Quotes of the Day:

"Those who lack the courage will always find a philosophy to justify it."

– Albert Camus

"Own only what you can always carry with you: know languages, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag. Use your memory! Use your memory! It is those bitter seeds alone which might sprout and grow someday.

– Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

"It is very nearly impossible, after all, to become an educated person in a country so distrustful of the independent mind."

– James Baldwin

1. Sister of North Korean leader Kim hints at resuming flying trash balloons toward South Korea

2. North Korea threatens to boost nuke capability in reaction to US-South Korea deterrence guidelines

3. #NORTHKOREA: Kim family Brother and Sister Act

4. North Korea's Kim sacks 'irresponsible' officials over new town project

5. Yoon vows efforts to prevent forced repatriation of N. Korean defectors

6. U.S. Indo-Pacific commander says S. Korea's acquisition of nuclear submarines could be considered in future: Yoon's office

7. Will S. Korea join AUKUS Pillar 2 in face of deepening Russia-NK ties?

8. N. Korean leader's sister bristles at anti-Pyongyang leaflets, vows strong response

9. S. Korea warns of end of N. Korean regime if Pyongyang uses nuclear weapons

10. Like-minded partners for Korea

11. Why the Tumen River border could test ties between China, Russia and North Korea

12. NATO ramps up pressure on China. What does it mean to South Korea?

1. Sister of North Korean leader Kim hints at resuming flying trash balloons toward South Korea

Sister of North Korean leader Kim hints at resuming flying trash balloons toward South Korea

The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to respond to what she called a fresh South Korean civilian leafleting campaign

By Hyung-Jin Kim | AP

July 14, 2024 at 3:56 a.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim | AP · July 14, 2024

SEOUL, South Korea — The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed Sunday to respond to what she called a fresh South Korean civilian leafleting campaign, signaling North Korea would soon resume flying trash-carrying balloons across the border.

Since late May, North Korea has floated numerous balloons carrying waste paper, scraps of cloth, cigarette butts and even manure toward South Korea on a series of late-night launch events, saying they were a tit-for-tat action against South Korean activists scattering political leaflets via their own balloons. No hazardous materials have been found. South Korea responded by suspending a 2018 tension-reduction deal with North Korea and resumed live-fire drills at border areas.

In a statement carried by state media, Kim Yo Jong said that “dirty leaflets and things of (the South Korean) scum” were found again in border and other areas in North Korea on Sunday morning.

“Despite the repeated warnings of (North Korea), the (South Korean) scum are not stopping this crude and dirty play,” she said.

“We have fully introduced our countermeasure in such situation. The (South Korean) clans will be tired from suffering a bitter embarrassment and must be ready for paying a very high price for their dirty play,” Kim Yo Jong said.

North Korea last sent rubbish-carrying balloons toward South Korea in late July. It wasn’t immediately known if, and from which activists’ group in South Korea, balloons were sent to North Korea recently. For years, groups led by North Korean defectors have floated huge balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets, USB sticks containing K-pop songs and South Korean drama, and U.S. dollar bills toward North Korea.

Experts say North Korea views such balloons campaigns as a grave provocation that can threaten its leadership because it bans official access to foreign news for most of its 26 million people.

On June 9, South Korea redeployed gigantic loudspeakers along the border for the first time in six years, and resumed anti-North Korean propaganda broadcasts.

South Korean officials say they don’t restrict activists from flying leaflets to North Korea, in line with a 2023 constitutional court ruling that struck down a contentious law criminalizing such leafleting, calling it a violation of free speech.

Kim Yo Jong’s statement came a day after North Korea’s Defense Ministry threatened to bolster its nuclear capability and make the U.S. and South Korea pay “an unimaginably harsh price” as it slammed its rivals’ new defense guidelines that it says reveal an intention to invade the North.

The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim | AP · July 14, 2024

2. North Korea threatens to boost nuke capability in reaction to US-South Korea deterrence guidelines

North Korea threatens to boost nuke capability in reaction to US-South Korea deterrence guidelines

North Korea has threatened to boost its nuclear fighting capability and make the United States and South Korea pay “an unimaginably harsh price” as it slams its rivals’ new defense guidelines that it says reveal an intention to invade the North

By Hyung-Jin Kim | AP

July 13, 2024 at 9:58 p.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim | AP · July 13, 2024

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea threatened Saturday to boost its nuclear fighting capability and make the United States and South Korea pay “an unimaginably harsh price” as it slammed its rivals’ new defense guidelines that it says reveal an intention to invade the North.

On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol authorized the signing of joint nuclear deterrence guidelines as part of efforts to enhance their capabilities to cope with North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal. The guidelines were adopted a year after the two countries established a consultation body to bolster information-sharing on nuclear operations and discuss how to integrate U.S. nuclear weapons and South Korean conventional weapons in contingencies.

In a statement carried by state media, North Korea’s Defense Ministry said the U.S.-South Korea guidelines betrayed “their sinister intention to step up their preparations for a nuclear war against” North Korea.

The statement said its enemies’ escalating nuclear threats urgently require North Korea to further improve its nuclear deterrent readiness and add unspecified “important elements to the composition of the deterrent.” It said the U.S. and South Korea will “pay an unimaginably harsh price” if they fail to stop provocative acts.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry on Sunday called North Korea’s statement “sophistry,” saying the guidelines would not have been needed if there were no North Korean nuclear threats. The South Korean Defense Ministry warned in a statement that any attempt by North Korea to use nuclear weapons will invite an overwhelming response by the South Korean-U.S. alliance and result in the end of the North’s government.

Details of the U.S.-South Korean guidelines weren’t available, but experts say they are largely about how the two countries would integrate U.S. nuclear weapons and South Korean conventional weapons to respond to various potential contingencies caused by North Korean attacks and provocations. Experts say the U.S. and South Korea are expected to map out detailed concept and operation plans based on the guidelines and review them via bilateral military exercises.

The guidelines are the first of their kind between the allies. The U.S. has repeatedly promised to use all its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to protect South Korea if it is attacked by North Korea, but many experts in South Korea believe the U.S. lacks plans on how it would implement its extended deterrence to its ally. South Korea has no nuclear weapons.

North Korea has argued it was forced to pursue nuclear weapons to deal with U.S.-led nuclear threats. American and South Korean officials have steadfastly said they have no intention of attacking North Korea.

Concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program have grown in recent years as the North performed a slew of provocative missile tests and openly threatened to use nuclear weapons preemptively in potential conflicts with its adversaries.

The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim | AP · July 13, 2024

3. #NORTHKOREA: Kim family Brother and Sister Act

My interview from Ulaanbaatar on the John Batchelor Show with John and Gordon Chang this week. 

https://audioboom.com/posts/8539707-northkorea-kim-family-brother-and-sister-act-david-maxwell-david-maxwell-vice-president-of-t?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0lh2vmd64B4cNzzR3efBX5ILk61IK-rhOyN8J5q1RGse2c_T-m9JBJMEI_aem_Non1dElQGQMPNAT72-1LXA

#NORTHKOREA: Kim family Brother and Sister Act. David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill

##NORTHKOREA: Kim family Brother and Sister Act. David Maxwell.

David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill

https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-sister-firing-drills-f7a30c34f81229d4126190023d62260b

4. North Korea's Kim sacks 'irresponsible' officials over new town project

North Korea's Kim sacks 'irresponsible' officials over new town project

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-koreas-kim-sacks-irresponsible-officials-over-new-town-project-2024-07-13/

By Hyonhee Shin

July 13, 20247:42 PM EDTUpdated 14 hours ago

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un chairs a key meeting of the country's ruling party in Pyongyang, North Korea, June 28, 2024 in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SEOUL, July 14 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has sacked or demoted some senior officials for their "irresponsible" handling of his flagship project to build a new town in the country's north, state media KCNA said on Sunday.

Kim announced the decision while visiting Samjiyon, where North Korea has been building what it called a "socialist utopia" and "a model of highly-civilised mountain city" with new apartments, hotels, a ski resort and commercial, cultural and medical facilities.

While praising builders for their achievements so far, Kim said the irresponsibility of senior officials had caused a series of serious deviations including poor construction work and financial losses.

He singled out Ri Sun Chol, minister of state construction control who was appointed in September, as a "good-for-nothing person" who has never even been to the site since December, suspending him and calling for a formal investigation.

Kim also suspended all members of a construction inspection committee for the project, demoted a ruling Worker's Party official responsible for the matter, and vowed to reexamine vice premier and others over their neglect of duty.

"Going round the newly-built hotels for domestic tourists, he severely pointed out that their construction was carried out at an outdated and backward level," KCNA quoted Kim as saying​.The video player is currently playing an ad.

"Those new buildings have to be remodelled and, consequently, this problem badly affects the general long-term plan for the city development, bringing economic losses."

Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here.

Reporting by Hyonhee Shin, Editing by Nick Zieminski

5. Yoon vows efforts to prevent forced repatriation of N. Korean defectors

China continues to be complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.

Yoon vows efforts to prevent forced repatriation of N. Korean defectors | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Jee-ho · July 14, 2024

SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol said Sunday that South Korea will "spare no diplomatic effort" to prevent the forced repatriation of North Korean defectors overseas.

"We will never neglect North Korean people suffering in the North Korean regime," Yoon said during the commemoration of the inaugural North Korean Defectors' Day held at Cheong Wa Dae. "We will spare no diplomatic effort to ensure North Korean defectors in a foreign country aren't repatriated to the North against their will."

Addressing about 200 defectors and their family members, Yoon said their pursuit of freedom serves as a reminder of how freedom can change people's fate.

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during the commemoration of the inaugural North Korean Defectors' Day at Cheong Wa Dae on July 14, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

"I will do my best to ensure everyone who defects North Korea will be embraced by the Republic of Korea," Yoon said, referring to South Korea by its official name. "Resolving North Korean human rights issues is an important foundation for peace and unification of the Korean Peninsula, and accepting North Korean defectors is the first step toward that."

Yoon vowed to enhance support for North Korean defectors, so that they can find their footing south of the border.

As part of that effort, Yoon said resettlement funds provided to the defectors, stuck at the same level since 2005, will be substantially increased.

The president also said the central and regional governments and state-run institutions will hire more defectors. Companies that employ defectors will be offered tax credits, among other incentives, Yoon added.

The government will also support communities of North Korean defectors, so that those who arrived in South Korea early can help others coming in after them, Yoon said.

During a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 16, Yoon instructed the unification ministry to designate a day for North Korean defectors, stressing that those defectors are South Korean citizens under the Constitution.

The ministry then chose July 14 as the official day for the defectors because the law on protecting them and supporting their settlement in the South went into effect July 14, 1997.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (C) attends the commemoration of the inaugural North Korean Defectors' Day at Cheong Wa Dae on July 14, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Jee-ho · July 14, 2024

6. U.S. Indo-Pacific commander says S. Korea's acquisition of nuclear submarines could be considered in future: Yoon's office

Support for AUKUS Pillar 2. But could the ROK move to Player 1?

U.S. Indo-Pacific commander says S. Korea's acquisition of nuclear submarines could be considered in future: Yoon's office | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · July 14, 2024

SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- The chief of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has said the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) in South Korea could be considered in the future depending on its operational analysis, the presidential office said Sunday.

"From the standpoint of submarine warfare, I think it's important as allies and partners to find the most efficient and effective ways to combine our capabilities in ways that most effectively defend our alliances and partnerships," Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said during an interview with the South Korean press Thursday on the runway of the Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii.

"And if the operational analysis leads us to believe that, then we can move forward at a later date," he added.

Paparo, however, stressed he has no further comment on the issue at this time.

"But I do have a comment that as equal partners and highly technical countries, we have to approach this from the standpoint as equals," he said.

The debate over whether South Korea should possess SSNs has gained traction in recent years as North Korea has been doubling down on its pursuit of stronger naval capabilities, including underwater attack drones and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

It is considered rare for a high-ranking U.S. military official to discuss the possibility of the South acquiring SSNs.

Pointing out that the recent developments in North Korea are "very concerning to everybody," Paparo said Washington continues to seek the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula "at all times."

"We're equal partners with South Korea, and in the spirit of (the) Washington (Declaration), we've established a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and as equal partners, at very high levels of government and as strategic partners," he said. "Through the NCG, we're in a constant dialogue at very high levels of secrecy to find a strategic way ahead to deal with the issue."

On President Yoon Suk Yeol's visit to the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii last week en route to a North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Washington, Paparo said it was a "great honor" and a "very strategic move."

"We talked about the importance of the ROK-U.S. alliance, we talked about the very concerning meeting of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-un, and the implications for proliferation of missile technology and nuclear technology in the Korean peninsula and the very great importance of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) and Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, salute their countries' national flags during Yoon's visit to Camp Smith, the command's headquarters, in Hawaii on July 9, 2024. (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · July 14, 2024

7. Will S. Korea join AUKUS Pillar 2 in face of deepening Russia-NK ties?

Will S. Korea join AUKUS Pillar 2 in face of deepening Russia-NK ties?

The Korea Times · July 13, 2024

U.S. President Joe Biden, center, meets with Britain's then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, and Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese at Point Loma naval base in San Diego, U.S., March 13, as part of AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. AP-Yonhap

Experts fear Seoul’s participation can further strain relations with Beijing

By Kwak Yeon-soo

There is an ongoing discussion as to whether South Korea will join the AUKUS Pillar 2 in the face of deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

The AUKUS — an acronym for Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. — is a trilateral security partnership formed among the three countries in 2021 to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Pillar 2 of the AUKUS aims to share advanced military technology in areas such as hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence and cyber technology, whereas Pillar 1 involves delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

In May, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the possibility of joining the AUKUS Pillar 2 was discussed during a “2 Plus 2” meeting among foreign and defense ministers in Melbourne, Australia.

“We do welcome that AUKUS members are considering South Korea as an AUKUS Pillar 2 partner. Korea's defense science and technology capabilities will contribute to the peace and stability of the development of the AUKUS Pillar 2 and regional peace,” Shin said during a press conference following the meeting.

Last month’s summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un strengthened military alliance between the two countries, putting South Korea’s security at risk. The two signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which involves providing mutual defense assistance in case either side faces an armed attack.

The government is now facing growing calls to engage in discussions with AUKUS members to weigh up the economic and security benefits and costs about whether joining Pillar 2 is in the national interest. The presidential office said it is in the early stages of discussion and it would require a considerable amount of time for review.

Although nothing has been decided yet, experts see Seoul’s participation as an opportunity to boost deterrence against North Korea and other security threats.

“South Korea has much to gain from joining AUKUS Pillar 2, especially around this time when North Korea and Russia are strengthening military ties,” Ban Kil-joo, a research professor at Korea University, said. “The AUKUS Pillar 2 isn’t just a security partnership. It’s more like a new Cold War-era military alliance. Thus, it will contribute to peace and stability in the region.”

Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said joining AUKUS Pillar 2 would mean falling under U.S.-led “lattice-like architecture.” This strategic framework refers to several small cooperation groups, including South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation, the AUKUS and the Quad.

“If South Korea joins the AUKUS Pillar 2, it will be able to deter, defend and respond to threats from North Korea, among other regional threats. The U.S., U.K. and Australia will provide security assurance and South Korea will be able to learn about emerging military technologies,” Doo said.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, left, shakes hands with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ahead of their bilateral talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, May 13. Yonhap

However, experts pointed out that joining the AUKUS Pillar 2 would also come with risks.

Seoul’s participation would likely deteriorate its already-tense relationship with Beijing, since the pact is widely seen as part of U.S.-led efforts to counter China’s assertiveness in the region.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington objected to the arrangement, saying “AUKUS is essentially about fueling military confrontation through military collaboration.”

"It (AUKUS) creates additional nuclear proliferation risks, exacerbates the arms race in the Asia-Pacific and hurts regional peace and stability. China is deeply concerned and firmly opposed to it," Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA on May 6.

Ban said, “China will probably be upset if South Korea participates in AUKUS Pillar 2, but I think we should manage the risk by assuring China that Pillar 2 is a platform for technology collaboration.”

Doo feared that the government’s efforts to stabilize ties with China might come to nothing. South Korean and Chinese foreign ministers resumed talks and Seoul hosted a long-suspended South Korea-Japan-China trilateral summit in May.

“Seoul will likely face a strong opposition from Beijing. China may retaliate by joining forces with North Korea and Russia, heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” Doo said.

Pundits suggested South Korea should adopt strategic ambiguity until the U.S. election.

“There is no need to make a hasty decision. We can use it as a leverage tool to engage with like-minded countries and deter North Korean aggression,” Doo said.

Meanwhile, Japan, New Zealand and Canada are reportedly under consideration for AUKUS Pillar 2 partners.

The Korea Times · July 13, 2024

8. N. Korean leader's sister bristles at anti-Pyongyang leaflets, vows strong response

Korean escapees in the South are launching their balloons from the moral high ground.

N. Korean leader's sister bristles at anti-Pyongyang leaflets, vows strong response | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Jee-ho · July 14, 2024

SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said Sunday that South Korea should be ready to pay "a very high price" for sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets north of the border, calling such an act "dirty play."

Kim Yo-jong, vice department director at the ruling Workers' Party, said she was informed earlier in the day by party and military officials that "dirty leaflets and things" had been discovered in 17 places in the border region and other areas of her country. Kim said those leaflets were burned, according to the regulation on handling "enemy-dropped objects."

"Despite the repeated warnings of the DPRK, the ROK scum are not stopping this crude and dirty play," Kim said in an English-language statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). DPRK is short for the North's official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea. ROK refers to the South's official name, Republic of Korea.

"As already warned, the scum, who are resorting to do this play, will be more strongly criticized by their people. We have fully introduced our countermeasure in such situation," Kim continued. "The ROK clans will be tired from suffering a bitter embarrassment, and must be ready for paying a very high price for their dirty play."

So far this year, North Korea has responded to leaflets from South Korea by sending balloons filled with trash across the border. South Korea then pushed back by blaring anti-Pyongyang broadcasts through its border loudspeakers.

In an unprecedented move, the KCNA released a photo showing leaflets flown in from South Korea being burned, along with a pack of cold medicine.

Materials believed to be anti-Pyongyang leaflets from South Korea are set on fire after being discovered in North Korea, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency on July 14, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Jee-ho · July 14, 2024

9. S. Korea warns of end of N. Korean regime if Pyongyang uses nuclear weapons

S. Korea warns of end of N. Korean regime if Pyongyang uses nuclear weapons | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Jee-ho · July 14, 2024

SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea warned on Sunday that North Korea will face the end of its regime if it attempts to use nuclear weapons.

"We sternly warn that there is no scenario in which North Korea's regime will survive after using nuclear weapons," Seoul's defense ministry said in a statement.

It was released in response to a statement by the North Korean defense ministry from the previous day. After South Korea and the United States adopted "Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula" in Washington on Thursday, North Korea condemned it as a "reckless provocative act."

North Korea also threatened that Seoul and Washington will pay "an unimaginably harsh price."

Commending the signing of the guidelines, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden warned any North Korean nuclear attack against South Korea will be met with a "swift, overwhelming and decisive" response.

The allies' guidelines are expected to expand the assignment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula by increasing the frequency and level of their deployment during both wartime and peacetime.

The South's defense ministry said it was "self-contradictory" on North Korea's part to condemn Seoul and Washington for formulating joint nuclear deterrence guidelines, when it is Pyongyang that threatens the use of nuclear weapons.

"Without North Korean nuclear threats in the first place, those joint guidelines would not have been necessary," the ministry added. "This is a fair step taken by the South Korea-U.S. alliance in the face of the improving North Korean nuclear capabilities and its blatant nuclear threats."

The ministry also blamed the rising tension on the Korean Peninsula on the North Korean regime and noted, "Despite opposition from the international community and sufferings of North Korean people, the regime has continued on with its illegal nuclear missile development."

The ministry issued a similar warning in April after North Korea said it had conducted rocket drills simulating a nuclear counterattack.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) and U.S. President Joe Biden shake hands during their meeting held on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington, D.C., on July 12, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yoo Jee-ho · July 14, 2024

10. Like-minded partners for Korea

Excerpt:

Due to their shared experience with cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns from countries like China, Russia, and Iran, Australia and New Zealand are well-positioned to be South Korea’s partners in addressing the challenge of building robust cybersecurity defenses. By holding regular IP4 meetings, South Korea can collaborate with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan to share experience and develop effective strategies to enhance cybersecurity. This ongoing dialogue will provide opportunities for the four nations to learn from each other and achieve significant advancements in their collective cyber defense efforts.

Like-minded partners for Korea

The Korea Times · July 14, 2024

President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, poses with the leaders of the other three Indo-Pacific nations before the "IP4" meeting held on Thursday (local time) in Washington on the sidelines of the NATO summit. From left are Yoon, Prime Minister of New Zealand Christopher Luxon, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles. Yonhap

'IP4' nations' meeting should be institutionalized

During a meeting with the representatives of the four Indo-Pacific countries — South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, known as the “IP4” nations — on Thursday in Washington D.C., President Yoon Suk Yeol delivered a remark that was both timely and important.

Yoon said, “strong deterrence and cooperation among like-minded countries” are two key pillars to prevent war.

The leaders' meeting of the IP4 nations exemplifies a convergence of countries with shared values committed to a rules-based global order. This gathering is particularly relevant in light of the dangerous global security developments, such as the arms trade between Russia and North Korea amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Australia and New Zealand have not been seen as security partners for South Korea, despite their resilient bilateral relations with the South.

However, the ongoing geopolitical shift driven by the U.S.-China rivalry has united South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, as NATO seeks to strengthen cooperation with these IP4 countries to address the dangerous spillover effects of the Russia-North Korea arms deals on both the Asia-Pacific region and Europe amid the Ukraine war.

The IP4 meeting, once institutionalized, will benefit South Korea.

Enhanced intelligence sharing is one of the areas South Korea can expect from the multilateral gathering.

Australia and New Zealand are two of the five member countries of an English-speaking intelligence-sharing alliance known as “The Five Eyes.” The other three members of this alliance are the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.

Intelligence failure has emerged as a key challenge for the Yoon Suk Yeol government. South Korea’s counter-intelligence capabilities significantly weakened during the previous Moon Jae-in government as it took a set of measures to reform intelligence agencies. Most notably, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) was deprived of its jurisdiction to investigate espionage cases as investigative powers were transferred to the police in January this year. This development is a direct result of the 2020 revision bill passed during the Moon administration.

During the five years of the Moon government, South Korea’s human intelligence network was significantly undermined due to a policy focus on diplomatic engagement with North Korea, which led to reduced covert operations and increased scrutiny on intelligence activities.

The repeated cycle of politically motivated investigations and legislation with each new government has turned out to be self-destructive. These actions weakened the intelligence-gathering and analytical capabilities of the agencies.

If South Korea and the Five Eyes members agree to share intelligence, this will help rebuild South Korea’s intelligence capabilities.

Since the signing of the mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and South Korea in October 1953, the South has depended significantly on this alliance to protect itself from North Korea’s potential invasions. Faced with persistent and growing security threats from the North, it is understandable that South Korea’s best option has been to bolster its military cooperation with the U.S. to ensure the safety of its citizens.

But the global security environment has undergone a seismic shift over the past few decades. One of the most notable changes is the evolution of the concept of national defense. In the past, national defense was primarily about strengthening a country’s military capabilities to cope with or deter increasingly sophisticated weapons systems from adversaries. To achieve this, countries focused on increasing their military spending.

Today, cyberspace, in addition to physical territory, has become another critical domain that nations must defend. Peacetime cyberattacks, often launched by state-sponsored actors, occur every day and around the clock. No country or entity is completely safe from these attacks. The expanded concept of national defense now encompasses both physical territory and cyberspace, requiring governments to take swift and effective measures to detect and counteract cyber threats and to build robust cybersecurity systems to safeguard their national security.

Due to their shared experience with cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns from countries like China, Russia, and Iran, Australia and New Zealand are well-positioned to be South Korea’s partners in addressing the challenge of building robust cybersecurity defenses. By holding regular IP4 meetings, South Korea can collaborate with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan to share experience and develop effective strategies to enhance cybersecurity. This ongoing dialogue will provide opportunities for the four nations to learn from each other and achieve significant advancements in their collective cyber defense efforts.

The Korea Times · July 14, 2024

11. Why the Tumen River border could test ties between China, Russia and North Korea

Someday the port of Najin in north Korea is going to be an economic powerhouse for Korea, China, and Russia.

Why the Tumen River border could test ties between China, Russia and North Korea

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270345/why-tumen-river-border-could-test-relations-between-china-russia-and-north-korea?utm

• Using the waterway to reach the Sea of Japan is a ‘dream’ for China but its neighbours fear they could lose out by opening it up to shipping

Shi Jiangtao

+ FOLLOWPublished: 10:00pm, 13 Jul 2024

By Shi Jiangtao South China Morning Post5 min

July 13, 2024

View Original

In a joint statement issued after Putin’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing in May, the pair agreed to hold a “constructive dialogue” with North Korea about letting Chinese ships sail through the lower Tumen River to the Sea of Japan, or East Sea.

The three countries were expected to talk about this “soon”, Nikkei Asia reported last month, citing unnamed sources.

The river forms part of North Korea’s border with both of its neighbours, but a 17km (10½-mile) stretch along the Russian border is largely unnavigable for freight vessels because of a Soviet-era railway bridge linking the two sides.

During Putin’s recent visit to North Korea the two countries signed an agreement to build a new cross-border road bridge – a move some observers believe might lead to the demolition of the old bridge, making the route more accessible for shipping.

However, others doubt that Pyongyang and Moscow would want to open the route to Chinese shipping – especially warships.

Li Lifan, an specialist in Russian and Central Asian studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that after years of talks it would “be a strategic win and a dream come true” for China to open up the river.

“China can shorten the freight voyage to Japan and Europe and reduce costs through the sea outlet on the Tumen River.

“Russia in return will be able to fully develop its Far East region with China’s help, with Chinese investments pouring in to stimulate local economic growth,” Li said, adding that it would help Moscow counter the impact of Western sanctions.

Both Russia and North Korea have historically been reluctant to see China gaining more influence in that region, where historical grievances fester about it being forced to cede territory to Russia in the 19th century when the Tsarist empire took advantage of China’s weakness to secure what is now the port of Vladivostok.

Li said Putin appeared to have changed his mind by agreeing to work with China to develop the Tumen link to the sea, and if Beijing was willing to pay for the new bridge “I don’t see why Pyongyang and Moscow would refuse such an offer”.

“When a new bridge is built, it is fairly likely, and preferable from China’s perspective, to have the old bridge demolished, which would clear the main obstacle for the navigation of big cargo ships,” Li added.

Stephen Nagy, a professor at International Christian University in Tokyo, said: “Opening the Tumen River to shipping does provide China more diversity in terms of export routes, the ability to project power into the Sea of Japan, and potential access to the Arctic, an area that is seen as important for shipping, resources and competition.”

But both Moscow and Pyongyang “may find it distasteful to have Chinese naval vessels navigating through their waters”, according to Nagy.

“Remember, both North Korea and Russia are conscious and anxious about China’s long-term intentions for the Far East, anxieties that flare when Chinese counterparts make faux pas about how the territories now part of Russia and North Korea used to be Chinese,” he said.

Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, said it was too early to say Moscow and Pyongyang would agree to Beijing’s demands for an outlet to the Sea of Japan.

“As far as I understand, there are no plans or agreements to demolish the existing cross-border railway bridge between Russia and North Korea.

“The agreement signed in Pyongyang during Putin’s recent visit calls for the construction of another vehicle bridge. So there will be two Russian-North Korean bridges on the lower riches of the Tumen River instead of one,” he said.

Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pictured during the Russian president’s recent visit. Photo: Reuters

“I don’t think Russia and North Korea have an interest in allowing Chinese cargo … into the Sea of Japan. For one thing, if China gets direct access to the Sea of Japan, it would threaten the business of Russian and North Korean ports on the Sea of Japan, such as Vladivostok, Nakhodka and [Rason – a North Korean port formerly known as Rajin-Sonbong].”

Instead, Moscow might allow Beijing to use the Tumen for tourist and pleasure cruises, but “freight shipping, and especially naval navigation, on the lower reaches of the Tumen seems a rather unlikely prospect at the moment,” he said.

However, Lukin went to say that “nothing is impossible. At some point, Russia, North Korea and China might agree to the conditions to open up full-scale navigation on the Tumen. But this is not the cards right now.”

Natasha Kuhrt, a senior lecturer in international peace and security at King’s College London, said Russia was concerned about giving Chinese warships access to the Sea of Japan.

“It would be a massive undertaking to make the river navigable in fact, because it is too shallow at the moment and the cost of regular dredging would be huge. Of course it would be beneficial for China and at the moment it has to pay North Korea for use of the Rajin port,” she said.

She also said: “I don’t think China would want to be locked into any kind of alliance with Pyongyang. China doesn’t ‘do alliances’ in any case. Beijing doesn’t have control over the regime there.”

Nagy agreed, saying: “I do not see steps towards an alliance. China does not want to get involved in Putin’s reckless war [in Ukraine] or with the unpredictable Kim Jong-un regime.”

Pang Zhongying, a professor of international affairs at Sichuan University, argued Beijing may not have much to gain from its deepening alignment with its two neighbours.

“Given the complexity in the China-Russia-North Korea triangle, what Putin did is probably just another hollow promise because it’s highly unlikely that China would be allowed to have an outlet to the Sea of Japan,” he said.

“In fact, even if the lower Tumen River opens for shipping, China may still need permission from Russia and North Korea to use it.”

He said China was at a crossroads and would have to choose between the West and Russia as it looked to fix its own economic problems, but picking Moscow and Pyongyang would not solve these problems “and would not bode well for its international image in the midst of the Ukraine war”.

12. NATO ramps up pressure on China. What does it mean to South Korea?

Excerpts:

"There needs to be a more formal arrangement among these countries about how they will collectively respond to China’s economic coercion," Friedhoff said. "Without that agreement, China will have the opportunity to isolate those countries and weaken their internal cooperation."

Friedhoff added that, once South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand develop the formal arrangement to enhance their ties, through swap or purchase agreement, for example, they will "have a better chance to stick together as competition with China increases."

When asked why it is high time for NATO to address China, McFate said NATO's tilt toward Indo-Pacific 4 comes when there has been a growing divide in the alliance between the US and Europe.

"NATO’s tilt toward 'Indo-Pacific 4' is mostly rhetoric for alliance maintenance," he said.

NATO ramps up pressure on China. What does it mean to South Korea?

koreaherald.com · by Son Ji-hyoung · July 14, 2024

NATO's confrontation with China, tilt toward IP4 might leave S. Korea in disarray

By Son Ji-hyoung

Published : July 14, 2024 - 15:01

In this pool photo distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin meets with China's President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 3. (AFP-Yonhap)

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's joint declaration issued Wednesday in Washington signaled a change from the Western military alliance's traditional focus on Russia with its rare open rebuke of China, calling it a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine.

The rhetoric comes at a time when NATO declared its bid to bolster cooperation with its so-called "Indo-Pacific 4" partners -- namely South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand -- in their latest summit, inviting these four countries' heads of state to the summit for a third consecutive year and institutionalizing its cooperation with these countries to support Ukraine. NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners also collected their voices against military ties between Russia and North Korea.

But there are doubts whether NATO's like-minded Indo-Pacific partner countries neighboring China, like South Korea, could keep pace with NATO's pressure campaign against China given the geopolitical complexities that often left them mired in strategic dilemmas between the world's two superpowers of the United States and China.

Experts caution that South Korea could face increasing pressure from China, given its trade dependence on the Asian superpower, which accounts for roughly 20 percent of its total exports. This pressure is particularly concerning as Seoul seeks to mend relations with Beijing, strained since 2016. South Korea's decision to allow the deployment of the US anti-missile system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, damaged bilateral ties, with China imposing economic coercion on Korean businesses. This made it also challenging for Seoul to manage Pyongyang with its previous strategy of boasting strengthened ties with Beijing.

"NATO’s priorities and the business community's priorities are not well aligned in Europe, North America or South Korea," said Sean McFate, professor of war and strategy at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

"NATO strategists are not nuanced in regard to the financial implications of their decisions, and this friction between military versus economic interests will continue to cause problems."

McFate, who is also a professor at National Defense Univesity and Syracuse University, claimed that NATO strategists driving the military alliance of Europe and North America often stick to the Cold War-era ploys, which would have worked at a time when the world comprised economic blocks of the free trade one and the communist one.

"Now we all live in a giant free trade global economy," McFate said.

The aircraft carrying South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, taxis on the tarmac Wednesday at Andrews Air Force Base, Md. Yoon is attending the NATO summit in Washington. (AP-Yonhap)

Seoul trumpeted its achievements in last week's NATO summit, as it vowed intelligence-sharing commitment with NATO and reaffirmed its guidelines with the US over their joint execution and planning of nuclear deterrence and nuclear operations on the Korean Peninsula. Also, through a series of bilateral summits with nine NATO member states, President Yoon Suk Yeol relished the opportunity to burnish Korea's reputation as a potential military equipment exporter to NATO member states.

Especially when it comes to the intelligence sharing between South Korea and NATO, National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin said in an interview with YonhapNews TV Saturday, "The more North Korea exports its arms to Russia, the more (South Korea and NATO) will get to know more about North Korean weapons." Chang also said signing an airworthiness agreement between South Korea and NATO will "contribute to boosting Seoul's arms exports" to NATO member countries.

While Seoul managed to drum up NATO's support in countering North Korea's security threats, Yoon's national security aides have largely remained quiet about the NATO summit's potential repercussions on its relationship with China.

In the meantime, China has voiced concerns about NATO's scheme to expand its clout to the Indo-Pacific region.

Lin Jian, spokesperson of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, warned Thursday that NATO’s reach into the Asia-Pacific by strengthening military and security ties with China’s neighboring countries as enshrined in NATO's Washington Summit Declaration "harms China’s interests and disrupt peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific."

Lin on Friday also accused NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of "playing up the 'China threat' narrative and inciting suspicion about China and anti-China sentiments in an apparent attempt to cooperate with certain parties to suppress and contain China."

Prime Minister of New Zealand Christopher Luxon (from left), President Yoon Suk Yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, US President Joe Biden and Australia's Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles are seen as Biden greets leaders of North Atlantic Treaty Organization's "Indo-Pacific 4" partners at Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington on Thursday. (Pool photo via Yonhap)

Karl Friedhoff, fellow for Asia Studies at the US-based think tank Chicago Council on Global Affairs said that NATO's Indo-Pacific partners including South Korea should brace for China's actions that could potentially be influenced by its dissatisfaction with NATO's accusations of its involvement in Russia's war with Ukraine.

"There needs to be a more formal arrangement among these countries about how they will collectively respond to China’s economic coercion," Friedhoff said. "Without that agreement, China will have the opportunity to isolate those countries and weaken their internal cooperation."

Friedhoff added that, once South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand develop the formal arrangement to enhance their ties, through swap or purchase agreement, for example, they will "have a better chance to stick together as competition with China increases."

When asked why it is high time for NATO to address China, McFate said NATO's tilt toward Indo-Pacific 4 comes when there has been a growing divide in the alliance between the US and Europe.

"NATO’s tilt toward 'Indo-Pacific 4' is mostly rhetoric for alliance maintenance," he said.

koreaherald.com · by Son Ji-hyoung · July 14, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com