The final quarter of 2023 saw the most significant easing of financial conditions in several decades (inflation down, rates down, stocks up, dollar weaker), and most economists now believe the U.S. will avoid a recession — a far more optimistic outlook than was the consensus a year ago. For entrepreneurs who have been grinding out the downturn and waiting for a lifting of the clouds, this seems to finally be it. Like most downturns, this one has seen a sharp adjustment to business models and expense levels to achieve sustainability in new market conditions. The new normal will feel more like 2010-2014 than the more ebullient 2018-2021. The venture market is in the midst of a major correction, with exit values at their lowest levels in 10 years and new funds raised at their lowest levels in 6 years. Like most downturns, this one has seen accelerated innovation in certain areas, most notably in artificial intelligence, which has impacted almost every sector of the tech world and holds out the promise of significant productivity gains across the economy. We are optimistic about what innovation and better economic conditions will bring in 2024. We are investing actively and just closed our 10th venture fund at $650M to continue to work with top entrepreneurs seeking to build the industry-changing companies of tomorrow.
|