Quotes of the Day:

"The US, and the free world, are on the defensive. Our policy as a nation has been reactive; that is, we have waited to act until forced by events to do so, rather than anticipating events and being ready to take action when they arrived." 

– Murray Dyer, 1959

“The most decisive act of judgement which the Statesmen and General exercises is rightly to understand the War in which he engages.”

- Carl von Clausewitz

"You think it will never happen to you, that it cannot happen to you, that you are the only person in the world to whom none of these things will ever happen, and then, one by one, they all begin to happen to you, in the same way they happen to everyone else."

- Paul Auster

1. Yoon to visit Britain, U.S., Canada next week

2. U.N. ambassador stresses need for S. Korea to co-sponsor resolution on N.K. human rights

3. Conservative, anti-Japanese groups clash overnight at rally near symbolic peace statue

4. US and South Korean troops clear city streets in wake of Typhoon Hinnamnor

5. World grits teeth after North passes law about nuke strikes

6. North Korea’s nuclear strike bet

7. Yoon's NK initiative hits snag as Pyongyang legalizes nuke weapons

8. [INTERVIEW] Korea faces challenges similar to 2008 financial crisis: Ex-Fed economist

9. Can Seoul and Tokyo mend ties?

10. North Korea threatens nuclear action if Kim Jong Un assassinated: report

11. N. Korea launches crackdown on privately operated barbershops, beauty salons

1. Yoon to visit Britain, U.S., Canada next week

Global pivotal state.

(LEAD) Yoon to visit Britain, U.S., Canada next week | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 12, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; ADDS photo)

SEOUL, Sept. 12 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol will depart for Britain next week to attend the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II on a trip that will also take him to New York for the U.N. General Assembly and Canada for a bilateral visit, his office said Monday.

Yoon will attend the state funeral for Queen Elizabeth II on Sept. 19 at Westminster Abbey in London (local time), the office said. Earlier, Yoon expressed his condolences over the passing of the queen, who died last Thursday at the age of 96 after reigning for 70 years.

His attendance will mark the first time that a sitting South Korean president will attend the funeral of the leader of another country since 2015.

During a press briefing, National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han stressed that the purpose of Yoon's trip is to strengthen solidarity with partner countries that share the same core values and to expand the "foundations of economic diplomacy."

Yoon will then travel to New York for the U.N. General Assembly and deliver a keynote speech on Sept. 20 in which he is expected to reiterate his call for the denuclearization of North Korea, according to his office.

Eyes are on whether Yoon will unveil more details to his "audacious" initiative to offer Pyongyang economic aid in exchange for denuclearization steps.

Officials said they were in talks with U.S. and Japanese officials to set up one-on-one summits with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

If the summit meeting with Biden is held, Yoon is likely to discuss the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that excludes electric vehicles assembled outside North America from tax credits.

"We do not know yet whether (the Japanese summit meeting) will be in the form of a bilateral summit or a pull-aside meeting but we are pushing for the meeting," Kim told reporters at the briefing.

In Canada, he will meet Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to discuss ways to boost cooperation in economic security.

Canada is a key global producer of resources such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt required in manufacturing secondary batteries and electric vehicles, according to the presidential office.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 12, 2022

2. U.N. ambassador stresses need for S. Korea to co-sponsor resolution on N.K. human rights

I doubt he was speaking out of school. I am pretty confident this will happen. I think South Korea is getting prepared for a strong human rights upfront approach aadn I hope the alliance will presented a united front on this.

U.N. ambassador stresses need for S. Korea to co-sponsor resolution on N.K. human rights | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 12, 2022

NEW YORK, Sept. 12 (Yonhap) -- South Korea should co-sponsor an annual resolution condemning North Korea for its human rights abuses and urging the regime to improve the situation, Seoul's new ambassador to the United Nations said.

Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook made the remark in an interview with Yonhap News Agency on Sunday, stressing that North Korean human rights is a "very important issue in terms of safeguarding universal values."

"For the past few years, we have been clearly passive in addressing the resolution on North Korean human rights ... this has to return to normal," he said.

The United Nations Human Rights Council has adopted a resolution condemning North Korea's human rights abuses for the 20th consecutive year since 2003.

South Korea, however, has not participated as a co-sponsor of the resolution since 2019 amid its efforts to avoid tensions with the North and resume inter-Korean dialogue under the previous liberal government.

Hwang will likely seek to co-sponsor the resolution as early as next year since he assumed his post as the first ambassador to the U.N. under the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol administration in July.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 12, 2022

3. Conservative, anti-Japanese groups clash overnight at rally near symbolic peace statue

Conservative, anti-Japanese groups clash overnight at rally near symbolic peace statue | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 12, 2022

SEOUL, Sept. 12 (Yonhap) -- Scuffles plagued the site of a statue of a girl symbolizing victims of Japan's wartime sexual slavery Sunday night as members of a right-wing organization raided the site and clashed with anti-Japanese activists guarding the statue.

The four-hour melee happened as members of New Freedom Solidarity held a surprise rally near the statue around 10 p.m. Sunday, demanding the breakup of a civic organization established to help victims of the sexual enslavement of Korean women during Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule.

Clashes continued past midnight as the leader of the right-wing organization attempted to force his way near the statue and anti-Japanese activists tried to keep him away. One protester was taken to the hospital for exhaustion.

Although police separated the two sides with police lines, they continued to clash with loudspeakers and caused inconvenience to people nearby before the conservative group finally left the area at around 2:10 a.m. Monday.

The Seoul Jongno Police Station believes both groups violated the Assembly and Demonstration Act and plans to call in the activists for investigation.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 12, 2022

4. US and South Korean troops clear city streets in wake of Typhoon Hinnamnor

US and South Korean troops clear city streets in wake of Typhoon Hinnamnor

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · September 9, 2022

U.S. and South Korean troops clean up Ocheon Market in Pohang, South Korea, Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022, in the wake of Typhoon Hinnamnor. (Dakota Fortuna-Chun/U.S. Marine Corps)

U.S. service members joined their South Korean counterparts to clean up one of the places hit hardest in South Korea by Typhoon Hinnamnor.

Starting Wednesday morning about 50 Marines and sailors from Camp Mujuk and nearly 200 South Korean marines of the 1st Marine Division hauled debris and shoveled mud in nearby Pohang city.

The typhoon killed 11 people after making landfall Monday evening in South Korea, according to a Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters update on Thursday. Seven died in a flooded underground parking lot at an apartment in Pohang, 175 miles from Seoul on the southeastern coast.

The Americans and South Koreans worked through the debris in local markets and historical areas of the city, where they routinely train together.

“Because of the strength of the alliance and our relationship with the [South Korean marines], we were able to swiftly provide aid to the surrounding community following the damages caused by Typhoon Hinnamnor,” 1st Lt. Austin Gallegos, spokesman for U.S. Marine Corps Forces Korea, told Stars and Stripes in an email Friday.

Service members clear mud and debris from Ocheon Market in Pohang, South Korea, Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022, in the wake of Typhoon Hinnamnor. (Dakota Fortuna-Chun/U.S. Marine Corps)

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol greets U.S. Marines taking part in Typhoon Hinnamnor cleanup efforts at Pohang's Ocheon Market, Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022. (South Korean presidential office)

The Marines and sailors answered a call for help from the Pohang mayor’s office, which fielded a blizzard of aid requests from local citizens, according to Gallegos.

South Korea’s presidential office declared special disaster zones in Pohang and nearby Gyeongju city, designations that mean the state will cover much of the recovery and cleanup costs.

Around 1,300 South Korean troops have been directly involved in recovery efforts since the typhoon made landfall, South Korea’s 1st Marine Division said in a news release Tuesday.

The South Korean service members pulled debris from municipal drains, ferried first responders in amphibious assault vehicles and delivered water pumps and other heavy equipment to restore the city’s infrastructure.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visited Pohang on Wednesday to survey the damage and greeted service members helping in the recovery effort. Yoon said he felt “solidarity and hope” for the country after seeing firsthand the volunteers who came together to restore the city and comfort the victims.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · September 9, 2022

5. World grits teeth after North passes law about nuke strikes

​I do not think we should get all excited about this. What this actually does is provide clarity and allows us to confirm our assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime (political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting capabilities) This should allow us to make ​realistic policy and develop a workable plan B strategy (human rights upfront, influence operations, and pursuit of a free and unified Korea).

Monday

September 12, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

World grits teeth after North passes law about nuke strikes

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/12/national/northKorea/korea-north-korea-pyongyang/20220912183303649.html

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivers remarks during a meeting of the North's rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly, last Thursday. The country's state-run Korean Central News Agency on Friday quoted Kim as saying that his nuclear weapons weren't up for negotiation. [YONHAP]

Seoul said it's maintaining its North Korea denuclearization policy even after Pyongyang adopted a law on the use of preemptive nuclear strikes for self-defense.

“Our government is determined to pursue North Korea’s complete denuclearization,” a spokesperson for Seoul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told local reporters on Friday, shortly after Pyongyang’s state-run media ran a report on the new law.

Seoul will “unwaveringly take a holistic approach to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat and nuclear development," the spokesperson continued, "and pursue denuclearization through dialogue and diplomacy.”

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's office hasn't released any statement on the issue, but his People Power Party called the North’s new law “deeply regrettable.”

Last Thursday, North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), adopted a new law stipulating that the North will “automatically and immediately” launch a nuclear strike to attack the origin of any provocation if the “command and control system” of its nuclear forces is in danger of an attack, an apparent reference to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to an English-language report from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The law states that a nuclear strike could be triggered if an attack on its nuclear weapons were imminent; if the country or its people were under threat; or to gain the upper hand during war.

The KCNA said the law was passed last Thursday during a SPA meeting that was held just before the 74th anniversary of North Korea’s founding on Friday.

During the meeting, Kim was quoted by the KCNA as saying that there will be “absolutely no denuclearization, no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade.” He said he would not surrender his nuclear weapons even if his country faced 100 years of sanctions.

“The aim of the United States is not just to eliminate our nuclear weapons themselves but also ultimately to bring down our regime anytime,” Kim said.

For the North’s nuclear policy to be adjusted, the “political and military environment” around the Korean Peninsula must change, Kim said.

In response to North Korea’s new law, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said during a media briefing in Washington on Friday that the United States would maintain its policy as well.

“The United States remains focused on continuing to coordinate closely with our allies and partners to address the threats posed by DPRK and to advance our shared objective of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” she said.

DPRK is short for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“We have no hostile intent toward the DPRK,” the press secretary added. “We continue to seek diplomacy and are prepared to meet without preconditions. The DPRK continues to not respond.”

Kim’s remarks at the SPA meeting were made on the same day that South Korean Unification Minister Kwon Young-se proposed inter-Korean talks to hold reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War.

The two Koreas have held 21 rounds of family reunions since the historic 2000 summit between South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

But no meetings of separated family members have taken place since 2018 when 89 elderly South Koreans met with their 185 North Korean relatives at the Mount Kumgang resort in North Korea.

According to the Unification Ministry, nearly 70 percent of 133,391 first-generation divided family members who registered for the reunion program with the South Korean Red Cross have passed away while waiting to be reunited with their relatives in the North.

Only 20,604 South Koreans, about 15 percent, have met their North Korean relatives through the 21 reunions held to date.

BY LEE SUNG-EUN [lee.sungeun@joongang.co.kr]

6. North Korea’s nuclear strike bet

Conclusion:

South Korea and the U.S. must find a creative solution to the nuclear conundrum while sternly responding to North Korea’s military provocation. More importantly, Kim must understand that the more nukes he has, the more vulnerable his regime becomes.

The Yoon and Biden administrations have an opportunity for a new approach to the Korean security challenge. The Alliance way ahead is an integrated deterrence strategy as part of the broader strategic competition that is taking place in the region. There is a need for a Korean “Plan B” strategy that rests on the foundation of combined ROK/U.S. defensive capabilities and includes political warfare, aggressive diplomacy, sanctions, cyber operations, and information and influence activities, with a goal of denuclearization but ultimately the objective must be to solve the “Korea question” (e.g., the unnatural division of the peninsula) with the understanding that denuclearization of the north and an end to human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will only happen when the Korea question is resolved that leads to a free and unified Korea, otherwise known as a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

I am going to beat this horse: Deterrence, defense, denuclearization, the Korea questions (unification), using a superior form of political warfare based on a rock-solid ROK/US alliance and realistic assumptions of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.

Monday

September 12, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

North Korea’s nuclear strike bet

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/12/opinion/editorials/North-Korea-Kim-Jongun-nuclear-strike/20220912194323952.html

During the Chuseok holiday, South Koreans were embarrassed at an abrupt announcement by North Korea. After adhering to nuclear development over the past 40 years by cheating the international community, North Korea defined itself as a nuclear power, vowed to not abandon nuclear weapons, and set a decree allowing the country to launch a nuclear attack on enemies. On Friday, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the North’s mouthpiece, said the decree had been adopted by the Supreme People’s Assembly the previous day. The KCNA also introduced a speech by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in which he stressed that North Korea will not denuclearize nor compromise in any negotiation with the United States, as America aims to topple his regime.

The eleven-item decree entrusted Kim with an “absolute authority to order the use of nuclear weapons” and stipulated that North Korea would automatically launch a nuclear strike when its leadership faces danger. The decree made it clear that North Korea can use nuclear weapons under many circumstances such as when it has noticed an “imminent attack” from outside or when their use is unavoidable to “prevent a prolonged war” or when the country faces a “crisis for the survival of the country and people.”

Kim’s statement translates into a possible use of nuclear weapons even in times of an internal rebellion, not to mention a preemptive nuclear strike against enemies. Such a reckless nuclear threat is unprecedented. North Korea said it will not use nukes if non-nuclear states like South Korea do not join forces with other nuclear states to attack the North. Kim’s proclamation of non-compromise on its nuclear weapons and the irreversibility of its nuclear power status is nothing but a demonstration of his willingness to start only nuclear arms reduction talks with the U.S., not denuclearization talks.

North Korea has carried out four nuclear tests — and tens of ICBM launches — since Kim took power in 2012. With cover from China and Russia amid the U.S.-China contest and the Ukraine war, North Korea will most likely conduct its seventh nuclear test.

Fortunately, South Korea and the U.S. are to hold an Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting between the two countries’ vice-ministerial defense and diplomatic officials on Friday in Washington. But the nuclear crisis has escalated to a new level. Kim has resorted to a nuclear option in the face of the country’s worst-ever economic crisis originating with international sanctions, floods and the shutdown of its border for Covid-19. His move is aimed at drawing international attention again with a return to the negotiating table in mind.

South Korea and the U.S. must find a creative solution to the nuclear conundrum while sternly responding to North Korea’s military provocation. More importantly, Kim must understand that the more nukes he has, the more vulnerable his regime becomes.

7. Yoon's NK initiative hits snag as Pyongyang legalizes nuke weapons

As I said, I welcome the new statement because it provides clarity and focus. Now we can get on with developing a realistic strategy.

Yoon's NK initiative hits snag as Pyongyang legalizes nuke weapons

The Korea Times · September 12, 2022

A photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivering a speech during a parliamentary session in Pyongyang, North Korea, Thursday. Yonhap 

Kim Jong-un aims to win recognition as 'nuclear state' through legislation: experts

By Nam Hyun-woo

President Yoon Suk-yeol's recently introduced "audacious initiative," aimed at enticing North Korea to scrap its nuclear weapons, seems to have already hit a snag as Pyongyang has guaranteed the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes in its new law.

Experts believe that North Korea's legislation has to do with its efforts to win international recognition as a "nuclear state" while South Korea's current denuclearization-based overture may require a change in tempo.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Friday that the Supreme People's Assembly, the regime's rubber-stamp parliament, passed a new law that will enable Pyongyang to automatically launch a nuclear strike if attacked. This replaced a 2013 law which first outlined the North's nuclear status.

"The status of our country as a nuclear weapons state has become irreversible," KCNA quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as saying. "(We will) never give up nuclear weapons and there is absolutely no denuclearization, and no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade in the process."

This deals a hefty blow to the South Korean president's plan, dubbed "audacious initiative," to entice North Korea's denuclearization with economic aid.

Last month, Yoon proposed an aid plan that would include food, energy, trade infrastructure, agricultural technologies, medical infrastructure and financial support programs, in return for North Korea's return to denuclearization talks.

If that happens, the presidential office has said denuclearization talks and economic support will be pursued simultaneously, saying the South Korean government "will consider providing aid in the infant stage of talks if the North shows its sincerity."

President Yoon Suk-yeol delivers a speech during a ceremony to mark the 77th anniversary of National Liberation Day at the presidential office in Yongsan District, Seoul, Aug. 15. 

During his speech, Yoon proposed economic aid to entice North Korea's denuclearization. Joint Press Corps As the North dashed Yoon's proposal with the new law, experts said that South Korea may consider changing its entire North Korea policy.

"The North's legislation of its right to use nuclear weapons can be seen as a direct refusal to Yoon's audacious initiative," said Yang Moo-jin, president at the University of North Korean Studies. "Yoon may not be able to bring a drastic change to his initiative because it was an announcement of South Korea's North Korea policy direction to not only North Korea but also the entire world. Instead, he should consider controlling the pace of his policies."

Yang said Yoon's initiative has been a paradox from the beginning, because the South Korean leader has been maintaining a hawkish stance on the North, stressing the importance of deterrence against Pyongyang's missile threats and even mentioning preemptive strikes on the regime during his election campaign. Against this backdrop, Yoon should seek a balance in his North Korea approach, blending peace overtures into his conservative strategy, experts said.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said that the North has sent a message that it will no longer deal with the denuclearization-based approach of Seoul and Washington, and the two countries may consider a "flexible approach such as lowering their requirements for the North or engaging in arms reduction talks."

"Even though Yoon's requirements (of the North showing its sincerity for denuclearization) were easier for the North to accept compared to that of his conservative predecessors, the regime clearly showed that it does not have any intention of denuclearization," Hong said. "Given that Yoon cannot abandon the ultimate goal of denuclearization, he can think of lowering the requirements further, such as changing the concept to reciprocal security."

Hong cited arms reduction talks as a realistic option that Seoul and Washington can pursue for reciprocal security.

"Arms reduction or arms control is a broader concept of denuclearization," Hong said. "Though it is difficult for the South to acknowledge the North as a nuclear state due to political reasons, the regime's fast pace of developing nuclear weapons is increasing the necessity of considering ways to control or reduce existing nuclear weapons."

The Korea Times · September 12, 2022

8. [INTERVIEW] Korea faces challenges similar to 2008 financial crisis: Ex-Fed economist

[INTERVIEW] Korea faces challenges similar to 2008 financial crisis: Ex-Fed economist

The Korea Times · September 12, 2022

Containers are piled up at a harbor in Korea's largest port city of Busan, Wednesday, when the won-dollar exchange rate surged above the 1,380 won-level for the first time in more than 13 years. A weakening won is blamed for a trade deficit Korea suffered for five consecutive months through August. Yonhap

Kim says prolonged trade deficit could be perceived as sign of economic crisis

This article is the first in a series of interviews with economic experts to analyze the status of the Korean economy and make policy suggestions. ― ED.

By Yi Whan-woo

A noted economic expert has called on the Korean government to raise its guard against a possible economic crisis, as the Korean economy is facing challenges similar to those of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Kim Jin-il, a former U.S. Federal Reserve economist, pointed out that the five-month-long trade deficit Korea has suffered, which is rare, could be perceived from abroad as a sign of a possible crisis if it is protracted.

Also an economics professor at Korea University, Kim assessed that Asia's fourth-largest economy is currently undergoing turbulent times that are comparable to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

​ ​

"The negative balance of trade can raise doubts over Korea's economic fundamentals outside the country if it persists," Kim said in a recent interview with The Korea Times.

Kim Jin-il, a former U.S. Federal Reserve economist and current Korea University economics professor / Courtesy of Kim Jin-ilHis remarks came as Korea logged a trade deficit for the fifth consecutive month in August ― for the first time since 2008.

The deficit amounted to a record $9.47 billion in August, as imports soared 28.2 percent year-on-year to $66.15 billion to outpace exports, which have been slowing down in terms of growth. Outbound shipments increased 6.6 percent year-on-year to $56.6 billion.

"The trade deficit is not at a worrisome level so far, but it could be perceived as a sign of serious damage to the Korean economy if it does not improve," Kim said.

The trade balance is one of the multiple economic indicators that has deteriorated to its worst level since either of the two events that battered the Korean economy: the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

These indicators include: the growth rate, consumer prices, the won-dollar exchange rate, the foreign exchange reserve and short-term foreign debt.

While the Bank of Korea (BOK) lowered its 2022 economic growth forecast to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent in its latest revised outlook, concerns linger over inflation as consumer prices jumped 5.7 percent in August from a year earlier. The Korean currency declined below the 1,380-won level against the U.S. dollar for the first time in more than 13 years on Wednesday, while the ratio of short-term foreign debt compared to Korea's foreign exchange reserves has surged to its highest level in 10 years.

These unfavorable circumstances faced by Korea have prompted concerns that the country may again be on the brink of an economic crisis.

During a meeting with economic ministers on Aug. 24, President Yoon Suk-yeol vowed to prevent another financial crisis, citing the rapid depreciation of the Korean won against the dollar and the ballooning trade deficit.

Kim said that Korea in 2022 is comparable to how it was during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, because both were affected by economic crises initiated by outside factors ― the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2019 and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 ― that rippled through the entire world.

"On the other hand, the risks during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis were limited to Asia, and in certain circumstances, only to Korea," Kim said.

Asked whether Korea is capable of withstanding a possible third economic crisis, Kim said it is "uncertain," considering the fact that pandemic-driven risks are new to the entire world.

He pointed out that the external risks in 2022 ― namely the Ukraine war, supply chain bottlenecks, the U.S.-China trade row, China's growth slowdown, and hawkish U.S. credit tightening ― are notable for taking place simultaneously.

"Such a scene is different from the past, making it more difficult for the country to cope," he said.

Asked about possible countermeasures by the government, Kim said, "The risks are out of the government's hands as they come from outside."

He emphasized that the government should set policy priorities over whether it will opt for growth over inflation or companies over workers. But he said that it is important to seek a social consensus in this process.

Kim forecast that the Fed's hawkish approach to rate hikes is likely to continue until U.S. inflation shows signs of falling below 2.5 percent, given that its inflation target is set at 2 percent.

He expects that the aggressive rate hikes by the U.S., which may cause capital flight in the short term, are unlikely to trigger a foreign capital outflow in the medium to long term, since the BOK started its monetary tightening earlier than the Fed and has signaled continuous, incremental rate hikes.

"Under the circumstances, the BOK is urged to stick to its policy to win the market's trust," he said, calling on the central bank to pursue a preemptive, persistently long series of incremental rate hikes until the Fed's hikes are over.

Kim was a Fed economist from 1996 to 1998 and again from 2003 to 2011.

The Korea Times · September 12, 2022

9. Can Seoul and Tokyo mend ties?

Not easily and probably not soon (or soon enough).

Excerpts:

It is clear that North Korea is using its relationships to the best of its ability. A similar, united front is necessary to confront North Korea. But will South Korea and Japan really be able to effectively work together on this and other issues?

The recently-elected Yoon Suk-yeol government in Seoul has tried to improve ties with Tokyo, but disputes such as the comfort women issue, Japan’s wartime use of forced labour in Korea, and the 2018 radar lock‑on controversy, among others, remain unresolved. These issues limit the extent to which the South Korean government can actively cooperate with Japan.

Such limitations are shown by the debate on whether or not to send a South Korean ship to the 2022 Japanese Naval Fleet Review. There is controversy among the Korean public due to Japan’s use by its navy of the Rising Sun Flag – seen by many as a symbol of Japan’s militaristic past.

Although Washington would like Seoul and Tokyo to get along, such obstacles won’t be soon overcome. North Korea’s provocations, meantime, are likely to increase in the coming months, making a united front necessary to counter any potential threats coming from Pyongyang.

Can Seoul and Tokyo mend ties? | Lowy Institute

lowyinstitute.org · by Gabriela Bernal

The relationship between South Korea and Japan seems to be moving in a positive direction, with two high-level meetings held this week between officials from both sides. Although dialogue seems to be increasing, several points of contention remain unresolved between the neighbours.

It was the first time in six years when vice-ministers from each country sat down on Wednesday for defence talks on the sidelines of the three-day Seoul Defence Dialogue. South Korean Vice Defence Minister Shin Beom-chul and Japan’s Vice Defence Minister for International Affairs Oka Masami reportedly emphasised the need for greater security cooperation involving the United States and also brought up the North Korea nuclear issue.

On the same day, trilateral talks between the nuclear envoys of South Korea, Japan, and the United States were held in Tokyo. During the meeting, the parties agreed to strengthen security ties in the face of potential “provocation” from North Korea in the form of a seventh nuclear test.

The possibility of North Korea conducting a nuclear test is not small, especially given what Pyongyang would see as relatively favourable circumstances. Washington is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and its rivalry with Beijing, while North Korea has the support of both China and Russia at the UN Security Council. Even if Pyongyang tests another nuclear weapon, the passing of additional sanctions at the UN would be unlikely. This allows North Korea the chance to continue with its provocations and lose relatively little as a result.

It is clear that North Korea is using its relationships to the best of its ability. A similar, united front is necessary to confront North Korea.

During their Wednesday talks, the nuclear officials said that the door for negotiations with North Korea remained open. Nevertheless, deterrence seems to be the preferred way of handling the situation. The three parties are not themselves in agreement about the extent of the denuclearisation they are calling for, with US special envoy for North Korea Sung Kim calling for the “complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula”, while Japan’s Takehiro Funakoshi and other officials cited the need for the “complete denuclearisation of North Korea”.

A lack of consistency in such important wording does not send the message of reliable negotiating partners to Pyongyang. For North Korea, any denuclearisation agreement would have to cover the entire peninsula, not just the northern portion. Moreover, simply stating that “the door to dialogue remains open” does nothing to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. This will only happen if the United States makes a significant shift in its North Korea policy, such as allowing for partial sanctions relief. Without a change at this level, Pyongyang is highly unlikely to go back for talks just for the sake of “diplomacy”.

Nuclear envoys, Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director General for Asian and Oceanian Affairs Takehiro Funakoshi (centre), US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Sung Kim (left), and South Korea’s Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Kim Gunn, in Tokyo on 7 September (Kazuhiro Nogi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

South Korea and Japan are also likely concerned at news from the United States that Russia could be about to buy “literally millions” of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. Although the actual purchase remains unconfirmed, experts say that Pyongyang is able and willing to deliver arms to Russia, and that this would be logistically possible given existing railways.

Russia and North Korea have previously hinted at using North Korean labour in Ukraine. If such a deal went through, it would supply the regime in Pyongyang with much-needed foreign currency. This would also help lessen the impact of sanctions.

It is clear that North Korea is using its relationships to the best of its ability. A similar, united front is necessary to confront North Korea. But will South Korea and Japan really be able to effectively work together on this and other issues?

The recently-elected Yoon Suk-yeol government in Seoul has tried to improve ties with Tokyo, but disputes such as the comfort women issue, Japan’s wartime use of forced labour in Korea, and the 2018 radar lock‑on controversy, among others, remain unresolved. These issues limit the extent to which the South Korean government can actively cooperate with Japan.

Such limitations are shown by the debate on whether or not to send a South Korean ship to the 2022 Japanese Naval Fleet Review. There is controversy among the Korean public due to Japan’s use by its navy of the Rising Sun Flag – seen by many as a symbol of Japan’s militaristic past.

Although Washington would like Seoul and Tokyo to get along, such obstacles won’t be soon overcome. North Korea’s provocations, meantime, are likely to increase in the coming months, making a united front necessary to counter any potential threats coming from Pyongyang.

lowyinstitute.org · by Gabriela Bernal

10. North Korea threatens nuclear action if Kim Jong Un assassinated: report

If we want to have a chance of halting a nuclear strike after KJU is assassinated then we need to do two things.  

First the ROK must establish a policy that says north Korean general officers who do ont attack the South and maintain control of their forces and WMD will have a place in a free and unified Korea. They must be shown an alternative path to their survival

Then we need a strong information and influence campaign that targets these military commanders to ensure they know the policy.

As an aside, per the good work of Sungmin Cho (now a professor at APCSS) the most likely assassination scenario will one along the lines of the Park CHung Hee assisasintaiton in 1979. It will come from within the regime by someone who has access and placement and acts alone. a " Mr. X" so to speak. "Anticipating and Preparing for the Potential Assassination of Kim Jong-Un" by Sungmin Cho http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467975_add_file_7.pdf

North Korea threatens nuclear action if Kim Jong Un assassinated: report

foxnews.com · by Peter Aitken | Fox News

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North Korea has adopted a new doctrine that would see the country "automatically and immediately" use nuclear weapons in the event it felt that its Chairman Kim Jong Un had died as the result of assassination.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) adopted its new "Policy on Nuclear Forces" on Thursday. The new nuclear posture addressed a number of situations, but the most concerning one for international officials focused on what would happen in the event that "command and control" over the nuclear force were in danger because of an "attack."

"In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces including the starting point of provocation and the command according to the operation plan decided in advance," the policy said, according KCNA Watch.

The policy also applied to "a nuclear or non-nuclear attack … on state leadership" and "important strategic objects of the state."

US SAYS RUSSIA PURCHASING ROCKETS, ARTILLERY SHELLS FROM NORTH KOREA

A spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that U.N. chief remained "deeply concerned" about the new policy, which is "contrary to decades of efforts" to reduce nuclear proliferation.

FILE - In this photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends a meeting of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 28, 2022. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA," which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File) (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

"The DPRK, by pursuing its nuclear weapons program, including its development of missiles using ballistic missile technology, continues to disregard the resolutions of the Security Council to cease such activities," the spokesman said in a statement to reporters.

KIM JONG UN SUGGESTS NORTH KOREA MAY BEGIN COVID VACCINATIONS AS WINTER APPROACHES

"The Secretary-General reiterates his call to the DPRK to resume dialogue with the key parties concerned with a view to achieving sustainable peace and the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the spokesman continued.

FILE - In this photo distributed by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, walks around what it says is a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the launcher, at an undisclosed location in North Korea on March 24, 2022. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

The new policy appears to have passed as part of Kim’s renewed hard line stance to "never" part with the nuclear capabilities his country has worked for decades to build, nor to use them as a bargaining chip for denuclearization with the United States.

NORTH KOREA SLAMS UN HUMAN RIGHTS EXPERT AS ‘US PUPPET’

Kim stressed in a statement Friday that the policy has "great significance in drawing a line" for his country in opposition to foreign powers, according to state-run media. He added that the country’s nuclear stance and policies would not change until the "political and military conditions of the Korean Peninsula" do as well.

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol waves from a car after the Presidential Inauguration outside the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, May 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Politico that this course of action was "quite predictable" and "underscores the dangers of the U.S. and South Korea focusing on decapitation strategies."

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol had recently speculated during a TV debate on Thursday that a "preemptive strike" on North Korea might be necessary in order to curb war and "protect world peace."

"We are not trying to wage war, but to curb it," Yoon said, adding, "The kill chain, which is called a preliminary blow, is to protect peace."

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Justice Party presidential candidate Sim Sang-jeung argued that Yoon’s stance is dangerous as "a preemptive strike is going straight to war. It is like a declaration of war," according to the Korea Herald.

Peter Aitken is a Fox News Digital reporter with a focus on national and global news.

foxnews.com · by Peter Aitken | Fox News

11. N. Korea launches crackdown on privately operated barbershops, beauty salons

Cracking down on any capitalist like endeavor. It is a threat to the regime.

N. Korea launches crackdown on privately operated barbershops, beauty salons

Unlike state-run shops, private barbershops and beauty salons pay no taxes, so operators can take home all the money they make

By Lee Chae Un - 2022.09.12 10:00am

dailynk.com

A barbershop at the Munsu Water Park in Pyongyang (Uri Tours, Creative Commons, Flickr)

North Korea recently launched a sweeping crackdown aimed at privately operated barbershops and beauty salons.

A Daily NK source in North Hamgyong Province said Tuesday that police in Chongjin have been shutting down privately operated barbershops and beauty salons since late August.

“Along with the crackdown, the authorities have been forcing private barbers and hairdressers to work for service providers operated by the state,” he said.

While there are state-run barbershops and beauty salons in North Korea, there are also illegally operated private ones.

Unlike state-run shops, which must pay taxes to the state, private barbershops and beauty salons pay no taxes, so operators can take home all the money they make.

Because of this, many North Koreans have been operating illegal barbershops and beauty salons as a way to make a living with the collapse of the official rationing system after the “Arduous March” of the 1990s.

Private barbershops and beauty salons are particularly popular with young people because the shops will cut their hair however they like.

Since state-run barbershops and beauty salons offer a menu of set styles, less trendy middle-aged people tend to use them. The poor use them, too, because they are relatively cheap.

However, North Korea is cracking down hard on privately operated barbershops and beauty salons, considering them an illegal means to make money and “anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior” that promotes “individualism.” This suggests the authorities aim to collect the public’s money for state coffers by eliminating illegal facilities, making people use state-run facilities instead.

In late August, the Chongjin police began its intensive crackdown on the commercial cutting of hair in homes or streetside, warning that “privately operated barbershops and beauty salons are a product of individualism and anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior that promotes social instability and disorder.”

In particular, the city’s police are threatening those caught in the crackdown with KPW 100,000 in fines, and possible criminal punishment depending on the severity of the infraction.

“Having played dumb when the people were starving to death, the government is now stealing people’s livelihoods, too,” claimed the source. “People are reacting by saying the state should instead be grateful that people are getting by on their own without asking the nation for anything.

“The government is using the police to crack down on people running private barbershops and beauty salons, but there’s also a lot of resistance,” he continued, adding, “Ultimately, it looks like the state is simply fanning tensions between the police and the people.”

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

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