Quotes of the Day:
"Insanity in individual is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule"
- Nietzsche
“It is not to political leaders our people must look, but to themselves. Leaders are but individuals, and individuals are imperfect, liable to error and weakness. The strength of the nation will be the strength of the spirit of the whole people.”
- Michael Collins
“What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.”
- Lord Melbourne (1779-1848)
1. N. Korea likely to hold military parade this week: sources
2. 2. S. Korea successfully tests SLBM from new submarine '
3. NATO accuses North Korea of ‘spreading dangerous technology’
4. N. Korea's trade with China plunges 82 pct on-year amid pandemic: unification minister
5. With restrictions lifted, South Korea launches $13B space power scheme
6. Resuming dialogue with N. Korea 'pressing' matter: foreign ministry
7. N. Korea promotes demoted military chief to member of politburo presidium
8. 'Chinese FM's visit to South Korea is to curb US influence'
9. Sources: Large numbers of North Korean soldiers die in hospitals for suspected COVID-19 patients
10. Military closely monitoring N.K. amid signs of military parade preparation
11. Post-Suga, no dramatic shift in Seoul-Tokyo relations expected
12. N.Korea Building High-Rise Apartments on Chinese Border
13. What Kim Jong-un May Learn from Biden's Chaotic Afghanistan Exit
14. High flying North Korean general promoted to senior party role
15. Kim Jong-un admits failure and calls for 'big leap forward' at rare North Korean party congress
1. N. Korea likely to hold military parade this week: sources
Don't we all love a parade? What is Kim going to show us?
(LEAD) N. Korea likely to hold military parade this week: sources | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES throughout with more info)
SEOUL, Sept. 7 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to be preparing to hold a military parade this week to mark the anniversary of the country's founding, military sources said Tuesday.
Earlier, around 10,000 troops were observed in the North Korean capital in a possible indication the reclusive regime is preparing a military parade ahead of its state and ruling party founding anniversaries on Sept. 9 and Oct. 10, respectively.
According to multiple sources, the parade is more likely to be held during the state founding anniversary which falls on Thursday this week, given the preparation status.
The event could be held at night just as the North did when it held previous parades, an official said, adding the North could unveil messages to South Korea and the United States during the parade.
"Under close coordination between the South Korea-U.S. intelligence authorities, our military is closely following the North's preparations for large-scale events, such as a military parade, in connection with its upcoming internal schedules," JCS spokesman Col. Kim Jun-rak said during a regular press briefing.
The signs of a military parade come after the North warned of a "serious security crisis" in protest of the South Korea-U.S. combined exercise in August.
In October last year, the North held a massive military parade to mark the 75th party founding anniversary and unveiled a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and other advanced military assets.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. S. Korea successfully tests SLBM from new submarine '
South Korea demonstrates superior technological capabilities over north Korea in every way. It could easily develop nuclear weapons as well. Remember South Korea has some 23 nuclear power plants and South Korean companies are among the leading producers of nuclear power plants around the world. If South Korea chose to it could easily outproduce north Korea in nuclear weapons.
S. Korea successfully tests SLBM from new submarine | Yonhap News Agency
By Oh Seok-min
SEOUL, Sept. 7 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has successfully test-fired a homegrown submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from a new submarine to become the world's eighth country to possess the weapon, sources said Tuesday.
The Agency for Defense Development (ADD) carried out underwater ejection tests of the SLBM from the Dosan Ahn Chang-ho submarine last week after successful launches from an underwater barge last month, according to the military sources.
The locally developed 3,000-ton class submarine is equipped with six vertical launch tubes.
After a round of additional tests, the SLBM will be mass produced for deployment, the sources said.
The SLBM is believed to be a variant of the country's Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, with a flight range of around 500 kilometers, and will be fitted with conventional warheads, according to the sources. The missile has reportedly been codenamed, Hyunmoo 4-4.
South Korea became the eighth country in the world to develop an SLBM after the United States, Russia, Britain, France, India, China and North Korea.
Unlike conventional land-based missiles, SLBMs are harder to detect as they are launched from submarines for surprise strikes, which is why they are often called "a game changer." The new missile is expected to serve as a key deterrence tool for South Korea, which faces consistent threats by North Korea.
The communist country has showcased several new types of SLBMs recently and is working to build a new submarine believed to be a 3,000-ton one capable of carrying SLBMs.
The defense ministry in Seoul refused to officially confirm the development.
"Our military secures advanced high-powered military assets to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula by building strong military capabilities, and plans to continue to develop them," the ministry said in a release.
graceoh@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. NATO accuses North Korea of ‘spreading dangerous technology’
This is the perfect article to invoke Bruce Bennett's name for north Korea; a noncompliant unsafe nuclear experimenter.
NATO accuses North Korea of ‘spreading dangerous technology’
Secretary general calls for a stronger NPT to ensure the complete denuclearization of North Korea
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Image: NATO | NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the 17th NATO conference on arms control and weapons of mass destruction, Sep. 06, 2021
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg slammed North Korea for violating arms control rules and advancing nuclear capabilities on Monday, calling for a stronger Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to help enforce global norms against nuclear weapons.
During the 17th NATO conference on arms control and weapons of mass destruction on Monday, Stoltenberg denounced the DPRK along with Iran for “ignoring or breaking the global rules” and “spreading dangerous technology.”
“NATO’s aim is a world free of nuclear weapons. And we are ready to take further steps to create the conditions for nuclear disarmament negotiations. But any meaningful disarmament must be balanced and verifiable,” Stoltenberg said.
The secretary general also criticized North Korea — along with Russia and China — for undermining international arms control treaties.
Suggesting the current NPT framework should be reinforced, Stoltenberg added that NATO would not unilaterally disarm: “A world where NATO allies have given up their nuclear deterrent, while Russia, China or countries like North Korea retain their nuclear weapons, is simply not a safer world.”
Stoltenberg’s latest remarks reflect NATO’s ongoing efforts to expand its focus to Asia and take a bigger role in addressing the North Korea nuclear issue.
In June, NATO issued a joint statement calling for the “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea” and urging Pyongyang to return to talks with Washington.
The joint statement followed encouragement from the Joe Biden administration for NATO to “deepen” cooperation with its allies in the Indo-Pacific. Experts assessed deeper NATO involvement in Asia, however, would push North Korea “even closer to China.”
Meanwhile, China’s director-general of Asian affairs Liu Jinsong met with the North Korean deputy ambassador to China Chung Hyun Woo on Monday and exchanged friendly talks on North Korea-China relations and common interests, according to China’s foreign ministry.
Edited by Arius Derr
4. N. Korea's trade with China plunges 82 pct on-year amid pandemic: unification minister
And China is obviously the north's leading trading partner.
N. Korea's trade with China plunges 82 pct on-year amid pandemic: unification minister | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 7 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's trade with China plunged 82.1 percent on-year amid prolonged border closures due to the coronavirus pandemic, the unification minister said Tuesday.
Minister Lee In-young made the remarks during a plenary session of the foreign affairs and unification committee at the National Assembly, saying that the North is focused on addressing internal challenges, including protracted sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic and recent flood damage.
The North's trade with China from January to July this year stood at around US$86.66 million, 82.1 percent of the trade during the same period last year.
The figure is also less than one-fifteenth of the trade before the coronavirus pandemic, Lee said.
"As the inflow of grain and other necessities dropped sharply from the decrease in North Korea-China trade, it is faced with continued instability in supply and demand in rice, food and medicine," he said.
He added that the North is currently building a quarantine facility in the border area to expand the inflow of goods from outside.
North Korea has claimed to be coronavirus-free but has taken relatively swift and tough measures against the pandemic, such as imposing strict border controls since early last year.
During the session, Lee also said that his ministry will continue efforts for the early resumption of inter-Korean dialogue and seek ways to engage the North in nuclear talks in consultation with the United States.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. With restrictions lifted, South Korea launches $13B space power scheme
Excerpts:
Hanwha Systems is involved in a state project to build high-resolution surveillance satellites, which would have civilian and military applications capable of monitoring North Korea and neighboring countries in near-real time. The company is focused on producing small, low-orbit satellites that weigh less than 100 kilograms.
That the satellites are lightweight allows for more to be loaded into one projectile and helps create a cluster of satellites that can be connected to provide an integrated communication system that can exchange observational information, according to the firm.
In its latest move to enhance space development capacity, Hanwha Systems spent $300 million to acquire an 8.81 percent stake in OneWeb, a low-Earth orbit broadband venture located in London, England, and the U.S. state of Virginia.
Meanwhile, Korea Aerospace Industries (ranked 57th by Defense News) pledged to invest $880 million over the next five years to expand its space business, including satellite production. The company hopes to launch a ground station and satellite imagery analysis service in a couple of years.
KAI established a partnership with the Korea Advanced Institute and Science and Technology to build a space research center, where engineers will carry out projects on satellite software, spacecraft and other mobility vehicles.
Korean Air, the country’s flag carrier, is working on a military project designed to develop an orbital launch vehicle using a Boeing 747-400 airplane.
“The development of air-launched projectiles, unaffected by weather and geographical requirements, is essential to attract the rapidly increasing demand for small satellite launches worldwide,” the company said in a statement.
With restrictions lifted, South Korea launches $13B space power scheme
SEOUL — South Korea has launched a task force to further develop space capabilities for its military, following U.S. approval earlier this year to lift a restriction on the country’s missile production program.
The vice chief of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, which made the announcement Aug. 19, will lead the team made up of key personnel from the Ministry of National Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Agency for Defense Development and other government organizations.
“The task force will draw up a master plan, in cooperation with related organizations and industries, to develop regulations, technologies, industries, facilities and infrastructure concerned,” DAPA said in a statement.
A week earlier, the agency endorsed a plan to invest nearly $13 billion over the next decade to help local industries develop technologies for military satellites. To that end, the Agency for Defense Development decided to transfer core satellite technologies to local defense contractors in preparation for the mass production of military satellites.
“Space programs can be developed further through active and organic cooperation between government agencies to address the various demands from defense, science and technology, and industry,” Seo Hyung-jin, vice commissioner of DAPA, told reporters. “In that regard, the space task force will play an active role in boosting the space industry under a midterm and long-term road map.”
The effort to bolster its space defense capability comes as the country saw limits removed on its rocket development in May. U.S. President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in, agreed to end a 42-year-old bilateral missile guideline that restricted Seoul’s ballistic missile range to 800 kilometers.
South Korea is now in the position to develop more powerful rocket engines and play catchup in the commercial space sector.
Commercial space projects in South Korea have seen tangible progress, with the country launching its homegrown, three-stage Nuri rocket, a $1.8 billion project designed to put a 1.5-ton satellite into orbit about 600-800 kilometers above the Earth this year.
The launch of the Nuri rocket, also known as KSLV-2, would be a major advancement over the two-stage Naro space vehicle built with domestic and Russian technology. The Naro was hit with delays and two failed launches before a successful flight in 2013 carried a 100-kilogram (221-pound) research satellite to space.
The Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1 launches from the Naro Space Center on Aug. 25, 2009. This was South Korea’s first space rocket, and it blasted off successfully, six days after a software glitch halted a previous attempt. (AFP via Getty Images)
Under a space development road map drawn up by the National Space Committee, South Korea would launch 110 dual-use satellites with the aim of nurturing the domestic satellite market and meeting demand, Science and ICT Minister Lim Hye-sook told reporters June 9.
Among the 110 small satellites are reconnaissance versions for military purposes; communications satellites for testing 6G broadband internet; and observation satellites for monitoring space weather.
“The space industry is a cutting-edge industry that’s based on intelligence but also a crucial one for national strategy in terms of securing national security and public safety,” Lim said.
Hanwha, which was recently ranked as the 28th largest defense company in the world by Defense News, is the most active domestic player in the expanding space market. Its three defense and aerospace business arms — Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Corp. and Hanwha Systems — have each developed space businesses, and the company’s so-called Space Hub task force was formed under the wing of Hanwha Aerospace in March.
“The Space Hub will orchestrate research, development and investments across a wide spectrum of business areas, including space launch vehicles, satellite-based communications, Earth observation (EO), and renewable energy,” the conglomerate said in a statement. “These efforts will play a pivotal role in helping Hanwha take the industry to new heights as a global leader in space.”
In a key step toward extending its space business, Hanwha Aerospace acquired a 30 percent stake in Satrec Initiative, a local company renowned for manufacturing high-end, small- and medium-satellite systems for Earth observation. Notably, Satrec is developing a 700-kilogram Earth-mapping satellite named SpaceEye-T. It’s designed to observe the Earth and provide imagery with resolution as high as 30 centimeters per pixel, with a goal to launch the satellite by early 2024.
Satrec Initiative’s Earth-mapping satellite SpaceEye-T. (Satrec Initiative)
Hanwha Aerospace is also involved in developing liquid engines for the Korea Space Launch Vehicle, or KSLV, and other components like turbo pumps, valves and thrust vector control systems.
Through a technology transfer from the state-funded Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, the firm plans to develop laser inter-satellite links. The company plans to apply the technology to a constellation of 2,000 satellites it is building for low-Earth orbit deployment by 2030.
Well known as a missile and ammunition maker, Hanwha Corp. is keen to develop a solid-fuel propulsion system, having only been able to produce liquid-fuel systems. In July 2020, the South Korean government received U.S. consent to use the technology on space launch vehicles. That fuel offers greater mobility for missiles and rockets, but Washington had previously imposed restrictions on Seoul’s use of solid propellant out of concern it could provoke a regional arms race.
“With the removal of restrictions on rocket range and solid fuel, we’re not limited to developing a solid-fuel propulsion system anymore,” a Hanwha official told Defense News on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussing missile technology. “However, there has yet to be any requirement for solid-fuel rockets for the military. We believe the space defense program is just a start and would take time to be materialized.”
Hanwha Systems is involved in a state project to build high-resolution surveillance satellites, which would have civilian and military applications capable of monitoring North Korea and neighboring countries in near-real time. The company is focused on producing small, low-orbit satellites that weigh less than 100 kilograms.
That the satellites are lightweight allows for more to be loaded into one projectile and helps create a cluster of satellites that can be connected to provide an integrated communication system that can exchange observational information, according to the firm.
In its latest move to enhance space development capacity, Hanwha Systems spent $300 million to acquire an 8.81 percent stake in OneWeb, a low-Earth orbit broadband venture located in London, England, and the U.S. state of Virginia.
Meanwhile, Korea Aerospace Industries (ranked 57th by Defense News) pledged to invest $880 million over the next five years to expand its space business, including satellite production. The company hopes to launch a ground station and satellite imagery analysis service in a couple of years.
KAI established a partnership with the Korea Advanced Institute and Science and Technology to build a space research center, where engineers will carry out projects on satellite software, spacecraft and other mobility vehicles.
Korean Air, the country’s flag carrier, is working on a military project designed to develop an orbital launch vehicle using a Boeing 747-400 airplane.
“The development of air-launched projectiles, unaffected by weather and geographical requirements, is essential to attract the rapidly increasing demand for small satellite launches worldwide,” the company said in a statement.
6. Resuming dialogue with N. Korea 'pressing' matter: foreign ministry
A pressing matter for South Korea perhaps. But what makes MOFA think that Kim Jong-un thinks it is a pressing matter? Does Kim really want to engage with the intent to denuclearize? I am just not sure Kim shares the same view as the South.
Excerpt:
"We are continuing efforts to reengage with Pyongyang based on the shared understanding that the resumption of dialogue is a pressing matter to move the denuclearization efforts forward," the ministry said.
Resuming dialogue with N. Korea 'pressing' matter: foreign ministry | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 7 (Yonhap) -- Resuming talks with North Korea is a "pressing" matter, the foreign ministry said Tuesday, after the U.N. nuclear watchdog revealed that Pyongyang appears to have restarted its plutonium-producing nuclear reactor.
"South Korea and the United States have been watching closely and sharing assessments on the developments in the North with regard to the nuclear activities inside Yongbyon," the ministry said in a report submitted to the National Assembly.
"We are continuing efforts to reengage with Pyongyang based on the shared understanding that the resumption of dialogue is a pressing matter to move the denuclearization efforts forward," the ministry said.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a recent report that the North appears to have reactivated its 5-megawatt reactor at its main Yongbyon complex, judging from possible activities indicative of a discharge of cooling water.
The North previously reprocessed spent fuel rods from the reactor to harvest plutonium for nuclear bombs.
Seoul and Washington have also been in talks on various ways that will help facilitate the reengagement, including cooperation in providing humanitarian assistance to the North, the ministry said.
The government will continue to call for cooperation from China, Japan and the European Union (EU) in efforts to bring the North back to dialogue and maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula, the ministry added.
On Afghanistan, the ministry vowed to continue to work with the international community as it closely monitors any change in the situation in the aftermath of the complete pullout of the U.S. troops.
South Korea has brought to the country a total of 391 Afghans who worked with the South, and their family members, in an operation to help them flee the war-torn nation now under the Taliban's rule.
elly@yna.co.kr
(END)
7. N. Korea promotes demoted military chief to member of politburo presidium
I will be looking for analysis from nK leadership experts.
One thing is for sure in north Korea, if you are fired or demoted and not executed you have a chance to be rehabilitated. Although you most likely won't be executed if fired in most other countries, the chances of being rehabilitated after some kind of negative action is slim to know.
N. Korea promotes demoted military chief to member of politburo presidium | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 7 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's military chief, Pak Jong-chon, has been elected a member of the Presidium of the ruling Workers' Party, state media reported Tuesday, in a comeback after he was demoted earlier this year for a lapse in anti-coronavirus efforts.
"The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the WPK elected Pak Jong-chon as a member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee and secretary of the WPK Central Committee," according to the Korean Central News Agency.
Pak was presumed to have been demoted from marshal to vice marshal in May after leader Kim Jong-un said a "crucial case" had happened that could threaten the safety of his people and country in nationwide anti-epidemic efforts.
He appears to have replaced Ri Pyong-chol, who was also believed to have been dismissed as a presidium member for a failed response in anti-epidemic efforts.
The politburo presidium, consisting of five members, including leader Kim, is one of the North's most powerful party organizations that determines key policies.
The KCNA and the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper also reported that Rim Kwang-il, who served as head of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the North's military intelligence agency, was elected as chief of the General Staff of the KPA. Jang Jong-nam, an army general, was elected as the Minister of Social Security.
kokobj@yna.co.kr
(END)
8. 'Chinese FM's visit to South Korea is to curb US influence'
Seems a little arrogant on China's part. Does China really think it can "curb US influence?" What does that even mean? And how do Koreans feel about that?
China could be threatening economic warfare unless there are pledges from the ROK for "no Quad plus with Korea" and "Five Eyes for Korea"
That said, we must not take our alliance for granted and we should recognize how important it is for the simple reason that China wants to attack it. We cannot just assume it will always be strong or we will always be allied. We have to work at sustaining the strength of the alliance.
'Chinese FM's visit to South Korea is to curb US influence'
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks during a press conference in Beijing, in this March 7 photo. AFP-Yonhap
Beijing seeks to pull Seoul from Washington's regional alliance: experts
By Jung Da-min
South Korea is facing a dilemma over how to strike a strategic balance between the United States and China as Beijing is set to increase its pressure on Seoul after Washington recently expressed its wish to bring more of its allies into the U.S.-led intelligence sharing alliance, known as "Five Eyes."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's planned visit to the South next week is, in this regard, interpreted as an attempt to urge Seoul to side with Beijing following signs of South Korea drawing closer to China's main rival, the U.S., especially in security sector, diplomatic watchers here said.
According to the foreign ministry, Tuesday, Wang will visit Seoul Sept. 14 and 15 for talks with his counterpart Chung Eui-yong. He may also meet with President Moon Jae-in.
His last visit to South Korea took place last November, and the two foreign ministers had their last in-person meeting in April in China's Xiamen.
The ministry said during Wang's visit, the ministers will seek to improve cooperation for future-oriented relations between the two countries ahead of the 30th anniversary of the forging of diplomatic ties next year.
But there is wide speculation among diplomatic analysts here that Wang's visit to Seoul is China's move to check the U.S. by solidifying cooperative relations with South Korea amid intensifying rivalry between the two superpowers.
Park Won-gon, a professor with Ewha Womans University's Department of North Korea Studies, said recent international developments, especially the U.S.
withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan has made China nervous, especially after President Joe Biden said he would not continue the unending war there but rather focus on the growing competition between his country, China and Russia.
"Beijing's biggest concern is the Biden administration's hardline policy toward China. … Withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. said it will instead put more focus on the security situation in Northeast Asia, referring to threats posed by China, Russia and North Korea. When the main target of the U.S. is China, China wants to break the weakest link in the U.S. alliance network in the region, meaning South Korea," Park said.
Experts said the South Korean government is officially maintaining strategic ambiguity between China and the U.S. but recent diplomatic moves by Seoul were focused on strengthening its alliance with Washington, and this may have made Beijing nervous.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives submitted a bill for the National Defense Authorization for the 2022 fiscal year, asking the U.S. administration to consider expanding the intelligence-sharing network of the Five Eyes countries to include four more countries including South Korea.
The intelligence-sharing alliance currently consists of the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Although South Korea joining the Five Eyes in the near future is unlikely considering other factors such as being accepted by the four other constituent countries and Seoul's diplomatic challenges in keeping a balance between the U.S. and China, Washington's message on strengthening the regional alliance against China is inciting Beijing to encourage the South to break away from the alliance, according to experts.
In a joint statement following the summit between President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington, D.C., May 21, the two mentioned "preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," a very sensitive issue for China that sees Taipei as part of its "One China" policy.
"In the joint statement at the May 21 summit, the South Korean government stood together with the U.S. to raise the issue with China on sensitive issues such as its territorial disputes with Taiwan in the South China Sea, in accordance with the liberal international order and principles," said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
Shin said South Korea should have its own principles in the situation where it is receiving pressure from both the U.S. and China.
"However, the government is still officially keeping a strategic ambiguity, leaving room for China to seek to pull Seoul away from the U.S. alliance," Park said.
9. Sources: Large numbers of North Korean soldiers die in hospitals for suspected COVID-19 patients
Of course this is unconfirmed RUMINT. However, if true this is a huge indicator and a potential turning point for the regime. Just ask yourself: If I am Kim and my army is being decimated by COVID what do I do next? Are we thinking through all the possible scenarios and re-examining our contingency plans?
Adapted from a briefing I gave to State on Contingency planning last year (first bullet adapted slightly based on recent Afghanistan lessons!):
•NEO – Korea, Japan, Taiwan – Afghanistan Lessons
•Learning that KJU is no longer in power – how to engage?
•Regime instability and Collapse
•Conflict/War – Taiwan and Korean Peninsula - sequential or simultaneous – Can we do both?
•Post-collapse and post-conflict in north Korea
•Unification
•Chinese intervention in Korea
•COVID response throughout Asia
•From the 1990’s military planning for instability and collapse
•HA/DR
•Provocations
•Refugee flows
•Hostages
•WMD
•Civil War
Big 8 Contingencies
1. Provocations to gain political and economic concessions
2. nk Attack – execution of the nK campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force
3. Civil War/Chaos/Anarchy
4. Refugee crisis
5. Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster relief
6. WMD, loss of control – seize and secure operations
7. Resistance to foreign intervention (e.g., insurgency)
8. How to handle the nKPA during regime collapse short of war
Sources: Large numbers of North Korean soldiers die in hospitals for suspected COVID-19 patients - Daily NK
The deaths are believed to have been the “decisive reason” for the call to strengthen COVID-19 quarantine efforts during the expanded politburo meeting last Thursday
North Korean military authorities are in shock after mass deaths occurred at hospitals for soldiers suspected of having COVID-19, multiple sources inside the country have reported.
News of the deaths made it all the way to the desk of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who was reportedly furious. The deaths are believed to have been the “decisive reason” for the call to strengthen COVID-19 quarantine efforts during the expanded politburo meeting on Thursday.
A military source in Gangwon Province told Daily NK on Monday that 45 soldiers died in July and August at a temporary ward for “infectious diseases” operated by the headquarters of Second Corps. “The ward was closed and the patients moved to another makeshift facility after the total was reported to the Army Health Bureau under the title of ‘Death Statistics for the Operational and Combat Political Training Period of 2020-2021,’” he said.
Likewise, a military source in Nampo said on Saturday that the Army Health Bureau received statistics on deaths at a Second Corps COVID-19 ward during the summer and winter training periods. “The hospital is in a chaotic state after being reprimanded,” he said. This means the ward was rebuked by its superiors due to the unexpectedly high number of deaths.
The problem does not stop there. Military authorities are rumored to be in a state of shock as general statistics reveal far more deaths than expected across the entire military.
Front-line corps such as the First and Second Corps had the highest numbers of deaths, followed by corps stationed along the Sino-North Korean frontier and command headquarters. The next highest number of deaths were recorded by “rear-area corps” and training camps. The Second and Third Corps had the highest number of deaths at wards for suspected COVID-19 cases.
“[North Korean military authorities] seem quite shocked that there were this many deaths, despite putting the strongest quarantine measures in place,” said the source. “The Supreme Leader [Kim Jong Un] was also very angry, and they’re saying that the only thing to do is call loudly for more intensified quarantine efforts.”
Lackadaisical measures are apparently to blame for the mass deaths.
North Korean soldiers walking near Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province. / Image: Daily NK
Until last year, with military authorities believing the COVID-19 pandemic would soon end, military units employed temporary expediencies such as converting a floor of a tuberculosis ward into a COVID-19 ward or putting beds in a warehouse to quarantine suspected cases.
However, with the military ordering mass quarantines due to outbreaks of fever across all corps during the winter training period, which began from Dec. 1, the authorities began building temporary makeshift facilities deep in the mountains, far from the units themselves. This means COVID-19 quarantines had been carried out in clumsy fashion.
Moreover, there were no precise “diagnoses” or “treatments” handed out by doctors to patients.
The source said patients suffering from tuberculosis, hepatitis or even colds were “mercilessly” placed in the temporary wards “as if they’d been kidnapped” and failed to receive precise diagnoses regarding their ailments.
They were given “no medical or pathological treatment whatsoever, just a daily temperature check and a daily dose of sunlight,” the source explained.
Patients were given no proper nutrition, either. Quarantined soldiers were given just 450 grams of cold mixed grains (150 grams per meal) and black salted cabbage soup a day.
Unable to reveal the existence of these temporary wards, military units attempted to cover up the deaths, informing families that the soldiers had died in “accidents.” However, after quarreling with the military to receive certificates that their loved ones died in action, the bereaved families appealed to the Ministry of Defense as a last resort.
Only after being rebuked by the ministry did military units start filing proper reports. Word then started making its way to some military families as well. According to the source, families worry that the military “cannot guarantee another mass death won’t happen when soldiers have to live together in a barracks.”
Meanwhile, in accordance with military regulations, the Army Health Bureau must write an evaluation every August — one month prior to the conclusion of the year’s training on Sept. 30 — detailing the number of hospitalizations across the entire military, along with the number of deaths during the training period and the causes.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
10. Military closely monitoring N.K. amid signs of military parade preparation
Interesting that it was yesterday the Ministry of Unification announced that it was monitoring the parade. Was it out ahead of the military? It should go without saying MIND and NIS will be monitoring these events. But did MND have to put out this statement because of MOU's statement yesterday? Is there some interagency competition and friction? It always seems like MOU is overstepping its boundaries and infringing on the areas that belong to MND, NIS, and MOFA.
Military closely monitoring N.K. amid signs of military parade preparation | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 7 (Yonhap) -- The military is closely monitoring North Korea amid signs it is preparing a large-scale military parade to celebrate major national anniversaries, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Tuesday.
Earlier, around 10,000 troops were observed in Pyongyang in a possible indication the reclusive regime is preparing a military parade ahead of its state and ruling party founding anniversaries on Sept. 9 and Oct. 10, respectively, according to sources.
"Under close coordination between the South Korea-U.S. intelligence authorities, our military is closely following the North's preparations for large-scale events such as a military parade in connection with its upcoming internal schedules," JCS spokesman Col. Kim Jun-rak said during a regular press briefing.
The signs of a military parade come after the North warned of a "serious security crisis" in protest of the South Korea-U.S. combined exercise in August.
In October last year, the North held a massive military parade to mark the 75th party founding anniversary and unveiled a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and other advanced military assets.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
11. Post-Suga, no dramatic shift in Seoul-Tokyo relations expected
Unfortunate but probably accurate.
Post-Suga, no dramatic shift in Seoul-Tokyo relations expected
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will likely maintain adamant stance on Korea no matter who takes the top job.
Published : Sept 7, 2021 - 16:30 Updated : Sept 7, 2021 - 17:39
Flags of Japan and South Korea (123rf)
The Japanese government is set for a leadership change, but a dramatic turnaround in Seoul-Tokyo relations is unlikely, experts say.
In the wake of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s abrupt decision to step down last Friday, many here are wondering what the new Japanese leadership will mean for South Korea as an array of candidates vies to succeed Suga at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, set for Sept. 29.
The new LDP president is effectively assured of becoming the next prime minister, as the LDP holds a parliamentary majority.
So far, Fumio Kishida, the former foreign minister under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has already thrown his hat in the ring, while several others, including Taro Kono, the popular minister in charge of COVID-19 vaccination, and Sanae Takaichi, a former internal affairs minister who is backed by Abe, are looking to join the heated race.
A new leader could mean a fresh foreign policy perspective from Tokyo. But when it comes to Seoul-Tokyo ties, analysts here are pessimistic. They view a dramatic shift in bilateral relations as unlikely and say the LDP’s stance on Korea won’t change no matter who takes the top job.
“The Seoul-Tokyo issue is not Japan’s top priority for the new administration, which has to deal with domestic issues and the economy,” said Choi Eun-mi, a Japan expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
“Especially with the upcoming presidential election in South Korea, it is hard to expect any drastic change in Seoul-Tokyo relations in the near term.”
Resolving the historical issues at the center of the feud -- including wartime sexual slavery and forced labor -- will be difficult, she said, as the new leader will not go against the public’s expectation of a hawkish position toward Seoul.
“But at the very least, there could be some improvement in areas of resuming bilateral exchange that was ceased due to the COVID-19 situation, as well as in trade,” said Choi.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, echoed a similar view, saying Tokyo’s stance on historical issues will remain unchanged despite apparent generational changes in Japanese politics.
“Generational change in the ruling LDP could produce forward-leaning policies, including better valuing Seoul as a partner. But while the LDP maintains power, Tokyo’s stance on history issues is unlikely to change until Korea domestically resolves conflicting court rulings,” said Easley. “The challenge for Japan’s next prime minister isn’t about being conciliatory, it’s about not appearing weak.”
Seoul-Tokyo ties have deteriorated further under Suga since he took office last September after his predecessor Abe resigned due to health problems.
During Suga’s tenure, Korean President Moon Jae-in has been seeking to mend ties with Tokyo. But no significant progress has been made as the neighbors still remain miles apart on key historical matters, including compensation for wartime forced laborers and sexual slavery victims, coupled with Tokyo’s recent decision to discharge radioactive wastewater from the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea.
Japan continues to insist that all wartime issues were settled under a 1965 treaty that normalized bilateral relations. It also asserts that the 2015 agreement on “comfort women” resolved the matter of sexual slavery “finally and irreversibly.”
But many in Korea believe Japan has not taken adequate responsibility for its colonial atrocities. As a result, victims, while demanding a sincere apology from Japan, have also sought justice in court.
In 2018, Korea’s Supreme Court ruled that Japanese firms must compensate the Korean victims who were forced to work in their factories during World War II. In apparent retaliation, Japan in 2019 slapped export controls on chemicals vital to the Korean semiconductor industry, and hasn’t entirely lifted them.
With a Seoul court moving to seize assets held by a Japanese company here so that compensation can be provided to plaintiffs, there are fears that the already fragile relations between the two countries could worsen.
For Moon, time is not on his side as his single five-year term ends next May. Moon’s last-minute decision to not visit Japan for the Tokyo Olympics in July dashed hopes of a breakthrough.
Analysts say until Seoul picks a new president in March, Japan will focus on maintaining the status quo and will not be inclined to shift its tone first.
“The newly elected president is the face of the LDP that has to carry the party into the general election later this year, as well as an upper house election next July,” said Jin Chang-soo, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Sejong Institute. “Japan will focus on managing the administration for the time being, and less inclined to take forward-looking steps with South Korea.”
In the upcoming LDP election, Kono and Kishida are regarded as the two leading candidates. They have both served as foreign ministers in the hawkish Abe administration and are likely to maintain a tough stance against Seoul.
“The two will most likely stress that South Korea needs to keep its promises first, and unlikely to budge first,” said Jin. “Then it will be largely be up to Seoul to come up with a new solution. This will be unlikely during the current Moon government, but could be possible when the administration changes.”
12. N.Korea Building High-Rise Apartments on Chinese Border
Kim embarrassed? So he wastes precious resources building high rises. This is why the suffering of the Korean people in the north is a result of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions (which seem to be influenced by his ego).
Yet the high-risers, which are a rarity outside Pyongyang, keep going up, perhaps in anticipation of the end of the pandemic. Rumors circulating in Dandong say North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered them to be erected because he was embarrassed by the contrast between wealthy Chinese Dandong and shabby low-rise Sinuiju.
The contrast is highlighted by a cluster of high-risers of 40 stories or more on the Dandong side. A Sinuiju resident of Chinese descent, who has been staying in Dandong since borders were closed, said, "They've demolished many one-story houses to build the apartments in Sinuiju. North Korea must be carrying out the construction with building materials from China because they don't have them there."
Another Dandong resident said, "One change is that the lights are on in and around the construction site." All of Sinuiju, except a lighting tower in the railway station plaza, used to be blacked out at night due to the North's chronic power shortage, but now some street lights can be spotted across the water, probably powered by solar panels recently imported from China.
Tight security prevents ordinary North Koreans from getting too close to the river in case they flee across, so the apartments on the river bank must be either a Potemkin village or designed with Chinese residents in mind. The nearby Yalu River Broken Bridge is a moderately famous tourist spot for Chinese people.
N.Korea Building High-Rise Apartments on Chinese Border
September 07, 2021 13:37
North Korea is rushing to complete a cluster side of high-rise apartments in Sinuiju on the Chinese border.
"I wonder what they're doing even though the borders are sealed," a local in Dandong on the Chinese side of the Apnok or Yalu River said.
Five or six 15-story apartment buildings are under construction right on the river bank and the raw structures are already finished.
North Korea sealed its borders at the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic early last year. The road and railway between Dandong and Sinuiju, which used to carry 70 percent of trade volume between the two countries, are closed, though some farming supplies like fertilizer have been imported by sea.
Apartments are under construction in Sinuiju as seen from Dandong, China on Aug. 28.
Yet the high-risers, which are a rarity outside Pyongyang, keep going up, perhaps in anticipation of the end of the pandemic. Rumors circulating in Dandong say North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered them to be erected because he was embarrassed by the contrast between wealthy Chinese Dandong and shabby low-rise Sinuiju.
The contrast is highlighted by a cluster of high-risers of 40 stories or more on the Dandong side. A Sinuiju resident of Chinese descent, who has been staying in Dandong since borders were closed, said, "They've demolished many one-story houses to build the apartments in Sinuiju. North Korea must be carrying out the construction with building materials from China because they don't have them there."
Another Dandong resident said, "One change is that the lights are on in and around the construction site." All of Sinuiju, except a lighting tower in the railway station plaza, used to be blacked out at night due to the North's chronic power shortage, but now some street lights can be spotted across the water, probably powered by solar panels recently imported from China.
Tight security prevents ordinary North Koreans from getting too close to the river in case they flee across, so the apartments on the river bank must be either a Potemkin village or designed with Chinese residents in mind. The nearby Yalu River Broken Bridge is a moderately famous tourist spot for Chinese people.
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
13. What Kim Jong-un May Learn from Biden's Chaotic Afghanistan Exit
My latest thoughts.
What Kim Jong-un May Learn from Biden's Chaotic Afghanistan Exit
As the dust is settling from the fallout of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Americans and allies will be conducting after-action reviews to determine what went wrong even as efforts by the State Department and myriad veteran, private, and non-governmental organizations continue to ensure no one is left behind. The revisionist and rogue powers and violent extremist organizations will also be examining what happened to determine what they can exploit in the future. While the U.S. conducts its post-mortem it is important to discern what lessons adversaries will take from the recent events.
Of the five major threats to the U.S., North Korea would seem the least likely to exploit what has taken place. However, to overlook what Kim might do would be a strategic error. Fortunately, Robert Collins has already provided a very important assessment of the likely guidance Kim Jong-un is providing to the Workers Party of Korea and the North Korean People's Army. However, there is one specific area that requires some consideration by policymakers and strategists: How can the Kim family regime support its political warfare strategy by creating the conditions to cause the U.S. to decide to evacuate non-combatants from South Korea?
There is an overarching lesson from the recent Afghanistan situation that both the U.S. and North Korea can draw when it comes to Noncombatant Evacuation Order (NEO) Operations and that is there are two related two imperatives: First is an early decision to execute will increase the chance of a successful evacuation. Second, is that noncombatants must be withdrawn before the military withdraws. In South Korea, NEO operations are complex and require a much greater effort than just took place in Afghanistan. Specifically for Korea, these two imperatives can be translated to mean there must be an early decision to evacuate before the ROK/U.S. combined military forces are engaged in defending South Korea from an attack by the North. While this appears to be a logical and prudent lesson it is one that Kim Jong-un can exploit in ways not generally considered and it can be done without ultimately going to war.
Kim is facing a range of complex domestic problems: defense against COVID, a failed economy, natural disasters, external information influencing unrest among the population, and international sanctions. He is cracking down on the Korean people in the north with draconian population and resources control measures. He has closed the borders with China and Russia as a COVID mitigation measure and this has led to further damage to the already failed economy.
To maintain control inside north Korea it is necessary to ensure the people know they must sacrifice to contribute to defending against the threat. The regime’s consistent propaganda has engrained this into all Koreans in the north. The regime’s strategy toward the ROK/U.S. alliance is a sophisticated political warfare strategy that is based on subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and the use of force to dominate the Korean peninsula to ensure regime survival. One of the major lines of effort is to split the ROK/U.S. alliance with the intent to give the North a superior balance of combat power. Based on what happened in Afghanistan, Kim Jong-un may sense a new course of action that will both subvert the South and drive a wedge in the ROK/U.S. alliance as well as ensure the Korean people in the North see the continued threat from the South.
Conducting NEO in South Korea is not only a complex operation, the effects of the decision to conduct it are such that the ROK economy will be significantly weakened as confidence in the security of the ROK is undermined. This will in turn bring great stress on the South Korean political system. Traditionally, the military, which is responsible for NEO execution, will request an early decision so that noncombatants can be moved out of harm’s way and so that dual apportioned military capabilities will be ready to support combat operations when the war commences. The Chief of Mission, who has the responsibility and authority to order the evacuation, will be reluctant to do so too early because if he or she miscalculates it will have severe economic and political consequences for the alliance. However, based on what occurred in Afghanistan Kim may believe that when faced with an increased threat from the North the U.S. may be more likely to conduct a premature evacuation with the attendant consequences. Kim may be willing to present the alliance with the appearance of the road to war to achieve the objectives of undermining the legitimacy of the ROK and damaging the alliance. Once the U.S. makes the decision to conduct NEO and the ROK economy collapses, Kim could deescalate the situation and watch as the ROK blames the U.S. for its potentially severely damaged economy.
Experts may be critical of presenting this scenario, but it is necessary for three reasons. The first is to prevent a failure of imagination which is the cause of significant intelligence failures. The second is to inoculate the Korean and American people from this possible strategy. It is imperative that if Kim does execute such actions that the press, political leaders, and population understand what Kim may be doing and support the decisions of national leaders. The third and most important reason for presenting this is to heed Sun Tzu’s important advice: What is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy’s strategy. By understanding and exposing the potential strategy the alliance can effectively undermine Kim’s efforts and protect the alliance.
David Maxwell, now a 1945 Contributing Editor, is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 20 years in Asia. He is the editor of Small Wars Journal and a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
14. High flying North Korean general promoted to senior party role
High flying? Why did the headline editor come up with that one? And a "rising star" is a threat to Kim Jong-un. Only the leaders of the Kim Family regime can be the "lodestar" (like this from the NY Times)
But based on the reporting in the Daily NK today perhaps the "great crisis" is a major COVID outbreak among the military.
High flying North Korean general promoted to senior party role
North Korea has promoted a general long seen as a rising star in the country’s powerful military and a crucial player in its missile programme, to one of the country’s most powerful decision-making bodies, according to state media.
Pak Jong Chon will take up a position in the presidium of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea and will also serve as secretary of the party’s Central Committee, the KCNA news agency reported on Tuesday.
In recent years, Pak has been promoted to a full four-star Army general, led the military as chief of the general staff of the army, and made prominent appearances alongside leader Kim Jong Un, including on a famous horse ride up North Korea’s sacred Mt Paektu.
Analysts have attributed his rise in part to his role in developing North Korea’s short-range missile programme, which has surged forward since Kim suspended long-range ballistic missile tests in 2018 amid talks with the United States.
In July, Kim accused officials of causing a “great crisis” with unspecified coronavirus lapses.
North Korea has not reported any confirmed cases of the virus, nor has it elaborated on what the crises or lapses were.
Pak appears to have replaced Ri Pyong Chol, another powerful general, on the presidium, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.
Analysts say the reshuffle is the most significant personnel change among the core elite in years, and a probable warning from Kim that he will hold them accountable and maintain checks on their power.
Rim Kwang Il, who served as head of North Korea’s military intelligence agency, was named as chief of the general staff of the army, while army general Jang Jong Nam was elected as the Minister of Social Security, KCNA said on Tuesday.
The country’s Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), the isolated state’s rubber-stamp parliament, will meet later this month to discuss economic policy and other issues, according to state media, as the country faces mounting economic crises.
On the agenda for the September 28 meeting are “modification and supplementation” of the national economic plan, as well as laws related to city and country development, education and recycling.
North Korea’s economy suffered its biggest contraction in 23 years in 2020 as it was battered by continued UN sanctions, COVID-19 lockdown measures and bad weather.
15. Kim Jong-un admits failure and calls for 'big leap forward' at rare North Korean party congress
But he does not really take the blame. He has so much else upon which he lays the blame, namely, sanctions, but also COVID and natural disasters and threats from the US and the South.
Kim never accepts full responsibility when in fact the cause of all failure and suffering rests squarely on his shoulders.
Kim Jong-un admits failure and calls for 'big leap forward' at rare North Korean party congress
It appears that even Supreme Leaders are unable to shield themselves from the catastrophic economic fallout of the year-long pandemic.
Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s authoritarian ruler, opened a rare ruling Workers’ Party congress on Tuesday, with a candid admission that his five-year economic plan had failed.
In 2021, the near-deified status of the Kim dynasty does not offer blanket protection from the reality that the capital, Pyongyang, home to the country’s elite and somewhat protected from desperate rural poverty, is reportedly running out of basic necessities including cooking oil, sugar and fresh produce.
“Our five-year economic development plan has fallen greatly short of its goals in almost all sectors,” Kim conceded in his opening speech to the eighth party congress – the first since 2016, when he sought to cement his succession as a young leader and set his own ambitious goals.
Kim used the 2016 congress to promise a “great socialist country” that would enjoy both a powerful nuclear arsenal and a growing economy.
There are significant and ongoing food shortages in Pyongyang. As of January, there is:
– No sugar
– No cooking oil
– No toothpaste
— Chad O'Carroll (@chadocl) January 5, 2021
In announcing the first five-year financial plan since the 1980s, with a focus on improving living standards, Kim took on the political risk of public responsibility for economic development in the impoverished reclusive kingdom.
His gamble was thwarted not only by sanctions over his refusal to fully dismantle his nuclear and missiles programmes, but when the North was forced to close its borders to trade to protect its ailing public health system from Covid-19, and was hit by summer typhoons that further threatened food supplies.
The attempt to show his human side as a “man of the people” was carefully balanced with a beaming smile as his military unveiled huge new weapons, including a new intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of reaching the United States, and a powerful addition to the North’s arsenal.
Kim addressed the party on Tuesday in a rare speech Credit: REUTERS
Kim’s acknowledgement this week of his regime’s failings is expected to be offset later this week by another mass parade, to emphasise public devotion and the regime’s determination in the face of outside adversity.
The combination of empathy and strength is a strategy that Kim will likely reinforce during what is set to be another brutal economic year, and to deflect from his inability to ease punishing international sanctions despite three groundbreaking meetings with Donald Trump, the US president.
Kim met his 2016 goal of boosting his regime’s nuclear prowess.
Since taking over from his father Kim Jong-il in 2011, he has conducted four of the country’s six underground nuclear tests and flight-tested three intercontinental ballistic missiles, but the achievement has underpinned the country’s current economic devastation.
The congress is only the 8th in the Workers' party history Credit: KCNA/Reuters
Nevertheless, Kim showed familiar defiance in his congress opening speech, boasting that the country had won a "miraculous victory" by bolstering its power and global prestige since 2016, and promising the party would explore a "new path" for making a "big leap forward".
The congress, which plays outs over the next few days, will be the focus of intense international attention as Kim is expected to unveil his new economic strategy and reveal his hand on foreign policy.
Addressing some 4,750 delegates and 2,000 spectators, he is expected to announce leadership changes - potentially involving Kim Yo Jong, his sister - and discuss other organisational and audit issues.
And with just two weeks before Joe Biden, the US President-elect takes office, analysts will pour over every nuance to predict what may define his early relationship with the new US administration.
Whether he chooses military-focussed belligerence or a more conciliatory approach based on exceptional economic woes, it appears unlikely that Kim – even in the most dire of circumstances – will pass up a chance to remind the incoming administration of his strongman reputation and brandish his nuclear success.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
