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We chose Race 2 at the Fair Grounds on Friday, November 22, to do our second test of Claude.ai handicapping this week. It's a tough, competitive sprint with 12 entrants. Picks and analysis follow below.
Last Friday the AI picked Ethnic Soul (9/2) to win the 4th race at Woodbine and he finished second to longshot Fast and Ready (10-1), which the AI failed to identify. The top three selections by the AI finished second, third, and fourth however, and the analysis was solid. Ethnic Soul also had a wide trip compared to the winner's inside trip, and he was beaten less than a length.
We also tested AI on last Saturday’s Autumn Stakes at Woodbine, and it picked Dresden Row (2-1) to win. Dresden Row finished second behind Wicked Django (24-1), which the AI identified as a dangerous longshot.
Below is the AI analysis for the 2nd race at Fair Grounds on Friday. It’s opening day at Fair Grounds, and the Player’s Choice Handicapping Contest is on Saturday. If the picks and analysis are solid, you might want to give the AI a whirl.
Let's see what you got Claude!
FAIR GROUNDS CLAIMING SPRINT - AI ANALYSIS
Race 2, Fair Grounds, November 22, 2024
6 Furlongs | $15,000 | Claiming $5,000
Selections
1. #12 DEEP STATE (6-1) [Fair Odds: 4-1]
2. #6 MISCHIEF'S MACHINE (8-1) [Fair Odds: 5-1]
3. #9 GLENN'S JUMPER (6-1) [Fair Odds: 6-1]
4. #8 MARK THE MOOSE (10-1) [Fair Odds: 8-1]
Value Plays
1. #8 MARK THE MOOSE (10-1) - Back class, closing style fits pace
2. #10 B W P SPIRIT (12-1) - Tactical speed could get perfect trip
3. #6 MISCHIEF'S MACHINE (8-1) - Consistent in-the-money finisher
4. #7 PADDY'S HOUSE (7-2) - Class drop could wake him up
This claiming sprint features a compelling pace scenario with multiple speed elements suggesting a hotly contested pace. The presence of several proven closers and class-droppers creates interesting value opportunities across the pools.
DEEP STATE represents the day's most intriguing play, showing remarkable consistency in his recent efforts. His tactical running style should put him in a perfect position to capitalize on what projects to be a contentious pace scenario. While his recent speed figures may not dominate, his proven ability to deliver his best effort every time makes him attractive at his morning line odds versus our 4-1 fair odds assessment.
MISCHIEF'S MACHINE brings admirable consistency to the table with 17 in-the-money finishes from 33 lifetime starts. His tactical speed should allow him to track the likely speed duel, and his proven ability at this class level makes him a major threat. His competitive recent Beyers put him squarely in the mix.
GLENN'S JUMPER adds intrigue as the likely speed of the speed. The Wilson trainee has proven successful at this level multiple times, though today's pace scenario may work against him. If able to clear early, he could prove dangerous, but the presence of other speed elements makes that task challenging.
MARK THE MOOSE brings back class and a closing style that could prove potent given today's likely pace scenario. His recent form may be better than it appears on paper, and his running style suits the projected race shape perfectly.
Several others warrant consideration in this deep field. B W P SPIRIT brings tactical speed that could put him in a perfect stalking trip. PADDY'S HOUSE drops in class and lands strong rider McMahon. RIVER RAFT offers tactical ability that could prove dangerous at a price.
CONCLUSION
This claiming sprint presents multiple wagering opportunities. DEEP STATE's proven consistency and ideal running style for the pace scenario make him a solid key play, while several price horses with positive angles offer value opportunities throughout the vertical exotics.
The presence of multiple speed horses ensuring an honest pace creates possibilities for prices in all pools. Our main strategy focuses on DEEP STATE while respecting the potential of several logical closers and class-droppers in exotic wagers.
Good luck!
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