Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"If a man neglects education, he walks lame to the end of his lime."

- Plato

“A man is like a fraction, whose numerator is what he is, and whose denominator is what he thinks of himself. The larger the denominator, the smaller the fraction.”

-Leo Tolstoy.

"Now I see the secret of the making of the best persons. It is to grow in the open air and to eat and sleep with the earth."

- Walt Whitman

1. N. Korea's Kim heads to Russia for summit with Putin as concerns grow over military cooperation

2. White House urges N. Korea not to provide weapons to Russia

3. N. Korea's Kim arrives in Russia for rare summit with Putin

4. North Korea’s Kim is in Russia to meet Putin, as both are locked in standoffs with the West

5. The Power of Solid Alliances for Good

6. Kim Jong Un Travels to Russia, His Bulletproof Train Spotted Ahead of Putin Meeting

7. Can North Korea’s ammunition offer Russia support in Ukraine war?

8. A timeline of the complicated relations between Russia and North Korea

9. Kim-Putin’s Vladivostok bromance may risk global security, from Europe to Asia

10. Kim Jong Un arrives in Russia to meet Putin amid economy, security concerns

11. Kim's entourage suggests military focus for Putin summit

12. Don't sidestep human rights in North, UN rapporteur urges

13. Korea's independence heritage agency poised to launch anti-Japan campaign

14. N. Korean state security officer shot by female detainee with his own gun

15. North Korea’s Coming Breakout

16. Opposition leader set to appear for questioning over suspected illegal remittance to N. Korea

17. Activists take new approach to stop China from sending back N. Koreans

1. N. Korea's Kim heads to Russia for summit with Putin as concerns grow over military cooperation

This stopover would appear to be a good location for some JDAMs (note sarcasm).

Excerpt:

If the train is confirmed to have headed for Russia's far eastern port city of Vladivostok, the trip is expected to take more than 20 hours, with a long stopover at the Russia-North Korea border to switch wheels that fit Russian railway tracks.

(3rd LD) N. Korea's Kim heads to Russia for summit with Putin as concerns grow over military cooperation | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · September 12, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with details, photos)

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, Sept. 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin were set to hold a summit in Russia, the two nations have said, with Kim's armored train heading for Russia in what could be a significant indication over growing military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.

North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) confirmed early Tuesday that Kim had left Pyongyang for Russia aboard his train Sunday afternoon, accompanied by leading officials of the North's ruling party and the armed forces.

The KCNA said Kim "left here by his train on Sunday afternoon to visit the Russian Federation," without saying whether the train had crossed its border.

The KCNA reported late Monday that Kim "will meet and have a talk with Comrade Putin during the visit." The Kremlin also confirmed that Kim will visit Russia "in coming days" at the invitation of Putin, according to the Russian news agency TASS.

Photos released by the North's state media showed Kim being accompanied by Pyongyang's Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, as well as top military officials Ri Pyong-chol and Pak Jong-chon.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 12, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un leaving Pyongyang for a trip to Russia on his special train. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Still, it remains unknown about exactly when and where Kim and Putin would hold a meeting and Kim's whereabouts also remain unclear. The Kremlin said that negotiations between North Korean and Russian delegations are planned during Kim's visit, with discussions over the possibility of a one-on-one meeting between the leaders.

Before North Korea and Russia confirmed Kim's trip to Russia, South Korean officials said Monday the armored train presumably carrying Kim appeared to have departed for Russia.

"The intelligence authorities believe the train presumed to be carrying Kim Jong-un is moving to Vladivostok," a senior official told Yonhap News Agency. Another senior official confirmed that Kim appears to have departed Pyongyang and is headed to Russia.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo prior to their meeting at the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia, on April 25, 2019, in this file photo released by the official Korean Central News Agency the following day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

If the train is confirmed to have headed for Russia's far eastern port city of Vladivostok, the trip is expected to take more than 20 hours, with a long stopover at the Russia-North Korea border to switch wheels that fit Russian railway tracks.

If confirmed, the trip would mark the first such visit to Russia by Kim in nearly 4 1/2 years and his first trip abroad since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pyongyang has recently been seeking to bolster military ties with Moscow in the wake of growing security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan.

The New York Times earlier reported that Kim plans to travel to Vladivostok, possibly by armored train this month, for talks with Putin about the possibility of supplying Russia with ammunition and weaponry for its war in Ukraine and other military cooperation.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 12, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un saluted by soldiers ahead of a trip to Russia. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

As both North Korea and Russia confirmed Kim's visit to Russia, the U.S. called on Pyongyang not to provide any weapons to Russia.

Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council (NSC), underscored that North Korea and Russia will likely continue discussing a potential arms deal during the Kim-Putin meeting.

"As we have warned publicly, arms discussions between Russia and the DPRK are expected to continue during Kim Jong-Un's trip to Russia," Watson told Yonhap News Agency when asked to comment on Kim's visit to Russia.

"We urge the DPRK to abide by the public commitments that Pyongyang has made to not provide or sell arms to Russia," she added.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 12, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (C) talking to officials ahead of a trip to Russia. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · September 12, 2023

2. White House urges N. Korea not to provide weapons to Russia

Somehow I do not think Kim will heed these warnings.

(2nd LD) White House urges N. Korea not to provide weapons to Russia | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · September 12, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from a state department spokesperson in last 3 paras)

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 (Yonhap) -- The White House called on North Korea not to provide any weapons to Russia on Monday, ahead of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's widely anticipated meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council (NSC), underscored that the two countries will likely continue discussing a potential arms deal during Kim's ongoing trip to Russia.

"We urge the DPRK to abide by the public commitments that Pyongyang has made to not provide or sell arms to Russia," she added.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

Police and military personnel are spotted at a rail station platform in the Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok on Sept. 11, 2023. North Korea's state media reported on the day leader Kim Jong-un will soon visit Russia to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin. (Yonhap)

Pyongyang reported earlier that Kim will soon visit Russia at the invitation of Putin.

South Korean officials said a special train believed to be carrying the reclusive North Korean leader appeared to have left for Russia.

NSC coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby noted the possibility of an arms deal between Pyongyang and Moscow, citing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's trip to Pyongyang in July, which he said was followed by a trip of some 20 Russian officials to North Korea.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stressed that any arms deal between North Korea and Russia would directly violate United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions that prohibit any arms trade with North Korea.

"(An) arms deal between the DPRK and Russia would directly violate a number of U.N. Security Council resolutions. We urge the DPRK to cease its arms negotiations with Russia, and we are taking action directly to exposing and sanctioning individuals and entities working to facilitate arm deals between Russia and the DPRK," Jean-Pierre said earlier.

This photo, released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on July 28, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) talking with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L, sitting) during a reception for the minister and his military delegation in Pyongyang the previous day. The delegation visited the North to attend a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of the Korean War armistice agreement on July 27. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Jung Pak, deputy assistant secretary of state for multilateral affairs and deputy special representative for North Korean affairs, expressed concerns over the North Korean leader's visit to Russia, saying it may be the "final step" before North Korea begins providing large amounts of weapons to Russia.

"This can only be seen as the next and maybe final step in a series of conversations between Russia and the DPRK to finalize a growing arms transfer relationship, in which Russia receives significant quantities and multiple types of munitions from the DPRK for the Russian military to use against Ukraine," Pak said of a possible Kim-Putin summit in a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington.

"Despite the DPRK's aggressive posture, the United States has remained clear that we have no hostile intentions for the DPRK. We are not seeking conflict. Our goal remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," she added.

Jung Pak, U.S. deputy special representative for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, is seen speaking at a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington on Sept. 11, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

The U.S. diplomat also expressed concerns over growing cooperation between North Korea, Russia and China, noting that Beijing and Moscow are already shielding Pyongyang from the consequences of repeatedly violating multiple UNSC resolutions by launching ballistic missiles in "unprecedented scale."

"Look no further than July when the Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and the PRC Politburo member Li stood beside Kim Jong-un as they celebrated U.N. Security Council resolution-prohibited ballistic missile advancements being paraded through central Pyongyang," Pak told the seminar.

"Such public support is backed by practical support. Moscow and Beijing have been shielding the DPRK from deserved condemnation at the U.N. Security Council for repeated and egregious violations of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions following scores of ballistic missile tests and attempted space launches in unprecedented scale," she added.

China and Russia have vetoed more than a dozen attempts by the U.S. and other countries at the UNSC to hold North Korea accountable for its provocative missile tests, while accusing the U.S. of escalating tension in the region by holding joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan.

"Unlike the DPRK's ballistic missile launches and other activities, our joint exercises are consistent with international law. U.S. and Republic of Korea military exercises are routine and defensive in nature, and we reduce risk and promote transparency by announcing the exercises in advance, including dates and activities," said Pak.

A state department spokesperson later reiterated that any arms transfer between North Korea and Russia would be in violation of UNSC resolutions.

"So we are going to monitor very closely the outcome of this meeting," Matthew Miller told a daily press briefing when asked about a potential Kim-Putin summit.

"I will remind both countries that any transfer of arms from North Korea to Russia would be in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and we, of course, have aggressively enforced our sanctions against entities that fund Russia's war effort and we will continue to enforce those sanctions and will not hesitate to impose new sanctions appropriate," he added.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · September 12, 2023

3. N. Korea's Kim arrives in Russia for rare summit with Putin

Excerpts:

Hours after the KCNA report, Jeon Ha-kyou, a spokesperson at South Korea's defense ministry, gave an assessment that Kim's train had crossed into Russia early Tuesday, adding that the ministry is closely monitoring for possible talks between the two countries over arms trade.

"Considering that a large number of military personnel is accompanying him, (we) are closely monitoring whether negotiations over arms trade between North Korea and Russia, and technology transfers will take place," Jeon told reporters.

Russian media outlet "Vesti Primorye" also reported that Kim's train arrived at the Russian border city of Khasan on Tuesday and is on its way to the Far Eastern city of Ussuriysk, citing a railway source.

(6th LD) N. Korea's Kim arrives in Russia for rare summit with Putin | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · September 12, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS details in paras 12-13; TRIMS)

By Lee Minji and Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Sept. 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrived in Russia early Tuesday, an official at South Korea's defense ministry said, as Kim is set to hold a rare summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with concerns growing over a possible arms deal between Pyongyang and Moscow.

The KCNA said Kim "left here by his train on Sunday afternoon to visit the Russian Federation."

Hours after the KCNA report, Jeon Ha-kyou, a spokesperson at South Korea's defense ministry, gave an assessment that Kim's train had crossed into Russia early Tuesday, adding that the ministry is closely monitoring for possible talks between the two countries over arms trade.

"Considering that a large number of military personnel is accompanying him, (we) are closely monitoring whether negotiations over arms trade between North Korea and Russia, and technology transfers will take place," Jeon told reporters.

Russian media outlet "Vesti Primorye" also reported that Kim's train arrived at the Russian border city of Khasan on Tuesday and is on its way to the Far Eastern city of Ussuriysk, citing a railway source.

The train passed through Khasan station early Tuesday and is already in the Primorsky Krai region, according to the Russian media report.

Photos released by the North's state media showed Kim being accompanied by Pyongyang's Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, as well as top military officials Ri Pyong-chol and Pak Jong-chon.

Still, it remains unknown exactly when and where Kim and Putin would hold a meeting.

It was widely speculated that Kim could travel to Russia's far eastern city of Vladivostok to meet Putin as he previously did in 2019.

Kim's armored train has crossed the railway bridge over the Razdolnaya River in Primorsky Krai and is moving north, Russian news service RIA Novosti said early Tuesday, raising the possibility that he could meet Putin in a different region.

Hours later, Russian news agencies and local sources said the train passed through the Ussuriysk railway station and is moving toward the city of Khabarovsk.

Russia's Interfax news agency said the summit was likely to take place Wednesday in the Amur region, where the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a space launch center, is located.

The trip marked the first such visit to Russia by Kim in nearly 4 1/2 years and his first trip abroad since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pyongyang has recently been seeking to bolster military ties with Moscow in the wake of growing security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan.

As both North Korea and Russia confirmed Kim's visit to Russia, the U.S. called on Pyongyang not to provide any weapons to Russia.

Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, underscored that North Korea and Russia will likely continue discussing a potential arms deal during the Kim-Putin meeting.

"As we have warned publicly, arms discussions between Russia and the DPRK are expected to continue during Kim Jong-un's trip to Russia," Watson told Yonhap News Agency when asked to comment on Kim's visit to Russia.

"We urge the DPRK to abide by the public commitments that Pyongyang has made to not provide or sell arms to Russia," she added.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) arrives at a station in Pyongyang on Sept. 10, 2023, before boarding a train to visit Russia to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in this photo released Sept. 12 by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · September 12, 2023

4. North Korea’s Kim is in Russia to meet Putin, as both are locked in standoffs with the West

While there's a lot of gnashing of teeth over this meeting, we should remember that this meeting is really a result of the failed policies and strategies for both Russia and north Korea.

Putin's War in Ukraine is failing. Russia's economy is failing. Russia needs north Korean military help.

north Korea 's strategy has failed. He has a failed economy. He has failed to extort concessions from the ROK and US and international community (no sanctions relief). He has failed in his major objective to split the ROK/US alliance (and the trilateral cooperation of JAROKUS is growing).

Kim is failing to activate his objectives across the board and hsi capability to achieve his objective through the ultimate use of force is declining.

I am also slightly curious about analysts who say that Kim will demand food from Russia. Why is no one calling out the $560 million Kim sapnt on 60-70 missile tests in 2022 while the people needed some $417 million in food aid (at market prices). I doubt Kim will be demanding food. Oil, yes. Advance technology for missiles and nuclear weapons, yes (miniaturization and re-entry technology). Intelligence (to include satellite imagery -recall the two recent failed satellite launches) and of course hard currency. Food? maybe - but it is not a priority for the regime - nuclear and missile development is prioritized over the welfare of the Korean people in the north. The ROK, the US, and the international community need to call out Kim for this.

So the bottom line is we should be calling out this upcoming meeting as a result of failures by the leaders of Russia and north Korea,

North Korea’s Kim is in Russia to meet Putin, as both are locked in standoffs with the West

AP · September 12, 2023

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea’s Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia on Tuesday for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin where they are expected to offer each other increased support in their escalating standoffs with the West.

Kim is expected to seek Russian economic aid and military technology in exchange for munitions to be used in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

After decades of complicated, hot-and-cold relations, Russia and North Korea have drawn closer since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The bond has been driven by Putin’s need for war supplies and Kim’s efforts to boost his partnerships with traditional allies Moscow and Beijing as he tries to break out of diplomatic isolation.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said Kim boarded his personal train bound for Russia on Sunday afternoon, accompanied by members of the ruling party, government and military.

His final destination is uncertain. Many had assumed Kim and Putin would meet in Vladisvostok, a Russian city close to the border where the two leaders had their last meeting in 2019, and which Putin is visiting this week for an economic forum.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed only that Kim has entered Russia, and state news agency RIA-Novosti later reported his train had headed north after crossing the Razdolnaya River, taking it away from Vladivostok. The South Korean news agency Yonhap later published a photo that it said showed the train in Ussuriysk, a city about 60 kilometers north of Vladivostok that has a sizeable ethnic Korean population.

Some Russian news media speculate that he is headed for the Vostochny spaceport, which Putin is to visit soon. Putin declined during the forum to say what he intended to do there. The launching facility is about 900 kilometers (550 miles) northwest of Ussuriysk, but the route there is circuitous and it is unclear how long Kim’s slow-moving train would take to get there.

A green train with yellow trimmings, resembling one used by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on his previous travels, is seen steaming by a slogan which reads “Towards a new victory” on the North Korea border with Russia and China seen from China’s Yiyanwang Three Kingdoms viewing platform in Fangchuan in northeastern China’s Jilin province on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

Peskov said Putin and Kim will meet after the Vladivostok forum, and that the meeting would include a lunch in Kim’s honor.

Officials identified in North Korean state media photos may hint at what Kim might seek from Putin and what he would be willing to give.

Kim is apparently accompanied by Jo Chun Ryong, a ruling party official in charge of munitions policies who joined the leader on recent tours of factories producing artillery shells and missiles, said South Korea’s Unification Ministry. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will be part of the Russian delegation, according to Peskov.

North Korea may have tens of millions of artillery shells and rockets based on Soviet designs that could give a huge boost to the Russian army in Ukraine, analysts say.

Kim Jong Un’s trip to Russia for a possible meeting with President Vladimir Putin has drawn attention to the traditional method of travel for North Korean leaders: luxury, armored trains that have long been a part of the dynasty’s lore and are symbols of its deep isolation. (September 11)

Also identified in photos were Pak Thae Song, chairman of North Korea’s space science and technology committee, and Navy Adm. Kim Myong Sik, who are linked with North Korean efforts to acquire spy satellites and nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines. Experts say North Korea would struggle to acquire such capabilities without external help, although it’s not clear if Russia would share such sensitive technologies.

Kim Jong Un may also seek badly needed energy and food supplies, analysts say. Deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko said Russia may discuss humanitarian aid with the North Korean delegation, according to Russian news agencies.

Kim’s delegation also likely includes his foreign minister, Choe Sun Hui, and his top two military officials, Korean People’s Army Marshals Ri Pyong Chol and Pak Jong Chon.

Data from FlightRadar24.com, which tracks flights worldwide, showed an Air Koryo Antonov An-148 took off from Pyongyang on Tuesday and flew for about an hour to reach Vladivostok. North Korea’s national airline has only just resumed flying internationally after being grounded during the COVID-19 pandemic. There had been speculation that North Korea could use a plane to fly in support staff.

Kim is making his first foreign trip since the pandemic, during which North Korea imposed tight border controls for more than three years.

Lim Soo-suk, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said Seoul was maintaining communication with Moscow while closely monitoring Kim’s visit.

“No U.N. member state should violate Security Council sanctions against North Korea by engaging in an illegal trade of arms, and must certainly not engage in military cooperation with North Korea that undermines the peace and stability of the international community,” Lim said during a briefing.

U.S. officials released intelligence last week that North Korea and Russia were arranging a meeting between their leaders.

According to U.S. officials, Putin could focus on securing more supplies of North Korean artillery and other ammunition to refill declining reserves as he seeks to rebuff a Ukrainian counteroffensive and show that he’s capable of grinding out a long war of attrition. That could potentially put more pressure on the U.S. and its partners to pursue negotiations as concerns over a protracted conflict grow despite their huge shipments of advanced weaponry to Ukraine in the past 17 months.

“Arms discussions between Russia and the DPRK are expected to continue during Kim Jong Un’s trip to Russia,” said White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson, using the abbreviation for North Korea’s official name of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “We urge the DPRK to abide by the public commitments that Pyongyang has made to not provide or sell arms to Russia.”

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington will monitor the meeting closely, reminding both countries that “any transfer of arms from North Korea to Russia would be a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions,” and that the U.S. “will not hesitate to impose new sanctions.”

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters that Tokyo will be watching the outcome of the Kim-Putin meeting with concern, including the “impact it could have on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

The United States has accused North Korea of providing Russia with arms, including selling artillery shells to the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Both Russian and North Korean officials denied such claims.

But speculation about the countries’ military cooperation grew after Shoigu, the defense minister, made a rare visit to North Korea in July, when Kim invited him to an arms exhibition and a massive military parade in the capital where he showcased ICBMs designed to target the U.S. mainland.

Following that visit, Kim toured North Korea’s weapons factories, including a facility producing artillery systems where he urged workers to speed up the development and large-scale production of new kinds of ammunition. Experts say Kim’s visits to the factories likely had a dual goal of encouraging the modernization of North Korean weaponry and examining artillery and other supplies that could be exported to Russia.

___

Associated Press journalists Jim Heintz in Tallinn, Estonia; Aamer Madhani and Matthew Lee in Washington; Dake Kang and Ng Han Guan in Fangchuan, China; Haruka Nuga in Tokyo; Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates; and Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.

___

Follow AP’s coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

AP · September 12, 2023

5. The Power of Solid Alliances for Good

Excerpts:

Most importantly for the U.S., there is a need for continued U.S. global leadership. A pressing need to better disseminate information about our values – life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness in a liberal democracy tethered to the rule of law. We should reconstitute the U.S. Information Service, abolished in 1999, with offices and dedicated personnel in all our embassies, focused on this important mission.

If left to the people, autocracies will be replaced by democracies dedicated to the rule of law. Our job should be to communicate with the people.

The Power of Solid Alliances for Good

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/opinion/the-power-of-solid-alliances-for-good?mc_cid=b8984c5f51

SEPTEMBER 11TH, 2023 BY JOSEPH DETRANI | 0 COMMENTS

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani is former Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO), as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He also served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence. He currently serves on the Board of Managers at Sandia National Laboratories. The views expressed represent those of the author.

View all articles by Joseph DeTrani

OPINION — The Camp David Summit of the U.S., South Korea and Japan was emblematic of an alliance that, despite historical issues, showed that democracies with the rule of law, responsive to the people, can and will unite to deter and if necessary, defeat a threatening adversary.

Much has been said about the alliance of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea and their effort to appeal to the Global South and others, espousing a line that these autocracies represent a form of governance that others should emulate. It’s hard to understand why any of these countries, based on their behavior, would be a model for others to emulate.

Russia discarded the security assurances they provided to Ukraine in 1994 with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, pledging to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders or to use or threaten the use of force. Russia blatantly violated these security assurances in 2014 with its invasion and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Russia then doubled down with its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with the ongoing carnage in this unprovoked war. Is this the model for others to emulate?

North Korea, unable to feed its own people, with a record of extreme human rights abuses, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its nuclear and missile programs, determined to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state. A desperate and isolated Vladimir Putin has reportedly reached out to Kim Jung Un for military assistance: artillery shells, rockets, and other weaponry, in exchange for food and energy assistance and possibly assistance with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs – all in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Recent media reporting of a planned visit of Kim Jung Un to Russia to meet with Putin, most likely in Vladivostok, appears to be imminent. The former Soviet Union had provided North Korea with a research reactor in 1963 and in 1985 got North Korea to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) – that North Korea quit in January 2003 – while also helping with North Korea’s ballistic missile programs. This ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when North Korea then looked to China for greater economic assistance and geopolitical support. Russia was an active member of the Six-Party Talks, hosted by China, from 2003-2009, committed to securing the complete and verifiable dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons facilities.

Cipher Brief Subscriber+Members enjoy unlimited access to Cipher Brief content, including analysis with experts, private virtual briefings with experts, the M-F Open Source Report and the weekly Dead Drop – an insider look at the latest gossip in the national security space. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member. Upgrade your access today.

The irony is that Russia now needs North Korea’s military support to persist with their invasion of Ukraine. And North Korea, desperate for attention and economic and military assistance, not only openly supports Russia’s invasion of a sovereign nation but is willing to provide military support to Russia.

Are these the countries others want to emulate?

Six months after the death of Mahsa Amini, protests in Iran continue. The demonstrations are indicative of the resentment the people have toward the ruling theocracy, an elite group apparently oblivious to severe economic conditions affecting the people, with high inflation and unemployment, living under an oppressive regime. A regime that supports proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Qods Force providing weapons, training and financial support to militias and political organizations in these – and other – countries, challenging legitimate governments.

Is this the country others want to emulate?

Since the normalization of relations with China in January 1979, the U.S. has been China’s major trading partner, with over $600 billion annually in trade, and significant U.S. foreign direct investment throughout China, with over 300,000 Chinese students annually attending our universities and colleges. Indeed, this was Deng Xiaoping’s strategy when he took over in 1978: Ensuring a close economic and strategic relationship with the U.S.

Since Xi Jinping took over in 2013, there has been considerable tension in relations with the U.S. and others, to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region and Taiwan Strait, with concern about the treatment of the Uighurs in Xinjiang Province and the 2020 National Security Law for Hong Kong that nullified the Basic Law that allowed for fifty years of a “one country two systems” form of governance for Hong Kong, established in July 1997 when Hong Kong reverted back to China after 150 years of British Rule.

There is an opportunity for China to cooperate with the U.S. on a multitude of issues for the common good, like North Korea, climate change, pandemics, counter-narcotics and counter-international organized crime and other issues.

Most importantly for the U.S., there is a need for continued U.S. global leadership. A pressing need to better disseminate information about our values – life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness in a liberal democracy tethered to the rule of law. We should reconstitute the U.S. Information Service, abolished in 1999, with offices and dedicated personnel in all our embassies, focused on this important mission.

If left to the people, autocracies will be replaced by democracies dedicated to the rule of law. Our job should be to communicate with the people.

This piece by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe Detrani was first published in The Washington Times

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

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6. Kim Jong Un Travels to Russia, His Bulletproof Train Spotted Ahead of Putin Meeting

Excerpt:

Kim’s travels are often shrouded in mystery. His first two trips to China weren’t confirmed until they were over. It didn’t become known that Kim had chosen rail travel to the 2019 Vietnam summit with the U.S. until his train was spotted crossing the Yalu River at the Chinese border.

Kim Jong Un Travels to Russia, His Bulletproof Train Spotted Ahead of Putin Meeting

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/kim-jong-un-travels-to-russia-his-bulletproof-train-spotted-ahead-of-putin-meeting-8522ce44?page=1

North Korean leader is making his first trip abroad in more than four years, aboard a luxury carriage preferred by his family

By Timothy W. Martin

Follow and Dasl Yoon

Updated Sept. 12, 2023 6:04 am ET

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia early Tuesday ahead of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two are expected to discuss a sale of Pyongyang’s weapons to Moscow. Photo: KCNA

SEOUL—As North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to Russia, he did so in the preferred manner of Pyongyang’s ruling family: cloaked in secrecy, self-protection and style.

Kim, the third-generation dictator, plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, state media from both countries said on Monday—the first official confirmation of the summit between the two leaders. The reports didn’t specify when or where specifically the exchange will take place. Kim “will meet and have a talk with Comrade Putin,” North Korea’s state media said.

The trip will mark Kim’s first international trip in more than four years. Kim departed Pyongyang on Sunday afternoon local time and took his personal, bulletproof train, North Korea’s state media reported on Tuesday. Photos showed Kim, who was accompanied by senior party, government and military officials, waving to North Koreans from the train door.

Kim’s train crossed into Russia on early Tuesday, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said. Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang has confirmed Kim’s final destination.

By Tuesday afternoon, the North Korean leader’s train was spotted heading northward after passing through the Ussuriysk railway station, more than 150 miles from the two countries’ border, according to South Korea’s semi-official Yonhap News Agency, citing Russian media reports and local sources.

U.S. officials had said they expected Kim to soon meet with Putin, where the two could advance talks about a sale of Pyongyang’s munitions to help Moscow replenish its supplies for its war in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could advance a sale of North Korean munitions to help Moscow replenish its supplies for its war in Ukraine, U.S. officials say. PHOTO: ALEXEI DANICHEV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN//SHUTTERSTOCK

Putin on Monday and Tuesday is scheduled to travel to Vladivostok, about 750 miles from Pyongyang, and take part in the Eastern Economic Forum, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in a report carried by Russia’s state-run TASS news agency. Kim and Putin met in Vladivostok in 2019, their only in-person exchange to date. Peskov told a Russian media outlet on Monday that there were no plans for talks between Putin and Kim at the economic forum, which ends Wednesday.

Vladivostok, on Russia’s east coast, is close enough for Kim to reach by train in a day. Traveling by rail vs. air not only gives the North Korean dictator increased security but also some global spotlight, with his trip itself drawing international attention, said Kim Young-soo, head of the North Korea Research Institute in Seoul.

“The train ride allows Kim to appear as a mysterious but important figure who meets world leaders in locations that are convenient for him,” he said.

Kim is using his go-to mode of transport for foreign trips, an armed fortress on wheels that is believed to contain a karaoke room, satellite communication and an emergency-medical facility. His personal car—in the past a Mercedes-Benz limousine—is towed along as part of the caravan. So, too, is a helicopter brought along just in case Kim needs a swift exit, according to South Korean media reports based on declassified information and former North Korean officials.

The train is painted olive green with white roofing, and the windows are darkened. Strips of yellow steel plating—meant to fortify against bomb attacks—wrap around the train’s body. Kim is known to travel with more than 20 carriages, with security traveling in front and in back.

An olive green train thought to be carrying North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled on his country’s border with Russia on Monday. PHOTO: NG HAN GUAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

A Pyongyang-Vladivostok flight, clocking in around an hour, is one of the few routes offered by North Korea’s state-run Air Koryo airline. But in April 2019, Kim opted for a roughly 20-hour journey by train.

Kim used a chartered

Air China plane when he traveled to Singapore in 2018 to meet with former President Donald Trump. North Korea’s own fleet of planes aren’t considered reliable enough for longer distances. But Kim did take his personal jet for a pair of visits to China the same year. North Korea’s railways—its main form of transport above cars, buses or planes—are plagued by electricity shortages and outdated tracks. The fastest North Korea train, from Pyongyang to Beijing, travels at about 28 miles an hour, while ordinary trains travel at just 9 miles an hour due to infrastructure issues, said Ahn Byung-min, a South Korean researcher who traveled to North Korea several times for railway research. By comparison, South Korea’s conventional trains travel at about 90 miles an hour while its high-speed railway trains can reach up to 186 miles an hour.

“The railway tracks are barely able to withstand Kim’s heavy bulletproof train and we haven’t seen any signs of improvements in recent years for safety and speed,” said Ahn, who last inspected North Korea’s railways in 2018.

Kim Il Sung, North Korea’s founder and the current leader’s grandfather, took occasional flights with planes lent by China, though he often traveled abroad by train. Kim Jong Il, the current leader’s father, had a purported fear of flying and preferred rail travel for the roughly dozen foreign trips made during his 17 years in power. He died from a heart attack aboard his personal train in 2011 while traveling to a North Korean city for an on-site inspection. A mock-up of the train sits inside the mausoleum containing the two deceased North Korean leaders.

The North Korea border with Russia and China on Monday. PHOTO: NG HAN GUAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Police and military personnel on Monday were on a train platform of Vladivostok, where the Russian and North Korean leaders met in 2019. PHOTO: YONHAP NEWS/ZUMA PRESS

Russia and North Korea have vowed tighter military coordination, an element of which could include tech transfers that could bolster Pyongyang’s weapons arsenal. The Kim regime will face repercussions from the U.S. and others should it provide Russia with lethal aid, said John Kirby, a spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council. Pyongyang hasn’t provided major munitions to Moscow, though months ago supplied some rockets and artillery ammunition to the Wagner Group, Russia’s paramilitary force, he added.

North Korea has reopened to the outside world in recent weeks, after hunkering down for years over Covid-19 fears. Flights between Pyongyang, Beijing and Vladivostok have resumed. North Korea sent athletes to international competitions and allowed the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang to replenish staff. A visiting Chinese delegation left Pyongyang on Sunday, after attending celebrations tied to the 75-year anniversary of North Korea’s founding.

But a foreign trip made by the North Korean leader would be the clearest indication yet that the cloistered regime has returned to prepandemic behavior. In recent years, Kim centralized power and tightened his grip across the information-repressed society.

Before the pandemic, Kim took overseas trips to China, Russia, Vietnam and Singapore—including two summits with Trump. The two met a third time in June 2019 at the Korean Demilitarized Zone, where Kim sat down with the U.S. leader on the South Korean side of the heavily fortified border.

Kim’s travels are often shrouded in mystery. His first two trips to China weren’t confirmed until they were over. It didn’t become known that Kim had chosen rail travel to the 2019 Vietnam summit with the U.S. until his train was spotted crossing the Yalu River at the Chinese border.

Matthew Luxmoore and Alastair Gale contributed to this article.

Write to Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com and Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com

Appeared in the September 12, 2023, print edition as 'Kim Rolls Toward Russia to Meet Putin'.

7. Can North Korea’s ammunition offer Russia support in Ukraine war?

Hopefully the intelligence community can provide assessments on the effectiveness of north Korea arms and ammunition. My gut says that there could be a fairly significant number of failures. And if so then we need to use that information to underline the legacy of the regime and the nKPA.

Can North Korea’s ammunition offer Russia support in Ukraine war?

Reuters · by Josh Smith

SEOUL, Sept 12 (Reuters) - If North Korea provides artillery rounds and other weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, it could help Kremlin forces stretch their dwindling stocks of ammunition but would be unlikely to change the course of the conflict, military analysts say.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia on Tuesday for meetings with President Vladimir Putin, where U.S. officials say they expect both sides to pursue an arms deal.

North Korea is believed to have a large stockpile of artillery shells and rockets that would be compatible with Soviet-era weapons, as well as a history of producing such ammunition.

The size of these stores and its degradation over time is less clear, as is the scale of ongoing production, but these stockpiles could help replenish those severely depleted in Ukraine, said Joseph Dempsey, a defence researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“While access to such stocks may prolong the conflict, it is unlikely going to change the outcome,” he added.

Both Ukraine and Russia have expended massive numbers of shells, and have looked to allies and partners around the world to refill their ammunition stockpiles.

Russia fired 10-11 million rounds last year in Ukraine, a Western official estimated on Friday.

Among the ammunition that the U.S. has provided Ukraine are shells with advanced capabilities, such as the Excalibur, which uses GPS guidance and steering fins to hit targets as small as 3 metres (10 feet) from up to 40km (25 miles) away.

North Korea's offering is likely to be less high-tech but accessing those stocks would likely significantly increase Russia's capabilities in the short term, while North Korean production lines would help in the longer term, said Siemon Wezeman, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

"Almost none of the ammunition is in any way 'advanced' - it would feed the traditional Russian barrage type use of artillery but not provide Russia with any precision ammunition," he said.

To have minimal stocks for all their artillery in 100mm-152mm calibre would mean North Korea would have at least millions of shells stockpiled, Wezeman said, and just to replenish any ammunition fired in exercises or demonstrations will need some serious production capacities.

The White House has said Russia wants to buy "literally millions" of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea.

QUANTITY OVER QUALITY

Massed artillery fire has played a key role since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a "special military operation. Some analysts call artillery the "king of battle" despite the focus on flashier, high-tech weapons.

"Used correctly, artillery can shatter the will and cohesion of the enemy, offering significant opportunity to seize both ground and the initiative," Patrick Hinton, a British Army fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said in a recent report.

However, it is more complicated than simply throwing shells at the enemy, and Russian artillery barrages have repeatedly failed to dislodge entrenched Ukrainians, he wrote.

Hinton told Reuters the question of quality in North Korean artillery shells could have an impact if flaws fall outside accepted tolerances.

"Poorly made ammunition will have inconsistent performance - behaviours in flight may be affected which will reduce accuracy; poor quality fuses may lead to premature function; shelf life may be reduced if the content is poorly made," he said. "These all need to be made to a high specification otherwise they may not land where they are expected to which can have catastrophic consequences."

The performance of North Korea's artillery and crews has been suspect since the North Korean army fired around 170 shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in 2010, killing four people.

According to a report by the Washington-based 38 North project, more than half those rounds fell in the waters around the island, while about 20% of those that impacted the island failed to explode.

Such a high failure rate suggested some North Korea-manufactured artillery munitions suffered from either poor quality control during manufacture or poor storage conditions and standards, the report said.

With very large numbers of ammunition, the lack of precision and the occasional dud shells or rockets wouldn't matter much to the Russians, Wezeman said.

"However, it would matter if Korean ammunition is of such poor quality that it is just unsafe to use for Russian soldiers - there have been indications that such quality issues play with Korean ammunition," he added.

Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Lincoln Feast.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Reuters · by Josh Smith

8. A timeline of the complicated relations between Russia and North Korea

Note that it is in the Kim family regime's DBNA to play Russia and China off against each other. And there is no blind loyalty to either one even though both have thema means to keep north Korea afloat.

A timeline of the complicated relations between Russia and North Korea

The Washington Post · by Kim Tong-Hyung | AP · September 12, 2023

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has arrived in Russia to see President Vladimir Putin. It will be the two isolated leaders’ second meeting. Their governments have not confirmed an agenda, but U.S. officials say Putin may ask for artillery and other ammunition for his war in Ukraine.

Such a request would mark a reversal of roles from the 1950-53 Korean War, when the Soviet Union provided ammunition, warplanes and pilots to support communist North Korea’s invasion of the South, and the decades of Soviet sponsorship of the North that followed.

Despite their often aligning interests, relations between Russia and North Korea have experienced highs and lows. A timeline of some key events:

1945-1948 — Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula ends with Tokyo’s World War II defeat in 1945 but the peninsula is eventually divided into a Soviet-backed north and a U.S.-backed south. The Soviet military installs future dictator Kim Il Sung, a former guerrilla leader who fought Japanese forces in Manchuria, into power in the North.

1950-1953 — Kim Il Sung’s forces execute a surprise attack on the South in June 1950, triggering the Korean War. The conflict brought in forces from the newly created People’s Republic of China, aided by the Soviet air force. Troops from South Korea, the United States and other countries under the direction of the United Nations battle to repulse the invasion. A 1953 armistice stops the fighting and leaves the Korean Peninsula in a technical state of war.

Mid-1950s though 1960s — The Soviet Union continues to provide economic and military assistance to North Korea, but their relations decline as Kim Il Sung violently purges pro-Soviet and pro-Chinese factions within the North’s leadership to consolidate his power. Moscow reduces its aid but does not cut it off until the end of the Cold War.

1970s — As a rivalry between the Soviet Union and China intensifies, North Korea pursues an “equidistance” policy that allows it to play the mutually hostile communist giants against each other to extract more aid from both. Pyongyang also attempts to reduce its dependency on Moscow and Beijing, but a series of policy failures following heavy borrowing from international financial markets push the North Korean economy into decades of disarray.

1980s — Following Mikhail Gorbachev’s rise to power, the Soviet Union begins to reduce aid to North Korea and to favor reconciliation with South Korea. Seoul also expands diplomatic relations with communist countries in Eastern Europe, leaving Pyongyang increasingly isolated.

1990s — The 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union deprives North Korea of its main economic and security benefactor. The post-communist government in Moscow led by President Boris Yeltsin shows no enthusiasm for supporting North Korea with continued aid and subsidized trade. Moscow establishes formal diplomatic ties with Seoul in hopes of drawing South Korean investment and allows its Soviet-era military alliance with North Korea to expire. Kim Il Sung dies in 1994, and North Korea experiences a devastating famine later in the 1990s. The number of people to die in the mass starvation is estimated in the hundreds of thousands.

Early 2000s — After his first election as president in 2000, Vladimir Putin actively seeks to restore Russia’s ties with North Korea. Putin visits Pyongyang in July of that year to meet with Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean leader. The two issue joint criticism of U.S. missile defense plans. The trip is seen as Russia’s statement that it would work to restore its traditional domains of influence as the divergence between Moscow and the West over key security issues grows. Putin hosts Kim Jong Il for subsequent meetings in Russia in 2001 and 2002.

Mid-to-late 2000s — Despite warmer relations, Russia twice supports U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea over what was then a nascent nuclear weapons and missile program. Russia participates in talks aimed at persuading the North to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for security and economic benefits. The talks, which also involved the United States, China, South Korea and Japan, collapse in December 2008.

2011-2012 — Months after a summit with then-Russian President Dimitry Medvedev in August 2011, Kim Jong Il dies. His son, Kim Jong Un, succeeds him as North Korea’s ruler. In 2012, Russia agrees to write off 90% of North Korea’s estimated $11 billion debt.

2016-2017 — Kim Jong Un accelerates the North’s nuclear and missile tests. Russia supports stringent Security Council sanctions that include limiting oil supplies and cracking down on the country’s labor exports.

2018-2019 — Kim Jong Un initiates diplomacy with Washington and Seoul to leverage his nuclear program for economic benefits. He also tries to improve ties with traditional allies China and Russia to boost his bargaining power. After his second meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump break down over U.S.-led sanctions on the North, Kim Jong Un travels to the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok for his first summit with Putin in April 2019. The leaders vow to expand cooperation, but the meeting doesn’t produce substantial results.

2022 — While using the distraction caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine to further ramp up its weapons tests, North Korea blames the United States for the conflict. Pyongyang claims the West’s “hegemonic policy” gave Putin justification to defend Russia by sending troops into the neighboring country. North Korea joins Russia and Syria in recognizing the independence of two Moscow-backed separatist regions of eastern Ukraine and hints at an interest in sending construction workers to those areas to help with rebuilding efforts. Russia and China block U.S.-led efforts at the Security Council to strengthen sanctions on North Korea over its intensifying missile tests.

Sept, 12, 2023 — Kim Jong Un arrives in Russia to meet with Putin. He is expected to seek Russian economic aid and military technology in exchange for munitions to fuel Russia’s war in Ukraine. The meeting follows Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu making a rare visit to North Korea in July and attending a massive military parade where Kim showcased long-range missiles designed to target the U.S. mainland.

___

Associated Press journalist Jim Heintz in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed to this report.

___

Follow AP’s coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

The Washington Post · by Kim Tong-Hyung | AP · September 12, 2023

9. Kim-Putin’s Vladivostok bromance may risk global security, from Europe to Asia

As Blue Oyster Cult saud, "don't fear the reaper." This unholy alliance, axis of authoritarians, or threesome of convenience (with China) is a sign of weakness not strength. We need to recognize their strategies, understand them, EXPOSE them, and attack their strategies with a superior political warfare strategy.

And Kim will likely screw it up as he plays China and Russia against each other.

Kim-Putin’s Vladivostok bromance may risk global security, from Europe to Asia

The potential summit puts the two’s longtime ally, Beijing, in a precarious position.

By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA

2023.09.11

rfa.org

Four years ago, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made a symbolic journey southwards, crossing the border with his armored train to engage with the leaders of the democratic world. A similar image is in the making, only this time, his train will head in the opposite direction – towards a deepening bromance with his fellow leader of the authoritarian world, Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Kim is expected to visit the Russian Far East in the coming days, Russian news agency Interfax said on Monday, citing multiple unnamed sources. “A source in the government of a constituent territory in Russia's Far Eastern Federal District said that the North Korean leader ‘might visit the region shortly’,” it reported, adding that a government official of another region also confirmed preparations for Kim’s visit.

A person familiar with the matter told Radio Free Asia that Kim Jong Un had already departed the North Korean capital.

The report lends weight to multiple signs that have indicated an impending summit between North Korea and Russia in Vladivostok. The increased bilateral diplomatic exchanges – the most recent being the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Pyongyang in July – served to signal that preparations for a major visit are underway. Japanese media including ANN reported on Russia preparing for what appears to be a welcome ceremony at its border station of Khasan, where a red carpet will be rolled out.

While such signs are not conclusive of a summit taking place, the high-level meeting is very plausible, according to multiple South Korean diplomatic sources who told Radio Free Asia that Seoul is closely monitoring the possibility of Kim traveling to Russia during the period of the Eastern Economic Forum, held from Sunday to Wednesday in Vladivostok. The Russian state-owned news agency Tass reported on Monday that Putin is on a two-day trip to the far east to attend the forum.

In April 2019, Kim and Putin also met in Vladivostok, where the two reinforced their solid diplomatic ties. The meeting came a mere two months after Kim’s high-stakes nuclear negotiation with the United States collapsed in Hanoi. After the summit, where Putin reiterated Russia’s role as a regime backer, Kim returned to his brinkmanship diplomacy, firing multiple missiles.

This week’s potential summit between the two authoritarian leaders is likely to be fully loaded with ammunition that could exacerbate the precarious geopolitical dynamics and inflict further consequences to global and regional security, not only posing new threats to the U.S. and its allies’ spectrum of policies from Europe to Asia, but also affecting Pyongyang’s relations with its other backer, China.

Ukraine War and Europe

The Kim-Putin summit could change security-related dynamics in Europe, as arms trade is likely to dominate the agenda.

“As we have warned publicly, arms negotiations between Russia and the DPRK are actively advancing,” U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said last week, referring to North Korea by its formal name. “We have information that Kim Jong Un expects these discussions to continue, to include leader-level diplomatic engagement in Russia,” she added.

Any ammunition supplies to Russia would prolong its aggression against Ukraine and drag the war into a long-term conflict that further destabilizes Europe. Strained ammunition supplies are currently holding Russia back to advance deeper into Ukrainian territories.

"I think the potential talks, should it take place, would be aimed primarily at enhancing the bilateral military cooperation,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul who had advised the South Korean government over the years.

“Especially from Russia’s point of view, it desperately needs conventional weapons from North Korea, in the form of artillery shells, drones and missiles, as it continues its war with Ukraine.”

Wang Son-taek, director of the Global Policy Center at the Han Pyeong Peace Institute, agreed. It “wouldn’t be a bad idea” from Russia’s perspective to cooperate with North Korea as leverage to break the U.S.-led order and create a “neo-Cold War-like” confrontational security climate, Wang said.

Denuclearization of North Korea

The summit would also set the U.S. back in its denuclearization efforts in the Korean peninsula. North Korea’s acquisition of hi-tech Russian weapons would inevitably boost the country’s deterrence capability against the U.S. and its regional allies. Some of those technologies may include satellite launch technology, advanced inter continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and nuclear-powered submarines.

“It is possible that North Korea could demand a gradual and phased transfer of technology from Russia,” Yang said. “The North could first request technology transfer for its spy satellite, as it has already announced that it will launch one in October. Then, it could ask for ICBM re-entry technology, followed by nuclear-powered submarine technology, and so on.”

A view of a multiple rocket launcher during an exercise in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency in Pyongyang July 15, 2014. Credit: Reuters/KCNA

Any economic support from Russia may also undermine and water down the effects of the international community’s imposed sanctions to force North Korea to denuclearize. On the other hand, a bolstered alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang would reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, pulling it further away from the pressure to disarm and non-proliferation.

Still, Pyongyang’s indignance to international condemnation comes at the expense of a crippling domestic economy. Almost half of the North Korean people were undernourished between 2020 and 2022, a World Food Program report published in July found. The food shortage in North Korea appears to be spreading, with sources inside the country telling Radio Free Asia that as many as 30% of farmers in two northern provinces are unable to work on collective farms because they’re weak from hunger.

"In the case of North Korea and Russia, they are already under economic sanctions under the U.S.-led world order,” Wang said. “And they may have believed that it may prove difficult for them to remain in compliance with the current order.”

China on the fence

Would the burgeoning Kim-Putin bromance create an opportunity for the U.S. to thaw the ice with China? While it is unlikely for China, which wants to elevate its bargaining power against the U.S. and degrade Washington’s global leadership over time, to prematurely collide directly with the U.S. at this stage, Beijing could be compelled to reassess its relations with its authoritarian neighbors, as well as with Washington.

Equally, Washington may use the summit as a means to strengthen cooperation among allies, Wang pointed out. “It could strengthen liberal-democratic alliances and provide an opportunity for the U.S. to align with the democracies, which would put pressure on China to conform more to the rule-based-order.”

For Beijing, the two authoritarian regimes are valued as a strategic asset against the U.S., but cuddling too close with them may jeopardize its relations with the U.S. and its regional allies, which are crucial to improving its economic situation. It needs to maintain access to international markets and foreign investment in order to prevent a further deterioration of its economy.

“China’s position is to continue its cooperation with North Korea and Russia, but not to confront the U.S. head-on,” Wang said. “In fact, there are fundamental constraints when it comes to North Korea-Russia relations, which arguably question its sustainability. Historically, North Korea has harbored resentment towards Russian imperialism, while Russia perceives North Korea as a demanding friend, often making challenging requests.

“A long-lasting friendship between them might seem elusive. This dynamic may explain China’s fence-sitting, as it appears Beijing is carefully assessing the situation, by neither actively participating nor intervening, gauging the sustainability of these relationships.”

Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.

rfa.org

10. Kim Jong Un arrives in Russia to meet Putin amid economy, security concerns

Kim Jong Un arrives in Russia to meet Putin amid economy, security concerns

The two leaders are set to have ‘negotiations,’ says the Kremlin spokesman.

By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA

2023.09.11

Seoul, South Korea

rfa.org

Updated Sept. 12, 2023, 03:35 a.m. ET

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia’s far east on Tuesday to meet his fellow leader of the authoritarian world, the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We believe that Kim Jong Un entered Russia on a private train, probably in the early hours of this morning,” said South Korea’s Defense Ministry spokesperson Jeon Ha-kyu Tuesday. “We’re watching closely to see if there are any negotiations going on between North Korea and Russia regarding arms deals, technology transfers, especially given that he was accompanied by a number of military personnel.”

The comments came just hours after North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday released photos of Kim, accompanied by senior officials from the ruling party and its military, boarding his train to Russia.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un departs Pyongyang, North Korea, to visit Russia, September 10, 2023, in this image released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on September 12, 2023. Credit: KCNA via Reuters

Kim is set to meet Putin during his trip to Russia, most likely in the far eastern city of Vladivostok. But a direct journey to Vladivostok on his armored train is not possible, as the North Korean train is not compatible with Russia’s railway. This necessitates a transit at the Khasan station en route to Vladivostok.

The North Korean leader’s travel route is largely kept secret, but he was most likely to have traveled across the Druzhny Bridge, also known as the Bridge of Friendship, between North Korea and Russia.

The leaders are set to have “negotiations” and attend an “official banquet”, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to Russia’s official news agency, Tass, Tuesday. “No press conferences are planned,” Peskov added.

“As you know, while implementing our relations with our neighbors, including North Korea, the interests of our two countries are important to us, and not warnings from Washington,” Peskov said, according to Tass. “It is the interests of our two countries that we will focus on.”

In response, Seoul on Tuesday urged Pyongyang and Moscow to align with the UN’s security council resolutions in upholding regional peace. “Russia and North Korea should be reminded of their obligations under UN Security Council resolutions and various international sanctions against arms trade and military cooperation,” Lim Soo-suk, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a regular briefing.

An official from South Korea’s presidential office pressed Moscow to play a constructive role. President Yoon Suk Yeol hopes that “Russia would play a responsible role as a permanent member of the Security Council,” the official told reporters, adding that both independently and in collaboration with its allies, Seoul was well-informed of the current development.

Kim’s arrival in the far east on early Tuesday came as Pyongyang and Moscow confirmed the North Korean leader’s visit to Russia late Monday. The North’s Korea Central News Agency said that the visit was made at “the invitation of the President of the Russian Federation, Comrade Vladimir Putin.” The Kremlin also confirmed the visit, according to Tass on Monday.

This picture taken on April 25, 2019 shows Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attending a reception following their talks at the Far Eastern Federal University campus on Russky island in the far-eastern Russian port of Vladivostok. Credit: STR/KCNA VIA KNS/AFP

Kim and Putin’s last summit in April 2019 also took place in Vladivostok, where the two reinforced their diplomatic ties. The meeting came a mere two months after Kim’s high-stakes nuclear negotiation with the United States collapsed in Hanoi. After the summit, where Putin reiterated Russia’s role as a regime backer, Kim returned to his brinkmanship diplomacy, firing multiple missiles.

The summit could change the dynamics of global security, as arms trade is likely to dominate the agenda. Any ammunition supplies to Russia would prolong its aggression against Ukraine and drag the war into a long-term conflict that further destabilizes Europe. Strained ammunition supplies are currently holding Russia back to advance deeper into Ukrainian territories.

The talks, inevitably, would primarily be centered around bilateral military cooperation, said Cheon Seong-whun, a former security strategy secretary for South Korea’s presidential office.

“Russia is in urgent need of conventional weapons, including artillery shells, and North Korea may ask for an S-400 missile defense system to compensate for its weak air defense.”

The S-400 missile defense system, deployed in Russia, is designed to shoot down air-threats including enemy’s aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles. Incorporating the Russian defense system could significantly boost the North’s relatively weak air defense, and therefore undermine the allies’ deterrence capability.

“Other demands could include the transfer of technology for spy satellites, intercontinental ballistic missile reentry, nuclear-powered submarines, hypersonic missiles, and nuclear warhead miniaturization,” Cheon said. “The bottom line is that North Korea’s attempts to diversify tactical nuclear forces will continue.”

Kim is expected to visit Vladivostok, where he would meet Putin. North Korea is seeking diplomatic and economic support to revive its coronavirus and sanctions-hit economy. Almost half of the North Korean people were undernourished between 2020 and 2022, a World Food Program report published in July found. The food shortage in North Korea appears to be spreading, with sources inside the country telling Radio Free Asia that as many as 30% of farmers in two northern provinces are unable to work on collective farms because they’re weak from hunger.

Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.

Updated to add quotes from S. Korean foreign ministry and analyst.

rfa.org

11. Kim's entourage suggests military focus for Putin summit

Food will be an afterthought if it is considered all.

Tuesday

September 12, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Published: 12 Sep. 2023, 17:19

Updated: 12 Sep. 2023, 18:00

Kim's entourage suggests military focus for Putin summit

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-09-12/national/northKorea/Kims-entourage-suggests-military-focus-for-Putin-summit/1867584

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un waves before departing on his armored train to head to Russia Sunday for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as seen in a photo released by the state-run Rodong Sinmun on Tuesday. [YONHAP]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrived in Russia on his armored train early Tuesday, according to South Korea's Defense Ministry, and is expected to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon in what could be a symbolic occasion to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries.

Jeon Ha-kyou, a Defense Ministry spokesman, said in a briefing in Seoul that South Korean military intelligence believes that Kim's train had crossed into Russia early Tuesday and is closely monitoring the situation to see if any arms deals are made between Pyongyang and Moscow amid the war in Ukraine.

"The Ministry of National Defense believes that Kim Jong-un entered Russia via a private train early this morning," Jeon told reporters. "In particular, considering that many military personnel are accompanying him, we are closely monitoring whether negotiations related to arms trade and technology transfers between North Korea and Russia will proceed."

He noted that since the Eastern Economic Forum is being held in Vladivostok, the military assesses that "there may be a [meeting] schedule related to it" and is "keeping a close eye on the remaining issues."

The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) confirmed Tuesday morning that Kim had left Pyongyang for Russia aboard his armored train Sunday afternoon, accompanied by leading officials of his ruling Workers' Party and armed forces.

He was sent off by senior officials, including Kim Tok-hun, a member of the Presidium of the political bureau of the party's Central Committee, who wished him "good health" and a "successful foreign visit," said the KCNA.

Pyongyang residents also saw leader Kim off, who was spotted in state media photos waving before boarding his green and yellow train at a station in Pyongyang.

The impending summit follows a New York Times report last week that Kim plans to travel to Vladivostok to meet Putin, and that the two leaders could discuss supplying weapons for Russia's war in Ukraine.

North Korea, known to have a large stockpile of artillery shells, could potentially provide ammunition to Russia, which has depleted its supply, in exchange for Moscow's technologies related to nuclear-powered submarines, missiles and satellites much desired by Pyongyang, according to defense analysts. Russia could also provide food and energy assistance much needed by the North.

President Yoon Suk Yeol in a Cabinet meeting Tuesday stressed that "all permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as United Nations member states, must respond responsibly to North Korea's violation of Security Council resolutions," repeating his message conveyed to world leaders at a series of Asean and G20 meetings in Indonesia and India last week.

China and Russia are two of the five veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council, often accused by the United States, another permanent member, and its allies of not doing enough to enforce sanctions to deter North Korea's nuclear and missile weapons programs.

"Many countries are watching with some concern the summit between North Korea, sanctioned by the United Nations, and Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council," a presidential official said Tuesday. "The president has expressed his hopes that Russia will act responsibly as a permanent member of the UN Security Council."

He added that the South Korean government is "completely aware of the situation and is fully prepared, both independently and in cooperation with our allies."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un greets senior officials in Pyongyang before boarding a train to head to Russia Sunday afternoon in a photo released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency Tuesday. [YONHAP]

Photos released by the KNCA indicated that Kim could be accompanied by top diplomatic and military officials including Foreign Minister Choe Sun-hui, who has often accompanied the young leader in his previous overseas trips, and Ri Pyong-chol and Pak Jong-chon, both Korean People's Army marshals and members of the powerful politburo presidium. Ri is known for having had a role in leading the regime's nuclear and missile development program.

Other officials that could be a part of his entourage include Pak Hun, a vice premier who oversees the North's construction sector, Pak Thae-song, a vice chairman of the Worker's Party and chairman of a space science and technology committee which oversees the North's spy satellite launches, and Jo Chun-ryong, director of the munitions industry department. O Su-yong, director of the party's economic affairs department, in charge of space and economy affairs, was also likely included.

The plethora of officials related to North Korea's arms, space and economic sectors included on the trip suggests the upcoming summit will focus on defense and economic cooperation, raising the possibility of sanctions evasion.

Russian media outlet "Vesti Primorye" reported Tuesday that Kim's train arrived at the Russian border city of Khasan on Tuesday, citing a railway source, and is on its way to Ussuriysk, a city in Primorsky Krai, or the Russian Far East.

Later, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported that Kim's train had crossed a bridge over the Razdolnaya river, bordering China and Russia's Primorsky Krai, and was headed northward.

The KCNA said late Monday that Kim will have talks with Putin during his visit to Russia, without confirming further details.

The Kremlin also confirmed Monday that Kim was set to arrive in Russia at the invitation of Putin in the coming days and that a meeting between the two countries leaders would take place "shortly."

Putin made a two-day visit to Vladivostok on Monday to attend the annual Eastern Economic Forum being held at Far Eastern Federal University and was due to speak at a plenary session scheduled for Tuesday, making Vladivostok a likely venue for the meeting with Kim.

However, the Kremlin said that the leaders are not expected to meet at the forum itself, opening the possibility that the summit could take place in another location, such as Khabarovsk, which has easy access to Russian military factories, or Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in the Russian Far East.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said that Putin and Kim will lead their delegations in talks and could also meet "one-on-one if necessary." Putin also plans to host an official dinner for Kim.

Peskov also said, according to Russian media, that the Security Council "is also becoming a topic of discussion," forecasting that UN sanctions could be a topic of discussion in the upcoming summit.

If necessary, Russia is "ready to discuss UN sanctions against North Korea," he said.

Kim Jong-un en route to Russia for summit with Vladimir Putin

Kim to meet with Putin in first overseas trip since 2019

Kim Jong-un looks to stoke patriotism ahead of Putin meeting

North will 'pay a price' for any arms supplies to Russia, U.S. says

No military deals with North, Yoon warns at Asean summit

The White House last week warned North Korea against providing any lethal weapons to Russia, saying it will "pay a price" in the international community if it does.

Yoon also called for an immediate halt to any "attempts at military cooperation with North Korea that undermines peace in the international community," seen to be directed at Russia, in a summit with Asean leaders last Wednesday.

In July, Yoon made a surprise visit to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky and promised to provide Ukraine with a comprehensive package of security, humanitarian and reconstruction assistance through the so-called "Ukraine Peace and Solidarity Initiative."

At the G20 summit in New Delhi Sunday, Yoon pledged an additional $300 million in short-term aid for Ukraine next year and another $2 billion in mid- to long-term support for its war recovery efforts.

Defense Ministry spokesman Jeon said Tuesday that there has been "no change in the government's position regarding support for Ukraine" regarding the provision of lethal weapons to the war-torn country. Korea has officially maintained the position it will not provide lethal aid to countries at war.

A green train with yellow trimmings, resembling one used by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on his previous travels, is spotted near the North Korea border with Russia and China seen from China's Yiyanwang Three Kingdoms viewing platform in Fangchuan in northeastern China's Jilin province on Monday. [AP/YONHAP]

Kim's last overseas trip was a visit to Vladivostok, in Russia's Far East, in April 2019, which was also for a summit with Putin. North Korea recently reopened its borders following a lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic since early 2020.

Kim's luxurious, slow-moving bulletproof train is known to be equipped with communication devices necessary to function as the leader's moving office. The train has often been a preferred mode of transportation for North Korean leaders, including the late Kim Jong-il, the current leader's father, who feared flying.

When Kim Jong-un met Putin in Vladivostok in April 2019, he traveled a distance of about 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) by train.

The train trip could take 20 hours or more.

Due to the poor condition of North Korea's rail tracks, the train is able to run at about 60 kilometers per hour (37.2 miles per hour). The rail spacing between North Korea and Russia is different, so the train's wheels may have to be changed midway.

Kim also traveled over 60 hours by train for his second summit with former U.S. President Donald Trump in February 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam.

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]

12. Don't sidestep human rights in North, UN rapporteur urges

I know I sound like a broker record: We must have a human rights upfront approach.

Tuesday

September 12, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Published: 12 Sep. 2023, 18:03

Don't sidestep human rights in North, UN rapporteur urges

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-09-12/national/northKorea/Dont-sidestep-human-rights-in-North-UN-rapporteur-urges/1867730

Elizabeth Salmon, the United Nations special rapporteur on North Korean human rights, speaks during her meeting with Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho at the Central Government Complex in Jongno District, central Seoul, on Monday. [YONHAP]

A visiting United Nations official on Tuesday called for the inclusion of human rights in future talks regarding North Korea, saying the issue should not be sidestepped in discussions about the regime's wide-ranging violations of international law.

Elizabeth Salmon, the UN’s special rapporteur on North Korean human rights, said that the international community “cannot work on peace and security” with the North “without discussing human rights” during an afternoon press conference held in Jung District, central Seoul.

Referring to past South Korean administrations’ attempts to tiptoe around the North’s human rights violations in previous peace talks, Salmon said, “I question whether this policy has been successful,” noting that the number of missile tests and military threats by Pyongyang had not decreased because Seoul and others refrained from pressing the issue.

She further urged that human rights considerations be “included in every talk and process when we discuss peace and security” with the North.

Salmon’s press conference wraps up her 9-day visit to South Korea, where she met with Foreign Minister Park Jin, Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho and a wide cross section of South Korean civil society that includes North Korean defectors, relatives of South Korean prisoners of war and abductees held in the North and residents of Cheorwon County, Gangwon, which lies adjacent to the demilitarized zone dividing the Korean Peninsula.

During her address to reporters, Salmon emphasized the importance of resolving the issue of thousands of South Korean POWs, abductees and detainees in the North, saying that there is “no time to waste” after their ageing families told her that they feel “forgotten.”

The plight of South Koreans held against their will in the North has received greater official attention since Kim was named unification minister.

His first official meeting in August upon taking office was with representatives and relatives of South Koreans who have been abducted and detained by North Korean agents.

While welcoming North Korea’s recent partial reopening of its borders, the UN special rapporteur also expressed hope that Pyongyang “will restart its engagement with the international community and with the UN human rights mechanisms,” calling the return of the UN country team to the North “an urgent priority.”

But she also said current international sanctions against Pyongyang could be recalibrated, noting that the UN’s own panel of experts on enforcement and monitoring had noted “unintended consequences” of sanctions on humanitarian relief efforts directed at the North.

Like the South Korean government and others, Salmon also voiced concerns that North Koreans in China and other countries could be repatriated against their will back to their repressive homeland.

“The UN human rights mechanisms, including my mandate, have regularly raised concerns with China and other [UN] member states that forcibly repatriated individuals to the DPRK are at real risk of torture and other ill-treatment upon return, along with other serious human rights violations,” Salmon said, referring to the North by the acronym for its official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“Member states must refrain from forced repatriation in compliance with the principle of non-refoulement, which is customary international law and applies to individuals at risk of being subject to torture and ill-treatment regardless of their migration status,” Salmon said.

The UN special rapporteur offered praise for Seoul’s domestic efforts to raise awareness of Pyongyang’s human rights issues, but also said South Korea “could take more measures to work with the international community.”

Since her appointment as the first female UN special rapporteur for North Korean human rights, Salmon has stressed violations experienced disproportionately by North Korean women, including their outsized burden as taxpayers and breadwinners from work in the North’s informal markets, the sexual and physical violence they face in detention, and the hardships they experience once they cross the North’s borders.

In response to a question from the Korea JoongAng Daily, Salmon also called on the South Korean government to increase “meaningful participation that considers interests of all women” in discussions regarding North Korean human rights, “not just two or three women at the table.”

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

13. Korea's independence heritage agency poised to launch anti-Japan campaign

Korea's independence heritage agency poised to launch anti-Japan campaign

The Korea Times · September 12, 2023

Activists protest against Japan's release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant during a rally in Seoul's central district of Jongno, Saturday. Yonhap

President Yoon at loggerheads with descendants of independence fighters over historical animosity

By Kang Hyun-kyung

Like other organizations reliant on state subsidies, the Heritage of Korean Independence (HKI) has been a staunch supporter of the government since its establishment in 1965.

Back then, independence fighters, their families and their descendants joined forces to create a group dedicated to passing on the legacy of Korea's independence movement during the Japanese colonial period on to future generations.

Over the past decades, government ties with the descendants of independence fighters have remained unfazed despite vicissitudes in domestic politics triggered mainly by government changes.

Recently, however, their relations showed signs of souring as HKI President Lee Jong-chan and some other members became vocal opponents of the Yoon Suk Yeol government.

The two sides have revealed a fundamental difference in how to handle South Korea's historical animosity to Japan, which formed during the latter's colonial rule.

President Yoon calls for the Korean public to move forward to cope with security challenges from North Korea. But the descendants of independence fighters disagree, claiming the purge of Japanese sympathizers remains unfinished.

The group has presented opposing views to the government's official narratives in several key issue areas, including the relocation of the bust of independence fighters.

"Inside the HKI, there is a group of vocal opponents and they keep inciting other members to stand against the Yoon government," a source familiar with the group told The Korea Times asking for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

"In a group chat on KakaoTalk which is comprised of about 300 members including several executives, they criticized the Yoon government's handling of the wastewater release from the Fukushima nuclear reactor. Some tout the impeachment of Patriots and Veterans Minister Park Min-shik for his recent remarks about independence fighter Hong Beom-do and Gen. Paik Sun-yup."

The source added that some hardliners put forth the purge of "pro-Japan legacy" as the group's ultimate goal to achieve.

If the group were to launch the anti-Japan campaign as expected, Yoon would face an uphill battle to keep pushing for his diplomatic agenda of deepening trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan to thwart security challenges from North Korea.

President Yoon Suk Yeol sits with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a summit, Sunday, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit held in New Delhi, India. Joint Press Corps

Since he was sworn in as president in May last year, President Yoon has sought to improve South Korea's relations with Japan, which derailed and turned sour during the previous Moon Jae-in government.

The Camp David trilateral summit held on Aug. 18 near Washington D.C. between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan has been praised for "opening a new era in trilateral cooperation" as the three leaders agreed to meet regularly to discuss ways to deepen cooperation in almost all issue areas, including defense and technology.

Since he was sworn in as president in May last year, Yoon has met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida six times. Their latest summit was held on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi last week.

The trilateral summit, meanwhile, drew cynical reactions from opposition parties. The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) downplayed the outcomes of the Camp David summit, alleging the trilateral summit only benefitted the U.S. and Japan with South Korea sidelined.

The DPK strove to rally support from the public to ignite the anti-Japan sentiment as Japan began the release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear reactor site.

The main opposition party is expected to keep playing the anti-Japan card as the National Assembly elections are to be held in April next year. A total of 300 parliamentary seats are up for grabs.

Should the descendants of independence fighters team up with the DPK to push their common anti-Japan agenda ahead of the elections, and in case their anti-Japan rhetoric successfully leads to the grassroots movement, Yoon will suffer the consequences.

The HKI has become a controversial group after its former leader Kim Won-woong (1944-2022) assumed the leadership in 2019.

During his decades-long career as a politician, Kim had zigzagged in political affiliations from conservative to liberal camps. He became a controversial figure after criticizing a DPK lawmaker for his withdrawal of support for the aborted bill to relocate tombs of the so-called Japan sympathizers from the national cemetery. He is known to have become a vocal critic of pro-Japan figures to curry favor with then the Moon Jae-in government.

"Kim filled key posts of the group with like-minded people and some of them are still there," said the source.

Kim stepped down from the leadership in 2022 for his alleged involvement in embezzlement.

He died in October 2022 after battling cancer amid the prosecution's investigation into him.

Kim Won-woong, front row left, then the leader of Heritage of Independence Fighters, chants a slogan at an anti-Japan protest in front of the HKI building in Yeouido, Seoul, in this 2019 file photo. Korea Times file

The Yoon government and the HKI, as well as its leader Lee, were at loggerheads in the relocation of the bust of independence fighter Hong Beom-do from the Korea Military Academy.

Lee harshly criticized the Ministry of National Defense for the relocation plan. However, the ministry announced it would proceed with the plan as scheduled.

The two sides clashed again last week after Patriots and Veterans Minister Park made a remark that HKI leader Lee is on the same page as the government.

Park quoted HKI leader Lee as saying that Gen. Paik Sun-yup was not a sympathizer of the Empire of Japan.

The HKI denied this.

"Our and Mr. Lee's positions on Gen. Paik are clear and consistent. Gen. Paik's feat and pro-Japan activities both should be remembered," the group said in a statement released on Sept. 5.

"Gen. Paik served (as second lieutenant) in the State of Manchuria Imperial Army during the Japanese colonial period. At the same time, however, it's also true that after Korea gained independence, he played a greater role in defending South Korea from North Korea's invasion of the country and his contribution to the military is also noteworthy."

The State of Manchuria (1932-1945) was a puppet state of Japan and its imperial army was established to suppress guerrilla activities in the eastern part of Manchuria.

The Korea Times · September 12, 2023

14. N. Korean state security officer shot by female detainee with his own gun

Resistance?

The brutality of the regime must be resisted.

N. Korean state security officer shot by female detainee with his own gun

The woman and her husband escaped, but were later caught and sent to a political prison camp

https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korean-state-security-officer-shot-female-detainee-own-gun/

By Jong So Yong - 2023.09.12 5:00pm

FILE PHOTO: A Ministry of State Security office in the Sino-North Korean border region. (Daily NK)

A North Korean correctional officer who was known to harass inmates was recently shot dead with his own gun at a state security office in North Hamgyong Province, Daily NK has learned.

“In late August, a correctional officer with the Orang County Ministry of State Security office was sexually harassing and tormenting a woman in detention in front of her husband when the exasperated woman snatched away the officer’s sidearm and shot him. The incident threw the Ministry of State Security into an uproar,” a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Friday, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

According to the source, the couple had been speaking on the phone with a South Korean broker in Musan when they were arrested by state security agents tracking them with a cell phone detector. They were handed over to the Orang County state security office and then jailed to be to interrogated.

The correctional officer who was on guard at the jail where the couple were detained had been drinking during the evening of the incident. He called over the woman and began sexually harassing her, telling her to stroke his face as her husband looked on.

When the woman tried to ignore him, he kicked her and made her kneel. Then he poked her breasts with his sidearm while making all kinds of humiliating sexual remarks.

The enraged husband demanded that the officer stop, but that just made the officer harass the woman even more. Unwilling to take any more of that treatment, the woman snatched the sidearm out of the officer’s hand. She then disengaged the safety and shot three times, killing the officer.

The woman had gained proficiency with firearms during her time in the military, the source said.

The deceased correctional officer was a man in his late 20s from South Pyongan Province. He had a reputation as being a nasty guard who would show up to work drunk and harass the inmates at the jail.

Couple denounced as “spies”

After fatally shooting the officer, the woman retrieved the cell key from his pocket, unlocked the door, and escaped from the state security office with her husband. But they were soon apprehended by the duty officer and other guards, who were drawn by the gunfire. They were beaten savagely and then put back under detention at the state security office, the source said.

“After being briefed on the incident, the provincial state security branch immediately sent agents to Orang County, who denounced the couple as spies conspiring with South Korea. Before the end of the day, they had been sent to a political prison camp,” the source said.

Residents of Orang County who heard rumors about the incident have been critical of the authorities’ response to the shooting, claiming that the woman had been right to kill the guard, the source said.

Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

15. North Korea’s Coming Breakout

I am disappointed. The author missed an opportunity to recommend a human rights up front approach, an information campaign, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

National Strategy for Countering North Korea

https://nipp.org/information_series/robert-joseph-robert-collins-joseph-detrani-nicholas-eberstadt-olivia-enos-david-maxwell-and-greg-scarlatoiu-national-strategy-for-countering-north-korea-no-545-january-23-2023/

North Korea’s Coming Breakout - War on

North Korea’s Coming Breakout - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com · by Jonathan Corrado · September 12, 2023

Bad news for the world is often welcome relief to North Korea, a country that thrives in the shadowy cracks of the international system. With global cooperation plummeting and competing blocs solidifying, the near to mid-term future will offer a sorely needed means of continued survival for an unrepentant and destabilizing Kim Jong Un’s regime. Over time, this may even culminate in North Korea’s emergence out of the shadows, shielded by a patchwork of revisionist allies who are united, more than anything else, by opposition to a rules-based order that has cast these countries as pariahs.

Three dynamics — one under way, one occurring in real time, and one conceivably occurring in the not-too-distant future — are threatening to enable North Korea’s destabilizing foreign policy practices. The first dynamic is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the second is an increasingly roguish direction for Iran and Syria; and the last is a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. All of these dynamics might help to grow and embolden the pool of nations subjected to international sanctions and opposed to the liberal international order. As demonstrated in the examples below, such countries perceive an increasingly small cost for engaging in illicit transactions with North Korea. In this way, global disintegration will provide refuge and sustenance for an unleashed Pyongyang that has unprecedented opportunities to proliferate, profiteer, and compel with near impunity.

For the past century, the Korean Peninsula has been subject to the indifferent (and sometimes hostile) twists of superpower competition. But from the outset, North Korea’s ruling family dynasts, the Kims, have learned to manipulate pattern breaks and schisms, reaping benefits from cracks in alliances between friends and foes alike. Kim Il Sung secured Soviet and Chinese support for his invasion of the South despite serious reservations in both Moscow and Beijing, and he then received security pacts from both countries during the Sino-Soviet split.

Become a Member

Looking back, the years 2016 and 2017 will represent the high-water mark for international cooperation on imposing costs for North Korea’s dangerous aggression. At that time, Russia and China supported the adoption of United Nations Security Council resolutions containing sectoral export prohibitions to slow the infusion of cash used by the Kim regime for its weapons programs. But the implementation of these sanctions dramatically declined in recent years. Kim Jong Un’s frantic spree of summits with Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping (five meetings between 2018 and 2019) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2019 was as much about bolstering his partnerships as it was about preparing for summits with U.S. President Donald Trump. Looking ahead, the new fragmented U.N. Security Council won’t simply dampen cooperative efforts to constrain North Korea’s weapons development; it could spur the growth and cross-pollination of multiple networks of illicit proliferation and procurement.

At a recent military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, Kim Jong Un sat aside two guests of honor: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chinese Politburo member Li Hongzhong. These atypical appearances at the country’s yearly parade are deeply significant. The fact that Shoigu travelled to Pyongyang in the middle of his country’s war of aggression against Ukraine signals Moscow’s reliance on continued North Korean military support in the form of artillery and other weapons, which North Korea gladly supplies in exchange for badly needed financial support. This week, Kim will make a rare trip abroad to meet with Putin in Vladivostok to discuss more arms assistance and military cooperation. And after a prolonged and severe pandemic lockdown, rumors are swirling that North Korea could reopen its borders imminently. When it does, it will rely on China for a bump in trade. Pyongyang clearly aims to end its isolation with strengthened partnerships that will enable a bigger breakout.

Russia

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has already opened up new profiteering and two-way proliferating opportunities for North Korea. Previously, Russia maintained at least a façade of U.N. sanctions implementation, even if evidence pointed to infractions. Now, Russia’s hostile relationship with the United States and Europe has eroded its enforcement of sanctions. Shoigu even praised North Korea’s defensive development despite economic sanctions and international isolation.

In addition to hosting North Korean workers and transferring Russian oil in excess of agreed-upon price caps, both in contravention of the sanctions, Russia and China blocked the passage of a new Security Council resolution seeking to impose costs against North Korea for its record-breaking spree of ballistic missile launches. In a move intended to obstruct the work of the U.N. panel of experts responsible for monitoring sanctions implementation on North Korea, Russia again collaborated with China to force the United Kingdom’s coordinator of the panel to step down.

When South Korea announced last winter it would join the multilateral effort to sanction Russia, Russian ambassador to South Korea Andrey Kulik warned that the bilateral relationship would “change course” and threatened to withdraw Russian support for cooperation on Korean Peninsula peace and nuclear security cooperation. Now, with debates heating up in Seoul about South Korea’s potential to provide lethal aid to Ukraine, the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, threatened to arm North Korea if that happens. The leadership in North Korea has begun referring to its relationship with Russia as “tactical and strategic collaboration.” To mark Russia’s National Day, Kim Jong Un sent a message to Putin on June 12 calling for “closer strategic cooperation” and castigating the United States and the West for “hegemonic” policy.

Russia’s motivation to strengthen ties with North Korea starts and ends with self-interest. Moscow derives numerous benefits from this increasingly close relationship. North Korea is supplying Russia with artillery shells and badly needed rockets and missiles, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The White House disclosed intelligence that Russia is seeking more munitions from North Korea, offering food and commodities in exchange. The U.S. Treasury Department rolled out sanctions on a Slovakian arms dealer who has brokered past exchanges between the governments in Moscow and Pyongyang and “is at the center” of the new proposed food-for-weapons deal. To make matters worse, the U.S. State Department worries that Kim’s June 12 message could foreshadow additional North Korean weapons shipments to Russia to support its invasion.

Indeed, when Kim travels to Vladivostok to meet Putin, Russia will ask for artillery shells and antitank missiles in exchange for providing North Korea with advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, according to U.S. officials. Such a transaction would prolong Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine and could also shift the nuclear deterrence dynamics on the Korean Peninsula in North Korea’s favor. Advancements in North Korea’s missile technology are aimed at evading and defeating the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance missile defense network. Quieter submarines could significantly enhance North Korea’s pursuit of the nuclear triad. Although unlikely to occur rapidly, both of these developments would carry profound challenges for the alliance defense posture.

Another benefit that Moscow derives is the fact that North Korea is one of the world’s few nations that recognize Russia’s illegal claim of sovereignty over breakaway states in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Pyongyang has even hinted it may send construction workers there. Since hosting North Korean workers is a violation of U.N. sanctions, Russia’s increasing acceptance of them on its soil can be interpreted as a reciprocal political benefit for Pyongyang in exchange for its outspoken support of the Kremlin’s war.

The relationship between Russia and the international community will likely continue down this path of deterioration, at least until some sort of settlement is reached in Ukraine. Putin even announced that his country would withdraw from participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty with the United States. This is welcome news for North Korea, which can expect continued and expanding opportunities to sell more weapons, export more workers, and earn more profits to fund its illicit nuclear and missile programs so long as Russia is at loggerheads with the international community.

Iran and Syria

Turning to the Middle East, there are two nations that have a history of engaging in proliferation activities with North Korea that are becoming increasingly estranged from the international community: Iran and Syria. The Joseph Biden administration has given up on resuscitating a nuclear deal with Iran that the Trump White House withdrew from, and U.S.-Iranian relations have continued to deteriorate. Now, given the questionable fate of the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the continued breakdown in U.S.-Iranian relations, and the ongoing domestic unrest from the Mahsa Amini protests, prospects for an offramp of tensions appear dim.

North Korea’s illicit arms dealing with Iran began in the early 1980s. During the Iran-Iraq war, about 90 percent of North Korea’s arms exports were destined for Iran. Missile cooperation began during this time period. The U.S. intelligence community assessed that “North Korean cooperation with Iran’s ballistic missile programs was ongoing and significant.” Experts have posited that Iran’s Shahab-3 missile could be modeled after North Korea’s Nodong missile, and aspects of Iran’s space launch vehicle share characteristics with the Hwasong-14 missile. This cooperation apparently slowed, according to 2016 testimony by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. However, cooperation on long-range missile technology resumed in 2020, according to a report by the U.N. panel of experts.

Less substantial evidence exists to definitively link North Korea and Iran on the nuclear front, although officials have repeatedly voiced concerns about that possibility, and nonofficial sources hint at potential collaboration. According to Dr. Bruce Bechtol, North Korea and Iran have cooperated on developing nuclear technology provided by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. A Japanese newspaper claimed that 200 North Korean nuclear scientists were working at uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz, Iran, in 2011. Iranian nuclear officials have attended nearly all of North Korea’s nuclear tests, according to Iranian defectors, and delegations of North Korean experts regularly travel to Iran for consultations, according to an Iranian opposition group in 2015. Moscow apparently supports the consolidation of Tehran-Pyongyang cooperation, with transiting North Korean officials stopping in Russia on their way to Iran.

North Korea has also proliferated to Syria, providing Scud B and Scud C missiles in the 1990s and helping to build a plutonium reactor in the 2000s. The reactor facility, known as Al-Kibar, was located near the Euphrates River in Syria’s northeast. It was apparently built with North Korean cooperation and modeled after North Korea’s 25-megawatt thermal reactor at Yongbyon. Israel acknowledged in 2018 that it had destroyed Al-Kibar in 2007. Syria disputed these allegations, but subsequent investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency uncovered “a significant number of chemically processed natural uranium particles” at the site of the destroyed facility. In 2012, Kim Jong Un publicly praised Syrian President Bashar al Assad and wished him success in quelling the rebellion threatening to dethrone him. Throughout the civil war, North Korea provided missiles and materials for chemical weapons. Syria hosted 800 North Korean construction workers in 2020, according to the U.N. panel of experts.

The situation with Iran will deteriorate further if efforts to replace the previous nuclear deal fall flat and U.S.-Iranian tensions worsen. For now, it seems like “the Supreme Leader in Iran has [not] yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program,” according to Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns. But that decision can be reversed at any time, and Tehran could turn to Pyongyang for more assistance in the form of proliferating technologies and providing technical guidance. In the meantime, at a minimum, Pyongyang will continue to assist Tehran with missiles. Syria, suffering from a devastating earthquake and over a decade of civil war, will keep looking to North Korea for support on the world stage and arms provisions behind the curtains. Equally concerning, looking ahead, Syria “could facilitate North Korea’s military cooperation with Iran and its proxies.” In the near future, North Korean proliferation to Iran and Syria will check at least three boxes that are Kim regime priorities: securing revenue, enabling U.S. adversaries, and drawing the world’s attention away from its nuclear activities by assisting new breakout states.

China

The emergence of these actors as a unified anti-U.S. bloc is most conspicuously evidenced by Russia and China’s “no-limits friendship” and Beijing’s ongoing endorsement of Moscow’s war of aggression in Ukraine. After establishing a military cooperation plan in 2019, China and Russia have conducted six joint air force patrols, including a June 6 incursion without warning into South Korea’s air defense identification zone. And Russian officials have hinted that North Korea could join in trilateral naval exercises.

China has to date been reluctant to go all in on this relationship by providing arms to Russia for the war, even while railing against “U.S. hegemony” and blaming NATO for the invasion. Beijing may yet provide lethal aid, despite the costs that would entail. In the meantime, China is already supporting Russia’s invasion by providing dual-use goods like transport vehicles, drones, and semiconductors, and ramping up purchases of Russian oil. This support may be sufficient to gain Russia’s support if Xi decides to pursue unification with Taiwan by force of arms.

It’s difficult to imagine a likely event that would more severely unwind the gains of globalization and fracture the international community than a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Regardless of the outcome, most wargame exercises forecast that the toll in human lives would be horrific and the economic impact would be widespread, causing an eruption of unprecedented schisms in the global system. Given the obvious costs for all, it would be difficult to find many clear winners in this contingency, except, of course, for North Korea. To understand why, we need to imagine the post-invasion reality.

The precise outcomes of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be shaped by the nature of the takeover attempt and the response of Taiwan and the international community. But it’s highly likely that the United States and its allies would strive to assist Taiwan and impose costs on China. The response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might serve as a model for the type of sanctions that could be meted out against China. Of course, China is a much more important trading partner and engine of global industry compared to Russia, so coalition building would have its complications. Nonetheless, it’s reasonable to project that some amount of ostracization would elicit a retaliatory blow from China, and fence-sitters all over the world would face increasing pressure by both Beijing and Washington to pick a side. Under tremendous strain, global systems of finance, technology, and trade would increasingly split and diverge.

Here’s where North Korea benefits. First, the geopolitical instability wrought by the invasion would provide an opportunity for the Kim regime to provoke and compel on the peninsula in an effort to demonstrate capabilities, change the status quo in its favor, and drive a wedge between the United States and South Korea. Second, for political, economic, and strategic reasons, North Korea would quickly side with China, and, most likely, China would cease to implement virtually all of the U.N. sectoral sanctions against North Korea, facilitating a huge windfall for North Korea. The regime could earn billions of dollars per year through exports of coal, fisheries, textiles, and overseas workers. This would also mean unrestrained imports of oil from China (and Russia). Cross-border Sino-Korean business ties and procurement networks would return to and then surpass presanction levels. Third, North Korea’s existing proliferation partners (including Iran, Russia, and Syria) would likely join this team as well, providing even greater opportunities for enhanced collaboration throughout this expanding network of actors with a diminished fear of sanctions. The emergence of parallel global economic and technological systems would give North Korea safe harbor to attack the opposing bloc through financial, cyber, and kinetic means, likely with the endorsement of its partners.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Gaming out worst-case scenarios serves as a useful reminder that seemingly unconnected global developments can have ruinous downstream effects. This underscores the point that the United States should proactively cooperate with allies and partners to plan for the worst and be ready to respond effectively. This also serves as a counterargument against the notion that coalitions should be regional in nature and focused on immediate problem sets, such as marshaling European Union partners to focus on the Russian invasion and working separately with Asian partners on North Korea and Taiwan. That approach disregards the increasingly cross-regional integration of the problem sets. Values-based global coalitions are better suited to the task and will be more durable over time.

Additionally, this thought experiment provides another compelling reason to actively cooperate with competing states on averting crises through confidence-building measures, red-line phones, and institutionalized dialogues at the top military and diplomatic channels. These steps could reduce the likelihood of dangerous retaliatory exchanges that could provoke the worst version of this grim future, which would serve very few people save for a few elites in the capital cities of Pyongyang, Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus.

The United States should always seek to de-escalate and build conditions that reduce tensions and precipitate rapprochement. For example, a negotiated settlement to freeze North Korean missile and nuclear tests would substantially limit Pyongyang’s ability to develop these programs and so could be worth concessions from the United States. That said, the national security apparatus needs to remain clear-eyed about the challenges ahead and envision scenarios in which U.S. diplomats are unable to dial down tensions.

North Korea has friends of convenience that bond over shared antipathy. The United States has a deep and wide network of allies that share not merely interests but also values. The United States should therefore anchor its approach in deep multilateralism, with as broad a coalition as possible, on two essential tasks.

First, sanctions enforcement. The purpose of sanctions is not to change the target country’s decision calculus overnight, but rather to serve as one aspect of diplomacy to incrementally change the factors and timetables that affect adversary thinking, deny funds and materials needed for weapons programs, and impose costs as a warning to potential future breakout states. The implementation of sanctions is a global effort requiring a great deal of time and effort to work with regional country firms that are often undereducated on U.N. Security Council resolutions containing prohibitions on certain interactions with North Korean entities. As sanctions fatigue settles in and new U.N. Security Council resolutions appear a dismal prospect, it will be an uphill climb to, first, work with partners to identify emerging patterns of proliferation/procurement and, second, to reenergize implementation through a proactive (not punitive) series of regional diplomatic engagements. Third parties in other countries are often the key points of connection facilitating the illicit transfers. This is why broad coalitions of alert and active partners are needed to enforce prohibitions and stem the flow of deadly weapons between the two pariah states.

Next, the United States should work in concert with its allies, particularly the Republic of Korea, and increasingly as a trilateral with Japan. A recent summit meeting at Camp David between U.S. President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is a great start. Among other joint agenda items, the allies could enhance information sharing, defensive exercises, and ballistic missile defense. The allied deterrence posture should evolve in conjunction with the developing threat. A more efficient and effective posture can be built around deterrence by denial rather than deterrence by punishment, which will become too costly as North Korea expands its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems. Lastly, over a longer time horizon, this means new capabilities tailored to matching and overcoming North Korea’s ability to coerce and act with impunity. This should include, but not be limited to, improving theater-level and national missile defense and modernizing America’s nuclear forces.

Last, the United States must expand its strategic imagination in intelligence reports and military planning. As explored in this project by the Atlantic Council’s Markus Garlauskas, the likelihood of a two-front conflict is non-zero and worth serious consideration and accommodation. Unfortunately, cognitive and organizational biases prevent the United States from acknowledging these risks and taking the proper precautions, as shown here.

History shows that North Korea cannot be ignored. The more preparation is done today, the easier the answer will be tomorrow.

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Jonathan Corrado is director of policy for The Korea Society, a non-profit located in New York City. He produces programming and conducts research on a range of security, diplomacy, and socioeconomic issues impacting the U.S.-Korea Alliance, the Korean Peninsula, and Northeast Asia.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Commentary

warontherocks.com · by Jonathan Corrado · September 12, 2023

16. Opposition leader set to appear for questioning over suspected illegal remittance to N. Korea

Opposition leader set to appear for questioning over suspected illegal remittance to N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · September 12, 2023

SEOUL, Sept. 12 (Yonhap) -- Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was set to appear before prosecutors Tuesday for his second questioning over allegations of his involvement in a company's illegal remittance to North Korea in 2019.

Lee, chair of the main opposition Democratic Party, was set to show up at the Suwon District Prosecutors Office at 1:30 p.m. to face questioning on charges of third-party bribery, three days after he underwent the first round of questioning on Saturday.

The investigation centers on allegations that Ssangbangwool Group, an underwear maker, illegally transferred US$8 million to North Korea between January 2019 and January 2020 on behalf of Gyeonggi Province.

Prosecutors suspect that, of the total remittance, $5 million was meant for Gyeonggi's smart farm support program in North Korea while the remaining $3 million was what the North had demanded as the cost of facilitating Lee's visit to North Korea.

Lee has been on a hunger sit-in against the Yoon Suk Yeol administration since Aug. 31.

Prosecutors plan to have medical workers and an ambulance on standby for Tuesday's questioning, which is expected to focus on the circumstances of the $3 million remittance to North Korea and other suspicions.

Lee has squarely rejected all allegations against him.

Following his questioning on Saturday, Lee told reporters that the investigation team "failed to put forward even a single piece of evidence" and accused the prosecution of "trying to cook up crimes out of what commonsensically would have not been possible."

Lee Jae-myung, chair of the Democratic Party, heads toward the Suwon District Prosecutors Office for questioning on Sept. 9, 2023. (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · September 12, 2023

17. Activists take new approach to stop China from sending back N. Koreans

I am attending the play on Thursday evening.

Activists take new approach to stop China from sending back N. Koreans

The Korea Times · September 12, 2023

Activists, including a young child, protest against China's forced repatriations of North Korean defectors in front of the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in this photo taken in July. One of the activists said he did not want his face shown as he travels to China regularly for business. Courtesy of One Korea Network

Activists urged to leverage Hangzhou Asian Games to influence Chinese policy

By Kang Hyun-kyun

Human rights activists have been staging weekly protests in front of the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Washington, D.C., urging Beijing to stop the forced repatriations North Korean escapees back to the North.

Henry Song, a Korean American human rights activist and director of Washington D.C.-based think tank, One Korea Network, has been taking part in the weekly protest since July, according to U.S. citizens who support the rallies.

"There is great interest from passers-by and the general public," he said in a recent email interview with The Korea Times. "Even the police are tacitly in support of what we do."

One Korea Network is one of the groups that organized protests in front of the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. The weekly protests are held between noon and 1 p.m. and several other groups also hold rallies there.

"Most Americans are aware of the atrocities committed by the CCP and many encourage and support what we do," Song said.

The CCP is an acronym of the Chinese Communist Party.

The positive feedback from the American public is encouraging for activists like Song.

However, through decades of experience as a human rights activist, Song has come to realize that rallies and protests have a limited impact on raising public awareness of China's forced repatriations of North Korean escapees.

Collective action helped activists draw the public's attention to the issue. But vocal rallies have not changed China's course of action. Beijing continues to repatriate North Korean defectors despite international condemnation of the practice.

Joel Atkinson, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said China will continue to send North Korean escapees back to the North ― this time more deliberately.

"China has repatriated thousands of North Korean refugees over decades, and will almost certainly do so with those it currently has in detention," he said. "Given how Beijing operates, it will happen little by little across an extended period of time, in a way that it is very difficult for the outside world to know about, or have clear evidence of, what is going on," Atkinson added.

A poster of the one-person show, "Sell Me: I Am From North Korea"/ Courtesy of One Korea NetworkAs China continues to ignore the outcries for help by the human rights activists to free North Korean detainees, some Washington D.C.-based advocates have tried a new approach to make their voices heard.

They are using arts and theater as a medium to reach out and educate a wider audience about the deadly consequences of China's forced repatriations of North Korean escapees.

One Korea Network is scheduled to present the play, "Sell Me: I am from North Korea," a solo show featuring Baek Sora, in Washington D.C.

Based on true stories of female North Korean defectors, the one-person show revolves around a 15-year-old North Korean girl, Ji-sun, who is determined to sell herself to an old Chinese man to make money to buy medicine for her dying mother. It will premiere at the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center on Sep. 14 in collaboration with the Office of Rep. Carol Miller.

"We are showcasing the performance of the play to reach out to the general public using the medium of theater to educate and move people," said Song.

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, torchbearer Wang Qinou runs with the torch during the torch relay of the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou in eastern China's Zhejiang Province on Friday, Sept. 8, 2023. Xinhua-YonhapWhile activists in the U.S. search for new ways to increase pressure on China, some activists in Seoul remain skeptical about the effectiveness of protest rallies.

An unnamed head of a Seoul-based defector group said he has no plans to hold rallies or take other types of collective action to protest China's forced repatriations of North Korean defectors.

"China has not heeded our demand. Personally, I feel frustrated whenever China turns a blind eye to our collective action," he said, asking for anonymity due to a potential backlash from the South Korean public.

Some experts advise activists to team up to launch a coordinated anti-repatriation campaign ahead of the 2023 Hangzhou Asian Games to pressure Beijing to release the North Korean defectors detained in China and refrain from sending them back to the North.

"Currently, there are no binding measures that can force countries like North Korea and China to protect the human rights of North Korean defectors," said Cho Jung-hyun, a professor of international law at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

But he said there is a glimmer of hope for North Korean detainees as China will host the Asian Games this month. The Hangzhou Asian Games will take place between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8.

Cho said China would not want its brutal repatriations of North Korean defectors to dominate media coverage ahead of the sports event, which it aims to use as momentum to foster national pride and soft power.

Previously, some human rights groups launched boycott campaigns ahead of the 2008 and 2023 Summer and Winter Beijing Olympics to put pressure on China to improve its human rights track record.

Seo Jae-pyong, president of the North Korean Defectors' Association, said the Asian Games could be a factor affecting China's decision on when to send North Korean detainees back.

"China and North Korea need to agree on the timing of repatriation. If China sends them back before the Asian Games, it would draw a backlash from the international community. I think China will not want to ruin the sports event, so it will probably delay the repatriations until after the Asian Games," he said.

China tries to justify its repatriation of North Korean defectors by denying their refugee status and claiming that they are economic migrants who have illegally crossed the border. Cho said such a claim is flawed.

According to him, China's repatriation of North Koreans cannot be justified under the United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhumane or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.

"China is a signatory of the convention. Article 2 of the convention bans member states from sending people to countries or places where they can be subject to any type of inhumane treatment," he said. "Considering that torture, executions and other types of inhumane treatment have been widely reported in North Korea, China is not supposed to send North Korean defectors back to the North."

In this photo taken in July, Henry Song, a human rights activist and director of the Washington, D.C.-based think tank, One Korea Network, stages a one-person rally in front of the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. capital, upholding a banner in English and Chinese urging Beijing to stop forcibly repatriating North Korean defectors held in China. Courtesy of Henry Song

The Korea Times · September 12, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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Activists take new approach to stop China from sending back N. Koreans