Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The country is in the final chapter of the political dominance of the greatest generation and the baby boomers. BY the end of the decade their influence will give way to Millenials, Generation Z voters, and subsequent generations who will make up the majority of voters What is clear is that the generational changing of the guard and continued political reform will act as circuit breakers on the tribal politics that have dominated the last several election cycles. ... [When will things improve?] It's when the baby boomers die off. The largest population group in America now are the Millennials and the Gen Z's. and the emerging generations. ... you can see the current generation of politicians clinging to power, for every last opportunity to govern as they're well into their 80s, and the country will be a completely different place when the baby boomers who I think by the way, history will look back and say, drove America kind of off the road."

- Doug Sosnik

"I have learned that a woman can be a fighter, a freedom fighter, a political activist, and that she can fall in love, and be loved, she can be married, have children, be a mother... Revolution must mean life also; every aspect of life."

- Leila Khaled

“It is conventional wisdom that Steve Jobs put “a dent in the universe.” No, he didn’t. Steve Jobs, in my view, spat on the universe. People who get up every morning, get their kids dressed, get them to school, and have an irrational passion for their kids’ well-being, dent the universe. The world needs more homes with engaged parents, not a better fucking phone.”

- Scott Galloway, The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google

On this Day in History:

Mayflower's departure for America

On this date in 1620, English colonists aboard the Mayflower set sail for America, where they founded Plymouth, Massachusetts, after 41 men, including William Bradford and Myles Standish, signed the Mayflower Compact.

1. N. Korea's Kim meets Russian defense minister, inspects nuclear-capable bombers, warship

2. U.S. to seek further action over N.K. provocations, int'l law violations: NSA Sullivan

3. N. Korean athletes arrive in Hangzhou for Asian Games: reports

4. 3 Takeaways From the North Korea-Russia Summit

5. Gov’t acknowledges details of N. Korea’s weapon supply to Russia

6. South Korea, U.S. strengthen deterrence against North amid weapons deal concerns

7. N. Korea's Kim meets Russian defense minister, inspects nuclear-capable bombers, warship

8. North Korean arms for Russia probably won't make a big difference in Ukraine war: Milley

9. Ukrainian leader seeks Korea's reconstruction assistance in nuclear energy, resources, defense industry

10. [INTERVIEW] Cooperation in defense redefines Korea-Poland relations, says ambassador

11. Chinese police arrest defector remittance broker in Jilin Province

12. Failure to Launch: The Problem With the Putin-Kim Strategy

13. What Putin and Kim Want From Each Other

14. South Korea’s Interest in Nuclear Weapons Hasn’t Gone Away—It’s Just On Hold

15. Analysis | Kim and Putin meeting show just how much the leaders need each other

1. N. Korea's Kim meets Russian defense minister, inspects nuclear-capable bombers, warship

The headline and photos imply the message Kim and Putin want to send - to scare us about Russia's support to north Korea with nuclear weapons, missiles, and advanced military capabilities. We should recall that Russia has long provided support to the regime but it just rarely made the news.

(4th LD) N. Korea's Kim meets Russian defense minister, inspects nuclear-capable bombers, warship | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 16, 2023

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; ADDS Kim's visit to Russian warship in paras 5-6)

By Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Sept. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and inspected Russia's nuclear-capable bombers, missiles and a warship Saturday after he arrived in Russia's far eastern city of Vladivostok, Russian media reported.

Kim has been touring Russia's Far East after his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday at the Vostochny space center amid growing concerns over possible military cooperation between the two countries.

Russia's TASS news agency reported Kim arrived at the Knevichi airfield in Vladivostok on Saturday, where he was greeted by Shoigu and an honor guard.

Guided by Shoigu, Kim looked at Russia's nuclear-capable strategic bombers -- Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 -- and its latest hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, according to news reports.

Later in the day, Kim and Shoigu also inspected the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate of Russia's Pacific Fleet moored in Ulysses Bay in the port city, according to TASS.

Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, briefed Kim on the characteristics of the ship and its weapons, it said.

On Friday, Kim visited a Russian aircraft plant that produces advanced fighter jets, including the Sukhoi Su-35, in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

During his trip to the Yuri Gagarin Aviation Plant, Kim said he was "deeply impressed" with the advanced state of Russian aerospace and aviation technology, according to Pyongyang's state media.

"Saying that he was deeply impressed by the rich independent potential and modernity of the Russian aircraft manufacturing industry and its ceaseless enterprising efforts toward new goals, he sincerely hoped that the plant would make sustained development by achieving higher production growth in the future," the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) is given a tour of an aircraft cockpit during his visit to the Yuri Gagarin Aviation Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, a city in Russia's far eastern region, on Sept. 15, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Kim expressed "sincere regard" for Russia's aviation technology undergoing rapid development and "outpacing the outside potential threats," it added.

He also "highly appreciated the officials, scientists, technicians and workers of the plant for making a great contribution to the development of the country's air industry by achieving excellent successes in production with highly advanced technology and strong mental power."

Founded in 1934, the aviation plant made a "great contribution to defeating fascism" during the Soviet Union's Great Patriotic War by producing various kinds of aircraft, including long-range bombers. Today it is the largest Su-type fighter jet manufacturer in Russia, according to the KCNA.

Kim was accompanied by the North's top party and military officials, including Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and top advisor Marshal Ri Pyong-chol. Also included in the group were Pak Jong-chon, a leader in the Workers' Party of Korea and Pak Thae-song, an official in charge of space technology.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) tours the Yuri Gagarin Aviation Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, a city in Russia's far eastern region, on Sept. 15, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 16, 2023

2. U.S. to seek further action over N.K. provocations, int'l law violations: NSA Sullivan

Yes we must work all levers of national power especially diplomatic and economic. We have already raised military readiness to the highest level which must be sustained to provide the foundation for all other levers of power. But it is the information element of national power that remains deficient. We must embark on a sophisticated, aggressive, and long term information campaign to shape the environment, undermine the legitimacy of the axis of authoritarians (and the threesome of convenience) - especially the Kim family regime, and provide practical knowledge to people to create internal change. The last is how you really pressure authoritarian regimes and how you support a human rights upfront approach.

U.S. to seek further action over N.K. provocations, int'l law violations: NSA Sullivan | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · September 16, 2023

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 (Yonhap) -- The United States will press for further action over North Korea's provocations and other breaches of international law, a senior U.S. official said Friday, after a recent summit between Pyongyang and Moscow deepened concerns about a potential arms deal between them.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made the remarks, assessing that North Korea's talks with Russia over its potential supply of weapons for use in the war in Ukraine have continued to "advance."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a rare summit at a Russian spaceport on Wednesday, as Kim apparently wants military technology cooperation from Russia with Putin seeking more ammunition from the North.

"We will continue to press for further action in New York in response to provocations and other steps that North Korea takes that are in violation of international law," Sullivan told a press briefing on President Joe Biden's plan to attend the U.N. General Assembly next week.

Asked to offer his evaluation of the meeting between Kim and Putin, Sullivan said, "Our view has been before (Kim's) visit and after the visit that talks about the provision of weapons by North Korea to Russia to kill Ukrainians have been advancing and continue to advance."

Pointing to his trilateral call with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts, Cho Tae-yong and Takeo Akiba, on Thursday, Sullivan highlighted that the close alignment between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo is enough to respond to any collaboration between Kim and Putin.

"The three of us had the opportunity to compare notes on this and to coordinate what steps we will take in the coming days and weeks," he said. "We are very closely aligned on a trilateral basis to respond to anything that Russia chooses to do with North Korea on a going forward basis."

At this week's summit, Putin signaled an intention to help the North with satellite technology, while Kim voiced his support for the Russian leader.

U.S. officials have warned that an arms deal between North Korea and Russia would be in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions that Moscow itself voted for.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is seen speaking during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Sept. 5, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · September 16, 2023

3. N. Korean athletes arrive in Hangzhou for Asian Games: reports

The other half of the regime's coming out party.

N. Korean athletes arrive in Hangzhou for Asian Games: reports | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 16, 2023

BEIJING/SHENYANG, China, Sept. 16 (Yonhap) -- A group of North Korean athletes has reportedly arrived in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou to participate in the upcoming Asian Games.

North Korea has registered 191 athletes to attend the Hangzhou Asian Games set to run from next Saturday to Oct. 8, according to the organizer's website.

Some 60 North Korean athletes and coaches arrived at Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport on Friday evening, Chinese media reported.

They first arrived in Dandong, northeastern China, on Friday by bus from North Korea's border city of Sinuiju and then boarded a flight to Hangzhou, a source based in Dandong said.

The Games will mark the first international multisport competition for North Korea to take part in since the 2018 Asian Games in Indonesia.

North Korea skipped the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, citing concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, and was banned by the International Olympic Committee from competing in the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. The ban was lifted at the end of last year.

Pyongyang implemented strict border restrictions in January 2020 for over three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before announcing official border reopening measures last month.

This file photo, taken Aug. 16, 2023, shows buses traveling across a bridge connecting the North Korean border city of Sinuiju and Dandong in China. (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · September 16, 2023

4. 3 Takeaways From the North Korea-Russia Summit

Again, I think China is happy to use north Korea as a"cut out" for support to Russia. China does not want to see Putin fail in Ukraine. But it is also concerned with international criticism. north Korea allows China to keep it semi-distant from Russia on military support.

Excerpts:

But with Chinese spokespeople avoiding specific comment about the Putin-Kim summit, Beijing appears to be concerned about the spread of perceptions that China, Russia, and North Korea are one bloc. Lumping Beijing together with Pyongyang as part of a new “axis of evil” would exert a bad influence on China’s global strategy, including toward the United States.

China prefers to keep its ties with Pyongyang quiet and distant from its main foreign policy ambitions. Beijing has not even included North Korea in its signature Belt and Road Initiative, which covers over three-fourths of the world’s countries.

Looking at the West, the United States is strengthening cooperation with Japan and South Korea in an effort to counter the rise of China, but this could lead to strategic closer ties between China, Russia, and North Korea. The more Japan, the United States, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Vietnam strengthen their ties, the more they will bring China closer to the camp of Russia and North Korea. This is a security dilemma, the law of action and reaction.

Some American international politics scholars, including John Mearsheimer, have argued that the United States erred in expanding NATO too much to the east, thus pushing Russia too far and leading to the invasion of Ukraine. In East Asia, if Japan, the United States, and South Korea corner China too much, a similar situation could occur in Taiwan.

With that in mind, it would be desirable for Japan and South Korea to continue dialogue with China, taking into account the geopolitical risks of sharing a border with China.

3 Takeaways From the North Korea-Russia Summit

Russia-North Korea military ties have grown closer since the start of the Ukraine War.

thediplomat.com · by Takahashi Kosuke · September 16, 2023

On September 13, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un met and held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome – a spaceport located in the Amur Oblast in Russia’s Far East region. They held a marathon meeting that lasted over five hours and was followed by a dinner of crab dumplings and sturgeon. It was their second meeting, with the first taking place in April 2019 in Vladivostok; the visit also represented Kim Jong Un’s first trip abroad since 2019.

Here are three take-aways from the Putin-Kim summit.

The War in Ukraine Brings Closer Ties

The two nations have drawn closer and closer together since Russian’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“Russia has risen to a sacred fight to protect its sovereignty and security… against the hegemonic forces,” Kim told Putin at the summit. “We will always support the decisions of President Putin and the Russian leadership… and we will be together in the fight against imperialism,” which apparently refers to the United States.

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Eager to strengthen its ties with Moscow, Pyongyang has opposed any U.N. resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In July 2022, it officially recognized the independence of the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk of eastern Ukraine (the Donbas), which Russia first invaded in 2014. In response, Ukraine immediately severed diplomatic ties with North Korea.

In return, Pyongyang has been rewarded by Moscow.

The food crisis in North Korea is worsening, and people are starving to death even in the capital Pyongyang, according to news reports. In such a severe situation, in July 2023, Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision announced that since the beginning of 2023, Russia had exported 3,833 tons of wheat flour to North Korea from the Kuzbass region of Siberia.

This followed a similar press release from April 2023 where the federal service announced that since the beginning of 2023, Russia had sent more than 2,800 tons of corn to North Korea from the Amur Oblast of the Russian Far East region.

Pyongyang has also become more dependent on Moscow for energy. Russia increased its oil supply to North Korea in July by about five times compared to the previous month, with oil exports totaling 10,933 barrels, according to a report posted on the United Nations Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea on its website on September 11.

Growing Military Cooperation

Militarily, North Korea is now desperately trying to obtain technology for military reconnaissance satellites and nuclear submarines from Russia. Kim Jong Un ordered his military to achieve nine goals at the 8th Korean Workers’ Party Congress held in January 2021, including solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hypersonic missiles. According to South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo, at least seven fields are on the verge of mass production and deployment; the two goals where North Korea is lagging behind are , reconnaissance satellites and nuclear submarines.

This is the main reason Kim visited the Vostochny Cosmodrome and the Far Eastern city of Vladivostok to view the Pacific Fleet of the Russian navy. His delegation included Pak Thae Song, chairman of North Korea’s space science and technology committee, which develops artificial satellites, and Navy Commander Kim Myeong Sik, who is in charge of developing submarines.

Kim also brought along Jo Chun Ryong, the general manager of North Korea’s military industry, including artillery and gunpowder production. Jo’s inclusion would be essential for negotiations regarding the supply of ammunition, which Russia is said to be desperately seeking.

Pyongyang is believed to have already supplied Moscow with weapons and ammunition to support its war in Ukraine. On January 20, 2023 the White House stated in a press briefing that North Korea was supplying Russia’s private military company – the Wagner Group – with arms and ammunition to aid its war effort in Ukraine. Local sources within North Korea have also confirmed growing ammunition sales to Russia, according to Daily NK.

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On September 13, the New York Times reported Russia is expanding its weapons production to avoid sanctions imposed by Western countries. The country’s production capacity for artillery shells is estimated to be seven times that of Western countries.

Meanwhile, Reuters, citing Western officials, reported on September 9 that it is estimated Russia had consumed 10 million to 11 million rounds of ammunition during 2022. It pointed out that although Russia’s ammunition production could increase to 2 million rounds a year in the next few years, this would not solve the shortage.

Will China Join the Russia-North Korea Bloc?

When Kim Jong Un visited Russia, it was his first trip abroad in four years, since the COVID-19 pandemic started in late 2019. Notably, Kim’s last trip off the Korean Peninsula was also a trip to Russia in April 2019.

China, which assumes the role of guardian of North Korea, has to be nervous about the rapid development of ties between Russia and North Korea.

Putin met with Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing on September 12 on the sidelines of the 8th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok and said that “the bilateral relationship between Russia and China has entered its best period in history.”

But with Chinese spokespeople avoiding specific comment about the Putin-Kim summit, Beijing appears to be concerned about the spread of perceptions that China, Russia, and North Korea are one bloc. Lumping Beijing together with Pyongyang as part of a new “axis of evil” would exert a bad influence on China’s global strategy, including toward the United States.

China prefers to keep its ties with Pyongyang quiet and distant from its main foreign policy ambitions. Beijing has not even included North Korea in its signature Belt and Road Initiative, which covers over three-fourths of the world’s countries.

Looking at the West, the United States is strengthening cooperation with Japan and South Korea in an effort to counter the rise of China, but this could lead to strategic closer ties between China, Russia, and North Korea. The more Japan, the United States, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Vietnam strengthen their ties, the more they will bring China closer to the camp of Russia and North Korea. This is a security dilemma, the law of action and reaction.

Some American international politics scholars, including John Mearsheimer, have argued that the United States erred in expanding NATO too much to the east, thus pushing Russia too far and leading to the invasion of Ukraine. In East Asia, if Japan, the United States, and South Korea corner China too much, a similar situation could occur in Taiwan.

With that in mind, it would be desirable for Japan and South Korea to continue dialogue with China, taking into account the geopolitical risks of sharing a border with China.

CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR

Takahashi Kosuke

Takahashi Kosuke is Tokyo Correspondent for The Diplomat.

thediplomat.com · by Takahashi Kosuke · September 16, 2023

5. Gov’t acknowledges details of N. Korea’s weapon supply to Russia

Gov’t acknowledges details of N. Korea’s weapon supply to Russia

donga.com

Posted September. 16, 2023 08:09,

Updated September. 16, 2023 08:09

Gov’t acknowledges details of N. Korea’s weapon supply to Russia. September. 16, 2023 08:09. by Hyo-Ju Son hjson@donga.com.

As North Korea and Russia solidified their military cooperation through a summit meeting, which hinted at a potential arms deal, the Ministry of National Defense made a statement. They stated, "Indications suggest that North Korea is supplying weapons to Russia." Going beyond their previous somewhat vague position, the Ministry of National Defense affirmed that there is a likelihood of arms trade between the two countries, officially confirm‎ing the provision of North Korean weapons to Russia.

During a briefing on Friday, an official from the Ministry of National Defense stated, "We have gathered evidence suggesting that North Korea is involved in providing weapons, and we have been consistently monitoring this situation in collaboration with South Korea and the United States." When asked about the possibility of providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, the Ministry of National Defense clarified that there was no change in the current government policy, which refrains from directly supplying lethal arms. "Our focus will be on implementing sanctions in accordance with international norms," a senior government official expressed. "If there is no change in the behavior of North Korea and Russia, we may consider direct support in the future."

Previously, the Ministry of National Defense acknowledged the possibility of North Korea providing weapons to Russia in July when foreign media outlets, including the Financial Times from the United Kingdom, reported the discovery of North Korean-manufactured multiple rocket launchers on a Ukrainian battlefield. At that time, the Ministry of National Defense released images of artillery shells with Korean writing found on the scene. However, their official response had been somewhat cautious, stating that such weapons support was possible or that they were closely monitoring related developments. In contrast, during the recent announcement, the Ministry elevated the level of its statement by effectively confirm‎ing that North Korea had indeed supplied weapons, including artillery shells, to Russia. They stated, "The circumstances of weapons provision have been verified." Our government had been aware of North Korea's weapons support to Russia for several months, gathering information through reconnaissance satellites, but had not publicly confirmed it until now.

"Taking advantage of the North Korea-Russia summit, our government is sending a strong message that it is well aware of North Korea's open provision of weapons support and closely monitoring the developments in the arms trade,” a South Korean government insider stated. “This stance serves as a warning to both North Korea and Russia, conveying that, should they escalate their activities, South Korea and the international community will hold them accountable for their actions."

한국어

donga.com

6. South Korea, U.S. strengthen deterrence against North amid weapons deal concerns

How much more can we "strengthen deterrence?" I have been asked this question quite a bit lately. Our military readiness is at the highest that it has been since we unilaterally cancelled the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (now Ulchi Freedom Shield) exercise in 2018 and dealt with the effects of COVID. We are doing all the right things to sustain our high level of readiness to include a sustained level of combined exercises year round. Press and pundits continue to demand that we do "something else" in the face of every report of north Korean and north Korean and Russian action. We are doing enough. We need to take a deep breath and calm down and stop allowing north Korea and Russia to drive the narrative.

We need to explain this and demonstrate that we are militarily far superior to north Korea even if they receive advanced military technology from Russia. We do not need to keep reacting (or overreacting) with military activity. We need to show how our sustained military activity is always superior to whatever action the north is conducting.

Friday

September 15, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Published: 15 Sep. 2023, 17:02

Updated: 15 Sep. 2023, 19:04

South Korea, U.S. strengthen deterrence against North amid weapons deal concerns

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-09-15/national/northKorea/South-Korea-US-strengthen-deterrence-against-North-amid-weapons-deal-concerns/1870540

Foreign Minister Park Jin, center, poses with participants in Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group talks at the ministry’s headquarters in central Seoul on Friday. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]

South Korea and the United States vowed to elevate their deterrence against North Korea, the allies announced in a joint statement after defense talks Friday.

The statement comes amid growing concerns about a possible weapons deal between Pyongyang and Moscow following North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent meeting.

The announcement was the outcome of the fourth meeting of the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (Edscg) in Seoul, a regular gathering of vice-ministerial defense officials and diplomats.

“The United States and the Republic of Korea reviewed their ongoing bilateral cooperation to deter DPRK nuclear and non-nuclear aggression and thus to enhance security on the Korean Peninsula and in the region, and discussed various measures to further strengthen the Alliance’s deterrence and defense posture,” the Foreign Ministry said in its statement Friday, referring to the North by the acronym of its full name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

While the two allies reaffirmed their existing commitment to pursue the North's denuclearization, their renewed focus will include a wider range of the North's illicit activities.

“The two sides agreed to further enhance coordination to address DPRK sanctions evasion and illicit cyber activities, using diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools,” they said.

The statement also warned Pyongyang that “third party” protection will not weaken Washington's security commitment to Seoul.

“In the context of mounting DPRK threats to regional stability, in part facilitated by third parties’ shielding of the DPRK from consequences for its brazen UNSCR [UN Security Council resolutions] violations, the United States underlined its ironclad and unwavering security commitment to the Republic of Korea, using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and other advanced non-nuclear capabilities, to provide extended deterrence for the ROK,” it read.

The Edsgc was re-established following a summit between President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden in Seoul in May 2022.

BY PARK EUN-JEE [park.eunjee@joongang.co.kr]

7. N. Korea's Kim meets Russian defense minister, inspects nuclear-capable bombers, warship

Kim and the defense minister seem like old friends now.

N. Korea's Kim meets Russian defense minister, inspects nuclear-capable bombers, warship

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · September 16, 2023

By Yonhap

Published : Sept. 16, 2023 - 09:13

In this photo taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, right, smiles to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, as he inspects Russian warplanes at the Vladivostok International airport in Vladivostok, Russian Far East on Saturday. (Photo - AP)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and inspected Russia's nuclear-capable bombers, missiles and a warship Saturday after he arrived in Russia's far eastern city of Vladivostok, Russian media reported.

Russia's TASS news agency reported Kim arrived at the Knevichi airfield in Vladivostok on Saturday, where he was greeted by Shoigu and an honor guard.

Guided by Shoigu, Kim looked at Russia's nuclear-capable strategic bombers -- Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 -- and its latest hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, according to news reports.

Later in the day, Kim and Shoigu also inspected the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate of Russia's Pacific Fleet moored in Ulysses Bay in the port city, according to TASS.

Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, briefed Kim on the characteristics of the ship and its weapons, it said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited the Yuri Gagarin Aviation Plant that produces advanced fighter jets including the Sukhoi Su-35 in the far eastern region of Komsomolsk-on-Amur on Friday in this photo released by state-run Korean Central News Agency the following day. (Photo - Yonhap)

On Friday, Kim visited a Russian aircraft plant that produces advanced fighter jets, including the Sukhoi Su-35, in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

During his trip to the Yuri Gagarin Aviation Plant, Kim said he was "deeply impressed" with the advanced state of Russian aerospace and aviation technology, according to Pyongyang's state media.

Kim expressed "sincere regard" for Russia's aviation technology undergoing rapid development and "outpacing the outside potential threats," it added.

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · September 16, 2023

8. North Korean arms for Russia probably won't make a big difference in Ukraine war: Milley

I hope we can track the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of north Korean weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine. I hope we can capture the failures and then incorporate them into one line of effort of an information campaign to show how the nKPA will fail in any attack of the South because of its inferior weapons.

North Korean arms for Russia probably won't make a big difference in Ukraine war: Milley

The Korea Times · September 16, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un examine a launch pad during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the city of Blagoveshchensk in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, Sept. 13. AP-Yonhap

North Korea may be able to boost Russia's supply of artillery munitions for the war in Ukraine , but that is not likely to make a big difference, the top American military officer said as he arrived in Norway for NATO meetings that began Saturday and will focus in part on the conflict.

U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the recent meeting in Russia between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably lead North Korea to provide Soviet-era 152 mm artillery rounds to Moscow. But he said it was not yet clear how many or how soon.

“Would it have a huge difference? I’m skeptical of that,” Milley told reporters traveling with him. He said that while he does not want to play down the weapons assistance too much, "I doubt that it would be decisive.”

Foreign governments and experts have speculated that Kim will likely supply ammunition to Russia in exchange for receiving advanced weapons or technology from Russia.

Milley and the other defense chiefs from NATO countries are meeting at the Holmenkollen ski area on the edge of Oslo over the next several days to discuss support for Ukraine and other regional defense issues. From there, Milley will attend the monthly meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany, Tuesday. That group, led by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, is the main international forum for drumming up military support for Ukraine.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, left, listens to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speak during an observance ceremony to honor the 184 people killed in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the Pentagon, at the National 9/11 Pentagon Memorial in Washington, D.C., Sept. 11. AFP-Yonhap

The NATO meetings come as Ukraine forces are making slow progress breaking through Russian battle lines in a counteroffensive that has not moved as quickly or as well as initially hoped. Kyiv's leaders are lobbying for a new round of advanced weapons, including longer range missiles.

Adm. Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, said Saturday at the meetings that history will show “Ukraine has transformed modern warfare and they are moving forward every day. Every success is one step closer to victory." He said Russian forces "keep losing more and more ground, and the whole of Russia is suffering under the impact of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation."

Milley said there is a continued need for more weapons and equipment in Ukraine and that allies and partners will be discussing how to address that. He said he believes there continues to be broad, bipartisan support in the United States and the U.S. Congress for the aid.

But American lawmakers are increasingly divided over providing additional assistance for Ukraine as the war is well into its second year. President Joe Biden has proposed a package of $13.1 billion more in military aid and $8.5 billion for humanitarian support. Conservative Republicans are pushing for broad federal spending cuts and some of those allied with former President Donald Trump are specifically looking to stop money to Ukraine.

The issue will be a prime topic in Washington in the coming week when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits the White House and Capitol Hill during his stop in the United States to attend the U.N. General Assembly.

In Norway, the NATO chiefs of defense will follow up their meeting Saturday with a smaller gathering Sunday of about a dozen Western and Indo-Pacific military leaders that Milley said will focus on lessons learned in the Ukraine war and how they can be applied to the Pacific.

The U.S. considers China its key national security challenge and tensions between the two nations have grown as Beijing continues an aggressive military expansion in the region. Over the past year, China has stepped up military activities around Taiwan, sending warships and warplanes on a near-daily basis.

China claims the self-ruled island as its own, and there are ongoing worries that Beijing is preparing to use force to try and take control of Taiwan. Global leaders have warned that failure to stop Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage other countries to try similar takeovers and upend the rules-based international order in place since the end of World War II.

Milley said the group will include defense chiefs from Britain, Norway, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. (AP)

The Korea Times · September 16, 2023

9. Ukrainian leader seeks Korea's reconstruction assistance in nuclear energy, resources, defense industry

To recall the rebuilding of South Korea in the 1950s and 1960s after Korea and now look at the types of contribution Korea can make to rebuilding Ukraine confirms that Korea has become a Global Pivotal State. Remember that the Republic of Korea is the only OECD nation to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation. Korea has been and will continue to pay it forward.

Ukrainian leader seeks Korea's reconstruction assistance in nuclear energy, resources, defense industry

The Korea Times · September 16, 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, shakes hands with South Korean Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong during a meeting in Kyiv, Sept. 13, in this photo provided by the ministry. Yonhap

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has requested Korea's cooperation in nuclear power, res development and the defense industry as part of reconstruction efforts of the war-ravaged country, Seoul officials said Saturday.

A delegation of government officials and business representatives who visited Kyiv this week to discuss South Korea's potential involvement in reconstruction projects, estimated to be worth around 1,200 trillion won ($902 billion), returned home Saturday morning.

During a meeting with them Wednesday, Zelenskyy called for cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, particularly expressing interest in Korea's expertise in large-scale atomic power technology, the delegation said.

Zelenskyy also expressed hopes for Korea's assistance in solar power generation technology and the development and expansion of oil-refining facilities, the members added.

"President Zelenskyy seemed to envision a partnership between Ukraine and Korea in the energy sector, with a focus on the European Union market," a member of the delegation said.

Zelenskyy also proposed a joint effort in mining lithium, a vital component of rechargeable batteries, as Ukraine possesses substantial deposits in its eastern region.

In the realm of defense, Zelenskyy suggested combining Korean defense manufacturing technology with Ukraine's intelligence on Russia to create advanced weaponry that could be exported to European countries, the delegation said.

In addition, the president expressed hopes for Korea's involvement in various other sectors, including automobile manufacturing, dam restoration and the construction of a high-speed railway line connecting Kyiv and Warsaw, Poland.

During the meeting, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong, who led the delegation, reaffirmed Korea's commitment to actively supporting Ukraine's reconstruction efforts.

He said the high-speed railway project could move forward promptly and that both the Korean government and businesses were eager to collaborate on nuclear energy, lithium extraction, automobiles and various construction projects, according to delegates.

Korea plans to dispatch a second economic delegation, led by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, to Kyiv later this year. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · September 16, 2023

10. [INTERVIEW] Cooperation in defense redefines Korea-Poland relations, says ambassador

A lot of detail about the Korea-Poland relationship. Another illustration of Korea as a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.

[INTERVIEW] Cooperation in defense redefines Korea-Poland relations, says ambassador

The Korea Times · September 16, 2023

Ambassador of Poland to Korea Piotr Ostaszewski speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at the embassy in central Seoul, Aug. 29. Korea Times photo

by Choi Won-sukBy Kwon Mee-yoo

In a climate of increasing global uncertainties, the diplomatic relationship between Korea and Poland is flourishing, particularly in the realm of defense and arms cooperation.

Recent high-level visits and strategic agreements have cemented this alliance, with Poland's acquisition of Korean-made FA-50GF fighter planes serving as a notable symbol of the deepening ties. As both nations navigate complex regional and international landscapes, their strengthened partnership in defense signifies a mutual commitment to long-term security and stability.

"I think it is my luck in my life that (as an ambassador) I am in the best place at the right moment," Polish Ambassador to Korea Piotr Ostaszewski said during an interview with The Korea Times, Aug. 29.

His remark captures the timing of a Korea-Poland relationship that's not just flourishing, but literally "armed" for success.

Before stepping into the diplomatic arena, Ostaszewski was an academic with a focus on international relations in contemporary Asia. A strong advocate for Korean studies, he served as a visiting professor at Kyungpook National University in Daegu from 2008 to 2012 and at Seoul National University in 2015.

As he nears his sixth year as ambassador since taking on the role in September 2017, Ostaszewski has witnessed and contributed to the blossoming ties between Korea and Poland. This period of diplomatic relations reached a milestone in 2019 in time for their 30th anniversary, and has since escalated to unprecedented levels of collaboration in the defense and energy sectors.

This transition from academia to diplomacy has been, for him, a deeply rewarding experience.

"One of the best things is that you can match theory with practice," Ostaszewski said, emphasizing that he sees the diplomatic post as an extension of his academic career in international relations.

"(Becoming an ambassador) is not just an accident in my life. I am fully satisfied now as I wrote books and practiced many issues and now I can present this to the public as part of my job."

Polish Ambassador to Korea Piotr Ostaszewski, third from left, poses in front of the first K9 self-propelled howitzer to be exported to Poland at Hanwha Aerospace plant in Changwon, South Gyeongsang Province, Oct. 19, 2022. Courtesy of Hanwha Aerospace

Long-term defense partner

The defense sector stands as a cornerstone in the Korea-Poland partnership, particularly as Poland allocates roughly 4 percent of its GDP to defense ― making it the highest level within NATO. This heightened focus on defense comes in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Poland is keen on bolstering its military power to fend off any prospective threats.

Ostaszewski noted that the acquisition of military equipment is not a short-term task but a long-term strategic move.

He cited the purchase of about 1,000 K2 tanks from Korea, which is not a simple transaction. "It's not like buying cookies. It's a long-term commitment and transfer of technology is also important," he said.

He noted that the decision to import weaponry from Korea was not made lightly, especially given the geopolitical tensions and the war in the region. The selection process involved many competitors and Korea was deemed most suitable for Poland's needs, according to the ambassador.

In October 2022, Ostaszewski was present at the delivery ceremony for Poland's first batch of K9 self-propelled howitzers and K2 tanks and he attended a similar event for FA-50GF fighter planes in June this year.

He found these events to be some of the most important ceremonies he has attended, particularly because it involved not just signing paperwork, but actually "touching the product."

"First, you have negotiations and sign MOUs, but if you are lucky enough and participate in many stages, you touch the product ― something not only on the paper," the ambassador said.

"Seeing the tanks and planes, which have been produced in Korea, but have my flag, it came real. It is something you see when a new chapter opens."

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak listen to explanations of Korea Aerospace Industries CEO Kang Goo-young on Korea's FA-50, KF-21 and Light Armed Helicopter (LAH) during the International Defence Industry Exhibition (MSPO) in Kielce, Poland, Sept. 6. Courtesy of KAI

He stressed that hardware alone isn't sufficient for military exercises and training operators involves a complex and specialized set of knowledge and resources. According to the ambassador, eight Polish pilots visited Korea to receive training from the Korean Air Force.

"Training is very important ... It's not like with a mobile phone, hit some buttons," Ostaszewski said.

"To train a pilot for a modern fighter plane, fully packed with computers, it takes about over a year. Training a pilot for such a sophisticated equipment could be comparable to a division (of soldiers) before the World War II," he added, emphasizing the importance of continued cooperation after initial arms exports from Korea to Poland.

After importing the 12 initial FA-50GF aircrafts, Poland plans to bring 36 more FA-50PL planes, an upgraded version tailored for Poland from 2025 to 2028. The first batch of tanks and fighter planes were produced in Korea and delivered to Poland, but part of the remaining deal would be produced both in Korea and Poland.

Poland currently holds the top spot for Korean business interests in Central Europe, spans across various industries involving more than 400 Korean companies, including major conglomerates and their suppliers.

Ostaszewski emphasized that Poland is not just a recipient of Korean investment, but a strategic partner that offers a gateway into the broader European Union market.

"Poland offers very good conditions for business and serves as a pathway into the European Union market," he said.

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Polish President Andrzej Duda after a summit and joint press conference at the presidential palace in Warsaw, Poland, July 13. Korea Times photo by Seo Jae-hoon

High-level visits

Ostaszewski reflected on the multifaceted nature of his role.

"Every job assumes responsibility. This is not just a job ― it's a representation," the ambassador said.

His tenure, marked by high-level visits and burgeoning bilateral ties in defense, energy and business, stands as a testament to the dynamic and evolving relationship between Korea and Poland.

Among those, facilitating high-level visits is one of the most crucial responsibilities of an ambassador, and the pinnacle of honor for any ambassador is to coordinate a visit by the head of state from their home country to the country where they are stationed, or vice versa.

Polish President Andrzej Duda paid a visit to Korea in February 2018 under the previous Moon Jae-in administration and most recently, Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met with Duda in Poland this July as part of his European tour.

During their meeting, the two presidents stated their commitment to enhancing cooperation in defense and energy as well as in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. The Korean delegation also signed 33 MOUs with Polish counterparts during a business forum attended by the two presidents.

The Polish president had scheduled a comprehensive return visit to Korea for August, with an itinerary that included stops in the cities of Busan and Gwangju, as well as a visit to Saemangeum, the site of the 25th World Scout Jamboree.

The much-anticipated visit was unfortunately canceled at the last minute.

Ambassador Ostaszewski, who had been diligently preparing for the presidential trip in each city, expressed disappointment over the sudden change of plans. He attributed the cancellation to unpredictability of life, specifically citing a typhoon that struck Korea on the planned dates of the visit.

Despite the cancellation, he remains optimistic and resilient in the face of challenges.

"This role has so many challenges that you have to manage. This is one of the best checks of your capabilities," he said.

His deep sense of connection to Korea, a country he has known and engaged with for years, adds a personal layer to his diplomatic endeavors.

"It's a part of my life. And it's indeed something that I'm very satisfied to not just represent my country, but to represent my country in the country I've known very well," he said.

The Korea Times · September 16, 2023

11. Chinese police arrest defector remittance broker in Jilin Province

Another indication of how money and information get into north Korea through China.

Excerpts;

“The Chinese police don’t care that people in China are sending money into North Korea, but they treat those who receive money from South Korea [to then send into North Korea] as major criminals,” the source said. “Nowadays, remittance brokers who receive money from South Korea can’t even pay fines to get out of jail. That’s why the man isn’t likely to be freed even with the help of his Chinese family.”

Rumors have begun circulating recently that remittance brokers who receive money from South Korea face a high chance of deportation to North Korea if caught by the police, the source said.

“Some defectors caught by police are being coaxed into sharing information about other defectors they know, which has led to further arrests. The police are using various means to get an accurate picture of defectors’ activities and transactions.

“After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, defector remittance brokers were able to make at least some money in China, but opportunities to earn anything nowadays are drying up with the police cracking down on remittance brokers. Ultimately, defectors here have little choice but to lock themselves up in their homes.”

Chinese police arrest defector remittance broker in Jilin Province

Rumors have begun circulating recently that remittance brokers who receive money from South Korea face deportation to North Korea if caught by the police, a source told Daily NK

By Lee Chae Un - 2023.09.15 5:00pm

dailynk.com

Chinese police arrest defector remittance broker in Jilin Province | Daily NK English

FILE PHOTO: A detention facility in Jilin Province. (Daily NK)

Earlier this month, Chinese police in Jilin Province arrested a North Korean defector who had been working as a remittance broker in the area, a source in China told Daily NK on Wednesday.

While most defectors have difficulty earning money due to the lack of government identification, this man had earned a fair amount of money through his work as a broker, the source said.

The man’s arrest came after another defector was arrested in April on charges of being involved in human trafficking several years ago. Police told the defector that he could get a reduced sentence if he told them about other defectors involved in human trafficking or working as remittance brokers. The defector ended up telling the police about three other defectors, including the man in Jilin Province.

The Jilin Province man and the other two defectors were unaware that the police were looking for them when officers suddenly raided their homes and dragged them off. In fact, just before he was arrested, the remittance broker had received money from a defector in South Korea to send into North Korea.

“The Chinese police don’t care that people in China are sending money into North Korea, but they treat those who receive money from South Korea [to then send into North Korea] as major criminals,” the source said. “Nowadays, remittance brokers who receive money from South Korea can’t even pay fines to get out of jail. That’s why the man isn’t likely to be freed even with the help of his Chinese family.”

Rumors have begun circulating recently that remittance brokers who receive money from South Korea face a high chance of deportation to North Korea if caught by the police, the source said.

“Some defectors caught by police are being coaxed into sharing information about other defectors they know, which has led to further arrests. The police are using various means to get an accurate picture of defectors’ activities and transactions.

“After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, defector remittance brokers were able to make at least some money in China, but opportunities to earn anything nowadays are drying up with the police cracking down on remittance brokers. Ultimately, defectors here have little choice but to lock themselves up in their homes.”

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Lee Chae Un

Lee Chae Un is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. She can be reached at dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

12. Failure to Launch: The Problem With the Putin-Kim Strategy

So the threesome of convenience will be a failure to launch.

I am with Dr. Cronin. While troubling and we must be cautiously wary, in the end these actions are a result of failed strategies of members of the axis of authoritarians that will lead to further failed strategies.

We should continue to compare the "threesome of convenience" (Xi-Kim-Putin) with "JAROKUS" (Japan-ROK-US). The threesome relationship is purely transactional and not built on trust and the only shared values are the sustainment and spread of authoritarianism amd the shared interests is the upending of the rules based international order and the division of US alliances. On The other hand the strength of JAROKUS rests on trust, shared interests, shared values, protection of the rules based international order, all of which lead to a superior military capability to defend their interests.

Conclusion:

By dealing with China as a vital part of a global shifting economy, minding U.S. and allied military capabilities, and keeping a close watch on an evolving Russian-North Korean partnership, the summit in the Far East will, in time, come to represent just another failure on the Moscow-Pyongyang launchpad.

Failure to Launch: The Problem With the Putin-Kim Strategy

Published 09/15/23 06:00 AM ET

Patrick M. Cronin

themessenger.com · September 15, 2023

A Far Eastern Russian spaceport is an unlikely venue to win the war in Ukraine or tip the balance of power on the Korean peninsula. Yet that is what Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un had in mind this week when they pledged to meet each other’s acute security needs.

The heavily armored train that lumbered north across the 11-mile-wide North Korean-Russian border into Primorsky Krai, hundreds of miles past Vladivostok to Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur Oblast, showcased two dictators determined to get their way through military dominance.

While the staged theater highlighted potential new military threats, it also lifted the veil on failing military-first strategies that prize guns over butter. The least convincing of all were Putin’s and Kim’s renewed bonds of solidarity.

Putin’s survival and legacy depend on winning a war he recklessly escalated in February of 2022. He met with Kim to enlist him as de facto arms minister, capable of churning out millions of rounds of artillery and rockets that could extend the war in Ukraine.

By threatening to help North Korea pose a more credible nuclear threat in Asia, Putin hopes he can divert American attention exclusively to the Far East. But this is less a carefully calculated plan than an implausible ploy to buy time and see what happens.

Villains have values, too. But this was a transactional encounter at the launch pad for Soyuz rockets. It was not a unified, values-based alliance in which each side believed that each would fight to protect their “anti-imperialist” brothers. No, it was a shabby little deal in which North Korean arms were meant to forestall Russian defeat in Ukraine and provide time to convince Ukraine and its backers to quit fighting. Russian space tech and know-how are intended to boost Kim’s need for surveillance as he continues to field an all-azimuth nuclear arsenal designed to deter attack and coerce concessions.

Other aspects of the relationship may reveal themselves to go even deeper. For instance, should Putin be inclined, Moscow could assist Pyongyang further with a potential effort to field a triad of land-, sea- and air-based nuclear platforms. Kim has made serious strides toward fielding a credible land-based nuclear threat. He also earlier this month launched a converted sea-based nuclear deterrent based on an old Russian submarine design. Kim might think Putin would transfer some modern aircraft, some of which also might be converted to carry nuclear-tipped missiles. That undoubtedly would bolster Pyongyang’s nuclear status.

In promising to make Russia the number one priority of North Korea, Kim certainly made his pitch for Putin’s military support.

Feeling immune from additional sanctions, Kim is ready to turn North Korea into an arsenal for autocracy. Food and fuel could sweeten the relationship, although Kim’s internal problems were carefully kept from his train trek to the Russian Far East.

The Russian Far East is known for its desolate and punishing environment, a perfect backdrop for highlighting the resilience of two revisionist powers. In the alternate universe of strongmen, sovereignty is whatever you can get away with. Their version of reality resembles a rules-based order only because those who govern with an iron fist make up the rules. Law is for weaklings.

Putin’s belief that he is a latter-day Peter the Great who can outlast his opponents in Ukraine and Kim’s notion that North Korea is a great nuclear power that can frighten its neighbors into submission represent narrow, one-dimensional strategies destined to fail. Talk of new rail connections is a reminder of past unfulfilled promises.

Law is not for weaklings. Law is the luxury of civilizations that can maintain peace in the face of malevolent forces. Those forces appeared inflated after the summit in the Russian Far East, but they are unlikely to bend the arc of history toward a new era of territorial wars and successful family dynasties.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi will soon head to Russia. We can expect superficial support from Beijing because trilateral cooperation gives all three powers leverage over their democratic rivals. Beneath the surface, however, the gaping differences in strategic objectives will be apparent. Even if Xi Jinping insists on privileging political repression over economic reform, China is too big a part of the global economy to neglect its fundamental interests.

So, while the United States and its allies continue to seek more stable economic relations with China, they should further deepen strategic coordination and improve their military capabilities — nationally, bilaterally, and trilaterally with Japan. They also must balance keeping the peace in Asia with robust support to help Ukraine keep making gains against Russian occupation forces. Finally, they should continue investing heavily in long-term technological advantages to grow the economic and military gap between prosperous, democratic allies and revisionist powers over-invested in arms.

By dealing with China as a vital part of a global shifting economy, minding U.S. and allied military capabilities, and keeping a close watch on an evolving Russian-North Korean partnership, the summit in the Far East will, in time, come to represent just another failure on the Moscow-Pyongyang launchpad.

Patrick M. Cronin, D.Phil., is the Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute and Scholar in Residence at Carnegie Mellon University.

themessenger.com · September 15, 2023

13. What Putin and Kim Want From Each Other

Transactional relationships are inherently weak.

I agree with Ankit that we need a profound relook at US strategy but I think it will be impossible to "incentivise Kim to look away from Moscow."

As I have often written: Although denuclearization of the north remains a worthy goal, it must be viewed as aspirational as long as the Kim family regime remains in power. The conventional wisdom has always been that denuclearization must come first and then unification will follow and that there should be no discussion of human rights out of fear that it would prevent Kim Jong Un from making a denuclearization agreement. Today even a blind man can read the tea leaves and know that Kim Jong Un will not denuclearize despite the fact that his policies have been an abject failure. His political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies completely failed in 2022 because Presidents Yoon and Biden, like their predecessors, refused to make the political and economic concessions he demanded just to come to the negotiating table: namely to remove sanctions. It is time for the U.S and the ROK/U.S. alliance to execute a political warfare strategy that flips the conventional wisdom and seeks unification first and then denuclearization. Everyone must come to the understanding that the only way to end the nuclear program and the human rights abuses is through unification of the Korean peninsula. The ROK and U.S. must continue to maintain the highest state of military readiness to deter war and then adopt a human rights upfront approach, a comprehensive and sophisticated information and influence activities campaign, and focus all efforts on the pursuit of a free and unified Korea- ultimately a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

Excerpts:

This should prompt the most profound rethink of the U.S. approach toward North Korea in decades. While the prospect of diplomacy appears dim now, Washington should recall that it was largely the same transactional approach to navigating its relations with great powers that once led Kim to board his train to Hanoi to meet former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Incentivizing Kim to look away from Moscow will be difficult, but Washington should be ready to use every tool in its diplomatic kit to give North Korea a reason to at least contemplate the possibility of diplomacy once again. Last year, Kim complained that though the United States has called for open-ended negotiations and professed its lack of hostility toward Pyongyang, the Biden administration’s behavior—in particular, many of the steps it has taken to reassure South Korea—has given North Korea “no reason” to believe it.

Washington should also recall that what Kim sought when he went to Hanoi was a deal that would see sectoral sanctions relaxed on his economy in exchange for limited nuclear concessions. Using the prospect of sanctions relief—with some snapback provision to guard against North Korean noncompliance as an inducement—may continue to have value. Should Washington fail to act soon, however, the salience that Kim once gave to seeking sanctions relief in a negotiation may wane considerably. That’s especially so now, given Russia’s willingness to do business.

Finally, the United States and its allies continue to have an interest in reducing the risk that North Korea’s increasingly capable nuclear arsenal might be used in a crisis or conflict. Indicating to Kim that the premise of a future negotiation can focus on nuclear risk reduction or restraint could create a reason for North Korea to test the waters diplomatically.

What Putin and Kim Want From Each Other

Their recent summit showcased just how transactional the Russia-North Korea relationship has become.

By Ankit Panda, the Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Foreign Policy · by Ankit Panda · September 15, 2023

After more than three years of intense, self-imposed isolationism amid the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ventured outside of his country’s borders this week. Kim headed for the Russian far east—on the same armored train once favored by his father—to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was Kim’s first meeting with a foreign leader since 2019. Playing host allowed the Russian president to project an image of relative diplomatic normality amid his own diplomatic isolation, crystallized by his absences from the recent G-20 and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summits.

Putin greeted Kim informally in Russian, displaying a familiarity with the North Korean leader, whom he first met in 2019. Kim, for his part, professed his country’s fealty to Moscow’s “sacred struggle” against Ukraine. While both aimed to project solidarity against a global order dominated by the West, their strategic convergence actually stems from a more transactional logic spurred on by difficult circumstances for both leaders. Simply put, each man has much to offer the other.

Kim and Putin have held their cards close to their chests about what exactly they’ve sought from each other. Unlike typical leader-level summitry, the two chose not to issue any kind of joint statement hinting at what they may have discussed or agreed to. The optics of their meeting, however, along with other recent high-level diplomatic engagements between the two countries, were much more overt.

In the lead-up to Kim’s trip, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, flanked by other senior defense officials involved in the procurement of weaponry, toured an exhibition hall in Pyongyang that was plush with North Korean weaponry. The fact that North Korea remains under a comprehensive United Nations Security Council-backed arms embargo that Russia has long supported seems to not be much of a hindrance.

The choice of venue for the Kim-Putin summit was equally unsubtle. For starters, the two leaders chose to meet at Russia’s relatively new Vostochny Cosmodrome: an eastern spaceport designed to reduce Moscow’s reliance on Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome. Putin said that the decision to meet there was an acknowledgement of Kim’s “great interest in rocket technology,” noting the North Korean leader’s push to “develop space … that’s why we came to Vostochny Cosmodrome,” Russian state media reported. Indeed, North Korea is trying to develop a mature space program, but as its two failed satellite launch attempts this year indicate, it has room to grow. Russian assistance with space launch technology could go a long way in abetting Pyongyang’s military modernization ambitions, which include the development of military reconnaissance satellites.

But there are other perks that Pyongyang seeks from its full-throated support of Russian interests. Following his meeting with Putin, Kim’s train carried on toward Komsomolsk-on-Amur, where he visited a factory producing Su-35 and Su-57 fighter jets—systems far more advanced than the obsolete airframes currently available to the Korean People’s Air Force. Even short of procuring new fighters, North Korea could benefit from a steady supply of spare parts and components to shore up its existing fleet of Soviet-origin military aircraft, significantly improving their airworthiness and reliability.

Kim will also likely seek access to raw and composite materials sourced from Russian suppliers that could supercharge his indigenous missile programs. North Korea has long relied on organized criminal networks to source materials such as Kevlar and aramid fibers from Russia for use in its advanced missiles. Active Russian facilitation of such transfers—while a violation of United Nations sanctions—would assist in fulfilling Pyongyang’s military ambitions. North Korea could also seek covert technical assistance. Putin’s contempt for international rules and norms may make forms of technical cooperation that were previously unthinkable between the two countries increasingly feasible.

Beyond hardware, Kim likely approached Putin about the prospect of food aid, which could address severe nutritional challenges that have intensified in North Korea through the pandemic. Such assistance would not violate sanctions, but nevertheless help Kim address food shortages that he has openly acknowledged in recent years even as he has continued to spend lavishly on nuclear modernization. Separated by only their own land border and territorial waters, North Korea and Russia can conduct large-scale transfers with ease.

Russia can also offer its diplomatic support for North Korean goals. Pyongyang has already benefited considerably from Russian—and Chinese—shelter at the United Nations Security Council. Since the collapse of the last round of U.S.-North Korea diplomacy in 2019, both Beijing and Moscow have been unequivocal in their rejection of any new sanctions or even formal censure at the United Nations—a far cry from their acquiescence to exceptionally broad, sectoral sanctions in 2016 and 2017. Last year, neither state was willing to even support a presidential statement condemning Pyongyang’s testing of intercontinental-range ballistic missiles.

Moscow’s interest in the latest meeting, meanwhile, likely lies in North Korea’s substantial inventory of artillery shells and rocket artillery munitions that are reverse-compatible with Soviet-era launchers in use by Russian armed forces. U.S. intelligence sources, cited by the New York Times last September, suggested such transfers had already taken place, but this was likely premature. Instead, the recent spate of bilateral diplomacy between North Korea and Russia appears to have been designed to facilitate such a transfer, which a White House spokesperson said was “actively advancing” after Shoigu’s visit.

Despite their attempts to project a shared ideological front at the summit, Putin and Kim may not be willing to fully yield to the other’s demands—at least, not yet. North Korea, for instance, may seek access to sensitive Russian naval nuclear propulsion technology, which Moscow is unlikely to part with for little in return. Similarly, Russia may seek to acquire more advanced North Korean missiles for possible use in Ukraine, but Kim may prefer to keep these for his own national defense and deterrence needs.

While their meeting will prompt talk of a new authoritarian axis in northeast Asia, there’s little to suggest that the recent surge in this relationship has foundations deeper than each country’s immediate strategic interests. Moscow may seek to revise the global order in its favor, but enlisting North Korea as a partner in that endeavor will be of limited use.

For North Korea, meanwhile, the desire to build deeper ties with Russia predates both the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; when Kim met Putin for the first time in the Russian far east in 2019, it was shortly after the last failed U.S.-North Korea summit. Later that year, Kim hinted that he’d follow a “new way” when it came to his country’s strategic approach. Better ties with Russia are one part of this new way, it would seem. Current geopolitical dynamics, including Russia’s isolation and greater willingness to flaunt global norms, have presented Pyongyang with an immense opportunity.

While there is much that is striking about Kim’s visit, what is particularly notable is that he chose Russia over China for his first overseas visit since 2019. In 2018, Kim chose to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before he eventually turned toward summit diplomacy with South Korea and the United States. At their very first meeting, according to the Chinese readout, Xi first and foremost emphasized the importance of “high-level exchanges” between the two countries and said he was “willing to keep frequent contacts with Comrade Chairman.”

Kim’s choice, however, doesn’t indicate a major rift between Beijing and Pyongyang: He and Xi exchanged letters during the pandemic, and a senior Chinese official attended a military parade in the country recently. However, it does likely suggest that Kim assesses that he will find a more willing patron, at least for the short term, in the increasingly desperate Putin, rather than Xi. While Beijing and Pyongyang have both been supportive of Putin’s war effort, only the latter appears willing to provide munitions at scale.

North Korean support for Russia’s campaign against Ukraine will likely fail to prove transformative on the battlefield. A shortage of conventional munitions is hardly the factor standing between Russia and swift victory. The most important short-term effect of Pyongyang’s expected supply of munitions may be that Russia will be able to backfill and sustain its own stockpiles in the event of a future conflict with NATO.

For the United States, the prospect of closer Kim-Putin ties is bad news, but not apocalyptic. Even if Putin and Kim had little interest in each other, both leaders would independently continue to pose a serious challenge to U.S. interests.

Perhaps no consequence of this relationship will be more significant than its implications for the status quo diplomatic approach to North Korea’s continued possession of nuclear weapons. Open and flagrant Russian support for North Korea in the face of the existing U.N. sanctions regime is going to make what was already a fanciful short-term objective—denuclearization—impossible.

This should prompt the most profound rethink of the U.S. approach toward North Korea in decades. While the prospect of diplomacy appears dim now, Washington should recall that it was largely the same transactional approach to navigating its relations with great powers that once led Kim to board his train to Hanoi to meet former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Incentivizing Kim to look away from Moscow will be difficult, but Washington should be ready to use every tool in its diplomatic kit to give North Korea a reason to at least contemplate the possibility of diplomacy once again. Last year, Kim complained that though the United States has called for open-ended negotiations and professed its lack of hostility toward Pyongyang, the Biden administration’s behavior—in particular, many of the steps it has taken to reassure South Korea—has given North Korea “no reason” to believe it.

Washington should also recall that what Kim sought when he went to Hanoi was a deal that would see sectoral sanctions relaxed on his economy in exchange for limited nuclear concessions. Using the prospect of sanctions relief—with some snapback provision to guard against North Korean noncompliance as an inducement—may continue to have value. Should Washington fail to act soon, however, the salience that Kim once gave to seeking sanctions relief in a negotiation may wane considerably. That’s especially so now, given Russia’s willingness to do business.

Finally, the United States and its allies continue to have an interest in reducing the risk that North Korea’s increasingly capable nuclear arsenal might be used in a crisis or conflict. Indicating to Kim that the premise of a future negotiation can focus on nuclear risk reduction or restraint could create a reason for North Korea to test the waters diplomatically.

Foreign Policy · by Ankit Panda · September 15, 2023

14. South Korea’s Interest in Nuclear Weapons Hasn’t Gone Away—It’s Just On Hold

The current activities of Kim and Putin as well as the individual and collective actions of the "threesome of convenience" (Xi-Kim-Putin) certainly influence some Koreans to seek their own nuclear weapons.

We should consider Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy. Although counterintuitive Kim likely wants South Korea to demand nuclear weapons because that will cause friction in the ROK/US alliance and harm South Korea's reputation in the international community, It will also create friction with Japan. One of the major lines of effort of the Kim family regime's strategy is to drive a wedge in the US alliance and reaken relationships with the ultimate objective to drive US troops off the Korean peninsula. We must factor this into our strategic calculations.

South Korea should be emphasizing that it chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power, a Global Pivotal State, a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy that seeks to protect and influence the rules based international order.

We need to recognize Kim's strategy, understand it, EXPOSE it, and then attack with a superior form of political warfare.

South Korea’s Interest in Nuclear Weapons Hasn’t Gone Away—It’s Just On Hold

Despite recent pact with the U.S., many of the country’s leaders favor homegrown nuclear option

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/south-koreas-interest-in-nuclear-weapons-hasnt-gone-awayits-just-on-hold-7c91cf8a?page=1

By Dasl Yoon

and Timothy W. Martin

Updated Sept. 16, 2023 12:13 am ET

‘Only nukes can counter nukes,’ Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon said in an interview. PHOTO: SOO-HYEON KIM/REUTERS

SEOUL—South Korea swore off nuclear weapons in a recent pact with the U.S., but the deal may have just put a temporary pause on the debate in Seoul.

South Korea is surrounded by nuclear powers and many among the public and in the elite political class are still in favor of the country developing its own nuclear weapons.

President Yoon Suk Yeol signed the pact, but one of the most prominent voices supporting nuclear weapons for South Korea comes from his own ruling partly: Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

“Only nukes can counter nukes,” Oh said in an interview at his City Hall office.

Oh, 62, said the regional security threat has risen so high that it would justify triggering Article X of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which South Korea signed nearly five decades ago.

Despite U.S. assurances of protection, South Korea is surrounded by three nuclear-armed nations—China, Russia and North Korea. Those countries could pursue joint naval drills, Seoul’s spy agency has told lawmakers. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Russia recently, discussing ways to bolster ties and thwart the U.S.-led global order.

Many South Koreans want nukes

The open discourse by South Korea’s political elite crosses the partisan spectrum and has emerged anew in recent years. That, in large part, reflects broad public backing for a nuclear program: a strong majority of South Koreans have supported the notion for a decade.

Oh, a former attorney who began his second stint as mayor in 2021, isn’t alone among leading South Korean politicians calling for South Korean armament. They argue that relying on Washington’s nuclear umbrella isn’t enough.

Conservative lawmakers gathered at a conference earlier this year and discussed the prospect of South Korea’s nuclear development. Tae Yong-ho, a former senior North Korean diplomat who defected and is now a lawmaker in South Korea, said nuclear anxieties haven’t gone away and suggested developing nuclear weapons as a way to reduce the Kim regime’s threat. Ruling party leader Kim Gi-hyeon has consistently said acquiring nuclear weapons is the only way to preserve peace on the Korean Peninsula.

The party’s interest in the topic had risen after Yoon, who took office last year, said in January that South Korea could develop its own nuclear weapons or ask the U.S. to redeploy them, rattling Washington officials. He dialed back the remarks a week later.

Three months later, Yoon met President Biden at the White House, promising not to pursue a nuclear bomb. In exchange, Seoul won more frequent visits to the region by U.S. nuclear assets meant to deter Pyongyang, and greater consultation on potential American nuclear use in the event of a Kim regime attack.

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol and President Biden met at the White House in April. PHOTO: LEAH MILLIS/REUTERS

Following the leader-to-leader pact called the “Washington Declaration,” South Korean support for nuclear armament dropped to 60% this year, about a nine-percentage-point fall from the prior year, according to a recent survey by Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank in Seoul. Trust in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, which includes South Korea, rose modestly to 75%.

A majority of both conservatives and liberals back South Korea going nuclear, with widespread acknowledgment that doing so won’t convince North Korea to give up their weapons, according to polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

“To dismiss this as a fringe movement is a pretty serious mistake,” said Karl Friedhoff, one of the report’s authors and a fellow in public opinion and Asia policy at the organization.

Support for nuclear armament in South Korea won’t go away, especially as the nuclear arsenals of Russia, China and North Korea raise concerns about South Korea’s ability to defend itself, said Shin Yul, a professor of political science at South Korea’s Myongji University.

“The recent statements with Washington temporarily put out the fire, but as long as South Koreans fear North Korea’s growing nuclear threat, politicians will continue to call for nuclear armament,” Shin said.

An image of a missile test released by North Korea earlier this year. PHOTO: STR/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

South Korea has the technology

Seoul has roughly 10 million people, representing about one-fifth of South Korea’s total population. Oh, as Seoul mayor, is seen as the country’s second most powerful elected official. He is the only local government official given ministerial-level treatment. He can participate in presidential cabinet meetings, meaning he has a direct channel to the president.

Oh said it was time for South Korea to accept that North Korea is a nuclear power. In 1991, following the end of the Cold War, the U.S. removed tactical nuclear weapons it had deployed in South Korea. Despite the “blood alliance” with the U.S., trusting that Washington will protect Seoul under any circumstances isn’t enough, Oh said.

“If the U.S. stationed nuclear weapons here, we wouldn’t have to talk about developing our own nuclear weapons,” he said.

Seoul has the technology, funds and nuclear power plants that can be used toward building nuclear weapons, Oh argued. Within a year, South Korea could develop nuclear weapons just like China or Russia, he said.

Nuclear experts echo Oh’s assessment that South Korea has the technology, facilities and funds to produce highly enriched uranium and plutonium needed for nuclear weapons. It would take several months to produce fissile material, and about a year to make one or two nuclear bombs if South Korea were to focus its resources on nuclear development, according to Kang Jung-min, the former chairman of South Korea’s Nuclear Safety and Security Commission.

But this timeline doesn’t factor in potential sanctions on uranium imports or the controversial process of determining where the nuclear-testing facilities would be located, nuclear experts say. In response to a nuclear-pursuant South Korea, the U.S. could terminate defense sales and military assistance as well.

“South Korea has the technology to develop nuclear weapons, but nuclear armament will lead to severe economic sanctions and raises the risk of nuclear war,” Kang said.

Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com and Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com

15. Analysis | Kim and Putin meeting show just how much the leaders need each other

Analysis | Kim and Putin meeting show just how much the leaders need each other

The Washington Post · by Michelle Ye Hee Lee · September 14, 2023

SEOUL — Russian President Vladimir Putin is notorious for making world leaders wait for scheduled meetings. Yet on Wednesday, Putin showed up 30 minutes early to greet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

Whether it was intentional, Putin’s unusual punctuality highlighted his keen interest in meeting with Kim — one of Putin’s only friends in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The feeling was clearly reciprocated by the days-long train journey taken by his Korean counterpart in his first trip abroad in four years.

The meeting of the two leaders — who have become pariahs in the West — marks just how much they need each other at this time.

For Putin, it is mostly a short-term need for the Soviet-era ammunition to prosecute his war in Ukraine; Kim’s needs are more long term, including technical assistance to develop weapons, a space program and boost his economy.

Kim was greeted with diplomatic pomp and hospitality. Putin guided him on a tour of a key Russian spaceport, showing off its technology, before they dined on duck salad and crab dumplings. Putin even gave Kim, a car enthusiast, a lift in his presidential limousine.

Neither leader announced an arms deal after their summit, and may never do so publicly. The Kremlin said the two countries’ cooperation on certain “sensitive” areas should not be made public, and there was no joint communiqué or news conference.

“One way or other, Putin’s actions show that he takes Kim very seriously,” said Lee Jai-chun, a former South Korean ambassador to Russia. “The special treatment from Putin is a boost for Kim, the leader of one of the poorest countries in the world.”

Kim’s sudden strong hand

With the Russian war on Ukraine dragging on, Putin is running low on ammunition and world leaders backing his violation of recognized international borders. In Kim, he can find both.

North Korea is believed to have a large stockpile of dated artillery shells and rockets that would be compatible with Russian weapons systems. North Korea also has a production capacity that could help Russia maintain its high ammunition burn rate.

That means Kim suddenly has a rare bargaining chip. And it’s a reversal in their relationship, given North Korea’s history of military dependence on the Soviet Union, including in its Soviet-supported invasion of the South that sparked the 1950-53 Korean War. The war ended in a cease-fire, and both Koreas have maintained a stockpile of ammunition and weapons in case conflict resumes.

On Wednesday, Kim said he stands by “all decisions of President Putin and the Russian government.” He said they are aligned in their “fight against imperialism,” referring to confrontation with the United States and its allies.

What to know about the Kim-Putin meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to a spaceport Wednesday, saying “all topics” would be on the table. Follow our live updates.

Here’s why they are meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, located about 900 miles by road north of Vladivostok and a symbol of Moscow’s space exploration.

The two leaders are expected to discuss a possible weapons deal to bolster Russia’s fighting forces in Ukraine. Kim, armed with a rare bargaining chip, will be looking for food and other aid for his cash-strapped country. Here’s more on what they may want.

For his first known trip outside North Korea in almost four years, Kim has returned to a favored mode of transport: a luxuriously decorated, heavily armored and exceptionally slow-moving train.

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“If Kim’s eyes are on the ball and the bigger prize, it’s the potential for the two countries to get situated as the thorn in the U.S. side,” said Soo Kim, policy practice area lead at Virginia-based consulting firm LMI and a former CIA analyst.

“We read this as a sign of desperation for Kim and Putin. And yes, that may still be true, but crisis may have turned into an opportunity for Kim and Putin.”

Their relationship has long been a transactional one — and in Kim, a fellow international outcast, Putin can find an anti-American partner willing to needle the United States, experts said.

“Russia takes advantage of any person or any tool or any entity to stand up against the U.S.-led security movement,” said Wi Sung-lac, a former South Korean ambassador to Russia and former South Korean chief negotiator to the six-party nuclear negotiations. “So Kim Jong Un, despite his bad reputation, was adopted by Putin as a useful tool.”

Together, Kim and Putin are sending the message that they are willing to flout the U.S.-led sanctions for their gain, Wi said. For example, two of the North Korean officials who visited Russia — a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council — face a travel ban under U.N. sanctions.

“One of the signals that Putin and Kim Jong Un are delivering is that North Korea and Russia don’t care about international norms, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Wi said.

Kim’s long-term interests

Kim toured the Vostochny Cosmodrome with an entourage of top leaders in charge of weapons production, defense strategy and space technology — a sign that he is interested in long-term gains from his dealings with Putin, analysts say.

There is an asymmetry to current transactions between Moscow and Pyongyang, wrote Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, assistant professor at the University of Tokyo: “Russia’s benefits are more short-term with the acquisition of ammunition, while North Korea’s are more long-term with Pyongyang securing technical assistance for the research and development of space and advanced weapons technologies.”

Kim is barreling forward on a five-year military plan to boost his weaponry, which is key to securing a stronger bargaining position should he return to denuclearization talks with the United States.

Space technology, specifically the development of military reconnaissance satellites, is a top priority for Kim.

Kim’s tour of the space center with Putin, and his planned visit to Russian aviation and military facilities, suggest that cooperation between the two countries could expand into those areas.

“Satellite cooperation will be disguised as a peaceful scientific cooperation. North Korea is clearly looking for Russia’s [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] satellite technologies,” said Go Myong-hyun, a defense expert and research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

Russia could also provide tracking and information support to North Korea for its satellite launches, Go said. North Korea conducted two failed satellite launches in the past six months and has vowed to test again in October.

Putin said he spoke to Kim about the development of agriculture, about which Russia “has something to offer.” Humanitarian assistance to North Korea is not restricted by the United Nations sanctions. Putin also mentioned “interesting projects” with North Korea in transportation and logistics.

What’s next?

Putin accepted Kim’s invitation to visit Pyongyang, and they are likely to make further inroads into their bilateral relationship in the near future, analysts say.

Still, it is not clear whether Russia will actually transfer its coveted and advanced defense technology to North Korea. Even if Russia were to do so, it would take place behind closed doors to evade Western sanctions, experts say.

“If Russia had not suffered losses in the Ukraine conflict, Putin would not have reached out to Kim so desperately like now,” said Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University. “North Korea also understands that the recent advances are transactional, and Kim is seeking to secure quick wins from Russia. Among those are food, energy and fertilizers.”

Analysts say they are watching how Beijing will react to the warming relations between Pyongyang and Moscow — and whether the three countries will be working closer together. China, North Korea’s economic lifeline, shares the other two countries’ concerns about rising U.S. influence in the region and increasing security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea But an open endorsement of North Korean arms sales to Russia would undercut Beijing claims of neutrality in the war in Ukraine.

In an apparent attempt to distance itself from the summit, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday called Kim’s visit “something between their two countries” even as it underscored that Beijing’s ties with Pyongyang are making progress.

“Beijing doesn’t want to get into some kind of new northern triangle because a new Cold War is totally against China’s interests,” said Zhu Feng, dean of international studies at Nanjing University. “To see some kind of resumption of a military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang would be a bit scary for China.”

Christian Shepherd in Taipei contributed to this report.

The Washington Post · by Michelle Ye Hee Lee · September 14, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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