THE TTALK QUOTES


On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC  Tel: 202-559-9316
No.6 of 2020
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 20 20

Click HERE for the January 21 quote from Sajid Javid, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer
BREXIT IN PERSPECTIVE

 "It's the biggest event in British history, certainly since the end of World War II in terms of significance

Nile Gardiner
January 28, 2020
AN APPRECIATION
GBD is grateful to those who helped make possible the event, Beyond Brexit , that gave rise to today’s quote. We especially wish to thank

The National Pork Producers Council
for Sponsoring this event,

The Information Technology Industry Council
for Supporting this event, and

Corning
for being a Friend of the Event.
CONTEXT
On January 31, the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union came to an end. The precise hour varied depending upon one’s location. From east to west, it happened at 12 midnight in Brussels, at 11 p.m. in London, at 6 p.m. in Washington, D.C., and at 3 p.m. in the afternoon here in Portland, Oregon. In fact, it is quite surprising how very much has happened on the EU front in just the past couple of days. We shall get to many of those developments in due course. 

Today’s featured quote, however, and those we expect to publish in the coming days were all things said at Beyond Brexit , the January 28 Global Business Dialogue event that looked ahead to some of what might be anticipated from this major, global development.  Nile Gardiner was the first panelist to speak. Mr. Gardiner is the Head of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation and someone who has been a strong supporter of Brexit. Today’s featured quote underscores the significance he attaches to Britain’s leaving the UK. His remarks, however, also included a number of practical observations. Here are some of those:

On the Transition
The transition, which was negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May , will last until the end of 2020. During this time, the UK remains part of the EU single market and the EU customs union. And so Britain does not regain full control of its borders, [its] trade policy, and a number of other areas actually until the end of 2020 … .

On a UK-EU Trade Agreement in 2020
The EU side is already suggesting that a deal is impossible in the space of just a few months. On the British side, they are saying that they are determined to get a deal done this year. Otherwise, we will see a no-deal Brexit at the end of this year.  And I do think a no-deal Brexit is a very significant possibility, not least because the British government has signed into law legislation which stipulates that the United Kingdom must end the transition period by the end of 2020.

Anticipating A U.S.-UK Trade Agreement
[A] U.S.-UK Free Trade Agreement is a very top priority for the British Government. And, I think, the goal for the British government certainly is to have a trade agreement, negotiated and agreed and signed-off in the course of 2020 . That is the goal. It’s an ambitious goal. But I do think it’s a realistic goal because you have on both sides of the Atlantic administrations who are very dedicated to seeing a free-trade deal put in place, and after all, there are a million U.S. jobs dependent upon British companies and vice versa. There is over $5 trillion of U.S. corporate wealth in the United Kingdom, according to the Congressional Research Service. The United States has a huge economic interest in a successful free trade deal.

Trade and the Future of the UK
[T]he British approach is based on, really, Britain as a great free-trading nation.  … The position of the Brexiteers is for a great, free-trading nation to reemerge. … Some Brexiteers talk about the UK as being a sort of Singapore on Thames , as a country that will be shining beacon for economic liberty and freedom. 
COMMENT
We have left out a lot, but all of what Mr. Gardiner said at the GBD event on January 28 is available on the GBD website. (Please see the links below.) It seems clear to us that the essence of Prime Minister Johnson ’s strategy is to convince the European Union that he is prepared to accept a no-deal Brexit in preference to either an extension of the transition or an arrangement that ties the UK into the regulatory schemes of the EU. Several headlines of the last few days have carried that message. On January 31, for example, just an hour before the UK’s membership in the EU expired, The Daily Telegraph published a story with the headline “Boris Johnson plans to impose full customs and border checks on European goods.” 

Then yesterday, there was this headline from the same paper: “Britain will not accept EU rules to get a trade deal, says Boris Johnson.”

***

Sunday's Super Bowl contest in Miami was effectively over by the time the two-minute warning sounded. By then, it was clear that the Kansas City Chiefs were going to win, and by the convincing score of 31 to 20.  Still at the start of the fourth quarter they were down by 10 points, 10 to 20. So a lot happened in a short period. 

Moreover, if you watched more than one or two games this past year, you know that the last two minutes can be decisive. Our point? If a lot can happen in 15 or even 2 minutes, certainly the same is true for eleven months. Our hope is that the EU and the UK can reach a constructive trade agreement during this current transition period. And, candidly, we do not see why the European Union should wish to demand more from the UK than it does from other trading partners, especially at the cost of no-deal Brexit.

As for a UK trade agreement with the United States, Nile Gardiner pointed out that the political clock in the U.S. dictates action now, as the Trump administration clearly favors such an agreement and the next one may not. Will these different negotiations – the UK and the U.S., the UK and the EU etc. – hamper one another? Certainly, they will engender frustrations for all concerned in the months ahead, but they could well prove more complementary than anyone at the moment is prepared to admit. 
SOURCES & LINKS
A Big Event is a link to GBD’s transcript of Nile Gardiner’s opening remarks at the GBD event Beyond Brexit , which was held at the National Press Club in Washington on January 28. This was the source for today’s featured quote as well as several of the others.

Beyond Brexit is a link to the page of the GBD website with materials from this event, including audio recordings.

Boris Says “No” to Accepting EU Rules is a link to the story in The Daily Telegraph on this development.

Full Border Checks takes you to the January 28 Telegraph story on this development. 
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