|
We do not accept the premise that the attack of Hamas was directed by Israel, and we see the key being what Hezbollah will do as it is estimated that they, who have previously defeated the Israeli Army in Lebanon, will defeat Israel in Palestine. This is the opinion of Scott Ritter below in footnote two. In addition, we may have the intervention of Iran, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. And of course there is the potential of Iran shutting down of the Straits of Hormuz and Russia shutting down in Russia and their former provinces about half the world's oil supply if we include the Straits of Hormuz discussed in footnote two. This would bring down the entire world economy which is sitting on a notional value of derivatives of 618 trillion dollars. They say notional as they are not all in the money but if the derivative structure collapses the exposure will rise in the notional derivatives who become in the money. We compare this risk to the world GDP of 96.5 trillion dollars. Warren Buffett's concern with derivatives is not their present value but the value in a crisis which is why he moved to eliminate derivatives in the Swiss insurance company that he bought some years back though it would take 50 years. A 618 trillion dollar derivative crash could be our Baron Louis de Rothschld bank's collapse in Vienna which was the Creditanstalt that triggered the collapse of the German economy in 1931 raising the unemployment to 50% if we include the itinerant workers that made the National Socialist revolution successful. 50% unemployment seems to be the key variable for the west today. The US system in 1933 weathered the 25% unemployment. We are saying if the US and European unemployment rises to 50% their governmental systems will collapse. This is entirely possible as we sit just above the abyss.
Here are current comments by the Bank for International Settlements founded by Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht.
The sharp increases in gross market values contrasted with the stability seen in the notional value of outstanding derivatives. These sagged by only $14 trillion to $618 trillion at end-2022 after a small rebound the previous period, continuing the sawtooth pattern evident since at least 2016 (Graph 1.B).
https://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy2305.htm#graph1
| 
