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A Lifting of the Clouds

The final quarter of 2023 saw the most significant easing of financial conditions in several decades (inflation down, rates down, stocks up, dollar weaker), and most economists now believe the U.S. will avoid a recession — a far more optimistic outlook than was the consensus a year ago. For entrepreneurs who have been grinding out the downturn and waiting for a lifting of the clouds, this seems to finally be it. Like most downturns, this one has seen a sharp adjustment to business models and expense levels to achieve sustainability in new market conditions. The new normal will feel more like 2010-2014 than the more ebullient 2018-2021. The venture market is in the midst of a major correction, with exit values at their lowest levels in 10 years and new funds raised at their lowest levels in 6 years. Like most downturns, this one has seen accelerated innovation in certain areas, most notably in artificial intelligence, which has impacted almost every sector of the tech world and holds out the promise of significant productivity gains across the economy. We are optimistic about what innovation and better economic conditions will bring in 2024. We are investing actively and just closed our 10th venture fund at $650M to continue to work with top entrepreneurs seeking to build the industry-changing companies of tomorrow.

 
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We Predict
1

GPT5 will be surpassed in GenAI by models built for Physical AI applied to the real world.

2

Image and video diffusion models will become the primary disinformation weapon of choice.

3

Apple is about to prove owning the data & device will enable it to become the most important GenAI company on the planet.

4

The bust of the modern data stack will lead to major consolidation and rebirth of unified data platforms.

5

A new generation of LLM-powered personal finance superapps will emerge.

6

Open Banking will finally become a reality by officially becoming law.

See more of our 2024 Infrastructure Tech Predictions here.

 
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New to the Team

Meet our newest tech team member, Morgan Hitzig. We’re excited to welcome her on board. Learn what motivates her below.

Morgan Hitzig

Morgan Hitzig  |  Vice President

My strong desire to unleash the untapped potential that lies at the intersection between technology and civic mindedness, which could play a huge role in knitting the foundation of American democracy back together while creating meaningful and scalable economic impact.

 
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We Predict

Gene Farrell

Vanilla

What were you most proud of in 2023?

The speed at which we have been able to build and mature our software platform has demonstrated product market fit — our revenue jumped from $0 to $5M in our first year. Our bookings include a large enterprise asset management firm and a leading wirehouse, which has given us a chance to showcase Vanilla’s potential impact for clients who have a high bar for security and compliance.

Jason Zintak

6sense

With GenAI being the hottest topic of 2023, how is 6sense making use of GenAI?

Our GenAI-based Conversational Email product is a customer favorite, which we launched 6 months ago. The game-changing technology functions as an “AI assistant” and engages buyers with personalized, contextually relevant emails every step of the way, boosting efficiency, buyer and employee satisfaction, conversion rates, and booked meetings. We generate well over 10% of our pipeline autonomously and expect that to increase in the coming year.

Balan Ayyar

percipient.ai

Advice to founders focused on defense:

New technology is seldom enough to overcome the challenges of enterprise adoption in defense. Focus on the mission your software addresses and be willing to adapt, integrate, align, and solve challenges that emerge to keep the flame of transformation burning. Do not have unrealistic timelines with your investors. Instead, remind them how valuable the market will be when you win.

Andy Byron

Astronomer

Best advice:

Hard work beats talent that does not work hard, so outwork everyone!

Advice for early-stage CEOs in 2024:

Define your Ideal Customer Profile and continue to iterate this as the product and market moves.

Biggest learning in 2023:

Put all the focus and effort into the small list of things (2-3 max) that will move the business seismically.

 
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On the Mic The Outer Join
Tuomas Artman

Building Better Software that Users Love

Tuomas Artman  |  Co-Founder at Linear

Listen
Ekanth Sethuramalingam

Building New Primitives for Large Scale Systems

Ekanth Sethuramalingam  |  Software Engineer at Notion

Listen
Abby Kearns

An Intentional Approach to Open-Source

Abby Kearns  |  Former CTO at Puppet Labs

Listen
Want more? Subscribe here: Apple Podcast Spotify Amazon Music Pocket Casts Pocket Casts
 
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ICYMI: Portfolio News
6sense

6sense was recognized as a Leader in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for ABM Platforms while CEO Jason Zintak was named one of the Most Exceptional Entrepreneurs of 2023 at Goldman Sachs’ Builders and Innovators Summit.

Business Wire  |  Yahoo Finance

Forbes America's Best Startup Employers

Altruist, Astranis, Astronomer, and Nightfall AI were all included in Forbes' "America’s Best Startup Employers" list.

Forbes

Altruist

Altruist became the first all-in-one self-clearing custodian with the launch of Altruist Clearing. It also acquired Shareholders Service Group (SSG), giving them a total of 10% market share of total RIA firms.

Wealth Management  |  Barron's

Astranis

Astranis completed a major milestone with the launch of their first MicroGEO satellite, Arcturus, on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy.

Via Satellite

Astronomer

Astronomer signed a strategic partnership with Microsoft to become the default native managed Airflow service on the Azure cloud.

PR Newswire

Atom Computing

Atom Computing announced the largest quantum computer in the world, with over 1,000 qubits.

Ars Technica

 
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We Recommend...
Huberman Lab

Huberman Lab: What Alcohol Does to Your Body, Brain & Health

— Ethan Batraski

News Items

News Items, by John Ellis. What’s most interesting, important or both.

— Nick Beim

 
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2023 Moments
 
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Cheers to 2023
Brian Ascher

Brian Ascher

@vcsurferdad

Ethan Batraski

Ethan Batraski

@ethanjb

Nick Beim

Nick Beim

@nickbeim

Morgan Hitzig

Morgan Hitzig

​​@mhitzig

Sharah Marwah

Sharah Marwah

 

Ganesh Srinivasan

Ganesh Srinivasan

​​@gan3sh

Mike Tyrrell

Mike Tyrrell

​​@miketyrrell

 
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