Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"People seem not to see that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character."

– Ralph Waldo Emerson

"I hate victims who respect their executioners."

–Jean Paul Satre

"It has been my philosophy of life that difficulties vanquish when faced boldly."

– Isaac Asimov

1. Civil defense drills to be held this week

2. Russia's Communist chief hails N. Korean troops in war against Ukraine

3. Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns

4. South Korean military hit by 9,200 cyber attacks in first half of 2025, up 45% from 2024

5. From ashes of war to arsenal of world: South Korea’s defense industry boom

6. Defense firms report strong H1 earnings on large export deals

7. Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns

8. South Korea's move to lower tensions with Kim Jong Un threatens 400,000 Christians

9. South Korea, Japan aim to show solidarity amid conflicting US signals at Tokyo summit

10. US pressures South Korea to redefine alliance, pivot away from North Korea

11. As South Korea’s population falls, its military is shrinking rapidly. Is that a problem as North Korea ramps up forces?

12. Opinion | South Korea’s peace push a chance for stability in Northeast Asia

13. Liberation is already here, but not yet – Who can help them achieve liberation? (Korea)

14. Trump played nice with Putin. Is Kim Jong-un next?

15. Editorial: Peace requires strength, not one-sided concessions

16. Seoul weighs KC-46 tankers amid US arms purchase pressure

17. The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

18. China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

19. Seoul weighs KC-46 tankers amid US arms purchase pressure

1. Civil defense drills to be held this week

Whole of society? In addition to the tyranny of proximity in Korea (nK artillery that can range Seoul and 70% of the nKPA deployed along the DMZ to Pyongyang), there also is the paradox of complacency. The ROK/US alliance has been successful in deterring a return to the Korean war for seven decades which has led some to believe that the north will not attack.

So it is good to see these drills take place and it is good they have not been canceled by the new administration out of some misguided belief that it would reduce tensions. We should never forget what Sun Tzu taught us: "Never assume the enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

Excerpt:

About 580,000 civilians from some 4,000 public institutions were scheduled to join the four-day drills, according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety.

Civil defense drills to be held this week | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Deok-Hyun Kim · August 17, 2025

SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- The government is set to hold nationwide civil defense drills this week, officials said Sunday, as it seeks to cope with new security threats, including attacks from drones.

The four-day drills, which will begin Monday, will be a major part of Ulchi defense exercises that will be held alongside the major joint military drills between South Korea and the United States.

The annual Ulchi Freedom Shield drills between South Korea and the U.S. were set to take place from Monday to Aug. 28.

About 580,000 civilians from some 4,000 public institutions were scheduled to join the four-day drills, according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety.

This year's drills will include efforts to fend off attacks from drones and cyberattacks, ministry officials said.

On Wednesday, an anti-air raid civil defense drill will be conducted nationwide, the ministry said.

Prime Minister Kim Min-seok presides over a meeting on civil defense drills on Aug. 5, 2025. (Yonhap)

kdh@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Deok-Hyun Kim · August 17, 2025

2. Russia's Communist chief hails N. Korean troops in war against Ukraine

The love letters are between more than Putin and Kim.

(LEAD) Russia's Communist chief hails N. Korean troops in war against Ukraine | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Deok-Hyun Kim · August 17, 2025

(ATTN: ADDS KCNA's English-language report)

SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- The leader of Russia's Communist Party has hailed North Korean troops deployed in Moscow's war against Ukraine in a letter sent to the North's leader Kim Jong-un, according to the North's state media Sunday.

North Korea and Russia have displayed signs of solid military cooperation in recent days in the wake of the 80th anniversary of the Korean Peninsula's liberation from Japanese colonial rule, with Kim sending a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin that bilateral relations have reached "full bloom."

Gennady Andreyevich Zyuganov, chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation's Central Committee, sent his letter to Kim to mark the anniversary, according to the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

In the letter, Zyuganov said he has highly taken note of North Korea's support for Russia's war against Ukraine, stating that their bilateral ties "will continue to grow stronger in all aspects."

Zyuganov also thanked Kim for sending North Korean troops to fight in the Kursk front-line region, saying the North's troops helped Russia "liberate" the area, according to the KCNA.

"The Communist Party of the Russian Federation expresses its sincere thanks to you for helping liberate Kursk Region," Zyuganov told Kim in the letter, the KCNA reported.

"Russia will never forget the feats of the heroic DPRK soldiers who shed their blood for the just world and the common freedom of the two countries," it said. DPRK is the acronym of North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Days before U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin held a summit in Alaska, the Russian leader briefed Kim on his planned meeting with Trump during a phone call.

Their call was yet another sign that Pyongyang and Moscow have been maintaining close military and diplomatic cooperation in line with the "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty that the leaders signed during a summit in Pyongyang in June last year.

This EPA file photo from July 5, 2025, shows Gennady Zyuganov, chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation's Central Committee, delivering a speech at a party congress. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

kdh@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Deok-Hyun Kim · August 17, 2025

3. Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns

Excerpts:

The possibility that the upcoming summit could lead to a serious clash is well understood in Seoul, based on past experience and the much-publicized Oval Office encounters between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other world leaders.

In the case of South Korea, the 1993 meeting between presidents Bill Clinton and Kim Young-sam and the 2001 summit between presidents George W Bush and Kim Dae-jung are representative examples of what could happen if things go wrong.

“In both cases, the meeting went badly because of North Korea,” recalls former US Ambassador to South Korea Thomas Hubbard, who was a key participant in both summits. “In my mind, they went badly because the Koreans failed to prepare carefully and understand where our president was.”

There are lessons for Lee Jae Myung, Hubbard told this writer in an interview. North Korea is not the problem now, as both Trump and Lee want to engage with North Korea.

“The issue this time will be security relations, host nation support, and I don’t think anyone really knows where Trump is going to come down on troop levels in Korea. Lee Jae Myung is a progressive who wants to reach out to China, but I think he is afraid Trump is going to make demands on troop reductions that will undercut him in Korea,” Hubbard said.

Trump’s belief that there is no rationale to keep US forces in South Korea is long-standing and unchanged. It is not hard to imagine a moment in the upcoming summit when Trump will once again raise this issue.

“I never took the strategic flexibility dispute seriously,” says Ambassador Hubbard, “but the danger is we push them too hard on Taiwan, on the relations with China, and at the same time raise questions about our strategic commitment.”

That could put the United States on a slippery slope toward abandoning its ally—something no South Korean leader would want to happen.

Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns - Asia Times

Trump has long backed withdrawing US troops from South Korea — a point he will likely press at upcoming summit

flip.it · by Daniel Sneider · August 15, 2025

The upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is shaping up to be a crucial moment in the more than seventy-year-long alliance.

The two leaders inked a vague agreement on trade and investment late last month, which appears to have opened the door to good relations, and President Lee has eagerly sought this meeting to strengthen his legitimacy and demonstrate his diplomatic skills.

But the summit also has the potential to imperil the alliance. While some economic issues remain—not least the US tariffs on automobiles and semiconductors—the meeting is more likely to focus on a range of contentious security issues.

These include US demands for greater South Korean contributions to defense costs and pressures for South Korea to commit to join military contingencies in Taiwan and subordinate its policies to an aggressive US stance toward China.

All of these issues are now joined under two broad policy umbrellas the Trump administration calls “alliance modernization” and “strategic flexibility.”

Both concepts embody the idea of shifting the alliance away from its sole focus on deterring North Korea toward a broader regional approach that prioritizes confrontation with China, including the use of US Forces Korea (USFK) in a Taiwan contingency. China is the number one strategic threat to the United States, and allies and partners must “do more,” according to an interim strategic guidance document the US Department of Defense issued in July.

“Strategic flexibility” means that in the event of a clash with China, US military forces based in South Korea will be withdrawn and deployed elsewhere. It demands that South Korea take on the preponderant burden of defense against potential North Korean aggression.

USFK Commander Xavier Brunson recently stated that the “USFK must be able to move to other locations and perform other missions at any time” and that South Korea must “play a great role in responding to North Korea, and USFK demonstrate flexibility to perform other missions.”

General Brunson acknowledged South Korea’s desire to connect any moves in this direction with the completion of a plan to reform the current system of operational control (OPCON), which places South Korea’s military under US command during wartime.

OPCON transfer to South Korea has been a long-standing goal for South Korea, particularly under progressive administrations. If the United States shifts its focus, then “the transition of wartime operational control in which South Korea leads the defense of the Korean Peninsula must also be expedited,” argued the progressive Kyunghyang Shinmun.

But Brunson pushed back against accelerating this process, telling reporters that “taking shortcuts to expedite the transfer of wartime operational control could jeopardize the readiness of the Korean Peninsula’s military.”

This has not stopped the Trump administration from preparing to push for South Korea’s acquiescence to their demands. An early draft of a US-South Korea agreement sets a goal for the upcoming talks to compel South Korea to “issue a political statement supporting flexibility for USFK force posture to better deter China while continuing to deter [North Korea],” according to the Washington Post.

This is to be paired with pressures to boost South Korea’s defense spending to 3.8% of GDP—up from 2.6% last year—and to vastly increase its support for the cost of basing US forces.

Defense planners linked to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have pushed more specific plans to drastically cut the number of US troops based in South Korea from the current level of 28,500 to 10,000. This would be done by effectively removing all ground troops from South Korea, leaving only air units that can easily be deployed elsewhere.

The United States has maintained the right to deploy its forces anywhere, and reductions in troop levels are hardly unprecedented. But in return, the United States accepted the South Korean stance that “it shall not be involved in a regional conflict in Northeast Asia against the will of the Korean people.”

More profoundly, the United States’ plans undermine the basic pledge to defend South Korea in a war—a commitment that underlies the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty between the two countries. The presence of US ground forces is the famously labeled “tripwire” to guarantee the US commitment.

“The continued presence of US troops at existing levels on the Korean Peninsula is more important than documents discussing ‘strategic flexibility’ or ‘modernized alliance,’” Senior Fellow at the Mansfield Foundation Bruce Klingner told this writer.

“Maintaining US troops in South Korea is a tangible manifestation of American commitment to the defense of its treaty partner. As such, they continue to be an integral part of Combined Forces Command and United Nations Command. In a conflict with North Korea, the American public and Congress would not allow a US president to abandon them, particularly after casualties.”

The Trump administration faces resistance not only from South Korea but also from Congress, where support for the US presence on the Korean Peninsula and opposition to downsizing the current troop levels remain strong, even among Republicans.

The National Defense Authorization Act, which was passed by the Senate Armed Services Committee on July 9, prohibits a reduction in the US military posture or a change in wartime OPCON until the Secretary of Defense certifies to Congress that “such action is in the national interest.”

It also directs the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Indo-Pacific Command, and USFK to carry out an independent assessment of any such changes.

The North Korea Connection

The push to refocus the US regional presence away from North Korea and toward China could potentially be linked to another sensitive issue shaping the upcoming Trump-Lee summit—relations with North Korea.

Rumors and hints of a resumption of talks between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have surfaced again in recent weeks. The Lee administration is supportive of such dialogue, as such moves are consistent with its desire to ease tensions with North Korea and revive serious engagement.

But such talks are likely to only take place if Trump is heading seriously toward the withdrawal of US forces from South Korea and acceptance of Kim’s demand that North Korea be recognized as a nuclear-weapon state.

“At some point, the ROK is going to pay a price for US-DPRK dialogue if the US under Trump decides to accept North Korea as a de facto nuclear state,” former senior Department of State official and Korea expert Evans Revere told KEI.

“The deeply progressive government in Seoul cannot possibly give the U.S. what it wants — agreement that the ROK will support the US militarily in a China- or Taiwan-related contingency and agreement to allow the US to use Korea-based forces against China,” argues Revere, who is now a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“And the US does not wish to give the ROK what it wants — an open-ended commitment that Korea-based US forces will be solely dedicated to the defense of the ROK against DPRK aggression.”

Summit disasters of the past

The possibility that the upcoming summit could lead to a serious clash is well understood in Seoul, based on past experience and the much-publicized Oval Office encounters between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other world leaders.

In the case of South Korea, the 1993 meeting between presidents Bill Clinton and Kim Young-sam and the 2001 summit between presidents George W Bush and Kim Dae-jung are representative examples of what could happen if things go wrong.

“In both cases, the meeting went badly because of North Korea,” recalls former US Ambassador to South Korea Thomas Hubbard, who was a key participant in both summits. “In my mind, they went badly because the Koreans failed to prepare carefully and understand where our president was.”

There are lessons for Lee Jae Myung, Hubbard told this writer in an interview. North Korea is not the problem now, as both Trump and Lee want to engage with North Korea.

“The issue this time will be security relations, host nation support, and I don’t think anyone really knows where Trump is going to come down on troop levels in Korea. Lee Jae Myung is a progressive who wants to reach out to China, but I think he is afraid Trump is going to make demands on troop reductions that will undercut him in Korea,” Hubbard said.

Trump’s belief that there is no rationale to keep US forces in South Korea is long-standing and unchanged. It is not hard to imagine a moment in the upcoming summit when Trump will once again raise this issue.

“I never took the strategic flexibility dispute seriously,” says Ambassador Hubbard, “but the danger is we push them too hard on Taiwan, on the relations with China, and at the same time raise questions about our strategic commitment.”

That could put the United States on a slippery slope toward abandoning its ally—something no South Korean leader would want to happen.

Daniel C. Sneider is a non-resident Distinguished Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University.

This article first appeared on KEI’s website and is republished with kind permission. KEI is registered under the FARA as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the government of the Republic of Korea. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.

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flip.it · by Daniel Sneider · August 15, 2025

4. South Korean military hit by 9,200 cyber attacks in first half of 2025, up 45% from 2024

KJU's all purpose sword must be dealt with effectively.

South Korean military hit by 9,200 cyber attacks in first half of 2025, up 45% from 2024

straitstimes.com · August 17, 2025

SEOUL – South Korea’s military said it repelled more than 9,200 hacking attempts in the first six months of the year, up about 45 per cent from the same period a year earlier, with most believed to be from North Korea.

A total of 9,262 cyber attacks targeted the South Korean military in 2025 from January to June, according to data provided to The Korea Herald Sunday by the office of Representative Yu Yong-weon of the main opposition People Power Party.

Specifically, 9,193 attempts were made to breach the military’s official homepages, while the remaining 69 were cyber intrusion attempts through e-mail hacking.

No malicious code attacks were detected during the period, according to the data.

The South Korean military said “all cyber attacks were blocked and that no damage was inflicted”, Mr Yu’s office explained.

The total number of attempted breaches – including homepage intrusions, malicious code and e-mail hacking – was tallied at 6,146 in the first half of 2021, 4,943 in 2022, 6,805 in 2023 and 6,401 in 2024.

The 2025 cyber attacks targeting the South Korean military surged, up 44.7 per cent compared with the corresponding period in 2024.

South Korea’s Cyber Operations Command informed Mr Yu’s office that many of the attacks were attributed to North Korea.

“We cannot precisely identify the actors behind the cyber intrusion attempts, but it is presumed that the majority were conducted by North Korea in the light of correlations between the countries where the routing IP addresses are located, and the IPs used for intrusion attempts,” the command said without further details.

“The military is maintaining a firm cyber readiness posture by advancing its response system,” it added.

Mr Yu underscored that the “fact that cyber intrusions targeting our military’s internet network marked an all-time high is actually a grave warning sign”.

“Only one intrusion of the military network can cause fatal damage to the command-and-control system as well as critical information assets,” he added.

“Therefore, the military authorities should raise awareness through maintenance of the security and control system, regular exercises simulating cyber intrusions and strengthening security education for military officers, and should come up with effective countermeasures.”

Mr Yu called for the government to actively revise the law, including the establishment of a control tower for cyber security under the direct supervision of President Lee Jae Myung, to respond to advanced and sophisticated cyber threats at the pan-government level.

Though fewer in number, attacks against military-adjacent companies have risen as well. The number of cyber attacks on defence industry companies reported to the military surged in 2024, according to data provided by Mr Yu’s office.

The reported cases of cyber attacks were five in 2021, two in 2022, four in 2023 and 16 in 2024.

But Mr Yu’s office noted there are limitations in identifying the total number of cyber-breach attempts on defence contractors, since they manage their systems independently under South Korea’s Defence Technology Security Act.

Article 13 of the act stipulates that the head of a targeted institution “shall establish and operate a defence technology security system in order to protect defence technology”. THE KOREA HERALD/ ASIA NEWS NETWORK

straitstimes.com · August 17, 2025

5. From ashes of war to arsenal of world: South Korea’s defense industry boom

South Korea is now a major partner in the arsenal of democracies.

South Korea is a global pivotal state that chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power, that seeks a free and open Asia-Indo-Pacific, and supports the rules based international order.

It is quite amazing what South Korea has done. The graphics and charts are at the link if they do not come through in the message.

https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10554365

From ashes of war to arsenal of world: South Korea’s defense industry boom

koreaherald.com · by Jung Min-kyung · August 14, 2025

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back delivers a speech at a signing ceremony marking South Korea's export of a second batch of K2 tanks to Poland, in Gliwice on Aug. 1. (Ministry of Defense)

As top 10 arms exporter, Seoul’s modern weapons soar globally, but guarding tech, talent remains challenge

It was 72 years ago that the bloody 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice.

Today, the once-war-ravaged nation stands among the world’s leading arms exporters, its factories turning out advanced tanks, artillery systems and fighter jets destined for battlefields far beyond the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea’s arms industry is riding a wave of global demand, but the current geopolitical climate brings both opportunity and risk. Its weapons are in high demand for their advanced technology and fast delivery, yet the country must tread carefully, as shifting alliances and regional tensions complicate the path forward.

Turning crisis into opportunity

South Korea, in recent years, has often been listed among the world’s top 10 arms exporters, in the ranks with the United States, Russia and China. It was No. 10 among global arms exporters, with a 2.2 percent share of the market in the 2020-2024 period, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The South Korean government is now setting its sights on breaking into the ranks of the world’s top four arms exporters.

“South Korea has rapidly matured into one of the world’s leading arms exporters, backed by a highly capable manufacturing base, proven platforms, and a track record of delivering on time and at scale,” Yu Ji-hoon, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, told The Korea Herald.

Yet it took decades of sustained effort to get this far.

In 1971, the United States began withdrawing troops from South Korea, reducing the number of American soldiers stationed there, even as tensions with North Korea persisted in the decades after the Korean War. The withdrawal was carried out under the Richard Nixon administration, which pushed for allied nations to strengthen their own self-defense capabilities.

This prompted South Korea to concentrate its efforts on developing and producing advanced weaponry to achieve self-reliance in defense. In 1973, the government launched a full-scale initiative to promote the heavy and chemical industries, a critical component in manufacturing weapons, according to the Korea Development Institute.

The Russian arms repayment project, a unique post-Cold War arms-for-debt arrangement between Seoul and Moscow, which started in the late 1980s, was another driving force behind the South’s defense industry. Instead of cash repayments, Russia repaid part of the debt with military equipment and related technology.

Until the mid-2010s, South Korea’s arms exports were largely concentrated in ammunition, naval vessels and some aerospace components. But its export portfolio has since started to diversify and expand.

Provider of world-class weapons

In South Korea’s expanding arms export portfolio, the K2 tank, dubbed "Black Panther” and built by Hyundai Rotem, has been a flagship item. It first entered service with the military here in 2014.

The K2 is South Korea’s most advanced main battle tank, designed for speed, precision and adaptability on the mountainous Korean Peninsula. In recent years, it has drawn major international orders, most notably from Poland, as militaries seek modern armor to replace aging Cold War units.

Two FA-50GF fighter jets fly behind a MiG-29 aircraft. (Korea Aerospace Industries)

It is central to South Korea’s largest-ever defense export deals, including the one with Poland, signed in 2022, in which Warsaw ordered 180 K2 Black Panther tanks from Hyundai Rotem in a $3.37 billion agreement. Deliveries began within months, far faster than European or American suppliers could offer.

In 2025, Warsaw followed with a $6.5 billion contract for 180 upgraded K2PL tanks, to be produced in part in Poland. The two phases, part of a broader plan involving the manufacturing of up to 1,000 K2s, have made Seoul one of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s most important new arms partners and cemented South Korea’s status as a major player in the global defense market.

Other key weapons in the portfolio are the K239 Chunmoo Multiple Rocket Launcher System, K9 self-propelled howitzer, FA-50 fighter jets and Surion helicopters.

Prominent deals made with global clients include K239 Chunmoo MLRS systems purchased by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in 2017 and 2022, respectively.

South Korea on Thursday signed a $250 million agreement to supply Vietnam with 20 K9 self-propelled howitzers, marking the weapon’s first deployment to a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc. The K9 is already in service in countries such as Turkey and Egypt.

Experts say South Korea’s growing appeal lies in its weapons’ balance of cost and capability — and in its ability to offer buyers comprehensive, tailor-made packages.

“South Korean-manufactured weapons, including the K9 self-propelled howitzer, offer proven performance, interoperability with Western systems and cost-effectiveness,” explained Yu, who is also a former professor of military strategy at South Korea's Naval Academy. “More importantly, Seoul has demonstrated willingness to localize production, transfer technology and support customers’ domestic capability development.”

South Korean arms-makers are increasingly structuring export deals to include technology transfers and licensed local production, allowing buyer nations to build part — or in some cases most — of the weapons on their soil. This approach not only sweetens contracts in competitive bidding, but it also aligns with many countries’ desire to develop their domestic defense industries. This is reflected in Hyundai Rotem’s Poland deal, as well as Hanwha Aerospace will establish joint production lines for the K9 howitzer and Chunmoo rocket system, with Romania and Poland, respectively.

“It’s a key all-in-one package deal strategy played out by South Korean arms manufacturers — providing technology transfer, customized weapons and factories for the buyers,” Choi Gi-il, a professor of military studies at Sangji University, said via phone.

Rosy future, lingering risks

South Korea’s arms exports fell to $9.5 billion last year after hitting a record high of $17.3 billion in 2022 and sliding to $13.5 billion in 2023, according to its arms procurement agency, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration. DAPA is cautiously eyeing a $23 billion goal for this year.

The agency’s ambitions may get a lift this year from favorable geopolitical winds, according to an expert. NATO allies have recently agreed to more than double their defense spending target from 2 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent by 2035, creating a surge of demand for new equipment.

K9 self-propelled howitzer (Hanwha Aerospace)

Adding to the momentum, Seoul’s latest cooperation with Washington in the shipbuilding sector, under a joint initiative known as “Make American Shipbuilding Great Again,” is expected to further bolster South Korea’s defense export prospects. Seoul has put forward sweeping proposals for joint shipbuilding projects with the US, a move that was reportedly pivotal in securing a tariff agreement with the administration of US President Donald Trump earlier this month.

“Overall, South Korea’s defense industry is likely to get a lift this year from NATO’s increase in defense spending target and Seoul’s role in building American ships, as well as cooperation on maintenance, repair and overhaul projects for the sector,” Choi of Sangji University said.

Choi added that South Korea’s existing top clients are likely to continue to make steady purchases.

“Looking at global arms exports by region, the most prominent markets include Eastern European countries facing wartime conditions and Middle Eastern nations, where unstable security situations are driving demand,” he noted.

However, the new momentum carries its own risks.

“The global trend right now resembles Trump’s reshoring policy, aimed at bringing manufacturing and supply chains — particularly in strategic industries — back to the US,” said Choi. “For South Korea, that could mean a new battle to protect its hard-won edge, guarding against the loss of technology and skilled personnel as it undertakes certain projects.”

mkjung@heraldcorp.com

koreaherald.com · by Jung Min-kyung · August 14, 2025

6. Defense firms report strong H1 earnings on large export deals

Defense firms report strong H1 earnings on large export deals | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Boram · August 17, 2025

SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's major defense firms reported record earnings in the first half of the year on the back of massive arms export deals, industry data showed Sunday.

The combined operating profits of five leading defense firms -- Hanwha Aerospace Co., LIG Nex1 Co., Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), Hyundai Rotem Co. and Hanwha Systems Co. -- reached 2.3 trillion won for the January-June period, up 161.2 percent from 880.7 billion won a year ago, according to the data from regulatory filings and financial reports.

The figure already represents 79.9 percent of their full-year operating profit of 2.88 trillion won in 2024.

Their combined sales nearly doubled to 19.2 trillion won from 9.9 trillion won a year earlier.

This photo, provided by Hanwha Aerospace Co., shows its Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Industry leader Hanwha Aerospace posted a record 1.43 trillion-won operating profit for the first half, quadrupling from 355 billion won, while its sales more than tripled to 11.8 trillion won.

LIG Nex1's operating profit soared 64.6 percent on-year to 191.2 billion won for the six-month period, with its sales jumping 35.4 percent to 1.9 trillion won.

KAI posted 132 billion won in operating profit, up 7.9 percent, but its sales fell 6.4 percent to 1.5 trillion won.

Hyundai Rotem saw its operating profit surge 192.4 percent on-year to 460.4 billion won, with 2.6 trillion won in sales, up 40 percent.

Hanwha Systems, meanwhile, reported a 29.5 percent drop in operating profit to 91.6 billion won, but sales rose 18.4 percent to 1.5 trillion won.

Industry officials attributed the robust first-half results to strong overseas demand amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Europe.

Hanwha Aerospace saw its second-quarter overseas sales jump 43 percent from a year earlier, buoyed by increased exports of defense systems, such as the Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher.

Hanwha Systems' second-quarter sales rose 11.8 percent, boosted by deliveries of multi-function radars (MFR) used in the Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile system to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

KAI posted 227.3 billion won in overseas sales for the second quarter due to exports of FA-50 fighter jets to Poland and Malaysia.

With a combined order backlog of 111.9 trillion won, market watchers expect the defense firms' growth momentum to continue in the second half.

"With continuous overseas orders for flagship products and deliveries, we have a positive outlook for the second half of the year and beyond," an industry official said on condition of anonymity.

This April 17, 2025, file photo, provided by the Air Force, shows an FA-50 fighter landing at an air base in the southwestern city of Gwangju. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

brk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Boram · August 17, 2025

7. Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns

Excerpts:

The possibility that the upcoming summit could lead to a serious clash is well understood in Seoul, based on past experience and the much-publicized Oval Office encounters between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other world leaders.

In the case of South Korea, the 1993 meeting between presidents Bill Clinton and Kim Young-sam and the 2001 summit between presidents George W Bush and Kim Dae-jung are representative examples of what could happen if things go wrong.

“In both cases, the meeting went badly because of North Korea,” recalls former US Ambassador to South Korea Thomas Hubbard, who was a key participant in both summits. “In my mind, they went badly because the Koreans failed to prepare carefully and understand where our president was.”

There are lessons for Lee Jae Myung, Hubbard told this writer in an interview. North Korea is not the problem now, as both Trump and Lee want to engage with North Korea.

“The issue this time will be security relations, host nation support, and I don’t think anyone really knows where Trump is going to come down on troop levels in Korea. Lee Jae Myung is a progressive who wants to reach out to China, but I think he is afraid Trump is going to make demands on troop reductions that will undercut him in Korea,” Hubbard said.

Trump’s belief that there is no rationale to keep US forces in South Korea is long-standing and unchanged. It is not hard to imagine a moment in the upcoming summit when Trump will once again raise this issue.

“I never took the strategic flexibility dispute seriously,” says Ambassador Hubbard, “but the danger is we push them too hard on Taiwan, on the relations with China, and at the same time raise questions about our strategic commitment.”

That could put the United States on a slippery slope toward abandoning its ally—something no South Korean leader would want to happen.

Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns - Asia Times

Trump has long backed withdrawing US troops from South Korea — a point he will likely press at upcoming summit

flip.it · by Daniel Sneider · August 15, 2025

The upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is shaping up to be a crucial moment in the more than seventy-year-long alliance.

All of these issues are now joined under two broad policy umbrellas the Trump administration calls “alliance modernization” and “strategic flexibility.”

This is to be paired with pressures to boost South Korea’s defense spending to 3.8% of GDP—up from 2.6% last year—and to vastly increase its support for the cost of basing US forces.

It also directs the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Indo-Pacific Command, and USFK to carry out an independent assessment of any such changes.

The North Korea Connection

“And the US does not wish to give the ROK what it wants — an open-ended commitment that Korea-based US forces will be solely dedicated to the defense of the ROK against DPRK aggression.”

Summit disasters of the past

There are lessons for Lee Jae Myung, Hubbard told this writer in an interview. North Korea is not the problem now, as both Trump and Lee want to engage with North Korea.

That could put the United States on a slippery slope toward abandoning its ally—something no South Korean leader would want to happen.

Daniel C. Sneider is a non-resident Distinguished Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University.

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flip.it · by Daniel Sneider · August 15, 2025

8. South Korea's move to lower tensions with Kim Jong Un threatens 400,000 Christians

Perhaps this information will have some influence with people in the Administration and those who support it.

Excerpts:

But the shutdown of radio stations is having a drastic effect on North Korea’s Christians. The Kim Jong-un regime has ruled that it is a crime to worship Christianity. Even being found with a Bible can lead to execution, normally with a bullet, sometimes reportedly after torture.

There’s no general access to the internet for ordinary citizens. The only practical way Christians can experience the Gospel and Christian teaching or thoughts is to secretly listen to a radio. But now the Stimson Center’s 38 North, a publication analyzing data on North Korea, says broadcasts into the country from the South, including broadcasts previously backed by the U.S. Agency for Global Media, have been cut back by almost 80% since May, and they advise that level could fall even further over the coming months.

South Korea's move to lower tensions with Kim Jong Un threatens 400,000 Christians

Kim dynasty threatened by Christians as they see themselves as 'supreme beings,' North Korean Christian warns

By Paul Tilsley Fox News

Published August 17, 2025 6:30am EDT | Updated August 17, 2025 7:15am EDT

foxnews.com · by Paul Tilsley Fox News

Video

Tearful Kim Jong Un mourns North Korean soldiers killed fighting for Russia in its war against Ukraine

In a state media-run special, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is seen weeping over a casket draped with the insular nation's flag. (Credit: Reuters)

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FIRST ON FOX: A move aimed at lowering tensions between South and North Korea is threatening, rather than improving, life for the estimated 400,000 Christians who live in the North. The policy has been slammed as "a catastrophic strategic mistake."

South Korea’s new President, Lee Jae-myung, ordered a reported 80% of radio broadcasts from the South, beamed into the North, to stop transmitting in May. The President also declared that loudspeakers that had been broadcasting anti-communist propaganda on the border between the two countries should be taken down.

Myung reportedly told his Cabinet in Seoul, "I hope such reciprocal measures will gradually lead to dialogue and communication" between the two Koreas, the Korea Times reported Tuesday, adding that the South Korean President wants South and North Korea to "shift from a relationship that causes harm to each other to one that is mutually beneficial."

NORTH KOREA BREAKS SILENCE ON TRUMP'S RETURN, SENDS MESSAGE FROM 'ROCKET MAN'

A South Korean Christian radio station recording material for broadcast in 2021.

In a statement reported by news website korea.net on August 5, South Korea’s defense ministry added that the new measures were "practical measures to help ease inter-Korean tensions, within a range that does not affect the military’s readiness posture."

But the shutdown of radio stations is having a drastic effect on North Korea’s Christians. The Kim Jong-un regime has ruled that it is a crime to worship Christianity. Even being found with a Bible can lead to execution, normally with a bullet, sometimes reportedly after torture.

There’s no general access to the internet for ordinary citizens. The only practical way Christians can experience the Gospel and Christian teaching or thoughts is to secretly listen to a radio. But now the Stimson Center’s 38 North, a publication analyzing data on North Korea, says broadcasts into the country from the South, including broadcasts previously backed by the U.S. Agency for Global Media, have been cut back by almost 80% since May, and they advise that level could fall even further over the coming months.

Kim Jong Un depicted riding a horse atop Mount Paektu, a sacred site in North Korea. (KCNA)

It’s also reported that it is more difficult to hear the Christian message now. Because there are fewer broadcasts still going into the North, authorities are said to be having greater success in electronically jamming them.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson expressed concern, telling Fox News Digital, "Under the leadership of President Trump and Secretary Rubio, the State Department Office of International Religious Freedom is actively looking into new ways to advance freedom of religion around the world, including in North Korea, and for North Korea’s severely persecuted Christian community. President Trump is a champion for religious freedom globally, including defending people’s ability to read the Bible and freely access religious texts."

It is impossible to over-estimate the importance of these broadcasts to Christians in North Korea, Timothy Cho, who defected from the country when he was 17, told Fox News Digital from London. Cho serves on the Secretariat of the British government’s All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, saying "we are sharing the Gospel with our brothers and sisters on the ground in North Korea. This significance we cannot compare with any amount of values, because it is hope. It is hope, and it is light and it is the message they can rely on during the darkest time inside North Korea."

BISHOP'S VILLAGE ATTACKED, 20 SLAIN AFTER RECENT TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS ON CHRISTIAN PERSECUTION

President Trump is to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un for a summit sometime next month. (Reuters)

In North Korea, Cho claimed, the ruling Kim family dynasty is portrayed collectively as gods, not only the so-called ‘Supreme Leaders," but supreme beings. He explained that’s why Christianity is so feared by the government. He added that "the most dangerous threat to North Korean authority is the claim of there being a true God who is not connected to the Kim dynasty."

"Underground Christianity provides a space for the free exchange of ideas. Christianity is a defining feature of the DNA of the Korean people," Greg Scarlatiou, President and CEO of the Washington-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, told Fox News Digital. "The Kim family regime wants none of that, having tried so hard to obliterate the true identity of the Korean people."

"The shutting down of radio stations beaming information into North Korea is a catastrophic strategic mistake. True change can't come from the Kim family. It can only come from the people of North Korea, especially Christians. And the only thing the outside world can do to help them is empowerment through information."

North Korea is at the top of Open Doors’ World Watch List for persecution of Christians again this year. Open Doors is a global organization that supports and speaks up for Christians persecuted for their faith. The report noted, "Police and intelligence agents search homes without warning. If they find Christian materials, it is considered a crime against the nation, and the whole family can be banished, imprisoned or executed. Those who use an unregistered smartphone or radio to access unapproved media are punished."

The report continued, "Christians only dare to listen to radio programs at night, hidden under blankets. Each act of worship, even though conducted by oneself, is perceived as an "act of extreme disloyalty." Citizens are trained to report anyone who might be an enemy of the regime, including family members.

A bible from North Korea, September 21, 2021. (Open Doors)

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"The national media broadcast anti-Christian content, where Christians are portrayed as evil betrayers of the nation, and missionary activities are referred to as acts of terrorism," the Open Doors report noted.

On Thursday, Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader’s sister, and Deputy Department Director of the Publicity and Information Department of the ruling Workers Party in Pyongyang, made it clear that North Korea will not lessen controls. She released a statement, monitored by a source in Seoul, reportedly saying, "We don't care whether South Korea dismantles the loudspeakers or stops the broadcasts. We have no intention of improving relations with America's loyal lackeys."

Paul Tilsley is a veteran correspondent who has reported from four continents for more than three decades. Based in Johannesburg, South Africa, he can be followed on X @paultilsley.

foxnews.com · by Paul Tilsley Fox News

9. South Korea, Japan aim to show solidarity amid conflicting US signals at Tokyo summit

Excerpts:

The summit, scheduled for August 23 in Tokyo, will be the first full bilateral meeting between South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. It comes at a time of mounting global uncertainty – from the war in Ukraine and Middle East conflicts to North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship and the weakening of traditional trade frameworks.

For Lee, who is treading a careful line between Beijing and Washington, the summit offers a chance to consolidate ties with Tokyo before his first meeting with US President Donald Trump.

For Ishiba, it will be an opportunity to demonstrate diplomatic leadership and recover from a bruising election loss in July – when his coalition failed to retain a majority in the upper house, raising doubts within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over his leadership.

South Korea

This Week in Asia Politics

South Korea, Japan aim to show solidarity amid conflicting US signals at Tokyo summit

The August 23 meeting could help dispel US concerns by showing how close Seoul and Tokyo are despite their historical disputes, analysts say

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3321937/south-korea-japan-aim-show-solidarity-amid-conflicting-us-signals-tokyo-summit?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 11:55am, 15 Aug 2025Updated: 4:26pm, 15 Aug 2025

South Korea and Japan could use their coming bilateral summit to project stability to Washington, which was simultaneously imposing high tariffs on its allies while seeking their cooperation to counter China, analysts said.

The summit, scheduled for August 23 in Tokyo, will be the first full bilateral meeting between South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. It comes at a time of mounting global uncertainty – from the war in Ukraine and Middle East conflicts to North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship and the weakening of traditional trade frameworks.

For Lee, who is treading a careful line between Beijing and Washington, the summit offers a chance to consolidate ties with Tokyo before his first meeting with US President Donald Trump.

For Ishiba, it will be an opportunity to demonstrate diplomatic leadership and recover from a bruising election loss in July – when his coalition failed to retain a majority in the upper house, raising doubts within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over his leadership.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung (front, centre) waves the national flag during a ceremony celebrating the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule in Seoul on Friday. Photo: EPA

In Friday’s Liberation Day speech marking 80 years since the end of Japanese colonial rule, Lee urged Japan to “face up to the painful history of the past” and ensure that bilateral trust “is not undermined”.

“The deeper the trust, the higher the quality of cooperation,” he said, noting that this year marked the 60th anniversary of diplomatic normalisation between the two nations.

Calling Japan “an indispensable partner in economic development”, Lee pledged to pursue “future-oriented, mutually beneficial cooperation” through shuttle diplomacy, guided by pragmatic, national interest-based policies.

He also struck a conciliatory tone on North Korea. “We respect the North’s system, will not pursue any form of absorption-based unification, and have no intention of engaging in hostile acts,” he said, vowing to take consistent steps to reduce tensions and build trust.

Both Lee and Ishiba are expected to focus on cooperation and unity, sidestepping long-standing disputes over Japan’s colonial past and territorial claims. Their only previous encounter was a brief meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit in June in Canada.

Lee’s spokeswoman, Kang Yoo-jung, said the leaders would “solidify the foundation for future-oriented cooperation” and “strengthen trilateral coordination” with the United States by holding “frank discussions on regional peace, stability and global issues”.

‘Mutually beneficial’

Notably, Lee will meet Ishiba before travelling to Washington for his first summit with Trump – breaking with the decades-old tradition of newly elected South Korean presidents making their diplomatic debut in Washington.

Analysts say the change signals an intent to share information and coordinate closely with Tokyo ahead of heightened US pressure to “modernise the alliance” to address global crises.

“It’s mutually beneficial for South Korea and Japan to send a message of stability to Washington and the world in the face of uncertainties, including high US tariffs,” Oh Seung-hee, an expert in Japanese foreign policy at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), told This Week in Asia.

“Seoul could also leverage the summit to highlight its critical role in trilateral security cooperation to maintain Indo-Pacific stability,” the assistant professor said.

Both countries are under pressure from the US to double defence spending. Washington also expects Seoul to side with it in the event of a Taiwan crisis and support expanded US troop deployments in South Korea beyond the peninsula.

South Korea removes border loudspeakers in push for peace with the North

“When Korea–Japan relations were strained, advancing the Indo-Pacific strategy was difficult,” said IFANS professor Min Jeong-hun, who specialises in South Korean–US relations. “This meeting is aimed at dispelling US concerns by showing close Seoul–Tokyo cooperation despite historical disputes.”

Yang Ki-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University, said Lee’s government faced a daunting diplomatic challenge in managing the intensifying US-China rivalry.

“Seoul is under pressure to deepen its alliance with the United States, strengthen extended nuclear deterrence, and stabilise the trilateral security framework,” Yang said. At the same time, he added, South Korea had to repair ties with China, strained under former conservative president Yoon Suk-yeol.

So far, Lee’s overtures to Pyongyang have been met with scepticism, with Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, dismissing his proposals as a “daydream”.

Meanwhile, Washington has warned Seoul against relying on the US for security while deepening economic ties with China. The Trump administration is also pressing Seoul to boost defence spending from the current 1.8 per cent of its gross domestic product to 5 per cent and increase its share of the cost for hosting 28,500 US troops.

Seoul must stabilise relations with Japan and prevent historical disputes from derailing cooperation

Yang Ki-ho, Japanese studies professor at Sungkonghoe University

“Under these circumstances, Seoul must stabilise relations with Japan and prevent historical disputes from derailing cooperation,” Yang said. “China is watching Seoul closely, but understands its limited room for manoeuvre.”

Following his meetings with Ishiba and Trump, Lee is expected to reach out to Beijing at the Apec summit in Gyeongju in October, which Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to attend.

Tokyo and Seoul are also expected to discuss Japan’s role in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade pact involving 12 economies.

Analysts say Seoul faces a dilemma as joining would expand trade opportunities but also require South Korea to open its fisheries and agricultural markets to Japanese imports, including from areas near the Fukushima nuclear disaster site.

Park Chan-kyong

Park Chan-kyong is a journalist covering South Korean affairs for the South China Morning Post. He previously worked at the Agence France-Presse's Seoul bureau for 35 years. He studied political science at Korea University and economics at the Yonsei University Graduate School

10. US pressures South Korea to redefine alliance, pivot away from North Korea

Actually perhaps the stars will align for Bridge. Since President Lee wants to reduce tensions he may shift to support for strategic flexibility for US forces as a way to try to make KJU think the US is also reducing the focus on the north.

Of course counterintuitively that might not be what KJU wants. If there is too much of a reduction of focus on the north it will undermine his legitimacy that comes with the narrative that the ROK/US alliance poses a threat to the regime with their hostile policies. KJU needs this perceived threat to justify the suffering and sacrifice of the Korean people in the north.

Excerpts:

Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of defence for policy, had earlier described South Korea as a “role model” for taking “more of the lead” in defending against the North and in its defence spending.

“We will work closely with Seoul to ensure a strategically sustainable Alliance that is ready to defend against shared threats,” Colby wrote in a social media post on Thursday last week.

In an editorial on Sunday, the conservative Dong-A Ilbo newspaper said Brunson’s comments “signal a major shift” in the USFK’s mission, and their timing – two weeks before the summit – suggested the issue would be a key agenda item.

The paper said the realignment was part of Washington’s global strategy to prioritise containing China and shift more of the security burden to allies.

“Realistically, it is difficult for South Korea alone to demand an exemption. However, Seoul cannot allow itself to be drawn into a US-China military conflict simply because of a unilateral US decision,” it wrote.

South Korea

This Week in Asia Politics

US pressures South Korea to redefine alliance, pivot away from North Korea

A top US commander’s comments on ‘strategic flexibility’ show Washington wants Seoul to help counter China and Russia, analysts say

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3321635/us-pressures-south-korea-redefine-alliance-pivot-away-north-korea?module=perpetual_scroll_1_RM&pgtype=article

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 8:00am, 13 Aug 2025Updated: 10:27pm, 13 Aug 2025

The United States has urged South Korea to “modernise” their bilateral military alliance and ensure a timely response to threats from Pyongyang and beyond the peninsula, in comments seen as pressuring Seoul to shoulder a greater security burden.

US Forces Korea (USFK) Commander General Xavier Brunson, in his first press conference with local reporters since taking command in December, said modernising the bilateral military alliance was essential to keep it “ready, relevant and able” to respond to evolving regional threats, such as from China and Russia.

“What’s being asked of Korea is to be stronger against the DPRK, that we might have the flexibility as we modernise our alliance so that we could go do other things,” Brunson told journalists on Friday last week, referring to North Korea by the abbreviated form of its official name.

He highlighted the “strategic flexibility” of US troops, citing the rare relocation of a Patriot missile battery from South Korea to the Middle East in April to support operations against Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

“That is strategic flexibility – the ability to be able to place your forces in space and time and need. That is what we seek to always be able to do,” he said.

USFK Commander General Xavier Brunson speaks at the LANPAC Symposium and Exposition in Hawaii earlier this year. Brunson wants Seoul’s military to “go do other things” with the US. Photo: US Army

Brunson’s comments come ahead of the first summit between South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and his US counterpart Donald Trump, set for August 25 in Washington.

The meeting is expected to address Washington’s push for Seoul to bolster its defence capabilities against North Korea while redefining the role of the 28,500 US troops in South Korea to focus more on countering China.

Analysts say Brunson’s remarks signal a tougher US stance on burden-sharing.

“Brunson was acting like a mouthpiece for Washington before the summit to help pile pressure on Seoul over the alliance’s modernisation,” Doo Jin-ho, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, told This Week in Asia.

Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, said Brunson was pressing Seoul “in an undiplomatic manner” to accept the strategic flexibility of US forces and alliance modernisation.

“Even though Seoul can’t reject such calls, it will push for close consultations case by case to avoid getting entangled in US-China conflicts,” he said.

A television screen shows images of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung (left) and his US counterpart Donald Trump at Seoul Railway Station on Tuesday. A summit between the leaders is set for August 25. Photo: AP

Alliance modernisation is expected to be top of the agenda at the summit, alongside US demands for increased South Korean defence spending and burden-sharing.

Doo said a joint statement could stress the need to expand the alliance’s role in the Indo-Pacific “beyond the Korean peninsula in the face of comprehensive threats”.

For Seoul, a key question would be whether the statement reaffirmed the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) for extended nuclear deterrence, including deploying US strategic assets, he said.

“Not only North Korea, but China and Russia aren’t happy about the NCG and extended nuclear deterrence,” Doo said.

“The NCG, which was established during the Biden administration, is considered a money pit. We cannot rule out the possibility that President Trump will try to neutralise it altogether.”

Jo Bi-yeon, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, predicted that the statement might simply commit to both partners’ continuing “to strengthen extended deterrence”, noting that Washington preferred rotational deployments or sea-launched nuclear weapons over forward-deploying them to South Korea.

A Chinook helicopter takes off at the US Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, earlier in August. About 28,500 US troops are stationed in South Korea. Photo: EPA/Yonhap

The Washington Post reported on Sunday that the US was considering requiring Seoul to openly support flexible USFK operations during last month’s tariff talks.

However, the prospect of expanding the USFK’s mission beyond deterring North Korea has raised fears in Seoul that its focus could be diluted and complicate its delicate balance between Washington and Beijing.

Brunson, in his remarks, acknowledged that North Korea remained “the closest alligator to the boat” but said other threats were emerging.

“We have a nuclear-armed adversary who’s north of the border, an increasing involvement of Russia along with the DPRK, and also the Chinese and the threat they pose to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said.

We have a nuclear-armed adversary who’s north of the border, an increasing involvement of Russia … and also the Chinese and the threat they pose

General Xavier Brunson, USFK commander

Brunson also warned about Korean sovereignty being “impugned” by the actions of other nations, citing joint Russian and Chinese naval manoeuvres around the peninsula.

“The Russian fleet came out and came south through the East Sea [Sea of Japan]. And what did the Chinese fleet do? They came around Korea, south of Jeju, sailed around to link up to go to Vladivostok. That’s dangerous. That’s dangerous that those two nations would come together,” he said.

Brunson emphasised that the 1953 Korea-US Mutual Defence Treaty named no specific adversaries, noting: “The governments are going to make decisions based on their own national interests – always. And so I don’t think it should be considered a foregone conclusion that we’re saying, ‘Hey, if we go to Taiwan, you’re going to Taiwan too.’ That’s not the case.”

South Korea removes border loudspeakers in push for peace with the North

Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of defence for policy, had earlier described South Korea as a “role model” for taking “more of the lead” in defending against the North and in its defence spending.

“We will work closely with Seoul to ensure a strategically sustainable Alliance that is ready to defend against shared threats,” Colby wrote in a social media post on Thursday last week.

In an editorial on Sunday, the conservative Dong-A Ilbo newspaper said Brunson’s comments “signal a major shift” in the USFK’s mission, and their timing – two weeks before the summit – suggested the issue would be a key agenda item.

The paper said the realignment was part of Washington’s global strategy to prioritise containing China and shift more of the security burden to allies.

“Realistically, it is difficult for South Korea alone to demand an exemption. However, Seoul cannot allow itself to be drawn into a US-China military conflict simply because of a unilateral US decision,” it wrote.

Park Chan-kyong

Park Chan-kyong is a journalist covering South Korean affairs for the South China Morning Post. He previously worked at the Agence France-Presse's Seoul bureau for 35 years. He studied

11. As South Korea’s population falls, its military is shrinking rapidly. Is that a problem as North Korea ramps up forces?

As Boyd said: people, ideas, hardware in that order.

Syd Seiler is correct here:

Excerpts:

Choi pointed out that South Korea spends far more on defense than the North, and conducts many military drills including with allies like the US – making it better equipped in overall combat readiness.

However, Seiler warned, at the end of the day “you still need people. There’s no robots or automation that can replace a trained soldier, airman, marine.” Easley agreed, saying South Korea’s military would still face shortages in manpower in the event of war.

And a broader challenge remains: how do authorities change cultural attitudes toward the military within South Korea?

While people can volunteer to become professional cadres who serve longer terms and train with more advanced weapons, the number of applicants has dropped steadily over the years.

High-profile cases of hazing, bullying and harassment within the South Korean military may have contributed to negative perceptions of the force.

In recent years, the government has loosened restrictions on conscripts – including allowing them to use cell phones at certain times of the day – and offered a longer civilian service alternative to conscription.

But that’s not enough, said Choi.

“We need to improve military welfare and fighting spirits as a whole,” he said – adding that supporting the current size of the military will become even harder in the coming decades as the population declines further.

“By 2040s, even maintaining 350,000 troops will be difficult, and that is why we need to establish an optimized manpower structure system … as soon as possible.”

As South Korea’s population falls, its military is shrinking rapidly. Is that a problem as North Korea ramps up forces? | CNN

CNN · by Jessie Yeung, Gawon Bae · August 15, 2025

A 2017 image released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, showing soldiers marching through Kim Il-Sung Square during a military parade in Pyongyang.

KCNA/KNS/AFP/Getty Images/File

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The writing has been on the wall for a long time: South Korea’s birth rate has dropped throughout much of the past decade, spelling trouble for the military as regional threats and global conflicts simmer.

Now, a new report has found that the number of South Korean troops declined by 20% in the past six years, in large part because of the dwindling pool of young men – reflecting the shrinking workforce and swelling elderly population in one of the world’s most rapidly aging countries.

The Defense Ministry report attributed the drop to “complex factors” including population decline and fewer men wanting to become officers due to “soldier treatment.” The report didn’t elaborate on that treatment but studies and surveys have previously highlighted the military’s notoriously harsh conditions.

As of July, the military had 450,000 troops, it said – down from 563,000 in 2019.

“If the number of standing army (members) continues to decline, there can be difficulties in securing elite manpower and limits in operating equipment,” warned the report, shared last week by lawmaker Choo Mi-ae.

The news comes at a bad time for South Korea, a key Western ally which hosts huge numbers of US troops and has a mutual defense treaty with Washington.

Just across the border, neighboring North Korea has sent tens of thousands of soldiers to fight for Russia along the front lines with Ukraine – raising fears that Moscow may share advanced military technology with Pyongyang in exchange, violating international sanctions.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024.

Gavriil Grigorov/Pool/AFP/Getty Images/File

Meanwhile, North Korea’s ruling Kim family has continued blasting hostile rhetoric, threatening to destroy South Korea with nuclear weapons if attacked and warning that Seoul remains “the enemy.”

However, experts say, that doesn’t necessarily mean North Korea’s military is better off.

The North is facing its own population woes and birth rate decline – and its technology lags far behind the South, which is now hoping to plug the shortfall in military recruits through innovation.

“South Korea is incomparably far ahead of North Korea in terms of conventional weapons,” said Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University. “We have smaller troops now, but I like to say ‘small but strong military,’ that’s what we need to become.”

Double the babies, triple the soldiers

On the surface, North Korea has a few advantages.

It’s one of the world’s most heavily militarized nations, with up to 1.3 million armed forces personnel, according to the CIA World Factbook. That’s nearly three times higher than South Korea’s troop numbers.

Those troops also serve in the military for far longer – an average of 10 years, which allows them to have higher “unit cohesion (and) knowledge of each other’s capabilities,” said Sydney Seiler, senior adviser to the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

By contrast, there’s “really not much advanced skills that you can develop” within the year and a half that most South Korean conscripts serve, Seiler said.

North Korea’s fertility rate – defined as the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime – is also far higher, at 1.77 in 2025 compared to South Korea’s rate of 0.75, UN data shows. The North has been having more babies per year than the South since 2018, said Jooyung Lee, senior economist at the Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute.

But the full picture is more complicated, experts told CNN.

For one, South Korea has a reserve force of about 3.1 million men. While their training may be basic, it would give them the numbers needed for potential warfare – and that’s not including the 28,500 US troops stationed in the country.

Pyongyang is also facing its own population problems, with its fertility rate dipping in the last few years after the pandemic. The nation’s authoritarian leader, Kim Jong Un, pointed to the problem at a national conference of mothers in 2023, urging them to “give birth to many children” as a patriotic duty.

That could bode ill for a highly isolated nation with an economy that relies on labor-intensive industries like agriculture and mining, said Lee.

It’s hard to tell how much this has impacted the North Korean military so far. But the fact that Pyongyang has sent tens of thousands of troops to fight for Russia suggests Kim “doesn’t feel concerned about not having enough soldiers on board to do the task of defending the homeland,” Seiler said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un instructs soldiers at a firing contest among army sub-units on July 23, 2025, in a photo released by the official Korean Central News Agency.

STR/AFP/KCNA VIA KNS/AFP via Getty Image

Their military has also enlisted more women to fill whatever gaps do exist. This trend began near the turn of the century after a previous dip in fertility, Lee said, with the proportion of female recruits now reaching as high as 20% by some estimates.

Many are younger women serving in the military’s communications, administrative and anti-aircraft artillery sectors, said Lee, who has interviewed many North Korean refugees who fled the country. Meanwhile, middle-aged and older women have been mobilized to fill gaps in other civilian sectors.

By contrast, women are not conscripted in South Korea – a controversial point that has stoked resentment among some young Korean men who argue their mandatory service puts them at a disadvantage in their studies, careers and personal lives.

As of 2023, volunteer females accounted for only 3.6% of the entire military, according to the Defense Ministry.

The way forward

Some experts have suggested that conscripting more women could solve South Korea’s problem, which the Defense Ministry has not ruled out. But Choi, the national security professor, argued the country needs to move away from the idea of increasing its manpower – and instead focus on advancing its technology and making the troops elite.

“I don’t personally agree with opinions that we must have a large number of troops because North Korea does,” he said. “The size of our troops has decreased and there are not many options to increase it … I think we need to take this crisis as an opportunity as South Korea is in the route of becoming a science technology powerhouse.”

On the battlefields of Europe, Ukraine has shown firsthand how an out-manned and out-gunned military can still hold back and inflict painful losses on a much larger opponent by embracing new and affordable technology.

Tools like drones and cyber-warfare could help decrease South Korea’s reliance on infantry and artillery, Seiler said. AI-assisted and autonomous systems could further boost a shrinking military, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

And a broader challenge remains: how do authorities change cultural attitudes toward the military within South Korea?

While people can volunteer to become professional cadres who serve longer terms and train with more advanced weapons, the number of applicants has dropped steadily over the years.

High-profile cases of hazing, bullying and harassment within the South Korean military may have contributed to negative perceptions of the force.

But that’s not enough, said Choi.

“By 2040s, even maintaining 350,000 troops will be difficult, and that is why we need to establish an optimized manpower structure system … as soon as possible.”

CNN · by Jessie Yeung, Gawon Bae · August 15, 2025

12. Opinion | South Korea’s peace push a chance for stability in Northeast Asia

I think this is a fantasy based on a lack of understanding of the nature, objectives,and strategy of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts:

Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korea’s leader, said in a statement last month that the Lee administration’s recent measures were “sincere efforts” to improve ties but reiterated the North’s two-state position, signalling a cautious stance. This dual message appears to be a strategic effort to avoid outright rejection of Seoul’s gestures while asserting Pyongyang’s control over the terms of engagement. In other words, North Korea might be willing to keep the door to dialogue open while insisting on setting the conditions.

South Korea dismantling its loudspeaker broadcast facilities near the DMZ marks a tangible break from hostile practices and could serve as an initial step towards rebuilding trust. Its engagement is not just a prelude to renewed inter-Korean talks but also represents an experimental model to break the vicious cycle of conflict and reduce regional insecurity. The Korean peninsula stands at a pivotal juncture, with a chance to shift from temporary tensions to a structural framework for peaceful coexistence.

The Korean peninsula peace and security cooperation initiative under discussion is more than an inter-Korean project; it is a critical test case for conflict-prevention diplomacy in East Asia. Before this quiet shift loses momentum, key stakeholders – including the US, China and Japan – must offer active support and translate that support into action.

Korean peninsula

Opinion Asia Opinion

Lee Min-Yong

Opinion | South Korea’s peace push a chance for stability in Northeast Asia

South Korea dismantling loudspeaker facilities near the DMZ is a break from hostile practices and could start a process of rebuilding trust

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3321665/south-koreas-peace-push-chance-stability-northeast-asia

Lee Min-Yong

Published: 5:30am, 15 Aug 2025

With wars dragging on in Europe and the Middle East, the risk of conflict spilling over to Taiwan and the Korean peninsula is coming into sharper focus. Against this backdrop, it is a welcome development that South Korea’s new government has signalled its commitment to easing inter-Korean tensions.

Reflecting the maxim of “the best victory is to win without fighting”, the South Korean government, inaugurated in June, has made peacebuilding the core of its North Korea policy. Its first step was halting propaganda leaflets and loudspeaker broadcasts aimed at the North, followed by dismantling related facilities, to which North Korea responded by ending its own broadcasts, briefly easing tensions.

Inter-Korean relations have long cycled between retaliatory and conditional, quid pro quo engagements. In this context, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s administration is seen as creating a new opening for reconciliation and cooperation. While ideological differences persist in how successive South Korean governments have approached North Korea, both progressive and conservative administrations have consistently prioritised stability and peace on the Korean peninsula.

Conservatives have focused on peacekeeping and progressives on peacebuilding. The current administration’s approach emphasises easing tensions and building trust based on coexistence. Unlike past peace processes that relied heavily on formal negotiations, this initiative seeks to foster trust through parallel and multilayered channels.

Past progressive administrations achieved meaningful cooperation through inter-Korean summits, the Kaesong industrial complex and rail reconnections. Though suspended, these projects could still spark broader change.

A 2018 comprehensive military agreement, aimed at preventing clashes in the demilitarised zone (DMZ), has received renewed attention amid discussion of a Korean peninsula peace and security cooperation initiative. The government is also reportedly considering long-term ideas – such as an inter-Korean basic agreement as a treaty between states – that some see as moving towards greater recognition of North Korea. However, these are not confirmed policies.

South Korea removes border loudspeakers in push for peace with the North

South Korea’s tension-reduction strategy carries regional significance. Conflict spilling over from Europe or the Middle East into Taiwan or the Korean peninsula remains a risk. East Asia lacks strong institutions and relies on a fragile balance of power. The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia underscores growing links between European and East Asian crises. Pyongyang’s military cooperation with nuclear-armed Russia increases the possible risk to the Korean peninsula.

Potential changes to the US-South Korea alliance since US President Donald Trump took office have fuelled concerns that weaker American deterrence could allow China and Russia’s influence to expand. In this transition, a South Korean initiative could become a regional platform for war-prevention diplomacy.

The prospects for advancing a Korean peninsula peace and security cooperation initiative remain open. One positive signal that US diplomacy remains a viable option is Trump leaving the door open for further dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The chance for renewed engagement remains alive as long as this stance continues. Even if talks do not resume immediately, the US has more flexibility to pursue an engagement strategy over a hardline approach.

A South Korea-led platform involving the US, Japan and China – for example, a humanitarian aid package for North Korea – could offer a realistic and constructive alternative.

If an engagement policy is pursued, priority should be given to providing urgent medical and food assistance to the North Korean people before any denuclearisation negotiations begin. South Korea should formulate practical support measures as part of a broader initiative and promote cooperation with the international community.

China is likely to welcome such an initiative as it aligns with both its strategic interests and its long-standing mediating role towards Pyongyang. Beijing has quietly played this role since the Korean war, and it appears increasingly wary of Pyongyang’s deepening ties with Moscow after the recent security treaty between North Korea and Russia. Stability on the Korean peninsula remains central to China’s security, making this a moment for Beijing to assume a more proactive and constructive role.

While Russia has drawn North Korea into its war effort in Ukraine, it is unlikely to provoke conflict on the Korean peninsula at this time. It is unlikely that Moscow is prepared to simultaneously engage in full-scale wars in both Europe and Northeast Asia, even with the automatic intervention clause in its treaty with North Korea.

North Korea hails soldiers in Russia as ‘heroes’ in first official statement

Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korea’s leader, said in a statement last month that the Lee administration’s recent measures were “sincere efforts” to improve ties but reiterated the North’s two-state position, signalling a cautious stance. This dual message appears to be a strategic effort to avoid outright rejection of Seoul’s gestures while asserting Pyongyang’s control over the terms of engagement. In other words, North Korea might be willing to keep the door to dialogue open while insisting on setting the conditions.

South Korea dismantling its loudspeaker broadcast facilities near the DMZ marks a tangible break from hostile practices and could serve as an initial step towards rebuilding trust. Its engagement is not just a prelude to renewed inter-Korean talks but also represents an experimental model to break the vicious cycle of conflict and reduce regional insecurity. The Korean peninsula stands at a pivotal juncture, with a chance to shift from temporary tensions to a structural framework for peaceful coexistence.

The Korean peninsula peace and security cooperation initiative under discussion is more than an inter-Korean project; it is a critical test case for conflict-prevention diplomacy in East Asia. Before this quiet shift loses momentum, key stakeholders – including the US, China and Japan – must offer active support and translate that support into action.

Lee Min-Yong

Lee Min-Yong is a visiting professor in the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University, South Korea and a former adviser (foreign affairs and national security) to the Presidential Office of the Republic of Korea.

13. Liberation is already here, but not yet – Who can help them achieve liberation? (Korea)

This is a Google translation of a Korean article.

It makes the point that the South has been liberated but the north has not and asks how you can seek reconciliation with a regime that distorts history the way the Kim family regime does. Note also the comments on VOA.

Photos are at the link.

Liberation is already here, but not yet

Who can help them achieve liberation?

https://brunch.co.kr/@rebuilder/12

William's Gift

10 hours ago

Both South and North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of liberation with great fanfare. However, the meaning is entirely different. In North Korea, liberation is called "Fatherland Liberation Day," emphasizing only the liberation achieved through Kim Il-sung's armed struggle against Japan. They don't teach the sacrifices of independence fighters or how Japan surrendered in World War II. Liberation is simply a historical event dedicated to the idolization of Kim Il-sung.

Even the Korean War is taught by North Koreans as a "US invasion," and the anniversary of the armistice agreement is celebrated as "Victory Day in the Fatherland Liberation War."

In his celebratory address, President Lee Jae-myung emphasized Liberation Day as "the day we regained the freedom and right to determine our future and choose our own lives," and listed the Republic of Korea's achievements over the past 80 years. Listening to his speech, I was reminded of the cries of a North Korean defector I met in China 25 years ago.

“Even during the Japanese colonial period, we didn't starve like this. We didn't have this much freedom.”

According to the United Nations, North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, suffering from chronic food shortages, and is virtually the only country in the world where even the most basic freedoms stipulated in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights are not guaranteed. Yet, the Kim regime completely denies this and distorts modern history, including liberation and the war.

Ironically, the current administration is pursuing reconciliation and cooperation with North Korea. Former Unification Minister Chung Dong-young stated, "Modern history must be taught not as an option, but as a necessity," and that truth and direction must be found within history. But is true cooperation possible with a system that distorts history?

In his commemorative address, the president stated, "We can no longer tolerate acts that deny the history of the independence struggle and insult independence activists." So, who are the forces most likely to deny and distort the history of the independence struggle?

If we truly desire reconciliation and peace with North Korea, shouldn't we first share a correct view of history, as Minister Jeong suggested? Above all, shouldn't we convey the truth to the North Korean people?

Korean employees who participated in the Voice of America (VOA) Korean-language broadcasts, which began in 1942 during the Japanese colonial period, recalled, "We broadcasted with the determination to die, as if we were fighting for independence." At the time, everyone joined their voices, yearning for independence. Yet, even today, countless North Koreans remain ignorant of freedom, living lives even more difficult than during the colonial era.

South Korea has already enjoyed liberation. But North Korea hasn't yet. Who can help them achieve liberation?

14. Trump played nice with Putin. Is Kim Jong-un next?

Playing nice is not the point. We need to execute a superior political warfare strategy to counter Kim Jong Un's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.

Sunday

August 17, 2025

dictionary + A - A

Trump played nice with Putin. Is Kim Jong-un next?

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-08-17/national/diplomacy/Trump-played-nice-with-Putin-Is-Kim-Jongun-next/2377466

Published: 17 Aug. 2025, 19:03

Updated: 17 Aug. 2025, 19:56

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, stands next to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

U.S. President Donald Trump drew criticism after signaling support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cease-fire proposal during talks in Alaska on Friday, a move that critics said legitimized Russia's invasion of Ukraine and risked shielding North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from accountability for sending troops to the conflict.

Foreign media reported on Sunday that Trump appeared receptive to Putin’s plan to freeze the front lines if Ukraine ceded the Donbas region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk.

In letter to Putin, US first lady asks him to consider the children in push to end war in Ukraine

Trump tells Zelensky that Putin wants more of Ukraine, urges Kyiv make a deal

North Korea's Kim, in letter to Putin, says bilateral ties have reached 'full bloom'

The arrangement appears to have sidelined the issue of Russian war crimes. The move comes despite the International Criminal Court having issued an arrest warrant for Putin in 2023 for the abduction of Ukrainian children.

“Most of all, gone was any hint of Mr. Putin’s status as an international pariah, a leader who could not land in most European countries for fear that he might be detained by officials acting on the arrest warrant issued against him for how the war in Ukraine was conducted,” David Sanger, a national security correspondent for the New York Times, said in an article on Friday.

“To those who have followed Mr. Trump’s diplomacy, this meeting seemed to have a natural comparison: Mr. Trump’s first encounter seven years ago with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, which was marked by embraces, handshakes, letters testifying to their mutual admiration — and a continued buildup of the North’s nuclear arsenal.”

Observers warned that Kim, who provided Russia with more than 12,000 troops and large amounts of weapons and supplies, may also evade accountability.

A North Korean flag flies over the nation's embassy in Moscow on Oct. 31, 2024. [AFP/YONHAP]

The Kremlin said Putin spoke with Kim by phone on Tuesday, three days before the summit with Trump, to share information. Analysts said the outcome of the talks could directly affect whether North Korea deploys additional forces, shifts its military role or withdraws troops.

“Punishing Kim and Putin was unlikely to be on the agenda in Alaska,” said Jeh Sung-hoon, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “The summit instead reinforced the idea that North Korea and Russia view each other as partners, and there is little chance their relationship will loosen anytime soon.”

Even if the war in Ukraine stops, the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty” signed between Pyongyang and Moscow in June 2024 remains valid. The pact includes a mutual defense clause, marking the first time Russia has formally committed to possible military intervention on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea used the deployment to gain experience in modern warfare, test weapons intended for use against South Korea and secure Russian military technology, including air defense systems, in return.

Analysts warned that if accountability for the troop dispatch is ignored, Pyongyang could expand its illicit military cooperation with other countries. With Trump showing little interest, prospects for addressing Russian war crimes through the UN Security Council also appear slim, given Russia’s permanent seat and the likelihood that Washington will not push aggressively.

Russia has already undermined international oversight, as Moscow, in March 2024, blocked the mandate of a United Nations expert panel that monitored sanctions on Pyongyang. Despite sanctions violations, Kim and Putin openly acknowledged North Korea’s troop deployment and highlighted their alliance.

On Friday, Korea’s Liberation Day, Russian Communist Party Chairman Gennady Zyuganov sent a congratulatory message to Kim, thanking him for dispatching troops, the Korean Central News Agency reported.

Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin visited Pyongyang on Thursday and said, “We will forever remember the courage and dedication of the North Korean soldiers.”

Kim may travel to Vladivostok next month for the Eastern Economic Forum, where he could hold another summit with Putin for the first time in two years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome outside of Tsiolkovsky, in the far eastern Amur region of Russia on Sept. 13, 2023. [AP/YONHAP]

North Korea’s muted response to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s Liberation Day speech on Friday, in which he said Seoul “will not pursue any form of unification by absorption and assert that we have no intention of engaging in hostile acts,” was seen as a sign of confidence backed by Russia.

The National Intelligence Service told lawmakers on July 30 that “North Korea, emboldened by Russia’s backing, sees a more favorable strategic environment and is likely to demand greater concessions from the South.”

Critics faulted Seoul for a weak response to the North's troop deployment. Since martial law was declared on Dec. 3, 2024, and political turmoil followed, South Korea could not respond to summits attended by heads of state, and the government has struggled to react quickly to matters such as North Korea's troop deployment.

Lee himself has avoided directly criticizing North Korea-Russia military cooperation even during his presidential campaign. Then-candidate Lee said in a televised debate on May 27 that “there is no need to be unnecessarily hostile” toward Russia and did not even mention North Korea’s ties.

After a meeting between Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, the State Department expressed “serious concerns” about strengthening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. However, South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs omitted Washington's position in a press release.

“We must clearly state that the growing alignment between North Korea and Russia is unacceptable and a violation of international norms,” said Eom Gu-ho, professor of Russian studies at Hanyang University. “At the same time, we need a two-track strategy of recognizing the threat to South Korean security while seeking to repair ties with Moscow.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.

BY PARK HYUN-JU, SHIM SEOK-YONG [paik.jihwan@joongang.co.kr]

15. Editorial: Peace requires strength, not one-sided concessions

One sided concessions, otherwise known as appeasement, does not work. Ever.

Conclusion:

Conciliatory steps toward North Korea can help encourage change and openness. Concessions, however, must be gradual and guided by Pyongyang’s response. At a time when the United States is shifting its role in Korea to counter China and even suggesting troop cuts, South Korea must not weaken its deterrence. The peace Lee stresses rests not on appeasement or disarmament but on deterrence sustained through continued training.

Editorial: Peace requires strength, not one-sided concessions

https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2025/08/18/QQLSOQLTVJEI7CLDCPPFCKKT3M/

By The Chosunilbo

Published 2025.08.17. 09:00

President Lee Jae-myung delivers a speech at the 80th Liberation Day ceremony at the Sejong Center for the Performing Arts in Seoul on Aug. 15, 2025./Yonhap

In his 80th Liberation Day address, President Lee Jae-myung said he would “preemptively and gradually restore the Sept. 19 military agreement to prevent clashes and build military trust” with North Korea, adding that Seoul would “wait patiently and hope” for a reciprocal response. He made clear that South Korea would not pursue any form of absorption-based unification or engage in hostile acts. On North Korea’s denuclearization, he offered only a broad remark, saying it “cannot be resolved quickly, but we will seek clues through international cooperation.”

Since taking office, Lee halted loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflet campaigns toward the North and ended 50 years of radio broadcasts aimed at North Korean citizens. The government said these steps answered North Korea’s “preemptive actions,” although in reality Pyongyang had only stopped its own broadcasts while refusing contact with the South. Confusion deepened when Seoul announced that North Korea had dismantled its loudspeakers after South Korea removed 24 front-line units. Pyongyang immediately denied it.

Restoring the Sept. 19 agreement, which restricts military exercises near the Demilitarized Zone, is a far more complex matter than halting broadcasts. The military can deter threats by continuing exercises regardless of North Korean provocations. The Moon administration’s Sept. 19 agreement effectively shackled South Korea’s forces by moving K9 self-propelled howitzers from Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong islands to the mainland for training, which weakened the Marine Corps’ defensive capability.

North Korea violated the agreement repeatedly, opening coastal artillery more than 3,400 times, conducting live-fire drills, and launching ballistic missiles. However, the Moon administration overlooked these breaches, saying the accord did not explicitly ban ballistic missiles.

Despite Lee’s pledge to restore the Sept. 19 agreement, the government held a maritime live-fire exercise in June, firing 200 rounds from K9 howitzers. After Kim Yo-jong criticized joint U.S.-South Korea drills, nearly half of the 40 planned outdoor maneuvers were postponed, officially due to extreme heat. This fueled concern over a return to the Moon administration’s four-year halt of live-fire training in favor of computer simulations.

Conciliatory steps toward North Korea can help encourage change and openness. Concessions, however, must be gradual and guided by Pyongyang’s response. At a time when the United States is shifting its role in Korea to counter China and even suggesting troop cuts, South Korea must not weaken its deterrence. The peace Lee stresses rests not on appeasement or disarmament but on deterrence sustained through continued training.

16. Seoul weighs KC-46 tankers amid US arms purchase pressure

Seoul weighs KC-46 tankers amid US arms purchase pressure

KC-46 deal resurfaces while AI weapons emerge as alternative for South Korea

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/08/18/HJK6ATGQD5BKRMXYGMBGY5V77I/

By Kim Ji-hwan,

Kim Seo-young

Published 2025.08.17. 11:30

Updated 2025.08.17. 11:41

As President Lee Jae-myung prepares to meet U.S. President Donald Trump later this month, officials expect the U.S. to push for higher defense spending and the purchase of American-made weapons. As the government reviews its strategy, experts urge prioritizing next-generation weapons integrated with artificial intelligence (AI).

Industry sources on Aug. 17 suggested that if the U.S. requests the purchase of its own weapon systems, South Korea could consider acquiring the KC46 aerial refueling tanker. The Air Force is currently preparing a second procurement phase through 2030, planning to spend 1.2 trillion won ($863 million) to acquire two additional tankers.

The second aerial refueling project was approved by the Defense Acquisition Program Promotion Committee in December 2022. Following a recent feasibility study, the procurement is now moving toward a formal bidding process. The KC46 is the U.S. Air Force’s main tanker, with a total of 179 planned, while Japan has already acquired three.

Boeing’s KC46 aerial refueling tanker. /Chosun DB

South Korea’s Air Force previously purchased four tankers in 2019 under the first phase of its program, selecting the European Airbus A330 MRTT over Boeing’s KC46, which was still under development at the time.

An industry official noted, “Given the scale and necessity of the project, South Korea’s and the U.S. government’s interests align. The Air Force previously considered this model, so our side could even initiate the purchase request.”

In contrast, the U.S. Apache (AH-64) attack helicopter, once under consideration by the Army, is seen as unlikely. The Army acquired 36 units in the first phase of procurement in 2017, but the second phase was canceled by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in May, with the National Assembly cutting the budget entirely.

U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone fires a Hellfire missile. /Chosun DB

The primary reason was the unit cost, which rose to 73.3 billion won per helicopter from 41.1 billion won in the first phase, alongside high operational costs for missiles and other systems. A former military official said, “South Korea has eliminated its need for Apaches, and reintroducing a requirement would involve multiple procedures. The U.S. is unlikely to push for Apache sales.”

The government is reportedly reviewing multiple options in preparation for U.S. demands. Experts argue that negotiations should focus on acquiring advanced systems like AI-enabled drones, including the MQ-9 Reaper and Anduril’s Fury, rather than older, costly-to-operate platforms.

A military official said, “With the Trump administration pushing for higher defense spending, adopting next-generation weapon systems would ultimately benefit our military more.”

17. The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

Read Olivia Enos' entire essay here: https://icks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IJKS-Enos-Vol-26-No-1-Final-Uploaded.pdf

The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

Author: Olivia Enos

https://icks.org/journal/volume-xxvi-number-1-spring-summer-2025/

This article argues that the United States and South Korea should seize the opportunity presented by the United Nations’ forthcoming update to its 2014 Commission of Inquiry (COI) report to re-center international attention on the dire human rights situation in North Korea. While the COI previously established that crimes against humanity were being perpetrated by the Kim regime, this article contends that atrocity crimes—including genocide—may also be ongoing, particularly against Christians and other vulnerable groups. Drawing on defector testimony, legal frameworks, and recent precedent from U.S. atrocity determinations (e.g., on Uyghurs, Rohingya, and Yazidis), the article urges Washington and Seoul to issue their own atrocity determinations to galvanize diplomatic action, promote accountability, and provide relief to survivors. It outlines how human rights violations are intertwined with the regime’s stability and weapons development, and argues that an integrated strategy linking security and human rights is essential. The article concludes with policy recommendations, including targeted sanctions, refugee protections, enhanced information access, and closure of political prison camps, offering a roadmap for a more principled and effective North Korea policy.

(Pages 75 – 99)

READ FULL ARTICLE

18. China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

Read Gordon Chang's full essay here: https://icks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IJKS-Chang-Vol-26-No-1-Final-Uploaded.pdf

China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

Author: Gordon G. Chang

https://icks.org/journal/volume-xxvi-number-1-spring-summer-2025/

China, at sea and at land crossings, is facilitating commerce with North Korea that clearly violates U.N. Security Council sanctions. Beijing is also interfering in sanctions-enforcement activity in its peripheral seas. Hong Kong, due to Beijing’s policies, has become a major hub of illicit activities. China had done its best to disrupt the work of the U.N.’s Panel of Experts. American sanctions policy has been ineffective, in large part because Washington policymakers do not understand China’s top-down communist system. China, despite what many think, is not deeply concerned about the growing Russia-North Korea relationship. Beijing may have even masterminded the North’s recent sales of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine and its sending of soldiers to the war there.

(Pages 100 – 118)

READ FULL ARTICLE

19. The UN ECOSOC NGO Committee and Civil Society Participation in the UN Process

Read Greg Scarlatoiu's entire essay here: https://icks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IJKS-Scarlatoiu-Vol-26-No-1-Final-Uploaded.pdf

The UN ECOSOC NGO Committee and Civil Society Participation in the UN Process

Author: Greg Scarlatoiu

https://icks.org/journal/volume-xxvi-number-1-spring-summer-2025/

This article argues that while UN action on North Korean human rights has centered on the Human Rights Council, General Assembly, and Security Council, the role of the UN Committee on NGOs—gatekeeper to Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) consultative status—remains undeservedly overlooked. Dominated by anti-human rights undemocratic regimes, the Committee often blocks human rights defenders from participating in the UN system. Despite this, a few organizations—the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), the People for Successful Corean Reunification (PSCORE), the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB), and Christian Solidarity Worldwide—have managed to secure consultative status thanks to determined advocacy by like-minded states such as the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and South Korea. These cases, however, remain exceptions. The article contends that a more strategic, long-term effort is needed to diversify Committee membership by encouraging democratic states like South Korea and Japan to seek seats, replacing members with poor human rights records. This endeavor will take more than just international cooperation among the like-minded. Overcoming internal bureaucratic resistance and prioritizing resources for NGO Committee membership would expand access for credible NGOs, strengthen international civil society, and ultimately increase pressure on the North Korean regime to address its human rights abuses.

(Pages 119 – 132)

READ FULL ARTICLE

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

Company Name | Website

Civil defense drills to be held this week | Yonhap News Agency

(LEAD) Russia's Communist chief hails N. Korean troops in war against Ukraine | Yonhap News Agency

Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns - Asia Times

South Korean military hit by 9,200 cyber attacks in first half of 2025, up 45% from 2024

From ashes of war to arsenal of world: South Korea’s defense industry boom

Defense firms report strong H1 earnings on large export deals | Yonhap News Agency

Trump-Lee summit may renew Seoul's abandonment concerns - Asia Times

South Korea's move to lower tensions with Kim Jong Un threatens 400,000 Christians

Kim dynasty threatened by Christians as they see themselves as 'supreme beings,' North Korean Christian warns

South Korea, Japan aim to show solidarity amid conflicting US signals at Tokyo summit

The August 23 meeting could help dispel US concerns by showing how close Seoul and Tokyo are despite their historical disputes, analysts say

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3321937/south-korea-japan-aim-show-solidarity-amid-conflicting-us-signals-tokyo-summit?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

‘Mutually beneficial’

US pressures South Korea to redefine alliance, pivot away from North Korea

A top US commander’s comments on ‘strategic flexibility’ show Washington wants Seoul to help counter China and Russia, analysts say

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3321635/us-pressures-south-korea-redefine-alliance-pivot-away-north-korea?module=perpetual_scroll_1_RM&pgtype=article

As South Korea’s population falls, its military is shrinking rapidly. Is that a problem as North Korea ramps up forces? | CNN

Double the babies, triple the soldiers

The way forward

Opinion | South Korea’s peace push a chance for stability in Northeast Asia

South Korea dismantling loudspeaker facilities near the DMZ is a break from hostile practices and could start a process of rebuilding trust

Liberation is already here, but not yet

Trump played nice with Putin. Is Kim Jong-un next?

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North Korea's Kim, in letter to Putin, says bilateral ties have reached 'full bloom'

Editorial: Peace requires strength, not one-sided concessions

Seoul weighs KC-46 tankers amid US arms purchase pressure

The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

The UN ECOSOC NGO Committee and Civil Society Participation in the UN Process