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Quotes of the Day:
"Political warfare includes all measures short of war... for hostile intent through discrete, subversive, or overt means short of open combat... Whereas gray zone tells us where along a spectrum between war and peace activities take place, political warfare tells us why."
- Matt Armstrong
"Irregular warfare is a means by which the United States uses all elements of national power to project influence abroad to counter state adversaries, defeat hostile nonstate actors, deter wider conflict, and maintain peace in great-power competition.”
– Christopher Miller, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise,Chapter 4, Department of Defense
"In short, the strategic problem of the United States has two aspects: to create a level of thermo-nuclear strength to deter the Soviet bloc from a major war, or from aggressions in areas which cannot be defended by an indigenous effort; but to integrate this with a policy which does not paralyze the will to resist in areas where local resources for defense do exist.
But is there any deterrent to Sino-Soviet aggression other than the threat of general war? Does not a policy of peripheral actions run counter to the geographic realities of the situation, specifically to the fact that the U.S.S.R. possesses interior lines of communication and can therefore assemble a superior force at any given point?
It must be admitted that we alone cannot possibly defend the Soviet periphery by local actions; nor can we intervene without the cooperation of the local governments. Our immediate task must be to shore up the indigenous will to resist, which in the "grey areas" means all the measures on which a substantial consensus seems to exist: a political program to gain the confidence of local populations and to remove the stigma of colonialism from us, together with a measure of economic assistance and similar steps. But though a political program may be essential it will prove useless without an increase in the capacities for local defense. Few political leaders will run the risk of foreign occupation even though liberation is to follow eventually."
– Henry Kissinger, Military Policy and Defense of the Grey Areas, Foreign Affairs, April 1955
1. Will North Korea Soon Have MIRV Capability for its Ballistic Missiles?
2. NATO seeks to build practical cooperation with S. Korea on Ukraine, defense industry: chief
3. Tensions spike in the buffer zone between North and South Korea as clash fears grow
4. Expectations grow for S. Korea-U.S. cooperation in military logistics, MRO
5. Speaking Out | North Korea Sent Military Engineers for Ukraine War
6. Russian kids will go to 'excellent' summer camps in North Korea this year as the two countries move close
7. Opinion | As nuclear tensions rise, are US defence plans for South Korea workable?
8. China and Russia ready for Pacific Rim drill in US, Japan and South Korea’s wake
9. China treads complex path between North and South Korea as nuclear risk rises
10. S. Korea congratulates Iran's new president
1. Will North Korea Soon Have MIRV Capability for its Ballistic Missiles?
Important analysis from Dr. Bruce Bechtol.
Will North Korea Soon Have MIRV Capability for its Ballistic Missiles?
nationalsecurityjournal.org · by Bruce Bechtol Jr. · July 5, 2024
HWASONG-18 ICBM North Korea. Image Credit: North Korean state media.
On June 26, 2024, the North Koreans conducted a test of what they called MIRV technology. Pyongyang claimed the test “aimed at securing the MIRV capability,” and also claimed that during the test, the North Koreans “successfully conducted the separation and guidance control test of individual mobile warheads.” The DPRK also claimed that the mobile warheads were guided to three separate targets. Officials speaking on behalf of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that there was a missile test, but the missile exploded in the air around 250 kilometers from launch. This is the first time that North Korea has publicly announced that it is testing a multiple warhead ballistic missile capability.
Could North Korea Really Have MIRV Missiles?
The recent missile test using what the North Koreans are calling MIRV technology leads to several questions: How legitimate are Pyongyang’s claims that the test was using MIRV technology?
Where did this technology come from? How close are the North Koreans to integrating MIRV technology into their operational ballistic missile fleet?
And, of course, finally, will this be a “game changer?”
What We Know
MIRV technology is not only quite advanced, it is also rare. Even though this technology was developed by the United States in the 1960s, only five nations are known to possess that capability – the U.S., UK, France, China, and Russia.
Thus, asking the question if North Korea is legitimately developing MIRV technology for a ballistic missile is quite prudent. Based on data acquired since the launch, it appears that the missile used for the launch was the first stage of a previously used, solid-fuel ballistic missile – possibly the Hwasong-16. The second stage is still unclear but it is obviously the vehicle that was meant to deploy the warheads.
Unfortunately for the North Koreans, the missile booster exploded apparently before any warheads could be launched (despite what the North Koreans reported). Thus, this was a failed test, but likely the first of several designed to develop the potential of MIRV technology. So yes, it appears that Pyongyang’s claims that it is developing this technology appear to be legitimate.
The rather disturbing information described above leads one to the question, where did this technology come from? Those analysts who have consistently followed North Korean military capabilities over the years know that it would be impossible for North Korean scientists and engineers to suddenly roll out of bed one morning with the bright idea of how to develop MIRV technology for Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles – particularly given the uniqueness and sophistication of developing systems with such a capability. Therefore, the answer should be obvious. It is almost undoubtedly the Russians who have provided this technology. The North Koreans have been providing the Russians with ammunition, artillery, small weapons and even ballistic missiles for their fight in Ukraine since 2022. While many have opined on the price that Moscow is paying for all of these weapons and ammunition, most agree that the Russians are likely providing assistance for a variety of systems that Kim Jong-un wants to develop for his military. After analyzing the recent test in June, it appears very likely that this is one of the systems with which Russia is provided technological assistance.
Given the apparent lack of success of the recent North Korean test launch attempting to use MIRV technology, one cannot help but ask the question, how close are the North Koreans to integrating this technology into their ballistic missile fleet? The answer is it depends. What it depends on is how much technological support the Russians will provide for this technology and how quickly they will provide it. Of course, if the Russians wanted to give North Korea everything that they needed to make this technology operational for Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles, they could do it tomorrow. Based on the recent test, that does not appear to be the case.
What does appear likely to be the case is that we will see several more of these tests, with increasing technological capabilities in each succeeding test. But there is no way of knowing how much support the Russians are likely to provide (for a price, of course) in addition to what they already have. Thus, the timeline for seeing ballistic missiles with MIRV capabilities is likely based largely on what the Russians provide and how quickly they provide it. Based on the large amount of arms trade North Korea and Russia are engaged in, that timeframe is likely to be shorter rather than longer. The recent Putin visit and Russia’s role in ending the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea are both actions that lead us to believe Russia will not hesitate to work with North Korea when Putin feels it is in his interests to fight the war in Ukraine.
A MIRV Game Changer for North Korea?
While this recent ballistic missile test gained justifiable attention and concern, the important question that must be asked is, will this capability be a “game changer?” The answer is quite possibly.
If successful, MIRV technology could greatly complicate the ballistic missile defense (BMD) mission in South Korea, Japan, and, of course, the United States. It would mean attempting to shoot down several warheads shot from just one missile, and if a volley of missiles was to be launched, it would greatly exacerbate this threat.
The biggest implications for security in Northeast Asia and the United States from a MIRV capability will likely evolve around BMD. It will be important to ensure Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo are working together to strengthen and advance BMD capabilities. Some of this is happening already. In addition, as the exchange of technology and systems continues to advance between North Korea and Russia, sanctions must not only be initiated but strictly enforced.
Because there is little doubt that North Korea will continue to advance it ballistic programs as quickly as possible.
About the Author: Dr Bruce E. Bechtol
Now a National Security Journal Contributing Editor, Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. is an award-winning professor of Political Science at Angelo State University. He is also the Chairman of the Board of the International Council on Korean Studies and a fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies. The author of five books dealing with North Korea, his latest work is North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa.
In this article:
Written By Bruce Bechtol Jr.
Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. is professor of political science at Angelo State University. A retired Marine, he has also served as an intelligence officer for the Defense Intelligence Agency. He has published numerous articles and is the author of several books, including North Korean Military Proliferation to the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability, North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma, and The Last Days of Kim Jong-Il: The North Korean Threat in a Changing Era.
nationalsecurityjournal.org · by Bruce Bechtol Jr. · July 5, 2024
2. NATO seeks to build practical cooperation with S. Korea on Ukraine, defense industry: chief
South Korea must come to its own conclusion that it is in its best interest to provide aid (to include lethal aid) to help a fellow democracy defend its freedom. South Korea can and must become a full partner in the Arsenal of Democracy for the free world.
NATO seeks to build practical cooperation with S. Korea on Ukraine, defense industry: chief | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · July 5, 2024
BRUSSELS, July 5 (Yonhap) -- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will discuss ways with South Korea to build practical cooperation related to Ukraine, cyber and new technologies at the upcoming summit in Washington, its chief said Friday.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he has invited the leaders of South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand to the NATO summit for the third consecutive year to expand the security alliance's partnership with the countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
"South Korea is a highly regarded partner," Stoltenberg said in a pre-summit news conference at NATO headquarters in
Brussels. "The president is attending. I think that reflects how we have deepened and strengthened our partnership."
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during an interview with Yonhap News Agency at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on June 27, 2024, in this photo provided by NATO. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
Stoltenberg underscored the importance of working with the Indo-Pacific partners at a time when Russia is continuing its war in Ukraine with help from North Korea, Iran and China.
"Iran and North Korea are fuelling Russia's war with drones and shells. China is propping up Russia's war economy, and providing microelectronics and other dual-use goods for Russia's war," he said. "The closer that authoritarian actors align, the more important it is that we work closely with our friends in the Indo-Pacific."
At the upcoming summit, Stoltenberg said NATO will build on practical cooperation for "flagship projects" on Ukraine, cyber and new technologies and discuss defense industry cooperation with South Korea.
"The flagship project is partly about the medical education of Ukrainian soldiers," he said. "We are also looking into how we can expand the exchange of intelligence information with South Korea."
During last year's summit in Lithuania, Yoon said South Korea will increase military information sharing with NATO through the Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation System, which helps members share military secrets and determine the next steps based on the information.
Yoon will visit Washington on July 10-11 to participate in the NATO summit as a partner nation, which would focus on ways to expand cooperation with the security alliance in response to deepening ties between Pyongyang and Moscow.
South Korea has said it would consider sending weapons to Ukraine in a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin's signing of a mutual defense treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their summit last month.
"We will send a strong message regarding the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and discuss ways to enhance cooperation among NATO allies and Indo-Pacific partners," Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo said in a briefing Friday.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · July 5, 2024
3. Tensions spike in the buffer zone between North and South Korea as clash fears grow
It is nice to see the unsung work of the NNSC recognized.
Excerpts:
Tasked with monitoring these developments is Major General Ivo Burgener, head of the Swiss delegation to the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC). Currently made up of five Swiss and five Swedish soldiers who live inside the DMZ, the NNSC has monitored adherence to the Korean war’s armistice agreement since it was signed in 1953. While this armistice ended hostilities, a peace treaty was never signed and both sides remain technically at war.
Stationed in a hut just metres from the North Korean border, Burgener and the NNSC have a frontline view of how the frozen conflict has developed. Since the start of the year, they have noticed a significant remilitarisation on both sides of the DMZ.
“There are more activities in the DMZ,” Burgener adds, also citing an increase in soldiers, weapons, and construction activity. “The situation is becoming more uncertain.”
With Pyongyang developing its military infrastructure, destroying sections of road, building walls, and planting landmines, explosions from the Northern side now also regularly interrupt the NNSC’s work. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported recently that North Korean soldiers had sustained “multiple casualties” caused by landmines exploding on the Northern side of the DMZ.
Tensions spike in the buffer zone between North and South Korea as clash fears grow
As fears rise over an armed clash in the demilitarised zone, Jan Camenzind Broomby speaks to Swiss soldiers and worried local residents about what might come next
Independent · July 4, 2024
In Majeong-ri, South Korea, Yoon Seol Hyun proudly claims to run the closest guesthouse to North Korea. Only a bridge, a set of guard posts, and several lines of barbed wire fence separate his village from the demilitarised zone (DMZ) which splits the Korean peninsula in two.
Normally, his hostel offers a peaceful getaway for locals visiting from the nearby capital of Seoul. But tensions between the North and the South have spiked recently and Yoon is worried, with a number of incidents around the DMZ, which is 150 miles long and 2.5 miles wide.
Last month, a number of North Korean soldiers – believed to be between 20 and 30 – briefly crossed the demarcation line on three occasions, retreating after soldiers from the South fired warning shots. Seoul said the incidents were likely accidents. Meanwhile, the North has been sending balloons filled with rubbish over the border, it claims in retaliation for a propaganda campaign by North Korean defectors and activists in the South who regularly send over balloons carrying food, medicine, money and leaflets criticising the North’s leaders.
Yoon worries that if things escalate, both sides of the peninsula will go from trading balloons to trading bullets and bombs instead, and that his village will be the first to be impacted.
“Hostility between South and North is higher,” he says. “This area is close to the border, it is very serious, we worry about that.”
Yoon Seol Hyun claims to run the closest guesthouse to North Korea (Jan Camenzind Broomby)
Tasked with monitoring these developments is Major General Ivo Burgener, head of the Swiss delegation to the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC). Currently made up of five Swiss and five Swedish soldiers who live inside the DMZ, the NNSC has monitored adherence to the Korean war’s armistice agreement since it was signed in 1953. While this armistice ended hostilities, a peace treaty was never signed and both sides remain technically at war.
Stationed in a hut just metres from the North Korean border, Burgener and the NNSC have a frontline view of how the frozen conflict has developed. Since the start of the year, they have noticed a significant remilitarisation on both sides of the DMZ.
“There are more activities in the DMZ,” Burgener adds, also citing an increase in soldiers, weapons, and construction activity. “The situation is becoming more uncertain.”
With Pyongyang developing its military infrastructure, destroying sections of road, building walls, and planting landmines, explosions from the Northern side now also regularly interrupt the NNSC’s work. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported recently that North Korean soldiers had sustained “multiple casualties” caused by landmines exploding on the Northern side of the DMZ.
“We are seeing more and more militarisation efforts,” explains NNSC operations officer Lieutenant Colonel Livio Raeber. “There is more military equipment inside the DMZ.” Previously unarmed soldiers that face off on either side of the border are now once again armed, and both sides have begun to rebuild formerly decommissioned guard posts.
While the balloons are described by analysts as “low-level provocations,” Burgener points out that they have not helped to de-escalate tensions.
Major General Ivo Burgener pictured metres from the military demarcation line between the two countries (Jan Camenzind Broomby)
“The possibility of an escalation is higher than before, and this is something that we monitor very closely,” Raeber adds.
“The risk of misunderstandings and unplanned incidents along the DMZ are rising,” says Burgener. In a worst-case scenario, he warned this could lead to “escalation, the outbreak of a conflict”.
At the start of the year, North Korea's Kim Jong-un branded the South a “principal enemy” and relations on the Korean peninsula are now arguably “at the lowest point in the last five or six years”, said Dr Edward Howell, a Korean Foundation fellow at Chatham House.
Kim’s recent meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which culminated in the signing of a strategic partnership agreement between the two, has also added to the tension. The guesthouse owner Yoon says that things do not need to be this bad.
In 2018, both sides signed an agreement, aimed at decreasing tensions by partially demilitarising the DMZ, and he was hopeful that the agreement could mitigate the risk of conflict.
“We were very thankful,” he says. “Those times were more peaceful.”
Now, Yoon's phone buzzes with alerts. Issued by authorities in Seoul, they warn of more incoming balloons and other notes. Yoon sees his responsibility to help maintain peace and he regularly organises events to educate tourists about the area.
And despite living on the frontlines of this frozen conflict, he has no intention of leaving. “This is my hometown,” he says. “I was born in this village, my father, my grandfather was born in this village.”
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Armed clash fears in the buffer zone between North and South Korea
Yoon Seol Hyun claims to run the closest guesthouse to North Korea
Jan Camenzind Broomby
Armed clash fears in the buffer zone between North and South Korea
Major General Ivo Burgener pictured metres from the military demarcation line between the two countries
Jan Camenzind Broomby
Armed clash fears in the buffer zone between North and South Korea
A South Korean soldier guards his post on the border with the North
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Independent · July 4, 2024
4. Expectations grow for S. Korea-U.S. cooperation in military logistics, MRO
This is where the serious work takes place. Tactical operations and warfighting get all the visibility but they are nothing without logistics.
(News Focus) Expectations grow for S. Korea-U.S. cooperation in military logistics, MRO | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 6, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, July 5 (Yonhap) -- Beyond their trade in flashy weapons, South Korea and the United States appear to be headed for close cooperation in a lesser-known, yet crucial defense area: military logistics and maintenance particularly in the event of a regional crisis.
Seoul and Washington signed an arrangement in November to prioritize the supply of defense materials and goods to each other. They have also been seeking to ink a reciprocal defense procurement agreement designed to curtail trade barriers.
The efforts on such deals are likely to pave the way for defense industrial and logistical cooperation in broad terms, observers said, at a time when the wartime imperative to ensure a sustainable and swift supply of military products has been highlighted since Russia's war of attrition in Ukraine.
The endeavors are also in line with Washington's "regional sustainment framework," an initiative announced in May to leverage regional allies and partners to ensure logistical readiness in a potentially contested area far away from the U.S. mainland, such as the Taiwan Strait.
This photo, released by the Associated Press, shows U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaking during a press briefing at the Pentagon near Washington on April 26, 2024. (Yonhap)
For that framework, observers said that South Korea can be an optimal partner given its technological edge, manufacturing capability, high level of interoperability with U.S. military equipment and culture of close-knit cooperation under the alliance.
"Logistically, distance and interoperability are important considerations, and South Korea checks both those boxes," Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Center for International Studies, told Yonhap News Agency via email.
"It is close to potential conflict areas, hosts U.S. bases, and operates with equipment that is identical to or similar to that of U.S. forces. Thus, even if the United States were not able to conduct combat operations from South Korea, the ROK might nevertheless serve as a critically important logistical base," he added.
ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.
During a forum last month, Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology, highlighted the need and potential for defense logistics cooperation with South Korea, saying collaboration in that area would be a "win-win" effort that helps enhance deterrence.
"The importance of having things forward with our allies on the ground in place rather than having to rely on very long supply chains back to the U.S., especially in a conflict, and building up those stocks, repair parts, repair capability and ammunition stores is both deterrence but also would help overcome fighting a sophisticated enemy who attacked our supply chains and our supply routes," he said.
Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology, speaks during a forum held at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington on June 27, 2024 in this photo captured from the think tank's YouTube account. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The U.S.' pursuit of close collaboration with South Korea and other allies comes against the backdrop of China's continued territorial claims in the South China Sea and its tensions with Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy claimed by Beijing.
Despite America's still potent military presence in the Indo-Pacific, questions have lingered over whether it can effectively conduct and sustain its combat operations should a conflict flare up in an area closer to China's shores.
In the midst of such questions, the Pentagon announced the regional sustainment framework, stressing its vision to establish a "globally connected, resilient, defense ecosystem through collaborative regional sustainment strategies."
Intrinsic to the framework is deeper cooperation with regional allies, partners and industry stakeholders, including South Korea and Japan, in the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) arena, observers pointed out.
"Traditional methods that depend on retrograding materiel for repair and maintenance are no longer viable," the foreword of the framework document read.
"To better meet the challenge and needs of our warfighters, we must establish distributed maintenance and repair capabilities closer to the point of need, thereby posturing our theaters of operation to capitalize on allies and partners' capabilities," it added.
To deepen cooperation in defense supply chains, Seoul and Washington signed the Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) in November to enable both countries to acquire the industrial resources they need to quickly meet defense requirements.
The arrangement reflected a convergence of the two sides' interests at a time when Seoul needs to ensure its defense readiness to counter evolving North Korean threats, while Washington seeks to reinforce its network of regional alliances amid heightened global security uncertainties.
The SOSA signing came after President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to strengthen partnerships in defense supply chains during their bilateral summit in Seoul in May 2022.
William LaPlante, U.S. under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, signs the Security of Supply Arrangement between South Korea and the United States, at his office, in this undated photo provided by Seoul's Defense Acquisition Program Administration on Nov. 17, 2023. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
South Korea and the U.S. have also been pushing to sign a Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement to reduce trade barriers and boost bilateral exchanges. Seoul has been eyeing the conclusion of the negotiations on the RDP agreement before the U.S. presidential election in November.
In a notice on the Federal Register, the Pentagon said the purpose of an RDP Agreement is to promote rationalization, standardization, interchangeability and interoperability of conventional defense equipment with allies -- a point that raised the prospects of deeper cooperation in logistics areas.
But the allies' efforts for institutionalized cooperation were not without a setback.
Talks over the RDP agreement have faced an unexpected hurdle as U.S. lawmakers called for a review to ensure that such a pact will not negatively affect America's manufacturing and its workers.
"It may take a while for the U.S. to utilize Korean defense industry more fully, especially given U.S. concerns for U.S. jobs," Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., told Yonhap News Agency via email.
"And Korea has for a very long time purchased US products like the F-35, so the relationship is mutual. But I think both the U.S. and the ROK will want to make sure that the relationship remains mutual."
Among areas for cooperation, U.S. officials have expressed particular interest in the potential for collaboration in the shipbuilding sector.
This photo provided by Hanwha Group shows a panoramic view of Philly Shipyard Inc. in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
Adding to that potential, Hanwha Group has recently invested US$100 million in Philly Shipyard Inc. to acquire a 100 percent stake in the key U.S. shipbuilder, marking the first entry of a South Korean company into the U.S. shipbuilding industry.
U.S. Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro welcomed Hanwha's acquisition of the shipbuilder as a "game-changing" milestone, as he has stressed the need to strengthen America's shipbuilding capabilities amid its intensifying competition with China.
"In fact, I think you are already seeing this (cooperation) with shipbuilding," Bennett said. "Hanwha purchased the Philadelphia Naval shipyard, and both Hanwha and Hyundai are apparently making contracts with the U.S. Navy to provide ship repairs and upgrades in Korean shipyards -- and they will likely do new U.S. Navy shipbuilding in Korean shipyards eventually."
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 6, 2024
5. Speaking Out | North Korea Sent Military Engineers for Ukraine War
Watch out for those burly north Korean soldiers. I have yet to see one.
Excerpt:
It is speculated that North Korean forces may take part in the Ukraine War under this provision. In fact, however, North Korea has already sent troops to Russia. And the dispatch has paved the way for Putin to visit Pyongyang, according to information I have recently received. North Korea sent some 1,000 military engineers to Russia in May. Moreover, it is selecting burly soldiers in a bid to boost the number to 10,000, my informants said.
Speaking Out | North Korea Sent Military Engineers for Ukraine War
Russia and North Korea reached an agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership but not all is going smoothly as both sides fail to fulfill their promises.
japan-forward.com · by Tsutomu Nishioka · July 5, 2024
On June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. He was there to hold a summit meeting with Chairman Kim Jong Un.
The two leaders concluded the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which included a provision that "if either party is in a state of war after receiving an armed invasion […], the other party shall provide military and other aid by all means it has without delay."
It is speculated that North Korean forces may take part in the Ukraine War under this provision. In fact, however, North Korea has already sent troops to Russia. And the dispatch has paved the way for Putin to visit Pyongyang, according to information I have recently received. North Korea sent some 1,000 military engineers to Russia in May. Moreover, it is selecting burly soldiers in a bid to boost the number to 10,000, my informants said.
Russia Continues to Ask for Troops
Putin failed to realize his promise made in January to visit North Korea. After winning a Russian presidential election for the fifth time in March, he visited China in May. At that time he traveled to Harbin, close to North Korea, but did not stop in Pyongyang. Although the North Koreans strongly urged him to visit at the time, his visit did not become a reality. That was partly due to Chinese opposition, I was told.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur Oblast of the Far East Region, Russia, September 13, 2023. (KCNA via Reuters)
A big problem has recently disrupted the relationship between North Korea and Russia. The Russians have been angry that many of the weapons provided by North Korea were old and defective.
North Korea has provided Russia with millions of artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles since the second half of 2023. Those have gone to support Russian forces in its war in Ukraine. However, those shells had a misfire rate of more than 50%. That led some Russian soldiers to be injured when the shells exploded in the gun barrels.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a meeting in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024. (©Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via Reuters)
Old Weapons, Not New Ones
North Korea provided Russia with old weapons produced before 2010. In that year, North Korea introduced computerized numerical control lathes to improve the quality of weapons. Shells and ammunition produced earlier were like garbage, and that is what was provided to Russia. North Korea sent old weapons, fearing that the country would be in trouble in an emergency if its arsenals were empty.
Russian forces were increasingly frustrated with North Korean weapons and disposed of them. One of the reasons for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was that he had bought defective weapons during his visit to North Korea last July, I was told. North Korea entertained Shoigu even with "pleasure girls" at that time, according to some reports.
Moscow has been requesting North Korea to send troops to Russia since Shoigu’s visit. An acknowledgment in Putin’s message conveyed by Shoigu to Pyongyang that Soviet Air Force pilots participated in the Korean War was meant to press North Korea to send troops in return.
A still image from video, released by Russia's Defence Ministry, shows what it said to be a missile ship of Russia's Pacific Fleet in the waters of the Sea of Japan. Video released March 28, 2023. (Russian Defense Ministry/Handout via Reuters)
North Korea Yet to Acquire Nuclear Submarine Technology
In 2023, North Korea considered dispatching special forces to Ukraine. However, it gave up the idea after a secret attitude survey found that many members of the special forces might defect during combat, my sources said. North Korea has decided to send military engineers this time for the apparent reason that they are unlikely to defect.
Kim Jong Un has repeatedly negotiated with Russia since 2023 to receive nuclear submarine technology. Moreover, it also sought stealth fighter jets from Russia before a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine. Russia has continued to refuse. It says that the reward is not commensurate with the shells provided by North Korea. Even in response to Kim’s decision to send engineers, Putin would not promise to provide nuclear submarine technology and stealth fighter jets, I was told.
RELATED:
(A version of this article was first published by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Find it in Speaking Out #1157 in Japanese on June 24 and in English on June 27, 2024.)
Author: Tsutomu Nishioka
Professor Nishioka is a senior fellow and a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a visiting professor at Reitaku University. He covers South and North Koreas.
japan-forward.com · by Tsutomu Nishioka · July 5, 2024
6. Russian kids will go to 'excellent' summer camps in North Korea this year as the two countries move close
And they will come with statue polishing skills.
Russian kids will go to 'excellent' summer camps in North Korea this year as the two countries move close
Business Insider · by Joshua Zitser
Children walk through Songdowon International School Children's Camp, where Russian children will be sent this summer.Carl Court/Getty Images
- Russian children will be sent to summer camp in North Korea at the end of July, per RIA Novosti.
- The initiative follows a new strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea.
- The camp includes a statue of North Korea's founder, an aquarium, a beach, and an archery range.
A group of Russian school children will go to a summer camp in North Korea at the end of July, Grigory Gurov, the chair of the Movement of the First, told Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti.
According to a RIA Novosti Telegram post, Gurov said a large number of Russian children are expected to attend the camp, where he added the conditions will be "excellent."
Gurov, who leads the youth movement started by Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2022, also said the North Korean summer camp will be the equivalent of Artek.
Artek is a youth center in Crimea that was previously a camp for the Young Pioneers — a Communist organization for children during the Soviet era.
North Korean Young Pioneers rowing at Songdowon in 2011.Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us/Getty Images
Gurov told state-run Russian news agency TASS that Russian children will be sent to Songdowon International Children's Camp, with the trip tentatively set for July 24 to August 2.
According to Songdowon's website, the camp exists to "help North Korea develop relations with foreign countries."
It said that international visitors from Russia, China, Thailand, Mongolia, and Mexico are welcomed each year, with their places subsidized by the state.
Kim Il Sung statue at the Songdowon summer camp in 2008.Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us/Getty Images
The website says the campsite includes a statue of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea, surrounded by children, a full-size water park, an archery range, an aquarium, and a beach.
Songdowon did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment.
Children take part in a cookery lesson at Songdowon International School Children's Camp on August 22, 2018.Carl Court/Getty Images
Gurov also told TASS that Russia would invite North Korean children to attend Russian summer camps, including Artek and others, as part of an exchange program.
He said there are also plans for children to go to other Russia-friendly countries, including Vietnam and China.
Last month, the two countries signed a strategic partnership agreement, which North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un said upgraded their relationship to a "new high of alliance."
The new agreement includes a clause requiring the countries to come to each other's aid should there be aggression against either of them.
It also set guidelines for deepening ties on political, trade and investment, cultural, and humanitarian fields, as well as the security sphere, according to TASS.
Russian tourists of all ages will also be able to vacation on North Korean beaches this summer, according to a RIA Novosti Telegram post from April.
It said that tour programs have been developed lasting between eight and 12 days.
Business Insider · by Joshua Zitser
7. Opinion | As nuclear tensions rise, are US defence plans for South Korea workable?
Koreans should be aware that this kind of talk that undermines extended deterrence is actually directly support Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy to undermine the ROKG and society and drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.
Opinion | As nuclear tensions rise, are US defence plans for South Korea workable?
- Despite progress, any credible deterrence against Pyongyang’s threats is difficult unless and until South Korea becomes a nuclear power
- Sukjoon Yoon
- and
- Yongweon Yu
- Published: 4:30pm, 5 Jul 2024
South China Morning Post · July 5, 2024
Unfortunately, the US has instead offered the nuclear consultative group, established in accordance with the Washington Declaration that came out of a summit between South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and US President Joe Biden on April 26 last year.
The consultative group’s declared goals include “information sharing, consultative mechanisms, and joint planning and execution” but the details of how to coordinate nuclear operations between the US and South Korea remain unclear.
The group needs to become a firmly established and consistent mechanism. Ideally, it should be regulated like Nato’s nuclear sharing arrangements with the US, with framework and guideline agreements, and manuals detailing the standard operating procedures. Instead, the US-South Korea nuclear consultative group, which held its third meeting last month, has devolved from national security adviser-level to deputy defence minister-level.
02:22
US, South Korea agree to increase drills amid growing missile threat from North Korea
US, South Korea agree to increase drills amid growing missile threat from North Korea
Guidelines were drawn up for information-sharing, security systems and consultative procedures during a nuclear crisis, and the operation of a real-time summit-level communication channel. These guidelines are expected to be practised during Ulchi Freedom Shield, the annual combined defence exercises usually held in August.
Unfortunately, the coming US presidential election appears to have limited the meeting outcomes. The primary purposes of establishing the nuclear consultative group and conventional-nuclear integration mechanism now seem diplomatic and political. The US has not really addressed South Korea’s military concerns and significant disagreements were probably papered over in the official statements that came out of the latest meeting.
South Korea is working to establish its own strategic command by the end of this year, and also to align this new command with the US strategic command. Given the many disparities in the command and control structures and functions, integration will be challenging.
Many questions are still unresolved. Which functions of the three Ks – the “Kill Chain” defence system, Korean Air and Missile Defence, and Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation campaign – should be part of South Korea’s strategic command? How should this strategic command contribute to the conventional-nuclear integration mechanism? Should South Korea’s air force upgrade its F-35A fighters to be able to carry B61 tactical nuclear bombs?
02:10
South Korea suspends peace pact with North over trash-filled balloons, raising risk of clashes
South Korea suspends peace pact with North over trash-filled balloons, raising risk of clashes
President Yoon’s emphasis on restoring and reinvigorating relations with the US and Japan has paid dividends. The Camp David summit last September 18 confirmed the institutionalisation of the trilateral security pact between South Korea, the US and Japan. And yet, the threat of war on the Korean peninsula continues to grow.
Most South Koreans see an obvious remedy to the threat of North Korean nukes: a large majority supports the development of an indigenous nuclear deterrent. An alternative is to build our own submarines, as the Australians are doing themselves.
A third possibility is for US tactical nukes to be deployed to South Korea. Unfortunately, all three of these options which South Korean national security planners would like to consider are being assiduously blocked by the US.
Establishing the nuclear consultative group has been something of a Pyrrhic victory for President Yoon and South Korea: how will they be judged in the medium and long term? Despite recent progress, it will be very difficult to maintain a credible deterrence against North Korea’s threats unless and until South Korea becomes a nuclear power.
03:12
'It's the tensest city': South Koreans on border with North fear conflict
'It's the tensest city': South Koreans on border with North fear conflict
The successful integration of South Korea’s conventional weapons systems into the US nuclear umbrella will require complex strategic calculations, including how to plan and execute joint and combined operations on the Korean peninsula as part of the US-led extended nuclear deterrence. Also unresolved is how to achieve effective cooperation between the US strategic command and South Korea’s yet-to-be-created strategic command.
In the end, the US-South Korea nuclear consultative group and conventional-nuclear integration mechanism do offer some protection against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats – by strengthening the US-South Korea alliance and also by changing its scope from a bilateral combined defence posture to a broader regional arrangement in which other countries also participate. But the jury is still out on whether these arrangements will provide a truly workable strategy.
Captain Sukjoon Yoon, a retired South Korean naval officer, is a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs and a member of the advisory committee to South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff
Yongweon Yu is a People’s Power Party representative and a leading member of the Mugunghwa Forum in South Korea’s 22nd National Assembly
South China Morning Post · July 5, 2024
8. China and Russia ready for Pacific Rim drill in US, Japan and South Korea’s wake
China and Russia ready for Pacific Rim drill in US, Japan and South Korea’s wake
- PLA and Russian warships converge near Jeju Island less than a week after a US-led military exercise wrapped up in the region
- Sylvie Zhuang
- in Beijing
-
+ FOLLOWPublished: 8:00pm, 5 Jul 2024
South China Morning Post · July 5, 2024
It is the fourth joint maritime patrol between the two countries in the Pacific Rim.
Russia’s Tass news agency said the Chinese naval group included the destroyer Yinchuan, the frigate Hengshui and the replenishment ship Weishanhu.
Sailors from both countries would hold a ceremony to celebrate their encounters and used radios to exchange greetings at the meeting point near Jeju Island, it said.
03:10
Trade and Taiwan discussed at 3-way summit for Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders
Trade and Taiwan discussed at 3-way summit for Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders
The announcement follows the conclusion on Saturday of a three-day multidomain exercise also near Jeju Island between the United States, Japan and South Korea.
The “Freedom Edge” drill is the first between the two countries to encompass air, maritime, cyber and underwater activities.
Washington is seeking to boost cooperation with its two Asian allies, Seoul and Tokyo, building on a security deal struck at Camp David last year in response to increasing Chinese and North Korean military activity in the Asia-Pacific.
Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said last month that the trilateral drill would “intensify conflicts and undermine the strategic security and interests of other countries” in the region.
China and Russia have also been improving their military ties in recent years as their relations with the US-led West have unravelled.
Earlier this week, China and Russia held a joint drill to combat cross-border terrorism. It came about a month after the Russian and Chinese presidents met in Beijing and agreed to improve cooperation on defence and law enforcement – including expanding joint training and exercises.
In March, China and Russia held a maritime drill with Iran on combating piracy. Last July, they held joint naval and air drills in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea.
South China Morning Post · July 5, 2024
9.
Excerpts:
Coinciding with Putin’s Pyongyang visit, China and South Korea held their first vice-ministerial level diplomatic and security dialogue in Seoul last month, with both sides saying “the top priority is to cool dow
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