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Quotes of the Day:
“Compulsive liars shouldn’t frighten you. They can harm no one, if no one listens to them. Compulsive believers, on the other hand: they should terrify you. Believers are the liars’ enablers. Their votes give the demagogue his power. Their trust turns the charlatan into the president. Their credulity ensures that the propaganda of half-calculating and half-mad fanatics has the power to change the world.
- Nick Cohen
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“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”
- H.L. Mencken
“When musicians are telling people who to vote for, I think that’s an abuse of power. You’re telling your fans not to think for themselves, just to think like you. Rock ’N Roll is about freedom and that's not freedom.”
- Alice Cooper
1. Readout of the Meeting of the United States, Japanese and Republic of Korea Trilateral National Security Advisors - The White House
2. S.Korea official: no soft response in case of N.Korea nuclear test
3. U.S., Japan, South Korea pledge resolute response to North Korea nuke test
4. KORUS drills target Washington's ‘near-peer adversary’
5. U.S. aircraft carrier Reagan due in S. Korea this month
6. Seoul, Tokyo, Washington vow to make Pyongyang ‘learn of its fault’ if it carries out nuclear test
7. North Korea’s Trading of Small Arms and Light Weapons: Open-source Information Analysis of Sanctions Implementation
8. NSC chief says Korea-Japan summit may take place at UN General Assembly
9. Japanese and South Koreans see each other more favorably, poll shows
10. Koreans, Japanese Think More Kindly of Each Other
11. US-South Korea-Japan Strengthen Joint Commitment in Face of Possible 7th North Korean Nuclear Test
12. A Three Part Plan to Enhance President Yoon’s North Korea Strategy: Toward a Free and Unified Korea (with comments)
1. Readout of the Meeting of the United States, Japanese and Republic of Korea Trilateral National Security Advisors - The White House
This short paragraph hits almost every major trilateral national security issue for the Indo Pacific and the Korean peninsula.
Readout of the Meeting of the United States, Japanese and Republic of Korea Trilateral National Security Advisors - The White House
whitehouse.gov · by The White House · September 2, 2022
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan of the United States met with National Security Secretariat Secretary General Akiba Takeo of Japan and National Security Office Director Kim Sung-han of the Republic of Korea (ROK) on September 1, 2022 at the Headquarters of the United States Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu, Hawaii to address protecting and advancing the rules based international order. They discussed their joint commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and condemned the DPRK’s continued development of its ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs, and Russian aggression in Ukraine. The United States reaffirmed its ironclad alliance commitments to both the ROK and Japan, including our commitment to extended deterrence to both countries and underscored the importance of bilateral ties and trilateral cooperation to the security and prosperity of our citizens, the region, and the world. The national security advisors discussed ways to strengthen their ties, grounded in our shared vision for the free and open Indo-Pacific.
###
whitehouse.gov · by The White House · September 2, 2022
2. S.Korea official: no soft response in case of N.Korea nuclear test
Show Kim his political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and warfighting strategies cannot be successful.
Excerpts:
"If North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear test, our three countries, together with the international community, will maximise cooperation in a way that (North Korea) realises it was a clearly wrong choice," Kim told reporters, according to Yonhap.
"We have agreed there should never be such a complacent thinking or response that North Korea has conducted just another nuclear test in addition to the six tests it did."
S.Korea official: no soft response in case of N.Korea nuclear test
news.yahoo.com · by Soo-hyang Choi
By Soo-hyang Choi
SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's national security adviser has said he and his counterparts from the United States and Japan have agreed there will be no soft response if North Korea conducts a nuclear test, Yonhap news agency reported on Friday.
Kim Sung-han made the comment after trilateral talks with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Akiba Takeo of Japan in Hawaii amid signs the North has completed preparations to conduct its first nuclear test since 2017.
"If North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear test, our three countries, together with the international community, will maximise cooperation in a way that (North Korea) realises it was a clearly wrong choice," Kim told reporters, according to Yonhap.
"We have agreed there should never be such a complacent thinking or response that North Korea has conducted just another nuclear test in addition to the six tests it did."
The isolated, nuclear-armed North has conducted missile tests at an unprecedented pace this year.
In mid-August, North Korea fired two cruise missiles from its west coast after South Korea and the United States resumed the largest field exercises in years.
Pyongyang has long denounced the exercises as a rehearsal for war.
South Korea's foreign minister has said Pyongyang will likely face stronger sanctions aimed at curbing its cyberattack capabilities, a key funding source, if it pushes ahead with another nuclear test.
During the latest talks, the three officials also agreed to cooperate on global supply chain issues, while Kim separately raised concerns over new U.S. rules on subsidies for electric vehicles, South Korea's presidential office said.
Kim said after a bilateral meeting with Sullivan the previous day that the United States has promised to review the impact of the new rules after Seoul raised concern they could hurt South Korean automakers.
Measures under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden last month, would include halting subsidies for EVs made outside North America, which could affect companies like Hyundai Motor Co and its affiliate Kia Corp.
This week's meeting marked the three officials' first gathering since South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol took office in May.
(Reporting by Soo-hyang Choi; Additional reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Richard Pullin and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
news.yahoo.com · by Soo-hyang Choi
3. U.S., Japan, South Korea pledge resolute response to North Korea nuke test
Excerpts:
The Japanese government said the three officials shared the view that coordination and cooperation are important in moving toward the denuclearization of North Korea. The three also exchanged their views and agreed to work closely together on the situations surrounding Taiwan and Ukraine, it said.
The office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the talks involving the three countries' national security advisers were the first since the Yoon administration was launched in May. In addition to North Korea issues, they discussed cooperation on cutting-edge technologies and supply chains, according to the office.
Akiba and Kim also met bilaterally on Wednesday and discussed cooperation on the North Korean issue, as well as chances of improvement in soured ties between Japan and South Korea. Kim also met with Sullivan bilaterally on the same day.
U.S., Japan, South Korea pledge resolute response to North Korea nuke test
If Pyongyang conducts 7th test, it will realize it made 'wrong decision': official
September 2, 2022 21:49 JST
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/U.S.-Japan-South-Korea-pledge-resolute-response-to-North-Korea-nuke-test?utm_source=pocket_mylist
SEOUL (Kyodo) -- U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and his Japanese and South Korean counterparts discussed North Korea on Thursday in Hawaii and agreed to take resolute steps in the event of another North Korean nuclear test.
Sullivan, Takeo Akiba and Kim Sung Han "agreed that there must not be naive thinking or reaction that North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and that (a new test) will only be one more nuclear test," Kim told reporters, according to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency.
"Should North Korea conduct its seventh nuclear test, our reaction will certainly be different from those until now," the South Korean official added, saying trilateral cooperation will be "maximized" so the North realizes conducting a seventh nuclear test was the "wrong decision."
Pyongyang is believed to have completed preparations for what would be its seventh nuclear test and first since September 2017, and there is speculation it could go ahead with it soon.
The White House said in a statement that the national security advisers "condemned the DPRK's continued development of its ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs," adding that the United States reaffirmed "our commitment to extended deterrence to both countries."
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK, is North Korea's official name.
The Japanese government said the three officials shared the view that coordination and cooperation are important in moving toward the denuclearization of North Korea. The three also exchanged their views and agreed to work closely together on the situations surrounding Taiwan and Ukraine, it said.
The office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the talks involving the three countries' national security advisers were the first since the Yoon administration was launched in May. In addition to North Korea issues, they discussed cooperation on cutting-edge technologies and supply chains, according to the office.
Akiba and Kim also met bilaterally on Wednesday and discussed cooperation on the North Korean issue, as well as chances of improvement in soured ties between Japan and South Korea. Kim also met with Sullivan bilaterally on the same day.
Later Friday, Kim, who returned from Hawaii to South Korea, told reporters at Incheon International Airport that he and Akiba have discussed a date for a future meeting of Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida but said it is too early to reveal it.
Japan's Foreign Ministry said the same day that Takehiro Funakoshi, director general of its Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, will meet with his U.S. and South Korean counterparts, Sung Kim and Kim Gunn, on Wednesday in Tokyo "to exchange views on the recent situation regarding North Korea."
4. KORUS drills target Washington's ‘near-peer adversary’
I think we have eliminated "near-peer" from the lexicon. Its use worries some Koreans who think they Korea might be drawn into a conflict with China.
KORUS drills target Washington's ‘near-peer adversary’
donga.com
Posted September. 02, 2022 08:07,
Updated September. 02, 2022 08:07
KORUS drills target Washington's ‘near-peer adversary’. September. 02, 2022 08:07. weappon@donga.com.
Deputy Commander Brandon Anderson of the Republic of Korea United States Combined Division told Reuters and CNN on the site of the Combined Joint Fires Coordination Exercise (CJFCX) on Wednesday (local time) that the exercise brings focus back to large-scale war, adding that it tests counterattacks against ‘near-peer adversaries.’ The term ‘near-peer adversary’ describes enemies that are determined and capable of fighting back against the U.S. armed forces, possibly putting their dominant position at risk. Here, China and Russia are considered potential foes.
Despite not any official confirmation made by the U.S. Department of Defense, analysts assume that this military drill may target not only North Korea but also China and Russia. Deputy Commander Anderson’s remarks were made when he explained that the CJFCX presumes an all-out war unlike the war situations in Iraq and Afghanistan. “[We] refocused on near-peer adversary,” he said. “If we're going to look at a near-peer adversary, we have to do more challenging adverse conditions.” Reuters reported that South Korean and the U.S. forces engaged in war games keeping North Korea and their near-peer adversaries in mind.
한국어
donga.com
5. U.S. aircraft carrier Reagan due in S. Korea this month
4.5 acres of sovereign US territory projected anywhere in the world..
I would just like to highlight that while everyone focuses on the large combined joint exercises such as Ulchi Freedom Shield the last two weeks in August or Key Resolve/Foal Eagle in March, training takes place in the air, on land, and at sea all year around. Readiness training takes place all throughout the year in various forms. This is how readiness is sustained. It is not just the large combined joint exercises. Those are just one element of the annual training.
Excerpt:
The Reagan is expected to stay in the country for about a week to participate in the military drill with the South Korean Navy, as well as friendly and goodwill events.
U.S. aircraft carrier Reagan due in S. Korea this month | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김보람 · September 2, 2022
SEOUL, Sept. 2 (Yonhap) -- The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), a forward-deployed aircraft carrier, will arrive at the South Korean port city of Busan later this month amid signs of a possible nuclear test by North Korea, government sources said Friday.
According to the sources, Seoul and Washington are discussing plans to conduct bilateral exercises on the East Sea after the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier arrives in Busan.
The Reagan is expected to stay in the country for about a week to participate in the military drill with the South Korean Navy, as well as friendly and goodwill events.
"The arrival of the nuclear-powered supercarrier and the planned joint exercises are the results of constant consultations over strategic asset allocation between the Yoon Suk-yeol government and the United States," a government official said.
It is the first time that the Reagan has joined a combined exercise in the waters around the Korean Peninsula since 2017, when Pyongyang conducted its sixth nuclear test.
The naval practice comes as military tensions have been escalating on the Korean Peninsula over the North's looming seventh nuclear test.
The Reagan has a deck the size of three football fields, with nearly 80 aircraft on board ranging from fighter jets to helicopters. It has a crew of 5,000.
brk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김보람 · September 2, 2022
6. Seoul, Tokyo, Washington vow to make Pyongyang ‘learn of its fault’ if it carries out nuclear test
Excerpt:
Kim also said the reactions of the three countries would “certainly be different from those until now,” when the North carries out the seventh nuclear test.
Seoul, Tokyo, Washington vow to make Pyongyang ‘learn of its fault’ if it carries out nuclear test
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · September 2, 2022
South Korea, Japan and the United States agreed to join forces to take strong measures against North Korea if it conducts a nuclear test, to make sure the regime understands it has clearly made a “wrong decision,” Seoul’s security chief said on Thursday (US time).
The three countries also vowed to come up with a joint response to prevent disruption in the global supply chain, South Korea’s National Security Advisor Kim Sung-han said after a meeting with his US and Japanese counterparts.
Kim met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Japan’s National Security Advisor Takeo Akiba in Honolulu to discuss North Korea, economic security and major regional issues on Thursday. The meeting was the first of its kind to be held among the security chiefs since Korea’s Yoon Suk-yeol administration came into office in May.
“The three countries agreed to further strengthen cooperation to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the region,” Kim said, speaking to reporters before returning to Seoul.
“The (speculated) nuclear test should not be perceived as just one more nuclear test to the past six. So we will maximize our joint efforts together with international society to make sure the North understands that its seventh nuclear test is a clear mistake.”
Kim also said the reactions of the three countries would “certainly be different from those until now,” when the North carries out the seventh nuclear test.
On their trilateral cooperation on extended nuclear deterrence, Kim said it is a topic that should first be handled between South Korea and the US.
Further details on extended nuclear deterrence will be discussed in the meeting of the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group between Seoul and Washington, slated for mid-September, Kim added.
The intelligence authorities in Seoul and Washington assess that the North appears to have finished all preparations to carry out a nuclear test. Pyongyang conducted its sixth nuclear test in September 2019.
At the trilateral meeting, Kim also promoted the Korean government’s “audacious initiative,” under which it would provide aid and economic benefits to the North in return for its steps toward denuclearization.
Both the US and Japan showed positive responses to the audacious initiative scheme and said they would cooperate, Kim said.
Kim also held bilateral talks with Sullivan and Akiba, separately, before their trilateral talks.
In the meeting with the US security advisor, Kim had delivered Korea’s concerns over the US Inflation Reduction Act that was recently signed by US President Joe Biden.
The new law, signed on Aug. 16, allows a government credit of up $7,500 for each electric vehicle purchase, but only to cars that are built in North America. This means stripping away subsidies from most Korean EVs exported to the US, dealing a heavy blow to Korean automakers.
Seoul views the new law as potentially violating the Korea-US free trade agreement.
In their bilateral talks, Sullivan agreed to have the US National Security Council review Korea’s concerns and possible damages the law can have on the Korean auto industry, according to Kim.
By Jo He-rim (herim@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · September 2, 2022
7. North Korea’s Trading of Small Arms and Light Weapons: Open-source Information Analysis of Sanctions Implementation
Charts and graphics at the link below.
Conclusion:
The UN arms embargo on North Korea may have contributed to achieving its goal by making North Korea’s trading of SALW costly and having to rely on illicit procurement channels. However, based on this analysis, there are still implementation challenges that need to be addressed to improve compliance with the sanctions and the ATT. This means ensuring that UN member states’ SALW exports are not diverted exports to the DPRK, enhancing their import and reexport controls, sharing information among countries to guarantee compliance with the sanctions and the ATT, clearly defining the SALW that are subject to the sanctions on North Korea, and practicing sound record keeping.
North Korea’s Trading of Small Arms and Light Weapons: Open-source Information Analysis of Sanctions Implementation
https://www.38north.org/2022/09/north-koreas-trading-of-small-arms-and-light-weapons-open-source-information-analysis-of-sanctions-implementation/
Introduction: UN Arms Embargos on North Korea
The United Nations’ (UN) sanctions on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) prohibits UN member states from trading small arms and light weapons (SALW) with North Korea. This is aimed at curbing trading activities that could contribute to advancing North Korea’s military capabilities and generating revenue for its nuclear and missile programs. Open-source information analysis that uses a statistical trade database suggests that the UN arms embargo on North Korea is having the intended impact in general. However, the recent trends in North Korea’s SALW indicate areas that deserve attention from the international community, such as closely watching North Korea’s exports of SALW to countries that are striving for human security and political stability, and the reexport of SALW to North Korea by a UN member state via the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT.) This article provides a summary of the trends in North Korea’s SALW trading activities between 2009 and 2021 and discusses the potential impact of these imports and exports on international peace and security. It also offers policy recommendations for how to improve sanctions implementation in this area.
Background
North Korea has been under the UN arms embargo since its first nuclear test in 2006. The UN Security Council (UNSC) adopted Resolution 1718, which imposes bans on the trade of heavy conventional weapons, such as battle tanks, warships and combat aircraft, with North Korea. In 2009, UNSCR 1874 expanded the measures on conventional weapons by sanctioning all arms and related materiel except for the export of SALW to North Korea. Exports of SALW to North Korea were later prohibited by the UNSCR 2270 in 2016. These sanctions also prevent UN member states from providing or receiving technical assistance, along with training and services related to the production, use and maintenance of arms and their related materiel.
In 2016, the UN Panel of Experts (POE) on North Korea identified several countries involved in potential SALW trades with North Korea by analyzing a trade database called the Harmonized System (HS), which consists of tariff nomenclature codes. For example, the POE found that Thailand’s trading records indicate that they imported 117,207 USD in goods, such as bombs, grenades, torpedoes, mines and missiles, from North Korea in 2009. Based on its findings, the POE initiated communications with the respective governments and verified that the nature of some of these transactions was not in violation of the sanctions.
Methodology
Provided below is a summary of the data collected from the UN ComTrade Database that maintains HS-based data reported by UN member states. HS is a numeric coding system that allows customs agencies in different jurisdictions to identify what types of items are being traded. For example, the code HS 93 stands for arms, ammunition and related parts. The addition of two or four digits following “93” then further specifies traded goods, such as “9301,” which represents military weapons. This study presents aggregated trading volumes that fall under HS 93.
It is important to note that the findings in this article are not to be viewed as definitive evidence of sanctions violations, nor are they conclusive judgments on the issues related to these sanctions. The findings of this study are intended to serve as a starting point for further investigations. Plus, exporters can make mistakes in classifying their goods or identifying destinations and origins in export and import declarations, which will be discussed in detail later, along with the provision of some examples.
Figure 1. SALW-related HS Codes.
Figure: Hyuk Kim.[1]
Findings
The total amount of SALW exports to North Korea has significantly decreased since 2016. Notably, no official SALW export records from 2019 through 2021 exist. The Philippines and Cyprus are the only countries to have transferred 69,347 USD and 19,382 USD of SALW, respectively, to North Korea between 2016 and 2018. The types of commodities exported by the Philippines include HS 9304 and HS 9305. The database indicates that Cyprus reexported HS 9303, while the origins of those arms remain unclear.
In regards to the procurement of SALW from North Korea, the total volume of imports by UN member states significantly decreased from approximately 3.5 million USD to 75,000 USD between 2009 and 2011, but since 2015 have been on the rebound. The main SALW importers whose total import amount exceeded 10,000 USD between 2015 and 2021 are Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador, Niger and Fiji. The commodities most imported from the DPRK between 2015 and 2021 are those that fall under HS 9306—amounting to about 1.7 million USD.
Figure: Hyuk Kim.
Figure: Hyuk Kim.
Figure 4. Estimated Imports of Each Type of SALW From North Korea From 2015-2021.
Figure: Hyuk Kim.
Analysis and Suggestions
Impact on UN Member States’ Trade With North Korea
The findings suggest that the adoption of the UN arms embargo on North Korea might correlate to the overall decrease in SALW trade with North Korea. It is possible that the measures on SALW have made it difficult for the DPRK to use regular international trading channels for trading SALW, while simultaneously making illicit SALW trafficking costly. Therefore, the arms embargo on North Korea may have achieved its goals of limiting North Korea’s ability to generate revenue and develop its military capabilities, at least to some degree. The recent rebound in SALW imports from North Korea implies that some UN member states have not been adhering to the arms embargo on the DPRK. However, this recent surge may also be on account of importers mistakenly attributing the origin of these transfers to North Korea, as explained below.
Fiji’s Procurements of SALW From North Korea
Fiji spent a total of approximately 2.5 million USD from 2019-2021 on SALW imports from North Korea. However, the data concerning Fiji for the period between 2019 and 2020 should not be viewed as evidence of it having violated sanctions. As shown in Figure 3, the UN database indicates that Fiji imported 37,570 USD of SALW from North Korea in 2011. Upon the POE’s inquiry about these imports, Fiji claimed that there was a mistake in the declaration process by attributing these imports to North Korea instead of their actual origin of South Korea. The UN database shows similar transfers of SALW to Fiji by South Korea between 2019 and 2020, albeit with slight differences in the totals and types of goods. As such, the POE should first consult with Fiji to confirm the origin of 2019-2020 SALW imports and identify the nature of trades in 2021.
Figure 5. Potential SALW Transfers to Fiji by South Korea and North Korea From 2019-2021.
Figure: Hyuk Kim.
SALW Exported by North Korea to Other UN Member States Striving for Human Security and Political Stability:
The excessive accumulation of SALW by a country could intensify regional or domestic instability, especially when they are exported to a country where the national authority is faced with challenges in coping with internal conflicts, high levels of crimes and violence, or illicit arms trafficking. Between 2015-2017, North Korea exported 59,858 USD, 37,544 USD and 38,660 USD of SALW to Niger, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago, respectively. The types of SALW exported to El Salvador were mostly bombs, grenades, torpedoes, mines and missiles, while HS 9304 were the major commodities exported to Niger and Trinidad and Tobago.
Figure 6. Estimated Exports of SALW by North Korea to El Salvador, Niger and Trinidad and Tobago.
Figure: Hyuk Kim.
Niger and other countries in the Sahel region have suffered from humanitarian crises caused by armed groups in the region and illegal SALW trafficking since 2011.[2] El Salvador has a high murder rate, and the Salvadoran military is known to often sell surplus SALW to local cartels and other criminal groups. The increase in homicides involving SALW has also been a significant concern for Trinidad and Tobago, and the government has made efforts to control firearms. It is unlikely that North Korea has conducted a thorough risk assessment of these identified SALW transfers, given its track record of opposing the adoption of the ATT, which requires enhanced due diligence in the transferring of arms to a region where the risks of terrorism and human rights violations are high. In this regard, the POE should initiate consultation processes with the respective governments to confirm and enhance their sanctions compliance, which can also contribute to their political stability and ensure human security. Moreover, the customs agencies in those countries need to improve their risk profiling capabilities.
Reexport of SALW to North Korea by Cyprus
As previously stated, Cyprus reexported a total of 19,381 USD of HS 9303 to the DPRK between 2017 and 2018. There are several possible reasons for this:
- Cyprus imported HS 9303 commodities from other states and reexported some or all of these items to North Korea.
-
UN member states’ exported items declared under 9301, 9302, 9304 and 9305 to Cyprus, and the items were reclassified as HS 9303 for diversion to North Korea.[3]
- Member states exported HS 9305 parts and accessories and other items to Cyprus, and those items were assembled there and then exported as HS 9303 to North Korea.
- Cyprus made mistakes in its export declaration processes regarding destinations or commodity classifications.
- Cyprus holds a view that exporting HS 9303 to North Korea is not a violation of This is primarily due to SALW not being clearly defined in Resolutions 1718, 1874 and 2270.
For the first three scenarios, the POE may need to initiate a consultation process with Cyprus to identify the nature of the SALW reexports to North Korea. Additionally, member states that exported HS 9303 items to Cyprus between 2017 and 2018 may need to seek clarification from Cyprus to ensure that its exports were not diverted to the DPRK. The UN database indicates that 26 member states exported items under HS 9301-HS 9305 to Cyprus between 2017 and 2018. Most of them are ATT parties, which means that they are required to maintain SALW transfer records for a minimum of 10 years and are encouraged to share information with other ATT parties or the Secretariat. Those who have not signed or ratified the ATT, such as the United States, Russia and Turkey, may need to conduct bilateral consultations with Cyprus. Most importantly, Cyprus needs to review its reexport records and national reexport control system to identify any potential weak links.
Regarding the fourth scenario, the UN database does not show any record of South Korea importing HS 9301-HS 9305 items from Cyprus between 2017 and 2018. This means it is unlikely that Cyprus made a mistake due to confusing South Korea and North Korea with one another when declaring the destination for the reexport of SALW. However, Cyprus might have misclassified non-SALW items as HS 9303, which only can be verified by Cyprus itself.
In terms of the fifth scenario, it is possible for UN member states to export items under HS 93 to North Korea, as there is no consistent understanding among different member states of what SALW are. For example, the POE consulted with China on its exports of HS 93 items to North Korea (shown in Figure 2), and China claimed that it does not view hunting rifles and guns for competitions as SALW.[4] Likewise, Cyprus might have considered what they exported to North Korea not to be items that fell into the category of SALW. In this regard, the sanctions committee must define the exact scope of SALW subject to sanctions.[5]
Figure 7. Estimated Total Exports of Items (HS 9301-HS 9305) to Cyprus Between 2017 and 2018 (The triangles in the ATT column indicate the countries that signed but did not ratify the treaty).
Figure: Hyuk Kim.
Conclusion
The UN arms embargo on North Korea may have contributed to achieving its goal by making North Korea’s trading of SALW costly and having to rely on illicit procurement channels. However, based on this analysis, there are still implementation challenges that need to be addressed to improve compliance with the sanctions and the ATT. This means ensuring that UN member states’ SALW exports are not diverted exports to the DPRK, enhancing their import and reexport controls, sharing information among countries to guarantee compliance with the sanctions and the ATT, clearly defining the SALW that are subject to the sanctions on North Korea, and practicing sound record keeping.
- [1]
- The 2016 UN POE report confirms that goods categorized under HS 9307 also include SALW. Between 2009 and 2021, the database shows a very limited amount of HS 9307 trade with North Korea. China exported a total of 2,560 USD worth of HS 9307 to North Korea in 2010, while Bahrain imported a total of 233 USD worth of HS 9307 from North Korea in 2011.
- [2]
-
See “Sahel: Amnesty identifies Serbian weapons in stockpiles of brutal armed groups,” Amnesty International, August 24, 2021, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/08/sahel-amnesty-identifies-serbian-weapons-in-stockpiles-of-brutal-armed-groups/; Genevieve Jesse, “Arms Trafficking: Fueling Conflict in the Sahel,” The International Affairs Review, July 12, 2022, https://www.iar-gwu.org/print-archive/ikjtfxf3nmqgd0np1ht10mvkfron6n-bykaf-ey3hc-rfbxp-dpte8-klmp4n; and “UNODC and its partners facilitate the process of marking and registration of small arms and light weapons in Niger,” UNDOC, Accessed September 1, 2022, https://www.unodc.org/westandcentralafrica/en/marking-and-registration-of-small-arms-in-niger.html.
- [3]
- HS 9306 and HS 9307 are not considered, as they are not guns. HS 9306 indicates bombs, mines, torpedoes and grenades, while HS 9307 represents swords.
- [4]
-
China exported HS 93 items to North Korea before the adoption of a ban on exports of SALW to North Korea in 2016. See also United Nations, Security Council, Report of the Panel of Experts Established Pursuant to Resolution 1874, S/2019/157, February 24, 2019, http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2016_157.pdf.
- [5]
-
There are guides that can help define the SALW subject to the UN sanctions on North Korea. For example, the International Small Arms Control Standards (ISACS), defines small arms as: “any man-portable lethal weapon that expels or launches, is designed to expel or launch, or may be readily converted to expel or launch a shot, bullet or projectile by the action of an explosive…” Light weapons are defined as: “weapons designed for use by two or three persons serving as a crew, although some may be carried and used by a single person. They include, inter alia, heavy machine guns, hand-held under-barrel and mounted grenade launchers…” In addition, the UN Panel of Governmental Experts on Small Arms identified that “non-military weapons, such as hunting firearms and home-made weapons,” have been used on several occasions of terrorism and violent conflicts.
8. NSC chief says Korea-Japan summit may take place at UN General Assembly
It could be a busy week in New York for President Yoon.
NSC chief says Korea-Japan summit may take place at UN General Assembly
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · September 2, 2022
By Shin Ji-hye
Published : Sept 2, 2022 - 20:06 Updated : Sept 2, 2022 - 20:31
South Korea’s national security adviser Kim Sung-han (Yonhap)
South Korea’s national security adviser Kim Sung-han said he had discussed a bilateral summit between the leaders of the two nations with his Japanese counterpart, hinting it could take place as early as the middle of this month at the United Nations General Assembly.
When a reporter asked upon his arrival on Friday afternoon if he had discussed the specific timing of a summit between President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Kim replied, "We discussed the specific timing, but I don’t think it’s the stage to reveal it now.”
Kim returned home Friday after a two-day meeting of the chief security officers of South Korea, the US and Japan and bilateral meetings with the two nations, respectively.
He added, "I think there will be an opportunity for the two leaders to meet in the form of so-called ‘shuttle diplomacy’ and clarify a specific solution if it is necessary before or after the UN and other multilateral meetings."
When asked if there is a possibility at the UN General Assembly at the earliest, he replied, "We are leaving that possibility open."
If the Korea-Japan summit is held this month, it will be the first at the highest level in two years and 10 months, since former President Moon Jae-in and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held bilateral talks in December 2019 in Chengdu, China.
Yoon and Kishida have emphasized the improvement of bilateral relations through phone calls and Korea-Japan policy delegations.
Earlier, the possibility of holding the first Korea-Japan summit during the NATO summit in Madrid in June was raised, but it failed to materialize.
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
9. Japanese and South Koreans see each other more favorably, poll shows
Both the Japanese and Korean press are presenting this survey information relatively positively. But I think we all know there is still a long way to go.
Japanese and South Koreans see each other more favorably, poll shows
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/02/national/south-korea-japan-relations-survey/?utm_source=pocket_mylist
Japanese and South Koreans both see each other’s country more favorably than last year, but ill feelings linger after years of soured political relations between the Asian neighbors over wartime issues, a survey showed Thursday.
Japanese who have unfavorable feelings about South Korea stood at 40.3%, down 8.5 percentage points, while South Koreans who hold a negative impression of Japan came to 52.8%, down 10.4 points, according to the poll conducted by nonprofit think tank Genron NPO and the Seoul-based East Asia Institute.
The Japanese think tank attributed the slight improvements to the fact that the two countries are both democratic countries allying with the United States on the back of intensifying tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Still, the survey covering about 1,000 people in each country, conducted between July and August, found that 52% of South Koreans believe relations between Tokyo and Seoul will not change. Among the Japanese respondents, it was 37.7%.
About 20% of the Japanese respondents hold a good impression of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, known for taking a “future-oriented” approach with Japan. It compares with 2% for his predecessor, Moon Jae-in.
Japan-South Korea ties deteriorated to their lowest level in decades under the previous administration of Moon, during which the top court ordered the two Japanese firms to compensate South Korean plaintiffs for their unpaid labor during Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.
Japan maintains that the issue of claims stemming from the colonial era was settled under a bilateral accord signed in 1965 when they normalized diplomatic ties.
Asked about Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, only 6.6% of the South Korean respondents said they have a good impression.
“Public sentiment is beginning to change, but government-to-government relations remain stagnant,” Yasushi Kudo, the head of the think tank, said at a news conference in Tokyo, urging Tokyo and Seoul to take specific steps to improve ties.
10. Koreans, Japanese Think More Kindly of Each Other
A view from the Korean media on the survey.
Koreans, Japanese Think More Kindly of Each Other
english.chosun.com
September 02, 2022 13:30
Koreans and Japanese hold more favorable views of each other than they used to, a poll suggests, particularly young people who have more exposure to each other's country through travel and pop culture.
The poll of 2,023 Koreans and Japanese was conducted by the East Asia Institute in Korea and Genron NPO of Japan.
Some 30.6 percent of Korean respondents hold a favorable view of Japan, up 10.1 percentage points from a year ago, while 30.4 percent of Japanese see Korea favorably, up five percentage points.
It seems goodwill has returned to levels last seen before 2019, when Koreans boycotted Japanese products amid a spat over historical issues. Mutual opinion has improved for the first time since 2016.
Downright unfavorable views decreased apace. Some 52.8 percent of Koreans still have a negative image of Japan, down 8.6 percentage points, while 40.3 percent of Japanese have a low opinion of Korea, down 8.3 percentage points.
Young Japanese Take to Korean Soju
Fresh Korean Wave Sweeps Japan's Millennials
11. US-South Korea-Japan Strengthen Joint Commitment in Face of Possible 7th North Korean Nuclear Test
Key point. This may be why north Korea is delaying the tests.
Excerpt:
Officials in Seoul and Washington have repeatedly said that Pyongyang is in the final stage of planning for a seventh nuclear test, indicating that Kim Jong Un can carry out the test anytime he wants. However, as one of the most important events this year for China – the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – is scheduled on October 16, Pyongyang might not make any provocative moves that could disrupt Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s historic moment.
US-South Korea-Japan Strengthen Joint Commitment in Face of Possible 7th North Korean Nuclear Test
The national security advisors from the three countries met in Honolulu this week to discuss a coordinated response to the growing North Korean threat.
thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · September 2, 2022
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Seoul’s National Security Advisor Kim Sung-han met his U.S. and Japanese counterparts on Thursday at the headquarters of the United States Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu, Hawaii. It is the first in-person trilateral meeting between the security chiefs since South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol took office in May.
Amid the growing North Korean nuclear and missile threat, the trilateral and bilateral meetings of the security chiefs were held in order to reaffirm the joint and united response.
“If North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear test, the corresponding measure would be completely different,” Kim said after the trilateral meeting on Thursday.
Kim also pointed out that his counterparts, Jake Sullivan and Takeo Akiba, agreed to respond to the North’s nuclear test in a serious manner.
While reiterating Seoul’s hawkish stance on the North’s nuclear and missile threats, Kim emphasized that “the trilateral cooperation of the U.S., South Korea and Japan would be maximized, with the coordination with the international community, to make North Korea realize that it was a wrong decision” if it conducted the nuclear test.
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Kim also told reporters that the three security chiefs discussed the corresponding response measure to a possible seventh nuclear test concretely but refused to share details.
Last month, Yoon publicly showed a dovish overture toward North Korea with his “audacious initiative,” an economic package as inducement for Pyongyang’s denuclearization. Unlike his earlier hawkish remarks, including a preemptive strike option against the North, which he aired during the presidential campaign, Yoon has initiated a two-pronged approach to bring the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un back to the negotiating table. Regarding Seoul’s new approach to dismantling North Korea’s nuclear arsenals and denuclearizing the peninsula, Kim said that Sullivan and Akiba showed a considerably positive reaction to it and agreed to closely coordinate to motivate North Korea to accept Seoul’s offer. However, Yoon’s “audacious initiative” is unlikely to yield progress soon.
Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of Kim Jong Un and the main voice on inter-Korean relations, published a statement days after Yoon proposed his initiative. She belligerently criticized it with North Korean-style provocative words.
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In the statement, Kim Yo Jong made clear that there would be no dialogue and cooperation with the Yoon administration while likening Yoon to a “knave” and denouncing Seoul’s attempts to denuclearize North Korea. She also stated that Yoon’s bold “audacious initiative” is a copy of the previous Lee Myung-bak administration’s “Opening and 3000” plan – which had failed to deter the North’s nuclear and missile developments. As key policy advisers for the Yoon administration also worked for the Lee administration, experts had already anticipated that Yoon’s policy on North Korea would be an updated version of Lee’s.
Seoul expressed regrets over Kim Yo Jong’s statement as it and its ally, the U.S., are still seeking room for dialogue to renew the stalled nuclear talks. The extended joint military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea, which Pyongyang deems one of the pair’s “hostile policies,” formally ended on Thursday. North Korea may now be ready to show off its advanced missile programs such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Officials in Seoul and Washington have repeatedly said that Pyongyang is in the final stage of planning for a seventh nuclear test, indicating that Kim Jong Un can carry out the test anytime he wants. However, as one of the most important events this year for China – the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – is scheduled on October 16, Pyongyang might not make any provocative moves that could disrupt Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s historic moment.
thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · September 2, 2022
12. A Three Part Plan to Enhance President Yoon’s North Korea Strategy: Toward a Free and Unified Korea (with comments)
Following up with comments.
Comments are usually not worth reading in most of these articles but the third on below makes some points actually must be considered and that we have been working on.
A Three Part Plan to Enhance President Yoon’s North Korea Strategy: Toward a Free and Unified Korea
19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · September 2, 2022
On August 15th, in his Liberation Day speech, President Yoon described his “audacious initiative” for North Korea. In summary, it is an economic engagement proposal that is intended to be a first step to begin negotiations. The plan has been coordinated with and has the full support of the U.S. Unfortunately the Kim family regime responded first with two cruise missiles fired into the West Sea and then Kim Yo Jong offered invective and personal insults to the President while rejecting his plan.
The regime’s response was not a surprise. Others in South Korea and the U.S. are underwhelmed by the plan and say it is simply maintaining the status quo. Experts note it lacks details. It seems that the Yoon administration raised expectations with the use of an “audacious initiative.” This appears to be an action for action plan based on the carrot of economic incentives in return for steps toward denuclearization. The words of a longtime Korea hand, privately conveyed, may be appropriate here: “Everything with North Korea has been tried and there is only repackaging of old ideas.”
Perhaps the best way to describe the “audacious initiative” is that it is an initial plan to propose to the North to begin a dialogue. It may require some more meat on the bones. What follows is a brief but possibly bold proposal to do that.
Kim Jong Un’s Fears
It should be clear to all that Kim Jong Un has no intention to give up his “treasured sword” of nuclear weapons that provides a deterrent capability to ensure his survival while supporting his three-fold strategy of political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting capabilities. His strategic aim is to eventually dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. It is crucial to understand the nature of the regime and the threats it perceives beyond the usual one of outside military attack.
Economic engagement and information are threats to the regime. However, in reality, Kim is the threat to his own existence. His deliberate decision to prioritize nuclear and missile development, support the regime elite, and develop advanced warfighting capabilities at the expense of the Korean people in the North is truly a criminal act as 25 million people suffer under his barbaric rule. Kim Jong Un needs to reform his economy to allow the North to survive yet due to the nature of the regime and its political system he cannot reform because to do so would undermine the legitimacy of the regime.
The provision of economic aid and development would mean that outsiders would have access to the North and this will mean engagement with the people and their access to information, which is an existential threat to the regime.
There seems to be little difference from the Trump proposal which he showed on an iPad video in Singapore and can be summarized as: If Kim makes the right strategic decision, North Korea can have a brighter future. The right strategic decision means to give up his nuclear weapons. Kim believes he cannot do that and still survive. He does not want a brighter future for the Korean people and the nation. He only wants a brighter future for himself, the regime, the elite, and the military, at the expense of the people. In addition, the brighter future is a threat to the regime because it means engagement and information.
The “audacious initiative” continues to focus on achieving complete verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID). The ROK, the US, and the UN continue to seek this objective. But there is a growing belief that North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons if the Kim family regime remains in power. If that is so, it must be factored into any strategy for dealing with the North.
So, the question is, has everything already been tried and are there only old proposals that can be repackaged?
An examination of the “audacious initiative” shows it lacks three critical parts or lines of effort.
Human Rights Upfront
Two parts of a bold and audacious strategy can be found in the words of the newly appointed South Korean Ambassador for Human Rights in North Korea, Professor Lee Shin Hwa. What is needed is an information offensive to get information into the North. It is time to stop neglecting human rights in the North and for the ROK/U.S. alliance to take a human rights approach upfront.
Although not described in the “audacious initiative,” South Korea is reinvigorating its focus on human rights in North Korea and taking the lead in a human rights upfront approach. As noted, President Yoon appointed Professor Lee Shin Hwa as the South Korean Ambassador at large for North Korean Human Rights, a position that had gone unfilled for five years. The Minister of Unification has renewed resolve to enhance human rights in North Korea. The government has resumed interagency policy meetings on human rights after a two year hiatus. Lastly, President Yoon has proposed establishing a new human rights foundation to comply with exiting South Korean law. These actions provide the foundation for a human rights upfront approach which should be the first line of effort for a bold proposal. Human rights are not only a moral imperative, but they are also a national security issue as Kim Jong Un must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the North to remain in power. Just as President Reagan was not dissuaded from a human rights upfront approach as he conducted arms control negotiations with the USSR, no one should heed the bad advice that human rights should be tabled until there is a denuclearization agreement.
An Information and Influence Strategy
The second line of effort must be a comprehensive and sophisticated information and influence activities strategy. The Korean people in the North need to be informed about their rights and understand that they have unalienable rights as outlined in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Although the most sinister system of social control, Songbun, and the most dangerous and brutal security apparatus in the world exists in North Korea to oppress the people, it is information and international support that will help set the people free. The international community owes it to the Korean people in the North to help them after seven decades of suffering. In the U.S. Army Special Forces, there is a motto that says “De Oppresso Liber” – “to free the oppressed.” In the case of North Korea, the world must pledge to help the Korean people free themselves.
A comprehensive information and influence campaign should consist of the following:
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Establishment of a Korean Defector Information Institute to harness the expertise and power of escapees who are key communicators with credibility and legitimacy among the Korean people in the North.
- Creation of divisions among the elite and the military.
- Informing the Korean people of their unalienable and universal human rights.
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Informing the people about the unification process and a future free and unified Korea.
- Influencing the second tier leadership (those with significant military power) to not attack the South in time of crisis.
In addition to government and ROK/U.S. alliance efforts, South Korea should encourage civil society to contribute to the information effort. It should empower and support nongovernmental organizations and stakeholders in Korea and around the world who support a free and unified Korea.
The major effect of an influence campaign will be to give Kim Jong Un three choices: (1) he can change his behavior and become a responsible member of the international community who will protect the human rights of the Korean people in the North; (2) he can be forced to change his behavior by the elite and military due to his inability and failure to provide for their welfare; (3) the Korean people in the North can change the leadership when they can no longer tolerate living under the most despotic authoritarian rule in the 21st century.
A Free and Unified Korea
An information and influence campaign based on human rights can form the basis for change in the North and this will be to support what should be the most important line of effort in a bold and audacious plan – to seek a free and unified Korea. It is only when there is a free and unified Korea that there will be an end to the nuclear threat and the crimes against humanity being perpetrated against the Korean people in the North. A new bold and audacious plan will give Kim Jong Un the opportunity to change or be changed from within. Ultimately the Korean people must solve the “Korea question” (which can be found in paragraph 60 of the Armistice that describes the unnatural division of the peninsula).
The ROK Ministry of Unification should be reorganized and reimagined to have a sole focus based on its name. It must be the South Korean organization completely responsible for developing the detailed plans and policies for unification. It must be the coordinating organization within the South Korean interagency and it must liaise with international stakeholders who will support and benefit from unification.
This strategy must be nested in the ROK/U.S. alliance’s integrated deterrence strategy as part of the broader strategic competition that is taking place in the region. ROK/U.S. military defensive capabilities and political warfare, aggressive diplomacy, sanctions, counter-proliferation, interdiction of global illicit activities, and cyber operations form the foundation for the bold and audacious three part strategy of human rights up front, information and influence, and pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
Korean unification is one of the most complex strategic challenges in Northeast Asia. China, Russia, and North Korea will surely attempt to complicate it. However, it is the only outcome that will ensure elimination of the North Korean nuclear program and the threats to the South, the region, and the international community. It is also the only way to end the human rights atrocities being perpetrated against the Korean people living in the North. There is strategic planning paralysis because of the complex scenarios and contingencies that are likely to be faced. However, regardless of the scenario or contingency, the one concrete effort South Korea and the ROK/U.S. alliance can take is to focus on an information campaign built on human rights to prepare the Korean people living in the North for unification. This must be a comprehensive, fully resourced, and sustained campaign plan and it must be based on ROK unification plans and policies.
The guiding principle for policy makers and strategists in the ROK and U.S. should be to ask how does this policy, strategy, plan, or program support achievement of a free and unified Korea? That is the essence of a bold and audacious plan for the Korean peninsula and one that can result in the only outcome that will protect, serve, and advance the interests of the Korean people, the ROK/U.S. alliance, the region, and the international community: in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
“통일” (Tong Il) – Unification!
David Maxwell, a 1945 Contributing Editor, is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 30 years in Asia and specializes in North Korea and East Asia Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Small Wars Journal. He is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation (where he focuses on a free and unified Korea), and a Senior Advisor to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy.
3 Comments
- pagar
- September 2, 2022 at 3:24 pm
- Before Yoon and/or his cohort get all very messily tied up with the north, they need to free south Korea from their umbilical connection with the US military.
- Otherwise, it’s all just empty talk as the north won’t ever fall for such snake oil salesmen. Not for the foreseeable future.
- Reply
- GhostTomahawk
- September 2, 2022 at 8:28 pm
- The only way you’re going to get any wiggle room is by conceding to N Korea their autonomy and their weapons. Let them have them. If helping those oppressed people is the goal then saying “you can be in control and keep your little nukes but, we are coming in with food, aid etc and the world economy is coming too.”
- Un wants to enrich himself and his cronys like in China. Fine. If helping the people means enriching that toadie so be it. If not then whack him and take that place over. We’ve done it before. We’ve overthrown our own govt at least twice.
- Reply
- Joe Comment
- September 3, 2022 at 2:10 am
- I don’t think this plan will be attractive to North Koreans. What if they follow the South’s information and influence campaign? They risk severe punishment by the North. What if they don’t follow the South’s ideas? Will they be punished for human rights abuses after unification? I don’t think we should leave the North Korean people caught in the middle like that. In particular, I think the Human Rights Foundation needs to offer a path to amnesty for mid-level North Korean officials who are forced to commit human rights abuses as part of their jobs. Do we really expect soldiers, police officers, judicial staff, jail wardens etc. to disobey their orders in a strictly controlled society such as North Korea? If some do, how many do we expect to live to see unification?
19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · September 2, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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