Quotes of the Day:
"All wars are fought twice, the first time on the battlefield, the second time in memory."
~Viet Thanh Nguyen
"Culture constrains strategy."
Culture beats strategy."
Culture trumps strategy."
Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast"
- This last is often attributed to Peter Drucker but there is no definitive citation.
“So, despite the popular view of Stoicism as a philosophy that would strip us of most emotions, the ancient Stoics argue that the very best of us show rational exuberance and desire, and a cautious wariness, lest we be too easily led astray or deceived. We cherish friends and nurture warm and welcoming attitudes toward them. This is what it is to be righteous. Put bluntly, even sages have emotional skin in the game.”
- Nancy Sherman, Stoic Wisdom: Ancient Lessons for Modern Resilience
1. U.S. ready to help address N.K. humanitarian concerns regardless of denuclearization: envoy
2. Unification ministry vows efforts for resumption of inter-Korean liaison office as it marks 3rd anniversary
3. Nine Hoeryong residents arrested and tried for using foreign mobile phones
4. North Korea once again imports refined oil from China
5. IAEA chief calls North's nuclear activities 'cause for serious concern'
6. U.S. still open to dialogue with North, despite weekend tests
7. The China factor (ROK/US Alliance)
8. Hell-bent on engagement north-South Korea)
9. North Korea missile tests fly under the radars of South, U.S.
10. South Koreans sour on China ahead of Wang Yi visit
11. A New Look at Biden’s North Korea Strategy
12. In Signal to the US, North Korea Tests New Long-Range Cruise Missiles
13. North Korea Tests New Long-Range Cruise Missile: What You Should Know
14. N.K. calls for speedy recovery efforts in flood-hit eastern regions
15. North Korea Tests First Cruise Missiles Capable of Hitting Japan
16. North Korea capable of arming 'strategic' missile with nuclear warhead to 'surprise' Japan
1. U.S. ready to help address N.K. humanitarian concerns regardless of denuclearization: envoy
Again, the US, the ROK, and the international community are more concerned with the welfare of the Korean people in the north than is Kim Jong-un. If he had sincere concerns about their welfare he would accept international humanitarian assistance.
(3rd LD) U.S. ready to help address N.K. humanitarian concerns regardless of denuclearization: envoy | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS more info in paras 8-9)
By Song Sang-ho and Kim Seung-yeon
TOKYO/SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- The United States is prepared to work with North Korea to address its humanitarian concerns "regardless of progress on denuclearization," Washington's point man on Pyongyang said Tuesday.
Ambassador Sung Kim made the remarks after holding three-way talks with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts, Noh Kyu-duk and Takehiro Funakoshi, respectively, in Tokyo to discuss humanitarian aid and other incentives to resume dialogue with the North.
The talks came amid renewed security concerns over Pyongyang's weekend test-firings of long-range cruise missiles and signs of its reactivation of a plutonium-producing nuclear reactor.
"We are prepared to work cooperatively with the DPRK to address areas of humanitarian concerns regardless of progress on denuclearization," Kim told reporters after the trilateral talks and a bilateral meeting with Noh.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"The United States supports the provision of humanitarian aid, consistent with international standards for access and monitoring to the most vulnerable North Koreans," he added.
He also stressed Washington's backing for "certain" inter-Korean humanitarian cooperation projects.
Noh took note of "considerable progress" in recent discussions between the South and the U.S. over potential humanitarian support for the North, stressing spadework has been done for cooperation with the North.
"Going forward, the South and the U.S. will explore creative ways to create an opening for dialogue with the North," Noh said. "We expect the North to respond to the joint efforts for dialogue."
In recent months, Seoul and Washington have been thrashing out how to reengage with Pyongyang through humanitarian cooperation in such areas as public health, antivirus quarantines, sanitation and clean water.
But questions linger over whether the North would shift to dialogue given its avowed calls for self-reliance to overcome its economic hardships that have deepened under global sanctions and pandemic-driven border closures.
Kim also repeated the U.S.' offer to meet with the North "without preconditions," though he reiterated Washington's "responsibility" to implement the U.N. Security Council resolutions on the North and its dedication to advocating for North Koreans' human rights.
"To explore the potential for the diplomacy, the U.S. continues to reach out to Pyongyang to restart dialogue," he said. "Our intent is clear: We harbor no hostile intent towards DPRK, and we're open to meeting with them without preconditions."
At the start of the trilateral meeting, Kim stressed America's "strong" security commitment to South Korea, apparently mindful about the latest flare-up of tensions caused by the North's recent cruise missile tests.
"Our commitment to the security of Japan and ROK is strong," he said, referring to South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea. "The recent developments in DPRK are a reminder of the importance of close communication and cooperation between the allies."
In recent months, Seoul has been revving up diplomacy to reengage with Pyongyang, seeking to tamp down lingering skepticism over a peace drive overshadowed by the reclusive state's continued pursuit of nuclear and missile programs.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has recently reported indications of the North resuming the operation of a 5-megawatt nuclear reactor at its main Yongbyon complex, including the discharge of cooling water from the reactor.
Noh, Kim and Funakoshi last held their three-way talks in Seoul in June. Last month alone, Noh and Kim held face-to-face talks in Seoul and Washington -- a sign of beefed-up cooperation among the countries over the North Korean issue.
Nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang have remained stalled since the Hanoi summit in 2019 between then U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ended without a deal.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
elly@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. Unification ministry vows efforts for resumption of inter-Korean liaison office as it marks 3rd anniversary
The South should demand that north Korea rebuild the building. Why should the South have to pay twice for it? But that is one aspect of Kim Jong-un's long con.
Unification ministry vows efforts for resumption of inter-Korean liaison office as it marks 3rd anniversary | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- The unification ministry said it will continue efforts to resume operations of the inter-Korean liaison office as it marked the third anniversary of the office, an official said Tuesday.
This year's anniversary comes as the North blew up the liaison office building in June last year in anger over the sending of anti-Pyongyang leaflets by activists in the South.
The North also remains unresponsive to calls from South Korea via liaison and military hotlines after they were restored late July following a yearlong severance.
"The government considers it unfortunate that the operations of the inter-Korean liaison office continue to remain suspended," a ministry official said.
"We will continue to make efforts for the restoration of the inter-Korean communication lines and the resumption of the liaison office," she said.
The official added that the North has not responded to the regular phone calls via the inter-Korean liaison office as of Tuesday morning.
The joint liaison office opened in the North's border city of Kaesong in September 2018 to support inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation after a summit agreement between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in April that year.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Nine Hoeryong residents arrested and tried for using foreign mobile phones
External information is an existential threat to the regime. Note the remittance brokers. This has been an important conduit for money from escapees in the South to get money back to their families still in the north. It has also been a source of funding for corrupt party/security officials who extort money from the brokers and the families.
Nine Hoeryong residents arrested and tried for using foreign mobile phones - Daily NK
A public trial of four men and five women took place in front of over 1,000 people
In late August, North Korean authorities publicly tried users of illegal foreign-made mobile phones in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province.
According to a Daily NK source in the province on Friday, nine local residents were publicly tried in the courtyard in front of Hoeryong’s cultural center at 10 AM on Aug. 27.
The nine had been arrested for either using foreign-made mobile phones to receive remittances from North Korean defectors or for smuggling with China.
Ahead of the public trial, the local branch of the Ministry of State Security sent an order to all organizations within the city to attend the trial. This was to show “what awaits those caught engaging in anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior.”
The public trial of four men and five women took place in front of over 1,000 people who gathered in front of the cultural hall that morning.
The court sentenced three men and four women who had acted as remittance “brokers” while using foreign-made mobile phones to contact defectors living in South Korea or other countries.
The court described the defendants as people who had already been caught several times by the Ministry of State Security but let go. While condemning them for failing to mend their ways despite the repeated clemency they were given, the court gave them 15 years of forced labor.
A scene from a street market in Hoeryong. / Image: Daily NK
The court also gave seven years of forced labor to a person who transferred money from North Korean defectors to their families and who had attempted suicide after being caught by the Ministry of State Security.
The individual in question received the money through their daughter, who had illegally crossed the border into China.
The court was particularly critical about how the defendants allegedly “stirred up” public sentiment by using several different foreign-made mobile phones to consume and distribute South Korean newspapers, films or music, or to bring unpermitted foreign videos into the country.
According to the source, the court said the accused had committed “treason against the nation” by going along with “enemy schemes to collapse our nation from the inside,” and that “not even death could wash away their crimes.”
“However, the court also said it had greatly reduced the sentences as the accused had reflected on their crimes and sworn not to commit this sort of treason again if given a chance,” he said.
One of those standing trial was reportedly sentenced to reeducation.
The court explained that the individual had turned himself in to the Ministry of State Security with three Chinese-made mobile phones, and that he had provided five tons of corn and two tons of rice to workers reconstructing the home of Kim Il Sung’s first wife Kim Jong Suk, a historic revolutionary site.
The court said that “to such a sincerely repentant person, we are giving a chance for rehabilitation.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
4. North Korea once again imports refined oil from China
China is complicit in both north Korean human rights abuses and sanctions evasion activities.
North Korea once again imports refined oil from China - Daily NK
North Korea has once again imported refined oil from China, Daily NK has learned. Amongst themselves, officials in North Korea are saying that imports of oil from China may continue through the end of the year.
According to a Daily NK source in North Korea on Thursday, North Korea imported a large amount of oil through the port of Nampo on Sept. 1 and 2.
Just how much oil was imported remains unconfirmed, but it was reportedly a lot given that it took four medium-sized cargo ships to transport it.
Most of the oil will reportedly go to the military and munitions factories, though some of it will likely go to the transportation sector as well. In particular, some of the oil provided to the military appears to have been used during the military parade to mark the country’s foundation day on Sept. 9.
Diesel accounted for most of the oil imported through the port this time around, according to the source.
When oil is imported, some of it gets distributed in markets regardless of which government agency it gets supplied to, either through oil distribution centers or illegal means. Because of this, market prices reflect the imports within two or three days, the source said.
An investigation by Daily NK found that diesel prices suddenly fell across North Korea from early September.
As of Sept. 6, a kilogram of diesel cost KPW 3,600 in Pyongyang, KPW 3,800 in Sinuiju and KPW 3,800 in Hyesan. This was 27-29% less than prices recorded on Aug. 22.
38 North Korea reported on Sept. 4, 2021, that North Korea restarted construction of a new wharf in Nampo Port. / Image: 38 North
The price of gasoline, however, was KPW 7,000 in Pyongyang, KPW 7,300 in Sinuiju and KPW 7,500 in Hyesan as of Sept. 6. This differed little from prices recorded on Aug. 22, when it cost KPW 7,000 in Pyongyang, KPW 7,300 in Sinuiju and KPW 7,600 in Hyesan.
North Korean officials reportedly are saying that imports may continue at least through the end of the year because the oil shipments “must be the result of some sort of secret agreement” between Pyongyang and Beijing.
This is to say, North Korea agreed to provide mineral resources to China in return for essential and raw materials North Korea requires, such as oil.
With close ties between North Korea and China growing more important amid continuing tensions between the United States, China and North Korea, quiet Chinese assistance to North Korea seems set to continue for the foreseeable future.
Political conditions in North Korea and China may also bring the two countries together at a faster pace.
This year is politically significant in both countries. In North Korea, the year marks the 110th year of Juche (based on the year of Kim Il Sung’s birth in 1912) and the 10th year of Kim Jong Un’s rise to power. In China, the year marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.
Accordingly, the strengthening of bilateral ties may have an important impact on the internal politics of the two countries.
North Korean authorities also appear to be storing some of the oil imported from China this year.
“The thinking appears to be that we have to save the oil ahead of time when imports are relatively smooth,” said the source. “Because you don’t know how the international situation will change next year, the authorities look set to store a significant amount of the oil this year.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
5. IAEA chief calls North's nuclear activities 'cause for serious concern'
Simply stated: north Korea shows us there is no intention by the regime eto give up nuclear weapons.
Excerpts:
A radiochemical laboratory at the same complex had also been operating for five months from February to July, suggesting that it had re-processed a full batch of spent fuel in that time frame.
Re-processing allows the recovery of any remaining product in spent nuclear fuel that could undergo fission again in a new fuel assembly. Fission is the splitting of heavy nuclei, such as uranium, which releases energy.
In its August report, the IAEA described the activities at the reactor and laboratory as "deeply troubling" and in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Grossi also said in his Tuesday report that although the Yongbyon centrifuge enrichment facility appeared not to be in operation at the time of the previous report, the North appears to have removed the cooling units from the Yongbyon centrifuge enrichment facility.
Centrifuge enrichment is a physical process to concentrate one isotope in uranium — U-235, the main fissile type of uranium — relative to others. This isotype is used in the fission process to produce energy in nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons.
In addition to Yongbyon, the IAEA observed signs of continued internal construction activities at the light water reactor under construction at the Kangson nuclear complex just outside Pyongyang, where the North is suspected of conducting uranium enrichment.
Tuesday
September 14, 2021
IAEA chief calls North's nuclear activities 'cause for serious concern'
Rafael Grossi [IAEA]
The chief of the United Nations nuclear watchdog called North Korea's continuing nuclear activities "a cause for serious concern" in his statement to the agency's board of directors on Monday.
In his report, Director-General Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that the body observed signs of activity at the Yongbyon nuclear complex from mid-February to early July.
Pyongyang expelled all IAEA monitors and inspectors from the country in 2009, but the agency continues to monitor activities in the North through satellite imagery to make assessments on the country's nuclear program.
The Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, located 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of the capital Pyongyang, is the North's largest and best known nuclear facility, responsible for producing the fissile material used in the regime's six nuclear tests.
The agency most recently released a report in late August saying that the main 5-megawatt nuclear reactor has been discharging cooling water since July, which was likely used to remove heat from the nuclear reactor core.
A radiochemical laboratory at the same complex had also been operating for five months from February to July, suggesting that it had re-processed a full batch of spent fuel in that time frame.
Re-processing allows the recovery of any remaining product in spent nuclear fuel that could undergo fission again in a new fuel assembly. Fission is the splitting of heavy nuclei, such as uranium, which releases energy.
In its August report, the IAEA described the activities at the reactor and laboratory as "deeply troubling" and in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Grossi also said in his Tuesday report that although the Yongbyon centrifuge enrichment facility appeared not to be in operation at the time of the previous report, the North appears to have removed the cooling units from the Yongbyon centrifuge enrichment facility.
Centrifuge enrichment is a physical process to concentrate one isotope in uranium — U-235, the main fissile type of uranium — relative to others. This isotype is used in the fission process to produce energy in nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons.
In addition to Yongbyon, the IAEA observed signs of continued internal construction activities at the light water reactor under construction at the Kangson nuclear complex just outside Pyongyang, where the North is suspected of conducting uranium enrichment.
"The new indications of the operation of the [5-megawatt] reactor and the Radiochemical Laboratory are deeply troubling," Grossi said.
“I call upon the [the North] to comply fully with its obligations under relevant UN Security Council resolutions, to cooperate promptly with the Agency in the full and effective implementation of its [Non-Proliferation Treaty] Safeguards Agreement and to resolve all outstanding issues, especially those that have arisen during the absence of Agency inspectors from the country.”
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
6. U.S. still open to dialogue with North, despite weekend tests
Anywhere, anytime, without pre-conditions.
It is Kimwho is trying to set the "precondition" of sanctions relief in return for a promise to tak,
Tuesday
September 14, 2021
U.S. still open to dialogue with North, despite weekend tests
Photos released on Monday by the North's Korea Central News Agency show new cruise missiles being fired from a transporter erector launcher and in flight during weekend tests. [KCNA]
The United States remains open to dialogue with North Korea to convince the country to commit to denuclearization, a White House spokesperson said Monday, local time, after the North revealed it tested new cruise missiles over the weekend.
“Our position has not changed when it comes to North Korea,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, principal deputy spokeswoman for the White House, after being asked by reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Boise, Idaho, where President Joe Biden was set to deliver remarks about wild fires ravaging the area.
“We remain prepared to engage with the DPRK toward our objective of complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” she added, using the acronym for the official name of North Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Monday that it successfully tested a new cruise missile over the weekend.
Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby did not say at a Monday press conference whether the most recent launches violated United Nations Security Council resolutions — which only ban ballistic missile tests by the North — but said that the tests “highlight again the threat that the DPRK continues to pose to the region and to its neighbors.”
Jean-Pierre described the U.S. government’s approach to North Korea as “calibrated” and “practical” and said the United States is “open to and will explore diplomacy with DPRK to make practical progress that increases the security of the United States, our allies, our deployed forces.”
“Our offer [is] to meet anywhere, anytime, without preconditions,” she added, saying that ongoing diplomatic efforts have not changed.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
7. The China factor (ROK/US Alliance)
Excerpts:
The Five Eyes was based on the UK-USA security agreement signed in 1946. In 1955, Canada, Australia and New Zealand joined to expand the alliance to the Five Eyes. The United States treats those countries more closely than its allies such as Korea, Japan and other NATO countries. Therefore, joining the Five Eyes is considered as an upgrade of an alliance with the U.S.
The Moon administration has missed critical opportunities while walking on eggshells around China. It stayed out of the Quad and delayed and reduced the annual Korea-U.S. joint military exercises. At the end of last month, a British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth and its strike group was supposed to make a port call at Busan and conduct a joint military drill with the Korean Navy, but it called off the plan and conducted a humanitarian search and rescue exercise instead. Korea said it was due to the pandemic, but observers said Korea was trying to not disturb China.
But Japan was different. Britain’s Royal Navy conducted a joint drill with Japanese Self Defense Forces and the U.S. Navy in the waters south of Okinawa, near China. The F-35B fighter jets’ takeoff and landing exercise was the Japan’s first maritime joint exercise with the British Navy. If Korea continues to walk on eggshells around China, unlike Japan, how will the U.S. consider Korea’s value as an ally?
As the rivalry between America and China grows fiercer, Korea will face more pressures from both of them to pick a side. China’s status, particularly in economy, requires a careful consideration for us. But it is unwise to hesitate for an issue when it is clear that we will have more gains than losses. Furthermore, China has not reciprocated Korea’s decision at all. If you show favors all the time, they will take it for granted.
Tuesday
September 14, 2021
The China factor
Nam Jeong-ho
The author is a columnist of the JoongAng Ilbo.
Whenever it has an opportunity, the Moon Jae-in administration praises the importance of the Korea-U.S. alliance. When meeting with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines in May, Moon said the bilaterally alliance is not just about security but also about universal values. But you can see the truth in actions, not words. The Moon administration has repeated acts that weakened the alliance. It treats the alliance as a white elephant while trying to please North Korea and China.
The government’s true intention was seen at the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on Sept. 7, when lawmakers questioned the government about Korea’s possible participation in the “Five Eyes,” an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Britain and the United States.
Rep. Kim Young-joo of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) asked the Foreign Ministry if the government has reviewed a possibility of joining the alliance, as the U.S. Congress has recently asked the Biden administration to research and report if it is desirable to invite Korea, Japan, India and Germany to the alliance. The Five Eyes members share security information collected through Echelon, a global network of electronic spy stations. Joining the intelligence alliance will elevate Korea’s status as the most valued ally of the United States, and Korea will receive extremely sensitive data from the five members. It means Korea will obtain superior intelligence assets.
President Moon Jae-in listens to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his visit to the Blue House on Nov. 26, 2020. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
However, First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Choi Jong-kun, replied, “We have not considered and are not considering the option.”
Kim, then, said, “It is an alliance built to keep China in check, and we need to have a healthy relationship with China.” Although participating in the Five Eyes will bring about enormous benefits, the administration has no intention to join it because of China, just like it stayed out of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
In contrast, Japan’s attitude is clearly different. Over the past years, Japan has fiercely lobbied to become the “sixth eye.” In August last year, a report said the British government is considering inviting Japan, and then Defense Minister Taro Kono immediately announced Tokyo’s intention to participate. In the near future, it is expected that the Five Eyes will include Japan.
The Five Eyes was based on the UK-USA security agreement signed in 1946. In 1955, Canada, Australia and New Zealand joined to expand the alliance to the Five Eyes. The United States treats those countries more closely than its allies such as Korea, Japan and other NATO countries. Therefore, joining the Five Eyes is considered as an upgrade of an alliance with the U.S.
The Moon administration has missed critical opportunities while walking on eggshells around China. It stayed out of the Quad and delayed and reduced the annual Korea-U.S. joint military exercises. At the end of last month, a British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth and its strike group was supposed to make a port call at Busan and conduct a joint military drill with the Korean Navy, but it called off the plan and conducted a humanitarian search and rescue exercise instead. Korea said it was due to the pandemic, but observers said Korea was trying to not disturb China.
But Japan was different. Britain’s Royal Navy conducted a joint drill with Japanese Self Defense Forces and the U.S. Navy in the waters south of Okinawa, near China. The F-35B fighter jets’ takeoff and landing exercise was the Japan’s first maritime joint exercise with the British Navy. If Korea continues to walk on eggshells around China, unlike Japan, how will the U.S. consider Korea’s value as an ally?
As the rivalry between America and China grows fiercer, Korea will face more pressures from both of them to pick a side. China’s status, particularly in economy, requires a careful consideration for us. But it is unwise to hesitate for an issue when it is clear that we will have more gains than losses. Furthermore, China has not reciprocated Korea’s decision at all. If you show favors all the time, they will take it for granted.
8. Hell-bent on engagement north-South Korea)
"Peace at any cost.'' And such cost can be pretty expensive. But it is almost like the north is doing everything it can to provide reasons why the South should not engage. Yet it still wants to.
Tuesday
September 14, 2021
Hell-bent on engagement
The tests of advanced cruise missiles by North Korea last weekend pose a serious threat to our security. Nevertheless, our military intelligence authority could not detect any sign before or even after the tests. The brass became aware of the missile tests only after North Korea’s state mouthpiece announced them. If the missiles had been launched in a real battle, they would have dealt a critical blow to South Korea. Given the missiles’ shooting range of 1,500 kilometers (932 miles), they could strike the entire area of South Korea and reach as far as U.S. bases in Japan.
In January, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un specifically mentioned cruise missiles in the Workers’ Party Congress in which he vowed to ratchet up the country’s nuclear capabilities and develop tactical nuclear weapons. His mentioning of the word “nuclear” 36 times in a speech to the congregation led to the completion of the cruise missile in eight months. That suggests gradual advancement of its nuclear capability according to its timetable. Despite the frequent accentuation of Pyongyang’s determination to denuclearize by President Moon Jae-in and his aides, the way North Korea behaves points in exactly the opposite direction.
A bigger worry comes from the Moon Jae-in administration’s careless attitude towards North Korea. The reaction government officials showed after the missile tests dumbfound us. Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong linked the missile tests to the need for Seoul to resume talks with Pyongyang. He appears to use a brazen provocation by North Korea as an excuse for dialogue. Earlier, First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun made stunning remarks suggestive of a nonchalant embrace of the recalcitrant regime in Pyongyang. “The reactivation of the Yongbyon nuclear facility does not constitute a violation of the agreement between the two leaders.” How can we expect a reasonable strategy for denuclearization from such officials?
National Intelligence Service (NIS) chief Park Ji-won also took a very inappropriate action. As the press reported the tests by North Korea, he was busy answering questions from a number of media outlets about his potential involvement in attacking the opposition People Power Party (PPP) over former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl’s alleged role in helping the PPP file a complaint against pro-Moon figures with the prosecution. Does the spy chief really prioritize his support for the ruling Democratic Party (DP) ahead of the next presidential election over gathering intelligence on North Korea?
Park did not make any protest against the North’s missile launches last weekend. Despite the obvious need for the president to hold a National Security Council meeting to deal with the missile launches, his officials were engrossed with downplaying the provocation. “That is not a violation of UN Security Council resolutions,” they said. A government official even translated the absence of Kim Jong-un at the site of the missile test into his intention to resume dialogue with South Korea. Our biggest security risk comes from the government’s relaxed attitude toward Pyongyang. It must not forget that North Korea has not given up its ambition to become a nuclear power.
9. North Korea missile tests fly under the radars of South, U.S.
I think by definition what is the purpose of a cruise missile" to fly under the radar. :-)
Monday
September 13, 2021
North Korea missile tests fly under the radars of South, U.S.
Photos released on Monday by the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) show new cruise missiles being fired from a transporter erector launcher, left, and in flight during weekend tests. [KCNA]
North Korea tested new long-range cruise missiles over the weekend, its state media outlet said Monday morning as it claimed the tests were a success.
Calling the missiles "a strategic weapon of great significance," the reclusive regime's Korean Central New Agency (KCNA) said the missiles were tested on Saturday and Sunday and flew 1,500 kilometers (932 miles).
The tests come close on the heels of an overnight parade in Pyongyang on Thursday celebrating the 73rd anniversary of the country’s founding, which many observers at the time said was more toned-down and less militaristic in nature than preceding festivities, when the country often showcased its latest weapons.
However, the weekend cruise missile tests shattered the relative calm of the parade.
According to the KCNA, the new missiles travelled for 7,580 seconds along oval and pattern-8 flight orbits, hitting their intended targets within the country’s territorial waters.
The news agency's report made no secret of Pyongyang's target audience in conducting the tests — the United States and South Korea — as it described the missiles as a "core project" and "special interest" of the North's ruling Workers' Party.
“[The missiles] have special significance as it represents another effective deterrent to ensure the safety of our country and strongly suppress the anti-Republican military agitation,” the agency said.
Unlike the North’s cruise and short-range ballistic missile tests on March 21 and 25, when authorities detected the North’s tests but did not release the news for several days, both South Korean and U.S. military authorities were reportedly unaware of this past weekend’s tests before the KCNA’s report, according to a government official who spoke on Monday to the JoongAng Ilbo on the condition of anonymity.
“On this occasion, we not only failed to detect the tests before they happened, but also after,” the official said. “Both the government and military authorities are in shock over this intelligence failure."
The official added that neither South Korean nor U.S. military authorities are certain of the missiles’ trajectory or where exactly they fell into the sea.
Modern cruise missiles are harder to detect and intercept because they are often self-navigating and able to fly on extremely low-altitude trajectories compared to ballistic missiles.
Cruise missiles are also often equipped with sensors to evade interception and active radar homing seekers to guide them to their targets, greatly enhancing their precision.
However, under United Nations Security Council resolutions, North Korea is not explicitly banned from developing cruise missiles, unlike ballistic missiles.
If the North’s own reports on the tests are accurate, the cruise missiles fired over the weekend traveled at approximately 712 kilometers per hour. For comparison, modern ballistic missiles can travel up to twice the speed of sound (twice being 1,535 miles per hour) and can carry warheads with a higher payload than cruise missiles.
However, experts view the addition of cruise missiles to the North’s arsenal as a potentially lethal upgrade to its ability to neutralize South Korean defenses in the event of war.
In an interview with Voice of America (VOA) in March shortly after the North’s last cruise missile tests, Ian Williams, deputy director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the North could use cruise missiles to attack radars, such as air defense radars and missile defense radars, thereby blinding radar-dependent missile defense equipment, and then follow up with ballistic missiles.
“It's maybe not a violation of the UN Security Council resolutions, but cruise missiles offer a very different kind of aerial threat,” Williams said. “Having that dual capability of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles complicates defenses and it gives North Korea opportunities to be a little more surgical.”
Experts say that the fact the North released reports of the tests suggests that while it did not want its show of force to pass unnoticed, it also did not want to be subjected to stiffer sanctions by violating United Nations resolutions.
Talks concerning the North’s nuclear and ballistic missile program have stalled since 2019, when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump ended with no agreement between the two countries and no sanctions relief for the North.
Jin Hee-gwan, a professor of unification studies at Inje University, described the North’s recent moves, chiefly the toned-down parade and the cruise missile test, as the country “using guerilla-esque tactics to reassure and counterattack its opponents without crossing any red lines.”
News of the tests come a day before South Korean, Japanese and U.S. negotiators meet in Tokyo to explore ways of resolving the nuclear stalemate with the North.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also scheduled to arrive in Seoul on Tuesday for talks with his counterpart, Chung Eui-yong.
Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers’ Party, published photos of one of the new long-range cruise missiles at the moment it was fired from transporter erector launcher, a mobile launch vehicle.
Although Kim Jong-un was not mentioned in reports as being in attendance during the tests, the KCNA said that Pak Jong-chon, secretary of the party’s central committee and a member of the Politburo, oversaw the launches.
According to the KCNA, Pak said the North “must continue to achieve results necessary to possess a deterrent to war.” The North often refers to its ever-growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles as a “deterrent.”
The tests are Pyongyang’s first disclosed missile launches after the regime launched a series of cruise and tactical short-range ballistic missiles in March. The North also previously fired a cruise missile in January, only a few hours after U.S. President Joe Biden took office.
BY MICHAEL LEE, JEONG YONG-SOO [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
10. South Koreans sour on China ahead of Wang Yi visit
Maybe Wang Yi will learn that wolf diplomacy won't work in Korea. What country has invited Korea the most throughout history?
Excerpts:
Much of Korean history is characterized by the country facing incursions by more powerful neighbors, and some South Koreans fret over the possibility that China could seek to impose its will.
"Young South Koreans see that China is authoritarian and see how aggressive China has been against the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan," said Joseph Yi, a professor of political science at Hanyang University in Seoul.
"This leads to concerns that private Chinese companies are really acting as a front for their government, that they're starting by claiming Korean culture and will eventually evolve to claiming Korea politically. Because the Chinese government is nontransparent, no one can say that this is 100% untrue," Yi told Nikkei Asia.
For South Korea, a more pressing concern at this week's meeting will be encouraging China to use its influence over North Korea to spur a restart of the flashy diplomacy that took place early in Moon's term. Moon will leave office next year, and faces the possibility of his term expiring without having achieved any durable progress toward peace with North Korea.
"Moon's top priority is to reach some kind of breakthrough in terms of inter-Korean relations, as he wants to keep the legacy of all the exchanges that took place in 2018," Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, told Nikkei.
"Public opinion has changed lately, so Moon is not actively pursuing relations with China, but he is still eager to get China to use its influence with North Korea."
South Koreans sour on China ahead of Wang Yi visit
Growing anti-Beijing sentiment adds wrinkle to already complicated relationship
A man walks past a poster for the movie "Sacrifice," which is about China's entry into the Korean War to fight alongside North Korea against the U.S., in Beijing on October 22, 2020. © AFP/Jiji
STEVEN BOROWIEC, Contributing writerSeptember 13, 2021 12:00 JST | South Korea
SEOUL -- "The Sacrifice," a Chinese movie, takes place during one of the tensest phases of the Korean War, telling the story of Chinese soldiers working to repair a bridge while under fire from South Korean and U.S. troops.
The movie was a huge hit in China upon its 2020 release, but spurred a far different reaction this week ahead of its planned release on streaming platforms in South Korea. Politicians and netizens expressed anger that the movie was permitted for screening in the country, as it depicts a battle that resulted in thousands of South Korean casualties.
"Does any other country in the world screen movies that show its own military getting annihilated?" ruling party politician Kim Jin-tae asked on Facebook while accusing the film of "beautifying" the killing of South Korean soldiers. Kim called on the government to ban the film, while reiterating the conservative opposition's long-standing claim that the left-leaning administration of President Moon Jae-in has rolled over too easily for China, South Korea's largest trading partner.
On Sept. 8, Culture Minister Hwang Hee said during a session at the National Assembly that the film had been withdrawn and would not hit South Korean screens. Hwang did not specify whether the government or the film's distributors had pulled the plug, but alluded to growing anti-China sentiment in South Korea, particularly among young people.
This growing anti-China sentiment adds a wrinkle to an already complicated relationship, and could cloud meetings on Tuesday in Seoul between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his South Korean counterpart Chung Eui-yong. The two sides are set to discuss issues of shared concern, such as how to bring North Korea back to the table for denuclearization talks.
The furor over the movie follows other recent outbursts of negative feelings toward China. The construction of a massive facility catering to Chinese tourists was called off earlier this year amid public outcry, and "Joseon Exorcist," a television drama, was canceled after South Korean netizens objected to depictions of Korean historical items.
Survey results released in June by Sisain, a current affairs magazine, and pollster Hankook Research indicate a souring of South Korean public opinion toward China, particularly among the young. Only 26% of respondents had warm feelings toward China, compared with 57% who felt warmly toward the U.S. Even Japan, South Korea's traditional rival, came out ahead of China with 28%.
"Dislike of China is arguably emerging as the spirit of our times," Sisain wrote in an accompanying article. "The question 'what kind of country is China to us?' is changing to 'why and how much do we dislike China?"
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, left, will meet South Korean counterpart Chung Eui-yong in Seoul on Tuesday. (File photos by Reuters and Getty Images)
Trepidation toward China, unlike feelings about Japan or the U.S., did not correlate with conservative or progressive political orientation. However, the poll results vary markedly according to age, with only 15% of respondents in their 20s feeling positively toward China, compared with 31% of those in their 60s and older.
As reasons for their discontent, respondents pointed to worsening air pollution in the country which many South Koreans blame on poorly regulated carbon-emitting factories in China, Beijing's slow response in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, and illegal fishing by Chinese vessels in South Korean waters.
China appears keen to bring South Korea, a U.S. ally, further into its sphere of influence, while the Moon administration has attempted to balance relations with Beijing and Washington through an approach dubbed "strategic ambiguity," meaning Seoul has been careful to not appear to decisively take the side of one superpower over the other.
Much of Korean history is characterized by the country facing incursions by more powerful neighbors, and some South Koreans fret over the possibility that China could seek to impose its will.
"Young South Koreans see that China is authoritarian and see how aggressive China has been against the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan," said Joseph Yi, a professor of political science at Hanyang University in Seoul.
"This leads to concerns that private Chinese companies are really acting as a front for their government, that they're starting by claiming Korean culture and will eventually evolve to claiming Korea politically. Because the Chinese government is nontransparent, no one can say that this is 100% untrue," Yi told Nikkei Asia.
For South Korea, a more pressing concern at this week's meeting will be encouraging China to use its influence over North Korea to spur a restart of the flashy diplomacy that took place early in Moon's term. Moon will leave office next year, and faces the possibility of his term expiring without having achieved any durable progress toward peace with North Korea.
"Moon's top priority is to reach some kind of breakthrough in terms of inter-Korean relations, as he wants to keep the legacy of all the exchanges that took place in 2018," Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, told Nikkei.
"Public opinion has changed lately, so Moon is not actively pursuing relations with China, but he is still eager to get China to use its influence with North Korea."
11. A New Look at Biden’s North Korea Strategy
Thankfully the author does not take this to the "logical" conclusion - that the administration should offer concessions/sanctions relief in order to kick-start diplomacy. (though he was bordering on doing so and implying it). That of course would be a major strategic error. It wouldlead Kim to assess his poliitcal warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy work and then he will double down employing them both.
A New Look at Biden’s North Korea Strategy
The recent missile launch is likely to affect the Biden Administration’s approach to North Korea policy.
Over the weekend, North Korea conducted a successful test of long-range cruise missiles, the regime announced through state media.
“The development of the long-range cruise missile, a strategic weapon of great significance . . . has been pushed forward according to the scientific and reliable weapon system development process for the past two years,” the Korean Central News Agency said, per Yonhap News Agency.
“Detailed tests of missile parts, scores of engine ground thrust tests, various flight tests, control and guidance tests, warhead power tests, etc. were conducted with success,” the news agency added.
Among other considerations, the launch is likely to affect the Biden Administration’s approach to North Korea policy. Just before the launch, Voice of America quoted some experts who were questioning the current administration’s approach to North Korea.
Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at CNA, told VOA that he sees the Biden administration returning to “strategic patience,” which was the North Korea policy for much of the Obama presidency, at least after the deal to disable the Yongbon reactor fell apart in 2012.
“After that fell through, they really didn't try to go back to the negotiating table,” Gause told VOA. “The Biden administration is made up of a lot of people that served in those administrations, and probably, their latitude for trying new things with North Korea is probably somewhat limited.”
Scott Snyder, director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, had a different view, also speaking to VOA.
“The Biden administration, in contrast to the Obama administration, [has] expressed public concern about North Korea's nuclear development and recognized that it cannot be kicked down the road too far,” Snyder told VOA. He also told the news organization that the current turmoil in North Korea, including reports of food shortages, are likely to complicate attempts at diplomacy by the United States.
The State Department says it is continuing to pursue diplomacy in North Korea. During the Trump administration, President Donald Trump met multiple times with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but those meetings did not result in any kind of deal.
“When it comes to the United States, our goal continues to be the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price told VOA. “We are prepared to engage in diplomacy toward that objective.”
Trump, in his virtual speech over the weekend to the Unification Church, addressed his diplomatic opening to North Korea.
“And as many of you will remember, the rhetoric got very, very tough and nasty and mean,” Trump said in the virtual address to the “Rally of Hope” on Saturday, per Business Insider.
Stephen Silver, a technology writer for the National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
Image: Reuters
12. In Signal to the US, North Korea Tests New Long-Range Cruise Missiles
Is it a signal? Is everything north Korea intended as a singla to us? What if this was simply a test required to advance the program? This was a necessary test to confirm capabilities and move to the next phase of development.
Then again, if we take a broad look at all the actions and rhetoric since the Biden administration took office it is very likely this is a continued effort by the north to shape the information environment and drive the Biden administration of making concessions in the form of sanctions relief to jump start the negotiating process.
What was so unusual about the September 9th parade? It seems to be in line with past parades where the regime did not show off strategic weapons and advanced military equipment. Just because we saw such equipment last October and. January does not mean they would continue to copy the past events.
Excerpts:
However, as North Korea has not violated the “red lines” of the United States, there is little likelihood of the U.S. redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to the South’s territory for the time being, even as North Korea continues to develop more advanced missiles.
“The cruise missile launch does not constitute a serious military provocation, which usually indicates ICBM [intercontinental-range ballistic missile] or nuclear tests,” said Kim Young-jun, a professor of Korea National Defense University and a member of the National Security Advisory Board for the Presidential Blue House, in an interview with The Diplomat.
Kim also said that such a missile launch could take place again but predicted that the North would not make significant military provocations between now and early 2022, when China will be looking to host a successful Olympics.
“North Korea is likely expected to accept the prolonged ‘cold peace’ for a while as it is banned from participating in the Beijing Winter Olympics,” Kim said.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is going to visit Seoul on Wednesday and will meet with his South Korean counterpart, Chung Eui-yong. Also, the special envoys of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan on North Korea are going to gather in Tokyo on Tuesday to reaffirm trilateral cooperation on North Korea issues. As bilateral negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled, it is time for neighboring countries to reactivate multilateral cooperation, including four-party talks or six-party talks, to settle a permanent détente on the Korean Peninsula.
In Signal to the US, North Korea Tests New Long-Range Cruise Missiles
North Korea test-launched newly developed long-range cruise missiles over the weekend, just after an unusual military parade.
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North Korea successfully test-launched newly developed long-range cruise missiles over the weekend, according to Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the country’s state-controlled media. The test is an indication that last week’s unusual military parade – during which no new weapons were displayed – does not imply any change in Pyongyang’s hardline stance on negotiations with the United States and South Korea.
KCNA said that the missiles flew 1,500 km for 7,580 seconds (roughly 2 hours and 6 minutes) and hit their intended targets. If true, it means that South Korea and Japan can be easily targeted with the new North Korean cruise missiles.
“The development of the long-range cruise missiles, a strategic weapon, which is of great significance in attaining the main goal of the five-year plan for the development of national defense science and weapons system presented at the Eighth Party Congress, has been promoted according to the scientific and reliable weapon system development process over the past two years,” KCNA said.
KCNA also said that the development of the weapon system is of strategic significance as it is another effective deterrent ensuring the security of North Korea and overpowering the anti-North Korea military moves of so-called hostile forces. The eye-catching point of the test is that it was the North’s first test of long-range cruise missiles that could be “nuclear-capable,” according to the KCNA report.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and the U.S. military confirmed the test but did not mention whether or not they detected it in advance. Considering both countries were accused of failing to detect the cruise missile launch in March, experts say they might have failed to detect the launch again. It is highly unlikely that existing air defense systems would detect cruise missiles, which are self-propelled, allowing them to fly at lower altitudes and along a straighter path than ballistic missiles.
KCNA claimed that the test successfully proved the effectiveness and practicality of the new weapon system, as the test missiles hit the targets. However, the news report did not mention where the missiles were launched nor what the targets were. The detailed specification of the missiles involved have not been confirmed. Regardless of the lack of information on the North’s newly developed cruise missiles, it is the North certainly has the capability to develop such missiles – and a successful test means Pyongyang can evade the U.S. and South Korea’s current air defense systems.
Mason Richey, a professor of International and Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, told The Diplomat that the North’s newly developed cruise missile is likely capable of carrying a nuclear as well as a conventional warhead.
“Cruise missiles like this one fly low to evade detection by radar and other sensors, which thus provides a greater probability of evading missile defense. It would be therefore be another tool in Pyongyang’s toolkit for putting pressure on combined U.S.-ROK deterrence,” Richey said.
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The North test-fired cruise missiles on Saturday and Sunday, when Americans were marking the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks – one of the worst tragedies in U.S. history. It’s notable that North Korea didn’t introduce its new weapons in the military parade on Thursday but chose to wait until September 11. Given that timing, this launch was arguably aimed purely at showing North Korea’s intention and motivation toward negotiations with the United States.
“North Korea prefers to enter negotiations from a position of leverage, so having this additional capability in the background of any overture to talks would, in Pyongyang’s likely perception, give it greater strength and allow it to drive a harder bargain,” Richey said.
It is also notable that the North test-launched cruise missiles, which are not covered by U.N. sanctions on the country and thus tend to provoke a less urgent response than ballistic missile tests.
North Korea has made clear that it will never come back to the negotiating table unless the U.S. makes concessions, including removing “unclear” hostile policies. Even though Sung Kim, the U.S. special envoy on North Korea, has consistently mentioned that he will be willing to sit down with his North Korean counterparts anytime, anywhere, with no preconditions, Pyongyang has been adamant in rejecting every message from Washington and Seoul since the failed Hanoi Summit in 2019.
The failed round of summit diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang stalled inter-Korean dialogues as well, and that changed perceptions among South Koreans over the way to negotiate with North Korea. Unlike President Moon Jae-in’s Korea Peace Initiative, which shuns military coercion, South Korean analysts have started seriously considering the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to Korean soil as an effective bargaining chip for denuclearization.
According to a poll by Asan Institute for Policy Studies, an independent think tank based in South Korea, nearly 70 percent of respondents supported developing an indigenous nuclear capability, while 61 percent supported reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons.
The South Korean government has a long-pending plan to take wartime operational control (currently held by U.S. Forces Korea) and develop more advanced weapons. But a growing number of South Koreans believe national security against the North’s nuclear weapons can only be guaranteed through the reintroduction of tactical nuclear weapons, even though the U.S. has been providing invisible “nuclear umbrella” since withdrawing its nuclear missiles from South Korean in 1991. There is increasing skepticism that economic sanctions alone can be a powerful bargaining chip when the North has nuclear weapons and the South does not.
However, as North Korea has not violated the “red lines” of the United States, there is little likelihood of the U.S. redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to the South’s territory for the time being, even as North Korea continues to develop more advanced missiles.
“The cruise missile launch does not constitute a serious military provocation, which usually indicates ICBM [intercontinental-range ballistic missile] or nuclear tests,” said Kim Young-jun, a professor of Korea National Defense University and a member of the National Security Advisory Board for the Presidential Blue House, in an interview with The Diplomat.
Kim also said that such a missile launch could take place again but predicted that the North would not make significant military provocations between now and early 2022, when China will be looking to host a successful Olympics.
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“North Korea is likely expected to accept the prolonged ‘cold peace’ for a while as it is banned from participating in the Beijing Winter Olympics,” Kim said.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is going to visit Seoul on Wednesday and will meet with his South Korean counterpart, Chung Eui-yong. Also, the special envoys of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan on North Korea are going to gather in Tokyo on Tuesday to reaffirm trilateral cooperation on North Korea issues. As bilateral negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled, it is time for neighboring countries to reactivate multilateral cooperation, including four-party talks or six-party talks, to settle a permanent détente on the Korean Peninsula.
13. North Korea Tests New Long-Range Cruise Missile: What You Should Know
Excerpts:
North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and conventional forces are a formidable threat to the United States and its allies in northeast Asia. Pyongyang’s history of provocation and intimidation is a consistent indicator of the regime’s intent to achieve its political objectives through the threat or execution of force.
The Biden administration should continue diplomatic efforts at a negotiated reduction of the North Korean nuclear and missile threats. However, the United States and its allies should concurrently implement measures to enhance their deterrence and defense capabilities. Diplomacy and deterrence are not mutually exclusive.
To reassure its allies, the United States should reaffirm its extended deterrence guarantee to use all necessary force, including nuclear weapons, in response to a North Korean attack. Washington should also pledge to maintain current levels of U.S. forces in the region until the North Korean nuclear, missile, and conventional force threats have been sufficiently reduced.
North Korea has so far refrained from the large-scale provocations it historically did in the first year of a new U.S. or South Korean administration. But it appears only a matter of time before Pyongyang conducts another ICBM launch or nuclear test. Either would severely test U.S. leadership in the region.
North Korea Tests New Long-Range Cruise Missile: What You Should Know
The new cruise missile has the range to threaten Japan and would augment North Korea’s ballistic missile arsenal intended to intimidate Tokyo from assisting the United States during a Korean conflict. The missile could also be used against South Korean targets or potentially U.S. naval forces near the Korean Peninsula.
The cruise missile launches are not technically a violation of UN resolutions, which only preclude ballistic missile tests. But they will nonetheless pose a challenge to the Biden administration as it seeks to curtail North Korea’s nuclear and missile growing threats. To date, Pyongyang has rejected all efforts at dialogue or negotiations. Washington should coordinate with Seoul and Tokyo to improve comprehensive allied missile defenses, and to ensure sufficient offensive capabilities to reduce the number of North Korean missiles that are launched.
The Cruise Missile Challenge
North Korean official media declared that the cruise missile flew on a figure-eight pattern to a range of 1500 km (930 miles) and is a “strategic weapon” — usually a reference to being nuclear-capable. The missile had been in development for two years, including “dozens of static firing tests of motor, different flight tests, controlling and guiding test and warhead destructive tests.” South Korea previously announced North Korea conducted cruise missile tests in March 2021, July 2020 and April 2020, which may have been related to the new cruise missile.
Cruise missiles fly lower than ballistic missiles to evade missile-defense radars. Pyongyang has also recently developed short-range ballistic missiles that are maneuverable during flight to evade missile-defense interceptors.
North Korea’s Missiles: An Evolving Threat
After assuming power in 2011, Kim Jong-un oversaw an expansive diversification of North Korea’s arsenal and accelerated nuclear and missile testing. Pyongyang expanded and refined manufacturing facilities for fissile material, nuclear weapons, missiles, mobile missile launchers, and reentry vehicles. New weapons overcame the shortcomings of their predecessors and now pose a far greater threat to allied forces, including missile-defense systems.
After North Korean successfully tested ICBMs and a hydrogen bomb in 2017, Kim Jong-un directed his military to mass-produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles. In 2019, the regime unveiled five new missile systems as it conducted 26 missile launches, a new annual record — all of which were violations of UN resolutions.
During its October 2020 and January 2021 parades, North Korea revealed yet more missiles systems, including a massive ICBM with multiple nuclear warheads and several versions of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
In January 2021, Kim Jong-un announced North Korea had developed an intermediate-range cruise missile “whose conventional warheads are the most powerful in the world” and charged his scientists to make nuclear weapons smaller and lighter. Kim also called for developing hypersonic gliding flight warheads, a nuclear-powered submarine and an underwater-launch nuclear strategic weapon.
Just last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency assessed that North Korea resumed operations at its Yongbyon reactor, which produces plutonium for nuclear weapons. Pyongyang also may have reprocessed nuclear fuel from previous reactor operations. In 2017, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that North Korea had between 30 and 60 nuclear weapons (or weapons’ worth of fissile material) and could annually produce an additional seven to 12 weapons. While the Yongbyon reactor was offline during 2019-21, production would have decreased; however, resumed reactor operations will presumably return nuclear production to 2017-2018 levels.
How To Respond?
North Korea’s development of additional means to threaten Japan could invigorate debate about whether Tokyo should augment its defenses by acquiring the ability to conduct an attack against targets in an opponent’s country. The issue had languished after the resignation last year of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had been a proponent of Japan expanding its security role in the Indo-Pacific. Abe’s successor Yoshihide Suga deferred a decision on Japan developing strike capabilities, but the issue could arise during the forthcoming prime minister elections.
North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and conventional forces are a formidable threat to the United States and its allies in northeast Asia. Pyongyang’s history of provocation and intimidation is a consistent indicator of the regime’s intent to achieve its political objectives through the threat or execution of force.
The Biden administration should continue diplomatic efforts at a negotiated reduction of the North Korean nuclear and missile threats. However, the United States and its allies should concurrently implement measures to enhance their deterrence and defense capabilities. Diplomacy and deterrence are not mutually exclusive.
To reassure its allies, the United States should reaffirm its extended deterrence guarantee to use all necessary force, including nuclear weapons, in response to a North Korean attack. Washington should also pledge to maintain current levels of U.S. forces in the region until the North Korean nuclear, missile, and conventional force threats have been sufficiently reduced.
North Korea has so far refrained from the large-scale provocations it historically did in the first year of a new U.S. or South Korean administration. But it appears only a matter of time before Pyongyang conducts another ICBM launch or nuclear test. Either would severely test U.S. leadership in the region.
A former CIA deputy division chief for Korea, Bruce Klingner is a senior research fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.
14. N.K. calls for speedy recovery efforts in flood-hit eastern regions
Is the flooding the result of the regime's poor agricultural and technology policies that has left areas vulnerable to flooding and its effects?
Excerpt:
Earlier this week, the paper also criticized officials in the flood-hit Hamgyong Province for carrying out flood prevention projects along rivers and streams in an irresponsible manner.
State media earlier reported about 1,170 homes were destroyed or flooded, and some 5,000 residents were evacuated due to heavy rainfall in South Hamgyong Province. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered full support for recovery efforts in the province.
The North's eastern provinces were also hit hard by typhoons and flooding last year, further aggravating the country's serious food shortage.
N.K. calls for speedy recovery efforts in flood-hit eastern regions | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korea called on officials to finish recovery efforts at a flood-hit eastern province before the founding anniversary of the Workers' Party next month as it held an enlarged meeting of the provincial military commission, state media reported Tuesday.
The South Hamgyong Provincial Military Commission of the Workers' Party met on Sunday to inspect the progress of recovery efforts and discussed measures to "ensure the high quality and speed of construction," the Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the North's ruling party, said.
The commission called on officials to finish the recovery work by the Oct. 10 founding anniversary of the party while strictly following construction regulations in rebuilding houses, bridges and roads.
Earlier this week, the paper also criticized officials in the flood-hit Hamgyong Province for carrying out flood prevention projects along rivers and streams in an irresponsible manner.
State media earlier reported about 1,170 homes were destroyed or flooded, and some 5,000 residents were evacuated due to heavy rainfall in South Hamgyong Province. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered full support for recovery efforts in the province.
The North's eastern provinces were also hit hard by typhoons and flooding last year, further aggravating the country's serious food shortage.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
15. North Korea Tests First Cruise Missiles Capable of Hitting Japan
My comments, among others, are below.
North Korea Tests First Cruise Missiles Capable of Hitting Japan
The new missiles could deliver a nuclear payload if Pyongyang can make smaller warheads, experts say.
North Korea “successfully tested” new long-range cruise missiles over the weekend, state media reported Monday, its first low-flying missiles capable of hitting targets in Japan.
Pyongyang has tested numerous ballistic missile systems in the past, but the new cruise missiles are much smaller and harder to defend against, analysts told RFA.
“The launched long-range cruise missiles traveled for 7,580 seconds [two hours, six minutes, 20 seconds] along an oval and pattern-8 flight orbits in the air above the territorial land and waters of the DPRK and hit targets 1,500 kilometers [932 miles] away,” the state-run Korea Central News Agency Reported.
“The 1,500-km range means that it can hit the entire Korean Peninsula and even U.S. military bases in Japan,” Jeong Chang-wook, head of the South-Korea based Korea Defense Research Forum, told RFA’s Korean Service Monday.
“If there is a move to reinforce the Korean Peninsula, it can be seen that North Korea can strike U.S. bases in Japan without hesitation,” Jeong said.
But it remains unclear if North Korea is capable of building smaller nuclear warheads that could be mounted on the new missiles.
“That turns on miniaturization and the miniaturization question turns on whether or not North Korea is actually able to create H-bombs, fusion weapons,” Bruce Bennett, a researcher at the California-based RAND Corporation think tank, told RFA’s Korean Service Monday.
“And so, the question is, can they physically create a nuclear weapon that is small enough to go on this weapon, on this cruise missile, both in terms of the size of the nuclear weapon and its weight?” Bennet said.
David Maxwell of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told RFA that North Korea might lack the technological skill to miniaturize its nuclear payloads, but said the new missiles appeared to be a “capable system.”
“This is a low flying cruise missile perhaps similar to a U.S. tomahawk missile, but I have to wait for the intelligence analysis to be sure,” Maxwell said.
“THAAD and Patriot PAC 3 missiles cannot defend against it since it is very low flying. It can be shot down by aircraft and other short range air defense weapons,” he said.
Credit: RFA
The news about the tests came a day before the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are scheduled to meet in Tokyo to discuss strategies to overcome stalled denuclearization negotiations with Pyongyang.
The analysts were divided on the effects that the tests might have future negotiations.
“This launch doesn’t help nuclear talks, but the ball is in the U.S. court in how it wants to handle this,” Ken Gause of the Virginia-based CNA thinktank said.
“If it decides to punish North Korea, it will show that the lines set down by the Trump administration have changed and it will set back talks,” he said.
Robert Einhorn, a former U.S. Department of State special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, told RFA that the test would not derail efforts to bring Pyongyang to the negotiating table.
“The main reason for the test was North Korea’s desire to diversify and expand the nuclear and missile threat it poses to its neighbors. In addition to its ballistic missile capabilities, it now has tested a cruise missile that can reach much of Japan,” Einhorn said.
The RAND Corporation’s Soo Kim told RFA that the tests were a display of new weapons capabilities that would get the attention of the U.S.
“We’re seeing [North Korea’s] “portfolio” becoming fuller and more diverse. It’s unclear whether North Korea had intended for this, but the missile test basically allows North Korea to keep pressing its finger into our sides and reminds us of its growing nuclear and missile threat,” she said.
The tests follow a “well-established pattern where Kim increases the pressure on Biden to engage and accept a limited nuclear deal,” said Anthony Ruggiero, former deputy assistant to the President for National Security Affairs.
“The Biden administration should respond with issuing the first North Korea sanctions of his presidency to address Kim’s continued development of these programs,” he said.
North Korea may strategically engage in provocations following this test, Kim Hyung-wook of the South-Korea-based Korean National Diplomatic Academy told RFA.
“North Korea continues to develop medium-range and long-range strategic weapons. There is also a demand to keep testing,” said Kim Hyung-wook.
“North Korea will try to choose a point in time to align this with its foreign strategy, which must be done at some point in the timetable for weapons development,” he said.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command released a statement Monday saying the tests highlighted North Korea’s “continuing focus on developing its military program and the threats that poses to its neighbors and the international community,” and reaffirmed Washington’s defense commitments to Seoul and Tokyo.
A spokesperson for the EU, meanwhile told RFA that the missile launches went against “international efforts and willingness to resume dialogue and engage in actions to help the people of that country.”
“We call on the DPRK to respond constructively to the readiness for diplomacy expressed by the United States and the Republic of Korea and engage in a sustained diplomatic process aimed at building trust,” the spokesperson said.
Maxwell criticized North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for testing missiles while blaming the country’s worsening economic situation and food shortages on external factors like international nuclear sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic.
“It is Kim's deliberate decision making to prioritize his nuclear and missile programs and military modernization over the welfare of the people… The bottom line is Kim is the biggest cause of his own problem and he is solely responsible for the suffering of the Korean people,” Maxwell said.
North Korea’s cruise missile tests came less than a week after South Korea became the first non-nuclear power to successfully test a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Korean War hostilities ended in a 1953 armistice agreement, but the two Koreas remain technically at war as no peace treaty has ever been signed.
Reported by Soyoung Kim, Albert Hong, Sangmin Lee, Do Hyung Han and Yong Jae Mok for RFA’s Korean Service. Translated by Leejin Jun and Jinha Shin. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
16. North Korea capable of arming 'strategic' missile with nuclear warhead to 'surprise' Japan
Should not be a surprise anymore!
North Korea capable of arming 'strategic' missile with nuclear warhead to 'surprise' Japan
Express · by Tim McNulty · September 13, 2021
North Korea: Expert discusses 'new strategic weapon'
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North Korea has announced the capability to "confound" air defences of South Korea and Japan with a new cruise missile, South Asia Times correspondent Andrew Salmon has warned. He stressed how Kim Jong-un's regime may opt to install small nuclear warheads on the new weapons systems in a move that would spark an "extraordinary new problem" for military commanders in Tokyo and Seoul.
Mr Salmon told France 24: "The point is this was not a ballistic missile which is the kind of long-range missile that goes up and comes down in a parabella.
"And that kind of missile is banned by the UN; North Korea is not allowed to own or test those kinds of missiles.
"This was a cruise missile which is generally a short-range missile, moves on a flat trajectory and is normally used against tactical targets, and North Korea is not banned form owning or testing this type of missile.
"However, in-state media North Korea made clear that this is a new strategic weapon which raises the possibility that North Korea could mount a small nuclear warhead on this kind of small tactical missile."
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (Image: Getty)
"And, if that is the case, it will present an extraordinary new problem that can feasibly confound the air defence planners in both Japan and South Korea.
"We have also heard from an unconfirmed media source in Seoul today that these missile tests, which were launched in North Korea on Saturday and Sunday, were not picked up by either American or South Korean detection devices."
In response to the development in North Korean missile technology, the commander of US Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), said: "I'm ready 24/7, 365 (days).
“If North Korea decides to launch a ballistic missile, I'm confident in our capabilities.
China and US relationship has 'frozen' with 'distrust' says expert
"For NORAD that's threat warning and attack assessment.
"For NORTHCOM, ballistic missile defense capability."
He added: "We continue to be ready to respond should North Korea elect to launch a missile."
It is believed the launch was witnessed by top scientists and regime officials from the Worker's Party of Korea.
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"The launched long-range cruise missiles flew 7,580 seconds along the elliptical and figure-eight flight trajectories set over the territory and territorial waters of our country, and hit the target at 1,500 km of the mooring line," said the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
US officials are reportedly coordinating with their counterparts in Japan and South Korea to minimize the new threat.
The US military's Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) has said it is aware of the reports.
INDOPACOM said in a statement: “This activity highlights (North Korea's) continuing focus on developing its military program and the threats that poses to its neighbours and the international community
Express · by Tim McNulty · September 13, 2021
17.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
