Quotes of the Day:
"Grandfather says: When you feel powerless that's because you stopped listening to your own heart, that's where power comes from."
– Gianni Crow
"Care about what other people think and you always be their prisoner."
– Lao Tzu
"Ludicrous concepts..like the whole idea of a 'war on terrorism'. YOu can wage war against another country, or on a national group within your own country, but can't wage a war on an abstract noun. How do you know you've won? When you've got it removed from the Oxford English Dictionary?"
– Terry Jones, Monty Python team member
1. The U.S. Must Prepare to Fight China and North Korea at the Same Time
2. 1 N. Korean defects through 'neutral waters' between 2 Koreas: military sources
3. U.S. extends N.K. travel restriction by another year, cites 'serious' risk of arrest, long-term detention
4. Growing defections by high-ranking NK officials suggest possible regime collapse in near future, says defector
5. Samsung phones for NK Olympians may violate UN sanctions, Seoul says
6. N. Korea appoints new ambassador to Cuba
7. Military intelligence official referred to prosecution over alleged leak of 'black agents' info
8. North Korea’s Missile Gamble: A Dangerous New Chapter In The Korean Peninsula Crisis
9. Kim Ju Ae is unlikely to ever reign as North Korea's queen
10. South Korea tops China for shipbuilding orders as competition heats up
11. To Save His Shrinking City, a Mayor Turns to Koreans Uprooted by Stalin
12. State Dept. notes 'near consensus' against N.K. actions, for return to diplomacy
13. Exclusive: South Korean nuclear weapons would fracture US ties, defence chief says
14. N. Korea continues to install mines, barriers inside DMZ despite downpours
15. <Video Interview> The Voice of a North Korean Woman (1): 'Only Officials Thrive, Others Struggle'...Facing starvation due to the border closure, people sell off their homes to survive
16. North Korea punishes students and officials for watching banned Korean War film
17. They’re hidden from the world by a brutal regime. In Paris, they’re swapping pins
1. The U.S. Must Prepare to Fight China and North Korea at the Same Time
The most dangerous security situation for the US and its allies is a simultaneous conflict in Taiwan and on the Korean peninsula and the second most dangerous is a sequential one.
The question is if China moves against Taiwan will it pressure Kim to take action on the Korean peninsula or will Kim Jong Un seize an opportunity to achieve his objective of domination of the Korean peninsula even if he is not pressured by China? Either course of action is dangerous for the region.
It is necessary to understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime, particularly its political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies in support of the ability to ultimately use force when conditions are right to use force to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure the survival of the regime.
I think it is necessary to understand that China cannot control north Korea's actions. Kim will not act as China's proxy or puppet. Dating back to the Korean War and the Kim family regime has effectively played Russia and China against each other and it appears to be doing so today.
China will be unlikely to pressure or influence Kim to attack the South to support Chinese actions in Taiwan without substantial incentive for Kim which can only be a guarantee that his actions will be successful. But China will be unable to make such a guarantee especially if it is engaged in a conflict over Taiwan. Kim will only take action if he believes he can achieve his objectives. In order to achieve his objectives he must continue to strive to set the conditions for successful operations. And the most important condition is to drive US forces from the Korean peninsula and end US extended deterrence. While Kim may be irrational from our perspective he is smart enough to know that if he attacks into the strength of the ROK/US alliance that he will not be successful. Therefore it is imperative that the strength of the ROK/US alliance be sustained politically and militarily as the only way to continue to deter an attack. That said, deterrence is never guaranteed and Kim could choose to act, so the ROK and US and their allies, including the UN Command, must continue to conduct aggressive planning and effective training to be prepared to defend the ROK even when China attacks Taiwan.
The bottomline is that I concur with the authors that we must be prepared to fight two wars and being prepared to do so is the only way to ensure deterrence.
However the one thing the authors did not discuss is the importance of information and specifically influence. The major line effort for the ROK/US combined PSYOP forces should be focused on the north Korean People's Army (nKPA) and the second tier leadership. There should be an aggressive military PSYOP effort focus on the nKPA and its leadership. Here is the specific task I would give to the ROK/US PSYOP forces:
- Direct ROK and US military psychological operations forces to create and aggressively execute a campaign targeting the north Korean People’s Army (nKPA) with two objectives: First, to prevent an attack on the South. Second, to disobey orders directing the suppression of any collective action by the Korean people. The nKPA must decide not to attack the South nor put down any resistance to the Kim family regime.
The U.S. Must Prepare to Fight China and North Korea at the Same Time
A conflict in Taiwan is likely to draw Pyongyang in—and the U.S. military isn’t ready for it.
By Markus Garlauskas, the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and served as the U.S. National Intelligence Officer for North Korea from 2014 to 2020, and Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/06/war-north-korea-china-taiwan-kim-xi-prepare-pentagon-defense/?utm
Foreign Policy · by Markus Garlauskas, Matthew Kroenig
- North Korea
- Taiwan
- Matthew Kroenig
August 6, 2024, 8:24 AM
Last month, the U.S. Commission on the National Defense Strategy released a report proposing that the Pentagon develop a “Multiple Theater Force Construct” sized to tackle simultaneous threats in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. This will be necessary to address the growing risk of war with both China and Russia in overlapping timeframes, as one of us has previously written in these pages. Less obvious, but also important, however, is the need to address the threat of a simultaneous war with both China and North Korea.
Last month, the U.S. Commission on the National Defense Strategy released a report proposing that the Pentagon develop a “Multiple Theater Force Construct” sized to tackle simultaneous threats in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. This will be necessary to address the growing risk of war with both China and Russia in overlapping timeframes, as one of us has previously written in these pages. Less obvious, but also important, however, is the need to address the threat of a simultaneous war with both China and North Korea.
There is a real and growing risk of conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, and the Pentagon already considers war with China as its most important “pacing” threat for prioritizing future military capabilities and resources. Contrary to conventional assumptions, however, it is unlikely that such a conflict would be contained to the Taiwan Strait.
Rather, a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan would almost certainly become a region-wide war, engulfing the Korean Peninsula, and pulling in both North Korea and South Korea. This is because China would have a strong incentive to strike U.S. bases in South Korea and to urge North Korea to provoke and tie down U.S. forces there. Similarly, North Korea could choose to join the fight to preempt a feared U.S. attack, take advantage of a distracted United States to settle old scores with its rival in Seoul, or influence the outcome of a war that would have profound implications for its own security.
Further, a lack of preparedness for this two-front war scenario gives Beijing and Pyongyang an additional incentive to attack precisely to exploit this U.S. and allied vulnerability. The United States and its allies must, therefore, update their defense strategies and postures to prepare to deter, and if necessary, win, a simultaneous war against both China and North Korea.
As part of a two-year series of studies and tabletop exercises sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, we analyzed the risk of a simultaneous U.S. conflict with both China and North Korea. We concluded that a war with China would also likely become a war with North Korea, and conversely, a war with North Korea could lead China to intervene. While the second scenario has already received some attention, we believe that the most likely and dangerous path to a two-front U.S. war with both China and North Korea actually starts with a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan.
If China were to attack Taiwan, Washington would likely employ military forces operating from bases in the region against China’s attacking forces. In retaliation, or to preempt this possibility, Beijing would have a strong incentive to strike regional U.S. bases, including those in Japan and South Korea.
Even if Beijing were only to strike bases in Japan, Chinese aircraft and missiles would need to fly over or past the Korean Peninsula, threatening U.S. and South Korean forces there, while also risking being shot down by U.S. and South Korean air and missile defenses. In addition, or alternatively, China might also actively encourage North Korea to provoke or attack South Korea and Japan, in order to tie down and distract U.S. forces from the ongoing fight around Taiwan.
Furthermore, North Korea might have compelling reasons of its own to join the conflict. Seeing Washington distracted in Taiwan, Pyongyang may engage in opportunistic aggression against what North Korean leader Kim Jong Un now calls its “principal enemy,” South Korea. In addition, as the U.S. military mobilizes large-scale reinforcements to the region, Pyongyang may assess this buildup will enable a “regime change” attack on North Korea either while or after the United States defeats China. North Korea has repeatedly declared that its doctrine is to strike first if it sees a threat to its regime “on the horizon.”
Ultimately, North Korea is unlikely to stand by as its most powerful patron battles its most powerful enemy in a war that would determine the fate of the region, with profound implications for Pyongyang’s security. A Chinese defeat would likely leave North Korea dangerously isolated, whereas a U.S. defeat could drive U.S. forces from the region and dramatically improve North Korea’s military position.
Even if Korea does not become a second front, the possibility would still impinge on U.S. efforts to defend Taiwan. The need to deter and, if necessary, defeat a North Korean attack would tie down some portion of U.S. forces, attention, and resources. Seoul might even seek constraints on whether and how Washington could operate its forces within and from South Korea in a war over Taiwan, to avoid provoking China or tempting North Korean opportunism.
Many analysts wrongly assume that Washington and Beijing have a shared interest in maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula, particularly to avoid North Korean nuclear escalation, and that they would tacitly agree that North and South Korea are out of bounds in a war over Taiwan.
This is a flawed premise. It applies peacetime logic to wartime and was born out of the optimism of a more cooperative era in China-U.S. relations. If China starts a war with Taiwan, that is evidence that its leaders have decided that regional stability is no longer a top priority. Even if Beijing moves cautiously at the outset of a conflict by, for example, foregoing strikes on U.S. bases and encouraging North Korean restraint, such caution would quickly evaporate as the war continues, especially if Beijing fears that it might be losing. Moreover, while Beijing may hope to control Pyongyang, past evidence shows that Kim often marches to the beat of his own drum.
At the same time, it is likely that China would intervene in any war that starts in Korea. Like in the 1950s, China would not stand by as the United States and South Korea decisively defeat, and threaten to potentially end the regime in, North Korea. While it is unlikely that Beijing would seek to engineer a war on the Korean Peninsula, it could benefit from such a conflict by bogging down and exhausting the military resources of the United States, South Korea, and other allies.
China would have many options to hamstring a U.S. and allied campaign, including supplying Pyongyang’s war effort, establishing “buffer zones” to preclude operations near China’s borders, and intervening directly with military force. Then, when the time is right, Beijing could also take advantage of the expenditures and commitment of U.S. and allied military resources to attempt military action against Taiwan or elsewhere in the region, like in the South China Sea, before U.S. and allied militaries can fully recover. This logic holds even if Beijing and Pyongyang do not coordinate in advance, and even if Beijing is unhappy that Pyongyang’s recklessness provoked the initial conflict.
Unfortunately, the United States and its allies are largely unprepared for such scenarios. U.S. and allied capabilities, command-and-control arrangements, and posture (including forces, bases, and agreements with allies) are not well suited for simultaneous conflict with China and North Korea. Rather, all of these considerations are designed primarily for one fight or the other. This gap is reinforced by organizational biases, stovepipes, and various misalignments between allies and U.S. military warfighting headquarters.
Deterring and fighting a war with North Korea is the responsibility of the bilateral U.S.-South Korean Combined Forces Command (CFC), supported by U.S. Forces Korea and by the multinational United Nations Command (UNC). Seoul emphasizes the North Korea threat and, in an attempt to steer clear of antagonizing Beijing, avoids discussing what these commands might do in the event of a Taiwan conflict, particularly skirting the possibility that U.S. forces could operate from South Korea in a war against China. This reticence precludes systematic preparation for such scenarios, and might even encourage China to believe that it could get away with attacking Taiwan while maintaining Seoul’s neutrality and sidelining America’s forces in South Korea.
Meanwhile, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, headquartered in Hawaii, is responsible for deterring and defeating Chinese aggression in the region. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command lacks established multinational military structures like the CFC, UNC, or NATO to integrate with allies to deter and defeat China. Therefore, a multinational force to counter a Chinese attack today would have to be centered on U.S. Indo-Pacific Command with allies plugging in, or by inventing a model for coordination on the fly. Most worrisome, it is unclear how a U.S.-led multinational force defending against Chinese aggression would coordinate with or incorporate the CFC.
Indeed, this current lack of preparedness may even make a two-front war scenario more probable by giving both Beijing and Pyongyang an incentive to expand the conflict to exploit U.S. and allied vulnerabilities.
To prevent this nightmare scenario, the United States and its allies should re-conceptualize preparing for a conflict with China or North Korea as part of a broader Indo-Pacific campaign that will require deterring—and potentially defeating—both adversaries simultaneously. The first step in making this possible is to openly acknowledge that preparing to simultaneously confront China and North Korea is both prudent and vital. This will require changes to military planning, command and control arrangements, allied interoperability, and force posture.
Most importantly, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the CFC must integrate their efforts and prepare together to fight both adversaries at the same time.
To make this possible, Seoul should publicly declare that its alliance with Washington will approach threats from China and North Korea as realistically interconnected rather than artificially separated. It should ensure that there are no illusions in Beijing that South Korea will stay neutral if U.S. bases in the region come under attack from China. Similarly, Washington should ensure Pyongyang knows that the United States will maintain its ironclad commitment to help defend South Korea even in the event of conflict with China.
Next, the ongoing transformation of the U.S. military headquarters in Japan and of U.S.-Japan command and control arrangements should be explicitly designed to facilitate combined military operations with other allies—such as Australia and the Philippines—to confront both China and North Korea simultaneously.
Finally, the United States, Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and other allies and partners should openly engage in robust planning and military exercises to prepare to simultaneously fight China and North Korea in various scenarios—while protecting operational details.
Once this hard work has been completed, Washington should clearly communicate its increased preparedness in order to strengthen deterrence against China and North Korea and reassure regional allies. No one wants a simultaneous war with China and North Korea, but failing to prepare visibly and properly for this very real possibility is the surest way to bring it about.
Foreign Policy · by Markus Garlauskas, Matthew Kroenig
2. 1 N. Korean defects through 'neutral waters' between 2 Koreas: military sources
I wonder if people in the observatory south of the Han River estuary were able to observe this?
(LEAD) 1 N. Korean defects through 'neutral waters' between 2 Koreas: military sources | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 8, 2024
(ATTN: ADDS details throughout)
SEOUL, Aug. 8 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean defected to South Korea on Thursday by crossing "neutral waters" between the two Koreas, multiple military sources said.
The individual crossed the neutral zone of the Han River estuary located west of the inter-Korean land border and arrived at South Korea's Gyodong Island off the west coast early Thursday and expressed intent to defect, according to the sources.
A military source said the individual arrived on the island on foot when the tides ebbed and added that two defectors had been initially spotted, raising the possibility that one of them may have failed to cross the border.
Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said an investigation was under way by relevant authorities when asked about the defection during a session of the parliamentary defense committee.
Shin called the defection a "successful operation," noting that South Korean authorities had tracked the defector from the point of departure.
This undated file photo shows the neutral zone of the Han River estuary. (Yonhap)
In a notice to reporters, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said relevant authorities are investigating the details, including how the defection took place.
It did not provide further details but said no significant movements by the North Korean military have been detected.
Thursday's defection came around 10 months after a group of North Koreans, comprising three women and one man, crossed the eastern maritime inter-Korean border on a wooden boat in October 2023.
The inflow of North Korean defectors has continued amid chronic food shortages and harsh political oppression in the North. In the first half of the year, the number of North Korean defectors arriving in the South reached 105, slightly up from 99 the previous year.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 8, 2024
3. U.S. extends N.K. travel restriction by another year, cites 'serious' risk of arrest, long-term detention
A double edged sword. Obviously we desire people to people engagement but it is the north Korean system that is a threat to foreigners and specifically Americans.
U.S. extends N.K. travel restriction by another year, cites 'serious' risk of arrest, long-term detention | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · August 8, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Aug. 7 (Yonhap) -- The United States has extended its travel restriction for North Korea by another year, the State Department said Wednesday, citing a "serious" risk to its citizens of arrest and long-term detention in the reclusive state.
The department posted on the Federal Register the decision to extend the restriction until Aug. 31 next year. Since it was imposed in September 2017, the restriction has been extended annually.
"The Department of State has determined there continues to be serious risk to U.S. citizens and nationals of arrest and long-term detention constituting imminent danger to their physical safety," the department said in a notice on the register.
"Accordingly, all U.S. passports shall remain invalid for travel to, in, or through the DPRK unless specially validated for such travel under the authority of the Secretary of State," it added, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The restriction was introduced after Otto Warmbier, an American college student, was released from the North in a vegetative state and died in 2017. He was imprisoned in the North on a charge of subversion the previous year.
The State Department in Washington (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · August 8, 2024
4. Growing defections by high-ranking NK officials suggest possible regime collapse in near future, says defector
Some will say wild speculation perhaps. But are we prepared? What will we do if the regime collapses? What would we do if we learned today that Kim Jong Un has died? Have we sufficiently wargamed and planned for these possible contingencies?
I have been thinking about this problem for awhile:
"Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the United States Military"
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA314274.pdf
Growing defections by high-ranking NK officials suggest possible regime collapse in near future, says defector
The Korea Times · August 7, 2024
By Kwak Yeon-soo
Han Seo-hee, author of "Everyday life in South Korea" / Courtesy of Han Seo-hee
Han Seo-hee, who fled North Korea in October 2006 and settled in South Korea in March 2007, was reluctant at first when her father said they should “leave this country.” Her brother had already fled to South Korea with his girlfriend, whom their parents disapproved of.
“I have secretly watched Korean dramas, but I never imagined myself living in South Korea. It seemed like an impossible escape. I was scared that we might be caught, repatriated to North Korea and publicly executed. But my father said ‘If we stay, we could face harsh punishment. We must leave and believe in 1 percent of hope,’” she said in a recent interview with The Korea Times.
After making a dangerous journey through Mongolia, Han happily reunited with her brother and sister-in-law and she made a new life for herself as a TV personality in the South.
Having graduated from Pyongyang University of Music and Dance and being a former member of the Ministry of People's Security’s art propaganda squad, she gained fame by showing off her singing skills on Channel A’s “Now On My Way to Meet You.” During the COVID-19 pandemic, she launched a YouTube channel and most recently, published a book called “Everyday Life in South Korea.”
Han’s first Korean-language essay published in July centers on her courageous escape from North Korea, real-life experiences of adjusting to life in South Korea including her days at the resettlement center and stories related to language differences.
“Through my book, I want to improve awareness of North Korean human rights issues and promote North Korean defector integration in South Korea,” she said.
Han said the most surprising things she realized after fleeing North Korea are “dictatorship” and “human rights abuses”
“When I was in middle school, I was forced to watch public executions. I didn’t know then that that was a form of child abuse. I didn’t know about dictatorship or human rights abuses because I couldn’t compare North Korea with the outside world,” she said.
The book cover of "Everyday Life in South Korea" / Courtesy of Think Good
Han said the recent rise in high-ranking officials defecting to the South, including the latest case of North Korea’s former No.2 diplomat in Cuba Ri Il-gyu, suggests possible near-term regime collapse.
“Until the early 2000s, most defectors were from the lower class, like farmers, who fled the country because they were starving. From the mid-to-late-2000s, those who were relatively affluent and yearned for freedom started to defect to the South. I think this change suggests that regime collapse is around the corner,” she said.
Though she enjoys living in South Korea, there are some things that she misses about North Korea: train rides and the nature.
“Whenever I visited my hometown in Musan County, North Hamgyong Province, I rode a train that runs very slow. I remember looking out the window on my train ride. The nature was spectacular,” she said.
The Korea Times · August 7, 2024
5. Samsung phones for NK Olympians may violate UN sanctions, Seoul says
Sigh... so shortsighted. We want them to have SAMSUNG Smart Phones. We want them connected to the world even if only while they are at the Olympics.
Samsung phones for NK Olympians may violate UN sanctions, Seoul says
The Korea Times · August 8, 2024
Bronze medalist Lim Jong-hoon of South Korea takes a selfie with Shin Yu-bin of South Korea, gold medalists Chuqin Wang and Yingsha Sun of China and silver medalists Ri Jong-sik and Kim Kum-yong of North Korea, on the podium with their medals at South Paris Arena 4, Paris, France, July 30. Reuters-Yonhap
Experts fear controversy could taint Olympic spirit
By Kwak Yeon-soo
The South Korean government warned, Thursday, that North Korean Olympians receiving Samsung Electronics' smartphones could be violating U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolutions concerning Pyongyang's nuclear weapons and missile programs.
The issue began with reports that Samsung, an Olympic Partner sponsor since the 1998 Nagano Winter Games, handed out special “Olympic edition” Galaxy Z Flip 6 smartphones to competing athletes this year.
Radio Free Asia, a Washington-based media outlet, reported citing the International Olympic Committee (IOC) that North Korea received Samsung smartphones for its athletes.
The Ministry of Unification said smartphones are classified as prohibited goods under UNSC Resolution 2397, adopted on December 22, 2017. The ministry noted that these devices can be used for both commercial and military purposes.
“North Korean Olympic athletes receiving Samsung smartphones may violate UNSC Resolution 2397 that directly and indirectly prohibits the supply, sale and transfer of all electrical equipment to North Korea” a unification ministry official said. “The act of giving, or providing, Samsung phones could also be seen as a violation of U.N. sanctions. The IOC has the final say on this issue.”
The IOC was not immediately available for comment.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also gave a similar response. “The government will continue to make necessary diplomatic efforts in cooperation with the international community to ensure the thorough implementation of UNSC resolutions,” a foreign ministry official said.
Images of Olympic table tennis players from North Korea and South Korea taking a selfie together on the medal podium in Paris went viral in South Korea last week and was hailed as a rare show of cross-border unity.
Earlier on Monday, Rep. Park Choong-kwon, a North Korean defector-turned-lawmaker of the ruling People Power Party, claimed that the reclusive regime may confiscate all smartphones provided to North Korean Olympic athletes.
“It’s possible that North Korean authorities confiscated all their phones before opening the box,” Park said on a radio show.
At the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Games, North Korea declined to accept Samsung smartphones after the organizers offered to provide them on the condition that North Korean athletes return the phones before departing.
Bronze medalist Kim Mi-rae of North Korea, right, hands a Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 6 to silver medalist Chen Yuxi of China, left, on the podium after the women's 10-meter platform diving final during the Olympic Games in Saint-Denis, France, Tuesday. Yonhap
Experts advised South Korea to adopt a cautious approach to avoid causing any friction with the IOC, as the Olympics are intended to convey a message of peace.
“I think it’s quite regrettable that the government and media are trying to make a fuss over a smartphone. The IOC follows its own manual on how to deal with sanctions and disputes on political matters. Lodging a diplomatic protest can be seen as a huge insult for the IOC,” Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said.
“Unless the North Korean delegation refuses to receive Samsung smartphones, the IOC or Paris 2024 Organizing Committee won’t likely request them to return their phones before they go back to their home country.”
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said the North's Olympic athletes receiving Samsung phones violates not only U.N. sanctions but also U.S. sanctions.
“It makes more sense for the U.S. to raise a question, but I doubt it will because it’s not a big deal. The purpose of sanctions is to prevent human rights violations, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and adversely affect North Korea’s economy, but smartphones are not necessarily linked to serve such purposes,” he said.
Park added that Samsung smartphones are unlikely to work on North Korean networks.
“North Korean authorities will likely confiscate the athletes’ phones in order to limit access to overseas news programs about North Korea and prevent them from spreading outside information,” he said.
The Korea Times · August 8, 2024
6. N. Korea appoints new ambassador to Cuba
The Kim family regime places another stone on the Go?Baduk board trying to reclaim influence over some territory.
N. Korea appoints new ambassador to Cuba
The Korea Times · August 8, 2024
This undated photo shows the North Korean Embassy in Havana, Cuba. Yonhap
North Korea on Thursday appointed a new top envoy to Cuba, nearly five months after its former ambassador left the Caribbean nation following the establishment of diplomatic ties between South Korea and Cuba.
In a one-sentence announcement on its website, North Korea's foreign ministry said Han Su-chol has been appointed as the country's ambassador to Havana.
Han is presumed to be the vice department director of the international division at the Central Committee of the North's ruling Workers' Party of Korea, whose name has appeared in state media reports.
In February, South Korea and Cuba forged formal diplomatic ties in a surprise move that many viewed as dealing a diplomatic blow to the North, which has long maintained brotherly ties with the Caribbean nation.
The following month, then Ambassador to Cuba Ma Chol-su left the country in what some observers viewed as North Korea's display of discontent over the move.
The North has since refrained from mentioning Cuba in its state media reports. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · August 8, 2024
7. Military intelligence official referred to prosecution over alleged leak of 'black agents' info
Military intelligence official referred to prosecution over alleged leak of 'black agents' info
The Korea Times · August 8, 2024
A headquarter of the defense ministry / Korea Times file
A military intelligence official has been referred to the prosecution for allegedly leaking information of South Korean espionage agents operating overseas, the defense ministry said Thursday.
The Defense Counterintelligence Command has referred the civilian official at the Korea Defense Intelligence Command to the military prosecution on charges of violating the Military Secret Protection Act and espionage charges, the defense ministry said in a statement.
The official, whose identity is withheld, was arrested last week over allegations of handing over personal information of "black agents" to a Chinese national of Korean descent, who is possibly an informant for North Korea's intelligence agency.
Black agents refer to intelligence officials conducting undercover espionage activities overseas.
Whether espionage charges could be applied to the official has been a focal point as such charges are only valid for those who have leaked intelligence to North Korea by law, raising views that military authorities have secured signs of such a connection.
The official denied the alleged leak of military intelligence, claiming that his laptop was hacked, but the intelligence command reportedly rejected such a claim in a closed-door meeting with lawmakers last month.
The intelligence command became aware of the alleged leak around June after being informed of the case by a related intelligence agency, according to the lawmakers.
Some overseas agents have been reportedly ordered to return home over worries of their identities being exposed, triggering concerns over a possible vacuum in South Korea's intelligence capabilities.
Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, front, speaks during a plenary session of the parliamentary defense committee at the National Assembly in Yeongdeungpo District, Seoul, Aug. 8. Yonhap
Defense Minister Shin Won-sik brushed off such concerns, but said the government will take "strong" measures to overhaul the intelligence command.
"There is no major vacuum in our intelligence affairs," Shin told lawmakers in a plenary session of the parliamentary defense committee, adding most of its operations have been "normalized."
"But in light of the incident, I plan to carry out overall innovation and follow-up measures in a strong manner," he said. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · August 8, 2024
8. North Korea’s Missile Gamble: A Dangerous New Chapter In The Korean Peninsula Crisis
Excerpts:
In conclusion, the positioning of North Korea’s ballistic missile launchers near its southern border signifies a noteworthy escalation with extensive implications for regional stability and international relations. The responses from global powers and the ASEAN emphasize the intricate dynamics in play, where diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures emerge as pivotal strategies for de-escalation. The capacity of Indonesia to act as a mediator and Russia’s judicious efforts at mediation offer the potential to contribute to a well-balanced and coordinated international response.
To prevent further escalation and foster long-term stability on the Korean peninsula, it is imperative to address factors such as military capabilities, political determination, and economic considerations. Recommendations encompass maintaining diplomatic engagement, strengthening defence cooperation among allies, cultivating regional dialogue through ASEAN, implementing confidence-building measures, and exploring economic incentives to encourage North Korea’s adherence to international norms.
North Korea’s Missile Gamble: A Dangerous New Chapter In The Korean Peninsula Crisis – OpEd
eurasiareview.com · August 7, 2024
The recent deployment of 250 ballistic missile launchers by North Korea on its southern border constitutes a significant escalation in its military posture, posing a tangible threat to the stability of the Korean peninsula. This development has evoked strong responses from global powers and ASEAN countries, illuminating the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play.
An analysis of the implications of this move necessitates an understanding of the historical context, concerns regarding regional stability, and international reactions, as well as the potential for diplomatic engagement and the implementation of confidence-building measures. Consequently, it is imperative to scrutinize the potential roles Indonesia and Russia might assume in the resolution of this precarious situation.
The deployment of these missile launchers, with each launcher having the capacity to accommodate four missiles, markedly bolsters North Korea’s military capabilities. Kim Jong Un’s characterizing these launchers as a “powerful treasured sword” emphasizes their strategic significance. To fully comprehend the extent of this development, one must consider the historical tensions between North and South Korea, which have been marked by sporadic escalations and a perpetual state of military readiness. In recent years, both sides have engaged in various military demonstrations, encompassing weapons trials and military drills, thereby contributing to an exceedingly volatile security environment.
The impact on regional stability should not be underestimated. The presence of such a considerable number of missile launchers near the border heightens the risk of misjudgments and inadvertent escalations. The ramifications for security extend beyond the confines of the Korean peninsula, affecting regional economies and civilian populations. The potential for military conflict, even if unintentional, could have dire consequences, disrupting economic activities and instigating a humanitarian crisis.
The reactions from major countries illustrate the global significance of this development. The United States has expressed serious concerns, considering increased military presence and strategic adjustments in the region as potential policy responses. The US’s stance is expected to involve closer military cooperation with both South Korea and Japan, both of whom face the direct threat of North Korea’s enhanced capabilities. China, as North Korea’s traditional ally, faces a delicate balancing act.
While aiming to maintain regional stability, China also seeks to avoid alienating Pyongyang. China’s diplomatic efforts may concentrate on mediation and encouraging North Korea to engage in dialogue, despite its limited influence over Kim Jong Un’s regime. Japan’s response is characterized by heightened defence preparedness and efforts to strengthen alliances with the US and South Korea. Japan perceives North Korea’s missile capabilities as a direct threat, leading to investments in missile defence systems and increased military cooperation within the region.
Russia’s role in the Korean Peninsula crisis is multifaceted. Although Russia has historically had strong ties with North Korea, its broader regional interests often require a more balanced approach. Publicly, Russia has called for restraint and diplomatic solutions, presenting itself as a potential mediator. However, it is uncertain how much its military and economic cooperation with North Korea, including the Russia-North Korea Security Agreement, can contribute to effective crisis management. This lack of clarity raises doubts about Russia’s reliability as a key player in easing tensions on the peninsula.
The response from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), collectively and individually, underscores the regional concern over North Korea’s actions. ASEAN statements typically prioritize diplomacy and peaceful resolution, reflecting the association’s principles of non-interference and regional stability. Members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have expressed specific concerns and advocated for restraint. Indonesia, in particular, is well-positioned to play a significant role due to its diplomatic efforts within ASEAN and its historical role in mediating regional conflicts. Its involvement can be instrumental in shaping a coordinated ASEAN response that emphasizes diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures.
To navigate this complex situation, careful attention must be given to several variables. The proliferation risk posed by military capabilities and technological advancements in missile systems could potentially trigger an arms race in the region. The political will of all parties involved is crucial, as domestic political pressures can greatly influence international actions. Economic sanctions and incentives also play a critical role, necessitating a careful assessment of the efficacy of existing sanctions on North Korea and potential economic incentives for compliance and disarmament.
In conclusion, the positioning of North Korea’s ballistic missile launchers near its southern border signifies a noteworthy escalation with extensive implications for regional stability and international relations. The responses from global powers and the ASEAN emphasize the intricate dynamics in play, where diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures emerge as pivotal strategies for de-escalation. The capacity of Indonesia to act as a mediator and Russia’s judicious efforts at mediation offer the potential to contribute to a well-balanced and coordinated international response.
To prevent further escalation and foster long-term stability on the Korean peninsula, it is imperative to address factors such as military capabilities, political determination, and economic considerations. Recommendations encompass maintaining diplomatic engagement, strengthening defence cooperation among allies, cultivating regional dialogue through ASEAN, implementing confidence-building measures, and exploring economic incentives to encourage North Korea’s adherence to international norms.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.
References
eurasiareview.com · August 7, 2024
9. Kim Ju Ae is unlikely to ever reign as North Korea's queen
Interesting analysis from Aidan Foster-Carter.
And this also begs the question of what would we do if we learned today that KJU has died? Are we ready?
Kim Ju Ae is unlikely to ever reign as North Korea's queen
Odds are against Kim Jong Un's young daughter succeeding him
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Kim-Ju-Ae-is-unlikely-to-ever-reign-as-North-Korea-s-queen
Aidan Foster-Carter
August 7, 2024 05:05 JST
Aidan Foster-Carter is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University in the U.K.
Over a thousand years have passed since Korea was last ruled by a queen (in her own right, not counting consorts.) The Shilla dynasty had three, in the 7th and 9th centuries CE. Then Confucian patriarchy -- a Chinese import -- took hold, disempowering Korea's women.
Now there will be a new queen, if North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un has his way. Which he usually does.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) recently confirmed what had become plain to see. In November 2022, Jong Un took his young daughter Ju Ae to a missile launch, and since then she has accompanied him ever more often. This only means one thing, and the NIS now accepts the conclusion: Kim is introducing his eventual chosen successor.
Many resisted this interpretation, on two counts. Born in 2012 or 2013, Ju Ae is still a pre-teen despite her gravitas. And she's a girl, in a polity where sexism remains strong. North Korea's power elite is overwhelmingly male. Would they, or the masses, accept a woman in charge?
That depends, on many things. One is when. If Kim (now 40) lives as long as his grandfather Kim Il Sung, North Korea's founding leader, Ju Ae will be a middle-aged matron before she takes over. Ample time for her to learn the ropes, build networks, and secure her position.
Her grandfather had those opportunities. Kim Jong Il was groomed for decades -- first as a shadowy "Party Center," then from 1980 as an official successor -- before his father Kim Il Sung died in 1994. This gave him valuable governing experience and time to build a power base. Yet it took three years of nominal mourning (amid famine) for the second Kim to get a grip.
Oddly slack on formalities, Jong Il gave no such help to his own successor; perhaps because his messy marital history made it unclear who that would be. His eventual choice -- in the nick of time -- was not his firstborn son, Jong Nam, Tokyo Disneyland's most famous visitor.
Nor did he pick the oldest son of his final family. Jong Chol was deemed too girly -- meaning he'd rather play guitar than run a country. Kim Jong Il had three daughters, too, but they didn't get a look-in. Succession at South Korea's conglomerates, or chaebol, is similarly sexist.
Instead, as famously foretold in 2003 by a dodgy-seeming but spot-on sushi chef, the third Kim to rule was a younger son whose very existence was unknown outside, despite his years of schooling in Switzerland. (Were the NIS and CIA asleep?)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae attend the opening ceremony of the Gangdong Greenhouse in North Korea, in this picture released on March 16, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency. © Reuters
Chosen in 2009, Jong Un first appeared publicly in 2010. Barely a year later, his father had a fatal heart attack, and the young dauphin -- not yet 30 -- was pitched into the top job.
For his first six years as ruler (2012-17) Jong Un never left his country or met a foreign leader. It took him that long to secure his position: Reining in the military, restoring party supremacy, and killing rivals like his half-brother Jong Nam and uncle Jang Song Thaek. It's tough at the top in Pyongyang.
Has Ju Ae got what it takes? Time may tell, but how much does she have? For a leader whose father and grandfather died of heart disease, Kim Jong Un's lifestyle is wildly irresponsible. Visibly morbidly obese, he is often pictured smoking -- even in nurseries and hospitals.
Here too, the NIS has weighed in -- literally. Using forensic AI, they reckon Kim now weighs more than ever: 140 kilos, piling back on the pounds he had lost a few years ago. The agency claims officials are seeking foreign medicines for his diabetes and high blood pressure.
If daddy drops dead today, Ju Ae stands no chance. Medieval history -- and Game of Thrones -- show how absolute monarchies react in such cases. A smooth regency is unlikely: She is too young, and too much is at stake. Power struggles will ensue, pitting reformers who want a sane economy against military hardliners. Ju Ae will be a figurehead at best or swept aside.
As her father is now thinking hard about succession, he might also consider getting in shape. By the 2030s Ju Ae will be an adult and more adept, but still vulnerable. Will her aunt Yo Jong protect her, or is Jong Un's sister a rival wannabe queen? Either is possible.
The years ahead will show how North Koreans respond to their new Dauphine. A newly built party school seems part of the campaign to boost her. In May, top elites were pictured back in class there, watched by a smirking Jong Un. They did not look to be enjoying the experience.
Fashioning a personality cult takes time and cunning. Only now, after a decade in power, is Jong Un bigging himself up as more than a loyal acolyte of Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism.
In June attendees at a party plenum wore badges of Jong Un, not seen before. Nor since, as they vanished afterward; but they'll be back. Shall we see a Ju Ae badge one day?
Even regimes that rule by repression need positives too. North Koreans are reportedly proud of their country's nuclear and missile prowess, while fed up with food shortages. Jong Un symbolizes military might. What might Ju Ae be plausibly portrayed as standing for?
Neither North Korea nor its determined ability to swim against all tides should be underestimated. Succession is famously the autocrats' Achilles heel. No other modern state has managed two such hereditary transitions. Carefully planned as those were (the second, admittedly, in haste), both took time to bed in. For Ju Ae -- young and female, however gifted -- it will be worse.
Last month, Ri Il Gyu, a North Korean diplomat stationed in Havana, fled to Seoul. Wise move. In February, Cuba recognized South Korea, humiliating the North. Heads will roll.
Asked about Ju Ae, Ri said: "The thought of my children bowing to that little girl was unbearable."
If that view is widespread, it will be hard to foist her on a weary and ever more cynical populace. The worm may finally turn. I doubt Korea will ever see another queen.
10. South Korea tops China for shipbuilding orders as competition heats up
Strategic competition?
South Korea tops China for shipbuilding orders as competition heats up
- South Korean shipwrights took 40 per cent of global intake for ship orders last month, surpassing their Chinese peers for the second time this year
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3273414/south-korea-tops-china-shipbuilding-orders-competition-heats
Ralph Jennings
in San Francisco
+ FOLLOWPublished: 7:00am, 7 Aug 2024
South China Morning Post · August 7, 2024
Chinese firms, though, received 30 orders, compared to 18 for South Korean manufacturers.
China also consolidated its lead with new orders of 25.54 million compensated gross tonnage in the first seven months of the year, representing a market share of 63 per cent, compared to South Korea’s 8.11 million compensated gross tonnage, or 23 per cent.
00:57
World’s largest container ship leaves dry dock in Shanghai
World’s largest container ship leaves dry dock in Shanghai
Clarksons did not reply to a request for information on Tuesday, but it said previously that China overtook South Korea in 2021 as the world’s top receiver of global shipbuilding orders in terms of annual volume.
But analysts said South Korea’s move in July could reflect shifts in the way China and South Korea view shipbuilding.
China is channelling subsidies into new industries, said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at French investment bank Natixis, with hi-tech hardware and electric vehicles government priorities for economic development.
Beijing hatched its third state-backed fund, worth 344 billion yuan (US$48.2 billion), this year to support the domestic semiconductor industry.
South Korea has also added funds for its shipbuilding sector after Seoul announced plans in 2022 for US$2 billion in projects intended to support its shipping industry as global freight rates fell.
For China, South Korea is a tipping point in terms of tech cooperation with the US
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Natixis
It also offered more funding, including a US$19 billion package of incentives earlier this year, to foster its flagship semiconductor industry.
“South Korea’s shipbuilders are known for quality and price competitiveness, backed by a national political economy determined to reduce over-reliance on semiconductor exports,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
South Korean companies, defending a historic reputation for high-value ships, have stepped up their quest for new global orders as Chinese peers begin building several liquefied natural gas vessels and their country’s largest-ever cruise liner.
China would still compete with South Korea for ship orders as a way to vie with West-leaning allies, such as Seoul, on technological advances and control over supply chains, added Garcia.
“They care for a very important reason,” she said. “For China, South Korea is a tipping point in terms of tech cooperation with the US.”
They do care, but in terms of the pecking order, it’s not as important as building a new port, say in Africa
James Chin, University of Tasmania
Beijing pumped hundreds of billions of US dollars into shipping and shipbuilding in the 2000s, the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank said in May.
The China State Shipbuilding Corporation of Shanghai ranks as the world’s biggest shipbuilder.
Chinese officials are, though, intent on beating the US in hi-tech hardware and renewable energy, said James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia.
Shipping probably matters more than shipbuilding among officials in Beijing, Chin added.
“They do care, but in terms of the pecking order, it’s not as important as building a new port, say in Africa,” he said.
But South Korea’s surge in shipbuilding market share in July might reflect just “a couple of big orders”, or a seasonal adjustment, rather than long-term dominance over Chinese shipbuilders, added Chin.
South China Morning Post · August 7, 2024
11. To Save His Shrinking City, a Mayor Turns to Koreans Uprooted by Stalin
To Save His Shrinking City, a Mayor Turns to Koreans Uprooted by Stalin
Like many South Korean cities, Jecheon is being eroded by rapid aging and rock-bottom birthrates. Can ethnic Korean migrants from Central Asia turn it around?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/06/world/asia/korea-soviet-jecheon-population.html?referringSource=articleShare&smid=nytcore-ios-share&utm
Jecheon, like many other small cities in South Korea, is being eroded by rapid aging and low birthrates.Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
By Victoria Kim
Reporting from Jecheon, South Korea
Aug. 6, 2024
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The nearby mines shut down one by one. The cement business, once the city’s pride, waned. More than a dozen schools closed, as did one of the two movie theaters. The second would eventually follow.
By the time Kim Chang-gyu returned to Jecheon, South Korea, to become the mayor after four decades away, his hometown felt resigned to its decline. The town’s center was dotted with vacant storefronts, and local businessmen fretted about how tough it was to find workers.
Like many other small South Korean cities, Jecheon, cradled at the foot of two mountain ranges, is being eroded by rapid aging and rock-bottom birthrates. Other shrinking cities have tried offering money to entice newlyweds or free housing to parents of school-age children.
Mr. Kim, a retired diplomat, looked farther afield: Central Asia and the estimated half a million people of Korean descent who have been living there for nearly a century. If he could persuade enough of them to move to Jecheon — population 130,000 and shrinking — he thought they might lay the groundwork for its future.
Their forebears left the Korean Peninsula more than 100 years ago for the eastern edge of Siberia. In 1937, the Soviet Union, led by Joseph Stalin, rounded them up and deported them to what are now Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Mr. Kim hoped that even if the language and historical connections had faded, the former Soviet Koreans would be more readily accepted than other migrant workers in a country that feels strongly about blood ties, he said.
Image
Kim Chang-gyu, Jecheon’s mayor, has made videos for social media where he uses Russian to invite Soviet Koreans to move to his city.
Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
“They are a quality labor force, a quality human resource,” he said. “They are our family.”
The families the mayor’s aspirations are riding on began moving into a former college dormitory last year. There, the city’s newest transplants can be found chatting away in Russian over a lunch of Korean knife-cut noodles and kimchi. One mother, eight months pregnant, mentioned a hankering for horse meat, a Central Asian staple.
The building that was emptied of college students has come alive with dozens of families of Koryo Saram, as the people of Korean descent from former Soviet republics are known. Strollers and car seats are stashed by the doorways; a young girl rides a pink scooter down the hall.
Mr. Kim first met them as a young diplomat in Kazakhstan in 1993, in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse. Since becoming mayor in 2022, he has traveled to Central Asia to recruit people to move to Jecheon, filming social media videos in Russian.
About 130 people have moved to Jecheon under the initiative, mostly families who had already been living elsewhere in South Korea, and more than 150 others have registered to do so, according to the city.
Soviet Koreans have been coming to South Korea over the past decade, mostly to work in factories or do other jobs the locals no longer want but that can provide much higher incomes than in Central Asia.
Despite having the world’s lowest fertility rate several years in a row, traditionally homogenous South Korea has only reluctantly accepted limited numbers of migrant workers to do some of the most dangerous and difficult work. The Koryo Saram are somewhere between foreigners and compatriots.
Many of the Soviet Koreans say they haven’t felt welcomed by locals as one of their own.
Image
Ruslan Li chases his 4-year-old son through the dorm in Jecheon where he moved with his family from Kazakhstan. Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
Image
Each dorm room provided to the families has two sets of bunk beds and four desks. Mr. Li moved with his wife, Dinara Zharilkhassinova, and their sons, Amir and Damir Li, in March. Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
“The actual thing is, ‘We need manual labor, and having somebody look like us is much nicer,’” said Albina Yun, an academic who has researched the experience of the Koryo Saram working in South Korea. “So it’s, ‘Welcome, but this is your job.’”
“I don’t think we will ever belong there,” said Ms. Yun, a Soviet Korean who has worked in South Korean factories.
The Jecheon initiative offers help finding jobs and housing, support for child care and education, and pathways to permanent residency. The city is providing free housing and meals in the dorms for up to four months. Each family has a room with two sets of bunk beds and four desks.
The mayor wants about 1,000 people to settle in Jecheon over three years, which is budgeted to cost the city the equivalent of $1.4 million annually.
In March, Ruslan Li moved with his wife and two young sons into Room 207 of the dorm from Karaganda, Kazakhstan, 2,800 miles away.
Growing up, Mr. Li said, he rarely thought about Korea. He knew one phrase in Korean, the only expression his father remembered from his grandmother: Wash your feet.
Mr. Li recently started minimum-wage work at a factory producing silicon powder for batteries. He said he is grateful to the mayor for the opportunity to improve his young family’s financial future. His children, ages 2 and 4, are subsisting on oatmeal because they are not used to Korean food, but seem well adjusted at day care, he said.
He and his wife, who is ethnically Kazakh, worry that the boys will lose their connection to Kazakh culture, tenuously tethered by WhatsApp calls with grandparents in Karaganda. He hasn’t thought beyond the two years they are required to live in Jecheon in exchange for the program’s benefits.
“There are all these programs to help you adapt, but I think it will continue to feel like a foreign place,” he said.
On Sundays, some new transplants take four-hour classes on Korean language and culture that will benefit their residency applications.
Image
Some families take Korean language and culture classes on Sundays.Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
Image
The Korean language and culture classes will help on applications for permanent residency.Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
“We have them go through re-education,” the mayor said, before correcting himself. “Adjustment education.”
The Koryo Saram spent decades trying to assimilate to Russian language and society, said German Kim, a scholar at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University and an expert on the history of Soviet Koreans. In moving to South Korea, they must do that once more.
“For all these people, Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan is home,” said Professor Kim, who met with the mayor when he was in Kazakhstan, to promote Jecheon.
Kim Tai-won, a retired city worker who has lived in Jecheon all of his 64 years, said that Jecheon is in need of an infusion of people whether they have ethnic ties or not. His local middle school, which taught 600 children when he attended, dwindled to as few as two in recent years. It narrowly averted closure only when he and other alumni raised money for cash stipends for students, and a screen golf facility and pool table.
The new residents have begun to make their mark. Andzhella Tyan, 54, from Uzbekistan, last year opened an Uzbek restaurant in a vacant storefront near the center of town named after her mother, Maria.
Image
Andzhella Tyan opened an Uzbek restaurant in Jecheon last year. Credit...Jun Michael Park
Image
Dishes featuring Uzbek monuments and patterns are on display at Ms. Tyan’s restaurant, Maria.Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
The display fridge holds a half dozen brands of vodka alongside soju. She also offers kuksi, a noodle dish passed down among the Koryo Saram that has evolved distinctly from its Korean equivalent, guksu.
Ms. Tyan had been living in Jecheon for eight years and working at an auto factory but got help from the new city program to start her business. After about four years of living there, she said, it started feeling more like home than Central Asia.
“When I go back home, I feel like a guest,” she said.
When Olga Poley, a Koryo Saram from Almaty, was looking for an apartment in Jecheon for her family last year, some landlords were hesitant because of the language barrier, she said.
Image
Olga Poley, who is from Kazakhstan, attends a Korean language class with her daughter, Evangelina, in Jecheon.Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
Image
Ms. Poley, with her husband Pavel Poley, and two elder daughters, Evangelina and Sofiya, in June. She says the girls are picking up Korean.Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
She and her husband found a ground-floor apartment next to a park teeming with flowers and a sweeping view at sunset. They decorated a room in pink for their daughters — shy Evangelina, 7, and lively Sofiya, 4. Their teachers are kind and attentive, and they are quickly picking up Korean, Ms. Poley said.
With the stability newly afforded by her husband’s factory job, she began thinking of the son she’d always wanted.
In early July, she gave birth to a girl, Elizaveta — a native of Jecheon.
South Korea’s Depopulation
South Korea Wants More Babies, Just Not in These Places
May 16, 2023
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Aug. 24, 2022
As Birthrate Falls, South Korea’s Population Declines, Posing Threat to Economy
Jan. 4, 2021
Victoria Kim is a reporter based in Seoul and focuses on breaking news coverage across the world. More about Victoria Kim
A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 7, 2024, Section A, Page 4 of the New York edition with the headline: To Save Shrinking City, Mayor Entices Koreans in Central Asia. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
12. State Dept. notes 'near consensus' against N.K. actions, for return to diplomacy
Yes I think we all would like north Korea to return to diplomacy. Everyone is ready to engage in diplomacy except for Kim Jong Un.
State Dept. notes 'near consensus' against N.K. actions, for return to diplomacy | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · August 8, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Aug. 7 (Yonhap) -- A State Department spokesperson on Wednesday highlighted "near consensus" among many countries against North Korea's provocative actions and for its return to dialogue, after the United States and Australia called for the "complete" denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in a joint statement this week.
Matthew Miller, the spokesperson, made the remarks after Washington and Canberra issued the statement following their defense and foreign ministerial meeting in Annapolis, Maryland on Tuesday.
"It is a near consensus that North Korea's actions are unacceptable, and that they ought to return to diplomacy," Miller said during a press briefing.
This photo, taken on June 7, 2024, shows Matthew Miller, the spokesperson for the State Department, speaking during a press briefing at the department in Washington. (Yonhap)
Asked about Washington's approach to promote the North's denuclearization in the absence of dialogue with Pyongyang, Miller stressed the importance of cooperation with allies and partners.
"We will approach this by continuing to consult with our allies and partners and continue to make clear that it's not just the United States that rejects the nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it's not just the United States that's calling for a return to diplomacy," he said.
Miller also commented on a report that North Korea has planted a large number of landmines along the inter-Korean border amid concerns that landmines could be washed away into the South due to torrential rains.
"Obviously, we continue to believe that North Korea should stop these destabilizing actions," he said.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · August 8, 2024
13. Exclusive: South Korean nuclear weapons would fracture US ties, defence chief says
This is very important. We need to look at this issue through the lens of the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy.
Although it would seem counterintuitive, Kim likely is pleased with South Korea's discussion of and potential desire for nuclear weapons because it will contribute to one of its key objectives which is to divide the ROK/US alliance.
So all of those who are calling for South Korean nuclear weapons should understand they are providing support to Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy.
Exclusive: South Korean nuclear weapons would fracture US ties, defence chief says
https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korean-nuclear-weapons-would-fracture-us-ties-defence-chief-says-2024-08-07/
By Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith
August 8, 20244:12 AM EDTUpdated 5 hours ago
0 seconds of 15 secondsVolume 0%
South Korean nuclear weapons would hurt US ties: defense chief
SEOUL, Aug 8 (Reuters) - South Korea could rupture its U.S. alliance and shock financial markets if it started building nuclear weapons, Defence Minister Shin Won-sik told Reuters, dismissing renewed domestic calls for the country's own arsenal to deter North Korea.
As the neighbouring North rapidly expands nuclear and missile capabilities, more South Korean officials and members of President Yoon Suk Yeol's conservative ruling party have called in recent months for developing nuclear weapons.
The prospect of another term for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who complained about the cost of the U.S. military presence in South Korea and launched unprecedented talks with the North, has further fuelled the debate.
But Shin, a former three-star army general who also served as a lawmaker in Yoon's party, said having a homegrown nuclear arsenal risked devastating fallout to the South's diplomatic standing and economy, akin to what analysts called Black Monday this week for the stock market's worst losses since 2008.
"You'll face a huge crack in the U.S. alliance, and if we withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, it would bring various penalties, starting with an immediate shock in our financial market," he said in an interview.
Shin acknowledged that the debate among politicians and foreign policy experts was a sign that many South Koreans were still anxious about American extended deterrence - the U.S. military capability, especially its nuclear forces.
But the allies' push to strengthen that deterrence is the "easiest, most effective and peaceful" way to counter the North's threats, he said.
PARADIGM SHIFT
Intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China and the Ukraine war have triggered a sweeping shift in the post-Cold War paradigm, putting South Korea near the centre of the turmoil and complicating its calculations, Shin said.
"Even in Northeast Asia, there are forces who are openly seeking to change the status quo by force, and we are at the forefront, directly affected," Shin said, speaking at his office in Seoul, the South Korean capital.
By clinching a strategic partnership treaty with Russia this year, North Korea has gone from "being a headache in Asia to a global villain," while Moscow tainted its own national prestige by "begging for help" from Pyongyang and betraying the international community with its war against Ukraine, he said.
Item 1 of 5 South Korean Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik looks on during an interview with Reuters in Seoul, South Korea, August 7, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Soo-hyeon
[1/5]South Korean Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik looks on during an interview with Reuters in Seoul, South Korea, August 7, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Soo-hyeon Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
South Korea responded by warning that it could consider arming Ukraine with lethal weapons, a potential shift from its policy of sticking to humanitarian and economic assistance, if Russia provides the North with advanced weapons technology.
Shin said North Korea received Russian assistance with a rocket engine used in a failed attempt in May to launch a spy satellite.
But he did not consider that to cross a "red line," saying he was focused instead on any transfer of technology linked with intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, as well as anti-air weapons, radars, tanks and fighter jets.
From last year until Aug. 4, North Korea has shipped more than 12,000 containers to Russia, enough to carry about 5.6 million 152-mm artillery shells, Shin said.
The actual number would vary because North Korea has sent three or four kinds of shells of different sizes, including rockets, and separately also supplied dozens of short-range missiles, he said.
While Yoon's administration has been more open in echoing Washington's calls for "like-minded nations" to stand together in the face of tension with China and Russia, Shin said South Korea has not discussed joining other U.S. allies and partners in naval exercises in the South China Sea, where Beijing has clashed with neighbours over maritime claims.
TENSION ACROSS THE KOREAN BORDER
Tension between the neighbours has flared in recent weeks, after North Korea floated thousands of balloons containing trash in protest against South Korean activists sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets.
Seoul resumed its loudspeaker broadcasts near the border for the first time in 2018, blaring news and K-pop music, which Shin called an "effective, stinging" form of psychological warfare.
Among newly added news was the surprising defection of Ri Il Gyu, who worked as a senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba, and the participation of Jin, a member of the K-pop supergroup BTS, in the Paris Olympics' torch relay.
"I understand that North Korea has been struggling to block BTS' popularity as there was a craze among young people imitating their dances," Shin said, declining to identify the source of the information.
"The loudspeaker campaign would have a long-term impact as a key catalyst in driving change in society, and could potentially provide a momentum for the North's denuclearisation if we work more with the international community."
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Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Clarence Fernandez
14. N. Korea continues to install mines, barriers inside DMZ despite downpours
All of these recent north Korean actions must be understood through the regime's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies.
N. Korea continues to install mines, barriers inside DMZ despite downpours | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · August 8, 2024
SEOUL, Aug. 8 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has continued to install land mines and barriers within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas despite recent heavy downpours and mine explosions, Seoul's defense ministry said Thursday.
North Korea has deployed large numbers of troops in front-line areas to plant mines and erect walls presumed to be anti-tank barriers since April, according to South Korean military officials.
Such activities within the DMZ have continued to be detected even after mine explosions and as seasonal rains recently battered the North, the ministry said in a policy report to the National Assembly.
Last month, the ministry said North Korea suffered multiple troop casualties inside the DMZ due to mine explosions and heat exhaustion.
North Korean troops plant mines in a front-line area, in this undated photo provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on June 18, 2024. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The ministry also said North Korea is preparing for an additional military spy satellite launch following its failed attempt in May, when its satellite-carrying rocket exploded soon after liftoff.
Pyongyang has vowed to launch three spy satellites into orbit this year after successfully launching the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite last year.
Meanwhile, the report said North Korea has launched 37 ballistic missiles on eight occasions this year, while firing 11 cruise missiles on six instances.
To bolster defense readiness, South Korea has expanded combined exercises with the United States, it said, staging 10 large-scale combined drills in the first half of this year -- double the figure over the same period the previous year.
"North Korea is continuously advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities despite opposition from the international community," Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said in a parliamentary session of the National Defense Committee.
"(It) is seriously threatening peace and stability not only on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region but also Europe and the entire world."
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · August 8, 2024
15. <Video Interview> The Voice of a North Korean Woman (1): 'Only Officials Thrive, Others Struggle'...Facing starvation due to the border closure, people sell off their homes to survive
Video at the lnk:
https://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/2024/08/movie/interview-woman-1/
<Video Interview> The Voice of a North Korean Woman (1): 'Only Officials Thrive, Others Struggle'...Facing starvation due to the border closure, people sell off their homes to survive
asiapress.org
Since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, understanding North Korea's internal situation has become increasingly difficult. The Kim Jong-un regime sealed borders, strictly blocking movement of people and goods. Over the past four years, many North Koreans have died from hunger and disease. What is the current state of this humanitarian crisis? How do North Koreans view Kim Jong-un's declaration of 'cutting ties with South Korea'? In April 2024, we interviewed a female reporting partner from northern North Korea. With her permission, we present her candid account in two parts. (By KANG Ji-won)
She reported that the border closure caused more deaths than COVID-19 itself. With business opportunities gone, she stated, "There's no way to make money. People search for jobs, and if lucky, earn enough for a meal or two."
She added, "During the 'Arduous March', those lacking survival skills perished. Now, everyone except officials suffers. Households without workers or with sick members are reduced to homelessness. Many have sold their homes for food and now have nothing."
※ The 'Arduous March' refers to the late 1990s period when economic collapse and Kim Il-sung's death triggered social chaos. Over a million people reportedly died from starvation and disease.
The video confirms the dire situation of North Koreans facing this humanitarian crisis.
※ ASIAPRESS communicates with its reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.
asiapress.org
16. North Korea punishes students and officials for watching banned Korean War film
The hard work of propaganda and psychological operations. Sometimes you just do not get it right as is the case for the regime's Propaganda and Agitation department which surely oversaw the development of this project:
Excerpts:
Kim Jong Un commissioned the film in 2021 after watching the Chinese-made Korean War blockbuster “The Battle at Lake Changjin,” which depicts one of the conflict’s pivotal battles – fought between Chinese and U.N. forces – that resulted in heavy casualties for the Chinese but forced the U.N. to retreat from the northern half of the Korean peninsula.
Kim was so moved by that film, that he “strongly scolded” the country’s propaganda filmmakers, clamoring for them to make a similar film, the official said. Kim even provided $10 million for production costs.
“Kim Jong Un himself carefully guided the content of the movie and every facial expression of the actors on site. But the movie became caught up in controversy and was eventually banned,” the official said.
When it was released in February it was an instant hit, and theaters were still showing it months later..
Despite its popularity though, “72 Hours” did not have the desired effect.
People began to wonder how North Korea was able to capture Seoul in only three days if South Korea started the war with a surprise attack on the North as Pyongyang claims, the official said.
“Does it make sense that the United States, which had prepared for a long time and started the war by surprise, lost Seoul in three days?” he said. “The movie only deepens the suspicion that the Korean War was not started by the United States but by a North Korean surprise attack.”
North Korea punishes students and officials for watching banned Korean War film
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/72-hours-korean-war-film-banned-in-north-korea-students-officals-punished-08072024172705.html
‘72 Hours’ was a huge domestic hit, but it was banned only 5 months after its release
By Moon Sung Hui for RFA Korean
2024.08.07
Movie poster for the North Korean War movie “72 Hours."
@NorthNKAAL via X
North Korea has kicked four university students out of school, sentenced another to eight months of hard labor, and fired government officials because they secretly watched a big budget North Korean propaganda film that was banned only five months after its release, residents and officials in the country told Radio Free Asia.
The blockbuster “72 Hours,” directed by the country’s leader Kim Jong Un, tells the story of the opening moments of the 1950-53 Korean War – which it says South Korea started – and it details how the North Korean army captured Seoul in only three days.
In reality, it was the North that attacked first, but Pyongyang maintains that the first sacking of Seoul during the conflict – it changed hands four times – was part of a counteroffensive.
RFA reported that the film, which debuted in February, was banned last month without explanation.
Residents told RFA Korean that the film remains immensely popular and people are confused by the ban, because the film is made in North Korea and glorifies the military.
“The son of the deputy chairman in charge of food administration at the People’s Committee who secretly stored the movie on a USB stick was expelled from the Workers’ Party,” a college student in the northern province of Ryanggang told RFA Korean on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
The deputy chairman’s son was a student at Hyesan Medical University and last month he and some other students watched the film together, he said.
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In a separate incident, the chairman and a group of colleagues watched the film together.
“The deputy chairman ... and four staff of the food administration department who watched the movie were fired from their positions,” he said. “Four students from the University of Agriculture and Forestry of Hyesan Medical University were punished by expulsion.”
The son was sentenced to eight months labor because he purchased the film and was responsible for showing it to the others, the student said. During the trial it was found that he bought the USB flash drive that contained the film in the local marketplace in the city of Hyesan for 12 yuan (US$1.68).
There are likely hundreds of people in Ryanggang who have either been punished or are under investigation over the film, a government official told RFA on condition of anonymity for safety reasons.
“As the number of people subject to punishment increases, resentment among residents is also increasing, so they’re out here saying, ‘Why did the authorities make a movie that you can be punished for watching?’”
Keeping up with the Chinese
Kim Jong Un commissioned the film in 2021 after watching the Chinese-made Korean War blockbuster “The Battle at Lake Changjin,” which depicts one of the conflict’s pivotal battles – fought between Chinese and U.N. forces – that resulted in heavy casualties for the Chinese but forced the U.N. to retreat from the northern half of the Korean peninsula.
Kim was so moved by that film, that he “strongly scolded” the country’s propaganda filmmakers, clamoring for them to make a similar film, the official said. Kim even provided $10 million for production costs.
“Kim Jong Un himself carefully guided the content of the movie and every facial expression of the actors on site. But the movie became caught up in controversy and was eventually banned,” the official said.
When it was released in February it was an instant hit, and theaters were still showing it months later..
Despite its popularity though, “72 Hours” did not have the desired effect.
People began to wonder how North Korea was able to capture Seoul in only three days if South Korea started the war with a surprise attack on the North as Pyongyang claims, the official said.
“Does it make sense that the United States, which had prepared for a long time and started the war by surprise, lost Seoul in three days?” he said. “The movie only deepens the suspicion that the Korean War was not started by the United States but by a North Korean surprise attack.”
The official said that this logical gap is the reason why the film was banned. In a previous RFA report, other sources suggested that the ban was because the film made references to places in South Korea, or because it uses the word “unification,” which does not jive well with North Korea’s recent policy toward South Korea that defines it as a separate hostile country, rather than part of the same race of people.
Whatever the reason, people did not take the ban seriously, the official said.
“They thought it was not a big deal because it’s made by us. It’s not a film from South Korea,” he said. “Also, Kim Jong Un himself directed it.”
Because the film was so widely distributed on portable media after the ban, “the director of the Ryanggang Province Film Distribution Center, cell secretary, technical manager and the head of the city and county film distribution department were also arrested,” he said.
Translated by Claire S. Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong.
17. They’re hidden from the world by a brutal regime. In Paris, they’re swapping pins
They’re hidden from the world by a brutal regime. In Paris, they’re swapping pins
ByJordan Baker
August 7, 2024
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/they-re-hidden-from-the-world-by-a-brutal-regime-in-paris-they-re-swapping-pins-20240806-p5jzu7.html?utm
At every Olympics, swapping national “pins” becomes the universal language at the athletes’ village. This year, there’s one pin everyone wants, and it’s less to do with the dull pin itself than the demure, skittish athletes handing it out.
North Korea, the mysterious hermit kingdom that locks its citizens away from the rest of the world, has sent 14 athletes to the Games. They are staying in the village and to everyone’s surprise, they have been allowed pin-related mingling with other athletes.
South Korean table tennis players, wearing blue, take a so-called victory selfie on the podium with a team from North Korea.Credit:AP
The pin’s design is flag-heavy and humourless, unlike the smiling bubble tea from Chinese Taipei or the golden coffee cup from Colombia. But any outside contact for these athletes, even under eagle-eyed supervision, is a brow-raising concession from North Korea.
“I know this pin could be better but the aura coming off it?” a Dominican swimmer said on social media. “I tried to talk to them, but they didn’t know a lot of English so they just pointed at a pin of mine they wanted, and we traded. I would’ve given any pin for this.”
Australian tennis player Daria Saville posted this image of the North Korean team pin on Instagram.Credit:Daria Saville / @daria_sav
There’s been no softening of North Korea’s hostility to most of the outside world. Tensions with its southern neighbour have not waned, either.
A few months ago, the north (officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) was sending hundreds of large balloons containing defaced Hello Kitty clothing and human waste parasites over the border.
And yet in Paris, North Korea is using the Olympics to try to show a friendlier face to the world.
Athletes waved from their boat in the opening ceremony and have been speaking to foreign athletes, although an athlete who had an interaction with a DPRK competitor told this masthead the woman had to check with what appeared to be a chaperone before answering a question.
Bronze medal-winning DPRK table tennis players posed for what’s become known as a victory selfie on the podium (allowed for the first time these Games) with their silver-winning counterparts from South Korea.
At the wrestling on Monday, a group of team officials cheered their weightlifters from packed media stands. As gymnast Simone Biles won her third gold of the games, DPRK’s smiling An Chang-ok waved for the cameras and hugged at least one fellow finalist.
She, too, had been swapping pins; her lanyard had a badge with Chinese, Czech and Irish flags on it.
North Korea’s history at the Olympics dates back to 1964, although it attends other competitions so rarely that competitors don’t know what to expect from a DPRK team. It boycotted the 1984 Games in Los Angeles with the rest of the communist bloc, and the 1988 ones in Seoul. It skipped Tokyo, too, due to COVID fears.
For a tiny, isolated country, it has done well. Before Paris, it had won 54 medals including 16 golds, which puts it ahead of countries such as rich Monaco and more populous nations like Nepal and Bangladesh, which have never won any. So far, it has won three medals at these Games, and has a shot at more.
They’re strong in wrestling, boxing, diving, gymnastics and table tennis. However, their weightlifters could not compete because they failed to attend a qualifying event last year.
North Korean officials watch their athletes wrestle this week in Paris.Credit:Jordan Baker
Its image-conscious leaders use the Olympics to counter the prevailing view that North Korea is an extreme totalitarian state, which allows its citizens no freedom, has gulags and re-education camps for dissidents, and invests in nuclear weapons while people starve.
There’s no domestic propaganda value; the Games are not being televised in North Korea, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported.
Daria Saville posted this image of North Korea’s quarters in the village.Credit:Daria Saville / @daria_sav
At the 2000 Sydney Games and again at the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in 2018, the two Koreas were allowed to march together. They’ve even fielded joint teams. A selfie in Rio – like the one in Paris – hit the headlines, too.
“ I think that Kim Jong-un is also using the Games to indicate that he has no problem with the South Korean or American people, but rather with the two governments,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King’s College London.
The sport diplomacy comes with a risk, however. Athletes competing for totalitarian regimes have for decades used a rare trip outside their country to defect, the most recent being a Belarusian sprinter who sought refuge at the Polish embassy in Tokyo.
There were regular defections during the era of the Soviet Bloc. In Melbourne, in 1956, the Hungarians arrived to news that the Russians had brutally quelled an uprising in their country. A water polo match between Russia and Hungry became known as the “blood in the water” episode, after a Hungarian player was hit by a Russian and left the pool with blood streaming from his head.
The iconic selfie of South Korea gymnast Lee Eun-ju and her North Korean rival Hong Un-jong from Rio 2016.Credit:
Dozens of Hungarian athletes defected, mostly to the United States.
“North Korea will make sure that no athlete or official is left alone, to avoid defections,” said Pacheco Pardo.
“And North Korea also has a concentration camp system that means that anyone thinking about defecting will know that their family will be punished. Thus why North Korea has generally been able to avoid defections by athletes, in contrast to other poor communist countries such as Cuba.”
As they interact with Australians and Americans and South Koreans, they’ll get a glimpse of life in the free world. They’ll go back to total control, but as athletes – particularly if they’re successful – their lives will not be as desperate as some of their countrymen.
“North Korean athletes and officials are among the country’s elite, allowed to live in Pyongyang,” said Pacheco Pardo.
“Thus, they know that Paris and other cities and countries overseas where they normally compete are more developed than their own. So they will be able to see that their country is less developed and not as free with their own eyes, but they won’t necessarily be surprised.”
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De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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