Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves."

– Carl Jung

"Change your life today. Don't gamble on the future; act now, without delay."

– Simone de Beauvoir

Western thinking has become conservative; the world situation should stay as it is at any cost; there should be no changes. This debilitating dream of a status quo is the symptom of a society that has come to the end of its development."

– Alexander Solzhenitsyn

1. Spate of defections show Kim Jong-un regime is crumbling: refugees, experts

2. Strengthening the United Nations Command in Korea to Counter Authoritarian Collusion

3. Beyond the Surveys: Unpacking South Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions Amid Political and Domestic Realities

4. N. Korean children not vaccinated against polio for 3rd straight year in 2023: WHO

5. Unification minister urges NK to respond to proposal of forming inter-Korean working group

6. US expected to reaffirm NK denuclearization after rival parties make no mention of it: unification minister

7. Exclusive: Elite defections surge 2.5 times under Kim Jong-un

8. North Korean athletes' victory selfies raise red flags in Pyongyang

9. North Korean soldier defects on foot across fortified border to South

10. LA Koreans Protest Against Repatriation of North Korean Defectors in Front of Chinese Consulate General

11. Unification Minister: “North Korean Residents’ ‘Right to Access Information’ Expanded by Applying Cutting-edge Technology”

12. “In order to achieve North Korea’s denuclearization, we must first pursue a ‘nuclear freeze’”

13. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Heatwave Grips North Korea: Residents Sleep Outdoors Amid Lack of Air Conditioning and Power Shortages

14. Yoon orders ROK military to deter North Korea from ‘communizing’ South

15. Seoul defends all-male speaker lineup for upcoming forum on North Korea

16. Seoul minister denies new policy seeks unification with North Korea ‘by force’

1. Spate of defections show Kim Jong-un regime is crumbling: refugees, experts

Are we preparing for all contingencies?

The “Big 5” for the Korean Peninsula

1. War - must deter, and if attacked defend, fight, and defeat the nKPA.

2. Regime Collapse - must prepare for the real possibility and understand it could lead to war and both war and regime collapse could result in resistance within the north.

3. Human Rights and Crimes Against Humanity - (gulags, external forced labor, etc) must focus on as it is a threat to the Kim Family Regime and undermines domestic legitimacy - it is a moral imperative and a national security issue. KJU denies human rights to remain in power.

4. Asymmetric threats (provocations, proliferation, nuclear program, missile, cyber, and SOF) subversion of ROK, and global illicit activities.

5. Unification - the biggest challenge and the solution.

We should never forget that north Korea is master of denial and deception in all that it does from military operations to strategy to diplomatic negotiations

Regime Collapse: loss of central governing effectiveness by the party combined with loss of coherency and support of the military

Regime collapse - conflict, mother of all humanitarian disasters, could lead to war

Thesis: Regime Collapse Catastrophic – Must not only plan but prepare
What is going to happen on the Korean Peninsula?
This is the question that plagues policy makers, strategists, and military planners – Strategic Planning Paralysis
If this question can be answered, the next question is: How will the ROK, US and the international community address what happens on the Korean Peninsula?
Main Thesis: The only way to end the nK nuclear program and end the crimes against humanity being committed by the Kim Family Regime against the Korean people living in the north is to achieve Korean unification

Spate of defections show Kim Jong-un regime is crumbling: refugees, experts

The Korea Times · August 21, 2024

A new monument that commemorates North Korean defectors who have died while escaping from the repressive regime stands in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 1. Courtesy of Ministry of Unification

Residents escape economic hardship; High-level defections also on rise

By Kwak Yeon-soo

A North Korean soldier defected to South Korea, Tuesday, by walking across the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) on the heavily fortified inter-Korean border. The defection occurred about two weeks after a North Korean resident crossed the maritime border in the Han River estuary on the west coast.

In recent years, North Korea's elite, including high-level diplomats stationed abroad, have also defected to the South. The latest defector, Ri Il-gyu, fled from Cuba to South Korea in November of last year.

North Korea watchers and defectors residing in South Korea say these defections might indicate increasing economic hardship in the North and a growing desire for freedom among its residents, driven by access to information about the outside world.

A loudspeaker for propaganda broadcasts is set up in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, June 6. Newsis

They suggested that the recent defections by the soldier and resident may have been influenced by South Korea’s propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflets, which provide information about the outside world and the reality of the North Korean regime.

Since July 19, South Korea has been conducting full-scale anti-Pyongyang broadcasts through its border loudspeakers, playing news and K-pop music, in response to North Korea's repeated launches of balloons carrying trash.

“I believe a lot of North Koreans have aspirations for a better future. Many defect in search of freedom and for economic reasons," Moon Seong-mook, the chief of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said. "Loudspeaker broadcasts have proven to be successful in persuading North Koreans to defect by exposing the reality of North Korea and sharing what life in South Korea is like. After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un came to power, he’s been so absorbed in developing nuclear and missile programs that he failed to look after his people.”

In recent years, an increasing number of North Korean defectors have cited aspiration for freedom as the primary reason for their escape, surpassing food shortages as the main motivation, according to a survey by the Korea Hana Foundation, an agency affiliated with the Ministry of Unification.

Kim Seung-chul, president of North Korea Reform Radio who defected from the North in 1993, said President Yoon Suk Yeol’s policy of embracing defectors has stirred up complex feelings in the minds of North Koreans.

“South Korea celebrated its first North Korean Defectors’ Day on July 14, and President Yoon’s outreach to 26 million North Korean citizens in his speech is affecting the minds of North Koreans. The loudspeaker campaign and anti-Pyongyang leaflets have also been effective in bringing about change,” Kim said.

Socio-economic factors, such as economic hardship and political oppression, continue to drive North Koreans to flee their country. In the first half of the year, the number of North Korean defectors arriving in South Korea reached 105, a slight increase from 99 in the previous year.

“Although North Korea claims that its economy is back to pre-pandemic levels, the economic and livelihood difficulties of North Koreans deepened. Kim Jong-un has urged its people to fight against anti-socialism without providing enough to feed them. Soldiers are being mobilized to help construct factories in provinces as part of the regime’s 20x10 rural development policy. There must be growing discontent over the repressive regime,” Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said.

Ri Il-gyu, a former senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba who recently defected to South Korea, poses during an interview with Yonhap News Agency, July 23. Yonhap

Another notable trend is the rising number of defections among members of North Korea’s ruling elite. The defection of Ri, who made headlines last month, was particularly significant as he was the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to defect to South Korea since 2016.

The number of highly educated North Koreans with professional jobs escaping to South Korea has increased. In 2023, about 10 North Koreans identified as members of the country's elite resettled in South Korea, a higher number than in recent years, according to the Unification Ministry. A ministry official attributed the rise in high-level defections to North Korea's pandemic-related economic difficulties and its efforts to strengthen state control over its people.

Ahn Chan-il, a defector-turned-researcher who runs the World Institute for North Korea Studies, said the surge in defections indicates the weakening of the Kim regime.

“It reveals that the Kim Jong-un regime is breaking down and that there is no hope left inside. The treatment of ruling elites has deteriorated over the years, leading them to become disillusioned with the regime,” Ahn said.

Ahn noted that North Koreans now have easier access to information from the outside world. “Approximately 7 million North Koreans have mobile phones these days, giving them greater access to external information. There is increasing discontent among students and diplomats abroad,” he added.

Kim Seung-chul said there is no longer an idolization of Kim Jong-un, noting that the North Korean leader has been struggling to contain the dissatisfaction of residents suffering from recent floods.

“Kim Jong-un recently announced that thousands of flood-affected people would be relocated to Pyongyang until new homes are built. However, his actions and words cannot alleviate the anxiety and anger that residents are currently experiencing. This indicates a decline in his status as the sole leader. There is no longer any idolization of Kim Jong-un,” he said.

He also explained that even North Korean diplomats stationed overseas earn salaries of less than $1,000 a month and often supplement their income by selling alcohol on the black market. Additionally, they are required to purchase luxury goods for bribery purposes when returning home.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the lodging quarters of victims of different flood-stricken areas in Pyongyang, Aug. 15, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). EPA-Yonhap

North Korea watchers said the fresh batch of defections will have a domino effect, triggering more desertions that will likely undermine the regime.

“About 34,000 North Koreans have defected to South Korea, mostly since the late 1990s. I believe the number of defectors will increase, particularly among those who have lived abroad for extended periods, as it is relatively easier for them,” Ahn said.

The North Korean leader has ordered the construction of new border walls and the installation of additional land mines, but defectors are likely to find ways to circumvent these measures, the analysts viewed.

“North Korea’s construction of anti-tank barriers, reinforcement of guards, and installation of mines are intended to strengthen its defensive positions against South Korea, not necessarily to prevent defections. The North Korean military’s equipment is outdated, and they are building the barriers manually, so progress is slow. They cannot afford surveillance cameras along the border, which will enable defectors to continue crossing,” Hong said.

The Korea Times · August 21, 2024

2. Strengthening the United Nations Command in Korea to Counter Authoritarian Collusion

What makes this essay especially important is that it is from two former Korean military officers. In the past there have been (and still are) antibodies to the UN Command in Korea – especially from Kim family regime the north but many in the South who are sympathetic to the north blame the UNC for preventing unification - which in fact is true in 1950-1953 because without the UNC the Kim family regime would have unified the peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. While the critics do not recognize that they blame the UNC's existence for 70 years as being the obstacle to unification along with the US. But these authors provide a very objective view of UNC history, its purpose, and most importantly its potential.

Excerpt:

Conclusion

The deepening partnership between North Korea and Russia should be met with a timely response from South Korea’s partners in both Asia and Europe. This three-part plan would put the United Nations Command at the center of this response. By enhancing the command’s capabilities, it can better help address new threats, maintain regional stability, and advance the shared interests of member states from across the world.

Strengthening the United Nations Command in Korea to Counter Authoritarian Collusion - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com · by Chan Mo Ku · August 22, 2024

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated at the recent NATO summit that “North Atlantic security is inseparable from East Asian security.” His words highlight the growing realization among Asian and European states that both regions are increasingly interconnected, particularly as North Korea deepens its strategic ties with Russia. There is now a growing risk of Pyongyang receiving technological support for its weapons programs in exchange for sending conventional weapons to Moscow.

One often-overlooked actor that can help confront this threat is the United Nations Command. Many European nations remain members of the command, which has played a critical role in maintaining the armistice on the Korean Peninsula. Since Russia’s possible provision of arms or missile technology to North Korea poses a potential threat to the armistice agreement, strengthening the United Nations Command not only can contribute to the stability on the Korean Peninsula but also aligns with the interests of policymakers in both Europe and Asia.

There are three steps that could bolster the United Nations Command’s capabilities: strengthening the organization’s information-sharing capability, increasing the frequency and range of military exercises, and augmenting the organization’s staffing to allow for more representation. Reinforcing the United Nations Command’s information-sharing capability would enhance situational awareness among member states from Asia and Europe and provide members with actionable opportunities for coordination. Raising the number and types of exercises conducted together would build experience and expertise for a wider range of combined operations. Finally, diversifying the command from a mostly American-staffed organization to include more personnel from other member states would help ensure continued investment and participation from other Asian and European states.

Become a Member

Background

On June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang and signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This agreement raised alarm in South Korea, the United States, and their partners in Europe. The biggest concern remains possible arms deals, with Pyongyang supplying munitions to Moscow in exchange for economic aid and technology transfers that could bolster the Kim regime’s nuclear and missile programs.

This situation has spurred European nations to strengthen their ties with Seoul, recognizing the intertwined nature of European and Asian security. The last three NATO summits were attended by South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, also known as the Indo-Pacific Four. The declaration from the most recent summit explicitly expressed concerns about North Korea supplying Russia with military support, including munitions and drones. Ongoing discussions continue to deepen mutual understanding of security issues in the Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific regions, linking Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the North Korean-Russian strategic partnership, and security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula into a cohesive picture.

These developments coincide with a newfound interest from both regions in the often neglected United Nations Command, the body tasked with maintaining the armistice on the Korean Peninsula. The United Nations Command was established in 1950 following North Korea’s invasion of South Korea. U.N. Security Council resolutions 83 and 84, which mandated its creation, called on U.N. member states to come to the defense of South Korea and designated the United States as standard-bearer of the unified command. From 1950 to 1953, 22 countries contributed to South Korea’s defense either by sending combat forces or providing medical assistance. However, with the signing of the armistice in 1953 and the activation of the Republic of Korea–United States Combined Forces Command in 1978, the United Nations Command’s role on the peninsula significantly decreased. These changes led the United Nations Command to evolve from a warfighting command into an organization primarily responsible for enforcing the armistice agreement and coordinating international contributions in response to crises or conflicts on the peninsula.

In 2021, a British three-star general served as the command’s deputy commander, the first time the position had been filled by a European general or flag officer. On Aug. 2, Germany joined the command as the 18th member state. Yoon’s administration hosted the first meeting of defense representatives of the United Nations Command member states and South Korea in November of last year. He has also sought to expand his country’s participation within the multilateral body, of which it is not an official member.

As the Kim regime has failed to relent in its threats toward its southern neighbor, Russia’s provision of arms and technical support to North Korea can be construed as threats to the armistice agreement. Given that the United Nations Command is tasked with maintaining that armistice, augmenting its capabilities and enabling it to maintain proper situational awareness of such transactions would allow the military command to carry out its mandate with more haste and flexibility.

Bolstering United Nations Command Capability

There is now a valuable window of opportunity to significantly bolster the capabilities of the United Nations Command while it enjoys the interest of policymakers in both regions. To seize it, we suggest a three-part action plan.

Enhance Operational Capability in Information-Sharing

The first part of the plan focuses on immediately enhancing the United Nations Command’s operational capability. The United States Forces Korea and the Republic of Korea–United States Combined Forces Command should start by strengthening interoperability in their information-sharing system. This will help ensure timely and accurate situational awareness and improved multinational coordination.

In December 2023, South Korea and the United States announced the activation of a trilateral data-sharing system with Japan to detect and assess North Korea’s missile launches in real time. Similarly, the United Nations Command can enhance its existing data-sharing systems to streamline real-time information reception.

This should be supported by establishing clear guidelines on the types of intelligence to be shared and the appropriate dissemination channels. These guidelines should be negotiated by relevant stakeholders through formal military channels, ambassador roundtables, or the Republic of Korea–United Nations Command Member States Defense Ministerial Meeting. Clear guidelines will provide the United Nations Command with greater legitimacy. This will also help it navigate the information-sharing restrictions that currently exist between the U.S.-Korean bilateral alliance and the multilateral United Nations Command for real-time operations, which will enhance the multinational military command’s operational capability.

Once established, the Multinational Coordination Center within the United Nations Command operations directorate can take a leading role in implementation. The center acts as a bridge for coordination requirements between liaison groups (which communicate with United Nations Command sending state national representatives) and United Nations command operations and intelligence directorates (which communicate with their counterparts from the Combined Forces Command and United States Forces Korea). Having the Multinational Coordination Center take on this role will contribute to instant communication between the United Nations Command and other relevant partners on the Korean Peninsula, thereby strengthening the presence and operational capability of the military command.

Expand Training Initiatives

The next part of the action plan focuses on enhancing the United Nations Command’s capability in the intermediate term by improving training initiatives in the region. To strengthen the capability of the military command, it is crucial to incorporate their personnel into relevant U.S.-Korean military exercises, fostering a better understanding of the Korean theater of operations and improving overall readiness.

Under the Yoon administration, the United Nations Command’s participation in U.S.-Korean bilateral exercises has increased significantly. For example, in March 2024, 12 United Nations Command member states dispatched personnel to join the Freedom Shield exercise, which featured a multi-domain, interagency operating environment. These joint exercises included live, virtual, constructive, and field-based training aimed at improving interoperability among the participating forces.

The United Nations Command can focus on familiarizing member state forces with the reception, staging, onward movement, and integration process within the Korean theater of operations. This will ensure quick and efficient deployment of forces with the necessary supplies and support, which is critical for responding to conflicts in the region. Given that one of the United Nations Command’s priorities is establishing efficient procedures to coordinate member states’ force flow and generation, simulating this procedure will ensure seamless coordination and enhance overall effectiveness.

Expanding joint training between the United Nations Command and the U.S.-Korean alliance will not only enhance command-level operational capabilities but also foster stronger personal connections between members of the multinational military command and the relevant parties on the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, this training will also demonstrate United Nations Command’s role in integrating multinational forces during crisis or conflict, thereby sending a strong message about its commitment to peace and stability on the peninsula.

Strengthen Organization Structure

Finally, the sustainability of the multinational military command’s capabilities depends on strengthening its organizational structure and increasing personnel from member states. To ensure that the United Nations Command benefits from a broad range of international support in the long term, it is essential to diversify its staff by including more military personnel from members beyond the United States. For example, in June 2024, New Zealand’s defense minister and foreign minister announced plans to increase the size of their contribution to the command from 12 to 53 personnel. If other countries took this step, it would help the command gain stronger international support. As the United Nations Command has seen significant changes since the late 2010s — most notably with Canadian, Australian, and British officers serving as deputy commanders — filling key positions within the core staff with military personnel from more countries will foster greater involvement and diversify the organizational structure. This will ultimately render the United Nations Command more effective and sustainable in leading international efforts on the Korean Peninsula.

Including South Korean military personnel in the United Nations Command staff is also vital. This would not only strengthen the command’s connection with its host nation, but also promote Seoul from a mere host nation to an active member state. In late 2020, the United Nations Command requested the South Korean government staff some positions within the multinational military command. At that time, the command aimed to increase its core staff positions from under 50 to around 80, with about 10 of these additional positions intended for South Korean military personnel. Years later, in July 2024, it was reported that a South Korean general would be assigned to the United Nations Command’s core operations staff for the first time. A South Korean government official has stated that preparations were completed to assign its general officer to the role of deputy assistant chief of staff U3 (operations), along with about ten other South Korean military personnel in various positions.

This will help insulate the United Nations Command and its role from potential changes in South Korea’s political landscape. For instance, during the Moon Jae-in administration, there was significant tension between the administration and the command over increased international contributions. Germany expressed interest in becoming the 18th member state, but this request was rejected by South Korea’s defense ministry. Similarly, Denmark sought to expand its role from providing medical assistance to contributing combat troops in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula, but the Moon administration also turned down this proposal.

The Moon administration cited concerns over potential infringements on South Korea’s sovereignty as the reason for this. However, there were discussions within the military suggesting that the real issue might have been “discomfort” over the fear that the command “could become an obstacle to improving relations with North Korea.” Given that North Korea is a pivotal issue in South Korea’s foreign policy, similar challenges may continue to emerge depending on the future government’s stance toward Pyongyang. Including South Korean military personnel in the United Nations Command and elevating Seoul’s role from a host nation to an active member state could serve to mitigate future concerns.

Conclusion

The deepening partnership between North Korea and Russia should be met with a timely response from South Korea’s partners in both Asia and Europe. This three-part plan would put the United Nations Command at the center of this response. By enhancing the command’s capabilities, it can better help address new threats, maintain regional stability, and advance the shared interests of member states from across the world.

Become a Member

Chan Mo Ku is a former military officer at the strategic planning directorate of the Republic of Korea–United States Combined Forces Command.

Joo Young Kim is a former Navy officer and writes about foreign policy issues. He also worked as a civilian specialist for the U.S. Army in Korea.

Image: Chad McNeeley

Commentary

warontherocks.com · by Chan Mo Ku · August 22, 2024

3. Beyond the Surveys: Unpacking South Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions Amid Political and Domestic Realities

I cannot emphasize this enough: those who support South Korea's development of nuclear weapons are supporting Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy to undermine both the ROK government and the ROK/US alliance.

Kim Jong Un wants this debate. Kim Jong Un wants the South to develop nuclear weapons because he believes it will split the ROK/US alliance and drive US forces off the peninsula (and it could very well do this before the ROK even develops nuclear weapons). It will also undermine the ROK electric infrastructure as the development of nuclear weapons could cut off the South's access to nuclear fuel for its 24 nuclear reactors.

Excerpts:

Conservative politicians’ statements supporting nuclear armament likely aim to divert public attention from internal problems and bolster their domestic standing. According to the Gallup Poll, Yoon’s approval rate is very low, below than 30 percent. Particularly, it dropped after the PPP’s defeat in the April election and Yoon’s repeated use of veto power against a special probe bill investigating his alleged abuse of power in the case of a Marine’s death last year. This week, PPP members, along with security and conservative groups, announced their plan to initiate an online petition aiming for 10 million signatures in support of South Korea’s nuclear arsenal.

Yet the Yoon administration has begun to distance itself from such efforts. In an interview with Reuters in early August, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik rejected nuclear weaponization by saying it would cause “a huge crack in the U.S. alliance” and “an immediate shock in our financial market.”

A few weeks ago, Kim Joon-hyung, an RKP legislator and a former chancellor of Korea National Diplomatic Academy, raised suspicions regarding the existence of a group in both South Korea and the United States that advocates for South Korea’s nuclear armament in connection with the Sue Mi Terry incident.

The debate over South Korea’s nuclear armament is still unresolved. While immediate security concerns drive the high public support for nuclear armament in South Korea, the significant challenges and costs associated with such a path make it an unlikely and infeasible solution under the current political environment. However, there is a need for more nuanced public surveys taking into account the costs of nuclear armament to better measure the rational responses of the South Korean public. Also, there is a need to reassess the current U.S. strategy toward North Korea, including its emphasis on extended deterrence, which has been ineffective in alleviating South Koreans’ immediate nuclear fears.

To address South Korea’s nuclear ambitions and alleviate its security concerns, the United States should consider adjusting its extended deterrence strategy, incorporating reassurance measures to maintain regional stability and prevent nuclear proliferation.

Beyond the Surveys: Unpacking South Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions Amid Political and Domestic Realities

thediplomat.com

Support for nuclear weapons is less notable when the costs are factored in – and is politically infeasible regardless of public sentiment.

By Daeyeon Lee

August 22, 2024

Credit: Depositphotos

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Nonproliferation experts are expressing concern about South Korea’s nuclear aspirations, as yet another survey demonstrates high – 72.8 percent – public support for developing an indigenous nuclear arsenal. Two main factors are driving this nuclear desire. Despite the enhancement of the U.S. extended deterrence, North Korea continues to expand its nuclear arsenal, which is likely to be strengthened by its new ties with Russia. Like Charles de Gaulle, a former French President, South Koreans question U.S. nuclear assurance. These concerns are not new. In the 1980s, similar fears led President Park Chung-hee to initiate a nuclear weaponization program, including the nuclear program Project 890 and a missile program, in response to the increase of North Korea’s infiltrations and local provocations, coupled with U.S. military withdrawal plans.

Yet, there is skepticism over the feasibility of South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons. Dr. Siegfried Hecker warned that South Korea, which joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1975, would face significant, economic, diplomatic, and security challenges if it decides to develop a nuclear arsenal. Concerning the potentially high costs, it is doubtful whether these surveys accurately reflect South Koreans’ willingness to endure these costs. Instead, they overlook South Koreans’ rational response and the reality of the current domestic political environment.

Nonproliferation experts have widely cited surveys showing high public support for South Korea’s nuclear armament, especially following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s advocacy on January 11, 2023. Results from the Chicago Council on International Affairs, the Asan Institute, and the SAND Institute indicated a majority of South Koreans were in favor of nuclear possession. Subsequently, this proliferation concern led Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden to establish the Washington Declaration to manage the emerging nuclear proliferation aspiration in South Korea. However, this year’s survey outcome still shows that support for South Korean nuclear weapons has not waned.

Do these surveys reflect the reality? Interestingly, all these surveys commonly exclude the costs of nuclear armament and simply ask whether responders support nuclear weaponization or not. This survey structure leads nonproliferation experts to cast doubt on the validity of the high support rates.

To satisfy the thirst for more nuanced surveys, the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) showed that the support for developing indigenous nuclear weapons drops to 35 to 40 percent when all the costs – including economic sanctions, breakup of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the risk of war, the costs of nukes, environmental damage, and national image – are considered. These findings suggest that while initial surveys with a high support rate reflect an intuitive reaction, an informed public reveals greater caution toward nuclear armament.

Victor Cha from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) identified similar patterns in a recent report, demonstrating that only 34 percent of the elites immediately supported nuclear armament, even though questions do not include costs.

For 10 years, KINU has consistently asked about the desire for South Korea to pursue nuclear weapons in surveys, and it found that “public opinion supporting nuclear armament has dropped significantly in recent years, contrary to media reports,” falling from a peak of 71.3 percent in 2021 to 69 percent in 2022 and 60.2 percent in 2023. KINU speculates that this drop in support is likely due to increased “awareness of the problems and costs associated with development and maintaining nuclear weapons.”

In addition to questions about the real level of public support, the current political environment in South Korea has demonstrated that nuclear armament is infeasible. In the 1970s, Park’s authoritarian leadership could concentrate all national resources on Project 890, due to a lack of checks and balances. However, the 21st century South Korean government inevitably requires legislative assistance for national projects as the National Assembly holds the power of the purse, as established by Article 54 of the constitution.

Following the April legislative election, opposition parties now dominate the 300-seat National Assembly with 192 seats, almost two-thirds of the total. The ruling People Power Party (PPP), with only 108 seats, cannot support the Yoon administration’s national projects without cooperation from the opposition.

Notably, the two major liberal opposition parties, the Democratic Party (DP) and the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), which together hold 182 seats, explicitly advocate for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in their party constitutions. In contrast, the conservative PPP does not, leaving several PPP legislators as the sole advocates in the National Assembly for building a nuclear arsenal.

Conservative politicians’ statements supporting nuclear armament likely aim to divert public attention from internal problems and bolster their domestic standing. According to the Gallup Poll, Yoon’s approval rate is very low, below than 30 percent. Particularly, it dropped after the PPP’s defeat in the April election and Yoon’s repeated use of veto power against a special probe bill investigating his alleged abuse of power in the case of a Marine’s death last year. This week, PPP members, along with security and conservative groups, announced their plan to initiate an online petition aiming for 10 million signatures in support of South Korea’s nuclear arsenal.

Yet the Yoon administration has begun to distance itself from such efforts. In an interview with Reuters in early August, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik rejected nuclear weaponization by saying it would cause “a huge crack in the U.S. alliance” and “an immediate shock in our financial market.”

A few weeks ago, Kim Joon-hyung, an RKP legislator and a former chancellor of Korea National Diplomatic Academy, raised suspicions regarding the existence of a group in both South Korea and the United States that advocates for South Korea’s nuclear armament in connection with the Sue Mi Terry incident.

The debate over South Korea’s nuclear armament is still unresolved. While immediate security concerns drive the high public support for nuclear armament in South Korea, the significant challenges and costs associated with such a path make it an unlikely and infeasible solution under the current political environment. However, there is a need for more nuanced public surveys taking into account the costs of nuclear armament to better measure the rational responses of the South Korean public. Also, there is a need to reassess the current U.S. strategy toward North Korea, including its emphasis on extended deterrence, which has been ineffective in alleviating South Koreans’ immediate nuclear fears.

To address South Korea’s nuclear ambitions and alleviate its security concerns, the United States should consider adjusting its extended deterrence strategy, incorporating reassurance measures to maintain regional stability and prevent nuclear proliferation.

=Authors

Guest Author

Daeyeon Lee

Daeyeon Lee is a graduate student in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. His research focuses on the nuclear politics of the Korean Peninsula, Two Koreas-U.S. relations, and inter-Korean relations. Previously, he was a Research Associate at the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL).

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thediplomat.com

4. N. Korean children not vaccinated against polio for 3rd straight year in 2023: WHO

The number one area of engagement with north Korea should be in medical humanitarian assistance. This is a critical area to prepare for unification. Polio, TB, and other afflictions will have a negative impact on unification. This is one area that prior engagement can help to prepare for unification. Of course the regime is unlikely to allow this type of engagement and certainly not on the necessary scale since it exposes the regime to criticism.

N. Korean children not vaccinated against polio for 3rd straight year in 2023: WHO | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 22, 2024

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korean children were not vaccinated against polio for the third straight year in 2023, with key inoculations for its infants also not being properly administered, a report by the World Health Organization (WHO) showed Thursday.

The immunization coverage with the type 3 oral polio vaccine (OPV3) for North Korea stood at zero last year, unchanged from that for 2021 and 2022, according to the 2024 Expanded Program on Immunization fact sheet.

The vaccination rate with OPV3 in North Korea had stayed above 98 percent in 2014-2019 before falling to 70 percent in 2020. Since then, no vaccination against polio has been administered in North Korea.

North Korea's BCG vaccination rate against tuberculosis also declined to 63 percent last year, down from 99 percent the previous year. In 2023, the inoculation rate against measles stood at 28 percent in the North, down from 67 percent a year earlier.

A sharp decline in the vaccination rates for North Korean children is believed to be caused by a shortage of essential vaccines due to the reclusive regime's border closure over the COVID-19 pandemic. North Korea began reopening its border with China in late August 2023.

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said in March that the impact of North Korean children not being properly vaccinated will become evident three to five years later.

This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 19, 2012, shows a North Korean nurse preparing to give an unspecified vaccine shot to a child. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

N. Korean infants not properly vaccinated: unification minister

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 22, 2024

5. Unification minister urges NK to respond to proposal of forming inter-Korean working group

Despite it being highly unlikely the regime will respond (and certainly unlikely that it will respond positively), it is the right thing to do to give Kim a chance to do the right thing.

Unification minister urges NK to respond to proposal of forming inter-Korean working group

The Korea Times · August 22, 2024

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho speaks during a press conference with foreign correspondents at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap

Kim Yung-ho hopes next US administration will remain steadfast in objective of NK's denuclearization

By Kwak Yeon-soo

On Thursday, Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho urged North Korea once again to respond to South Korea’s request for working-level consultations to initiate dialogue between the two Koreas.

Kim stressed that the formation of the inter-Korean working group is the most important action plan addressed in President Yoon Suk Yeol’s 8.15 Unification Doctrine.

“President Yoon made the suggestion to North Korea to engage in working-level consultations without limiting the agenda. We’ve seen a history where the working-level consultations eventually led to higher-level consultations and an agreement between the two Koreas. So I’d like to ask the North to carefully consider our proposal and return to the path of dialogue,” Kim said during a press conference with foreign correspondents in Seoul, Thursday.

The minister said South Korea will utilize the advancement of technologies to spread outside information and culture to North Korea, taking the example of how the introduction of satellites brought about change in the USSR during the Cold War.

According to Kim, about 80 percent of the 6,351 North Korean defectors who settled in South Korea between 2013 and 2022 said they had access to foreign media content including South Korean dramas and movies.

“North Koreans have a high level of desire and demand for information from the outside world,” Kim said. “If you look back in history, there were cases where the authorities tried to use force and oppression against people to prevent the spread of specific culture and information. However, history has proven that all of these efforts failed. We will try our best to make sure that North Koreans’ access to outside information is protected.”

A North Korean flag flutters at the propaganda village of Kijong-dong in North Korea, in this picture taken in the South near the truce village of Panmunjeom inside the demilitarized zone (DMZ) which separates the two Koreas, July 19, 2022. Reuters-Yonhap

Kim expressed hope that the next U.S. administration, whether led by Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, will implement a policy that calls for the denuclearization of North Korea.

“Both the Democrats and the Republicans have not mentioned the denuclearization of North Korea. Whichever party comes in next, there will be a policy review in the beginning. During this process, we sincerely hope there is a mention of the complete denuclearization of North Korea as one of the priorities and goals for U.S. diplomacy,” he said. “The South Korean government will also work closely to make sure this idea is implemented in the U.S.”

As part of the Yoon administration’s efforts to gain international support for unification, the government said it would survey 10 different countries this year to find out how people in other countries think about the concept of Korean unification.

“We will use this data as a reference for our unification diplomacy and our cooperation with the international community,” Kim said.

He also reaffirmed adherence to the Camp David agreement, saying that the U.S. and Japan expressed a commitment to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and support South Korea’s "audacious initiative."

South Korea will on Sept. 3 launch the 2024 Global Korea Forum, an extension of the annual Global Korea Forum hosted by the Ministry of Unification since 2010.

“We hope the Global Korea Forum offers a comprehensive review of all issues related to North Korea where we can talk about various topics like human rights, climate change and space technology,” Kim said.

The Korea Times · August 22, 2024

6. US expected to reaffirm NK denuclearization after rival parties make no mention of it: unification minister

Again, the Koreans in the South parse every word from our political leaders and potential political leaders. Words have an impact (or in this case the lack of words).

We should ask why both political parties left out denuclearization. Lack of focus, lack of concern, or lack of knowledge? Or do they both have new strategies in mind?

US expected to reaffirm NK denuclearization after rival parties make no mention of it: unification minister

The Korea Times · August 22, 2024

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho speaks during a press conference with foreign correspondents in Jung District, Seoul, Aug. 22. Yonhap

South Korea's point man on North Korea said Thursday that the incoming U.S. government will reaffirm its long-standing goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.

The remarks by Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho came after both the Democratic and Republican parties omitted the long-elusive denuclearization goal from their platforms, raising questions about how the new administration might handle North Korea's nuclear threats and whether this signals any potential shift in policy focus.

"Regardless of which party takes power, I believe the incoming administration will reassess its North Korea policy early on," Kim said during a press conference with foreign correspondents in Seoul.

"I expect that they will reaffirm their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea, and our government will also continue to work in that direction," the minister said.

The omission of denuclearization in party platforms has also sparked concerns that Pyongyang could misinterpret it as an opportunity to seek U.S. acknowledgment of North Korea as a de facto nuclear power and shift negotiations toward arms control rather than denuclearization.

Reiterating Seoul's commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the minister emphasized the importance of strengthening deterrence against North Korea's provocations and illegal acts.

Kim, a former conservative professor, is known for his hard-line stance toward North Korea and his strong advocacy for human rights.

"I once again emphasize the importance of complete denuclearization of North Korea by actively protecting the NPT (Non-proliferation Treaty) regime through cooperation," Kim said.

Kim also reiterated his hope that North Korea would respond to South Korea's recent offer for an official dialogue channel, emphasizing that the agenda for the long-stalled talks could cover any topic.

President Yoon Suk Yeol proposed earlier this month that South and North Korea establish a working-level dialogue channel, during a Liberation Day speech marking the 79th anniversary of independence from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule.

"I hope (North Korea) will respond to our proposal for a dialogue channel," Kim said.

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho, left, attends to a press conference with foreign correspondents in Jung District, Seoul, Aug. 22. Yonhap

The proposal comes amid heightened tensions after North Korea sent balloons filled with trash across the border in retaliation for South Korean civic groups sending balloons carrying propaganda leaflets critical of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

North Korea has been erasing references to unification since its leader Kim defined inter-Korean relations as those between "two hostile states" and labeled South Korea as his country's "invariable principal enemy."

Some critics have argued that Yoon's unification vision lacks an initiative for mutual respect between the two countries' political systems, a concept that was a key element of South Korea's official unification formula unveiled in 1994 under the liberal Kim Young-sam administration.

However, the unification minister asserted that North Korea is the one disregarding South Korea's political system, urging the reclusive regime to explain its recent hostile rhetoric.

Yoon used his speech to unveil a blueprint for unification and extend new outreach to Pyongyang, following the South Korean government's recent offer to provide relief supplies for flood damage in the isolated regime, which is suspected to have suffered significant damage in its northern border areas.

Yoon also proposed the establishment of a working group between the two Koreas to discuss ways to ease tensions, resume economic cooperation, and increase exchanges. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · August 22, 2024

7. Exclusive: Elite defections surge 2.5 times under Kim Jong-un

Cracks in the regime? War or regime collapse?

Exclusive: Elite defections surge 2.5 times under Kim Jong-un

Growing discontent towards the regime among North Korea's core leadership

https://www.chosun.com/english/north-korea-en/2024/08/22/MCUSXX5WWVBKFP3Z5PFFSG2EUU/

By Kim Min-seo,

Kim Seo-young

Published 2024.08.22. 09:06

Surge in elite defectors from North Korea during Kim Jong-un regime

In North Korea, high-ranking officials in the party, government, military, as well as diplomats and overseas representatives, make up the core elite supporting the regime. Their defection signifies that the regime is unraveling from its core. Indeed, elite defections have more than doubled since Kim Jong-un came to power compared to the Kim Jong-il era.

According to data obtained by Chosunilbo from the Ministry of Unification on Aug. 21, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) has classified 188 elite defectors as “exclusively protected” since records began in July 1997. Of these, 54 defected before the death of former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in December 2011, while 134 have defected since Kim Jong-un took power. These elite defectors, who mainly come from the North’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, military, intelligence agencies, and security organizations, are considered “likely to significantly affect national security” under the relevant North Korean defectors act, with the NIS Director deciding their eligibility for protection. Elite defections have been concentrated in Kim Jong-un’s 13 years, surpassing those during Kim Jong-il’s 14-year rule.

The unrest among elites is even more striking when compared to the overall number of defectors. Under Kim Jong-il, elites made up 0.23% of 23,027 defectors, whereas under Kim Jong-un, elites make up 1.22% of 10,985 defectors, a 5.3-fold increase.

Six elite defectors interviewed by Chosunilbo expressed strong discontent with the regime, stating, “There is substantial resentment towards the regime among core members. The Kim Jong-un regime has no future.” These defectors experienced all three Kim regimes and left between 2014 and 2020. A former North Korean diplomat noted, “I didn’t want my children to live as I did. Many colleagues share my views but have not yet found the courage to act.” Ri Il-gyu, a former North Korean official who defected last year from the embassy in Cuba and now lives in South Korea, shared in a recent interview with Chosunilbo, “I yearned for the free world and found hope by researching the lives of earlier defectors like Ko Young-hwan and Thae Yong-ho.” This suggests that more defectors like Ri Il-gyu could emerge at any moment.

North Korea

defection

Kim Jong-un

8. North Korean athletes' victory selfies raise red flags in Pyongyang

I fear for the Koreans in the north. But I also feel for the Koreans in the South who took the photo and with no thanks to the media who captured and posted the act. They will have feelings of guilt. But they should remember that the Koreans in the north suffer not because tof their actions but because of the mafia-like come family cult known as the Kim family regime.

North Korean athletes' victory selfies raise red flags in Pyongyang

Olympic selfies may lead to punishment for North Korean athletes

https://www.chosun.com/english/north-korea-en/2024/08/22/QNJLMFSNQJFWZCHN7SUHF3V5KY/

By Kim Ja-ah,

Park Su-hyeon

Published 2024.08.22. 15:53

North Korean athletes who took selfies with South Korean athletes at the Paris Olympics may face punishment, as reports suggest they are currently undergoing ideological scrutiny in Pyongyang.

On Aug. 21, Daily NK reported, citing a high-level source in Pyongyang, that the North Korean Olympic Committee delegation and athletes have been undergoing ideological evaluations since their return on August 15. Athletes competing in international events are subjected to a three-stage ideological assessment process lasting about a month, involving the Central Party, the Ministry of Sports, and an internal review. The North Korean regime views international exposure as a potential encounter with “non-socialist” culture, which it considers a form of “contamination.” A Daily NK source stated, “The assessment begins the moment athletes return, with the goal of ‘cleansing’ their thoughts as quickly as possible.”

The ongoing assessment in Pyongyang is led by the Central Party, which scrutinizes every aspect of the athletes’ conduct from departure to return. If any behavior contradicting the Party’s directives or educational objectives is detected during the Olympics, the athletes could face disciplinary actions.

Before leaving for the Olympics, North Korean athletes were reportedly given “special instructions” not to interact with South Korean or other foreign athletes. Any confirmed violations of this directive could lead to repercussions.

Mixed doubles table tennis bronze medalists Lim Jong-hoon and Shin Yu-bin of South Korea take a selfie with gold medalists Wang Chuqin and Sun Yingsha of China, and silver medalists Ri Jong-sik and Kim Kum-yong of North Korea on the podium at the victory ceremony at South Paris Arena 4 in Paris, France, on July 30, 2024./Reuters Yonhap News

During the Olympics, all medal-winning athletes took “victory selfies” with Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip 6 Olympic Edition. Images surfaced of North Korean athletes posing for selfies with South Korean and Chinese athletes, prompting negative evaluations submitted to the Party.

In particular, Ri Jong-sik and Kim Kum-yong, who won silver in mixed doubles table tennis, were noted for taking selfies with South Korea’s bronze medalists, Lim Jong-hoon and Shin Yu-bin, as well as with China’s gold medalists, Wang Chuqin and Sun Yingsha. While international media celebrated this moment as one of the top 10 news stories of the Olympics, it may lead to consequences in North Korea.

According to Daily NK sources, the report on these athletes criticized them for “grinning” next to South Korean athletes, who are viewed as primary adversaries by the authorities. Kim Kum-yong was specifically noted for smiling during the selfie, while Ri Jong-sik faced criticism for smiling as he observed athletes from other countries after stepping off the podium.

Daily NK indicated uncertainty about whether North Korean authorities will impose penalties or address the situation with warnings or lighter critiques such as self-reflection. A Daily NK source explained, “If they interacted with athletes from other countries, they must strongly reflect on their actions to avoid potential political or administrative punishment.”

9. North Korean soldier defects on foot across fortified border to South

To study the indoctrination and its effects on nKPA soldiers I recommend George Hutchinson's HRNK report.

Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA

https://www.hrnk.org/documentations/army-of-the-indoctrinated-the-suryong-the-soldier-and-information-in-the-kpa/

George Hutchinson’s The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA is the second of three building blocks of a multi-year HRNK project to examine North Korea’s information environment. Hutchinson’s thoroughly researched and sourced report addresses the circulation of information within the Korean People’s Army (KPA). Understanding how KPA soldiers receive their information is needed to prepare information campaigns while taking into account all possible contingencies. The report examines official propaganda and indoctrination delivered to North Korean soldiers, all along the chain of control and command. Hutchinson provides the information, analysis and recommendations needed to inform KPA soldiers on the real situation outside North Korea, the human rights violations affecting them, and the corruption of their leadership.

North Korean soldier defects on foot across fortified border to South

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/soldier-defects-on-foot-fortified-border-south-08212024192732.html

The resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts from the South may have played a role, experts say.

By Han Do Hyung for RFA Korean

2024.08.21

A photo taken from the South Korean border city of Paju shows soldiers (top) outside a guard post in North Korea, as seen beyond a South Korean guard post (bottom), April 15, 2022.

Anthony Wallace/AFP

For the first time in five years, a North Korean soldier defected to the South, crossing the heavily fortified border on foot early Tuesday, prompting some experts to speculate that the resumption in July of South Korean loudspeaker broadcasts along the border prompted his escape.

No details were available on how the soldier got across the border, only that the staff sergeant wearing a military uniform crossed in the far-eastern part of the 155-mile-long, 2.5-mile wide demilitarized zone, in Kosong, Kangwon province, and expressed a desire to defect, the South’s Yonhap News Agency reported.

The incident occurred nearly two weeks after a North Korean civilian escaped on the opposite side of the Korean Peninsula via the waters of the Han River estuary, landing on Gyodong Island in Incheon’s Ganghwa county.

Successful crossings of the heavily fortified military demarcation line that has divided the two Koreas since 1953 is rare. Generally, North Korean escapees try to flee north into China, though most eventually aim to get to South Korea.

The risks are high for those trying to escape from the poor, authoritarian country. If captured and sent back — as some are from China — they almost certainly face prison time.

Loudspeaker role?

On July 21, South Korea’s military fully resumed loudspeaker “Voice of Freedom” broadcasts to North Korea in border areas and forecast that the programs would psychologically agitate North Korean soldiers along the border. The programs focus on liberal democracy, the South's economic success, the rationale for reunification, and the truth about the North's repressive society.

“If defections occur frequently, this can be interpreted as an indirect measure of the situation of North Korean residents working in the border area,” said an official from South Korea’s Ministry of Unification during a meeting with reporters that day.

LA Koreans Protest Against Repatriation of North Korean Defectors in Front of Chinese Consulate General

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/human_rights_defector/repatriation-08222024085045.html

LA-Yoo Ji-seung xallsl@rfa.org

2024.08.22

Korean groups in Los Angeles and other Korean communities are protesting against the forced repatriation of North Korean defectors in front of the Chinese Consulate General.

/ RFA PHOTO-Yoo Ji-seung

00:00 /02:26

Anchor : A protest against China's repatriation of North Korean defectors is taking place in Los Angeles, USA. Reporter Yoo Ji-seung reports.

Recording : Stop the forced repatriation, stop it, stop it.

In front of the Chinese Consulate General in Los Angeles, protests have been taking place since the 19th to condemn the Chinese government's forced repatriation of North Korean defectors.

This protest, which also took place in front of the Chinese Consulate General on the 21st, is being carried out by several Korean groups with the goal of lasting a week.

The reason for holding the protest for a week instead of just one day is to inform more people about China's forced repatriation of North Korean defectors and the reality of human rights violations against North Korean defectors.

The protesters raised their voices, saying that the purpose of this demonstration was to inform the international community about the situation and to improve it, as the Chinese government is increasingly forcibly repatriating North Korean defectors who risked their lives to escape.

This is Kang Yong-gu, who participated in the protest.

Mr. Kang Yong-gu : The biggest goal is to make Koreans, Asians, and American citizens aware of the Chinese government's atrocities. (We are continuing the protests with that in mind.)

The protesters held signs in English, Korean and Chinese and chanted slogans such as “Stop repatriating North Korean defectors.”

Protesters said repatriating North Korean defectors would be tantamount to taking their lives, and called for them to be sent to third countries, South Korea or the United States.

Hong Jeong-su, who participated in the protest, said it was unfortunate that the only thing he could do while living in a foreign country was to protest.

Mr. Hong Jeong-su : The first step for the (North Korean) people who came in search of freedom is China, and if China forcibly repatriates them, it would be a violation of human rights, so the only thing we can do to the Chinese government is this protest.

The protest organizers said the protest would continue until the planned 23rd, and they expected that as the protest progressed, more groups and more people would show interest and join in.

Even after this protest, Korean groups plan to continue protesting regularly in front of the Chinese Consulate General.

Editor Park Jeong-woo, Web Editor Kim Sang-il

11. Unification Minister: “North Korean Residents’ ‘Right to Access Information’ Expanded by Applying Cutting-edge Technology”

Yes. A few points excerpted from a paper I that I am presenting next week in Seoul at the Korean Institute of National Unification:

There is a unique relationship among denuclearization, human rights, and unification. The only way to achieve denuclearization and end the human rights abuses being committed against the Korean people in the north is by achieving unification which is a new Korea determined by the Korea people achieving a United Republic of Korea (UROK or U-ROK). Perhaps counterintuitively it is the focus on human rights that must lead to unification and only when unification is achieved there can be denuclearization. And the connective tissue among the three is information.

...

Deterring war remains the overarching priority for the ROK/U.S. alliance. However, information can play an effective role in both supporting the alliance’s priority while exerting unprecedented pressure on Kim Jong Un. The alliance should execute a superior political warfare strategy that consists of three lines of effort: a human rights upfront approach, information campaign, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.[i] The following are the highlights of what should be included as part of an overt public diplomacy/information campaign.

Overarching narrative: Every response to the regime’s nuclear and missile activities must include a human rights response. For example, Kim Jong Un’s deliberate decision to prioritize nuclear and missile development is solely responsible for the suffering of the Korea people in the north.

Establish a “Korea Desk” at the Global Engagement Center to coordinate U.S. information activities.[ii]

Establish an alliance organization to plan and conduct combined political warfare with a supporting information campaign.[iii]

Establish an Escapee (Defector) Information Institute to harness the expertise of key communicators from the north to shape themes and messages and advise on all aspect of the information campaign.[iv]

Direct ROK and US military psychological operations forces to create a campaign targeting the north Korean People’s Army (nKPA) with two objectives: first is to prevent an attack of the South. The second is to disobey orders directing the suppression of any collective action by the Korean people. The nKPA must decide not to put down any resistance to the Kim family regime.

Develop technologies to penetrate the north Korean intranet system, smart phones, and other digital capabilities.

Employ the five principles of information: (1) massive quantities of information from news to entertainment; (2) practical information from market activity to organization for collective action; (3) facts and the truth about north Korea and the outside world; (4) understanding of the universal human rights for all people; (5) voices from north Korea

Major theme: Kim’s strategy has failed to achieve his objectives.

To counter north Korean propaganda, recognize the Kim family regime’s strategy(s), understand the strategy(s), EXPOSE the strategy(s) to inoculate the Korean, American, and Japanese publics and the international community, and attack the strategy(s) with a superior information campaign.

[i] Robert Joseph, Robert Collins, Joseph DeTrani, Nicholas Eberstadt, Olivia Enos, David Maxwell, and Greg Scarlatoiu, “National Strategy for Countering north Korea,” National Institute for Public Policy, No. 545, January 23, 2023, https://nipp.org/information_series/robert-joseph-robert-collins-joseph-detrani-nicholas-eberstadt-olivia-enos-david-maxwell-and-greg-scarlatoiu-national-strategy-for-countering-north-korea-no-545-january-23-2023/ See also David Maxwell “A Three Part Plan To Enhance President Yoon’s north Korea Strategy: Toward A Free And Unified Korea,” 19Forty Five, September 2, 2022

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/a-three-part-plan-to-enhance-president-yoons-north-korea-strategy-toward-a-free-and-unified-korea/

[ii] U.S. Department of State, Global Engagement Center, https://www.state.gov/bureaus-offices/under-secretary-for-public-diplomacy-and-public-affairs/global-engagement-center/

[iii] Bradley Bowman and David Maxwell, Eds. “Maximum Pressure 2.0 A Plan for north Korea,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, December 5, 2019, page 50. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/

[iv] Ibid., Page 51.

Unification Minister: “North Korean Residents’ ‘Right to Access Information’ Expanded by Applying Cutting-edge Technology”

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/082224hw-08222024043524.html

Seoul - Hong Seung-wook hongs@rfa.org

2024.08.22

South Korea's Unification Minister Kim Young-ho speaks at a press conference for foreign media in Seoul on the 22nd.

RFA PHOTO

00:00 /04:54

Anchor : South Korea's Unification Minister Kim Young-ho has announced plans to use cutting-edge technology to help North Korean residents access outside information as part of the implementation of the so-called "August 15 Unification Doctrine . " Hong Seung-wook reports from Seoul .

Press conference held by Minister of Unification Kim Young-ho for foreign press in Seoul on the 22nd .

Minister Kim announced at this event that he would support information inflow activities utilizing cutting-edge technologies such as digital technologies to expand North Korean residents' access to information as proposed through the so-called 'August 15 Unification Doctrine . '

Kim Young-ho, Minister of Unification of the Republic of Korea : ( In North Korea and other closed societies ) the right to access information is closely related to the development of cutting-edge technologies of the time . I understand that discussions are underway both domestically and internationally on ways to apply cutting-edge technologies to improve the right to access information .

Minister Kim said that the government will continue to support the development and production of content by private organizations supporting North Korean human rights , including attempts to apply cutting-edge technologies to expand access to information .

He then mentioned the results of a survey by the Ministry of Unification that found that more than 80% of North Korean defectors who entered South Korea in recent years had watched South Korean dramas and other foreign media in the year before leaving the country, emphasizing that “ North Korean residents’ desire for foreign information is voluntary . ”

Minister Kim also said that the soldier and civilian who defected in Goseong, Gangwon-do on the 20th and in Gyodong Island on the 8th were both men in their 20s , and that among the 196 North Korean defectors who entered South Korea last year, more than half were in their 20s and 30s .

However, it was revealed that they are investigating whether the recently resumed operation of loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea had an effect on the defection .

They also stated that the claim that the successive garbage balloon provocations were due to South Korea scattering anti-North Korea leaflets is simply North Korea's claim .

South Korean Unification Minister Kim Young-ho : North Korea is saying that it sent the garbage balloons because of anti-North Korea leaflets, but I think that is just North Korea’s claim . I think the purpose is to disrupt South Korean society and create anxiety among the people .

Regarding the deletion of North Korea’s denuclearization from the platforms of both the Democratic and Republican parties ahead of the presidential election in November , he said, “ Whichever party takes power will reexamine their initial North Korea policy, ” and expressed his expectation that “ in the process, the position of complete denuclearization of North Korea will be reaffirmed . ”

Furthermore, if North Korea's nuclear weapons are recognized, the NPT, or the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, will completely collapse due to serial nuclear development attempts in Northeast Asia , and the South Korean government will actively protect the system and cooperate with its allies to promote North Korea's complete denuclearization, he said .

President Yoon proposes formation of ' North-South Dialogue Council'

Ministry of Unification announces implementation plan for 'August 15 Unification Doctrine '

The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs also announced its position on the same day : “ We will continue to acquire practical capabilities and systems to effectively deter and respond to any type of North Korean nuclear threat. ”

A Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told reporters, “ South Korea and the United States are continuing to strengthen their extended deterrence capabilities centered around the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in response to North Korea’s increasingly sophisticated nuclear and missile threats , thereby contributing to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region . ”

This is a statement of position in response to media reports that the United States has approved new nuclear weapons operating guidelines that reflect the strengthening of nuclear forces by North Korea and China .

Meanwhile, it has been revealed that since Kim Jong-un took power as General Secretary of the North Korean Workers' Party, the number of cases of defections by the so-called North Korean elite has more than doubled compared to the time when Kim Jong-il was in power .

According to the Ministry of Unification on this day , the number of elite defectors classified as “ sole protection ” by the National Intelligence Service of South Korea between July 1997 and the first half of this year is 188 .

From 1997 , when statistics on North Korean defectors began to be compiled, to the death of National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il, 54 elite defectors left the country in the 14 years and 6 months following their death . However , from 2012 , when General Secretary Kim Jong-un came to power, a total of 134 people left the country in the 12 years and 6 months following his death .

Numerically, elite defections have increased more than 2.5 times during Kim Jong-un's rule .

In relation to this, South Korea's Ministry of Unification stated , " We cannot reveal details in consideration of the personal safety of North Korean defectors, " but added, " It appears to be true that the number of high-ranking officials dispatched overseas by North Korea defecting and entering South Korea has been increasing recently . "

He also reported that the occupations of high-level defectors are diverse, including diplomats, international students , and doctors .

This is Hong Seung-wook of RFA's Radio Free Asia in Seoul .

Editor Mok Yong-jae

12. “In order to achieve North Korea’s denuclearization, we must first pursue a ‘nuclear freeze’”

I disagree. Kim is unlikely to agree to a freeze or at least one that is verifiable. But we are unlikely to ever achieve denuclearization while Kim Jong Un is in power. Although denuclearization of the north remains a worthy goal, it must be viewed as aspirational as long as the Kim family regime remains in power. The conventional wisdom has always been that denuclearization must come first and then unification will follow and that there should be no discussion of human rights out of fear that it would prevent Kim Jong Un from making a denuclearization agreement. Today even a blind man can read the tea leaves and know that Kim Jong Un will not denuclearize despite the fact that his policies have been an abject failure. His political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies completely failed in 2022-2024 because Presidents Yoon and Biden, like their predecessors, refused to make the political and economic concessions he demanded just to come to the negotiating table: namely to remove sanctions. It is time for the U.S and the ROK/U.S. alliance to execute a political warfare strategy that flips the conventional wisdom and seeks unification first and then denuclearization. Everyone must come to the understanding that the only way to end the nuclear program and the human rights abuses is through unification of the Korean peninsula. The ROK and U.S. must continue to maintain the highest state of military readiness to deter war and then adopt a human rights upfront approach, a comprehensive and sophisticated information and influence activities campaign, and focus all efforts on the pursuit of a free and unified Korea- ultimately a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

“In order to achieve North Korea’s denuclearization, we must first pursue a ‘nuclear freeze’”

Seoul-Handohyeong hando@rfa.org

2024.08.22

Expert forum on 'Post-Cold War Challenges and Opportunities, Issues Surrounding the Korean Peninsula' held by the 'Peace Foundation' on the 22nd.

/ Capture the relay screen

00:00 /04:31

Anchor : A South Korean expert has argued that North Korea's denuclearization is a difficult goal to achieve immediately, and that we need to approach the issue by first pursuing a freeze on North Korea's nuclear program . Reporter Han Do-hyung reports from Seoul .

The expert forum titled ' Post-Cold War Challenges and Opportunities , Issues Surrounding the Korean Peninsula ' was held on the 22nd by the Korean foundation ' Peace Foundation ' .

Professor Emeritus Jeon Bong-geun of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, who gave the presentation, said, “ The diplomacy focused on North Korea’s denuclearization for the past 30 years has in fact failed ,” but added , “ I still do not deny the possibility of North Korea’s denuclearization being realized . ”

Former professor emeritus diagnosed that “ North Korea has almost succeeded in guaranteeing the safety of the North Korean system and regime through nuclear armament , but the economy is still in a precarious situation . ” He added, “ If the situation arises where we resume denuclearization diplomacy with North Korea, we must take advantage of North Korea’s greatest concern , namely, its concern about the economy . ”

Professor Emeritus Jeon then suggested that “ North Korea’s ‘ complete denuclearization ’ cannot be achieved immediately ,” and that denuclearization should begin at the level of ‘ freezing ’ North Korea’s nuclear weapons . He especially emphasized the need to overcome the aversion to the term ‘ nuclear disarmament . ’

Professor Emeritus Jeon Bong-geun, Korea National Diplomatic Academy : They say that denuclearization is difficult right now, but we absolutely must achieve denuclearization starting with a ‘ freeze ’. I don’t really like the term ‘ nuclear disarmament ’ negotiations, but I still think that we must take all necessary measures with North Korea .

Along with this, Professor Emeritus Jeon Bong-geun said, “ As time goes by, I am concerned that North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons may be accepted for granted . ” Unlike Israel , Pakistan , and India, which developed nuclear weapons as non-members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) , North Korea is an illegal nuclear development state that joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty but withdrew when its nuclear activities were exposed. However , as time goes by, this boundary is likely to become blurred .

Professor Emeritus Jeon Bong-geun of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy : In the case of North Korea , it should be divided into an illegal nuclear development state that fled after its illegal nuclear activities were exposed and developed nuclear weapons .However , I am very worried that over time, these categories could be combined .

Former US officials : “ White House proposes ‘ interim measures ’ for denuclearization to reduce North Korean threat ”

Former US Official: “ If Trump is re-elected, a different North Korea policy is possible ”

Regarding the situation in which South Korea and the United States are creating the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and promoting the development of nuclear - conventional integration (CNI) , Professor Jeon Emeritus evaluated it as “ a very good strategy ,” saying, “ It will be of great help in suppressing North Korea’s nuclear activities . ”

However, former professor emeritus Jeon said, “ If we only strengthen security, the North Korean nuclear issue will not be resolved and the risk of war will rather increase, ” and suggested that we should pursue strengthening nuclear deterrence , improving inter-Korean relations to establish a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula , improving US-North Korea relations , and promoting cooperation in Northeast Asia .

The appearance of Professor Emeritus Jeon Bong-geun of the National Diplomatic Academy. / Capture of broadcast screen

Along with this, former professor emeritus said about the necessity of nuclear armament that has been raised in some parts of Korean society, “ I agree with the necessity, but it is impossible to realize because the United States is unlikely to agree . ” The nuclear non-proliferation policy is the foundation of the foreign policy that the United States has maintained for a long time, and it is difficult to change .

“ Since the creation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nuclear-armed countries such as Israel , Pakistan , India , and North Korea have enjoyed strong diplomatic autonomy, but South Korea has a very high degree of external dependence, ” said the former professor emeritus. “ South Korea has no room for autonomous choices, ” he added .

Professor Emeritus Jeon Bong-geun of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy : I don’t think anyone denies the need for South Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons . Nevertheless, I think it’s impossible . People related to Trump have been said to be very understanding of South Korea’s nuclear armament , but I have never seen them say in an official setting that they support South Korea’s nuclear armament .

In addition, former professor emeritus Jeon emphasized again that “ North Korea has even enacted a law related to the ‘ preemptive use of nuclear weapons ’ ” and “ has a nuclear policy and nuclear doctrine that is more dangerous than that of any nuclear-armed state . ” In September 2022 , North Korea stipulated the conditions for the preemptive and arbitrary use of nuclear weapons in the enactment of the ‘ Nuclear Forces Policy Act ’ , and in September 2023 of the following year , it specified its nuclear force policy in its highest law, the Socialist Constitution .

Regarding the recent deletion of “ North Korea’s denuclearization ” from the Democratic Party’s new party platform following the Republican Party’s, Professor Emeritus Jeon said, “ Even if it is removed from the platform , there is no possibility that the new US government will downplay or ignore North Korea’s denuclearization . ”

The former professor emeritus said there is a high possibility that a North Korea-US summit will be held if former US President Donald Trump is re-elected in November , but he is still concerned about how much progress can be made in North Korea's denuclearization .

Editor Mok Yong-jae , Web Editor Kim Sang-il

13. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Heatwave Grips North Korea: Residents Sleep Outdoors Amid Lack of Air Conditioning and Power Shortages

The Korean people in the north continue to suffer.

＜Inside N. Korea＞Heatwave Grips North Korea: Residents Sleep Outdoors Amid Lack of Air Conditioning and Power Shortages

asiapress.org

(FILE PHOTO) North Korean women doing laundry in the Yalu River in late summer. Now, access to the Yalu River banks is strictly prohibited, so such scenes can no longer be seen. Photographed from the Chinese side of the border in September 2019. ISHIMARU Jiro

The intense heatwave sweeping East Asia this summer has not spared North Korea. In Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province, the country's second-largest city, many residents are sleeping outdoors in public stadiums due to the unbearable heat in their homes. This information comes from a reporting partner in the northern region, who relatives in Hamhung on August 14. (ISHIMARU Jiro/KANG Ji-won)

◆Makeshift Sleeping Arrangements and Rental Services

Historically, Hamhung's coastal location has provided a moderate summer climate. South Korean Meteorological Administration data shows that from 1999 to 2020, Hamhung's average August temperatures ranged from 19.9°C to 28.1°C. However, this summer, temperatures frequently exceeded 30°C, sometimes reaching 35°C, according to The Weather Channel.

The lack of air conditioning in most North Korean homes and power shortages limiting fan usage have forced many to seek relief outdoors. Around 4 PM daily, elderly residents set up mats in shaded areas of public stadiums. People can secure a sleeping spot for a fee of 1,000 North Korean won (about 97 South Korean won). An additional 1,000 won provides a rental mosquito net. Even the unemployed and ‘Kojebi’(homeless) have joined this nightly exodus.

These elderly organizers, facing financial hardships, have turned this situation into a small business opportunity, selling water, bread, and beer to the heat-stricken crowd.

◆Adapting Work Schedules to Beat the Heat

In Hyesan, Ryanggang Province, residents are finding different ways to cope. Many create sleeping spaces in yards, on roofs, or in warehouses.

To address the daytime heat, workplaces have adjusted their hours. Morning shifts run from 5 AM to 10 AM, while afternoon shifts operate from 4 PM to 7 PM.

Government offices sometimes rest from 10 AM to 3 PM, operating in the early morning or night hours. Police have reduced daytime patrols, opting for stationary posts during peak heat hours.

Hyesan recently experienced a power outage due to heavy rains, but electricity was restored recently. Current power supply schedules allocate 4-5 hours daily for industrial lines, 1-2 hours for residential lines, and about 3 hours for Hyesan city center.

To conserve energy, authorities are cracking down on individuals using industrial power to produce and sell ice.

※ North Korea distinguishes between industrial power lines (for official use) and residential lines (for households).

※ ASIAPRESS communicates with its reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)

asiapress.org

14. Yoon orders ROK military to deter North Korea from ‘communizing’ South

:-) Vanguard is usually associated with communist ideology. I wonder if there is a translation issue or just the bias of NK News.

Yoon orders ROK military to deter North Korea from ‘communizing’ South

President also urges army command to act as ‘vanguard of unification’ during visit timed to joint drills with US

https://www.nknews.org/2024/08/yoon-orders-rok-military-to-deter-north-korea-from-communizing-south/?utm

Jeongmin Kim August 21, 2024

Yoon Suk-yeol visits ROK army 5th Infantry Division | Image: ROK Presidential Office (Dec. 2023)

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol urged military officials to deter North Korea from pursuing unification by “communizing” the South on Wednesday, visiting an army command that oversees a quarter-million troops amid joint summertime drills with the U.S.

Yoon called the ROK Army Ground Operations Command the “vanguard of unification” during the visit, referring to his new unification doctrine that calls for spreading freedom to the DPRK and combating “anti-state forces.”

The president met with both South Korean and U.S. troops and “urged thorough combined readiness to prevent North Korea from daring to challenge us,” according to a Presidential Office press release on Wednesday.

The visit was timed to the two-week U.S.-ROK Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercises, as well as the ROK’s four-day Ulchi Training that will wrap up on Thursday.

“We must make the North Korean regime, which dreams of unification by communizing the ROK and taking it over, clearly recognize that invasion means the end of its regime,” Yoon said.

“The North Korean regime is the most irrational group on Earth that can provoke at any time. Only our military’s strong security posture can prevent their misjudgment,” he said. “All soldiers must be armed with the belief that they will protect our people’s lives, safety and the liberal democratic system.”

Yoon then visited the underground Combat Operations Center and received reports from the commander on military preparedness against North Korean threats and progress related to this year’s UFS.

Officials from both countries joined Yoon, including Commander of the U.S. Forces Korea Paul LaCamera, Deputy Commander of the Combined Forces Command Kang Shin-chul and Commander of the U.S. Eighth Army Christopher LaNeve.

Yoon also visited the command’s Counter-Fire Operations Center, where its head told Yoon that they would “destroy North Korea’s long-range artillery” threatening the capital area in the shortest time in a contingency.

The Ground Operations Command was established in 2019 by integrating the First and Third Field Armies, which were responsible for defending Gangwon and Gyeonggi provinces for decades.

The Presidential Office said Yoon’s visit on Wednesday was the first by a president since the integration.

The command controls more than half of the ROK military, about 250,000 troops to “deter North Korean provocations” in peacetime, and serves as “the core national defense unit commanding ROK-U.S. ground forces as the Combined Ground Component Command” in wartime, the release added.

Yoon’s visit comes around a week after he announced a new unification roadmap that calls for “freedom-based unification” with North Korea and combating “anti-unification” and “anti-freedom” forces allegedly dividing ROK society.

Experts told NK News at the time that the roadmap embraces unification by absorption of North Korea into the South Korean liberal democratic system rather than peaceful coexistence.

Yoon Suk-yeol visits ROK army 5th Infantry Division | Image: ROK Presidential Office (Dec. 2023)

Meanwhile, the South Korean military conducted various exercises across the country for the third day of the UFS on Wednesday.

The ROK navy carried out drills focusing on naval mine warfare in Jinhae, as well as exercises involving the transportation of guided bombs using special vehicles from base to launch pads in Yangyang County near the inter-Korean border.

Additionally, the ROK army’s 53rd Division, Naval Operations Command’s Base Defense Unit, Third Fleet Busan Port Defense Unit and other city authorities held a comprehensive defense training exercise in Busan, simulating responses to potential terrorist threats and other security scenarios.

Edited by Alannah Hill

15. Seoul defends all-male speaker lineup for upcoming forum on North Korea

"Manels" (male panels)

Seoul defends all-male speaker lineup for upcoming forum on North Korea

Unification ministry says female experts were unable to attend, following criticism of lack of women among 18 speakers

https://www.nknews.org/2024/08/seoul-defends-all-male-speaker-lineup-for-upcoming-forum-on-north-korea/

Ifang Bremer August 22, 2024

A screenshot of the speakers for the 2024 Global Korea Forum | Image: 2024 Global Korea Forum website

South Korea’s unification ministry has defended its all-male speaker lineup for a high-profile conference on North Korea issues next month, after experts and journalists raised concerns about the absence of women.

All 18 speakers scheduled to participate in the 2024 Global Korea Forum in Seoul on Sept. 3 are men, according to the official website, with no female experts scheduled to take the stage during the annual conference at the five-star Lotte Hotel.

In response to NK News questions, the ministry said that “due to various reasons, including attendance at academic conferences, teaching commitments, and personal circumstances, many female experts informed us of their inability to attend.”

“As a result, this forum is unavoidably composed of male speakers,” the ministry said, adding that “the Ministry of Unification respects gender diversity and strives to invite capable and qualified experts to international conferences, regardless of gender.”

All-male panels, often referred to by the derogatory portmanteau “manel,” have been a frequent target of criticism in South Korea and beyond in recent years, and the announcement of the speaker list for the Seoul forum quickly faced backlash from scholars and journalists on Thursday.

“Despite the presence of a couple people I like and respect, I wonder how anyone can make such a line-up. Surely someone in the planning stages could have said ‘this looks bad,’” CedarBough Saeji, a professor at Pusan National University, wrote on the social media platform X.

In another social media post, Michelle Lee, the Seoul bureau chief for The Washington Post, wrote, “Surely they could have found ONE female expert who’s available to go to Lotte Hotel Seoul on September 3?”

Sojin Lim, a professor at the University of Lancashire, noted that the forum not only lacks women but also young voices, with all the participants middle-aged or older.

The ministry said the lineup lacks young people because “due to the nature of the forum, the focus was on engaging mid-career to senior experts rather than emerging scholars.”

The event will bring together professors, ex-diplomats and former ROK officials to discuss inter-Korean unification, following the Yoon ministry’s announcement of a new policy that seeks to unify with North Korea under ROK rule.

According to the Global Korea Forum website, the conference aims to “gather the wisdom and discourse of the international community on peace, prosperity and unification on the Korean Peninsula and reflect it in the government’s North Korea and unification policy.”

“In doing so, we will gather insights from participants to feed a new vision for unification, denuclearization and the establishment of lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula,” the website states.

But Ji Hyun Park, a North Korean escapee and a senior fellow at the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, stated on her LinkedIn that the exclusion of women from forums like these makes it seem as if “gender equality is not being considered at all in the unification dialogue.”

“The unique challenges that women may face during the post-unification social reintegration process, as well as the human rights issues of women in North Korea, are aspects that must be thoroughly discussed and prepared for,” she wrote.

“As a woman and someone who works for unification, I am concerned that the exclusion of women’s voices from this forum is not just a matter of gender imbalance; it could lead to a lack of preparedness for the various issues we will face after unification.”

The event follows the Yoon ministry’s announcement of a new unification policy last week, which seeks “freedom-based unification” with North Korea under ROK rule.

South Korea will hold an overseas version of the Global Korea Forum in November, and at this event, the unification ministry plans “to consider gender diversity and ensure an equal ratio of male and female experts,” a spokesperson told NK News.

The ministry has budgeted over half a million dollars for the two-part Global Korea Forum, public tender data shows. The conference featured prominently ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol’s recent speech announcing his new unification doctrine, stating that the forum will be an important part of “building consensus on our unification.”

Yoon has faced criticism for a lack of diversity in his administration throughout his presidency, as well as allegations of showing favoritism toward men when hiring.

Beyond the lack of representation, the pay gap between men and women remains a prominent issue in South Korea, which has the highest gender wage gap of all OECD countries.

Edited by Bryan Betts

Updated at 9:23 p.m. KST on Aug. 22 with additional comment

16. Seoul minister denies new policy seeks unification with North Korea ‘by force’

This is NK News' and some pundit's interpretation of the 8.15 Unification Doctrine. They want to say it means absorption or unification by force. That is not the case.

Seoul minister denies new policy seeks unification with North Korea ‘by force’

Kim Yung-ho says doctrine seeks to update rather than replace long-standing roadmap, despite calling for ‘unified ROK’

https://www.nknews.org/2024/08/seoul-minister-denies-new-policy-seeks-unification-with-north-korea-by-force/

Jeongmin Kim August 22, 2024

South Korean Minister of Unification Kim Yung-ho | Image: ROK Ministry of Unification (Jan. 2, 2023)

South Korea’s unification minister denied that Seoul seeks to unify with North Korea “by force” on Thursday, a week after President Yoon Suk-yeol introduced a new policy that explicitly embraced “freedom-based unification” under ROK rule.

In a meeting with foreign correspondents, Kim Yung-ho maintained that South Korea does not pursue unification by absorption despite Yoon’s call for spreading freedom to the DPRK to create a “unified Republic of Korea.”

“If unification by absorption means a forceful way of unification through changing the status quo by force, this unification doctrine is far from that,” Kim said.

The minister added that Yoon’s unification doctrine is not a complete replacement for the preceding 1994 roadmap, which he called an “ideal model” that was drafted through bipartisan political and academic consensus and embraced by progressive administrations.

Instead, he called it an update to reflect changes in international dynamics like North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, responding to criticism that Yoon’s new policy is too conservative and partisan.

Kim also faulted North Korea for being the first to undermine a 1991 agreement on “respecting” each other’s different political systems, citing Pyongyang’s rejection of unification and claim that the two Koreas are hostile enemy countries, not compatriots.

“Looking at North Korea’s recent stance, you have to see that they are effectively nullifying it,” he said.

But he argued that the new roadmap is still within the boundaries of agreement for mutual recognition of different political systems.

“What we’re trying to say in this doctrine is common sense: North Korean residents should also be guaranteed the right to see what they should see, hear what they should hear, do what they should do and eat what they should eat. That’s the position that the president, who has a constitutional responsibility for unification towards North Korean residents, must enforce.”

Lee Sang-sin, a researcher at the Korea Institute on National Unification (KINU) told NK News that South Korea’s constitution stipulates peaceful unification, thus “unification by force is impossible anyway.”

“But since Kim Jong Un has already said that the unification based on liberal democracy as stipulated in South Korea’s constitution is essentially unification by absorption, we can say that’s how at least North Korea defines it,” he said.

The expert added that Kim Yung-ho appeared to avoid directly answering the question of whether the new roadmap is compatible with respecting the two Koreas’ different political systems.

“But since the new doctrine inherits the 1994 plan, and we haven’t explicitly declared nullification of the Basic Agreement, logically we should see it as inheriting mutual system recognition. They’re just not explicitly stating it.”

1991 Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between South and North Korea (Basic Agreement) | Image: NK News

INFORMATION ACCESS

The unification minister repeatedly stressed the need to improve North Koreans’ access to information, but he did not go into detail about how the Yoon administration aims to achieve this.

“Currently, North Korean residents’ desire for information about the outside world is increasing tremendously,” he said, citing the ministry’s report earlier this year that showed 80% of defectors watched K-drama or foreign videos within a year of escaping.

He added that the satellites were a game-changer in terms of providing information access to closed societies such as the Soviet Union, emphasizing that the “right to access information is closely related to the development of cutting-edge technology.”

“Therefore, there are discussions both domestically and overseas about whether we should apply information access technologies that mobilize cutting-edge technologies different from the existing analog methods of information access.”

BORDER DEFECTIONS AND DNC

The minister also discussed recent border defections and the lack of the term “denuclearization” in the U.S. presidential candidates’ platforms.

Kim confirmed that a defection via the Han River estuary involved a North Korean civilian, while a defection earlier this week near the west coast county of Goseong involved a DPRK soldier.

“Whether these two defections were due to our loudspeaker broadcasts or not — the cases are still under investigation, so it’s difficult for me to say at this point,” he said, referring to propaganda loudspeakers that Seoul recently resumed broadcasting.

Both were men in their twenties, he said, noting that half of the 196 defectors who settled in South Korea last year were in their 20s or 30s.

On the platforms of U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the minister said South Korea will make an effort after the election to reaffirm the goal of denuclearization with whoever wins.

“If a situation occurs where North Korea’s nuclear weapons are recognized, there’s a very high possibility of a nuclear domino effect in this Northeast Asian region,” he said.

“Then the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime would completely collapse and international politics would become even more unstable. The ROK government will actively maintain and uphold the NPT regime … and pursue the complete denuclearization of North Korea — I state this position once again.”

Edited by Alannah Hill

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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