THE NOVACK TEAM

MONTHLY MARKET WATCH

APRIL 2026

WHERE THE MARKET IS RIGHT NOW

April saw continued engagement across the market, with both contract activity and new listings increasing from March and coming in slightly above April 2025.

Inventory has improved from winter lows but remains roughly 8% below the same time last year—something buyers can feel in real time.

In the luxury segment, 142 contracts were signed above $4M in April. While down from March’s 163, that follows a particularly strong month and remains well above last year’s 117—pointing to steady absorption rather than a short-term spike.

HOW DEMAND IS ACTUALLY EXPRESSING ITSELF

What feels more important than the raw numbers is how demand is behaving.

Transactions are happening when pricing, product, and positioning align—and when they do, deals move forward with conviction. When they don’t, activity slows—sometimes meaningfully.

Even at the top of the market, buyers are negotiating and anchoring closely to their sense of value. Demand is clearly present—but highly disciplined in how it engages.

HOW BUYERS ARE NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY

What also stands out is how buyers are processing uncertainty more broadly.

There continues to be discussion around a potential pied-à-terre tax, but at this stage it remains conceptual, with no finalized structure or timing, and would likely take the form of an annual surcharge. In practice, it would be complex to implement and is expected to face meaningful opposition.

In live negotiations, it is part of the conversation—but still too hypothetical to impact pricing in a consistent or quantifiable way.

More broadly, buyers are not stepping back—they are simply becoming more deliberate. The focus is less on reacting to potential policy changes and more on isolating opportunities that clearly fit what they’re looking for.

This is a market defined by precision—where conviction shows up when the pieces align.