Good evening, folks! Between relentless rainfall and subfreezing temperatures, the start of this growing season has been anything but ideal. According to data from the Ag Weather Center, Kentucky averaged 7.56 inches of rain last week. However, rainfall totals varied widely across Kentucky, ranging from a staggering 15.87 inches at the Marshall County Mesonet station to a mere 0.63 inches in Letcher County. As shown in the map below, much of Western and Central Kentucky exceeded 10 inches of rainfall (courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet).

The recent rainfall has been truly historic, resulting in extensive flooding across Kentucky, with impacts expected to persist in the weeks ahead. Major and moderate river flooding remains a concern at numerous locations statewide. For detailed information specific to your area, follow this link to access a clickable map featuring river gauges across Kentucky, including observed and forecast flood stages.

Looking at the data, most rivers in Central Kentucky have already reached their crest and are beginning to recede, while many Western Kentucky are projected to crest within the next week. The graphic below from the National Weather Service in Paducah provides an excellent summary of this information. However, it’s important to note that these are forecasted crests—it will take time for the rivers to fully recede. In the Purchase area, current forecasts indicate the Ohio River at Cairo and Mississippi River at Hickman will remain in moderate flood stage through April 22^nd.

Flooding has been the primary concern recently, but last week's severe weather showcased the overwhelming power of Mother Nature. The most intense activity unfolded on Wednesday evening and continued into the night, as the atmosphere became perfectly primed for a major severe weather outbreak. This culminated in a potent line of storms moving through the region, featuring numerous embedded circulations that triggered an array of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. The included image highlights the moment this line passed through Western Kentucky, as captured by the Weather Alert App (download details below). On the map, red polygons represent tornado warnings while orange polygons indicate severe thunderstorm warnings.

Kentucky was only a small part of this large system. According to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, the National Weather Service issued a staggering 728 Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that day—making it the third highest warning count for a single day since 2011 (chart below).

Across Kentucky, the National Weather Service offices in Paducah and Louisville confirmed 13 tornadoes. Western Kentucky saw several EF-2 tornadoes with estimated peak winds of 115 mph. However, the strongest tornado was confirmed in Louisville, where peak winds were estimated at 145 mph (map below).

Adding to the challenges posed by excessive rainfall and storms, temperatures plummeted over the past couple of nights. With agriculture becoming increasingly vulnerable, the National Weather Service issued the first freeze warnings of the spring season. The Kentucky Mesonet recorded low temperatures on the morning of April 9^th in the mid-20s to mid-30s (map below). Typically, low temperatures for this time of year range in the low to mid-40s, making these readings significantly below normal—though not entirely unusual.

For additional context, I’ve included a table showing the average last freeze dates for various locations across Kentucky. While much of Western Kentucky has already passed this point, Central and Eastern Kentucky are still roughly a week or two away.

Looking ahead, once showers and storms clear the area tomorrow morning, a new weather system is anticipated to arrive early next week, on April 14th. Fortunately, neither today's system nor Monday's are expected to worsen the ongoing flooding concerns. In the meantime, frosty mornings are possible on Saturday and Sunday, but temperatures should rebound nicely, with highs climbing into the 60s and 70s by Sunday. As is often the case during spring, the lingering question remains: how long will the warmth stick around?

Shifting focus to the long-term outlooks, the forecasts are looking more promising compared to yesterday! For April 16-20, the 6-10 day outlook predicts below-normal temperatures with near-normal precipitation. Moving into the 8-14 day outlook (April 18-24), there’s a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures making a return, paired with below-normal precipitation. Looking even further ahead to the 3-4 week outlook (April 19-May 2), above-normal precipitation is expected, while temperature trends remain uncertain. What does this mean for planting in 2025? While it's been a slow start, a "glass half full" approach reveals encouraging signs: no indications of severe cold air outbreaks or heavy rainfall events ahead.

In closing, I wanted to highlight the Fire Blight Alert. This tool, developed collaboratively by UK Plant Pathologists and the Ag Center, provides guidance on the risk of infection for blooming apple and pear trees. As of the latest assessment on April 9th, the risk remains relatively low across the state. However, producers are encouraged to monitor the tool regularly for updated guidance. For more information on this topic, including access to the model and pest management strategies, follow this link.

Related News from UK and Beyond

University of Kentucky Flood-related Publications - UK Disaster Preparedness and Recovery

Pesticide Storage & River Flooding - Dr. Ric Bessin, UK Extension Entomology Specialist

The Great Floods of the Green River - Shane Holinde, Outreach Manager for Kentucky Mesonet and Kentucky Climate Center, April 10, 2025

Kentucky Forage News - April 1, 2025

Kentucky Monthly Climate Perspective on Drought and Hydrologic Conditions - April 2025

Kentucky Beef Cattle Newsletter "Off the Hoof" - Beef IRM Team, April 5, 2025

NWS Paducah Skywarn Spotter Training - Multiple dates

NWS Louisville Skywarn Spotter Training - Multiple dates (virtual)

Kentucky Weather Alert App

This ad-free app from the UK Ag Weather Center is an excellent resource for staying safe and informed. It provides daily and hourly forecasts, high-resolution radar, National Weather Service alerts sent directly to your phone, and a link to this update. Without any distracting ads, this app can act as another reliable warning source during tonight’s severe weather. Be sure to check it out by scanning or clicking the QR codes below to download the app on both iOS and Google Play platforms.