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Quotes of the Day:
"Only the guy who isn't rowing has time to rock the boat."
- Jean-Paul Sartre
"Balance your thoughts with action. — If you spend too much time thinking about a thing, you'll never get it done."
- Bruce Lee
"The one who tells the stories rules the world."
- Hopi Proverb
1. Kim invites Putin to N. Korea; Putin accepts: state media
2. N. Korean leader's train apparently en route to Russia's Khabarovsk after summit with Putin
3. Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin Meet at Russia’s Main Spaceport
4. S. Korea closely monitoring possible joint military drills between N. Korea, Russia
5. Kim-Putin summit highlights strategic push to expand cooperation
6. Unification minister voices 'deep' concerns about possible N. Korea-Russia arms deal
7. South Korea cleared to buy $5B worth of F-35s - Breaking Defense
8. History Turns Upside Down in a War Where the Koreas Are Suppliers
9. Analysis | Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia hints at grim battlefield math for Putin
10.The Grim Endgame of Putin and Kim Jong Un’s New Lovefest
11. Putin Hints at Satellite Technology Support for N.Korea
12. Russia Must Pay the Price If It Sells Arms Technology to N.Korea
13. N. Korean consumer of S. Korean film bribes his way out of punishment
14. Putin 'gratefully accepted' Kim's invitation to visit North Korea: Kremlin
15. Russia and N. Korea make bold announcement to ignore UN sanctions
16. [ANALYSIS] Kim-Putin summit signals 'new normal' of N. Korea-Russia relations
17. [INTERVIEW] Seoul should play delicate balancing act in diplomacy with China, Russia as new Cold War dawns
18. PacNet #72 - How to build US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation on Taiwan - Pacific Forum
1. Kim invites Putin to N. Korea; Putin accepts: state media
As I look at all the events and statements taking place around this it seems as if either Kim or Putin (or both) want to compete with the Yoon Biden State visit in April or the Camp David Summit. It seems like everything Kim is doing looks like an attempt to mirror the ROK./US alliance diplomatically and militarily (note the recent north Korea command post exercise that could be described as the north's attempt to imitate Ulchi Freedom Shield). Perhaps Kim thinks this gives him legitimacy or that he can say if the ROK and US are doing something I can do that too.
(2nd LD) Kim invites Putin to N. Korea; Putin accepts: state media | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 14, 2023
(ATTN: RECASTS lead, headline; UPDATES with more details throughout; REPLACES, ADDS photo)
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit his country during their summit at Russia's spaceport, and Putin accepted the offer, Pyongyang's state media reported Thursday, as the two isolated countries seek to bolster ties.
Kim made the invitation at an official dinner with Putin on Wednesday after their summit at the Vostochny space center in Russia's Amur region, the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, in their first meeting in over four years.
"At the end of the reception, Kim Jong Un courteously invited Putin to visit the DPRK at a convenient time," the KCNA reported in an English dispatch. "Putin accepted the invitation with pleasure and reaffirmed his will to invariably carry forward the history and tradition of the Russia-DPRK friendship."
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) holds a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny space center in Russia's Amur region on Sept. 13, 2023, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The summit came as Pyongyang has recently been seeking to bolster military ties with Moscow and doubling down on its weapons development amid growing security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan.
During the meeting, Kim said his latest trip to Russia marks a "significant" occasion to raise cooperative bilateral ties to a higher level, according to the KCNA.
"It is the consistent stand of the DPRK government to attach utmost importance to the DPRK-Russia relations and invariably develop the tradition of deep-rooted friendship," Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA.
The KCNA said the two sides discussed strengthening cooperation "on the common front to frustrate the imperialists' military threat and provocation," although it did not specify the discussion's details.
"They discussed with open mind the important issues and the immediate cooperation matters arising in defending the sovereignty and development and interests of the two countries," it said.
The talks were also joined by North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam, Pak Jong-chon, a top military official, and others, according to the KCNA.
During the dinner reception, Putin noted that bilateral relations are invariably oriented to comradely and good neighborly relations as ever, the KCNA reported.
In response, Kim expressed his will to work for a "far-reaching" plan for bilateral ties with Putin, and "to dynamically promote the powerful nation-building cause in the two countries and realize genuine international justice," it said.
The KCNA added that Kim left for his next destination, without providing details. Putin earlier announced that Kim will travel to Komsomolsk-on-Amur and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East after the summit.
It marked Kim's first meeting with Putin since his visit to Vladivostok in April 2019.
South Korean and U.S. officials have expressed concerns over the meeting and a possible arms deal between the two countries that could assist Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) tours the Vostochny space center in Russia's Amur region on Sept. 13, 2023, with Russian President Vladimir Putin (R), in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 14, 2023
2. N. Korean leader's train apparently en route to Russia's Khabarovsk after summit with Putin
I think Kim and Putin are providing us with "visuals" of the type of support Putin will provide Kim in return for Kim's support for Putin's War in Ukraine: We have seen them at the spaceport, now aviation support at the Sukhoi factory, and the naval support in Vladivostok. Now we can speculate what kind of technology and arms will Kim receive for the space, air, and maritime domains. And the question is what do they not want us to know about while they are apparently telegraphing these areas?
N. Korean leader's train apparently en route to Russia's Khabarovsk after summit with Putin | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · September 14, 2023
VLADIVOSTOK, Russia, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's special train appears to be moving toward Russia's Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk on Thursday, a day after his rare summit with President Vladimir Putin, according to sources.
According to the sources, Kim's olive green, bullet-proof train appears headed toward the Russian city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, where he will visit an aircraft factory, following his meeting with Putin held Wednesday at the Vostochny spaceport where he pledged full support for Russia.
Putin earlier told a Russian media outlet that Kim will fly to Komsomolsk-on-Amur to visit an aircraft plant and travel to Vladivostok to view Russia's Pacific Fleet after the summit.
But Kim appears to have taken his train to Komsomolsk-on-Amur, some 1,170 kilometers east of the space center.
Kim is expected to arrive in the Russian city late Thursday and stop by an aircraft plant that manufactures Sukhoi fighter jets the following day, according to the sources.
Wednesday's summit marked Kim's first meeting with Putin since his visit to Vladivostok in April 2019.
South Korean and U.S. officials have expressed concerns over the meeting and a possible arms deal between the two countries that could assist Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (rear) boards his special train after holding a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East on Sept. 13, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Kim invited Putin to visit his country. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · September 14, 2023
3. Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin Meet at Russia’s Main Spaceport
Excerpts:
That has converged the worldviews of Kim and Putin as they confront a similar set of challenges: Weakened economies, international sanctions and strengthened U.S. alliances. The summit also gives each leader an opportunity to show that powerful allies remain on their side.
But the get-together could deliver more than just diplomatic showmanship. The U.S. and its allies have warned the meeting could advance an arms sale between the two countries, with North Korea offering ammunition to help restock Russia’s supplies and extend the Ukraine war.
The West had thought Russia might be able to produce about one million artillery shells a year. But now, the assessment is that Russia is on a path over the next couple of years to produce two million artillery shells annually, according to a Western official. To put that in perspective, the official said, Russia fired 10 million to 11 million shells last year and was sometimes using shells that were out of date and prone to malfunction.
To sustain the war, Russia has boosted defense spending by some 30%, which has had a distorting effect on its economy by forcing cutbacks elsewhere and prompting an increase in interest rates, the official said.
Some current and former U.S. officials played down the impact of Wednesday’s summit.
“It shows how desperate Russia is that they are engaged with the DPRK,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Wednesday, referring to the initials for North Korea.
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin Meet at Russia’s Main Spaceport
Vostochny Cosmodrome hosts summit between two autocrats who pledge friendship and deeper military relations
https://www.wsj.com/world/kim-jong-un-and-vladimir-putin-meet-at-russias-vostochny-cosmodrome-91529be9?page=1
By Dasl Yoon
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Updated Sept. 13, 2023 2:28 pm ET
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North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un met with President Vladimir Putin at Russia’s main spaceport on Wednesday. Putin offered to help North Korea build satellites, while Kim expressed his full support for Russia and vowed to stand by the country’s side. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/AFP/Getty Images. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/AFP/Getty Images
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un flaunted their burgeoning friendship at a summit, displaying a partnership between the leaders that unnerves the West over concerns that North Korea will provide munitions to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Meeting Wednesday at Russia’s main spaceport, the two autocrats vowed greater cooperation on economic and security issues—and took aim at the U.S.-led global order. Putin promised assistance on North Korea’s satellite endeavors. Kim pledged an unbreakable bond with Moscow.
Without mentioning any adversaries by name, Kim declared confidence in Putin’s ability to win the Ukraine war and create a stable environment for development, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. The North Korean leader described the 19-month war between Russia and Ukraine as the “sacred struggle to punish the gathering of evil that claims hegemony and nourishes expansionist illusions.”
The exchange occurred at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, located in Russia’s Far East and reachable to Kim by train. Kim and Putin strolled around the space facility, with Russian officials explaining how the country’s rockets get launched. Delegations from both countries met ahead of a one-on-one summit between Kim and Putin, their second time meeting in-person. But the talks led to no signed agreements.
Putin said he had a “frank exchange” with Kim, including talks on Russian assistance with agricultural development in North Korea, according to Russian state media. He said Kim plans to travel elsewhere in the surrounding region, visiting the Russian Academy of Sciences and factories producing jet fighters in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.
Kim, taking his first international trip in more than four years, needed multiple days aboard his luxurious, bulletproof train to reach the Amur Oblast region where the cosmodrome is located. Putin has used the space center for high-profile diplomacy before, including an April 2022 visit by the Belarusian leader. Moscow conducted its failed moon-landing launch from the same site last month.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Vostochny Cosmodrome. PHOTO: VLADIMIR SMIRNOV/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
For Moscow and Pyongyang, the summit offers a rare moment to display unapologetic friendship. The pair of autocrats have drawn closer following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and North Korea’s return to long-range missile testing—rogue behavior that has left both countries more isolated and ostracized.
That has converged the worldviews of Kim and Putin as they confront a similar set of challenges: Weakened economies, international sanctions and strengthened U.S. alliances. The summit also gives each leader an opportunity to show that powerful allies remain on their side.
But the get-together could deliver more than just diplomatic showmanship. The U.S. and its allies have warned the meeting could advance an arms sale between the two countries, with North Korea offering ammunition to help restock Russia’s supplies and extend the Ukraine war.
The West had thought Russia might be able to produce about one million artillery shells a year. But now, the assessment is that Russia is on a path over the next couple of years to produce two million artillery shells annually, according to a Western official. To put that in perspective, the official said, Russia fired 10 million to 11 million shells last year and was sometimes using shells that were out of date and prone to malfunction.
To sustain the war, Russia has boosted defense spending by some 30%, which has had a distorting effect on its economy by forcing cutbacks elsewhere and prompting an increase in interest rates, the official said.
Some current and former U.S. officials played down the impact of Wednesday’s summit.
“It shows how desperate Russia is that they are engaged with the DPRK,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Wednesday, referring to the initials for North Korea.
Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea, said that while it’s unknown what Putin and Kim agreed behind closed doors, the summit’s outcome indicated there will continue to be limits on cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
“It looked like an opportunistic photo shoot,” with no joint statement on agreements released afterward, said Seiler, who left the U.S. government in July. “These are two countries that don’t have a lot to offer each other, other than shared talking points” about their fight against the West, he said.
Still, Seiler said, Kim has now jettisoned his earlier reticence to publicly support Putin’s Ukraine invasion. “That, I think, is the big thing that has changed.”
Hours before the summit, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles off its east coast, Japanese and South Korean officials said. Conducting weapons tests while Kim is away could be a demonstration that the regime maintains military readiness despite the leader’s absence, Pyongyang watchers said.
Many of North Korea’s missiles are based on Soviet-era technology and its artillery shells are compatible with much of Moscow’s weapons systems, weapons experts say.
North Korea has weapons stockpiles that could last for one to three months in a war, according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry, which means Pyongyang could have millions of shells stockpiled, weapons experts say. The exact size of North Korea’s ammunition stockpile and its continuing production is unclear, but Pyongyang has about 8,800 field guns and 5,500 rocket launchers, according to South Korea’s 2022 Defense White Paper. Pyongyang has more than 300 munitions factories, including around 100 civilian factories that can quickly convert to weapons production.
North Korea would be able to supply 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells that Russia has burned through during the war.
The Kim regime stands alone as having the production experience, capacity and willingness despite sanctions to supply Moscow, said Hong Min, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank in Seoul. But Pyongyang’s domestic production of late has been hampered by a lack of raw materials and energy shortages—areas that Moscow could help address.
“With Russia’s support, North Korea can also expand its munitions factories to serve as a long-term base producing war supplies for Russia,” Hong said.
Kim strolled around the cosmodrome as Russian officials explained how the country’s rockets get launched. PHOTO: MIKHAIL METZEL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
In return, Pyongyang could seek aid, energy and tech transfers for Kim’s top pursuits, such as nuclear-powered submarines or reconnaissance satellites. North Korea’s two recent attempts to place a spy satellite into orbit have failed.
Kim arrived in Russia accompanied by top military officials in charge of North Korea’s weapons production and satellite technology. If Pyongyang’s technology advances, the regime could track the military movements of the U.S. and its allies in real time. The accuracy of its nuclear-strike capabilities could be improved.
A joint South Korea and U.S. analysis of recovered debris from the first botched attempt showed major insufficiencies to be considered military-grade use. North Korea’s military satellite program is still very basic and many of its weapons are made of old components that need to be replaced, said Cha Du-hyeogn, a former South Korean presidential security adviser. “Russia could lend a hand in upgrading and advancing North Korea’s weapons programs.”
The Putin-Kim meeting, by validating closer coordination between the two nations, could also give some countries and private enterprises the green light to resume doing business with North Korea, said Darya Dolzikova, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank. Russia enjoys veto power at the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member.
The leader-to-leader summit “may legitimize trade with North Korea,” she said. “It sort of suggests Russia won’t stand in the way of other countries engaging with North Korea.”
As part of Wednesday’s festivities, Kim, wearing a black suit and silver tie, signed the Vostochny Cosmodrome’s guest book. “Russia’s glory of producing space pioneers will never be forgotten,” he wrote.
—Chieko Tsuneoka, Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel contributed to this article.
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com, Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com and Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com
Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Appeared in the September 14, 2023, print edition as 'Kim, Putin Boost Economic, Security Ties'.
4. S. Korea closely monitoring possible joint military drills between N. Korea, Russia
Again, is this an activity designed to mirror the ROK/US alliance? I cannot recall the nKPA conducting any kind of combined military training.
And based on previous reports we learned that Russia has apparently proposed trilateral naval exercises that would include the PRC. Would this be to signal its trilateral cooperation to mirror "JAROKUS" (Japan-ROK-US)
S. Korea closely monitoring possible joint military drills between N. Korea, Russia | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 14, 2023
SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's defense ministry said Thursday it is closely monitoring the possibility of North Korea and Russia conducting joint military drills, after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a rare summit.
Jeon Ha-kyou, the ministry's spokesperson, made the remarks amid growing concerns over military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow after Kim met Putin at the Vostochny space center in Russia on Wednesday.
The Kim-Putin summit was accompanied by their defense chiefs, raising speculation over possible military cooperation.
"There have been numerous such predictions, and while keeping that possibility in mind, (we) will continue to closely monitor for it," Jeon told reporters.
Jeon also warned against a possible arms deal between North Korea and Russia, noting such a move would violate U.N. Security Council resolutions.
"There would be parts that would be in violation of U.N. (Security Council) resolutions, and Russia likely already knows that," he said. "We have to hope that (Russia) abides by them, and I think we'll have to wait and see."
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin as they meet for a summit at the Vostochny space center in eastern Russia on Sept. 13, 2023, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 14, 2023
5. Kim-Putin summit highlights strategic push to expand cooperation
Is Kim coming to the concussion that he cannot go it alone and that he needs help from the axis of authoritarians? Is that theme exploitable from an information campaign perspective?
(News Focus) Kim-Putin summit highlights strategic push to expand cooperation | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · September 14, 2023
By Kim Soo-yeon
SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- The latest summit between the leaders of North Korea and Russia has served as a defining moment for the two isolated countries to advance military cooperation and expand their ties, spawning concerns that a new Cold War framework could be highlighted on the Korean Peninsula, experts say.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a summit Wednesday at the Vostochny spaceport in Russia's Far Eastern region. It marked their first talks since April 2019, when they held a summit in Vladivostok.
Details about the results of the summit are not known, but they are highly likely to have discussed Pyongyang's provision of artillery shells and ammunition to Moscow for its war in Ukraine despite international warnings.
North Korea also seems desperate to secure advanced weapons technology transfer from Russia, as the secretive regime is hellbent on developing high-tech weapons, such as military spy satellites and nuclear-powered submarines.
This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin holding talks at the Vostochny spaceport the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
"The summit between North Korea and Russia indicates the bilateral relations have developed into a level of strategic alliance beyond the restoration of their Cold War-era relations," Cheong Seong-chang, a director at the Sejong Institute, said.
The leaders of the two nations, which some call "pariah states," touched on the possibility of bolstering military cooperation during the summit.
Putin hinted at helping North Korea's satellite technology, while Kim expressed his "full" support for Russia over what it calls "special military operations" in Ukraine.
Amid the protracted war in Ukraine, Russia needs to replenish its depleting reserves of ammunition. Despite international sanctions on its nuclear and missile programs, North Korea is focusing on sophisticating its military arsenal, with its near-term goal apparently being making a third attempt to successfully launch a spy satellite in October.
At the Vostochny space center, Putin was quoted as saying by Russian state media that "that's why we've come here," when asked by reporters if Russia would help the North build its own satellites.
North Korea launched a military spy satellite, named the Malligyong-1, mounted on the Chollima-1 rocket in May and August, but they ended in failure.
This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (C) touring the Vostochny spaceport in Russia's Far Eastern region for his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin (R). (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Any arms deal between Pyongyang and Moscow constitutes a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban arms transactions with the North.
In the run-up to the summit, the United States warned it will "not hesitate" in imposing sanctions if North Korea agrees to provide weapons to Russia.
Experts said various formats of military cooperation between the North and Russia could be anticipated, including joint military drills.
"The two nations are expected to execute military cooperation in a gradual manner, starting from the North's arms supplies," Hong Min, a researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said.
"Russia's transfer of advanced technology related intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear-powered submarines may be carried out over the long term," he added.
But a ranking Seoul official remained doubtful about the possibility of Russia's advanced military technology transfer.
"There would be limitation for such a move, given that there is nothing for Russia to expect from North Korea other than artillery shells," a high-ranking official at South Korea's unification ministry told reporters Thursday. "Over the long haul, North Korea will only be a burden for Russia and China."
This file photo provided by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on June 1, 2023, shows the launch of the North's new Chollima-1 rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, the Malligyong-1, from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
North Korea has been seeking to bolster its ties with China and Russia vis-a-vis the strengthening of security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.
Joined by Russia's visiting defense minister and a senior Chinese official, the North's leader oversaw a military parade to mark its key anniversary in late July, a scene displaying solidarity among the three nations.
The leaders of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan held a trilateral summit at Camp David last month, and agreed to closely cooperate to counter Pyongyang's nuclear and missile threats.
Experts said South Korea needs to strengthen its relations with China in a bid to respond to North Korea and Russia's push to bolster the bilateral ties.
On the assessment of the Kim-Putin summit, China said "it is the matter of the two nations," seemingly keeping itself at a distance.
President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed Tuesday to "actively" seek a trilateral summit with China and Japan, a gathering not held since 2019 due to historical disputes between Seoul and Tokyo, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The level of three-way cooperation among North Korea, China and Russia appears to be lousy. In a situation where China is not actively participating, it would be wrong to regard the three nations as one bloc," the unification ministry official said.
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · September 14, 2023
6. Unification minister voices 'deep' concerns about possible N. Korea-Russia arms deal
Minster Kim is on message jhere:
"Ultimately, as North Korea adheres to nuclear development, it will only be confronted by a more powerful response from South Korea, the United States and Japan," he said.
Kim extended his criticism of North Korea by noting how the recalcitrant regime is sacrificing the livelihoods of its people to develop its nuclear and missile programs "at all costs."
Against this backdrop, he reaffirmed the government's commitment to improving the North's human rights issue.
"We should now take the lead to improve North Korea's human rights," Kim said, stressing that all inter-Korean exchanges and humanitarian support for the North should also be carried out in a way that benefits the North Korean people.
(LEAD) Unification minister voices 'deep' concerns about possible N. Korea-Russia arms deal | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · September 14, 2023
(ATTN: ADDS details from para 7)
By Kim Soo-yeon and Lee Minji
SEOUL, Sept. 14 (Yonhap) -- Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho on Thursday expressed his "deep" concerns about military cooperation and a possible arms deal between North Korea and Russia, as the leaders of the two isolated countries held a rare summit this week.
Kim addressed reporters a day after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a summit at the Vostochny space center in eastern Russia on Wednesday in their first meeting in more than four years.
The minister said Pyongyang and Moscow have apparently continued to be pushing for military transactions, citing Kim's visit to munitions factories and Putin's hint at supporting North Korea's satellite technology.
"We need to additionally grasp detailed results of the Kim-Putin summit, but we are deeply concerned about military cooperation and arms transactions between the two nations," Kim said.
"We once again called on North Korea and Russia to stop illegal and reckless acts that only deepen their own isolation, and abide by international norms, including the U.N. Security Council resolutions," he added.
Kim and Putin probably discussed how to deepen military cooperation, as Russia apparently needs North Korea's supplies of artillery shells and ammunition for its war with Ukraine, while the North wants high-tech weapons technology from Russia.
Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho holds a press conference on Sept. 14, 2023, in Seoul to express his views about inter-Korean relations, and the latest summit between North Korea and Russia. (Yonhap)
"Ultimately, as North Korea adheres to nuclear development, it will only be confronted by a more powerful response from South Korea, the United States and Japan," he said.
Kim extended his criticism of North Korea by noting how the recalcitrant regime is sacrificing the livelihoods of its people to develop its nuclear and missile programs "at all costs."
Against this backdrop, he reaffirmed the government's commitment to improving the North's human rights issue.
"We should now take the lead to improve North Korea's human rights," Kim said, stressing that all inter-Korean exchanges and humanitarian support for the North should also be carried out in a way that benefits the North Korean people.
"We will not pursue inter-Korean relations for short-term accomplishments or for the sake of merely looking good. We will establish a relationship and a system of exchanges and cooperation based on law and principle."
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · September 14, 2023
7. South Korea cleared to buy $5B worth of F-35s - Breaking Defense
Do we think that Russia could provide any where the technologically advanced weapons the South purchases from the US (and those that it builds itself)? South Korea is able to procure the most advanced aircraft in the world (and in history).
South Korea cleared to buy $5B worth of F-35s - Breaking Defense
breakingdefense.com · by Aaron Mehta · September 14, 2023
U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning IIs from the 356th Fighter Squadron at Eielson Air Force Base fly side by side with Republic of Korea Air Force F-35s from the 151st and 152nd Combat Flight Squadrons as part of a bilateral exercise over the Yellow Sea, Republic of Korea, July 12, 2022. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Trevor Gordnier)
WASHINGTON — The US State Department has formally approved the sale of 25 more F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to South Korea, with an estimated price tag of $5.06 billion.
In a statement posted on the website of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the Biden administration stated that the deal “will improve the Republic of Korea’s capability to meet current and future threats by providing credible defense capability to deter aggression in the region and ensure interoperability with U.S. forces.”
South Korea already has a standing order for 40 F-35A conventional take-off and landing models, meaning the new buy would increase its fifth-gen fighter fleet by over 50 percent. The first jets were delivered in 2019. The announcement comes on the heels of a major trilateral meeting between the leaders of the US, Japan and South Korea.
The announced deal covers 25 F-35A models, alongside 26 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines and a host of equipment. A commercial offset is expected, although details were not announced.
It’s important to note the announcement does not represent a final sale. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) cases announced like these have been approved by the executive branch for review by Congress; should the Hill not object, the quantities and dollar values in the deals can change during negotiations with industry.
In a company statement, prime contractor Lockheed Martin — which is having something of a moment in South Korea — said, “We are honored the Republic of Korea (ROK) is interested in additional F-35s, continuing the near decadelong F-35 partnership with Lockheed Martin. The F-35 is the fighter jet of choice for key allies across the Indo-Pacific region who require interoperable deterrence, and we are proud to provide the F-35 as the solution to meet the ROK’s regional air defense requirement now and in the future.”
breakingdefense.com · by Aaron Mehta · September 14, 2023
8.
Where up is down and down is up.
Mr. Miller is on message:
Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the State Department in Washington, characterized the meeting as Mr. Putin “begging Kim Jong-un for help.” But it is not just Russia turning to the Korean Peninsula for aid: Under deals worked out quietly with Washington, South Korea has been shipping large amounts of artillery shells to the United States for months. It insists that it is not supplying any lethal weapons directly to Ukraine. But its shipments to the U.S. military help free up American stocks for Ukraine to use in fighting Russia.
History Turns Upside Down in a War Where the Koreas Are Suppliers
By Choe Sang-Hun
Reporting from Seoul
- Sept. 14, 2023
- Updated 1:54 a.m. ET
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · September 14, 2023
LIVE See more updates: Russia-Ukraine War
Sept. 14, 2023, 5:28 a.m. ET
News Analysis
Desperate for munitions for the war in Ukraine, the U.S. and Russia have turned to their allies in South and North Korea, which kept stockpiling arms for decades after their own conflict.
A photograph released by North Korean state media showing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia on Wednesday.
- Sept. 14, 2023Updated 1:54 a.m. ET
Washington and Moscow flooded the Korean Peninsula with arms and aid as they fueled the war between South and North seven decades ago. Now, in a fateful moment of history turning back on itself, Russia and the United States are reaching out to those same allies to supply badly needed munitions as the powers face each other down again, this time on the other side of the globe, in Ukraine.
When President Vladimir V. Putin met North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, in Russia’s far east on Wednesday, they struck what North Korea called “a satisfactory agreement” on “the immediate cooperation matters” between the two states, which have found common interests in opposing the United States and its allies. If any specific arms deal was struck, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang was expected to announce it. Buying weapons from North Korea or providing help for its weapons programs are violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions that Russia itself voted for.
Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the State Department in Washington, characterized the meeting as Mr. Putin “begging Kim Jong-un for help.” But it is not just Russia turning to the Korean Peninsula for aid: Under deals worked out quietly with Washington, South Korea has been shipping large amounts of artillery shells to the United States for months. It insists that it is not supplying any lethal weapons directly to Ukraine. But its shipments to the U.S. military help free up American stocks for Ukraine to use in fighting Russia.
The Korean War never officially ended after the guns fell silent in a cease-fire in 1953. Still technically at war, both Koreas have since engaged in an arms race, building two of the world’s largest standing armies, with large stockpiles of weapons.
North Korea, though isolated and impoverished, has prioritized a military buildup, with its propaganda machines urging constant vigilance against American invasion. It developed its missiles by reverse-engineering Soviet systems. It is believed to have built its first intercontinental ballistic missiles with black-market rockets from Ukraine. The country has also earned cash by selling weapons to countries like Syria and Iran.
At the border between North Korea and South Korea. Still technically at war, both Koreas have engaged in an arms race since 1953.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
South Korea has built its defense industry by copying weapons provided in military aid from the United States. It also grabbed technology where it could, developing its first space rocket with Russian technology. It, too, leveraged its arms industry for exports, winning multibillion-dollar contracts to sell tanks, howitzers, warplanes, missiles and armored vehicles to help feed the demand driven, in part, by the war in Ukraine.
“In the post-Cold War era, South and North Korea have been virtually the only countries that have remained on a constant war footing, with large artillery and other weapons stockpiles ready to use,” said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “The fact that South and North Korea remain stuck in a Cold War armed confrontation explains why Washington and Moscow come to them seeking weapons.”
Artillery ammunition has been in particular demand as both sides in the Ukraine conflict tear through their stores faster than production can catch up. South Korean and American officials have been tight-lipped about how many shells South Korea has provided to the United States, and Seoul treats information on its weapons stocks as top secret. But recent news reports indicated that South Korea has sold or lent at least hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to the U.S. military.
Moscow has repeatedly warned Seoul against supplying weapons to Ukraine. But South Korea has been pressed by the United States, its most important ally, to help the war effort. The administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol decided to supply shells to the United States, designating it as the “end user” for the munitions.
“It’s basically left to the U.S. to decide whether to send the shells it received from South Korea to Ukraine,” Mr. Yang said.
Assembling an armored vehicle at a factory in Changwon, South Korea, earlier this year. Credit...Jun Michael Park for The New York Times
So far, no evidence has emerged that shells made in South Korea have been used in Ukraine. Nor has there been any public evidence that Russia has used North Korean arms and ammunition on the battlefield in Ukraine — evidence that Washington would be eager to publicize. But U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that North Korea was shipping artillery shells and rockets to Russia.
Arms deals between Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin could prompt hawks in South Korea to call for sending weapons directly to Ukraine — another reason Moscow and Pyongyang would likely refrain from publicizing such deals. But North Korea does have what Mr. Putin is seeking.
“Most likely, North Korea has tens of millions of shells for artillery in stock,” said Siemon T. Wezeman, an arms researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, noting that the country is estimated to have up to 10,000 artillery guns of 100 mm or higher calibers — more than the total of such weapons in use by all NATO countries. North Korea’s weapons are based off Soviet designs, and its artillery shells are in calibers used by Russia.
“Basically, Russia has a large number of guns that are compatible with North Korean ammunition,” Mr. Wezeman said. “The only ammunition North Korea cannot supply is smart ammunition. North Korea produces mainly the good, old, dumb, unguided — and thus not very precise — shells and not the more effective guided shells.”
One big question is how fast North Korea could supply munitions in the amounts Russia needs without being caught.
North Korea runs a vast network of munitions factories, including 100 plants that each employ more than 10,000 workers, said Hong Min, an expert on the North Korean military at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. One site Kim Jong-un visited in August, described in state media as “a new light electrical appliance factory” under construction, is involved in making shells and gunpowder, Mr. Hong said.
Smoke rising after a Russian strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, in July. There has not been any public evidence that North Korean arms and ammunition have been used by Russia in Ukraine.Credit...David Guttenfelder for The New York Times
“There seems to have been behind-the-scenes negotiation for North Korea to serve as a rear base of supplies for Russia,” he said.
In return for its weapons, North Korea hopes to get Russian food, energy and parts for its aging fleet of Soviet-era warplanes, tanks, howitzers and submarines, analysts said. It also covets recent versions of Russia’s Sukhoi fighter jets and its S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, they said. While hosting Mr. Kim at the new Russian spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Mr. Putin indicated that Russia may help North Korea with its troubled military spy satellite program.
Mr. Kim was expected to visit weapons factories and naval facilities in Komsomolsk-on-Amur and Vladivostok in Russia’s far east later this week.
Analysts warn that Mr. Kim’s diplomacy with Mr. Putin entails more than weapons trade, signaling a broader shift in his policy — from seeking negotiations with Washington to more definitively aligning with Russia and China against the United States.
But despite the warming ties between Russia and North Korea, there is still doubt that Mr. Putin would go so far as to provide North Korea with technology to perfect its ICBMs or build nuclear-powered submarines.
“Even a desperate war machine does not trade its military crown jewels for old, dumb munitions,” said Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “Trust is so low among Russia, North Korea and China that a real alliance of the three isn’t credible or sustainable.”
Choe Sang-Hun is the Seoul bureau chief for The Times, focusing on news in North and South Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun
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The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · September 14, 2023
9. Analysis | Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia hints at grim battlefield math for Putin
Excerpts:
Putin has only hinted at the trade so far. After he met with Kim at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region, the Russian president suggested that Russia could work with North Korea, despite the sanctions put in place by numerous resolutions from the U.N. Security Council. “There are certain restrictions, and Russia abides by them. But there are things we can talk about,” Putin told reporters.
The very first U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea, imposed in 2006, prohibits the export of North Korean “large-caliber artillery systems” as well as “any related material.” Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, backed that resolution; Putin himself was president at the time.
Russia may have already crossed the line. The United States said last year that Russia had already taken some deliveries of artillery ammunition from North Korea, though in that case Pyongyang was accused of sending only “thousands” of shells in what would be a comparatively small trade. Russia has also taken deliveries of Iranian-produced drones, which Western powers say violates an arms embargo placed on that country.
It is not clear what North Korea would get in exchange for any arms deal with Russia, though there is speculation that Pyongyang could seek more modern weapons technology from Moscow or more economic cooperation, such as an agreement that Russia can host more North Korean workers who can send hard currency back to their cash-strapped home government.
Whatever it is, for Putin it may be worth it. Having failed to quickly take Ukraine last year, Russia appears to be settling for a drawn-out conflict in the hope that Kyiv and its partners tire first. Western officials have been surprised at the lengths that Russia has already gone to evade sanctions to keep building weapons. Any artillery deal with North Korea would fit into the same pattern. Perhaps it is desperation. It may also be seen as determination.
Analysis | Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia hints at grim battlefield math for Putin
The Washington Post · by Adam Taylor · September 14, 2023
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For all the nefarious glamour of Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia — bulletproof trains, a meeting at a remote spaceport, dinner of duck salad and crab dumplings — many experts believe the visit shows the reality of grim battlefield math: The Russian army is burning through artillery shells in Ukraine at a rate it can’t sustain. Whether Vladimir Putin can find a solution to this calculation or not is crucial for the next stage of the war in Ukraine.
After the failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the Kremlin’s chief aim for the near future is to hold onto the land it did manage to capture, digging into well-fortified positions in a bid to grind down Ukraine’s counteroffensive. While much is made of the impact of drones and electronic jamming equipment, just as important if not more has been the use of technology that is, often literally, from the Soviet-era: Mines and artillery.
In Ukraine’s heavily contested south, “it’s a gunfight … heavily dependent on artillery,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Wednesday, suggesting that the supply of artillery ammunition was likely key to Kim’s visit to Russia.
Analysts have described Russian artillery units in particular as surprisingly skilled, a counterbalance to some of the more chaotic areas of Moscow’s army. A recent analysis by Britain’s Royal United Services Institute found that artillery units were particularly adept at the trial-and-error task of homing in on targets, sometimes able to accurately hit their mark within three minutes — “essentially the limit of what is physically possible,” given the time it takes to fire.
But this heavy use of artillery comes at a cost. Recent Western estimates suggest that Russia fired 11 million rounds in Ukraine last year. Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, told my colleagues that there were estimates that it would fire 7 million more this year. At that rate of expenditure, production alone can hardly keep up.
Accounts from Western officials suggest that while Russia has impressively boosted its military production, its capacity for artillery production is not higher than 2 million a year. From within the Russian military, there have been numerous angry accounts of shortages: The late Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin had complained of “shell hunger” on the front near the eastern city of Bakhmut, with his troops receiving only 800 of the 80,000 shells it needed per day, by his account.
With a shortfall in domestic production, Russia may turn to imports. Western allies of Ukraine have tried to up the production of 155mm caliber artillery rounds to keep Kyiv’s guns firing, with mixed success. But there are only a limited number of sources Moscow can turn to. Russia largely uses the 152mm caliber rounds that it developed during the Soviet era, but few of its former partners in Europe will sell their stockpiles to it now.
The Soviet Union once provided weapons to countries around the world that it sought to influence, creating client states that would be reliant on it for weaponry. In many ways now, the situation is reversed, with Moscow forced to ask the weaker countries it once supplied for help.
North Korea, which bought licenses for Soviet weaponry in the 1960s, quickly began producing weapons at a huge scale not only for its considerable domestic demand following the Korean War armistice but also for international trade. This trade continued after the fall of the Soviet Union, going underground in the face of harsh U.N. sanctions designed to block it.
Given the proximity of the South Korean capital Seoul, North Korea also focused on artillery production for its own military. A 2020 report by U.S. think tank RAND estimated there were nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers. Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, recently told the Associated Press that North Korea “may represent the single biggest source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia.”
Exactly how much North Korea could supply in any theoretical deal is unknown. Kirby said last year that Russia was likely hoping to receive “literally millions of rounds, rockets and artillery shells from North Korea,” though no firm details of any proposed deal have emerged.
Whatever quantity it provides, it may fall short in quality. North Korea, isolated and placed under sanctions, has largely focused on developing its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs over recent years, leaving its Soviet-era artillery ammunition to gather dust. Analysis of a 2010 barrage of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island by the North Korea-watching website 38 North found that half of the shells crashed into the ocean, failing to reach their target; a further quarter that did then didn’t detonate.
Putin has only hinted at the trade so far. After he met with Kim at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region, the Russian president suggested that Russia could work with North Korea, despite the sanctions put in place by numerous resolutions from the U.N. Security Council. “There are certain restrictions, and Russia abides by them. But there are things we can talk about,” Putin told reporters.
The very first U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea, imposed in 2006, prohibits the export of North Korean “large-caliber artillery systems” as well as “any related material.” Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, backed that resolution; Putin himself was president at the time.
Russia may have already crossed the line. The United States said last year that Russia had already taken some deliveries of artillery ammunition from North Korea, though in that case Pyongyang was accused of sending only “thousands” of shells in what would be a comparatively small trade. Russia has also taken deliveries of Iranian-produced drones, which Western powers say violates an arms embargo placed on that country.
It is not clear what North Korea would get in exchange for any arms deal with Russia, though there is speculation that Pyongyang could seek more modern weapons technology from Moscow or more economic cooperation, such as an agreement that Russia can host more North Korean workers who can send hard currency back to their cash-strapped home government.
Whatever it is, for Putin it may be worth it. Having failed to quickly take Ukraine last year, Russia appears to be settling for a drawn-out conflict in the hope that Kyiv and its partners tire first. Western officials have been surprised at the lengths that Russia has already gone to evade sanctions to keep building weapons. Any artillery deal with North Korea would fit into the same pattern. Perhaps it is desperation. It may also be seen as determination.
The Washington Post · by Adam Taylor · September 14, 2023
10. The Grim Endgame of Putin and Kim Jong Un’s New Lovefest
Sigh...
We all need to take a deep breath. Cooperation has long been occurring. We need to see these activities as opportunities to support an information campaign. We can undermine the legitimacy of Putin and Kim by focusing on "the why" they need to do this: it is because of their failures. Both nations are inferior to the collective security arrangements among the like minded democracies. They are trying to catch up but they will never be equals.
As an example:
The growing cooperation among Russia, north Korea, and China is certainly an axis of authoritarians and a threesome of convenience. It should be compared to the new trilateral security relationship of JAROKUS (Japan- ROK- US). The fact is the authoritarians are much weaker because their relationship is not built on trust, each serves its own interests only, there is no love for the members or strong people to people relationships. Most importantly, it is in the DNA of Kim Jong Un to play Xi and Putin off against each other just as Kim Il Sung played Mao and Stalin off each other before and during the Korean War and throughout the last seven decades..
On the other hand JAROKUS is built on a foundation of trust, with strong people to people relationships despite the historical issues between the ROK and Japan,, mutual interests and the shared values of freedom, free market principles, rule of law, and human rights. And lastly the combined military and economic power of JAROKUS is far superior to the threesome of convenience.
The Grim Endgame of Putin and Kim Jong Un’s New Lovefest
DATE NIGHT
The North Korean dictator’s visit to Russia threatens “deeply troubling” consequences for the U.S., experts say.
Donald Kirk
Updated Sep. 13, 2023 3:33PM EDT / Published Sep. 13, 2023 1:14PM EDT
The Daily Beast · September 13, 2023
Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast / Getty
SEOUL—Kim Jong Un got the treatment worthy of a head of state in an unusual setting—a tour as Vladimir Putin’s guest at the Vostochny Cosmodrome east of Russia’s Amur River from which the Russians have been launching rockets into space since 2016.
The personal tour on Wednesday, followed by a sumptuous state dinner, may signal that the Russians are willing to provide Kim’s regime with the technology needed to fulfill his dream of putting satellites into orbit as a reward for supplying Russian forces with much needed artillery shells. North Korea was also expected to sell the Russians a wide range of other infantry and artillery equipment from its stockpiles as well as brand new stuff being produced in factories hidden around the country
“The agreement involves much more than shells,” said Yoon Eui-chul, a retired South Korean army lieutenant general attending a conference at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. He said the North Koreans could sell Russia not only the shells it urgently needs, but also other weaponry for lower prices than it costs to make them in Russia.
For the North Koreans, the deal comes with oil and food that’s badly needed for a poverty-stricken population beyond the elite of the ruling party, the government and the armed forces, many of whose 1,200,000 troops are also underfed. North Korea counts on China for most of its oil and half its food, but “they don’t want to be totally dependent on the Chinese,” according to Phillip Saunders, China expert at the National Defense University in Washington. “They like to play one against the other,” he told The Daily Beast.
The reception at the Vostochny Сosmodrome dramatized Putin’s eagerness to cooperate totally with Kim on technology that the Russians were reluctant to give him when they met more than four years ago at the port city of Vladivostok, 930 miles to the south. “Now they need artillery shells and they’re willing to give what he wants,” said Saunders.
Putin and Kim smile for the cameras at a reception at the Vostochny Сosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region.
Sputnik/Artem Geodakyan/Pool via Reuters
The choice of the cosmodrome for the summit “was about optics,” said Justin Anderson, a senior fellow at the National Defense University. “They could have met in Vladivostok, but Putin, by inviting Kim to the cosmodrome, showed he would give him the technology for space.”
Kim, for his part, showed he was all in on the Russians in Ukraine, heaping superlatives on Russia’s “sacred fight to protect its state sovereignty and security while combating hegemonic forces,” supporting without qualification “every decision that President Putin or the Russian government makes.”
The lovefest at the cosmodrome climaxed a long history of Russian support for North Korea going back to the division of the Korean peninsula between the Soviet North and the American South after the Japanese surrender in August 1945 and then to Russian support for North Korea in the Korean War.
“In practice North Korea and Russia have already been cooperating in many ways for many years,” Bruce Bennett, long-time Korea analyst at the Rand Corporation, told The Daily Beast. Russia, then under Soviet rule, “provided fighter aircraft and pilots to assist North Korea during the Korean War, provided economic assistance and even a nuclear experimental reactor to North Korea in the 1960s, and provided highly enriched uranium for that reactor through the 1980s.”
Indeed, Bennett said, “North Korean ballistic missiles were initially versions of the Soviet/Russian ballistic missile, including Scuds, and have evolved from them.”
The difference now is that “all those cases involved North Korea seeking Russian assistance,” he said. “This time, Russia is seeking North Korean assistance with conventional munitions that it needs for the conflict in Ukraine” in return for which North Korea “ will inevitably demand substantial Russian compensation.”
It’s “because Russia is now the one seeking assistance,” added Bennett, that it’s “far more prepared to provide North Korea with things like nuclear submarine design, nuclear weapon design, satellite technology, and other technology that Kim very much wants,” Among other things, Russia may provide North Korea with “ nuclear weapon miniaturization technology” that North Korea needs in order to place nukes on the tips of missiles that it’s capable of firing as far as the United States.
The Russians in recent weeks have sent military delegations to Pyongyang, and the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, joined them in a look at North Korean military equipment on display in celebrations marking the 70th anniversary in July of what the North Koreans always call their “victory” in the Korean War. In effect, it seems, the Russians were window-shopping for a raft of military equipment, not just artillery shells.
Getting in the Way
Bruce Klingner, long-time Northeast Asia analyst at the Heritage Foundation, criticized the Biden administration for what he called “its lackadaisical enforcement of U.S. and UN sanctions” that theoretically ban Russia and North Korea from any dealings and called on “the international community to target North Korean violators as well as Russian, Chinese, and other nations’ entities facilitating Pyongyang’s transgressions.”
The two leaders pictured visiting the Vostochny Сosmodrome.
Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin via Reuters
“Russia’s need for foreign ammunition suppliers, despite its own extensive weapons and ammunition production capability, reflects desperation to replenish depleted reserves due to high expenditure rate of ammunition in Ukraine as well as how global sanctions have severely restricted Moscow’s supply chains,” he told The Daily Beast. “Any North Korean—Russian military support to each other would violate numerous UN Security Council resolutions.”
North Korea “is suffering economically from years of self-imposed draconian COVID restrictions on trade, international sanctions, and decades of failed socialist economies,” said Klingner. “The regime would therefore be very eager for any economic benefits from Moscow.”
For sure, however, any deal between Russia and North Korea would run afoul of UN sanctions, some of which Russia agreed on long before Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
“A successful North Korean-Russian arms deal would enable continued Russian aggression against Ukraine,” Klingner said, while “Russian military technology could enable North Korea to further refine its rapidly growing missile and conventional weapons force.”
The upshot: “Doing so would augment the increasing North Korean military threat to U.S. allies South Korea and Japan.”
Evans Revere, a former senior diplomat at American embassies in Seoul and Tokyo, agreed. “Both the Chinese and the Russians have set aside their earlier opposition to the DPRK's nuclear and missile programs,” he told The Daily Beast, referring to the North by the acronym for its formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
For its part, “North Korea is eager to maximize Russian and Chinese support for its faltering economy,” said Revere, “So Pyongyang is bending over backwards to be seen as a good partner and ally to Russia and China.”
The logic, Revere summarized, is irresistible.
“North Korean armed forces use the same type of basic artillery shells as the Russians,” Revere noted. “Pyongyang is well situated to draw down its massive stockpile of artillery shells and get its production facilities running at a higher tempo. Pyongyang also seeks Russian technology and assistance to advance its ballistic missile program. Some of its missile systems are based on Soviet-era technology, so reaching out to Russia for assistance is a natural move for the North Koreans.”
“At a minimum,” he said, “I expect the Russians will offer grain and fuel to Pyongyang in return for its artillery shells.” And, he said, “They may also take in more North Korean laborers, giving the DPRK a chance to earn much-needed foreign exchange.”
If Moscow “also decides to provide concrete support for the DPRK's missile and/or nuclear programs,” Revere warned, “that will be a deeply troubling challenge, and the United States will need to find a way to respond.”
The Daily Beast · September 13, 2023
11. Putin Hints at Satellite Technology Support for N.Korea
Putin Hints at Satellite Technology Support for N.Korea
english.chosun.com
September 14, 2023 09:36
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport in Amur Oblast on Wednesday.
Putin, who is notorious for being late to summits, arrived at the spaceport 30 minutes early to greet Kim. He hinted at providing satellite and missile technology to North Korea, while Kim threw himself body and soul behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"Now Russia has risen to the sacred fight to protect its sovereignty and security against the hegemonic forces that oppose Russia," Kim said in a flowery address. "We have always expressed full and unconditional support for all the measures taken by the Russian government, and I take this opportunity again to affirm that we will always be with Russia."
"We believe with certainty that the Russian army and people will achieve a great victory in the just fight to punish the evil forces," he added.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (2nd from left) visit the Vostochny Сosmodrome spaceport in Amur Oblast, Russia on Wednesday. /Reuters-Yonhap
Putin took Kim on a tour of the spaceport as Russian experts explained details of the latest rocket technologies, and Kim eagerly asked questions that suggested a considerable amount of knowledge of missiles, taking notes on his memo pad.
Asked if Russia will assist North Korea's development of satellites, Putin said, "That's why we came here," adding, "The leader of [North Korea] shows great interest in rocket technology, they are also trying to develop space."
North Korea's recent attempted satellite launches using rockets that are identical to intercontinental ballistic missiles violate sanctions by the UN Security Council, of which Russia is a permanent member.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (center right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (center left) attend a dinner in Amur Oblast, Russia on Wednesday, in this photo released by the [North] Korean Central News Agency.
The two countries have grown closer due to their international isolation. Putin is in need of an ally after invading Ukraine two years ago and wants North Korea to supply conventional weapons.
Pyongyang also needs support amid a failing economy after years of international sanctions over its nuclear and missile programs and a total border lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic.
The two leaders' meeting and talks with their delegations took about two hours, followed by a dinner in Kim's honor. Neither side disclosed any details, but the Kremlin said the two allies will cooperate in "sensitive areas which are not to be discussed in public."
Kim Jong-un Reaches Russia in 'Luxury Fortress on Rails'
Kim Jong-un Heads to Russia by Train
How Will Kim Jong-un Get to Vladivostok?
Kim Jong-un Meets Putin at Russian Spaceport
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
12. Russia Must Pay the Price If It Sells Arms Technology to N.Korea
But how do we make them pay?
Also, will this renew the call for South Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons?
Russia Must Pay the Price If It Sells Arms Technology to N.Korea
english.chosun.com
September 14, 2023 13:23
The leaders of Russia and North Korea held a summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport in Amur Oblast on Wednesday. All eyes were on what price Russia would pay for artillery shells from North Korea. The North apparently wants Russia to transfer technology related to nuclear-powered submarines and satellites, which are part of its five strategic objectives. When asked before the summit whether Russia would transfer satellite technology to North Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, "That's why we came here."
North Korea failed twice this year in attempts to put a spy satellite into orbit and has plans a third attempt next month. Another failure could have a detrimental impact on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's image. Even the Soviet Union never transferred cutting-edge weapons technology to an ally, and no country can deal in any arms with North Korea due to UN Security Council sanctions imposed over Pyongyang's nuclear provocations, which include a ban on satellite launches. Russia supported those sanctions. It is unheard-of for the leader and entire war cabinet of a country to travel to a remote province thousands of kilometers from the capital to meet Kim. That befits only an international pariah.
If Russia gets North Korean munitions and transfers not only satellite but also intercontinental ballistic missile technology, the Korean Peninsula and the entire world face a serious problem. The same goes for nuclear-powered submarine technology. Some experts say Putin could even provide Kim with state-of-the-art jet fighters amid rumors that Kim will visit a Sukhoi jet factory in the Russian far east.
If Russia does transfer cutting-edge military technology to North Korea, it will be a direct threat to South Korea. It would violate not just UNSC sanctions but cross the red line in relations with South Korea. Seoul would then have to take steps to protect itself. It has many options, and some of those are incomparably more powerful than any outdated North Korean munitions. Putin must make the right choice.
Read this article in Korean
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
13. N. Korean consumer of S. Korean film bribes his way out of punishment
We should be "flooding the zone" with information. Kim fears information more than almost anything else. (he fears the Korean people more)
N. Korean consumer of S. Korean film bribes his way out of punishment
The business person who sold him the SD card containing a S. Korean movie, however, is still being detained
By Lee Chae Un - 2023.09.14 10:00am
dailynk.com
N. Korean consumer of S. Korean film bribes his way out of punishment | Daily NK English
A 1 gigabyte SD card (Wikimedia Commons)
A 20-year-old in Hamhung who was recently arrested for watching South Korean films avoided punishment by paying a large bribe. However, the business person who sold the young person an SD card containing South Korean films is currently in jail.
Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, a source in South Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Monday that “last month in Hamhung, the anti-socialist and non-socialist task force caught a young man in his twenties who was watching a South Korean film [on a SD card]. However, they released him without punishment after receiving a bribe of RMB 25,000 [around USD 3,400].”
Continuing their search, the task force tracked the SD card back to a business person.
“Following the outbreak of COVID-19, business people who previously sold home appliances faced financial difficulties and started secretly selling SD cards loaded with South Korean films. Because these vendors never sell SD cards to strangers, you can’t buy from them unless you already have a connection.”
After being caught by the authorities, the 20-year-old confessed to learning about the business person through his friend and to buying the SD card for KPW 90,000.
Following the tip, security agents stormed the business person’s home in early September and searched the premises.
The task force failed to find any evidence to support their suspicions of the business person “distributing impure materials,” but arrested the individual anyway, the source said.
“After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, business people have had a difficult time because of financial difficulties. To make a living, they are risking their lives by selling South Korean films. It wouldn’t make sense for anyone to leave any evidence lying around. People have grown more vigilant and conduct themselves discreetly to avoid getting caught.
“They couldn’t actually find anything illicit in the business person’s house, so the individual will probably be released. This just goes to show that if you have money you can get away with things like watching South Korean films. But people without money have a harder time dealing with the increasingly strict laws and heavy punishments.”
Translated by Matthew Eteuati, Jr. Edited by Robert Lauler.
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Lee Chae Un
Lee Chae Un is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. She can be reached at dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
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14. Putin 'gratefully accepted' Kim's invitation to visit North Korea: Kremlin
Let's see Putin in Pyongyang.
Putin 'gratefully accepted' Kim's invitation to visit North Korea: Kremlin
The Korea Times · by 2023-09-14 16:33 | Foreign Affairs · September 14, 2023
Russia's President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un attend a meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, Wednesday. Reuters-Yonhap
Russian President Vladimir Putin has "gratefully accepted" North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's invitation to visit his country, the Kremlin said on Thursday, after the two men held a rare summit in Russia's Far East.
The summit has stoked U.S. concerns that a revived Moscow-Pyongyang axis could bolster Russia's military in Ukraine and provide Kim with sensitive missile technology.
ANALYSISKim-Putin summit signals 'new normal' of N. Korea-Russia relations
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Kim's visit to Russia would continue for several days. The Kremlin said Putin has now returned to Moscow from the Far East, where he showed Kim round Russia's most modern space launch facility.
Peskov described the summit between Putin and Kim as "timely, useful and constructive", and that Moscow would continue developing relations with Pyongyang.
He also confirmed that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would visit North Korea in October. (Reuters)
The Korea Times · by 2023-09-14 16:33 | Foreign Affairs · September 14, 2023
15. Russia and N. Korea make bold announcement to ignore UN sanctions
They are giving the UN and the international community the collective finger. And there are many in the US and South Korea who seem to be playing into their strategy by demonstrating fear of these "developments" (which are probably not much more than what has already been taking place in terms of cooperation - now there is just a public show of that cooperation. We should keep in mind there was no need for the meeting or the travel to Russia to conclude any deals. This is a part of the combined Kim-Putin political warfare strategy).
Russia and N. Korea make bold announcement to ignore UN sanctions
donga.com
Posted September. 14, 2023 08:17,
Updated September. 14, 2023 08:17
Russia and N. Korea make bold announcement to ignore UN sanctions. September. 14, 2023 08:17. .
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast, Russia on Wednesday and agreed on comprehensive cooperation. The Russian president expressed his willingness to support North Korea’s development of reconnaissance satellites and said that’s why they came here. The North Korean leader also said that the North would always stay with Russia on the front of anti-imperialism. It was made clear that the two would discuss military transactions of exchanging North Korea’s conventional weapons for Russia’s military technologies as a key agenda. During the summit, the two discussed not only easing sanctions against North Korea but also the export of food and energy and the dispatch of North Korean labor.
The summit practically produced a public announcement that North Korea and Russia would unite for the war to invade Ukraine and violate the U.N. sanctions against the North. Arms trade with North Korea, as well as technology transfer or provision of labor, all violate the sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council. Russia is one of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council that voted for the sanctions. The council’s permanent member position is a special status given to five winners of World War II to maintain world peace. Yet, Russia doesn’t seem to consider such responsibilities at all. "What's important to us is our national interests, not the U.S.'s warning," said the Kremlin.
Kim Jong Un’s schedule during his visit to Russia reveals a provocative message. The summit was held at a cutting-edge space station newly built by Russia, and the North Korean leader will visit Sukhoi’s combat plane manufacturing center. It seems like a public announcement that Russia will provide technologies for reconnaissance satellites, which North Korea failed twice to launch, and enhance North Korea’s air power in exchange for conventional weapons, such as shells and rockets, from the North. North Korea also launched two short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang to the East Sea one hour before the beginning of the summit as an armed demonstration to show off its military posture during the absence of its leader and disregard the international community’s warnings.
Both Kim Jong Un and Putin are dictators who prefer secretive dealings from their opaque positions of power. The two met and did not even try to hide their intention for arms trade. “We are cooperating in sensitive areas that should not be revealed or disclosed,” said the Kremlin. It doesn’t seem like sanctions or pressure would work for the two countries armed with nuclear weapons. However, the Western countries should strengthen their unity to keep a tight rein to prevent other countries from joining the two. Their honeymoon period, which was established for immediate interests and by temporary trade, won’t last long.
한국어
donga.com
16. [ANALYSIS] Kim-Putin summit signals 'new normal' of N. Korea-Russia relations
The new normal is simply the axis of authoritarians and the threesome of convenience.
[ANALYSIS] Kim-Putin summit signals 'new normal' of N. Korea-Russia relations
The Korea Times · by 2023-09-14 20:33 | North Korea · September 14, 2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, Russia, Wednesday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap
Putin accepts Kim's invitation to visit N. Korea
By Lee Hyo-jin
A high-stakes summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday signals a "new normal" of North Korea-Russia relations, according to analysts.
"Spurred by the Ukraine war and hostility toward the West, the two countries are deepening their relations to a level not seen after the collapse of the Soviet Union," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the state-run Korea Institute of National Unification.
"It is a 'new normal' of North Korea-Russia relations," he added.
How long the friendship will last depends on the course of the Ukraine war, Cho said.
The summit was held amid speculation that Pyongyang would provide ammunition and artillery shells to Moscow in return for Russia's technological support to develop its weapons and military satellites. While both countries have not disclosed details of the talks, Russia said the discussions included a range of "sensitive topics."
"It depends on how the war situation will develop. But if Russia becomes less desperate for munitions, relations with North Korea would no longer be a priority for Putin," Cho said.
On Thursday, Kim's bulletproof train was seen traveling toward the far eastern city of Khabarovsk, according to Russian media outlets, apparently on a tour around an aircraft plant at Komsomolsk-on-Amur. The far eastern city is located some 1,200 kilometers east of Vostochny Cosmodrome space center in Amur Oblast, where the summit was held the previous day.
Wrapping up their summit, the two leaders have kept the door open for another meeting, possibly in Pyongyang. During a reception held after the summit, Kim invited Putin for a reciprocal visit to North Korea, according to Pyongyang's state media.
Newspapers reporting a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un are sold at a newsstand at a railway station in Seoul, Thursday. AP-Yonhap
"At the end of the reception, Kim Jong-un courteously invited Putin to visit the DPRK at a convenient time," the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) reported, Thursday. DPRK is the acronym of North Korea's official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"Putin accepted the invitation with pleasure and reaffirmed his will to invariably carry forward the history and tradition of the Russia-DPRK friendship," it added.
However, Putin's visit to North Korea is unlikely to happen in the near future, said Park No-byeok, a former ambassador to Russia.
"The invitation seems like a gesture often exchanged by heads of states during a summit," he told The Korea Times, adding that the invitation itself does not carry a big significance. "The visit is unlikely to occur within this year."
Cho shared a similar view, saying that there is little reason for Putin to travel to North Korea as he has already gained what he needs through Wednesday's summit. He also pointed out that Putin has rarely made trips abroad since the beginning of the war.
The Kremlin said there is no plan for Putin to visit Pyongyang.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Putin does not yet have plans to travel to North Korea, according to Russian media reports. But he stated that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Pyongyang as early as in October to meet his North Korean counterpart Choe Sun-hee.
The rapid development in relations between North Korea and Russia has raised the specter of a new Cold War surrounding the Korean Peninsula, with Seoul, Washington, Tokyo on one side and Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow on the other.
But it remains to be seen how China will respond to the North Korea-Russia partnership. In recent months, Beijing has been refraining from emphasizing its ties with North Korea and Russia too overtly, in an apparent effort to maintain its relations with U.S.
"The Kim-Putin summit has revealed that the link between the two nations and China may weaken as some of the same common interests shared by North Korea and Russia is not of interest to China, especially the Ukraine war issue," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
Kim reaffirmed his support for Russia's war with Ukraine during the summit. But China has been trying to avoid any engagement in the war as it does not want to create enemies in Europe, Park said.
The Korea Times · by 2023-09-14 20:33 | North Korea · September 14, 2023
17. [INTERVIEW] Seoul should play delicate balancing act in diplomacy with China, Russia as new Cold War dawns
Cold War 2.0?
[INTERVIEW] Seoul should play delicate balancing act in diplomacy with China, Russia as new Cold War dawns
The Korea Times · September 14, 2023
In this pool photo distributed by Sputnik News, Russian President Vladimir Putin, center left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center right, visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region of Russia on Wednesday. AFP-Yonhap
Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac encourages Yoon to leave room for cooperation with Russia, China, while deepening ties with US, Japan
By Kang Hyun-kyung
The summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far eastern region of Amur has raised a red flag on regional security.
Few details were made public about the Putin-Kim summit, except their eagerness to deepen defense ties as revealed in their opening statements, the fact that Kim's itinerary was packed with visits to military-related sites and remarks Putin made about the summit's agenda.
Officials in the U.S. and South Korea said that North Korea and Russia were likely to have reached an arms deal during the hours-long closed-door summit, because it took place as Russia continues to grapple with a shortage of artillery shells in its war against Ukraine.
"If Russia and North Korea signed a weapons deal and the North agreed to provide artillery shells and munition as widely speculated, then Russia will do the same for the North in case a contingency occurs on the Korean Peninsula," Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's former ambassador to Russia, told The Korea Times during an interview on Wednesday.
It remains unknown what the quid pro quo for North Korea was.
Observing how quickly Kim and Putin fortified their partnership, Wi voiced worries about South Korea's lack of a grand strategy, which could guide policymakers to search for an optimal diplomatic course of action through which they can explore all possible resources to realize South Korea's interests.
He said that President Yoon Suk Yeol is moving in the right direction concerning trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan, but also pointed out that South Korea appears to be ill prepared for the three-way collaboration in the making between China, Russia and North Korea.
"South Korea has been zigzagging between the U.S. and China, depending on the administration. This is because Seoul has no foreign policy strategy to deal with them. Under this condition, South Korea will be seen as a country vulnerable to coercion," he said.
Wi Sung-lac, right on the screen, former South Korean ambassador to Russia, is seen at the Korea Times forum held in Seoul on Oct. 26 of last year. Also seen on the screen is Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. chief negotiator to the six-party talks that aimed to end North Korea's nuclear program. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul
Wi used the analogy of a clock to identify South Korea's relative diplomatic distance between the U.S. on one side and China and Russia on the other.
"Let's suppose that the U.S. is 3 o'clock and China and Russia are 9 o'clock as the two sides are poles apart on the security front, and the two sides are trying to pull South Korea closer to their position," he said.
The more South Korea nears 3 o'clock, the closer the country is to the U.S. This direction also shows that South Korea is growing further apart from China and Russia and does nothing to mend ties with them.
"For the past decades, South Korea has shown inconsistent records. Once, it was at 9 o'clock, but after a certain period of time, the country found itself near 3 o'clock," he said. "South Korea is one of the world's top 10 economies, but there are no other top 10 countries that go back and forth between the two opposing sides in such a dramatic way."
Contrary to South Korea, the former envoy said countries like Japan and Australia have been steady and consistent in the diplomatic policies.
"From my standpoint, Japan looks like 2 o'clock and Australia 2:30 and they have been there without fluctuating," he said.
He said South Korea needs a diplomatic roadmap that sets out the nation's goals, as well as diplomatic tactics to deal with the U.S., Japan, China and Russia.
Just like countries in the Asia-Pacific region dealing with China, Wi said Russia is the European equivalent of China as it poses the greatest security challenge to European countries.
"European countries have their own strategies and act based on them," he said.
According to him, the United Kingdom, for example, is tougher on Russia than any other country in the region.
"Germany and France also have their own principled strategies. Each of them is different because the circumstances those countries face are different. Germany's relations with Russia are comparable to South Korea-China relations as they are crucial trading partners, but at the same time they are pitted against each other on the security front," he said. "But none of these countries are zigzagging or going back and forth in their foreign policy postures when dealing with the U.S. and Russia."
Wi called for an integrated and coordinated foreign policy strategy that can help South Korea survive the tougher diplomatic landscape where U.S.-led democratic countries are pitted against the major three autocratic countries ― China, Russia and North Korea.
"There should have been a heated debate to draw a consensus from the Korean public about what to do with those countries in the nation's foreign policy strategy and such an effort should have continued at least for the past 15 years or so. Unfortunately, however, there was no such effort," he said, expressing regret over the lack of constructive discourse.
Wi said summit diplomacy without a strategy or policy direction becomes nothing more than a string of one-off events.
He likened summit diplomacy to a pre-programmed digital device.
"Summit talks are just hardware. That hardware will be working only when pre-programmed software is put in place inside the device. Policy and strategy are two key components of the software that make the hardware work," he said.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, left, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend a meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's far eastern Amur region, Wednesday. Reuters-Yonhap
Wi went back to the clock analogy to underscore what should be included in the strategy.
"Personally, I believe it will be best if South Korea moves a little bit back toward China and Russia, so the nation stands at around 1:30. In this direction, all other nations, including China and Russia, would know South Korea is an ally of the United States, but the country still has room for cooperation with China and Russia to discuss issues such as North Korea toward their mutual interest," he said.
The Camp David summit held in August was the defining moment that proclaimed South Korea's policy direction amid a Cold War-like confrontation in the making after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year.
The historic summit has been praised as a diplomatic milestone that opened a new era for trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. The leaders of the three countries agreed to meet regularly for trilateral summits and deepen ties in defense and several other areas.
"I agree with what others said about the summit. The Camp David summit opened a new era for trilateral cooperation of the countries," Wi said.
"But what was not addressed properly is that another era of confrontation also began and South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will see growing security threats from China, Russia and North Korea."
He said "doing nothing" with China, Russia or both is not an option for South Korea, because there are issues where South Korea should work together with them to achieve Seoul's diplomatic goals.
"Issues like the denuclearization of North Korea, peace and unification of the Korean Peninsula cannot progress if we cut ourselves off from China and Russia because they are stakeholders and they have roles to play," he said.
The Korea Times · September 14, 2023
18. PacNet #72 - How to build US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation on Taiwan - Pacific Forum
Sigh... USFK has little utility in the defense of Taiwan - the majority of US Forces in Korea are optimized to support the ROK/US Combined Forces Command with enablers (intelligence, communications, logistics). The main combat forces - the fires brigade are committed to the counter firefight and would have little to know value in taiwan. But it is job one for the ROK and US military forces in Korea to deter war with north Korea and a fight in Taiwan could create alliance vulnerabilities that Kim might try to exploit if forces left the peninsula. The most important forces in USFK that would have value in the defense of Taiwan are the fighter squadrons at Osan and Kunsan. But if we need to deploy these to fight in Taiwan that would likely mean the defense of Taiwan is going very poorly.
The author's 2d through 3d points have merit.
To the author's first point below, I would guess that such discussions have already taken place and will continue to take place but they should not be made public.
One other thing that can be done is similar to what we are learning from Ukraine - the need for large ammunition stocks. Both Korea and Japan's induretical base could contribute large amounts of ammunition to support a coalition defense of Taiwan. Perhaps it could be prepositioned in stockpiles in the Philippines - mayne in some of the supposed 400 deep tunnels in Luzon.
But the bottom line is the commitment of ROK and US troops from the Korean peninsula will mean things are going very badly in taiwan and will put the defense of South Korea at greater risk should Kim choose to exploit the situation. The enemy always has a vote.
PacNet #72 - How to build US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation on Taiwan - Pacific Forum
by Daniel Fu
pacforum.org
September 13, 2023
This PacNet was developed as a part of the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Next-Generation Leaders Dialogue to encourage creative thinking about how this vital partnership can be fostered. For the previous entries please click here, here, here, here, and here.
In recent years, Japan and the United States have taken a series of steps to bolster deterrence-building vis-a-vis the Taiwan Strait. In 2021, for example, Tokyo and Washington reportedly formulated a joint plan that entails the US Marine Corps setting up an attack base along the Nansei island chain in preparation for a Taiwan Strait military contingency. Moreover, following the conclusion of US-Japan Security Consultative Committee (2+2) discussions in 2023, it was announced that Washington would repurpose a Marine Corps regiment in Okinawa and equip it with anti-ship missiles that can target PLA Navy ships during a Taiwan Strait military conflict. The Republic of Korea (ROK), however, has long been reluctant to toe the same line. The election of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and recent public animosity towards China within South Korea, may change things. Seoul’s shift towards becoming more proactive on Taiwan issues has been notable. In May 2021, for example, Taiwan was named for the first time in a joint statement between the ROK and the United States. In February 2023, ROK Foreign Minister Park Jin stated in a CNN interview that Seoul opposes any unilateral change of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait via force and that such a change would have a “direct impact” on South Korea. This marked a remarkable departure from earlier posturing. It would be remiss to not transform such willingness, however slight, into incremental steps amenable to Seoul that ultimately support Taiwan’s defense. This article will identify and discuss three such steps that should be taken.
First, trilateral discussions involving the three countries should be organized to establish whether Seoul will allow troops from US Forces Korea (USFK) to support US operations during a Taiwan Strait military contingency. A commitment from Japan to permit the US to utilize its bases in-country to defend Taiwan, a move already expected by Chinese foreign policy elites, would enable Seoul the space needed to provide USFK the “strategic flexibility” to operate beyond the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, discussions can be held to formulate plans for ROK and Japanese forces to provide rear area and intelligence-gathering support in the event of a Taiwan Strait military contingency. In such discussions, it is critical for Washington to reassure Seoul of USFK’s ability to deter the DPRK from engaging in any military adventurism during a Taiwan Strait conflict. Washington, for example, could enter into a NATO-style nuclear sharing agreement with Seoul. Additionally, Seoul must be prepared for a distracted Washington in the event of a Taiwan conflict and be prepared to engage in more burden-sharing regarding deterrence efforts vis-à-vis Pyongyang. With the ROK’s already sizable military advantages over the DPRK, this should not be significant challenge.
Second, the three countries should seek to bolster cooperation with Taiwan via joint coast guard operations. Japan has proven proactive in this regard. In 2017, for example, Taiwan and Japanese officials signed an MoU enabling the conduct of joint search and rescue operations. Likewise, the US has sought to bolster Coast Guard ties with Taiwan and the two nations established a Coast Guard Working Group in 2021. The 2022 National Defense Authorization Act also mandates a report on National Guard cooperation with Taiwan, which should be expanded to include Coast Guard training as well. Given such precedent, Seoul should follow suit and initiate joint Coast Guard training exercises with Taiwan. All four nations should conduct training exercises together, particularly in the waters off Pacific Island countries with which Taiwan has diplomatic relations. Given Seoul’s potential concerns regarding provoking Beijing, cooperation can focus on issues such as drug trafficking, marine debris, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.
Third, the three countries should continue efforts to bring the Chip4 Alliance to fruition. The proposed alliance will enable the three countries to, together with Taiwan, build a more robust and comprehensive semiconductor supply-chain that reduces Beijing’s leverage on the international stage. All four nations possess a unique comparative advantage when it comes to semiconductors. As ROK Minister of Trade, Industry, and Energy Lee Chang-yang stated: “South Korea holds its strengths in memory chip [production], Taiwan is strong in the foundry business. The US has the equipment and technology and Japan is strong in minerals and components.” Chip4 has shown promise despite initial doubts regarding the initiative. In February 2023, for example, Chip4 held its inaugural video meeting featuring senior officials from all four nations thus assuaging concerns about preliminary delays. In March 2023, Japan lifted export controls previously imposed on the ROK’s semiconductor industry, thereby eliminating more barriers to cooperation in the semiconductor space. In the same month, South Korea appointed semiconductor expert Lee Eun-ho to be its envoy to Taiwan. Lee, the former president of the Korean Security Agency of Trade and Industry, a government institution that helps South Korean corporations comply with export controls, has already spoken favorably about Chip4. His appointment is a strong signal that the ROK is increasingly serious about heightening cooperation with Taiwan in the semiconductor space.
While Tokyo and Taipei’s participation is more or less assured, doubts remain regarding Seoul’s commitment to a potential Chip4 alliance given that 60% of its semiconductor exports go to China. Given past economic coercion by the PRC, Seoul is inevitably concerned that any decision to join Chip4 would be met by economic retaliation against its semiconductor industry. Seoul, however, should keep two things in mind. First, trends suggest that South Korean semiconductor exports to China will decrease precipitously going forward regardless of Seoul’s decision-making. Beijing has, after all, set a target self-sufficiency rate in semiconductors of 70% by 2025 and launched aggressive state subsidy programs to realize this goal. South Korean companies must be reminded that market opportunity in China will fall as Beijing pursues such autarky, even if it falls short of meeting its targets. Semiconductor exports from the ROK to China have already fallen 13.4% year-on-year. Second, Beijing has exhibited significant reluctance to sanction TSMC despite heightening cross-strait tensions. Moreover, US export controls, endorsed by the Netherlands and Japan, have made Chinese firms more dependent on South Korean companies such as SY Hynix and Samsung for critical semiconductor materials. Concern about potential countersanctions, therefore, should be minimal.
The aforementioned steps listed in this article provide three, realistic avenues through which the United States, ROK, and Japan can cooperate in a trilateral manner over Taiwan while also bolstering bilateral ties between each other. Any or all of these steps will remind Beijing that military action against Taiwan is strongly opposed by other East Asian security actors. As Beijing continues its campaign of military and economic coercion against Taipei and consolidates increasingly formidable military capabilities with an eye on Taiwan, such deterrence-building efforts are sorely needed.
Daniel Fu ([email protected]) is a Research Associate at Harvard Business School.
PacNet commentaries and responses represent the views of the respective authors. Alternative viewpoints are always welcomed and encouraged.
Photo credit: Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen (C) leaves Taoyuan International Airport on March 29, 2023, for a 10-day tour of Central America via the United States. (Photo courtesy of the presidential office) (Kyodo)
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Phone: 202-573-8647
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