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Quotes of the Day:
"Above all, avoid lies, all lies, especially the lie to yourself. And avoid fear, though fear is simply the consequence of every lie."
~Fyodor Dostoyevsky
“No one saves us but ourselves / No one can and no one may.”
- Buddha
'Loyalty is a noble quality, so long as it is not blind and does not exclude the higher loyalty to truth and decency'
- Basil Liddell Hart
1. US: Russia to buy rockets, artillery shells from North Korea
2. S. Korea hosts annual int'l security forum on N.K. threats, regional peace
3. Activist floats balloons again despite North Korea's warning
4. Hack on North Korea peace forum exposes participants’ personal information
5. Adding Crisis to Crisis: Climate Change & Human Rights in North Korea
6. The Korean Peninsula remains heavily militarized
7. The Secret Weapons Scheme Spiraling Under America’s Nose
8. Extended Deterrence and South Korea’s Role
9. Game-changer
10. [ANALYSIS] Korea's NASA: one giant leap for the country's bureaucracy
11. North Korea's Kim Jong-un holds meeting on disaster prevention amid concern about typhoon damage
12. Forced labor victims say they don't want government's compensation
13. 'Inflation Reduction Act is in clear violation of KORUS FTA'
14. N. Korea causing 'great concern' with continued nuke development: minister
15. Korea expected to become world's most aged country in 2044
1. US: Russia to buy rockets, artillery shells from North Korea
Authoritarian regimes, unite!
north Korea is now the arsenal of the authoritarians. I guess it is time to pay Russia back for all the arms, ammunition, and equipment the USSR provided to the nKPA during the Korean War.
Input from a retired intelligence officer who knows about these things:
Suddenly Russia is unable to produce 107mm and 122mm shells? But North Korea is? And how are these "millions of shells and rockets" supposed to get there? Train? Man, I don't wanna be on that train.
Are we to believe the supply chain system has broken down so much in Russia that they have to turn to a supply chain system that is 50 times as long? I mean, from North Korea to the Ukrainian front is a long, long way.
US: Russia to buy rockets, artillery shells from North Korea
AP · by AAMER MADHANI · September 6, 2022
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight in Ukraine, according to a newly downgraded U.S. intelligence finding.
A U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence determination, said Monday that the fact Russia is turning to the isolated state of North Korea demonstrates that “the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions.”
U.S. intelligence officials believe that the Russians could look to purchase additional North Korean military equipment in the future. The intelligence finding was first reported by The New York Times.
The U.S. official did not detail how much weaponry Russia intends to purchase from North Korea.
The finding comes after the Biden administration recently confirmed that the Russian military in August took delivery of Iranian-manufactured drones for use on the battlefield in Ukraine.
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The White House said last week that Russia has faced technical problems with Iranian-made drones acquired from Tehran in August for use in its war with Ukraine.
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Russia picked up Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series unmanned aerial vehicles over several days last month as part what the Biden administration says is likely part of a Russian plan to acquire hundreds of Iranian UAVs for use in Ukraine.
North Korea has sought to tighten relations with Russia as much of Europe and the West has pulled away, blaming the United States for the Ukraine crisis and decrying the West’s “hegemonic policy” as justifying military action by Russia in Ukraine to protect itself.
The North Koreans have hinted interest in sending construction workers to help rebuild Russian-occupied territories in the country’s east.
North Korea’s ambassador to Moscow recently met with envoys from two Russia-backed separatist territories in the Donbas region of Ukraine and expressed optimism about cooperation in the “field of labor migration,” citing his country’s easing pandemic border controls.
In July, North Korea became the only nation aside from Russia and Syria to recognize the independence of the territories, Donetsk and Luhansk, further aligning with Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.
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The North’s arms export to Russia would be a violation of U.N. resolutions that ban the country from exporting to or importing weapons from other countries. Its possible dispatch of laborers to the Russian-held territories in Ukraine would also breach a U.N. resolution that required all member states to repatriate all North Korean workers from their soil by 2019.
There have been suspicions that China and Russia haven’t fully enforced U.N. sanctions on North Korea, complicating a U.S.-led attempt to deprive North Korea of its nuclear weapons.
The provocative move by North Korea comes as the Biden administration has become increasingly concerned about stepped-up activity by North Korea in pursuit of nuclear weapons.
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North Korea has test-fired more than 30 ballistic missiles this year, including its first flights of intercontinental ballistic missiles since 2017, as leader Kim Jong Un pushes to advance his nuclear arsenal despite U.S.-led pressure and sanctions.
The U.S. has frequently downgraded and unveiled intelligence findings over the course of the grinding war in Ukraine to highlight plans for Russian misinformation operations or to throw attention on Moscow’s difficulties in prosecuting the war. Ukraine’s smaller military has put up a stiff resistance against the militarily superior Russian forces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim have recently exchanged letters in which they both called for “comprehensive” and “strategic and tactical” cooperation between the countries. Moscow, for its part, has issued statements condemning the revival of large-scale military exercises between the United States and South Korea this year, which North Korea views as an invasion rehearsal.
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Russia, along with China, has called for the easing of U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea over its nuclear and missile tests. Both countries are members of the U.N. Security Council, which has approved a total of 11 rounds of sanctions on the North since 2006. In May, Russia and China vetoed a U.S.-led bid to impose new economic sanctions on North Korea over its high-profile missile tests this year.
Some experts say that Kim could likely bolster his resolve to retain his nuclear weapons because he may think the Russian attack happened because Ukraine had signed away its nuclear arsenal.
Relations between Moscow and Pyongyang go back to the 1948 foundation of North Korea, as Soviet officials installed young, ambitious nationalist Kim Il Sung, the late grandfather of Kim Jong Un, as the country’s first ruler. Since then, Soviet aid shipment had been crucial in keeping North Korea’s economy afloat for decades before the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
Moscow had since established formal diplomatic relations with Seoul as part of its hopes to draw South Korean investment and allowed its Soviet-era military alliance with North Korea to expire. But after his election in 2000, Putin actively sought to restore his country’s ties with North Korea in what was seen as an effort to regain its traditional domains of influence and secure more allies to better deal with the United States.
___
Associated Press writers Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul, South Korea contributed to this report.
AP · by AAMER MADHANI · September 6, 2022
2. S. Korea hosts annual int'l security forum on N.K. threats, regional peace
My friend, the Vice MInister of Defense Shin Beom-chul, must be the designated MND conference attender! I will be on a panel on north Korean provocations with him later this month at the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul.
Excerpts:
The three-day vice-ministerial Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) got under way at Lotte Hotel in central Seoul under the theme of "How to Address Complex Security Challenges: Fostering International Solidarity."
...
On the margins of the SDD, Seoul's Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul held a meeting with his counterparts from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to discuss various issues, including cooperation in stably implementing a road map for bilateral defense cooperation.
The road map refers to the so-called action plan unveiled last year to strengthen cooperation in maritime security, cybersecurity, disaster responses, peacekeeping operations, counterterrorism efforts and other areas.
On Wednesday, Shin is set to hold a series of meetings with three Asia-Pacific partner countries, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, to discuss cooperation in maintaining solidarity in the protection of "values and norms," according to the ministry.
(2nd LD) S. Korea hosts annual int'l security forum on N.K. threats, regional peace | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · September 6, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with details in paras 8-9)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Sept. 6 (Yonhap) -- An annual international security forum hosted by South Korea's defense ministry kicked off in Seoul on Tuesday for discussions on North Korea's denuclearization, cyberthreats, space security and other challenges.
The three-day vice-ministerial Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) got under way at Lotte Hotel in central Seoul under the theme of "How to Address Complex Security Challenges: Fostering International Solidarity."
The first fully in-person SDD session since 2019 brought together senior defense officials and civilian experts from 54 countries, the United Nations, European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
On the first day of the forum, the Space Security Working Group (SSWG) was launched as a new SDD gathering to discuss global cooperation in promoting security in the strategically crucial domain. Its inaugural session involved some 150 officials and experts from 37 countries.
At the SSWG session, Seoul's Deputy Defense Minister for Policy Heo Tae-keun stressed Seoul's desire to serve as a "bridge" to promote international cooperation in space security.
James Black, researcher at the U.S.-based RAND Corp., described the space environment as gradually "congested, contested and competitive," and called for "responsible" behavior in the domain, according to the ministry.
The Cyber Working Group (CWG) was also set to convene later in the day on the largest scale since its launch in 2017. This year's gathering of the CWG, part of the SDD, involved officials from 43 countries, NATO and the U.N.
On the margins of the SDD, Seoul's Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul held a meeting with his counterparts from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to discuss various issues, including cooperation in stably implementing a road map for bilateral defense cooperation.
The road map refers to the so-called action plan unveiled last year to strengthen cooperation in maritime security, cybersecurity, disaster responses, peacekeeping operations, counterterrorism efforts and other areas.
On Wednesday, Shin is set to hold a series of meetings with three Asia-Pacific partner countries, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, to discuss cooperation in maintaining solidarity in the protection of "values and norms," according to the ministry.
The opening ceremony of the forum is scheduled for Wednesday morning. South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup will deliver opening remarks, while National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han and the Netherlands' Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren plan to make keynote addresses.
The forum includes three key plenary sessions on cooperation in promoting North Korea's denuclearization and rebuilding trust within the Indo-Pacific region, and the role of the military in hybrid warfare involving both conventional and unconventional war instruments.
In addition, four special sessions have been arranged to discuss international peacekeeping operations, the fight against disinformation, defense technologies for military modernization and defense acquisition efforts.
Key sessions are to be livestreamed on YouTube.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · September 6, 2022
3. Activist floats balloons again despite North Korea's warning
Never give into north Korean rhetoric and threats.
Activist floats balloons again despite North Korea's warning
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · September 5, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — An activist said Monday he has again flown huge balloons carrying COVID-19 relief items and an anti-North Korea placard across the tense inter-Korean border, despite the North’s recent warning of a deadly attack over his activities.
Park Sang-hak, a North Korean defector-turned-activist, said the 20 balloons launched from a South Korean border town on Sunday carried 20,000 masks and tens of thousands of Tylenol and Vitamin C tablets.
He said one of the balloons carried a placard with a message that reads “Let’s eradicate Kim Jong Un and (his sister) Kim Yo Jong,” along with their photos. He said no other propaganda statements were carried by the balloons.
For years, Park has floated helium-filled balloons with numerous, small anti-Pyongyang leaflets with harsh criticism of the Kim family’s authoritarian rule in North Korea. But he’s recently changed his cargo to masks and other health products amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
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North Korea is deeply angered by such activism and has made the highly questionable claim that leaflets, banknotes and booklets flown from South Korea caused the country’s COVID-19 outbreak this year. Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of the country’s leader, said last month that North Korea would respond by “wiping out the South Korean authorities” if “rubbish” continued to be flown from South Korea.
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Days after Kim Yo Jong’s warning, a man wielding a steel pipe attacked Park at a rally in Seoul, breaking the activist’s arm.
Police said Monday the attacker was detained but didn’t immediately provide further details. Park said he believes North Korea has ordered pro-Pyongyang forces in South Korea to attack his group, a claim that cannot be independently confirmed.
In a failed assassination attempt in 2011, South Korean authorities captured a North Korean agent who tried to kill Park with a pen equipped with a poison needle.
North Korea is extremely sensitive to leafleting campaigns and other outside attempts to criticize the Kim family’s authoritarian rule of its people, most of whom have little access to foreign news. In 2014, North Korea fired at balloons flying toward its territory, and in 2020 it destroyed an empty South Korean-built liaison office in the North to express its anger over leafleting.
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Last year, South Korea, under its previous liberal government that sought to improve ties with North Korea, enforced a contentious new law criminalizing civilian leafleting campaigns. Park still kept launching propaganda balloons, becoming the first person to be indicted over the law that punishes flying leaflets, USB drives or money into North Korea with up to three years in prison.
But Park’s trial has virtually been suspended after he filed a petition requesting the Constitutional Court to rule whether the new law is unconstitutional, according to Park’s lawyer, Lee Hun.
Opponents of the law say it’s sacrificing South Korea’s freedom of speech to seek improved ties with North Korea. But supporters say the law is aimed at avoiding unnecessarily provoking North Korea and promoting the safety of front-line South Korean residents.
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Park faced separate police questioning over his balloon flights conducted before the law’s enforcement.
In March, he was handed a suspended fine of 3 million won ($2,190) for violating the law on donations. Prosecutors, citing a lack of evidence, had earlier decided not to indict him over other charges including an alleged violation of a law on inter-Korean cooperation. The suspended fine means Park doesn’t need to pay penalty unless he breaks law again and receives a prison sentence or bigger punishment during the one-year period, according to Lee, the lawyer.
Sunday’s balloon launches were Park’s fourth campaign to scatter medical relief items to North Korea. After his third launch in July, South Korean police said they were investigating his activities. On Monday, police weren’t immediately available for comment and Park said he hasn’t been contacted by police.
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · September 5, 2022
4. Hack on North Korea peace forum exposes participants’ personal information
Not behind the paywall at NK News. Must be a public service announcement for all those who attended the conference.
The "all purpose sword" strikes again.
Hack on North Korea peace forum exposes participants’ personal information
Unclear who is behind data breach from Korea Global Forum for Peace, which high-profile officials attended last week
https://www.nknews.org/2022/09/hack-on-north-korea-peace-forum-exposes-participants-personal-information/
Ethan Jewell September 5, 2022
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Image: Pixabay
A South Korean forum focused on North Korea issues has suffered a data breach, according to the event’s organizers, potentially exposing many in the DPRK watcher community to follow-up attacks.
The Korea Global Forum for Peace (KGFP), hosted by South Korea’s unification ministry from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1, admitted to the breach late Saturday, saying that a high-level email account was compromised and that the names, affiliations and contact information of event participants were leaked.
“After recognizing the leak, the corresponding mail account was checked immediately, and mail security measures were taken,” the organization said in a notice emailed to participants and seen by NK News.
The entity responsible for the attack on Aug. 29 is still unknown, but the breach is significant due to the high profile of participants in the event and North Korean hackers’ past efforts to target DPRK watchers.
The sitting U.N. secretary-general, past South Korean unification ministers and a former ROK special forces commander all participated in this year’s forum and presumably had their information exposed in the leak.
The secretariat of the KGFP told NK News that it has yet to identify the source of the attack. The organization also declined to say what law enforcement agencies, if any, it’s working with to identify the attackers.
Access to participant information could provide malicious actors an easy access point to potential targets. North Korea conducts much of its cyber espionage through highly targeted spear-phishing attacks, and just one well-placed victim could earn the regime hundreds of millions of dollars.
“The situation is still unclear,” Mun Chol-myung, who directs the South Korean security research firm EST Security, told NK News. “However, even before now, this [forum] has been the target of constant attacks.”
According to KGFP’s website, this year’s event was focused on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and ways to reduce military tensions.
In 2018, suspected North Korean hackers stole the names and addresses of nearly 1,000 North Koreans living in the South from unification ministry computer systems. Investigators later found that a single ministry-adjacent employee had opened an infected email, giving hackers enough of a foothold to swipe the sensitive data.
While the country’s malware has become increasingly sophisticated since, spear-phishing remains a tried-and-true method for getting initial payloads onto victims’ devices. Earlier this year, security researchers caught North Korean hackers distributing a particularly stealthy email stealer to DPRK watchers through spear-phishing attacks.
Ifang Bremer contributed to this report. Edited by Bryan Betts.
5. Adding Crisis to Crisis: Climate Change & Human Rights in North Korea
north Korea could be a case study in the effects of climate change.
Concluding Remarks
By 1998, the worst of the Arduous March had passed due to better harvests, an influx of international food aid, and the development of informal markets.[xxxiii] However, unlike the famine of the 1990s, climate change will have long-lasting consequences for North Korea. Bad harvests, sea level rise, and flooding will only become worse and more frequent over time. NGOs must be allowed back into the country to help with relief efforts for the climate disasters to come, as well as to ensure the adequate provision of aid to the most vulnerable groups in North Korea.
Pyongyang must take meaningful steps to prioritize the welfare of its citizens in the face of climate change. It should ensure a baseline level of transparency and access in line with international standards as it seeks international aid and assistance to counter and alleviate the effects of climate change. However, external aid cannot sustain the country forever. Without the reprieve of improving natural conditions, North Korea will face formidable challenges as it contends with serious climate change-induced crises in the coming decades.
Adding Crisis to Crisis: Climate Change & Human Rights in North Korea
https://www.nkhiddengulag.org/blog/adding-crisis-to-crisis-climate-change-human-rights-in-north-korea
9/6/2022
0 Comments
By Natalie Horton, former HRNK Research Intern
Edited by Raymond Ha, HRNK Director of Operations and Research
September 6, 2022
Over the next century, areas all around the globe will feel the effects of climate change as it puts strain on every system. North Korea’s limited capacity and willingness to effectively and comprehensively respond to these changes, including more frequent extreme weather events, will deeply impact the human rights situation within its borders.
Impact on Agriculture
More frequent extreme weather events and sea level rise will heavily impact the Korean Peninsula in the next thirty years, endangering the food security and infrastructure of North Korea. According to the Council on Strategic Risks, climate change will have noticeable impacts on crop yields by 2030, and inland flooding and sea level rise will similarly affect the country by 2050.[i]
North Korea’s breadbasket, the low-lying lands in the country’s western regions, will be particularly at risk for extreme rainfall, more frequent droughts, and flooding due to storm surges. Due to changes in precipitation and temperature, the region that produces nearly 40% of the country’s rice and 30% of its soybeans will experience up to an additional three months of severe drought each year by 2035. Rice yield failures will also occur more often—once every five years instead of once every seven years.[ii] Rice is one of the main staple crops of North Korea. With even less rice than the country can produce currently, the North Korean people will be in dire straits.
Food insecurity will increase due to more crop failures resulting from droughts and floods. Misallocation of food resources within the country will become even more serious, and corruption in this regard is likely to worsen. As of 2020, over 59% of North Koreans were food insecure. With worsening agricultural conditions, the country is at heightened risk of experiencing additional famines.[iii]
Increase in Flooding
Flooding will inundate many important infrastructural and agricultural areas in North Korea, both as a product of storm surges coupled with sea level rise, as well as a general increase in extreme rainfall events. Warmer temperatures and increases in humidity on the Korean Peninsula due to climate change will drive typhoons northward and increase their intensity. Damage from such storms has already been recorded during two successive typhoons in August and September 2020.[iv] The passage of Typhoon Hinnamnor through the Korean Peninsula illustrates, once again, the severe risks that accompany extreme weather events.[v]
Massive deforestation on North Korean soil will also contribute to the devastation following these rainfall events, as there will be no roots to hold soil in place and keep it from causing landslides and running into rivers when extreme precipitation occurs.[vi] The flood risk in Pyongyang, stemming from the Taedong River, is predicted to nearly triple by 2050, with 1-in-100 year flood events becoming 1-in-34 year events.[vii] The flood risk is projected to double in the breadbasket region of North Hwanghae Province, with 1-in-100-year flood events becoming 1-in-57-year events.[viii]
Flooding will inundate many agriculturally and infrastructurally important locations, increasing food insecurity, infrastructural costs, and displacing citizens from their homes. Prisoners of detention facilities are also likely to be affected, such as when Kyo-hwa-so No. 12 was damaged by typhoon flooding in 2016.[ix] Citizens of lower songbun will likely receive much less government assistance for both preventative measures and rebuilding and relocation efforts, rendering them extremely vulnerable to flood damage.
It should also be noted that North Korea lost 1.2 million tons of its grain reserves during the floods of the mid-1990s, as these reserves were held in underground facilities.[x] There seems to be no current information as to if the emergency grain reserves have been moved aboveground, or if the underground stores have been retrofitted to protect against flooding. Even if they have been retrofitted, it is difficult to determine the efficacy of the changes. This could prove to be an issue in future flood events.
Moreover, flooding could pose a threat to North Korea’s nuclear facilities, such as the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, located on a river to the north of Pyongyang.[xi] This facility uses the river for its cooling system. Flooding or drought conditions could critically affect reactor operations. During the Fukushima Daiichi Accident of 2011, when water surged from the tsunami and inundated the Fukushima facility, the water pumps for the nuclear cooling system were damaged, in addition to the diesel generator and electrical system. The damage to the cooling system and the electrical blackout greatly contributed to the reactor’s failure.[xii] A similar failure could conceivably occur at Yongbyon due to flooding if these systems are damaged.
On the other hand, if the country experiences a major drought, it could lead to insufficient water reaching the cooling system from the river, increasing the risk of accidents. Safety features have apparently been installed against flood damage at Yongbyon, but their efficacy is uncertain.[xiii] A flood affecting this facility could have massive implications for the health of the people in the area and further complicate the international community’s efforts to address North Korea’s nuclear program.
After Fukushima, many health consequences from radiation in the community have been observed, such as a high death toll among the elderly, more chronic diseases, and an overall decline in the health of the community.[xiv] This is not to mention the environmental consequences, such as soil and groundwater contamination, which require extensive efforts to reverse and make safe again for habitation.[xv] If such a disaster occurred at Yongbyon, similar human and environmental consequences could occur, affecting the health of countless North Koreans.
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise, exacerbated by storm surges and annual flooding, is projected to impact over 550,000 people in North Korea by 2050. The effects of these storm surges can already be felt in many coastal areas on the Korean Peninsula.[xvi] Inundation of key ports and airports will be particularly destructive, as many of these coastal facilities play an important economic role.[xvii] Repairs or relocation would also be very costly.
Particularly at risk is the city of Sinuiju, an important economic hub on North Korea’s border with China. According to Climate Central, sea level rise, compounded by storm surges and annual flooding, could overtake Sinuiju by 2050.[xviii] By that year, 800,000 North Koreans will be displaced or significantly affected by coastal flooding, as they live below the elevation of the projected flood levels. By the year 2100, one million North Koreans will be in that position.[xix]
In theory, Sinuiju and other threatened regions have several ways of protecting themselves from this outcome, such as building sea walls, elevating roads, or relocating citizens. However, it is unclear whether North Korea has the political will or the capacity to enact such major infrastructural changes.
Other Impacts
Additional environmental impacts that will likely greatly impact North Korea are the decline of fish communities in its waters, and the effect of droughts on North Korea’s hydropower facilities. Fisheries across the globe are declining due to overfishing, pollution, and temperature change. This is also true in the waters around the Korean Peninsula. Species diversity has been falling, and there are fewer fish overall.[xx] This does not bode well for North Korea, as many citizens rely on fish as a vital part of their diet, particularly due to shortages in land-cultivated food.[xxi] Fish also used to be an important source of income for the regime, until the UN Security Council imposed restrictions on exports in 2017. However, there is evidence that North Korea has circumvented this ban by selling fish through China.[xxii] The decline in fish population will directly affect the North Korean people and further constrain a key source of revenue for the regime.
Increased instances of drought could also weaken the country’s hydropower capabilities, resulting in energy shortages. Hydropower accounts for 55% of the country’s energy production. The possibility of that 55% being affected is a grave one, with far-reaching implications for North Korean society, including impacts on hospitals, factories, transportation, and households.[xxiii] Periods of increased rainfall will also occur, which may even the situation out if managed correctly.
However, North Korea’s economic interests may affect its policy decisions in this area. North Korea sells millions of dollars’ worth of hydropower energy to China each year.[xxiv] Energy is more profitable to sell during the dry season. Controlled releases of water downstream during drought periods could have similar effects to those along the Mekong River. During wet months, China has often withheld water using dams along the Mekong, and then released it all at once, causing flooding and wiping out downstream crops while seeking profit during dry months.[xxv] North Korea could use a similar strategy to maximize its profits during droughts in the future.
During periods of increased rainfall, North Korea is known to release large amounts of water downstream. Although such releases must be announced for safety reasons, North Korea has a history of causing damage downstream because they neglect to alert the South Korean authorities in advance. Without proper early warnings, these releases of water can be fatal.[xxvi] These events could become more likely in the future, especially if North Korea decides to get rid of excess water during periods of increased rainfall.
Overall, unsteady rainfall does not bode well for the hydropower industry or those who live downstream of hydropower facilities. These additional stressors will likely impact the regime’s ability to deliver food, shelter, safety, and energy, threatening the lives of millions of North Koreans and weakening the regime’s control over North Korean society.
The Regime’s Response to Climate Change
Outwardly, Kim Jong-un has committed to fighting climate change and mitigating its effects on North Korea. Pyongyang is party to relevant international agreements, including the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2016 Paris Agreement.[xxvii] North Korea has also pledged to reduce greenhouse gases by 15% by 2030, or even by 50% in the event that it receives international assistance.[xxviii]
One major issue, however, is that a large part of North Korea’s revenue depends on the export of coal, which the rest of the world is trying to phase out. Although the UN Security Council banned North Korea’s coal exports in 2017, it is still an important stream of revenue for Pyongyang.[xxix] The international community’s efforts to phase out coal will affect the regime’s finances.
The country’s impoverished state is also a large barrier to mitigating climate change-related disasters within its borders. Environmental solutions will require large investments, which the North Korean government will be unable to make without external assistance. This makes the country vulnerable in a host of ways, to both domestic turmoil and international interference, including debt-trapping infrastructural investment by China.
Although Kim Jong-un may be aware of the ongoing and future effects of climate change on North Korea, it appears unlikely that his regime will be able to respond effectively, due to not only a lack of funds, but also the rampant corruption and mismanagement characteristic of the North Korean government. Systemic inequality in North Korea pursuant to the songbun system will continue to threaten the lives of millions, particularly in the face of fewer resources and successive climate change-related disasters.
The Regime’s Response to the 1990s Famine
To understand how the North Korean government might react to crises resulting from climate change, it is instructive to examine the Kim regime’s response to the famine of the 1990s.
Due to a combination of external factors including the loss of Soviet oil imports, North Korea was in a precarious position in the early 1990s. When severe flooding occurred in conjunction with a bad harvest in 1994, rendering 15% of the country’s arable land unusable, the country descended into a four-year famine. In response, Pyongyang asked the international community for aid. The aid was mainly distributed to the military and the elites, while those of low songbun saw little improvement.[xxx] This further widened the gap between those of high and low songbun.
Although it received over $2 billion in aid from 1995 to 2005, Haggard and Noland note that North Korea “used aid…as balance-of-payments support” by “reallocating expenditures to other priorities.”[xxxi] Specifically, in 1999, North Korea slashed grain imports while “[allocating] scarce foreign exchange to the purchase of 40 MiG-21 fighters and 8 military helicopters from Kazakhstan.”[xxxii]
Similar mismanagement appears likely in the face of climate disasters, with far-reaching implications for human rights and potentially the stability of the Kim regime. What few climate solutions are implemented will likely be centered on the elite and the military, while those of lower songbun are left behind. This will apply to grain distribution, water and electricity rationing in the face of drought, and funding for preventative measures or the reconstruction or relocation of citizens and infrastructure. In the face of climate change, the prioritization of regime resources toward nuclear weapons and missile development will continue to harm the welfare of the North Korean people.
Concluding Remarks
By 1998, the worst of the Arduous March had passed due to better harvests, an influx of international food aid, and the development of informal markets.[xxxiii] However, unlike the famine of the 1990s, climate change will have long-lasting consequences for North Korea. Bad harvests, sea level rise, and flooding will only become worse and more frequent over time. NGOs must be allowed back into the country to help with relief efforts for the climate disasters to come, as well as to ensure the adequate provision of aid to the most vulnerable groups in North Korea.
Pyongyang must take meaningful steps to prioritize the welfare of its citizens in the face of climate change. It should ensure a baseline level of transparency and access in line with international standards as it seeks international aid and assistance to counter and alleviate the effects of climate change. However, external aid cannot sustain the country forever. Without the reprieve of improving natural conditions, North Korea will face formidable challenges as it contends with serious climate change-induced crises in the coming decades.
Natalie Horton is a senior at the George Washington University pursuing two bachelor's degrees, one in Asian Studies and the other in Korean Language & Literature, along with a minor in Chinese Language & Literature.
[i] Catherine Dill et al., “Converging Crises in North Korea: Security, Stability & Climate Change,” The Center for Climate and Security, July 2021, 1. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Converging-Crises-in-North-Korea_Security-Stability-and-Climate-Change_CSR_Woodwell.pdf.
[ii] Ibid, 3.
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid, 2.
[v] Min Joo Kim, “Typhoon Hinnamnor bears down on South Korea, bringing damaging winds,” The Washington Post, September 5, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/05/south-korea-typhoon-hinnamnor-storm/.
[vi] Jean Chemnick, “With Widespread Deforestation, North Korea Faces an Environmental Crisis,” Scientific American, April 19, 2019. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/with-widespread-deforestation-north-korea-faces-an-environmental-crisis/.
[vii] Dill et al., “Converging Crises in North Korea,” 5.
[viii] Ibid., 6.
[ix] Joseph S. Bermudez and Greg Scarlatoiu, North Korea: Flooding at Kyo-hwa-so No. 12, Jŏngŏ-ri (Washington, D.C.: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea), September 16, 2016.
https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Kyo-hwa-so%20No_%2012%20Flooding.pdf.
[x] John Hemmings, “Deciphering the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” International Politics Reviews 1 (2013): 73. https://doi.org/10.1057/ipr.2013.7.
[xi] Peter Makowsky, “North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Flood Damage Repairs Underway,” 38 North, July 12, 2022. https://www.38north.org/2020/10/yongbyon202210/.
[xii] “Fukushima Daiichi Accident,” World Nuclear Association, May 2022. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx.
[xiii] Dill et al., “Converging Crises in North Korea,” 5.
[xiv] Dennis Normile, “This Physician Has Studied the Fukushima Disaster for a Decade-and Found a Surprising Health Threat,” Science, March 4, 2021. https://www.science.org/content/article/physician-has-studied-fukushima-disaster-decade-and-found-surprising-health-threat.
[xv] Maria Burke, “A Decade on Japan Is Still Grappling with the Environmental Impact of Fukushima.” Chemistry World, March 11, 2021. https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/a-decade-on-japan-is-still-grappling-with-the-environmental-impact-of-fukushima/4013364.article.
[xvi] Dill et al., “Converging Crises in North Korea,” 6.
[xvii] Ibid., 7.
[xviii] Jacob Fromer, “Rising Sea Levels Could Inundate North Korea's Sinuiju by 2050, New Study Shows,” NK News, November 6, 2019. https://www.nknews.org/2019/11/rising-sea-levels-could-inundate-north-koreas-sinuiju-by-2050-new-study-shows/.
[xix] Ibid.
[xx] Suam Kim et al., “Climate variability and its effects on major fisheries in Korea,” Ocean Science Journal 42, (2007): 179–92. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03020922.
[xxi] Robert Winstanley-Chesters, “Fishing in North Korea, A History and A Geography,” in Fish, Fishing and Community in North Korea and Neighbours (Springer Singapore, 2020), 99–134. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0042-8_4.
[xxii] Sue-Lin Wong, “How North Korean Seafood Ends up in Countries That Ban It,” Reuters, December 20, 2016. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-northkorea-seafood/how-north-korean-seafood-ends-up-in-countries-that-ban-it-idUSKBN14A084.
[xxiii] Jason Bartlett, “North Korea Plans to Dig Deep into Renewable Energy Alternatives,” The Diplomat, December 7, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/north-korea-plans-to-dig-deep-into-renewable-energy-alternatives/.
[xxiv] Jeremy Page, “North Korea is Making Millions of Dollars Selling Power to China,” The Wall Street Journal, March 16, 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-is-making-millions-of-dollars-selling-power-to-china-1521192603.
[xxv] Brian Eyler and Courtney Weatherby, “New Evidence: How China Turned off the Tap on the Mekong River,” Stimson Center, April 30, 2020. https://www.stimson.org/2020/new-evidence-how-china-turned-off-the-mekong-tap/.
[xxvi] Da-gyum Ji, “N. Korea Discharges Water from Border Dam without Prior Notice,” The Korea Herald, June 30, 2022. https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220630000868.
[xxvii] Christian Davies, “Natural Disasters Drive North Korea's Embrace of International Climate Goals,” Financial Times, January 11, 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/d637c465-fc9e-4254-8191-193ac5eae30e.
[xxviii] Ibid.
[xxix] Troy Stangarone, “North Korean Coal Smuggling, Still Profitable,” Korea Economic Institute of America, February 27, 2020. https://keia.org/the-peninsula/north-korean-coal-smuggling-still-profitable/.
[xxx] Erin Blakemore, “North Korea's Devastating Famine,” History.com, September 1, 2018. https://www.history.com/news/north-koreas-devastating-famine.
[xxxi] Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, Hunger and Human Rights: The Politics of Famine in North Korea (Washington, D.C.: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, 2005), 10–11. https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Hunger_and_Human_Rights.pdf.
[xxxii] Ibid., 16.
[xxxiii] Jordan Weissmann, “How Kim Jong Il Starved North Korea,” The Atlantic, December 20, 2011. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/how-kim-jong-il-starved-north-korea/250244/.
6. The Korean Peninsula remains heavily militarized
A view (and reomnider) from Guam.
The Korean Peninsula remains heavily militarized - Saipan Tribune
saipantribune.com · by Rick Arriola Perez · September 4, 2022
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North Korea is a nation that has required military service of its citizens and is home to one of the world’s largest militaries in terms of total active-duty headcount. The United States and South Korea on a combined basis have hundreds of thousands of troops on the Korean Peninsula.
The American-South Korean partnership continues to persist despite military exercises being suspended by the United States when Donald Trump was in office. The United States remains the final authority on how war will be led and fought in union with the South Korean armed forces should hot war break out on the Korean Peninsula. Working through early warning ballistic missile launch and tracking tasks constitute one piece of ongoing bilateral military exercises.
There are thousands of Koreans who wish to see a reunification emerge on the peninsula because of family ties involuntarily severed decades ago. The South Korean government is sympathetic to seeing its citizens find some closure with relatives in the North.
Yet, based on the existing political structures and alliances that the South Koreans have with the United States and the alliances that the North Koreans have with Russia and China, a peaceful concrete resolution to the reunification of the Korean Peninsula is unlikely.
South Korea, with U.S. backing, has offered North Korea economic and humanitarian aid multiple times, with the condition that the North stops its nuclear weapons development program. As we are aware, this has not happened.
The North Koreans would benefit in some ways if they accepted aid from South Korea because millions of dollars would go towards improving the total infrastructure of the DPRK, towards improving agricultural productivity, towards natural resource swaps and exchanges (i.e. food importations in exchange for North Korean coal and natural resources) that will help DPRK’s population, as well as possible lifting of United Nations economic sanctions.
North Korea, however, continually interprets western overtures as an effort to further pressure its leaders into giving away the country’s political power and ability to govern itself. North Korea as we know, has balked at our solicitations and is currently preparing its seventh series of nuclear bomb testing.
North Korea activity
Because North Korea has remained a decidedly isolated, and permanent police nation state, it continues to find ways to bring in cash into its economy through cybercrime, arms deals, drug deals, sophisticated counterfeiting operations, prostitution, and other illicit activities.
North Korea remains ravaged in poverty due to the cumulative effect of natural disasters, limited national infrastructure amid tight government and technology controls, and food shortages, keeping most citizens poor, uninformed, and compliant.
The United States has placed a host of sanctions on North Korea in response to its desire to not be a party to the United Nations efforts to enter formal arrangements to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons program development.
What our Chamorro Pacific Islander people should know
North Korea has and continues to develop an elite cadre of computer savvy workers who engage in state sponsored hacking and stealing. A tiny portion of this cadre are assigned throughout Asia including the Republic of the Philippines and elsewhere, working in clandestine operations.
We should remember that the current overall geopolitical and foreign affairs infrastructure in place was hatched after the end of World War Two. We should remember that this overall framework has generally keep peace in this region, but at the same time, has caused environmental destruction from years of atomic bomb testing by not only the United States, but by European powers such as France and the UK.
We should consider once again that a large part of the ongoing political warfare between North Korea and the west is found throughout the cyberspace realm and that this kind of warfare can result in DPRK or China taking down the total infrastructure functionality of the Marianas Islands.
The problems of North Korea are clear; finding and implementing lasting solutions with the west that are acceptable to China, Russia, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are not. Structural opposing forces remain entrenched and will not go away anytime soon. This remains a core reason why the militarization of our overall region and our Marianas Islands chain remains so stark.
saipantribune.com · by Rick Arriola Perez · September 4, 2022
7. The Secret Weapons Scheme Spiraling Under America’s Nose
How many of you know my good friend, the "mastermind," Bruce Bennett.
Excerpts:
“Our clear objective is denuclearization,” Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at RAND, who masterminded the report and wrote half of it, told The Daily Beast. Bennett, who has written more than 100 reports for RAND, sought to temper some of its hardline conclusions.
“We really have to be realistic,” he said. “We don’t have a clear U.S. set of objectives.” Rather, “We have to put it in terms that at least the North Korean elites will consider,” he argued. “It’s in our interests to support a degree of individuality.”
The report, however, was largely critical—both of North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests and cyber program and of the U.S. and South Korea for their ineffective responses
But on a serious note, Bruce really was a mastermind in the late 1990s trying to educate the ROK/US alliance on the potential threats from chemical and biological weapons. He had a lot of traction among the military leaders of both the ROK and the US and they implemented a number of plans and changes to include the ROK Army producing additional chemical defense equipment. But the effort was not sustained over time and the basics of chemical and bio defense were neglected as the US moved to the GWOT in 2001. But the series of exercises that Bruce orchestrated for the alliance was cutting edge and made a significant difference for awhile. His work needs to be resurrected and updated.
The Secret Weapons Scheme Spiraling Under America’s Nose
DEADLY ARSENAL
New details have emerged about a menacing weapons of mass destruction arsenal in a country not exactly known for friendly relations with the U.S.
Donald Kirk
Published Sep. 06, 2022 4:44AM ET
The Daily Beast · September 6, 2022
Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty
SEOUL—North Korea is producing chemical and bio-warfare weapons capable of inflicting as much death and destruction as the nuclear warheads that U.S. diplomats demand the North stop producing.
That’s according to a lengthy study just released by the RAND Corporation and South Korea’s Asan Institute for the benefit of policy-makers in Washington and Seoul. The study says North Korea “has apparently amassed a substantial inventory of chemical weapons (reportedly 2,500 to 5,000 tons”) plus “an unknown quantity of biological weapons” and “a very active cyber hacker force.”
Among key findings, the report accuses the North of “apparently testing chemical and biological weapons on people and carrying out some assassinations with chemical weapons,” notably that of Kim Jong Un’s older half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, by a VX chemical as he was about to fly from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in February 2017.
In addition, it says, “North Korea has actively employed its cyber capabilities in peacetime to collect information, steal money, and cause damage”—most notoriously the hack of Sony Pictures in 2014 for The Interview, a wildly satirical comedy making wicked fun of Kim Jong Un.
“In wartime,” the report warns, North Korea “would likely employ all of its weapons of mass destruction and cyber capabilities, including nuclear weapons, hoping to win the conflict and avoid suffering regime destruction.” The whole panoply of North Korean WMD (weapons of mass destruction), says the report, “would substantially transform the nature of a major war in Korea,” inflicting “immense damage” on South Korean and American “military capabilities and civil society.”
The North’s chemical weapons would probably be the deadliest in its inventory of weapons of mass destruction. “A a kilogram of VX would be sufficient to kill or seriously injure 200,000 or so people,” says the report, but U.S. and South Korean forces “do not appear to be adequately prepared to counter the damage that would be done by North Korean CW [chemical weapon] use in a major war started by the North.”
Biological warfare would not be quite so deadly but would still rank high in the North Korean inventory. “Effective anthrax attacks would involve the use of far less agent than chemical attacks,” says the report, citing Kim Jong Un’s visit to a biopesticide plant as raising “serious concerns.” “In wartime, North Korea may well decide to use biological weapons,” says the report. “To achieve surprise, the North could carry out only selected bioweapon attacks before its main attack. After the main attack begins, the North would have great incentive to use bioweapons to attack key targets.
People watch a television news program showing file footage of North Korea's missile test, at a railway station in Seoul on January 1, 2020.
JUNG YEON-JE/Getty
Just as devastating, but in a different way, is the potential for North Korea to wipe out anything run by electricity, including the South’s entire electrical system, by detonating a nuclear device as high as 500 kilometers in the atmosphere.
“These electrical fields are generated by the interaction of radiation from the nuclear explosion with molecules of air in the upper atmosphere and by the heated plasma of the weapon debris itself,” says the report. Electrical fields, known as the electromagnetic pulse (EMP), “can potentially damage electrical equipment and electronic devices on the ground.”
And then there’s “the threat of North Korea’s cyber capabilities.” Indeed, “no tool in North Korea’s arsenal has the reach and diversity of potential impact as its offensive cyber capabilities, “ says the report. “At relatively low cost and in fairly short order,” it goes on, the North “can target adversaries overseas”
An unidentified rocket is displayed during a military parade marking the 105th anniversary of the birth of late North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2017.
ED JONES/Getty
“In terms of lives lost, people injured, and economic losses,” says the report, “a North Korean cyberattack could potentially cause between zero and thousands of deaths.”
The report scolds the Americans for having failed to seriously punish North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests. The U.S. and South Korea, it said, must warn Kim Jong Un of “the potential consequences that would be imposed for those provocations.”
RAND, funded in large measure by Army and Air Force contracts, admonishes Washington policy-makers for their reluctance to go beyond outraged words and sanctions after North Korea’s multiple tests. In March, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile claimed to have been a Hwasong-17 capable of carrying a warhead to targets anywhere in the U.S.
As North Korea prepares for its seventh underground nuclear test, the report harshly belittles Washington’s wavering responses to North Korea’s aggressive threats against the U.S. and South Korea.
North Korea has not conducted an underground nuclear test since exploding what may have been a hydrogen bomb in September 2017. Kim and his sister, Yo Jong, however, have waxed increasingly vituperative since the South’s conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol authorized the first U.S.-South Korean military field exercises in five years. North Korea denounced the war games, which ended this week, as preparation for “invasion.”
The report states bluntly that typical warnings of “consequences cannot be idle threats.” South Korea and the U.S. “must have the will to execute them,” it states, “or future deterrence would be undercut.”
“Our clear objective is denuclearization,” Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at RAND, who masterminded the report and wrote half of it, told The Daily Beast. Bennett, who has written more than 100 reports for RAND, sought to temper some of its hardline conclusions.
“We really have to be realistic,” he said. “We don’t have a clear U.S. set of objectives.” Rather, “We have to put it in terms that at least the North Korean elites will consider,” he argued. “It’s in our interests to support a degree of individuality.”
The report, however, was largely critical—both of North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests and cyber program and of the U.S. and South Korea for their ineffective responses.
Bennett recommended “putting pressure on Kim Jong Un” by adopting a “carrot and stick” strategy. In response to another ICBM test, he suggested deluging the North with USBs dropped from drones so North Koreans could tune in to South Korean K-pop and dramas, for which Kim has ordered lengthy prison terms.
But he preferred not to appear overly hardline considering opposition to hawkish policies in South Korea and the U.S. “The reality,” he said, “is to develop a consensus, you have to be moderate.”
The Daily Beast · September 6, 2022
8. Extended Deterrence and South Korea’s Role
I would be very surprised if the US was not consulting. If we are deploying assets for deterrence on the Korean peninsula I would hope we are consulting with the ROK at he very least so we can synchronize deterrence messaging. And by the way, for strategic assets to be deployed to Korea, the ROK has to approve every force arriving on the peninsula. Country clearance is required. Same for deploying assets to Japan - Japan must approve.
And I am pretty sure we have a plan for how to employ nuclear weapons.
I find some of the statements in this essay ill-informed. I also do not think north Korea has been very unpredictable. Sure we have been surprised by how far and how fast they have developed many of their advanced capabilities. But their actions have not been unpredictable.
Excerpts:
When North Korea shows signs of serious provocations, the United States will deploy strategic assets such as B-52 strategic bombers, F-35 stealth fighter aircrafts, and nuclear submarines based in Guam, Hawaii, and Japan near the Korean Peninsula. It is not known whether the United States is consulting with the South Korean government on the deployment of strategic assets. This is completely different from the case in Europe. In Europe, the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) was established to discuss and share the operation plans, objectives, and process on the use of nuclear weapons. Such a system also needs to be established for South Korea.
For credible extended deterrence, there must be a concrete plan of how nuclear weapons would be employed under which circumstances. It is unclear whether the United States has such a plan. The United States should formulate a detailed plan for nuclear use. South Korea and the United States must discuss the procedure in which nuclear weapons use would be decided and implemented, as well as to institutionalize such a consultative mechanism.
Extended Deterrence and South Korea’s Role
http://en.asaninst.org/contents/extended-deterrence-and-south-koreas-role/
- Issue/Region :
- Nuclear Issues,Security/Korean Peninsula,US-Canada
[Issue Brief] Extended Deterrence and South Korea’s Role.pdf
North Korea’s nuclear threat is increasing day by day, and South Korea’s security is getting more and more precarious. In these circumstances, it is fortunate that the United States offers extended deterrence for South Korea’s security. However, it is not clear what assistance South Korea can get and what role South Korea can play regarding extended deterrence.
The South Korean government said that it would respond to the North Korean nuclear threat by establishing a “Three Axis” comprised of a ‘Kill-Chain’ in which South Korea engages preemptively when it detects signs of an imminent North Korean attack; a ‘Korea Air and Missile Defense’ (KAMD) in which South Korea protects itself from North Korean missiles; and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) in which South Korea carries its massive retaliation against North Korea if it attacks South Korea. All of these measures, however, are based on conventional military forces and raise questions about whether they could counter a North Korean nuclear threat. That is, it cannot be certain whether the “Three-Axis” system pursued by South Korea is sufficient to counter North Korean nuclear threat. To compensate for this, the United States has decided to make extended deterrence more concrete. And yet it is not clear how the South Korea’s Three-Axis system and the US extended deterrence are interconnected and complementary.
South Korea is particularly anxious because South Korea does not know how the US will respond to the North Korean nuclear threat and with which means, and how South Korea can participate and be consulted when the United States decides to carry out extended deterrence measures.
Although South Korea believes in the US security commitment and its extended deterrence toward South Korea, South Korea cannot be assured because US policies often change from administration to administration. In 1969, President Nixon outlined his doctrine in Guam, saying “…as far as our role is concerned, we must avoid that kind of policy that will make countries in Asia so dependent upon us that we are dragged into conflicts such as the one that we have in Vietnam…as far as the problems of internal security are concerned, as far as the problems of military defense, except for the threat of a major power involving nuclear weapons, that the United States is going to encourage and has a right to expect that this problem will be increasingly handled by, and the responsibility for it taken by, the Asian nations themselves.” This was followed by the withdrawal of the 7th Division of the US Forces in Korea in 1971. It was around this time that South Korea began pursuing self-reliant defense and development of indigenous nuclear weapons. President Carter also pushed for the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea. Hence, it should be noted that whenever the US administration changes, policies can change as well. And South Korea’s security can be shaken; and therefore stable mechanisms are needed to reduce impacts of changes in the US administration. The security situation South Korea is currently facing is no better than when the Nixon Doctrine was announced, and South Korea needs to take minimal measures to protect itself.
It is a common sense in the international community that nuclear weapons can be deterred only by nuclear weapons. Just before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Soviet Union withdrew about 20,000 nuclear weapons from Europe, and the United States withdrew 6,000 tactical nuclear weapons that had been deployed throughout the world, including those in South Korea. The United States had deployed more than 900 tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea at its peak, and by 1991, the United States had about 100. It is estimated that North Korea currently possesses at least 30 to 60 nuclear weapons. To protect South Korea and US forces in the country, the United States should consider redeploying at least several dozens of tactical nuclear weapons out of 130 of them stored in the U.S. mainland to the Korean Peninsula. This is consistent with the concept of extended deterrence. The United States currently deploys approximately 100 nuclear weapons in Europe, and has Nuclear Sharing system with Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey, which allows these countries to participate in the NATO’s planning for the use of nuclear weapons and to carry US nuclear weapons on their aircraft in case of a contingency. It is hard to understand why the case on the Korean Peninsula is different from the case in Europe.
North Korea is an unpredictable opponent. Having failed economically and being only left with nuclear weapons, North Korea can strike South Korea in a surprise attack at any time. For example, if nuclear-equipped North Korea launches a surprise attack and takes by force a small island in the West Sea, South Korea will demand North Korea to withdraw. Then North Korea may threaten to use nuclear weapons against the South, and it is likely that South Korea cannot find proper measures to respond to the North Korean nuclear threat. In such a circumstance, it is questionable whether the United States will actively intervene and support South Korea.
For its survival, South Korea must review whether the US extended deterrence is functioning properly. In the process South Korea has to think first about what it should do. It is questionable whether South Korea is capable of keeping track of North Korean activities in real time. South Korea needs to know beforehand when Kim Jong-Un gives an order to launch missiles against South Korea, to whom Kim Jong-un gives such an order and how his order is relayed. South Korea should also know how long it takes for North Korea to prepare for a launch and how long it takes for missiles to reach South Korean targets, as well as how long it takes for South Korea’s responses to be mounted. However, it seems that is not the case at present. The entire process consists of three-steps: “see, decide, and respond”, and it will be fast paced. In order to properly respond under such circumstances, South Korea needs to consult and carry out the implementation process of extended deterrence with the United States.
When North Korea shows signs of serious provocations, the United States will deploy strategic assets such as B-52 strategic bombers, F-35 stealth fighter aircrafts, and nuclear submarines based in Guam, Hawaii, and Japan near the Korean Peninsula. It is not known whether the United States is consulting with the South Korean government on the deployment of strategic assets. This is completely different from the case in Europe. In Europe, the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) was established to discuss and share the operation plans, objectives, and process on the use of nuclear weapons. Such a system also needs to be established for South Korea.
For credible extended deterrence, there must be a concrete plan of how nuclear weapons would be employed under which circumstances. It is unclear whether the United States has such a plan. The United States should formulate a detailed plan for nuclear use. South Korea and the United States must discuss the procedure in which nuclear weapons use would be decided and implemented, as well as to institutionalize such a consultative mechanism.
9. Game-changer
A view from Korea on HIMARS in Ukraine.
I am surprised they did not make the comparison between the weapons of the ROK/US alliance and the north Korean People's Army.
An interesting conclusion. Is this a left handed compliment?
A country that went to a lot of wars is good at war. When a war breaks out in a peace-keeping nation, it’s difficult to keep the peace. This is the paradox of war and peace.
Game-changer
donga.com
Posted September. 06, 2022 08:06,
Updated September. 06, 2022 08:06
Game-changer. September. 06, 2022 08:06. .
The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System is a game-changer in the Ukraine war. The U.S. supplied long-range howitzer, anti-radar missiles, and Phoenix Ghost drones are doing well than expected. On the other hand, Russia faces mockery as it failed to show good performance of its weapons.
In addition, Russian weapons’ reputation is plummeting as well. But this is not the first time. During the 1948 Arab–Israeli War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union were in competition to send their weapons to allies. Some new weapons provided by the Soviet Union such as the Sagger Anti-Tank Missile, which destroyed Israel’s fleet of tanks or the SA-6 which laid the Israeli Air Force in ashes were game-changers. But overall, the weapons’ reputation of the Soviet Union got lower than before. Former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser requested Leonid Khrushchev to supply the weapons made by the Soviet Union. But Khrushchev hesitated because he was afraid of the orders and prices of the weapons being declined when people knew the truth about the soviet union’s weapons.
Why weapons of Russia and the U.S. are showing different scores? Range, rate of fire, and destructive power are the performances of weapons you can see in an actual battle that are difficult to verify on paper. soldiers’ combat capabilities differ more than five to ten times depending on whether he has real battle experience. This is also applied to weapons.
Another reason has to do with the balance of quality. A field gun with an ultra-high-intensity gun barrel can become a failure due to a faulty tire or wheelset with weak screws. The munitions industry can easily become a hotbed of corruption. There are a large number of weapons that can’t even go to the battlefield but expire in warehouses and shooting ranges. A minor defect can be easily overlooked in this system.
A country that went to a lot of wars is good at war. When a war breaks out in a peace-keeping nation, it’s difficult to keep the peace. This is the paradox of war and peace.
한국어
donga.com
10. [ANALYSIS] Korea's NASA: one giant leap for the country's bureaucracy
Praise for bureaucracy?
Tuesday
September 6, 2022
dictionary + A - A
[ANALYSIS] Korea's NASA: one giant leap for the country's bureaucracy
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/06/business/tech/Korea-Space-Space-agency/20220906150918451.html
SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle takes off from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. [KOREA AEROSPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE]
Korea wants its own NASA, pulling together all the disparate elements of the current space program scattered around government in various departments and agencies. It's just not clear how it's going to consolidate the various bits and pieces, and what sort of organization is the right one to get the job done.
The country is coming off two big space-related successes. In June, it launched a satellite with a 100-percent domestically-developed rocket for the first time. In August, Korea's first lunar orbiter was sent on its way atop a SpaceX Falcon 9.
To take the country's space program to the next level, a dedicated agency, modelled after the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), is the goal. It would be a soup-to-nuts entity, doing everything from research to developing policy support for the private sector.
Space initiatives in Korea are run and organized by various ministries, committees and other government bodies — including the Ministry of Science, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, the National Space Committee, the Ministry of National Defense and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration.
The lack of centralization leads to duplication of efforts and reduced efficiency.
"We will set up an aerospace agency similar to the NASA of the United States," President Yoon Suk-yeol said on Aug. 31. "It should serve its purpose properly as an expert organization, not a regular bureaucratic organization."
The comment was made in response to the request from Park Wan-soo, the governor of South Gyeongsang, urging the president to "set up an aerospace agency as soon as possible in Sacheon, South Gyeongsang, that would oversee all areas of the space sector — including the industry, national security, R&D and policy support."
Yoon added that "the officials from related ministries recently held a meeting presided by the presidential office to discuss the details on the establishment of the aerospace agency."
The government included the establishment of an aerospace agency in its national agenda, promising to set up an organization "to organize related programs across various ministries and tap into the expert capabilities of the private sector."
President Yoon Suk-yeol, center, speaks at the Yongsan presidential office after the Nuri launch on Jun. 21, promising to establish a space agency to boost the space sector. [NEWS1]
The plan is to include the establishment of an aerospace agency in a bill submitted to the National Assembly to revise the Government Organization Act. The Assembly will be in session for 100 days from Sept. 1 through Dec. 9.
What the president has proposed is tentatively categorized as a "cheong" in Korean, which translates as an "administration," "agency," "service," or "office" depending on the purpose. Cheongs normally operate under a ministry. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, for example, is a cheong, or standalone agency, under the Ministry of Health and Welfare.
If the new aerospace agency is placed under the prime minister, it would be named a "ministry," such as the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, and possibly a "committee" if it is directly under the president, like in the case of the Regulatory Reform Committee.
If placed under a ministry, the aerospace agency is likely to be more independent and agile in the decision-making process as a standalone agency. However, it would lack the authority and ability to oversee the space programs operated at other ministries, according to a study for reorganizing the national space program published by Science and Technology Policy Institute.
If it is organized as a ministry under the prime minister, it would have authority over other ministries, but wouldn't have the rule-making powers of a committee under the president. A space agency directly under the president would be able to take part in the legislative process and have more authority over other ministries and related sectors, but it may not be as agile, which would undermine its efficiency.
Some experts argue that the new aerospace agency should have a bigger authority than a regular "agency," or cheong, in order to become a central organization that oversees the government-led space programs as the Yoon administration claims it to be.
"It should not be a 'cheong,' and it needs to be under the president," said Chang Young-keun, an aerospace engineering professor at Korea Aerospace University.
A space agency under the science ministry would be far from the "NASA model" that the government refers to, argued Chang, as it is likely to end up as a mere bureaucratic organization.
According to Chang, NASA operates directly under the presidential office and mostly consists of experts specializing in the research and development of cutting-edge space technologies. Therefore "if the government really wants to refer to the NASA model, it should upgrade the Korea Aerospace Research Institute into a national space agency."
NASA is an independent agency under the executive branch.
As private sector engagement is the key to the establishment of the space agency amid the global shift to the private-led "new space" era, the new space agency should be an expert group to help boost the private sector, said Chang.
"The space program should be a project led by the president," said Yoon Ji-woong, professor at the department of public administration at KyungHee University, during a forum on space policy held in June.
NASA, which has been cited as a role model by the government, is actually equivalent to a ministry-level organization in Korea, said Yoon.
"I do not think that the space 'cheong' mentioned as a national policy agenda item should not and cannot be understood as the cheong organization we already know," said Yoon. "The new space agency should be set up in a new, innovative model, not bound by the old administrative structure."
BY SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]
11. North Korea's Kim Jong-un holds meeting on disaster prevention amid concern about typhoon damage
Showing some concern?
Tuesday
September 6, 2022
dictionary + A - A
North Korea's Kim Jong-un holds meeting on disaster prevention amid concern about typhoon damage
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/06/national/northKorea/korea-north-korea-kim-jongun/20220906095954077.html
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un makes a speech during a meeting on disaster prevention work held in Pyongyang from Sept. 4-5. [YONHAP]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un chaired a meeting to review his country's disaster prevention and response system, Pyongyang's state media said Tuesday, as the powerful Typhoon Hinnamnor hit the southern swathes of the peninsula.
Kim and other attendees checked the North's preparedness and discussed measures for strengthening its crisis response capabilities during the session held on Sunday and Monday in Pyongyang, according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Kim stressed the importance of boosting the counter-crisis capability to safeguard people's lives, saying "nothing is more precious for our Party and state regarding the people-first principle as the main political ideal than the people's life and safety," it reported.
He also unveiled "detailed tasks" of putting disaster prevention "onto a new level in the shortest period," it added without elaborating.
Typhoon Hinnamnor made landfall on the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula early Tuesday, putting North Korean authorities also on high alert over possible flooding. The North issued a heavy rain advisory for the border city of Kaesong and other regions in the country the previous day.
North Korea watchers say heavy downpours could deal a serious blow especially to agricultural output in the impoverished nation, which is apparently vulnerable to flooding due to poor irrigation and deforestation.
Yonhap
12. Forced labor victims say they don't want government's compensation
As I understand it they do not want money or an apology. They want an admission of responsibility and explicit admission of wrongdoing.
Tuesday
September 6, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Forced labor victims say they don't want government's compensation
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/06/national/diplomacy/korea-japan-forced-labor/20220906152138531.html
Foreign Minister Park Jin, left, and forced labor victim Yang Geum-deok, meet at her home in Gwangju on Friday. [YONHAP]
In concluding a series of meetings with civic organizations and experts to discuss Korea’s forced labor issue with Japan on Monday, the Foreign Ministry said it is well aware that forced labor victims don’t want the Korean government to step in to compensate them.
“We understand that the victims want compensation and an apology from Japanese companies [...] and that they don’t want the government to step in to compensate them,” said a Foreign Ministry official in a meeting with the press on Monday evening.
The consensus reached in the meeting on Monday was that “using the government budget [to compensate the victims] was undesirable and not appropriate,” said the official.
While the government may not step in, there are other ways for a third-party organization to do so, such as a non-governmental foundation created specifically to compensate the victims, said the ministry official.
“There was some discussion in the meeting about possibly compensating the victims through such foundations,” said the official.
The issue of compensation for Koreans forced to work in Japan during World War II dates back to a landmark Korean Supreme Court ruling on Oct. 30, 2018 ordering Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal, renamed Nippon Steel, to pay 100 million won ($72,780) each to Korean victims of Japanese forced labor during World War II. The Supreme Court made a similar ruling on Nov. 29, 2018 against Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
Korea’s top court acknowledged the illegality of Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule and recognized the individuals' rights to compensation had not expired.
Japan has protested the decisions, claiming that all compensation issues related to its colonial rule were resolved with a 1965 treaty normalizing bilateral relations.
Both Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi refused to comply with the top court's decisions, leading to a drawn-out legal process, a move that escalated tensions between Seoul and Tokyo.
The Supreme Court in Korea has yet to rule on whether to allow the liquidation of assets of two Japanese companies to compensate forced labor victims.
Victims of forced labor who attended the first two meetings hosted by the Foreign Ministry from July 4 boycotted the latest meeting after the ministry submitted a statement to the Supreme Court on July 26 asking it to consider its recent efforts to reach a diplomatic solution on the matter with Japan, before it rules on a case of liquidating Japanese corporate assets to compensate the victims.
These efforts include discussions between Tokyo and Seoul during a visit by then-President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s special delegation to Tokyo in April, when an alternative option to the liquidation of assets was floated in the form of a fund which both Korean and Japanese companies would contribute to.
Some victims including Yang Geum-deok and Kim Sung-ju called the ministry’s action a betrayal and subsequently asked the court for a swift ruling on the liquidation of assets on Aug. 11.
Yang in a letter to Foreign Minister Park Jin, who visited her at her home in Gwangju last Friday, reportedly said that she only wants an “apology and compensation from Mitsubishi,” and will not take any compensation from anyone else.
The meeting on Monday, the fourth hosted by the ministry, and the second one boycotted by most victims, will be the last of its kind, said the Foreign Ministry.
It said “other forms of communication” will continue with the victims, civic organizations and experts.
Yang writing her letter to Park on Friday. [NEWS1]
BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
13. 'Inflation Reduction Act is in clear violation of KORUS FTA'
'Inflation Reduction Act is in clear violation of KORUS FTA'
The Korea Times · September 6, 2022
Experts criticize US' protectionist political maneuvering ahead of election
By Lee Kyung-min
The much-contested U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) whereby Korean Electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries will have their tax credits denied or significantly curtailed.in the world's largest economy is a clear violation of international trade norms, experts said Wednesday.
They say that the protectionist stimulus package seeks to boost U.S. President Joe Biden's relatively low support rate of around 40 percent in the lead-up to the November mid-term elections, a last-minute move to change the political environment in favor of the Democratic Party.
The Biden administration began denying tax credits of up to $7,500 (10 million won) last month to buyers of EVs or fuel cell vehicles manufactured outside the country, as stipulated in the act. A portion of the tax credit ― $3,750 ― will be made available when EV makers use batteries made of at least 40 percent critical materials extracted or processed from the U.S. or countries that have free trade agreements with the U.S., or are recycled in North America. The percentage will increase in stages to 80 percent by 2027.
"The IRA is in clear violation of Article 2.2 under Chapter 2 Section A in the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA)," said Song Ki-ho, a lawyer known for his expertise in global trade norms. He led the global trade committee at Lawyers for Democratic Society before becoming the head attorney of Seoul-based law firm Suryun Asia.
Article 2.2 stipulates that the two parties to the FTA "shall accord national treatment" to the goods of each other. It is "with respect to a regional level of government, treatment no less favorable than the most favorable treatment that regional level of government accords."
In other words, it means that Korea-made EVs being denied the tax credit on the grounds of where they are manufactured could amount to discrimination against a product manufactured outside the U.S. and therefore would not be justified.
"Denying tax credits to EVs manufactured outside the country has the same effect as imposing tariffs," he said. "The discriminatory moves will not be remembered as a successful policy steps by its global peers."
Criticism in US
The sentiment is echoed by Mark R. Kennedy, a Wilson Center Fellow and a former member of U.S. Congress for Minnesota's Republican Party.
"I am pleased that the Biden administration has agreed to discuss South Korea's concerns regarding the Inflation Reduction Act," he said in an email interview with The Korea Times.
"Just as America wants to ensure that others abide by the terms of trade agreements, it is important that America does so as well."
His response follows his written analysis of the IRA, titled "Geopolitics, Competition, and the Inflation Reduction Act." The IRA in his view undermines the existing rules-based order.
"A key element of a rules-based order is embracing a level playing field instead of nations tilting the table in their favor," he said. "The IRA reflects a further retreat from global fairness. The European Union asserts that the bill gives advantage to American producers, discriminates against European producers and breaks World Trade Organization (WTO) rules."
Among the other negatives cited by Kennedy is the suppression of innovation. "A key American advantage over its authoritarian rivals is the innovativeness and efficiency of its market-based economy. Price controls suppress innovation and distort markets," he said.
Given the energy crisis Europe faces and Japan's need for energy, the IRA could have focused more on how America could help supply their energy needs, he added.
WTO engagement lacks tangible outcome
Korea seeking WTO mediation will not result in a meaningful outcome within a desired timeframe, according to Moon Jong-chol, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET).
"The prime minister, trade minister and top trade negotiator reiterating that the issue will be taken up for review by the WTO is more of a gesture in a broader context, not of anything tangible," he said. "Limited as the role of trade authorities can be, they cannot sit idly by when the country's leading growth driver industries are taking a hit. WTO dispute settlement is far from a silver bullet, and they know it."
The ultimate goal of the Biden administration is the establishment of far more extensive manufacturing plants within its borders, according to Han Sang-man, president of the Korean Academic Society of Business Administration.
"The U.S. president is desperate to swing public sentiment in his favor in the lead-up to the upcoming election," Moon said. "The message that foreign firms should build more factories within U.S. borders to create quality jobs will resonate with many working-class Americans. Whether the politically motivated policy will push up the approval ratings of Biden and the Democrats remains to be seen."
Trade Minister Lee Chang-yang went to the U.S. and met with nine U.S. members of Congress, Monday, to express his concerns about the IRA. Among them were members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, including Andy Barr, Claudia Tenney, Darrell Issa and Joe Wilson.
"The discriminatory measures by the U.S. could have negative impacts on Korea-U.S. economic relations at a time when the two countries are making meaningful strides in technological exchanges and resolving supply chain issues," Lee said in a statement provided by the trade ministry.
"Uncertainties must be removed for Korean firms, many of which are making investments in the U.S., a critical step in fortifying cooperation to advance healthy, long-term investments."
The Korea Times · September 6, 2022
14. N. Korea causing 'great concern' with continued nuke development: minister
Mr.Minister: I urge you to get to work on achieving a free and unified Korea to solve this problem. A UROK.
N. Korea causing 'great concern' with continued nuke development: minister
The Korea Times · September 6, 2022
Unification Minister Kwon Young-se speaks during a forum on North Korea policy in central Seoul, Sept. 6. YonhapSouth Korea's top point man on North Korea expressed concern Tuesday over Pyongyang's continued nuclear weapons development, citing its recalcitrance and the "complex" international security situation.
Unification Minister Kwon Young-se delivered the message during his speech at a Seoul forum on North Korea and unification-related policy amid a view that the secretive North has completed preparations for a nuclear test.
"North Korea's continued nuclear development is causing great concern in the international community," he said and added that external security situations surrounding the peninsula are "really not easy to deal with" in the midst of the emergence of crises related to health care, the economy and the environment.
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration has been striving for a breakthrough to improve inter-Korean ties but relevant efforts are not making progress due to the "complex international security situation and North Korea's rigid stance," the minister said. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · September 6, 2022
15. Korea expected to become world's most aged country in 2044
Korea expected to become world's most aged country in 2044
The Korea Times · September 5, 2022
Korea is expected to become the country with the largest share of people aged 65 years or older in the world in 2044 due to rapid aging, data showed Monday. Getty Images Bank
Korea is expected to become the country with the largest share of people aged 65 years or older in the world in 2044 due to rapid aging, data showed Monday.
The proportion of senior citizens in Korea is forecast to account for 36.7 percent of the total population in 2044, outstripping the world's most aged country of Japan with 36.5 percent, according to data from Statistics Korea.
The timing of the country having the largest proportion of senior citizens in the world will be moved up one year, compared with 2019, when the agency put its estimate at 2045.
The data was compiled based on the United Nations' outlook for the global population and the Korean statistics agency's 2020-70 forecast for Korea's population.
The data showed Korea will undergo aging at a faster pace, while its total population began declining last year amid chronically low birthrates.
The share of people aged 65 or older will likely reach 17.5 percent of the total population this year and rise to 46.4 percent in 2070.
Korea is widely expected to become a super-aged society in 2025, in which the proportion of those aged 65 and older will hit 20 percent of the total population. The country became an aged society in 2017, as the proportion of such people exceeded 14 percent.
The proportion of the working-age population, or people aged 15 to 64, peaked at 73.4 percent in 2012 and will further decline to 71 percent in 2022. The tally is likely to dip to 46.1 percent in 2070, the data showed.
Experts warned Korea may face an "age quake," an earthquake-like demographic shock from a fall in population and rapid aging, starting in 2030-40 if it does not promptly tackle the issue.
Meanwhile, the combined population of South and North Korea is expected to peak at 77.8 million in 2028, the data showed.
South Korea's total population fell for the first time in 2021, while North Korea's population is expected to peak in 2033. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · September 5, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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