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South Korea, Japan leaders due to meet on sidelines of NATO summit -Seoul
Quotes of the Day:
“I believe that every right implies a responsibility; every opportunity an obligation; every possession a duty.“
- John D. Rockefeller
“True ignorance is not the absence of knowledge, but the refusal to acquire it.”
- Karl Popper
“If you were going down the road, and don't like what's in front of you, and look behind you, and don't like what you see, get off the road. Create a new path!”
- Maya Angelou
1. North Korean Human Rights and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance
2. [ANALYSIS] What is Seoul aiming for by prioritizing human rights in North Korea?
3. Dossier highlights moments leading to 1st inter-Korean agreement signed after Koreas' division
4. N. Korea discusses economic plans in follow-up measures after key party meeting
5. Yoon to attend NATO summit in Lithuania, visit Poland
6. The complicated truth about North Korea sanctions
7. Samsung’s A.I. Moment Is Here, but Is It Ready?
8. Korean firefighting team dispatched to Canada begins operations in Quebec
9. Korea marks 3rd year since Korean War hero Gen. Paik's death
10. Ambassador for North's human rights likely to be reappointed
11. S. Korea to introduce anti-drone defense system at key military, govt. facilities
12. S. Korea identifies remains of another Korean War soldier
13. [Lee Kyong-hee] From brittle armistice to permanent peace
14. Can the UN Secretary-General Help the 2,000 North Koreans Detained in China?
15. Column: Increasing tensions between North and South Korea reflect profound realities
16. S. Korean, U.S. Army troops to stage combined drills in California desert next month
17. The revolving door: Why people end up quitting the North Korea field
18. South Korea, Japan leaders due to meet on sidelines of NATO summit -Seoul
1. North Korean Human Rights and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance
From my good friend and one of the most important international leaders on north Korean human rights.
Just a little background to reinforce Greg's credibility. He lived under the Romanian dictatorship and survived the Romanian revolution. Had there not been a successful revolution he would have gone to Pyongyang to study. Instead he went to Seoul to study (and became a fluent Korean speaker) and then on to the US (to Fletcher) and then to DC becoming an American citizen and patriot by choice while working on Korean issues and ultimately taking over the leadership of the US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. When he speaks on the evils of communism and in particular north Korea and the importance of human rights we should all pay attention.
Human rights is not only a moral imperative, it is a national security issue because Ki m Jong Un must deny the human rights of the Korean people living in the north in order to remain in power.
This is why we need a three fold strategy of a human rights up front approach, a sophisticated, comprehensive information campaign, and the pursuit of e free and unified Korea.
North Korean Human Rights and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance
hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
By Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director
July 5, 2023
The following text is adapted from the keynote address delivered by Greg Scarlatoiu, HRNK Executive Director, at the inaugural conference of the America Korea United Society (AKUS) at the Korean Community Center in Alexandria, VA on June 22, 2023.
Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,
Hearty congratulations to AKUS on your vision and mission. Your credo, “respect, integrity, and transparency,” summarizes the core values we need to share to keep developing the American constitutional republic and the liberal democracy of the Republic of Korea. These values define the U.S.-ROK alliance, a brotherhood and sisterhood forged in blood on the brutal and unforgiving battlefields of the Korean War. They are also the key to unifying the Korean Peninsula under a free, democratic, capitalist Republic of Korea.
This year marks the 70th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice of July 27, 1953. The Korean Peninsula is still divided, and there is little to celebrate. It is also the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-ROK alliance, which was built on the Mutual Defense Treaty of October 1, 1953. Over those seven decades, this alliance has expanded beyond security issues to cover economic cooperation, education, and culture. This is truly an unbreakable alliance, friendship, and partnership. Your commitment to preserving and enhancing the alliance will only make our two nations and our bond even stronger.
It is still the ultimate strategic objective of the Kim regime to undermine, subvert, and eventually annex South Korea. After all, the Kim family regime is not even a political cartel. It is an absolute political monopoly. The Kim family rules North Korea through the Korean Workers’ Party, led by its Organization and Guidance Department and its Central Committee.
The only challenge to the post-industrial, kleptocratic, dynastic regime of North Korea is South Korea. South Korea is free, democratic, and prosperous. It is an economic powerhouse—the world’s tenth largest economy. South Korea’s success presents an existential threat to the Kim regime. In particular, it fears that the people of North Korea will come to view the South Korean model—sustained by the extraordinary talent, determination, and hard work of the Korean people and underpinned by strong ties to the United States—as a superior alternative to the Kim regime.
We all want peace. We all want to lead by example. We all want peace through economic, political, social, cultural, and military strength. We all want peace, reconciliation, and the eventual reunification of all Koreans under the Republic of Korea. The path toward the dream of Korean reunification does not lie in false promises or peace declarations that ignore the human rights of North Koreans and the threat the Kim regime poses to international peace and security. There cannot be peace without justice. In striving for Korean reunification, we must address the grave military and security threats that North Korea poses, as well as its egregious human rights violations.
To bring change to the Korean Peninsula, we must find out and tell the truth about the Kim regime’s crimes against humanity. It is essential to create a coalition of like-minded governments, civil society organizations, and international institutions to put an end to a human rights catastrophe that simply cannot be tolerated in the 21st century.
However, change must ultimately come from the people of North Korea. We must empower them through information from the outside world by telling them three stories: first, the story of their own human rights, which they are unaware of; second, the corruption of their leadership, especially the corruption of the inner core of the Kim family; and third, the story of the outside world, especially the story of free, democratic, prosperous South Korea.
The mission statement and activities of AKUS align perfectly with this vision. I wish you all God’s speed, and look forward to working together to bring freedom, human rights, democracy, and economic opportunity to the people of North Korea.
Categories: Human Rights, North Korea, South Korea, unification, United States
hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
2. [ANALYSIS] What is Seoul aiming for by prioritizing human rights in North Korea?
The ROK is right to take a human rights upfront approach. And a human rights upfront approach is a key element as part of an information campaign and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. But let me focus on the unification comments in the article.
I think the author mischaracterizes how some Korea watchers think about unification. There are four paths to unification. The ideal path is peaceful. Paradoxically this is the one that should be the main effort of planning but is least likely to occur because Kim Jong Un is unlikely to agree to unification on terms that result in a free and democratic Korea nor is he likely to go quietly into the night. However, peaceful unification planning is the hardest because it is the most comprehensive and as it requires the complete integration of the people on both sides of the DMZ (and political, economic, and. security integration). The second and fastest way to unification is war but we do not want to expend the blood and treasure that war will demand. The third way is through regime collapse and the resultant conflict and humanitarian disaster and we should always note that the conditions that lead to regime collapse could also cause Kim to execute his campaign plan to unify the country under his domination to ensure his survival. Regime collapse will not be a benign event. Through path and the outlier is internal regime change that results in new leadership that recognizes that peaceful reunification is the only way new leadership and the Korean people in the north can survive. This requires a huge information campaign commitment to create the conditions and understanding of the path to survival is through unification. Regardless of the path (peaceful, war, collapse, or internal change) all the planning for peaceful unification will be employed because the plan for peaceful unification will be the most comprehensive.
So the author's and some pundits say unification is impossible without internal change to the regie in the north. I do not think that is right. I think most recognize that internal change to the regime is the ideal case and the best way to achieve unification and that we should nurture that change through the correct policies and a supporting information campaign. But unification can occur in other ways and we must also prepare for those paths as well. But we should encourage that "revolutionary change" in the north. It is only revolutionary change that will undo the seven decade revolution that the Kim family regime has been pursuing. rRmember that its constitution demands the completion of the revolution to dominate the peninsula and rid it of foreign forces and influence.
[ANALYSIS] What is Seoul aiming for by prioritizing human rights in North Korea?
The Korea Times · July 6, 2023
People bow to portraits of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, in this November 2021 photo. Yonhap
Peaceful unity impossible without 'revolutionary change' in Pyongyang first: US experts
By Jung Min-ho
After his decision to replace three key figures in charge of handling inter-Korean relations, President Yoon Suk Yeol called on the unification ministry to fundamentally change the way it operates, saying its unification efforts should be based on the Constitution.
Article 4 of the Constitution says that Korea should "formulate and carry out a policy of peaceful unification based on the principles of freedom and democracy."
What does that mean for the ministry's future role and the prospects of unification?
According to U.S. analysts, it would mean achieving freedom and democracy in North Korea first before pursuing peaceful unification. Without a "revolutionary change" in Pyongyang, unification is impractical to attain or maintain, they said. In other words, if the North regime remains as it has always been ― trampling on the freedom of its citizens as a means of holding onto power ― the government under Yoon is unlikely to prioritize efforts to hasten unification, which would not be sustainable anyway.
Allen Pinkston, an analyst on North Korea and a professor of international relations at Troy University in the U.S. state of Alabama, said he does not see "any progress toward unification" as long as North Korea is under its Workers' Party, which is intolerant of any vision of a unified Korea that does not include its system of governance.
"If the Kim regime and the DPRK (North Korea) party-state were to liberalize, democratize, and protect human rights, this would represent a revolutionary change in thinking and identity," Pinkston said.
"Of course, the other possibility is the South coming under the control of the DPRK. I don't think that is likely at all, so the more likely scenario is eventual revolutionary change in the North, and subsequent unification under the democratic ideals as envisioned by the Yoon administration."
His assessment seems to be in line with Kim Yung-ho, nominee for new unification minister. In the past media columns and interviews, the former human rights ambassador expressed his skepticism of unification under two different political systems, saying it would almost certainly lead to civil war as the ongoing conflict in Yemen and many other such failures have shown.
Kim Yung-ho, nominee for new minister of unification, speaks to reporters while entering the Office of the Inter-Korean Dialogue in Seoul, June 30. Yonhap
Kim consistently insisted that South Korea should prioritize human rights in its policy toward the North to pressure the regime to change its abhorrent behavior. In comments suggesting regime change, he also called for the end of Kim Jong-un's rule and the "destruction" of North Korea's political system.
Some experts such as Robert Joseph, former U.S. special envoy for nuclear nonproliferation, believe Washington and Seoul should place human rights at the center of their policies on the North, saying that joint international pressure could lead to regime change from within.
It is unclear whether such an upfront, aggressive human rights approach is among the ideas Kim is considering as new minister. What is rather obvious is that the ministry will likely toughen its hardline stance, as he told reporters last week that freedom, human rights and rule of law are among the uncompromising values.
Sean King, senior vice president at Park Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm, said it is wrong to believe that the promotion of human rights conflicts with the goal of unification in the long run.
"Caring and knowing about North Koreans' suffering and plight will only make any eventual Korean reunification more durable and resilient," King said. "Assuming Korea reunited one day under the Seoul system, it should mean something to Koreans in the North that South Koreans cared about their plight while they were separated."
The Korea Times · July 6, 2023
3. Dossier highlights moments leading to 1st inter-Korean agreement signed after Koreas' division
Some interesting history. What can we learn from this? (Tara O?)
(LEAD) Dossier highlights moments leading to 1st inter-Korean agreement signed after Koreas' division | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · July 6, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 3-5, 9-13; ADDS photo)
By Lee Minji
SEOUL, July 6 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry on Thursday unveiled newly declassified documents offering a glimpse into what led to the July 4 joint communique in 1972, the first agreement signed between South and North Korea since the division of the peninsula.
The dossier includes transcripts of confidential inter-Korean contacts in the months leading up to the historic agreement, such as a 1972 meeting in Pyongyang between Seoul's then spy chief Lee Hu-rak and the North's Kim Yong-ju, the younger brother of then North Korean leader Kim Il-sung.
Pak Song-chol, then deputy premier of the North, also made a secret visit to Seoul in 1972 to meet with then South Korean President Park Chung-hee.
A series of inter-Korean contacts and the reciprocal trips by such high-ranking officials helped the two Koreas reach an agreement on unification that year, known as the July 4 joint communique, despite lingering tensions between both sides.
South and North Korea agreed on the three principles of achieving unification without the intervention of external forces, seeking a peaceful process that eliminates the use of force, and promoting national unity.
In this file photo dated Nov. 3, 1972, Lee Hu-rak (L), then head of South Korea's state intelligence agency, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Il-sung in Pyongyang. (Yonhap)
The dossier consists of 1,678 pages of documents from November 1971 to February 1979 declassified under the unification ministry's regulation on disclosing documents dating back more than 30 years on past inter-Korean talks.
While details of the confidential meetings in the 1970s had been partially disclosed in memoirs authored by key officials, the ministry explained that it marks the first time the government has made public the transcripts as an official record.
Some 230 pages of the dossier, however, have been blacked out for privacy and security reasons, according to the ministry.
Details of a historic meeting between Lee and North Korean leader Kim were not included following a review by a deliberative committee. Those of Pak's meeting with South Korean President Park were also not disclosed.
Three years later, the committee will review whether to open the public documents on their confidential dialogue.
But the latest disclosed dossier offered a glimpse into several remarks by the North's founder Kim as Seoul's spy chief Lee briefly mentioned them during other inter-Korean talks.
At a meeting in May 1972 with Lee, Kim apologized for an infiltration to Seoul by 31 North Korean commandos in January 1968 in an attempt to assassinate Park, and stressed there would be no such fratricidal war as the 1950-53 Korean War.
The dossier also showed the two Koreas secretly launched a hotline in April 1972 on the occasion of Lee's trip to Pyongyang even before they announced its establishment three months later.
Since first disclosing the declassified documents in May last year, the unification ministry has revealed the documents on three occasions, including the latest one.
A ministry official told reporters that the ministry plans to disclose additional declassified documents twice next year as part of efforts to enhance transparency in inter-Korean policy and provide information to the public.
The 30-year-old documents are available at the Office of the Inter-Korean Dialogue and the ministry's major research center.
In this file photo dated Nov. 4, 1972, provided by the unification ministry, Lee Hu-rak (L, sitting), then head of South Korea's state intelligence agency, and Kim Yong-ju (R, sitting), then chief of organization affairs at the North's ruling Workers' Party of Korea, sign an agreement on forming and operating an inter-Korean committee. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
This photo, provided by South Korea's unification ministry on July 6, 2023, shows a collection of declassified documents on inter-Korean talks in the 1970s. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · July 6, 2023
4. N. Korea discusses economic plans in follow-up measures after key party meeting
north Korea is going to have difficulty surviving without some level of economic reform. Unfortunately, if the Kim family regime allows the necessary refr=orms it will not likely survive.
N. Korea discusses economic plans in follow-up measures after key party meeting | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · July 6, 2023
SEOUL, July 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea held a Cabinet meeting earlier this week to review economic plans in the first half of the year and discuss follow-up measures for policy goals put forth in a recent key party meeting, state media said Thursday.
Last month, Pyongyang held a plenary meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, attended by leader Kim Jong-un, to discuss key agenda items, including economic policy.
Premier Kim Tok-hun presided over the videoconference meeting Wednesday, also attended by Vice Premier Pak Jong-gun, Cabinet officials, and officials from major factories and companies, according to the state-run radio network Korean Central Broadcasting Station.
Summarizing the first half, Pak noted how a nationwide irrigation project has bolstered the foundation for agriculture production and the harvest of certain types of grain took place.
Pak also called for achieving "grand goals of national revival," and participants vowed to thoroughly carry out the decisions made by the ruling party.
North Korea has been seeking to boost its economy in the wake of severe food shortages and economic hardships aggravated by biting global sanctions and the country's COVID-19 border closure.
This June 19, 2023, photo, taken from North Korea's Korean Central TV footage, shows leader Kim Jong-un attending a key party meeting. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · July 6, 2023
5. Yoon to attend NATO summit in Lithuania, visit Poland
(LEAD) Yoon to attend NATO summit in Lithuania, visit Poland | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · July 6, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with details; ADDS photos)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, July 6 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol will attend a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Lithuania next week and then pay an official visit to Poland, his office said Thursday.
Yoon will visit Vilnius from Monday to Wednesday to meet with NATO leaders over the war in Ukraine, cooperation between the military alliance and the Indo-Pacific region, and emerging security threats, according to Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo.
President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a government meeting at the former presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae, in Seoul on July 4, 2023, to discuss economic policy directions for the second half of the year. (Yonhap)
From Vilnius, Yoon will travel to Poland for a three-day official visit that will include a summit with President Andrzej Duda on ways to further develop the bilateral strategic partnership established between the sides in 2013.
Kim said the trip is expected to achieve three results: strengthening international security cooperation, expanding supply chain cooperation and promoting South Korea's bid to host the 2030 World Expo in the southeastern city of Busan.
"We will share ways South Korea plans to contribute to peace in Ukraine, which is one of the most important issues in the international community, and realize in detail our global responsible diplomacy," he said during a press briefing.
Yoon's attendance at the NATO summit will help strengthen cooperation with the alliance against North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats and send a united message that North Korea's illegal acts will not be tolerated, he said.
Moreover, South Korea and NATO will adopt documents for bilateral cooperation across 11 sectors, including nonproliferation, cybersecurity and emerging technologies.
"It will be an opportunity to expand the horizon of our diplomacy with Europe through direct exchanges with more leaders as we share the values of freedom, human rights and the rule of law and further deepen cooperation with NATO states and partners," Kim said.
Talks are under way to set up a meeting between Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the NATO summit, Kim said, amid heightened attention in South Korea to Japan's plan to release treated radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant.
When asked to respond to Japanese news reports that Kishida will explain Japan's position on the planned discharge, a presidential official said the agenda for summits are not discussed in advance.
"If a South Korea-Japan summit is realized, the issue of the Fukushima treated water could come up," the official said. "If the Japanese side mentions it, (Yoon) will say what's necessary in keeping with the principle that we will place top priority on our people's health."
Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo, gives a press briefing on President Yoon Suk Yeol's upcoming trip to Lithuania and Poland at the presidential office in Seoul on July 6, 2023. (Yonhap)
Yoon will hold a series of bilateral meetings in Vilnius, including with the NATO secretary-general and the leaders of the Netherlands, Norway and Lithuania.
He will also attend a dinner hosted by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda for leaders of NATO member states and partner nations.
This will be the second consecutive year Yoon attends a NATO summit. Last year, he became the first South Korean president to attend a NATO summit by participating in the one held in Madrid.
South Korea is not a member of the military alliance but has been invited as one of four Asia-Pacific partner nations, along with Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
The leaders of the four countries will hold a separate meeting, as they did last year on the sidelines of the Madrid summit, with Yoon as the moderator.
From Vilnius, Yoon will travel to Warsaw late Wednesday for a three-day official visit.
Though it is an official visit, it will be equivalent to a state visit in terms of protocol, as state visits do not exist in the Polish government system, Kim said.
Yoon will hold a summit with Polish President Andrzej Duda next Thursday at the presidential palace in Warsaw and discuss ways to further develop the bilateral strategic partnership established between the sides in 2013.
He will hold separate meetings with the prime minister, and speakers of the lower and upper houses of parliament and lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.
Talks will focus on expanding ties not only in trade and investment, but also in strategic sectors such as arms, nuclear power and infrastructure.
Yoon also plans to meet with officials from South Korean businesses operating in Poland, who are seeking to participate in reconstruction projects in post-war Ukraine, to discuss ways the government can support them, according to Choi Sang-mok, senior presidential secretary for economic affairs.
An 89-person business delegation will accompany Yoon on the trip, representing companies in rechargeable batteries, arms and nuclear energy, as well as construction companies interested in participating in reconstruction projects in Ukraine, Choi said during the same press briefing.
Also on Yoon's itinerary are a meeting with Korean residents in Poland, a discussion with South Korean and Polish youths at the University of Warsaw and a bilateral business forum he will jointly attend with Duda.
This will be Yoon's first bilateral visit to a European nation since taking office. He will also be the first South Korean president to pay an official visit to Warsaw since Lee Myung-bak in 2009.
On speculation Yoon could visit Ukraine during the trip and meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a presidential official told reporters there are no such plans.
First lady Kim Keon Hee will accompany Yoon.
Choi Sang-mok, senior presidential secretary for economic affairs, gives a press briefing on President Yoon Suk Yeol's upcoming trip to Lithuania and Poland at the presidential office in Seoul on July 6, 2023. (Yonhap)
hague@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · July 6, 2023
6. The complicated truth about North Korea sanctions
We must think beyond sanctions. information is far more dangerous to the regime than sanctions (which will not be fully enforced by UN member nations). We need to focus on what works and what we can do effectively. Information is one of those areas.
The complicated truth about North Korea sanctions
Full impact of punitive measures is hard to assess considering sanctions-evading actions are institutionalized in the economy
asiatimes.com · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · July 5, 2023
On the surface, sanctions seem to have had little impact on North Korea’s behavior. At the time of writing, the world is waiting for the launch of a new North Korean military spy satellite that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un announced on April 19, 2023.
North Korea is under one of the harshest multilateral sanctions regimes of any country in the world. But the country still circumvents sanctions regularly through complex smuggling operations at which it is by now very adept. This situation raises questions about whether sanctions on North Korea have failed.
It is true that sanctions have not reached the stated political goal of inducing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. The country has made impressive advances in missile technology and is evidently capable of acquiring the necessary technology despite sanctions.
The “spy satellite” launch would be one of around 30 missiles tested in 2023. Though North Korea has ways to evade sanctions, this does not mean sanctions have no impact.
Sanctions interplay with domestic governance and economic systems in ways that are complex and often hard to fully evaluate. The alternative to sanctions is not an open, liberal and free-trading North Korea, but likely a slightly more well-off version of its current state.
The issue of evasion illustrates why the impact of sanctions is so hard to evaluate. Sanctions-evading actions are not rare events but are institutionalized within North Korea’s economy.
Since the 1970s, North Korea has systematically smuggled alcohol, tobacco, drugs and other contraband through its diplomatic networks abroad. These activities continue today and with North Korean capabilities expanding into the cyber realm, sources of illicit income will likely continue to constitute an underestimated part of the regime’s hard-currency revenue flows.
But sanctions evasion and smuggling are very expensive activities. For Chinese, Taiwanese and Singaporean trading companies and entities to risk smuggling oil to North Korea, Pyongyang must pay a massive risk premium on its purchases. North Korea has to pay well above market prices to give sellers a reason to take the risk of arrest and prosecution for sanctions violations.
A North Korean coal port is pictured in 2017. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Ed Jones
The same is true for illicit North Korean exports. Sanctions do not stop coal exports entirely, but they slash the prices that North Korea can charge. Any buyer — almost always China — will only risk importing from North Korea if prices are cheap enough to outweigh the risks.
Even prior to the harsher sanctions levied in 2016 and 2017, China, through its position as a virtual monopoly buyer, consistently paid below-market prices for North Korean coal. This dynamic is likely even stronger today, as Chinese imports of coal and other sanctioned North Korean goods continue but go mostly unrecorded.
Despite North Korea’s evasion tactics, sanctions are indisputably hurting the North Korean economy. The country’s exports are estimated to be worth only a few hundred million dollars per year – much smaller than its trade losses.
The UN Panel of Experts estimated, for example, that North Korea earned around US$370 million from sanctions-violating coal exports in 2019. This is only a fraction of the $1.19 billion it earned from such exports in 2016, before the harsher sanctions.
The civilian impact of sanctions is unclear. On one hand, sanctions have likely dealt a harsh blow to labor-intensive industries like textiles, where a high proportion of workers are women, resulting in increased unemployment and lower wages.
The falling incomes of North Koreans working in sanctioned industries substantially dampen the wider economy. On the other hand, there is no evidence that sanctions have driven up the price of food or other essential goods.
Sanctions have undoubtedly worsened North Korea’s food shortage by hindering imports of fertilizer and spare parts for agricultural equipment. North Korea’s own border closure, though, likely also provided an obstacle to foreign trade.
But the impact of sanctions on North Korea’s food system is minimal compared with the regime’s refusal to undertake basic reforms in agriculture. The government bristles at dismantling collective farms or letting farmers sell their products on open markets.
Trade by evasion should logically become easier and cheaper. For sanctions to be effective against North Korea, China – which constitutes more than 90% of North Korea’s foreign trade – would have to implement them. As US-China tensions continue to grow, reasons for China to implement sanctions on North Korea are diminishing.
Reports of North Korean trade deals in weapons and labor with Russia in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are already circulating. Very little is confirmed about these transactions, but there is evidence to support increased economic exchange between the countries.
Earlier this year, satellite imagery from the border area indicated that Russia was increasing oil exports to North Korea while exporting unknown goods that could be arms destined for the Wagner Group.
But this does not change North Korea’s situation. Combined with its poor global reputation, sanctions will continue to make North Korea dependent on a very small number of trade partners – mainly China and Russia – who can charge highly unfavorable prices.
None of this is to say that the current thinking on North Korea sanctions is without serious flaws. The demand that denuclearisation should come before any relief on sanctions, for example, is unrealistic.
People in Seoul on January 1, 2020, watch a television news program showing file footage of a North Korean missile test. Photo: Asia Times files / AFP / Jung Yeon-je
But many also exaggerate the possible gains of abolishing sanctions. A common misperception is that, were sanctions to be lifted, North Korea would open its doors to foreign investors who would flock to the country for its strategic geographic location and cheap labor.
Removing sanctions would not change the basics of North Korea’s economic system. Despite a permissive attitude towards markets during former Supreme leader Kim Jong Il’s reign and the first few years of Kim Jong Un’s, harsh state control over the economy best serves the regime’s political and social goals by allowing it to control the distribution of resources.
Sanctions hurt, but removing them is no silver bullet for political or economic progress.
Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein is Associate Fellow at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Affairs and a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Safra Center for Ethics at Tel Aviv University.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.
Related
asiatimes.com · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · July 5, 2023
7. Samsung’s A.I. Moment Is Here, but Is It Ready?
A bold prediction here:
Mr. Kim said Samsung should invest more in research and not worry so much about market share. “Samsung is a bigger player than Apple in smartphones,” he said. “But how many people think Samsung makes a better smartphone than Apple?”
Samsung said in a statement that it had been successful in several aspects of advanced semiconductor technologies and that it could offer customers “comprehensive solutions” in the evolving landscape of A.I. and other technologies.
Samsung’s own executives have offered a more sober diagnosis.
In May, the president of Samsung’s semiconductor division, Kyung Kye-hyun, acknowledged in a talk to university students that the company “lagged behind” TSMC by up to two years. The remarks, which circulated widely in Korean media, were a rare admission for a company that has long prided itself on its tech leadership.
Mr. Kyung went on to vow that Samsung’s memory chips would become a “core” of A.I. supercomputers by 2028. “We can outperform TSMC within five years,” he said.
Samsung’s A.I. Moment Is Here, but Is It Ready?
The New York Times · by Chang Che · July 4, 2023
A semiconductor wafer at a Samsung plant in South Korea.Credit...Yonhap/EPA, via Shutterstock
Foreign investors betting on artificial intelligence are pouring money into the company’s shares. Analysts say it will have a hard time keeping up with rivals.
A semiconductor wafer at a Samsung plant in South Korea.Credit...Yonhap/EPA, via Shutterstock
Reporting from Seoul
The introduction of ChatGPT has lit a fire under the shares of companies that produce microchips, the brains of artificial intelligence. Bets on the potential of so-called generative A.I. have poured in. The most eye-catching example of the rally is Silicon Valley’s Nvidia, the top seller of chips used in artificial intelligence, whose shares are up nearly 200 percent this year.
Samsung Electronics, the South Korean giant, is hoping to get in on the action. Widely known for its consumer products, Samsung also has the world’s largest memory chip business and the second-busiest semiconductor foundries, which build custom microchips for other companies.
Foreign investors have bought $8 billion worth of Samsung shares this year on the South Korean stock market — already the largest amount of foreign purchases in Samsung for any year since 2000, according to data provided by CLSA, an investment firm in Hong Kong. The surge reversed a sell-off over the previous three years, when foreign investors sold more of the company’s stock than they bought.
At an event in California last week, Samsung detailed what it called its “vision in the A.I. era.” Samsung believes it can snatch market share from the leading chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, but recently the trend has gone the other way. According to Counterpoint Research, a market research firm, TSMC enjoys roughly 60 percent of total revenues in the global foundry business and Samsung only 13 percent — a gap that has widened since 2021 as some of Samsung’s customers, including Nvidia, have shifted their business to TSMC.
Samsung said it spent $7.4 billion in the first quarter of this year — when its profits fell a staggering 95 percent — on its chip business, a portion of which is expected to serve the A.I. industry. It is expanding production at its chip-manufacturing complex in Pyeongtaek, about 40 miles south of Seoul, as well as a chip factory in Texas. Over the next 20 years, Samsung said, it plans to work with the government on a $230 billion plan to build a chip-making “megacluster” in South Korea.
Construction at the Samsung P3 semiconductor plant in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, last year.Credit...SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg
The optimism is tied to Samsung’s memory chip business, which makes up roughly half the company’s operating profit in an average year, said Sanjeev Rana, a senior analyst at CLSA.
Compared with traditional servers — the hardware that underpins desktops and databases — the servers built for artificial intelligence can require four times the memory, called DRAM. Samsung commands roughly 45 percent of the global DRAM market. And it is the only major memory company to invest in more production despite an industrywide tumble in memory prices, Mr. Rana added.
The chip industry is known for its boom-and-bust cycles. After a spike in demand for memory chips during the pandemic, chip makers began one of their worst downturns in years last fall. Samsung’s memory chip rivals, including Micron Technology in the United States and South Korea’s SK Hynix, said they would cut back on investments in production this year.
Some analysts think Samsung’s spending in the down cycle will pay off in the long run when the memory sector recovers, in part because of artificial intelligence.
“If demand comes back, they will be very ready,” Mr. Rana said.
But skeptics question whether Samsung can achieve the kind of indispensable role in generative A.I. that it has had in smartphones and high-resolution televisions. It lost out last year when Nvidia chose SK Hynix as its supplier for a high-powered memory chip expected to become a fast-growing business line because of its prominence in future A.I. servers.
SK Hynix controls roughly 50 percent of that market for high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, compared with Samsung’s 40 percent, according to TrendForce, a market research firm. Shares of SK Hynix are up more than 50 percent this year, surpassing Samsung’s gain of 30 percent.
Samsung said it had already begun supplying “key customers” with a competing version of HBM. The next generation of its HBM is set to launch this year, it added.
Samsung’s lag in HBM technology could be a symptom of broader issues, said Nam Hyung Kim, an analyst at Arete Research, an equity research firm. In a report in February, Mr. Kim wrote that Micron had also leapfrogged Samsung’s technology in DRAM and another type of memory, NAND flash.
“The problem with Samsung is they always want to be big,” Mr. Kim said. “They’re spending so much money, but they’re not the leader in technology anymore.”
Mr. Kim said Samsung should invest more in research and not worry so much about market share. “Samsung is a bigger player than Apple in smartphones,” he said. “But how many people think Samsung makes a better smartphone than Apple?”
Samsung said in a statement that it had been successful in several aspects of advanced semiconductor technologies and that it could offer customers “comprehensive solutions” in the evolving landscape of A.I. and other technologies.
Samsung’s own executives have offered a more sober diagnosis.
In May, the president of Samsung’s semiconductor division, Kyung Kye-hyun, acknowledged in a talk to university students that the company “lagged behind” TSMC by up to two years. The remarks, which circulated widely in Korean media, were a rare admission for a company that has long prided itself on its tech leadership.
Mr. Kyung went on to vow that Samsung’s memory chips would become a “core” of A.I. supercomputers by 2028. “We can outperform TSMC within five years,” he said.
Jin Yu Young contributed reporting.
Chang Che is the Asia technology correspondent for The Times. He previously worked for The China Project and as a freelance writer covering Chinese technology and society. More about Chang Che
A version of this article appears in print on , Section B, Page 4 of the New York edition with the headline: Foreign Investors Pour Money Into Samsung’s A.I. Venture, But It Faces Stiff Competition
The New York Times · by Chang Che · July 4, 2023
8. Korean firefighting team dispatched to Canada begins operations in Quebec
Korean firefighting team dispatched to Canada begins operations in Quebec
The Korea Times · July 6, 2023
This photo shows members of the Korea Disaster Relief Team engaged in a firefighting mission in Lebel-sur-Quevillon in the Canadian province of Quebec, Thursday. Yonhap
A Korean emergency firefighting team dispatched to Canada to help the North American nation deal with raging wildfires has started carrying out on-site activities, according to Seoul's foreign ministry Thursday.
According to the ministry, the Korea Disaster Relief Team of 151 workers, including firefighters, emergency workers and medical personnel, started operations in Lebel-sur-Quevillon, Quebec province, on Wednesday (local time).
The team underwent training and preparations after arriving in the country Sunday. The personnel were divided up into two groups and engaged in firefighting activities in the north and southern parts of Lebel-sur-Quevillon.
The Korean team plans to support Canadian fire authorities for about a month.
Korea decided to dispatch the team last week after holding an interagency meeting on assisting Canada with the fallout of wildfires that have affected some 8.2 million hectares of land across the country.
Foreign Minister Park Jin expressed hopes that the dispatch of the team would serve as an opportunity for the two countries, which are celebrating the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties, to take a leap forward beyond their cooperation in wildfire suppression. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · July 6, 2023
9. Korea marks 3rd year since Korean War hero Gen. Paik's death
It was an honor to hear General Paik's many talks over the years. There was no one more supportive of the ROK/US alliance.
And all members of the ROK/US alliance should read his book from Pusan to Panmunjom to read a Korean's view of the Korean War and the alliance.
It is good to see him honored when he was so dishonored by the previous administration.
Thursday
July 6, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Korea marks 3rd year since Korean War hero Gen. Paik's death
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/07/06/national/defense/Paik-Sunyup-Korean-War-war-hero/20230706094524351.html
A statue of the late Korean War hero Gen. Paik Sun-yup is unveiled during a ceremony held at a war memorial in Chilgok County, North Gyeongsang, on Wednesday. [MINISTRY OF PATRIOTS AND VETERANS AFFAIRS]
Senior government, military officials and other citizens attended ceremonies unveiling a statue of Korean War hero Gen. Paik Sun-yup and marking Wednesday's third anniversary of his death.
The ceremonies took place at a war memorial in Chilgok County, North Gyeongsang, the site of a major battle during the 1950-53 conflict. Participants included Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, Veterans Affairs Minister Park Min-shik and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Park Jeong-hwan.
The late general, who died on July 10, 2020, at the age of 99, was credited with leading key battles during the war and served as the fourth chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after the conflict.
"I believe many people will be able to honor the sacrifice and devotion of Gen. Paik Sun-yup, a star of patriotism who saved Korea," Park was quoted as saying during the ceremony.
A public committee oversaw the statue's construction, funded by private donations and the Veterans Ministry.
After unveiling the statue, the Army hosted a remembrance ceremony to mark Paik's death anniversary. It was attended by over 1,000 people, including U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Paul LaCamera, and the late general's daughter Paik Nam-hui.
"The freedom, peace and prosperity that we are able to enjoy today are possible due to the noble sacrifice and devotion of patriots like the late Gen. Paik Sun-yup," Lee said in a speech.
"(We) will further develop the Korea-U.S. alliance and carry on the spirit of patriotism to firmly defend the free Republic of Korea loved by the general," he said.
Meanwhile, the Veterans Ministry is considering removing a state burial record on Paik that identifies him as a pro-Japanese figure, Park told Yonhap News Agency.
Paik's family members are known to have requested the ministry several months ago to remove him from the record.
In 2009, a presidential committee put him on the list of pro-Japanese figures due to his service in the Manchukuo Imperial Army, established by Imperial Japan, from 1941 to 1945.
Yonhap
10. Ambassador for North's human rights likely to be reappointed
I did not know it was only a one year appointment.
Thursday
July 6, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Ambassador for North's human rights likely to be reappointed
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/07/06/national/northKorea/korea-north-korea-human-rights/20230706185759469.html
Lee Shin-hwa, South Korea’s ambassador for international cooperation on North Korean human rights, far right, attends a forum about North Korean human rights issues in Oslo, Norway, on June 12. [YONHAP]
Lee Shin-hwa, South Korea’s ambassador for international cooperation on North Korean human rights, will likely be reinstated for another year as the Yoon Suk Yeol administration looks to strengthen its stance on the issue.
Lee was appointed by the Yoon administration a year ago when she was a professor of political science at Korea University.
The post, which is a one-year tenure that addresses and raises awareness of human rights issues in North Korea, was created when the North Korean Human Rights Act came into effect in 2016.
Following the inaugural ambassador Lee Jung-hoon, professor of international studies at Yonsei University, who was appointed from 2016 to 2017, the post was left vacant for years during the former Moon Jae-in administration as it looked to engage with the North politically.
Lee’s year of engagement with the international community to raise awareness of human rights violations by the North Korean regime has received a generally positive assessment within the Yoon administration, which is considering extending her tenure for another year, according to government sources the JoongAng Ilbo spoke with recently.
Prior to her ambassadorship, Lee wrote extensively on North Korea and international cooperation and served as a special advisor to former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan’s Rwandan Independent Inquiry and advisor to the chair of the East Asian Vision Group. She was also an Advisory Group member of the Peacebuilding Fund.
Upon her inauguration last year, Lee told the press she will focus her attention on “shedding light” on North Korea's human rights situation, stressing that it is the “least a democratic country” can do.
She had also spoken out against the former Moon administration’s decision to repatriate North Korean fishermen who defected to the South in November 2019, calling it a clear violation of both international and Korean law.
The Yoon administration recently nominated Kim Yung-ho, a hardliner on North Korea, as the new minister of unification. Upon his nomination Kim told the press that the role of the ministry will change, to focus more on improving freedom, human rights and the rule of law in North Korea.
Kim previously served as a presidential secretary of unification affairs and later as the Foreign Ministry's human rights ambassador under the Lee Myung-bak administration.
Lee’s counterpart in the United States, Julie Turner, in the meanwhile has been nominated since January to serve as special envoy on North Korean human rights issues by the Joe Biden administration but is yet to be appointed.
Turner currently serves as the director of East Asia and the Pacific at the U.S. State Department.
BY PARK HYUN-JU, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
11. S. Korea to introduce anti-drone defense system at key military, govt. facilities
S. Korea to introduce anti-drone defense system at key military, govt. facilities
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · July 6, 2023
By Yonhap
Published : Jul 6, 2023 - 10:12 Updated : Jul 6, 2023 - 11:36
(Herald DB)
S. Korea plans to introduce an integrated defense system to counter hostile unmanned aircraft at key military and government facilities for the first time, officials said Thursday.
The Defense Acquisition Program Administration recently put up a notice for the 48.5 billion-won ($37.2 million) project on its procurement website as Seoul has sought to bolster anti-drone capabilities after N. Korea's drone incursions late last year.
Under the project, DAPA seeks to purchase the counter-drone system to be operated by the Army, the Navy and the Air Force from local companies. It will accept bids through Aug. 8.
The system is expected to be able to detect small-sized drones and neutralize them by jamming their signals.
"In order to prepare against various N. Korean unmanned assets and drones, DAPA is enhancing substantive response capabilities," DAPA spokesperson Col. Choi Kyung-ho told a regular press briefing. "We will make efforts so that the project for the integrated anti-drone system for key areas can be carried out in a timely way."
Last December, five N. Korean drones intruded across the inter-Korean border, with one of them having penetrated a no-fly zone close to Seoul's presidential office.
S. Korea has since made efforts to beef up anti-drone measures, with the military planning to launch a drone operations command tasked with various missions utilizing the unmanned assets, including surveillance, reconnaissance and strike operations, later this year.
The military is currently considering various locations for the envisioned unit, although it is pushing for its establishment in the northern city of Pocheon, Col. Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in the briefing. (Yonhap)
12. S. Korea identifies remains of another Korean War soldier
Shared values. Just like the US, the ROK is committed to accounting for all MIA.
S. Korea identifies remains of another Korean War soldier
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · July 6, 2023
By Yonhap
Published : Jul 6, 2023 - 11:31 Updated : Jul 6, 2023 - 11:31
A soldier engages in a mission to excavate the remains of a S. Korean solider killed during the 1950-53 Korean War in May 2018 (Ministry of National Defense)
S. Korea's military has identified the remains of another soldier killed during the 1950-53 Korean War, some five years after their discovery at a former battle site, the defense ministry said Thursday.
The ministry's Agency for KIA Recovery and Identification and the Army's 21st Infantry Division recovered the remains of No Gwan-su, who held a rank equivalent to the current sergeant, in Yanggu, 113 kilometers northeast of Seoul, in 2018. KIA stands for killed in action.
The agency later identified the remains as his through a DNA analysis using a sample from his son.
Having voluntarily joined the military in May 1951, No died in a major battle around Yanggu in October that year. He was 22.
A ceremony marking his return to his family is set to take place in a home of his bereaved family in Seoul later in the day.
S. Korea has so far identified the remains of 213 service members killed in the conflict since it launched the excavation project in 2000. (Yonhap)
13. [Lee Kyong-hee] From brittle armistice to permanent peace
Yes, we all should want an end to the Korean War. I certainly do. But we cannot afford a "false end." A piece of paper will not guarantee the security of the ROK. As long as the nature, objectives, and stragey of the Kim family regime does not change, an end of war declaration will do noting to ensure the security of the Korean people in the South. We have to deal with north Korea as it really is and not as we wish it would be.
I have never heard criticism of the Biden administration described this way:
What should be done? Doing nothing is not effective, as experience shows. The administration of President Joe Biden, dubbed by some as “Strategic Negligence Season II” when it comes to North Korea policy, is advised to move ahead to start dialogue on smaller issues rather than Trump's “grand bargain" or “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” in a single stroke. In this way, Washington might be able to convince Pyongyang to engage. From there, trust may accumulate.
[Lee Kyong-hee] From brittle armistice to permanent peace
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · July 5, 2023
Seven decades after an armistice halted massive death and destruction throughout the Korean Peninsula, the South and North remain technically at war. With leaders of both sides ramping up belligerent rhetoric, a formal peace agreement is as elusive as it was in 1953. Talking about peace right now seems naive, or for some even like leftist pro-North propaganda.
Unification looks even farther off. The older generation still misses family members and friends who ended up on the opposite side in the chaos of war. But the young generation has no emotional connection. Unification would be welcomed, of course, but there are more realistic possibilities to aim at.
This year also marks the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US Mutual Defense Treaty, which is hailed as the linchpin of the alliance between Seoul and Washington. The two sides celebrated the success of the alliance during President Yoon Suk Yeol’s state visit to Washington in April. But despite the South’s amazing economic development combined with its democratic progress, the success seems incomplete, given the current security situation on the peninsula and relations between Washington and Pyongyang.
The main roadblock to enduring peace is undoubtedly the North’s continuous advances in nuclear armament. Pyongyang’s nuclear program dates to the 1950s. Its controversial Yongbyon facility was built with Soviet assistance in the 1960s, under an agreement that it would be used for peaceful purposes. But when the Cold War ended, Pyongyang fast-tracked nuclear arms development.
The motive is widely viewed as a means of securing the survival of the North’s communist regime and leveraging dealings with the United States. The regime has survived through successive descendants of Kim Il-Sung, who triggered the Korean War, but the price has been hefty: international isolation and a general population constantly struggling for food and other necessities.
The past three decades have witnessed policy failures on the part of Seoul and Washington in dealing with the North’s nuclear ambitions. Soft and hard-line measures to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear arsenal have fallen apart with the North alternating between negotiation and isolation.
The present stalemate began in 2019, with the rupture of the second summit between then US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The North has since kept all dialogue channels closed and heightened its condemnation of the South for its failed role in brokering a deal with Washington. The inauguration of conservative President Yoon in May 2022 signaled the escalation of Pyongyang’s provocations -- both in words and action.
Last year alone, the North launched a record number of at least 95 missiles, including a long-range ICBM capable of hitting the American mainland. The tally has reached 26 so far this year. A nuclear test, the seventh by Pyongyang and its first since 2017, is also expected. Although the North’s real capabilities and intentions remain uncertain, one thing has become clear: sanctions and pressure alone cannot convince the North to peacefully relinquish its nuclear and missile program.
What should be done? Doing nothing is not effective, as experience shows. The administration of President Joe Biden, dubbed by some as “Strategic Negligence Season II” when it comes to North Korea policy, is advised to move ahead to start dialogue on smaller issues rather than Trump's “grand bargain" or “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” in a single stroke. In this way, Washington might be able to convince Pyongyang to engage. From there, trust may accumulate.
The very first step in this endeavor needs to be offering what the North wants most: ending what the North perceives as “hostile policy” against it. “Diplomacy with North Korea must factor in an understanding of the Kim regime’s fears and insecurity,” says Patrick M. Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at US think tank the Hudson Institute, in his 2021 report, “Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions.”
“Because war and peace involve international relations between two or more actors, national goals must consider other actors’ core interests, concerns and aspirations. US policy must rest on the most accurate and complete view of North Korea’s threat perceptions possible,” Cronin says. He explains the report seeks to stimulate creative policy options to help Washington and Seoul decision-makers manage one of Asia’s significant flashpoints.
“Perceived threat” was one of the factors that helped transform Lim Dong-won, a former South Korean unification minister and national security adviser, from an anti-communist military strategist to a key player in Kim Dae-jung’s “Sunshine Policy” to engage North Korea.
“Given the huge gap in national power between North and South, an unfavorable development of the international environment for the North and its bankrupt economy, North Korea is seeking survival amidst fears of absorption by the South,” Lim wrote in his book, “Peacemaker” (Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, 2012). “We should have the right assessment of North Korea. With confidence, we should build the right environment for the North to change. We should peacefully manage the division.”
In the same book, Lim recalled how former US President Bill Clinton regretted canceling his visit to Pyongyang in 2000. “If I had one more year in office, the fate of the Korean Peninsula would have been different,” Clinton told President Kim when he visited Seoul five years later. Lim has repeatedly stressed that the United States is the only country that can resolve the North Korea nuclear issue because it fundamentally stems from what the North perceives as Washington’s “hostile” policy against it.
Biden may revisit the Clinton administration when Seoul-Washington coordination in Norea Korea policy enjoyed its peak years. He may consider how to formally end the Korean War. Then attention could shift to removing fears of resumed conflict and possible arms reduction, convincing the North that disposing its nuclear weapons would open the door to economic transformation and ultimately lead to a stronger existence.
Lee Kyong-hee
Lee Kyong-hee is a former editor-in-chief of The Korea Herald. -- Ed.
By Korea Herald (khnews@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · July 5, 2023
14. Can the UN Secretary-General Help the 2,000 North Koreans Detained in China?
Although China is unlikely to cooperate, we still have to maintain pressure on the UN to try to pressure China. But China remains complicit in north Korea;s human rights abuses and it must be called out.
Conclusion:
The refugee problem in China is not a large one, but it is a very cruel one. Current High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has extensive experience with refugee protection, as does the current High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. The International Organization for Migration could also help. But leadership is needed for a multilateral effort of governments and the United Nations. In the past, following diplomatic intercessions, China on occasion has allowed North Koreans to depart its country. Now is the time for an intercession led by the highest level of the U.N.
.
Can the UN Secretary-General Help the 2,000 North Koreans Detained in China?
With every reason to believe North Koreans would face persecution and torture back home, the U.N. must take a stronger stance on China’s repatriation of North Korean refugees.
thediplomat.com · by Roberta Cohen · July 5, 2023
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Up to 2,000 North Koreans are being held in Chinese detention centers for leaving North Korea without permission, for residing illegally in China, or for coming officially to work in China but not wanting to return. Their forced repatriation by China may be imminent, since North Korea is expected to reopen its borders soon.
Increasingly, eyes are turning to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as international appeals grow for the release of the North Koreans held in China. At a hearing in Washington, D.C., of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, its chair, U.S. Representative Chris Smith, appealed to Guterres to “please use your influence to the utmost to dissuade the Chinese government from forcibly repatriating these refugees.”
If returned, the North Koreans will be severely punished. The U.N. Commission of Inquiry (COI) report of 2014 provides ample evidence of the systematic beatings, torture, detention, forced labor, and in some cases, execution of those who left North Korea illegally, in particular those who tried to reach South Korea. A 2020 report of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) further documented the “appalling” treatment, including sexual violence, to which North Korean women are subject when returned. Because of the persecution they will face, the COI concluded that North Koreans who leave their country without permission merit international protection: they are refugees sur place.
What can the U.N. secretary-general do to defend these people?
First, Guterres can use the stature of his office to bring attention to the problem. His press spokesperson said on June 13 that the secretary-general “stands for the respect of international refugee law and against refoulement.” But it would be far more powerful if Guterres spoke directly and sought a solution for the North Koreans.
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China signed the 1951 Refugee Convention, which prohibits the return of refugees to conditions of danger; it also acceded to the Convention against Torture, which prohibits the return of anyone “in danger of being subject to torture.” Clearly, China needs to be reminded of its obligations, which the secretary-general can do with authority. When Guterres was U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), he raised the question of forced repatriation with China when he visited in 2006. And in 2013, he expressed grave concern about a group of North Koreans China was expected to return: “UNHCR is deeply concerned about the safety and fundamental human rights of these individuals if they are returned” to North Korea.
Were he to make an appeal today, it would establish that the secretary-general gives prominence to the issue of human rights in North Korea, not only its weapons program. And it would help eviscerate China’s thin rationale that the North Koreans are illegal migrants, not refugees, who will face no punishment upon return.
Indeed, Guterres would do well to reveal that UNHCR staff, when allowed access to the China-North Korea border in the mid 1990s, classified starving North Koreans as refugees, because they were subject to North Korea’s politically discriminatory food distribution policies. To squash such findings, China barred UNHCR from the border in the late 1990s, and in 2008 ended the access of North Koreans to the UNHCR office in Beijing, which had helped small groups of North Koreans to depart. China’s collusion with North Korea in undermining the Refugee Convention through bilateral agreements that treat asylum seekers as criminals must be stopped.
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Second, Guterres should use his good offices to create a contact group of states to find a diplomatic solution. The group should include governments that can effectively raise the issue with China, countries affected by the refugee problem, and countries prepared to house North Koreans temporarily while their future is determined. To be sure, South Korea considers North Koreans to be its citizens, but in the current political climate, other countries in Asia might be better suited to take in the North Koreans as a first step.
Third, the secretary-general should call upon UNHCR, the agency set up to defend non-refoulement, together with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to develop strategies for gaining safe passage for the North Koreans. UNHCR China’s website doesn’t even mention North Koreans, although it lists other “persons of concern” who can be registered by UNHCR. Furthermore, while noting the “de facto integration” of more than 300,000 Indochinese refugees, it makes no mention of the tens of thousands of North Koreans hiding in China who would find integration a protective measure from Pyongyang’s persecution. China instead has been cracking down on North Korean workers on its territory and also on North Korean women married to Chinese men, whom the authorities sometimes separate from their children and husbands to forcibly return them to North Korea.
The refugee problem in China is not a large one, but it is a very cruel one. Current High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has extensive experience with refugee protection, as does the current High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. The International Organization for Migration could also help. But leadership is needed for a multilateral effort of governments and the United Nations. In the past, following diplomatic intercessions, China on occasion has allowed North Koreans to depart its country. Now is the time for an intercession led by the highest level of the U.N.
GUEST AUTHOR
Roberta Cohen
Roberta Cohen is co-chair emeritus of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, a leading human rights group in the United States in consultative status with the United Nations.
thediplomat.com · by Roberta Cohen · July 5, 2023
15. Column: Increasing tensions between North and South Korea reflect profound realities
Column: Increasing tensions between North and South Korea reflect profound realities
Chicago Tribune · by Arthur I. CyrLake County News-Sun•Jul 05, 2023 at 10:32 am
“The training offered the alliance an opportunity to further strengthen its interoperability by demonstrating a combined defense capability, rapid deployment, and extended deterrence in the defense of the Korean Peninsula,”
This U.S. Air Force news release, issued June 30, describes drills in South Korea involving intercontinental B-52 bombers, along with tactical fighter aircraft. The media message describes significant escalation in the ongoing confrontation between North and South Korea.
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The B-52 Stratofortresses that traveled from the U.S. date from the 1950s and the height of the Cold War. They have undergone retrofitting over the years, but remain essentially as designed and constructed more than a half-century ago.
The B-52 is not only an example of the exceptional military design and development capabilities of this country, but also a symbolic reminder of the continuity of some conflicts in the world as well as the horrific possibility of nuclear war.
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This bomber has proven to be flexible as well as durable, in ways unforeseen during its original creation. The construction in the 1950s was a function primarily of the need to deter the Soviet Union from the potential delivery of nuclear weapons on targets there and elsewhere. By the following decade, B-52s were actually delivering conventional bombs on targets in both North and South Vietnam during our long war there.
The B-52s in the current exercise flew from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. They are separate from others, deployed to South Korea since mid-June, that are from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota.
Additionally, the Biden administration plans to send the largest nuclear-armed U.S. submarine to South Korea for the first time in four decades. The powerful Ohio-class submarine is capable of staying submerged indefinitely and remain on patrol for months.
Remarkable long-range capabilities represent starkly the capacities of technology to bridge and minimize the challenges of geography, including the exceptional distances across the Pacific Ocean.
South Korea has also been recently visited by the USS Michigan, a submarine armed with cruise missiles, capable of great flexibility and deception in flight. This ship is actively involved in combined South Korea-U. S. special operations training.
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Military partnership between our two nations is exceptionally close, dating from the devastating Korean War of 1950-1953. During our long Vietnam War, the Republic of Korea maintained approximately 50,000 troops in South Vietnam.
In contrast to U.S. military force profiles, almost all these soldiers and marines were combat troops. Their approach to combat sparked some controversies, but there was no doubt that they were extremely effective. North Vietnam Army and Viet Cong revolutionary forces actively tried to avoid contact with the Koreans.
North Korea is engaged in ominous long-range missile tests, with evidence of steady improvement in launch and delivery capabilities. U.S. efforts to restrict this dangerous behavior by working through the United Nations have been consistently stymied by China and Russia.
Expanding cooperation between Seoul and Washington builds directly on South Korea President Yoon suk-yeol’s successful six-day visit to Washington D.C. in April, marking the 70th anniversary of the vital alliance between our two nations.
As emphasized in an earlier column, President Yoon has opportunities to develop a starring global leadership role, with noisy North Korea shunted off to stage left.
At a White House state dinner, he sang Don McLean’s 1971 song, “American Pie.”
Arthur I. Cyr is the author of “After the Cold War — American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia” (NYU Press and Palgrave/Macmillan; Korean language edition by Oruem Publishing). He can be reached at acyr@carthage.edu
Chicago Tribune · by Arthur I. CyrLake County News-Sun•Jul 05, 2023 at 10:32 am
16. S. Korean, U.S. Army troops to stage combined drills in California desert next month
S. Korean, U.S. Army troops to stage combined drills in California desert next month | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · July 5, 2023
SEOUL, July 5 (Yonhap) -- South Korean and U.S. Army troops will stage a joint four-week exercise in a desert in California next month, officials said Wednesday, as the allies seek to bolster their combined operational capabilities.
Some 150 personnel, including those from the 7th Maneuver Corps' air assault unit and the Capital Mechanized Infantry Division, will join the drills set to take place at the U.S. National Training Center (NTC) in the Mojave Desert in California from Aug. 2 to 31, according to the South Korean Army.
The exercise will begin with terrain reconnaissance and tactical discussions before carrying out attack and defense operations for 10 days. It will also include training on field combat firing.
The armed service has deployed around 90 to 150 special operations troops for the regular combined drills at the NTC since 2014. It marks the first time for it to send a company-level mechanized infantry unit to the exercise.
The Army said it expects the drills to train troops on combat skills of small combined units and to serve as an opportunity to boost combined operational capabilities.
It added that it plans to gradually increase the number and size of the exercises at the NTC based on the progress made in this year's exercise.
This file photo, provided by the Defense Daily on Aug. 24, 2022, shows South Korean and U.S. troops shaking hands as they take part in combined drills in the eastern county of Inje, 126 kilometers northeast of Seoul. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · July 5, 2023
17. The revolving door: Why people end up quitting the North Korea field
I have been dealing with Korea issues since 1986 but I am not yet burned out. (At least I do not think so but maybe I have not taken the first step of the 12 steps and admitted I have a problem) There is still much more to learn and understand about north Korea and the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime. I know all the people in the article and worked with a number of them. The most frustrating thing about dealing with nK issues is people who think they know about north Korea but we have ended up spending a lot of time trying to help them understand the fundamentals. Some (but not all as there are many excellent ones!) policy makers in DOD and State and the NSC are “drive by north Korea experts” and really only deal with it when something happens and because they are in a billet that is related to north Korea. But as I usually open my lectures there are no North Korean experts - at best we are students of the problem.Anyone who calls themselves an expert is suspect. I also usually have to add the caveat that while I will make declarative statements that sound like facts (since I have internalized so much of my research) everything I say can and should be challenged. The problem is often that we can be challenged but most people do not offer any substantive alternative views because most challenges are just based on people’s feelings and disbelief about what we believe is the actual nature of the regime.
The revolving door: Why people end up quitting the North Korea field
Frustration at lack of progress among factors driving exodus, which some fear could diminish understanding of DPRK
Chad O'Carroll June 30, 2023
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A North Korean woman stands next to an open door in Sept. 2018 | Image: NK News
North Korea has long captured the minds of a worldwide community of experts, activists and journalists, united in trying to better understand, explain or in some way help what is arguably the most idiosyncratic country on Earth.
But there’s an underreported phenomenon unfolding behind the scenes: Every year, a steady stream of people quietly leave the North Korea field.
Burnout, frustration or disillusionment — the reasons vary, but the result is an ongoing exodus that could lead to new problems further down the line.
“The average tenure of an active and prominent North Korea expert, especially an activist, ranges between five and ten years,” according to Andrei Lankov, a director at Korea Risk Group who has been researching North Korea since the 1980s.
He said that North Korea watchers often lack deep investment in the field, such as proficiency in the Korean language, resulting in limited “sunk costs” that would otherwise incentivize longer-term commitment.
“Among the people who were doing, who were active in the field, say 15 or 20 years ago, nearly all are gone,” Lankov said.
Jeffrey Robertson, an associate professor at Yonsei University, identified low barriers to entry as a significant lure for many, noting factors like the challenge of information verification and the existence of “replicable consensus views.”
“This means exiting occurs for a wide variety of reasons including advancement to more profitable non-North Korea ventures” and frustration with a perceived lack of opportunities in North Korea-related fields, he explained.
But not all long-time Korea analysts believe turnover is as severe a problem. “I have rather the opposite impression,” said Aidan Foster-Carter, a fellow at Leeds University who has worked on North Korea-related issues for over 50 years.
“People tend to stick with North Korea, having invested time, language, and money, and building careers in, on or around this peculiar neck of the woods.”
An illustration of a researcher
DISIlLUSIONMENT AND FRUSTRATION
North Korea stands out as a paradox — elusive to understand and predict, yet surprisingly accessible for professionals looking to make their mark.
But some experts said the transience of the field is not only due to its easy-entry, easy-exit nature. They pointed to different push factors, in particular growing disillusionment and frustration with the seemingly static state of North Korean issues.
“People typically engage with North Korea … on the assumption that some good beneficial changes are coming,” Lankov said. “But when after a few years they discover that nothing seriously changed, they lose interest and start to think about calling it quits.”
Geoffrey See, the founder of Choson Exchange who has since stepped away from the NGO supporting entrepreneurship in North Korea, told NK News that working on the DPRK for so long left him pessimistic about being able to positively affect change with his organization.
“[There’s a] lack of innovation and interest in pursuing new solutions/approaches,” See said, making “stagnation” a problem. It appeared to him as if everyone working on North Korea issues was “stuck in the same arguments” and there was no innovation. It felt “like groundhog day,” he opined.
On top of that, See said that declining interest among donors to provide funding for projects relating to North Korea made it hard to continue at the pace his organization would have liked.
Jack Pritchard, former U.S. special envoy to North Korea under George W. Bush, agreed that repetitiveness was an issue.
“It had the unfortunate result of viewing unfolding events as ‘a slightly different version of what we had already experienced’ and, therefore, predictable and not necessarily significant,” he explained.
But others said the lack of dynamism in the North Korea field can actually be a plus.
“Viewed correctly, repetition is the golden goose,” said Robert Carlin, a former CIA analyst on DPRK. “It makes possible comparing the North’s treatment of similar events over time, and then in context, provides insights.”
Nor does everyone who does or has worked on related issues see them as unmoving. Linda Lewis, former country director for the American Friends Service Committee, an NGO that worked inside North Korea, said she experienced many ups and downs during her tenure on DPRK issues.
“I have gone through several periods of significant hope and also deep discouragement over the years,” she said. This included “periods when my own particular skills and strengths could make a difference — and when they couldn’t.”
But the DPRK’s closure of the border in Jan. 2020 — combined with growing U.S. and Chinese restrictions on NGO-related activities — made it particularly hard for her to maintain relationships with DPRK partners, a situation in which she said it was “impossible really to even do any work.”
South Korean soldiers facing North Korea at Panmunjom in March 2023 | Image: NK News
BORDER BOREDOM
Travel agencies that focus on North Korea have also seen interest wane since the outbreak of COVID-19 due to the lack of tours. Journalists, analysts and commentators have also found that the extended border closure is making their job harder to do, leading some away from the field.
Ethan Jewell, a former NK News and NK Pro reporter who left journalism in early 2023, said the long border closures had made it much harder to write novel material about the DPRK.
“This makes it extremely hard to be a reporter, especially when your entire job is to find new and interesting stories, preferably with the requirement that there’s some sort of primary source,” he said.
Carlin, the former CIA agent, said he is increasingly focusing his research interests elsewhere. “To some extent the North Koreans have deliberately given us less to write about in the past several years … to be blunt.”
Washington’s own deprioritization of North Korea has been a factor for some. Jewell agreed there was a “sense of stagnation in the field” compared to the 2017-2018 period, when the DPRK was seemingly Washington’s top national security concern.
Harry Kazianis, a former North Korea commentator who now serves as president of the Rogue States Project, said he gave “over 1,000” TV and radio interviews from 2017 to 2019 due to extreme interest in North Korea at the time and found wide readership online for op-eds.
Then Biden took over and “downgraded the North Korea issue to something that is less than a third-tier issue.”
Now, “the simple fact is no administration or reporter wants to hear that North Korea will never give up their nuclear weapons or missiles and that we need to make peace with that fact,” Kazianis said.
North Korea at present doesn’t present a political “win” for Republics or Democrats, he explained, and that realization contributed to his decision to move on to other topics, Kazianis said.
North Koreans walking on a street in Oct. 2016 | Image: NK News
REMEMBERING BAD TIMES
Some experts who have worked on North Korea for years also cited less recent developments that have left them feeling frustrated.
“Anyone who worked on North Korea from 1992-2001 and then watched the Bush administration dismantle the Agreed Framework — simply trash all the effort that went into negotiating and then implementing it with no thought what to do next — would have been discouraged,” Carlin said of his own experience.
Pritchard, the former U.S. Special Envoy on North Korea, agreed that the Clinton-to-Bush transition caused a lot of frustration in the North Korea specialist community.
“My most difficult period was during the George W. Bush administration, when influential members established the two-fold principle that ‘we don’t reward bad behavior’ and ‘we will treat what North Korea wants most — direct talks with the U.S. — as something they have to earn,’” he said.
Pritchard added that the North Korean interlocutors didn’t give him much to work with either.
“Early in my work, I was told that getting North Korea to do what seemed like something that was in its best interest was like leading a horse to water and not being able to make it drink,” he said.
Pritchard said his retirement from professional policy made it hard to justify continuing playing a role in the field.
“As players changed on all sides and direct information became harder to obtain, I realized that I should not be heard as an authoritative voice on current events” linked to Pyongyang,” he said.
Consequently, Pritchard said he left the field to make space for those “who had better access and whose analysis was solid … who ought to be in the forefront.”
Meanwhile, Carlin still works on North Korea, though admittedly less prolifically. “When I reach the point that I know everything there is to know about all aspects of the North’s political and social landscape, then I suppose it will impact my enthusiasm,” he said. “That hasn’t happened yet, not even close.”
A North Korean sitting on a bench in Oct. 2016 | Image: NK News
INTO THE FUTURE
A wide range of experts still work on North Korea issues long-term, but it is possible that well-known names may reconsider the level of their work on the topic if the border remains closed and there’s little interest in political capitals around the world.
In fact, some who spoke to NK News about their choice to leave the field, but who asked not to be named, said they decided to quit because they had already given up any chance of contributing to positive change on North Korea issues.
The bleak outlook, Lankov of Kookmin University said, will lessen global understanding of DPRK issues.
When people leave the field, “a great deal of experience is lost,” he said. And when new people enter, “they repeat the same mistakes and act on the same wrong assumptions” as those from earlier generations.
Lankov believes the problem is unlikely to go away any time soon. People “believe that their contribution will make a difference,” he said. “When they discover it’s not the case, they just leave the field.”
For people to really contribute to North Korea, whether in the nuclear space, human rights issues, or even climate change, they must be prepared to think long term, he said.
“North Korea policy is a marathon,” he said.
Edited by Arius Derr
18. South Korea, Japan leaders due to meet on sidelines of NATO summit -Seoul
Another positive step forward. This NATO summit could have a lot of positive outcomes.
South Korea, Japan leaders due to meet on sidelines of NATO summit -Seoul
theprint.in · by Reuters · July 6, 2023
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SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea is coordinating with Japan to hold a meeting between their leaders on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Lithuania next week, a South Korean presidential official said on Thursday.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will depart Seoul on Monday for a trip that will also include a visit to Poland, Yoon’s deputy national security adviser, Kim Tae-hyo, said.
“We are coordinating with Japan to hold a South Korea-Japan summit during this overseas trip,” Kim told reporters.
The planned meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is likely to address Japan’s planned discharge of its treated radioactive water from the tsunami-wrecked Fukushima plant into the ocean.
After a two-year review, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Tuesday Japan’s plans were consistent with global safety standards and that they would have a “negligible radiological impact to people and the environment”.
South Korea has said it will issue its own assessment of the discharge plan on Friday.
Separately, Yoon will also hold a meeting with leaders of Japan, Australia and New Zealand on the sidelines of the NATO summit, Kim said.
(Reporting by Soo-hyang Choi; Editing by Ed Davies)
Disclaimer: This report is auto generated from the Reuters news service. ThePrint holds no responsibilty for its content.
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theprint.in · by Reuters · July 6, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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