Four Weeks in a Row
The major U.S. stock indexes each posted returns exceeding 3% as investors welcomed indications of a modest easing in inflation. For the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, it was the fourth positive result in a row – the longest string of weekly gains since November 2021. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 4,280.2 for a gain of 3.3% on the year.
Although U.S. inflation remains near its highest level since the early 1980s, the latest monthly Consumer Price Index report brought some relief, which triggered a stock market rally on Wednesday. Inflation rose at an annual 8.5% rate in July, marking a slowdown from the previous month’s 9.1% figure. Falling gasoline prices were largely responsible for the decline.
Excluding the energy sector, S&P 500 companies would be posting an overall earnings decline rather than an increase for the quarterly season that’s now wrapping up. The average 299% year-over-year surge reported by energy companies made the sector the biggest earnings growth contributor among all 11 sectors, according to FactSet. Including energy, the S&P 500 was expected to record an average 6.7% earnings increase as of August 11; without that sector, earnings would shrink –3.7%.
The 8% drop in an index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility marked the index’s eighth weekly decline in a row. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) on Friday closed about 43% below a recent peak set in mid-June.
The day after the U.S. government reported a modest slowdown in consumer price inflation, a separate report showed a similar easing in suppliers’ wholesale prices. The Producer Price Index rose at a 9.8% annual rate in July – the slowest pace since October 2021, and down from 11.3% in June of this year.
A benchmark of U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed by a sizable margin for the week, moving ahead of a large-cap peer on a year-to-date basis. The Russell 2000 Index added around 5% for the week, despite pulling back sharply on Tuesday.
The price of U.S. crude oil rose, eclipsing the $90-per-barrel threshold that it had fallen below the previous week for the first time in more than five months. On Friday, oil was trading around $92 as traders weighed the prospects of higher demand this winter.
A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment rose, marking the second monthly gain since it fell in June to the lowest level in records dating to 1952. Friday’s preliminary report from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index also indicated that consumers’ future inflation expectations improved but remained elevated.
Source: John Hancock Investment Management