'The results of a ballot of the BMA’s junior doctor members, announced today, revealed that 98% of votes endorsed calls for industrial action, based on a turnout of 77.49%.'

Numbers can be deceiving and 2+2 can be anything you like..

Give or take there are about 132,900 doctors in the NHS.

Of that total, about 75,000 are doctors in training roles… junior doctors.

Of them; 47,692 junior doctors are members and entitled to vote in the BMA strike ballot.

Of them; 36,955 voted (77.49%) and the upshot… 36,218 voted for strike action. 

That’s about 48% of the total number of junior doctors. 

So, we might deduce over half of junior doctors don’t support strikes. 

That is not to say the strikes aren’t causing chaos in hospitals because they are. But it is not 98% of doctors involved, as a casual reader of the BMA’s announcement might conclude.

There are 53,000 hospital consultants in the NHS. The BMA said 86% of its consultant members that voted (a turnout of 71.07 per cent) have voted in favour of industrial action.

A subsequent press release by the Royal College of Surgeons let the cat out of the bag… 'votes cast'..

‘… 24,106 votes cast and 86% of those voted in favour of industrial action… 20,731…’

… that’s only about 40% of all consultants.

As I see it, the majority of doctors have not voted to strike and...

...as a result, over a million people have lost their chance to get off the waiting list, get diagnosed, get fixed up and get on with their lives.

In total 56,949 doctors out of 132,900, (42.8%) may be on strike.

What does this mean?

Democracy is fragile and easily abused? A majority isn’t always a majority, that the majority might recognise as a majority!

I can also see why HMG are content to quietly bung Trusts a wedge of cash, to keep the show on the road.

Analysis of the data has not yet suggested that excessive mortality occurs when doctors strike, it would be disingenuous to infer that the quality of care would be unaffected. Can anyone claim a patient will not suffer a clinical or emotional consequence and if not them, their families.

Writing in the Lancet in 2015, about upcoming threats to strike, Prof Nick Curzen said;

‘… can doctors really justify taking strike action to apply leverage for their own political agenda? The answer has to be no. 

… to put our patients at risk of inconvenience, discomfort, or even worse is a breach of our fundamental principles and duty of care. 

… the strike action potentially sends a trust-wrecking message of self-interest to the public, who generally have a lot of respect for their doctors.

… to deliberately affect patient care is wrong and will in my opinion, always be wrong and could well give an advantage to those who seek to erode the doctors’ power-base, which is built on the respect our patients and prospective patients have for us.’

Wise words that may be quietly spoken among the majority of doctors.

What do the public really think? A recent BMA poll headline claimed it was; 

‘… a clear indication of public sentiment about the Government’s handling of the dispute so far'.  

Err, no… not really.

The BMA asked; 'How important or unimportant do you believe it is that the Government re-opens talks with the BMA?'

The responses were worth a second look; 

Very important: 754 (43%) was the headline answer...

... well under half...

... and if you wanted to add together:

• somewhat important, 465 (27%);
• neither important nor unimportant, 201 (12%);
• somewhat unimportant, 93 (5%) and
• very unimportant: 119 (7%)…

… and you might conclude the majority 51% … ain’t that bovvered…

That might be because, although the NHS sees about 1.3m people a day... it's a minority of the population.

One of the best kept secrets in Whitehall will be HMG’s private polling on the strikes and Conservative Central Office focus groups.

They can do the numbers just like we can and they will probably conclude, as we might…

… there is still a way to go.

What will influence the end of the strikes? A calamitous event, expert opinion, political leadership or new information? 

Certainly credibility or the loss of it? 

The public have a strong sense of ‘what’s right’.

Support for the strike among doctors is not what we might think and the public seem not to have yet decided who is 'the most right'...

... and it is public opinion that will decide when it's over.

It’s all to play for.