeasure to North Korea's trash balloon campaigns and jamming of GPS signals last week.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military is closely monitoring the North for signs of provocations, adding that no signs of retaliatory action have been detected as of 3 p.m. Thursday.

The Ministry of Unification said it will closely communicate with relevant agencies to manage the situation.

"We are handling the situation by taking into account the Constitutional Court's ruling that says the leaflet launches are an issue of guaranteeing freedom of expression," the ministry said in a statement.

The Korea Times · June 6, 2024


12. Scrapped military agreement (Korea)


Some good words but the fear of information going to the north is not helpful. Information is a critical component of any strategy dealing with Kim Jong Un and the north.


Excerpt:


These developments require South Korean military authorities to step up defense posture and preparedness. Strengthening the tight ROK-U.S. alliance and enhancing cooperative trilateral ties with the United States and Japan are crucial to deterring North Korean provocations. Diplomatic authorities should double down on efforts to fortify cooperation with U.N. member states to ramp up international pressure on the North. Despite current tensions, diplomatic approaches and dialogue remain essential to easing the situation on the peninsula.



Scrapped military agreement

The Korea Times · June 5, 2024

Prudent steps needed to prevent abrupt conflicts

South Korea has suspended the entirety of the 2018 military agreement with North Korea, paving the way for the resumption of military operations in border areas. President Yoon Suk Yeol approved a proposal to terminate the inter-Korean pact during a Cabinet meeting presided over by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo on Tuesday, the presidential office said.

Han said North Korea's ballistic missile launches violate United Nations Security Council resolutions, and its release of trash-filled balloons also infringes upon the Korean Armistice Agreement. "We decided to suspend the entirety of the Sept. 19 military agreement until mutual trust between the South and North is restored," he said.

The decision comes in response to a series of provocations by North Korea, escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, despite repeated warnings from the South. The agreement, initially signed in 2018 following an inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, aimed to suspend hostile activities on land, sea and air to prevent military conflicts.

However, since February 2019, following the collapse of the much-touted North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, North Korea has repeatedly violated the agreement, building up missile and nuclear capabilities. For starters, the North fired salvos in non-combat areas near the maritime Northern Limit Line (NLL) and infiltrated drones into South Korean territory.

Last November, the North declared it would scrap the military pact in retaliation against the South's response to its launch of military surveillance satellites. As a follow-up measure, the North reinstated front-line guard posts, practically nullifying the agreement. In this vein, North Korea cannot deflect criticism for having invalidated the pact, as any agreement requires adherence by both parties.

North Korea's recent release of filth-laden balloons and GPS jamming offensives are despicable provocations that cannot be tolerated. Suspending the military agreement will enable the South to take appropriate measures against possible North Korean military provocations. North Korea must assume accountability for the recent escalation of tensions.

South Korea is also considering resuming loudspeaker broadcasts as part of psychological warfare tactics, though it has said it would not do so in the immediate future. It is worrying that the suspension of the accord will prompt potential military conflicts between the two Koreas. North Korea is likely to attempt military maneuvers, especially in vulnerable areas near the NLL and the Military Demarcation Line separating the two Koreas, reminiscent of actions before the agreement.

These developments require South Korean military authorities to step up defense posture and preparedness. Strengthening the tight ROK-U.S. alliance and enhancing cooperative trilateral ties with the United States and Japan are crucial to deterring North Korean provocations. Diplomatic authorities should double down on efforts to fortify cooperation with U.N. member states to ramp up international pressure on the North. Despite current tensions, diplomatic approaches and dialogue remain essential to easing the situation on the peninsula.

A group of activist organizations mainly comprising North Korean defectors threatens to resume releasing balloons containing anti-Pyongyang materials. This raises concerns over expanded low-intensify warfare. The South Korean government, responsible for public safety, should take steps to prevent such actions from causing severe security threats.

While advocating for freedom of speech, the government should urge the activists to refrain from excessive propaganda activities. It also needs to call on the North to come to the dialogue table to discuss ways to prevent tensions from escalating further.

Seoul's suspension of the 2018 military agreement with North Korea marks a significant juncture in inter-Korean relations. Prudent steps are necessary to prevent abrupt conflicts and maintain stability. South Korea should take a balanced approach of enhanced defense measures and proactive diplomatic efforts and navigate these challenges while striving for long-term peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.

The Korea Times · June 5, 2024




13. Hamas Has Reinvented Underground Warfare



At least a recognition of north Korea and tunnels.


Excerpt:


But in Gaza, many of the tunnels exposed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) resemble underground structures found in Iran and North Korea in terms of their size, depth, and method of construction.



But on specific mention of the assistance provided by north Korea to Hamas (and Hezbollah, and Syria, and Iran and others).


No mention of the 5,000 underground facilities in north Korea.


No mention of the north Korean concept of "tunnel living" when they put the nKPA on alert and move troops and civilians to tunnels in preparation for war.


No mention of the north Korean use of tunnels for deception and that we got duped into "inspecting" an empty tunnel during the Perry Policy review in 1999.


Yes, my bias is showing through.



Hamas Has Reinvented Underground Warfare

The Group’s Gaza Tunnels Will Inspire Others

By Daphné Richemond-Barak

June 6, 2024

Foreign Affairs · by Daphné Richemond-Barak · June 6, 2024

When Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, it dragged Israel into one of the worst underground wars ever. By now it is abundantly clear that the scale of Hamas’s subterranean complex is unprecedented and that the use of tunnels has contributed to casualties among civilians and soldiers. More consequentially, by sustaining underground operations over months, Hamas has delayed an Israeli victory, causing unimaginable diplomatic and political costs along the way.

In terms of tunnel warfare, the only war that compares is World War I, where countless British and German soldiers died trying to expose, mine, and dig tunnels. No other use of tunnels in warfare comes close—neither the entrenchment of Osama bin Laden in the mountains of Afghanistan that enabled him to evade U.S. forces and plan attacks undetected; nor that of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Mali, where tunnels were used in launching attacks from nearly impregnable underground hideouts; nor that of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS), which used tunnels to conduct attacks on U.S.-led multinational forces in Iraq and Syria. Hamas’s use of tunnels is so advanced that it more closely resembles how states use underground structures to protect command-and-control centers than what is typical for nonstate actors.

Hamas’s buildup of below-ground capabilities has shaken Israel’s assessment of subterranean threats. Israel never imagined becoming embroiled in an underground war of such proportions. If anything, Israel had been focused on eliminating the Hamas tunnels that cross into Israeli territory. The war in the Gaza Strip will likely spur the development of new doctrine and new methods to deal with this unique type of war. Hamas’s tunnel system has no doubt caught the attention of other militaries and nonstate actors, all of which are noting how effective they have been for Hamas’s survival in Gaza.

Now that Hamas has overcome most of the hurdles inherent to underground warfare—communication, navigation, low oxygen levels, and claustrophobia, among others—there is every reason to believe that the tactic will continue to spread. Hamas’s innovative use of the underground has redefined the strategic value of the surface, altered military encounters, and transformed the use human shields.

OUT OF REACH

Surviving underground for long periods is no small feat, as the hundreds of Ukrainian fighters who lived in the tunnels beneath the Azovstal steel plant during a Russian onslaught on Mariupol in 2022 could report. Those forces quickly ran out of food and drinking water. They lacked the most basic sanitary and medical arrangements, not to mention internet connection and the ability to maintain communication with the outside world. In Gaza, none of this has been an issue for Hamas. The people living and fighting in the Azovstal tunnels could not survive for more than two months underground, but Hamas has maintained a subterranean military presence for almost eight months. Hamas owes this record-breaking performance to a long maze of underground passageways spanning Gaza that includes fully outfitted kitchens, furnished command rooms, sophisticated data centers, tiled bathrooms, fenced detention cells, and designated work areas.

Hamas seems unfettered by geological constraints, engineering and planning difficulties, or the fear of survivability. The group has had plenty of time to sharpen its skills, experiment, and improve; decades of digging at the Egyptian border, inside Gaza, and into Israeli territory certainly helped. A tunnel exposed near the border crossing between Gaza and Israel, known as the Erez crossing, was almost 10 feet wide and 164 feet deep. It was dug using civilian boring equipment, a first for Hamas.

Even the best digging skills, however, do not prepare fighters for prolonged stays underground. The conditions are harsh, oxygen is scarce, and communication with the outside world is limited. Hamas has shown that years of training and careful planning can help overcome these hurdles. Hamas’s tunnels include sleeping quarters, meeting rooms, and other underground structures, equipped with ventilation, electricity, toilets and washrooms, plumbing, and primitive yet effective communication networks. As the infrastructure improved, the downsides of living in and operating from the underground diminished. Massive stocks of fuel, food, and water inside the tunnels made it possible to live and conduct military operations underground. Extensive underground weapon-production facilities ensured that weapon supply and distribution would continue uninterrupted.

Israel underestimated the strategic ramifications of tunnel warfare.

Tunnel users everywhere are known to exit tunnels to restock, breathe fresh air, and communicate with the outside world, but Hamas leadership has barely been seen above ground. In April, reports surfaced that Hamas’s chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, had visited his forces aboveground, but only briefly. It is not clear how often Hamas fighters have exited the tunnels to resupply or recuperate. What is clear, however, is that Hamas has been able to direct military operations without interruption. Though it has suffered blows—particularly when Israeli strikes interrupt its communication systems—it has generally been able to ensure the continuation of the chain of command from its underground military base.

Hamas’s use of underground structures is more akin to how states, rather than nonstate actors, have traditionally used the underground. States rely on underground structures to house permanent and hard-to-reach bunkers capable of serving as command-and-control centers in times of crisis. These deeply buried facilities can host leaders, sustain weapon-production infrastructure, and ensure the continuation of the chain of command in an emergency. Canada, China, Iran, Israel, Russia, and the United States are known to possess these types of deeply buried facilities. They are larger, better equipped, more reinforced, and deeper than tunnels. Iran’s nuclear facilities are dug more than 300 feet into the ground (whereas most tunnels do not reach beyond 200 feet) and, as a result, are beyond the reach of even the most powerful weapons.

By contrast, terrorist groups have used tunnels mainly to shield themselves from surveillance technology and operate undetected. These rudimentary tunnels are used to hide and carry out surprise attacks. But in Gaza, many of the tunnels exposed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) resemble underground structures found in Iran and North Korea in terms of their size, depth, and method of construction. Their cemented arched ceiling has become a signature trait, with cement also used to build larger tunnel shafts. Compared with Hamas’s earlier tunnels, those dug in Egypt and Gaza in the late 1990s and even up to the 2010s, the engineering has significantly improved. Tunnels are now less prone to collapse, well lit, and much more livable.

Hamas has also increased its reliance on tunnels as part of its strategy, namely how it uses tunnels. It sees tunnel warfare as a long-term, strategic investment designed to ensure the survivability of its chain of command in war, not merely a tactic to counter Israel’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. Militaries cannot fight tactical tunnels as they fight strategic subterranean threats. Bunker-buster bombs, for example, will not be sufficient to destroy such deeper and robust structures. A shift toward a more strategic use of tunnels reflects a focus on survivability rather than underground combat.

WAIT-A-MOLE

The tunnels have shaped the operations in Gaza in countless ways—compromising the likelihood of a swift Israeli victory, slowing down the pace of operations, making the rescue of hostages more difficult, placing civilians in harm’s way, and complicating the military and political environments for Israel. But one aspect is often overlooked, and it bears consequences for future wars: Hamas’s subterranean strategy has diminished the importance of the surface.

Israeli journalist Ron Ben-Yishai has aptly described this new type of fighting as “a war carried out on two different levels.” In the initial stages of the war, the IDF sought to gain control of the surface to expose and eventually enter Hamas’s tunnels. But as its operation progressed, attention shifted to the passageways to and from the subsurface. The surface became just a conduit to reach underground tunnels and structures and ceased to be the focus of the fighting.

Enemy encounters and ground maneuvers changed as a result. Underground warfare is known to render the enemy invisible and out of reach. It is aptly and commonly described as a Whack-A-Mole game, where the enemy pops out of the ground in an endless hide-and-seek competition. In Gaza, however, the enemy disappeared almost entirely, swallowed into its immense subterranean complex. Whack-A-Mole became Wait-A-Mole. And since even waiting did not produce results, the Israeli military has had to use all sorts of subterfuges to extract Hamas fighters from underground.

This is not to say that Hamas fighters never emerge. They have fired deadly antitank missiles at Israeli troops and carried out other types of ambushes. But the way Hamas is operating shows that its use of tunnels has redefined not just the subterranean environment but also the value of and the nature of land combat. Encounters with the other side are less frequent, and like the tunnels themselves, they are difficult to detect. For example, invisible booby-traps near tunnel shafts indicate the presence of the enemy, but there is no enemy in sight, and when tunnels are finally penetrated, the enemy has moved to a different part of the tunnel network. The discovery of empty tunnels below the Al-Shifa hospital illustrates this vividly. In this environment, encounters do not occur naturally: they must be orchestrated.

If subterranean warfare has displaced land warfare in Gaza, it could happen elsewhere. Militaries must consider how to deal with the dwindling role of the surface when the enemy shifts from a tactical to a strategic use of the underground. The surface will continue to be relevant in war—at a minimum—in allowing access and control over underground structures and as the eventual location of most encounters. But these developments suggest that subterranean warfare might be best framed as a separate domain of war rather than as a mere subset of land warfare.

THE LIMITS OF TECHNOLOGY

Fighting in Gaza has also shown that advances in antitunnel technology have failed to deter groups such as Hamas from resorting to tunnel warfare. Israel arguably possesses the world’s most advanced antitunnel technology. Advanced detection and neutralization techniques were deployed to counter the threat of Hezbollah’s tunnels into Israel in 2018. Israel also trained special units in tunnel warfare, built subterranean training facilities, developed subterranean sensors to protect its borders, and mastered the difficult task of mapping tunnels by using drones. Between Operation Protective Edge in 2014, Israel’s last war in Gaza, and Hamas’s October 7 attack, the IDF significantly improved its capabilities in subterranean warfare, with a focus on training, equipment, and detection.

But Israel’s superior technology and advanced training did not discourage Hamas from investing significant time and human resources into building tunnels. At the same time, advances in technology led Israel to believe that it had quashed Hamas’s underground pursuits, even though the opposite was true. To put it in simple terms: as the technology improved, the digging intensified. Israel underestimated the strategic ramifications of tunnel warfare—a low-tech threat—when used on a grand scale and overestimated the ability of technology to counter it. It focused on the tactical aspects and on the cross-border tunnels, leaving Hamas free to develop subterranean capabilities of unprecedented proportions.

Making sense of this paradox is a key lesson from this war. Technology and military superiority cannot on their own stop the tunnel trend. Technology has failed both to deter subterranean threats and to counter them. Hamas is keenly aware that even the most sophisticated technology available will not be sufficient to counter such underground capabilities and therefore has deep confidence in the tactic. Hamas knew that its extensive tunnel network in Gaza would slow Israel’s response, diminish Israel’s competitive advantage, protect Hamas’s top leaders in Gaza, and inflict heavy civilian casualties. Low-tech warfare has paid off in Gaza, and it is a success that will boost tunnel warfare everywhere.

HUMAN SHIELDS 2.0

Hamas’s use of Israelis and foreign civilians as human shields is a significant and concerning innovation of the ongoing Gaza war. As is well known, Hamas took hundreds of hostages as part of its massive October 7 attack on Israel, many of whom are still being held in Gaza. These people are commonly referred to as hostages, but the reality is more complex than the word “hostage” suggests.

Hamas has innovated, first, by bringing innocent civilians inside the tunnels as human shields and, second, by using civilians from Israel and other countries as human shields—rather than Palestinian civilians. In contemporary warfare, human shielding refers to the act of placing civilians—typically one’s own civilians—in and around military targets with the aim of immunizing such targets from attack. The tactic, which is prohibited under international law, has sadly flourished in the context of urban warfare. Many terrorist groups, including Hamas in general and in the context of underground warfare in particular, have found it beneficial to hide behind their civilian population: Western militaries call off strikes when the harm expected to be caused to civilians becomes excessive to the military advantage anticipated from the strike. Placing civilians inside tunnels has had the intended effect of complicating rescue efforts, constraining military operations, and immunizing key military assets of Hamas. This use of hostages is a return to a classic yet prohibited tactic of war of using prisoners of war for force protection. During the American Civil War, both sides used prisoners as human shields, and the Germans used British prisoners of war as human shields during World War II.

The civilians taken captive and held incommunicado by Hamas are both hostages and human shields. This innovation in hostage-taking has enabled Hamas to maximize political and military aims far beyond its declared objective of obtaining the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. The taking of hostages has torn Israeli society apart and has led to the Israeli government conditioning victory upon unattainable and irreconcilable objectives. It has given Hamas power at the negotiating table and caused Israel’s allies to request concessions in return for the release of the hostages. It has also facilitated Hamas’s ruthless psychological war. Militaries must take note of these innovative uses of the underground, which can bring states to the brink of operational and political paralysis, so that they can anticipate how underground tactics might be used in future wars by their adversaries.

  • DAPHNÉ RICHEMOND-BARAK is an Assistant Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel and is affiliated with the Modern War Institute and the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfare at West Point.

Foreign Affairs · by Daphné Richemond-Barak · June 6, 2024





De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

mas Has Reinvented Underground Warfare


De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


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