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Quotes of the Day:
"The US, and the free world, are on the defensive. Our policy as a nation has been reactive; that is, we have waited to act until forced by events to do so, rather than anticipating events and being ready to take action when they arrived."
– Murray Dyer, 1959\
“No one should be ashamed to admit they are wrong, which is but saying, in other words, that they are wiser today than they were yesterday.”
- Alexander Pope
"Give not advice without being asked, and when desired, do it briefly."
- George Washington
1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 8 (Putin's War)
2. Ukraine: CDS Daily brief (08.09.22) CDS comments on key events
3. Milley: Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine ‘have been defeated’
4. Give Ukraine the “right artillery ammo:" DPICM
5. Sharing Secrets Has Been ‘Effective’ Against Russia, But the Tactic Has Limits, CIA Chief Says
6. US military’s footprint is expanding in northern Australia to meet a rising China
7. Analysis | China's complaints about U.S. spying are laughable to many
8. Top Russian commander of invading army captured by Ukraine—report
9. China's economy is in bad shape and could stay that way for a while
10. Marshall Islands: Chinese pair plotted 'mini-state' in Pacific nation
11. Ukraine’s Western Arms Have Inflicted ‘Significant Damage’ On Russian Supply, Communications Lines, Top US Officer Says
12. FDD | The IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report - September 2022
13. In a Surprise Visit to Ukraine, Blinken Offers Aid and Encouragement
14. China and Russia's Lies Are Winning Over the Global South
15. Austin Cites ‘Long Haul' Support for Ukraine, Growth of Defense Industrial Bases
16. Nuclear deterrence lessons from Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
17. AFSOC Commander Is on a ‘Jihad' Against Centralization. Here's Why
18. VA Weighs Ditching Lincoln Quote for Motto That's Inclusive of Women and Minorities
19. General Officer Announcements (New Vice Comander USSOCOM)
20. New Philippine administration considers more base access for US military, ambassador says
21. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says
22. Okinawa Key to Japan's Defense Against China, North Korea, Says Expert
23. Iran Sends Written Warning to Countries Hosting US Army
24. Digital great game: The West’s standoff against China and Russia
25. Shield Critical Infrastructure from Electromagnetic Pulses, DHS Says
26. Facing the hard facts about the 'world class' US Navy - Responsible Statecraft
27. ‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures
1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 8 (Putin's War)
Maps/graphics: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
- Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
- Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify crackdowns and filtration measures to curb Ukrainian partisans and pro-Ukrainian saboteurs.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Eastern Axis.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 8
understandingwar.org
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Mason Clark
September 8, 11:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May. Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces advanced 50km deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) notably did not issue any statement regarding Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Ukrainian successes and the Russian MoD’s silence prompted many Russian milbloggers to criticize and debate Russian failures to retain control over the city of Balakliya, approximately 44km northwest of Izyum. Some milbloggers claimed that Russian forces fully or partially withdrew from Balakliya in good order, while others complained that Ukrainian forces beat Russian forces out of the settlement.[2] Others noted that Rosgvardia units operating in the area did not coordinate their defenses or have sufficient artillery capabilities to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks in the region.[3] Milbloggers warned about an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive northwest of Izyum for days prior to Ukrainian advances, and some milbloggers noted that Russian command failed to prepare for “obvious and predictable” Ukrainian counteroffensives.[4] Others noted that Ukrainian forces have “completely outplayed” the Russian military command in Balakliya, while others encouraged readers to wait to discuss Russian losses and withhold criticism until Russian forces stabilize the frontlines.[5]
The current tone and scale of Russian milblogger criticism echo the response to Russia’s loss of a large amount of armor in a failed Russian river crossing in Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast, in May.[6] ISW assessed at the time that the catastrophic Russian losses suffered due to incompetence shook the confidence of pro-Russian milbloggers, sparking criticism of the Russian war effort. Russian milbloggers and social media users accessed satellite imagery that showed devastating losses of Russian military equipment, which caused many to comment on the incompetence of the Russian military and analyze the scene on a tactical level. The Russian MoD did not comment on the situation, fueling burgeoning doubts about Russia’s prospects in Ukraine.
The Russian MoD repeated its Bilohorivka information mistake by failing to acknowledge the situation around Kharkiv Oblast and establish a desired narrative, leaving milbloggers to fill this gap with criticism of Russian forces. The Russian MoD only claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Balakliya.[7] Some milbloggers complained that the Russian MoD did not seize the information space in a timely manner to prevent the spread of Ukrainian social media on Russian Telegram channels, leading to distrust among Russian audiences.[8] Milbloggers largely supported the Russian MoD’s narratives that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast had completely failed just days prior to Ukrainian breakthroughs in Kharkiv Oblast.[9] Such a shift in milblogger perceptions of Russian progress in Ukraine can be partially attributed to the flaws in the Russian war-time information strategy, namely that:
- The Russian MoD struggles to address unexpected Ukrainian operations because its information strategy relies on portraying the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an easy and faultless operation. This promotes a lack of situational awareness within the Kremlin and the Russian media space.
- The Russian MoD needs a significant amount of time to develop and spread false narratives in the Russian information space. The Kremlin and Russian MoD successfully did so prior to the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, and milbloggers largely followed the Kremlin’s line. The Russian MoD failed to have a narrative ready for Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Milbloggers will share and promote footage and imagery of fighting unfavorable to Russian forces that will dominate coverage in the Russian information space if the Russian MoD does not provide its own media.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
- Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
- Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify crackdowns and filtration measures to curb Ukrainian partisans and pro-Ukrainian saboteurs.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Eastern Axis.
Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)
Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces are making incremental advances in Kherson Oblast and continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), command and control points, and ammunition depots throughout the region.[10] Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Main Operational Department Oleksiy Hromov stated that Ukrainian forces have advanced between two and several dozen kilometers in unspecified areas in the Kherson Oblast direction.[11] Ukraine‘s Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian pontoon bridges over the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers on the night of September 8.[12] Ukrainian military officials also noted that Ukrainian ballistic missiles and aviation struck two Russian ammunition depots, an unspecified command post, and key positions of a Russian platoon.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Ukrainian partisans are cooperating with Ukrainian forces to disrupt Russian logistics in the rear.[14] Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures at a railway station on the southern Kherson-Zaporizhia Oblast border due to locals supplying information to Ukrainian forces about Russian troops entering Kherson Oblast.[15]
Social media provides additional visual evidence corroborating the ongoing successful Ukrainian interdiction campaign and Russian attempts to restore GLOCs to northern Kherson Oblast. Satellite imagery from September 7 suggests that one of the ferries operating near Antonivsky Road Bridge is out of service, likely following recent Ukrainian strikes on the GLOC.[16] However, geolocated footage published on September 7 shows that Russian forces opened a new ferry crossing over the Dnipro River in downtown Kherson City.[17] Residents reported hearing over 10 explosions in the area of the Darivka Bridge, and geolocated footage showed the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian convoy on a pontoon crossing near Nova Kakhovka on September 7.[18] Russian and Ukrainian sources published footage of a destroyed residential building in Nova Kakhovka, and local Ukrainian reports stated that a Russian air defense missile fell onto the building.[19] Residents also reported explosions near a railway junction at Novooleksiivka (just north of the Kherson Oblast-Crimea border) after the arrival of a Russian train from Crimea, which supports Ukrainian military officials’ reports of continued partisan activities in southern Kherson Oblast targeting Russian logistics.[20] Local Telegram channels reported the activation of Russian air-defense systems and explosions in Nova Mayachka and Chaplynka in central and southern Kherson Oblast, respectively.[21]
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported kinetic activity northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and around Snihurivka (approximately 60km east of Mykolaiv City) on September 8. Geolocated footage depicts Ukrainian forces raiding Russian positions in Ternovi Pody, approximately 28km northwest of Kherson City on September 8.[22] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainians broke through the defenses of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division between Ternovi Pody and Blahodatne, about 7km due southwest of Ternovi Pody.[23] The Russian MoD stated that Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Blahodatne and Ternovi Pody, which may further support geolocated footage and milblogger reports about Ukrainian advances in the area.[24] The Russian MoD also claimed that Ukrainian forces abandoned their positions in Zeleny Hai and Novohryhorivka (on the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast administrative border) due to heavy casualties, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell both settlements.[25] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to undertake measures to expand the bridgehead over the Inhulets River and have liberated Schastlyve (approximately 13km southeast of the river).[26] A milblogger noted that Russian forces regained positions in eastern parts of Bilohorivka following an airstrike campaign against Ukrainian forces in the area days prior.[27] A Russian milblogger also stated that Ukrainian forces did not attempt counteroffensive operations in the Snihurivka direction but continued to use helicopters to strike Russian airborne troops’ positions in Blahodatne (approximately 40km east of Mykolaiv City).[28] Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported changes in positions south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[29]
The Russian MoD and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces suffered significant losses during the counteroffensive and did not conduct counterattacks in the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih direction on September 8.[30] Russian milbloggers compared Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts, claiming that Ukrainian forces used mobilized infantry forces to advance in southern Ukraine and large quantitates of artillery in Kharkiv Oblast.[31] Milbloggers also significantly decreased their coverage of the Kherson Oblast counteroffensive in favor of reporting on Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast on September 8.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
- Ukrainian Counteroffensives
- Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort- Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort 1- Kharkiv City
- Russian Supporting Effort 2- Southern Axis
- Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
- Activities in Russian-occupied Areas
Russian Main Effort- Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort- Southern Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Izyum and around Slovyansk on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Dibrivne and Dovhenke, both approximately 25km south of Izyum.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the area of the Sviati Hory National Nature Park (about 20km northeast of Slovyansk) and Bohorodychne (about 12km northwest of Slovyansk).[33] Russian forces also conducted routine artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk line and on areas north and northeast of Slovyansk.[34]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northeast of Siversk on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack on Hryhorivka, about 10km northeast of Siversk.[35] Russian forces continued routine artillery strikes on settlements around Siversk.[36]
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Zaitseve, Mykolaivka Druha, and Mayorsk, all within 20km south of Bakhmut.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in Soledar, about 10km northeast of Bakhmut.[38] Russian sources claimed on September 8 that Russian and DNR forces moved into the residential areas of Soledar, where Ukrainian forces are still defending.[39]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack along the northwestern, western, and northern outskirts of Donetsk City on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attacked Pervomaiske (12km northwest of the outskirts of Donetsk City), Nevelske (12km northwest of Donetsk City), Mariinka (about 22 km west of Donetsk), and Kamyanka (about 18km north of Donetsk City).[40] DNR Militia Head Eduard Basurin claimed on September 8 that Russian and proxy forces are expanding the springboard near Pisky towards Tonenke in an effort to surround Avdiivka.[41] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured positions near a hilly area in Pisky, a formerly heavily fortified Ukrainian area.[42] Russian sources claimed that DNR forces finished clearing the western part of the Donetsk City airport and reached the ring road in the area of Opytne, approximately 5km northwest of Donetsk City.[43]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault in western Donetsk Oblast on September 8. A senior Ukrainian General Staff official reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault on Vremivka, about 75km west of Donetsk City.[44] Russian forces continued routine shelling and airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the area between Donetsk City and the Zaporizhia Oblast border.[45]
Supporting Effort #1- Kharkiv City and Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication – GLOCs – to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Ukrainian forces secured substantial gains in Kharkiv Oblast on September 8 and are advancing on Kupyansk, a key node in Russia’s GLOCs supporting the Izyum axis. Ukrainian forces have likely advanced to positions within 15km of Kupyansk and will shell the town overnight. Russian rear positions in Kharkiv Oblast are now exposed to further Ukrainian advances, and Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk within the next 72 hours. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces recaptured Borshchyvka and Ivanivka along the E40.[46] Ukrainian forces likely captured Shevchenkove or bypassed the settlement and advanced toward Hrushivka, given geolocated footage of Ukrainian forces in Borivske (20 km southwest of Kupyansk) and a Russian report of fighting near Hrushivka.[47] A Russian source reported that Ukrainian forces captured Savintsi, Rakivka, and Dovhalivka, all just north of Zalyman on the R78.[48] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have reached transportation hubs at Vesele and Kunye, 10km east on the R78 from Savinsti, but there is currently no evidence to support this claim.[49] Ukrainian forces continued their drive southeast on the N26 highway towards Kupyansk, advancing at least to Shevchenkove (roughly 35km west of Kupyansk), where geolocated imagery shows Ukrainian forces at the settlement’s entrance and most Russian sources report fighting remains ongoing.[50] The loss of Kupyansk and other rear areas on critical GLOCS will hinder Russian efforts to support offensive and defense operations, but will not completely sever Russian lines of communication to Izyum.
Ukrainian forces’ relatively quick speed of advance, proximity to Kupyansk, and ability to shell the city are prompting panic in Russian rear areas. Geolocated footage shows damage from a likely Ukrainian strike on a Russian military headquarters in occupied Kupyansk.[51] Kharkiv Oblast occupation administration head Vitaly Ganchev announced the evacuation of all women and children from Kupyansk City and Kupyansk Raion as well as Izyum Raion, citing increased Ukrainian artillery and rocket strikes but most likely due to the ongoing ground operations.[52] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that occupation authorities in Chuhuiv Raion, Kharkiv Oblast, are forcibly mobilizing men of conscription age by detaining them and sending them to Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, likely to prevent these men from supporting advancing Ukrainian forces.[53]
Ukrainian forces recaptured Balakliya on September 8. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces calmly operating within the center of Balakliya, raising a Ukrainian flag on the city council building, and conducting clearing operations.[54] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Balakliya, inadvertently confirming that Russian forces no longer control the city.[55] Several Russian milbloggers acknowledged Ukraine’s capture of Balakiya while others denied it.[56] Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had either surrendered or withdrawn from Balakliya, emphasizing the extent of discord within the Russian information space about the progress of Ukrainian military operations north of Izyum.[57]
Ukrainian forces likely made minor territorial gains north of Kharkiv City. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Male Vesele (roughly 20km northeast of Kharkiv City), indicating that Ukrainian forces have retaken the settlement on an unspecified date likely within the past few days.[58] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces retook Dementiivka (north of Kharkiv City on the E105) and Sosnivka (11km from the Kharkiv-Russia border) on September 7.[59]
Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Dementiivka, Prudyanka (north of Kharkiv City on the T2117), and Konstantynivka (13km north of Zolochiv).[60] Russian forces struck an administrative building in Kharkiv City with S-300 rounds and continued routine artillery strikes on the surrounding settlements.[61]
Supporting Effort #2- Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and continued routine shelling along the frontline on September 8.[62] Geolocated footage showed an explosion at the Russian-occupied Vasylivka Bus Terminal near the Russian checkpoint to Ukrainian lines in Zaporizhia Oblast.[63] Russian sources accused the Ukrainian government of conducting two drone attacks on the bus terminal and targeting residents who have returned to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[64] Russian forces have previously undertaken measures to restrict passage via the Vasylivka checkpoint and may be attempting to scare evacuees from leaving occupied territories by striking the checkpoint.[65] ISW cannot independently verify the party responsible for the strike, however. Russian sources also published footage of Russian forces reportedly attempting to shoot down a Ukrainian drone in Berdyansk on September 7.[66] Social media footage showed a plume of smoke in Tokmak (a strategic Russian logistics hub north of Melitopol), but the cause of the smoke is unclear.[67]
Russian occupation officials continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling and conducting drone attacks against Enerhodar. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Internal Affairs Minister Vitaly Kiselyov published footage of damage to the Enerhodar occupation administration building’s roof following a claimed Ukrainian loitering munition strike on the building.[68] Russian sources also claimed to have arrested an individual responsible for spotting targets for Ukrainian drones in Enerhodar.[69] Russian-backed Zaporizhia Oblast Military-Civilian Administration Head Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled Enerhodar, but did not provide any visual evidence supporting his accusation.[70] Rogov also claimed that only the sixth reactor at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is operating, and at an extremely low capacity.[71]
Russian forces continued to fire multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and heavy tube artillery at Nikopol and launched a cruise missile at Kryvyi Rih Raion on September 8.[72] Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian forces launched Kh-22 cruise missiles at Bereznehuvate Hromada (territorial community) and continued shelling along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border.[73] Social media users published footage showing smoke at the Saky Air Base in western Crimea and a cloud of smoke in Yevpatoria.[74]
Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)
Russian military authorities continued forming and deploying volunteer units to Ukraine to compensate for personnel losses in Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that the sixth detachment of the Cossack volunteers deployed to Donbas on September 8, after training in Orenburg Oblast from August 31 to September 2.[75] The video of the deploying detachment only shows 10 volunteers that will rotate in for elements of the “Yermak” Cossack volunteer battalion. ISW previously identified that the “Yermak” battalion operated in the Kharkiv Oblast direction.[76] Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced that four Chechen Rosgvardia special units—the “Sever” Regiment, “Yug” Battalion, “Akhmat-Grozny” OMON special police unit, and a police regiment for the protection of oil and gas facilities—are deploying to Ukraine.[77] Kadyrov announced the formation of the second police regiment for the protection of oil and gas facilities on August 20, claiming that the unit would defend critical infrastructure in Chechnya.[78] The deployment of the Rosgvardia units further supports ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin treats all Russian security forces as combat forces for the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.[79]
Russian authorities are continuing to struggle to recruit military personnel within occupied territories. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces are signing up mobilized personnel within the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps for contract service without their consent to serve on the frontlines in Kherson Oblast.[80] The GUR does not specify if the mobilized personnel of the 1st Army Corps are signed up for contract service with the Russian MoD or with the DNR Militia. DNR advertisements for contract service within DNR volunteer units previously offered financial awards from both the DNR and Russia, which may imply that some formations may be generating contract soldiers who signed contracts with the Russian military.[81] The GUR added that elements of the 1st Army Corps are unaware of Ukrainian strikes on Russian GLOCs and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast because Russian commanders are not informing lower command echelons of the situation on the ground.[82]
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Ukrainian partisan activity continues to target occupation authorities preparing for annexation referenda. Ukraine’s Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans conducted coordinated improved explosive device (IED) attacks in Melitopol against the homes of two different Russian collaborators assisting with the annexation referendum.[83] Ukrainian partisans also reportedly conducted an IED attack against the “We are Together with Russia” organization headquarters in Melitopol on September 7, likely to further disrupt referendum preparations.[84]
Occupation authorities continue to intensify partisan crackdowns and filtration measures to stymie increasing destabilization. Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts are conducting anti-partisan operations and that Mariupol authorities increased military foot patrols, police presence, and mobile checkpoints in the city.[85] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Internal Affairs Ministry announced that it is conducting unspecified filtration measures in order to prevent Ukrainian special services sabotage and reconnaissance activities aimed at destabilizing the situation in occupied Luhansk Oblast.[86] Zaporizhia Occupation Administration Council Member Vladimir Rogov announced that occupation police in Zaporizhia Oblast are rounding up small arms and calling on residents to voluntarily surrender them, likely to reduce Ukrainians’ ability and willingness to cooperate with partisan networks.[87] Ukrainian Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Khlan warned that occupation authorities may intensify filtration measures in occupied Kherson Oblast and that occupation authorities may use small offenses, such as the unlawful use of a VPN, to justify filtration measures.[88]
Occupation authorities are increasing preparations for annexation referenda, including intensifying coercion measures against civilians. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblast occupation authorities threatened to nationalize the property of civilians who left occupied territories if they do not return by October 1.[89] Ukraine’s Resistance Center reported that occupation authorities in Melitopol began issuing residence permits to Russians who relocate to the city to artificially increase the number of voters in the referendum.[90] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Head Yaroslav Yanushevich stated that occupation authorities opened passport issuance points in Kakhovka and Nova Kakhovka.[91] Yanushevich also stated that occupation authorities will try to bring international observers, including European Union citizens, to southern Ukraine to try to legitimize the annexation referenda internationally
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
[10] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0trYnVLeiNJeA6HoK7Vu... https://lb dot ua/society/2022/09/08/528780_zsu_zvilnili_harkivshchini_ponad_20.html
[11] https://lb dot ua/society/2022/09/08/528780_zsu_zvilnili_harkivshchini_ponad_20.html
[26] https://t.me/rybar/38374; https://vk dot com/wall347260249_662632
[41] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15692911
[44] https://lb dot ua/society/2022/09/08/528780_zsu_zvilnili_harkivshchini_ponad_20.html
[45] https://lb dot ua/society/2022/09/08/528780_zsu_zvilnili_harkivshchini_ponad_20.html; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02AtN3grTtWFNGJXAMVQ...
[52] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15691411
[60] https://lb dot ua/society/2022/09/08/528780_zsu_zvilnili_harkivshchini_ponad_20.html; https://t.me/synegubov/4094; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/p... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HoiExt1ohKwBpTqUiCG... https://t.me/der_rada/2549
[71] https://tass dot com/politics/1504875
[80] https://gur dot gov.ua/content/okupanty-pidtrymuiut-informatsiinu-blokadu-novoprybulykh-ta-prymusovo-perevodiat-mobilizovanykh-z-dnr-na-kontrakty.html
[82] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/okupanty-pidtrymuiut-informatsiinu-blokadu-novoprybulykh-ta-prymusovo-perevodiat-mobilizovanykh-z-dnr-na-kontrakty.html
[83] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/09/08/v-melitopoli-poblyzu-budynkiv-organizatoriv-referendumu-prolunaly-vybuhy/
[84] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dit ua/2022/09/08/u-melitopoli-poblyzu-shtabu-okupantiv-prolunav-vybuh/; https://t.me/vrogov/4767; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15693607; https://t.me/vrogov/4743; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/524; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/525; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/18242
[90] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/09/08/okupanty-pochaly-vydavaty-posvidky-na-prozhyvannya-zvezenym-rosiyanam/
understandingwar.org
2. Ukraine: CDS Daily brief (08.09.22) CDS comments on key events
Excerpt:
Vladimir Putin lies that only 3% of Ukrainian grain under the deal between Ukraine, the UN, Turkey and Russia goes to the developing countries in need, while the rest is heading to the West, was reputed by Ukraine's Foreign Minister. He rejected the false claims, proving that two-thirds are coming to Asia, Africa and the Middle East countries. President Zelensky revealed that, so far, 54 bulkers shipped grain to Asia, 16 to Africa and 32 to Europe, including those that later sailed to countries of Asia and Africa. Among the customers are Egypt, Yemen, Israel, Iran, India, China, South Korea, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Djibouti, Türkiye and EU countries.
CDS Daily brief (08.09.22) CDS comments on key events
Humanitarian aspect:
As of the morning of September 8, 2022, more than 1,125 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General's Office reports. The official number of children who have died and been wounded in the course of the Russian aggression remained unchanged from yesterday at 382 children killed and more than 742 children injured, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.
In Zaporizhzhya Oblast on September 7, the Russians shelled the Pologiv and Vasyliv districts. As a result, 27 objects of civil infrastructure were damaged. In the village of Mala Tokmachka, three civilians were killed and seven wounded. People were receiving humanitarian aid when the shelling began.
In Donetsk Oblast on September 7, 7 civilians were killed by enemy shelling: 3 - in Slovyansk, 2 - in Mariintka, 1 - in Halytsynivka, and 1 - in Vodiane. 2 more were wounded. Mayor of Slovyansk Vadim Lyakh reported that there were no shellings of the city at night. But from under the rubble of a house were recovered the bodies of three civilians - two men and a woman.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russians shelled the Nikopol district four times. No civilian victims were reported. In Nikopol, 11 private houses and farm buildings near them, several solar power plant panels and a local gymnasium were damaged, and an enterprise was damaged in the Marganets community.
The Russians attacked the Kryvyi Rih region with an air-to-surface Kh-59 cruise missile. Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense shot down an enemy missile, the head of Dnipropetrovsk Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, reported.
On September 7, the enemy attacked the Mykolaiv and Bashtan districts of Mykolayiv Oblast. No civilian victims were reported. Residential buildings, agricultural enterprise buildings, and agricultural warehouses were damaged.
Over the past day, the Russians launched five missile strikes on Kharkiv. At night, they hit the Kholodnohirskyi and Saltivskyi districts of the city. The object of critical infrastructure and premises of the production enterprise were damaged. As a result of the shelling of Kharkiv's Industrial district, two people died, and five were injured, the head of Kharkiv Military Administration, Oleh Synehubov, reported.
In the Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy attacked Kharkiv (3 wounded), Izyum (3 wounded), Chuhuyiv (2 wounded), and Bogodukhiv districts.
In Sumy Oblast, at night, the Russians shelled the Yunakiv community with artillery at least 21 times. No civilian victims were reported. Information about the destruction is being clarified.
Occupied territories
The first photos of Vysokopillia in Kherson Oblast, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated on September 4, were published on social network channels. The village was under occupation for almost six months. "Private estates were burned and destroyed, the center of the settlement was completely destroyed. All over the village, there are mutilated cars of civilians, forcibly taken and marked with the letter Z. The Russian military took away people's passports, they forbade people to walk around the village, and if they were allowed, then only with a white cloth," Deputy of the Kherson Regional Council, Ihor Yosypenko, said.
The heating season will not start in the territories of the Luhansk Oblast recently seized by Russians, Luhansk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said. According to him, the so-called administration of the "LPR" reported on preparations for the heating season and stated that 91.5% of apartment buildings were ready. At the same time, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kremenna and Rubizhne are not even included in the calculation. No heating is expected there, according to the Luhansk Regional District Administration. The same situation is with private houses that are heated by gas. "The seized towns of the Lugansk Oblast are in for a catastrophe
- damaged houses, without heating, windows, ceilings and walls, without the promised electricity and gas," Haidai said.
Ukrainian military intelligence has full information about what is happening at the ZNPP, said Andrey Yusov, a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. “We know almost everything about the occupiers and their intentions, even those that have not yet begun to materialize. We clearly see the actions of a nuclear terrorist, which is the Russian Federation.” He noted that it is known about torture, acts of genocide, and shelling of civilian objects, which are carried out from the territory of the nuclear power plant [seized by Russians], and that the occupiers are bringing military equipment to the territory of the plant.
The Russian-installed occupying "authorities" of the Russian-controlled part of the Kharkiv Oblast moved from Kupyansk to Vovchansk. As United Russia [paty] MP Yevgeny Yevtushenko stated, Vovchansk was declared a "temporary regional center of the Kharkiv Oblast." As for Kupyansk, the Vovchansk Russian-installed so-called "Military Administration" reports an evacuation from the city as the Ukrainian Forces approached.
T
he UN will send a mission to Olenivka to investigate the [Russian] terrorist attack on [Ukrainian] prisoners of war. This was stated by the Deputy Secretary General of the Organization for Political Affairs, Rosemary Di Carlo, during a meeting of the UN Security Council.
US Permanent Representative to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the Russian authorities applied filtration and deported from 900 thousand to 1.6 million citizens of Ukraine. She stressed that the deportation is a serious violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention and is a war crime.
Operational situation
It is the 197th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – "operation to protect Donbas"). The enemy continues to concentrate its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk Oblast, maintaining the captured parts of Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
The enemy keeps five BTGs in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions to demonstrate the forward presence and constrain the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The enemy fired mortars at Bachivsk, Ulanove, and Zapsilya and conducted aerial reconnaissance in Tovstodubove and Vilna Sloboda districts (Sumy Oblast). It carried out aerial reconnaissance (using UAVs) along the Novy Ropsk route of Bryansk region (Russian Federation) - Karpovychi, Chernihiv Oblast of Ukraine, presumably with the aim of further shelling of the Ukrainian border.
The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low. Kharkiv direction
• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line - 147 km, number of BTGs of the
RF Armed Forces - 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG - 13.3 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.
The enemy focused its primary efforts on restraining the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Balakliya area. The enemy continued the transfer of available reserves, and the local Russian-installed occupation administrations introduced a long-term curfew for civilians.
Enemy units of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of Russian North Fleet conducted offensive operations in the direction of Uda, Kostyantynivka, but were stopped and forced to retreat.
As a result of the successful actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the enemy had left its positions in the areas of Volokhiv Yar, Mykhailivka, Nova Husarivka, Bayrak, and Semenivka and was trying to gain a foothold along the Borshchivka, Brigadyrivka, Petropillia, Shevchenkove
frontier, and was equipping a second line of defense along the frontier of Voloska Balakliya, Vyshneva, and Morozivka.
To strengthen the grouping in the Kharkiv direction, the enemy moved CTGs from the Izyum district in the direction of Volokhiv Yar, more than 30 units of military equipment (including tanks) and two "Uragan" self-propelled grenade launchers to the Morozivka district, up to two motorized rifle companies (with 15 BMPs), up to two tank companies (with 15 tanks), two self- propelled guns and ten trucks to Shevchenkove.
In order to prevent a breakthrough and advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to the state border, the enemy strengthened the grouping with units of the 206th rifle regiments of the 2nd Army Corps.
Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Balakliya from the Russian invaders. A video is circulating on the network where the Ukrainian flag was raised over the town and placed at the monument to Taras Shevchenko on the central square of Balakliya.
The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the liberation of 20 settlements in the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to break through 50 km deep into the positions of the Russian troops, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hromov said during a briefing. According to him, filtration operations are underway there. He reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 700 square kilometers in the Kharkiv and South Buh directions.
Kramatorsk direction
● Balakleya - Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line - 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces - 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG - 9.6 km;
● 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.
The enemy concentrated its primary efforts on the Siversk direction, shelling the positions of Ukrainian units with barrel and rocket artillery and tank armament in the Dolyna, Krasnopillya, Hrushuvakha, Karnaukhivka, Nova Dmytrivka and Virnopillya areas. It conducted offensive operations by units of the 752nd motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th army corps of the Western Military District in the direction of Dovhenke, Dibrivne, but the attack was repulsed.
The enemy shelled the positions of Ukrainian troops with mortars, barrel and rocket artillery and tank weapons in the Bohorodychne, Pryshyb, Verkhnyokamianske, Tetyanivka, Spirne, Sydorove, Siversk, Hryhorivka, Slovyansk districts. The enemy struck missiles at Siversk (two missiles,
probably S-300 anti-aircraft missile), Kramatorsk (one missile, probably S-300 anti-aircraft missile), and aviation at Ivano-Daryivka (with Su-25).
Donetsk direction
● Siversk - Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line - 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces - 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG - 17 km;
● Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command "Northern Fleet", 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DNR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LNR, PMCs.
The enemy's primary efforts were focused on conducting hostilities in the Bakhmut operational areas. Information is circulating among the enemy 2nd Army Corps officers about a possible transition to a defensive operation, preparing defensive positions along the administrative border with the Donetsk Oblast to prevent a breakthrough of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
There is an acute shortage of 122 mm artillery ammunition and ammunition for TOS (strict control and reporting of the use of ammo has been introduced) in the enemy 2nd Army Corps units, which are conducting combat operations in the Donetsk direction. "Solntsepek" TOS has been deployed on the territory of the Lysychansk Refinery. In addition, there is a shortage of personnel in the units of the 2nd Army Corps, some of which are only 50% staffed and at a low morale.
The enemy attacked with the forces of the 3rd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps in Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Dacha, and Mykolaivka Druga, was stopped and pushed back to the starting line.
Units of the PMC "League" attacked in the direction of Klynove, Vesela Dolyna, Pokrovske, and Bakhmut, and the fighting continued.
The enemy shelled the positions of Ukrainian units with mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, and tank weapons at Krasnohorivka, Avdiyivka, Kamyanka, Vesele, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Maryinka. It carried out an air strike on the Maryinka area (with Su-25). The enemy forces of the 11th separate motorized rifle regiment and the 100th separate rifle battalion of the 1st Army Corps attacked in the direction of Pisky, Pervomaiske, the 2nd separate rifle battalion of territorial defense forces - in the direction of Kruta Balka, Kamyanka, but suffered losses and retreated.
The enemy's 3rd separate SOF battalion of the 1st Army Corps tried to storm Vesele and Opytne; the 100th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps - Staromykhailivka, Pervomaiske; the fighting continues.
Zaporizhzhya direction
● Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat - 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces - 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG - 11.7 km;
● Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.
The enemy did not carry out active offensive operations. It shelled the positions of Ukrainian troops with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Yehorivka, Velyka Novosilka, Novomayorske, Novoandriivka, Dorozhnyanka, Novopil, Vremivka; carried out airstrikes in the areas of Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka ( with three Ka-52s), Prychystivka (with a pair of Su-25s), Chervone (with a pair of Su-25s), and missile strikes in the Trudove region (with four S-300 anti-aircraft missiles).
Kherson direction
● Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line - 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces - 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG - 9.3 km;
● Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.
An enemy echelon with "Uragan"/"Smerch" anti-aircraft missiles and ammunition (15 cars) arrived at the "Kalanchak" railway station.
The efficiency of the enemy's logistic support has been significantly reduced due to the damage to the main transport (bridge) crossings and the systematic destruction of these crossings by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Therefore, the enemy concentrated combat equipment immediately
in front of the crossings. In addition, the enemy restored the pontoon-bridge crossing over the Ingulets River in the Darivka area. The enemy "Tor" air defense system provides air defence of the crossing area.
The enemy strengthened the troops' grouping in the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih direction with the units of the separate "Akhmat" regiment. About 40 BBM "Tiger" and up to 100 personnel arrived in Kherson.
Enemy military transport aircraft (seven IL-76s) transferred up to the battalion of personnel of the separate "Akhmat" regiment and up to 100 UAZ "Patriot" cars and BBM "Tiger" to the area of the "Dzankoy" airfield.
In Sokologhirny, the enemy strengthened the administrative and policing regime, and filtering measures are being carried out to identify persons who inform the Ukrainian Defense Forces. First of all, railway employees and their family members are checked.
The enemy is actively using the railway station to move weapons and ammunition and is probably trying to hide the transfer of reserves.
Kherson-Berislav bridgehead
● Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG –
11.8 km;
● Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC
The enemy shelled Ukrainian troops with mortars, barrel artillery and MLRS in the areas of Prybuzke, Stepova Dolyna, Oleksandrivka, Tavriyske, Myrne, Blahodatne, Lyubomirivka, Shevchenkove, Novohryhorivka, Shyroke, Pervomaiske, Kyselivka, Kvitneve, Partyzanske, Novohredneve, Biloghirka, Velyke Artakove, Olhyne, Novovoskresenske, Myrolyubivka, Lyubymivka and Petrivka. It carried out airstrikes in the areas of Vyskopillya (with a pair of Su- 25s), Ternovi Pody (with a pair of Su-25s), Lozove (with a pair of Su-25s), Kostromka (with Ka-52 and Mi-8), Chervonyi Yar (with Su-34).
The enemy conducted 25 UAVs' sorties to clarify the position of Ukrainian troops and adjust the artillery fire in the areas of Lyubomyrivka, Shchaslyve, Vavylove, Bruskynske, Bilohirka, Pravdyne, Davydiv Brid, Snigurivka, Ternovi Pody, Velyke Artakove, Kostromka, Sukhy Stavok, Blahodatne,
Zeleny Gai, Kyselivka, Myrne, Novopetrivka, Ivanivka, Novovoskresenske, Potemkine, Sofiivka, and Zolota Balka.
In Rozdolne, the Russian troops concentrated a reserve of the tank battalion.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.
Along the southern coast of Crimea, there are two enemy missile carriers, a frigate of project 11356P and a small missile ship of project 21631, as well as more than ten other enemy warships and vessels of the auxiliary fleet of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla, which provide reconnaissance and blockade of shipping in the Azov-Black Sea water basin. Up to 16 enemy Kalibr missiles are ready for a salvo.
Russian patrol ships and boats are on combat duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports.
Most large amphibious ships are in the ports of Novorossiysk and Sevastopol for replenishment and scheduled maintenance. There are no signs of preparation for an amphibious assault on the southern coast of Ukraine.
One enemy project 636.3 submarine is on high alert in Sevastopol; three submarines are in Novorossiysk.
Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 12 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.
The humanitarian corridor from the ports of Odesa continues to work. In total, 101 ships left Ukrainian ports during the initiative, and 2.4 million tons of agricultural products were delivered. Ukraine exported 44% of its agricultural products to Asian countries. According to the Ministry of Infrastructure, 2.37 million tons of agricultural products have been exported since the first ship with Ukrainian food left until today. In particular, 54 ships with 1.04 million tons of grain were sent to Asian countries, 32 ships with 0.85 million tons to Europe, and 16 ships with 0.47 million tons of agricultural products to Africa.
Operational losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 07.09
Personnel - almost 51,250 people (+640);
Tanks – 2,112 (+15);
Armored combat vehicles – 4,557 (+37);
Artillery systems – 1,226 (+32);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 305 (+5); Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 159 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,344 (+24); Aircraft - 239 (+2);
Helicopters – 210 (+2);
UAV operational and tactical level - 884 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles - 214 (0);
Boats / ships - 15 (0).
Ukraine, general news
Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv, showing the US continuing support for Ukraine. "We know this is a pivotal moment, more than six months into Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, as your counteroffensive is now underway and proving effective," said the top US diplomat. Ukrainian President expressed gratitude "for the signal, for this enormous support that the US is providing daily". Antony Blinken announced that he authorized the twentieth aid since September 2021 of US arms and equipment worth $675 million. He also mentioned that the Biden Administration notified Congress of the intent to make a further $2.2 billion available in long-term investments under Foreign Military Financing. Ukraine would get $1 billion, while the rest of the money would be divided among Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
"Now we're seeing the demonstrable success of our common efforts on the battlefield," said the US Defence Secretary, opening the 5th Ramstein meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany. Lloyd Austin announced that the new $675 million aid package includes howitzers, munitions, Humvee vehicles, armoured ambulances and anti-tank systems. At the same time, the meeting's goal is far-fetching and is to support Ukraine "for the long haul." It's aimed at "pushing all of our defence industrial basis to provide Ukraine with the tools it will need," Secretary Austin said. Ukraine is being provided with M982 Excalibur, a GPS- and inertial-guided munition with a range of up 20 40 km, Bloomberg reports. Pentagon will send some additional 900 shells to already supplied around 370 ones.
Norway donates approximately 160 Hellfire missiles to Ukraine, an undisclosed number of launching pads and guidance units, and night-vision equipment. The missiles have now been shipped from Norway, and Norwegian instructors have already trained Ukrainian operators.
Germany's Federal Minister of Defence announced further support for Ukraine in the form of a "winter package" that includes power generators, tents and other winter equipment.
After the EU failed to address the tourist visa ban for Russian citizens, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed to employ a common regional approach with the "political will and firm intention to introduce temporary national measures for Russian citizens holding EU visas."
There're two reasons for such a move: national security and moral rightness. "We believe that this is becoming a serious threat to our public security and to the overall shared Schengen area… There are people coming with the aim of undermining the security of our countries," the Estonian Prime Minister justified the decision. She went on to reject the idea that travel to the EU is somehow a human right, not a privilege, especially in the background of Russia's atrocities in Ukraine. However, the Baltic countries and Poland have no intentions to introduce an outright entry ban, leaving possibilities to provide visas for dissidents, humanitarian cases, family members and holders of residence permits, among others. Russians have been denied entry into Georgia on a mass scale; several dozen people are denied entry daily, Free Russia Foundation in South Caucasus reports.
The Latvian Saeima (the Parliament) voted the law recognizing the fully independent and autocephalous status of the Latvian Orthodox Church. "The withdrawal of any link with the patriarch of Moscow is an essential issue for our Orthodox, all Latvian society, and national security," stated Egils Levits. It is yet another blow to the Russian orthodox church that for decades has enabled the Kremlin's interference in the domestic affairs of other states.
Vladimir Putin lies that only 3% of Ukrainian grain under the deal between Ukraine, the UN, Turkey and Russia goes to the developing countries in need, while the rest is heading to the West, was reputed by Ukraine's Foreign Minister. He rejected the false claims, proving that two-thirds are coming to Asia, Africa and the Middle East countries. President Zelensky revealed that, so far, 54 bulkers shipped grain to Asia, 16 to Africa and 32 to Europe, including those that later sailed to countries of Asia and Africa. Among the customers are Egypt, Yemen, Israel, Iran, India, China, South Korea, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Djibouti, Türkiye and EU countries.
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3. Milley: Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine ‘have been defeated’
A doctrine lesson from LTG Hertling:
Mark Hertling
@MarkHertling
19h
GEN Milley is using the Army's doctrinal definition of "Defeat."
Defeat is “a method through which friendly forces accomplish their missions against enemy opposition...[using] combinations of four defeat mechanisms:
destroy, dislocate, disintegrate, and isolate.”
From ADP 3-90.
Milley: Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine ‘have been defeated’
The Hill · by Ellen Mitchell · September 8, 2022
Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Thursday said Russia’s strategic objectives in its attack on Ukraine have “been defeated.”
“The war is not over, but so far the Russian strategic objectives have been defeated,” Milley said at a news conference alongside Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
“Despite being outgunned and outmanned, the Ukrainians have demonstrated superior tactical proficiency and they’ve demonstrated a superior will to fight, fight for their own country, fight for their freedom,” Milley added.
Russia in April began an offensive in the eastern-most part of Ukraine known as the Donbas after failing to take the capital of Kyiv early in the invasion.
Milley, who allowed that Moscow has achieved “minor tactical success in various parts of eastern Ukraine,” attributed the falters in the Kremlin’s offensive to unsuccessful operational objectives and “a very successful defense conducted by Ukraine.”
“They have not achieved all of the Donbas, and they have only crossed the Dnipro River in the south in the vicinity of Kherson,” he said of Russian forces.
The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, launched its own offensive to push back Kremlin troops around Sept. 1.
California drought raises red flags for agriculture Wall Street hits back at GOP state officials over ESG
Milley said it’s too early to fully assess that offensive near Kherson, but he noted Ukraine “is effectively using their fires to shape the ground maneuver” and has had “steady” and “deliberate” progress in the fight.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, who was in Kyiv for an unannounced visit on Thursday, said as he departed the country that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was “proving effective.”
“Again, it’s very early, but we’re seeing clear and real progress on the ground, particularly in the area around Kherson, but also some interesting developments in the Donbass, in the east, but again, early days,” he said, as reported by CNN.
The Hill · by Ellen Mitchell · September 8, 2022
4. Give Ukraine the “right artillery ammo:" DPICM
Give Ukraine the “right artillery ammo:" DPICM | Small Wars Journal
Small Wars Journal
Give Ukraine the “right artillery ammo:" DPICM
By Dan Rice
This war in Ukraine is the most critical conflict in generations. It is the first major combat action on the European continent in 70 years. And the most important decision facing the west right now is not being debated in public.
Unfortunately, we are providing Ukraine with the “wrong ammo” to fight an artillery duel against a numerically superior Russian invading army. The war is a 1,200-mile artillery battle and the Ukrainians are far outgunned, by 7:1 to 10:1 in artillery pieces. General Zaluzhnyi has asked the United States for Dual Purposed Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM) ammunition, and the US has quietly said “no”, insisting on providing a less effective alternative: high explosive (HE). We have millions of rounds of the “right ammo” available and need to get approval to send it to them immediately. President Zelensky famously replied, “I don’t need a ride, I need more ammo”. We’ve sent him the “wrong ammo” for this battlefield. Let’s rectify that and start sending him the “right ammo”.
The West’s overall support of Ukraine has been extraordinary. 73% of all Americans support arming and defending Ukraine. If so, the majority of Americans should contact their members of Congress and demand we provide Ukraine with the DPICM artillery rounds General Zaluzhnyi has desperately requested.
Quite simply, DPICM is an artillery shell that separates prior to the target and drops 88 submunitions on the target in a tight area. DPICM ammunition has been in use by the U.S. military since the 1970s. An area weapon, or in other words a “cluster munition” DPICM ammunition is typically 5-15 times more effective per round than the older high explosive (acronym is HE) artillery rounds the U.S. is currently providing to Ukraine. While the current DPICM is being phased out in advance of the new C-DAEM round, the DPICM is still very much a significant component of U.S. warfighting capability with most of our artillery inventory being DPICM. Both rounds utilize area coverage cluster munition, with the C-DAEM having an improved dud-rate of under 1%, compared to DPICM’s 3%.
This dud-rate performance improvement goal drove the DOD policy decision in 2008 to phase out DPICM. In November 2017, DOD issued a new policy that essentially reversed the 2008 policy. Under the new policy, combatant commanders can use cluster munitions that do not meet the 1% or less unexploded submunitions standard in extreme situations to meet immediate warfighting demands. In addition, the new policy does not establish a deadline to replace cluster munitions exceeding the 1% rate and states that DOD “will retain cluster munitions currently in active inventories until the capabilities they provide are replaced with enhanced and more reliable munitions.” With the eventual fielding of the C-DAEM round, the U.S. military will both achieve its 1% rate standard while keeping up to standard with warfighting demands through current use of DPICM.
Russia has no such standard with area weapons and cluster munitions. Russia used air dropped cluster munitions against the Afghan population in the 1980s. The Russians disguised bomblets as leaves, or even toys, to cripple or kill children. This is not the first time Russians have terrorized innocent civilians. The Russians used at least six types of air dropped cluster bombs against civilian populations of Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Donbas, Crimea, and now in their illegal war against Ukraine in 2022. They attack military and civilian targets alike and leave behind unexploded ordnance (UXOs) from these cluster munitions that later can wound or kill or leave an area uninhabitable. They are usually cluster “bombs”, dropped from aircraft, that explode in the air, dispersing many submunitions on the target below. They are using this against civilian targets in Ukraine.
But Russia also fires tons and tons or regular artillery, missiles and rockets that are not cluster munitions. Some of these have terribly high failure rates, resulting in “duds” or unexploded ordnance (called UXOs). Our battlefields and cities across Ukraine have UXOs from the 50,000-100,000 artillery shells fired per day against Ukrainian civilian and military targets. UXOs will be a major problem for Ukraine, whether Ukraine wins, or Russia wins.
This pervasive unexploded ordnance and cluster munition usage of Russia indiscriminately against civilians was the driving factor in the formation of the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), which just met for their 10th annual session last week. The goal of CCM is to create international agreement to limit use to only munitions with a UXO dud rate of less the 1%, the same goal as U.S. policy. While many countries immediately signed on to the provisions of the CCM, many have not, including the U.S.
Nearly every free democratic country that faces a totalitarian aggressor did not sign the convention. The countries that are most at risk from a large-scale Russian conventional invasion did not sign it: Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine. The country that is most likely to face a large-scale conventional Chinese invasion did not sign it: Taiwan. The country that is most likely to face a large-scale conventional invasion from North Korea did not sign it: South Korea. Why? They all face an existential threat from a conventional much larger aggressor army than themselves.
The US did not sign the agreement as we were unwilling to compromise our war fighting effort in order to meet other nations’ dictated timeline of implementing our own policy. The reason the US retained the option to use cluster munitions is that for half a century the U.S. and NATO have prepared to fight the Russians in Europe what we believed was an imminent Russian invasion. The west always knew Russia would have a numerical superiority in artillery tubes and tanks. Mass artillery has been a Russian doctrine since World War II. The U.S. and NATO always knew that there was no way to match Russian artillery one for one. Or even the number of Russian tanks, aircraft or divisions of soldiers.
The USSR and later Russia was always expected to be a much larger military. The US and NATO, relied on superior technology, soldiers, and training. And more lethal conventional munitions.
We have better tanks, attack helicopters and artillery. The M1A1 Abrams main battle tank was designed to take on far greater numbers of Russian tanks, usually T-72s or T-80s. The M1A1 is faster, more survivable and fires all systems accurately at full speed. The Apache AH-64 attack helicopter could take on far greater numbers of aircraft and tanks and was armed with the most advanced anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons systems.
Our NATO artillery was expected to be far outnumbered by Russian artillery in a 10:1 ratio. NATO had standardized on the same size artillery shell, 155mm, and all NATO members expected to fire much better ammo than the Russians fire. We always planned to use Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM). While not matching the Russians on a one for one artillery tube vs artillery tube ratio, the DPICM round was a force multiplier, making one artillery tube much more powerful. Each artillery round contained 88 submunitions. The round would explode in the air prior to hitting the target and scatter the 88 submunitions that each submunition explodes on impact below. It is not indiscriminate; it is highly accurate and fired only at known military targets. Instead of firing one high explosive shell (HE) which hits one target, the DPICM round would release 88 submunitions and hit 88 targets across a 150-meter radius. One DPICM round is much more lethal than one high explosive (HE) round. The use of DPICM has always been the strategy to counter Russian numerical superiority.
This is a 2-minute video that explains DPICM
When Ukrainian units are being attacked by Russians now, if they have Ukrainian artillery, they are unfortunately firing 155mm high explosive (HE) rounds. I learned this when I was in combat on the front lines in the Donbas and was shocked. This high explosive round, while sounding ominous, is far inferior to firing DPICM. DPICM is between 5-15 times more lethal than high explosive (HE) depending on terrain, weather and other variables. That means fewer Russian soldiers killed per round, and more Ukrainian soldiers (and civilians) die in this war. If NATO would supply DPICM 155mm rounds, it would level the playing field and save Ukrainian lives, both military and civilian. In most wars, artillery is the #1 killer on the battlefield, as it is in the Ukraine war. To increase Ukrainian artillery lethality instantly to be 5-15 times more powerful, will be a game changer. And it is simply changing the shells that are being fired, no training necessary. And millions of artillery rounds are already in Europe and can be on the battlefield within days. For most of the war, Ukraine has been on the defensive, which usually has fewer casualties, than the force on the offensive. If Ukraine is to take back the Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine needs to go on the offensive. Without overwhelming force, Ukraine will take significant casualties in the offensive against overwhelming enemy artillery fires. DPICM will significantly reduce Ukrainian casualties in the offensive action that is needed to win.
This is an article that explains the difference between DPICM and HE.
There is a serious debate currently about how and why deterrence failed after 70 years. One reason is likely Putin knew he had artillery superiority and the west would not use DPICM because the U.S. complies with an agreement it never signed. And if we do not use DPICM here in Ukraine, the countries that face Russia, China and North Korea are therefore more at risk because the precedent is being set- we will not use DPICM to protect Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Taiwan or South Korea. The enemy is always watching.
Both the United States and European Union (E.U.) have recently claimed they are running low on ammunition. These two recent articles highlight the dilemma:
The U.S. is running low on ammo after sending so much to Ukraine
The E.U. is running low on weapons because it’s given so many to Ukraine
Because DPICM is the most lethal artillery, and because it was the primary planned defense ammo for the defense of Europe to defeat a potential Russian invasion, it was also the most massed produced. We have millions of rounds of DPICM. We are running out of ammo, but we aren’t using the most lethal and most mass-produced ammo.
General Zaluzhnyi has requested DPICM. I know this because after learning from Ukraine they were only receiving High Explosive; I advised the General staff to requests DPICM. General Zaluzhnyi approved and he spoke with the U.S. The Ukrainians will fire it on their own Ukrainian land, only against Russian military targets. Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi go into this fully knowing if they fire DPICM that it will be more deadly than HE against the Russian invaders. But it will have the downside to leaving UXO’s throughout anywhere they fight the Russians. They understand the risks and still request DPICM, because they know that the existential risk of not using them is much greater.
The warfighting effectiveness of DPICM ammunition is clear. The official written U.S. DoD policy for utilizing DPICM in combat is clear. General Zaluzhnyi’s reasons for pleading for DPICM ammunition is clear. What is unclear is why this request was denied. Not being in the room where the decision was made one can only speculate, but the comments against area munitions from numerous Hollywood celebrities at last week’s CCM conference has surely influenced the political lens through which Ukraine’s request for DPICM ammunition is being viewed. If that is in fact the case, then we are sacrificing the Ukraine war effort based on the opinion of a few actors, who would probably reverse their positions if they understood their support of the Cluster Munitions Convention emboldens Russia and hurts Ukraine’s chances of being free.
Political leaders in Washington, D.C. and Brussels need to choose “the harder right over the easier wrong” and get Ukraine the lethal aid it needs to win. Congress should immediately hold hearings and have our top generals give their testimony and expert opinions on what DPICM could contribute to the outcome of this war, and to remove politics from this conventional military decision. Ukraine does not have time for politics. The nexus of rising energy prices in Europe as Putin strangleholds the continent, declining ammo and weapons stocks in the EU and US, a stagnant artillery war of attrition, are all colliding in the coming months. And the battle lines will likely not move much in the coming months without DPICM. Leadership is needed to keep the coalition together and to get Ukraine the ammo it needs to win.
Give Ukraine DPICM now.
Dan Rice is a West Point graduate and combat veteran and President of Thayer Leadership at West Point. He is an unpaid Special Advisor to General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Commander in Chief of Ukraine Armed Forces and registered as a Foreign Agent with the Department of Justice under FARA. He is an American soldier for life and believes opening this public debate is in the best interests of the Secretary of Defense’s mission to defend and free Ukraine.
Small Wars Journal
5. Sharing Secrets Has Been ‘Effective’ Against Russia, But the Tactic Has Limits, CIA Chief Says
You do not always have to expose secrets (although it is the "secret" that gets everyone's attention). We need to recognize our adversaries' strategy, understand it, EXPOSE it, and attack it with a superior political warfare strategy)
Sharing Secrets Has Been ‘Effective’ Against Russia, But the Tactic Has Limits, CIA Chief Says
It’s just one of the new areas for a spy agency grappling with tech-driven changes.
defenseone.com · by Lauren C. Williams
Declassifying intelligence to defuse Russian narratives has “played a very effective role” in the months-long war in Ukraine, according to the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, particularly when it’s part of a broader strategy. But its usefulness has limits when it comes to cyber threat intelligence.
“The decisions to declassify intelligence are always very complicated ones, but I think when President [Joe] Biden has decided very carefully and very selectively to make public some of our secrets, it's played a very effective role over the course of the last six months, and I think it can continue to—again, if we make it the exception, not the rule,” William Burns, the director of the CIA, said during a keynote at the Billington Cybersecurity Summit on Thursday.
Burns said recklessly handling of information was the “surest way” to lose access to good intelligence, but with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has helped counter false narratives out of the Kremlin.
“I think it's been a very important means of denying Vladimir Putin something that I've watched him employ too often in the past, which is creating false narratives, trying to blame the Ukrainians, to create false provocations in the run up to the war,” Burns said.
“And I think what we were able to do working with our allies and partners is to expose the fact that Putin's war is a naked, unprovoked aggression as well and I think that's played—that very selective, very careful declassification—played a perfect role.”
But declassifying intelligence might not work for every scenario, particularly when it comes to declassifying cyber threat intelligence, stressing that declassification needs to be done “carefully.”
“I think we're gonna have to be careful looking at other instances, whether it's in terms of cyber threats or other kinds of challenges that the United States and our allies will face in the future,” Burns said.
Adapting to the digital world
The CIA is also coming to terms with rapid changes in technology and how they might force the agency to change its approach to human intelligence gathering.
“Certainly, the revolution in technology in the era of ubiquitous technical surveillance and smart cities—it's transformed the way in which our case officers conduct our tradecraft and do work business overseas,” Burns said.
He said adversaries can now use artificial intelligence and machine learning to mine years of past data and “discern patterns in our activities that make it a lot more complicated to conduct our tradecraft and our profession and human intelligence in particular, in the way that we were accustomed to doing it for years and years before.”
In an effort to adapt, the agency has created one mission center to counter China and another, the Transnational and Technology Mission Center, that aims to better understand “patterns and innovation” in commercial technologies.
“We have a contribution to make in competition with China and competition with other rivals, and trying to help policymakers understand what's the best way to shore up vulnerabilities in our supply chain. How do we compete successfully in critical spheres, as all of you know very well, from semiconductors to quantum computing to synthetic biology as well. So we're putting a lot of energy and resources into those efforts,” Burns said.
He said about one-third of CIA officers work on tech-related issues, from cybersecurity to digital innovation.
In April, the CIA hired its first chief technology officer: Nand Mulchandani, who previously led the Pentagon’s AI center. Mulchandani is charged with producing the agency’s 10-year technology strategy and fostering links between the agency, academia, and the commercial and public sectors.
Burns said it is important for the CIA to have a technology strategy that “draws on all the talent and all the resources we have,” particularly in semiconductor supply chains.
Mulchandani’s “first charge is to work, again, with all of our colleagues across CIA to produce for the first time a serious agency-wide technology strategy looking out over the long term, so I think there are a lot of opportunities here,” Burns said.
defenseone.com · by Lauren C. Williams
6. US military’s footprint is expanding in northern Australia to meet a rising China
US military’s footprint is expanding in northern Australia to meet a rising China
Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · September 8, 2022
A Royal Australian Air Force plane passes a worksite on RAAF Tindal, Australia, Sept. 1, 2022. The space is being expanded to accommodate aircraft as large as U.S. Air Force B-52 bombers. (Seth Robson/Stars and Stripes)
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DARWIN, Australia — Red dust rises in Australia’s Northern Territory as tractors churn the earth to build facilities for U.S. forces deployed to bolster a longtime ally threatened by China’s rapid military buildup.
Major construction, funded by the U.S. and Australian governments, is underway in the northern port of Darwin, at Larrakeyah Defence Precinct and at Royal Australian Air Force Bases Darwin and Tindal for facilities that will be used by the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.
The facilities will support U.S. and Australian forces training to defend chains of small islands that would likely be an arena for any future conflict with China, according to former Australian assistant defense secretary Ross Babbage.
The allies are learning to conduct dispersed operations and deploy anti-ship missiles to island chains in the Western Pacific “to make it extremely difficult and dangerous for Chinese operations in a crisis,” including a conflict over Taiwan, he said by phone Wednesday.
Australians are alarmed at Chinese efforts to gain influence among their South Pacific neighbors following a security pact, signed in April, with the Solomon Islands that many fear could lead to the establishment of a Chinese military base.
East of Darwin’s central business district, 400 workers are building 11 massive tanks that will be able to store 80 million gallons of fuel, according to Crowley, a Florida-based fuel provider working under contract with the Defense Logistics Agency, according to the company’s website.
Major construction, funded by the U.S. and Australian governments, is underway in the northern port of Darwin, at Larrakeyah Defence Precinct and at Royal Australian Air Force Bases Darwin and Tindal for facilities that will be used by the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. (Noga Ami-rav/Stars and Stripes)
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“Construction on all 11 tanks has commenced,” the Northern Territory’s government said in a statement Sept. 1. “The facility will be the largest of its kind in the Territory.”
The $181 million project, to be completed by September 2023, will provide U.S. defense operations in the region with military-grade fuel, the statement said.
Larrakeyah projects
On the west side of Darwin, at Larrakeyah Defence Precinct, work is underway on a $317 million upgrade of facilities and a new 820-foot-long wharf and fuel farm, according to the Australian Defence Department’s website.
The new facilities, due to be complete in 2023, will support surface warships, submarines, mine hunters and hydrographic ships, the website states.
The base has been home to 100 U.S. Marines, deployed there the past six months as part of a 2,200-strong rotational force that has been training in the Northern Territory during the southern hemisphere’s cooler months since 2012. The bulk of the force is at Robertson Barracks, an Australian army post about 12 miles to the east.
The Marines at Larrakeyah make up the rotational force’s command element and live on base in modern, multistory apartments, each with its own bathroom and balcony.
The base displays old military equipment, including guns used to defend Darwin from Japanese air raids in World War II. The installation, which dates to 1932, was damaged in the bombing.
Facilities used by visiting U.S. forces are being improved in and around Darwin, a port city in Australia’s Northern Territory. (Seth Robson/Stars and Stripes)
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Larrakeyah Defence Precinct is home to Australia’s North-West Mobile Force, a unit made up of indigenous troops who conduct long-range reconnaissance and surveillance missions. (Seth Robson/Stars and Stripes)
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Troops eat beneath a portrait of Queen Elizabeth II in a dining facility that also service U.S. Marines at Larrakeyah Defence Precinct in Darwin, Australia. (Seth Robson/Stars and Stripes)
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Major construction is underway in the northern port of Darwin, at Larrakeyah Defence Precinct and at Royal Australian Air Force Bases Darwin and Tindal for facilities that will be used by the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. (Seth Robson/Stars and Stripes)
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Larrakeyah Defence Precinct in Darwin, Australia, displays old military equipment, including guns used to defend Darwin from Japanese air raids in World War II. (Seth Robson/Stars and Stripes)
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The Marines work out in a well-equipped fitness center and on a grassy playing field nearby. They eat at the Australian navy dining facility beneath a large portrait of Queen Elizabeth II. They can enjoy an after-work beverage at a bar upstairs decorated with Vietnam War-era souvenirs.
The Marines are planning a rugby game against the Stray Cats, a local civilian team, on Sept. 11. The fixture commemorates a match between members of the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit deployed from Camp Pendleton, Calif., and local players that happened on the same date in 2001, shortly before the attack on the Twin Towers.
The Marines share Larrakeyah with 600 Australian sailors assigned to naval base HMAS Coonawarra. Larrakeyah is home to 11 Armidale-class patrol boats. Sailors there can haul the 171-foot-long vessels out of the water and into a massive shed for maintenance.
“They patrol an area from Christmas Island to Ashmore Reef (in the Indian Ocean) and the Timor Strait,” a spokesman for the Australian Defence Department in the Northern Territory, Todd Fitzgerald, said during a base tour. “They’re looking for anything that shouldn’t be there like illegal fishing, human traffickers and drug shipments.”
Pier improvements
The Australians are adding larger, 262-foot-long offshore patrol vessels to their fleet with the first one to be launched later this year, he said.
The new wharf at Larrakeyah will allow Australia’s 755-foot-long landing helicopter dock ships the HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide, to make port calls, Fitzgerald said.
Similar-sized U.S. Navy amphibious assault ships will also be able to dock at the new pier, he said, meaning visiting U.S. Marines can disembark there, rather than at Darwin’s civilian wharf where commercial berths must be booked in advance.
The base is on the opposite side of town to Fort Hill Wharf, where the U.S. Navy’s dock landing ship USS Ashland made a port call in May. The wharf and other port facilities in Darwin are leased by Landbridge, the Australian subsidiary of a privately owned Chinese company that is reported to have links to China’s army.
Larrakeyah is also home to Australia’s North-West Mobile Force, a unit made up of indigenous troops who conduct long-range reconnaissance and surveillance missions, Fitzgerald said.
The force keeps tabs on almost three quarters of a million square miles in northern Australia by visiting remote communities and airstrips to collect information, he said.
“When the Marines go into an area these guys will give them a low down on what’s in there,” he said.
Members of the unit can talk to people in remote communities in their own language and introduce Marines who might work near them, Fitzgerald said.
“If you have someone from North Force who says they are with them (the Marines) it can avoid a lot of potential problems,” he said.
Air base upgrades
Australian air bases in the Northern Territory frequently used by visiting U.S. aircraft are also being improved.
At RAAF Darwin, for example, $88.65 million worth of projects to build fuel tanks, expand the airfield and erect maintenance facilities are due for completion next year.
U.S. Air Force F-15 Eagles from the Okinawa-based 67th Fighter Squadron flew out of RAAF Darwin during the Pitch Black drills, a three-week exercise involving 2,500 personnel, more than 100 aircraft and 17 nations that ended Thursday.
A $496 million project at RAAF Tindal, a 200-miles drive south of Darwin, will upgrade the airfield, increase aviation fuel storage, re-invest in ageing base engineering services and provide additional accommodation for airmen, according to the Australian Defence Department’s website.
A concurrent $294 million project at the base will upgrade power, water and sewerage, the website states.
Heavy equipment was at work on Sept. 1 building new ramp space capable of accommodating American B-52 bombers at Tindal. U.S. stealth fighters including Marine Corps F-36B Lightning IIs deployed from Iwakuni, Japan, and Air Force F-22 Raptors from Hawaii were taking off and landing near the worksite that day.
The Australian government will likely announce more initiatives in the northern Australia before the year is over, Babbage said.
“There is a lot of space and scope for doing innovative things and big things,” he said.
Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · September 8, 2022
7. Analysis | China's complaints about U.S. spying are laughable to many
“I'm shocked, shocked, to find that gambling is going on in here."
This is the perfect scene (in 20 seconds) that illustrates Chinese hypocrisy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjbPi00k_ME
Analysis | China's complaints about U.S. spying are laughable to many
The Washington Post · by Tim Starks · September 9, 2022
Welcome to The Cybersecurity 202! Because we don't say it often enough, please send tips to tim.starks@washpost.com.
Below: A major cryptocurrency firm is funding a lawsuit over U.S. sanctions on a crypto anonymization service allegedly used by North Korean hackers, and Portugal responds to the apparent theft of classified NATO documents. First:
“No, duh.” China keeps alleging the U.S. is hacking it, confusing cyber analysts
This week China accused the National Security Agency of hacking into the computers of a Beijing-funded university the United States says conducts research for the military.
It was the latest entry in a series of recent complaints from China about U.S. cyber-snooping, following allegations dating back to February.
The gripes, though, have baffled cybersecurity experts of many stripes.
- They’re uncertain what China is hoping to accomplish, all the more so because they scoff at what they describe as the shoddy and often dated nature of the Chinese findings.
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Additionally, alleged targets like this week’s Northwestern Polytechnical University are what most nations would consider “fair game” for government-to-government espionage, prompting reactions of, essentially, “No duh.”
In some cases, China has drawn on publicly available media reports for their “revelations.” State media has bolstered the government message and echoed its oddly non-revelatory nature. One outlet this week, for instance, reported that it had “learned from a source” that the NSA’s Rob Joyce had once led the agency’s hacking division, Tailored Access Operations (TAO) — a fact commonly mentioned in his online biographies.
The Chinese claims were “highly amusing,” tweeted European security researcher Lukasz Olejnik:
Chinese accusation of US/NSA cyberattacks on China's aviation university. Unusually, a strong protest issued by China's Foreign Ministry. Chinese media write about NSA extensively, and doxx/point at Rob Joyce, specifically. Highly amusing! https://t.co/PG1XzZoIcW pic.twitter.com/wRMEAokhVj
— Lukasz Olejnik (@lukOlejnik) September 5, 2022
The confusing nature of some elements of the accusations from China's National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center (CVERC) also makes it difficult to verify them, which sometimes only identify older hacking tools and therefore raise questions about how effective China’s cybersecurity apparatus is.
“Additional technical reporting from CVERC [is] needed to enable independent validation of analytic findings by industry peers,” Silas Cutler, senior director for cyberthreat research and analysis at the Institute for Security and Technology, told me via email.
SentinelOne’s Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade further broke down the technical side of things in a Twitter thread:
I've been rather glib in addressing this CN report on 'TAO' malware at Northwestern Polytechnical University in China. So what do we really learn from this?
— J. A. Guerrero-Saade (@juanandres_gs) September 5, 2022
Just why
There are a few possible explanations for why Chinese entities — sometimes the government, sometimes companies, sometimes both — are doing this of late, Adam Meyers, senior vice president of threat intelligence at cybersecurity company CrowdStrike told me:
- Chinese cybersecurity firms might be trying to bring attention to their threat intelligence products.
- Or: “They’re working in concern with the Chinese government in order to demonstrate that this works both ways, that China can claim the U.S. is attacking them and they can use that to push back on any claims of U.S. businesses and entities saying the Chinese are stealing their intellectual property.”
- Or: They’re trying to send a message to the U.S. government, which has repeatedly accused China of cyber malfeasance. “We’re going to start putting pressure on you because you’ve been putting pressure on us,” Meyers said.
It’s possible that all three theories are simultaneously true, Meyers said.
Another possible explanation is that China wants to diminish the United States in the eyes of regional players like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, Josh Lospinoso, who once worked for the NSA’s TAO and now is CEO of cybersecurity firm Shift5, told me.
While the reports from China of late are more formal, government officials there have often verbally responded to past allegations of Chinese hacking by pointing to U.S. cyberspace operations, Lospinoso pointed out.
Propaganda
If there’s one consensus, it’s that China is making its recent spree of allegations to influence opinions.
“I would offer that Beijing seems to be making a recent habit of repackaging old news — suggesting its utility is primarily propaganda,” Gavin Wilde, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me via email.
“China’s counternarrative to its pervasive cyber activity is not only useful on the domestic front, but coincides with increasing cohesion among Western governments and tech companies in cyberdefense and attribution amid Moscow’s war on Ukraine,” he said. “Even so, having to go to such lengths to explain the logic behind Chinese propaganda is indicative of how slipshod it often is.”
The keys
Coinbase finances lawsuit over Tornado Cash sanctions
The firm is sponsoring a lawsuit by six plaintiffs against the Treasury Department in federal court in Texas. The plaintiffs say the U.S. government’s blacklisting of Tornado Cash — a cryptocurrency mixer that authorities said facilitated money laundering by North Korean hackers — hurt them financially and that they all used the service for legitimate purposes, Tory Newmyer reports. Two of the plaintiffs are employees at Coinbase, which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States.
“The suit argues that Treasury overstepped its legal authority by sanctioning software, rather than a person or an entity,” Tory writes. “And it claims the department infringed on the plaintiffs’ First Amendment rights by barring them from using a tool that enabled them to exercise their free speech.”
Investigators recover $30 million in cryptocurrency stolen by North Korea
The recovered funds appear to be a fraction of the cryptocurrency that the Lazarus Group stole from the Axie Infinity video game in March, but it still represents a success by authorities in clawing back stolen money from the notorious North Korean hackers, the Wall Street Journal’s Dustin Volz and Caitlin Ostroff report. Cryptocurrency intelligence firm Chainalysis, which worked with Axie Infinity publisher Sky Mavis, said it had discovered where the hackers tried to convert the stolen funds into cash and that cryptocurrency and law enforcement partners were able to freeze the money.
“It’s a big deal to have any amount of money clawed back from the Lazarus Group,” Chainalysis senior director of investigations Erin Plante told the Journal. “That didn’t used to happen.”
Portuguese authorities investigate sale of secret NATO documents on dark web
U.S. officials alerted their Portuguese colleagues about hundreds of documents marked “secret” and “classified” for sale on the dark web, Diário de Notícias’s Valentina Marcelino reports. The documents NATO apparently sent to Portugal, a member of the alliance.
Portuguese officials investigating the breach eventually found the computers from which the documents were stolen, Marcelino reports.
The offices of Portugal’s prime minister and military told Diário de Notícias that authorities investigate all apparent breaches. A spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Lisbon told the outlet that they don’t comment on intelligence issues.
National security watch
FBI, DOJ defend ‘offensive’ actions against Chinese, Russian operations (The Record)
Cyber insecurity
Four vulnerabilities discovered in popular infusion pumps, WiFi batteries (The Record)
Industry report
Trial of former Uber executive has security officials worried about liability for hacks (The Wall Street Journal)
Securing the ballot
An ex-professor spreads election myths across the U.S., one town at a time (Annie Gowen)
Daybook
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Top officials from across the federal government speak at the Billington CyberSecurity Summit today.
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Christel Schaldemose, a member of the European Parliament who is rapporteur for the Digital Services Act, discusses the DSA at an event hosted by the German Marshall Fund and Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs on Monday at noon.
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Twitter whistleblower Peiter “Mudge” Zatko testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday at 10 a.m.
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Current and former executives at social media companies testify before the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday at 10 a.m.
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A Senate Judiciary Committee panel holds a hearing on protecting Americans’ personal information from hostile foreign actors on Wednesday at 3:30 p.m.
Secure log off
Nailed it.. pic.twitter.com/hv4RpSfSIh
— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) September 8, 2022
Thanks for reading. See you next week.
The Washington Post · by Tim Starks · September 9, 2022
8. Top Russian commander of invading army captured by Ukraine—report
Accurate?
Top Russian commander of invading army captured by Ukraine—report
Newsweek · by Brendan Cole · September 9, 2022
Ukrainian media outlets and social media users have speculated that a top Russian commander has been captured as Kyiv's counteroffensive against Moscow's forces gathers pace.
Images and video shared on Twitter and Telegram purportedly show Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi among a group of Russian troops handcuffed on their knees with one social media user saying they were near Balakliya, in the Kharkiv region
Many noted the similarity of one of the captured men to other images of Sychevoi.
Nexta TV tweeted a screen grab of the alleged general next to a previous image of Sychevoi in his regalia.
"It seems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured not the usual 'lieutenant colonel', but the commander of the 'West' grouping, Colonel General Andrey Sychevoi," it said.
A screen grab of shared on social media Telegram channels show Russian Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi (left) and an image purportedly of him having been captured by Ukrainian forces. Via Telegram
The Lviv Journal tweeted a clip it said was of the Russian troops following their capture, with the message, "Time will tell if it's Gen. Andrei Sychevoi that appears in the video.
"What I find intriguing is that 6 Ukrainian soldiers surround him & look at him as if he is the big fish, & the way he looks away from the camera [he surrendered after all]", it added.
Military analyst Rob Lee tweeted "Russian Telegram channels are already [pointing] the finger at Lieutenant General Sychevoi who is the 'West' group commander responsible for this area."
On the uniform of the man believed to be Sychevoi are the two stars worn by Russian lieutenant generals. Two stars are also on display on the shoulders of his ceremonial uniform he is wearing in images shared of him on social media.
"Striking similarity, isn't it?" wrote Twitter user Nordic Arctic Fox Operative who also tweeted a combined image of the Russian captured with Sychevoi in his garb.
The capture has not been confirmed and Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian armed forces and the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
If verified, it would be a considerable coup for Ukraine although other social media users have disputed if it really is Sychevoi.
Open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander was among several who noted a difference in the hairline and a facial mole between the commander and the POW.
There also appears to be doubt over Sychevoi's current role. When he was sanctioned by the European Union on February 28, he was commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District.
But in June, the Conflict Intelligence Team [CIT] said that according to its sources, Sychevoi, who was an ex-commander of the 8th Army, had taken over the post in the Western Military District.
Analyst Lee said in a follow up tweet that he appeared to have been replaced "a month ago", citing a Russian Telegram channel.
Rights group Charter 97 has dubbed Sychevoi, 53, who it said had held his current rank since 2019, "a war criminal of the highest rank" who "gives orders in the war against Ukraine."
Update 9/9/22 6:00 a.m. ET: This article was updated to remove some superfluous words.
Update 9/9/22 5:40 a.m. ET: This article was updated to add additional comment and context.
Newsweek · by Brendan Cole · September 9, 2022
9. China's economy is in bad shape and could stay that way for a while
Will this threaten Xi's future?
China's economy is in bad shape and could stay that way for a while | CNN Business
CNN · by Laura He · September 9, 2022
Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.
Hong Kong CNN Business —
China is beset by severe economic problems. Growth has stalled, youth unemployment is at a record high, the housing market is collapsing, and companies are struggling with recurring supply chain headaches.
The world’s second biggest economy is grappling with the impact of severe drought and its vast real estate sector is suffering the consequences of running up too much debt. But the situation is being made much worse by Bejing’s adherence to a rigid zero-Covid policy, and there’s no sign that’s going to change this year.
Within the past two weeks, eight megacities have gone into full or partial lockdowns. Together these vital centers of manufacturing and transport are home to 127 million people.
Nationwide, at least 74 cities had been closed off since late August, affecting more than 313 million residents, according to CNN calculations based on government statistics. Goldman Sachs last week estimated that cities impacted by lockdowns account for 35% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP).
CHENGDU, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 03: Aerial view of an empty street on September 3, 2022 in Chengdu, Sichuan Province of China. Residents in Chengdu are required to stay home in an effort to curb further expansion of an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in the city. (Photo by Wu Ke/VCG via Getty Images)
Visual China Group/Getty Images
Chinese cities rush to lockdown in show of loyalty to Xi's 'zero-Covid' strategy
The latest restrictions demonstrate China’s uncompromising attitude to stamping out the virus with the strictest control measures, despite the damage.
“Beijing appears willing to absorb the economic and social costs that stem from its zero-Covid policy because the alternative — widespread infections along with corresponding hospitalizations and deaths — represents an even greater threat to the government’s legitimacy,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a DC-based think tank.
For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, maintaining that legitimacy is more vital than ever as he seeks to be selected for an unprecedented third term when the Communist Party meets for its most important congress in a decade next month.
“Major policy shifts before the party congress appear unlikely, although we could see a softening in certain policies in early 2023 after Xi Jinping’s political future has been assured,” Singleton said.
This photo taken on September 1, 2022 shows police officers checking information on a road amid restrictions due to an outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus in Chengdu, in China's southwestern Sichuan province.
CNS/AFP/Getty Images
Chinese company profits are collapsing like its 2020 again
“Even then, the Party is running short on both time and available policy levers to address many of the most pressing systemic threats to China’s economy,” he added.
The economy will continue to worsen in the next few months, said Raymond Yeung, chief Greater China economist for ANZ Research. Local governments will be “more inclined to prioritizing zero-Covid and snuffing out the virus outbreaks” as the party congress approaches, he added.
Tightening of Covid restrictions will hit consumption and investment during China’s “Golden September, Silver October,” traditionally the peak season for home sales.
People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 25, 2022 in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
72% of economists expect a US recession by the middle of next year
In the meantime, a sharp slowdown in the global economy doesn’t bode well for China’s growth either, Yeung said, as weakening demand from the US and European markets will weigh on China’s exports.
He now expects Chinese GDP to grow by just 3% this year, missing Beijing’s official target of 5.5% by a wide margin. Other analysts are even more bearish. Nomura cut its forecast to 2.7% this week.
No exit until early 2023?
More than two years into the pandemic, Beijing is sticking to its extreme approach to the virus with forced quarantines, mass mandatory testing, and snap lockdowns.
The policy was deemed successful in the early stage of the pandemic. China managed to keep the virus at bay in 2020 and 2021 and stave off the large number of deaths many other countries suffered, while building a quick recovery following a record contraction in GDP. At a ceremony in 2020, Xi proclaimed that China’s success in containing the virus was proof of the Communist Party’s “superiority” over Western democracy.
But the premature declaration of victory has come back to haunt him, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant makes the zero-Covid policy less effective.
However, giving up on zero-Covid doesn’t seem like an option for Xi, who this year has repeatedly put greater emphasis on defeating the virus than rescuing the economy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping claps hands during the Second Plenary Session of the Fifth Session of the 13th National People's Congress on March 08, 2022, at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China.
Andrea Verdelli/Getty Images
China's top leaders have gone silent on the country's economic goals
In a trip to Wuhan in June, he said China must maintain its zero-Covid policy “even though it might hurt the economy.” At a leadership meeting in July, he reaffirmed that approach and urged officials to look at the relationship between virus prevention and economic growth “from a political point of view.”
“Beijing has sought to cast its zero-Covid policies as evidence of the Party’s strength, and therefore, by extension, Xi Jinping’s leadership,” Singleton said.
Any change in approach may not come until next year, and even then it’s most likely to be very gradual, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist for Pinpoint Asset Management.
“It will be a long process,” he said, adding that Hong Kong — where quarantine and testing rules for visitors have recently been relaxed — could be “an important leading indicator for what will happen in the mainland.”
Another dismal quarter
While Beijing seems unwavering on its zero-Covid strategy, the government has rolled out a flurry of stimulus measures to boost the flagging economy, including a one trillion yuan ($146 billion) package unveiled last month to improve infrastructure and ease power shortages.
The government is trying to achieve “the best possible outcome” for economic growth and jobs while sticking to zero-Covid, but it’s “very hard to balance the twin goals,” said Yeung from ANZ.
Recent data suggest the Chinese economy could be headed for another dismal performance in the third quarter. GDP expanded by only 0.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, slowing sharply from growth of 4.8% in the first quarter.
Official and private sector surveys released last week showed China’s manufacturing industry contracting in August for the first time in three months, while growth in services slowed.
Office workers carrying umbrellas to shield from the sun walk in Hangzhou, China, on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022.
Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images
China's growth forecasts slashed as heatwave hits industrial heartlands
“The picture is not pretty, as China continues to battle the broadest wave of Covid infections thus far,” Nomura analysts said in a research report on Tuesday.
Jobs and property issues
China’s job market has deteriorated in the past few months. Most recent data showed that the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 year-olds hit an all-time high of 19.9% in July, the fourth consecutive month it had broken records.
That means China now has about 21 million jobless youth in cities and towns. Rural unemployment isn’t included in official figures.
“The most worrying issue is jobs,” said ANZ’s Yeung, adding that youth unemployment could climb to 20% or higher.
Other economists say more job losses are likely this year as social distancing measures hurt the catering and retail industries, which in turn piles pressure on manufacturers.
Apartment buildings at the Magnolia Mansion residential project, developed by Sunac China Holdings Ltd., in Shanghai, China, on Friday, Jan. 14, 2022.
Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images
China slashes mortgage rate to tackle deepening property crisis
The deepening property market downturn is another major drag. The sector, which accounts for as much as 30% of China’s GDP, has been crippled by a government campaign since 2020 to rein in reckless borrowing and curb speculative trading. Property prices have been falling, as have sales of new homes.
While there could be a relaxation of zero-Covid rules in 2023, housing policy may not look very different after the party congress.
“We are unlikely to see the economy repeat the previous high growth of 5.5% or 6% for the next two years,” said Yeung.
CNN’s Beijing bureau contributed to this report.
CNN · by Laura He · September 9, 2022
10. Marshall Islands: Chinese pair plotted 'mini-state' in Pacific nation
China exposed?
Marshall Islands: Chinese pair plotted 'mini-state' in Pacific nation
BBC · by Menu
By Frances Mao
BBC News
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A Chinese couple plotted to set up a mini-state on the Marshall Islands in the Pacific, bribing MPs and officials along the way, US prosecutors say.
The man and woman tried to persuade lawmakers to set up a "Semi-Autonomous Region" (SAR) on a remote atoll.
Such a zone would have expanded foreign access to the Pacific nation, which was administered by the US until 1979.
The Marshall Islands government is yet to fully address the accusations, despite calls from opposition parties.
But US authorities say the defendants - Cary Yan and Gina Zhou - undermined the island nation's sovereignty.
Their efforts saw bills supporting the SAR's creation debated in the Marshall Islands' parliament in 2018 and 2020, US prosecutors say.
Prosecutors allege several Marshall Island lawmakers, unidentified in the charge sheet, voted for the bills after receiving bribes ranging from US$7,000 to $22,000 (£6,100 to £19,000).
The pair were detained in Thailand in 2020 and extradited to the US last week.
"Yan and Zhou's bribes blatantly flouted the sovereignty of the Republic of the Marshall Islands and its legislature," said US Attorney Damian Williams for the Southern District of New York.
The Marshall Islands, a chain of islands located between Hawaii and Australia, gained independence in 1979 after being under US administration for four decades.
It remains a key strategic base for Washington in the Pacific, where the US has some security alliances in place but China is seeking to expand its influence.
How the alleged plot unfolded
Prosecutors say the two defendants operated a New York-based NGO through which they paid and liaised with Marshall Islands officials.
Starting in 2016, they contacted island representatives in a bid to create a SAR on the Rongelap atoll - an area abandoned following US hydrogen bomb testing in the 1950s.
US authorities say Mr Yan and Ms Zhao aimed to "significantly change the laws on the island", such as by cutting taxes and relaxing immigration restrictions, to attract foreign investment.
They allege the pair wined and dined at least six Marshall Island officials and lawmakers, paying for flights and hotels in New York as well as in Hong Kong, where the officials attended a conference promoting the SAR.
One official who accepted money then appointed Mr Yan as a special adviser to the Marshall Islands. The pair also became naturalised Marshall Island citizens.
In 2018, lawmakers who had taken bribes introduced a bill supporting the proposed SAR into parliament, US prosecutors say.
"The defendants offered and provided a series of bribes and other incentives to obtain the support of legislators for the bill," the US Justice Department indictment sheet reads.
However, the bill failed to pass in parliament after firm opposition from the island's then president, Hilda Heine. Ms Heine around that time had accused opponents of working on China's behalf and attempting to secure the atoll to turn it into a "country within a country".
But Ms Heine lost the 2019 general election. A new parliament in 2020 then passed a resolution which endorsed the concept of the SAR - paving the way for a new bill to establish it.
However later that year Mr Yan and Ms Zhao were detained in Thailand. They have been charged in the US with foreign corruption, money laundering and bribery offences.
On Monday, former president Ms Heine added her voice to those demanding the Marshall Islands government address the issue.
"What is the Nitijela [parliament] and the government going to do about this big black eye for Marshall Islands?" she asked, according to local media.
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11. Ukraine’s Western Arms Have Inflicted ‘Significant Damage’ On Russian Supply, Communications Lines, Top US Officer Says
Ukraine’s Western Arms Have Inflicted ‘Significant Damage’ On Russian Supply, Communications Lines, Top US Officer Says
defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker
HIMARS vehicle as seen driving on the road in Eastern Ukraine on July 1, 2022. Washington Post via Getty Images / Anastasia Vlasova
HIMARS alone has been used to hit more than 400 targets, Gen. Milley said at a meeting of Kyiv’s international supporters.
By Patrick Tucker
Technology Editor
September 8, 2022 04:53 PM ET
RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany—The Ukrainian military has performed well with the weapons that the United States and other nations have provided for them, the top U.S. military officer said Thursday.
Using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that the United States and other countries have provided, Ukrainian forces have done “significant damage” to “Russian supply lines and ammunition supply points and command and control nodes as they as they continue to shape the battlefield to be able to maneuver to retake some of their sovereign territory,” Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday during a meeting here of the Defense Contact Group of nations supporting Ukraine.
Such successes make it easier for the U.S. and other countries that support Ukraine to make the case for continuing that support, even as observers predict the fight against Russian invaders to stretch at least into the next year.
Milley said the United States had sent the beleaguered country 16 HIMARS launchers, thousands of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, or GMLRS, rockets, and almost half a million rounds of 155mm ammunition, thousands of anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft weapons, small arms and other pieces of equipment.
“We are seeing real and measurable gains from Ukraine in the use of these systems,” he said, offering that Ukrainian forces have used HIMARS to hit more than 400 targets.
In the past few days, Ukraine has expanded its counteroffensive to retake territory around both Kharkiv and Kherson. Does Milley think this effort is spreading the Ukrainian forces too thin? “No, I don’t,” he said, describing the moves as “a very deliberate offensive operation that is calibrated to set conditions and then seize their objectives.”
12. FDD | The IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report - September 2022
Read the 16 page report here: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/The_IAEA%E2%80%99s_Iran_NPT_Safeguards_Report_-_Sept_8_2022_Final.pdf
FDD | The IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report - September 2022
fdd.org · September 8, 2022
September 8, 2022 | Institute for Science and International Security
David Albright
Institute for Science and International Security
Sarah Burkhard
Institute for Science and International Security
Andrea Stricker
Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow
Excerpt
Background
- Iran has consistently violated its obligations under its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA), a key part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and fully account for its past and present nuclear activities.
- For nearly four years, the IAEA has been investigating the presence of man-made uranium particles at three Iranian sites and was seeking information about nuclear material and activities at a fourth site.
- In March 2022, the IAEA found Iran in breach of its safeguards obligations for failing to declare its use of nuclear material at one of these sites, Lavisan-Shian. In June 2022, the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a censure resolution against Iran for non-cooperation with the IAEA with only China and Russia voting against.
- This analysis summarizes and assesses information in the IAEA’s latest NPT safeguards report on Iran, issued on September 7, 2022. It also provides background information on the former Iranian nuclear weapons sites under IAEA investigation.
Findings
- Since the last IAEA report in June, there has been no progress or cooperation from Iran to resolve the outstanding safeguards issues.
- The IAEA requests “technically credible explanations” regarding the presence and origin of uranium particles detected at the three locations, as well as the “current location(s) of the nuclear material and/or of the contaminated equipment.” Thus, it is unlikely that the four locations publicly discussed by the IAEA are the only remaining sites in Iran with traces of undeclared uranium.
- The IAEA concludes, as of September 2022, it is “not in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.” This means the IAEA cannot verify Iran’s compliance with its CSA and NPT and is implying Iran is violating both agreements.
Recommendations
- It is critical for the IAEA to continue its investigation of Iran’s violations of nuclear safeguards under the NPT. Absent an immediate, marked shift in Iran’s actions, the IAEA Board of Governors should pass a resolution condemning Iran’s non-cooperation and then refer the issue to the UN Security Council.
- The United States and Europe should refuse Iran’s demands to end the ongoing IAEA investigation as a condition for a revived nuclear deal under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) framework. The West should instead pressure Iran to cooperate with the IAEA by strengthening sanctions, including enacting the so-called snapback of UN sanctions, allowed in case of Iranian non-compliance with the JCPOA.
Latest NPT Safeguards Report
For nearly four years, the IAEA has been investigating the presence of man-made uranium particles at three Iranian sites and was seeking information about nuclear material and activities at a fourth site. The four sites are Turquz Abad, Varamin, Marivan, and Lavisan-Shian, previously referred to by the agency as Locations 1-4. In March 2022, the IAEA found Iran in breach of its safeguards obligations for failing to declare its use of nuclear material at Lavisan-Shian. Out of the four sites of concern, three were discussed in Iran’s Nuclear Archive.
Andrea Stricker is deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and an FDD research fellow. Follow her on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
Read in Institute for Science and International Security
fdd.org · September 8, 2022
13. In a Surprise Visit to Ukraine, Blinken Offers Aid and Encouragement
In a Surprise Visit to Ukraine, Blinken Offers Aid and Encouragement
nytimes.com · September 8, 2022
At a “pivotal moment” as a counteroffensive makes gains, the secretary of state pledged $2.8 billion more in military aid to Ukraine and allies.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting the devastated city of Irpin during his surprise trip to Ukraine Thursday.Credit...Pool photo by Genya Savilov
RZESZOW, POLAND — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken paid a surprise visit to Kyiv on Thursday, pledging $2.8 billion in military aid for Ukraine and other countries at risk of Russian invasion as the United States backs a Ukrainian effort to gain fresh military momentum.
With Ukraine waging a counteroffensive to reclaim territory lost to invading Russian forces, America will send an additional $675 million in military support for the country, Mr. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in separate announcements.
Mr. Blinken also said he was asking Congress to approve just over $2 billion more for longer-term investments in Ukraine’s military and that of 18 other mostly small and vulnerable European countries. The combined aid makes for a total of $14.7 billion in security assistance from the Biden administration since Russia’s invasion in February, Mr. Blinken said.
Mr. Blinken’s trip to Kyiv, made in secret via overnight train from eastern Poland, was his second since the Russian invasion began, and was meant to show unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine as Russia appears to be digging in for an extended military and economic conflict.
“We know this is a pivotal moment, more than six months into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, as your counteroffensive is now underway and proving effective,” Mr. Blinken told Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in a meeting at the heavily fortified presidential administration building in Kyiv.
His trip came as Mr. Austin met with allied defense ministers at a monthly gathering of the Ukraine Contact Group, which aims to coordinate the flow of military aid to Ukraine. The arrival of Western equipment, particularly longer-range HIMARS missile systems, has enabled Ukrainian forces to attack Russian military infrastructure behind the front lines and supported counteroffensives in the south and, apparently, in the northeast.
“Ukrainian forces have begun their counteroffensive in the south of their country, and they are integrating the capabilities that we all have provided to help themselves to fight and reclaim their sovereign territory,” Mr. Austin said at the start of the meeting, at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia delivered a defiant address on Wednesday that whitewashed the war’s huge toll on his country, and his army’s faltering performance, telling an economic conference in Russia’s far East, “We have not lost anything, and will not lose anything.”
The latest American aid package is intended to help Ukraine “prevail” in its fight over Russia, a senior U.S. official said on the eve of Mr. Blinken’s arrival in Kyiv. But U.S. officials refuse to define exactly what a Ukrainian victory might look like, and some experts argue that Ukraine is unlikely to gain a decisive military advantage.
At the same time, top Biden officials — including Mr. Blinken, in his meeting with Mr. Zelensky — also underscored the importance of Ukraine having a strong hand in any peace negotiations with Russia.
Any political settlement to the war, now in its seventh month, remains a distant prospect, however. A second U.S. official on Wednesday called negotiations virtually impossible in the current environment, with Ukraine’s public firmly opposed to making any concessions to Moscow and with Russia showing no interest in serious negotiations.
On Thursday, the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, told an audience that Mr. Putin believes he can simply wear down his military and political foes over time.
“Putin’s bet right now is that he is going to be tougher than the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans,” Mr. Burns said, speaking at the Billington CyberSecurity conference in Washington.
“I believe, and my colleagues at C.I.A. believe, that Putin is as wrong about that bet as he was profoundly wrong in his assumptions going back to last February about Ukrainian will to resist,” Mr. Burns said. He added that American intelligence would continue to play an important role in supporting Kyiv “and ensuring that Putin fails in Ukraine.”
In Germany, Mr. Austin said that the new package of weapons included air-launched HARM missiles designed to seek and destroy Russian air defense radar; guided multiple-launch rocket systems known as GMLRS; howitzers and other artillery; armored ambulances; and small arms.
The State Department said the $2 billion package, which will be drawn from pools of money already authorized by Congress, but whose specific allocation is still subject to House and Senate approval, would be divided roughly in half between Ukraine and the group of 18 other nations. They are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The money would be used to “build the current and future capabilities” of Ukraine’s armed forces and those of the other countries, including by strengthening their cyber and hybrid warfare capabilities, specifically to counter Russian aggression,” the State Department said.
The money would also help integrate non-NATO members with the alliances’s military forces.
Mr. Blinken made several stops in Kyiv, including at the American embassy, which reopened in May, and at a hospital treating children injured in Russian attacks. Mr. Blinken met there with a six-year-old girl from Kherson who was identified by her given name, Maryna, who lost a leg when a rocket struck her house.
At the hospital Mr. Blinken was also introduced to Patron, a Jack Russell terrier that Ukrainian forces have credited with helping unearth hundreds of Russian land mines. The secretary of state declared the dog “world famous.”
After meetings with Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, and with Mr. Zelensky, Mr. Blinken toured a devastated residential area in Irpin, outside of Kyiv. As he escorted Mr. Blinken past demolished buildings and one bullet-riddled car, the city’s deputy mayor noted that Ukraine would need help rebuilding its cities.
The fighting in northeastern Ukraine, near the city of Kharkiv, suggested that Ukraine’s military might be trying to exploit the movement of Russian forces to the south to defend positions against the growing Ukrainian counteroffensive there.
Western analysts said this week that Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv area seemed to have pushed Russian troops back from around the town of Balakliya, and captured the nearby village of Verbivka.
“It’s very early, but we’re seeing clear and real progress on the ground, particularly in the area around Kherson, but also some interesting developments in the Donbas in the east,” Mr. Blinken told reporters before his return to Poland.
After seizing the last major cities of Luhansk Province in eastern Ukraine in early July, Russian forces have struggled to make gains in the east and have spent weeks reinforcing positions in the south — as Ukraine telegraphed its plans to start a counteroffensive there. During those weeks, Ukraine used long-range weapons sent by the West to disrupt Russian supply lines in the south and struck far behind enemy lines with the help of special forces and partisans.
The commander of Ukraine’s armed forces on Wednesday acknowledged publicly for the first time that Ukraine was behind last month’s strikes on a Russian air base in Crimea, the peninsula Russia seized in 2014.
The commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and a colleague wrote in an article published by Ukrinform, a Ukrainian news agency, that as many as 10 Russian warplanes were destroyed in the attack on the base, on Crimea’s western Black Sea coast.
nytimes.com · September 8, 2022
14. China and Russia's Lies Are Winning Over the Global South
"Politics is war by other means" to our adversaries.. Can we conduct effective political warfare to compete in the gray zone where strategic competition takes place?
China and Russia's Lies Are Winning Over the Global South
Have you heard that the US created Covid, AIDS is a bioweapon and Ukrainian leaders are Nazis? Unfortunately, Moscow and Beijing are having success spreading such disinformation in the global south.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-08/china-and-russia-s-lies-are-winning-over-the-global-south?srnd=opinion-politics-and-policy&sref=hhjZtX76
ByHal Brands
September 8, 2022 at 6:30 AM EDT
What US officials once called the Third World was a crucial swing bloc during the Cold War, and it is again in the new cold wars underway. Russia and China see the developing regions as areas where the US position is weak and they can expand their influence. The two autocratic powers are increasingly doing so through aggressive disinformation campaigns that the US has struggled to counter.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the developing world is the last refuge of the diplomatic scoundrel. Russian relations with the advanced democracies are in free fall thanks to a series of outrages culminating with the invasion of Ukraine. This makes the Middle East, Africa and Latin America more important to Moscow.
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Putin has long seen opportunity there. He has fished in troubled waters, using arms sales, mercenaries and even direct military intervention to make Russia a player in conflicts in Syria and Libya. Moscow has created distractions for the US by cultivating military and intelligence ties with autocratic states in the Western Hemisphere such as Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Amid the war in Ukraine, Putin is seeking to rally developing countries against the punishments the US and its allies have imposed on Russia, in part by blaming those sanctions — rather than Moscow’s aggression — for worldwide economic turmoil.
China is looking for advantage in similar places. Developing countries from Pakistan to Argentina have been the primary recipients of the loans and infrastructure deals of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. African, Latin American and Middle Eastern nations figure prominently in Chinese strategy as providers of natural resources, recipients of Chinese-made technology, and a potentially sympathetic voting bloc in the United Nations.
Amid growing tensions with America and other leading democracies, China is aiming to outflank its rivals by building a sphere of economic and diplomatic influence in the developing world.
Disinformation is one of the critical tools. During the 1980s, the Soviet Union sought to blacken America’s image by spreading the lie that the Pentagon had cooked up the AIDS virus. The modern-day echoes are powerful: In 2020-21, a Chinese disinformation campaign claimed that Covid was a US bioweapon gone awry.
That myth spread through Chinese-owned or -financed media outlets from South Africa to South America, sometimes drawing on information provided by the Chinese state or media entities with close ties to it, and often amplified by Chinese government officials. Russian state-funded media outlets such as RT amplified such allegations, while firing off falsehoods about everything from racial violence in the US to the supposed Nazi leanings of the Ukrainian government.
Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns frequently work in parallel, as when Chinese outlets mimicked Russian claims about nonexistent US bioweapons facilities in Ukraine. Or perhaps the coordination is more direct: Since 2013, the two governments have signed agreements to strengthen their joint propaganda work.
Disinformation aimed at the developing world is more pervasive than many Americans realize. A report by the Atlantic Council revealed how China uses a network of seemingly independent websites, newspapers and TV channels to launder fake news into the information ecosystem, where it can be promoted as objective truth by the Chinese regime. RT has created a global media empire: It is ubiquitous in Latin America, is expanding operations in Africa, and its messages are often fanned by Russian diplomats and a veritable army of bots.
While Beijing and Moscow use disinformation nearly everywhere, the developing world is a particularly attractive target. Long legacies of anti-Americanism and anti-imperialism create a receptive information environment. Whereas many advanced democracies are now cracking down on RT and Chinese influence operations, those endeavors enjoy freer rein in poorer parts of the globe.
The Soviets pumped disinformation into such nations during the Cold War because it was fairly effective. “A single press article containing sensational facts of a ‘new American conspiracy’ may be sufficient,” one KGB operative reported. “Other papers become interested, the public is shocked and government authorities … have a fresh opportunity to clamour against the imperialists while demonstrators hasten to break American embassy windows.” Putin and Xi hope for equally good returns today.
There are some signs this strategy is working. US officials report that they have returned from recent trips to Africa and Latin America sobered by the degree to which Moscow’s narrative about Ukraine has taken root. Covid was a soft-power catastrophe for China in developed countries, but its Covid-related disinformation appears to have left a mark in the global south.
The US, for its part, is fighting from a position of weakness. During the Cold War, it had the US Information Agency, an entity devoted to telling the truth and exposing the enemy’s lies. In the 1980s, the Active Measures Working Group coordinated the intelligence, law enforcement and diplomatic efforts to refute the AIDS smear and other Soviet disinformation. Neither institution exists anymore.
The State Department’s Global Engagement Center is gradually getting better at rebutting mistruths in real time. Yet the scale of the autocracies’ disinformation effort is probably greater than during the Cold War, while America’s capabilities for addressing the problem are weaker.
All things equal, truth will eventually prove more persuasive than lies. But there’s nothing equal about the information war in the developing world today.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Hal Brands at Hal.Brands@jhu.edu
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
15. Austin Cites ‘Long Haul' Support for Ukraine, Growth of Defense Industrial Bases
Ukraine could prove to be very important to strengthening US defense capabilities. If it causes us to reinvigorate and rejuvenate and regenerate our industrial base it will help us to be be better prepared for future large scale combat operations. Our industrial base and our ability to outproduce any enemy is our superpower.
Austin Cites ‘Long Haul' Support for Ukraine, Growth of Defense Industrial Bases - Air & Space Forces Magazine
airandspaceforces.com · by Greg Hadley · September 8, 2022
Sept. 8, 2022 | By
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Senior U.S. officials emphasized the long-term security of Ukraine and other European allies Sept. 8, announcing a new $2.2 billion aid package and plans to bolster their respective defense industrial bases.
The Department of Defense also announced another $675 million drawdown of security assistance for Ukraine, including more artillery, munitions, and High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARMs) for the fight against Russia.
That drawdown, the 20th authorized by President Joe Biden’s administration, brings the total security assistance authorized since Russia’s invasion began at around $14.5 billion. The full list of equipment and weapons in the package include:
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
- Four 105mm Howitzers and 36,000 105mm artillery rounds
- Additional High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM)
- 100 Armored High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWV)
- 1.5 million rounds of small arms ammunition
- More than 5,000 anti-armor systems
- 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems
- Additional grenade launchers and small arms
- 50 armored medical treatment vehicles
- Night vision devices and other field equipment.
The bigger chunk of funds allocated Sept. 8, however, came when the State Department announced it will make $2.2 billion available for long-term investments under Foreign Military Financing—roughly half for Ukraine and half for 18 other nations in the region.
Those countries—Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia—include “many of our NATO Allies, as well as other regional security partners potentially at risk of future Russian aggression,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said in a statement.
At the same time, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley traveled to Ramstein Air Base, Germany, where they met with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a consortium of about 50 countries. In the group’s fifth meeting, the emphasis was on supporting Ukraine “over the long haul,” Austin said in a press briefing.
Six months after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, many countries “continue to dig deep and provide equipment out of their own military stocks,” Austin noted. In particular, Austin praised the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia for “reinvigorating their industrial bases to meet Ukraine self defense needs.”
But with more than a dozen other countries also slated to get long-term investments and other European nations looking to ramp up their defense spending as well, Austin said planning is underway to coordinate how different countries’ defense industrial bases can work together.
“In the next few weeks in coordination with NATO, the United States will host a special session under the auspices of this contact group to bring together our senior national armaments directors, and they will discuss how our defense industrial bases can best equip Ukraine’s future forces with the capabilities that they need,” he said.
Not only will Ukraine’s future needs be considered, Austin added. Members of the Contact Group want to ensure their own stockpiles remain robust as they support Ukraine. For the U.S., in particular, senior leaders have insisted for months the aid given to Ukraine won’t deplete the Pentagon’s stockpiles. A recent report from the Wall Street Journal, however, indicated there is some concern within DOD about the levels of some munitions.
“We all believe that working together, we can better streamline things—we can shorten acquisition times, perhaps work on supply chain issues, learn from each other,” Austin said of the Contact Group.
And not only will Ukraine benefit from that cooperation and increased investment, Austin argued—“NATO writ large” will benefit if leaders can increase interoperability down to the industrial base level, he said.
While the focus of the contact group meeting was on Ukraine’s long-term future, the conflict continues to grind. Recently, the Ukrainians launched a counter-offensive meant to push Russia out of occupied territory in the east and south of the country, Milley confirmed.
That counter-offensive’s movement has been slow but steady, according to observers, and Milley pushed back when a reporter asked if progress has been modest or moderate.
“I would characterize it as a very deliberate offensive operation that is calibrated to set conditions and then seize their objectives,” Milley said. “We think at this point that their progress—you mentioned the word modest or moderate—their progress is steady, and it’s deliberate.”
Russia-Ukraine
airandspaceforces.com · by Greg Hadley · September 8, 2022
16. Nuclear deterrence lessons from Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
Where you stand depends on where you sit.
Excerpts:
“Similarly, China’s nuclear no-first-use policy has evolved to become more of a ‘no-first-use against non-nuclear states.’ Even then, as Chinese writings suggest, there are situations where China might still respond to a conventional attack with nuclear weapons (e.g., in the event of an attack on China’s nuclear power plants).”
The whole situation, Cheng said, is a reminder that China’s “views of nuclear use are often deliberately obfuscatory and cloudy,” and largely not understood by the US.
A second analyst, who commented only on background, said that China may well have concluded that Russia’s threats worked as deterrents and that China could do something similar to protect its interests regarding Taiwan.
“It seems one of the lessons learned for Beijing might well be that there is a need to beef up their nuclear capabilities as a means of deterring the US in a Taiwan contingency,” the analyst said in an email. But, “This is something the analyst community has to dig into a bit more to understand how effective of a deterrent it actually is,” the expert wrote.
Nuclear deterrence lessons from Pelosi's visit to Taiwan - Breaking Defense
Ambiguity marks China's management of its nuclear forces and how it discusses them and uses them to deter. Unlike the US and Russia, Dean Cheng said "the Chinese believe ambiguity and doubt promote deterrence."
breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark · September 8, 2022
A DF-5B ICBM seen during the 2015 China Victory Day parade. (CCTV)
SYDNEY — The Taiwan visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sparked what appeared to be the threat of the use of nuclear delivery systems to help China signal the seriousness of its reaction to the visit.
But what the signaling actually demonstrates, two experts say, is that China is highly unlikely to ever engage in first-use of nuclear weapons and its signaling is opaque, creating greater uncertainty about just what China wants observers to think.
For example, the South China Morning Post reported that just before Pelosi’s visit occurred “video footage of two vehicles carrying the two-stage liquid-fuel Dongfeng 5B intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) circulated on mainland social media platforms Weibo and WeChat.”
Given that China strictly tracks and censors what can appear on the web, on its face this would seem to indicate that China was signaling at least that it possessed nuclear capable weapons. Add the timing, and it would seem reasonable to conclude that China was subtly threatening their use, or at least reminding observers of the fact that they could be used.
The SCMP said the videos also “showed other Dongfeng nuclear-capable missiles – including the road-mobile DF-27, DF-16 and DF-15B – moving through city streets. All Dongfeng-series missiles are capable of delivering nuclear warheads, while the DF-5B ICBM has a range of up to 15,000km (9,321 miles), enabling it to hit North America.”
Two China experts agreed that China appeared to be using nuclear weapons to signal the world about Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, though exactly what message the People’s Republic was sending was uncertain.
“Back in 2005, LTG Xiong Guangkai, head of PLA 2nd Department (i.e., military intel) made famous comments about Taiwan and Los Angeles,” Dean Cheng, a top expert on the Chinese military at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said in an email. “The common American interpretation (then) was that Xiong was threatening to nuke the US if it intervened over Taiwan. In fact, if you look at what Xiong said, it was that in the 1950s, the US could threaten China with nuclear escalation in the context of Taiwan (1956/1958 Taiwan straits crises), but now that China has nuclear weapons, the United States would have to tread more carefully.
“Similarly, China’s nuclear no-first-use policy has evolved to become more of a ‘no-first-use against non-nuclear states.’ Even then, as Chinese writings suggest, there are situations where China might still respond to a conventional attack with nuclear weapons (e.g., in the event of an attack on China’s nuclear power plants).”
The whole situation, Cheng said, is a reminder that China’s “views of nuclear use are often deliberately obfuscatory and cloudy,” and largely not understood by the US.
A second analyst, who commented only on background, said that China may well have concluded that Russia’s threats worked as deterrents and that China could do something similar to protect its interests regarding Taiwan.
“It seems one of the lessons learned for Beijing might well be that there is a need to beef up their nuclear capabilities as a means of deterring the US in a Taiwan contingency,” the analyst said in an email. But, “This is something the analyst community has to dig into a bit more to understand how effective of a deterrent it actually is,” the expert wrote.
Strategic Ambiguity As A Feature
Ambiguity marks China’s management of its nuclear forces and how it discusses them and uses them to deter, Cheng said. Unlike the US and Russia, he said “the Chinese believe ambiguity and doubt PROMOTE deterrence.”
To contrast the two approaches, here is how the US managed its most recent test of a Minuteman III nuclear delivery system.
In a regular press briefing on Sept. 6 at the Pentagon, the new Pentagon spokesman, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, said this:
“There will be an operational test launch of an Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile early tomorrow morning, September 7, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. This launch is a routine test which was scheduled far in advance, and consistent with previous tests, this ICBM launch will validate and verify effectiveness and readiness of the system. In accordance with standard procedures, the United States has transmitted a prelaunch notification pursuant to the Hague Code of Conduct, and notified the Russian government in advance pursuant to treaty obligations.”
That follows a long tradition of the US making clear to Russia, China and the rest of the world that a test is going to occur. Notably, the Biden administration has previously announced that it delayed ICBM tests to avoid the risk of misunderstanding given current events — first delaying a test in March in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and then delaying again at the start of August as tensions soared around Pelosi’s visit.
“As China engages in destabilizing military exercises around Taiwan, the United States is demonstrating instead the behavior of a responsible nuclear power by reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in August about the decision to delay the test. “We do not believe it is in our interest, Taiwan’s interest, the region’s interests, to allow tensions to escalate further, which is why a long planned Minuteman III ICBM test scheduled for this week has been rescheduled for the near future.”
On top of all that, China apparently intends to greatly expand the size of its nuclear forces, which have traditionally been kept quite small compared to the US and Russia.
The recent publicity surrounding the construction of more than 200 new Chinese nuclear missile silos has driven home the scale of China’s nuclear modernization — which clearly has been planned for some time, given how long it takes to build fields of silos — which will give China new capabilities in terms of both strike and deterrence.
In contrast to the opacity around how it handles its nuclear weapons, Beijing’s management of its conventional deterrence message during the Pelosi visit was much clearer, with repeated warnings from a raft of Chinese spokespeople and military experts that the US and other forces should act as Beijing wants regarding Taiwan.
But In terms of nuclear deterrence, Cheng says China has been drawing lessons from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons to deter the West, and that is driving Beijing to signal about Taiwan — however vague those signals might be. And he noted that China, even before Ukraine, had decided to build many more nuclear silos as part of what is clearly a major nuclear modernization effort.
“For example, because Russia has nukes, the West (NATO) does not openly support Ukraine, beyond provision of weapons, BUT is prepared to wage long-term economic warfare. What does this imply for the PRC? Presumably that the West, led by the US, would counter a Chinese move on the South China Sea or Taiwan with sanctions, but might refrain from directly fighting against Chinese forces. HOWEVER, Biden’s repeated claims that the US WOULD intervene and defend Taiwan then leaves the Chinese confused. So, to keep the second aspect limited (and ideally not occur at all), they remind the West that China has nuclear weapons.
“And not just nuclear weapons,” he notes, “but MORE AND MORE nuclear weapons, as reflected by the silos found in the western desert. This is a China that will likely enjoy nuclear parity in the not-very-future.”
17. AFSOC Commander Is on a ‘Jihad' Against Centralization. Here's Why
He is bucking a military trend I think. I hope he can make this happen. The more connectivity and information we have the more we are prone to try to centralize.
Every commander should be looking to push decision making and authority for action to the correct lowest level. (there is not cookie cutter solution or one right level for all - it depends on the organizations, mission, and conditions and thus requires analysis in every situation and should be an integral part of command and control considerations - if I were king for a day the 5th paragraph of the 5 paragraph operations order would include a description of decision making authorities by echelon of command. But I digress.) Instead we look to raise decision making to higher and higher levels in the hopes that this will reduce errors. We sacrifice speed of action in the hopes of preventing failure when ironically we often raise decision making authority to a level that may not have the ability to actually prevent mistakes and the slowness built into the system by doing so increases the chances of failure or of taking action too late to achieve the necessary effect.
AFSOC Commander Is on a ‘Jihad' Against Centralization. Here's Why - Air & Space Forces Magazine
airandspaceforces.com · by Greg Hadley · September 8, 2022
Sept. 8, 2022 | By
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Air Force Special Operations Command boss Lt. Gen. James C. “Jim” Slife extolled the benefits of the service’s new force generation and deployment model when it comes to explaining and managing risk for AFSOC—and warned against the dangers of centralization for the same reason.
Speaking at an AFA Warfighters in Action event Sept. 7, Slife argued that risk is often a forgotten element in the balancing act between mission requirements and resources.
“If you tell me, ‘Hey, Jim, I need you to do more mission with no more resources,’ I can do that. It just comes with increased risk, right?” Slife said. “Or if you tell me, ‘You’re taking too much risk. I need you to reduce the level of risk you’re taking,’ I can do that. It either means I do less mission or I need more resources. So I mean, there’s a three-way relationship here, and what we have to be better at is articulating risk in ways that are understandable to people outside the bubble of the Air and Space Forces.”
Force Generation
That challenge of articulating risk is of particular importance when it comes to deployments, Slife said.
The Air Force has implemented a new force generation model in recent years centered on four six-month cycles—“available to commit,” “reset,” “prepare,” and “ready.” After years of heavy deployment tempos in the Middle East, the new model gives Airmen and their families more predictability, leaders said.
But the system isn’t just better for the average Airman, Slife said. It’s also useful for commanders who want to look after their people while getting the mission done.
There’s tension between mission risk and resources.
“When I was an ops group commander, we were kind of in the … ‘more ISR, more ISR, more ISR’ business, and we had a couple of squadrons of MQ-1s and MQ-9s. And the question was always, ‘Hey, can you fly one more combat line for us?’ Slife said. “And how do you answer that question? I actually have a crew here that’s available. And I actually have an airplane that’s available, and I have a ground control station. And so, I mean, the answer is, ‘Yes, I can.’ But what I’m unable to communicate is the pressure on the force, right? I’m unable to communicate … the risk or the opportunity cost.”
With more clearly defined cycles, communicating those costs has become easier.
“We’ve been unable to talk about our capacity in a way that resonates with the Joint Force. It becomes too technical and complicated. And so when we migrated to a four-cycle force generation model, it allows us to have these conversations very unemotionally and very fact-based and allows us to articulate risk and capacity in a way that has really eluded us,” Slife said.
As an example, Slife cited last summer’s Afghanistan evacuation. As Kabul fell to the Taliban and the U.S. raced to evacuate Americans and threatened Afghans, Pentagon and U.S. Central Command leaders turned to AFSOC to provide AC-130J gunships to protect the forces and the aircraft flying in and out.
Using the force generation model, Slife explained that he could surge capacity, but that it would change the deployment cycles for Airmen and have effects on their schedules down the line. Leaders agreed to accept those effects.
“So we sent some more gunships to Afghanistan last summer. Two of those crews won the Mackay Trophy last year, did fantastic work,” Slife said. “But the key thing is, in October of last year, for the first time in 20 years, there were no gunships in CENTCOM.”
‘Jihad’ on Centralization
Mission requirements aren’t the only drivers of risk, though. A lack of resources can also cause issues, and Slife has no interest in trying to hide those gaps.
“I’m really on a kind of a jihad here against centralization inside of AFSOC—one of the evils of centralization is it masks your shortages,” Slife said.
When the Air Force or major commands consolidate all of one capability into one unit, it may seem that there is enough capacity to go around, Slife said. But when “maximum effort and deploying” are required, the shortfall becomes clear.
Instead of organizing units around capabilities, Slife wants to organize around mission sets, which “[highlights] the shortages we have,” he said.
In particular, Slife highlighted tactical communications equipment as an area where AFSOC needs to spend more.
“While we have had enough to operate out of fixed bases, where there’s already infrastructure in place, and all you’ve got to do is plug in, all the equipment’s already there, that’s not what the future environment looks like,” Slife said. “And so what we’re realizing is we’ve got some significant investments that we need to make in tactical communications, and I would tell you kind of the key area that we’re looking for there is software-defined capabilities.”
Slife’s focus on communications outside of fixed bases is in line with the Air Force’s embrace of agile combat employment, the operating concept whereby small teams of Airmen operate in remote or austere environments and move quickly.
Indeed, AFSOC has combined the concepts of ACE with mission-oriented units in its Mission Sustainment Teams, groups of Airmen with different speciality codes who can support themselves and other units anywhere in the field.
The MSTs have quickly become “in demand across our force,” Slife said. “Everybody wants to deploy with their own mission sustainment team. It’s pretty interesting.”
Air
Air Force Association
airandspaceforces.com · by Greg Hadley · September 8, 2022
18. VA Weighs Ditching Lincoln Quote for Motto That's Inclusive of Women and Minorities
My knee jerk reaction after reading the headline was ``let's stop the insanity'' and that we are going overboard in trying to be "politically correct" and expecting our history and the leaders who were leading in a different time. But I have to say that reading the proposals has changed my mind. There are some good compromises. And I think what we are trying to do is ensure the dignity and respect for all while not denying our past or disrespecting it all. The proposals respectfully capture Lincoln's words and put them in today's context. If Lincoln were alive today he would have created modern and brilliant quotes in keeping with the times and context of today as he did during the time and context of his life. But I am ready for the hate mail for those who will say my knee jerk reaction was correct. But I do think we have to be careful in not going overboard on political correctness and the VA seems to show a positive way forward without disprecting our history.
VA Weighs Ditching Lincoln Quote for Motto That's Inclusive of Women and Minorities
military.com · by Patricia Kime · September 8, 2022
A change could be coming this year to the Department of Veterans Affairs' motto, a quote from Abraham Lincoln that critics say is not inclusive of women, people of color and LGBTQ veterans.
VA officials have been consulting with veterans to get their feedback and proposals to make the motto more inclusive, according to VA Secretary Denis McDonough. The current motto, taken from Lincoln’s second inaugural address and was adopted in 1959, pledges the department will "care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow, and his orphan."
"The most important thing for me here is that the change is informed by veterans' views, and so we've been going through the process of talking with ... consulting a wide range of adults, including women," McDonough said during an interview Thursday.
He said an announcement would be made "when it's ready, but it's not ready."
The move was opposed by the previous administration. But shortly after being appointed VA secretary by President Joe Biden, McDonough pledged to make the department more inclusive and welcoming to veterans, including women, veterans of color and LGBTQ vets who may previously have felt excluded from VA care and services.
The quote was uttered by Lincoln on March 4, 1865, and versions of it have appeared at times on unofficial VA correspondence, programs and paperwork, and in one case even an official statement.
They include: "To care for those 'who shall have borne the battle' and for their families and survivors;" and "To fulfill President Lincoln's promise 'To care for him who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow, and his orphan' by serving and honoring the men and women who are America's veterans."
Advocates for the change have said the motto, which is displayed at most VA facilities, including offices, hospitals and cemeteries, is androcentric; makes female, gay and transgender veterans feel unwelcome; and could serve as a barrier to health care and services.
Rep. Kathleen Rice, D-N.Y., sponsored legislation in the House in 2020 to change the motto. The measure did not get through the Senate.
"In keeping with Lincoln's focus on equality for all, I'm sure if he were alive today he would say women should be acknowledged as well," and shouldn't be left off the motto "just because they didn't serve back then," Rice said during a hearing in 2019.
McDonough's predecessor, Secretary Robert Wilkie, who was appointed by President Donald Trump, opposed the change and took steps to broaden the motto’s use, adding plaques and historical interpretive signs at VA cemeteries to explain how the quote came to become the department's motto.
Wilkie said the words should remain as they stand "so every generation understands the origin of America's progress in becoming the most tolerant nation on earth."
"The words that brought us here should not be diluted, parsed or canceled," Wilkie said during a memorial unveiling in Lincoln's hometown of Springfield, Illinois, in 2020.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that changing the motto would cost roughly $1 million over the next five years to cover replacement of plaques and other displays of the verbiage.
-- Patricia Kime can be reached at Patricia.Kime@Military.com. Follow her on Twitter @patriciakime.
military.com · by Patricia Kime · September 8, 2022
19. General Officer Announcements (New Vice Comander USSOCOM)
General Officer Announcements
defense.gov
Release
Immediate Release
Sept. 9, 2022
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced today that the president has made the following nominations:
Marine Corps Maj. Gen. James F. Glynn for appointment to the grade of lieutenant general, with assignment as deputy commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs, Quantico, Virginia. Glynn is currently serving as deputy commanding general, Training and Education Command, Quantico, Virginia.
Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Francis L. Donovan for appointment to the grade of lieutenant general, with assignment as vice commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, Pentagon, Washington, D.C. Donovan is currently serving as director, Office of Marine Corps Communication, Washington, D.C.
Marine Corps Reserve Brig. Gen. Leonard F. Anderson IV for appointment to the grade of major general. Anderson is currently serving as commanding general, 4th Marine Aircraft Wing, U.S. Marine Forces Reserve, New Orleans, Louisiana.
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20. New Philippine administration considers more base access for US military, ambassador says
New Philippine administration considers more base access for US military, ambassador says
Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · September 9, 2022
A U.S. Marine walks past joint light tactical vehicles during a Balikatan drill at Naval Base Camilo Osias, Philippines, March 26, 2022. (Madison Santamaria/U.S. Marine Corps)
The United States and the Philippines are talking about increasing the number of military bases in the island nation that visiting American forces may use, according to the Philippine ambassador to the United States.
The talks on expanded base access were revealed by Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez in comments reported Sept. 5 by The Nikkei newspaper in Japan.
"Our military and the military of the United States are all looking into what are the possible areas," he said.
A naval base may be included in the list of sites available to the U.S., Romualdez told newspaper.
Facilities for visiting American forces were supposed to be built on five Philippine military bases under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. However, the only facility completed to date is a warehouse at Cesar Basa Air Base on Luzon.
The agreement also covers Antonio Bautista Air Base, Palawan; Benito Ebbed Air Base, Mactan; Cebu, Fort Magsaysay; Nuyeve Ecija, and Lumbia Airport, Cagayan de Oro.
Asked when the base access plans might be implemented, Romualdez told Nikkei: “Hopefully, in the next three years, that we can have all of these areas that we have identified already.”
The U.S. Embassy in Manila did not provide Stars and Stripes a response to questions about the talks this week.
An unnamed Pentagon spokesperson quoted in the Nikkei report said the U.S. and the Philippines "hold regular discussions on deepening our enduring security alliance under the auspices of the Mutual Defense Treaty and multiple other agreements, including the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement."
The allies seek to enhance the posture of their alliance to address new and emerging challenges, the spokesperson said.
“We intend to continue to implement infrastructure projects at current EDCA locations and explore additional sites for further development," the spokesperson said.
U.S. military planners focus on the Philippines as they consider dispersing their forces among small islands in the Western Pacific and size up the prospect of a conflict over Taiwan.
For example, members of the Marine Corps’ newly formed 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment practiced the tactics of expeditionary advanced base operations during the annual Balikatan drills in the Philippines in April.
The U.S. in 2015 requested access to eight bases in the Philippines, including Subic Bay and Clark Air Base, according to Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales and lecturer at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
Subic and Clark formed America’s largest overseas military community before both were damaged in the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo and, soon after, returned to the Philippines.
Former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, whose six-year term ended in June, had threatened to withdraw from an agreement that facilitates training by U.S. forces in his country, and he excluded Clark and Subic from the bases covered by the defense cooperation agreement, Thayer said in an email Tuesday.
“U.S. access was always under the shadow of Duterte's whims,” he said.
The Philippines’ new president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of the country’s late dictator who ruled from 1965-1986, “doesn't have the anti-American chip on his shoulder that Duterte had,” Thayer said. “It is difficult to imagine the Philippines refusing a request from the U.S. for access if a major conflict broke out between China and the US over Taiwan.”
Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · September 9, 2022
21. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says
Intelligence and military assessments seem to be coordinated.
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says
By Julian E. Barnes
nytimes.com · September 8, 2022
Six months into “a very tough slog of a war,” Ukraine has begun to mount a counteroffensive and Russia’s invasion can only be seen as a failure, the director of the C.I.A., William J. Burns, said Thursday.
Citing the counterattacks in the south and around Kharkiv in the northeast, Mr. Burns said that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, had badly underestimated Ukraine’s courage and capacity for combat.
While the final chapter of the war is yet to be written, Mr. Burns said it was “hard to see Putin’s record in the war as anything but a failure.”
Mr. Burns said that Mr. Putin was surrounded by advisers who are unwilling to challenge him and that the Russian leader mistakenly believed that European resolve will waver and American attention will wander the longer the conflict drags on.
“Putin’s bet right now is that he is going to be tougher than the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans,” Mr. Burns said, speaking at the Billington CyberSecurity conference in Washington. “I believe, and my colleagues at C.I.A. believe, that Putin is as wrong about that bet as he was profoundly wrong in his assumptions going back to last February about Ukrainian will to resist.”
That has had profound consequences, Mr. Burns said.
“Not only has the weakness of the Russian military been exposed,” he said, “but there is going to be long-term damage done to the Russian economy and to generations of Russians.”
nytimes.com · September 8, 2022
22. Okinawa Key to Japan's Defense Against China, North Korea, Says Expert
Our 11 carrier battle group.
Okinawa Key to Japan's Defense Against China, North Korea, Says Expert - USNI News
news.usni.org · by John Grady · September 8, 2022
U.S. Marines with 3d Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment, 3d Marine Division, load CH-53E Super Stallions with 1st Marine Aircraft Wing during Castaway 21.1 on Ie Shima, Okinawa, Japan, March 16, 2021. U.S. Marine Corps Photo
Winning the hearts and minds of Okinawans is critical to strengthening Japan’s own defenses against China, Russia and North Korea, one of Japan’s leading security experts said Thursday.
Support from Okinawans is also key to smoothing over difficulties in Tokyo’s military alliance with Washington, said Kunihiko Miyake, the research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies.
Speaking at a Hudson Institute online forum, Miyake said China’s missile launches that landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone should be viewed as “another black ship” for Tokyo. He was referring to the unexpected arrival of an American flotilla commanded by Matthew C. Perry in 1853 that within a year opened Japan to a trade agreement with the United States. China launched the missiles last month to show its anger over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan.
Now with Washington and Tokyo voicing support for Taiwan, the Status of Forces Agreement between the two nations has taken on new significance. It “has been the most difficult issue” to resolve over the years, Miyake said. One example of that difficulty is the seven years-long controversy surrounding the relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.
The American military presence on 31 installations located on Okinawa remains a concern among Okinawans as tensions with China has risen.
What makes Okinawa so strategically important is geography, Miyake said. The threat from China to Japan comes from the sea and the south. Okinawa is about 500 miles north of Taiwan. About 70 percent of the U.S. military presence in Japan is on Okinawa.
In a serious review of the agreement, he suggested “increasing joint use of bases” in Okinawa. The U.S. forces assigned to Okinawa “would be regarded as guests” of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. He added that 70 to 80 percent of the miliary bases on the island are under American control.
“It’s a headache for Okinawans,” he said.
Miyake argued this would be one step necessary “to make ourselves more ready for a contingency.”
Looking at Tokyo’s defense spending, Miyake said the government has “to raise the Japanese public’s awareness” of the need to increase defense spending from 1.2 percent of gross domestic product. He noted the NATO standard for its members is to reach 2 percent of GDP and allocate that percentage to security.
The public also needs to understand the reasoning for increased defense spending that is likely to emerge in three important national security-related strategy documents due out by the end of the year.
“It will be very difficult” to move all these proposals through the Japanese Diet, he said.
In earlier remarks, Miyake said, “we cannot defend ourselves” without an ally, like the United States. But Japan needs to help secure itself as well through security spending and strategy.
“Even if we have an alliance, if you don’t have a defense, allies won’t help you,” making it imperative that the Japanese public see what the current close military relationship between Moscow and Beijing means in terms of their own security. Less than a week ago, the Chinese and Russian navies held joint live-fire drills around Japan as part of a larger military exercise.
If nothing is done, Miyake added, “we won’t have enough bullets; we don’t have enough missiles” in the nation’s arsenal for a prolonged conflict. He also noted shortfalls in ships for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and also funds to re-align Japan’s ground forces so they’re more like the U.S. Marine Corps.
“In my neighborhood, we have 2.5 threats” that need to be addressed, Miyake said, referring to China, Russia and North Korea. Tokyo “could do more with the Quad,” the informal security and economic arrangement between Japan, the U.S., Australia and India. He also cited the need for closer coordination with Seoul and Washington in dealing with Pyongyang and Beijing.
Miyake, who has diplomatic experience in the Middle East, said Tokyo’s future security can’t be solely focused on the Indo-Pacific. Japan’s economy is dependent on sea lines of communication into the Middle East for energy and trade with Europe.
“Did the 5th Fleet leave the Gulf? Did the [U.S.] Air Force leave the Gulf?” after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Miyake asked rhetorically, referring to the Middle East-based U.S. 5th Fleet. “No,” he added. “Without them we wouldn’t have the sea lines of communication.”
He said a strong NATO stabilizes European security and reminds Russian President Valdimir Putin that “a dictator’s mistakes are much more difficult to amend,” like his invasion of Ukraine. The Feb. 24 unprovoked attack not only drew the alliance closer together, but moved Sweden and Finland to apply for membership. He added that the NATO alliance also welcomed Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Youn Suk-yeol to the June meeting in Madrid.
“The Russians made a big mistake” not realizing that their largest security challenge was China, not NATO, Miyake argued.
Related
news.usni.org · by John Grady · September 8, 2022
23. Iran Sends Written Warning to Countries Hosting US Army
Iranian political and psychological warfare.
Iran Sends Written Warning to Countries Hosting US Army
english.aawsat.com · by London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat
Iran's Chief of Staff, Mohammad Bagheri, said that Tehran has sent a written warning to the countries hosting the US army in the region.
Bagheri condemned Israel's joining the US Central Command (CENTCOM), accusing Washington of seeking to "fill the vacuum" of its forces in the region.
He said that in recent months, the US army tried to fill in its absence caused by withdrawing its aircraft carriers, helicopters, and destroyers from the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman by allowing Israel to join CENTCOM.
Central Command was expanded last year to include Israel, a move seen to encourage regional cooperation against Iran under former President Donald Trump.
The commander noted that from Iran's viewpoint, such a development means that the espionage and operational capacities of the US and its allies will be at the "disposal of the Zionist regime," which would, in turn, add to the threats against Iran.
Apart from the written announcements and warnings and conveying messages via the Foreign Ministry to the countries hosting the US army, "we have declared and continue to declare our preparedness and warnings by extending presence, expanding aerial and naval patrols, deepening the intelligence dominance, and holding various naval, missile and drone war games," Bagheri stated.
Bagheri expressed Iran's concern about the expansion of CENTCOM twice in 72 hours.
On Monday, Bagheri inaugurated a new patrol combat vessel named "Qassim Soleimani" at a ceremony held in Bandar Abbas port.
He said Israel's joining CENTCOM could threaten Iran, adding that Tehran has announced through international channels that it will not tolerate the presence of these units in the region and will be confronted.
Iran said it would submit a complaint to the International Maritime Organization.
Meanwhile, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters (KACHQ), Gholamali Rashid, said that Israel is a threat to Iran's national security and will respond to possible moves accordingly.
Speaking on the sidelines of a gathering of ground forces commanders, Rashid warned that "all mercenary agents and groups and governments that cooperate with the Zionist regime in threatening the national security of Iran will pay a (heavy) price.”
Tasnim news agency stated that Rashid's comments came in response to recent Israeli threats to take measures against Iran's nuclear facilities.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile unit commander, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said that Israel switched from an offensive to a defensive approach.
Hajizadeh stated that the current developments are very appropriate, adding that Iran overcame a challenging decade that began with the sanctions imposed by former President Barack Obama.
He accused the previous US administration of increasing regional tensions, referring to the assassination of Qassim Soleimani, who was killed in a US strike in early 2020.
Recently, Iran seized two US military drones in the Red Sea as the two countries continued their nuclear negotiations.
The US Navy recently said it had thwarted an attempt by the IRGC naval forces to seize a sailboat of the US Fifth Fleet in the Gulf.
According to state television, Iran acknowledged that the Navy released two US maritime drones in the Red Sea but accused the unmanned vessels of jeopardizing naval safety.
The two incidents followed an exchange of fire last week between US forces and Iran-backed groups in Syria.
Israel, which sees Iran's nuclear program as a threat to its existence, has warned of military action against its nuclear sites if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran's nuclear work.
Iran has repeatedly said it will give a crushing response to any aggression.
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid warned Iran against continuing to "test" Israel's "long arm."
"It is still too early to know if we have succeeded in stopping the nuclear agreement, but Israel is prepared for every threat and every scenario," Lapid said.
"If Iran continues to test us, it will discover Israel's long arm and capabilities," he said, vowing to "continue to act on all fronts against terrorism and against those who seek to harm us."
Lapid agreed with US President Joe Biden that Israel has complete freedom to act as "we see fit to prevent the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear threat."
english.aawsat.com · by London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat
24. Digital great game: The West’s standoff against China and Russia
This is a critical area of strategic compensation and we must be successful here.
Digital great game: The West’s standoff against China and Russia
An upcoming vote at a UN agency in charge of digital standards has reignited a fight over who should control the internet.
Politico · by Mary S. Booth · September 8, 2022
The wonky world of global tech standards is usually far from a "Game of Thrones" melodrama. But ahead of a critical election at a key United Nations agency later this month, the world's top telecommunications and government officials have all embraced their inner Khaleesi.
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) — a 150-year-old body that sets rules for how much of the global telecom and tech infrastructure works — will gather at end of September in Bucharest for a three-week conference. The more than 190 member countries will elect a new secretary-general and other top brass, as well as set the policy goals for the U.N. agency for the next four years. The two candidates for the top job, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, an American, and Rashid Ismailov, a Russian, have crisscrossed the globe to rally support from telecom policymakers and regulators.
A lot is on the line. The ITU has become ground zero in a battle for how internet networks work — everything from next-generation mobile networks to potential worldwide rules for autonomous cars.
"Everybody is trying to advance the technology for their own interests," Malcolm Johnson, the ITU's outgoing deputy secretary-general and former British regulator, told reporters Wednesday.
In one corner stand the European Union, United States and other Western democracies that support a more free-for-all version of the internet. They defend a core belief that countries should not dictate how the digital world is run and push for the involvement of nonprofit organizations and companies in how these rules are created.
In the other is China, Russia and other authoritarian countries. They have consistently called for a model that would place politicians in the driver's seat over tech standards to give governments the final say over what can appear online. They have targeted the ITU — a U.N. agency where countries dominate over other entities — as a central lobbying venue to push their agenda, which, if successful, would overturn the version of the internet that has existed for the last 40 years.
"China has clearly been able to use the internet for the effect of social scoring," said Tom Wheeler, a former chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, in reference to how Beijing has used people's online data to keep tabs on their offline behavior. "The question becomes, 'Do you want to restructure the internet so as to cause that?' I think that's the change that's happening here."
Horse-trading for votes
The ITU's leadership race is an opaque world that makes even the votes to host FIFA's World Cup soccer tournament look transparent in comparison.
But this time, the U.S.-Russia standoff over who will run the agency has raised the stakes and gained attention beyond the in-crowd at the Geneva-based body.
Bogdan-Martin, a longtime ITU official, finds herself as the poster child for the West's vision of the internet. Her opponent, Rashid Ismailov, is Russia's former telecom minister and a longtime industry executive who's worked for European heavy-hitters Nokia and Ericsson.
It's not just their opposing views on global tech rules that separate them. Bogdan-Martin and Ismailov have also become unwitting representatives of the two sides pitted against each other in Russia's war on Ukraine. During an ITU conference earlier this year, for instance, Moscow's candidates for several of the agency's standards committees were excluded because of the war in Ukraine — an unprecedented move.
Bogdan-Martin declined to comment for this article, while Ismailov did not respond to repeated requests for comment. But POLITICO talked to more than a dozen diplomats from Western countries and across the Global South, almost all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal ITU deliberations, and officials were still unclear who would become the agency's top official.
To win, a candidate needs at least 50 percent of the votes when officials of the member countries cast their ballots on September 29-30. Election rounds continue until one official is left standing.
In a sign of greater transatlantic cooperation, Washington is supporting Brussels' pick for the body's deputy secretary, Tomas Lamanauskas, a former Lithuanian telecom official, while the 27-country bloc is similarly backing the U.S. candidate. In a internal document outlining the EU's position on the upcoming election, obtained by POLITICO, the bloc pushed back against expanding the ITU's role into other global standards, reaffirmed the need to include nongovernmental organizations in these talks, and raised concerns about how some within the U.N. agency were using the process to undermine global privacy standards.
Yet two diplomats from nonaligned countries said Russia had been pressing the flesh with governments that had shown interest in more control over digital standards. Moscow used its decades of political connections across the Global South to lean on would-be supporters with the promise of greater sovereignty over their own affairs in a U.N. system still often dominated by the U.S. and Europe.
"There is a fear that the Russian candidate might win and that we cannot let it happen," said a European diplomat. "The question is if Russia can convince African countries to vote."
For now, Beijing favors Moscow's candidate, according to three of the diplomats involved in the horse-trading. But that strategy was not so clear cut: "China doesn't want an American at the top of the ITU. But it also doesn't want to be publicly siding with Russia" after the invasion of Ukraine, said one of the officials, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Below the surface, there's China
Russia may be running for the ITU's top job, but China, whose official, Houlin Zhao, is the agency's outgoing secretary-general, is never too far away.
In the years leading up to this month's vote, the world's second-largest economy has foregone brash public statements favored by Moscow. Instead, it has pursued a well-resourced and widespread targeting of key, but low-ranking, positions in global digital standards agencies to push its own agenda, according to five government officials, three industry executives and four officials from nonprofit organizations involved in these meetings.
There are at least two Chinese officials — some government regulators, some corporate executives — in the ITU's myriad working groups, which help to set the agency's agenda, based on POLITICO's review of the agency's structure. At the 3rd Generation Partnership Project, another tech-standards body, Beijing also has 19 leadership positions in its committees compared with 12 for the U.S. and 14 for all EU countries, based on POLITICO's analysis.
China has clear goals. It has repeatedly put forward proposals known as "new IP" at the U.N. agency, mostly driven by the country's effort to boost its domestic tech sector. The technology, which, if successful, would be baked into internet infrastructure, would require people to register themselves to gain access to online services and would allow governments to turn off parts of the internet almost instantaneously.
Despite Beijing's best efforts, those proposals have so far fallen flat.
The latest attempt, put forward by Chinese telecom giant Huawei earlier this year, was again rejected after other governments, the global civil society movement and non-Chinese companies balked at the suggestions. In response, Beijing is now parceling out those efforts into smaller, bite-sized global standards to feed them slowly into the ITU and other bodies, according to Oxford Information Labs' Chief Executive Emily Taylor, who co-authored a report into China's evolving tactics.
"China is taking some of the proposals that would normally be raising in the ITU to the Internet Engineering Task Force," said Mallory Knodel, chief technology officer at Centre for Democracy & Technology, a Washington-based nonprofit organization, and member of the U.S. delegation to the upcoming ITU meeting, in reference to another standards body.
But Beijing also "gets a lot of pushback because the technical merits (of its standards) just aren't good," she added.
Discover the Digital Bridge newsletter
I'm Mark Scott, POLITICO's chief tech correspondent, and if you enjoyed this story, check out Digital Bridge, my weekly newsletter on EU-US digital politics.
Politico · by Mary S. Booth · September 8, 2022
25. Shield Critical Infrastructure from Electromagnetic Pulses, DHS Says
A critical threat that is hard for most of us laymen to envision and one that should not be neglected (but has).
Shield Critical Infrastructure from Electromagnetic Pulses, DHS Says
The National Public Warning System offers a model for defending other vital systems and services.
defenseone.com · by Edward Graham
Busà Photography/Getty Images
By Edward Graham
Technology Reporter, Nextgov
September 8, 2022 09:00 AM ET
The Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate on Tuesday released a report outlining a series of best practices that local, state and federal agencies—and private-sector partners—should implement to protect critical infrastructure services from electromagnetic pulses.
DHS’s Electromagnetic Pulse Shielding Mitigations report—which includes input from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and feedback from industry and government representatives—builds on the best practices used to protect the National Public Warning System, the network of radio stations that allows the U.S. president to communicate with the American public during a national emergency.
FEMA’s Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Program includes 77 private-sector broadcast stations that use “multiple, connected EMP-protected shelters” and are “equipped with backup communications equipment and a power generator” to ensure that information can be broadcast through the NPWS without any EMP-related interruptions or interference. According to DHS, FEMA has also conducted high-altitude EMP testing on NPWS equipment to verify that mitigation efforts are protecting these stations.
“Electromagnetic pulses, whether caused by an intentional EMP attack or a naturally occurring geomagnetic disturbance from severe space weather, could disrupt critical infrastructure such as the electrical grid, communications equipment, water and wastewater systems, and transportation modes,” Kathryn Coulter Mitchell, DHS' senior official performing the duties of the undersecretary for science and technology, said in a statement. “This could impact millions of people over large parts of the country. It is critical to protect against the potential damage an EMP event could cause.”
In a press release, DHS said that the best practices and principles outlined in the report “can be implemented by critical infrastructure owners and operators who seek to secure their assets against EMP in a similar manner to the NPWS equipment.”
When deciding how best to protect critical infrastructure and related assets from EMPs, the report says that agencies and private-sector operators should “consider the system’s architecture and design, location, geography, materials, [points of entry] that allow external EM energy penetrations and ancillary equipment.” And beyond assessing and remedying potential vulnerabilities in their systems, the report says that efforts to guard critical infrastructure from an EMP should also consider the impact that an outage would have on needed services.
“If temporary outages are not acceptable, then the most stringent protection approach should be followed,” the report says. “If system outages or time urgency are not critical, then [critical infrastructure] owners and operators can take less onerous protection approaches that are accompanied by operator interference, such as powering down and restarting the system or repairing the equipment using readily available spare parts.”
In March 2019, then-President Donald Trump issued an executive order to bolster the federal government’s resilience to EMPs. It promoted cross-government information sharing and called for agencies and critical infrastructure operators to “engage in risk-informed planning” and “prioritize research and development” needed to respond to and recover from EMPs. CISA has also worked to build long-term resiliency in the public and private sectors by helping critical-infrastructure owners and operators, participating in EMP-related testing, and identifying effective EMP mitigation technologies.
“CISA remains committed to working with our partners to implement requirements outlined in the Executive Order on Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses, which strengthens our nation’s preparedness from EMP,” Mona Harrington, the acting assistant director of CISA’s National Risk Management Center, said in a statement.
26. Facing the hard facts about the 'world class' US Navy - Responsible Statecraft
The author's bio is below.
Facing the hard facts about the 'world class' US Navy - Responsible Statecraft
responsiblestatecraft.org · by Roger Thompson · September 8, 2022
Facing the hard facts about the ‘world class’ US Navy
The state of modern defense journalism in America is a sad one indeed. For example, I give you a recent article by Kris Osborn, the defense editor for The National Interest. His recent plea for more aircraft carriers for the U.S. Navy reminded me of the late Tom Clancy’s jingoistic boasts about the American military.
Nothing in the world can project power like a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, which brings the ability to launch massive offensive strikes from waters offshore, holding targets and enemies at risk. This proven reality explains why the mere forward presence of a carrier can have a “calming” type of deterrent effect. At times, the Navy and Pentagon’s leaders have called for eleven carriers, and have most recently asked for twelve.
This is nonsense. As I pointed out in my 2007 book, Lessons Not Learned: The U.S. Navy’s Status Quo Culture, in war games and mock attacks from 1966 to 2006 — a forty year span — submarines and surface warships from the Soviet Union and Russia, China, Chile, Holland, Australia, and Canada theoretically destroyed the carriers Saratoga, Independence, John F. Kennedy, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Forrestal, Constellation, Carl Vinson, Theodore Roosevelt, Kitty Hawk and Abraham Lincoln.
Nor is this ancient history. More recent articles, a vast departure from Osborn’s work, refer to the continuing problem of the Navy’s inability to protect its high-cost core assets. There are also credible reports that aircraft carriers are becoming vulnerable to China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles and other systems. Part of the problem is also the Navy’s poor anti-submarine systems (ASW) systems. This all must be given much more serious attention by anyone who thinks everything’s just fine.
But the problems the Navy has today go way beyond the utility of its carriers. Leadership has come under increasing scrutiny. A scathing article called “The United States Navy — Feet of Clay,” published in The Naval Review in 2004 by then-Lieutenant Commander Aidan Talbott of the Royal Navy, hit the nail on the head, and even though it is an older account, recent Navy disasters such as the tragedies involving the McCain, Fitzgerald, and the Bonhomme Richard amphibious vessel, which was destroyed in port last year by fire, bear many of his criticisms out.
While a National Transportation Safety Board investigation found a lack of training and oversight to blame for the 2017 McCain accident that left 10 dead, the Navy put the onus squarely on the ship’s leadership. A Navy investigation into the 2017 Fitzgerald collision, which drowned seven sailors, found sweeping personnel problems dating back years. The chaotic response to the Bonhomme Richard fire was due to dysfunctional communication in the chain of command, according to that investigation.
In 2005, Lt. Commander Talbott, who did a two-year tour with the U.S. Navy, described to me the service as “cumbersome, vastly overmanned, stolidly managed, with massive institutional inertia and hobbled by internal and external politics.” He went on to say that he endured “monstrous levels of inefficiency in many respects” during his time there.
Recent research on Navy leadership suggests that the situation as bad, if not worse, as in 2004. According to a 2021 survey of current and retired Navy officers: “Concern within the Navy runs so high that, when asked whether incidents such as the two destroyer collisions in the Pacific (McCain and Fitzgerald), the surrender of a small craft to the IRGC (Iranian Republican Guard Corps) in the Arabian Gulf, the burning of the Bonhomme Richard, and other incidents were part of a broader cultural or leadership problem in the Navy, 94% of interviewees responded ‘yes.’”
Critics bemoan a promotion system that requires in part a perfect record that is attainable through averting risks, and working the right angles, and people. This promotion system has to go if the USN is to become a truly professional navy, and to start designing and building great ships again. The problems plaguing the Zumwalt-class destroyer and Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) programs, for example, represent moral as well as material failures.
According to former Secretary of the Navy John Lehman, the Zumwalt-class simply tried to incorporate too much unproven technology in a new ship: “Cramming a lot of new technologies into one platform was just crazy—it was doomed from the start.” The LCS, better known as “Little Crappy Ships” has had many problems according to the Navy Times, specifically, “half of the Navy’s littoral combat ship fleet is suffering from structural defects that have led to hull cracks on several vessels, limiting the speed and sea states in which some ships can operate.” The Navy is already decommissioning these ships after less than a decade of use.
According to Mark Thompson of the Project on Government Oversight, “as the Zumwalt class winds down — the last of the three ships is slated to be delivered in 2020 — taxpayers can view, to their horror, the arc of the program from beginning to (nearly) end. The vessels represent a case study of a program run without adult leadership. Its contractors and admirals were blinded by ambition that had little to do with providing the fleet with enough hulls to patrol the world’s oceans, but everything to do with maritime hubris that didn’t pan out.”
Like Commander Talbott, I am a fan of the Navy and want to see it perform to its true potential, but this won’t happen unless significant changes take place. In addition to reforming the personnel system, it has to get over its fixation on aircraft carriers, which are obscenely expensive, and use the resulting savings and existing talent to evolve into a 21st Century fighting organization with new tactics, new platforms, and better leadership. More aircraft carriers is not the solution.
Commander Talbott concluded in his article “The United States Navy — Feet of Clay,” by saying:
“The USN clearly can be a world class organisation in terms of output — their ability to surge and support extensive assets globally and to put ‘warheads on foreheads’ is unmatched but they are emphatically not world class in terms of the human, financial and managerial resources consumed to achieve that output. We cannot divest ourselves of the inextricable levels of support we now rely on from the US but we must always be acutely conscious of what the US cannot do as much as what it can. On balance, we sure would want to be with them rather than against them but we must remain in this partnership with our eyes wide open and a healthy awareness of where the strengths and the weaknesses lie of our Number One friend and ally.”
I would like to be just as optimistic as Commander Talbott was, but it is difficult to see this organization continue to blunder and make mistakes that go uncorrected decade after decade. I fear that the only way to get the USN to change is to lose a war against China over Taiwan, which now seems increasingly likely as each day goes by since last month’s visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island that Beijing insists is part of China.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy now has more ships than the USN does, and although more does not always mean better, the numerical difference can be a warning to people in Washington and media editors like Kris Osborn that the USN’s era of global maritime dominance is rapidly coming to an end. More probably, the warning signs will be ignored, and the boosterism of writers like Osborn will push us closer to the catastrophe that none of us want to happen.
Roger Thompson is a research fellow at Dalhousie University’s Centre for the Study of Security and Development and the author of Lessons Not Learned: The U.S. Navy’s Status Quo Culture. He is also a former military researcher at Canada’s National Defence Headquarters.
responsiblestatecraft.org · by Roger Thompson · September 8, 2022
27. ‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures
‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures
Military pro-war bloggers with frontline contacts offer rare insight into Russia’s performance on ground
The Guardian · by Pjotr Sauer · September 8, 2022
“The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia,” Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. “We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time.”
Girkin, a former Russian intelligence colonel who became a commander of the pro-Russian separatist forces in 2014, is arguably the most prominent voice within an increasingly loud and angry group of ultra-nationalist and pro-war bloggers who have taken to berating the Kremlin for its failure to achieve its tactical objectives as the fighting in Ukraine has entered its seventh month.
After Ukraine’s latest counter-offensive in the south and the north-east of the country, these bloggers – who have so far been granted a public platform denied to many – have intensified their criticism of the Kremlin, slamming the army’s inadequate performance in the war and urging Vladimir Putin to declare a full-scale mobilisation.
Antony Blinken makes surprise visit to Kyiv promising $2bn military aid
Read more
“They are certainly getting angrier, and with good and obvious reason, especially as the gap between the official line and the reality on the ground widens,” said Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian security affairs.
On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a surprise counterattack near the country’s second biggest city of Kharkiv, encircling Balakliia, a strategically important town of 27,000 people, and recapturing several smaller settlements.
The military bloggers, who are often former veterans with contacts on the frontlines, also provide a rare insight into Russia’s real performance on the ground. “Some are very dubious sources but there are also those – like Girkin – who know what they’re talking about and clearly are in touch with people at the front or who otherwise are in the know,” said Galeotti.
The Russian government has not published its own losses since 25 March, when it gave a total of 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded. Western intelligence believes as many as 80,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of the war.
Instead, since the onset of the war, the Russian defence ministry has repeatedly issued improbable statements about its successes on the battlefield, boasting of having destroyed more than 40 western-made Himars rocket launchers and claiming to have decimated the Ukrainian air force.
State television, the most popular source of information in Russia, similarly continues to paint a rosy picture of Russian successes in Ukraine. In a combative speech on Wednesday, Putin reiterated that Russia had “lost nothing” in a war he said was going according to plan.
However, that optimism was not shared by others as Ukraine encircled Balakliia on Wednesday, pulling off what has already been labelled as one of the war’s most impressive strategic moves and hailed as “good news” by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Wednesday night.
“It must be stated that in Balakliia, the armed forces of Ukraine have completely outplayed our command,” Starshe Eddy, a popular pro-war Russian blogger, wrote on his Telegram channel.
Starshe Eddy’s audience on Telegram, like those of other war bloggers, has ballooned since the start of the invasion, from about 28,000 in January to 500,000, according to Tgstat, an analytics service for Telegram channels.
Pointing to Russia’s non-reaction to the Ukrainian offensive, Aleksandr Kots, a pro-Kremlin war journalist, accused the authorities on Wednesday of hiding “bad news” about the situation on the ground. “We need to start doing something about the system where our leadership doesn’t like to talk about bad news, and their subordinates don’t want to upset their bosses,” he said.
Ukraine’s latest offensive has also led to renewed calls from the far-right nationalist for a general mobilisation, a move Putin has so far opted against despite growing signs the Russian army is facing an acute lack of new soldiers.
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“Mobilisation is, let’s put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat,” wrote Andrei Morozov, another popular blogger.
For now, the Kremlin seems to be willing to accept the criticism coming its way from the band of pro-war bloggers. Girkin has repeatedly called for the firing of the defence minister and close Putin ally, Sergei Shoigu, urging in one post for the minister to be executed by firing squad.
The Kremlin’s tolerance of the bloggers’ comments is remarkable, experts say, given the newly introduced laws under which criticism of the war can be punished with up to 15 years in jail.
Pavel Luzhin, an independent Russian military expert, believes the bloggers are left “untouched” because they provide an outlet for a section of the Russian population to vent their anger about the failures in Ukraine. “The Kremlin is too scared to simply ignore the nationalist section of the population,” Luzhin said, adding that some of the bloggers were probably operating with the tacit approval of the security services.
Galeotti similarly said “many” of the bloggers were “connected to or protected by figures within the military or security agencies”.
For now, Girkin and other military bloggers are likely to keep up their daily criticism as Putin’s bloody military offensive has stalled in Ukraine. “Don’t EXPECT ANY BIG WINS in the next 2–3 months,” he wrote in a post this week. “If our Kremlin elders do not change their tactics, we will be seeing catastrophic defeats by then.”
Girkin declined to comment for this article, saying he considered the western media “his enemy”.
The Guardian · by Pjotr Sauer · September 8, 2022
28.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
| 
