The Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), was created in 1979 as a Multiple Land Use Area, where people and wildlife would share the land. But as time passed, Maasai numbers increased, from an estimated 8,000 to 100,000 today. It's pushed the carrying capacity of the land while endangering the welfare of an already economically impoverished Maasai community. At the same time, tourism has grown, bringing pressures of its own, especially in the Ngorongoro Crater.
The current situation is the sum of threats from human population growth, land degradation, climate change, and the needs of a growing economy. Population growth in Tanzania is a huge challenge to development, as shown in a new report. The country's growth rate surpasses the average for Sub-Saharan Africa, with the population doubling every 20-25 years.
A study of the NCA liviestock sector by researchers Pablo Manzano and Lucas Yamat from the Basque Centre for Climate Change paint a grim picture unless changes are made. They say,
"the number of households falling into poor to destitute categories is increasing over the years," and that "the natural resource base is at its limit under the current economic structure." If changes are not made, "at least 300,000 by 2040 will be condemned to dispossession and absolute poverty or to emigration without any skills or decent job opportunities."
Periodic droughts every six years or so already result in massive die-offs. In 2017, 70% of livestock died. Climate change greatly increases the odds that this will become even worse.
The authors of the study recommend a shift into more advanced milk production and education on all levels. The report says the importance of education "seems to have been completely ignored, with lack of educational facilities in the district that enable professional diversification."
The best way forward is (a) improving existing livestock practices by reducing herd size while increasing production, and (b) a massive increase in education, which will help reduce population growth.
If Tanzania can open a $300 million cigarette factory to help tobacco farmers, only to increase the country's long term healthcare burden, it can certainly invest in these as well.
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