63 HISD Campuses Enrolled at Less Than 50%

Last year, HISD decided to close 8 campuses and consolidate 4 others because of low enrollment. The most recent data shows it will need to close or consolidate many more.

HISD recently released its Campus Demographic Report for last year.  You may recall that we analyzed last year’s report at Baker in this report.  In that report, we found that 51 campuses were enrolled at less than 50% of their permanent building capacity.¹ We updated our report this week and found that the number of campuses enrolled at less than 50% had climbed to 63. Overall, the campus utilization rate fell to 74%.

Last year, HISD’s official enrollment dropped by about 8,000 students (176,731→168,812). However, because HISD enrollment increased in its off-campus programs, the enrollment on its campuses fell by about 10,000 students.

Fleming Middle School in the Fifth Ward was built in 1968 to house 1,040 students. Last year, its enrollment fell to 288. It is slated to be consolidated next year at nearby McReynolds Middle School at the Leland College Preparatory Campus.

It is important to note that HISD has 45 campuses where enrollment exceeds the permanent building capacity. Over 41,000 students attend a campus that is over capacity. At about half of those campuses, the enrollment exceeds the capacity even when temporary buildings are included. At 14 campuses, the enrollment exceeds 120% of permanent capacity.

However, there has been some relief at these campuses. Last year, there were 60 campuses over permanent capacity and 22 over 120%. Unfortunately, it appears that the relief was only accomplished by falling enrollment at those campuses.

There are a number of fascinating maps included in our report that show where enrollment is low, which campuses lost the most enrollment last year, and where HISD’s campuses are located with respect to the existing and the proposed flood maps.

HISD is in a perfect enrollment storm. Birth rates are falling. The exodus to the suburbs continues. International immigration has slowed to a trickle. Some immigrants have pulled their children out of school, fearing being swept up in ICE enforcement actions.

Perhaps most importantly, HISD faces stiff competition from alternatives. Our analysis suggests that over half of HISD’s enrollment loss in recent years came from parents opting for charter schools. The popularity of home schooling continues to rise. Texas’ new voucher program will add to the pressure. About 3,300 voucher recipients live within HISD’s boundaries. We do not know precisely how many of those are currently enrolled in an HISD school, but my guess is that it will prove to be most of them.

Closing schools is a painful, unpopular process. It is a significant disruption in the lives of the families affected and is a blow to neighborhoods that are already struggling. But there is no reason to expect these trends to reverse. A decade from now, HISD will almost certainly be a considerably smaller district than it is today. District leaders should begin planning for that reality now. Delaying closures and consolidations in the misplaced hope that enrollment will rebound will only waste resources that should be devoted to educating students and unnecessarily increase the burden on taxpayers.

It is time to bite the bullet.

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Note 1 – HISD has temporary buildings at many campuses with about 16,000 seats. However, I am ignoring those in these numbers.