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1. China, Philippines Have Big Disagreements Over Their Recent Deal

2. Kamala Harris’s Foreign-Policy Views on China, Israel-Hamas War, Ukraine

3. Is Russia Trying to Poison Finland’s Water?

4. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2024

5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, July 26, 2024

6. China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 25, 2024

7. The Future Face of Irregular Warfare: Great Power Confrontation in the 21st Century

8. Editing Well: 10 Tips (From the CSA's Harding Project)

9. France foiled four plots to sabotage Olympics

10. We’ve Forgotten Trump’s Shooter Already

11. Olympic Ceremonies on the Seine were a daring feat. Paris stuck the landing.

12. Russia, adapting tactics, advances in Donetsk and takes more Ukrainian land

13. With 11th trip, Austin works to cement legacy in Indo-Pacific

14. America’s Political Chaos Is Enviable When You Live in an Autocracy

15. Russians, Fleeing War, Find Haven in the Cafes and Beaches of South America

16. TikTok Collected U.S. Users’ Views on Gun Control, Abortion and Religion, U.S. Says

17. Vice President Kamala Harris’s Real-World School of Foreign Policy

18. Anti-colonial call to cancel US RIMPAC naval exercises

1. China, Philippines Have Big Disagreements Over Their Recent Deal

Excerpts:

The reality is that this is not about a rusting World War II-era landing ship and some 50 Philippine marines. The United States cannot afford to allow Beijing to make the South China Sea, through which trillions of dollars’ worth of global trade passes, into Chinese territorial waters. Deterring China in this case requires a willingness to risk conflict, in order to maintain the peace. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated that it is willing to risk conflict, as its ships and aircraft have maneuvered dangerously around U.S., Australian, and Canadian ships and aircraft, and Chinese sailors and maritime militia have sought to intercept Philippine supply efforts. Without a corresponding willingness to demonstrate to the Chinese leadership that the West is prepared to accept higher risk in order to back its ally and honor its treaty commitments, American leaders are likely to be seen as bluffing, eroding regional confidence in Washington.

Backing Sullivan’s words with sufficient force to ensure that the garrison is resupplied, and neutralizing Chinese interference, would put the onus on Beijing on further escalation. Compelling Beijing to consider its risk calculus, and whether the outpost is worth risking conflict, is essential if further Chinese aggression in the region is to be avoided.

China, Philippines Have Big Disagreements Over Their Recent Deal

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

Perhaps the only detail that the two sides seem to accept is that this agreement is an interim one.

This may de-escalate tensions, but Chinese forces will remain a looming presence.

To deter Chinese aggression in the area, the U.S. needs to demonstrate that it is a reliable and steadfast ally.

Thursday, July 25, 2024

/ READ TIME: 10 minutes

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.; Daniel Spinelli; Brian Harding; Carla Freeman, Ph.D.; Lyndi Tsering; Dean Cheng

What led China and the Philippines to make the concessions necessary to reach this agreement? And why now?

Scobell and Spinelli: Of all China’s land and maritime disputes with neighboring states, in recent months the most contentious and escalatory has been the decades-long dispute with the Philippines over Second Thomas Shoal (which the Philippines calls Ayungin Shoal). The Philippines conducts regular resupply missions to the shoal that supports the Sierra Madre, a Philippine navy ship that Manila deliberately beached on the island in 1999. Chinese and Filipino sailors regularly accuse the other of obstructing the waterways near the island, with increasingly aggressive Chinese tactics reaching new heights in a June 17 incident in which a Filipino sailor lost a finger after being rammed by a Chinese ship — although China’s Coast Guard laid the blame on the Philippines.

While both Beijing and Manila concur that the two governments reached an agreement this month to allow the Philippines to resupply the crew of the Sierra Madre without Chinese interference, the two sides are unable to agree about the specific contents and no text of the agreement has been publicly released. This ambiguity was highlighted by dueling statements issued after the agreement was announced.

On July 22, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) proclaimed that three principles undergird the bilateral agreement: (1) China still believes the Philippines ought to eventually withdraw from the reef and restore it to its original state; (2) China will allow the Philippines to resupply the Sierra Madre after receiving advance notification and conducting on-site verification; and (3) China will “resolutely block” any Philippine attempt to build permanent fixtures. China says its “temporary” agreement with the Philippines is in line with these principles and allows for the “transportation of humanitarian supplies,” though China insists it will “monitor the entire process.”

A Philippine public statement did affirm that neither Manila nor Beijing had backed away from its territorial claims and their agreement would “not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea.” But Manila flatly denied China’s claim the deal stipulated that the Philippines would give advance notice before pursuing future resupply missions. Instead, the Philippines insists that the two governments had “reached an understanding of principles and approaches that will be observed by both sides in order to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation.”

While a bilateral negotiation on Second Thomas Shoal would normally be considered a positive development, the current situation prompts a reaction of surreal confusion. Without the text of the agreement available, it remains difficult to assess what precisely the two sides agreed upon and how the two parties can move forward constructively. Perhaps the only detail that the two sides seem to accept is that this is an interim deal.

This acrimonious outcome and apparent absence of any tangible agreement prompt two questions. First, why did China pursue this agreement in the first place? Second, why didn’t Beijing abandon the initiative and avoid this chaotic, confusing and potentially embarrassing conclusion? The answer to the former is that Chinese diplomats likely believed that they had a rare window of opportunity to reach an agreement that could succeed in de-escalating a volatile situation. The answer to the latter is much more difficult to discern but the simplest explanation is that Beijing’s diplomats mistakenly but sincerely believed they had attained success.

Harding: From the Philippines' perspective, the agreement is a win and it did not concede anything. The Philippines will remain able to resupply its forces on the Sierra Madre, just as it has since its grounding in 1999, except without the levels of Chinese harassment seen in recent months. The Philippines will see this episode as validation of its proactive approach to defending its claims to the West Philippine Sea since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in 2022, which has been centered on: (1) an assertive public messaging effort to put China on the back foot and to show the world the extent of China’s behavior in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ); (2) deepening its military alliance with the United States to put teeth in the Mutual Defense Treaty; and (3) strengthening partnerships with a wide array of additional international partners such as Australia, Japan, India and Canada.

From the Philippines' perspective, the agreement is a win and it did not concede anything.

More broadly in Southeast Asia, the agreement will be warmly welcomed. While the Philippines approach under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has generally — and quietly — been supported by the Philippines’ Southeast Asian neighbors, prior to the agreement there were also mounting concerns that the situation around Ayungin Shoal could escalate out of control. There were also concerns that the Philippines and China were no longer talking; the intensive negotiations that led to the breakthrough should reduce those fears. The Philippines will also no doubt hope that other South China Sea claimants will take a page from its playbook and see the strategic value of publicly highlighting China’s aggressive behavior.

What might it mean for tensions in the South China Sea?

Freeman and Tsering: The agreement provides some much-needed breathing room between the two countries but does not appear to signal anything more durable. It follows the announcement that a leader-level hot line will be established between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Marcos, which reports suggest is part of a set of channels and confidence-building activities to prevent further escalation of South China Sea conflicts.

Both the new hot line and agreement on Philippines’ resupply missions reflect a recognition by China that the escalation risks are very real. Moreover, China has suffered reputational damage from its confrontational actions, which have resulted in reported injuries to Philippines personnel.

The agreement may serve to de-escalate tensions, but Chinese forces will remain a looming presence and, although Manila has denied agreeing to either prior notification or on-site verification, Beijing may assert these “terms” to further justify intervention in resupply activities.

For China, which operates in a top-down system of crisis communications and management, the new leader-level hotline could imply intent to seek actual de-escalation and institutionalize a system of crisis prevention. However, whether this hotline is actually used or languishes like earlier established hotlines between the two countries remains to be seen. This agreement will only improve regional security if, along with demonstrating commitment to the terms of the agreement, Beijing picks up the phone if Marcos gives Xi a call.

Whether this hotline is actually used or languishes like earlier established hotlines between the two countries remains to be seen.

Given that China’s foreign ministry released a statement that included no provisions for whether China would escalate perceived failures to proactively communicate passage, the agreement still seems far away from resolving the primary points of current contention.

Harding: The devil will be in the execution, as an exchange between foreign affairs spokespersons following the agreement has already made clear. Specifically, will there be “prior notification” and “on site verification,” as described by the Chinese, and what would that look like? Ayungin Shoal is also far from the only disputed feature within the Philippines EEZ, with China’s control over Scarborough Shoal since 2012 particularly vexing for the Philippines. We can expect the Philippines to continue to highlight Chinese actions around Scarborough Shoal and build on what it will have seen as success if its perspective on the agreement holds.

More broadly, China is engaged in extensive influence operations throughout the Philippines, an effort brought to life in recent weeks with the disappearance of Alice Guo, a Chinese citizen and alleged spy with transnational criminal links who was mayor of a town in the Philippines. Highlighting these activities will also no doubt be an increasingly high priority for the Government of the Philippines.

How should Washington view this development?

Cheng: For the U.S., the key is to not be mesmerized by the fact there is an agreement. China has not given up its claims, and indeed, is now posturing to assume the high ground, accusing the Philippines of making concessions and now reneging.

If the United States intends to deter Chinese aggression in the area, it needs to demonstrate that it is a reliable and steadfast ally. The Philippines is an important test case, as it is a treaty partner, under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951.

The United States has long held that the defense treaty does not extend to the disputed waters and features in the South China Sea. The treaty can be invoked, however, if there is an “armed attack in the Pacific area on either” country, where an armed attack is defined as attacks on the metropolitan territory of either state, “or on its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.” Thus, President Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, has stated that the treaty extends to the Philippine landing ship.

Sullivan’s warning to Beijing that the U.S. “will do what is necessary” to support Philippine resupply efforts is a good first step, but an empty gesture unless backed by the ability to support it. Other U.S. allies are looking to see how the Washington responds.

The United States cannot afford to allow Beijing to make the South China Sea, through which trillions of dollars’ worth of global trade passes, into Chinese territorial waters.

The reality is that this is not about a rusting World War II-era landing ship and some 50 Philippine marines. The United States cannot afford to allow Beijing to make the South China Sea, through which trillions of dollars’ worth of global trade passes, into Chinese territorial waters. Deterring China in this case requires a willingness to risk conflict, in order to maintain the peace. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated that it is willing to risk conflict, as its ships and aircraft have maneuvered dangerously around U.S., Australian, and Canadian ships and aircraft, and Chinese sailors and maritime militia have sought to intercept Philippine supply efforts. Without a corresponding willingness to demonstrate to the Chinese leadership that the West is prepared to accept higher risk in order to back its ally and honor its treaty commitments, American leaders are likely to be seen as bluffing, eroding regional confidence in Washington.

Backing Sullivan’s words with sufficient force to ensure that the garrison is resupplied, and neutralizing Chinese interference, would put the onus on Beijing on further escalation. Compelling Beijing to consider its risk calculus, and whether the outpost is worth risking conflict, is essential if further Chinese aggression in the region is to be avoided.

Dan Spinelli is a program specialist for the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

PHOTO: A Chinese Coast Guard and a Chinese militia vessel flank a Philippine Coast Guard ship on a mission to resupply the Sierra Madre, a manned Philippine outpost on Ayungin shoal in the South China Sea on Nov. 10, 2023. (Jes Aznar/The New York Times)

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s).

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2. Kamala Harris’s Foreign-Policy Views on China, Israel-Hamas War, Ukraine

Topics:

China

India, South Asia, and the Indo-Pacific

Trade Policy

Russia-Ukraine and NATO

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Africa

Immigration

Korea (north) is only mentioned in passing in the China context within the trade policy section (and South Korea is not mentioned at all). Korea is not a significant foreign policy issue among the experts at Foreign Policy.

Kamala Harris’s Foreign-Policy Views on China, Israel-Hamas War, Ukraine

Everything we know about the presumptive Democratic nominee’s foreign-policy views.

JULY 26, 2024, 3:07 PM

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By FP Staff

Foreign Policy · by FP Staff

Now that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has seemingly all but locked up the Democratic nomination for the 2024 presidential race, one of the biggest questions swirling around Washington and foreign capitals is what a Harris foreign-policy doctrine would look like if she is elected in November.

Pinpointing the distinctions between U.S. President Joe Biden’s foreign-policy views and Harris’s is no easy task, given that the two have sought to present themselves as being in total lockstep on foreign-policy and national security issues for nearly four years. But she has run for president once before, albeit briefly, and she served as a U.S. senator from 2017 to 2021, so she’s not a blank slate, either.

In addition to reviewing her record and past statements, Foreign Policy spoke to over a dozen current and former U.S. officials, congressional staffers, experts, and former aides to Harris to learn more about where she stands on the key regions and foreign-policy issues in which the United States is involved—from China to the Russia-Ukraine war to the Middle East and beyond. Here’s what we found out.

China

Kamala Harris puts her hand to her chest as she speaks surrounded my members of the media holding microphones, phones and cameras. They stand on board a ship with the ocean in the background.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to members of the media after delivering remarks on a Philippine Coast Guard ship at Puerto Princesa Port on Nov. 22, 2022. Haiyun Jiang/AFP via Getty Images

Harris’s China track record is relatively limited compared to Biden, who even as a candidate in 2020 could boast that he’d spent extensive time with Chinese President Xi Jinping as vice president. Harris has only a brief moment of face time with the Chinese leader on record, when she “greeted President Xi” heading into the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok in 2022.

Harris’s strongest China experience may be the time she has spent trying to shore up U.S. alliances in the broader Indo-Pacific region as vice president. She has traveled three times to Southeast Asia as VP, visiting Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Her visit to the Philippines included a stop in Palawan, an archipelago in the South China Sea; during the trip she underscored the United States’ “unwavering commitment” to its ally in a meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. She has often stood in for Biden at meetings in the region as well, including at the U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Jakarta last September.

The position she put forward on China as a 2020 presidential candidate aligns closely with White House policy over the past four years—pursuing competition and cooperation simultaneously. In a September 2019 primary debate, she said of China, “They steal our products, including our intellectual property. They dump substandard products into our economy. They need to be held accountable,” while adding that the United States should cooperate with China on key issues like climate change.

However, her vision did differ from current policy in one respect: She criticized then-President Donald Trump’s China tariffs and had previously said she wasn’t a “protectionist Democrat.” However, the Biden administration has largely maintained the Trump tariffs, and many Democrats who were previously anti-tariff, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have supported them in the wake of the pandemic and rising competition with China.

Human rights stand out as an area of focus for Harris both as a senator and a presidential candidate. She and 55 other senators co-sponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which imposed sanctions on officials for violating human rights in Hong Kong during the mass protests against a controversial extradition bill.

The following year she co-sponsored a law applying a similar playbook to China’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang. She also called for then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to take further action in a subsequent letter after reports came out detailing the Chinese government’s efforts to restrict birth rates in Xinjiang. Her views have been reflected in the Biden administration’s policies, which have been tough on human rights issues in China.

Overall, experts said, her approach to China policy is unlikely to diverge significantly from Biden’s.

“Biden’s China policy in a way is a reflection of Democratic consensus,” said Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice who formerly served as the first head of the Office of China Coordination at the State Department. “I don’t expect dramatically different China policies out of Kamala Harris. I really do think that the architecture is pretty much set.”

—Lili Pike

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India, South Asia, and the Indo-Pacific

Harris (center) waring a dark suit shakes hands with Modi, wearing glasses and a blue tunic. At right is Biden in a blue suit. Emhoff and Sullivan wear dark suits behind her. All smile in greeting.

Harris shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he arrives with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 22, 2023. Behind her are her husband, Doug Emhoff (left), and national security advisor Jake Sullivan.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

India has been one of the brightest spots in the Biden administration’s bilateral relationships, with Washington increasingly seeing it as a pivotal counterbalance to China and a key partner in the United States’ wider Indo-Pacific strategy. Defense and technology have been particularly strong pillars of the U.S.-India relationship, with several deals and initiatives announced during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Washington, D.C., last year.

As with other partnerships and regions, experts said Harris’s India policy is unlikely to diverge significantly from Biden’s. The U.S.-India relationship has had reliably bipartisan support for decades, including under Trump, and remains too important on both sides to significantly shake up.

Harris does have a more personal connection to India than any U.S. presidential candidate has ever had—her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, immigrated to the United States from India, and Harris has repeatedly cited her mother’s influence on her life and her views. Politically, however, it’s unlikely to play much of a role. “Certainly, Harris’s ancestral ties to India are something she would likely leverage to convey her own affinities for India,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center and writer of Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. “But in terms of India policy, there really wouldn’t be any daylight between her and Biden.”

Harris has actually been tougher on India than Biden in the past, criticizing the country’s human rights record under Modi—particularly on Kashmir—when she was a senator and also in a more subtle way during multiple engagements with Modi in Washington during her vice presidential tenure. Should she become president, however, that criticism may well be tempered. “I don’t expect her to be tougher than Biden on rights, or at least not tougher than U.S. strategic interests would allow,” Kugelman said.

At the same time, Harris’s age and her younger, chronically online support base could make her more willing to have those uncomfortable conversations. “She’s also from the next generation of Democratic politicians; she’s not from President Biden’s generation,” said Aparna Pande, director of the India Initiative at the Hudson Institute, adding that younger Americans who form a large part of the party’s future base put far more stock in religious freedom and global injustices. There’s also Harris’s own political bent. “She comes from the left side of the Democratic Party to some extent, the progressive side, and so democracy matters, democratic values matter,” Pande added.

When it comes to the broader region, Harris has made multiple trips to Southeast Asia and been one of the prominent faces of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. But it remains to be seen how much she is weighed down during the presidential campaign by one of Biden’s lowest foreign-policy moments as president: the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan that brought the Taliban back to power. Trump repeatedly used that episode as a cudgel against Biden during their first debate, and he may do the same against Harris, though experts say it might not land with the same effect.

“I think it’s going to be difficult for Republicans to tar Kamala Harris with the Afghanistan brush,” said Lisa Curtis, a former White House, CIA, and State Department official who is now director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). “It was fairly clear that it was Biden’s personal decision to fully withdraw in the disastrous manner that we did,” she added.

Should Harris become president, however, Afghanistan presents her with an opportunity to really have a strong foreign-policy impact. “As a woman, hopefully we could expect Kamala Harris, if elected, to focus more on supporting Afghan women,” Curtis said. “As somebody who’s fighting for women’s rights in the United States, I think it would be hard for her to ignore what is happening to women in Afghanistan—the fact that that is the only country in the world that denies education to women and girls.”

—Rishi Iyengar

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Trade Policy

Harris, wearing a lavender suit and heels, walks across a factory floor trailed by a man in a blue suit. Wires and equipment are seen behind them.

Harris tours LA Cleantech Incubator with President and CEO Matt Petersen in Los Angeles on March 17, 2023.Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Harris was never a trade wonk, either in the Senate or as vice president. But broadly speaking, from her time in the Senate and her 2020 presidential run, Harris has advocated for a worker-centric, green-friendly, economically literate vision of trade that fits fairly comfortably into today’s Democratic Party and contrasts evidently with the positions of Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Harris consistently criticized Trump’s tariffs during his term in office, correctly identifying them as additional taxes on U.S. businesses and consumers that led to backlash from trading partners and more economic pain at home.

But Biden said much the same at the time—and went on to maintain many of Trump’s original tariffs before adding new ones of his own, even if they were more targeted and strategic duties meant to protect critical sectors. Perhaps the protectionist bug has spread far enough into both parties that even self-defeating ideas like import duties are hard for any candidate to shake off.

When it comes to trade deals, Harris is a little harder to figure out. She says she would have voted against the original North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a Reagan-Bush-era Republican brainchild that has now become a Republican bogeyman, as well as Trump’s NAFTA 2.0. She said she opposed the revised trade deal with Canada and Mexico because it did not go far enough on labor and environmental protections. She had similar objections to former President Barack Obama’s signature Trans-Pacific Partnership, which soon became toxic for both parties and was killed in Trump’s first week in office.

Like almost all U.S. politicians, Harris blasts China for stealing intellectual property and cheating on trade, but like establishment politicians for decades, she has also insisted that regional and global issues including North Korea and climate change require a working relationship with Beijing.

—Keith Johnson

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Russia-Ukraine and NATO

Harris and Zelensky smile as they shake hands in front of flags of their countries on stands behind them.

Harris shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Ukraine peace summit near Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 15. Alessandro Della Valle/AFP via Getty Images

Biden has sent Harris to represent him at many of the biggest international conferences, including the Munich Security Conference and the Ukraine peace summit.

Harris doesn’t have Biden’s trans-Atlantic record, but three years in a row at Munich, one of Europe’s top talking shops and a place where officials go to calm their nerves on U.S. policy, she’s hit all the expected notes as America’s reassurer-in-chief.

America’s commitment to NATO is “unwavering” and “ironclad,” she said in a February 2022 speech in Munich, just five days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. She also said that NATO’s Article 5 self-defense pledge—which Trump has threatened not to honor for allies who aren’t meeting the alliance’s 2 percent of GDP spending mark—is “sacrosanct.”

In 2023, she returned to Munich with similar talking points on NATO but tougher language about Russia’s invasion, then a year old. The Biden administration had concluded that Russia had committed crimes against humanity in the war, she said.

And about two weeks before the debate that would effectively end Biden’s presidential campaign, Harris filled in as Biden’s surrogate at the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, where she called for a “just and lasting peace.”

The Kremlin has stayed mostly quiet on Harris’s presidential bid so far, with presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noting the vice president’s “unfriendly rhetoric” but adding that Russia could not yet formally assess her candidacy.

Russian state media, however, immediately began to attack the Democratic Party’s new standard-bearer. “Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” said Andrei Sidorov, Moscow State University’s dean of global politics, speaking on Russian state TV’s weekly talk show.

—Jack Detsch

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Harris and Emhoff, both wearing dark suits, look forward with serious faces as they sit in front of the flags of the United States and Israel.

Harris and Emhoff attend Israel’s Independence Day Reception to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the State of Israel at the National Building Museum in Washington, D.C., on June 6, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Perhaps the highest-profile foreign-policy crisis Harris will inherit if she wins in November is the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and the vice president’s track record on Israel and the war is being closely scrutinized for signs of continuity or divergence from Biden.

As with foreign-policy issues across the board, Harris’s history with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is thinner than Biden’s, who had an unusual degree of foreign-policy experience by the time he entered the Oval Office. But a close reading of Harris’s voting record and public speeches suggests that she is unlikely to preside over any significant changes in the U.S. approach to the war in Gaza or the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.“Given what she has said, it seems like continuity,” said David Makovsky, a former senior advisor to the U.S. special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

In June 2023, Harris spoke at a reception in Washington to mark Israel’s independence day in which she touted the United States’ “unwavering” commitment to Israel and her Senate track record of voting in support of security assistance for the country as well as warned against the singling out of Israel because of anti-Jewish hatred. Harris’s husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, is Jewish and has played a prominent role in the administration’s efforts to address antisemitism. During her speech, Harris spoke of her pride in hosting the first-ever Passover seder at the vice presidential residence.

Since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, Harris has largely stuck by the Biden administration’s policy, which has affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself while slowly dialing up its criticism of the unsparing nature of Israel’s military campaign and pushing for a cease-fire deal that would also secure the release of hostages. But there have been a few moments of at least rhetorical divergence. “From time to time, she has stepped out and been more critical of the Israelis than the president,” said Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an FP columnist.

In her public statements, Harris has placed more emphasis on—and shown more empathy toward—Palestinian suffering in Gaza. That is consistent with media reports starting late last year that she has pushed the White House to express more concern about the humanitarian crisis. The Biden administration has disputed those reports.

During a speech in Dubai in December, she revisited the brutal nature of the Hamas attacks that sparked the war, but she also urged Israel to do more to protect civilians in Gaza. In a speech in Selma, Alabama, in March, she called for an immediate cease-fire to allow for the release of hostages and for aid to flow into Gaza. Though her remarks were consistent with the administration’s diplomatic efforts to broker a cease-fire deal, they were met with thunderous applause from the crowd due to her impassioned delivery.

While her policy on the conflict is largely likely to be one of continuity, she may strike a different tone than Biden, said Frank Lowenstein, the former special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations at the State Department. This perception has been echoed by those who have spoken to her personally about the war.

During a meeting with Muslim community leaders at the White House on April 2 to discuss the administration’s Gaza policy, Zaher Sahloul, a Syrian American physician who worked in Gaza on a medical mission earlier this year, said that Harris was moved by their presentation about the impact of the war on people in Gaza and approached him after the meeting to ask for more reports from the ground about the humanitarian situation. “I felt that she projected empathy,” Sahloul said. “She clearly cared about the civilian plight in Gaza.” And while she didn’t diverge from Biden on policy, her articulation of the U.S. approach to the conflict was clearer and more detailed, he said.

In public remarks following her meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, Harris struck a forceful tone. Although she reiterated the Biden administration’s stance that Israel has the right to defend itself, she said that how it does so matters. Speaking about Gaza, she said, “We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.”

Should Harris win the election, she won’t take office until January, and a lot could change in the war between now and then. While the situation in Gaza remains bleak, the nature of the war has already changed from one of large-scale maneuvers to more targeted—though still deadly—operations. “The war is not going to be like it was in the last nine months, so I don’t know if she would face the same kinds of choices that Biden has,” Makovsky said.

—Amy Mackinnon

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Africa

Harris stands in front of a lectern in a high-angle view that shows the grounds of a castle with cannons facing outward. Behind the wall is the rocky shore of Ghana with security officers on the rocks and small boats in the ocan in the distance.

Harris speaks at the Cape Coast Castle in Ghana during a three-nation African tour, as Washington looks to strengthen diplomatic ties on the continent, on March 28, 2023. Nipah Dennis/AFP via Getty Images

In 2022, at a major U.S.-Africa leaders summit in Washington, Biden vowed to visit Africa the following year. He never did. During Kenyan President William Ruto’s state visit to Washington in May, Biden vowed to visit Africa next February if reelected. Now he’s dropped out of the race.

African leaders have long decried how their engagement with Washington has taken a back seat to other geopolitical priorities, and the sting of Biden’s conspicuous no-show followed Trump’s failure to ever set foot in sub-Saharan Africa as president, after infamously referring to some African nations as “shithole countries.”

Team Biden sought to distinguish itself from Trump by organizing the U.S.-Africa leaders summit and dispatching Biden cabinet secretaries to the continent at a regular tempo. Harris was the seniormost administration official to visit the continent, traveling to Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia last year.

A Harris White House would likely take a similar tack to Biden’s approach to Africa, current and former administration officials said: keeping up a steady drumbeat of cabinet-level visits, talking big on boosting democracy and rule of law as the continent faces a dismal downturn in democratic progress, and competing with Russia and China for geopolitical influence.

But a Harris administration would likely face steep uphill battles in convincing African leaders and populations that the United States’ stated commitment to U.S.-Africa cooperation and democracy is more than just rhetoric. Some critics view the Biden administration’s talk of promoting democracy in Africa as hollow, after the administration followed a long and less-than-proud U.S. foreign-policy tradition of prioritizing short-term security partnerships with brittle autocratic regimes over backing real democracy movements. A spate of coups in West Africa and failed U.S. counterterrorism campaigns have left the Sahel region more autocratic, vulnerable to terrorism, and open to partnering with rivals like Russia than ever before.

Despite the baggage, a Harris administration would have some good things going for it on U.S.-Africa engagement. The Biden administration’s emphasis on expanding business and infrastructure ties have led to some $14.2 billion in new two-way trade and investments, and U.S. direct investments in Africa are back on the rise after a sharp downturn during the global coronavirus pandemic.

The Biden team is also throwing a Hail Mary to kick-start peace talks for the war in Sudan in the final stage of the administration—a war that erupted after Washington played a hand in botching Sudan’s transition to democracy—but it’s unclear how those talks will pan out. All the while, a Harris administration would need to balance competing with Russia and China on the continent without treating African governments like pieces on a geopolitical chessboard of great-power competition.

—Robbie Gramer

Return to Full List

Immigration

Harris, wearing a plaid suit, points as she talks with two young people in front of her. Aroound her are other people, some taking photos on their phones.

Harris, then a senator and candidate for president, as she visits the outside of a detention center for migrant children in Homestead, Florida, on June 28, 2019. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Immigration is one of the foreign-policy issues where it’s perhaps easiest to gauge what a potential Harris strategy would look like, since it has been a key part of her portfolio as vice president.

Republicans have labeled Harris as the Biden administration’s “border czar” and attacked her for her supposed failures in accomplishing one task: to “fix the border,” as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley put it. But immigration experts stress that her mandate was far more limited in scope—and she was never appointed as the Biden administration’s “border czar.” (Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra are responsible for the border.)

In reality, Harris was charged with spearheading the Biden administration’s efforts to engage with three Central American countries—Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador—and help tackle the “root causes” of migration such as economic hardship, violence, and political repression. Harris was given the responsibility “to lead an initiative that had to do with private investment in those countries, in order to try to mitigate root causes,” said Doris Meissner, the former commissioner of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service who is now at the Migration Policy Institute.

As part of this effort, Harris announced more than $5.2 billion in private-sector commitments in the three countries. The pledges come from more than 50 companies and organizations, according to the White House, and include Meta; El Salvador’s second-biggest bank, Banco Cuscatlan; and Target.

In 2021, when Harris traveled to Guatemala on the first foreign trip of her vice presidency, she made waves for issuing a sharp warning to potential migrants: “I want to be clear to folks in this region who are thinking about making that dangerous trek to the United States-Mexico border: Do not come, do not come.” The statement was criticized by some progressives and immigrant advocacy groups.

The Biden administration’s broader approach to the southern border offers a window into what a potential Harris strategy would look like. Illegal crossings dropped to a three-year low in June after Biden signed a controversial executive order that blocks migrants from seeking asylum during high levels of crossings. Advocacy groups condemned the executive order, which “is the most restrictive border policy instituted by President Biden and echoes an effort in 2018 by former President Trump to cut off migration,” the ACLU said. Crossings had previously surged to record levels: Last year, the Department of Homeland Security logged the highest monthly number of migrants at the border since 2000.

The Biden administration “has tried very hard to put policies in place that are effective enforcement policies but that at the same time recognize that we are a country of immigration, and that they want to have policies that make it possible for immigration to continue,” Meissner said. “What that balance is, is still unclear.”

As a Californian, a former attorney general, and a child of immigrants, Harris’s own background has shaped her perspective on the issue—and is certain to continue doing so if she is elected president. “California, of course, is completely shaped by migration today and into the future,” Meissner said. “She certainly has a strong grasp of these issues out of her own experience, both personally as well as professionally.”

—Christina Lu

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Foreign Policy · by FP Staff

3. Is Russia Trying to Poison Finland’s Water?

New generation, non-linear warfare? Little green men? And cyber warriors?

Excerpts:

This year, a Russian-linked so-called hacktivist tried to interfere with water operations in several Texas towns, CBS News reports. The Chinese state-sponsored cybergroup Volt Typhoon has been targeting U.S. water facilities and other critical services.

“Drinking water and wastewater systems are an attractive target for cyberattacks because they are a lifeline critical infrastructure sector but often lack the resources and technical capacity to adopt rigorous cybersecurity practices,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned in a letter in March. Indeed, the water authority of Aliquippa (population: 9,000) versus the government of Iran is hardly a match of equals. Nor is the Finnish municipality of Sipoo (population: 22,500) versus the Kremlin.

It will take a lot to stir up fear among Finns, who have seen their share of Russian overt and covert aggression. But the prospect of one’s water being harmed is bound to create worries; after all, not even an invasion is as dangerous as the widespread poisoning of drinking water. Regardless of whether Russia is connected to the break-ins into Finnish water plants, the resulting anxiety will certainly please the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the rest of us can also do our part—by not panicking and by keeping some bottled water at home.

Is Russia Trying to Poison Finland’s Water?

Break-ins at water treatment plants are a prime example of gray-zone aggression. The Finns may never know who did it, but they must resist succumbing to fear.

Braw-Elisabeth-foreign-policy-columnist3

Elisabeth Braw

By Elisabeth Braw, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Foreign Policy · by Elisabeth Braw

Elisabeth Braw

July 26, 2024, 4:32 PM

This summer, mysterious intruders have been breaking into Finnish water towers and treatment plants. They’ve stolen nothing, which is unsurprising, since there would be little to steal. But there are other reasons people might want to break into water treatment plants: to scout them out for future attacks—or to cause the public to worry about the safety of the water in their taps. By disabling water treatment or adding a contaminant, an intruder could turn the life-giving liquid into a source of disease.

So far, the Finnish authorities have not apprehended any suspects. The break-in campaign, though, is a prime example of the nonmilitary aggression that Russia has perfected. So is the coordinated sabotage that brought down French rail lines just as the Olympic Games were about to begin and only days after French police arrested a Russian national in a suspected plot to cause “destabilization” during the Games.

The water attacks in Finland began in Porvoo, a town on the southern coast, where authorities reported that someone had tried to break into the town’s water tower twice. Then Sipoo, near Helsinki, also on Finland’s southern coast, reported break-in attempts at its water plant, too. As in Porvoo, the attackers had targeted the plant two nights in a row. Finland’s southern coast is ordinarily rather quiet, but then again, its immediate neighbor is the Gulf of Finland, the passageway for ships going to and from St. Petersburg. One can never really be sure who is sailing past.

By mid-July, there had been 11 break-in attempts into Finnish water towers and treatment plants. “The break-ins reported this far have not been serious ones and not targeted against the most critical sites, which are more heavily secured, but the worrying thing is that the number of break-in has increased at this very moment,” said retired Lt. Gen. Arto Raty, whose military roles included overseeing Finland’s famous National Defense Course, in which leaders from all parts of society learn about threats to the country. (Raty now works in the private sector.)

The intruders didn’t reach any sensitive parts in the water plants and towers. But with such a noticeable string of attacks having taken place within just a few weeks, Finnish authorities must prepare for more. Several city councils have already decided to strengthen security around their water facilities, starting with more fences and more camera surveillance.

Authorities are also asking: Who would have an interest in breaking into Finnish water plants? So far, they haven’t apprehended anyone or publicly identified a suspect. The intruders, though, are unlikely to have been ordinary criminals. “These are not the sort of break-ins criminals would commit,” said retired Maj. Gen. Pekka Toveri, a former chief of Finnish military intelligence who is now a member of the European Parliament.

Indeed, thieves know that it’s hard to reach the sensitive parts of water facilities, and at any rate, expensive technology would be easier to steal elsewhere. One might suspect environmental extremists—but they stage highly public protests, not break-ins under the cover of darkness, and not even the most fanatical environmental extremist would think it a good idea to attack water sources. Terrorists, too, go for attacks that create maximum publicity, and no known terrorist groups have a beef with Finnish operators of critical national infrastructure.

One actor, though, has an interest in frightening Finns: the Kremlin. “The water treatment companies have said that the break-ins are not a normal situation, and that’s making people worried,” Toveri said. “And one goal of Russia’s gray-zone aggression is to create fear.” Raty added: “We have no evidence showing who is behind these actions, but naturally in speculations the finger is pointing to the east.”

Russia has a clear interest in harming Finnish critical national infrastructure—and in insinuating to the Finnish public that its infrastructure is unsafe. Before Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Kremlin reacted to every suggestion along the lines of NATO accession by threatening unspecified consequences. When the two countries eventually joined, Russia’s armed forces were so bogged down in Ukraine that no so-called consequences took place.

That doesn’t mean that Russia has been idle. Even before the two countries’ NATO accession, the Kremlin was busy harming them and other Western countries in nonmilitary ways. Cyberattacks conducted or condoned by the Kremlin have wreaked havoc on American drivers (remember the Colonial Pipeline attack?), British hospitals, and countless others.

Last fall, Russia began bringing so many migrants to the Finnish border—with the purpose of overwhelming the Finnish authorities—that Helsinki had to shut the crossings altogether. Russia appears to have been involved in the mysterious sabotage of two undersea cables and one pipeline in Swedish, Finnish, and Estonian waters, also last fall: The suspected perpetrator, a Chinese container ship, had worked extensively with Russian authorities and sailed to and from Russian Baltic Sea ports before and after the incidents.

Russia can, in fact, keep coming up with new forms of aggression in the gray zone between war and peace because it faces no punishment for such aggression. Western countries are simply not going to respond eye for eye. Imagine if the governments of liberal democracies rounded up asylum-seekers and deposited them at the Russian border or allowed cybergangs based in the West to paralyze Russian hospitals.

Indeed, Russia can keep innovating in the gray zone using not just the government’s own personnel but all manner of freelancers, too. The coordinated sabotage of French high-speed rail lines is another example of gray-zone aggression; the sophistication of the attack suggests a state actor, but we may never know who did it.

Western governments can suspect a link between seemingly independent perpetrators and the Kremlin, but proving such links is virtually impossible. “Russia could just have paid some criminals to break into the water plants—we just don’t know,” Toveri said. “But what we do know is that the break-ins are tying up the authorities’ resources and creating fear among people.”

Finland is not the first country to see its water supply targeted. This May, Janet McCabe, the deputy administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), warned that China, Russia, and Iran were “actively seeking the capability to disable U.S. critical infrastructure, including water and wastewater.” Last year, for example, the Iranian-linked hacker group Cyber Av3ngers took control of some of the water functions in the Pennsylvania town of Aliquippa, which forced the water authority to switch to manual operations.

This year, a Russian-linked so-called hacktivist tried to interfere with water operations in several Texas towns, CBS News reports. The Chinese state-sponsored cybergroup Volt Typhoon has been targeting U.S. water facilities and other critical services.

“Drinking water and wastewater systems are an attractive target for cyberattacks because they are a lifeline critical infrastructure sector but often lack the resources and technical capacity to adopt rigorous cybersecurity practices,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned in a letter in March. Indeed, the water authority of Aliquippa (population: 9,000) versus the government of Iran is hardly a match of equals. Nor is the Finnish municipality of Sipoo (population: 22,500) versus the Kremlin.

It will take a lot to stir up fear among Finns, who have seen their share of Russian overt and covert aggression. But the prospect of one’s water being harmed is bound to create worries; after all, not even an invasion is as dangerous as the widespread poisoning of drinking water. Regardless of whether Russia is connected to the break-ins into Finnish water plants, the resulting anxiety will certainly please the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the rest of us can also do our part—by not panicking and by keeping some bottled water at home.

Foreign Policy · by Elisabeth Braw

4. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2024

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritized the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational maneuver force in the Avdiivka direction. The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia's main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.

The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces' AOR indicates that the Russian military command may assess that rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area are unlikely.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26.

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges on July 26 – the latest in a concerted Kremlin effort to remove senior Russian defense officials since April 2024.

The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues intensifying efforts to control Russians' internet activities and to create a culture of self-censorship within Russia.

Russian security forces reportedly detained several unknown actors threatening to blow up an apartment building in the Republic of Dagestan on July 25.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on July 22 that the Russian intelligence services appear to have further integrated Russian forces' cyber and conventional capabilities.

5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, July 26, 2024

Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, July 26, 2024

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iraq: A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attacks targeting US forces.

Israel: Former US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. They discussed the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

Lebanon: An anonymous IRGC Quds Force official claimed that Iran gave electromagnetic munitions to Lebanese Hezbollah. This claim is part of a larger effort by Iran and its Axis of Resistance to deter a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.

Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian gave an interview to the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian emphasized regime responsibility in addressing cultural and economic issues while reiterating his subordination to Khamenei.

6. China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 25, 2024

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 25, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-july-25-2024

Key Takeaways

The CCG continued to expand its “law enforcement activities” to assert the PRC’s claim over the Taiwan Strait. The CCG intruded into Taiwan’s restricted waters around Kinmen and tried to expel Taiwanese fishing vessels near the middle of the Strait.

Taiwan and the PRC agreed to resume negotiations about the February 14 capsizing incident that killed two PRC fishermen fleeing the Taiwanese Coast Guard near Kinmen.

PRC officials and media slammed Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises as a futile attempt to “resist reunification.”

The PRC held the Third Plenum of the 20th Party Congress, which focused on promoting economic development in alignment with national strategic goals.

The PRC and Philippines reached a “provisional arrangement” for rotation and resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, though significant points of disagreement remain.

The PRC hosted a “reconciliation dialogue” for Palestinian factions in which Hamas and Fatah signed a joint declaration that stated their intention to form a temporary post-war unity government in Gaza and the West Bank.

7. The Future Face of Irregular Warfare: Great Power Confrontation in the 21st Century

From the DOD Irregular Warfare Center

The 328 page pdf can be downloaded here: https://irregularwarfarecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/Future-Faces-of-Irregular-Warfare.pdf

I have not yet read it but I will go through it this weekend.

The Future Face of Irregular Warfare: Great Power Confrontation in the 21st Century

The Irregular Warfare Center’s first book, The Future Face of Irregular Warfare: Great Power Confrontation in the 21st Century, is an edited volume of essays on the future evolutions and trends of irregular warfare and competition. Written by leading scholars and practitioners of irregular warfare and national security, the book presents a forward-leaning analysis of how IW between the U.S. and its competitors is likely to play out in several key theatres, such as the Indo-Pacific and the Baltics, and in particular issue sets, such as climate change, misinformation and disinformation, economic coercion, and counterterrorism. The book serves to fill a gap in existing literature on the future trends and applications of IW—while much work has been done on attempting to define IW and show how IW trends are at play currently, less focus has been given to the evolution of IW. As such, this volume will be an important addition to the IW debate.

8. Editing Well: 10 Tips (From the CSA's Harding Project)

Useful tips for all writers.

Editing Well: 10 Tips

Slay those syntax somersaults

https://www.hardingproject.com/p/editing-well-10-tips?r=2wau49&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

ELLEN TONER

JUL 25, 2024

(Sketch from Army July 1973)

The most helpful piece of advice I ever received was to remember that all writing is personal. Starting with that, I offer ten suggestions below to anyone editing for the first (or one-hundred-and-first) time, based on my 12 years of experience editing at the Association of the United States Army, where I’m the Senior Editorial Manager for Education & Programs.

Mind the Ego

Every author (with some admirable exceptions) is naturally attached to their writing and inclined to be defensive about it. In consideration of this, edits and questions need to be framed as suggestions wherever possible. This gives authors the deference of remaining “in charge” of their own work..

This means it’s best to avoid first and second person pronouns like the plague. So, rather than saying, “You have an incomplete sentence here,” or, “You’re missing the capitalization on _____,” or, “I think you need to change the word to get your meaning across,” say instead, respectively, “Looks like the sentence is incomplete?” and, “____ should be capitalized,” and, “Meaning is unclear. Does this other word work better for the meaning of this sentence?” Egos are a big deal in the military (let me tell you something you don’t know!), and kid gloves are essential when issuing corrections to people who are used to being in charge. Take yourself and the author’s self out of it, and just talk about the text.

Be the Invisible Hand

It is your job as an editor to help authors say what they want to say, in the best and clearest way possible. The best editor is invisible in the final product.

Edit with Evidence

If you’re going to change something, have a concrete reason for it, and be able to back it up calmly and with well-founded self-assurance. When in doubt, STET—that is, let it stand. Don’t change it.

Cultivate Clarity

Readers get distracted by stylistic inconsistencies and excessive verbosity. The author’s language should advance a thesis, not distract or detract. Depending on audience and context, complicated syntax (in philosophical or theological texts, for example) or florid language (literary journals) can be appropriate and support or advance a thesis, but, generally, they often obfuscate the author’s intention.

Also be mindful of stylistic inconsistencies. These may include sometimes using an acronym, sometimes spelling it out; sometimes capitalizing a term, sometimes lowercasing it; sometimes using the serial/Oxford comma, sometimes skipping it.

People inevitably pick up on little things like this and, consciously or subconsciously, can more easily disregard an author’s main thesis because the fine polishing is shoddy or non-existent. Any good argument needs grammar, logic and rhetoric; it’s the job of the editor to help the author make sure that they are all there.

Find and Replace

Regarding inconsistencies, when you come across a term or phrase that is sometimes handled one way, sometimes another way, figure out which way is correct and then search the document for it so you can ensure it’s handled the same in each instance. Keep a running list of how you are handling such things for each project so you don’t have to keep flipping/scrolling to see how you did it last time.

Be Thoughtfully Inconsistent

Also regarding inconsistencies: sometimes, very rarely, I allow things to be inconsistent in order to help the reader understand the meaning of something with as few roadblocks as possible. It may or may not surprise you to know that I happen to think that it matters that we stick to the rules and have standards: in language, grammar and elsewhere in life.

For example, our style guide in Education & Programs at AUSA says no serial/Oxford comma. Most of the time that’s fine, but sometimes you get a list of things that are each several words or a phrase long, and not putting in that final comma before that last “item” means that a reader will have to go back and puzzle it out. In those instances, I add the verboten Oxford comma to allow the reader the luxury of just continuing to read without having to trip up, pause, go back, and get distracted from the main point.

Sometimes the flow of a particular sentence is better if you don’t follow the rules, but such liberties must be undertaken with understated, unobtrusive skill and finesse, otherwise you run into the old trap of poor language detracting from the thesis.

Don’t Make the Syntax Do Somersaults

Forgive me if you know this already, but, regarding two “classic” rules of grammar, namely, not splitting infinitives and not ending sentences with prepositions: both are fake rules. Grammarians in the early 20th century (or thereabouts) who were Latinate in their linguistic philosophies decided that infinitives should be unified in English as they are in Latin. The thing is, infinitives in Latin are only one word, not two, so it’s not, to be perfectly blunt, an idea that actually translates well.

The terminal preposition rule came from a similar (perhaps the same? I don’t know) class of grammarians: “The traditional caveat of yesteryear against ending sentences or clauses with prepositions is an unnecessary and pedantic restriction. And it is wrong. As Winston Churchill is said to have put it sarcastically, ‘That is the type of arrant pedantry up with which I shall not put.’ The ‘rule’ prohibiting terminal prepositions was an ill-founded superstition based on a false analogy to Latin grammar. Today many grammarians use the dismissive term ‘pied-piping’ for this phenomenon" (Chicago Manual of Style, 17th ed., 5.180).

For both of these things, because they are “rules” that everyone seems to know and think are very important, I will generally adjust text to avoid them if it doesn’t throw things off too much or make things seem unnatural. Splitting an infinitive or ending a sentence with a preposition can be legitimately distracting to the readers who don’t know that such things are actually just fine. But I don’t make the syntax do somersaults to avoid them: that would break the cardinal rule of focusing on the language instead of clearly communicating its meaning. Like so many other things, it’s a judgement call!

Don’t Be Dumb

Watch out for “dumb quote marks.” This is the actual real name for quotation marks—and apostrophes—that show up in whatever font you’re using as straight lines instead of curved lines. You want “smart marks,” not dumb marks. Some simplistic fonts, like the one used on Facebook statuses, if I recall correctly, don’t curve their quotation marks and apostrophes, so when things are copied and pasted and dropped into another document, it causes a problem. You can search and replace in a whole document to make sure you get them all if you seem them cropping up.

Watch Your Dashes

There are three kinds of dashes—hyphens, en dashes and em dashes—and they each have a specific purpose. Hyphens are the shortest, en dashes are twice as long and em dashes are three times as long. The latter two get their name from the fact that, in most fonts, an en dash is the same width as the letter n and an em dash is the same width as the letter m. The hyphens are the easy ones we use for compound words and adjectives, like the Russo-Ukrainian War. En dashes are used in number ranges, both for years and pages. When I start editing a set of endnotes and see that an author has taken the time to cite a page range as 63–65 rather than 63-65, I cheer internally. World War II lasted from 1939–1945, not 1939-1945. Finally, em dashes are the most versatile and blessedly flexible of any punctuation mark. They can be used to set off an aside—such as I did in the first sentence of this paragraph and as I’m doing right now—and they can be used in the same way (but with looser restrictions) that a colon or semi-colon might be used to emphasize a point at the end of a sentence. For example: “Everyone should understand the rules of grammar—especially editors.”

Check the Big Print

It’s easy to get lost in the weeds of the text and assume that of course we haven’t messed up on any titles or subtitles, because they’re straightforward and obvious. How could we miss anything that stands out like that? Well, precisely because we don’t expect to miss anything, so we don’t even look at it. I remember in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, sending a topical paper off to the printer with a fatally misspelled Ukranian in the title. Luckily I realized the mistake just in time, literally told the printer to “stop the presses” and sent over a revised proof with that all important first i inserted where it belonged: Ukrainian. Learn from my mistake, and check the big print.

Anyway, I hope all of that is helpful! I’m sure there’s loads more I could say, but that should be enough to keep the wheels turning.

11 Likes

1 Restack

A guest post by

Ellen Toner

Ellen Toner is a Senior Editorial Manager at AUSA. She has a BA in English from the University of Dallas and is a graduate of the Denver Publishing Institute. She lives with her husband, writer Jamey Toner, and their three kids in rural MA.

9. France foiled four plots to sabotage Olympics

France foiled four plots to sabotage Olympics

26 July 2024 • 9:07pm

The Telegraph · by Henry Samuel

SNCF railway workers and police officers work at one site of the sabotage Credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters

Key moments

Chosen by us to get you up to speed at a glance

France has foiled four different plots to sabotage the Paris Olympics over the last few weeks, the French interior minister said on Friday without giving further details.

The comments came after three of the country’s four high-speed lines were hit by arson attacks on the day of the opening ceremony, impacting up to 800,000 travellers.

Signals along the tracks were set on fire and cables cut and set alight in a series of “coordinated” strikes that brought train services around the capital to a standstill, sources close to the investigation said.

Nobody has so far claimed responsibility, but French intelligence and US officials said that the incident could have been the work of anarchists or extreme Left-wing groups.

Some senior French officials have pointed the finger at Russia, whose athletes are barred from this year’s Olympic Games.

Israel said that Iran was responsible, with foreign minister Israel Katz writing on social media that the attack was “planned and executed under the influence of Iran’s axis of evil and radical Islam”.

Patrice Vergriete, acting transport minister, said the authorities were “preparing themselves” for more such incidents.

SNCF, France’s national state-owned railway, said it would ramp up security to enable trains to run tomorrow. 1,000 workers, 40 railway police teams and 50 drones would be deployed to monitor the rail network, the company said.

Travel disruption will continue into the weekend. In a statement earlier on Friday, Eurostar confirmed it would be cancelling one in four services across its network on Saturday and Sunday.

One to two-hour delays are also expected across the French high-speed rail network.

Repairing sabotaged fibre-optic cables will be a complex and painstaking job, French officials said earlier on Friday.

“We need to find all the experts … who have the capacity to repair, as well as the tools and parts, since we’re talking about technical cables that aren’t the kind of cables you find everywhere,” Franck Dubourdieu, a regional train director, said.

“We’re in the process of bringing them in from different parts of France to be able to repair them as quickly as possible,” he added.

It is understood that the cables were used to relay safety information, such as red light signals, to train drivers.

; Cameron Henderson ; Iona Cleave ; Fiona Parker ; Gareth Corfield ; Will Bolton, Crime correspondent and Daniel Hardaker

Today’s live coverage has ended.

Today’s live coverage has ended. Here’s a roundup of the day’s events:

High-speed trains around France were hit by several “coordinated acts of malice” on Friday that heavily disrupted traffic on the day of the Paris Olympics opening ceremony.
The French sports minister vowed not to let the attacks ruin the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
Saboteurs had knowledge of the railway network, the French prime minister said.
French intelligence said anarchists or extreme Left-wing groups could have been behind the attacks.
Israel suggested Iran could be responsible for the attacks.

Pictured: The airspace security bubble over Paris

Airplanes move around a security bubble over Paris ahead of the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games Credit: AFP

Sabotaged cable wires need to be reconnected ‘one by one’, says France’s national railway company

Fibre optic cables sabotaged in three arson attacks on the French high-speed rail network will need to be “reconnected one by one”, the CEO of SNCF, France’s state-owned national railway company, said.

Jean-Pierre Farandou went on to explain that SNCF will need to carry out a complex and painstaking job to repair the damaged cables over the weekend.

“We’re in the process of bringing them in from different parts of France to be able to repair them as quickly as possible,” he added.

French media said that the sabotaged cables were used to transmit safety information to train drivers.

France will not descend into chaos, Macron tells Musk hours before train sabotage

Emmanuel Macron assured business leaders including Elon Musk that France would not descend into chaos just hours before saboteurs brought the country’s rail network to a standstill.

At a private lunch in the Elysee Palace, the French president told Mr Musk and around 40 other senior global executives that the country would remain economically stable and a positive place to invest.

His pledge of stability came before sabotage attacks paralysed France’s high-speed rail network ahead of the high-profile Olympics opening ceremony.

You can read the full story here.

France deploys 50 drones to monitor rail network

SNCF, France’s national state-owned railway company, has said it is ramping up security to enable trains to run tomorrow.

The company said 1,000 workers, 40 railway police teams and 50 drones would be deployed to monitor the rail network.

A statement read: “In coordination with the forces of law and order, surveillance of the network has been stepped up on the ground and in the air, using both human and technical resources.”

Three of the country’s four high-speed lines were hit by arson attacks on Friday, impacting hundreds of thousands of travellers hours before the Olympic Games opening ceremony in Paris.

Attackers won’t ‘spoil the party’, says French sports minister

Amelie Oudéa-Castéra, the French sports minister, has vowed not to let Friday’s coordinated sabotage attack on France’s high-speed rail network ruin the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

“We’re not going to let ourselves be destabilised: we had anticipated all these scenarios … they’re not going to spoil the party by doing this,” Ms Oudéa-Castéra told reporters.

The opening ceremony will take place outside a closed stadium for the first time in the history of the modern Olympics, with an open-air parade of 160 boats sailing almost 4 miles down the River Seine through the heart of Paris.

The then-head of the Paris police said the Seine plan was “madness” in 2021, but Emmanuel Macron, the French president, lauded the decision earlier this week.

“At the beginning, it seemed to be a crazy … but we decided it was the right moment to deliver this crazy idea and make it real,” Mr Macron said.

The show begins at 6.30pm UK time.

German chancellor condemns rail sabotage in France

Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, has condemned attacks on the French railway network that took place hours before the Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony.

In a post on social media, Mr Scholz said: “The attacks on railway lines and railway facilities in France are to be absolutely condemned.

“Disrupting a celebration of peace such as the Olympic Games with acts of violence is unacceptable.

“I hope that the French authorities will soon identify the perpetrators.”

10. We’ve Forgotten Trump’s Shooter Already

The "fumbling bureaucrat" is the focus.

Thomas Matthew Crooks, in his yearbook photo. (REUTERS/Aaron Josefczyk)

We’ve Forgotten Trump’s Shooter Already

https://www.thefp.com/p/weve-forgotten-trumps-shooter-already

In the story we’re telling about the assassination attempt, the villain is a fumbling bureaucrat—not the man who pulled the trigger.

By Kat Rosenfield

July 24, 2024

Can you remember the name of the man who nearly killed Donald Trump?

What about the guy who shot Reagan? Or the man who killed JFK?

John Hinckley Jr. and Lee Harvey Oswald are infamous. But despite having seen or heard it dozens of times over the past two weeks, I just had to look up the name of Thomas Matthew Crooks.

I suspect I’m not alone: few people seem to have committed Crooks’s name to memory, and even more will have forgotten it by the time the election rolls around. There are a variety of reasons for this, chief among them that the incident follows the inverse of the formula that makes an assassination famous. Unlike JFK, Trump survived the attempt on his life; unlike John Hinkley Jr., Crooks was shot dead within seconds. There will be no state funeral—and also no trial.

Instead, the only person held accountable thus far has been Secret Service director Kimberly A. Cheatle, who resigned Tuesday after a disastrous congressional hearing in which she admitted that the incident was one of the most catastrophic failures in her agency’s history. And rather than a story about the lone gunman who nearly made a martyr of the former president, the assassination attempt has become the tale of a fumbling bureaucrat whose inept leadership came with a body count.

Meanwhile, Crooks has faded from view, not just because he’s dead, but because he makes for a poor villain in this national drama. The last ten days of reporting have yielded nothing except more questions; the shooter remains a cipher with no clear motive nor ideology. There was no shout of ”Sic semper tyrannis” as he let the bullets fly, no manifesto left behind on a hard drive, not even a discernible affiliation with this or that political tribe. The Wall Street Journal reported that Crooks “appeared to care more about the act itself than about the target,” noting that he had searched for information about upcoming appearances by both Trump and President Biden before attempting to kill the former.

Indeed, it seems like the most political thing about this act of violence is not the motivations behind it, but everyone else’s response to it. Googling Crooks’s name returns, among other results, a Yahoo News headline that reads “Registered Republican and Gun Lover Who Shot Trump,” which conjures the image of an editor somewhere putting an extra-large thumb on the scale: This guy was one of yours, not one of ours. Yesterday, Representative Jerry Nadler (D-NY) said: “If you think this one assassin’s bullet was a bolt out of the blue, and not part of a wave of violence that has threatened the nation for years, then you have missed the point of what my Democratic colleagues and I have been imploring you to hear for some time.”

Meanwhile, in the wake of the shooting, Republicans made equally energetic attempts to blame left-wing rhetoric for inspiring the assassination attempt. You've spent the past eight years telling the world that Trump is literally Hitler; what did you think would happen? “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination,” wrote J.D. Vance in the wake of the shooting.

If the spectacle of Republicans leaping to politicize the shooting is distasteful, it is also understandable, after nearly a decade of being treated as guilty by association for various acts of violence—including ones that exist purely in the imaginations of their political opponents. There’s an entire category of progressive journalism predicated on the fantasy that every white American male under the age of 30 is a Manchurian candidate for the radical right, just awaiting his trigger phrase. In 2019, there was the moral panic surrounding Joker, which critics fretted would give a free pass to incels to commit wanton acts of violence. At the same time, outlets including The New York Times were warning their readers to closely monitor the YouTube habits of their teenage sons, lest they be seduced by the siren song of white supremacy buried within the algorithm.

And in 2022, when a psychotic man attacked the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi at their home in California, many of my fellow liberals insisted that Republican rhetoric was to blame—and that to even mention the attacker's obvious mental illness as a mitigating factor was to be an apologist for the wrong side.

The aforementioned events reflect a widespread, bipartisan conviction that acts of violence are not merely the responsibility of those who perpetrate them. Someone like Thomas Matthew Crooks is just an exploding powder keg; the real culpability lies with whoever uttered the words that lit his fuse.

I understand the appeal of this mindset, which suggests not only that acts of violence are within our capability to prevent, but that the way to prevent them, conveniently, is to silence a group of people whose voices you already hated hearing in the first place. I also understand the desperate desire to believe that life-shattering violence must have some kind of deeper meaning, must make some kind of sense—and that, as such, it could be prevented if we just trace it back to its roots in rhetoric, in art, in expression.

But this is a delusion—and not just in the case of Crooks. Ask a killer why he did it, or tried to, and the answer is often unsatisfying.

Because she cut me off in traffic.

Because she wouldn’t stop nagging.

Because if I kill the president, Jodie Foster will finally notice me.

Most real violence is not just senseless, but depthless, a lizard-brained impulse in search of an outlet. The person who breaks into a stranger's home, naked, and attacks him with a hammer; or who wanders into a campaign rally after a cursory Google search and fires three bullets at the head of whoever happens to be onstage—these are people who had something monstrous inside of them, something that would find any twisted justification for letting itself out. A story. A song. A news article. An ominous pattern in the noise of the washing machine.

Sometimes these people are victims themselves, of psychosis; sometimes they’re impulsive or sadistic or sociopathic. But to construct a political narrative around someone like this—someone like Thomas Matthew Crooks—is to indulge in pure and self-serving projection.

To that end, the bipartisan consensus regarding Cheatle’s culpability is refreshing—and even encouraging. It feels like a tacit acknowledgment of not just the senseless nature of violence, but that there’s a difference between preventing harm and protecting people from it. The truth is, there is no way of knowing who will hear the voice of the devil whispering between the lines of a book or song or spin cycle—until it’s too late, and he has a gun in his hands. The only thing we can do is do our best to make sure he never gets the chance to fire it.

Kat Rosenfield is a columnist at The Free Press. Read her piece, “No, Kamala Harris Is Not ‘Brat’ ” and follow her on X @katrosenfield.

11. Olympic Ceremonies on the Seine were a daring feat. Paris stuck the landing.

(unless you are from Korea and they get your name wrong :-) )

Olympic Ceremonies on the Seine were a daring feat. Paris stuck the landing.

Paris transformed into a spectacular stage — and demonstrated that bold thinking could bring a shine back to a global event that has seen its popularity slump.

The Washington Post · by Claire Parker · July 26, 2024

PARIS — France’s audacious plan to open the Paris Olympic Games on the Seine raised plenty of eyebrows before Friday night’s ceremonies.

Detractors worried about security, about crowd management, about the logistics of moving 85 boats carrying 6,800 athletes down the Seine. Coordinated arson attacks on France’s high-speed rail network Thursday night further raised anxieties about unwelcome disruptions.

But in the end, Paris transformed itself into a spectacular stage — and demonstrated that bold thinking could bring a certain shine back to a global sporting event that has seen its popularity slump in recent years.

A century after the 1924 Paris Olympics, the Opening Ceremonies on Friday represented a return to the host’s seat for France. And after two pandemic Olympics, muted and virtually spectator-less, they marked a triumphant revival of the spectacle of the Games: colorful, convivial, flashy and weird — a dynamic blend of ardent patriotism and glitzy internationalism.

When France bid to host this Olympics in 2016, it envisioned a traditional ceremony in the Stade de France. But in the years that followed, organizers began brainstorming creative ways to weave the Games throughout the city — and for the Opening Ceremonies, there was no site more iconic and special than the Seine.

Thomas Jolly, the ceremonies’ artistic director, wrote that his vision aimed to showcase the Parisian river’s “power to grant wishes and its power to heal” at a time of global conflict and after local tragedy, including the 2019 fire that severely damaged Notre Dame Cathedral. The famous church, a symbol of France to many, featured prominently at the start of the ceremonies, when performers hung from scaffolding and rang the bells for the first time since the fire.

“Paris is back on its feet, jubilant, flamboyant, creative and open. Free,” Jolly wrote.

For more than four hours Friday night, it was all of that.

Eschewing the timeworn choreography of a show followed by an athletes’ parade, Paris interspersed performances with the delegations’ river procession. The program progressed through 12 “artistic tableaux,” with themes such as “liberty,” “sisterhood” and “darkness,” each showcasing aspects of French history, culture and craftsmanship. Moulin Rouge dancers and the Mona Lisa made an appearance — as did acrobats, fashion models and a scene from “Les Misérables.”

It was a star-studded event: Lady Gaga, wearing pink feathers, sang the cabaret classic “Mon Truc en Plumes.” The metal band Gojira and pop star Aya Nakamura brought French flavor. Céline Dion closed out the ceremonies with a stirring rendition of “Hymn to Love” after an epic Eiffel Tower light show.

The decision to hold the Opening Ceremonies on the river represented a bold — and risky — divergence from the norm.

“Hubris is the word which can come to mind,” political analyst François Heisbourg said. “It’s a big organizational challenge, a big security challenge and big reputational challenge if you don’t play it safe. The French decided not to play it safe.”

Friday got off to an ignominious start. The arson attacks caused severe disruptions to travel just hours before the Opening Ceremonies were slated to begin. Gabriel Attal, the French caretaker prime minister, said Friday that “acts of sabotage” were carried out in a “prepared and coordinated manner,” hitting lines running east, west and north of Paris. But local transport in the Paris region wasn’t affected. (It still isn’t clear who was behind the attack; the public prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation.)

Literal rain clouds also gathered overhead, leaving questions throughout the day about whether the outdoor ceremony would lose its promised luster.

At the Trocadero esplanade Friday night, spectators sheltered from the downpour under ponchos and umbrellas. Technical staff spoke frantically into their intercoms when two of the six big screens — including one that French President Emmanuel Macron and other world leaders were watching — briefly went black.

Some journalists left early to search for drier filing spaces. But many spectators, some of whom had paid thousands of dollars for the coveted Trocadero seats, remained undeterred and enthusiastic.

There was no dramatic sunset over the Seine. But the performances — spanning riverbanks, bridges, watercraft and rooftops — went off without a hitch.

Much could have gone wrong with an open-air, miles-long boat procession. Paris has been a frequent target of terrorism; attacks by Islamist extremists in November 2015 killed 130 people and wounded more than 400 others. Israel’s war in Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have stoked geopolitical tensions. The 1972 Munich Olympics, in which Palestinian militants killed 11 Israeli athletes and coaches, loomed large as a worst-case scenario.

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said Friday that more than 50,000 security officers had been deployed for the Opening Ceremonies, including French police and soldiers, private contractors and foreign security personnel loaned from about 50 countries. Israeli athletes, some of whom received threats in the lead-up to the Olympics, were under extra protection.

An AI-powered surveillance center was also engaged to detect sudden crowd movements, abandoned objects or people lying on the ground — an endeavor designed to thwart an attack like the bombing at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta.

French authorities were clearly on edge, evacuating multiple sites around Paris throughout the day Friday due to bomb scares.

Drones represented another possible threat. French authorities closed the airspace within around 100 miles of Paris at 6:30 p.m. local time (12:30 p.m. Eastern time), a “historic” move that shut down air traffic from Paris-area airports until midnight local time. The French military coordinated anti-drone operations from a base southwest of Paris, deploying dozens of teams with anti-drone equipment.

To secure the parade route, authorities took the dramatic step of locking down the Seine with a system of barricades that cut off access to the river for many locals. Workers began installing the chain-link fences and closing off bridges along the river last Thursday, eight days before the ceremonies. Joggers taking early morning runs on the riverbanks had to scramble back through checkpoints. Bicyclists saw their routes suddenly cut off. Traffic near the river backed up, and roads became impassable.

France did everything right from a security perspective, Heisbourg said. But the fortresslike perimeter around the Seine flew in the face of Paris’s “Games Wide Open” pledge to make the Olympics accessible, and particularly for Parisians, he added.

Many Parisians with the means headed out of town before the Opening Ceremonies began, an exodus that was complicated by the arson attacks on train lines. But others stayed to take in the show in their hometown.

At Parc Clichy Batignolles Martin Luther King, a small plot of grass in northern Paris, the epic Opening Ceremonies became a community festival. Fans sat in folding chairs and on blankets in front of a stage and a large screen. Families played cards around picnic tables. A man waved a Chilean flag. One woman had Norway’s colors painted on her face. The rain did not dampen the spirits of a group sporting Swiss-flag bucket hats, who began dancing and singing along to “It’s Raining Men.”

Jeffrey Juilly, 45, and Nadia Got, 39, were among the Parisians standing in line at a beer tent at the park. Juilly acknowledged that city residents were divided on the benefits of the Olympics.

“A lot of people complained,” Got said. But they counted themselves among the excited half of the city, taking pride in the audacity of using the Seine.

What did they hope the Opening Ceremonies would show the world? “The wonder of Paris,” Juilly said.

In addition to making better use of existing infrastructure than previous host cities had, Paris 2024 organizers pledged to ensure the Games would benefit residents of marginalized neighborhoods in the region.

At a watch party in Saint-Denis, the low-income French suburb where the Stade de France — a major Olympic venue — is located, residents cheered when Lady Gaga appeared on screen. At a cafe down the street, Mounia Seddiki, 23, was trying to get into the Olympic spirit. She bemoaned the heavy traffic the Opening Ceremonies had caused, and how complicated she’d found it to buy tickets to the competitions. But as officials have invested more in Saint-Denis to prepare for the Olympics, the streets have become safer, she said.

Some eight miles away, as the parade of Olympic delegations continued down the Seine toward the Eiffel Tower, athletes on board the boats looked progressively wetter. By the time Team USA came into view, the rain had soaked through the athletes’ hair and Ralph Lauren blazers. But they still smiled wide and snapped selfies as night descended over the river.

Notably absent from the boats: teams from Russia and Belarus. The International Olympic Committee imposed sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Russian Olympic federation was suspended for trying to claim athletes in seized Ukrainian territories as their own. Some Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed in the Paris Games, but only as what the IOC calls “independent neutral athletes.” They weren’t allowed to join the Opening Ceremonies.

Despite the IOC’s official commitment to neutrality, the Olympics are always political — and these Games, particularly so, with calls for Israeli athletes to be excluded in light of Israel’s destructive war in Gaza.

At the conclusion of the Ceremonies, framed by the arch of the Eiffel Tower, and shielded by an umbrella, Tony Estanguet, a former French canoeist and the head of the Paris 2024 organizing committee, offered a message of unity to the athletes gathered before him.

“Even though the Games cannot solve every problem, even though discrimination and conflicts are not about to disappear, tonight you have reminded us how beautiful humanity is when we come together,” he said. “And when you return to the Olympic Village, you will be sending a message of hope to the whole world: That there is a place where people of every nationality, every culture and every religion can live together. You’ll be reminding us of what’s possible.”

Adam Kilgore, Les Carpenter, Candace Buckner, Barry Svrluga and Emily Giambalvo in Paris contributed to this report.

The Washington Post · by Claire Parker · July 26, 2024

12. Russia, adapting tactics, advances in Donetsk and takes more Ukrainian land

Excerpts:

“This new push in the Donetsk region is very interesting as it indicates that there is wider operational planning change,” said Karolina Hird, an analyst at ISW. “Meaningful advance was previously inhibited by Russian tactical blunders and they’ve struggled to strategize in the last few years.”

“Having previously just thrown men at prolonged, high casualty efforts,” she continued, “Russian operational commanders are now learning how to do simultaneous and mutual reinforcing offensive efforts and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian resources.”

Ukraine’s depleted forces are feeling the pressure, worsened by the sweltering summer heat, with temperatures spiking earlier this month to more than 104 degrees in some areas of the front.

Russia, adapting tactics, advances in Donetsk and takes more Ukrainian land

The new offensive focus comes as Ukraine faces depleted forces, sweltering heat and turmoil in a potentially consequential U.S. election.

By Francesca Ebel and Serhii Korolchuk

July 27, 2024 at 1:00 a.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Francesca Ebel · July 27, 2024

POKROVSK, Ukraine — Russian forces have mounted an arc of attack in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, pushing through intense summer heat in a bid to extend Moscow’s steady territorial gains and capture the city of Pokrovsk, a key transit junction.

The offensive is underway as Ukraine continues to suffer from a shortage of soldiers and as election turmoil in the United States has set off new speculation that Kyiv may soon be forced to negotiate a surrender of lands.

After an influx of American weapons and money helped Ukraine blunt a renewed invasion of the northeast Kharkiv region in May, preventing a major breakthrough and dashing Moscow’s hopes of surrounding Ukraine’s second-largest city, Russian commanders have refocused their attention on the Donetsk region, perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top territorial goal.

The reinvasion of the Kharkiv region, while yielding limited gains, nonetheless diverted Ukrainian resources. Oleksandr, 30, a battalion commander of the 47th brigade, fighting near Ocheretyne, said that Ukrainian forces are struggling and that Putin’s prize increasingly seems within Russia’s reach.

“This strategy is clever: You try to concentrate the strength of your enemy in one direction and then distract them at another,” said Oleksandr, whose call sign is “Genius” and who is being identified only by first name in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.

“Their first objective is to destroy us,” he said. “The second is to push us so that they can get more leverage for peace talks and get more from us. They are almost at the point of capturing the Donetsk region.”

Putin’s troops are now pressing along an arc of three key points: Chasiv Yar, just west of the city of Bakhmut, which Russia captured in spring 2023; the small industrial city of Toretsk; and in rural terrain west of Ocheretyne, a village on strategic high ground seized in May after Russian forces advanced northwest from Avdiivka, which they occupied in February.

While there is intense fighting elsewhere, including in Kupyansk in the northeast and on some spots along the southern front, the offensive in Donetsk represents a notable shift in tactics by Russian commanders who appear to have learned from past mistakes and are now achieving steady gains for the Kremlin, also threatening the Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka, which sits on a strategic highway.

This week, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported that Ukraine halted a large mechanized assault by Russian forces near Kostiantynivka, resulting in a significant loss of Russian equipment. On Friday, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that the “hottest situation” remained near Pokrovsk.

“This new push in the Donetsk region is very interesting as it indicates that there is wider operational planning change,” said Karolina Hird, an analyst at ISW. “Meaningful advance was previously inhibited by Russian tactical blunders and they’ve struggled to strategize in the last few years.”

“Having previously just thrown men at prolonged, high casualty efforts,” she continued, “Russian operational commanders are now learning how to do simultaneous and mutual reinforcing offensive efforts and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian resources.”

Ukraine’s depleted forces are feeling the pressure, worsened by the sweltering summer heat, with temperatures spiking earlier this month to more than 104 degrees in some areas of the front.

Ukrainian commanders and soldiers interviewed by The Post cited exhaustion and dwindling resources, including a severe lack of troops. A new mobilization law adopted by Ukraine’s parliament has yet to provide desperately needed reinforcements, as new conscripts are still undergoing training, and some draft-eligible men have fled the country or are hiding at home to avoid conscription.

One sergeant, 56, who goes by the call sign “Bart,” described the situation as “critical” and said there was “serious chaos” on the front lines. He blamed failures in leadership decisions, including cases of Ukrainian and Russian forces mixing up their positions.

Mikhail, 46, the commander of a mortar battery fighting in Krasnogorivka, who goes by the call sign “Brain,” said that reconnaissance had shown that Russia recently “raised the bar” around Ocheretyne and committed significant resources, including more troops and tanks.

Last week, Russian forces managed to advance four miles west from Ocheretyne, forcing the retreat of a Ukrainian infantry brigade holding the line in the village of Prohres.

Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade was forced into a “chaotic retreat” due to a lack of soldiers.

Some of the most intense fighting of the summer is now underway around the industrial city of Toretsk, where Russia has made significant tactical gains.

Commanders and military analysts said the purpose of that fighting, and Russian assaults on the nearby city of Niu-York, was to put pressure on Ukraine’s fatigued infantry units, with the aim of breaking through to Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian soldiers said the Russian forces near Toretsk appeared to be using the same strategy used to capture Avdiivka in February after months of heavy fighting. There, the Russians enveloped the Ukrainians from three sides, while simultaneously exhausting them by relentlessly dropping glide bombs from above.

Now, in addition to incessant bombing and drone attacks, extreme heat is depleting soldiers living in trenches in Ukraine’s forests and wide-open fields. And clear blue skies mean that soldiers are even more exposed to reconnaissance and attack drones.

Some Russian forces are also moving west and north through the town of Kurakhove. If they capture Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, the entire Donetsk region would be in peril.

Several Ukrainian commanders cited an acceleration in drone warfare as one of the principal challenges on the battlefield, with Russia having significantly increased its electronic jamming capabilities to erase Ukraine’s previous advantage using first-person view, or FPV, drones.

“What has changed tremendously is their drone tactics and their use of electronic warfare. We used to have the upper hand and were more efficient, but now this is not the case,” Mikhail said.

Serhii, 29, the commander of a drone unit working in Niu-York, who goes by the call sign “Shelby,” said that Ukraine is also re-engineering drones to carry out demining and new kinds of assaults. For example, he said, engineers had attached antitank mines to heavy duty Kazhan drones.

Many vehicles in Donbas are now fitted with antennas, indicating they carry drone-jamming equipment. Soldiers also use small black boxes known as “sugars,” radars that identify and warn of circling drones. Sugars didn’t exist in Ukraine a year ago but are now common.

Ukrainian soldiers also noted an increase in the use of aviation bombs, especially Soviet-era glide bombs, around Chasiv Yar and Niu-York, which they said was causing significant damage and affecting morale. Some weigh 6,600 pounds and can destroy infantry positions and buildings with catastrophic effect.

Eugene, 41, a drone pilot working in Niu-York, said that while Russian commanders were still relying on “meat assault” tactics — sending waves of often underprepared, recent conscripts at a target — they also are applying new “scorched earth” tactics to obliterate entire towns.

“The Russians are hitting Niu-York with aviation bombs and artillery to completely obliterate entire quadrants of the city so that they can move troops in,” Serhii, the drone commander, said.

Pasha, 34, a drone commander fighting with the 105th brigade, described the situation in Niu-York as “really hard.”

“They are using Niu-York to encircle Toretsk — and I think they have a real chance now of encircling it, it’s just a question of resources and timing,” Pasha said. The glide bombs are so powerful, they can incapacitate entire infantry units with concussions, he said.

Hird, of the Institute for the Study of War, said that Russia was unlikely to succeed despite its recent gains.

“Russia has not demonstrated that it can effectively perform mechanized advances and take large swaths of territory, so it is unlikely they’d be able to take the whole of Donbas by force,” she said. Still, she said, a slow, grinding, attritional conflict was more beneficial to Moscow as Ukrainian morale flags and future Western support is called into doubt.

Siobhán O’Grady in Kyiv contributed to this report.

The Washington Post · by Francesca Ebel · July 27, 2024

13. With 11th trip, Austin works to cement legacy in Indo-Pacific

With 11th trip, Austin works to cement legacy in Indo-Pacific

Defense News · by Noah Robertson · July 26, 2024

In the last four years, Pentagon leaders have often described their efforts in Asia with a Woody Allen quote:

“A key part of success is just showing up.”

They have numbers to back it up. When Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin heads to the Indo-Pacific on Friday, he will be on his 11th trip to the strategically vital region — the second-most of any secretary this century.

But the trip will also test the endurance of that presence.

‘All in’: Austin defends US focus on Indo-Pacific amid global upheaval

In the last three years, the U.S. has expanded its number of security partners, deepened existing agreements and encouraged them to work closely together.

President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for reelection has scrambled the 2024 race, making it harder for America’s allies to predict who they will be working with come January. It also marks a new era for officials in the Pentagon, who are trying to secure their work with partners around the region.

Nowhere is this more true than in Japan and the Philippines, where Austin will join Secretary of State Antony Blinken for a week of meetings. These two countries are part of a renaissance in Indo-Pacific security, in which states are hedging against Beijing and working with each other more often.

The summit is about making this progress last, multiple analysts said, even if America’s next president remains uncertain.

Much of American’s success in shoring up its network of Indo-Pacific allies comes down to a rare alignment of America-friendly leaders in the region and a focused White House, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on U.S. strategy in Asia.

“They want to take as much advantage of that [alignment] as possible,” Cooper said.

10 days

In a briefing just before the trip, senior defense officials outlined the meetings planned for the next two weeks and what they hope to get out of them.

“We’re about to kick off the 10 most consequential days for U.S. defense ties in the Indo-Pacific since the start of the administration,” a senior Pentagon official said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will join Austin for a week of meetings in Japan and the Philippines. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

Austin will meet with his Japanese and Philippine counterparts, along with those from India and Australia — some one-on-one and some in groups. In addition, defense officials from Japan, South Korea and the U.S. will meet in Tokyo. It’s the first time such a forum has occurred in either Japan or South Korea, which until recently were feuding over the legacy of Japan’s colonial rule on the Korean Peninsula.

In those meetings, the Pentagon plans to announce a variety of new ways that each military will work together.

Japan is doubling its defense budget and growing the narrow role of its Self Defense Forces. As Tokyo’s military prepares to take on larger roles, the U.S. is restructuring its command in Japan so that the two can coordinate better.

The two countries will agree to build or repair more weapons together, including planes, ships and missiles — particularly those for Patriot, an air defense system that has proven crucial to Ukraine’s self-defense.

And lastly, the U.S. and Japan will discuss military operations in the southwest Japanese islands, where Tokyo is permanently basing soldiers for the first time. The U.S. would like to eventually send troops of its own there as it tries to spread its forces around the region, but such efforts have been met with local reluctance.

In the Philippines, the U.S. will announce $500 million in long-term security aid, meant to help Manila defend against China in the South China Sea. The two countries will also agree on a “road map” of military spending over the next five to 10 years, work on a plan to securely share information and discuss new military sites where the U.S. can operate.

Institutionalizing

While addressing logistical issues involving basing and partnerships, Austin’s trip will also seek to buttress the work America has done in Asia over the last four years, according to Victor Cha, a former Asia official for the National Security Council during the George W. Bush presidency.

“What the administration has been good at is to try to institutionalize these things so they can outlast this administration,” Cha said.

Much of that work, he said, has involved gathering together small groups of countries in the region. Another defense official speaking before the trip said to expect even more of that, with the U.S. seeking to set a tempo for how often these countries — such as Japan and South Korea — will meet.

U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, left, sails with South Korean and Japanese naval ships in a joint drill in 2024. Defense officials from the three countries will meet in Tokyo, the first time such a forum has occurred in either Japan or South Korea. (South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff via AP)

The first official argued that, while U.S. policy on China is not uniform, it has become much more bipartisan on Capitol Hill as the threat from Beijing becomes clearer.

If there’s one area that the Donald Trump and Biden administrations have mostly agreed on, it’s been a strong stance against Beijing. Trump was close to the leaders of Japan and Australia, and helped push the increased China focus.

It’s not clear whether future leaders in the region will show the same patience — particularly in Japan, where former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe famously never responded when criticized by Trump.

But the forces motivating their cooperation aren’t likely to change. China has become more aggressive around the Philippines and Taiwan. And North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons, spooking Japan and South Korea.

On the eve of what could be Austin’s last official trip to the region, the secretary noted the Pentagon’s wins in Asia during his tenure at a press conference this week, even China itself played a role in those as well.

“They’ve achieved more in three-and-a-half years than Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump did,” said Michael Green, a former National Security Council member. “A lot of that is thanks to Xi Jinping.”

About Noah Robertson

Noah Robertson is the Pentagon reporter at Defense News. He previously covered national security for the Christian Science Monitor. He holds a bachelor’s degree in English and government from the College of William & Mary in his hometown of Williamsburg, Virginia.

14. America’s Political Chaos Is Enviable When You Live in an Autocracy

Yes, everyone is surprised that someone put their country above self and power.

As frustrating as it is for us as Americans, our chaotic democracy is better than the alternative and we should all embrace that.

Churchill said democracy is the worst form of government, except for all others.

Conclusion:

Biden is not going to bring down the Chinese Communist Party on the strength of his example of democratic humility, and in China, as in the United States, debate continues to rage over whether the Democratic Party’s process of replacing him was truly democratic. But his willingness to cede the nomination, in response to the judgment of his party and its constituents, may be his last and most vivid statement to the people of China about how revolutionary American democracy can be in a world where leaders more often suppress public opinion than heed it.

America’s Political Chaos Is Enviable When You Live in an Autocracy

Chinese social media is fascinated with Biden’s decision to step aside.

By Michael Schuman

The Atlantic · by Michael Schuman · July 26, 2024

American democracy can be raucous, unpredictable, even chaotic—as evidenced by President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw his candidacy for president, throwing an already volatile election year into tumult. So it might surprise Americans to know that observers in China’s repressive autocracy find something in all of this to envy.

“The fact that unsuitable candidates can withdraw from the election shows that the American democratic system is still vibrant,” one commentator wrote on the Chinese social-media platform Weibo. The president’s decision “shows that his personal honor and disgrace are secondary to the future of the United States.” Another wrote that “regardless of the final election results, the country’s self-correction mechanism is still there, which is good.”

American politics, even at their most disruptive, have a responsive quality that is key to the country’s soft power—the je ne sais quoi of the U.S. democratic system that upholds American global influence. Chinese leaders know this. They routinely attack Western-style democracy as disorderly and ineffective compared with China’s supposedly stable, harmonious politics. But they have also co-opted the word democracy to lend legitimacy to their own system, which they call “whole-process people’s democracy.”

Read: The dramatic contrast of Biden’s last act

The Chinese foreign ministry declined to comment on the change of Democratic nominee for U.S. president, but the country’s propaganda machine has been quick to extract a cautionary tale about the American system. The state news agency Xinhua posted an article arguing that Biden’s decision “once again exposes the embarrassing reality of American politics” and “the chaos and nature of the American political party interests and money-driven elections.” A post on a social-media account linked to CCTV, a state-owned broadcaster, proclaimed, “Whether it is the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, the interests of the American people are not important at all.”

On social media, the Chinese people are debating the meaning of Biden’s withdrawal and the events that led to it just as Americans are. Some commenters echo their government’s skepticism—and for that matter, the view of many U.S. critics. Biden was forced to step aside, one opined on Weibo, because “the most important thing for the election is ‘bigwig support’ and financial support.”

But others share a different perception. In a country where the majority is excluded from an opaque political process that can’t even be discussed publicly without risk, the openness of the American presidential campaign is a topic of fascination. Biden’s withdrawal sparked a torrent of commentary about the various players, the party’s machinations, and the possible results. “Public opinion really works,” one Chinese poster exclaimed. “America’s democratic system is still valid,” wrote another. Biden’s exit reflected “a change in the will of the people,” still another argued, and “the American people’s desire for change and seeking a new atmosphere.”

The contrast with China’s system couldn’t be starker. Mao Zedong, the founder of the current Communist regime, clung to power for 27 years, until his death, even though his disastrous policies paralyzed the economy, sparked widespread violence, and killed tens of millions in a catastrophic famine. Others meet more nefarious ends. Last year, Qin Gang, then the foreign minister, vanished from public view, never to be heard from again, for some undisclosed offense. For a while, the Communist Party had presidents serve two five-year terms and then cede their position to newcomers. But the current leader, Xi Jinping, has done away with that practice. In 2018, he removed the term limit on the presidency from the constitution, as he apparently has no intention of going anywhere. How his successor will eventually be chosen remains a matter of speculation.

In such an environment, far less consequential acts than Biden’s withdrawal can score points for democratic transparency. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China last year and created a social-media stir simply by dining with U.S. officials at a regular restaurant in Beijing’s fashionable Sanlitun neighborhood, in full view of the other patrons. The dishes on her table drew such great interest that the restaurant began offering them as the “God of Money Menu.” Similarly, when Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Shanghai a year ago, a Chinese girl galloped over to her for a hug, and before long, videos of the encounter were all over the Chinese internet. Chinese leaders of such high rank generally live cloistered lives and rarely make unscripted public appearances, so hobnobbing with the locals attracts attention.

Read: A candidate, not a cult leader

Biden is not going to bring down the Chinese Communist Party on the strength of his example of democratic humility, and in China, as in the United States, debate continues to rage over whether the Democratic Party’s process of replacing him was truly democratic. But his willingness to cede the nomination, in response to the judgment of his party and its constituents, may be his last and most vivid statement to the people of China about how revolutionary American democracy can be in a world where leaders more often suppress public opinion than heed it.

The Atlantic · by Michael Schuman · July 26, 2024

15. Russians, Fleeing War, Find Haven in the Cafes and Beaches of South America

Russians, Fleeing War, Find Haven in the Cafes and Beaches of South America

Immigrants are settling in Brazil and Argentina, buying up apartments and opening beauty salons and restaurants

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/russians-fleeing-war-find-haven-in-the-cafes-and-beaches-of-south-america-23e9d26e?mod=latest_headlines

By Ryan DubéFollow

and Samantha PearsonFollow

| Photos by Anita Pouchard Serra for WSJ

July 27, 2024 5:30 am ET

BUENOS AIRES—At Bucarest Gastro Bar, the waiters speak Russian as customers forgo the local rib-eye for skewered meat called shashlik.

Russians who left their homeland since their country invaded Ukraine rock out to a Russian band. Others drink vodka and smoke tobacco in a hookah, popular in their homeland.

“Here, my children are free. I’m free,” said the bar’s co-owner, Dmitrii Prianikov, in halting Spanish. The 42-year-old has an all too familiar tale to tell: He arrived in Argentina two years ago with his wife and children from a Russian region that borders Ukraine—and is frequently hit by drone attacks.

Dmitrii Prianikov at Bucarest Gastro Bar, which he owns in Buenos Aires.

With Russia’s economy isolated and Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime seeking conscripts, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. They first went to Armenia, Turkey and nearby countries, nations where the long hand of Moscow’s security services felt close.

Now, many of those immigrants are taking advantage of relaxed entry rules and beneficial immigration laws and settling in Argentina and Brazil, mostly in the Argentine capital and the Brazilian coastal city of Florianópolis, an idyllic collection of islands covered in lush forest in the country’s far south. Both cities, located thousands of miles from Russia, have long been magnets for European immigrants fleeing conflict and poverty.

In Argentina, the center of the new Little Russia community is spread across Palermo, Belgrano and other neighborhoods of Buenos Aires known for their hip restaurants and youthful residents. The newcomers have opened Russian-speaking beauty salons, restaurants, daycare centers and small theaters. Others are digital nomads, working in Russian and paid in foreign currencies or crypto.

Florianópolis is partly made up of a large island featuring caipirinha-soaked lounges and fashionable beach restaurants. Brazil’s neutral stance on the Ukraine invasion, coupled with Brazilians’ noticeable lack of interest in the war, has made it easier to fit in.

Florianópolis, Brazil

Many Russians have settled in the Palermo neighborhood of Buenos Aires.

“People have just been so kind, that’s the best part,” said Alexey Yushko, a website developer and avid surfer from Moscow now in Florianópolis. Some of Russia’s best surfers were among the first from their country to arrive in the Brazilian city of 500,000, he said.

About 60,000 Russian citizens entered Brazil between the beginning of March 2022 and the end of last year, according to government data. They invested more than $300 million, mainly in property, according to estimates based on official data by Hayman-Woodward, a global advisory firm on immigration.

Some 36,000 Ukrainians have also entered Brazil during the same period, many settling in the south.

The new arrivals from Russia say they are attracted to the city’s cooler climes and a crime rate lower than that of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Brazil’s southern states are already home to descendants of the many Russian Jews and those with German heritage who immigrated after the past century’s two world wars.

“They’re looking for somewhere that has some similarities with where they are from,” said Leonardo Freitas, Hayman-Woodward’s chief executive, explaining why most arrivals had picked Brazil’s south, now in the midst of winter.

The first wave of Russians included pregnant women attracted to Argentina because it provides immediate citizenship to newborns and temporary residency and work permits for their parents, putting them on a fast track to citizenship.

At the Bucarest Gastro Bar earlier this month.

The Smart School is an educational center in Buenos Aires catering to Russian-speaking children.

Brazil also provides perks for new parents, allowing immigrants to apply for citizenship after giving birth in the country, providing them with a passport that allows them to bypass growing travel restrictions on Russians. The European Union has restricted Russian citizens from visiting the 27-nation bloc by toughening visa requirements. But Argentines and Brazilians enter Europe visa-free.

The ease of obtaining citizenship in the South American countries has caught the attention of Western officials after Russian spies were found creating fake identities in Argentina to conduct espionage in Europe.

Brazil’s Justice Ministry said the right to citizenship in these cases was guaranteed by the country’s constitution, adding that Brazil always strives to integrate migrants. Argentina’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Anna Mikhailov with her son in Florianópolis.

In Argentina, more than 75,000 Russians have entered since the war began, government migration data shows. During the same period, about 11,000 Ukrainians have also entered Argentina, which has a large Ukrainian community with roots dating back to the 19th century. That community has sent medicine, clothing and other aid to Ukraine since the war began.

In Buenos Aires, recent Russian arrivals have little contact with the established Ukrainian community, said Jorge Danylyszyn, the head of a Ukrainian cultural association in Argentina. While some have joined antiwar protests in front of the Russian Embassy, most of the immigrants don’t want to get involved, he said.

“They stop in front of our organization’s doorway, read the protest signs that we put up, and keep on walking,” he said. Still, there isn’t tension between the groups, he said. “The conflict is in Ukraine, not in Argentina.”

Anna and Grigorii Mikhailov on Ingleses beach in Florianópolis.

Grigorii Mikhailov learned his wife was pregnant with their first child two days before hostilities. “When the war broke out we were in shock,” he said. “We knew we had to leave Russia. I was afraid I would be called up or would end up in prison.”

Mikhailov explained how the couple grabbed their Welsh corgi, Fred, and fled to Thailand to stay with friends. After struggling to get authorization to live there, a friend in Florianópolis tipped them off about Brazil’s generous immigration laws. The couple was soon on a plane to Latin America.

Ksenia Romantsova, a 28-year-old from St. Petersburg, Russia, gave birth to a baby daughter last year after moving to Buenos Aires.

She and her husband, a chef, opened a restaurant called Musgo that uses ingredients from Patagonia in Scandinavian- and Asian-inspired dishes. They are in the process of getting Argentine citizenship.

“We feel very comfortable here,” said Romantsova.

Both Brazil and Argentina are welcoming to same-sex couples. Argentina was the first Latin American country to recognize same-sex marriage. In Russia, the Supreme Court has deemed the international LGBT movement as extremist and people are fined for displaying the rainbow flag.

“It was a culture shock to see same-sex couples holding hands in public,” said Baghir Kutlugildin, a 27-year-old from Moscow who moved to Argentina with his partner. As a gay man in Russia, “nobody asks you about your personal life, and you don’t tell anyone, just very close friends. But here, I can tell anyone that I have a boyfriend.”

The day after Russia invaded Ukraine, Kutlugildin withdrew his life savings. Worried about the draft, he considered disabling himself by slamming his hand in a door or breaking a leg.

Instead, Kutlugildin and his partner left for Armenia, where they spent a few months working in a hostel before moving to Buenos Aires. Before arriving in December 2022, Kutlugildin knew little about Argentina beyond its reputation as a global soccer powerhouse and the birthplace of the tango.

Russian-language advertising for beauty products available at the Mint Lounge beauty salon in Palermo, Buenos Aires.

“I just knew it was some kind of country in South America,” he said.

Putting down roots in Argentina is a risky bet given the country’s decadeslong history of financial turmoil, including its current economic crisis. Russians have arrived as the country grapples with 272% annual inflation, one of the world’s highest, and a poverty rate that has hit 56%.

President Javier Milei, a libertarian who inherited an economy in ruin from his left-wing predecessor, has strongly supported Ukraine. One of his first meetings as head of state was with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who attended his December inauguration.

Russian immigrants, many of whom don’t speak Spanish, have had to quickly adapt to soaring prices. Mariya Azimova, 38, regularly checks the peso’s exchange rate against the dollar to set prices for the manicures and pedicures at her beauty salon, Mint Lounge, where her six employees are all Russians.

Azimova, who arrived from Moscow with her husband and 9-year-old daughter, said her family rarely travels or buys new clothes.

Mariya Azimova, who arrived from Moscow, is co-owner of the Mint Lounge.

“No excess,” she said. “We understand that now we need to work a lot.”

When Alexander Ivanov arrived in Argentina last year, he recalled that steak dinners were so cheap that he and his wife could eat out once a week. Now, it’s once a month.

Still, the 35-year-old Muscovite says he is happy in Buenos Aires, where his daughter was born last August.

Passionate about architecture and history, he makes a living as a tour guide, leading other Russian immigrants on walking tours through Buenos Aires, discussing the ornate, Parisian-inspired architecture. His favorites are the city’s brutalist structures, like the imposing Mariano Moreno National Library.

“I love this city,” he said. “You can’t be bored here.”

Alexander Ivanov leads walking tours of Buenos Aires for the Russian community.

Argentina’s economic crisis provided some Russians an opportunity to buy apartments at cut-rate prices. Local real-estate agents say Russians were among the top foreign buyers last year.

Olga Ellinskaya, a 41-year-old from Sochi, bought an apartment near Buenos Aires’s famed Teatro Colón. She now lives there with her two children, mother and partner.

She left Russia after her teenage daughter was briefly detained by police, who warned Ellinskaya to stop criticizing the war on social media. She chose Argentina after reading positive reviews on social media from other Russian immigrants.

In Buenos Aires, she now runs a play center for Russian children, who on a recent day were learning to conjugate Spanish verbs.

She said: “I never wanted to leave Russia, I never wanted to live abroad, but the situation was very dangerous.”

Silvina Frydlewsky contributed to this article.

Write to Ryan Dubé at ryan.dube@wsj.com and Samantha Pearson at samantha.pearson@wsj.com

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16. TikTok Collected U.S. Users’ Views on Gun Control, Abortion and Religion, U.S. Says

Is this to create an algorithm to be able to conduct comprehensive psychological operations targeting Americans?

TikTok Collected U.S. Users’ Views on Gun Control, Abortion and Religion, U.S. Says

Justice Department defends new law requiring the sale or ban of the popular app

https://www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-collected-u-s-users-views-on-gun-control-abortion-and-religion-u-s-says-4fcf19f6?mod=latest_headlines

By Georgia Wells

and Sadie Gurman

July 27, 2024 12:06 am ET

TikTok has defended its data-collection practices. PHOTO: PHILLIP FARAONE/GETTY IMAGES

TikTok collected data about its users’ views on sensitive topics and censored content at the direction of its China-based parent company, the Justice Department said Friday, making its most forceful case to date that the video-sharing app poses a national-security threat.

The sensitive topics TikTok tracked included the views of its U.S.-based users on gun control, abortion and religion, the Justice Department said.

The Justice Department made the details public in court filings late Friday in response to a federal lawsuit TikTok filed in May arguing that a new law requiring a sale or ban of the popular social-media app violates the free-speech rights of millions of Americans under the banner of national security. The measure bans Chinese-backed TikTok in the U.S. unless its parent company, ByteDance, divests itself of the platform by mid-January.

What Banning TikTok in the U.S. Would Look Like

Play video: What Banning TikTok in the U.S. Would Look Like

The U.S. isn’t the first country to attempt a ban on TikTok, the Chinese-owned app used by millions of Americans daily. WSJ breaks down TikTok bans and how they work in practice. Photo illustration: Annie Zhao

“The collection of data from Americans is not a protected activity,” a senior Justice Department official said in explaining the filings, many of which are classified.

The Justice Department said it based its conclusions about TikTok tracking sensitive views on the discovery of a software tool that allowed ByteDance and TikTok employees in the U.S. to collect user information based on a user’s content, including their views on subjects such as gun control, abortion and religion.

TikTok has previously defended its data-collection practices. “Safeguarding the privacy and security of people who use TikTok is one of our top priorities,” TikTok has said in the past.

Proponents of the law passed in April frame it as an effort to stop potential spying on Americans and prevent the Chinese government from influencing the content that TikTok serves to users. TikTok has said it wouldn’t comply with such demands from the Chinese government.

The Justice Department also said TikTok had a history of censoring content and manipulating its algorithm at the direction of ByteDance.

“TikTok U.S., by its own admission, is merely a conduit for content-moderation decisions made by the Chinese entities,” a Justice Department official said.

TikTok has previously said that its app’s U.S. algorithm is stored with its American partner, Oracle, and that the algorithm is trained on U.S. user data and supervised by employees within the unit, which is officially called TikTok U.S. Data Security. TikTok has said it has spent $1.5 billion on the operation.

The Justice Department said TikTok’s proposal to store U.S. user data in servers based in the U.S. isn’t sufficient to protect the data, in part because TikTok employees relied on ByteDance-developed software to share information and, at times, sent significant amounts of restricted U.S. user information over this software to colleagues in China.

Congressional representatives and TikTok supporters voicing opposition to the legislation at a press conference in March. PHOTO: CRAIG HUDSON/REUTERS

The Justice Department said it based its conclusions in part on revelations that the TikTok employees had sent significant amounts of restricted U.S. user data to colleagues in China using ByteDance’s internal communication system called Lark. ByteDance operated Lark on servers in China, which meant these communications were stored there and accessible to ByteDance employees located in China, according to the Justice Department.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that managers in the special Project Texas unit sometimes instructed employees to share data with colleagues in other parts of the company outside the unit. That data sometimes included private information such as a user’s email, birth date and IP address.

The Journal also previously reported that TikTok tracked users who watched gay content. TikTok said the dashboard that employees used to access this data has been deleted.

More than half of U.S. adults ages 18 to 29 use TikTok, according to the Pew Research Center.

Several billionaires have announced plans to bid for TikTok, but ByteDance has said it can’t and won’t sell its U.S. operations. TikTok’s suit is one of its best shots at remaining in the U.S.

Write to Georgia Wells at georgia.wells@wsj.com and Sadie Gurman at sadie.gurman@wsj.com

17. Vice President Kamala Harris’s Real-World School of Foreign Policy

Excerpt:

In sum, Harris’s foreign policy experience has been wider and deeper than many past and present candidates, and now that she has stepped into the race, voters will be listening closely for her to speak about her priorities and proposals for the future. While she will not likely break with central features of the Biden campaign, she is likely to make concerted overtures to show that she is in touch with the concerns of the younger electorate and fully cognizant of the systemic risks that climate, technology, and geopolitical tensions pose for all. If she meets that test, she may succeed in surmounting longstanding biases and doubts about a woman president. The many Americans who have said they would vote for a qualified woman will have a chance to do that—dispelling their own lingering doubts that they might see such an outcome in their lifetimes.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s Real-World School of Foreign Policy

Harris’s foreign policy experience has been far wider than recognized, equipping her to serve as the first woman president.

Blog Post by Linda Robinson

July 25, 2024 10:08 am (EST)

cfr.org · by

Seventy-six countries have had at least one woman president or prime minister, and 118 have not. The United States is among the latter group, but that may finally change with the presumptive nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate. The historic nature of this event cannot be overstated, due to the many barriers that women in politics must surmount. Should Harris win, her success will be based on her performance as a candidate and her merits for the office, which is as it should be—not because of her gender but despite her gender.

Many features of the U.S. presidential system, its electoral college, and its winner-take-all electoral rules, have made it difficult for a woman to reach the top office, despite women’s economic, professional, and educational accomplishments. The lack of national childcare and family leave and male-dominated political parties and fundraising networks count among the many structural impediments that prevent women from competing on a level playing field. But one of the most significant impediments to women winning the presidency is a persistent belief by almost half (49 percent) that men are better equipped to lead countries, simply because they are men. Digging deeper, a central component of this prejudice is skepticism that women can handle the existential life-and-death decisions posed by foreign policy crises—arguably the most critical single role of the chief executive and commander in chief. According to the Pew Research Center, 37 percent of those surveyed say men are better at national security and defense versus five percent who say women do better.

For the past three and half years, Vice President Harris has been in training for the job of leading this country. She has helped conduct U.S. foreign policy and international crisis management at the highest levels, with the explicit assignment of being ready to lead both should circumstances require her to become the pilot rather than the wing-woman. That is literally the job of the vice president. The issues that the Biden-Harris administration has faced during this term could not be more existential: Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling, the first conventional war on European soil since World War II; strengthening and expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance; confronting a rising China with strong defense and a strategy to manage the most competitive geopolitical rivalry of our time; and grappling with rapid technological and climate change that is altering the foundation and fabric of life, to mention a few of the daily challenges.

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Much of the news coverage about Vice President Harris over the past three and a half years has been more trivial than substantive, and often played into sexist and racist stereotypes. The social media screeds have been even more lamentable, and some of the more egregious slurs have been propagated by the Republican ticket. The deluge in the first week of her presidential campaign prompted House Speaker Mike Johnson to admonish his fellow Republicans to avoid such slurs and focus on her and the administration’s record. So to set the record straight, the degree to which the vice president has been front and center in the daily tasks of governing a country can be summed up in a few metrics: she has regularly participated in Cabinet meetings and emergency meetings in the White House situation room, and held frequent lunches with the president to discuss and advise him on the most pressing issues of the day.

As with her predecessors, Joe Biden, George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, and Harry Truman, Harris has been given critical substantive foreign policy portfolios to manage as vice president. As vice president, Biden handled the immigration portfolio, and he bequeathed it to Harris. Immigration is a complex issue that has evolved well beyond Central American migration in the last three years to include a deluge from failed and autocratic states like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, as well as a historic surge from non-Latin American countries reflecting global turmoil and a record number of refugees. Given that the pull factor of a broken immigration and asylum system requires congressional action to fix, the administration focused on ameliorating the “push factors” as well as stop-gap executive actions to address the border with help from origin and transit countries. The vice president led a $5 billion increase in private investment and bilateral aid to address root causes of crime, poverty, and unemployment that propel migration and set up offices in origin countries to allow asylum seekers to apply there rather than attempt the life-threatening journey through jungles alone or with coyotes who prey on the vulnerable. In the course of this work, Harris met with the heads of Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras and led the U.S. delegation at the 2022 Summit of the Americas.

Far less noticed have been the roles that Harris has played in cutting-edge issues that affect U.S. national security, its competitive edge, and a values-based foreign policy. She chairs the National Space Council, which orchestrates policy across civil, commercial, and national security domains ranging from space exploration and the space industrial base, to threats emanating from China’s burgeoning investment in satellite and anti-satellite capabilities that are pivotal to modern warfare as well as daily communication and commerce. Harris has also taken the lead in several initiatives on the safe and responsible development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), enlisting both the tech sector and philanthropies, which she announced at the AI Summit in London last winter.

Harris has visited seven Asian countries, met with dozens of Asian leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping and major U.S. allies Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and Thailand. She represented the United States at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia summits, reassuring and building ties with the nations most affected on a daily basis by China’s growing economic clout and geopolitical bid to control the South China Sea. She discussed a limited free-trade deal with the president of Indonesia and issued a joint statement with Japan and Philippine leaders to signal their trilateral cooperation in maritime security.

Harris made a weeklong visit to Africa last year, to follow up on the U.S.-Africa summit and U.S. initiatives to bring private sector investment, financing, and digital transformation in a not-so-subtle competition with China, which has become Africa’s largest trading partner and investor. As America’s first black vice-president, Harris received a warm reception not seen since Obama’s visits during his presidency.

Among Harris’s meetings with 150 heads of state and government, her meetings this year with embattled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have been among her most significant in terms of substance and timing. In a joint news conference following her address at the Munich Security Conference in February, she publicly assured Zelensky and Europe of the administration’s commitment, amid a bruising battle with Republicans in Congress, to provide urgently needed aid to stop Russian advances in its war of attrition in Ukraine. She met with Zelensky again in June at the Global Peace Summit convened in Switzerland to declare U.S. support for a just and lasting peace and deliver humanitarian and reconstruction aid as Russia opened a new front outside of Kharkiv.

Harris will be running on the Biden-Harris record, and thus in line for criticism of its failures as well as achievements which include building and holding together a fifty-country coalition to support Ukraine, gaining increased European contributions to NATO, an array of bipartisan legislative victories to strengthen American competitiveness, recover from the pandemic, confront climate change, and engineer a soft landing for the economy following a painful fight against inflation. Harris as presidential candidate will also step out from that record to identify her priorities and next steps for building on the administration achievements and areas where she will strike out in new directions. One adaptation will likely be a stronger policy of supporting Palestinian needs and rights while maintaining support for Israel’s defense, albeit with stricter conditions to prevent civilian harm.

In sum, Harris’s foreign policy experience has been wider and deeper than many past and present candidates, and now that she has stepped into the race, voters will be listening closely for her to speak about her priorities and proposals for the future. While she will not likely break with central features of the Biden campaign, she is likely to make concerted overtures to show that she is in touch with the concerns of the younger electorate and fully cognizant of the systemic risks that climate, technology, and geopolitical tensions pose for all. If she meets that test, she may succeed in surmounting longstanding biases and doubts about a woman president. The many Americans who have said they would vote for a qualified woman will have a chance to do that—dispelling their own lingering doubts that they might see such an outcome in their lifetimes.

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18. Anti-colonial call to cancel US RIMPAC naval exercises

Excerpts:

Framing RIMPAC as an “exercise” – in other words, a simulation – the campaign argues, obscures its harmful material effects on communities and ecosystems in Hawaii and beyond.

Cancel RIMPAC coalition members told us, they seek to build on the “legacy of past generations of Kanaka Maoli and Indigenous Pacific-led struggles for demilitarization and decolonization” and “thousands of years of Indigenous stewardship and cultural tradition throughout Pasifika.”

In this “multi-generational, multi-racial” movement, they add, international solidarity is crucial. In this context, questions need to be asked about the UK’s ongoing participation in these naval exercises.

Anti-colonial call to cancel US RIMPAC naval exercises - Asia Times

US-led naval exercises in Hawaii and Pacific islands – the world’s largest – reflect over a century of colonial exploitation of the region

asiatimes.com · by Kate Lewis Hood · July 26, 2024

Since the last week in June, navies and naval assets from 29 countries have been taking part in the world’s largest naval exercises.

The US-led RIMPAC 2024 (Exercise Rim of the Pacific), the 29th such exercise to be held since 1971, claims to promote “a free and open Indo-Pacific.” But many of the Indigenous peoples of this region, which covers more than 50% of the Earth’s surface, don’t see it that way at all.

In June, Protecting Oceania, a group of Indigenous Pacific, environmental, and social justice organizations, released a statement, saying:

We stand together, in order to fulfil our sacred duty to be good ancestors, and firmly oppose the militarization of our islands and oceans… These exercises threaten our sovereignties and our communities, human and other-than-human alike, here in Hawaii, across Moananuiākea, and throughout the world.

Meanwhile, the Hawaii-based and international Cancel RIMPAC campaign argues that the exercise does not provide the security it claims. Rather, it contributes to colonialism as well as environmental damage and gendered violence in the region.

The Royal Navy has been part of the exercises since their inception more than 50 years ago. Yet there is very little discussion of RIMPAC in the UK. This is despite the extensive and long British colonial history in the Pacific and a renewed and increasing Indo-Pacific emphasis in UK foreign policy.

A sea of islands

In 1994, Tongan-Fijian writer Epeli Hau‘ofa described Oceania as “a sea of islands” connected by many generations of oceanic navigation, inter-island relationships and careful observation of environmental cycles. This challenged colonial perspectives of the Pacific as isolated “islands in a far sea” able to be exploited by foreign powers.

Although the US is now the dominant territorial and military presence in the Pacific, Britain, France and Germany have longer colonial histories in this ocean.

Following Captain James Cook’s voyages in the late 18th century, the expansion of British imperialism into the Pacific extracted vast amounts of wealth from Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu.

Maps of Oceania often show the persistence of Euro-western territorialism in the region, rather than Indigenous understandings of the ocean. Peter Hermes Furian/Alamy Stock Photo via The Conversation

British imperialism also dispossessed Indigenous peoples and attempted to impose European culture. In Aotearoa New Zealand, the imposition of British colonial education fragmented Māori language and knowledge systems, something Māori movements have since worked hard to revitalize.

In Banaba (an island in Kiribati) phosphate mining destroyed island ecosystems and displaced Indigenous Banabans.

Military testing ground

The US tested nuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands between 1946 and 1958. The British military tested hydrogen bombs in Australia and on Malden Island and Kiritimati. These tests caused serious health issues among islanders, including birth defects and cancers, and long-term ecological harm.

Indigenous Pacific-led movements have long resisted military and nuclear imperialism in Moananuiākea (the vast ocean). After years of pressure from the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific movement, the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga established a South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. This process raised important conversations about Indigenous self-determination in the Pacific.

Recently, the Indo-Pacific has become a focus yet again for Western powers. In the UK, the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh sets out the objective of establishing “a permanent European maritime presence in the Indo-Pacific” in response to the “epoch-defining challenge” of China.

This followed the launch of AUKUS by the UK, the US and Australia in 2021. This partnership aimed to “deepen diplomatic, security, and defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.” This will involve arming Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, to be built by British companies BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce.

It is yet to be seen how the new Labour government will approach the Pacific. But in the UK and US’s shared rhetoric of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, the concerns of Indigenous Pacific islanders are often downplayed. “Global security” and trade take precedence, it seems.

Little has changed since 1893, when a group of American businessmen backed by the US military overthrew the independent Hawaiian Kingdom. In 1941, the US military began to use the Hawaiian island of Kaho‘olawe as a bombing range after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, despite the fact that the island is of enormous cultural, spiritual and ecological significance to Native Hawaiians (Kānaka Maoli).

Pushing against RIMPAC

By the mid-1970s, the growing Hawaiian sovereignty movement began to put pressure on the US to stop using Kaho‘olawe for military training exercises – including RIMPAC.

The pressure finally bore fruit when, before Rimpac 1982, Australia and New Zealand agreed not to shell Kaho‘olawe. Japan followed suit in 1984.

In 1986, UK MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Tam Dalyell brought the issue of the Royal Navy shelling Kaho‘olawe to parliament. In 1990 all bombing of Kaho‘olawe finally stopped. But it will be hard to repair the environmental damage done by the bombing.

This year, a coalition of Hawaii-based and international groups are resisting RIMPAC again.

Community organizers Kawena‘ulaokalā Kapahua and Joy Lehuanani Enomoto argue that RIMPAC contributes to ongoing Indigenous dispossession through the military occupation of the islands and ecological harm to lands and waters.

It’s also associated with increased sex trafficking and gendered violence that predominantly affect Kānaka Maoli women, girls, and gender-nonconforming people.

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This year, groups in Hawaii, the US, Aotearoa New Zealand, and Malaysia have condemned their nations’ participation in RIMPAC alongside Israel at a time of intense violence against Palestinians in Gaza.

Cancel Rimpac press conference on June 17. The gathering was hosted by Jewish Voice for Peace Hawai‘i outside the US Pacific Fleet Headquarters in O‘ahu, Hawaii. Photo: Sara Saastamoinen, CC BY-SA

Framing RIMPAC as an “exercise” – in other words, a simulation – the campaign argues, obscures its harmful material effects on communities and ecosystems in Hawaii and beyond.

Cancel RIMPAC coalition members told us, they seek to build on the “legacy of past generations of Kanaka Maoli and Indigenous Pacific-led struggles for demilitarization and decolonization” and “thousands of years of Indigenous stewardship and cultural tradition throughout Pasifika.”

In this “multi-generational, multi-racial” movement, they add, international solidarity is crucial. In this context, questions need to be asked about the UK’s ongoing participation in these naval exercises.

Kate Lewis Hood is postdoctoral fellow in geography, Royal Holloway University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

asiatimes.com · by Kate Lewis Hood · July 26, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

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Anti-colonial call to cancel US RIMPAC naval exercises - Asia Times

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