Quotes of the Day:
“… disinformation works, and in unexpected ways. The fine line between fact and forgery may be clear in the moment an operator or an intelligence agency commits the act of falsification – for example, in the moment when a fake photograph is inserted into an otherwise genuine document, or when an unwitting influence agent is lured into casting a parliamentary vote under false pretenses, or when a bogus online account invites unwitting users to join a street demonstration, or shares extremist posts. But fronts, forgeries, and fakes don’t stop there. Active measures will shape what others think, decide, and do – and thus change reality itself. When victims read and react to forged secret documents, their reaction is real. When the cards of an influenced parliamentary vote are counted, the result is real. When social media users gather in the streets following a bogus event invitation, the demonstration is real. When readers state using racial epithets online, their views are real. These measures are active, in the sense that operations actively and immediately change views, decisions, and facts on the ground, in the now.” (p.427-428)
- Thomas Rid, Active Measures - The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare
“Fight on tenaciously with uncompromising combative spirit, firm revolutionary principle, indomitable revolutionary spirit, and faith in certain victory against the enemy class."
- A principle of the Ten Great Principles of Monolithic Ideology from north Korea
"An ignorant mind is precisely not a spotless, empty vessel, but one that’s filled with the clutter of irrelevant or misleading life experiences, theories, facts, intuitions, strategies, algorithms, heuristics, metaphors, and hunches that regrettably have the look and feel of useful and accurate knowledge. . .What’s curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious. Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge."
- Justin Kruger and David Dunning, in “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments”
1. U.S. draws line with concessions for North through military drills
2. North Korea Issues Warning Over South Korea-US Joint Military Exercises
3. The Case for a New North Korean Nuclear Deal
4. North Korean envoy calls for cooperation with Russia to counter United States
5. Robert King calls for US attention on North Korean human rights
6. North's spies allegedly on NIS's radar for over 2 decades
7. N.K. envoy demands U.S. troops' withdrawal from S. Korea, denounces military drills as war rehearsal: TASS
8. NSC urges N. Korea not to escalate tensions over allies' defense drills
9. N. Korea unresponsive to S. Korea's hotline calls for 3rd day
10. Report: North Korea, U.N. agencies move forward with COVID-19 vaccine plans
11. North Korea: Heavy flooding destroys homes, farmland
12. Violators of North Korea's quarantine protocols sent to "total control zones"
13. North Korea deploys military units to South Hamgyong Province for post-monsoon recovery operations
14. Kim Jong Boom: Un's Sister Brands US-South Korea Drills A Rehearsal For Nuclear War
15. N. Korea Returns to 'Old Playbook' of Confrontation, Dialogue
16. How North Korean Spies Posed as Defectors to Get Eyes on the South
1. U.S. draws line with concessions for North through military drills
The alliance must hold the line and not blick in the face of north Korean threats.
Also note Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield's comments on humanitarian assistance.
U.S. draws line with concessions for North through military drills
A Lockheed Martin U-2S high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft flies over Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, Tuesday after Seoul and Washington kicked off their four-day crisis management staff training as a prelude to their summertime military exercise next week. [NEWS1]
The Joe Biden administration, while saying it is open to dialogue, is drawing its line in terms of its approach to North Korea in regard to making any concessions or compromising on the Seoul-Washington military drills.
North Korea has ramped up its criticism of the annual summertime joint military exercise over Tuesday and Wednesday, even warning of a "serious security crisis.”
In response, the U.S. State Department repeated its position Wednesday that the joint drills “are purely defensive in nature.”
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a briefing, “We have long maintained the United States harbors no hostile intent towards the DPRK,” referring to the acronym for the North's full name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
South Korea and the United States kicked off Tuesday a four-day crisis management staff training as a prelude to their annual summertime joint exercise scheduled from Aug. 16 to 26.
In turn, Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's sister, said in a statement Tuesday that the Seoul-Washington military drills "are the most vivid expression of the U.S. hostile policy towards the DPRK."
On Wednesday, Kim Yong-chol, director of the North's United Front Department, in charge of inter-Korean affairs, said in another statement that Seoul and Washington will “realize by the minute what a dangerous choice they made and what a serious security crisis they will face because of their wrong choice.”
When asked if Washington views that Pyongyang is escalating tensions with the recent statements, Price said, “We support intra-Korean dialogue, we support intra-Korean engagement, and will continue to work with our ROK partners to that end.”
In a statement to Voice of America (VOA) Thursday, a U.S. Defense Department spokesperson also stressed the U.S. will maintain a strong defense posture to protect South Korea from any threat.
Similarly, John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, in a briefing Tuesday told reporters, “Nothing's changed about our need for readiness on the Korean Peninsula and our desire to work in lock step with our ROK allies on training regimen that improves that readiness and keeps that readiness strong.”
He had been asked about a group of 74 South Korean lawmakers calling for a postponement to the joint drill last week and if there are differences between Seoul and Washington in terms of their military perspective.
Kirby replied that Washington makes such decisions “in lock step with our ROK allies, and that's not going to change.”
On the lawmakers’ joint statement, he added, “that's for the South Korean legislators to speak to.”
The Biden administration after completing its comprehensive review of North Korea policy in April said it will take a "practical and calibrated" approach to Pyongyang and has offered dialogue anytime, anywhere, “without any preconditions.” However, it is also making clear that it will not be making any concessions, and has adhered to its principles enforcing strict sanctions and not offering any incentives just for the sake of talks with Pyongyang.
“Our sanctions programs are designed to constrain the ability of bad actors to take advantage of our financial system or threaten the United States, our allies, and partners and civilians,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters in a briefing Wednesday. “And we know that the North Korean regime is responsible for exploiting its citizens and diverting resources from its own people to bolster its nuclear and ballistic weapons program.”
Thomas-Greenfield, who was on a trip to Thailand after a visit to Japan for the closing ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, did, however, stress that such sanctions do not affect the United States' readiness to offer humanitarian support for the North.
“We’re deeply concerned about the dire humanitarian situation in North Korea, particularly since the regime closed its borders,” said Thomas-Greenfield. “North Korea has implemented an extremely stringent Covid-19 response, including by closing its borders to international flights and shipments.”
North Korea has admitted it is suffering from an intense food shortage amid flooding from heavy rainfall, droughts, heat waves and strict border controls since January 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Thomas-Greenfield said that the U.S. sanctions regime does “not target humanitarian-related trade, assistance or activity.”
She continued, “We have expedited the approval of sanctions exemptions for humanitarian assistance, and we remain committed to doing so. And we’re open to considering additional ways to facilitate humanitarian assistance as quickly as possible.”
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) in its recent report on the outlook from August to November 2021 found that North Korea is expected to face a food shortage of around 860,000 tons this year, equivalent to approximately 2.3 months of food use.
U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, second from right, is pictured in a photo shared on her Twitter account during a meeting to discuss U.S. support for humanitarian support in the region while on a visit to Thailand. [TWITTER]
Inter-Korean communication lines were restored on July 27 after Pyongyang unilaterally severed them 18 months ago. Some analysts pointed out that this could have been in part because of the North’s food shortage problem.
North Korea was unresponsive to calls over revived cross-border communication lines for a third consecutive day as of Thursday, Seoul officials said.
The North Korean side failed to respond to calls over military and joint liaison office hotlines since Tuesday afternoon, after Seoul and Washington began their preliminary training that day.
North Korean Ambassador to Russia Sin Hong-chol in turn said Wednesday that Pyongyang intends to ramp up cooperation with Moscow to counteract the United States.
Sin told Russia’s state-run Tass news agency that this was to “counter the U.S., a common threat, and continuously strengthen and develop at a higher level the strategic and traditional relations between our two countries.”
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
2. North Korea Issues Warning Over South Korea-US Joint Military Exercises
I have to take exception to this implicit assumption here:
Experts predict that the North would not fire intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarine-launched ballistic missiles during or after the exercises. That level of provocation would provide a critical reason for the U.S. not to consider lifting the devastating economic sanctions against the North. However, Seoul said it will keep tabs on the North’s moves.
The north cannot receive sanctions relief simply for not doing something - e.g., simply not conducting an ICBM or SLBM or nuclear test. The regime can only get sanctions relief by taking substantive action toward denuclearization. That could affect the nuclear weapons sanctions. But for the other sanctions of its proliferation, global illicit activities, cyber attacks, and human rights abuses, it must cease all those activities before it can receive sanctions relief. Of course if the international community ever decides to lift sanctions based on the regime halting those activities there must be a snap back provision for when the regime returns to its old habits.
North Korea Issues Warning Over South Korea-US Joint Military Exercises
Shortly after the two Koreas restored communication channels, North Korea lambasted the upcoming exercises and stopped returning the South’s calls.
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Ever since the Korean War ended in a truce, the U.S. and South Korea have conducted joint military exercises to protect against a possible North Korean attack on the South’s territory. Even though the South’s military capability has been dramatically improved since the 1950s, the South Korean government never seriously considered the withdrawal of the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, or conducting military exercises without them.
Since South Korean President Moon Jae-in took office in 2017, however, Moon has tried to conduct scaled-down exercises to entice North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to engage in talks with him and the U.S. administration, with the hope of achieving denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. As a result, Seoul and Washington have conducted considerably smaller exercises in the past few years, but North Korea still recently released statements to criticize the exercises and the presence of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.
In the first inter-Korean summit in 2018, Kim told Moon that he understands that South Korea needs to conduct exercises with the U.S., according to news reports. Seoul and Washington agreed to conduct the exercises on a smaller scale due to negotiations with the North and, later, the COVID-19 pandemic; however, Pyongyang has now started harshly lambasting Seoul and Washington over the exercises.
“The dangerous war exercises pushed ahead with by the US and the south Korean side in defiance of our repeated warnings will surely make themselves face more serious security threat,” said Kim Yo Jong, sister of the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a statement released on Tuesday.
She also criticized the Biden administration by saying that the exercises prove “that ‘diplomatic engagement’ and ‘dialogue with no strings attached’ touted by the present US administration is hypocrisy to cover up its aggressive nature.”
A more surprising point in her statement is that she targeted the U.S. troops in South Korea directly as “the root cause” of tension on the Korean Peninsula. At the end of her statement, she implied that the statement was released “upon authorization,” which indicates that Kim Jong Un shares his sister’s stance.
Since Kim Yo Jong’s statement was published on Tuesday, some lawmakers in the ruling Democratic Party have argued that the government needs to reconsider holding the exercises, as the North recently showed its willingness to talk with the South by restoring the communication channels. However, former generals and lawmakers who had served in the military have strongly suggested that the government proceed with the exercises, saying that national security should come first. Seoul and Washington have repeatedly made clear that the exercises are purely defensive in nature with no hostile intent toward North Korea and have conducted rehearsals on Tuesday as planned.
With Seoul and Washington holding firm on the exercises, North Korea has not responded to hotline calls from the South, even though the two Koreas restored their communication channels two weeks ago. Experts predict that the North will not answer the South’s calls in the next few weeks. The full exercises are slated to open on August 16 and run through August 26.
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Kim Yong Chol, department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party, also released a statement on Wednesday to back up Kim Yo Jong’s statement. He said that “we will make them realize by the minute what a dangerous choice they made and what a serious security crisis they will face because of their wrong choice.”
Most experts say that the government needs to conduct joint military exercises to prepare for possible attack by the North. However, some experts argue that Seoul and Washington need to provide scenarios in which they can consider halting the exercises in return for the North’s moves toward denuclearization.
“The South Korean government is in a dilemma,” Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute think tank in South Korea, told The Diplomat. The Moon administration “requires South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises to counter North Korea’s nuclear capability escalation,” but must also “consider the North’s backlash.”
“In order to resolve the escalation of military tensions on the Korean Peninsula caused by North Korea’s backlash and warnings, South Korea and the U.S. need to declare that if North Korea actually freezes its nuclear programs, it can halt the exercises,” Cheong said. A North Korean nuclear freeze would include measures such as suspending further production of nuclear warheads, suspending the development of nuclear submarines, and accepting inspections of Yongbyon nuclear facilities.
Experts predict that the North would not fire intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarine-launched ballistic missiles during or after the exercises. That level of provocation would provide a critical reason for the U.S. not to consider lifting the devastating economic sanctions against the North. However, Seoul said it will keep tabs on the North’s moves.
3. The Case for a New North Korean Nuclear Deal
Trust? How can the regime be trusted? And I will acknowledge the regime is unlikely ever to trust the US or the international community based on its nature and how it interprets history.
The Case for a New North Korean Nuclear Deal
Mutual distrust has doomed past efforts to settle a deal between the U.S. and North Korea.
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President Joe Biden is planning a full review of U.S. policy toward North Korea. However, unless his team abandons bilateralism and the insistence on “inspections first, negotiations later,” his new approach is unlikely to break the nuclear stalemate with Pyongyang.
The diplomatic impasse continues because the two sides cannot find a way to trust each other.
Negotiating a nuclear deal between North Korea and the United States is challenging since both sides face strong incentives to cheat. When negotiating, Washington hopes to see Pyongyang cooperate by disarming, at which point it will be tempted to make new demands. Pyongyang prefers to reap the benefits of cooperation with Washington, while making sure its deterrent stays in place as insurance. As a result, neither can credibly commit to uphold the terms of any agreement.
Both states take a risk by cooperating as neither could retaliate against the other in case of defection. North Korea pursues nuclear capabilities, because it is unable to deter an attack by conventional means. Denuclearizing will leave it defenseless against the whims of a powerful adversary. On its part, the United States may find it too costly to penalize North Korea if it secretly maintains a functional nuclear arsenal. It follows that these two parties are unlikely to reach an agreement between themselves and even less likely to sustain it over time.
This problem of mutual distrust is made worse by the uncertainty of future intentions. North Korea remains concerned that U.S. promises only hold until its leadership changes, or has a change of heart. Such suspicions grew after witnessing the fate of Muammar Gaddafi, who trusted Washington enough to give up Libya’s nuclear program with tragic consequences. They were confirmed when President Donald Trump unilaterally exited the Iran Deal. This last move solidified Kim Jong Un’s resolve to maintain a nuclear arsenal under any circumstances to hedge for an uncertain future.
Firm pre-conditions make it even more difficult to reach an agreement with North Korea. There are no signs that Kim Jong Un might capitulate to U.S. demands. He will insist on receiving security guarantees before making any meaningful moves toward reducing his nuclear arsenal. In the meantime, North Korea’s nuclear program continues to advance. South Korea’s 2020 Defense White Paper revealed that over the past two years North Korea has significantly expanded its missile capabilities and improved the technology for miniaturization of nuclear warheads. Kim declared his ambition to further expand North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in a speech at the Eight Party Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party just days before Biden’s inauguration earlier this year.
The only hope to restrain North Korea’s nuclear development is through a reversal of American policy. Biden would have to revive multilateral talks, ease sanctions, and commit to concessions to negotiate a mutually acceptable deal.
This approach has been attempted before. The Six Party Talks between China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States broke down in 2009 having achieved very little. At the time, however, the deal was multilateral only in name, with essential negotiations held separately between representatives of the two main adversaries. The remaining parties played witness, but failed in the one essential task that could have made a difference: enhancing the credibility of mutual promises.
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A lot has changed since then.
There are two main reasons why the timing is perfect for crafting a new functional deal.
First, Pyongyang appears more willing to cooperate. The country is in deep economic trouble. Kim’s unprecedented recognition that North Korea has failed to fulfill its latest economic plan speaks of the gravity of the current situation. The coronavirus pandemic has also taken its toll on the country. Kim desperately needs a moment of stability, making him more likely to agree to meaningful concessions as long as they do not threaten the security of his regime.
Second, this time it may be possible to help North Korea trust U.S. security guarantees. Regional powers today are better equipped to assume more active roles in underwriting the deal between Washington and Pyongyang. China and possibly Russia have grown both their interest and capabilities to act as guarantors of an arms control agreement. There is a role for South Korea, albeit different from the course of direct inter-Korean cooperation pursued by the current administration. Seoul can offer its own guarantee, such as a promise to advocate on behalf of Pyongyang before Washington to increase mutual trust and understanding. Japan would be an important part of this effort as well.
Ultimately, the success of a deal will depend on the ability of North Korea and the United States to overcome their mutual distrust. If they use the present opportune moment to set in motion a virtuous circle of trust-building, a solution of the nuclear issue might soon come in sight.
4. North Korean envoy calls for cooperation with Russia to counter United States
I have to give the regime credit. It is trying to shape the global information environment regarding the Korean peninsula for its benefit.
Here we have the nK ambassador to Russia speaking to TASS asking for Russian support.
North Korean envoy calls for cooperation with Russia to counter United States
By The Straits Times1 min
SEOUL (REUTERS) - North Korea intends to strengthen cooperation with Russia to counter the United States, and peace on the Korean peninsula will not be possible until American troops are withdrawn, Pyongyang's ambassador to Russia told Tass news agency.
Ambassador Sin Hong-chol's comments come after senior North Korean leaders warned this week that South Korea and the US would face repercussions for their decision to go ahead with annual joint military drills.
The drills are a "rehearsal for war" and prove the US is responsible for destabilising the situation, he told Tass in an interview published on Wednesday.
"We will also boost cooperation between North Korea and Russia with the view to counter the US, a common threat," Mr Sin told Tass.
Around 28,500 American troops are stationed in South Korea as a legacy of the 1950-1953 Korean War, which left the peninsula in a technical state of war when fighting ended with an armistice rather than a peace agreement.
Washington and Seoul say the joint drills are defensive in nature.
5. Robert King calls for US attention on North Korean human rights
I am reading this book now. All Korea watchers who focus on human rights should read this. We need a human rights up front approach (and we need an Ambassador for north Korean Human Rights)
Robert King calls for US attention on North Korean human rights
By Haley Gordon
It is the job of the United States special envoy for North Korean human rights to ensure that the U.S.'s North Korea policy considers human rights concerns. This role is arguably more important now than ever, in light of reports that the North is currently facing a humanitarian crisis due to COVID-19-related shortages and restrictions.
And yet, the position has remained vacant since January 2017, despite the fact that it is mandated by U.S. legislation. Donald Trump failed to appoint a new special envoy during the four years of his presidency, and six months into his term, President Joe Biden also has yet to fill the role.
Given that human rights are expected to be on the agenda for Biden's North Korea policy, former Ambassador Robert R. King's recent book, "Patterns of Impunity: Human Rights in North Korea and the Role of the U.S. Special Envoy" (Stanford, CA: Shorenstein APARC, 2021), is a particularly timely release.
This is the cover of "Patterns of Impunity: Human Rights in North Korea and the Role of the U.S. Special Envoy" written by former Ambassador Robert R. King. King was the last official to serve as special envoy from November 2009 to January 2017, and the book documents his experiences in the role, covering an impressive range of North Korea's human rights abuses through the lens of King's own involvement in advocating for progress on them.
The book's overview of such issues will make it accessible to readers less familiar with North Korea's human rights problems, while King's seasoned perspective will prove invaluable to experts and longtime North Korea watchers.
Insights derived from King's diplomatic experience make "Patterns of Impunity" an important contribution to the literature on North Korean human rights, which often centers on the horrors taking place inside the country.
While not shying away from discussing these abuses, King instead focuses on how policy can be harnessed to address them. King's work with key U.S., North Korean, and international officials has given him a realistic perspective on difficult questions and hot-button issues.
For example, King emphasizes the U.S.'s concerted efforts to separate political and security issues from humanitarian ones, so that aid does not become a "bargaining chip" in denuclearization talks.
And yet, he reminds us that this is often easier said than done: Dealing with North Korea "involves obstacles that make it very difficult to separate humanitarian assistance from foreign policy," in part because "North Koreans always link the two in their own minds."
King is similarly pragmatic when discussing a topic that has become highly controversial in the past year thanks to South Korea's new so-called "anti-leaflet law."
Emphasizing the importance of information flows into the North, King argues that balloons carrying leaflets, money, and USBs across the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) are "not the most efficient way of getting information into closed societies like North Korea."
This claim is in part derived from King's own expertise on information flows into the communist countries of Central Europe during the Cold War, and one of the strong points of "Patterns of Impunity" is a chapter in which he weaves insights from this era into an analysis of North Korea's present.
King acknowledges that the changing media landscape has seen a rise in importance of DVDs and USBs, in particular those bringing South Korean cultural content. However, he argues convincingly for the continued use of radio transmissions into North Korea via broadcasters such as Radio Free Asia.
Ultimately, "Patterns of Impunity" is a reminder that the North's human rights abuses extend beyond the borders of the hermit kingdom. They affect families separated by the Korean War that have yet to be reunited, Japanese individuals who have been abducted by the North Korean regime, foreign nationals who have been detained and abused in the North, and North Korean defectors seeking new lives in China and beyond.
King is realistic about how painstakingly difficult it is to achieve progress on these issues ― but he illustrates that pressing for change can yield results. He points to the improvement of rights of the disabled in North Korea as one victory.
Another came in the wake of the high-profile 2014 Commission of Inquiry report on the country's human rights situation: North Korean officials showed increased willingness to engage with U.N. human rights mechanisms after the report's release, although the regime publicly denounced its findings as fiction.
Yet such progress slowed in recent years, when the Trump administration pursued an ultimately fruitless strategy of prioritizing security issues at the expense of human rights. U.S. leadership on North Korean human rights, King shows, matters. "Patterns of Impunity" is a testament to the importance of the special envoy in enabling that leadership.
Haley Gordon (hmgordon@stanford.edu) is a researcher at Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.
6. North's spies allegedly on NIS's radar for over 2 decades
Not a good look for the NIS.
This is the work of north Korea's 225th Bureau which is responsible for training agents to infiltrate the ROK and establish underground political parties focused on fomenting unrest and revolution. Just saying.
Wednesday
August 11, 2021
North's spies allegedly on NIS's radar for over 2 decades
The four people in Cheongju, North Chungcheong, currently under formal investigation by the National Intelligence Service (NIS) for allegedly working for North Korea, have been on the spy agency's radar for 21 years, raising questions on why it took so long to bring the group into custody.
Furthermore, it was revealed, from a source with knowledge of the investigation on the condition of anonymity, that the intelligence service tracked individuals in the group, called the North Chungcheong Comrades’ Association, meeting North Korean Cultural Exchange Bureau agents abroad on multiple occasions and bringing the funds they received back to the South for four years.
But the NIS launched a full investigation only this year, taking into custody three of the four individuals after their warrants were approved by the Cheongju District Court on Aug. 2.
The individuals, two men and two women, have been identified only as 57-year-old construction worker Park, 50-year-old Yoon, 50-year-old Park and 47-year-old Son. Son is the only member of the group who remains under investigation without detention.
The NIS has kept tabs on the four since 2000, shortly after they joined the New Morning Labor Working Youth Association which was formed in October 1998.
Park and the other three individuals held a press conference in September 2000 with the National Solidarity Movement for the Abolition of the National Security Law and the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU). At the press conference, he claimed the NIS fabricated espionage cases against workers in Cheongju.
At the time, the NIS countered, saying it was engaged in normal internal investigation activities but never fabricated espionage operations to ensnare anyone. In the end, the case was closed without anyone being prosecuted.
The suspects, however, denied the allegations, calling the spy agency’s long-term investigation a form of illegal surveillance. Son, the only suspect who remains under investigation without physical detention, told the JoongAng Ilbo in an interview, “The current case is the result of the NIS conducting illegal surveillance for more than 20 years.” He added, “All evidence has been fabricated or exaggerated.”
Legal experts have suggested that the launch of a formal NIS investigation was delayed due to political external pressure. While the sensitive nature of public security investigations and espionage cases can lead to extended periods of surveillance where formal charges are delayed to track contacts and associates of suspected spies, it is unprecedented for the intelligence service to conduct surveillance for two decades before beginning a formal investigation.
Questions also remain regarding the fact that the spy agency did not immediately commence a formal investigation after securing evidence of the individuals meeting North Korean agents, including photos of them meeting people from the North’s Cultural Exchange in hotels, restaurants, even Starbucks cafes in China and Cambodia and sharing taxi rides between 2017 and 2018.
Responding to questions, an NIS official said, “We cannot confirm the details of the ongoing investigation.”
BY MICHAEL LEE, KIM MIN-JOONG [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
7. N.K. envoy demands U.S. troops' withdrawal from S. Korea, denounces military drills as war rehearsal: TASS
I wonder now that we are hearing senior north Korean talk about US troop withdrawal if this is going to become a new demand in negotiation.
The regime could be setting the conditions for future negotiations. And it is going to try to get something for nothing. It is preparing the information environment so that it can make a concession at the negotiation table. It will concede to the US troop presence in Korea in reitner for some form of sanctions relief. This is a classic north Korean negotiating strategy - to get something for nothing. It will probably also negotiate to give up the Hwasong 16 which may only be a mock-up (for parade use and psychological operations to support negotiations) and never in actual development. It will be counting on our fears of an ICBM and that we will be willing to remove that "threat" in return for some form of sanctions relief. But of course it has no intention of giving up its already developed and tested ICBM(s).
N.K. envoy demands U.S. troops' withdrawal from S. Korea, denounces military drills as war rehearsal: TASS | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Aug. 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's top envoy in Russia has called for the U.S. troops' withdrawal from South Korea and called the allies' joint military exercise a "war rehearsal," a Russian news agency said Thursday.
North Korean Ambassador to Moscow Sin Hong-chol made the demand in an interview with Russia's TASS as Pyongyang recently ramped up criticism of South Korea for going ahead with its summertime combined military exercise with the U.S.
"The U.S. should primarily pull out its aggressive troops and military hardware deployed in South Korea to achieve peace on the Korean Peninsula," he said in the interview.
Sin added that the main reason for the "periodical exacerbation of the situation" on the peninsula will never disappear as long as U.S. troops are based in Seoul.
He stressed that the North will treat the U.S. on the principle of "force for force" and "good for good," saying that it is necessary for Pyongyang to strengthen forces that can deter foreign threats.
The envoy also said Washington's decision to carry out its joint military exercise with South Korea shows its unwillingness to use diplomacy to address issues on the peninsula.
He then called the joint drills "a war rehearsal" and training for "a preventive strike" against the North irrespective of their scale and form.
Seoul and Washington on Tuesday kicked off a preliminary four-day training session ahead of next week's main summertime drills despite the North's earlier warning that the maneuvers will cast a cloud over inter-Korean relations.
North Korea slammed South Korea and the U.S. over the exercise, vowing to strengthen its preemptive strike capability and saying that such drills will risk a serious security crisis for the allies every minute.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
8. NSC urges N. Korea not to escalate tensions over allies' defense drills
Somehow I do not think Kim will be moved by this plea. Though it is possible we may not see a provocation until later in the fall (especially as internal conditions in the north worsen after a likely poor harvest).
NSC urges N. Korea not to escalate tensions over allies' defense drills | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Aug. 12 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's top national security officials stressed Thursday that North Korea should refrain from taking actions to escalate tensions on the peninsula, according to Cheong Wa Dae.
They analyzed North Korea's move in connection with the upcoming joint military exercise with the United States and checked plans for response under various scenarios during a weekly meeting of the standing committee of the National Security Council (NSC).
Its members reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability in Korea.
Senior North Korean officials have publicly warned of a "serious" security crisis, criticizing the allies' plan to kick off annual drills next week as scheduled.
In apparent protest, Pyongyang has been unresponsive to Seoul's daily hotline calls that were restored last month.
In the NSC session, presided over by Suh Hoon, director of national security at the presidential office, attendees "closely analyzed North Korea's move linked with the South Korea-U.S. combined training as well as South-North Korea, North Korea-U.S. and North Korea-China relations," Cheong Wa Dae said.
They also checked the response posture of South Korea's related authorities and agreed on the need for cooperation with the other countries concerned for the early resumption of dialogue with North Korea, it added.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(MORE)
9. N. Korea unresponsive to S. Korea's hotline calls for 3rd day
The duty officer on the north side of the JSA is playing hard to get.
Seriously, we need to assess all of north Korea's actions in terms of how it is trying to shape the information environment and control the narrative(s).
N. Korea unresponsive to S. Korea's hotline calls for 3rd day | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Aug. 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea did not answer South Korea's phone calls via cross-border communication lines for the third straight day Thursday, officials said, in apparent protest against the summertime military exercise between the South and the United States.
The morning calls via the inter-Korean liaison office and military communication channels in the eastern and western border regions went unanswered earlier in the day, according to the officials.
North Korea began to shun picking up regular calls late Tuesday as South Korea and the U.S. kicked off a four-day preliminary training in the runup to the main combined exercise next week despite the North's warning it will cloud inter-Korean relations.
Since the inter-Korean hotlines were restored late last month following a yearlong severance, calls were made once in the morning and again in the afternoon on a daily basis.
On Wednesday, Kim Yong-chol, a senior North Korean official, issued a statement saying the North will make the South "realize by the minute what a dangerous choice they made and what a serious security crisis they will face because of their wrong choice."
"We are closely monitoring the North's moves under close coordination of South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities, and maintaining a firm readiness posture," a military officer said, adding that no unusual activities have been detected as of now.
Whether and how to conduct the allies' annual exercise drew keen attention, particularly after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong warned early this month the drills would dampen the conciliatory mood created in the wake of the restoration of the communication lines.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
10. Report: North Korea, U.N. agencies move forward with COVID-19 vaccine plans
We will see what the regime is willing to accept and allow.
Report: North Korea, U.N. agencies move forward with COVID-19 vaccine plans
By Elizabeth Shim
Aug. 11 (UPI) -- North Korea is expected to receive assistance from the United Nations Children's Fund for COVID-19 vaccine distribution, according to a recent press report.
UNICEF told Radio Free Asia's Korean service that the agency is supplying advice to Pyongyang. COVID-19 vaccines for North Korea have been delayed, despite an agreement with the World Health Organization.
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"UNICEF is providing technical support to the Ministry of Public Health to advise on cold chain and vaccine logistics," a UNICEF spokesperson said.
The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, co-leader of the COVAX Facility with the WHO, confirmed that progress is being made on North Korea vaccines.
"Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and COVAX are continuing the dialogue with the Ministry of Public Health to operationalize available support," a spokesperson for the organization said, according to RFA.
North Korea agreed earlier this year to receive a donation of about 1.7 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines, but restrictions on movement in the country and lack of cooperation from the government have been cited as obstacles.
U.N. agencies may have requested North Korea allow in international relief workers to monitor vaccination sites and to help build a cold chain, or temperature-controlled supply chain, in the country. Pyongyang has banned all incoming foreign visitors and workers since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
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North Korea's cold chain capabilities have come under question. The country's infrastructure may not be sufficient to transport either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines across long distances, according to South Korean newspaper Kyunghyang Shinmun on Wednesday.
Some experts say Pyongyang is well prepared, however.
Nagi Shafik, former project manager for the WHO's Pyongyang office and other analysts said in a commentary published to 38 North on Thursday that North Korea's cold chain infrastructure is "capable of supporting the country-wide deployment of vaccines that require standard refrigeration."
"UNICEF, given its familiarity with North Korea's cold chain infrastructure, could quickly procure and install enough ultra-cold temperature freezers to store a limited quantity of vaccines," the analysts said.
11. North Korea: Heavy flooding destroys homes, farmland
The Korea people in the north continue to suffer horrendously. There is no hope for a good harvest this fall I fear.
North Korea: Heavy flooding destroys homes, farmland | DW | 12.08.2021
Heavy rain and flooding in provinces along North Korea's east coat have inundated wide swathes of farmland as the impoverished country organizes relief efforts.
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
North Korea's premier traveled to flood-stricken areas after new rounds of heavy rain struck towns along the east coast, state media reported on Thursday.
Kim Tok Hun, premier of North Korea's Cabinet, visited parts of South Hamgyong province and spoke to troops and other emergency responders who had mobilized to help repair flood damage.
Hun said he planned on "learning about the living conditions of the flood victims" and stressed the need for provincial officials to organize flood relief, KCNA news agency reported.
Heavy flooding destroys farmland
Footage from Pyongyang's state-run KCTV broadcast on Sunday showed homes flooded up to their roofs, as well as what appeared to be damaged bridges.
The report said that more than a thousand homes were damaged and about 5,000 people were evacuated. "Hundreds of hectares of farmland" were also reported submerged or lost in the province as river levees collapsed.
The impact of natural disasters on North Korea is made worse by weak infrastructure and widespread poverty, while deforestation has left it vulnerable to flooding.
International sanctions over the North Korean regime's nuclear weapons program have isolated the country.
North suffered from a nationwide famine in the 1990s that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Rain continues
As North Korea's premier toured South Hamgyong, as much as 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of new rain fell in some areas of North Hamgyong province on Wednesday, state broadcaster KRT reported.
"Downpours have already hit these regions, so we need to prepare thorough countermeasures," a KRT presenter said.
The presenter called for "measures" for protects homes, other buildings and infrastructure "to prevent damage from landslides caused by floods."
kmm/wmr (Reuters, AFP)
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
12. Violators of North Korea's quarantine protocols sent to "total control zones"
Note the impact on party officials and MSS officials.
North Korea has been strictly applying the law on “eradicating reactionary thought and culture” since its enactment last year. The law appears aimed at boosting regime solidarity as popular disaffection accelerates due to protracted international sanctions and the closure of the border due to COVID-19.
“If you watch a South Korean TV program, the authorities consider both you and your relatives ‘ideological problems,’” said the source. “If the crime is more serious, the accused is subject to a public trial. And if a death sentence is handed down, the party committees to which the criminal or his guardians belong and even the Ministry of State Security officials in charge of the matter, are subject to party and administrative inquiries.”
Violators of North Korea's quarantine protocols sent to "total control zones" - Daily NK
Many violators of the country's anti-reactionary thought law, meanwhile, are being detained in "revolutionary zones"
In a telephone conversation with Daily NK on Monday, a source in North Korea said violations of quarantine rules might seem trivial, “but in truth, they aren’t.” He said the North Korean government treats such violations as “very bad acts violating, opposing, or failing to adhere to [COVID-19 disease control measures], which are considered to be of grave national importance.”
North Korea sends people who fail to comply with emergency quarantine regulations to political prison camps on charges of harming the national economy and violating party policy. North Korea is also building new camps as current camps reach their holding capacity, as well as expanding existing facilities.
In fact, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has taken special interest in the quarantine issue, taking direct charge of the matter. During a June 29 meeting of the Central Committee’s politburo, Kim criticized leading cadres for creating a “grave incident” putting the safety of the state and people at risk due to lapses in quarantine efforts.
That is to say, the government considers noncompliance with quarantine regulations to be no mere violation of the law, but rather a political matter involving intentional violations of party policy. To put this another way, said the source, people who violate quarantine regulations are labeled “counterrevolutionary elements” who are directly challenging party policy.
“[The authorities] are taking the state’s declaration of the highest emergency quarantine level very seriously as they think of it as a state of semi-war,” the source explained. “Because of this, if you go into a political prison camp for violating quarantine rules, you’ll never come out.
Explanatory materials for the anti-reactionary thought law. / Image: Daily NK
“Short of a special order [like an amnesty] or another measure, you won’t leave the camps even as a corpse,” he continued, adding, “Literally, there is no limit to your sentence.”
Accordingly, North Korea is believed to be confining violators of quarantine rules in “total control zones.” If you enter one of these camps of lifetime imprisonment, you can never rejoin society. Inmates are subjected to brutal forced labor in mines and lumber camps before ultimately dying.
Meanwhile, in the case of violators of the recently implemented law to eradicate “reactionary thought and culture,” some are being detained in “revolutionary zones” from which release is possible. The source pointed out that the number of prisoners in these zones has recently skyrocketed.
“About 50% of the new inmates at the camps are people who have seen or distributed foreign films and dramas, agitators, people who said the wrong thing, or ideological apostates,” said the source. “Another 35% are violators of quarantine rules, and another 15% have violated existing laws.”
The source said that in the past, people who watched South Korean films or TV programs or read South Korean publications were sent to labor or reeducation camps, “but the most severe punishments such as life imprisonment or execution were rare.” The situation has “flipped 180 degrees,” however, and “so many more people are now locked up in political prison camps for watching South Korean films or TV programs.”
North Korea has been strictly applying the law on “eradicating reactionary thought and culture” since its enactment last year. The law appears aimed at boosting regime solidarity as popular disaffection accelerates due to protracted international sanctions and the closure of the border due to COVID-19.
“If you watch a South Korean TV program, the authorities consider both you and your relatives ‘ideological problems,’” said the source. “If the crime is more serious, the accused is subject to a public trial. And if a death sentence is handed down, the party committees to which the criminal or his guardians belong and even the Ministry of State Security officials in charge of the matter, are subject to party and administrative inquiries.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
13. North Korea deploys military units to South Hamgyong Province for post-monsoon recovery operations
No surprise. The military remains one of the best functioning institutions in the north. And it is of course all relative.
But there is a lot ot parse here:
“If locals learn of the pathetic food situation soldiers face, it would damage the image of the People’s Army, and there are battles of pride and competition between rear-area troops, so the troops that get deployed are receiving much better food,” said the source. “Soldiers used to eating food without even a drop of oil are now eating soup and side dishes full of oil, which they enjoy very much.”
Meanwhile, Pyongyang is reportedly providing 50% of the supplies needed for recovery efforts, while South Hamgyong Province is providing the remaining 50%. However, with the provincial government unable to provide all the supplies on its own, it is tasking local party, government and military organizations as well as local residents with gathering supplies.
“The Central Committee even ordered [local authorities] not to place additional burdens on residents, but in fact, they are telling army units, inminban [people’s units] and workplaces to provide supplies, either on their own or by getting them from someone else,” said the source. “They’ve split up [sourcing] the nails, staple iron, wood, cement, sand, shovels and gloves based on a personal contract system.”
North Korea deploys military units to South Hamgyong Province for post-monsoon recovery operations - Daily NK
Some of the units mobilized for the effort are living in tents erected onsite, engaging in all-night recovery operations
Faced with heavy damage in South Hamgyong Province in the wake of torrential rains, North Korean authorities have reportedly deployed all army, navy and air force engineering units based in the province to recovery operations.
A source in South Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Tuesday that authorities have deployed to recovery efforts all of the engineering units based on the province, including “those of the Army’s 108th Training Camp and Seventh Corps, the Navy’s East Sea Command and its subordinate flotillas and the Air Force’s 2nd Division command and Toksan Airbase.”
About 3,000 personnel, including ordinary soldiers, are reportedly engaged in recovery operations at flooded or damaged homes, roads, railways, bridges and agricultural fields.
“The units that took part in recovery efforts last year have once again gone to the areas they handled last year,” said the source. He said with soldiers repeating what they did last year in the same place at roughly the same time, some are complaining that their efforts are “pointless” because the nation “fails to take proper anti-erosion measures,” that once again they are in for a “hard time” like last year, and that they must not engage in mere “whitewashing.”
The chiefs of staff of the 108th Training Camp, East Sea Command and Air Force 2nd Division have assembled at the site of operations. Unlike last year, when it was the staff officers or deputy heads of the operations divisions who assumed field command, higher ranked commanders are supervising efforts this year. This indicates how seriously North Korea regards the recovery efforts.
Some of the units mobilized for the effort are living in tents erected onsite, engaging in all-night recovery operations. Other units, however, come to the site in the morning and leave in the evening, reportedly bringing their own mobile meal trucks.
The source said soldiers used to eating soggy noodles welcome the rice mixed with corn they have been eating since their deployment to recovery operations. In fact, he said some of the soldiers “even express a wish that operations [outside their bases] could continue.”
Rodong Sinmun reported on Sept. 6, 2020, that Kim Jong Un had visited storm-ravaged areas of South Hamgyong Province. / Image: Rodong Sinmun
“If locals learn of the pathetic food situation soldiers face, it would damage the image of the People’s Army, and there are battles of pride and competition between rear-area troops, so the troops that get deployed are receiving much better food,” said the source. “Soldiers used to eating food without even a drop of oil are now eating soup and side dishes full of oil, which they enjoy very much.”
Meanwhile, Pyongyang is reportedly providing 50% of the supplies needed for recovery efforts, while South Hamgyong Province is providing the remaining 50%. However, with the provincial government unable to provide all the supplies on its own, it is tasking local party, government and military organizations as well as local residents with gathering supplies.
“The Central Committee even ordered [local authorities] not to place additional burdens on residents, but in fact, they are telling army units, inminban [people’s units] and workplaces to provide supplies, either on their own or by getting them from someone else,” said the source. “They’ve split up [sourcing] the nails, staple iron, wood, cement, sand, shovels and gloves based on a personal contract system.”
“Only those directly harmed in the rains have been exempted, and all provincial party officials are participating [in the recovery efforts]. They have to give money if they have nothing to give, or provide alternative materials with approval from their organization,” said the source. “It’s an additional financial burden, but the leadership is saying you’re all provincial residents and all one family and that you should support one another. So locals can’t openly call it an additional burden.”
The source explained that relief supplies are arriving from Pyongyang. In fact, in a front page article on Monday, Rodong Sinmun reported that trains laden with cement for recovery efforts were arriving in the affected areas. It ran a related photo as well.
On Tuesday, the paper reported that the provincial branch of the ruling party was making organizational efforts for reconstruction, writing that the South Hamgyong Provincial Party Military Commission convened at the disaster site in Sinhung County on Aug. 5 and Aug. 8 to discuss issues related to reconstruction.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) also reported Tuesday that “[s]tate emergency measures are taken to eradicate the aftermath of flood and heavy rain as soon as possible in the DPRK,” adding that the “central team for guiding the project for recovery from flood damage is staffed by officials of the Cabinet, ministries and national institutions.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
14.Kim Jong Boom: Un's Sister Brands US-South Korea Drills A Rehearsal For Nuclear War
I could not resist sending this one. I do not think Zenger news can be a very credible source about north Korean news if it is calling Kim Jong-un "Un". And of court Kim Yo-jong is called "Jong" in this article.
I remember Greta Van Sustern calling Kim Jong Il - Kim Jong "2' of the second.
Sometimes when I try to correct someone about Korean name structure they respond with well I am just trying to insult Kim Jong-un and call him by his "last name." But it is not his ";ast name!"
Kim Jong Boom: Un's Sister Brands US-South Korea Drills A Rehearsal For Nuclear War - Zenger News
SEOUL, South Korea — The joint drills between the United States and South Korea are nothing but a “rehearsal” of nuclear war, said Kim Yo Jong, the deputy department director of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee.
This week Seoul and Washington are supposed to conduct preparations for the military exercises jointly. The exercises will take place from Aug. 16-26 without the presence of any fundamental maneuvers.
“Whatever the scale and mode, the joint military exercises are of aggressive nature as they are a war rehearsal and preliminary nuclear war exercise for further rounding of the preparations for putting into practice the operational plan with the preemptive strike at us as the gist,” said Jong.
“South Korea urged North Korea to have a more ‘flexible attitude’ just hours after Kim Jong Un’s sister slammed Seoul and Washington for their joint military exercises on Tuesday,” tweeted The Korea Society, an American nonprofit organization dedicated to the promotion of greater awareness, understanding, and cooperation between the people of the U.S. and Korea.
The North Korean leader’s sister went on, Pyongyang will accelerate the strengthening of its defense capacities in response.
“We will put more spur to further increasing the deterrent of absolute capacity to cope with the ever-growing military threats from the U.S., i.e., the national defense capabilities and powerful preemptive strike for rapidly countering any military actions against us,” said Jong.
“North Korea will counter the U.S. on the principle of power for power and goodwill for goodwill.”
She said that Washington must withdraw its troops from South Korea to set peace on the entire Korean peninsula.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea slammed South Korea on Aug. 11 for pushing ahead with planned military drills with the United States. It warned of a “serious security crisis.”
Kim made the remarks one day after Kim Yo Jong, vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers Party Korea, issued a similar warning: “the choice of hope or despair is totally up to the South Korean authorities.”
He said that the military exercises slated by South Korea with the United States would be an unfavorable prelude further because of the future of inter-Korean relations.
“But the South Korean authorities have now revealed that peace and trust much touted by them whenever an opportunity presented itself were just a wordplay,” said Kim Yong Chol. He is in charge of South Korean affairs in the country.
“South Korea must be made to clearly understand how dearly they have to pay for answering our good faith with hostile acts after letting go of the opportunity for improved inter-Korean relations.”
Despite strong opposition from Pyongyang, South Korea and the United States started their four-day preliminary drills on Aug. 10. The joint military exercises are expected to run through next week from Aug. 16 to 26.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and South Korean leaders agreed to resume the inter-Korean hotlines two weeks ago, cut off for more than a year. The North has since demanded that the South suspend drills to accelerate a thaw in the strained inter-Korean relations.
(With inputs from ANI)
Edited by Saptak Datta and Ritaban Misra
15. N. Korea Returns to 'Old Playbook' of Confrontation, Dialogue
My comments below.
N. Korea Returns to 'Old Playbook' of Confrontation, Dialogue
By William Gallo
August 11, 2021 03:49 AM
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - In June, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his country to prepare for both “dialogue and confrontation” with the United States. It didn’t take long for the U.S. and its ally South Korea to experience both sides of that directive.
Two weeks ago, North Korea hinted it was open to more interaction with the outside world. But this week it lashed out at Seoul and Washington for conducting annual joint military exercises — a lightning-quick about-face, even by the volatile standards of North Korea.
On Wednesday, Kim Yong Chol, a senior North Korean general and politician, warned Washington and Seoul will face a “serious security crisis” because of their “wrong choice” in holding the drills.
“They must be made to clearly understand how dearly they have to pay for answering our good faith with hostile acts after letting go the opportunity for improved inter-Korean relations,” said Kim, according to state media.
A day earlier, Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, called the South Korean decision “perfidious,” saying the drills show the need for North Korea to advance its “powerful preemptive strike” capabilities.
In apparent protest of the drills, North Korea also refused to answer South Korea’s phone calls through a pair of recently reconnected inter-Korean hotlines on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Though North Korea blames Washington and Seoul for escalating tensions, the North’s strategy isn’t new. For years, Pyongyang has used both threats and the prospect of talks to pressure Washington and Seoul, analysts say.
“[It’s] the old playbook,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a Seoul-based Korea specialist at the Stimson Center. “We’ve seen this type of behavior from North Korea too much.”
Detente crumbling?
Some in Seoul were optimistic last month, when both Koreas announced that Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in had recently exchanged letters.
It appeared to be the highest level inter-Korean dialogue in nearly two years, and many hoped it would serve as a precursor toward better U.S.-North Korea ties.
As a first step toward improving inter-Korean relations, both leaders decided to reconnect several hotlines that the North had severed a year earlier during a previous outburst.
But even then, there were signs that North Korea was hedging.
Though outward-facing North Korean state media hailed the hotline restoration as a “big stride” toward restoring mutual trust, the article was never published domestically, an indication the North was never wholly committed to the idea of engaging the South, Lee said.
“It was clearly watching South Korea’s handling of the scheduled joint drills,” she added.
Members of South Korea and U.S. Special forces take part in a joint military exercise conducted by South Korean and U.S. special forces troops at Gunsan Air Force base in Gunsan, Aug. 11, 2021.
Pressure point
North Korea regularly warns the South against holding the annual drills and often uses the occasion as a pressure point on Seoul.
This time around, the heat was especially intense for Moon, who has less than a year in office and wants to leave a legacy of inter-Korean cooperation.
“I’m sure he doesn’t want to leave office with inter-Korean relations in this kind of state,” Lee said. “North Korea was one of his top priorities, as we all know.”
But Moon must hold the drills to advance another of his key goals: the transfer of wartime operational control of the South Korean military from the U.S. to South Korea.
Under the current setup, the U.S. would control the South Korean military if war broke out. Moon has said he would like to change that arrangement by the time he leaves office.
But the transfer is not supposed to take place unless numerous benchmarks are met, including South Korea’s performance during military exercises.
Scaled back drills
The U.S. and South Korea have for years scaled back or canceled major military drills, first in an effort to preserve the chances for diplomacy and later because of the pandemic.
This month’s exercises will involve fewer personnel than normal because of the coronavirus, according to several South Korean reports.
The current exercises are computer-based command post exercises, in which teams react to simulated incidents.
David Maxwell, a senior fellow who focuses on Korea at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says such drills are crucial.
“They are the Ph.D. level of defense training because they can provide the full range of complex scenarios,” Maxwell said.
Defensive drills
But no matter their size or scope, North Korea views the drills as an act of aggression, Kim Yo Jong said in her statement this week.
In a regular briefing Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price pushed back on that assertion, saying the exercises are “purely defensive in nature.”
“We have made that point repeatedly, and it’s a very important one,” Price said.
“More broadly, and as we’ve said in recent weeks, we support inter-Korean dialogue. We support inter-Korean engagement, and we’ll continue to work with our (South Korean) partners towards that end,” he added.
What’s next?
Much depends on North Korea’s next move.
While Pyongyang has hinted at more tensions, its statements this week did not carry specific threats.
Officials with South Korea’s spy agency recently told lawmakers in Seoul they expect North Korea could soon test a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
But Lee says the North may be more likely to start with a less risky provocation, such as dissolving North Korean government organizations that handle inter-Korean cooperation.
At the beginning of 2020, Kim Jong Un warned he will no longer be bound by his self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile launches or nuclear tests.
But North Korea may be reluctant to take any step that risks bringing further economic and diplomatic isolation.
North Korea is already dealing with economic hardship caused by its severe coronavirus lockdown, as well as several natural disasters that have hurt its agriculture
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, says those pressures may help explain North’s latest shift.
“North Korea’s amped up rhetoric against scaled down U.S.-South Korea defense exercises appears to be more about domestic politics than signaling to Washington,” he said. “The Kim regime is shifting blame for its struggles to restart the economy after a long, self-imposed pandemic lockdown.”
16. How North Korean Spies Posed as Defectors to Get Eyes on the South
A challenge yes. I do think the NIS does a good job of vetting defectors and escapees. But like the "bomber,"** some will always get through.
**"The bomber will always get through" - Douhet
How North Korean Spies Posed as Defectors to Get Eyes on the South
There have also been reports that South Korea has caught North Korean agents trying to enter the South by posing as defectors.
North Korea and South Korea recently restored their bilateral hotline, a move that was made after an exchange of letters between the leaders of North Korea and South Korea.
“The top leaders of the North and the South agreed to make a big stride in recovering the mutual trust and promoting reconciliation by restoring the cutoff inter-Korean communication liaison lines through the recent several exchanges of personal letters,” the Korean Central News Agency said in late July.
However, that doesn't mean that there isn’t still spying going on. NK News recently looked at how North Korea conducts its modern-day spying operations on South Korea.
“It is reasonable to suspect that South Korea’s nearly 15,000 km of coastline continues to represent a likely entry point for North Korean spies,” the NK News report said. “However, an analysis of historical precedent and expert insights suggest the past two decades have seen dramatic changes in the way Pyongyang conducts espionage in the South. Last week’s charges against a handful of South Korean activists accused of staging protests on behalf of Pyongyang are the latest evidence of changing trendlines in DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) espionage.”
There have also been reports, NK News said, that South Korea has caught North Korean agents trying to enter the South by posing as defectors.
Citing South Korea’s National Assembly, NK News also ran a chart listing the number of arrests each year on espionage charges. There have been four this year, after one each in 2019 and 2020, and none in 2017 or 2018. However, eleven spies were arrested in 2010, eight in 2011 and nine in 2012.
There were even more back in the 1990s.
“One of the most well-known and spectacular instances of North Korean espionage occurred in 1996 when a DPRK submarine carrying twenty-six DPRK soldiers ran aground near South Korea’s northeast coastal city of Gangneung,” NK News said. "They killed sixteen South Koreans in their efforts to make it back to North Korea before ROK (Republic of Korea) forces eliminated twenty-four of the twenty-six infiltrators. (One was apprehended and the other was never found.)”
That led up to 2000 when an inter-Korean summit was held and more than sixty “unconverted” former spies and guerrilla fighters were sent back to North Korea. There was also reportedly an agreement for the two sides to stop spying on each other.
“It would be completely stupid if North Korea would not take advantage of this (defector) situation,” Stephan Blancke, a specialist on DPRK intelligence gathering, told NK News. “Just as Islamist terrorists are smuggled into Europe with the refugees—and there is plenty evidence of this—North Korean intelligence services naturally also try to smuggle their agents among these people.”
Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
Image: Reuters
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
