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Traveling back from Korea. WIll return to my normal posting schedule in a day or so.
Quotes of the Day:
“Can you define "plan" as "a loose sequence of manifestly inadequate observations and conjectures, held together by panic, indecision, and ignorance"? If so, it was a very good plan.”
- Jonathan Stroud, The Ring of Solomon
“Always leave a way out, unless you really want to find out how hard a man can fight when he’s nothing to lose.”
- Robert Jordan, The Fires of Heaven
“Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.”
- Kris Kristofferson
1. N. Korea fires two cruise missiles toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean official
2. South Korean leader: Seoul won't seek own nuclear deterrent
3. China, North Korea will ‘continuously test’ resolve of U.S.-South Korea alliance, ex-commander warns
4. International Forum on One Korea Convenes in Seoul to Build Consensus for Free and United Korea
5. Why North Korea Might Reject Yoon Suk-Yeol’s Audacious Initiative
6. President Yoon wants South Korea to become one of world's top weapons suppliers
7. Yoon wobbles at home and away in first 100 days
8. Gov't to create condition for N. Korea to accept 'audacious' offers, minister says
9. U.S. will maintain sanctions until N. Korea changes behavior: State Dept.
10. U.N. panel OKs sanctions waiver for U.S. civic group's aid to N. Korea
11. Nuclear cooperation between N. Korea, Iran concerning: State Dept.
1.N. Korea fires two cruise missiles toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean official
I guess this is the response to President Yoon's proposal from his Liberation Day Speech.
I wonder how China feels about cruise missiles fired toward the West Sea (Yellow Sea)?
(LEAD) N. Korea fires two cruise missiles toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean official | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · August 17, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES lead paras with details)
SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea test-fired two cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea on Wednesday, a South Korean military official said, as President Yoon Suk-yeol held a press conference to mark the 100th day since taking office.
"(The military) has detected two cruise missiles launched by North Korea from Onchon, South Pyongan Province, into the Yellow Sea early this morning," the official said on the customary condition of anonymity without providing further details, including the exact type of missiles and time of the firing.
South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are conducting a related analysis, with the allies maintaining a firm readiness posture, added the official.
In his Liberation Day speech two days earlier, Yoon laid out the details of his "audacious initiative" meant to help the North improve its economy in the event it takes denuclearization steps.
The North's first known launch of a cruise missile since January also came a day after South Korean and American military troops kicked off preliminary drills just ahead of the start of their annual combined Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise.
While the North is banned from making launches using ballistic missile technologies under U.N. Security Council resolutions, such a firing of a cruise missile is not in violation of them.
colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · August 17, 2022
2. South Korean leader: Seoul won't seek own nuclear deterrent
That seems to settle that issue. But never say never. And will this undermine ROK diplomacy? Would it be better to maintain some strategic ambiguity on this issue?
South Korean leader: Seoul won't seek own nuclear deterrent
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · August 17, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s president said Wednesday his government has no plans to pursue its own nuclear deterrent and called instead for more diplomacy in the face of growing North Korean nuclear weapons capabilities, even as the North test-fired two suspected cruise missiles.
The launches were detected from North Korea’s western coast hours before South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol used a news conference to urge Pyongyang to return to diplomacy aimed at exchanging denuclearization steps for economic benefits.
South Korea’s military, which didn’t reveal the launches until after Yoon’s remarks, provided no immediate flight details about the North’s weapons, including how they moved or how far they traveled.
Yoon’s office said his national security director, Kim Sung-han, discussed the launch with other senior officials before Yoon addressed reporters and that they reviewed the South’s military readiness. Tensions could further rise as the United States and South Korea kick off their biggest combined training in years next week to counter the North Korean threat. The North describes such drills as invasion rehearsals and has often responded to them with missile tests or other provocations.
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Yoon during the news conference maintained a reserved tone on Pyongyang, saying Seoul doesn’t desire political change in North Korea that’s brought by force and that the rivals should aim at building sustainable peace.
Yoon’s comments followed his proposal on Monday for an “audacious” economic assistance package to North Korea if it abandons its nuclear weapons program. He has avoided harsh criticism of the North after it threatened “deadly” retaliation last week over a COVID-19 outbreak it blames on the South.
Yoon’s proposal for large-scale aid in food and healthcare and modernizing power and port infrastructure resembled previous South Korean offers that were rejected by North Korea, which is speeding its development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, seen by leader Kim Jong Un as his strongest guarantee of survival.
Still, Yoon expressed hope for “meaningful dialogue” with North Korea over his plan and stressed that Seoul is willing to provide corresponding economic rewards at each step of a phased denuclearization process if the North commits to a genuine “roadmap” toward fully abandoning its weapons program.
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“We are not telling them to ‘denuclearize entirely first and then we will provide,’” Yoon said. “What we are saying is that we will provide the things we can in correspondence to their steps if they only show a firm determination (toward denuclearization).”
Inter-Korean ties have worsened amid a stalemate in larger nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. that derailed in early 2019 because of disagreements over a relaxation of crippling U.S.-led sanctions on the North in exchange for disarmament steps.
North Korea has ramped up its missile testing to a record pace in 2022, launching more than 30 ballistic weapons so far, including its first intercontinental ballistic missiles in nearly five years.
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The heighted testing activity underscores North Korea’s dual intent to advance its arsenal and force the United States to accept the idea of the North as a nuclear power so it can negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength, experts say. Kim could up the ante soon as there are indications that the North is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test since September 2017, when it claimed to have developed a thermonuclear weapon to fit on its ICBMs.
While Kim’s ICBMs get much of the international attention, North Korea is also expanding its range of nuclear-capable, short-range missiles that can target South Korea. Kim has punctuated his weapons development with threats to proactively use his nuclear weapons in conflicts against the South or the U.S., which experts say communicate an escalating nuclear doctrine that could increase concerns for its neighbors.
Yoon has vowed to strengthen the South’s defenses through its alliance with the United States by resuming large-scale military training that was canceled or downsized during the Trump years and boosting the South’s missile defenses. The Biden administration has also reaffirmed U.S. commitments to defending South Korea and Japan, including “extended deterrence,” referring to an assurance to defend its allies with its full military capabilities, including nuclear.
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But some experts say it’s becoming clear South Korea has no clear way to counter the leverage North Korea has with its nukes, expressing concerns that Washington might hesitate to defend its ally in the event of war when Kim’s ICBMs would pose a potential threat to mainland American cities.
Some South Koreans have called for the reintroduction of tactical U.S. nuclear weapons that were removed from the South in the 1990s, or for Seoul to pursue its own deterrent.
Yoon dismissed the possibility of the latter during the news conference, saying that Seoul will stay committed to an international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
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“I believe the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) regime is a very important and necessary premise for permanent world peace,” Yoon said, expressing hope that the U.S. deterrence strategy for its allies could evolve to counter the North’s growing threat.
Yoon’s comments came after North Korea last week claimed a widely disputed victory over COVID-19 but also blamed South Korea for the outbreak. North Korea insists leaflets and other objects flown across the border by activists spread the virus, an unscientific claim Seoul describes as “ridiculous.”
North Korea has a history of dialing up pressure on South Korea when it doesn’t get what it wants from the United States, and there are concerns that North Korea’s threat portends a provocation, which could include a nuclear or missile test or even border skirmishes. Some experts say North Korea may stir up tensions around joint military exercises between the allies.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · August 17, 2022
3. China, North Korea will ‘continuously test’ resolve of U.S.-South Korea alliance, ex-commander warns
Political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and warfighting strategies are interlinked and mutually supporting and reinforcing.
China, North Korea will ‘continuously test’ resolve of U.S.-South Korea alliance, ex-commander warns
washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor
North Korea and China will “continuously test the resolve” of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, according to the former commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, who described the 69-year-old partnership in remarks over the weekend as the “textbook” example of the vital role long-standing alliances play in maintaining America’s strength as a global power.
Former Adm. Harry Harris, who headed U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from 2015 to 2018 and later served as American ambassador to South Korea, told a summit in Seoul that Washington should continue to “hope for diplomacy,” but stressed that “dialogue and military readiness must go hand-in-hand.”
“The quest for dialogue with North Korea must never be made at the expense of the ability to respond to threats from the North,” said Mr. Harris, who was among a slate of prominent U.S. figures, including former President Donald Trump, who spoke at the Aug. 11-15 summit that focused on efforts to achieve world peace and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
“We must not relax sanctions or reduce joint military exercises just to get North Korea to come to the negotiating table,” Mr. Harris said. “This is a fool’s errand. If exercises and sanctions are reduced as an outcome of negotiations … fine … that’s why we have negotiations. But don’t give them away beforehand.”
Mr. Trump, meanwhile, told the gathering that his strategy of keeping the “toughest pressure” on Pyongyang, while simultaneously “offering unprecedented outreach and engagement,” resulted in historic summits in 2018 and 2019 with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that exposed how the dangerous paradigm surrounding the isolated nation could be shifted.
“Everyone said that my approach was going to get us into a war. But no, my approach is what kept us out of war,” Mr. Trump said in a videotaped address. “I was proud to become the first American president to meet with the leader of North Korea.
“For the duration of my term, Chairman Kim kept the pledge to me that he made at our first summit to cease all long-range missile testing, and he did that. The entire world was much more secure as a result… The region was safe and the world was calm because America was strong and respected. Indeed, we were stronger than ever before, not only on North Korea, but also on many other critical issues, including China.”
Mr. Trump went on to express remorse over the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, describing the development last month as a “horrible loss for the entire planet.”
“He will be missed,” Mr. Trump said. “I want to express my profound condolences to his family and to all of the people of Japan. With the help of many of you here today, Prime Minister Abe’s dream of a free and open Indo-Pacific will live on.”
The remarks were a poignant moment at the summit that was organized by leaders of the Unification movement and featured a range of discussion events and speeches weighing in on evolving international efforts to address threats emanating from China, North Korea and Russia.
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Vice President Dan Quayle and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were among a slate of American political leaders who participated or provided remarks. A host of others from around the world were also on hand, including Slovak politician Jan Figel, a former European Union special envoy for the promotion of religious freedom.
Mr. Pence emphasized the need for world leaders to stand up for religious freedom, specifically citing oppression by the governments of China and North Korea.
“We believe that every human being should have the freedom to live, to work, to worship according to the dictates of their conscience,” the former vice president said. “With one voice, we condemn the repression of Christians and Jews and Muslims and religious minorities taking place in North Korea and China.”
Former Taiwanese Vice President and feminist activist Annette Lu called on world leaders to stand for peace at a moment when Taiwan is threatened by the China. The government in Beijing, formally known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), claims sovereignty over the Western-backed island democracy.
China, said Ms. Lu, “has to be honest to the reality that ever since [Taiwan’s] establishment in 1949 the PRC has never ruled Taiwan.”
But she also suggested the dynamics are nuanced between the two. “Taiwan stands for peace and justice and has always been friendly with other countries, including China,” Ms. Lu said, adding that disputes could be resolved if China were to shift its posture toward Taiwan from “unification to integration.”
Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper also homed in on Taiwan, expressing concern that the U.S. and Western allies have been “ambiguous” in their “commitment to helping the people of Taiwan preserve their democracy.”
Mr. Harper told the summit that issues of international peace and security writ-large have “undergone a sea-change” over the past year, with the most prominent example being Russian President “Vladimir Putin’s brutal, unprovoked, full-scale, invasion of Ukraine.”
“The top line story in much of the global media has been about … the unity of purpose of the democratic world … in opposition to Putin’s invasion,” Mr. Harper said. “This obscures what should be the real lesson of this crisis: Unity and strength after a war has begun is important … but it is far more important to show strength in peacetime, through deterrence.”
His comments dovetailed with a message Mr. Pompeo conveyed in an interview with The Washington Times on the sidelines of the summit. The former secretary of state sharply criticized the current U.S. administration, claiming an “absence of resolve” in its foreign policy invites aggression from adversaries around the world.
“Deterrence depends on both capabilities and intention, and the administration has not shown the intention to protect the things that matter,” said Mr. Pompeo, who asserted that China, especially, has grown emboldened to advance its interests vis-a-vis Taiwan with confidence that Washington will seek to avoid confrontation.
The gathering in South Korea — officially titled “Summit 2022 and Leadership Conference” — was sponsored by the Universal Peace Federation. The federation was co-founded by Hak Ja Han Moon, the leader of the Unification Church and wife of the late Rev. Sun Myung Moon.
The two devoted their lives to the promotion of world peace and the reunification of the Korean Peninsula — an undergirding premise of the movement that grew from the Unification Church that Rev. Moon founded in 1954. The movement has evolved through the decades into a global spiritual movement and an affiliated commercial empire comprising hundreds of ventures in more than a half-dozen countries, including hospitals, universities and newspapers, including The Washington Times.
In a notable development, a North Korean organization sent Rev. Moon’s family a condolence telegram during the summit in Seoul, recognizing the upcoming 10th anniversary of his death. The message of sympathy from the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee indicated Pyongyang maintains good relations with the Unification movement, which once operated vehicle production and hotel businesses in North Korea, according to Kyodo News, a Japanese news agency.
The agency noted that Rev. Moon, who was born in present-day North Korea, was a staunch anti-Communist who founded the political group International Federation for Victory over Communism in South Korea and Japan in 1968. While he promoted the group for decades, Rev. Moon also engaged in outreach to North Korea, visiting and holding talks with North Korean regime founder Kim Il Sung in 1991.
The necessity of nuanced diplomacy and alliances in dealing with Pyongyang was a theme touched on by several speakers over the weekend.
Mr. Harris reminded the gathering in Seoul that “North Korea stands out as the only nation this century to test nuclear weapons,” and said the country is “ruled with an iron fist by a brutal dictator who values his pursuit for power over the prosperity and welfare of his own people.”
“Pyongyang’s unrelenting pursuit of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them … and the North’s unmitigated aggression towards the South, should concern us all,” said Mr. Harris, who stressed that “the U.S. stands firmly with South Korea and is fully committed to the alliance.”
“Diplomacy and diplomats matter,” he said. “Alliances matter.”
While Mr. Harris rebuked the current administration for not moving quickly enough in nominating an ambassador to South Korea — Ambassador Philip Goldberg was confirmed in May — he praised the Biden White House’s recently released Indo-Pacific Strategy.
“It recognizes that America’s single greatest asymmetric strength is our network of alliances and partnerships,” the former admiral said. “The president makes alliances the centerpiece of his foreign policy. To this I say, bravo.”
• Guy Taylor can be reached at gtaylor@washingtontimes.com.
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4. International Forum on One Korea Convenes in Seoul to Build Consensus for Free and United Korea
International Forum on One Korea Convenes in Seoul to Build Consensus for Free and United Korea | Global Peace Foundation
globalpeace.org
by Eric Olsen
GPF Chairman Dr. Hyun Jin Moon addresses the International Forum
on One Korea in Seoul.
Korean National Assembly members, international diplomats, and Korea experts examined geopolitical obstacles and opportunities for reunification of the Korean peninsula arising from the war in Ukraine, intensifying US-China relations over the status of Taiwan and growing global rivalry, and the recent inauguration of Yoon Suk-yeol as president of South Korea during the opening of the International Forum on One Korea in Seoul on August 13, 2022.
The forum, “Free and Unified Korea: A Catalyst for Regional and Global Peace and Development,” was the latest of many expert convenings hosted by the Global Peace Foundation around the world since 2012 to bring focus to the ongoing division of Korea as a global security threat and to the North Korean regime as a rogue dictatorship and human rights violator.
Choong-whan Kim, Co-Chair of Action for Korea United.
Absent constructive engagement with North Korean officials, the International Forum on One Korea is working to build global consensus for Korean-led peaceful unification as an approach to validate and affirm Korea’s cultural heritage, which transcends the political division, and ultimately disengage the Korean peninsula from Great Power rivalries.
“Since the Korean peninsula has been divided by great powers, the reunification of the Korean peninsula must be accomplished through the agreement and cooperation of the powers under the leadership of Korea,” Hon. Choong-whan Kim, Co-Chair of Action for Korea United and Secretary General of the Parliamentarian’s Society of the Republic of Korea, told the forum.
“Each of them is responsible for the current situation: Japan colonized Korea, the U.S., and the Soviet Union agreed to divide the Korean peninsula during the Cold War, and China supported North Korea in the Korean War, thus solidifying the current armistice situation. . . . If these four powers agree on the unification of the Korean peninsula, the security instability surrounding the Korean peninsula, including the North Korean nuclear issue, can be easily resolved.”
The role of nonaligned nations
Countries “free of political interests in the Korean Peninsula region, such as Indonesia, [can] become ‘honest brokers,’ namely negotiators who are impartial or impartial with certain interests,” said Dr. Musdah Mulia, chairperson of the Indonesian Conference on Religions for Peace.
Discussing the constructive role that non-aligned
nations can play in support of Korean reunification were
(from top) Dr. Musdah Mulia (Indonesia), Ashok Sajjanhar
(India), and Dr. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak (Thailand).
“The complicated relationship between North and South Korea requires a concrete solution that is more humane, and free from the interests of a big country like the United States.”
Dr. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, chairman of the Nation-Building Institute in Thailand and a Senior Fellow at Harvard University, added that “ASEAN and Thailand are suitable to play a supporting role in the unification process as both ASEAN and Thailand are very close to the two Koreas.
“A free and unified Korea benefits Thailand and the entire ASEAN region,” Dr. Chareonwongsak said. “ASEAN and Thailand could help establish platforms for all stakeholders to build common ground and a stable external security environment for Korean unification,” he noted, as well as provide financial, infrastructure, and human development support.
India’s former ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden, and Latvia Ashok Sajjanhar said India enjoys “excellent relations with ROK, both in the political and strategic as well as economic and commercial spheres. India also maintains an embassy in Pyongyang. India stands ready to play its due part in bringing the two countries together.”
He observed that while the EU integration and German unification models are significantly different from the situation in the Koreas, there are several elements that are common, and the European experiences can be put to good use to expedite the process of Korean reunification.
“The shared heritage of all Koreans transcends the current ideological, political, and national divisions. It is the root to which Koreans in both North and South must be re-connected to provide the vision and energy that can reunify the separated people.”
Presenting a more cautionary analysis, Col. (R) David Maxwell, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in the United States, said the North is “actively working to subvert the South and its relations with the U.S. and the international community. It is conducting illicit activities around the world from proliferation of weapons to conflict zones to counterfeiting and money laundering to cyber-attacks to drug trafficking. But worst of all it is conducting crimes against humanity on a scale we have not seen since World War II. It is the worst human rights abuser in the modern era.
U.S. analyst Col. (R) David Maxwell argued that reunification
was the only realistic means of ending the security threat
and human rights abuses of the North Korean regime.
“The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea. One that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, freedom, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.”
A shared heritage
Presenting the keynote speech, Dr. Hyun Jin Preston Moon, founder and chairman of the Global Peace Foundation, told participants that “the Korean people today face two major challenges: unifying their divided homeland and rediscovering their Korean identity. The two are intertwined. Once we understand that unification is not just about the dealings of governments but is the coming together of a separated people, then it becomes clear that a strong sense of Korean identity is essential for the Korean people in the South and in the North to be able to reunite.
“Throughout their history Koreans have embraced different faith traditions that have come to this land,” the GPF chairman said. “But our ancestors always digested those traditions and gave them a unique Korean character, rooted in the Hongik Ingan [“living for the greater benefit of all humanity”] tradition.
GPF Chairman Hyun Jin Moon delivers the keynote
address
“This is the shared heritage of all Koreans that transcends the current ideological, political, and national divisions. It is the root to which Koreans in both North and South must be re-connected to provide the vision and energy that can reunify the separated people.
“By 2025, the 80th anniversary of liberation, we will hold public rallies in towns and cities all over the South in support of a free and unified Korea, reminiscent of the Sam Il movement for independence more than a hundred years ago.
“Such a powerful expression of solidarity behind a common vision led by the Korean people instead of any government or political party will allow the South to bypass its hyper partisan divide and let their brethren in the North know that they are not alone, that the future for all Koreans lies in our providential destiny to create a new model nation together.”
Other distinguished speakers as the opening session included Hon. Jong-kul Lee, Chairman of the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation and former five-term member of the ROK National Assembly; Hon. Moon-pyo Hong, Member (People Power Party) of the ROK National Assembly; Hon. Sang-min Lee, Member (Democratic Party) of the ROK National Assembly; Nobuo Tanaka, former executive director of the International Energy Agency; and Ambassador Jargalsaikhan Enkhsaikhan, chairman of Blue Banner and former Mongolian Ambassador to the United Nations.
The International Forum on One Korea was convened by the Global Peace Foundation, Action for Korea United, Parliamentarian’s Society of the Republic of Korea, Korean Senior Citizens Association, Korean National Police Veterans Association, Federation of Artistic & Cultural Organization of Korea, One Korea Foundation, and Leaders’ Alliance for Korea Unification. It was sponsored by the ROK Ministry of Unification and Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, and in partnership with Action for Korea United Professors Association, Blue Banner, and Alliance for Korea United.
To learn more about Global Peace Foundation work to advance peaceful reunification, visit One Korea Global Campaign towards a Free and Unified Korea | Global Peace Foundation
globalpeace.org
5. Why North Korea Might Reject Yoon Suk-Yeol’s Audacious Initiative
Why North Korea Might Reject Yoon Suk-Yeol’s Audacious Initiative
Forbes · by Scott Snyder · August 17, 2022
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during the celebration of the 77th National Liberation Day at the Presidential House on August 15, 2022 in Seoul, South Korea.
Ahn Young-Joon - Pool/Getty Images
In his first Liberation Day speech marking the 77th anniversary of the end of Japanese colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced an “audacious” initiative that laid out the foundation of his administration’s approach to North Korea. The initiative is premised on the idea of a comprehensive, phased, and step-by-step denuclearization of North Korea and the normalization of inter-Korean relations in exchange for a bold program of economic assistance, development, and infrastructure investment. While Yoon’s audacious plan may be the most generous, tangible, and wide-ranging offer yet proposed by South Korea in exchange for North Korea’s complete denuclearization, there are at least three reasons why the North Koreans are likely to reject it out of hand.
First, Yoon’s initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea in exchange for security concessions. These were the same assumptions that were behind a succession of failed efforts to jump-start denuclearization talks, most recently including efforts by both the Donald Trump and Lee Myung-bak administrations. But Kim Jong-un’s military modernization goals laid out in the January 2021 Eighth Party Congress clearly underscores that Kim has shifted from an approach that prioritized simultaneous economic and military development to one that sees military development as a necessity for preserving the North Korean system under Kim’s rule. Kim cannot build a credible record of domestic accomplishments toward the goal of economic development on the back of South Korean largesse; instead, Kim has prioritized military development at the expense of economic prosperity as an essential prerequisite for maintaining regime survival.
Second, the North Koreans are likely to read Yoon’s initiative as an effort to achieve South Korea’s economic absorption of North Korea rather than as a process built on inter-Korean economic integration. Given Kim’s distrust of external parties, he must be carefully attuned to any externally led efforts to induce North Korea’s economic dependency. In this respect, the more audacious the South Korean plan, the less likely it is to fly with North Korea. The same was true of North Korea’s attitude toward the Moon administration’s vision for a unified Korean economy. The acuteness of North Korea’s economic vulnerability will make the leadership all the more resistant toward South Korean-proposed infrastructure projects, as was demonstrated by the restrictions the North Koreans imposed on the Gaesong Industrial Zone projects almost a decade ago.
Undated photo released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on April 17, 2022 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he observes the test firing of a new-type tactical guided weapon in North Korea.
KCNA VIA KNS/AFP via Getty Images
Third, the North Koreans have already rejected the premises under which Yoon’s plan has been developed and put forward. Kim clearly envisions his survival and that of North Korea as premised on the country’s nuclear status, not tradeable for North Korea’s economic integration with either South Korea or the global economy. Moreover, North Korea has consistently failed to honor the principle of reciprocity in implementing negotiations by pocketing the concessions of others without responding with concessions of its own. Yoon’s audacious plan appears to envision a trust-building approach between the two Koreas that would enable both sides to proceed with step-by-step measures. But if the establishment of reciprocity-based mutual trust was not realized under the Moon administration, which bent over backwards to send gestures of respect and goodwill toward North Korea, it will be even harder for Kim to trust a Yoon administration deeply ensconced in the very values of freedom and human rights that North Korea denies.
If North Korea is likely to reject Yoon’s initiative and Yoon indeed is trying to make Kim an offer that he cannot refuse, what would make the initiative so audacious? By presenting Kim with an offer so sweet that many judge it cannot be refused, the true audacity of the Yoon initiative may be that it seeks to strengthen its moral high ground in the face of North Korean nuclear intransigence, further bolster domestic support for deterrence in light of North Korea’s refusal to engage in diplomacy, and show how far South Korea might be willing to go to preserve peace in the face of the North’s increasing military threat.
Scott Snyder is Senior Fellow for Korea Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and co-editor of the forthcoming volume, North Korea’s Foreign Policy: The Kim Jong-un Regime in a Hostile World.
Forbes · by Scott Snyder · August 17, 2022
6. President Yoon wants South Korea to become one of world's top weapons suppliers
A global pivotal state stepping up on the world stage.
President Yoon wants South Korea to become one of world's top weapons suppliers
CNN · by Brad Lendon and Gawon Bae, CNN
Seoul, South Korea (CNN)South Korea plans to become one of the world's top four weapons suppliers, President Yoon Suk Yeol said Wednesday as he addressed reporters in a speech marking his first 100 days in office.
"By entering the world's top four defense exporters after the United States, Russia and France, the (South Korean) defense industry will become a strategic industrialization and a defense powerhouse," Yoon said at the presidential office.
In 2021, South Korea ranked 10th in the world in arms transfers, according to the authoritative Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
With arms exports valued at $566 million, according to SIPRI's unique trend-indicator value monitoring system, Seoul was well behind last year's No. 4 exporter, Italy, which sold arms worth $1.7 billion.
For comparison, US arms transfers were calculated to be $10.6 billion.
South Korea has already taken steps to achieve its top four ambitions.
Late last month, it signed its biggest-ever arms deal to supply Poland with almost 1,000 K2 tanks, more than 600 pieces of artillery and dozens of fighter jets.
A South Korean-made FA-50 multirole light fighter aircraft of the Philippine Air Force performs a fly-past during a ceremony prior to landing at the Clark Air Base in Angeles City on November 28, 2015.
And in February it inked a $1.7 billion deal with Egypt to supply it with K9 self-propelled howitzers and support vehicles.
Late last year, South Korea made another massive deal to supply Australia with K9s.
If South Korea meets Yoon's goal, it will surpass not only Italy, but regional power China as well as Germany, Spain, Israel and the United Kingdom, according to the SIPRI rankings.
"I believe this is a very ambitious goal," said Chun In-Bum, a retired South Korean general turned military analyst.
"South Korea and its arms industry have to do a lot of work," he said.
'Defense major league'
Yoon is largely building on initiatives started under his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, whom Yoon succeeded in May.
Eunwoo Lee, a former translator at the South Korean Defense Ministry, writing in The Diplomat in March, said Moon "changed topography of the nation's military," increasing its defense budgets by about 7% a year.
At a defense exhibition near Seoul last October, Moon vowed to innovate "in line with changes in the security environment and technological progress."
The investments begun by Moon are paying off, analysts say.
Writing in the online journal War on the Rocks this week, researchers Peter Lee and Tom Corben of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney said sales like the tanks and warplanes to Poland and howitzers to Australia have already pushed Seoul into the "defense major league" with what they called its "K-arsenal."
Seoul's military hardware provides a less expensive but extremely capable alternative to Washington's weapons systems and that's something the US should embrace, the University of Sydney researchers said.
Those systems include the KF-21 fighter jet.
The homegrown supersonic fighter, which had its first successful test flight in July, is expected to provide a boost of about $18.3 billion to the South Korean arms industry, Yoon said Wednesday.
Budget stretchers
For buyers, the South Korean weapons can be a way to stretch defense budgets.
The South Korean K2 tanks, for instance, are comparable to pricey top-of-the-line main battle tanks like the American M1A2 Abrams, said Chun, the former South Korean general.
Poland announced earlier this year it would buy 250 Abrams, but US production lines are limited and US military needs come first. The purchase of almost 1,000 Korean K2s allows Warsaw to add significant numbers quicker than it could get new US-made tanks, analysts say.
That's good news for US interests even if US defense companies aren't profiting, they say.
A South Korean K2 tank fires during a live fire demonstration at the Defense Expo Korea 2018 in Pocheon, South Korea.
"Cast in a strategic light, Seoul's growing ability and willingness to supply advanced capabilities to other US allies should be welcomed, particularly as the Biden administration grapples with the parallel challenges of resourcing military strategies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific while shoring up America's own defense industrial capacity," Lee and Corben wrote.
Questions have been raised about how close Seoul and Washington really are on key challenges.
For instance, after US-China tensions spiked over the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan earlier this month, when Pelosi visited South Korea afterward, Yoon did not meet in person with her, opting instead for a phone call. That led to speculation South Korea was trying not to upset China.
"Even if questions remain over the true extent of South Korea's strategic alignment with the United States, Seoul is nevertheless generating strategic effects by arming states facing Chinese and Russian coercion," Lee and Corbin wrote.
Chun said the recently announced sale of tanks to Poland could bring benefits for the South Korean military, too.
The K2 tanks in South Korea's inventory are not as capable as those the Poles will be getting because significant improvements -- including better defenses -- have been made since the K2s were introduced in 2014, he said.
"I hope this is going to be a catalyst for Koreans. We have 2,000 tanks, but if you have legacy tanks, they're not worth a thing. We saw this in Ukraine. We need state of the art tanks to overcome state-of-the-art antitank missiles. I'm hoping that this would be a catalyst for that," Chun said.
CNN · by Brad Lendon and Gawon Bae, CNN
7. Yoon wobbles at home and away in first 100 days
But he has done one very important thing and that is to strengthen the ROK/US alliance. And he is making a concerted effort to improve relations with Japan. He is enhancing the security of the ROK.
Yoon wobbles at home and away in first 100 days
New South Korean leader’s approval ratings have collapsed to 25% while his foreign policy choices risk alienating top trade partner China
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · August 17, 2022
SEOUL – Yoon Suk-yeol has 1,725 days remaining as president of South Korea, but after just 100 days in the hot seat, his tenure is already looking decidedly shaky.
Having won the March election with a margin of less than 0.75% – the smallest in the nation’s democratic history – his approval ratings have plunged from 54% when he entered office in May to 25% at present.
That is, according to local pundits, a record for a new leader. Calling it “extremely rare,” the conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized, “It means that not only the people who voted for or abstained from their opponents in the presidential election, but also the people who chose President Yoon Suk-yeol are disappointed.”
While his policy record so early in his term is difficult to fault, his optics are dire. As a former backroom player – he was an elite prosecutor before entering the national political arena – his inexperience has been glaring under the spotlight.
To be sure, Yoon is a novelty. He expended scare political capital on moving the presidential office/residence from the “imperial” Blue House compound to a workaday site in the Defense Ministry’s office cluster, declaring he wanted a more open presidency.
Previous presidents only spoke to media in pre-scripted press conferences but Yoon has taken to speaking to a press gaggle most mornings as he arrives for work. While his attempt at openness is commendable, he has been flayed for his unprepared, gawky and sometimes indignant responses.
Nor has his high-profile wife and his unpopular personal appointments – he is accused of cronyism by seeding the bureaucracy with ex-prosecutors – done him any favors.
And his media behavior has been reflected by what look to be unpracticed policy announcements by his ministries. The progressive Hankoyreh daily compared Yoon’s governing style “to the reckless maneuvering of an inexperienced driver.”
“In Korea, the sense is you have to announce a thing before the public – ‘an announcement before an announcement’ – that gives time to read and gauge the public mood before dropping policies,” David Tizzard, who teaches Korean Studies at Seoul Women’s University, explained. “That is what is harming him at the moment and probably shows his lack of political experience and expertise.”
As in most democratic polities, it is domestic policies that matter most. But on the foreign policy front, Yoon has taken power at a time of dangerous developments: China-US decoupling is widening a multifaceted security-industrial-technological-trade chasm in the region.
Unlike his predecessors, Yoon is taking a clear side.
The president and his advisors, “see that the long-term landscape in East Asia is bipolarization: decoupling is happening and South Korea is at the edge of this, the frontier. So what is the answer?” Go Myong-hyun, of think tank the Asan Institute, told Asia Times. “They have been very critical of [presidential predecessor] Moon Jae-in who they think tried to sit on the fence and ignore the problem and hope it will go away.”
Yoon has so far taken a radically different approach to foreign policy than predecessor Moon Jae-in. Credit: Handout.
China-US conundrum
South Korea has always existed in a tough neighborhood. Not only does it face off against nuclear-armed national competitor North Korea, it is surrounded by bigger local powers – China, Japan, Russia and the US.
Critically, South Korea’s position is complicated by a fiendish conundrum: It is beholden on the one hand to China, its main export consumer, and on the other to the US, its security guarantor.
Yoon’s democratic predecessors managed to pull off a balancing act between these divergent powers. But now, South Korea is under greater-than-ever pressure to lean in one direction.
At a time when North Korea is seeking to draw diplomatically closer to an increasingly isolated Russia, South Korea is coming under US pressure to cleave closer to its bosom as Washington seeks to slow the advance of rising competitor China.
Some signals Yoon has delivered on the China-US conundrum may be misleading.
Yoon surprised the global anti-China commentariat when he was the only regional leader not to meet US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on her controversial Asia tour. Pelosi ignited massive tensions over and around Taiwan, an issue South Korea has zero interest in being drawn into.
“South Korea’s position is not inconsistent: it has always stuck to the ‘One China’ policy and wants stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Go said. “I think this is why Yoon did not meet Pelosi – she went there against the advice of her own president…anyone who shakes the boat here in the region is the guilty party.”
And both Yoon’s foreign and technology ministers, speaking to foreign reporters, have voiced hopes that the nascent Washington-led “Fab 4” semiconductor supply chain agreement, which aims to unite Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the US, will not be an exclusionary body.
But overall, the course of Yoon’s foreign policy alignments is clear.
Having sounded the pro-American trumpet during his campaign – promising to both expand the scope of the US alliance beyond its traditional security limits, and to talk up the benefits of democracy, rights and freedom on the global stage – he was rewarded with a visit from US President Joe Biden in May.
On the occasion, he joined the US Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) discussion group, designed – albeit with considerable vagueness – to set future global industrial and technological cooperation and standardization.
His position on that front has been beefed up with multi-billion dollar investments in the US by Korean tech giants SK hynix and Samsung Electronics.
He also pleased US hawks by attending the Madrid NATO summit and restarting the once-customary joint drills on and around Korea with GIs. They were suspended under Yoon’s predecessor Moon Jae-in on the grounds of first giving diplomacy with North Korea “room to work,” then on the grounds of Covid-19 risks.
China cannot fail to have noticed Yoon’s pro-US slant.
Still, Yoon might have hoped that his reticence toward Pelosi would give his foreign minister, Park Jin, some goodwill in his wide-ranging discussions with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week.
That hope was dashed. A post-visit diplomatic storm blew up over the operational conditions of a US THAAD missile defense battery on Korean soil and the so-called “Three Nos.”
The launch of a US High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor. Photo: AFP
Some background: China imposed economic sanctions on South Korea after the battery, which Seoul said was for South Korea’s defense against North Korea but which Beijing insisted could snoop on its own missiles, was deployed in South Korea in 2017.
That led Moon to offer “Three Nos” to Chinese President Xi Jinping, namely that there would be no expansion of THAAD; no joining of a US missile defense system; and no trilateral security alliance with Japan.
With a new Korean president in office, Beijing clearly wants policy continuity that Yoon’s team has not yet offered.
Post-meeting claims by China’s foreign ministry regarding the “Three Nos” were immediately refuted by Park in comments to media. And major figures in South Korea including the defense minister stormed that the THAAD deployment was a sovereign decision to be taken by South Korea, not China.
Amid this sturm und drang, a Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told local media that, “Basically, the two foreign ministers were clearly sounding out each other’s positions on THAAD.”
Still, one expert reckons that Yoon is being nothing but realistic.
Yoon’s team believe “strategic ambiguity has run its course and want to put strategic clarity on the table as the best way to minimize damage to South Korea’s position,” Go said. “People worry that this will make China angry, but I think what is more risky is to sit on the fence and believe that South Korea is a neutral zone.”
Given public opinion polls that suggest that China is now the least-popular country among Koreans, Yoon may be given leeway by middle Korea when it comes to taking a tougher line against the nation’s key trade partner.
“Some Koreans on the left will see anything America as imperialism and on other side, there are all these old people waving US flags in demonstrations downtown,” Tizzard said of two political extremes. “But I think the average Korea is more on the side of the US than China, because of values.”
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is waiting for Yoon Suk-yeol to resolve issues before he makes his own move to improve Japan-Korean ties. Photo: AFP / Masanori Genko / The Yomiuri Shimbun
Olive branches for Japan
Chinese eyebrows may also be raised by Yoon’s posture toward Japan.
Defying a highly emotive thread of public sentiment that vilifies Japan for both its 1910-1945 colonial-era brutalities and its perceived refusals to atone since, Yoon continues to hold out an olive branch of improved relations.
Rather than lambasting Japan in his speech on August 15 – the date of the Japanese defeat in 1945, ergo liberation day for Koreans – Yoon said, “Japan is our partner as we face common threats that challenge the freedom of global citizens….the governments and peoples of both countries, based on mutual respect, must contribute to the peace and prosperity of the international community through extensive cooperation.”
But he has a problem. Under his predecessor Moon, two agreements and compensation packages – one on forced labor in 1965, one on “comfort women” in 2015 – were de facto overturned. The former issue, which was ignited by a 2018 Korean court decision that seized Japanese assets to compensate forced laborers, is particularly problematic.
Yoon is a long-time legal professional, but due to the systemic South Korean firewall between judiciary and executive, any political finessing of the 2018 court decision is ticklish if not impossible.
And Asia Times has learned from a source that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is unlikely to make any major concessions toward South Korea until the 2018 decision is resolved.
Kishida has personal exposure as the then-foreign minister who convinced then-prime Minister Shinzo Abe to sign a 2015 deal in which Japan admitted “painful responsibility” toward comfort women and “sincere apologies and remorse” as premier. Abe reluctantly agreed, the source said, only when the words “final and irreversible” were inserted into the agreement.
However, the deal signed by the then-Park Geun-hye administration was unilaterally abrogated by the Moon government. It is left to Yoon to pick up the pieces if he wants to upgrade Japan relations.
It may take time before he can take actions that will keep his own public mollified while satisfying Tokyo.
“I think it is a matter of time, neither side is in a hurry.” Go said. “There are strong political demands from the perspective publics and politically the Yoon camp probably believe they have done a lot compared to what Moon did. That is not a high bar to clear.”
And given that he was elected largely on dissatisfaction with his predecessor’s policies on housing – which is in short supply and seriously overpriced in metropolitan areas – he has to double down on domestic issues before he can refocus on Japan.
“Yoon is reaching out a lot as Tokyo is a democratic ally,” said Tizzard. “But he needs to focus on housing as that is what got him into office – ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”
Follow this writer on Twitter @ASalmonSeoul
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · August 17, 2022
8. Gov't to create condition for N. Korea to accept 'audacious' offers, minister says
This will be a trick. The only condition is Kim Jong Un. Will he accept any offer (I think not)
Gov't to create condition for N. Korea to accept 'audacious' offers, minister says | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 18, 2022
SEOUL, Aug. 18 (Yonhap) -- The Yoon Suk-yeol administration will strive to create a condition for North Korea to embrace the "audacious initiative" intended to support its economic development for its denuclearization steps, Seoul's point man on Pyongyang told lawmakers Thursday.
Unification Minister Kwon Young-se said the government plans to send more specific messages to the North, going forward, and have related consultations with such other major countries concerned as the United States and China.
In his speech to mark the 77th Liberation Day on Monday, Yoon unveiled some details of the plan, one of his key campaign pledges, to help the impoverished North develop its economy in return for taking steps toward denuclearization. He made offers of a bold program of economic assistance, development, and infrastructure investment.
Speaking at a National Assembly session, Kwon described it as a "bold and comprehensive initiative, which includes economic, political, and military corresponding measures, in accordance with the tangible progress of North Korea's denuclearization."
He added that the government will make preparations for relevant talks with Pyongyang through inter-agency cooperation and focus efforts on drumming up support from other nations.
The Kim Jong-un regime has not responded formally to the conservative South Korean president's overtures. It instead test-fired two cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea on Wednesday, according to the South's military.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 18, 2022
9. U.S. will maintain sanctions until N. Korea changes behavior: State Dept.
U.S. will maintain sanctions until N. Korea changes behavior: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 18, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- The United States will continue to maintain strong sanctions against North Korea until the recalcitrant country changes its behavior and engages in dialogue, a state department spokesperson said Wednesday.
Department Press Secretary Ned Price made the remarks after North Korea fired two cruise missiles, marking its 19th show of force this year and first since June.
"We will continue to maintain those sanctions until and unless the underlying conduct, the underlying activity changes and North Korea alters its fundamental approach," the spokesperson said in a daily press briefing.
Price also reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea and other U.S. allies in the region.
"Our commitments in the face of the DPRK's continued provocations to the security of our allies, including the ROK and Japan, and of course in the Indo Pacific is ironclad," said Price, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"Until and unless the DPRK changes its approach and takes us up on our offer of pragmatic, practical dialogue and diplomacy, leading towards that ultimate goal of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, we will continue to coordinate closely with our allies, both to seek engagement but also to ensure that the DPRK is held accountable, held accountable for its continued provocations," he added.
ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.
North Korea fired the cruise missiles as South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol reaffirmed his commitment to helping North Korea as long as the impoverished country shows commitment to denuclearization in a press conference, marking the 100th day of his inauguration.
Yoon on Monday promised to help "significantly improve" the North Korean economy if Pyongyang takes denuclearization steps.
The state department spokesperson said the U.S. supports the South Korean leader's initiative to engage with North Korea.
"We strongly support what we have heard from President Yoon. We support the ROK's aim to open a path for serious and sustained diplomacy with North Korea," said Price.
"It is not only our goal. It is our shared and collective goal to see the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and we are committed to working very closely with President Yoon," he added.
Price declined to comment directly on what he called North Korea's "alleged cruise missile launches," only saying the country's recent ballistic missile launches were a clear threat to peace and security in the region.
"I think looking over the longer arc, especially in recent years where the DPRK's provocations, including its launches of ballistic missiles, including ICBMs and ICBM technology, those are clear provocations. They are a clear threat to peace and security in the Indo Pacific and potentially beyond," he said.
"And that is really at the crux of our determination to continue working closely with our treaty allies and with other allies and partners throughout the Indo Pacific and well beyond."
North Korea fired more than 30 ballistic missiles this year in 18 rounds of missile launches, with the last round held on June 5.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 18, 2022
10. U.N. panel OKs sanctions waiver for U.S. civic group's aid to N. Korea
U.N. panel OKs sanctions waiver for U.S. civic group's aid to N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · August 17, 2022
SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- A United Nations Security Council committee on North Korea sanctions has approved a sanctions exemption for a U.S.-based aid group to send spine-related rehabilitation equipment to the impoverished country, its website showed Wednesday.
Under the decision, Ignis Community will be exempt from U.N. sanctions to send medical and rehabilitation equipment for the Pyongyang Spine and Rehabilitation Centre.
The equipment, which includes decompression tables, treadmills and electric hospital beds, is worth a total of US$506,408.
The U.N. panel, tasked with overseeing sanctions measures imposed against the North, issued the approval on Aug. 12 and the exemption will be effective for nine months.
It remains unclear when the equipment will be delivered to the North as the reclusive country maintains strict border controls against COVID-19.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · August 17, 2022
11. Nuclear cooperation between N. Korea, Iran concerning: State Dept.
Nuclear cooperation between N. Korea, Iran concerning: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 17, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Aug. 16 (Yonhap) -- Any nuclear cooperation between North Korea and Iran is concerning, a state department spokesperson said Tuesday, calling the two countries the "most acute proliferation threats."
State Department Press Secretary Ned Price also noted the countries have a history of violating international norms.
"We have released information on this. Some of this information has been reportedly publicly as well," the spokesperson said when asked about possible nuclear cooperation between Pyongyang and Tehran.
North Korea has long been suspected of exporting its weapons of mass destruction and related technologies, including those of nuclear weapons program, to countries such as Iran.
Price said it was concerning to see any nuclear cooperation between "two of the most acute proliferation threats the world faces -- the DPRK, a regime that has, of course, already a nuclear weapons program and Iran, a regime that has advanced its nuclear program in a way that is of concern to us."
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"So any cooperation between countries that have consistently and unapologetically flouted multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions, the international norms, who have engaged in malign and malicious behavior both in their respective regions and around the world, that is, of course, a concern to us," he added.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 17, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
| 
